Garner tweets on what he was told was latest UMR poll result

100 comments on “Garner tweets on what he was told was latest UMR poll result ”

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1. Jenny Kirk 1

   27 September 2013 at 5:14 pm

   Yep – its far too soon, Mickey. But good for morale. We’ve got a long course to sail yet – we don’t want a last-minute Oracle ! (scuse flights of fancy – couldn’t help myself)
   • Tangee 1.1

     27 September 2013 at 9:47 pm

     At least the polls are a bit consistent in that labour is on the rise. and now it is to maintain or grow that increase
2. Chooky 2

   27 September 2013 at 5:22 pm

   Fantastic!…and great song!!!!

   ….Go Cunliffe Team NZ!!!!
3. Macro 3

   27 September 2013 at 5:26 pm

   Then again there is BB King at the White House
   Seems appropriate for some 😉
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLh-8HkvmyM
   “The Thrill is Gone.” hehehe
   • Chooky 3.1

     27 September 2013 at 6:18 pm

     @Macro….how cool is that ? Great music!…(the cat loved it too )

     Yup!… bye bye Nact and Key.!!!….there is a new man Cunliffe leading a new Labour Party to a great victory in 2014!!! …..with the Greens!!!
4. karol 4

   27 September 2013 at 5:27 pm

   I never pin any hopes on polls. But it’s useful PR.

   And great song for this Friday PM.
5. SDCLFC7 5

   27 September 2013 at 5:31 pm

   There’s 6 points missing. Seems a lot for Mana, Utd; Conservative; Maori; Act but then again maybe not (I’m just surprised by the drop in National)
   While this is good to see I really want to see us getting up around 38/39.
   I also think the increase has got to come at the expense of the Greens. We’re not going to get 40 points while the Greens are polling at 12+
   • Matthew Whitehead 5.1

     27 September 2013 at 5:46 pm

     Labour doesn’t need to eat into the greens to make an extra 3%, they can keep on chipping away at people who didn’t vote the last few elections, and so can the Greens. Ideally I’d like to see a really strong majority with just those two parties, I don’t particularly care the mix so long as they can play nice together.
   • karol 5.2

     27 September 2013 at 5:51 pm

     There’s only about 6% missing.
     Lab-Green 50%.
     Nats 39%
     NZF 5.1%
     = 94%
     • Vagabundo 5.2.1

       27 September 2013 at 6:03 pm

       Garner didn’t mention ACT, Maori, UF, Mana and the undecideds + parties out of parliament.

       I’d imagine the coalition partners probably got about 4% combined, and probably 1% each to Mana and the Conservatives.
       • Matthew Whitehead 5.2.1.1

         28 September 2013 at 12:15 am

         Actually it’s been more like 3% conservatives, 1% to each of the other parties in recent polls, but that may be because the recent ones have been the more right-wing polls.
         • Vagabundo 5.2.1.1.1

           28 September 2013 at 2:37 pm

           Where’s the 3% for the Conservatives coming from? I just checked the most recent Herald, CB and RM polls, and all three of them have the Conservatives at around 1%. Specifically, the Herald poll had them at exactly 1%, CB had them at 0.8% and RM had them at 1.5%.
     • ScottGN 5.2.2

       27 September 2013 at 6:06 pm

       Balance made up of the minnows, Mana, Maori Party. ACT, UFP and Conservatives. Seems about right. Best thing though is Nats below 40%.
     • David H 5.2.3

       28 September 2013 at 9:14 am

       They must be saving the 6% for the convivial cup of tea.
       • miravox 5.2.3.1

         28 September 2013 at 9:53 am

         Key has already had one with The Hair, hasn’t he? Or was that coffee? – maybe the tea is tainted
   • Saarbo 5.3

     27 September 2013 at 6:36 pm

     Well its an exciting trend, Im not surprised though as I was aware of many people who were sick and tired of national’s lies, they just wanted a decent alternative Labour….. and its arrived.
6. Sosoo 6

   27 September 2013 at 5:33 pm

   No wonder Hootoff was so down in the dumps yesterday. The pig party must know from internal polling that things have turned south.

   Wait until Cunliffe is whipping Key on a regular basis in parliament.
   • North 6.1

     28 September 2013 at 12:06 am

     Wait for March/April when Sir Kiwi Kim Dotcom’s gonna really stick it up the simpering Balmoral Bitch we call PM. Who calls Balmoral “a magnificent ‘property’ “. Yokel !!!

     I’m punting here, no links, no authority, just a feeling. ShonKey Python’s seen the writing on the wall already. (KDC above). He’s not gonna hang around to lose. He’s bored. Democracy’s a bitch when you get into the detail. Those New Zealanders seem not to be lying down to a smile anymore. Much more interesting to pick up the knighthood and cruise around being a gauche proslytiser for Her Madge.

     Such is the cheapness of the construct we know as The Honourable ShonKey Python the Earl of Arselick.

     Judge Judy sits and knits.
   • North 6.2

     28 September 2013 at 12:11 am

     Wait for March/April when Sir Kiwi Kim Dotcom’s gonna really stick it up the simpering Balmoral Bitch we call PM. Who calls Balmoral “a magnificent ‘property’ “. Yokel !!!

     I’m punting here, no links, no authority, just a feeling. ShonKey Python’s seen the writing on the wall already. (KDC above and Cunliffe of course). He’s not gonna hang around to lose. He’s bored. Democracy’s a bitch when you get into the confusing detail of it. Those New Zealanders seem not to be lying down to a smile anymore. Much more interesting to pick up the knighthood and cruise around being a gauche proslytiser for Her Madge.

     Such is the cheapness of the construct we know as The Right Honourable ShonKey Python Earl of Arselick.

     Judge Judy sits and knits.
     • North 6.2.1

       28 September 2013 at 12:17 am

       Sorry about double-up. Computer a bit non-compliant and wild cardish tonight.
   • David H 6.3

     28 September 2013 at 9:17 am

     “Wait until Cunliffe is whipping Key on a regular basis in parliament.”

     Then I think there will be a brief flurry of activity, and the New Nat leader will emerge with all the fanfare and excitement of a visit to the dentists.
7. Blue 7

   27 September 2013 at 5:59 pm

   Makes you want to cry thinking about how much time Labour wasted on Shearer.
   • Tangee 7.1

     27 September 2013 at 9:51 pm

     Just shows how out of touch MPs can be with the public and so much time wasted
   • David H 7.2

     29 September 2013 at 10:05 am

     Yes tears of Blood!
8. Steve 8

   27 September 2013 at 5:59 pm

   This is great news and demonstrates why the right were so vehemently anti-Cunliffe.

   With the H – bro’s scoring a couple of home goals this news rounds off a very good week.

   No time for complacency though – expect the full smoke and mirror set to be deployed by team Slippery.
   • karol 8.1

     27 September 2013 at 6:02 pm

     No time for complacency though – expect the full smoke and mirror set to be deployed by team Slippery.

     Yep. Shonkey’s been off on a refresher course on that.
9. Linz 9

   27 September 2013 at 10:23 pm

   iPredict:
   There will be a Labour Prime Minister after the 2014 General Election
   Probability: 50.0% ( up 0.02%)

   There will be a National Prime Minister after the 2014 General Election
   Probability : 49.1% (down 4.77%)

   Have a very nice weekend everybody.
   • jaymam 9.1

     28 September 2013 at 1:13 pm

     Yeah I used to be impressed by Ipredict. But if you look at the actual bets for 2014 Nat PM, most of the fluctuation is caused by bets of a few dollars. I could throw a few dollars away to influence Ipredict graphs. But I won’t.
10. ak 10

    27 September 2013 at 10:51 pm

    At eight nil ahead, it was simply inconceivable that even superior financial resources could scupper the proud kiwis’ march to victory……

    No rest yet, brothers and sisters. Crush every filthy Orewa One derivative (and there’ll be plenty) at birth: with all the venom it deserves. Then pound those pavements to the sun like there’s no tomorrow.

    Grab your one chance. Hammer the stake home, then join progressive history. For your and my beautiful wee ones.
    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      28 September 2013 at 8:10 am

      Well put!
11. xtasy 11

    28 September 2013 at 12:50 am

    Can we “garner” Garner a bit more to put him on the spit for a nice grilling? I would love to see his station suffer immensely under a new public broadcasting policy to be launched by a new Labour led government, which will be so overdue. The Nats have destroyed all sensible quality media in this country and seized on it to make the gutted remnants their propaganda mouthpieces!

    Is Garner waking up, or desperate to calm the dissent and “time they are a changin?”. Is he preparing to get employment in future public broadcasting.

    Anyway, getting to his poll tweeting, this sounds very interesting, and I wish it was true!!!

    That is what we need, a real “time they are a changin”!

    But to all now so excited Labourites, do NOT get over excited, the rise in the polls was to be expected. You must work on keeping the momentum going, full steam, and you must do all now, to HAMMER OUT the smart policies this country is “hungry” for!!!

    We cannot just rely on Kiwi Build, on that Power plan, and a bit here and there, more is needed, a total GAME CHANGER! Future policies, in economic development, science, research, trade, labour, local body and regional development, new, more sustainable and progressive energy policies, public transport expansion, environmental safeguarding, immigration, and do NOT forget, policies for the socially disadvantaged, please, which I fear, will once again be overlooked!

    Policy is the decisionmaker, not just much talk and a “war” on the goverment, get into POLICY, and that means a real PLAN for NZ, a future for ALL, and to get us AHEAD, not stuck and backward, thanks, I will celebrate with all of you, when we get this, best of luck anyway!

    I will continue to vote Green, as that is the better choice for me, but we must ALL work together, and WILL work together!
    • Dem Young Sconies 11.1

      28 September 2013 at 7:08 am

      +1

      This really is a strong mandate from the electorate for the complete repudiation of neo-liberalism. The 10% should fear the coming storm.
      We’re coming for ya!
      and yes, firm media control must be in the mix to end right wing bias.
      Goodbye Garner, goodbye Gower, goodbye Fairfax, goodbye Murdock.

      Nationalisation without compensation for the public good will be the call
      Banks, supermarkets, construction, energy generation & distribution, media, and other significant industries.

      It’s time for Cunliffe to get bold!

      Kiwibuild needs to be bolder, bigger, and be 100% State house builds
      NZ Power should be full, completely integrated nationalisation, not a half-way house – return to the Energy Board.
      The living wage is for all
      Full employment
      Abolish the GST
      Scrap benefits and replace them with the Universal Basic Income
      Set it at the living wage (so it becomes the defacto minimum wage)
      No more marginalisation of the most vulnerable in our society
      No income tax on the UBI – positive income tax kicks in from this point
      Set flat tax rate on income above UBI at 49%
      Align corporate and trust rates to ensure no rorts.
      Capital gains tax
      Reintroduce duty on imported goods
      Set-up a 100% State owned manufacturing industry
      Set-up a State construction & apprentaship scheme to power the State house build
      Tax private land
      Tax financial transactions
      Tax carbon pollutants
      Tax sugar & fat – and outlaw corporate fast food & drink
      Use the tobacco control model for alcohol, sugar, fat & caffeine.
      Free education and the UBI for students
      Abolish National standards, and close all non-State schools
      Increase the size of the State to improve the services it delivers, and to ensure full employment
      Implement a high-tech carbon neutral economy
      End ruminant farming immediately – cull all stock
      Ban the use of nitrates and other agricultural poisons
      End all mining, drilling & fracking
      Stop all road building and invest heavily in 21st century public transport solutions
      Phase out the use of private vehicles, once public transport can meet demand
      Try slippery and his cronies for the treason they have committed against the people
      Outlaw political groups of the far right

      Exciting times 🙂
      • karol 11.1.1

        28 September 2013 at 7:23 am

        love your list.
      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1.2

        28 September 2013 at 8:37 am

        The Local Government Rating Act 2002.
        7(1): All land is rateable.

        Would you really close all Montessori and Steiner schools?

        The tobacco model won’t work for alcohol because alcohol is easy to make. Alcohol abuse issues correlate to inequality; there are far more elegant solutions available.

        I expect any government of the left to uphold human rights, so outlawing political groups is off the table.

        How do you reconcile a high tech economy with the end of mining?
        • Colonial Viper 11.1.2.1

          28 September 2013 at 8:57 am

          Parts of the tobacco model will work just fine for alcohol. In thinking particularly of advertising bans, plain packaging, and stiffer enforcement of no use zones.
          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1.2.1.1

            28 September 2013 at 9:37 am

            None of those measures will address the causes of the problem.

            “Stiffer enforcement” – which we all know discriminates against younger adults. Set up the societal conditions that exacerbate substance abuse then punish those who succumb.
            • Colonial Viper 11.1.2.1.1.1

              28 September 2013 at 10:05 am

              You can feel free to address the societal “causes” of the problem (as you put it) over say the next 10-20 years. I’m merely remarking that steps to greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society, and without resorting to prohibition, are available, immediately implementable, and well understood.

              I’ll also add no alcohol outlet sales on Sundays, and no alcohol outlet sales after 8pm. Dropping the drink drive limit.

              I recommend that these measures are used immediately while you get on with changing the “societal conditions” that you think should be changed.
              • One Anonymous Knucklehead …

                28 September 2013 at 10:55 am

                “…greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society…”

                Debatable. Making alcohol harder to buy according to arbitrary calendar events like “Sunday” will have this effect will it? How do you know it won’t have a greater effect of a massive backlash against the nanny state?

                In the countries that have introduced these “well understood” measures (I’m sure you’ll be able to tell us which countries those are), what happened? How long did the social engineering take?
                • Colonial Viper …

                  28 September 2013 at 3:15 pm

                  Feel free to keep debating sociological theories as long as you would like. After all, National/Dunne ignored a large number of recommendations re: the alcohol industry, using the line that more research was needed.

                  I would hope that Labour doesn’t use the same line.

                  Making alcohol harder to buy according to arbitrary calendar events like “Sunday” will have this effect will it?

                  Maybe arbitrary calendar events like turning 18 don’t have any meaning for you in the alcohol debate either?

                  How about closing times, isn’t 2am or 3am or 4am just arbitrary markers of time?

                  And 80mg breathalyser limits, do they mean anything? why not 75mg? 85mg?

                  I mean, get a grip man and try and use a real argument.

                  How do you know it won’t have a greater effect of a massive backlash against the nanny state?

                  You think that the laissez faire side of governing is more your style? Help yourself mate.
                  • McFlock …

                    28 September 2013 at 6:26 pm

                    I think you’re confusing “arbitrary measures” with “measures based on evidence at the time according to increasing response:damage ratios and then mangled via the public policy process”. Eg 4am closing is associated with greater assault numbers than midnight closing.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 6:35 pm

                      and then mangled via the public policy process

                      Yes. That’s politics for you.
                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead …

                      28 September 2013 at 6:37 pm

                      McF, no, I’m questioning whether ambulances at the bottom of the cliff and Nanny’s big wagging finger will have the slightest effect on alcohol abuse.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 6:50 pm

                      McF, no, I’m questioning whether ambulances at the bottom of the cliff and Nanny’s big wagging finger will have the slightest effect on alcohol abuse.

                      Don’t make light of ideas for increased restrictions on alcohol use, sale and advertising. They can cut alcohol consumption and desirability immediately.

                      That’s why National/Dunne ducked the whole issue.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 6:57 pm

                      OAK – nah, I was talking to CV.

                      He’s off on one of his “ooo, we can just do anything if we ignore everything that humanity has learned about the issue to date – if I can say it in seven words, it must be achievable, and anyone who has actually ‘studied’ the topic is a slave to the zeitgeist” trips.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:05 pm

                      Hey McFlock.

                      I’m a supporter of increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol.

                      Perhaps you think additional deregulation is fine, maybe you think the current regime is perfect and need not be changed, maybe (like National/Dunne) you think that the answer is to do a few more years of research before doing anything; but those aren’t positions I subscribe to.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:13 pm

                      I’m a supporter of increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol.

                      Hey CV, so am I.

                      But beyond that bumper-sticker similarity between us, I don’t think you have any idea about the issues or effects of any specific regulatory change a google search throws your way. And that’s the sort of shit that creates more problems than it solves – six o’clock closing was followed by the seven o’clock wife thumping. Complete banning results in more power to the mob and an “in” for corruption. And you spinning that calling you a public policy idiot is the same as being a shill for the liquor industry is just more of your faith-based bullshit.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:16 pm

                      I haven’t mentioned any bans or prohibition mate, nor any 6pm closing rule.

                      However I am glad to hear that you are for the increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol in society. From what you have said I know that you understand that it would bring immediate and measurable public health benefits to NZ. I don’t know about your 12am closing idea however, it seems a bit too early.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:24 pm

                      Nor did I ever say I thought the current regime is perfect.

                      increased regulation of the use, advertising and sale of alcohol in society. From what you have said I know that you understand that it would bring immediate and measurable public health benefits to NZ.

                      Depending on the regulation, yes. Or maybe no, again depending on the regulation.

                      I don’t know about your 12am closing idea however, it seems a bit too early.

                      Ok, ignoring for the moment that it was an arbitrary mono-dimensional comparison between two regulatory options, let’s go with that. Why do you think that it’s too early?
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:32 pm

                      Well, the party is usually only starting at 12.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:35 pm

                      which says more about evolving social mores than anything else.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:41 pm

                      It’s been the case with parties that I’ve been going to since 14, so yeah, it’s been evolving.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:45 pm

                      One of these days you’ll get around to realising that not everybody in the country is exactly like you.
                  • One Anonymous Knucklehead …

                    28 September 2013 at 6:33 pm

                    According to you, it will take 10-20 years for changes in the GINI to flow into healthier attitudes to alcohol. According to you, we will “…greatly reduce the use and acceptability of alcohol in society…”, using changes to price and availability and “stronger enforcement”.

                    I think that it will take you a bit longer than 10-20 years, especially as you have the minor issue of being thrown out of office at the next election to contend with.

                    I know you don’t like that argument, but it is nonetheless a real one.

                    Inequality, not closing time, drives substance abuse.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 6:39 pm

                      hey mate, don’t twist my own words around and ignore my main point – that we can cut alcohol use in society immediately and measurably.

                      Meanwhile you go work on your inequality stuff. Let me know how many months you think it will take to sort out child poverty, for instance.

                      And not be accused of perpetuating the nanny state. And still be able to stay in Government.
                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead …

                      28 September 2013 at 6:53 pm

                      Price controls only affect moderate drinkers. Licensing enforcement exports problems to less well policed areas. The evidence on advertising is “inconclusive” – source – MoJ.

                      Meanwhile, there is an established link with the GINI.

                      I’m sure you mean well and all, I just don’t think the measures you’re proposing will be effective or popular.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 6:58 pm

                      Sorry, I happen to believe that increased controls on alcohol use, availability and pricing directly affect alcohol consumption. So does the Law Commission. So does the National Government and Peter Dunne.

                      Maybe you thought that National was right not to reduce the drink driving level etc. but I do not.

                      Feel free to pursue your improvements to GINI though, and the changes in alcohol abuse which might result as second and third order effects of that down the track.

                      Meanwhile, as McFlock pointed out, reducing opening hours now will reduce violent assaults and hospitalisations this weekend.

                      Price controls only affect moderate drinkers. Licensing enforcement exports problems to less well policed areas. The evidence on advertising is “inconclusive” – source – MoJ.

                      Yet hitting cigarette advertising is seen as effective and de riguer.

                      Frankly you sound like a right wing libertarian. Regulation is not effective, deregulation has no bad effects, and increased regulation is not likely to do a thing.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:03 pm

                      Meanwhile, as McFlock pointed out, reducing opening hours now will reduce violent assaults and hospitalisations this weekend.

                      in on-licences, and not if taken too far, because that just shifts the problem to preloading and binges when people purchase for the weekend. The problem-diversion issue is real.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:11 pm

                      I thought you said that 12am closing was supported by the evidence.

                      In fact here:

                      http://thestandard.org.nz/garner-tweets-on-what-he-was-told-was-latest-umr-poll-result/#comment-702853
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:15 pm

                      I know you did. That’s why discussing policy with you is so painful.
                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:19 pm

                      CV, prices have gone up, there is more enforcement than there was twenty years ago. Therefore the problem should have diminished by now, eh?

                      The fundamental difference between me and a Libertarian is that I want to see the evidence. I asked you to provide some, you failed, so I found a handy MoJ discussion paper, which discusses your assertions and cites evidence that undermines them, as if experience hadn’t already done so.

                      I’ve nothing against regulations when they work, but when they’re just there to appease social conservatives I can do without them.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:36 pm

                      I’m going to go with the Law Commission report as a good basis, not your MoJ discussion document.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:42 pm

                      cherry picking? Maybe they’re both good bases to take into account when developing policy.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:52 pm

                      Well good for you for being so open minded, mate.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 7:59 pm

                      It’s called “weight of evidence”.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 8:04 pm

                      well of course, that’s a completely unscientific notion introducing way too much subjectivity.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 8:10 pm

                      obviously, because you said so.

                      in the real world, however…

                      edit:Oh, you changed the line to something equally as trite.
                    • Colonial Viper …

                      28 September 2013 at 8:18 pm

                      Oh? You know of peer reviewed evidence demonstrating that decision making incorporating heuristics around the “weight of evidence” are superior?

                      I’d sure be keen to take a look at that evidence.

                      Because I’m sure that it’s not just because you said so.
                    • McFlock …

                      28 September 2013 at 8:29 pm

                      No, just pointing out that policy analysis comes under a BA, not BSc. It incorporates scientific evidence, but requires more subtlety than the binary thinking you are so fond of.

                      All information provides a piece of the picture, it’s willful blindness to simply choose one analysis document over another for no real reason. They all have factors to consider.
                    • Rogue Trooper …

                      28 September 2013 at 11:31 pm

                      debate grows more original down here.
                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead …

                      29 September 2013 at 9:01 am

                      Meanwhile you go work on your inequality stuff. Let me know how many months you think it will take to sort out child poverty, for instance.

                      And not be accused of perpetuating the nanny state. And still be able to stay in Government.

                      Measures to combat child poverty are in a completely different league than measures to scold people who take a drink while failing to change the behaviour of problem drinkers one iota.

                      So no, I don’t think food in schools will be seen in quite the same light as booze tax and compulsory bed-time. Electorally speaking, that is.
      • Populuxe1 11.1.3

        28 September 2013 at 6:13 pm

        “This really is a strong mandate from the electorate for the complete repudiation of neo-liberalism.”

        Ah, no. Labour is just a slightly kindler, gentler neoliberal party of the Blairite, Third Way type. Hello! David Parker is deputy leader! They support the TPPA and have been very slippery about National’s asset sales.
        • Colonial Viper 11.1.3.1

          28 September 2013 at 6:18 pm

          Ah, no. Labour is just a slightly kindler, gentler neoliberal party of the Blairite, Third Way type.

          Of course, that must be why National’s big business backers are so worried about Labour. It’s because Labour are just a slightly watered down National. Very worrying for the corporate set.
          • karol 11.1.3.1.1

            28 September 2013 at 6:26 pm

            I think the right may be afraid of losing control of the dominant narrative, as much as of the proposed policies.

            There looks to be a mood for change from the base and flax roots. Must be very worrying for the right that has controlled the dominant narrative for a few decades.
            • Colonial Viper 11.1.3.1.1.1

              28 September 2013 at 7:39 pm

              Exactly. A lot of latent/inactive Labour supporters have been waiting a long time for a Labour Party of principle that they could be proud of supporting. Looks like we might have one finally – maybe.

              And the Righties are very worried.
    • Steve 11.2

      28 September 2013 at 8:33 am

      Is Garner waking up, or desperate to calm the dissent and “time they are a changin?”. Is he preparing to get employment in future public broadcasting.

      This is a very interesting point xtasy. I noticed during the term of the third Clark government the mainstream media moved to the right and by the time the election arrived many were almost screaming “Vote National”.

      I think this move is just beginning to play out in reverse. It’s probably a combination of arse protecting and following public sentiment – not wishing to be on the wrong side of history. Neverless it is real and I believe we at that tipping point. This thing does have momentum.

      No time for complacency though as most mainstream media still have a neo-lib bias.
      • Pete 11.2.1

        28 September 2013 at 9:49 am

        Neverless it is real and I believe we at that tipping point. This thing does have momentum.

        I believe you’re right. The big mo is gathering behind the Left. I wouldn’t quite label Key as yesterday’s man just yet. But it does feel like time is running down on his administration.
      • lurgee 11.2.2

        28 September 2013 at 7:26 pm

        I think Garner, in common with most journalists, is simply eager to report the most interesting story first. To correct the supposed ‘neo-liberal bias’ Labour has to make sure it is that story, and in a good way.
        • Colonial Viper 11.2.2.1

          28 September 2013 at 7:31 pm

          +1
    • Lloyd 11.3

      28 September 2013 at 8:35 pm

      The Gnats may have eaten away at the edges, but they haven’t destroyed National Radio yet. There is still some good journalism there.
    • Sean Carroll 11.4

      28 September 2013 at 11:50 pm

      Great! But are you after neoliberal change, like Blair’s Thirds Way?
12. BrucetheMoose 12

    28 September 2013 at 8:46 am

    Once the times have changed, hopefully it might be more a case of Ray Charles’s advice for Johnny –
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8Tiz6INF7I
    • Chooky 12.1

      28 September 2013 at 3:51 pm

      Bruce the Moose…+1 … great song also! …especially for the two Johnnys (Key and Banks) of Nact!
13. Mary 13

    28 September 2013 at 12:24 pm

    Is Garner tweeting the truth all of a sudden? I’d wait for the poll to come out before I believed it.
    • Pascal's bookie 13.1

      28 September 2013 at 1:07 pm

      UMR does Labour’s private polling, so we won’t be seeing it. Next public poll is RM on wednesday, not sure when Reid/3news releases their next one.
      • Colonial Viper 13.1.1

        28 September 2013 at 3:31 pm

        If this was indeed Labour’s internal polling, UMR would not be briefing Garner on it.

        That is of course, unless UMR’s client directed them to do so.
        • Pascal's bookie 13.1.1.1

          28 September 2013 at 4:31 pm

          garner doesn’t claim to have got it from UMR 😉
          • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1.1

            28 September 2013 at 4:35 pm

            Ah-ha!
          • David H 13.1.1.1.2

            29 September 2013 at 10:15 am

            So in other words it’s a Gower/Garner special.
    • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 13.2

      28 September 2013 at 3:15 pm

      @ Mary,
      +1
      I have similar misgivings.
14. finbar 14

    28 September 2013 at 2:39 pm

    I am a recent user to this blog line.My political belief is in no way opposed to the harm of the blogs intention far from it.I do find though the censor a bit precious about others opinions that are not in line with their ideals,however fair the comment may be.

    [lprent: Read the policy. For the moderators, people’s opinions count for very little. Their behaviour both present and past counts for a lot. We find that having an active moderation policy keeps the sanctimonous arsehole population (whining about how we run the site) under control.

    I’ll be happy to demonstrate but perhaps you should first read the section in banning on darwin awards. ]
    • finbar 14.1

      28 September 2013 at 4:46 pm

      Are you infering im a arsehole..

      [Lprent: there was a word in front of it… Figure it out. ]
      • finbar 14.1.1

        28 September 2013 at 8:07 pm

        Aside from the front word whatever offended your dialect, escapes me,that what did you find not worthy of my comment about the direction of Labour, under Cunliffe!s direction.I think my comment, was a fair assumption.
        • finbar 14.1.1.1

          28 September 2013 at 8:23 pm

          Mind you the readers of this line will not read what i said.But Heh! aint control of the media a amazing tool.
          • QoT 14.1.1.1.1

            28 September 2013 at 11:15 pm

            Yes, not letting your irrelevant, off-topic crap derail our comment threads is totally the same as “control of the media”. 🙄
            • Rogue Trooper 14.1.1.1.1.1

              28 September 2013 at 11:34 pm

              sensor-ship
15. Tracey 15

    28 September 2013 at 4:32 pm

    Not convinced altho it cld explain sHooten up going rabbid.
16. lurgee 16

    28 September 2013 at 7:23 pm

    UMR used to do fortnightly polls but seemed to stop doing so earlier this year, which is a shame as they seemed to be very consistent. You can see their table on page 12, of the PDF below, they had National on 44-45% consistently for 2012. it’s a shame we don’t seem to have any more recent data, as if they are getting consistent results, this is really interesting. A huge chunk taken out of National, Greens still bubbling along nicely? And, crucially, Labour close enough to look like a credible governing party, rather than a distant second placer being jobbed into power by the third placer … That is very important in the long term, I think.

    http://umr.co.nz/sites/umr/files/umr_mood_of_the_nation_2013_online_0.pdf

    I have a horrible feeling I might be eating some humble pie. Oh well, gotta try everything once.
17. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 17

    29 September 2013 at 10:50 am

    I am a bit confused about when a leak from within Labour to Garner is a baseless lie (like the coup talk) and when it is a solid fact (such as a favourable poll result).

    I know it can’t be as simple as: good news for Labour is a fact and bad is a baseless lie, but I am just struggling to crack the code.
    • Craig GlenEden 17.1

      29 September 2013 at 11:32 am

      Ok this is the code if it came from Mallard its a baseless lie serving his own purpose.If its a leak that has positive implications for Labour and Garner is stating it publicly its going to be the truth. Simple code really.
18. Sable 18

    30 September 2013 at 10:47 pm

    Sorry nice thought but these spot polls are really not that useful as a measure of anything meaningful. Worse still they can lead to complacency which in this case is potentially dangerous. Keys is odious but he’s no fool and to underrate him and his regime is a mistake….

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