Garner tweets on what he was told was latest UMR poll result

Written By: - Date published: 5:04 pm, September 27th, 2013 - 100 comments
Categories: labour - Tags:

Just a short post and a song for Friday afternoon.  Duncan Garner has tweeted the results of a UMR poll.

Just been told that UMR poll has Nats 39, Lab 36, Green 14, NZF 5.1%. Not sure if it’s out yet. Internal presentation yday.

And the most appropriate song I could think of …

Of course it is early days and there is a lot of work to do.  But things look promising.

100 comments on “Garner tweets on what he was told was latest UMR poll result”

  1. Jenny Kirk 1

    Yep – its far too soon, Mickey. But good for morale. We’ve got a long course to sail yet – we don’t want a last-minute Oracle ! (scuse flights of fancy – couldn’t help myself)

    • Tangee 1.1

      At least the polls are a bit consistent in that labour is on the rise. and now it is to maintain or grow that increase

  2. Chooky 2

    Fantastic!…and great song!!!!

    ….Go Cunliffe Team NZ!!!!

  3. Macro 3

    Then again there is BB King at the White House
    Seems appropriate for some 😉

    “The Thrill is Gone.” hehehe

    • Chooky 3.1

      @Macro….how cool is that ? Great music!…(the cat loved it too )

      Yup!… bye bye Nact and Key.!!!….there is a new man Cunliffe leading a new Labour Party to a great victory in 2014!!! …..with the Greens!!!

  4. karol 4

    I never pin any hopes on polls. But it’s useful PR.

    And great song for this Friday PM.

  5. SDCLFC7 5

    There’s 6 points missing. Seems a lot for Mana, Utd; Conservative; Maori; Act but then again maybe not (I’m just surprised by the drop in National)
    While this is good to see I really want to see us getting up around 38/39.
    I also think the increase has got to come at the expense of the Greens. We’re not going to get 40 points while the Greens are polling at 12+

    • Labour doesn’t need to eat into the greens to make an extra 3%, they can keep on chipping away at people who didn’t vote the last few elections, and so can the Greens. Ideally I’d like to see a really strong majority with just those two parties, I don’t particularly care the mix so long as they can play nice together.

    • karol 5.2

      There’s only about 6% missing.
      Lab-Green 50%.
      Nats 39%
      NZF 5.1%
      = 94%

      • Vagabundo 5.2.1

        Garner didn’t mention ACT, Maori, UF, Mana and the undecideds + parties out of parliament.

        I’d imagine the coalition partners probably got about 4% combined, and probably 1% each to Mana and the Conservatives.

        • Actually it’s been more like 3% conservatives, 1% to each of the other parties in recent polls, but that may be because the recent ones have been the more right-wing polls.

          • Vagabundo 5.2.1.1.1

            Where’s the 3% for the Conservatives coming from? I just checked the most recent Herald, CB and RM polls, and all three of them have the Conservatives at around 1%. Specifically, the Herald poll had them at exactly 1%, CB had them at 0.8% and RM had them at 1.5%.

      • ScottGN 5.2.2

        Balance made up of the minnows, Mana, Maori Party. ACT, UFP and Conservatives. Seems about right. Best thing though is Nats below 40%.

      • David H 5.2.3

        They must be saving the 6% for the convivial cup of tea.

        • miravox 5.2.3.1

          Key has already had one with The Hair, hasn’t he? Or was that coffee? – maybe the tea is tainted

    • Saarbo 5.3

      Well its an exciting trend, Im not surprised though as I was aware of many people who were sick and tired of national’s lies, they just wanted a decent alternative Labour….. and its arrived.

  6. Sosoo 6

    No wonder Hootoff was so down in the dumps yesterday. The pig party must know from internal polling that things have turned south.

    Wait until Cunliffe is whipping Key on a regular basis in parliament.

    • North 6.1

      Wait for March/April when Sir Kiwi Kim Dotcom’s gonna really stick it up the simpering Balmoral Bitch we call PM. Who calls Balmoral “a magnificent ‘property’ “. Yokel !!!

      I’m punting here, no links, no authority, just a feeling. ShonKey Python’s seen the writing on the wall already. (KDC above). He’s not gonna hang around to lose. He’s bored. Democracy’s a bitch when you get into the detail. Those New Zealanders seem not to be lying down to a smile anymore. Much more interesting to pick up the knighthood and cruise around being a gauche proslytiser for Her Madge.

      Such is the cheapness of the construct we know as The Honourable ShonKey Python the Earl of Arselick.

      Judge Judy sits and knits.

    • North 6.2

      Wait for March/April when Sir Kiwi Kim Dotcom’s gonna really stick it up the simpering Balmoral Bitch we call PM. Who calls Balmoral “a magnificent ‘property’ “. Yokel !!!

      I’m punting here, no links, no authority, just a feeling. ShonKey Python’s seen the writing on the wall already. (KDC above and Cunliffe of course). He’s not gonna hang around to lose. He’s bored. Democracy’s a bitch when you get into the confusing detail of it. Those New Zealanders seem not to be lying down to a smile anymore. Much more interesting to pick up the knighthood and cruise around being a gauche proslytiser for Her Madge.

      Such is the cheapness of the construct we know as The Right Honourable ShonKey Python Earl of Arselick.

      Judge Judy sits and knits.

    • David H 6.3

      “Wait until Cunliffe is whipping Key on a regular basis in parliament.”

      Then I think there will be a brief flurry of activity, and the New Nat leader will emerge with all the fanfare and excitement of a visit to the dentists.

  7. Blue 7

    Makes you want to cry thinking about how much time Labour wasted on Shearer.

  8. Steve 8

    This is great news and demonstrates why the right were so vehemently anti-Cunliffe.

    With the H – bro’s scoring a couple of home goals this news rounds off a very good week.

    No time for complacency though – expect the full smoke and mirror set to be deployed by team Slippery.

    • karol 8.1

      No time for complacency though – expect the full smoke and mirror set to be deployed by team Slippery.

      Yep. Shonkey’s been off on a refresher course on that.

  9. Linz 9

    iPredict:
    There will be a Labour Prime Minister after the 2014 General Election
    Probability: 50.0% ( up 0.02%)

    There will be a National Prime Minister after the 2014 General Election
    Probability : 49.1% (down 4.77%)

    Have a very nice weekend everybody.

    • jaymam 9.1

      Yeah I used to be impressed by Ipredict. But if you look at the actual bets for 2014 Nat PM, most of the fluctuation is caused by bets of a few dollars. I could throw a few dollars away to influence Ipredict graphs. But I won’t.

  10. ak 10

    At eight nil ahead, it was simply inconceivable that even superior financial resources could scupper the proud kiwis’ march to victory……

    No rest yet, brothers and sisters. Crush every filthy Orewa One derivative (and there’ll be plenty) at birth: with all the venom it deserves. Then pound those pavements to the sun like there’s no tomorrow.

    Grab your one chance. Hammer the stake home, then join progressive history. For your and my beautiful wee ones.

  11. xtasy 11

    Can we “garner” Garner a bit more to put him on the spit for a nice grilling? I would love to see his station suffer immensely under a new public broadcasting policy to be launched by a new Labour led government, which will be so overdue. The Nats have destroyed all sensible quality media in this country and seized on it to make the gutted remnants their propaganda mouthpieces!

    Is Garner waking up, or desperate to calm the dissent and “time they are a changin?”. Is he preparing to get employment in future public broadcasting.

    Anyway, getting to his poll tweeting, this sounds very interesting, and I wish it was true!!!

    That is what we need, a real “time they are a changin”!

    But to all now so excited Labourites, do NOT get over excited, the rise in the polls was to be expected. You must work on keeping the momentum going, full steam, and you must do all now, to HAMMER OUT the smart policies this country is “hungry” for!!!

    We cannot just rely on Kiwi Build, on that Power plan, and a bit here and there, more is needed, a total GAME CHANGER! Future policies, in economic development, science, research, trade, labour, local body and regional development, new, more sustainable and progressive energy policies, public transport expansion, environmental safeguarding, immigration, and do NOT forget, policies for the socially disadvantaged, please, which I fear, will once again be overlooked!

    Policy is the decisionmaker, not just much talk and a “war” on the goverment, get into POLICY, and that means a real PLAN for NZ, a future for ALL, and to get us AHEAD, not stuck and backward, thanks, I will celebrate with all of you, when we get this, best of luck anyway!

    I will continue to vote Green, as that is the better choice for me, but we must ALL work together, and WILL work together!

    • Dem Young Sconies 11.1

      +1

      This really is a strong mandate from the electorate for the complete repudiation of neo-liberalism. The 10% should fear the coming storm.
      We’re coming for ya!
      and yes, firm media control must be in the mix to end right wing bias.
      Goodbye Garner, goodbye Gower, goodbye Fairfax, goodbye Murdock.

      Nationalisation without compensation for the public good will be the call
      Banks, supermarkets, construction, energy generation & distribution, media, and other significant industries.

      It’s time for Cunliffe to get bold!

      Kiwibuild needs to be bolder, bigger, and be 100% State house builds
      NZ Power should be full, completely integrated nationalisation, not a half-way house – return to the Energy Board.
      The living wage is for all
      Full employment
      Abolish the GST
      Scrap benefits and replace them with the Universal Basic Income
      Set it at the living wage (so it becomes the defacto minimum wage)
      No more marginalisation of the most vulnerable in our society
      No income tax on the UBI – positive income tax kicks in from this point
      Set flat tax rate on income above UBI at 49%
      Align corporate and trust rates to ensure no rorts.
      Capital gains tax
      Reintroduce duty on imported goods
      Set-up a 100% State owned manufacturing industry
      Set-up a State construction & apprentaship scheme to power the State house build
      Tax private land
      Tax financial transactions
      Tax carbon pollutants
      Tax sugar & fat – and outlaw corporate fast food & drink
      Use the tobacco control model for alcohol, sugar, fat & caffeine.
      Free education and the UBI for students
      Abolish National standards, and close all non-State schools
      Increase the size of the State to improve the services it delivers, and to ensure full employment
      Implement a high-tech carbon neutral economy
      End ruminant farming immediately – cull all stock
      Ban the use of nitrates and other agricultural poisons
      End all mining, drilling & fracking
      Stop all road building and invest heavily in 21st century public transport solutions
      Phase out the use of private vehicles, once public transport can meet demand
      Try slippery and his cronies for the treason they have committed against the people
      Outlaw political groups of the far right

      Exciting times 🙂

      • karol 11.1.1

        love your list.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1.2

        The Local Government Rating Act 2002.
        7(1): All land is rateable.

        Would you really close all Montessori and Steiner schools?

        The tobacco model won’t work for alcohol because alcohol is easy to make. Alcohol abuse issues correlate to inequality; there are far more elegant solutions available.

        I expect any government of the left to uphold human rights, so outlawing political groups is off the table.

        How do you reconcile a high tech economy with the end of mining?

        • Colonial Viper 11.1.2.1

          Parts of the tobacco model will work just fine for alcohol. In thinking particularly of advertising bans, plain packaging, and stiffer enforcement of no use zones.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1.2.1.1

            None of those measures will address the causes of the problem.

            “Stiffer enforcement” – which we all know discriminates against younger adults. Set up the societal conditions that exacerbate substance abuse then punish those who succumb.

            • Colonial Viper 11.1.2.1.1.1

              You can feel free to address the societal “causes” of the problem (as you put it) over say the next 10-20 years. I’m merely remarking that steps to greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society, and without resorting to prohibition, are available, immediately implementable, and well understood.

              I’ll also add no alcohol outlet sales on Sundays, and no alcohol outlet sales after 8pm. Dropping the drink drive limit.

              I recommend that these measures are used immediately while you get on with changing the “societal conditions” that you think should be changed.

              • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                “…greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society…”

                Debatable. Making alcohol harder to buy according to arbitrary calendar events like “Sunday” will have this effect will it? How do you know it won’t have a greater effect of a massive backlash against the nanny state?

                In the countries that have introduced these “well understood” measures (I’m sure you’ll be able to tell us which countries those are), what happened? How long did the social engineering take?

                • Colonial Viper

                  Feel free to keep debating sociological theories as long as you would like. After all, National/Dunne ignored a large number of recommendations re: the alcohol industry, using the line that more research was needed.

                  I would hope that Labour doesn’t use the same line.

                  Making alcohol harder to buy according to arbitrary calendar events like “Sunday” will have this effect will it?

                  Maybe arbitrary calendar events like turning 18 don’t have any meaning for you in the alcohol debate either?

                  How about closing times, isn’t 2am or 3am or 4am just arbitrary markers of time?

                  And 80mg breathalyser limits, do they mean anything? why not 75mg? 85mg?

                  I mean, get a grip man and try and use a real argument.

                  How do you know it won’t have a greater effect of a massive backlash against the nanny state?

                  You think that the laissez faire side of governing is more your style? Help yourself mate.

                  • McFlock

                    I think you’re confusing “arbitrary measures” with “measures based on evidence at the time according to increasing response:damage ratios and then mangled via the public policy process”. Eg 4am closing is associated with greater assault numbers than midnight closing.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      and then mangled via the public policy process

                      Yes. That’s politics for you.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      McF, no, I’m questioning whether ambulances at the bottom of the cliff and Nanny’s big wagging finger will have the slightest effect on alcohol abuse.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      McF, no, I’m questioning whether ambulances at the bottom of the cliff and Nanny’s big wagging finger will have the slightest effect on alcohol abuse.

                      Don’t make light of ideas for increased restrictions on alcohol use, sale and advertising. They can cut alcohol consumption and desirability immediately.

                      That’s why National/Dunne ducked the whole issue.

                    • McFlock

                      OAK – nah, I was talking to CV.

                      He’s off on one of his “ooo, we can just do anything if we ignore everything that humanity has learned about the issue to date – if I can say it in seven words, it must be achievable, and anyone who has actually ‘studied’ the topic is a slave to the zeitgeist” trips.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Hey McFlock.

                      I’m a supporter of increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol.

                      Perhaps you think additional deregulation is fine, maybe you think the current regime is perfect and need not be changed, maybe (like National/Dunne) you think that the answer is to do a few more years of research before doing anything; but those aren’t positions I subscribe to.

                    • McFlock

                      I’m a supporter of increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol.

                      Hey CV, so am I.

                      But beyond that bumper-sticker similarity between us, I don’t think you have any idea about the issues or effects of any specific regulatory change a google search throws your way. And that’s the sort of shit that creates more problems than it solves – six o’clock closing was followed by the seven o’clock wife thumping. Complete banning results in more power to the mob and an “in” for corruption. And you spinning that calling you a public policy idiot is the same as being a shill for the liquor industry is just more of your faith-based bullshit.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      I haven’t mentioned any bans or prohibition mate, nor any 6pm closing rule.

                      However I am glad to hear that you are for the increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol in society. From what you have said I know that you understand that it would bring immediate and measurable public health benefits to NZ. I don’t know about your 12am closing idea however, it seems a bit too early.

                    • McFlock

                      Nor did I ever say I thought the current regime is perfect.

                      increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol in society. From what you have said I know that you understand that it would bring immediate and measurable public health benefits to NZ.

                      Depending on the regulation, yes. Or maybe no, again depending on the regulation.

                      I don’t know about your 12am closing idea however, it seems a bit too early.

                      Ok, ignoring for the moment that it was an arbitrary mono-dimensional comparison between two regulatory options, let’s go with that. Why do you think that it’s too early?

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Well, the party is usually only starting at 12.

                    • McFlock

                      which says more about evolving social mores than anything else.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      It’s been the case with parties that I’ve been going to since 14, so yeah, it’s been evolving.

                    • McFlock

                      One of these days you’ll get around to realising that not everybody in the country is exactly like you.

                  • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                    According to you, it will take 10-20 years for changes in the GINI to flow into healthier attitudes to alcohol. According to you, we will “…greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society…”, using changes to price and availability and “stronger enforcement”.

                    I think that it will take you a bit longer than 10-20 years, especially as you have the minor issue of being thrown out of office at the next election to contend with.

                    I know you don’t like that argument, but it is nonetheless a real one.

                    Inequality, not closing time, drives substance abuse.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      hey mate, don’t twist my own words around and ignore my main point – that we can cut alcohol use in society immediately and measurably.

                      Meanwhile you go work on your inequality stuff. Let me know how many months you think it will take to sort out child poverty, for instance.

                      And not be accused of perpetuating the nanny state. And still be able to stay in Government.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Price controls only affect moderate drinkers. Licensing enforcement exports problems to less well policed areas. The evidence on advertising is “inconclusive” – source – MoJ.

                      Meanwhile, there is an established link with the GINI.

                      I’m sure you mean well and all, I just don’t think the measures you’re proposing will be effective or popular.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Sorry, I happen to believe that increased controls on alcohol use, availability and pricing directly affect alcohol consumption. So does the Law Commission. So does the National Government and Peter Dunne.

                      Maybe you thought that National was right not to reduce the drink driving level etc. but I do not.

                      Feel free to pursue your improvements to GINI though, and the changes in alcohol abuse which might result as second and third order effects of that down the track.

                      Meanwhile, as McFlock pointed out, reducing opening hours now will reduce violent assaults and hospitalisations this weekend.

                      Price controls only affect moderate drinkers. Licensing enforcement exports problems to less well policed areas. The evidence on advertising is “inconclusive” – source – MoJ.

                      Yet hitting cigarette advertising is seen as effective and de riguer.

                      Frankly you sound like a right wing libertarian. Regulation is not effective, deregulation has no bad effects, and increased regulation is not likely to do a thing.

                    • McFlock

                      Meanwhile, as McFlock pointed out, reducing opening hours now will reduce violent assaults and hospitalisations this weekend.

                      in on-licences, and not if taken too far, because that just shifts the problem to preloading and binges when people purchase for the weekend. The problem-diversion issue is real.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      I thought you said that 12am closing was supported by the evidence.

                      In fact here:

                      Garner tweets on what he was told was latest UMR poll result

                    • McFlock

                      I know you did. That’s why discussing policy with you is so painful.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      CV, prices have gone up, there is more enforcement than there was twenty years ago. Therefore the problem should have diminished by now, eh?

                      The fundamental difference between me and a Libertarian is that I want to see the evidence. I asked you to provide some, you failed, so I found a handy MoJ discussion paper, which discusses your assertions and cites evidence that undermines them, as if experience hadn’t already done so.

                      I’ve nothing against regulations when they work, but when they’re just there to appease social conservatives I can do without them.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      I’m going to go with the Law Commission report as a good basis, not your MoJ discussion document.

                    • McFlock

                      cherry picking? Maybe they’re both good bases to take into account when developing policy.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Well good for you for being so open minded, mate.

                    • McFlock

                      It’s called “weight of evidence”.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      well of course, that’s a completely unscientific notion introducing way too much subjectivity.

                    • McFlock

                      obviously, because you said so.

                      in the real world, however…

                      edit:Oh, you changed the line to something equally as trite.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Oh? You know of peer reviewed evidence demonstrating that decision making incorporating heuristics around the “weight of evidence” are superior?

                      I’d sure be keen to take a look at that evidence.

                      Because I’m sure that it’s not just because you said so.

                    • McFlock

                      No, just pointing out that policy analysis comes under a BA, not BSc. It incorporates scientific evidence, but requires more subtlety than the binary thinking you are so fond of.

                      All information provides a piece of the picture, it’s willful blindness to simply choose one analysis document over another for no real reason. They all have factors to consider.

                    • Rogue Trooper

                      debate grows more original down here.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Meanwhile you go work on your inequality stuff. Let me know how many months you think it will take to sort out child poverty, for instance.

                      And not be accused of perpetuating the nanny state. And still be able to stay in Government.

                      Measures to combat child poverty are in a completely different league than measures to scold people who take a drink while failing to change the behaviour of problem drinkers one iota.

                      So no, I don’t think food in schools will be seen in quite the same light as booze tax and compulsory bed-time. Electorally speaking, that is.

      • Populuxe1 11.1.3

        “This really is a strong mandate from the electorate for the complete repudiation of neo-liberalism.”

        Ah, no. Labour is just a slightly kindler, gentler neoliberal party of the Blairite, Third Way type. Hello! David Parker is deputy leader! They support the TPPA and have been very slippery about National’s asset sales.

        • Colonial Viper 11.1.3.1

          Ah, no. Labour is just a slightly kindler, gentler neoliberal party of the Blairite, Third Way type.

          Of course, that must be why National’s big business backers are so worried about Labour. It’s because Labour are just a slightly watered down National. Very worrying for the corporate set.

          • karol 11.1.3.1.1

            I think the right may be afraid of losing control of the dominant narrative, as much as of the proposed policies.

            There looks to be a mood for change from the base and flax roots. Must be very worrying for the right that has controlled the dominant narrative for a few decades.

            • Colonial Viper 11.1.3.1.1.1

              Exactly. A lot of latent/inactive Labour supporters have been waiting a long time for a Labour Party of principle that they could be proud of supporting. Looks like we might have one finally – maybe.

              And the Righties are very worried.

    • Steve 11.2

      Is Garner waking up, or desperate to calm the dissent and “time they are a changin?”. Is he preparing to get employment in future public broadcasting.

      This is a very interesting point xtasy. I noticed during the term of the third Clark government the mainstream media moved to the right and by the time the election arrived many were almost screaming “Vote National”.

      I think this move is just beginning to play out in reverse. It’s probably a combination of arse protecting and following public sentiment – not wishing to be on the wrong side of history. Neverless it is real and I believe we at that tipping point. This thing does have momentum.

      No time for complacency though as most mainstream media still have a neo-lib bias.

      • Pete 11.2.1

        Neverless it is real and I believe we at that tipping point. This thing does have momentum.

        I believe you’re right. The big mo is gathering behind the Left. I wouldn’t quite label Key as yesterday’s man just yet. But it does feel like time is running down on his administration.

      • lurgee 11.2.2

        I think Garner, in common with most journalists, is simply eager to report the most interesting story first. To correct the supposed ‘neo-liberal bias’ Labour has to make sure it is that story, and in a good way.

    • Lloyd 11.3

      The Gnats may have eaten away at the edges, but they haven’t destroyed National Radio yet. There is still some good journalism there.

    • Sean Carroll 11.4

      Great! But are you after neoliberal change, like Blair’s Thirds Way?

  12. BrucetheMoose 12

    Once the times have changed, hopefully it might be more a case of Ray Charles’s advice for Johnny –

  13. Mary 13

    Is Garner tweeting the truth all of a sudden? I’d wait for the poll to come out before I believed it.

  14. finbar 14

    I am a recent user to this blog line.My political belief is in no way opposed to the harm of the blogs intention far from it.I do find though the censor a bit precious about others opinions that are not in line with their ideals,however fair the comment may be.

    [lprent: Read the policy. For the moderators, people’s opinions count for very little. Their behaviour both present and past counts for a lot. We find that having an active moderation policy keeps the sanctimonous arsehole population (whining about how we run the site) under control.

    I’ll be happy to demonstrate but perhaps you should first read the section in banning on darwin awards. ]

    • finbar 14.1

      Are you infering im a arsehole..

      [Lprent: there was a word in front of it… Figure it out. ]

      • finbar 14.1.1

        Aside from the front word whatever offended your dialect, escapes me,that what did you find not worthy of my comment about the direction of Labour, under Cunliffe!s direction.I think my comment, was a fair assumption.

  15. Tracey 15

    Not convinced altho it cld explain sHooten up going rabbid.

  16. lurgee 16

    UMR used to do fortnightly polls but seemed to stop doing so earlier this year, which is a shame as they seemed to be very consistent. You can see their table on page 12, of the PDF below, they had National on 44-45% consistently for 2012. it’s a shame we don’t seem to have any more recent data, as if they are getting consistent results, this is really interesting. A huge chunk taken out of National, Greens still bubbling along nicely? And, crucially, Labour close enough to look like a credible governing party, rather than a distant second placer being jobbed into power by the third placer … That is very important in the long term, I think.

    http://umr.co.nz/sites/umr/files/umr_mood_of_the_nation_2013_online_0.pdf

    I have a horrible feeling I might be eating some humble pie. Oh well, gotta try everything once.

  17. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 17

    I am a bit confused about when a leak from within Labour to Garner is a baseless lie (like the coup talk) and when it is a solid fact (such as a favourable poll result).

    I know it can’t be as simple as: good news for Labour is a fact and bad is a baseless lie, but I am just struggling to crack the code.

    • Craig GlenEden 17.1

      Ok this is the code if it came from Mallard its a baseless lie serving his own purpose.If its a leak that has positive implications for Labour and Garner is stating it publicly its going to be the truth. Simple code really.

  18. Sable 18

    Sorry nice thought but these spot polls are really not that useful as a measure of anything meaningful. Worse still they can lead to complacency which in this case is potentially dangerous. Keys is odious but he’s no fool and to underrate him and his regime is a mistake….

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    The Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) had part of its committee stage yesterday. its a generally tedious bill about the nitty-gritty of local government reorganisation. But it includes a clause making the Local Government Commission subject to the Ombudsmen Act, and hence the OIA. Great! Except of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    17 hours ago
  • Ihumātao and Treaty settlements
    Yesterday Ihumātao's mana whenua reached a consensus that they would like their land back, and asked the government to negotiate with Fletcher's for its return. The government's response? Try and undermine that consensus, while talking about how doing anything would undermine existing Treaty settlements. The first is just more bad ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    22 hours ago
  • Protecting our history
    Its Suffrage Day, the 126th anniversary of women winning the right to vote (but not stand in elections) in New Zealand. And to celebrate, the government has bought Kate Sheppard's house in Christchurch:The government has bought Kate Sheppard's former home in Christchurch for more than $4 million. The Ilam villa ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    22 hours ago
  • Climate Change: Ostracising the coal-burners
    The UN climate summit is happening in new York next week, and unlike previous years, coal-burners and denier-states are not being invited to speak:Leading economies such as Japan and Australia will not be invited to speak at next week’s crunch UN climate change summit, as their continued support for coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    22 hours ago
  • Jojo Tamihere Salutes Herr Goff.
    Get Back Jojo! The elation in Mayor Phil Goff’s camp may be easily imagined as they watched social media light up in indignation at challenger John Tamihere’s "Sieg Heil to that" quip. Just when JT’s notoriously right-wing, sexist and homophobic stains were beginning to fade back into his ‘colourful’ past, ...
    1 day ago
  • Hard News: A fun but flawed weed documentary
    Patrick Gower is good value when he's high. Not that I've ever, you know, got stoned with him. But in the second part of his documentary Patrick Gower on Weed, he does what you'd expect in a modern weed documentary and immerses himself – first with a doctor, then a ...
    1 day ago
  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 days ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    3 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    3 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    3 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    4 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    5 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    6 days ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    7 days ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    1 week ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    1 week ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago

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