Garner tweets on what he was told was latest UMR poll result

Written By: - Date published: 5:04 pm, September 27th, 2013 - 100 comments
Categories: labour - Tags:

Just a short post and a song for Friday afternoon.  Duncan Garner has tweeted the results of a UMR poll.

Just been told that UMR poll has Nats 39, Lab 36, Green 14, NZF 5.1%. Not sure if it’s out yet. Internal presentation yday.

And the most appropriate song I could think of …

Of course it is early days and there is a lot of work to do.  But things look promising.

100 comments on “Garner tweets on what he was told was latest UMR poll result ”

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  1. Jenny Kirk 1
    27 September 2013 at 5:14 pm

    Yep – its far too soon, Mickey. But good for morale. We’ve got a long course to sail yet – we don’t want a last-minute Oracle ! (scuse flights of fancy – couldn’t help myself)

    • Tangee 1.1
      27 September 2013 at 9:47 pm

      At least the polls are a bit consistent in that labour is on the rise. and now it is to maintain or grow that increase

  2. Chooky 2
    27 September 2013 at 5:22 pm

    Fantastic!…and great song!!!!

    ….Go Cunliffe Team NZ!!!!

  3. Macro 3
    27 September 2013 at 5:26 pm

    Then again there is BB King at the White House
    Seems appropriate for some 😉
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLh-8HkvmyM
    “The Thrill is Gone.” hehehe

    • Chooky 3.1
      27 September 2013 at 6:18 pm

      @Macro….how cool is that ? Great music!…(the cat loved it too )

      Yup!… bye bye Nact and Key.!!!….there is a new man Cunliffe leading a new Labour Party to a great victory in 2014!!! …..with the Greens!!!

  4. karol 4
    27 September 2013 at 5:27 pm

    I never pin any hopes on polls. But it’s useful PR.

    And great song for this Friday PM.

  5. SDCLFC7 5
    27 September 2013 at 5:31 pm

    There’s 6 points missing. Seems a lot for Mana, Utd; Conservative; Maori; Act but then again maybe not (I’m just surprised by the drop in National)
    While this is good to see I really want to see us getting up around 38/39.
    I also think the increase has got to come at the expense of the Greens. We’re not going to get 40 points while the Greens are polling at 12+

    • Matthew Whitehead 5.1
      27 September 2013 at 5:46 pm

      Labour doesn’t need to eat into the greens to make an extra 3%, they can keep on chipping away at people who didn’t vote the last few elections, and so can the Greens. Ideally I’d like to see a really strong majority with just those two parties, I don’t particularly care the mix so long as they can play nice together.

    • karol 5.2
      27 September 2013 at 5:51 pm

      There’s only about 6% missing.
      Lab-Green 50%.
      Nats 39%
      NZF 5.1%
      = 94%

      • Vagabundo 5.2.1
        27 September 2013 at 6:03 pm

        Garner didn’t mention ACT, Maori, UF, Mana and the undecideds + parties out of parliament.

        I’d imagine the coalition partners probably got about 4% combined, and probably 1% each to Mana and the Conservatives.

        • Matthew Whitehead 5.2.1.1
          28 September 2013 at 12:15 am

          Actually it’s been more like 3% conservatives, 1% to each of the other parties in recent polls, but that may be because the recent ones have been the more right-wing polls.

          • Vagabundo 5.2.1.1.1
            28 September 2013 at 2:37 pm

            Where’s the 3% for the Conservatives coming from? I just checked the most recent Herald, CB and RM polls, and all three of them have the Conservatives at around 1%. Specifically, the Herald poll had them at exactly 1%, CB had them at 0.8% and RM had them at 1.5%.

      • ScottGN 5.2.2
        27 September 2013 at 6:06 pm

        Balance made up of the minnows, Mana, Maori Party. ACT, UFP and Conservatives. Seems about right. Best thing though is Nats below 40%.

      • David H 5.2.3
        28 September 2013 at 9:14 am

        They must be saving the 6% for the convivial cup of tea.

        • miravox 5.2.3.1
          28 September 2013 at 9:53 am

          Key has already had one with The Hair, hasn’t he? Or was that coffee? – maybe the tea is tainted

    • Saarbo 5.3
      27 September 2013 at 6:36 pm

      Well its an exciting trend, Im not surprised though as I was aware of many people who were sick and tired of national’s lies, they just wanted a decent alternative Labour….. and its arrived.

  6. Sosoo 6
    27 September 2013 at 5:33 pm

    No wonder Hootoff was so down in the dumps yesterday. The pig party must know from internal polling that things have turned south.

    Wait until Cunliffe is whipping Key on a regular basis in parliament.

    • North 6.1
      28 September 2013 at 12:06 am

      Wait for March/April when Sir Kiwi Kim Dotcom’s gonna really stick it up the simpering Balmoral Bitch we call PM. Who calls Balmoral “a magnificent ‘property’ “. Yokel !!!

      I’m punting here, no links, no authority, just a feeling. ShonKey Python’s seen the writing on the wall already. (KDC above). He’s not gonna hang around to lose. He’s bored. Democracy’s a bitch when you get into the detail. Those New Zealanders seem not to be lying down to a smile anymore. Much more interesting to pick up the knighthood and cruise around being a gauche proslytiser for Her Madge.

      Such is the cheapness of the construct we know as The Honourable ShonKey Python the Earl of Arselick.

      Judge Judy sits and knits.

    • North 6.2
      28 September 2013 at 12:11 am

      Wait for March/April when Sir Kiwi Kim Dotcom’s gonna really stick it up the simpering Balmoral Bitch we call PM. Who calls Balmoral “a magnificent ‘property’ “. Yokel !!!

      I’m punting here, no links, no authority, just a feeling. ShonKey Python’s seen the writing on the wall already. (KDC above and Cunliffe of course). He’s not gonna hang around to lose. He’s bored. Democracy’s a bitch when you get into the confusing detail of it. Those New Zealanders seem not to be lying down to a smile anymore. Much more interesting to pick up the knighthood and cruise around being a gauche proslytiser for Her Madge.

      Such is the cheapness of the construct we know as The Right Honourable ShonKey Python Earl of Arselick.

      Judge Judy sits and knits.

    • David H 6.3
      28 September 2013 at 9:17 am

      “Wait until Cunliffe is whipping Key on a regular basis in parliament.”

      Then I think there will be a brief flurry of activity, and the New Nat leader will emerge with all the fanfare and excitement of a visit to the dentists.

  7. Blue 7
    27 September 2013 at 5:59 pm

    Makes you want to cry thinking about how much time Labour wasted on Shearer.

  8. Steve 8
    27 September 2013 at 5:59 pm

    This is great news and demonstrates why the right were so vehemently anti-Cunliffe.

    With the H – bro’s scoring a couple of home goals this news rounds off a very good week.

    No time for complacency though – expect the full smoke and mirror set to be deployed by team Slippery.

    • karol 8.1
      27 September 2013 at 6:02 pm

      No time for complacency though – expect the full smoke and mirror set to be deployed by team Slippery.

      Yep. Shonkey’s been off on a refresher course on that.

  9. Linz 9
    27 September 2013 at 10:23 pm

    iPredict:
    There will be a Labour Prime Minister after the 2014 General Election
    Probability: 50.0% ( up 0.02%)

    There will be a National Prime Minister after the 2014 General Election
    Probability : 49.1% (down 4.77%)

    Have a very nice weekend everybody.

    • jaymam 9.1
      28 September 2013 at 1:13 pm

      Yeah I used to be impressed by Ipredict. But if you look at the actual bets for 2014 Nat PM, most of the fluctuation is caused by bets of a few dollars. I could throw a few dollars away to influence Ipredict graphs. But I won’t.

  10. ak 10
    27 September 2013 at 10:51 pm

    At eight nil ahead, it was simply inconceivable that even superior financial resources could scupper the proud kiwis’ march to victory……

    No rest yet, brothers and sisters. Crush every filthy Orewa One derivative (and there’ll be plenty) at birth: with all the venom it deserves. Then pound those pavements to the sun like there’s no tomorrow.

    Grab your one chance. Hammer the stake home, then join progressive history. For your and my beautiful wee ones.

  11. xtasy 11
    28 September 2013 at 12:50 am

    Can we “garner” Garner a bit more to put him on the spit for a nice grilling? I would love to see his station suffer immensely under a new public broadcasting policy to be launched by a new Labour led government, which will be so overdue. The Nats have destroyed all sensible quality media in this country and seized on it to make the gutted remnants their propaganda mouthpieces!

    Is Garner waking up, or desperate to calm the dissent and “time they are a changin?”. Is he preparing to get employment in future public broadcasting.

    Anyway, getting to his poll tweeting, this sounds very interesting, and I wish it was true!!!

    That is what we need, a real “time they are a changin”!

    But to all now so excited Labourites, do NOT get over excited, the rise in the polls was to be expected. You must work on keeping the momentum going, full steam, and you must do all now, to HAMMER OUT the smart policies this country is “hungry” for!!!

    We cannot just rely on Kiwi Build, on that Power plan, and a bit here and there, more is needed, a total GAME CHANGER! Future policies, in economic development, science, research, trade, labour, local body and regional development, new, more sustainable and progressive energy policies, public transport expansion, environmental safeguarding, immigration, and do NOT forget, policies for the socially disadvantaged, please, which I fear, will once again be overlooked!

    Policy is the decisionmaker, not just much talk and a “war” on the goverment, get into POLICY, and that means a real PLAN for NZ, a future for ALL, and to get us AHEAD, not stuck and backward, thanks, I will celebrate with all of you, when we get this, best of luck anyway!

    I will continue to vote Green, as that is the better choice for me, but we must ALL work together, and WILL work together!

    • Dem Young Sconies 11.1
      28 September 2013 at 7:08 am

      +1

      This really is a strong mandate from the electorate for the complete repudiation of neo-liberalism. The 10% should fear the coming storm.
      We’re coming for ya!
      and yes, firm media control must be in the mix to end right wing bias.
      Goodbye Garner, goodbye Gower, goodbye Fairfax, goodbye Murdock.

      Nationalisation without compensation for the public good will be the call
      Banks, supermarkets, construction, energy generation & distribution, media, and other significant industries.

      It’s time for Cunliffe to get bold!

      Kiwibuild needs to be bolder, bigger, and be 100% State house builds
      NZ Power should be full, completely integrated nationalisation, not a half-way house – return to the Energy Board.
      The living wage is for all
      Full employment
      Abolish the GST
      Scrap benefits and replace them with the Universal Basic Income
      Set it at the living wage (so it becomes the defacto minimum wage)
      No more marginalisation of the most vulnerable in our society
      No income tax on the UBI – positive income tax kicks in from this point
      Set flat tax rate on income above UBI at 49%
      Align corporate and trust rates to ensure no rorts.
      Capital gains tax
      Reintroduce duty on imported goods
      Set-up a 100% State owned manufacturing industry
      Set-up a State construction & apprentaship scheme to power the State house build
      Tax private land
      Tax financial transactions
      Tax carbon pollutants
      Tax sugar & fat – and outlaw corporate fast food & drink
      Use the tobacco control model for alcohol, sugar, fat & caffeine.
      Free education and the UBI for students
      Abolish National standards, and close all non-State schools
      Increase the size of the State to improve the services it delivers, and to ensure full employment
      Implement a high-tech carbon neutral economy
      End ruminant farming immediately – cull all stock
      Ban the use of nitrates and other agricultural poisons
      End all mining, drilling & fracking
      Stop all road building and invest heavily in 21st century public transport solutions
      Phase out the use of private vehicles, once public transport can meet demand
      Try slippery and his cronies for the treason they have committed against the people
      Outlaw political groups of the far right

      Exciting times 🙂

      • karol 11.1.1
        28 September 2013 at 7:23 am

        love your list.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1.2
        28 September 2013 at 8:37 am

        The Local Government Rating Act 2002.
        7(1): All land is rateable.

        Would you really close all Montessori and Steiner schools?

        The tobacco model won’t work for alcohol because alcohol is easy to make. Alcohol abuse issues correlate to inequality; there are far more elegant solutions available.

        I expect any government of the left to uphold human rights, so outlawing political groups is off the table.

        How do you reconcile a high tech economy with the end of mining?

        • Colonial Viper 11.1.2.1
          28 September 2013 at 8:57 am

          Parts of the tobacco model will work just fine for alcohol. In thinking particularly of advertising bans, plain packaging, and stiffer enforcement of no use zones.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1.2.1.1
            28 September 2013 at 9:37 am

            None of those measures will address the causes of the problem.

            “Stiffer enforcement” – which we all know discriminates against younger adults. Set up the societal conditions that exacerbate substance abuse then punish those who succumb.

            • Colonial Viper 11.1.2.1.1.1
              28 September 2013 at 10:05 am

              You can feel free to address the societal “causes” of the problem (as you put it) over say the next 10-20 years. I’m merely remarking that steps to greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society, and without resorting to prohibition, are available, immediately implementable, and well understood.

              I’ll also add no alcohol outlet sales on Sundays, and no alcohol outlet sales after 8pm. Dropping the drink drive limit.

              I recommend that these measures are used immediately while you get on with changing the “societal conditions” that you think should be changed.

              • One Anonymous Knucklehead …
                28 September 2013 at 10:55 am

                “…greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society…”

                Debatable. Making alcohol harder to buy according to arbitrary calendar events like “Sunday” will have this effect will it? How do you know it won’t have a greater effect of a massive backlash against the nanny state?

                In the countries that have introduced these “well understood” measures (I’m sure you’ll be able to tell us which countries those are), what happened? How long did the social engineering take?

                • Colonial Viper …
                  28 September 2013 at 3:15 pm

                  Feel free to keep debating sociological theories as long as you would like. After all, National/Dunne ignored a large number of recommendations re: the alcohol industry, using the line that more research was needed.

                  I would hope that Labour doesn’t use the same line.

                  Making alcohol harder to buy according to arbitrary calendar events like “Sunday” will have this effect will it?

                  Maybe arbitrary calendar events like turning 18 don’t have any meaning for you in the alcohol debate either?

                  How about closing times, isn’t 2am or 3am or 4am just arbitrary markers of time?

                  And 80mg breathalyser limits, do they mean anything? why not 75mg? 85mg?

                  I mean, get a grip man and try and use a real argument.

                  How do you know it won’t have a greater effect of a massive backlash against the nanny state?

                  You think that the laissez faire side of governing is more your style? Help yourself mate.

                  • McFlock …
                    28 September 2013 at 6:26 pm

                    I think you’re confusing “arbitrary measures” with “measures based on evidence at the time according to increasing response:damage ratios and then mangled via the public policy process”. Eg 4am closing is associated with greater assault numbers than midnight closing.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 6:35 pm

                      and then mangled via the public policy process

                      Yes. That’s politics for you.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead …
                      28 September 2013 at 6:37 pm

                      McF, no, I’m questioning whether ambulances at the bottom of the cliff and Nanny’s big wagging finger will have the slightest effect on alcohol abuse.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 6:50 pm

                      McF, no, I’m questioning whether ambulances at the bottom of the cliff and Nanny’s big wagging finger will have the slightest effect on alcohol abuse.

                      Don’t make light of ideas for increased restrictions on alcohol use, sale and advertising. They can cut alcohol consumption and desirability immediately.

                      That’s why National/Dunne ducked the whole issue.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 6:57 pm

                      OAK – nah, I was talking to CV.

                      He’s off on one of his “ooo, we can just do anything if we ignore everything that humanity has learned about the issue to date – if I can say it in seven words, it must be achievable, and anyone who has actually ‘studied’ the topic is a slave to the zeitgeist” trips.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:05 pm

                      Hey McFlock.

                      I’m a supporter of increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol.

                      Perhaps you think additional deregulation is fine, maybe you think the current regime is perfect and need not be changed, maybe (like National/Dunne) you think that the answer is to do a few more years of research before doing anything; but those aren’t positions I subscribe to.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:13 pm

                      I’m a supporter of increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol.

                      Hey CV, so am I.

                      But beyond that bumper-sticker similarity between us, I don’t think you have any idea about the issues or effects of any specific regulatory change a google search throws your way. And that’s the sort of shit that creates more problems than it solves – six o’clock closing was followed by the seven o’clock wife thumping. Complete banning results in more power to the mob and an “in” for corruption. And you spinning that calling you a public policy idiot is the same as being a shill for the liquor industry is just more of your faith-based bullshit.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:16 pm

                      I haven’t mentioned any bans or prohibition mate, nor any 6pm closing rule.

                      However I am glad to hear that you are for the increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol in society. From what you have said I know that you understand that it would bring immediate and measurable public health benefits to NZ. I don’t know about your 12am closing idea however, it seems a bit too early.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:24 pm

                      Nor did I ever say I thought the current regime is perfect.

                      increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol in society. From what you have said I know that you understand that it would bring immediate and measurable public health benefits to NZ.

                      Depending on the regulation, yes. Or maybe no, again depending on the regulation.

                      I don’t know about your 12am closing idea however, it seems a bit too early.

                      Ok, ignoring for the moment that it was an arbitrary mono-dimensional comparison between two regulatory options, let’s go with that. Why do you think that it’s too early?

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:32 pm

                      Well, the party is usually only starting at 12.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:35 pm

                      which says more about evolving social mores than anything else.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:41 pm

                      It’s been the case with parties that I’ve been going to since 14, so yeah, it’s been evolving.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:45 pm

                      One of these days you’ll get around to realising that not everybody in the country is exactly like you.

                  • One Anonymous Knucklehead …
                    28 September 2013 at 6:33 pm

                    According to you, it will take 10-20 years for changes in the GINI to flow into healthier attitudes to alcohol. According to you, we will “…greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society…”, using changes to price and availability and “stronger enforcement”.

                    I think that it will take you a bit longer than 10-20 years, especially as you have the minor issue of being thrown out of office at the next election to contend with.

                    I know you don’t like that argument, but it is nonetheless a real one.

                    Inequality, not closing time, drives substance abuse.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 6:39 pm

                      hey mate, don’t twist my own words around and ignore my main point – that we can cut alcohol use in society immediately and measurably.

                      Meanwhile you go work on your inequality stuff. Let me know how many months you think it will take to sort out child poverty, for instance.

                      And not be accused of perpetuating the nanny state. And still be able to stay in Government.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead …
                      28 September 2013 at 6:53 pm

                      Price controls only affect moderate drinkers. Licensing enforcement exports problems to less well policed areas. The evidence on advertising is “inconclusive” – source – MoJ.

                      Meanwhile, there is an established link with the GINI.

                      I’m sure you mean well and all, I just don’t think the measures you’re proposing will be effective or popular.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 6:58 pm

                      Sorry, I happen to believe that increased controls on alcohol use, availability and pricing directly affect alcohol consumption. So does the Law Commission. So does the National Government and Peter Dunne.

                      Maybe you thought that National was right not to reduce the drink driving level etc. but I do not.

                      Feel free to pursue your improvements to GINI though, and the changes in alcohol abuse which might result as second and third order effects of that down the track.

                      Meanwhile, as McFlock pointed out, reducing opening hours now will reduce violent assaults and hospitalisations this weekend.

                      Price controls only affect moderate drinkers. Licensing enforcement exports problems to less well policed areas. The evidence on advertising is “inconclusive” – source – MoJ.

                      Yet hitting cigarette advertising is seen as effective and de riguer.

                      Frankly you sound like a right wing libertarian. Regulation is not effective, deregulation has no bad effects, and increased regulation is not likely to do a thing.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:03 pm

                      Meanwhile, as McFlock pointed out, reducing opening hours now will reduce violent assaults and hospitalisations this weekend.

                      in on-licences, and not if taken too far, because that just shifts the problem to preloading and binges when people purchase for the weekend. The problem-diversion issue is real.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:11 pm

                      I thought you said that 12am closing was supported by the evidence.

                      In fact here:

                      http://thestandard.org.nz/garner-tweets-on-what-he-was-told-was-latest-umr-poll-result/#comment-702853

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:15 pm

                      I know you did. That’s why discussing policy with you is so painful.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:19 pm

                      CV, prices have gone up, there is more enforcement than there was twenty years ago. Therefore the problem should have diminished by now, eh?

                      The fundamental difference between me and a Libertarian is that I want to see the evidence. I asked you to provide some, you failed, so I found a handy MoJ discussion paper, which discusses your assertions and cites evidence that undermines them, as if experience hadn’t already done so.

                      I’ve nothing against regulations when they work, but when they’re just there to appease social conservatives I can do without them.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:36 pm

                      I’m going to go with the Law Commission report as a good basis, not your MoJ discussion document.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:42 pm

                      cherry picking? Maybe they’re both good bases to take into account when developing policy.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:52 pm

                      Well good for you for being so open minded, mate.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 7:59 pm

                      It’s called “weight of evidence”.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 8:04 pm

                      well of course, that’s a completely unscientific notion introducing way too much subjectivity.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 8:10 pm

                      obviously, because you said so.

                      in the real world, however…

                      edit:Oh, you changed the line to something equally as trite.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 September 2013 at 8:18 pm

                      Oh? You know of peer reviewed evidence demonstrating that decision making incorporating heuristics around the “weight of evidence” are superior?

                      I’d sure be keen to take a look at that evidence.

                      Because I’m sure that it’s not just because you said so.

                    • McFlock …
                      28 September 2013 at 8:29 pm

                      No, just pointing out that policy analysis comes under a BA, not BSc. It incorporates scientific evidence, but requires more subtlety than the binary thinking you are so fond of.

                      All information provides a piece of the picture, it’s willful blindness to simply choose one analysis document over another for no real reason. They all have factors to consider.

                    • Rogue Trooper …
                      28 September 2013 at 11:31 pm

                      debate grows more original down here.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead …
                      29 September 2013 at 9:01 am

                      Meanwhile you go work on your inequality stuff. Let me know how many months you think it will take to sort out child poverty, for instance.

                      And not be accused of perpetuating the nanny state. And still be able to stay in Government.

                      Measures to combat child poverty are in a completely different league than measures to scold people who take a drink while failing to change the behaviour of problem drinkers one iota.

                      So no, I don’t think food in schools will be seen in quite the same light as booze tax and compulsory bed-time. Electorally speaking, that is.

      • Populuxe1 11.1.3
        28 September 2013 at 6:13 pm

        “This really is a strong mandate from the electorate for the complete repudiation of neo-liberalism.”

        Ah, no. Labour is just a slightly kindler, gentler neoliberal party of the Blairite, Third Way type. Hello! David Parker is deputy leader! They support the TPPA and have been very slippery about National’s asset sales.

        • Colonial Viper 11.1.3.1
          28 September 2013 at 6:18 pm

          Ah, no. Labour is just a slightly kindler, gentler neoliberal party of the Blairite, Third Way type.

          Of course, that must be why National’s big business backers are so worried about Labour. It’s because Labour are just a slightly watered down National. Very worrying for the corporate set.

          • karol 11.1.3.1.1
            28 September 2013 at 6:26 pm

            I think the right may be afraid of losing control of the dominant narrative, as much as of the proposed policies.

            There looks to be a mood for change from the base and flax roots. Must be very worrying for the right that has controlled the dominant narrative for a few decades.

            • Colonial Viper 11.1.3.1.1.1
              28 September 2013 at 7:39 pm

              Exactly. A lot of latent/inactive Labour supporters have been waiting a long time for a Labour Party of principle that they could be proud of supporting. Looks like we might have one finally – maybe.

              And the Righties are very worried.

    • Steve 11.2
      28 September 2013 at 8:33 am

      Is Garner waking up, or desperate to calm the dissent and “time they are a changin?”. Is he preparing to get employment in future public broadcasting.

      This is a very interesting point xtasy. I noticed during the term of the third Clark government the mainstream media moved to the right and by the time the election arrived many were almost screaming “Vote National”.

      I think this move is just beginning to play out in reverse. It’s probably a combination of arse protecting and following public sentiment – not wishing to be on the wrong side of history. Neverless it is real and I believe we at that tipping point. This thing does have momentum.

      No time for complacency though as most mainstream media still have a neo-lib bias.

      • Pete 11.2.1
        28 September 2013 at 9:49 am

        Neverless it is real and I believe we at that tipping point. This thing does have momentum.

        I believe you’re right. The big mo is gathering behind the Left. I wouldn’t quite label Key as yesterday’s man just yet. But it does feel like time is running down on his administration.

      • lurgee 11.2.2
        28 September 2013 at 7:26 pm

        I think Garner, in common with most journalists, is simply eager to report the most interesting story first. To correct the supposed ‘neo-liberal bias’ Labour has to make sure it is that story, and in a good way.

    • Lloyd 11.3
      28 September 2013 at 8:35 pm

      The Gnats may have eaten away at the edges, but they haven’t destroyed National Radio yet. There is still some good journalism there.

    • Sean Carroll 11.4
      28 September 2013 at 11:50 pm

      Great! But are you after neoliberal change, like Blair’s Thirds Way?

  12. BrucetheMoose 12
    28 September 2013 at 8:46 am

    Once the times have changed, hopefully it might be more a case of Ray Charles’s advice for Johnny –

    • Chooky 12.1
      28 September 2013 at 3:51 pm

      Bruce the Moose…+1 … great song also! …especially for the two Johnnys (Key and Banks) of Nact!

  13. Mary 13
    28 September 2013 at 12:24 pm

    Is Garner tweeting the truth all of a sudden? I’d wait for the poll to come out before I believed it.

  14. finbar 14
    28 September 2013 at 2:39 pm

    I am a recent user to this blog line.My political belief is in no way opposed to the harm of the blogs intention far from it.I do find though the censor a bit precious about others opinions that are not in line with their ideals,however fair the comment may be.

    [lprent: Read the policy. For the moderators, people’s opinions count for very little. Their behaviour both present and past counts for a lot. We find that having an active moderation policy keeps the sanctimonous arsehole population (whining about how we run the site) under control.

    I’ll be happy to demonstrate but perhaps you should first read the section in banning on darwin awards. ]

    • finbar 14.1
      28 September 2013 at 4:46 pm

      Are you infering im a arsehole..

      [Lprent: there was a word in front of it… Figure it out. ]

      • finbar 14.1.1
        28 September 2013 at 8:07 pm

        Aside from the front word whatever offended your dialect, escapes me,that what did you find not worthy of my comment about the direction of Labour, under Cunliffe!s direction.I think my comment, was a fair assumption.

  15. Tracey 15
    28 September 2013 at 4:32 pm

    Not convinced altho it cld explain sHooten up going rabbid.

  16. lurgee 16
    28 September 2013 at 7:23 pm

    UMR used to do fortnightly polls but seemed to stop doing so earlier this year, which is a shame as they seemed to be very consistent. You can see their table on page 12, of the PDF below, they had National on 44-45% consistently for 2012. it’s a shame we don’t seem to have any more recent data, as if they are getting consistent results, this is really interesting. A huge chunk taken out of National, Greens still bubbling along nicely? And, crucially, Labour close enough to look like a credible governing party, rather than a distant second placer being jobbed into power by the third placer … That is very important in the long term, I think.

    http://umr.co.nz/sites/umr/files/umr_mood_of_the_nation_2013_online_0.pdf

    I have a horrible feeling I might be eating some humble pie. Oh well, gotta try everything once.

  17. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 17
    29 September 2013 at 10:50 am

    I am a bit confused about when a leak from within Labour to Garner is a baseless lie (like the coup talk) and when it is a solid fact (such as a favourable poll result).

    I know it can’t be as simple as: good news for Labour is a fact and bad is a baseless lie, but I am just struggling to crack the code.

    • Craig GlenEden 17.1
      29 September 2013 at 11:32 am

      Ok this is the code if it came from Mallard its a baseless lie serving his own purpose.If its a leak that has positive implications for Labour and Garner is stating it publicly its going to be the truth. Simple code really.

  18. Sable 18
    30 September 2013 at 10:47 pm

    Sorry nice thought but these spot polls are really not that useful as a measure of anything meaningful. Worse still they can lead to complacency which in this case is potentially dangerous. Keys is odious but he’s no fool and to underrate him and his regime is a mistake….

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    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

    The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

    Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.    “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024.  “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ to advance relationships with ASEAN partners

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane.    “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says.   “This will be our third visit to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Backing mental health services on the West Coast

    Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ support for sustainable Pacific fisheries

    New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Students’ needs at centre of new charter school adjustments

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Commissioner replaces Health NZ Board

    In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today.  “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister to speak at Australian Space Forum

    Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum.  While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation.  “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan.  “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government launches Military Style Academy Pilot

    The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Nine priority bridge replacements to get underway

    The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Update on global IT outage

    Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand, Japan renew Pacific partnership

    New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.    “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New infrastructure energises BOP forestry towns

    New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 'Pacific Futures'

    President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests.    Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone.    Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

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