Latest poll results – National in freefall

Written By: - Date published: 11:11 am, November 9th, 2018 - 81 comments
Categories: labour, national, Politics - Tags:

More bad news for National.

Their support is in free fall according to the latest UMR poll, the details of which have been leaked to Duncan Garner at the AM show.

From Newshub:

There’s more bad news for National with new polling data showing public support continues to fall.

The AM Show host Duncan Garner says he was given access to the Government’s internal polling data this week, which shows Labour at 46 percent and National at 37 percent.

This is a fall of six percent compared to the last 1NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, released two weeks ago, which showed National on 43 percent and Labour on 45 percent.

Appearing on the show on Friday, National MP Judith Collins says there have been ongoing difficulties for National.

“If you stretch it out it’s obviously been going along for a little while, and we’ve also had leaks going on this year and now strangely enough the leaks have absolutely stopped,” she told Garner.

“I know we’ve gone through some pretty difficult times in the last few weeks or months and I’m sure we’re very focused on doing our job. Which is better than Iain Lees-Galloway.”

No wonder National has been so insipid in the house lately. It is the dejection in all of those list MPs seeing their careers being terminated at the next election if this continues.

I bet for them the end of the year cannot come quickly enough.

81 comments on “Latest poll results – National in freefall ”

  1. JC 1

    Grand Mickey, recall hearing Mike Williams saying something like that % would equate to 11, or was it 16? list MPs . 🙂

  2. ianmac 2

    How sad. And sadly it will be a lot harder for retiring MPs to be given cushy jobs when they “retire.”
    Amazing that those die-hard National supporters who believe in the Party, regardless of the evidence, would now start sagging.

  3. ianmac 3

    Total 83%. That leaves just 13% for the others.

    • Dennis Frank 3.1

      Understandable, I didn’t like maths either. Actually 17% for the others! 😎

      • ianmac 3.1.1

        Oops slip of the finger. 17% looks good for Green and NZF.

        • Bearded Git

          Greens 11 NZF 5 and Odds and Sods 1?

          • cleangreen

            NZF 9, greens, 7, odds 1.

            Greens are not very popular recently since voting for dropping 1080 toxin pellets, all they can claim is voting TPP out.

            • Bearded Git

              You are picking one policy there, and many Greens support this because it seems to be the only tool to save the birds. Real Green voters have nowhere else to go. (Not voting is a cop out)

              Personally I think it is a failed strategy and the government should be spending massively on creating huge predator free areas.

            • Incognito

              The MSM don’t seem to give the Greens much oxygen. Certainly over the last few weeks the focus has been on the usual suspects National, Labour, NZF, and that minute minion Seymour and hardly anything of substance about or from the Greens.

  4. Stuart Munro 4

    I wonder how they will resolve the conflict between those who paid for their list positions, and those who hold them by other means. I can’t help thinking of musical chairs.

  5. Tiger Mountain 5

    couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch…though critics will say it is a skewed internal poll, but it is still indicative, commercial pollsters like Roy Morgan seem to have been missing in action for months, and the Colmar Brunton is traditionally a Nat friendly poll, so the blue team have good reason to be blue

  6. McFlock 6

    A great opportunity for an itinerant knife sharpener to set up shop in the nat caucus room.

    Especially now Lusk’s services are poison.

  7. Ad 7

    I heard these numbers at conference chatter.

    The question is really whether this government will spend this accumulation of political capital
    on country-altering stuff, or squander it like Key.

    Go big team.

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 7.1

      “The question is really whether this government will spend this accumulation of political capital on country-altering stuff, or squander it like Key.”

      With you 100% on that comment!

  8. Whacked 8

    The trick for the left is to keep Simon standing for as long as possible and not looking dead in the water. But in reality he won’t be leader when parliament resumes next year. Then Judith won’t be able to help herself but play right into the governments hands by leading the Nats for a while. She will lead with her chin – so to speak.

    I suspect the Immigration NZ fiefdom after 9 years of politicisation are in for a bit of scrutiny – and not before time. Thank you ILG and the Czech inmate. Low unemployment and skill shortage might force a more ‘Kiwi’ approach to immigration.

  9. That very funny graphic sums it up. So pleased they are going down deep.

  10. ankerawshark 10

    yah…………………..about time

    anyone know when the Reid research is out?

  11. AB 11

    Gives some context to the frenzied and overblown attack on IL-G.

    • Bill 11.1

      Best not go through the Newshub link provided in the post if that’s your angle.

      • AB 11.1.1

        It’s not an angle, more an observation of an unremarkable fact – when someone is in a corner they are less careful about not crying wolf.

        • Bill

          Uh-huh. No problem with that as general observation. You obviously didn’t click through the link to the videoed interview though, or you wouldn’t be applying that observation to the IL-G fiasco.

  12. SaveNZ 12

    Being caught selling list MP spots for donations and based on race, will do that to you.

    Saying that Labour went down to 22? then won the election so I would not be celebrating Natz eminent demise but more the new government thinking how they can be the best government they can, which is not by scoring political points and dong neoliberal business as usual with a few lollies thrown out 6 months before the election. Cos, that tends to make people not vote, and when people don’t vote, Natz get in and Greens and NZ First are in quite a precarious position if people just give up on them.

    • Enough is Enough 12.1

      He only ever sees this as a sport, something to win and gloat about.

      We rarely, if ever, see anything remotely close to a critique of the government or analysis on how this country could be improved.

  13. Phil 13

    … given access to the Government’s internal polling data…

    It wasn’t that long ago Andy put out some UMR internal polling and pretty quickly looked like a chump.

    Jus’ sayin’.

  14. Enough is Enough 14

    “I bet for them the end of the year cannot come quickly enough.”

    Considering the news cycle over the past two weeks has been almost solely on a silly immigration decision, and whether the Minister should be sacked a result of that decision, and the way he has arrogantly dealt with the avalanche of public, media and opposition outrage, I would actually think it would be the Government who will be looking forward to the upcoming break.

  15. ianmac 15

    The Nats are not stupid so expect a major shift in strategy. Which is fine as long as it doesn’t hurt the government.

    • cleangreen 15.1

      Natz need to show skin in the game seriously to embrace rail freight over just ‘more roading for trucks’ as Steven joyce’ “the tarmac man” set national up as; – for christ sake and our planet’s future.

      ‘National needs to wake up as we go through the next two years’ as the global move to a “low carbon economy’ will need to shift to clean freight movement with a low carbon footprint and less damage to our land and water quality.

      Export foods will be traced for the transportation of their products and road freight will become a thing of the past within 20 yrs.
      “The Food Miles and CO2 Emissions of America’s Favorite Foods

      What are food miles, and why are they important? Food miles refer to the distance that food travels to get to a consumer, and they’re an indication of the resulting emissions that can affect the environment.

      Why are food miles bad? – Transporting produce thousands of miles via truck, rail, ship and especially air will result in more emissions.”

  16. Observer Tokoroa 16

    Innocent Judith

    I am just wondering whether Judith Collins will be flying out to Beijing soon – to assist the all powerful China Communist Party who may have recently lost some seats in the NZ National Party Caucus.

    Will she take her beloved Taser Gun, and her dear friend Cam Slater ?

    I doubt she will take Simon Bridges with her. But you just never know with Judith and Simon.

  17. Observer Tokoroa 18

    Cool PR – Cool As

  18. cleangreen 19

    What a beautiful sight when all the wheels fall off the ‘national bus’ as they should when it continues to fall off that cliff.

    I cant wait for Jacinda’s policy of “a kinder gentler, caring, inclussive Government appears next year finally; ” Lets do this.” Give gisborne back a rail service Jacinda firstly is our xmas wish.

    A wise man did also say “Slowly slowly chatchee monkey” is the best policy.

    “Softly, softly, catchee monkey proverbial saying, early 20th century, advocating caution or guile as the best way to achieve an end.”

    Cite this article


  19. JustMe 20

    The problem for National is it suffers from a huge dollop of hypocrisy.

    Recently the National MPs have been demanding that Iain Lees-Galloway resign because he didn’t read the full report of a violent Czech that became a NZ citizen.

    May I ask as to how many violent ‘Instant Kiwis’ did the previous National government allow to become NZ citizens perhaps because they(the Instant Kiwis) had enough money to donate to the NZ National Party????!!!! In fact one “Instant Kiwi” was charged for beating up his wife. That individual gained NZ citizenship that was unquestioned by National whilst it was in government. It’s likely that individual donated heavily to the NZ National Party as it appears to be a Party that favours the rich more-so than the poor.

    The NZ National Party give more of their attention time to the rich and less time to the poor.

    How many poor wannabe NZers did the previous National government have refused NZ citizenship to because they could not do what the rich could do i.e donate to the NZ National Party???!!!!

    John Key often used his pet words of “I am comfortable with this, that or the other of the actions of my MP…” I am sure many NZers are comfortable with the fact the NZ National Party have fallen off the cliff due to their perpetual arrogance and failure to admit they make and have made mistakes and hence the fact National just are not what NZers want as a political party.

    The NZ National Party come across as a bunch of self serving, hypocritical MPs who would ever attack one of their own because he questioned them.

    Be assured I am Labour Party as a supporter but right now and after the attack dog attitude of the National Party MPs towards Jami-Lee Ross I now respect and admire him. JLR has more of my respect than Simon Bridges, Paula Bennett, Judith Collins etc can ever expect.

    • cleangreen 20.1

      Hi “JustMe.

      A lot of what you say I agree with there as our family is a died in the wool Labour backer too.

      Only the bit about ‘ Iain Lees Galloway’ am I differing with you on the issue of his “effectiveness”- as we actually have a large bone to pick about him as one of Labour Party ‘poster boys’.

      Galloway is a disaster to our Party as a “symbol of our leader’s pledged policies’ enshrined in Jacinda’s first election speech in the Auckland town Hall when jacinda said;

      “we will bring a “Kinder, caring, warm, inclusive, transparent Government that will listen to all people and give all a voice to be heard”

      Iain Lees Galloway has dug his feet in about the ‘czech-gate’ has demonstrated time end time again that he is only a hard faced brutal arrogant beaurocrat and is damaging those pledges made by jacinda to make us more able to be given respect and balance for our feelings of fairness transparency given us too with inclusion but Galloway has blocked release of the whole file so we could see it.

      Iain Less Galloway is protecting something here!!!!

      This is hurting Labour, and our leader with her intentions for a “Kinder, caring, warm, inclusive, transparent Government that will listen to all people and give all a voice to be heard” so sadly we will suffer in time we feel as it leaves a sour taste now as we were not given transeracy or inclusion.

      I feel let down and hurt here.

    • Bearded Git 20.2

      The first thing ILG would have read would have been the summary of the case supplied by his officials at the front of the file-this would have taken 10-15 minutes. So an hour is quite a long time.

      What minister reads whole files? This is a media beat up.

      • cleangreen 20.2.1

        Beaded git,

        Yes the Immigration official ILG was using for advise was “general Manager of NZ Immigration his name is Steven Dunston and he was roundly interviewed on an interview on the weekend on RNZ and he was asked repeatedly if he advised the Minister of what was the best action to take but Dunston said no as they cannot provide any political advice only facts.

        So dunston’s “summary was inconclusive and Galloway should have gone deeper before making what we consider being a ‘hasty decision.’

        Galloway has made a total screw up here!!! – and should loose his portfolio!

        Just as we even saw happen to our favorite minister Phil Twyford was punished loosing the ‘air transport’ portfolio.

        We are labour supporters here but the conduct of our MP’s rules must be kept here.

        • Bearded Git

          Thanks for that CG-didn’t hear the RNZ interview. Does change the facts.

          Still, surely a minister is allowed an error with one case. It’s not like he threw the file in the bin and did the crossword instead (channeling Steve Braunias here…). He made a bad call.

          And the Nats are hardly in a position to criticise.

          • cleangreen

            Thanks again Breaded Git,

            Now try this one here as Labour (my Party) claims to be a human rights advocate it seems strange that they are o/k with Iain Lees galloway alloowing that NZ Immigration is “exempt from any human rights legislation too apparently”!!!!!!!

            NZ Human Rights is shockingly not legally bound to recognise legally any ‘human rights’ of any person who applies for anything, we found out last week from an immigration Lawyer!!!!!!!.

            My Son as a born NZ citizen was refused hisn human right to put in an application with the NZ Immigration department a few weeks ago.

            My Son advised me that two days ago asked for a review to have his application to allow his Germen Fiancee come from Germany for a short work visa while they await a permanent resident and get married but was told Immigration ‘does not recognise or is controlled by any ‘human rights provisions’

            My son then approached a legal consultant, ; – quote “An Immigration lawyer stated the NZ Human Rights do not apply to NZ Immigration”.

            So they confirmed they cannot intervene or consider even my son’s case to have his fiancee come in with a ‘temporary work visa’.

            Labour has a screwed up case with the drug dealer, Sroubek case but to refuse entry for a short term work visa for a member of a german born woman is also very suspect when he is still here after years?

            You cannot quote drug dealer, Sroubek should be given “human rights” when my son’s fiancee a legally bonafide citizen of Germany is not given “Human rights” to come here to get married and get a short term work visa!!!!! – where is the logic in that?

            Today on RNZ it was said; – In Parliament Galloway said he cannot speak about the Czech drug case as it may legally (quote) “damage his case and not be in the public interest”

            This is awful double standards here and just a bloody mess with no justice for human rights .

  20. Chris T 21

    “May I ask as to how many violent ‘Instant Kiwis’ did the previous National government allow to become NZ citizens perhaps because they(the Instant Kiwis) had enough money to donate to the NZ National Party????!!!!”

    Perhaps you can enlighten us, as just one keeps coming up who I have never heard of.

    • A 21.1

      Apparently there were over 100.

      I’d look up the actual figure (118 rapists/murderers comes to mind) but its Friday night so I’m off… 😀

  21. patricia bremner 22

    In my humble opinion, the middle are deserting National, because they are just beginning to look hard at some of the behaviour patterns now newly exposed.

    Many parents of family who are accessing education without debt, saving for the chance to win a ballot in Kiwibuild, finding improved income, finding employment, seeing investment in their locality, are comparing that with the previous 9 years. They see hope.

    Further the exposure of ugly plots to choose “so called representatives” has laid bare the utter disdain for the “Rule of law” National is showing. The scheming and use of attack parties to achieve their ends, although exposed by “Dirty Politics” is now understood to have infiltrated every aspect of their culture. JLR allowed us a window on their murky world.

    It really is as John Campbell showed, a case of follow the money. I would add, all Ministers need to remind employees of their Ministries they are first of all Public Servants and serve the public good.

    Hopefully the Government will be in power long enough to right the many wrongs in a way that the bulk of the country choose “Kindness” as their mantra.

    • cleangreen 22.1


      Yes to that also patricia as National have “embedded so many of there own supporters inside the “government bureaucratic beltway.” this will take at least two terms alone to rid their influence.

      • Kat 22.1.1

        What Jacinda Ardern is showing the voters is politics can be about more than scoring points and being in power just for being in powers sake. Her emphasis on kindness and bettering the country for all is getting traction. For National to compete with her they are going to have to radically change their core attitude, social policies, general modis operandi and find a leader who is at least Jacinda Arderns equal, and someone willing to operate in the National party. Best of luck to them with that challenge and if they are ever successful, who would argue.

        In the meantime the years of tears between Big Norm and Kind Jacinda are rapidly receding.

        • cleangreen

          Sadly though Kat,our family as “died in the wool labour voters” were astounded to find out last week that Jacinda’s own ‘NZ Immigration Department’ is “exempt” from considering any applications based on “human rights” at all – so this does not honestly show “kindness”.

          See my post here above on, on today 11/11/18.

          “NZ Human Rights is shockingly not legally bound to recognise legally any ‘human rights’ of any person who applies for anything, we found out last week from an immigration Lawyer!!!!!!!.

          My Son as a born NZ citizen was refused hisn human right to put in an application with the NZ Immigration department a few weeks ago.

          My Son advised me that two days ago asked for a review to have his application to allow his Germen Fiancee come from Germany for a short work visa while they await a permanent resident and get married but was told Immigration ‘does not recognise or is controlled by any ‘human rights provisions’

          My son then approached a legal consultant, ; – quote “An Immigration lawyer stated the NZ Human Rights do not apply to NZ Immigration”.

          So they confirmed they cannot intervene or consider even my son’s case to have his fiancee come in with a ‘temporary work visa’.

          Labour has a screwed up case with the drug dealer, Sroubek case but to refuse entry for a short term work visa for a member of a german born woman is also very suspect when he is still here after years?

          You cannot quote drug dealer, Sroubek should be given “human rights” when my son’s fiancee a legally bonafide citizen of Germany is not given “Human rights” to come here to get married and get a short term work visa!!!!! – where is the logic in that?”

  22. Tricledrown 23

    Nationals years of neglect of many areas of the economy, their Dirty tricks, and all their fans and cheer leader doom and gloom saying the economy is going down the gurgle are sounding hollow Ironically from the hollowing hollow men.

  23. Delia 24

    Quite happy with the way the country is going. So happy in fact I barely follow our politics, always a good sign.

  24. Jack Ramaka 25

    People in NZ definitely appear to be a bit more relaxed under Jacaranda & Winnie the Pooh, rather than the Stazi Type Regime we had going under Sir John Key, we just need to flush out his cronies & rats who have infested our Government Departments.

    These people are working against the current Government and the people of NZ and need to be removed.

    State servants such as judges, police, government officials etc are servants of the state and should be working in the best interests of the country and it’s citizens IMHO.

    • Antoine 25.1

      Personally I appreciate living in a country that has a largely non politicised public service and doesn’t run witch hunts to turf out anyone installed by the previous administration


      • Jack Ramaka 25.1.1

        Sure you are living in the same country as me called New Zealand, people like Mike Hoskins is non political and TVOne non political what shit are you smoking girl ?

        • Antoine

          TVNZ is not a Government department, Hosking is not a judge, a police officer or a government official.

          When you start firing media people because you disagree with their political views, you are going down a very slippery slope.

          Do you want to see left leaning journalists purged under a right wing Government?


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    The coalition Government has made the first steps in delivering on its promise to  extend free breast screening to women aged 70-74, Health Minister Shane Reti says. “As part of the 100 day plan, the Government has now met with officials and discussed what is needed in order for the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government announces woolshed roadshows in support of sheep farmers
    The Government celebrates National Lamb Day (15 February 24) and congratulates sheep farmers on the high-quality products they continue to produce. Agriculture Minister McClay hosted bipartisan celebrations of National Lamb Day with industry representatives at Parliament this week to mark the anniversary of the first frozen lamb exports that left ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Speech: Address to the NZ Economics Forum
    It’s great to be back at the New Zealand Economics Forum. I would like to acknowledge everyone here today for your expertise and contribution, especially the Pro Vice-Chancellor, Head of the Waikato Management School, economists, students and experts alike. A year has passed since I was last before you, and ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government tackling high construction costs
    The Government is focused on reducing sky-high construction costs to make it more affordable to build a home, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says.  Stats NZ data shows the cost of building a house has increased by 41 per cent since 2019, making housing even more unaffordable for Kiwi ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s Three Waters legislation repealed
    The Coalition Government’s legislative plan to address longstanding issues with local water infrastructure and service delivery took an important step today, with the repeal of Labour’s divisive and unpopular Three Waters legislation, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Repealing this legislation is a necessary first step in implementing our Local ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Cost of living support for beneficiary households
    The Coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to ease the cost-of-living by increasing main benefit rates in line with inflation and ensuring the Minimum Family Tax Credit threshold remains aligned with this change, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. The Social Security (Benefits Adjustment) and Income Tax ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government announces agriculture delegations to better support Primary sector
    The coalition Government has announced ministerial delegations to support key areas across the Primary sector to deliver for New Zealand’s food and fibre sector, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I will be supported in my roles as Minister of Agriculture, Trade, Forestry and Hunting and Fishing, by three Associate ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Waikato MoU reinforces Govt’s commitment to increase NZ doctors
    The Government has taken an important step forward in addressing a critical shortage of New Zealand-trained doctors, with today’s signing of a Memorandum of Understanding for a third medical school, Minister of Health Dr Shane Reti has announced.  “Today’s signing by the Ministry of Health and the University of Waikato ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Speech – Lunar New Year 2024
    Annyeonghaseyo, greetings and welcome all. It is my pleasure as the Minister for Ethnic Communities to welcome you to the first Lunar New Year Event in Parliament. Thank you to our emcees for greeting us in the different languages that represent the many cultures that celebrate the Lunar New Year. ...
    2 weeks ago

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