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- Date published:
10:06 am, November 28th, 2023 - 130 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, families, health, media abuse, poverty, winston peters -
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Two days into the new Government and National already has three bush fires that threaten to extinguish any good will that a new Government can normally expect to have following an election win.
The first is its extraordinary decision to consider the roll back of smoke free reforms. There will be some money earned through tobacco excise tax increases but greater levels of cancer and in the medium to long term increased pressure on the health system.
As said by Bernard Hickey:
The newly sworn-in Cabinet will today consider how to quickly unwind anti-smoking changes legislated at the end of last year in order to save hundreds of millions of dollars a year in tobacco taxes so it can go ahead with its income tax cuts.
But the cost to the taxpayers and citizens in purely financial terms, let alone the estimated loss of 580,000 Health Adjusted Life Years (HALYs), is set to surpass $10 billion. For every dollar in tax cuts delivered to landlords and salary earners by pushing tobacco taxes back up, Treasury has estimated health and lost productivity costs of up to 20 dollars.
The second is news that low income families will be hit by a decision to abandoning the promised Working for Families abatement adjustment. The original promise by National was to increase the abatement level from $42,000 to $50,000 meaning that those within that bracket would receive more. But this has been reversed.
As pointed out by Susan St John at the Daily Blog:
There were two promises in National’s original plan for Working for Families: an extra $25 a week from the In Work Tax Credit (IWTC) from 1 April at an annual cost of $190m; and a lift in the abatement threshold from $42,700 to $50,000 though not until 2026 with an eventual annual cost of $250m.
But their promise of a lift in the threshold was far too little, far too late. It is absolutely critical that the massive disincentives to earn more faced by low-income families are addressed immediately.
Instead, the visionless incoming Coalition government will save money to help pay for promised tax cuts by abandoning abatement threshold increase, saving $550m in total over 4 years to 2027/28. The $25 increase in IWTC remains from 1 July 2024.
An increase in lung cancer rates and a decrease in the amount that working families receive so that tax credits for landlords can be put in place tells you everything you need to know about the priorities of this Government. Your blood should be boiling by this stage and it is only two days in.
But it is the style of Government that should be causing the most concern.
Because Winston Peters is picking fights with the media in a style that has been perfected by Donald Trump. And his targets include organisations who I would class as normally tending to be very helpful for the right. Like Newshub:
These attacks on the poor and culture wars on Te Reo are going to become weary very quickly.
And Peters’ statements are gross distortions also known as lies and are being called out by none other than Jenna Lynch. Her anger in the clip above was palpable.
The Public Interest Journalism Fund was an urgent measure introduced during the Covid lockdowns to keep media going. And it succeeded. As for claims that it made media more sympathetic to the Government I am still waiting to see any evidence of this.
And the Government plans to give Wellington a Christmas present of mass redundancies of public servants.
This is no John Key style hog the centre and sell off a few power companies style National. It feels more like Ruth Richardson mixed with a helping of Donald Trump.
This is going to tax Christopher Luxon’s leadership skills. I get the feeling he will be found wanting.
Winston is doing what Winston does.
The Nats hated him when in government last time and when he sided with Labour in 2017. Key and Bridges both refused to ever work with him. He attacked the Nats in a way that got under their skin and was amusing to watch.
He's your enemy until he's not, and now the roles are reversed.
I think his attack on the media won't upset anyone other than the media. Both the left and right feel the media supports the other side. Just look at the cesspit which is Twitter/X to see that the left believe we lost because of the media narrative.
The right and Winston are now coming out swinging against the media too. Its calculated but I think most people enjoy the media getting push back.
On the other hand, he could be a handy pair of apron strings for Luxon to cling to, when necessary…
Or, in other terms, the left’s secret weapon…
Not a feeling, an absolute certainty!
'I get the feeling he will be found wanting.'..It's a 'k' not a 't'.
John Campbell is a brave man. Here is his first reaction to the events of the past few days but before yesterday’s developments:
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/11/25/john-campbell-i-hoped-to-be-surprised-actually-im-amazed/
He had better watch it. He’ll be down the road before long. Right wing pollies possess a brand of spite and revenge against their critics that could match that of the planet’s most famous despots.
I wouldn't call it brave – I'd call it principled, and being sent down the road would be for John both water-off-a-duck's-back and grist for the mill.
I'd call him both. Brave because these types will go to extraordinary lengths to destroy reputations – to the point of dragging in the SIS and the police as they have done in the past. Principled because he's still willing to stick his neck out above the parapet.
Anne, I think that the right wing politicians spite is actually only matched by the left wing politicians spite.
The most vile individual I have ever met was a PSA activist when I worked for a government department. He was almost matched by a cousins wife, who lived of my family’s money, and worked briefly for my father and uncle’s business, before she was sacked. That’s another story that I won’t get into here.
Unfortunately it’s the people in the middle that have to pick and choose to avoid being governed by increasingly left wing or right wing ideologues who never let practical reality get in the way of unworkable ideas.
A lot of people do get sick of “woke” or “PC” policies, or idea. I’ve had a young woman at my work taken to task for not having her pronouns on her email signature, another young woman casually mentioned that she had gone to a friend’s “gender reveal” baby shower one weekend, she faced a complaint from another team member for being “transphobic”. I received a SMS (regarding possible side effects from the vaccination I’d recently received) , from an organisation (te whatu ora?) that I’d never heard of. It turned out to be from the ministry of health, I mentioned it at work just wanting to know if anyone knew who it was, only to have some busybody from our “rainbow mafia” as I called them complaining to HR about me.
A lot of people feel that the “woke brigade” are more interested in winding people up, than actually achieving anything.
Some people are justifiably concerned that if they disagree with certain things that they will get into trouble.
A good friend of mine is Jewish, I’ve been invited to a bat mitzvah (sorry not my day for spelling) this coming weekend. I dare not mention this at work because as we know anything Jewish/Israeli will get frowned upon. He by the way has had casual passive aggressive comments recently. His children are scared about being outed or accused of being Jewish by left wing activists at their school. A teacher basically suggested that they condemn Israel, or accept the consequences.
We had a young Green Party supporter wanting other young people at my workplace to take a photo of their vote, so they would know who voted “correctly” and who didn’t. Fortunately I was able to crack down on that (because it is illegal) but I still had the guy in question complain to HR.
I’ve increasingly had a difficult time to keep some “woke” activists from “policing” young people at my workplace. Just about every one on one I now have, someone will mention that they are fearful of saying the wrong thing, and it’s the young people just as much as the guys my age. Especially the women.
What has any of that got to do with John Campbell's article?
You seem to be hung up on the word "woke".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woke#:~:text=Woke%20is%20an%20adjective%20derived,justice%2C%20sexism%20and%20LGBT%20rights.
The only people who seem to have a problem with the word are right-wing jerks and dim bulbs who like to attribute it to all manner of meanings it does not have.
No, most people hate intersectional theories of social justice.
People vote for left wing parties for wages, houses, poverty and to reign in capitalism.
But everytime we vote for the left instead of getting any of that we get a bunch of power mad green hair librarian types obsessed with gender race and sexuality telling everyone what to do, say and think.
This is why the left are stuffed globally atm, it is obsessed with social justice and absolutely alergic to economic justice.
Bollocks.
Apart from introducing legislation to correct a few injustices, they made no further comment as far as I'm aware. Almost all of the argy-bargy came from individuals and groups linked to the LGBT movement.
As to your claim of economic justice… once again you have no idea what you are talking about. What we are about to experience is going to destroy everything Labour had successfully achieved in that arena. There was always more to do but, what with the pandemic and the massive flooding incidents, they ran out of time.
You need to sit down and sort the facts from the fiction.
Anne.
Thanks Corey for summing it up perfectly. This is why I vote left and always will. I cannot stand the baggage that comes with it and I often cannot stand some of the people that go with it. People busily mansplaining to women what a woman is. People replacing "pray the gay away" with "trans the gay away" and pretending it's an improvement and not just another iteration of rank homophobia. People calling anyone with a different view a Nazi.
I came so close to not voting Green but in the end I held my nose and did it. It's an endorsement of the James Shaw / Degrowth / anticapitalist wing, and I guess I have to deal with the bullshit people that tend to hang around him
Anne.
IMHO several positions and policies and established laws (passed by Lab/Green) fall into the category of "woke" and are also profoundly anti-progressive. These include:
I'm left-wing, and not dim. And I voted left. We lost this election because if you insult and denigrate left-wing people like me by telling them that they are actually stupid righties, eventually a proportion of them will vote accordingly.
Big problem there. They never did any of those things. It was all part of a grossly over embellished backlash by a bunch of naysayers who wanted to pick fights on spurious grounds. A bit like the anti Covid/vaccine naysayers who dreamt up all manner of theories that had no bearing in reality.
The text of the Gender self-ID and Conversion Therapy bill is public, as is the list of people and groups who were consulted. Key women’s rights groups were not included.
In Gender self-ID, Speak Up For Women were insulted and denigrated by both Labour and Green politicians in a select committee, while SUFW were literally begging for the content of their submission to be addressed (it was not). Women were assaulted by a mob in broad daylight for wanting to meet and discuss women's rights. This is misogyny.
For the conversion therapy bill, it is now illegal to do anything other than affirm. So, an autistic 15yo girl with multiple co-occurring mental health issues can state "I'm trans and I want to medically transition" and it is illegal to ask questions about that. Most of those kids would just grow up to be gay if they are just left alone and told that they are perfect just as they are. This is homophobia.
For sports, Laurel Hubbard (who was a middle-aged and mediocre weightlifter before transition) took medals off two Samoan women who had trained for most of their lives so that they could come second to someone who (according to the precepts of their culture) is a man.. a point noted by the Samoan PM at the time.
These things did happen. The fact that they aren't important to you isn't the point, and your casual dismissal of the genuinely held opinions of other left-wing people is part of the problem. And please don't try to imply that I am an anti vaxxer.
Case in point That_guy: "I'm left-wing, and not dim."
I never said you were. But if you are going to incorrectly characterise certain "positions" and "policies" by the Labour government and introduce others that didn't exist except in the overblown imaginations of some individuals, then you can expect to be pulled up on it.
I think some aspects of identity politics and "wokery" are bad ideas and electoral disasters for the left, which I am part of. There's a very clear implication in your words, that people who hold such opinions are either dim or right-wing.
I repeat what I said @ 3.2.1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woke#:~:text=Woke%20is%20an%20adjective%20derived,
What you and others are guilty of… is applying mischievous interpretations which have no bearing on the true meaning of the word.
I'm proud to declare that I am woke because I deplore racial prejudice and racial discrimination. That is why I marched in 1981 against the Springbok tour.
Terry started it with a diatribe that was not imho related to the subject matter of the post. He picked out one word "woke" from an article by John Campbell which was related to the post and turned it into a muck fest about…. well, I'm not sure what to be honest.
I see there is another such diatribe which I will not waste my time reading.
Thanks Anne, your casual dismissal of the lived experience and genuinely held views of others is noted, as is your lack of understanding that words can have different meanings in different contexts and can change over time.
To many people, “woke” now means “having your opinions, thoughts and communications judged and controlled” and “being told you are evil for having opinions that were perfectly legitimate and solidly left-wing a decade ago”.
Like believing that men do not and cannot speak for women. Like believing that colourblindness is a positive thing. Like believing that obsessing about identity is divisive and electorally suicidal.
and that’s why this rant is a legit part of the discourse on this site. It’s a site for getting the left elected. Part of that is honest analysis of where we went wrong.
Hi Anne, one of the indicators of a newish employee not being able to come up to speed so to speak, is their unwillingness to accept responsibility for their actions and to blame others or our systems. They also have trouble understanding differing views and opinions.
My best employees will seek feedback, will accept feedback and take responsibility for their actions, even if they go through embarrassment of accountability for their actions. Generally these people rapidly grow into the role, and become ready to take on responsibility and more challenging roles.
My biggest problem are those employees who won’t accept feedback, accept responsibility, listen to the opinions of others. These people go nowhere.
Anne, I can only go on my life experience and from what I hear from others.
I manage a team of people who are leaders of other teams. I have regular 1 on 1 meetings with my direct reports. The way I run these is a bit like a confession. What we discuss is between the two of us and the almighty. I also make a point of having a meeting with all other employees that report to my team. Again these are closed door meetings and confidential.
From time to time issues arise, we in NZ do have a really shitty bullying culture. Increasingly over the past few years self appointed busybodies along with the “diversity, woke and rainbow” mafia have been policing people in the workplace. They “threaten” some people if they don’t have “pronouns” on their email signature (company policy is that it’s optional) for example, or a young woman who goes to her friends baby shower gets negative comments because they know what the gender is…. Someone is concerned about their Jewish friend, you can’t mention that or they get a nasty comment. A young guy comes from a farming family, he gets comments about that, the list goes on. I’m able to do something about it, however it creates a climate of fear. Especially when people are looking for promotion or moving to another area. They get the message that they will be “informally black listed” again this can’t officially happen, but people are concerned.
The blame for this is levelled at the left, so Labour & Greens. This may not be a reality, but it’s what many people believe.
All the people who work for me, want to have a good and rewarding career, get paid well and be successful. In general most people really just pay lip service to many of the “woke ideas” because they need to avoid the unpleasantness of the “woke busybodies” if anything they are becoming more socially conservative, but will only say so when they’re amongst those who they trust. The reason for this is that they do not trust or respect people who they believe are bullies. This should not be a surprise to anyone. Most people dislike hypocrisy and are turned off by it. Especially if it is coming from someone who supposedly stands for social justice. People may accept hypocrisy from NZ First & National, because it’s what is expected.
I’m fairly sure many of the younger people who work within my business unit would probably naturally be left voters, at least publicly, but increasingly what I’ve heard is that ACT is appealing to them, but they would never say this openly.
Don’t ever forget that who anyone votes for is between themselves and the almighty. It’s not uncommon for someone to say publicly they voted for one party, but actually voted another.
Thanks for that, it’s concerning.
Hopefully this site will become somewhere where we can not only address the many things the right is doing horribly wrong but also to have some honest conversations about what we (the left) did wrong. We did, after all, lose. I was hoping that the difference between left and right is that we on the left are capable of critically analysing our own positions and policies. Time will tell.
Cool story bro, but I thought you were off to a bar mitzvah?
/
It’s for his daughter, bat for girls, bar for boys, I believe, and the variety of types of Jewish religions, is as varied as Christian religions. I’m not Jewish or any other religion so my knowledge is limited, along with my spelling abilities
Like I said, cool story[ies], bro.
That is a disturbing list.
Seems to me you should worry less about the people who might be offended by an action or utterance of yours, and more – sometimes much more – about the interfering p***ks who decide they should get angry on those people's behalf.
I genuinely haven’t worried about what people have said in the past. However recently certain types of people complain about what other people do/say etc and unfortunately HR start talking an interest. Even for me with my experience with employment issues, it’s becoming a concern personally, & I have a good team with a number of younger people who are frightened of getting into trouble for reasons that shouldn’t ever be a concern for me as a manager or the business we work for.
I agree. It’s merchants intruding into areas which are actually about morals, as if the HR department of a corporation has the duty and right to determine and enforce those morals.
There are probably many reasons for that but I think the main one is: corporations and CEOs want to appear progressive but do not want to spend any money doing it, and certainly do not want to do anything fundamental. By “fundamental” I mean things like “going not-for-profit like Patagonia” or “linking the wage of the lowest paid worker to the CEO’s salary” or “committing to a limit on the gap between the lowest and highest paid worker”.
In contrast, insisting on email pronouns (and sanctioning non-compliers) gives corporations more power over workers and is incredibly cheap.
The religious Right in America loved Trump's lies.
Luxon will love Winston's.
Thanks to Alwyn, I downloaded the NACT coalition agreement. One of the conditions reads:
"Work to replace fuel excise taxes with electronic road user charging for all vehicles, starting with electric vehicles" (my italics).
I get the main point of the condition. Don't agree with it, but get it. But why the insistence on starting with electric vehicles, when the whole world is gearing up for a shift? Another example of a rollback vis-a-vis the rest of the world is linked to one of the subjects of this article:
"Repeal the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Smoked Tobacco) Amendment Act 2022 to remove the requirements for denicotinisation and the reduction in retail outlets." Isn't that another way of saying putting tobacco back on the shelves?
Politics is like a pendulum. For the sake of democracy, sometimes you have to tolerate the pendulum swinging to the opposite side of the clock face and tolerate policies you don't agree with that are based on someone else's world view. But, it seems to me, much of what's in these agreements are in the face of global trends from all world views and I can't see anything other than self-indulgent motivations for doing so.
What am I missing?
It's notable that the NACT and National-NZF agreements include such as this.
National opposed the reduction from retail outlets selling tobacco from 6000 to 600 in the parliamentary vote on the legislation.
It seems to be adopting a strategy of offloading the policies that cause harm onto support partners.
It is however still the main actor acting as a service to big corporate tobacco and also catering to businesses that retail nicotine addiction. Presumably the same will occur for alcohol and gambling outlets that have a similar customer demographic.
Their other policies ensure payday loans type businesses will also flourish.
One wonders whether they will also stymie efforts to reduce salt and sugar intake in processed and the availability of healthy food in schools.
A case can be made that the government is an occupation regime engaged in ethnic cleansing – reduce the life span or force emigration to Oz (via lower wages and higher rents) of the indigenous poor.
"One wonders whether they will also stymie efforts to reduce salt and sugar intake in processed and the availability of healthy food in schools."
Of course they will! Did it before, didn't they? (Sorry, can't remember exactly when, or other details, but I do remember feeling wild about it.)
RUC for all vehicles is an excellent move. Helps show the truth of where and when roads are generally used. Also a really easy step from that to broader fleet tracking (eg taxis, Uber, trucks, rentals, corporate cars), and then on to point-to-point cameras for congestion charging.
Focusing on electric vehicles with RUC is important, since with no tax on their fuel they don't contribute to funding the road network and pt network which is what the excise tax gets used for.
We could certainly have done with two more terms that encouraged electric car uptake though. It was going great. And so important since we have one of the oldest car fleets in the developed world and in part resulting in one of the world's worst accident and fatality rates.
“This is going to tax Christopher Luxon’s leadership skills. I get the feeling he will be found wanting.”
Luxon was found wanting when he failed the DP test. He wasn’t strong enough to make a decision then. Winston and Seymour now own him.
What do you mean he wasn't strong enough to decide?
They are not in his party so had no right to decide. He has no control over them other than what was negotiated and agreed in the Coalition Agreements.
There is a lot to criticise him about but lets be accurate in what he actually has control of.
"There is a lot to criticise him about but lets be accurate in what he actually has control of."
Luxon had way more control over the outcome of the coalition talks than you're acknowledging. His lack of experience has put him in the position he's in. He could've easily rejected some of the ACT/NZF demands, removing Te Reo from government communications being one of the most obvious (and insidious) ones he's misread. Heck, even Trish Sherson thinks it’s dangerous.
If Luxon had put his foot down on the Te Reo issue Peters probably would've capitulated, and if he hadn't, Luxon would've had the angels on his side to draw a line saying "no, this is not the NZ I'm going to lead, we cannot have this lunatic in parliament, it's unfortunate but back to the polls we go", and Peters would've resembled more closely the clown that he is.
But no, Luxon's eye was on the prize regardless the cost, and that cost will be stratosherically high. The Te Reo in government departments issue, while being presented as something relatively minor, is anything but minor. If Trish Sherson isn't into it you can guarantee there'll be other right-wingers who'll feel the same. As they start to come out of the woodwork, and in the context of other changes like abandoning smokefree legislation to fund tax cuts, the discontent will grow into something that will sink Luxon.
It wouldn't be surprising, too, if the relative silence we've had from TPM, the Greens and even Labour means there's some serious caucusing going on right now, perhaps even some unlikely collaboration with the likes of Chris Finlayson or other right-wingers who understand the seriousness of what's proposed.
Whatever happens, the response to the removal of government depatments' use of Te Reo will be mamouth. Luxon won't know what's hit him.
Isn’t he the CEO type? Used to making hard decisions.? Didn’t he used to run an airline?
He got owned. Share price tanking. Nicola’s rising.
Luxon wanted to be PM, probably felt entitled to be PM, so nothing was going to get in the way. Standing up to Peters could've been part of his legacy but he blew it. He'll always be a lightweight.
Right on cue, see today's first meeting of the new Cabinet.
Luxon pretends that he doesn't know about his own Deputy's comments, even as they are sitting side by side in the same room!
Peters is just taking the piss now. He knows how weak Luxon is. It's a daily humiliation.
Always?
I don't think he will be in the job much longer than it takes to do the controversial stuff that no one wants to be tainted with, like legislation to promote tobacco use etc.
Then I reckon he will be rolled and delegated a reputation in Aotearoas history that is different to what he wants.
I agree with almost everything you say, except the bit about putting a question mark over whether he'll always be a lightweight – which he will be, all the way from now until he's rolled. The deal he's made with Peters and Seymour has locked him into lightweightdom for as long as he's PM. I'd also put a question mark over whether he'll get the tobacco legislation through before he's rolled, but this is mere detail: he'll always be a lightweight.
"…What am I missing?…"
MMP. This government is looking it is going to be a strong example of one of the biggest drawbacks of PR systems – they can be gamed by niche parties that demand extreme concessions as the price of government.
I hate the old bastard but Luxon should have known what he was in for with that guy so no pity from me on that one.
May this government be a short and defanged one.
Chris Bishop ran the well-funded social media campaign for National. He was before he entered parliament, the corporate affairs manager for Phillip Morris. He is in lockstep with Willis, and the pair of them seem to be the primary lieutenants of Luxon. Scrapping smoke-free registration is just payback for the support National received from the tobacco industry. Blatant interference in our political system from the very nasty US tobacco industry.
Exactly. And Barclay before. There is a connection there. Perhaps even a relationship, though that’s harder to prove.
And now we’ll kill poor people for our tax cuts.
Pieces of silver Chris ol buddy.
"A fag — especially in England — is also a cigarette, and in British boys’ schools, fags are servants for older boys."
Not sure what the quotes are for. But I think you'll find that fags and fagging no longer exist in British schools.
"The first is its extraordinary decision to consider the roll back of smoke free reforms. There will be some money earned through tobacco excise tax increases but greater levels of cancer and in the medium to long term increased pressure on the health system."
My understanding is that its not a roll back. Things will remain as they are with 8% smoking (as opposed to decreasing it to less than 5%.
Of course it's a roll back. They are repealing the law.
The chorus of rejection from medical professionals should give any government pause to reconsider. If that's not enough, the international reaction should.
(A simple search of "Google News" with terms like "smokefree" + "NZ" or "Luxon" will provide dozens of links to media coverage worldwide).
Locally … “disbelief” … “astounded” … and so on.
Tobacco and vaping law changes show shocking lack of commitment to health of New Zealanders | New Zealand Doctor (nzdoctor.co.nz)
Yeah fair enough
"Things will remain as they are with 8% smoking (as opposed to decreasing it to less than 5%."
Who in their right mind would support reducing smoking percentages down from a perfectly acceptable 8%, to a wildly irresponsible less than 5%, eh, Anker?
Not you, it seems.
Reducing lung cancer rates down toward zero? Not for hard-boiled right-wingers, for sure!
Anker – something for you to put in your pipe:
" National likes it because they need the money to fund their promised handouts to landlords. But as Bernard Hickey points out, that extra revenue has a cost, and it is enormous:
So for a few hundred million a year in extra tobacco tax, National is going to stick us with 4000 – 9000 dead, and $11 billion in other costs. Apparently, this is what they call "fiscal responsibility". Instead, it just looks like cold-blooded murder."
https://norightturn.blogspot.com/2023/11/nationals-murderous-smoking-policy.html
"So for a few hundred million a year in extra tobacco tax, National is going to stick us with 4000 – 9000 dead, and $11 billion in other costs."
But don't forget that at the height of Covid National wanted all restrictions removed, with the stated or unstated implication that the number of deaths didn't matter
Emulating the Tories in the UK
Indeed, Christopher. Anker though, seems reluctant to respond to questions or suggestions…
Maybe he's struggling with the thought of an Anker (a measure equal to ~9 gallons) being expected to put something in a pipe (105 gallons) ….
I'll get my coat.
Hadn't thought to research Anker's handle. Prompted me to look up yours 🙂
"The Budget Economic and Fiscal Update projects that the government will collect about $1.7 billion per year in tobacco excise over the forecast period, with a slow and steady decline. Tobacco excise will be a little more than 1.1% of government tax revenues.
And the 2025 changes are projected to have no effect on excise revenues at all."
https://www.thepress.co.nz/business/350012654/government-cant-have-it-both-ways-when-it-comes-tobacco
We have had the smoke free and environments act for over 20years and the revenue has only increased in that time, to the point where it is a significant source of revenue for any administration….given the fiscal pressure this admin is under it is no surprise they will seek to maintain any and all sources of revenue.
It is worth noting that it has long been accepted that the smoke free 2025 target would not be acheived.
They maintained the nominal value, if not the real value, of the tax by increasing the rate as the number of consumers as per population diminished.
The number of smokers did indeed diminish….though the number on anti anxiety and anti depression meds has increased…and then theres vapers.
I am a nicotine addict of approaching 50 years of use , and have often wondered why they simply do not ban it, but then I consider the consequences and understand it is not so simple. I will very likely die from my tobacco use and probably at least 15 years earlier than I otherwise would have , but that was my decision and I have paid thousands per annum additional tax and will save the country 100s of thousands in superannuation, and avoided the use of prescribed medication all my life but best of all I am much less likely to end up in a rest home.
Yes tobacco is not a healthy product, and yes it is addictive by design and makes the industry (and governments) considerable profit but it is not alone in that sphere.
Ce la vie
Unfortunately the decline in smoker numbers has little to do with vaping – which is a younger cohort brought into nicotine addiction.
Presumably some of them will be placed onto anxiety/depression meds in the future.
The government could have resolved their revenue problem by allowing the sale of low THC strength marijuana (eases nausea helps sleep, but is not that noticeable as a drug unless a lot is smoked) with others able to grow their own.
Whether vaping had any significant impact on smoking numbers is indeed debatable…I suspect the decline was largely related to the increased excise, and possibly the social exclusion.
I further note that smoking used to be advised by the medical profession for the 'calming of nerves'…and some decades ago when i worked in a hospital the medical profession were themselves the heaviest users of the drug….now the drugs du jour appear to be anti anxiety/depressives…..go figure.
The longer you smoke the harder it is to give up. I remember being in hospital for a rugby injury in the 80's. The gentleman next to me had just has his leg amputated to due smoking related damage. He had been warned five years ago that if he didn't give up smoking that this would happen. Five years earlier he had had his first leg amputated. I realised then that if preventing having your second leg amputated was sufficient motivation to stop then it was indeed highly addictive.
Part of the problem with nicotine too is that you go straight into withdrawal as soon as you stop taking it an instant negative feedback loop.
It is complicated. Personally I would make them chemist only and allow the existing smokers to simply fade away over time. Treat it as an addictive substance and a health issue. Like guns accessibility is the main problem.
"Some studies have found that smoking and depression have a complicated relationship because nicotine causes the release of the chemical substance dopamine (the brain's positive trigger). From another angle, since depressive patients' dopamine levels are low, they rely on cigarettes to boost their dopamine levels to feel better. Furthermore, smoking has dopamine-producing mechanism effect in the brain, resulting in a decrease in dopamine supply and thus prompting people to smoke more."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8802724/
"I will very likely die from my tobacco use and probably at least 15 years earlier than I otherwise would have…"
"Ce la vie"
That's life?
A meth addict might say much the same thing.
A meth addict may, but a meth addict is unlikely to have worked for 45 years and successfully raised several contributing offspring to the country (none of whom smoke ).
Your offspring are okay with your, "Ce la vie"?
I'm pretty sure they dont expect me to live forever…and I know they dont want to see me in a rest home.
Perhaps that answers your question.
Nope, but that's okay; it was a very personal question.
I hope you live long and comfortably and if you do end up in a rest home, I believe your offspring actually will want to see you 🙂
Nobody wants to see those they care for in a distressing situation.
Most of the meth addicts I know were working when they became addicted. It is pretty difficult to make the significant amounts of money the gangs make off low income beneficiaries.
Sadly I've seen marriages destroyed, including serious physical violence towards partners where none existed previously, businesses lost, houses lost. One man I know spent $30,000 in six months. Was in his forties and had been relatively successful prior to using.
So many have worked and paid taxes. They just wish now they had never touched it. Education levels likely give a better indication than incomes as obviously quite a few have lost their incomes since they started using.
I don't think anyone asks what someone's income was when they first used it. Only what their income is now. would be interesting to know the loss of income impact.
Education Respondents were asked about their highest level of education or job qualification. Thirteen percent of ATS users had no school qualifications, 16% School Certificate, 14% University Entrance, 11% Bursary, 26% Trade or Technical qualification, 1% Teachers Certificate, and 19% some university papers or a completed degree.
ATS users were less likely to have no school qualifications than the general population (13% vs. 21%). While ATS users were more likely to have completed some university papers than the general population (9% vs. 5%) they were less likely to have completed a degree (10% vs. 15%).
https://www.police.govt.nz/resources/2004/meth-impact/impact-of-meth-in-nz.pdf
"So many have worked and paid taxes. They just wish now they had never touched it. Education levels likely give a better indication than incomes as obviously quite a few have lost their incomes since they started using."
Obviously. The point I was making is the impact of the likes of meth addiction precludes the long term ability to function productively and/or socially (the health impacts are much more immediate)…..the same does not apply to tobacco (nicotine addiction) which while impactful are a much longer term proposition.
Teachers don't seem particularly partial to it.
I noticed that as well. Saw that as a good thing.
Thanks Pat. I really acknowledge that tabacco is a toxic product.
I sincerly hope your self prognosis is wrong and that you are one of the those people who live till they are 95 +
Always appreciate your comments on this site
95 minus 15, most likely, Anker.
By Pat's reckoning.
Both my parents died in their middle eighties so more likely around 70 Robert.
70's a reasonable target, I reckon, Pat.
I'd bestow upon you a healthy, middle eighties term, if I could.
You seem a nice bloke.
Thank you Anker…though 95+ seems a stretch.lol.
Time to take a holiday from this mob already.
Workers should take a couple of extra weeks off after Christmas to engage with family and friends.
The British Medical Journal … criticism doesn't get much blunter than this:
"Thank you for smoking": New Aotearoa/New Zealand government ditches history-making smoke-free plan to fund tax cuts – Blog – Tobacco Control (bmj.com)
I'm struggling to think of a more stupid decision at the start of a new government, certainly in the MMP era. (All parties in power usually make some bad decisions during their time in office, but this was before the government had even been sworn in).
Is Winston Peters irritating his new cabinet colleagues already? He laid into the media again at today's first cabinet meeting. Judith Collins was asked for comment – I've just been made Attorney General – I'm not Winston Peters mother!! she said….
Or is she???
Has anyone checked her claim? She doesn't look old enough to be his mother, but those eyebrows sure look … supported.
Winfield Peters has had many run ins over many years with Mrs Collins. The Cabinet meetings will be like a bag of snakes.
Another frivolous comment (sorry, I'm in that sort of mood tonight): is anyone else irritated at the way Mr Luxon's tie-knot is always so big in proportion to the size of his shirt collar?
It is more the glint off his pale bonce…tinted glasses needed…more self aware baldies use bronzer or some kind of cosmetic…oops, make up is for tattooed gang members now…
Yes. But I took it to mean his shirt collars were too small. Whatever, it makes him look a proper dork which is appropriate.
Do you not consider it inappropriate to comment on someone's appearance? It was a feature of some of the inane criticism of Helen Clark, and I always considered it rather shallow.
Grow a SoH. It was upholding the "frivolous" nature of the conversation. 🙄
Do you come from Kiwiblog?
David, along with a SoH should also get a Sense of Perspective. Discussing a person's choice of Tie Knot pales into insignificance to the horrendous attacks from the Right on and at Helen Clark, and Jacinda Ardern, for that matter. He makes a pathetic attempt at Pearl Clutching.
I know a few people have referenced Hickey’s piece. But his heading on the Kaka just summarises things so devastatingly I thought I’d play it again:
Re smoking.
My parents gave me 100 pounds if I wasn't smoking at 21 year.
Best investment of my life!!!!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/301015744/no-doubt-now-that-antimori-sentiment-powered-the-election-result?dicbo=v2-yYip8b0
All the attacks on Maori, direct and indirect, make it feel we're living in a science fiction movie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Years_and_Years_(TV_series)
I don't think the media was intentionally bribed to favour the then government. But, that doesn't mean that it didn't have a subtle, unintended effect on how the media reported political issues.
When I was at uni, I looked at a paper that explored recipricol behaviour when receiving generosity from others.
The study looked at a few interesting examples. For instance, a university professor sent out Christmas cards to random people he didn't know. He received a lot of cards back from people, even though they didn't know him from a bar of soap.
In another example, the Moonie cult would push flowers into the hands of travellers at airports before asking for donations to their cause. People would often hand over money, then dump the flowers in the bin. The Moonies would then take the flowers from the bin, and rinse and repeat.
The study suggested that receiving a gift leaves people feeling that they are in debt to the giver. That is an uncomfortable feeling they seek to eliminate by giving back to the giver in some way.
Applying this concept to the media situation, I think it was just bad for the media to take the government money regardless of the wording of the contract that allowed media independence.
Whether or not members of the media actually did get subconciously influenced by the fund, the general public is likely aware of the effect I described because they have experienced what I described above, and likely believed the media was also influenced in a similar way.
I can’t find the study I looked at back then. But, there are plenty of studies into reciprocity for those who want to look further into this effect. For example: https://www.decisionskills.com/social-reciprocity.html
In that study, the act of giving a soft drinks increased the tendency of people to purchase raffle tickets.
As I side note, if you do something good for someone, and they seek to do something in return, let them do it. Because you are helping them reslve their own sense of obligation.
The Taxpayers Union received Covid funding.
They immediately began singing Labour's praises /sarc
I didn't say the media definitely was biased as a result. But, I certainly think it was a perceived conflict of interest for them to take the money.
Regardless of what actually happened, people would tend to see the media as a government poodle every time it said anything that favoured the government, precisely because people intuitively understand the reciprocity principle.
And, who knows, maybe the Tax Payers union was less severe in its criticism of the government due to receiving funding.
The reciprocity effect is very powerful, which is why it is often used in marketing.
So, next time a company marketing time shares offers you something like, for instance, a free night in a time share, you will know what it is all about.
"… and the 5th Chinese brother was sentenced to be smothered in whipped cream until death…"
Even if that were true, it's irrelevant to Peters' attacks on RNZ and TVNZ because their funding model has been the same for decades.
And the bulk of any funding was after the 2020 election, so it delivered Labour 25% of the voters. It didn't of course, and to give Peters any credibility on this is like saying "Maybe Trump had a point about Georgia and voting machines" … it elevates a lie to a status it doesn't merit. Sometimes a lie is just a lie.
Why isn't Peters attacking the Herald or Newstalk ZB? Because that would not please his new partners in government. They took the cash themselves.
Tim Dower: The low-down on the Public Interest Journalism Fund (newstalkzb.co.nz)
I don't agree with Peter's attack btw. I think the government should make it clear that Peter’s was not representing the view of the government’s position on that.
He's the Deputy PM!
Loose cannon much.
Hope he doesn't trigger Collins!
Like a munitions dump going off!
Employers received far more than the media and so did the workers. Don't get any sense of them voting Labour back in.
But I thin Labour was quite popular immediately after the support packages, and would have undoubtably been voted back in then. But, quite a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then.
So no doubt you would agree that the backers of National's campaign – the real estate agents, the corporate employers, the tobacco industry, the gun industry, etc will get some reciprocity – or in fact that they already have.
Quite likely. In the samilar that unions benefited quite nicely from the Labour government with the fair pay agreements etc.
Yeah, fair pay – despicable bribe!
Not a bribe. Just reciprocation for the union donations I expect.
I expect you are quite wrong.
Expecting the killing-off of actions to protect New Zealanders from lung cancer from the generous tobacco industry is the kind of reciprocation that needs to be exposed, not the provision of fair payment to workers.
Nat/Act are servants of corrupt wealthy interests and their campaign was a concoction of deceit and fear. There's a difference between responding to one's democratic constituents vs. what National does – bullshitting the public on behalf of a capitalist cabal.
We need to get the $$$ out of politics.
It is evil.
'It' being? The government? Its style? Its policies? Which ones? There are many possible topics in the original piece by MickySavage that may be the subject of your condemnation.
Fundy-led Tory-ness with lashings of Big Business backing, laced with a Goodly dash of racism?
Close?
I see you're having to guess like me; your serving would not go down too well.
Didn't have to, was encouraged to by you.
Chris @ 15.2 has a link that describes the evil very well.
The harvesting of people for tax cuts, specifically.
This poor sainted Brit on the ABC points out, sadly, how stupid it is, in that it doesn’t save any money either. But given it’s a deliberate choice with the facts known, and especially because it was never placed before the country, evil is a better word.
ABC news on the NZ smoking policy change
I listened to quite a good podcast the other day featuring by a historian criticising Game of Thrones as, among other things, the people don’t believe their religion.
It seems to be a failing in how many of us consider an historical world. According to this historian people, mostly, do believe their religion. Rich people left their estate to the Templars to gain favour in the afterlife, Romans observed the correct sacrifices lest they be blamed for any failure, Scott Morrison believes the end of the world has to come with the rapture and a prominent role for the state of Israel and so on.
Which makes you wonder at the number of self professed Christians in the National party who are happy to take an action that will lead directly to 4 to 9 thousand more deaths to fund tax cuts. It is something that should weigh heavily on them because it is an act of evil and the first act of their government.
I wonder if Mr. Luxon knows his history as he contemplates the continued actions of his deputy prime minister.
"Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?"
Or does he lack the minerals to act?
Luxy thinks grinnin' is winnin' but must see he's squandered his expected honeymoon and is losing media support faster than a racehorse with a bellyful of milkshake!
Nah Robert, I doubt if he does realise. He is an empty vessel. To think he can control Trump, I mean Peters, is fanciful.
Empty Vessel, meet Cracked Pot.
Ha.
You couldn't make this smoking for revenue stuff up its insane. Capital suffering the relentless falling rate of profit staggers to new lows where now we see their state literally cashing in thousands of working/underclass lives to generate cash to hand straight to landlords and the already wealthy… Whatever next? Return to indentured labour?
There are several ruthless policies. It’s as if they’re operating using the shock doctrine plan, Do so many bad things, it overwhelms any opposition .
And the media will spend all its time looking at Winston while some serious damage is wreaked on the fabric of civil society.
Worrying times,
is this like 1987 to 1993?
You've got it, Ed.
Indentured labour would be preferable to the kind of employment contracts that NACTNZF is about to rewind us to.
Roll on the first independent political poll of the new government.
As a proxy, generally the share market does a bit of a Mexican wave when a new right wing government gets in, but this time nothing. Not sure if that's significant.
… and the unholy trinity give the tobacco and oil industry lobbies an immediate return on their investment.
Lol Sage. I looked up Unholy Trinity yesterday and it is them to a T. Looks like a bumpy ride ahead. The outright lying and accusations are astounding. All with very little evidence and facts to follow through. Peters is just straight up nasty. Luxons intelligence is at a very low level, and it is obvious that he is scared of Peters. Seymour? Changes his principles on a dime. Anything for power. As for DOCTOR RETI. Does he realise that he signed a Hippocratic oath (Do no Harm) not a HYPOCRITICAL oath. He should be ashamed of himself. Willis is a weasel. Labour bad. Hipkins bad. Robertson bad. Apparently left with a lot of snails and stuff from Labour Govt. Asked by reporter for facts and details. Guess what? Nada. Using the old Key and Daddy English playbook. Never explain. Wash and repeat accusations forever and the great unwashed will forget needing facts and figures that they are ENTITLED to have. A sad and sorry lot. Heaven forbid they should get the 4 year term they are after. All just my opinion of course.
"Heaven forbid they should get the 4 year term they are after."
And there is the best argument for retaining a 3 year term. The salespeople we rotate through Parliament need to be kept on a short leash.
Better yet, lets appoint our representatives by random selection.
There can't be a 4 year term for the next 6 years, so I wouldn't worry too much. Luxon won't be around to enjoy it even if we do vote for it in the proposed referendum, which may not even happen.
It's the same old Winston.Start off bullying and intimidtaing then later on adopt a benign facade .Works every time.
Questions that the media have so far avoided asking the National-led government.
1. What is so wrong with fair pay agreements that you want to scrap it? Are you not in favour of fair pay, or is it fair only if the rich get it?
2. Why does a party that always emphasises free choice and individual freedom want to dictate to schools about their cellphone policies? (One could imagine the terrible fuss everyone would kick up if it had been a Labour government policy).
3. How much did the tobacco industry pay to get this repeal fast tracked and how much more will it cost the health system in the end?
4. How much did drug companies pay to get pseudoephedrine back onto pharmacy shelves?
5. How much did the Ford Dealership network pay to get the clean car rebates scrapped? (We can guess that sales of diesel guzzling Ford Rangers will take off again shortly).
6. If you don't want the Reserve Bank to think about unemployment does that mean you don't think unemployment is a problem? That's not what you were saying before the election.
I doubt anyone will be asking such questions, don't want to spoil the moment do we?