Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election

Written By: - Date published: 6:02 am, June 29th, 2013 - 83 comments
Categories: by-election, by-election 2013 - Tags: ,

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83 comments on “Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election”

  1. karol 2

    Selwyn Manning is saying Labour is well ahead with Mana in second place.

  2. lprent 3

    Fixed the setting that prevented people without logins writing comments. Thanks to whoever txted me..

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8859010/Ikaroa-Rawhiti-goes-to-the-vote

    With votes counted at 18 of 111 polling stations, Labour held the lead over the Mana Party.

    So far Whaitiri had 1092 votes, to Mana’s Te Hamoa Nikora’s 684. The Maori Party’s Na Raihania was in third with 483 votes, while the Green Party’s Marama Davidson had 227.

    If this keeps up I suspect that the Maori party won’t be worth observing next general election… 🙂

    However the early booths are likely to be the smaller ones, and a lot will depend on turnout.

    Incidentially who has a problem with editing? I’m logged out at present and happily editing in chrome on linux.. Should I be logging in a subscriber? Answer in OpenMike…

    • karol 3.1

      Or the Maori Party needs to get on board with the Mana Party.

    • weka 3.2

      Lynn, how do we register to get a login? Or is it only authors now that can do that?

      • Anne 3.2.1

        My question too. I thought I was logged in. Confusing.

        • r0b 3.2.1.1

          On any standard page, at the top right hand corner of the page are two dark green buttons, and two dark blue buttons. The top dark blue button is marked log in…

          When you are logged in, you don’t need to enter your name for every comment, and your comments appear in the light blue boxes like karol’s above.

          • Anne 3.2.1.1.1

            ohhhhhh…. well I never. Hadn’t even noticed them before. Thanks rOb but I don’t think I want to go blue. 🙂

            BTW. I don’t have to enter my name for comments anyway.

          • weka 3.2.1.1.2

            R0b, that’s for people already registered. For those of us not registered, we can’t use the login form until we do (presumably). I can’t find the way to register (haven’t seen it for a while).

            • just saying 3.2.1.1.2.1

              I’ve tried to register with The Standard on and off for years. I’ve never been able to – the functions don’t work for me.

              • lprent

                Yeah. I have several issues with issuing logins.

                Firstly is that it is a major attack point for the bots. I’ve worked around that several times with recaptcha and the like, but I really need to stealth the whole registration and login pages so that it aren’t known access points. Obviously I don’t want to hand this task off to third party system like disqus which would be the simple way (ie the way Whaleoil followed) because then our privacy policy is overtaken with the disqus one.

                Secondly the wordpress method of registration is based around e-mails. This means that keeping the server location quiet is mildly difficult because I have to bounce it through a mail server that doesn’t pass on the IP number. I used to use a windows mail server at home for that. However I had to reset it up on each server move, and I frequently ran into Orcon’s firewalls and anti-spam. Anyway, these days that mail server runs on a windows 2003 virtualbox inside ubuntu server as a legacy system. I’ve been trying out various anonymising mail systems, but they get heavily spam filtered. Services that don’t have the issue like Amazon’s SBS don’t remove the originating IP. I’ll probably wind up setting up a cloud server specifically for the task or looking for a different method of validation apart from having a valid e-mail address. After all what I am interested in is if someone is a person or not.

                Thirdly. It isn’t particularly an issue. Authors have to login to post. But we have a very effective system on commentators not having to do so at all.

    • Colonial Viper 3.3

      Fixed the setting that prevented people without logins writing comments. Thanks to whoever txted me..

      You are welcome 🙂

  3. gobsmacked 4

    Original source:

    http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-65.html

    Good result for Mana. Labour do the minimum, avert disaster.

    • Mary 4.1

      Good news for Mana. 2014 could be their year. Just a pity we have to put up with someone who can’t remember if they’ve ever smoked pot until then.

      • North 4.1.1

        Well given that 91% of them in those hallowed halls undoubtedly have if the truth be known, whom exactly are you talking about ? I thought ShonKey Python’s amnesia was principally about whom he supported in ’81. And Fletcher…….and……and……and.

        Lying egg ! Hang on……maybe it’s that stuff about short term memory ???

        Kia Kaha Mana ! I like Te Hamua. He’s real. Just like Hone. Pono.

        We need…….I’m Pakeha and it certainly holds true for this brother……..more of them. Take the cosmeticised vainglorious shit out of politics.

  4. Lanthanide 5

    Thanks Lynn. I left a comment for QoT on her blog.

    There was live coverage on Maori TV at 7:00pm, and now there is live coverage on their website: http://maoritelevision.com/

    Also official results: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-65.html

  5. karol 6

    Maroi TV, on DTB Live says 80% have been counted with Meka 3,455. Mana just over 2,00 and 3rd place 1,000+

  6. Lanthanide 7

    Looks like Labour has won, unfortunate. Hopefully the result is ‘bad enough’ to roll Shearer, but I suspect he’ll linger on like an unwanted guest for several more months.

    • karol 7.1

      Mana and Maori Party votes combined outnumber the Labour votes.

      • karol 7.1.1

        And Marama is not far behind the Maori Party.

      • Jackal 7.1.2

        I’m not sure what the relevance is to combining the Maori and Mana parties votes? Most of their policies are now diametrically opposed.

        What is of far more interest is that the Greens haven’t cost Mana a much needed win in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by standing Marama Davidson. Also, Na Raihania for the Maori party lost more than 1500 votes on their 2011 result (-41%) and Mana has gained 412 votes, which is 18.8% or twice the gain they made between 2008 and 2011.

        Labour has shed a whopping 5155 votes (-54%), with overall turnout around half it was in 2011. I’m not sure if by-elections normally have less interest, but this doesn’t bode well for the upcoming general election. The left can only hope to win in 2014 if they can ensure there is a good turnout.

        • weka 7.1.2.1

          “What is of far more interest is that the Greens haven’t cost Mana a much needed win in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti by standing Marama Davidson”

          But they probably will if the Maori Party doesn’t exist next time round.

          • karol 7.1.2.1.1

            I guess the Greens need to consider how they will (or will not) contest the Maori electorates next year.

            Standing Marama was mostly focused on Marama promoting the Party’s policies as being relevant for Maori, especially low income Maori. I don’t think they ever expected to win. I do think they want to extend their relevancel with Maori.

            • weka 7.1.2.1.1.1

              AFAIK GP policy is to campaign without regard for other parties, and they want both votes irrespective. I’d be surprised if Davidson doesn’t stand again, unless the GP changes its position on concessions.

            • phillip ure 7.1.2.1.1.2

              turei was interviewed – and said the greens would stand in all of the maori seats in the general election..’

              phillip ure..

        • Akldnut 7.1.2.2

          “Labour has shed a whopping 5155 votes (-54%), with overall turnout around half it was in 2011.”

          Unless the voter turnout is the same as it was in 2011 this is a misleading statement

          • Colonial Viper 7.1.2.2.1

            Given the low turnout, stating an absolute no. of votes dropped is not quite fair. But Labour did drop from about 60% to about 40%. If that proportion drop were replicated in a General Election 😈

          • Jackal 7.1.2.2.2

            Akldnut

            Unless the voter turnout is the same as it was in 2011 this is a misleading statement

            It’s not a misleading statement at all, unless you want to discount all the non-voters that is? Even if we account for the decline in overall votes from 18,319 in 2011 to 10,519 in the by-election (-42%), this is less than the decline in votes for Meka Whaitiri compared to Parekura Horomia (-54%).

            Perhaps a more pertinent comparison is the percentage of the vote, with The Labour Party capturing 49.6% of the electorate votes in 2011 and 41.5% in the by-election (-8.1%). In that case the word whopping is misleading.

            With Mana gaining 18.8% on their 2011 result and the Greens candidate gaining 11.3% of the overall vote, the shift is clearly towards the left wing parties.

            It’s doubtful The Maori party can reconcile their differences with Mana, and therefore their days in parliament are clearly numbered, which has resulted in a bit of whinging from Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples. Without any potential coalition partners, this is bad news for National.

            Colonial Viper

            But Labour did drop from about 60% to about 40%. If that proportion drop were replicated in a General Election

            The decline was to be expected, being that Parekura Horomia was well known in the electorate and Meka Whaitiri has a lot of ground to cover. I thought she spoke very well on Marae Investigates this morning, and will likely help Labour grow or maintain their overal support in the electorate come 2014.

            • Rogue Trooper 7.1.2.2.2.1

              Yes, it appears more maori are wont to vote left-of-centre in these challenging times.
              On Q+A from Colin James; “this is not a good result for the Maori Party, or the National Party (by proxy) John Key should be worried without the guarantee of their support in 2014; their MP appears to have lost connection with the socio-economic status of their constituents”.
              David Shearer; “The Maori Party are finished; MANA is coming up; We are going to contest the Maori seats heavily come the General Election, pick up another two seats”.

              MANA and Greens have both taken votes off Labour.
              “We will continue to contest the Maori seats”- Metiria Turei.

        • karol 7.1.2.3

          I’m not sure what the relevance is to combining the Maori and Mana parties votes? Most of their policies are now diametrically opposed.

          Good point. But there has been talk, on Maori TV and The Daily Blog, about whether the Maori Party should join with Mana. But, as you indicate, there’s the issue of the 2 parties being too far apart.

  7. Lanthanide 8

    Live shot from Meka’s HQ has Shearer in the background wearing a black suit jacket with a very blue shirt underneath. Rookie mistake – Helen would never be caught wearing blue at an election.

    • Alanz 8.1

      How do you know if he isn’t showing his true colour?

    • irascible 8.2

      Sounds like you are a Key troll. Your argument is at the level of a petulant and very spoilt child. Grow up and recognise the win by a highly successful and sound candidate and Labour Party supported by a competent Leader.

      • North 8.2.1

        Being serious……..”a highly successful and sound candidate…….”

        Agreed.

        But the rest of it…….. “…….Labour Party supported by a competent Leader.”

        Now I’m troubled. Sorry Dave, but horses for courses.

        Still, good to see Phil Goff there being his usual good guy Everyman. Liked the happy, buzzing out, animated body language of the young fulla behind Meka. Going by looks alone suspect he’s her son.

        Be proud of your Mum boy. A good Maori woman. Marama too.

      • Lanthanide 8.2.2

        No, it’s an observation that Shearer does things that Helen never would. That Helen actually thought carefully about appearances, and Shearer obviously doesn’t.

      • Rosetinted 8.2.3

        irascible is irritable. Shearer a competent Leader is a hopeful prediction. I hope you’re right.
        Looking at Australia isn’t a pretty sight for viewers over here.

    • Rhinocrates 8.3

      Imagine if he’d been wearing a red shirt – every Trekkie knows what that means.

    • lurgee 8.4

      Is this really the level we’ve sunk to?

      I always think the flaunting of ‘team colours’ is juvenile and silly. Maybe Shearer is just grown up?

  8. Rogue Trooper 9

    Cool 😎

  9. gobsmacked 10

    Nearly half the people who voted Labour in 2011 have either voted for somebody else or not voted at all.

    • weka 10.1

      Low turnout? 2011 had a 18,700 vote count, compared to under 10,000 today. Is that normal for a by-election?

      • Pete 10.1.1

        Turnout in the last by-election, Te Tai Tokerau in 2011 was 13,594. In the previous general election in 2008 the turnout was 20,455

        Edit: another thing to bear in mind was that the Greens did not field a candidate in 2011 in Ikaroa-Rawhiti.

    • AsleepWhileWalking 10.2

      !!

    • Anne 10.3

      Not trying to make excuses for Labour but you have to take into consideration the fact that huge numbers don’t bother to vote in byelections. There’s no way we can analyse, on the basis of the voting percentages, which way they would have voted because most come from the ‘don’t care’ school. They are very hard to motivate at the best of times.

  10. Jane 11

    Final count for tonight is out…
    ————————————-
    Electorate Number: 65   Final: Yes
    Polling Places Counted: 111 of 111 (100.0%)   Votes Counted: 10,519
    Less than 6 votes taken in Polling Places: 6   Special Votes: 1,620
    Leading Candidate: WHAITIRI, Meka (LAB)   Majority: 1,761
     
    Candidates
    APPLEBY, Michael ALCP   161
    DAVIDSON, Marama GP   1,188
    HOLLAND, Adam IND   13
    NIKORA, Te Hāmua MANA   2,607
    RAIHANIA, Na Rongowhakaata MAOR   2,104
    WAIRAU, Maurice IND   27
    WHAITIRI, Meka LAB   4,368
     
    Candidate Informals   51
    TOTAL   10,519

    • Socialist Paddy 11.1

      The headlines are that Mana has doubled its share of the vote, the Maori Party has stayed still and Labour has lost some share. A win is a win but it is not a resounding result.

      • Te Reo Putake 11.1.1

        So, a typical by-election result then?

        Well done, Meka Whaitiri, well done Jenny! I look forward to Meka building on this foundation for many elections to come. Good on Mana’s Te Hamoa Nikora too. A pretty smart campaign and a hard working candidate.

    • Colonial Viper 11.2

      In 2011 LAB majority was 6541, with 2/3 more votes (17,400) cast.

      Labour % of vote dropped from 61% to 42%.

  11. Sir Cullen's Sidekick 12

    Excellent news for Labour and Shearer’s leadership. Well done.

  12. calltoaccount 13

    Just ignore. (Sir) Cullen’s Sidekick is a nasty little troll, if it’s comments on Kiwiblog/Espiner’s blogs are anything to go by.

  13. xtasy 14

    Meka won with a larger vote than I thought she would get. I am impressed with Te Hamoa’s performance, although it was lower than some had hoped for (amongst Mana supporters). Na Raihania did better than I thought, and I am disappointed that Marama did not get more votes, but that was mostly not expected, given she is still a bit new in the coal face political arena.

    It has shown that Labour can muster some numbers with their established party networks. Many will have voted for Meka, as they preferred some form of “stability”. But really, the votes for the Mana and Maori Party candidates combined would have a majority, had they one candidate for a united party with Maori focus.

    As it was a small turnout between 35 and 36 percent, one cannot read too much into this result. It is a large geographical electorate that is very diverse, and as it is a Maori one, many voters are socially and economically disadvantaged, and they vote accordingly. Sadly many have not bothered, as they feel totally marginalised and thus not taken serious and rather disconnected.

    And there lies the challenge to all parties to the left of centre: To reach the huge numbers of non voters, who have resigned from political participation!

    Labour did not reach them, as only about 15 percent of all eligible voters actually voted for their candidate, even less for the other contenders.

    Shocking figure that is – for non voters!

  14. bad12 15

    Dr Pita Sharples in today’s Herald ‘will be re-examining His future”, Here let me help you with that examination of the entrails after yesterday’s by-election Pete,

    The prognosis, you aint got one Doctor, a future in the Parliament that is, should the rising level of support for the Mana party translate across electoral boundaries in November 2014 into the Tamaki-Makarau electorate, and only the extremely brain damaged or totally foolish would believe otherwise, then i for one am not truly sorry Doctor Sharples, to put it bluntly your Dog Tucker,

    Whichever way the numbers are crunched from last night’s by-election Dr Sharples in your current political apparatus you cannot win Tamaki-Makarau in 2014 based upon your razor thin 1000+ win there in 2011,

    Your one chance Dr Sharples is to consider that Tariana after 2 terms of extracting utu from Labour Has had her fun and it is now time to rebuild what was a promising Pan-Maori political movement based around Mana Party leader Hone Harawira,

    Obviously such a negotiating will require you to walk away from your agreement with this National Government, (leaving Tariana there if she so wishes to remain the lap-dog of National),

    Therein lies the only future for the Maori Party and it’s MP’s that wish to continue on past November 2014 in the political arena,

    I trust Dr Sharples that you and Te Ururoa Flavell can read the numbers just as i have and that you still have the skills necessary to negotiate a reconciliation with the Mana Party, for you and Flavell your political futures now depend upon this happening,

    PS, congratulations to Meka Whaitiri, (the numbers say you will hold the seat in 2014), and a fight well fought by the Mana and Green candidates,

    My pick this far out for Tamaki-Makarau 2014, back to Labour…

  15. tracey 16

    When Mandela dies, will Key attend the funeral. If yes, does that he mean he does or does not recall that he supported the NZRFU?

    • Brett Dale 16.1

      Like all world leaders he will go to the funeral and pay his respects.

      • fender 16.1.1

        Like any hypocritical leader he will conveniently forget he was a pro ’81 springbok tour supporter, go to the funeral and complete his photo-op wall display.

        fixed it for you Brett.

        • Brett Dale 16.1.1.1

          Fender:

          Typical kiwi response, Mandela was more than 1981. You wait till he dies, the first shot our fuckin media will show, will be Lomu shaking hands with him.

          We need to look at his whole life. not where he was , and what kiwis watched or didnt watch a fuckin rugby union game.

          • fender 16.1.1.1.1

            It’s strange that you think it would be ok for Key to attend Mandelas’ funeral despite Key being a pro ’81 tour supporter. People protested against the tour to send a message to the racist S.A. apartheid regime that their treatment of the black people was unacceptable.

            • weka 16.1.1.1.1.1

              It’s not what Key was thinking/doing in ’81 that’s the issue, it’s that he hasn’t changed since then. There are people who were pro-tour then who have since conceded they were wrong. Key could have been one of them but he isn’t.

            • Rosetinted 16.1.1.1.1.2

              Jokeyhen didn’t go to Chavez funeral in Venezuela. http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-politics-daily-it-mindboggling-blunder-key-miss-chavez-funeral-ck-136974

              There must be better photo ops there in SA and he might pick up a few nice diamonds and handy business connections while there. How many tourists from SA do we get here? Now that’s some good promotion he can do. Tourism was slightly down there in the year to April 2013.

          • Rosetinted 16.1.1.1.2

            And it wasn’t a walk in the park making that ’81 sacrifice by some rugby lovers of not having the pleasure of seeing the game on the one hand and on the other being menaced or even beaten by aggressive police. It was a great gesture of respect and protest against South Africa’s vicious regime (remember Biko et al).

            It was also to respect our own Maori who were being sidelined as a result of SA racism. I was just reading about Ben Couch, an early Welfare Minister amongst other things, who had been an All Black and he was prepared not to have Maori in the team, but most thoughtful, principled NZs didn’t agree with this.

            But here were many more interested in their own pleasure and sporting interests than taking the opportunity to do something principled and tweak the tail of this brutal regime.
            Jokeyhen would no doubt, looking at his present line in principle, have found his home amongst those who didn’t protest about lack of ideals of human behaviour and citizens rights by the SA regime. I didn’t want the tour to go ahead but didn’t protest myself, and simply wrote a letter to the paper about it which brought some flak to me. But not a bruise or blood from a baton hit.

          • Anne 16.1.1.1.3

            We need to look at his whole life. not where he was , and what kiwis watched or didnt watch a fuckin rugby union game.

            If you think that is what 1981 was all about then you’re a lost cause Brett Dale. I had a few relatives who were pro-tour and they delighted in telling racist jokes against black Sth. Africans. To this day I view their attitude (as it was then) with total contempt. I guarantee John Key sniggered at the self same jokes.

            Key is on record as saying he was a great admirer of Rob Muldoon who was the PM who initiated the tour fracas purely for party political gain. Now we have to watch Key tripping off to the funeral for party political gain – just like his idol.

            I wonder who he will be having secret talks with this time?

  16. So an average election result for the greens.
    Average for the Maori party.
    A good one for Mana.
    A disaster for Labour.

    They called it formidable for their election team?

    Are they that deluded?

    If the greens and mana play their cards right, they should join together and become the biggest opposition party there is.

    National must be smiling over this result.

    • bad12 17.1

      The only ‘smile’ on the face of the Slippery National Government will be the grimace of a second term Government looking down the barrel of electoral defeat in 2014,

      2014 will either see a Parliament without the Maori Party supporting a National Government or no Maori Party representation among the Parliaments MP’s,

      We should all know within a few weeks whether Pita Sharples will contest His electorate seat again given that He cannot possibly win without the reunification of the Maori and Mana Party’s,

      Where will the rats on the National Government’s sinking ship run to for a coalition partner after November 2014, perhaps NZFirst will be obliging after having been labelled ‘untrustworthy and worse by Slippery the Prime Minister on various occasions,

      Winston Peters must this far out from the 2014 election be laughing fit to burst a gut valve at the thought that come November 2014 the Slippery little Shyster will come knocking at His door begging for Peter’s support…

  17. lurgee 18

    I don’t see why it is a ‘disaster’ for Labour. By-election results are almost always wobbly, as they are on reduced turnouts and without the over-arching narrative of a general election campaign. Also given this by-election was about a relative unknown contesting the seat vacated by a very well known politician who had held it for years.

    I suppose people will read into it whatever they want to read into it; the factionalists and schismatics will mysteriously claim a win is a defeat and call for Shearer’s head.

    I suppose the simplist question they have to answer is, would they rather see David Cunliffe back in government, or would they prefer him on the opposition benches for another three years?

    Because I think that really is the reality. There’s a slim possibility of the former if the squabblnig stops and Labour get their act together; and a very strong likelihood of the latter, if things continue as they are.

    As I said, I preferred Cunliffe to Shearer, but he lost. Move on. I’m sure he’d rather be a minister in government than leader of the opposition.

    • gobsmacked 18.1

      You constantly push this “Shearer critics = bitter Cunliffe losers” line. It’s nonsense.

      Let’s make things easier for you. David Cunliffe falls under a bus. RIP. Gone. *sob*

      Now, how on earth does that make Shearer …

      – articulate? consistent? media-savvy? dynamic? in control of his ill-disciplined rabble? anything like a capable leader?

      In short, how does the non-existence of Cunliffe give us anything except … the same old David Shearer? Is there a Secret Shearer, full of talent and inspiration, who will suddenly appear if people stop noticing the real one?

      Could you explain that piece of magic for us?

  18. lurgee 19

    I hardly do anything ‘constantly’ – I’m a very occasional presence. For the same reason I don’t bash my head against brick walls.

    I have been here enough to see that most of the anti-Shearer wailing comes from people who support / supported David Cunliffe. Can’t be a coincidence. Look how often references are made to the “ABC-er” clique.

    If David Cunliffe did fall under a bus, that would only serve to show how lacking in talent the Labour party is. If Cunliffe is you strongest alternate leader, things are pretty bad. I dount Cunliffe – or anyone else- would be doing any better than Shearer. There’s a settled, popular government, lead by someone who is very skilled at smiling nicely and avoiding blame. There’s a distinct lack of ideas or charisma in Labour, but substituting Shearer for Cunliffe won’t change that. 70% of the time, I think we’re doomed. The other 30% of the time I’m hopeful. Then I come here and despair engulfs me …

    Was the pun on a Joseph Conrad story deliberate? If so, I salute you.

  19. If there was a big call for change in this country, they would’ve gotten more than 36% turn out?? is that correct. 36% of people turned out for this election.

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