Joyce for National leader?

Written By: - Date published: 10:23 am, March 28th, 2012 - 36 comments
Categories: national, Steven Joyce - Tags:

Ipredict reckons there’s 60% odds Key won’t be National leader in 3 years. Whether you think that’s too low or high, it brings an important fact into resolution – the next National leader is in Parliament, probably a minister right now. People talk about Parata but she’s a lightweight and she has no camp of supporters. Collins and Joyce are the options. Mike’s just had a look at Collins’ style, let’s examine Joyce’s.

Whereas Collins is a stab in the back creature, Joyce is a positional player.

Collins operates in a stealthy manner. She betrays trusts and tries to upset her opponents, who often thought they were her friends, with unexpected moves, then backs herself to muscle in and fill the resulting power vacuum herself.

Joyce quite openly and ponderously manoeuvres himself into positions of institutional power and then acts. He plays to his strengths as an organiser.

Hence his formation of the mega-ministry. It comes on the back of a reputation he has built as a minister who gets things done, which owes more to the fact he just ignores public opinion and does what he wants than any gift for leadership. The mega-ministry serves no other purpose than to advance Joyce’s political career. As mega-minister, he will get a lot more air-time, and he will have the power to dole out responsibilities and patronage to more junior ministers assigned to parts of his mega-ministry.

He is creating for himself a ‘mini-PM’ role to both convince the public he is up to filling the big shoes and build loyalty within caucus. It’s a clever strategy and implies planning several years in advance.

But Joyce’s weakness is his small businessman instincts – that nose for a dirty deal, whether with SkyCity, or Huawei, or Mediaworks which leaves him exposed to opponents who manage to open up the world of backroom favours and kickbacks he inhabits. And, recently, he has been caught out several times being uncertain or simply wrong on basic fiscal issues that a minister for economic development ought to know.

So, which will win? It’s hard to know at this point. Joyce’s strategy is slow-paced. He will need to be in a position where he has already tied up the leadership race before Key signals he will step down. Because sure as Joyce is thinking ahead so is Collins but, where he’s building networks, she’s thinking about how to isolate him. In the cut and thrust of a leadership race, Collins’ more adaptable and aggressive approach may win out. I would say that Joyce faces an uphill battle, unless Collins is hoist by one of her own petards.

The tortoise or the botoxed hare – who will succeed, or roll, Key? And, given they’re both Tory scum, does it really matter in the end?

36 comments on “Joyce for National leader?”

  1. Kotahi Tane Huna 1

    Collins all the way. Her divisive, destructive style would do lasting damage in caucus before during and after her incumbency. She has to be the candidate the left supports.

    • Kotahi Tane Huna 1.1

      After reading a few of the other comments perhaps Joyce has his merits: bland, uninspiring, unelectable.

  2. King Kong 2

    Well said. I especially like the bit where, because Collins is a woman, you had a crack at her looks. Tory scum indeed

    • Blighty 2.1

      Um. How is mentioning someone uses botox attacking someone for their looks? There was nothing negative in the mention. It’s like saying ‘the bearded Cunliffe’

      and your false feminism is pretty much a joke when you consider that just yesterday everyone spent the day taking the piss out of Brownlee’s weight.

      • Jim Nald 2.1.1

        The question is can we hear Key having a crack at Collins after having a go at Brownlee and saying it is no secret Gerry is “a large unit”:
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10794946

        Saw the snippet “Brownlee did not so much apologise for what he had said as apologise for people not seeing the humour in it” – gosh, that is from Armstrong and I am reading his pieces again after a long period having given up on him.

  3. Lanthanide 3

    I think Joyce simply doesn’t have the charisma to lead the country.

    Collins also gets bonus points for being a woman and breaking glass ceilings and such.

  4. deuto 4

    For the heck of it, I was looking at Ipredict just before this post went up (not a supporter and don’t participate) and noted that their odds for next Natioanl Party leader had Collins at 38%, Perata at 19.8% and Joyce at 15.9%. These odds have been reasonably steady for some weeks at least.

    But just in the last hour or so, Collins’ odds have dropped to 32% with today’s trading so far totalling 92 vs a daily average of 29.2.

    IMO, I would not like to see any of them as PM.

    Also noted that Ipredict’s “Another NZ Minister to depart in 2012” is still running at about the 79% mark.

    • muzza 4.1

      iPredict, what a shame that politics is now seen as nothing more than a game, a sport, and surely people with a cogent thought process can see that it flies right into the face of sanity!

      None of these people are fit to run a bath!

      Bah humbug!

    • Dr Terry 4.2

      Collins would make Jenny Shipley look like the mildest Prime Minister we ever had!

  5. Tamati 5

    Joyce has as much charisma as a loaf of stale bread! He may lead some of the policy development, but the public would never stomach him. He’d turn out to be the Nats Gordon Brown, effective behinds the scenes but loathed in the top job. Besides, the Nats would never pick a list MP as their leader.

  6. felix 6

    I’d like it to be Collins for the sheer enjoyment of watching her implode under the force of her own arrogance.

    But I just don’t think she’ll make it. Too many skeletons to trip her up.

  7. Colonial Viper 7

    People talk about Parata but she’s a lightweight and she has no camp of supporters.

    Don’t forget that John Key roared out of nowhere from zero to hero very quickly, once caucus colleagues had his popular electorate potential individually “explained” to them.

    • muzza 7.1

      “Don’t forget that John Key roared out of nowhere from zero to hero very quickly, once caucus colleagues had his popular electorate potential individually “explained” to them”

      But, wait, hold…on, we have demoracy in NZ…..are you saying it was all an accident, and JK roared to the top organically!

      woops, I follow you….you mean that whoever the sponsors decide will be the next puppet, will be the next puppet….

      • Colonial Viper 7.1.1

        Indeed, just think of the mechanations which went into gifting Key the National nomination for Helensville over the incumbent MP. And that was just the start.

      • alex 7.1.2

        Which makes me think it will not be Joyce. He is the puppet master, not the puppet, so why would he ruin his career by being the front man for a government that will only get less popular?

    • felix 7.2

      Exactly.

  8. Just the thought of someone in the current National government pulling a Shipley makes me giddy.

    • David H 8.1

      But it would be worth it to see the look on Keys face as he realists that he’s not important anymore.

  9. Tim 9

    @King King…Let’s even the balance then shall we?
    Jerry Brownlee is a fat ugly ignorant thug whose best attribute would be an ability to hold up a landslide in Christchurch, and Steven Joyce is just plain ugly in every respect.
    That make you feel better?
    Unfortunately it seems ugly people don’t rate in politics (whether looks or personality) – how John Key ever got past the test I can’t explain though.

  10. George D 10

    Why not English? While he does have some baggage, I could see him pulling most of the same notes that Key does. If he starts to take the limelight in the next few years, we need to watch him.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      English will remain Deputy PM if National win in 2014.

      • George D 10.1.1

        I accept that’s your position, and that he’s expressed little public ambition, but who says it’s a given? It’s not self-evident that a former party leader wouldn’t at some stage want the position again.

        I really dislike him, but I could see him being reasonably popular as leader or PM, more so than most of the frontbench.

  11. Akldnut 11

    “Bring Back Brash”

  12. Just heaven forbid we have Gerry Brownlee get any closer to the National Party leadership than he currently is. Brownlee is a granite monolith on the political landscape cumbersome and unwieldy in dealing with sensitive subjects such as the revival of New Zealand’s second city.

  13. Enough is Enough 13

    The 10 year plan intitiated by Boag will be realised this term. They will have achieved what they set out to achieve in 2001/2002 when Boag parachuted Brash and Key into the positions of power.

    Although they would like to win the next elction, the job will be done and those running the show now can retire to far off tax havens.

    The next Nat leader will be a caretaker in the way that English was.

    The National insiders will be on the hunt right now for the next ‘Key’. He is unlikely to be in Parliament right now. More likely to be making millions off shore. He will not have the interests of New Zealand at heart now nor in the future. He will be brought in to undertake the next round of theft in about 5 years time.

    • Treetop 13.1

      Whoever leads the National party after the next general election in 2014 will be the leader of the opposition. Simon Power was too good for his own party; I bet he is so thankful that he bailed out when he did. He knew alright.

  14. ianmac 14

    Rumour has it that Steven Joyce is making preliminary counts to assess his support. It is only a question of time but insiders don’t expect Judith Collins to take it lying down. Some staunch National Supporters are perturbed at the disquiet but some say that Key will have to decide whether to go before the next Election or after. In his calculations is an unwillingness to be just the Leader of the diminished Opposition. (You see? Easy to write for MSM.)

    • felix 14.1

      “Key will have to decide whether to go before the next Election or after”

      Do you pick him for someone who fancies his score in the history books as:

      “Won 2, retired” or

      “Won 2, Lost 1”?

  15. bad12 15

    Achully, we pick him to be a arrogant little shyster (are we allowed to say that sortta stuff here), who will cling onto the power rush for another term knowing that He still has a number of our assets left as tasty morsels to dangle in front of the greedy as for sale in an attempt to keep the Party,s vote with him,

    Key,besides his own fanboy club of acolyte MPs has created 3 distinct heavy weight power blocks in Joyce,Brownlee,and,Collins,we dont see him having done this on a mere whim and there is no real economic or social imperative for such a move so we see the concentration of power in those 3 as purely political,

    Our view is that Key has simply built Himself a shield to avoid the Brat Packers from giving Him one in the back befor 2014 which Key thinks he will win based solely upon the lolly of more partial asset sales,

    We cant see Collins,Brownlee or Joyce being able to offer the Brat Packers anything more than what they have now as the 30 pieces of silver which would enable a palace coup,

    We could tell Slippery Key now that its all much wasted effort for little result as its obvious to all but the most dense that should both Sharples and Turia retire at the next election the Party aint got a bulls roar chance of a 3rd term….

    [lprent: yes. Have a look at the policy. So long as you stick to opinion and speculation and avoid misusing matters of fact then you can say a lot about political figures. Be more cautious when it comes to non-political. The moderators will limit you if you hit the bounds of whatvwe will allow. ]

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  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago

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