Labour can win led by Phil Goff

Written By: Mike Smith - Date published: 5:28 pm, July 31st, 2010 - 146 comments
Categories: election 2011, labour, phil goff, Politics - Tags:

Chris Carter is wrong. Labour can win the next election led by Phil Goff. The objective conditions make it possible, and there is enough time. That’s true even if Key calls an early election to gain the financial benefits of National’s new electoral law, as some have predicted on this site.

First the objective conditions. The media is fixated on the polls, understandably as they have stayed very positive for National for the last two years. Much of that has been built on the combination of John Key’s easy confidence matching New Zealanders’ desire for a quick recovery from the global financial crisis. But the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day, which is at least a year away. Economic growth prospects are now beginning to show serious signs of slippage, with consumer confidence polls leading economists to refer to a shift in the pace of future growth from a canter to a trot. If it slows to a walk, or worse if there are signs that the horse is lame, even John Key’s considerable public relations skills will not be enough to hold National’s numbers up.

This is all the more so as it is increasingly clear that Key’s goal of matching Australia by 2025, made so much of while in opposition and repeated in government, is nothing more than a cynical mirage. Bill English has reverted to classic old-style small-government Toryism. Gerry Brownlee and economic development have been revealed to be oxymoronic. The cycleway is a goat track, and Party central should rightly be called VIP central, somewhere for Murray McCully to buy expensive wine on the taxpayer’s account. Everybody else is worried about their future security and how to pay the bills on their own pay.

Secondly there is time, plenty of time. One of the more fatal delusions in politics as in life is that what goes up stays up, and that what stays up stays up forever. New Zealand Labour’s experience in 2002 and Australian Labor’s experience in 2010 both show how quickly things can change in the context of an election campaign, when voters concentrate their minds on the choices available and the issues on their minds.

Phil Goff doesn’t have to work any harder to win. That’s not his problem; his work ethic is legendary. But he does have to work smarter. As others on this site have said, National doesn’t have a plan, and that is true. But it also raises the question, what is Labour’s plan? There are lots of voters in New Zealand who are desperate not to see the continuation of the destructive path back to the 1980’s taken by the National-ACT government, but don’t yet see a convincing alternative from Labour. Phil Goff needs to set out a clear and convincing economic plan. The elements of it are there already; his willingness to consider alternatives to the monetarist straitjacket of the 1980’s was courageous and necessary. It needs to be expanded and developed, and in David Cunliffe and David Parker he has more than sufficient firepower willing and able to assist and explain.

Phil Goff also needs a more effective political strategy. It is not about a move to the middle or a distancing from past Labour governments as some in the media are advising. Andrew Campbell put it well yesterday on the radio – Labour should pull out its values and go to bat for them. It’s time to get on the front foot, speak to what we in Labour all believe, and say what Labour will do to address the issues that matter to New Zealanders. That is what people want to hear, not another reactive comment tagged onto a Tory story. Once again there is plenty of talent in the Labour caucus, more than enough to get on the front foot and take the fight to their opposites in the government.

Phil Goff has said it himself. I got a message from him as a Party member explaining Chris Carter’s demotion; it concluded:

New Zealanders are today confronting prices rising faster than wages, and a Government that has no idea how to create the jobs and future we need. That’s got to be Labour’s priority and focus.

I couldn’t agree more. The change in the Leader’s office with Gordon-John Thompson appointed as Chief of Staff is a sign that Labour is ready to step up the priority and focus on these issues and create these ideas. That is what will win the next election for Labour and Phil Goff.

A final word on Chris Carter. In my view we in Labour should not judge him too harshly. I had the opportunity to see him at close hand in the Mount Albert by-election, and no-one worked harder than him, nor could anyone doubt his dedication to Labour’s success. His mistake in my view was to believe what he feared, and defeat in politics as in sport starts in the head. But so does victory; and whatever one’s view of Chris’ actions, they should not continue to be the issue.

I believe Labour can win under Phil Goff’s leadership – I welcome his call to focus on that. There is much to do.

146 comments on “Labour can win led by Phil Goff ”

Comments are now closed

swimmer 1

31 July 2010 at 5:58 pm

Yes indeed he can. 🙂
- ZB 1.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 9:26 am
  
  Key is a speculator, a man who made his living taking risks over the NZ economy. Key knows nothing about how to serve the people when he has spent a life serving the bottom line. Goff has been abysmal at hitting the Key points, that we are in a crisis so deep and worsening. As oil is used up, pollution builds up (direct from burning the oil and indirect by unforeseen structural harms like plastic bags and surburbs needing high dense fuels for cars to access), but the cost of cleaning up pollution is proportionate to the cost of high dense fuels, so when you have used up significant amounts of oil then the pollution not only begins to overwhelming, but the costs start to rise in cleaning up the plastic bags floating in the middle of the pacific, the cost rise to restructure the suburban sprawl, and the cost rise to build everything from sea walls to solar panels on all the roofs. But its worse, cheap oil and debt fueled a run away speculative debt addict elite, and left millions of kiwis in cold homes! Gangs are criminal unions who could provide better than their civil union counterparts! Civil rights for a few refugees has been used to cover over the systemic child poverty! No wonder young men leave their pregnant girlfriends (who can get a benefit) and seek out gangs to gain status! Inequality growth!
  
  Now how is it I can highlight the political and social in one paragraph, and Goff has said nothing, absolutely nothing of any merit, on any of the crisises currently feeding back one another. Cheap fuel fed cheap finance, pollution and cheap society, expensive to solve financial, pollution and social costs all build up feeding each other as energy costs rise, so pollution clean up costs do, as debt rises so does the social harm, and the social harm forces up taxes to pay for prisions and welfare, and health, and child poverty. We keep clapping these numbnuts like Key, Brash, and other economists, who pander to the one profit rings to rule us all, and absolutely nothing of any merit is discussed.
  
  Goff is just as incapable as Key to address, and Key is selling one brand that does work with the electorate, denial.
  What has Goff got? Denial II? National lite? Please you can’t serious believe Labour can win just on the basis that Key didn’t know what the frak he was doing when he thought nobody would notice the balance sheet get heavier for most people, GST, ACC Levies, etc? Well okay maybe Goff can, Labour could slip in if Key doesn’t go early before the GST kicks in.
  But that’s the point, Key is thinking he could jump now and Labour are running a smoke screen that Key might hate, a new principled Labour leader, Shane Jones, or Carter, or another now widely recognized name. Angry, flawed, but has had it up to here with the politics of denial.
  
  Labour will win, Goff or not, if they get angry and talk tough about the economy stupid and how it has failed kiwis with gimmicks and lies. I bet most kiwis didn’t see any of the millions of profits that slosh around, where was our cut, how is it our homes are under water, if this is rich why does it suck so much? The right have failed to deliver, the left should say as much.
  - loota 1.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 9:35 am
    
    Passion and anger on behalf of the people mate, to show NZ’ers that they are being heard and understood by their leaders. Godsdammit can Goff and King please show some of that burn you have expressed here ZB.
    - ZB 1.1.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 12:03 pm
      
      Nah. Boyracers loud noisy cars going past all night. Parking up. Turning into our road and then suddenly getting very loud. Just when I vent I like to be positive and build off. Like a jazz musician who plays the emotion in the music (or lousy noise) in others, towards my own song. National could do themselves a big favor and have Hamilton police crackdown on the boy racers because I wouldn’t be so sleepy and steamed. Yeah, what gives with that? I thought National were against noisy stupid cars running around all night and day, and where do they get the money! I mean are they students, why hasn’t the university cracked down on behaviour causing their institution to be held in contempt (alledgely). It must be about time that the last few boy racers must be rich prick kids because I don’t see anyone being able to afford the risk of losing their jobs when the boss comes looking for someone to fire. I mean how hard is it to fire someone whose own neighbors give them a character reference? If I were a boss and needed to shift some risk taking dope on the books, who rides a stupid car, all I need do is go house hunting in the area and knock on neighbors doors asking about how pleasent it is there. People should wake up, insecurity is everywhere and nobody likes the denial of elites or the arrogant charm of invincible young testostrone. We need builders and baggers who push the envelope out to build the new economy by bagging the old one, not the sad old elite sitting on their bags, or the smart young twerps who in their brilliance have discovered that cars can be made noisy. Like isn’t that where the cars came in, a bloke running after a car with a red flag 1910?, and everyone saying cars won’t catch on because they make too much noise! Seeing out the auto the way it came in. 😉
  - swimmer 1.1.2
    
    1 August 2010 at 1:03 pm
    
    I can’t agree with you Goff is well informed on every one of those issues that you’ve raised and I might remind you that it is very hard for the leader of the opposition to get any air time. I also think he can do it.
SHG 2

31 July 2010 at 6:02 pm

Goff needs a significant improvement in his preferred-PM polling numbers. Like… getting out of single figures.
- James Barber 2.1
  
  2 August 2010 at 9:13 am
  
  a very sensible position.
ASA 3

31 July 2010 at 6:12 pm

I agree with you – just look across the Tasman for motivation and the sudden collapse in Labor support. Opinion polls over there are starting to indicate that changing the leader may not necessarily be the solution. As far as NZ goes, the true right wing nature of NACT is out in the open now, typified by Anne Tolley finally being honest and admitting that primary school league tables are inevitable, on top of proposed changes to employment law.
You make your points very well. It is indeed time for Labour to start stating repeatedly what Labour stands for, rather than just attack NACT moves. Move on to the front foot, and attack the bowling, to use a cricketing metaphor. Repetition will get the message through.
Phil Goff can do the job and there is a well of talent to support him. I also believe that Goff’s decisive leadership over Carter will be seen as a plus, not a negative, and this decisiveness will counteract Carter’s claims that Goff isn’t the guy for the job. The proof is in the pudding, as it were. It is time for everyone opposed to NACT, regardless of party, to start a campaign saying enough is enough, we’re not going to take any more.
- SHG 3.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 6:31 pm
  
  I don’t think Australian Labor’s collapse in the past 48 hours is a particularly inspiring example for the Left…
  - Puddleglum 3.1.1
    
    31 July 2010 at 7:12 pm
    
    I suppose it depends whether or not the ‘collapse’ (I guess you mean in some polls?) had anything to do with ‘Left’ policies or pronouncements. What do you think?
  - just saying 3.1.2
    
    1 August 2010 at 1:19 pm
    
    Re Aussie Labor’s “collapse”: It should be noted that, in Aussie, the PM was replaced by someone to the right of him. In New Zealand, the leader of NZLP is a tory and the party would be hard pressed to find anyone to the right of him.
    
    People are angry. More people will be angry. But Goff wont be angry until the upper middle class is hurting and angry. And it’ll be too little, too late.
- RobertM 3.2
  
  1 August 2010 at 7:36 pm
  
  Its somewhat more complex. Rudd was always intended only for the election at least as PM. The intention was always to put Gillard in as soon as she had the numbers. It was the same with Moore and Helen. Abbots rise partly reflects the fact that apart from all his flaws he has a brilliant mind, a worldclass academic record and ruthlessnes unmatched since Robert Menzies and a degree of Menzies judgement. Like Menzies he will eventually establish a dominance of the political environment. None of that is remotely true of Goff.
  I admit to disliking Goff, when pushed at the election I believe he will prove a rabid populist, more likely to implement rapid pro police or reactionary social and health policy than even Peters. Goff is a second rater, incapable of the strong stand Helen Clark took on world and environmental issues.
  The arguement that Labour has nobody else is nonsense, Mallard and Clayton Cosgrove could appeal more generally and maintain Labours support in the Mt Roskill bible belt.
  I agree with Carter on this issue,the assertion by Goff and McCarten is unwell is outrageous, from Trotter the journalistic fuhuer it is to be expected. One hopes that the Labour left will have the strengh to ensure as with Moore that Goff dosen’t win. Andrew Little deserves a pat on the back for steady handling of the issue and may enjoy a long career as the Simon Crean of NZ politics.
  - just saying 3.2.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 8:44 pm
    
    “I admit to disliking Goff, when pushed at the election I believe he will prove a rabid populist, more likely to implement rapid pro police or reactionary social and health policy than even Peters”
    
    Goff’s authoritarian-conservative streak is a mile wide. On every issue I can think of, he has come out further right than the last Labour government. If Winston reenters the race, Labour will bleed more than National.
graham 4

31 July 2010 at 6:46 pm

All i can say whatever you are smokeing it must be good
I mean for a second i thought this was satire
- harry 4.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 6:58 pm
  
  Drinking alone again are we, graham?
  - graham 4.1.1
    
    31 July 2010 at 7:10 pm
    
    No i dont drink
    sitting in my own home with my wife and kids having a cup of tea reflecting on a hards days work
    I do understand that the concept of work might pass you bye
    - harry 4.1.1.1
      
      31 July 2010 at 7:51 pm
      
      That’s “by” graham, not “bye” and “day’s” not “days”. You might do better to reflect on getting some basic literacy training there georgy-boy.
loota 5

31 July 2010 at 6:49 pm

What’s that old line?

“It’s the economy, stupid.”
graham 6

31 July 2010 at 6:49 pm

I will give you credit for one thing though labour has to stand for something more than sleeze
Where did perk busting get ACT
Sleeze atacks aganist john key hurt you they dont help you
- Draco T Bastard 6.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 7:24 pm
  
  Well, then, as sleaze attacks don’t work we’ll just have to keep telling the truth.
  - graham 6.1.1
    
    31 July 2010 at 7:37 pm
    
    Your attacks arent working dont you get it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    - Draco T Bastard 6.1.1.1
      
      31 July 2010 at 9:49 pm
      
      Telling the truth isn’t an attack – merely the truth.
marsman 7

31 July 2010 at 6:50 pm

Great post Mike. Time to stop defending and start fighting. Squash the Nact Scam.
graham 8

31 July 2010 at 6:58 pm

It seems like a scene from hitlers last days stuck in the bunker while everything collapses around him. If you think phil can win Sorry i still am LMAO
I mean you think he can win???????????????????????
what planet do You live on??????????????
Doug 9

31 July 2010 at 7:30 pm

At least Trevor Gets it.

chris73 says:
July 31, 2010 at 12:00 pm

A vote for Phil Goff is a vote for a prosperous NZ

One month ban for lying. Trevor

http://blog.labour.org.nz/index.php/2010/07/31/keys-lie-puts-free-trade-deal-down-us-agenda/
- swimmer 9.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 8:09 pm
  
  No – Chris 73 was quoting someone else and then Trevor wrote over what Chris 73 said with the ban.
  - Doug 9.1.1
    
    31 July 2010 at 8:17 pm
    
    Are you sure it was not done on purpose?
    - felix 9.1.1.1
      
      31 July 2010 at 8:27 pm
      
      Yeah that was a coded message to Trevor’s secret army. They’re plotting to overthrow Goff and they secretly communicate by manipulating publicly visible comments on Red Alert.
      
      Srsly though if people would just learn to use quote marks…
      - swimmer 9.1.1.1.1
        
        31 July 2010 at 9:03 pm
        
        I hope not.
- Akldnut 9.2
  
  1 August 2010 at 8:25 pm
  
  Your link update Doug
  
  chris73 says:
  July 31, 2010 at 12:00 pmA vote for Phil Goff is a vote for a prosperous NZ
  
  One month ban for lying. Trevor
  
  Update
  Not my clearest moderating. Should have said balance of post deleted and one month ban for lying in the part I deleted. I can see the funny side of my error. Trevor
Jum 10

31 July 2010 at 7:37 pm

Other people on here have noticed what I continue to see when watching Parliament and its personalities and depth or not of the protagonists.

There is much talent across the Labour benches that we can thank the talents of Helen Clark and Michael Cullen for. As much as I loathe Douglas and Richardson their combined divisive policies to break New Zealanders’ spirits finally made polite, reserved Kiwis angry enough to march and in the mid age groups that is still remembered and learned from and that will be the strength of the Labour Party. GreyPower, while apolitical, will be watching the stealth selling of our land and workers’ rights which comprise the very people who will be paying taxes to support the olds.

The Unions must be supported. It is the only way New Zealanders will be able to continue to say they are New Zealanders instead of little americans. The strength of New Zealanders as individuals and the ability to know when to belong to a cohesive group like Unions, or stand for local boards to prevent the Cits and Rats conservative right from controlling Auckland e.g. but able to think objectively still as individuals, is alive and well in New Zealand and Labour.

Goff is quiet but statesmanlike in his behaviour born of his many portfolios whilst in Labour. Key is cunning as all moneytraders are. His smile cannot hide the eyes of the ‘smiling assassin’. If New Zealanders choose a nincompoop like Key, my trust in them is misplaced.
- RobertM 10.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 7:52 pm
  
  I agree Jum, that the left could always rely on Douglas and Richardson. The could always be relied on to go to far and stuff up, reducing the support of the right. Also in their fundamentalism and equalism they were in someways as far left as Bradford. Anything fashionable and greenish like public transport, trams or coastguards would never get the support of Douglas and Richardson.
  Ive’ always regarded Act as a left wing front, somewhere to the left of the Greens. Richardson and Douglas are simply useful idiots to win some support from the Epsom right. Graham Scott is the same a secondary modern type idiot savant economist much like Alan Walters and Ingram who wrecked it for tThatcher.
Cnr Joe 11

31 July 2010 at 7:41 pm

Yeah Mike, lets crack on. Theres an election to prep for.
Think nationally – act locally. (grief – that so looks wrong).
anyhoo, heres to Christophers sayonara and Phillip rise to the top.
Come over for a drink graham, bring the wife and kids. Best she do the driving tho’ ay?
side show bob 12

31 July 2010 at 7:41 pm

Labour have two chances of winning the next election.
Stuff all chance
And no chance at all.
- harry 12.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 7:49 pm
  
  Ooh! “Stuff all chance and no chance” Burn! . You really are some kind of a wordsmith there bobby boy.
  - ZB 12.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 12:24 pm
    
    National, the right, does that a lot. Create the soils from whence blooms their own demise.
    
    But the spin all Labour, firstly taking the light off Key, second pushing Labour (however negatively but far out from an election that everyone who would vote labour would have forgotten or sided with them more firmly), thirdly it keeps Key guessing if he rushes to the electorate fearing a GST backlash. 33% GST anyone? Finally, it makes Labour the underdog, and reality says there’s huge potential for mayhem to unseat stupid.
    
    Personally I don’t think there is a Conservative on the right, they are all shrills for profit, hollowed and desperate.
graham 13

31 July 2010 at 7:47 pm

You accuse me of being drunk when this sort of s**t gets published
you are 20 points behind in the polls
no one likes phill
every time he opens his mouth in hansard some where in the last 30 years there is a flip flop

I want you to leave him there because he is my generations Bill Rowling
so abuse me all you want the fact remains labour is going down the tubes and their is nothing that you guys can do about it
LMAO
- swimmer 13.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 8:11 pm
  
  I do 🙂
  - WOOF 13.1.1
    
    31 July 2010 at 8:13 pm
    
    I do too 🙂 He’s going to take this party by the scruff of the neck and carry it to victory.
- lprent 13.2
  
  31 July 2010 at 11:53 pm
  
  So do I….
  
  Graham – I guess you mean RWNJ’s don’t like Phil – I wonder why?
  - TightyRighty 13.2.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 4:07 pm
    
    while not a nut job, I am right wing, and i love phil too. who else could have made such a wonderful blunder that ultimately led to carters letter? He should have fired the luxury loving gay boy when he had the chance. now national can coast to victory.
Doug 14

31 July 2010 at 7:50 pm

When we see on the News that Three Hats Little overrode Phil Goff what chance does Labour have.
graham 15

31 July 2010 at 7:56 pm

Sometimes i feel sorry for phil with those back stabbing bastards behind him
cunlife and little are more concerned with being the next leader than winning
but then i remind my self that is another left wing prasite that hasnt done a real job for 30 years
- harry 15.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 8:03 pm
  
  You mean “parasite” graham, I’m not surprised you struggle to contribute anything here or to society when you struggle so hard to express yourself properly, you poor thing.
  - Lanthanide 15.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 1:01 pm
    
    I don’t think making fun of someone’s illiteracy is particularly becoming.
    
    Of course if National hadn’t all-but-closed-down nightschooling he might have an opportunity to improve himself, c’est la vie.
gobsmacked 16

31 July 2010 at 8:09 pm

One of the more fatal delusions in politics as in life is that what goes up stays up, and that what stays up stays up forever.

Hear, hear. It’s amazing how often this basic lesson has to be learned, and re-learned, and re-learned. If everything is so cut and dried, why aren’t all the political pundits billionaires? Why haven’t they made multiple fortunes, betting on election results (which they get wrong), or the global markets (thanks for the heads-up in 2008 guys … oh, you forgot to tell us it was coming?). And why don’t the tedious trolls on here post their comments from gilded mansions? Come on guys, if it’s a stone cold certainty, why haven’t you put your house on it? You know why. You’re afraid you could be wrong.

Things that were certain, according to the all-knowing commentators:

George Bush’s victory in 1992 (polling 80% plus, a year before). John Major’s defeat in 1992 (um, he won). Or in 2010, David Cameron strolling home in a Tory landslide, a “certainty” only months before, and Kevin Rudd coasting to a second term (who?). And back here, we had Labour in 2002 (poll high 53%, vote 41%), and Peter Dunne appearing from nowhere (predict that, did ya? Bollox you did) and Rodney Hide in 2005 (he could NOT win Epsom, them TV people said so), and Labour in serious danger in Mt Albert (copyright Ralston, Espiner, etc) and so on and so on until I’ve broken this old keyboard. History is chock-full of them. All the time.

In short: if people want to make a case against Labour/Goff on the basis of policy, that’s a debate worth having. That’s one for grown-ups.

But if you’re reduced to infantile blabbering “polly wolly polly polls”, do the world a favour and give us back the oxygen you’re wasting. Because either you’ve never lived, or you’ve never learned. Maybe both.
Pascal's bookie 17

31 July 2010 at 8:18 pm

Labour needs to sop talking about what they oughta do and get on with doing it. All this public navel gazing is so much distraction. They need to stop thinking about Labour and start thinking about labour.

As noted, the issues are there. Cunliffe has obviously been doing some thinking around macro stuff. Thta’s great. TINA is dead. There needs to be an alternative, what we’ve been having for the last 30 years isn’t cutting it, and if Labour doesn’t present one soon, NACT will fill the vacuum next term.

I don’t give a shit who their leader is, but someone needs to step up and fight. there are plenty of people out there that are struggling, and no one is fighting for them. The leader needn’t be the one to articulate that passion, in fact it’s probably best that they don’t, but someone on the team needs to. Preferably a small group of the new intake, going hard rhetorically against the NACT agenda. Tie that on to Cunliffe’s work and have the leadership be above the rhetoric, but supportive of the sentiment. “I might not phrase it that way, but the fact is that many people are hurting, and have been hurting for a long time. Things have to change if we are going to progress. There are many countries that have sped away from us over the last thirty years. It’s not radical to look at how those countries have done it, even if Roger Douglas disagrees”

Ignore Trotter’s anti women, anti Maori bs. Labour needs to hold onto what Maori support it still has, and it needs it’s liberals. Endangering that support to try and win back voters who switched because of the ‘pc gone mad’ bullshit is a mug’s game.

Labour needs to win those voters back by demonstrating that it is going to also fight for them.
- felix 17.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 8:30 pm
  
  Damn straight.
- Outofbed 17.2
  
  1 August 2010 at 8:43 am
  
  But Goff was a strong Douglas supporter his natural inclination is to the right.
  And economically labour is a centre right party lets face it,in economics TINA rules it seems
  I could never ever vote for a party whose leader was one of the Douglas gang
  If you want left vote fucking left
  - swimmer 17.2.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 9:27 am
    
    You have to dig up ancient history to even criticise the guy. I don’t care what he was like nearly 30 years ago – he’s not like that now.
    - ZB 17.2.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 12:27 pm
      
      Its irrelevent Labour went right to stay in contention, while the media powered up massive doses of far-right America economic bullcrap. Fact is the US, Uk, EU, economies are dogs, neo-conervative neo-liberal simple stupid isn’t something anyone is going to stand by, and it sticks far easier to Key that anyone in parliament, he is after all the personification of the stupid economics of profits only and screw the economy.
cough cough 18

31 July 2010 at 8:24 pm

*cough* *cough* bullshit *cough*
- swimmer 18.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 9:28 am
  
  Cough, cough was written before my 9.27 am the next day comment. 🙂
swimmer 19

31 July 2010 at 8:25 pm

I agree, except I think the leader needs to be seen to be fighting too or it will look like he doesn’t care.
- ZB 19.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 12:33 pm
  
  Yeah, so you need everyone to shout, get out there Goff. Oops, that’s why Labour cut itself bagging Carter out the door and pushing Goff into a bind.
  
  Look most peoplem, even on the right, hate the idea of losing money and stupid economics have made them lose lots of the stuff and likely lose lots more. So Key running off to the far right, bashing unions, tearing up GST and ACC for cash to stoke more rich pricks to pull their finger out. Geez, like anyone doesn’t know their game now! They talk up profits, bag them up before they make any and rush to the bank, often times they are the banks. So who wants that, most business people want security and National, and the right wing in power across the media and government in the debtor nations aren’t changing their spots fast enough. All it takes is to set the game, and its starts by setting Goff up to be pulled up into the frame and get his anger and frustration out full on Key’s sorry stupid act naff goverment.
Rharn 20

31 July 2010 at 8:31 pm

I’m in the camp of the ‘doubting Thomases. To date there is no indication that Goff can get anywhere near the figures to win. Now having said that his performance has improved, ok not by much, but still an improvement. We have not seen Goff in election mode as a leader. I suspect that the country may be in for a surprise.

If Goff can outdo Key in the debates and that should not be too hard and there are no gaffs of any kind between now and the polling date then Labour still have an outside chance. They will need to either stitch up a deal with the Maori Party and this should be done prior to the election, if not then Labour need to tell Sharples and Turia under no circumstances will they do a deal with the Maori Party after the election. The Maori Party need to be sidelined and a no dealstatement is the best way of doing it. They (Labour) should develop policies that will bring working class Maori back into the Labour fold. There is some risk in this but as things now stand Labour need to do some drastic thinking and an ultimatum to the Maori Party alighn with us now or we will go after your voter might be the catalyst to bring Labour back into Government. Like what have Labour got to lose with some hardball politicks………….nothing.
johnbrash 21

31 July 2010 at 8:41 pm

JKey doesn’t gett regular people. Hew lives in his posh house in his posh neighborhood with his posh wife. Phill has to play up the fact that he doesn’t have much money
- infused 21.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 11:54 am
  
  That’s retarded. One of the reason I believe Labour lost a lot of support was the continuing attacks on the rich.
- ZB 21.2
  
  1 August 2010 at 12:41 pm
  
  Oh, that gem. You want to be rich like Key one day, help him out so all your hard work won’t be for nothing if you take away his wealth and ability to make moola! When its paupable that helping rich people to stay rich by sitting on their fat behinds and counting the numbers into bank accounts isn’t going to make the Rich any more competitive, rather the contrary, they will expect another hand up when their debt addiction hits a cash flow wall again, and your’ll owe them again because you helped them dig themselves deeper. Too rich to fail.
  Regular people should stop idolizing the rich and get over themselves, few ever are and from watching, those that do make it find they suddenly hit pay dirt over night. Because to get that stinking rich you must ride some clear explosion of activity and be in the eye of it. Few ever are and everyone is vying for position. So just enjoy lifes luxuries that do come your way, it will probably save the planet too.
- J Mex 21.3
  
  2 August 2010 at 5:29 pm
  
  John Brash – Phil is also a millionaire. He lives on a posh property in a posh area. How can he play up the fact that he doesn’t have money?
  - felix 21.3.1
    
    2 August 2010 at 6:36 pm
    
    Yeah I guess they’re both pretty much the same then. They’re both 50millionaires and they both live in mansions in Parnell etc.
    
    Whatever. Key is so far out of touch with ordinary people it’s not funny.
    - J Mex 21.3.1.1
      
      2 August 2010 at 8:00 pm
      
      Sigh. I never said they were the same. Just that the statement “Phill (sic) has to play up the fact that he doesn’t have much money’ is based on a falacy. Phil has money. Phil probably has more money than 95% of NZers and would earn more than 99% of NZers.
      
      Actually, f**k it. Go for broke. Go nuts talking about that mean rich man Key. Shout it to anyone who will listen for the next year. It worked so well for you guys last time.
      - felix 21.3.1.1.1
        
        2 August 2010 at 8:46 pm
        
        That’s retarded. Everyone in parliament is probably paid more than 99% of us. Compared to Key though, most of them still don’t have much money.
        
        That’s how out of touch he is. Makes rich people look normal. Doesn’t even know how much milk and bread cost. Normal rich people know these things.
        
        comedy 21.3.1.1.1.1
        
        2 August 2010 at 9:03 pm
        
        So about the same amount of outta touch as Helen was in relation to issues about families and kids ?
        
        felix …
        
        2 August 2010 at 9:20 pm
        
        WTF does Helen have to do with it (except in the minds of a few obsessive misogynists who can’t let go of the hate)?
        
        Your comments are becoming so irrelevant lately comedy. The formula seems to be “if x compares a to b, comedy compares b to parsnip”
        
        comedy …
        
        2 August 2010 at 10:14 pm
        
        Who’s comparing you to b ?
        
        Lew …
        
        2 August 2010 at 10:21 pm
        
        A parsnip, apparently.
        
        L
barry 22

31 July 2010 at 8:47 pm

Goff can’t win unless National implodes at this rate. While he is relaxed about the 4th holiday week loss, and gives the appearance of welcoming National’s tax cuts etc there is no reason to vote for him.

He can’t be Key light or he will float away.

Under Goff, Labour will get about 35% at most. National will get over 40%.

Unfortunately there is no alternative for Labour. None of the others will do well enough to overcome the negative from changing leaders. At this stage it looks ass though the best we can hope for is that they choose a replacement after the next election that knows what Labour is supposed to stand for and is not afraid to articulate it.
Tanz 23

31 July 2010 at 9:13 pm

The new boss is the same as the old boss, only far more fame-hungry and smug. I can’t stand the thought of nine odd years under a deaf John Key, and a posh one, so I”ll have to vote the other way. Labour should give the leadership to Cunliffe or keep it with Goff. I note that Goff never posts on Red Alert, does this speak volumes? It must be Trevor’s baby.
- swimmer 23.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 9:54 pm
  
  I’m guessing that he probably doesn’t have much time for that kind of thing.
  - Draco T Bastard 23.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 11:05 am
    
    I’m thinking a post by Goff on Red Alert every now and then would do wonders. Show that he’s moved on from his past mistakes in the 4th Labour government.
    - Armchair Critic 23.1.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 11:20 am
      
      He does need to post on RA, at least once a fortnight, but that is not enough.
      He, an Labour, need to get out into the public eye with coherent and consistent messages, presenting themselves as a viable alternative to National. How difficult could that be?
jbanks 24

31 July 2010 at 9:25 pm

“Labour can win the next election led by Phil Goff.”

Of course it’s logically possible. But anyone who’s honest with themselves knows that it’s not going to happen.

Pathetic.
- gobsmacked 24.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 12:26 am
  
  So you’re saying John Key is dishonest?
  
  If there’s no chance of him losing the election, why does he keep backing down on unpopular policies?
  
  Is it because he secretly hates mining? Does he have a crush on Lucy Lawless?
  
  Why is National so very afraid of losing votes, when (supposedly) the votes are already locked in, for an inevitable victory?
  
  Because it isn’t inevitable at all. They know it. So do you.
  - jbanks 24.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 9:20 am
    
    John Key is honest. People don’t like dishonest people. As the polls show, John Key is well liked.
    
    And backing down on policies is another honest trait people like. He actually listens to them. Unlike the Labour party who’s dishonest record will continue to follow them.
    
    It’s inevitable unless you’re a delusional labour supporter. Even Goff knows it.
    - swimmer 24.1.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 9:32 am
      
      Phil listens to the public and you know it. Phil is honest and you know it. All this scaremongering isn’t going to work on me.
      - WOOF 24.1.1.1.1
        
        1 August 2010 at 9:33 am
        
        RRRRRRRRRRRRRR
      - jbanks 24.1.1.1.2
        
        1 August 2010 at 1:03 pm
        
        Not true. That’s why we got rid of labour.
        Anyway, Phil could be honest as your mate Jesus but that doesn’t mean his party isn’t going to tax the crap out of us hard working Kiwi’s to support those who choose not to work.
    - Draco T Bastard 24.1.1.2
      
      1 August 2010 at 11:11 am
      
      John Key is honest. People don’t like dishonest people. As the polls show, John Key is well liked.
      
      What a load of codswallop. That isn’t logic – it’s wishful thinking. Jonkey has consistently been shown to be a liar both before the election and after. People liking him or not isn’t going to change that. What it does mean is that people choose not to believe that fact or haven’t seen the proof which is possible considering the abysmal state of the MSM.
      - jbanks 24.1.1.2.1
        
        1 August 2010 at 12:59 pm
        
        Why not just come & say that you think you’re smarter than the majority of voters? Sorry but being a unshaven professional student doesn’t make it so.
        
        People aren’t stupid. They seen labour ruin the economy and know that we need a business oriented Govt. to move us forward.
        
        Draco T Bastard 24.1.1.2.1.1
        
        1 August 2010 at 10:16 pm
        
        Your illogic goes like this:
        
        People don’t like dishonest people
        Jonkey is liked
        therefore Jonkey is honest
        
        That’s pure stupidity especially considering that Jonkey is a proven liar.
        
        People aren’t stupid, but a lot of them do happen to be ignorant and our MSM doesn’t help in that regard as it’s all turned into tabloid BS.
        
        jbanks …
        
        2 August 2010 at 9:24 am
        
        Listen to your arrogant tripe.
        
        People know what John Key has been up to. They just happen to be employed so are able to comprehend that there is no malice whatsoever.
        
        Your illogic goes like this:
        
        my student loan is more than a deposit to a house so I know it all
        people don’t agree with me
        therefore they’re all ignorant & being fooled by the evil media
        
        face it draco, your live in a dream world.
coolas 25

31 July 2010 at 9:56 pm

Great post Mike

Goff was impressive on the telly explaining why Carter had no place in Labour any longer. He’s articulate, balanced, reasonable.

When it comes to the TV debates for the election he should beat Key hands down.

What he seems to lack is the aggression, the fighter, ‘the mongrel’ as others put it, but that’s what I like about him.

I can’t understand why this decent man isn’t more popular.
- Rex Widerstrom 25.1
  
  31 July 2010 at 11:29 pm
  
  Has coolas answered his own question, I wonder? Is the cause of Phil Goff’s low popularity due to the perception he’s decent and thus lacking what Australians have taken to calling “ticker” (a mix of courage, energy and above all determination)?
  
  Graham above called him “my generation’s Bill Rowling” and that resonated with me. Perhaps “my generation’s (Jimmy) Carter” would be a more apt similie, as Rowling in person wasn’t all that inspiring, either, but seemed very much a decent person with reasonable ideas.
  
  Of course Rowling’s low-key, fundamentally decent approach was up against Muldoon and in that situation it’s understandable that people felt a tougher figure was needed.
  
  But that argument could equally be used when the opponent is a Telfon coated smile-and-wave politician who tends to avoid the hard questions.
  
  Trying to recast someone who’s been in politics as long as Goff seems doomed to fail. If the “decent” approach isn’t gaining traction – and it appears it isn’t – then Labour needs someone who can take the battle to NACT. But not with the sort of underlying nastiness displayed by Clark in her last term but rather a good natured approach that mocks and satirises Key’s inaction on so many fronts, and the failings of his Ministers. It needs another David Lange.
  
  Trouble is, I can’t see anyone on the front bench who even comes close to having those qualities… though Trevor with the edges smoothed off might manage it. I just don’t think he’s amenable to that much smoothing 😀
  - gobsmacked 25.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 12:37 am
    
    Bill Rowling got more votes than Helen Clark. That’ll do nicely.
    - loota 25.1.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 12:42 am
      
      Kris Allen, winner of American Idol 2009, got more votes than John Key.
      
      Next.
      - gobsmacked 25.1.1.1.1
        
        1 August 2010 at 12:50 am
        
        Is American Idol an MMP election?
        
        Labour got more “party” votes than National twice, under Rowling. Ergo, the notion that Rowling/Goff can’t win votes, and therefore elections, is false.
        
        Oh, and Jimmy Carter won too.
        
        Rex Widerstrom 25.1.1.1.1.1
        
        1 August 2010 at 1:24 am
        
        I should perhaps clarify I’m not being critical of Rowling (somewhere in a long-lost sock drawer is a red and white “I’m backing Bill” lapel badge, worn as a very callow youth indeed) though his vote count had more to do with sentiment surrounding Kirk than his own qualities, I’d suggest. It was certainly the sense of loss left by Kirk’s death which led me, as unsophisticated as I was at the time, to barrack for his successor.
        
        Similarly with Carter, though I’d argue he has achieved much more of worth in his post-Presidential career than he did during his term of office (and more than any former President save, perhaps, Clinton… though the latter still has a way to go).
        
        I should also clarify I’m not being particularly critical of Goff. He’s never been inspiring but he’s always appeared competent, highly intelligent, fundamentally honest and an effective leader of people: all qualities you’d want in a PM.
        
        I’m speaking above entirely in terms of perception. But perception counts for a lot, espeially amongst undecided voters – many of whom don’t want to “waste” their vote on a party or candidate they are convinced will lose.
        
        In Labour’s case, that would translate as a growth in support for the Greens, on the basis that if you’re going to cast a vote you suspect won’t change the government, you’re freer to vote with your heart.
        
        And in any case, at the hub of this debate is not so much how many votes Goff can win against Key… it’s whether someone else as Leader could win more, on the basis that those additional votes may make the difference, though equally they may end up not being needed.
  - swimmer 25.1.2
    
    1 August 2010 at 4:56 am
    
    Who says that he can’t win? Leaders come in all kinds of personalities and I want to see what happens. If you believe that Goff does have all the qualities that you could want in a Prime Minister then why don’t you support him instead of feeding into this incorrect perception of him as not having what it takes to win?
    - Rex Widerstrom 25.1.2.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 12:21 pm
      
      I’m commenting on perceptions and strategy on a political blog, swimmer. I’ve said nothing anywhere else – you seem to have me confused with actual members of the Labour Party.
      
      If he cannot generate a widespread perception that he has what it takes to win, then in fact he doesn’t have what it takes to win, no matter how much one might wish it to be otherwise.
      
      Personally I haven’t written him off. The dramatic reversal of Julia Gillard’s fortunes in the space of a week prove the old maxim about it being a long time in politics.
Bill 26

1 August 2010 at 1:27 am

“Labour can win the next election led by Phil Goff.” Em, nope.

“The objective conditions make it possible, and there is enough time.” Dismissing the first section of the sentence which is complete gobbeldy gook…eternity couldn’t give enough time.

Point goes something like this….

Key is a non imaginative front for a neo – liberal agenda.

Goff is merely a wanna be neo liberal power broker for that same agenda.

We want nether, but have no choice within the parameters of our representative parliamentary political system beyond the devil we know…So were fucked. End.
- Outofbed 26.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 8:45 am
  
  exactly
- Draco T Bastard 26.2
  
  1 August 2010 at 11:29 am
  
  Definitely need a socio-political system that moves away from the failure and dictatorship of capitalism. Not many people advocating that though.
  
  I’m wondering if people, who are acculturated to one system, can comprehend another. Peoples psyche is attuned to the system that they grew up in and you would have to change that entire culture in such a way that the entirety of society moved to the new paradigm.
  
  It is a most perplexing problem.
  - pollywog 26.2.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 11:44 am
    
    yup…2 more generations and we should have bred it into the white majority, in effect Polynized them, and be looking at, once again, adopting a traditional Pasifikan anarcho-syndicalist , for lack of a better word, collective approach….
    
    …minus the cannibalism of course, but if we only eat the rich then, whatever
    - Bill 26.2.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 1:03 pm
      
      Meanwhile, all the same old, same old reasonably well off and resourced whitey organisations are building coalitions to tell Johnny Boy that they don’t like some employment law changes.
      
      Kind of ironic that Polynesian and Maori communities, in common with the poor of whatever culture or community will at best, have a minor say in their coalition proceedings.
      
      Who said the terrible top/down command and control dictatorships that the left spawned a hundred years ago were dead and buried? The legacy just goes on and on…
Ms M 27

1 August 2010 at 3:08 am

Am glad of Carter’s leadership heads up, single-handedly his actions not only raised the profile, but put in the consciousness of the sound bite masses that the coup for the Labour leadership that that nice man Mr Key has said would happen, has happened, and as per other things that nice man Mr Key talks up, it didn’t come to much. End of.

Key’s, and in turn National’s, hollow house of cards will fall soon enough.
Outofbed 28

1 August 2010 at 8:48 am

Key is a non imaginative front for a neo liberal agenda.

Goff is merely a wanna be neo liberal power broker for that same agenda.

So fucking right and that is why even though Labour is my natural home I give my energies to the Greens
jaymam 29

1 August 2010 at 8:51 am

Phil Goff is doing a good job. I think there is an organised campaign for people to keep complaining about Phil, in the belief that if a lie is repeated enough it will be believed by the politically inept.

Didn’t Helen Clark poll at about 6% a year or two before she successfully became PM for nine years?
- lprent 29.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 9:32 am
  
  Yes she did and the mutterings in the party were quite a lot louder than they have ever been for Goff.
  
  (great – a topic we can agree on…)
nilats 30

1 August 2010 at 8:54 am

More chance of the Wallabies winning the Bledesloe Cup than Labour winning under Goff (or his replacement).
Key relates to voters much more than Goff, despite his wealth, so if Goff brings this up people will know it is false.
- Draco T Bastard 30.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 11:31 am
  
  No, really, he doesn’t. Most people aren’t liars and Jonkey is. Can’t really get any more disassociation than that.
tea 31

1 August 2010 at 9:35 am

Labour should pull out its values and go to bat for them. It’s time to get on the front foot, speak to what we in Labour all believe, and say what Labour will do to address the issues that matter to New Zealanders.

This.

The opposition is not Goff, but the whole left wing polity and their response to this reactionary and rather gormless government. The Greens under Norman are a waste of time. Labour has to get it’s shit together and put out the alternative view of New Zealand values- one with community education, Early Childhood education, job security etc etc…
- Outofbed 31.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 11:26 am
  
  Since when have the Greens been under Norman?
  As if one person can change the kaupapa of the party
  - ZB 31.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 12:48 pm
    
    All Labour voters have to do is vote Labour and give their party vote to Greens. The left will win hands down. Goff will win without even getting out of bed. Its fairs fair since most Green voters give Labour the constituency seat, or so the media say, since ‘Greens’ are a leftwing party.
    - swimmer 31.1.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 5:03 pm
      
      Not all of it or Labour could be out on their ear 😉
- just saying 31.2
  
  1 August 2010 at 1:23 pm
  
  At last – you’ll be able to tell me –
  
  What DOES Labour believe in?
tea 32

1 August 2010 at 9:36 am

Time for a barbie at phills? Maybe it should be a potluck, the weather isn’t that great today…
cough cough 33

1 August 2010 at 10:39 am

Face facts Labour peeps, Labour will not win the next election. With or without Phil Labour are doomed to another term in opposition.
- lprent 33.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 10:54 am
  
  Another simple-minded assertion without any argument or point that you can argue. Did you read the post? Do you have any informed opinion on it?
  
  Basically you sound like a dork who has virtually no awareness of how politics operates. Mike Smith on the other hand has a vast experience.
  
  Why exactly do you think you should be listened to? You sound kind of pathetic.
  - cough cough 33.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 7:00 pm
    
    1) The Polls (see below)
    2) The horde of geriatric deadwood on the Labour benches
    3) The delusional Labour strategists and pundits
    
    Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
    
    Poll Method: Random Phone
    
    Poll Size: 1,009 adults, 843 of whom had a party vote preference
    
    Dates: 22 to 26 May 2010
    
    Client: One News
    
    Report: TVNZ
    
    Party Support
    
    National 49.0% (-5.0%)
    Labour 33.0% (nc)
    Green 7.0% (+2.3%)
    ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
    Maori 3.6% (+1.5%)
    United Future 0.5% (+0.3%)
    Progressive 0.5% (+0.3%)
    NZ First 1.3% (-0.4%)
    Projected Seats
    
    National 62
    Labour 41
    Green 9
    ACT 3
    Maori 5
    United Future 1
    Progressive 0
    NZ First 0
    Total 121
Santi 34

1 August 2010 at 10:54 am

Labour can win led by Phil Goff.

That is the best humourous line I’ve heard this year! What did the author smoke?
- lprent 34.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 10:57 am
  
  Umm I’ll repeat my last comment to cough cough…
  
  Another simple-minded assertion without any argument or point that you can argue. Did you read the post? Do you have any informed opinion on it?
  
  Basically you sound like a dork who has virtually no awareness of how politics operates. Mike Smith on the other hand has a vast experience.
  
  Why exactly do you think you should be listened to? You sound kind of pathetic.
  
  If you guys don’t lift your comment level, I think I’ll start doing some troll removal – comments like this are simply boringly stupid.
  
  [lprent: Ok – there is too much of this mindless crap going on. Adding santi and cough cough to moderation until I see them lift their comment level. ]
- bbfloyd 34.2
  
  1 August 2010 at 3:41 pm
  
  santi… you have a strange sense of humour….. or is it an affliction.. ? hard to tell the difference
Anthony C 35

1 August 2010 at 11:33 am

Still the hard thing for Goff is that National’s spin doctors targeted him almost immediately and got the media in tow who decided on their narrative of Goff being a caretaker, now they seem inclined in sticking to that story to see how it plays out.

With the hit-and-run sound-bite strategy that National run, I can see why Phil Goff can’t get any traction in the media so to a degree connecting with people this way is going to be a hard ask. We’ve seen the face of it though the GST rise where even if Goff destroyed John Key in the house it would be reduced to about 3 second of Goff then John Key pulling out a “why did you do it then?”.

Probably the one of the best chances for Labour is non mainstream media strategies like word of mouth at ground level, petitioning outside supermarkets where people have just seen their paycheck disappear on necessities and connecting the kind of simmering discontent and hardship to National’s policies because things are getting tough for people, 1990’s tough.
- marsman 35.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 12:34 pm
  
  Also? –Letters to the editors of our major right-wing loving tabloids pointing out Nact’s ineptitude and mismanagement of the economy. Keep those cards and letters rolling in folks. Inundate the letters columns.
  - ZB 35.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 12:53 pm
    
    Cut welfare, or raise GST, raise ACC, all hurt many business right immediately in the pocket. Exporters might not notice the starving inlaws turning up for a handout, asking for a room since they foreclosed, but your business people know their customers are hurting, they feel their pain immediate in dollar terms in the till. So whose voting National? I mean it, small business, nope, workers nope, single mums nope, exporters who have no relatives, maybe. But even your exporter hates National who keep the dollar high to save under water foreign investors. Anyone with savings ready to leap on some cheap assets as foreigner have to recoup loses is seething at National right now, the once in a hundred year depression is a chance to make back the gains for a the last thirty years of neo-stupid. Thanks for nothing National.
- bbfloyd 35.2
  
  1 August 2010 at 3:55 pm
  
  anthony.. i tend to agree with your post. just a thought though. would i be drawing a long bow in pointing out the parallels between our fourth column and the propaganda ministry that existed under the nazi regime in prewar germany.?
  the only point of difference i can make out is that our so called news media are motivated by money and fame rather than self preservation.
- swimmer 35.3
  
  1 August 2010 at 4:55 pm
  
  Anthony C, you speak sense, I too noticed it straight away in the media – it’s up to the left not to make it a self fufilling prophecy.
sean14 36

1 August 2010 at 1:26 pm

New Zealanders are today confronting prices rising faster than wages, and a Government that has no idea how to create the jobs and future we need. That’s got to be Labour’s priority and focus.

Committing to axe a tax he wouldn’t commit to axing might be a good start.
MrSmith 37

1 August 2010 at 2:08 pm

With a little help from the Greens and the Maori’s, Labour could sneak home with Goff , but he should be rebuilding those relationships quietly now, not after the election.
Dean Reynolds 38

1 August 2010 at 3:22 pm

In 1975, Labour under Rowling was routed by Muldoon who was a media darling, just like John Key. In just 3 years, Labour turned everything around and in 1978 won more party votes than National. Under MMP, Muldoon would have been a one term PM.

From now to the next election will be very tough for National – their chickens are coming home to roost and they haven’t got a ghost of a plan on how to improve the economy or lift the living standard of the majority of voters.
Billy 39

1 August 2010 at 3:46 pm

this is simple really,

no he can’t win.
Cookie 40

1 August 2010 at 4:07 pm

I believe Goff can win. Its time now to pull out the big guns!!! There needs to be stronger policies in place. Objections against the smiling assassin – slippery politics must be heard louder in the media- not just on the Labour website.
bbfloyd 41

1 August 2010 at 4:15 pm

now your just being a silly billy.. the key word in your post is ….simple..
Billy 42

1 August 2010 at 4:16 pm

🙂 have to keep things simple for this place mate
- bbfloyd 42.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 4:39 pm
  
  billy…excuses excuses. that line says more about your own mindset than anything else
Doug 43

1 August 2010 at 4:45 pm

Labour supporters if you want to make some money this is a good idea.

Senior figures from the Australian Labor party have placed significant bets on the outcome of the federal election, with some punting against their own party.
- bbfloyd 43.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 4:55 pm
  
  doug..do you get your information from the same place johnkey does? if so, it might be an idea to take a deep breath before you let your slip show.
  - Doug 43.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 5:25 pm
    
    bbfloyd:
    Read this link then.
    
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/gillard-flags-ban-on-pretty-crook-political-betting-20100801-1112b.html
    - bbfloyd 43.1.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 6:31 pm
      
      doug… so we are supposed to assume you have a point to make, as opposed to the usual meaningless smartarsed drivel that seems to characterise pretty much every comment i have seen coming from you?
      go on, try it,, it won’t hurt… really… just make a valid point. it’s not as scary as you’ve been told it would be.
      - bbfloyd 43.1.1.1.1
        
        1 August 2010 at 6:41 pm
        
        doug..of course, the assumption is that this is an accurate article… no chance whatsoever that there may be any deliberate attempt to mislead. noooo of course not. so can you point to any articles that show how many liberal party officials may have bet on the election? seeing as most aussies i knew when i lived there loved a bet, i wouldn’t be surprised if there were a pile of them laying down their money too.
        and why not? not bad odds from what i’ve seen so far. i thought you guys were supporters of profitable endeavour.
        
        bbfloyd 43.1.1.1.1.1
        
        1 August 2010 at 6:48 pm
        
        just read the article again, and it seems there are people from both sides of the divide placing bets. did you actually read the article all the way through doug? i repeat, aussies will bet on flies crawling up a wall. this is run of the mill stuff
        
        Lew 43.1.1.1.1.2
        
        2 August 2010 at 10:07 pm
        
        It’s true alright. Chap from iPredict was on the wireless this afternoon saying it’s basically a risk-mitigation scheme for electorate finances: if they win the election, they win the election (and lose some money); if they lose the election they at least walk away with enough cash to fight a decent battle next time around. Sensible strategy if you know the odds and have a mandate to dispose of the money.
        
        L
Tom 44

1 August 2010 at 5:36 pm

Labour had 9 years to fix the Neo-lib FU and did not!
They continued with the ruinous to NZ exporting businesses, and windfall profits to the money go around merchants, reserve bank act, to name only one thing. The 1984 Globalization and feed the money to offshore agenda continued.
Many of us feel the choice is NACT light or Labour lite. Neo-lib with or without an outward veneer of welfarism.
Labour need to decide, and make it clear, if they stand for big business like NACT or the rest of us including small business, wage earners and disadvantaged.
coolas 45

1 August 2010 at 5:38 pm

With the capcha DIVISION I can’t resist posting again

‘United we stand, divided we fall,’ seems an appropriate slogan for all on the Left right now.

If Labour can consolidate around Goff without a hint of division it’s a strong message to the electorate, especially as National and Act will start shitting themselves if the polls continue swinging away from them, and the inherent nastiness of many of their members will start to show.
- swimmer 45.1
  
  1 August 2010 at 6:13 pm
  
  Absolutely that is what we must do 🙂
  - Jenny 45.1.1
    
    1 August 2010 at 9:29 pm
    
    I would like to add to Coolas and Swimmer’s comments:
    
    Coolas:
    
    â€˜United we stand, divided we fall,’ seems an appropriate slogan for all on the Left right now.
    
    Swimmer:
    
    Absolutely that is what we must do
    
    The Labour Party and Phil Goff now have a God given chance to put the above sentiments into practice
    
    The Council of Trade Unions has announced that it will be holding Fairness at Work rallies on 21st August in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin.
    
    Wouldn’t it be great if Phil Goff joined the union leaders on the podium to denounce the government’s attacks on working people and their unions?
    
    Wouldn’t it lift Labour’s profile, if the party, in the spirit of Coolas call for the left to stand together, called on their membership to fully support these rallies in their centre. and Labour Party banners flags and posters were a dominant TV image at these rallies.
    
    Wouldn’t Labour gain the respect and support of working people if they made such a stand?
    
    Clik on the link to the CTU official announcement:
    
    Fairness at Work Rallies called
    - Outofbed 45.1.1.1
      
      1 August 2010 at 11:51 pm
      
      The Greens will be there
Lats 46

2 August 2010 at 10:10 am

As I’ve stated elsewhere, as much as I hope it does happen, I’m not convinced Labour can win under Goff. However I do suspect it is too close to the election to start fiddling around with the leadership. So other posters above are right, it is time for Phil to step up and start being counted. Start confronting the real issues in this country, the rising cost of living, stalled wages, the economy, health care, law and order, education, energy, and the environment. Too often lately real policy has been neglected by the media in favour of sensational headlines. It’s time the left took the media to task, and actually started focussing on the needs of ordinary New Zealanders. I don’t give a damn about “Party Central”, I care more about the future of this country. It is time we started looking at the underlying causes of some of the issues in this country, and as unpopular as some of the solutions might be, we need someone with the will to make real and effective change for good, and damn the poll results.

As an aside, one spanner which may be thrown in the works next year is Winston Peters. He is unpredictable, but a real political animal. As much as I dislike his brand of politics, he is inarguably a political force in this country, and it may well be that NZ First is again thrust into the role of kingmaker if he decides to throw his hat in the ring once more.
Andrew 47

2 August 2010 at 2:54 pm

If I was Goff, I would lay out a CENTRIST plan, focusing on National’s weakpoints and nuetralising their strongpoints. Goff isn’t going to win on personality so he has to win on a credible plan.
To do this, Goff needs to tell the lefties and unionists in Labour to shut up. Its Goff’s election, why is he not given free reign to try to win it, why is he hamfisted by the left of his party? Clark had free reign why not he?
If I was Goff, I would tell Labour that I am doing it my way and if my way isn’t accepted then I would RESIGN to the backbench then take retirement at the election. Leave the lefties to preside over a disaster.
Goff’s own credibility is on the line here. Why would he want to be compromised by his own party.
I actually feel sorry for the guy, he inherited a right mess. Laughably, Carter tried to sell it as a close loss …funny thing is National have way more electorate seats so on FPP terms it was a hiding and on MMP terms Nat/Act could govern alone, so how that is close is beyond me. Then you add Labour’s struggles with the Maori Party and the centre-right is a mile ahead on MMP terms.
If Goff goes back to the centre-left, Winston will come in an Labour will be hammered.
Your defence of Carter, shows your bias, Carter is a joke, committed treason, repeated it. He needs to be expelled forthwith. A pathetic spend up public money large kind of guy.
Overall your post is very hopeful and full of political unrealities.
Unfortanately, Goff doesn’t have the guts or support to offer his own mandate.
- Jenny 47.1
  
  2 August 2010 at 4:32 pm
  
  The right says Goff should tell the left to shut up. The left say Goff should speak up.
  
  Who is right?
  
  Here is the latest update on Fairness At Work rallies, from the EPMU, the union headed by Andrew Little.
  
  EPMU News
  
  Decision time is here.
  
  .
  - SHG 47.1.1
    
    2 August 2010 at 5:36 pm
    
    In the past couple of days it looks like the left has said to Goff “sit down and shut up, you no longer speak for the party”.
  - Anne 47.1.2
    
    2 August 2010 at 8:57 pm
    
    “The right says Goff should tell the left to shut up. The left say Goff should speak up.
    
    Who is right?”
    
    We know know who is right and it isn’t the right!
    
    Fairness At Work rallies.
    Will someone tell Labour to publicly support the rallies and use their communication channels to get as many of their members to attend. A public display of co-operation between the Greens, Labour and the industrial movement is exactly what is needed ‘right’ now.
Jenny 48

2 August 2010 at 4:37 pm

Which side are you on?

Which side are you on?

One’s right and one’s wrong

United we’re strong

Which side are you on?

(from an old union song)
- The Voice of Reason 48.1
  
  2 August 2010 at 4:57 pm
  
  Cheers, Jenny. It’s a question that never goes away, eh?
  
  Billy Bragg vid here: