It will be Chippy for PM

101 comments on “It will be Chippy for PM ”

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1. Ovid 1

   21 January 2023 at 10:42 am

   Good luck to him. He’s always struck me as good-humoured, personable, smart and across his portfolios. So he will be a good PM and a good campaigner.
2. Reality 2

   21 January 2023 at 10:47 am

   Chris Hipkins was my pick for PM. He has personality and a sense of humour, is smart and handles the media well. He can also give a sharp response when needed (and this year that will be needed to counter all that will be thrown at him by the toxic types).

   He has a young family so being a Wellington region MP will mean a bit less constant travel for him.

   Kiri Allan for Deputy?
3. Shanreagh 3

   21 January 2023 at 10:51 am

   One of the Ministers I worked for had a saying that if a person had a twinkle in their eye they were worthy of further communication.

   Rough rule of thumb but it excludes Michael Woodhouse and John Key.

   It includes Judith Collins.

   Chippy has it in bucket-loads!
4. aj 4

   21 January 2023 at 11:10 am

   I'll never forget this covid presser in a park about a year ago when he walked down a track through bush into a clearing where the reporters were. I think he was late because his mother wanted to make sure he was dressed properly. Not shown in this video was a moment when the camera panned to two of his children who came to him after the press conference finished. Brought a tear to my eye at the time as I thought about how exhausted the covid team must have been. By 'covid team', I meant the govt decision makers, every soul in health, MIQ, police, lab work, police, in short a big number of people.

   This clip and the little story that bookends it encapsulates why he is such a good pick for PM
   • Peter 4.1

     21 January 2023 at 12:17 pm

     From the other end of your human perspective …

     Work out how minutes before you see vicious comments about him.

     That unbelievable idiot David Farrar already has Chris is a "likeable nice guy, but he is also willing to play the man, not the ball." Well, not unbelievable.

     And one of his cretinous posters has it, "What jobs has he had in the real world? Ever owned a business?" Naturally all the problems with and issues in education according to that site are his fault.
5. observer 5

   21 January 2023 at 11:14 am

   With Grant Robertson adamant that he doesn't want it, Hipkins is the best choice for leader. Michael Wood is impressive and his time will come, but not now.

   It will be fun to watch the frothers try and play the man (sic) instead of the ball. Now that they no longer have an evil commie witch dictator to fantasise about, they might have to talk about … real policy. Oo er!

   Obviously Hipkins will eat Luxon's lunch, but so would anyone who can manage a coherent sentence and avoid the weekly walkback.
6. Mac1 6

   21 January 2023 at 11:27 am

   I lost a reply into the ether but Shanreagh, Reality, observer and Ovid have said what I wanted.

   I also would add that a big hat tip of honour should go to the caucus as a whole but the contenders especially for their acumen, their selflessness and their recognition of their time and place in the political firmament.

   The Greens via Shaw also recognised his qualities immediately.

   Hipkins has also an essential cheekiness, Seymour's best attribute, and his sense of humour shows his humility, his mental quickness and a willingness to engage as a communicator and negotiator.

   Compared with ……….? Bring on the election!
7. SPC 7

   21 January 2023 at 11:32 am

   He would have preferred going from summer shorts to trousers c2025 (as per English after Key), whether he has more than this year to be PM will depend on making a difference in terms of perception in realising delivery (administrative competence) and then of coordinating a centre-left programme with Greens and MP that 50% can accept (pre-election).

   My first advice, adopt a tax revenue neutral approach – the Greens wealth tax (for post 2023 application) used to reduce income tax. 5% pay more 95% pay less – and otherwise tax revenues sustained for investment in infrastructure and social delivery (health/housing/welfare). All while debt is managed downward as a share of GDP.
8. Patricia Bremner 8

   21 January 2023 at 11:34 am

   It behoves us all to re-read his maiden speech. I found it reassuring.
9. Kat 9

   21 January 2023 at 11:35 am

   Chippy is bound to be an excellent PM, he has what it takes, has the experience, the backing of the party, is on top with the detail and delivers in clear concise language.

   Look out Luxon, the Chris's are about to cross and we all know which one will be crossed out.

   Jacinda is a great PM, however she is also something much more. If we had our own monarchy she would be queen, if we were a republic she would be president. The world remains that much more a beautiful place while she is in it.
10. Reality 10

    21 January 2023 at 11:51 am

    Two Chris's – one an interesting and astute one and the other a very boring one (who needs his hand held by Nicola/advisors most of the time).
11. UncookedSelachimorpha 11

    21 January 2023 at 12:08 pm

    I think he could do well – gift of the gab, decent person and a sense of humour.

    While Labour is completely neoliberal, it is very important to avoid a NAct government which would be massively worse – and Hipkins gives a good chance of that I hope.

    Good luck Chris Hipkins!!!
    • tinderdry6 11.1

      21 January 2023 at 12:45 pm

      The core tenets of neo-liberalism are free market capitalism, deregulation and cuts to government spending. To describe today's NZ Labour Party as "completely neoliberal" is more than a stretch.
      • UncookedSelachimorpha 11.1.1

        21 January 2023 at 1:05 pm

        free market capitalism, deregulation and cuts to government spending

        The outcome of all of these is inequality, which NZ has in spades. Labour leaves the majority of wealth untaxed (or very lightly taxed) and is locked to user pays (=regressive tax) at every opportunity. Access to health care and education depends very much on your wealth in NZ (I know lots of examples, personally).

        I am not saying Labour doesn't make very small moves in the right direction – but given the extent of the problem (50% of NZ owns less than 5% of the wealth) – Labour's moves will not shift the dial in any meaningful way (e.g. doubling that 5% to 10%).
        • tinderdry6 11.1.1.1

          21 January 2023 at 3:48 pm

          "The outcome of all of these is inequality, "

          If analysed by its extremes, socialism also produces inequality, perhaps more so. But that's not the point. The current Labour Party in government is not completely neo-liberal, far from it.
          • UncookedSelachimorpha 11.1.1.1.1

            21 January 2023 at 5:19 pm

            I wouldn't advocate extremes.

            But 50% of the country having less than 5% of the wealth – is extreme. Moving that to say 10% of the wealth, would be considered "extreme" by some I suppose.
          • gsays 11.1.1.1.2

            21 January 2023 at 6:58 pm

            Can you point to a reform from Labour that undoes or is a step away from neo-liberalism?

            Little's rebranding of the Health System is a wonderful opportunity to do so but they got an accounting firm (Ernst Young) to lead it. Says it all.
            • lprent 11.1.1.1.2.1

              21 January 2023 at 7:29 pm

              Can you point to a reform from Labour that undoes or is a step away from neo-liberalism?

              Just offhand…

              New Zealand has just passed a law that will revolutionise workers’ rights. It probably won’t last

              Perhaps you’d like to point out how that doesn’t unwind significiant parts of the Employment Contracts Act? Or are you just being a useless critic longing for a first-past-the-post dictatorship that Muldoon and Douglas used so badly.

              Legislation that is worth having takes time to build. It is easy to be critical of the poorly written legislation of FPP. These days under MMP and coalition politics it requires agreement with the likes of NZF. It requires consideration amongst interested bodies – which you can see in Henry Cookes article.

              What it does need is a dictatorial government or a critic who appears to hanker for a dictatorial government capable of making arbitrary changes.
            • tinderdry6 11.1.1.1.2.2

              21 January 2023 at 9:33 pm

              1. Labour have implemented a substantial increase in government expenditure.

              1. Labour have paved the way for significant increases in state house building, including increasing Kainga Ora's borrowing ability from crown financing as recently as November 2022.
              2. Labour have increased the highest marginal tax rate, and implemented multiple new taxes or levies, including an effective 55% increase in individual tax bills.

              I could quote a number of other examples. The left criticise Labour for being neo-liberal, while the right criticise them for being only marginally to the right of Stalin. Perhaps it's a kiwi disease.

              [Pray tell us, what specifically did Labour implement other than the introduction of the top tax bracket of 39% for incomes over $180,000 per 1 April 2021 that contributed to the 55% increase since 2017? I cannot tell from the link that you provided, so I assume you are telling porkies – Incognito]
              • Incognito …

                22 January 2023 at 2:17 pm

                Mod note
                • tinderdry6 …

                  22 January 2023 at 7:53 pm

                  Labour have implemented a policy of not inflation indexing tax brackets. As the article states:

                  "inflation pushing people into higher tax brackets has generated about three-and-a-half times as much revenue as the new 39% income tax rate.”

                  Did you not read the article?

                  [Are you kidding me? You are saying that Labour implemented a policy of/by not implementing a policy?? Has there been such a policy of indexing income tax brackets in NZ in recent times? AFAIK, tax bracket creep is not caused by a specific policy, so I ask you again: what specifically did Labour implement other than the introduction of the top tax bracket of 39% for incomes over $180,000 per 1 April 2021 that contributed to the 55% increase since 2017? Don’t waste my time again – Incognito]
                  • Incognito …

                    22 January 2023 at 8:18 pm

                    Mod note
                    • tinderdry6 …

                      22 January 2023 at 9:07 pm

                      Just in case you're left in any doubt:

                      "Asked whether that meant Labour might finally consider any changes to tax thresholds, he (Grant Robertson) replied: “Look, we’ll see what happens, but I doubt it. That’s not our focus. We’ve been very clear that, at the moment, there is a significant need in our community to be able to invest in health, to be able deal with some of the really specific issues.”

                      "That really is drawing a line in the sand. Remember, Labour leader Andrew Little is a fan of mandated shifts to tax thresholds every few years to account for inflationary bracket creep. Labour’s fiscal plan indicated reversing the shifts made by Steven Joyce to the bottom two income tax thresholds would bring in nearly $500m in 2017/18 and then nearly $2bn a year out to 2021/22 versus Budget 2017 projections."

                      What that tells us is:

                      1. The leader of the Labour Party in July 2017 supported mandated shifts in the thresholds to account for inflation.
                      2. Grant Robertson clearly rejected that policy option in favour of having more money to spend. That is a conscious decision.
                    • Incognito []

                      22 January 2023 at 9:29 pm

                      What doubt? I have no doubts about your misleading arguments so far. You resort to mental gymnastics to score a point, which is rather pointless.
                    • tinderdry6 …

                      22 January 2023 at 11:05 pm

                      I have re-read over your comments to me and I get the sense that they are about more than just disagreement. This thread started with me defending Labour against accusations that they are completely neoliberal, and somehow my responses have triggered you to engage in what amount to aggressive personal attacks on me. I experienced the same from you on the Western Springs discussion, and it just gets weird. If that's your idea of moderation, that's your prerogative. It is so inconsistent with others here.
                  • tinderdry6 …

                    22 January 2023 at 8:49 pm

                    "You are saying that Labour implemented a policy of/by not implementing a policy??"

                    Yes.

                    The word implement means to put (a decision, plan, agreement, etc.) into effect.

                    Not indexing tax brackets is a conscious policy decision. In fact the options for such a policy decision are specifically discussed in a report from the Tax Working Group in 2018.

                    Also, I quote from this article "Tax commentator Terry Baucher said 12 years was too long to leave the tax brackets as they were." The language is very clear that 'leaving' the tax brackets is a conscious decision.

                    “Has there been such a policy of indexing income tax brackets in NZ in recent times?”

                    Yes.

                    1. National adjusted the tax thresholds through a series of changes between 2008/09 through 2010/11.
                    2. It was National policy as recently as 2019.
                    3. It was supported by ACT in 2017, and Steven Joyce said at the time that National was "open to the idea of indexing income tax thresholds to Consumer Price Index inflation to soften the 'bracket creep' that inexorably increases effective tax rates as wages rise."

                    “AFAIK, tax bracket creep is not caused by a specific policy,”

                    Well, you're wrong.

                    [You are really trying my patience and wasting my time, so this is your last chance to keep your commenting privileges on this site.

                    Not doing something is indeed a choice but it is not the same as actively implementing a policy, as you implied. For every existing and implemented policy, there is an infinite number of non-implemented ones, which just shows the absurdity of your argument and that you were indeed telling porkies.

                    A couple of ad hoc tax adjustments, whilst increasing GST, is not indexing tax brackets. However, it shows that tax bracket creep is nothing new and not caused by a policy implemented by this Labour Government, as you implied. You are digging a deeper hole for yourself.

                    Having indexing tax brackets as policy proposals is not the same as implementing them as actual policy. This is a red herring.

                    You need to back up your claim that I’m wrong and tell us which specific policy is causing tax bracket creep – Incognito]
                    • Incognito …

                      22 January 2023 at 9:26 pm

                      Mod note
                    • tinderdry6 …

                      22 January 2023 at 10:49 pm

                      "Not doing something is indeed a choice but it is not the same as actively implementing a policy, as you implied."

                      Not doing something is absolutely implementing a policy when the Tax Working Group lays it out as a policy option, and when the now Finance Minister is on record as specifically ruling it out. It is rejecting the arguments for or premise of that policy. For example, not increasing benefits during some years of previous National governments was a policy decision.

                      "For every existing and implemented policy, there is an infinite number of non-implemented ones,"

                      Yep, and not implementing those are policy decisions. They are decisions on policy; to implement or not. Those decisions may be made for a host of reasons, but they are decisions nonetheless.

                      "Having indexing tax brackets as policy proposals is not the same as implementing them as actual policy. This is a red herring."

                      You didn't ask about implementing them. You asked about whether there had been a policy of indexing income txax brackets. Here's you exact quote “Has there been such a policy of indexing income tax brackets in NZ in recent times?”

                      "A couple of ad hoc tax adjustments, whilst increasing GST, is not indexing tax brackets."

                      Well I could get dragged down that rabbit hole, but it's irrelevant. You didn't ask for examples of implementation, you asked for examples of policy. I gave them to you. Including some that were implemented.

                      However, it shows that tax bracket creep is nothing new and not caused by a policy implemented by this Labour Government, as you implied. You are digging a deeper hole for yourself.

                      Where did I say it was new? Bracket creep is as old as tax and inflation. And it is caused by a deliberate policy decision to not inflation index tax brackets. Decisions made by both national and Labour governments over the years. That is demonstrated very clearly by Grant Robertsons own words:

                      “Look, we’ll see what happens, but I doubt it. That’s not our focus. We’ve been very clear that, at the moment, there is a significant need in our community to be able to invest in health, to be able deal with some of the really specific issues.”

                      Robertson made a conscious policy decision to not index tax brackets so that the government had sufficient money for other priorities. I invite you to look back at the original comment, and my responses to the claim that Labour were 'completely neoliberal' and you'll understand.

                      “You need to back up your claim that I’m wrong and tell us which specific policy is causing tax bracket creep”
                      Not indexing tax brackets for inflation. You are wrong if you think otherwise, and I’ve well and truly demonstrated that.
        • Bearded Git 11.1.1.2

          21 January 2023 at 10:41 pm

          Agreed uncooked.

          Hopkins is eloquent and smart but he is from the right side of the party. This will push the left to vote Green or MP.

          The ideal election result would be a Lab/Gr coalition where the Greens demand a Wealth Tax as a bottom line.
12. Mike the Lefty 12

    21 January 2023 at 12:10 pm

    The right-wing media apologists like Bryce Edwards are crowing that Labour has effectively given up the next election with the (presumed) election of Hipkins as PM.

    I think the political right were hoping that Labour would elect Kiri Allan or Nanaia Mahuta so they could be both racist and misogynist, with Jacinda they could only do the latter.
    • tinderdry6 12.1

      21 January 2023 at 12:39 pm

      The Herald are reporting Carmel Sepuloni will be deputy PM, so if you're right they still have plenty to work with.
      • Mike the Lefty 12.1.1

        21 January 2023 at 12:45 pm

        It won't be as satisfying for them though because deputy doesn't have quite the status of the top job.

        Still I suppose the right think that any excuse to be nasty and vindictive is a good excuse.
13. bwaghorn 13

    21 January 2023 at 12:32 pm

    Let's hope his party get behind him, he doesn't appear to be ordained by the previous leader like English and Goff where,which seemed to cause endless ructions.
14. Corey Humm 14

    21 January 2023 at 12:40 pm

    Bugger.

    Hes a good minister in the background but an absolutely horrible communicator (remember that awfully awkward 10 minutes he waited to get answers to his own COVID rules at a press conference), He comes off as smug, robotic and smarmy and he was a part of the highly dysfunctional, abc faction that leaked like a 90s build home and he was an awful party whip.

    I was truly hoping it'd be someone exciting like Kiri Allen but maybe kiri would be best saved for 2029.

    I wish him the best because national/act is terrifying economically but he's just another boring centerist middle management arse hole like Goff and he'll probably get the same result as a Goff.

    Labours only hope now is doing a quiet electorate deal with TOP (what's more offensive, strategic voting or being in opposition and losing to a bunch of Ayn Rand stans) not running in all or some of the Maori electorates thus allowing the Maori party to cause an overhang, and hoping like hell the greens make Chloe a co-leader (and perhaps another mou with the greens).

    Hipkins could also hit the ground running with a cgt and other policies Ardern had ruled out and marijuana decriminalization (49.7% of NZ did vote for legalization), they could offer student loan forgiveness, first $20 k tax free and universal dental all of which would be insanely popular but given Hipkins political history as someone on the bog standard center of the party I imagine he'll aim to be another boring middle of the road poli.

    Bugger.

    Just bugger.
    • Mike the Lefty 14.1

      21 January 2023 at 12:49 pm

      Hipkins is good except when he comes under pressure. This he needs to learn to deal with and he will surely get plenty. Jacinda will be a very good tutor I am sure.
    • tinderdry6 14.2

      21 January 2023 at 1:01 pm

      The only poll I'm aware of comparing some of the potential Labour PM's (Taxpayers Union/Curia) shows he is the best option electorally for Labour.

      That same poll shows some key policies of the government are deeply unpopular, most notably 3Waters. It will be interesting to see whether Hipkins walks some of those policies back.
      • mpledger 14.2.1

        22 January 2023 at 4:20 pm

        3 waters is a dead issue in the cities. Small pockets in the rural areas might be making a lot of heat and noise but they have turned people off.
        • tinderdry6 14.2.1.1

          22 January 2023 at 7:56 pm

          3Waters is a huge issue across the country.

          Refer page 24 of this link.
          • Muttonbird 14.2.1.1.1

            22 January 2023 at 8:00 pm

            I wonder who is paying for that research.
            • tinderdry6 14.2.1.1.1.1

              22 January 2023 at 9:18 pm

              Well the TaxPayers Union, obviously. I'm more interested in who conducted the research.
    • Sabine 14.3

      21 January 2023 at 1:11 pm

      Hipkins could also hit the ground running with a cgt and other policies Ardern had ruled out and marijuana decriminalization (49.7% of NZ did vote for legalization), they could offer student loan forgiveness, first $20 k tax free and universal dental all of which would be insanely popular but given Hipkins political history as someone on the bog standard center of the party I imagine he'll aim to be another boring middle of the road poli.

      All of this under Ardern would have given them great praise and would have put them on a good footing for the upcoming elections. Couple that with a 51% majority, the Greens supporting most if not all of your points, and it should have been a cakewalk.

      Yet, here we are.
    • SPC 14.4

      21 January 2023 at 1:24 pm

      There is already a 10 year bright line test on residential property. The Greens wealth tax is better.

      Not requiring health and education sector workers to pay back TD while working here, is smarter than a write off for those who now live overseas.

      First $10,000 tax free (or 10 cents to $20,000) allows more money for other adjustments (such as families).

      Free dental would require rationing access to (limited number) dentists.
      • Sabine 14.4.1

        21 January 2023 at 1:44 pm

        free education for medical personal in exchange for working in NZ health for a few years.

        first 25 grand tax free – would cover median rentals, and fwiw, should find grace with the right.

        free dental – you could start with free 6 monthly checkups – to prevent decay etc and roll that out further, also see above – free education for medical personal in exchange for working in NZ health

        All of these things have been asked for many many times on this blog, in person at meetings with MP's and such, yet there is no hope of any of it coming into play.

        2.5 years with a full majority, support from the Greens, probably support from Te Pati Maori in regards to a few of these items and yet my bet is that the Labour Party will not do a thing.

        And this is why the Labour today is exactly where they are.
        • Chess Player 14.4.1.1

          21 January 2023 at 5:33 pm

          The reason none of this 'free' stuff comes into play is that it is not 'free'.

          Someone has to pay.

          And while Labour tries to keep power, it doesn't have much option but to try be the middle ground party, as it lost its original ethos back in the 80s and now the Greens carry that mantle.

          Repeatedly, big talk has turned into cowardice, as a 'don't scare the horses' approach has been considered more important than the promises made in order to get elected.

          At the end of the day, I don't think it matters who the leader is, it's still just the Labour party, and the temporary boost from Ardern as leader will vanish when the electorate realises that.
      • Nic the NZer 14.4.2

        21 January 2023 at 1:48 pm

        Its one of Ardern's more clever plays actually. By accepting the bright-line test being in effect a CGT, adopting the National government terminology and having said she would not introduce a CGT, she got a lot of resistance out the way without fuss.

        If Hipkins decides to re-start a policy battle already won, I would have to question his strategic thinking.

        I couldn't find CGT tax policy statements on the Green party web-site, so I think they have drawn the same conclusion and moved on to their wealth tax policy.
      • Christopher Randal 14.4.3

        22 January 2023 at 1:47 pm

        We are already rationing access to primary health care due to a limited number of GPs
    • weka 14.5

      21 January 2023 at 1:48 pm

      Let's play this out. Labour let TOP win Ilam. Labour don't get enough votes or coalition partners to form govt. National can form govt with ACT but throw a sop to TOP like they did with TPM. TOP get some concessions on a UBI trial, and thus we have UBI introduced into NZ within a neoliberal RW frame.

      Nact use this to further demolish welfare (and it's a condition of ACT's support), which TOP are ok with because they hate welfare, their UBI policy was designed by a RW libertarian and still reflects this despite updates in recent years, and TOP decide that any influence is better than none. Because they don't have a good grasp of welfare and how it works, they support NACT pulling apart some of the core bits.

      How does this help the left?
      • weka 14.5.1

        21 January 2023 at 1:49 pm

        this is off topic, am happy to shift to OM Lynn.
        • lprent 14.5.1.1

          21 January 2023 at 3:00 pm

          Not a problem. The PM tends to lead agenda, and as leader of the house is heavily involved in coalition politics.
      • Sabine 14.5.2

        21 January 2023 at 2:01 pm

        It does not. And it is about time that people actually start thinking in these terms.
      • observer 14.5.3

        21 January 2023 at 2:34 pm

        A deal in Ilam wouldn't work. Epsom is unusual, in that the party vote is rock solid for one party and the voters do what they are told for that party. The Nats (i.e. party voters) know that their vote for Hide/Banks/Seymour will only ever be used to benefit National.

        There are few if any comparable electorates. And TOP is not perceived as a guaranteed supporter for Labour, which is the only way these deals can work.
        • alwyn 14.5.3.1

          21 January 2023 at 2:48 pm

          Your reasoning is spot on. To say that Labour could let TOP win Ilam is simply dreaming. It went Labour only once since its creation back in 1996. I personally don't believe that Labour, no matter how hard they try, can retain Ilam, much less gift it to a very minor party like TOP.
        • weka 14.5.3.2

          21 January 2023 at 2:48 pm

          yeah, I think TOP's unspoken position is they will support Labour if they can, and if they can't they'll take a deal from Nat. Who is going to trust that after Peters? And what advantage is there to Labour anyway?
15. newsense 15

    21 January 2023 at 12:57 pm

    Capable boy. Let’s see. Wouldn’t be expecting a CGT 🤣
16. Maurice 16

    21 January 2023 at 1:24 pm

    One chippy replaced with another …

    How long before the right wing attack women resort to misandry?
17. Incognito 17

    21 January 2023 at 1:24 pm

    But is he lucky?

    Hipkins will stay on [the same] course – the Labour Party policy re-set & re-calibration will continue mostly unchanged, IMO – but details such as his personal style (he is likeable) could and will hopefully make enough of a difference on 14 Oct. For example, his personal trademarks may not be “kindness” and “compassion” per se.

    Lately, calls for radical transformative change have increased, which is not surprising given the current socio-economic climate and the fact that it is Election Year. Hipkins will be aware of this and not necessarily and/or ideologically opposed to it, far from it, but he also knows that politics is the art of the possible, i.e., the how determines whether one gets there at all or not – it is not like scaling Mount Everest and then inevitably having to come down again, but it is also not anything like staying in the ‘middle of the road’ and being some kind of dogmatic ‘centrist’.

    Chris Hipkins, an Ardern lieutenant with multiple briefs including education, likewise insists that the aim is not just “tinkering around the edges of the neoliberal model.” Rather than being content with fixing a few “market failures,” ministers recognise that “the state does have a role in public services, that public service is different from the market, and that market decisions don’t always apply in the public sector.”

    …

    In her pragmatic and often under-theorised way, Ardern wants to reset the terms of political trade. But even if change is far-reaching, it will not be rapid. Her ally Hipkins stoutly defends the idea of “radical incrementalism.” Previous governments have, in his view, adopted one of two models: “crash-through” change in the 1980s, when New Zealand out-Thatchered Thatcher, or the muddle-through of more recent administrations, which have shied away from spelling out any end goals, lest it frighten the horses.

    Radical incrementalism, on the other hand, involves small steps towards an explicitly transformative goal. “If we want to make a long-term shift, we have got to do that in a considered and deliberative way,” Hipkins says. “You can,” he insists, “do big change, and bring people with you, if you explain what that big change looks like.” The Ardern administration, in other words, is gambling that the public will relax once they see that the initial moves don’t bring disaster.

    https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/igps/commentaries/1741419-jacinda-ardern-transforms-new-zealand [by Max Rashbrooke, 3 April 2019, i.e., before the pandemic]
    • pat 17.1

      21 January 2023 at 7:37 pm

      "Hipkins will stay on [the same] course – the Labour Party policy re-set & re-calibration will continue mostly unchanged, IMO "

      Agree he will with perhaps some marginal differences….it is worth remembering that Robertson will likely remain Finance Minister…..if he dosnt, then that indicates more substantial policy change.
18. UncookedSelachimorpha 18

    21 January 2023 at 1:31 pm

    Just watched the last half of Chris Hipkin's opening press conference. I thought he came across very well, and far more human and credible than Luxon (to me at least).

    I am optimistic (but worried) about the next election!
    • observer 18.1

      21 January 2023 at 1:36 pm

      Yes, he was very good. Like Ardern, his verbal clarity comes from mental clarity. In other words, he knows what he believes and is happy to share it.

      Whereas Luxon also knows what he believes but is terrified of sharing it. Hence the blather and bluster.
      • ianmac 18.1.1

        21 January 2023 at 4:13 pm

        In one of the columns today it was said that a Leader without a sense of humour will be poor leader. Chris Hipkins has a visible sense of humour and a twinkle in his eyes. Chris Luxon has neither. So…
      • left for dead 18.1.2

        22 January 2023 at 8:49 am

        True that statement..observer
19. SDCLFC 19

    21 January 2023 at 1:52 pm

    I know the choice of deputy is often strategic, and often about securing the support of large groups within the party.
    But an idea I like for Sepuloni is it could be setting a trap for Luxon/Willis during the campaign on Social Development when they continue to attack Beneficiaries.
    Not sure I know too much about what she is like and how good of a political operator she is, but maybe Labour fancy National trying to attack them there, and Sepuloni leading the response. National will secure their safe vote on the issue but in the process come off very cold and stale to middle New Zealand
20. tsmithfield 20

    21 January 2023 at 2:06 pm

    Congratulations to Chippie.

    I think he comes across as a very genuine person, and a heck of a nice guy. I also like the way he is always prepared to front up, regardless of how tough the interviewer is, and always seems cheerful, and offers a logical, considered response.

    A pity he is with the wrong party. LOL.

    I just hope that it is realised he has been given a hospital pass, and that he won't be dumped if Labour lose this time around.
    • mpledger 20.1

      22 January 2023 at 4:26 pm

      National haven't opened their mouths yet so there is nothing to put people off yet. Once they start trying to talk people into their ideas, I think people will go "You tried that, it failed, haven't you got anything new?" and the tide will gently swing back.
21. Tiger Mountain 21

    21 January 2023 at 2:29 pm

    A big mistake, the only bigger one would be the ineffective Ms Sepuloni as Deputy dog. WEAG anyone?…the MSD tops must just laugh.

    Mr Wood is the man who has actually delivered for working class people with FPAs and the return of NZ Coastal Shipping.
    • observer 21.1

      21 January 2023 at 2:36 pm

      If Michael Wood thought so, it would be a contested election.
      • Chess Player 21.1.1

        21 January 2023 at 5:06 pm

        Wood knows the chances of winning later this year are not great – he’ll be banking on Hipkins losing and resigning, then taking over from there.

        Hipkin’s already been there 15 years so it has to be either up, or out, for him at this point otherwise he’ll never achieve his dream to be PM.

        Trying to be PM later, means Hipkins will need to first become leader of Labour, and the opportunity may not present again for a while – even if it does, by then he’ll be considered stale goods, just as Little and Davis now are.
    • Anne 21.2

      21 January 2023 at 3:25 pm

      Perhaps not quite ready yet TM and I suspect he knows it which is why he pulled out. He probably wants a bit more of a ‘hands-on the political chess-game and how to play it' experience under his belt. Barring some unforeseen circumstance I believe he will be Party leader and PM one day.
      • Tiger Mountain 21.2.1

        21 January 2023 at 4:07 pm

        You are probably right Anne, I am just impatient as the clock ticks down. Labour still has a total MMP majority until October, and a feisty Wood could have reset things, but not to be.

        I was at a Labour Party public! meeting in Kelston a few years back when Andrew Little was leader, and Chris Hipkins was there with various others including Carmel Sepuloni–fair enough as she was a recognised West Auckland campaigner–and he was fine, but he toes the conservative Caucus line when it comes down to it.

        I hope enough women, like in the US midterms, flex their power in the 2023 General Election over the treatment of Jacinda Ardern and keep the Natzos and ACT out of office.
    • Bearded Git 21.3

      21 January 2023 at 10:42 pm

      Agreed Tiger but see my post above….it may work out ok.
      • Tiger Mountain 21.3.1

        22 January 2023 at 6:34 am

        Finally got back to your post Git and see your point!

        I am old school and like to see members and affiliates involved (not many of the latter left) but Labour did the right thing tactically here in the situation with a quick resolution. The pundits would have had great fun with a contested replacement for PM.
22. Ad 22

    21 January 2023 at 2:48 pm

    Appropriate nightwatch batters letting Wood and Kiri remain protected for rising in the aftermath.
23. Reality 23

    21 January 2023 at 3:33 pm

    Facetiously, wonder if Chris Hipkins had hired a Mercedes to get him to Parliament today for his anointing as PM?
    • Patricia Bremner 23.1

      21 January 2023 at 4:45 pm

      Chippy probably rode there on his bike and will have a tail wind all the way home

      All the best Chippy.
24. mary_a 24

    21 January 2023 at 4:06 pm

    Well done Chippie. The best person for the job as new Labour leader and PM in my opinion. He has strong political experience and is familiar with how the system works. Also he is amiable and is a good communicator, a big plus for political leaders, along with the fact he is very intelligent and is not a ditherer when it comes to policy making.

    The upcoming election debates will be entertaining. I can see Chippie knocking Luxon off his perch. Come to think of it, haven't heard much from the Nat leader today … hmm … strange, considering Chippie is making news in the majority of NZ media outlets today!

    Stock up on popcorn folks for later on in the year. I'm picking Hipkins will get Labour over the line come October 14.
    • Patricia Bremner 24.1

      21 January 2023 at 4:55 pm

      Yes Mary_a. He doesn't see it as a hospital pass. The re-set of Deputy will be interesting, plus Policy planks. We need to fund raise like mad and get our teams up and running.
    • observer 24.2

      21 January 2023 at 6:29 pm

      Yes, more than over the line I expect.

      It's amazing how little some people seem to learn from history. There are countless examples of leaders/parties winning elections from starting positions far worse than this one for Labour, in democracies all around the world. It's the endless hamster wheel of punditry … polls say X, predictions are made, predictions then proved wrong, then five minutes later we're back to the polls saying Y and pretending the past never happened.

      In 1991 President Bush (the first) had an astonishing approval rating of 90%. The Democrats basically gave up. In 1992 … he lost.
25. Stuart Munro 25

    21 January 2023 at 4:12 pm

    A good choice, and good luck to him.

    No doubt prewritten poison pen opinions await editing even now, as the so-called journalists take the weekend off to work on their spleen.
26. bwaghorn 26

    21 January 2023 at 5:45 pm

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131030961/becoming-pm-the-biggest-responsibility-and-the-biggest-privilege-of-my-life-says-chris-hipkins

    Reading couple of his uttering about aspiration and hard work , if I didn't know he was labour I would have said he was a nat.
    • UncookedSelachimorpha 26.1

      21 January 2023 at 6:11 pm

      I noticed that too. Uncomfortably close to dividing into deserving and undeserving – and the lie that with hard work, we can all be billionaires.
    • newsense 26.2

      21 January 2023 at 9:04 pm

      Wait- how did you think all those essential things essential workers do get done? Every deeply red person I know usually worked two jobs, plus community work such as sports coaching. The pay wasn’t the biggest factor.

      Nats inheritance is yet guy who got the dole over summer and spent it on his dad’s boat. The complaints keep the handouts coming, tax free to those who don’t need them.
      • bwaghorn 26.2.1

        22 January 2023 at 9:41 am

        Ya probably right, but aspirational was keynoccios catch phrase,so had a little chill run down my spine
27. Christopher Randal 27

    21 January 2023 at 5:48 pm

    The first thing the new PM should do is implement, in it's entirety, the recommendation of the Tax enquiry that Labour instigated then ignored.

    The second thing is to get really serious about fixing the Health system

    The third thing is to cancel Auckland Light Rail and use the money around the country to fix the roads.
    • lprent 27.1

      21 January 2023 at 7:46 pm

      Another fool speaks… But yes, I’d like to see a extended and better Capital Gains Tax.

      But this one…

      The third thing is to cancel Auckland Light Rail and use the money around the country to fix the roads.

      Even in NZTA, fixing roads is a different budget to putting in new transport links. It is paid from funds levied from vehicle owners and drivers via fuel taxes, road users charges, and some sundry taxes. If more money is required for fixing roads than is in the levies – then we really need to raise levies on road vehicles. Probably via the fuel tax or RUC.

      Since most of damage to the roads comes from loaded trucks. So the appropriate levy to significantly raise is the road user charges on loaded vehicles. Or possibly add a tax on diesel to reduce its emissions as well as having an economic effect.
      • bwaghorn 27.1.1

        22 January 2023 at 9:42 am

        Is that the same trucks that carry already to expensive food to your door ,? Taxing them more will only make food more expensive.
28. Peter 28

    21 January 2023 at 6:19 pm

    While it will be Chippy for PM, I think it is most likely later in the year it will also be Chippy for leader of the Opposition.
    • observer 28.1

      21 January 2023 at 6:35 pm

      Only if you think National can get through a year without saying anything.

      There is no evidence at all of a shift to the right. There is a shift to "opposition". That's a very different thing.

      With the usual exception of crime (which always favours the right) the public mood on climate change, health sector, education etc is for the government to do more, not less.

      Luxon wants to do less. He just hasn't said so out loud. Only David Seymour has.
      • lprent 28.1.1

        21 January 2023 at 7:58 pm

        I think that it is time to start stating National party policy. Since they don’t appear to have anything that isn’t just criticism of Labour policy, a slogan promise, and absolutely no detail – I think that it time to attribute National’s policy as being that of ACT.

        After all in a NAct government if it arrives, that appears to be their platform.
        • adam 28.1.1.1

          22 January 2023 at 12:47 am

          They Godless leading the greedy – NAct
        • Mike the Lefty 28.1.1.2

          22 January 2023 at 9:59 am

          Jacinda's closing act of fixing the election date of October 14 must have caught the NACTS a bit by surprise and it will certainly make National's lack of policy more glaringly obvious with every week that goes by.

          It is a kind of political tradition in NZ that the main opposition party keeps their policies fairly close to their chest in election year so that the government doesn't have the opportunity to counter argument, but that carries its own risk.

          Unless of course they don't have any policies, in which case they had better come up with some fairly quickly unless they think that they can sleep walk over the line.

          And no, I don't regard building more roads and more prisons as genuine policies, they are more like National default settings.
29. Grant Cairncross 29

    21 January 2023 at 6:53 pm

    This article is an extremely well referenced take down of all the bollocks the NZ MSM has been dishing up. Dishonestly at that.
    Distribute it widely and tell those people to distribute it widely etc,etc too.
    They have lied to you.
    Shamelessly.
    Click on the links. They all go to the OECD and other highly respected sources.
    NZ is doing very well in an extremely difficult global environment.
    Get. The. Message. Out.

    https://michaelwest.com.au/murdochs-wailing-old-white-man-scribes-get-jacinda-ardern-dead-wrong-again/

    [lprent: The accurate tag for this is

    As the world is thanking Jacinda Ardern profoundly for her 14 years in New Zealand’s Parliament and more than five as prime minister, a large number of white male scribes have joined in a frenzy of extraordinarily bitter attacks. Alan Austin reports on her economic performance.

    So it is relevant because it looks at claims and then provides data and links.

    The comment itself had my anti-troll instincts up. It pays to write about the content to say what it is about. Waffle doing promotion just resonates as trolling – please correct this in future. ]
30. Muttonbird 30

    21 January 2023 at 8:59 pm

    This is great. RW pundits are whacking themselves off something stupid over Chris Hipkins as some sort of saviour delivering NZ from total Māori control.

    How does egg-head fight this?
    • Anne 30.1

      21 January 2023 at 11:17 pm

      Egg Head was on TV1 news at 6pm.

      He said something along the lines:

      "It doesn't matter who is PM because they have done nothing. Nothing at all. We are going to do something."

      But he didn't say what the something was.

      He looked like he had just eaten a lemon. Not a happy chappie.
      • ianmac 30.1.1

        22 January 2023 at 8:39 am

        Was it because they did too much or not enough. He can't have it both ways.
        • Anne 30.1.1.1

          22 January 2023 at 10:11 am

          He was claiming that in their 5 plus years in office Labour have done nothing.

          That's a mind boggling statement given everything that has happened in the past 5 years. He looked anxious and pissed off. I wonder why. 😉
          • Incognito 30.1.1.1.1

            22 January 2023 at 11:33 am

            Luxon doesn’t mind handling ice creams and fries but fears a Chippy
      • fender 30.1.2

        22 January 2023 at 11:27 pm

        "But he didn't say what the something was"

        He'll have to do whatever he's told by the ACT party in order to have any chance of becoming PM. And just like that new House Speaker in the U.S he'll do whatever it takes to fulfill his egotistical ambition for the title.
31. Reality 31

    22 January 2023 at 10:31 am

    I think our new PM will deal very effectively with Luxon and challenge him. While I have the utmost admiration for Jacinda, I felt with all the toxicity and venom being thrown at her, there needed to be sharper responses towards that. Chris H can do that well I suspect as long as he doesn't descend to their level.
32. Muttonbird 32

    22 January 2023 at 9:42 pm

    Interesting. RW media will certainly be going after the PM's family life.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/shes-still-my-best-friend-chris-hipkins-details-marriage-split-in-plea-for-privacy/N3OMWCIYDNEBRPMO3COFZQRQWU/
33. SPC 33

    23 January 2023 at 7:01 am

    If Ch(ristopher) Hip(kins) does not like the known nickname Chippy, can we call him by his secret name "Rusty O'Pherkins"?
34. newsense 34

    24 January 2023 at 3:47 am

    Geez I tell you what, listening to her articulate the situation, could we bring her in as a guest PM for a couple of weeks or something?

    Thanks for staying in such great shape PM Clark! It makes the rest of us feel a lot younger…we don’t have to reminisce about when you were on the TV making us feel so happy to be Kiwis, as Jacinda has done. You still do! Fantastic to see you laughing and enjoying things. You don’t realise how important to the mental health it is to feel proud of and happy with your PM until you might lose them from the position.

    You’re confident in Chippy, how about the rest of us? Are we doing okay too? Heh.

    TVNZ breakfast interviews Helen Clark

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