Guest post: Deconstructing yet another National has moral right to govern argument

Written By: - Date published: 9:15 am, October 11th, 2017 - 41 comments
Categories: election 2017, greens, internet party, labour, mana, national, spin, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

Despite its scholarly pretensions, The Spinoff feature Election 2017: a vote for the status quo by Dr Claire Robinson seems little more than a highly aggressive PR strategy for the National Party.

(Robinson = Massey Administrator, media pundit, “expert” in political marketing, former Academic & former Private Secretary to Jenny Shipley)

To defend her thesis that we’ve just witnessed a Status Quo election, Robinson deploys a series of carefully contrived strategies that look very much like the sort of intellectual sleight of hand you might expect from an enthusiastic connoisseur of political marketing.

In other words, she seems like a savvy lawyer employing all the tricks of the trade.

These strategies include:

(1) Fabrication

Concocting out of thin air the ludicrous notion that Labour were devastated by the Specials because (according to Robinson) they were fully expecting to pick up so many extra seats that they’d be able to govern alone with either the Greens or with New Zealand First in just a TwoParty Coalition

That fantasy allows her, in turn, to imbue Labour and the Left in a cloak of highly negative doom and gloom imagery – devastated losers after Specials set against the putative elation of a beaming Bill English and a winning National Party

Here’s Robinson for example:

Saturday’s final election results were, contrary to how they were received by some, a real blow for Labour. They didn’t pick up the number of special votes they hoped for. They can’t govern alone with the Greens. More importantly, they can’t govern alone with New Zealand First, which Labour would have been holding out hope for.

No wonder Bill English was beaming in the images at his stand up after the announcement of the final result, and Jacinda Ardern was looking grim, flanked by her equally grim looking ‘henchmen’ (her description) Grant Robertson and Kelvin Davis.

This is devastating for Labour.

(2) Misrepresentation

An absurd misrepresentation of the reasoning behind Jacinda Ardern’s claim that the election result constituted a mandate for change

Here’s Robinson

Jacinda must also know that her argument for still being at the negotiating table is baseless. She’s claiming she has the mandate for change on the grounds that “the majority of New Zealanders voted against the status quo”, and ‘the majority of New Zealanders voted for change”.

“Baseless” ? Why, Claire ? After all there are solid grounds for the notion that a majority voted against the status quo” Surely the reasoning underpinning Ardern’s claim revolves around the rather momentous fact that for the first time in the best part of a decade the 3 Opposition Parties collectively have a larger share of both votes and seats than the Govt Bloc (and indeed the broader Right Bloc)

2008
Govt lead Oppo by 7 points
Right lead Oppo by 7 points

2011
Govt lead Oppo by 5 points
Right lead Oppo by 8 points

2014
Govt lead Oppo by 5 points
Right lead Oppo by 9 points

2017
Oppo lead Govt by 4 points
Oppo lead Right by 4 points

A clear swing from the Govt Parties and broader Right Bloc to the Opposition giving the latter a majority of both votes and seats.

That would certainly be my interpretation of the rationale behind Ardern’s mandate for change claim supplemented by the fact that:

(a)  A majority of NZF supporters have preferred a Red rather than Blue Government since at least 2008 (if not earlier) (I’ll post more detail in the very near future),

(b)  Peters aggressively campaigned against the Nats & for change,

(c)  Significant policy overlap between Labour and NZF.

But no, without any shred of justification (for eg no further quotation of Ardern) Robinson takes it upon herself to choose the most unlikely of all interpretations – she simply decides to assume that Ardern’s mandate for change claim is premised entirely on the fact that National failed to receive more than 50% of the party vote.  Which, in and of itself, would certainly constitute a ludicrous basis for such a claim.  After all National failed to better the 50% mark through 2008-14 yet no one suggested these elections comprised a mandate for change (Which is why Ardern did no such thing)

But, of course, having set up this blatant Straw Man – it’s then little more than child’s play for Robinson to knock it down

She’s claiming she has the mandate for change on the grounds that “the majority of New Zealanders voted against the status quo”, and ‘the majority of New Zealanders voted for change”. In reality there has not been one election since MMP was introduced in 1996 where the ‘winning’ major party got over 50% of the party vote

Robinson then provides figures in a table that surprise surprise !!! – do indeed prove her always under 50% claim (that no one is in fact denying except deep within Claire’s vivid imagination).

(3) Inappropriate-Disingenuous Analytical Framework

She tightly inter-weaves
(a) this gross misrepresentation of Ardern’s argument with
(b) a relentlessly FPP-style comparative analysis of voter support over the various 1996-2017 MMP elections that studiously avoids any discussion whatsoever of broader Party Bloc support – a strategy that inevitably flatters the current National Party (pretty much the sole electoral vehicle for Right-leaning Status Quo voters) and thus massively inflates its claims to a moral right to govern.

Moreover, at 44.4%, National’s party vote is greater than Labour’s Party Vote in 1999, 2002 and 2005 — three elections where Labour was more than happy to overlook the fact they didn’t have a majority yet still claim they had the ‘mandate’ to lead the next government.

Yes Claire

(a) that would be due to the fact that while Labour received less than 44% of the Party Vote at those elections (39% = 1999 41% = 2002 41% = 2005) the other Parties that helped it form Govt (variously the Alliance Progressives NZF UF & Greens) gave it a combined weighting of 52% 50% & 51%, whereas National is currently bereft of chums.

(b) Labour + Greens = 43% (2017) is also greater than Labour’s Party Vote in 1999, 2002 and 2005.

(c) Once again, Ardern has never claimed that a Major Party receiving less than half the vote forfeits its mandate (that’s just in your imagination remember).

(4) Avoidance

Labour will have picked up votes from the Greens (who dropped by 94,916 votes), NZ First (who dropped by 21,594 votes), the Internet Mana party (who dropped 30,452). Until we see how votes moved in the NZ Election Study, we’d also have to add some Conservative votes. And Labour got a good proportion of the 175,417 new voters who didn’t vote in 2014.

But to be a vote for change = Labour would have had to get more votes than National. In fact National got 20,574 more votes in 2017 than it did in 2014. This is not evidence of a widespread vote to change the major party leading the government. This was a vote for the status quo.

Robinson desperately wants us to believe there’s been no swing away from National

The huge swing to Labour apparently derives from everyone except National.

Reality –
Right Bloc fell by 7 points
Govt Bloc fell by 3 points
National fell by 2.6 points
Labour up 11.8 points
Lab+Green up 7.4 points
Oppo up 5.9 points

So, in the context of the collapse of the 2nd strongest Party on the Right – the 4% Conservatives – (whose supporters were overwhelmingly former Nats & other Right Party voters and who strongly favoured a National led government in 2011 & 14 – NZES) = the Nats Party-Vote should’ve soared by 3-4 points rather than fallen by 2.6 points (that’s if you want to argue Claire that they’ve essentially held their own)

Don’t tell Claire but I think it’s safe to assume a Tory to Labour swing.

Swordfish 

41 comments on “Guest post: Deconstructing yet another National has moral right to govern argument ”

  1. Pat 1

    “(Robinson = Massey Administrator, media pundit, “expert” in political marketing, former Academic & former Private Secretary to Jenny Shipley)”

    theres a surprise…….not

    • Cinny 1.1

      That sentence said it all to me, I didnt know she had been a bosun to the ship,

      What’s the ship doing now, exploiting our water via oravida among other things.

      Now knowing she had worked for ship gives me a clear understanding of the spin Robinson is producing.

      PS Swordfish, love your work, thanks so much for all the effort you put into it

      • Sacha 1.1.1

        Imagine if media organisations told you the backgrounds and affiliations of pundits each time they broadcast their reckons to us?

        • Cinny 1.1.1.1

          Yes please 😀 Would rather a bit of honesty and transparency, instead of hand picked backgrounds.

          Every weekend I tune into The Nation & Q+A, but not once have i heard Robinson referred to as the former private secretary of the ship, which i would have thought was an important detail to mention about a person making political comments on nationwide telly.

          • NewsFlash 1.1.1.1.1

            Cinny

            Thanks for that link last night to Peters budget reply speech, Winston said that it would be Joyces last budget and the metaphor that “National better not even dream about winning the next election, if they do they should wake up and apologise”.

            It was scathing attack at National, but I wonder if he was genuine enough to follow through, if he reneges on his comments, the media and others will have a field day which he may not be able to recover from.

            • Cinny 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Your are very welcome Newsflash 😀

              Have seen many examples of NZ1st backing up the opposition parties and vice versa, at question time over the years, they didn’t have to, but there seems to be plenty of policy overlap, and Winston does stick up for MP’s that are being treated unfairly in the house, whether it be by the nats or carter (looking forward to seeing the back of that speaker).

              Some of the MPs Winston appears to dislike in Parliament are on the Nat party talk team. Policy is so very important, but so is the person delivering it and there’s been a fair bit of dodgy from senior nat’s over recent years, dodgy didn’t exit with keys departure.

              Just my opinion based on what I’ve seen watching question time

              All I want for NZ for Christmas is a government and ministers that we can feel proud of.

  2. gsays 2

    Thanks swordfish for your mahi on this.

    I enjoy and trust your missives on this and other voter behaviour topics.

  3. red-blooded 3

    She also argues that when there’s a genuine mood for change it shows up in opinion polls a year or so before the election. Of course, what she’s ignoring here is that Labour was under different leadership a year or so out from the election. I’d argue that the huge swelling of support, of funding and of volunteers after the leadership change showed that there was discontent simmering away, it’s just that (for whatever reason) people didn’t see Labour as a viable option until Ardern stepped forward. We’ve never had a leadership change in an opposition party this close to the election before, so comparisons with previous years aren’t as straightforward as Robinson seems to think.

  4. ianmac 4

    Would Newsroom consider Swordfish’s column as part of its stable of straight journalistic truths?

  5. Stuart Munro 5

    The Gnats have a strong moral mandate to “go forth and multiply”.

  6. As soon as you mentioned former Private Secretary to Jenny Shipley , the antennae went up and I started smelling a dead corpse in the room.

    Of all the most loathsome characters besides Ruth Richardson and Roger Douglas this Claire Robinson had to do with it had to be ( ugh ) the treasonous Jenny Shipley.

    You don’t work as Private Secretary to Jenny Shipley and not get terminally tainted with the foul stench of neo liberalism.

    Don’t worry , Claire, … Winston Peters has a long memory and in that memory is the unpleasant recollections of Shipley.

    Take from that what you will…

  7. Anne 7

    This analysis of Swordfish’s is worthy of wider dissemination than just the Standard.

    • Shona 7.1

      Agreed Anne. I was just wondering if Swordfish was remotely interested in having a go at disseminating Prebble’s diatribe in yeaterday’s Herald. Gobsmacking in it’s depths of ignorance it was!

  8. Michelle 8

    bill claims he has the moral high ground but does he actually have any morals lets see how much he is prepared to swallow to have his last shot at being PM

    • tracey 8.1

      Michelle, I agree. In all this talk of moral mandates no one has addressed the immorality of the election tactics displayed by Joyce and English, and key before them. It seems morality is off the table in all things politics except when Nats need morality to bolster its cling to power.

      I remain hopeful that Peters is making this point to the negotiators across the table… “how do I know I can trust you when you say that Bill (Steven etc) ad infinitum?” And if we are all lucky someone is recording their answers and it will be leaked.

  9. Clair Robinson has long challenged the reputation of Massey University

    as being a credible centre of learning and independent thought

    • tracey 9.1

      It does not help when Spinoff don’t do full disclosure. When you click her name you get

      “Claire Robinson

      Claire Robinson is professor of communication design and pro vice-chancellor, Toi Rauwharangi College of Creative Arts, Massey University”

      which only makes one wonder why she would be writing, unless it was for a creative short story competition.

      Was she with Shipley as creative communicator when the Nats ran the “but you don’t have children” line against Clark?

  10. mac1 10

    Great article.

    The descriptor of Ardern’s support team as ‘ henchmen’ is at best lazy writing (similar to all union officials being union ‘bosses’) and more probably a clear indicator of innate bias by Ms Robertson.

    Not the usual vocabulary of a university academic.

    From the Google dictionary
    “henchman
    noun
    derogatory
    a faithful follower or political supporter, especially one prepared to engage in crime or violence by way of service.
    “the dictator’s henchman””

    I don’t think ‘henchman’ is being used in its older meaning as the attendant of a Scottish chieftain, somehow.

    • red-blooded 10.1

      To be fair, she did put “henchmen” in quote marks and clarify – “(her term)” – that she was quoting Ardern (who will have used the term in a jovial way).

      And she’s not writing an academic paper – it’s an opinion piece, intended for general consumption. So, argue with her analysis and interpretation – great – but zeroing in on this one word isn’t helpful.

      • mac1 10.1.1

        Fair points, red-blooded. The bracketed “her description” was in the original text and was not swordfish’s interpolated comment. as I (mis)read it.

        Lesson for self to read the original text before commenting.

  11. cleangreen 11

    National = MSM control centre. = S Joyce = head of propaganda. = MBIE is HQ for S Joyce war bunker.

  12. Bearded Git 12

    nice post swordy baby….comprehensively destroys the Robinson trash that i read with blood boiling

  13. lprent 13

    When I saw that article my antenna for political lying flared like a flame. And that was what I intended to write as soon as I got time.

    I have say that swordfish wrote a much better and temperate post about ms robinson’s gross intellectual dishonesty than I would have.

    Thanks.

  14. NZJester 14

    The Maori party paid big time for having supported National by being knocked out of parliament.
    From what I have heard more of the people that voted for Winston want him to go with Labour than National.
    If he does go with National it will be bad for his party vote numbers at the next election.
    Any chance they can National will stab in in the back anyway.

  15. CHCOff 15

    All the same, the prudent course of action for a potential Lab-NZ1st-G govt would be carving up the National support block between themselves for the present and future arrangements, with realism to how that would apply for the different elements their party’s represent in current standing; with moderate policy baby steps in a different vision of New Zealand society overall, alongside a few bold initiatives that will give the most positive value in ability to govern differently in the mind of the population – other than that, applying band aids to paper over the cracks in a semi train wreck state of affairs is the pragmatic political reality of that current situation.

  16. cathy 16

    but do you see the headline on the herald page –

    “Coalition talks: NZ First, National ‘making huge progress’ ”

    this would make you believe NZF and Nats are nearly reaching a deal, right?

    but when you get to read the article, it’s just the same old winston-speak. every time he comes out of a meeting with either party he claims huge progress. all it means this time is he has finished this morning’s meeting with the nats and is about to go into the meeting with labour.

    after that he will claim huge progress again.

    but i bet you don’t see a herald headline that says “Coalition talks: NZ First, Labour ‘making huge progress’ “

    • Oooo no , – cant have that . Instead we read of the Greens being snubbed or ‘left out of negotiation talks’…

      All designed to give the impression a Labour / Green / NZ First coalition isn’t going to be happening…

      When the reality is the terms are NZ First and Labour negotiate , as Shaw has said , he trusts Adern and Labour and that they are doing a good job…

      Two quite different scenarios…

      So much for ‘ unbiased’ NZ media…

      • cleangreen 16.1.1

        Yep Wild Katipo.
        MSM are relying on ‘perception’ ruling our minds for sure but at 73 I’m not being conned by these crooks.

  17. tracey 17

    Great analysis Swordy. Please do submit it to Spinoff. If they are taking opinion pieces from creative communication lecturers why not you?

  18. DSpare 18

    Which party got the most votes does become relevant again if NZF decides on the cross benches and to abstain on Confidence and Supply votes. Nat + ACT = 57, LAb + Grn = 54 => NAct wins again (though they would have to be careful about framing issues such as the TPPA as C&S votes).

    Peters and his party have tactical reasons to shun any formal coalition deal with anyone. Peters simply hasn’t given himself enough time to safeguard any policy gains by NZF within a detailed and prescriptive coalition document, as he did in 1996. Historically, Peters also has ample reason to feel wary about going into a coalition with either major party. Twice before, formal coalitions have ended in disaster for NZF…

    A confidence and supply (or abstention) arrangement with a minority government might also make NZF’s long term survival far more likely. Certainly, NZF would be better placed to join forces with a Labour/Greens government in 2020 if it hadn’t been in bed with National for the preceding three years.

    http://werewolf.co.nz/2017/10/is-winston-peters-our-best-current-defence-against-market-extremism/

  19. Cantabrian 19

    I can’t find a record of Robinson’s qualifications. What is her Phd in – spin?

  20. Philj 20

    Robinson has always been been a Nat. Just listen to her and it becomes quite clear. IMO, her oped fails the academic purity test. Good work Swordfish.

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    3 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The bewildering world of Chris Luxon – Guns for all, not no lunch for kids
    .“$10 and a target that bleeds” - Bleeding Targets for Under $10!.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.This government appears hell-bent on either scrapping life-saving legislation or reintroducing things that - frustrated critics insist - will be dangerous and likely ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • Expert Opinion: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
    3 days ago
  • Manufacturing The Truth.
    Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet –  is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
    3 days ago
  • A Powerful Sensation of Déjà Vu.
    Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
    3 days ago
  • Can you guess where world attention is focussed (according to Greenpeace)? It’s focussed on an EPA...
    Bob Edlin writes –  And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Further integrity problems for the Greens in suspending MP Darleen Tana
    Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Greens’ transparency missing in action
    For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus with six newsey things at 6:46am for Saturday, March 16
    TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan Simeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • How Did FTX Crash?
    What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Elections in Russia and Ukraine
    Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s six stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15
    TL;DR: Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it:  We want our country to be a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • National’s clean car tax advances
    The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Government funding bailouts
    Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Two offenders, different treatments.
    See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
    Ele Ludemann writes  – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
    What was that judge thinking? Peter Williams writes –  That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
    Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
    It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • That Word.
    Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
    It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
    Open access notables A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in ...
    5 days ago
  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
     Buzz from the Beehive   The text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary.  It can be quickly analysed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
    For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
    Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
    Questions need to be asked on both sides of the world Peter Williams writes –   The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
    Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
    I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
    Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
    How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop: The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
    5 days ago
  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
    The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
    Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
    The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
    6 days ago
  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
    Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
    Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • There’s a name for this
    Every year, in the Budget, Parliament forks out money to government agencies to do certain things. And every year, as part of the annual review cycle, those agencies are meant to report on whether they have done the things Parliament gave them that money for. Agencies which consistently fail to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Government moves to quickly ratify the NZ-EU FTA
    "The Government is moving quickly to realise an additional $46 million in tariff savings in the EU market this season for Kiwi exporters,” Minister for Trade and Agriculture, Todd McClay says. Parliament is set, this week, to complete the final legislative processes required to bring the New Zealand – European ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 hour ago
  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
    ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland  Acknowledgements and opening  Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho.  Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau  My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
    Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024  Acknowledgements and opening  Morena, Nga Mihi Nui.  Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau  Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
    The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee.  “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government delivering on tax commitments
    Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today.  “The Amendment Paper represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
    Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government classifies drought conditions in Top of the South as medium-scale adverse event
    Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
    The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced.  “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level.   “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
    Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
    Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.  “Lower fruit and vege ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government backs rural led catchment projects
    The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Commission’s advice on ETS settings tabled
    Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government lowering building costs
    The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trustee tax change welcomed
    Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Minister’s Ramadan message
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