Latest Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 pm, October 13th, 2010 - 102 comments
Categories: Politics, polls - Tags: , ,

Nat 49.5%, Lab 36.5%, Gre 8%, NZF 2.5%, MAO 2.5% ACT 0.5%

Highest Labour vote since Helen Clark was PM. Lowest ACT vote in many many years. Key’s still holding the Nats up high.

102 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan poll”

  1. Hilary 1

    I was polled for this one.

  2. Translates as seats in the House as:

    National: 61
    Act: 1

    Labour: 45
    Greens: 10
    Maori Party: 5

    A 1 seat majority (once Speaker is appointed). NACT should be very worried. N.B. I have not included Dunne as he is unlikely to be reelected imho.

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Labour need just 3-4% more, and for the Greens to grow another 1-2% without canabalising Labour support.

      NAT’s deathgrip on power may very well be fallible in 2011. IF the national level Left get their shit together like the local Lefties have done.

    • Marty G 2.2

      speakers votes count now.

      • Marty G 2.2.1

        and when I say ‘now’ I mean since the introduction of MMP. It’s a common misconception that the speaker doesn’t vote, they don’t in other westminster systems.

        but remember that the number of seats a party has is determined by the share of the party vote, so there’s a good argument that a party shouldn’t lose a vote just because one of its members is speaker.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.2.1.1

          IMO, the speaker shouldn’t actually be an MP.

          • Lanthanide 2.2.1.1.1

            I agree. That way we could get someone more impartial and hopefully talented in the role. However I believe that there isn’t actually anything stopping the appointment of a non-MP speaker?

            • ianmac 2.2.1.1.1.1

              Lockwood is doing a good job. If he retires as an MP next year, perhaps he could stay on as Mr Speaker.

            • Andrew Geddis 2.2.1.1.1.2

              “However I believe that there isn’t actually anything stopping the appointment of a non-MP speaker?”

              Well – there is the small matter of the Constitution Act 1986, s.12 … “The House of Representatives shall, at its first meeting after any general election of its members, and immediately on its first meeting after any vacancy occurs in the office of Speaker, choose one of its members as its Speaker, and every such choice shall be effective on being confirmed by the Governor-General.”

              But I guess that could always be repealed, along with several hundred years of constitutional practice …

        • Policy Parrot 2.2.1.2

          Stand corrected.

    • Pascal's bookie 2.3

      Generous of you to give ACT Epsom there Parrot. 😉

      • lprent 2.3.1

        I thought he was being generous as well. I get the impression that you could put a national penguin up against Rodney in Epsom at present, and the penguin would win. If the national candidate was too bad, then they’d vote labour. The super shitty fiasco just pissed too many people off across the entire political spectrum.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.3.1.1

          ATM, I’m not sure if the penguin would win. He’d get more votes than Rodney but National can’t escape the fact that they did pass the legislation for the SuperCity and even the people in Epson don’t like how that was done.

          • lprent 2.3.1.1.1

            The parrot is correct. They would only vote in a labour mp if they were forced to. The overall occupational distribution there is unique in my experience and almost screams capitalist. There are some significiant areas in the electorate that are different however, and those are what the labour candidates work for party vote.

            For labour to win there you’d have to assume that they had a choice between Rodney and ummmm say mellissa lee or whale. This was how Rodney got in in the first place. He convinced the Epsom conservative voters that a vote for act would help their national cause, and that he’d be a better MP than worthless ( not hard ). Problem is that he hasn’t convinced them that the super-shitty was a good idea and they have become increasingly jaded on his antics for years.

            It is only faced with two unpalatable choices that you would get a low conservative turnout for electorate vote ( the party vote will remain the same ) or protest voting everyone from labour to bill and Ben.

            • Herodotus 2.3.1.1.1.1

              Did Nat almost lose Remerua from memory Doug Graham to Lab about 3/4 elections ago, less than 1000 vaotes seperated the 2 candidates I think there was a Tizzard involved for Lab?

      • Epsom is a blue-ribbon seat which generally know which side their bread is buttered, even if they can’t believe it’s butter. Labour has only came close to winning it during the ACT era (1987).

      • Interesting point – but it would make little difference in this result – Nats would pick up his seat if any other candidate within Parliament (excepting the Maori Party) won it.

        Captcha has a typo: “inchs”

        • Mac1 2.3.3.1

          ‘inchs’- plural of ‘inch’, anglicized Scots gaelic for small island, aye. Like the North Inch, off the coast of the South Island.

    • djp 2.4

      Why have the maoris suddenly switched sides?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 2.5

      The appointment of Speaker doesnt effect the votes for a party in the House under MMP.

      • Interesting 2.5.1

        So does the speaker still cast a vote for their party?

        • Ari 2.5.1.1

          I’m unsure on this, but I think the speaker’s vote is only lost on matters of conscience?

          And no, the PARTY casts the speaker’s vote for the party, based on how our rules work.

    • Interesting 2.6

      Parrot, assuming that Maori are going to go with Lab? interesting.

      Why not translate seats as:

      National: 61
      Act: 1
      Maori: 5

      Labour: 45
      Greens: 10

      • In the situation above, you are probably correct. The Maori Party will always want to maximise its influence. However, if it does hold the balance of power, it risks repeating the 1999 NZ First experience if it installs a National-led government. That is the reason why I grouped Maori Party with the left, to prove how close a balance of power situation actually is.

        The Maori Party’s influence lies in the electorate votes in receives, not the party vote. And a majority (not plurality) of Maori roll voters in both elections since the advent of the Maori Party have backed Labour with the party vote. Many voters see it as getting two for the price of one, Labour to look after them, and the Maori Party to keep Labour honest.

        So thereforth, if an electorate vote for the Maori Party is not seen as a proxy vote for Labour in the event of a hung parliament, those who split their vote will simply revert to voting for Labour electorate candidates and the Maori Party will be finished.

        In fact, there is some thought that merely not be in opposition to National will cost the Maori Party a seat or two, even though they have portrayed some successes as coming out of the agreement with National.

    • I think Dunne’s chances are better than Hide’s. I don’t think the voters will want to risk a three-way split awarding Chauvel the seat again.

  3. Herodotus 3

    The last election was handing the victor a hospital pass, wait until next year.
    Aussie banks shifting whatever capital they have in the Kiwi as quick as they can back over the ditch. It is almost becomming impossible to keep any funding line open, NZ will be exiting the capitalist world very soon (Balance of payments will look really good !!!! 🙁 ). It is hard to be a capitalist when there is no capital.
    Reduced govt tax take so how will the election promises be kept?
    The might Jafa city debt (incl CCOs hidden debt) mountain ever increasing with a rates base struggling to fund current levels let alone those promises that are to be kept.
    By chance we will be entering a Managed economy, without the skills to manage. Those in the public sector and many entertained from this site would not have the slightest idea of how the private sector is struggling.
    So to next years PM you will find out how Karl Donitz felt late in ’45.

    • burt 3.1

      National have plenty of experience in being handed basket case economies from Labour. When they took office they had a decade of deficits predicted…

      • KJT 3.1.1

        I was going to reply, but I then decided I would not dignify this rubbish with further response.

        • Draco T Bastard 3.1.1.1

          That’s about the best you can do with burt – anything else just gets you stressed from trying to deal with the stupid.

      • Macro 3.1.2

        Still rewriting history I see burt….
        You really do live in a world of your own making – it must be very pleasant for you.

        • felix 3.1.2.1

          That’s the weird bit – he doesn’t actually seem to enjoy it at all.

          Does anyone else read burt in the voice of A.A. Milne’s Eeyore?

          • freedom 3.1.2.1.1

            people often confuse Eeyore’s outlook as one borne of stupidity. Eyeore was quietly happy in his funks, and would regularly find joy in the simplest of melancholy days..
            Whereas Burt is a grumbling dissatisfied pedant with no ability to see beyond his own pocketbook. More suited to a stay at ToadHall than a holiday in Hundred Acre Wood

          • ianmac 3.1.2.1.2

            Eyeore was happy the day that he was given a broken balloon and an empty honey pot, and when he was given a new house. Now what would make Burt happy?

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.3

        Can’t have deficits if you don’t have a government which borrows to create its money supply, burt.

      • burt 3.1.4

        OK, are the three of you saying there wasn’t a decade of deficits predicted when National took office in 2008 – YES/NO ?

        • Colonial Viper 3.1.4.1

          Nothing wrong with judicious deficits. Bill and John agree since they are funding rich peoples’ tax cuts with them.

          Of course deficits would no longer exist if the Govt used its sovereign right to control and issue all the money in the land.

    • Armchair Critic 3.2

      This is probably how the government sees it:
      The CCOs that own significant assets must be put into debt if they are not already. They will see to it through legislation, if necessary. Then the debt can be used as a reason to sell the CCOs.
      Watercare have already been put into debt – they owe $345 million in taxes, according to their annual report.
      Now the CEO that oversaw this at Watercare controls the transport CCO too.
      I’m hoping Len Brown and a new government next year will put a stop to this.

  4. burt 4

    Nats blame Labour for ‘decade of deficits’

    “After nine years of a Labour government we are now presented with a decade of deficits and quite frankly New Zealand can not afford Michael Cullen’s high spending low growth programme.”

    He said Miss Clark and Dr Cullen had to take responsibility for squandering nine years of economic growth.

    He’s a laugh isn’t he – saying Labour should take responsibility… what was he thinking.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      Labour will certainly take responsibility for leading NZ as all John is doing is flashing his smile and waving, while Bill acts as the MP for Karori.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 4.2

      Third lowest government debt in the Western World! Won’t be for long though that English and Key have conspired to trash the revenue base though.

      • Herodotus 4.2.1

        Well spoken from the 2 headed man. Yet allowed NZ to have one of the largest OECD balance of payments deficits 8% (never addressed by either govt) and overseas debt. the govt debt levels allowed us some ability for greater govt intervention in giving us a buffer for the now past recessions. But should another occur in the near future we are out of bullets, unless we follow the thinking of NZFP in todays open mike comment 1.1

        Open mike 13/10/2010


        http://www.oecd.org/document/31/0,3343,en_2649_34569_42539359_1_1_1_1,00.html
        http://www.oecd.org/document/30/0,3343,en_2649_33733_42547230_1_1_1_1,00.html

      • burt 4.2.2

        But we have shit all to show for Labour’s 9 year tyranny than they paid down debt. Where is the shiny new infrastructure?

        NZ agreed in 1999 that they didn’t mind paying a few cents more tax to fix health and education. Bugger forgot about than and paid of the credit card – over to National now … ohhh look how bad National are the economy is in ruins and it has billions to borrow to fix health, education, new trains, roads, stadiums….

        Yeah yeah tick the red team.

        • Puddleglum 4.2.2.1

          “where is the shiny new infrastructure”?

          Burt, it’s called ‘people’ and they are our most important asset. Paid parental leave; 4 weeks annual leave; early childhood education support; increases to the minimum wage; working for families; interest free student loans …

          I’m no blind supporter of Labour but I’ll back any policies that give human beings a breather and half a chance to have a life.

          National’s policies, by contrast, almost always undermine our human infrastructure making a harder world in which children and families find they have to survive: endless policies to make work, employers and the workplace dominate, over-rule and undermine individuals, families and communities (e.g., the raft of new labour legislation; tighter rules for beneficiaries; massive reductions in community education funding; new research funding criteria to prioritise the needs of industry, etc., etc.).

          Why do you support National when so often their policies lead to the destruction of persons, family and community? Don’t you like people, families and communities?

    • BLiP 4.3

      Hey burt, seen this .

      Bill English had to swallow the proverbial dead rat this morning and effectively acknowledge that Michael Cullen had done something right in his stewardship of the Government’s finances in the past nine years.

      Now tell me, was Blinglish lying then or is he lying now?

    • rosy 4.4

      It’s a bit tautological to use as evidence for poor economic management to say that when national came into power national said there would be a decade of debt.

  5. Dan 5

    I have spoken to a wide range of people after the local body elections, and many commented on what a great weekend it was. They all felt good about themselves, that there were more people in the country who had the same outlook on where things should be going; and that the message to central government was that they had better listen to the community rather than arrogantly foisting failed right wing agendas on a wide variety of cities and towns.
    When the people who voted for a change last time get the confidence to say they were wrong, then I have optimism there will be a change next election. Labour will need to enunciate clear points of difference, and will need to continue the hard work at local level.

  6. infused 6

    Suddenly you care about polls? Oh I see…

    And it’s not the National vote that Labour has gained by… Doens’t really say a lot does it?

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      Given Act is the one that lost the most ground, are you suggesting that Labour won voters over from Act?

      Or is it more likely that Act voters went to National and National voters have gone to Labour? Of course the flows from the former aren’t much more than a trickle, and the flows from the latter can only grow…

  7. Francisco Hernandez 7

    Good.

    New Zealand voters are finally waking up to the fact that John Key started the recession

  8. luva 8

    So Labour is more or less where they were on the day Clark was booted from office. National still well ahead of where they were when Key swept to power.

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      Apparently you can’t read graphs straight.

      Don’t worry mate, we’re working hard for every bit of momentum on the ground.

      Key is already a liability to National’s right wing and to its centrists.

      • luva 8.1.1

        Which graph did I not read “more or less” correctly.

        How is Key a liabilty to the right?

        The left hate him as they always have. But his support is still extraordinarliy high. Can you point me towards the National supporters that consider him a liabilty.?

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1

          How is Key a liabilty to the right?

          Uh, because he’s not Right, he’s very centrist.

          But his support is still extraordinarliy high.

          You are referring to measurements of history my friend, and hoping that people don’t pick up that his ‘leadership’ = ‘gutless judging of which way the wind is blowing today’.

          History will show that National’s popularity started irretrievably sliding from Sept 2009.

          • Lats 8.1.1.1.1

            I really hope you’re right CV. But we ought not underestimate the stupidity/gullibility of those who chose to vote for the Nats in 2008. If they did it once they can do it again, although Jonkey won’t have the carrot of tax cuts to wave in front of them next year I suppose. You have to wonder what bribe he’s going to pull out of his hat this time…

  9. smhead 9

    It’s so funny to see you lefties get excited about ONE POLL that still shows Labour miles behind, on the basis of a tiny improvement in Labour, while you ignore every other poll.

    I don’t see what you’re crowing about over this poll though. Labour’s support has risen at the expense of Winston. Without Winston you can’t form a government.

    • Craig Glen Eden 9.1

      I didn’t notice any crowing smhead just a few observations in relation to this poll and the weekends Local Government results. So any noises you are hearing in your head are yours alone.

      Built any space ships in your lounge lately sm?

    • gobsmacked 9.2

      smhead

      It’s not about one poll, it’s the long-term trend. After the 2008 election, National went to historic highs. They have slowly come down from those (very high) numbers, over many months. In 2010, only the Canterbury earthquake has given National a boost in polling. Otherwise the trend is one way.

      So the parties are almost back to election day, 2008. Obviously National would win, on those numbers. But the campaign hasn’t started yet. And if they lose only a couple of percentage points, then they need ACT or the Maori Party. Then it gets messy.

      All to play for, then.

      There’s a graph at the top of this page. The trend is clear.

    • It isn’t the Morgan poll that has excited it’s the fact the whole country voted known Left-Wing candidates at the local elections. I cannot remember a local body in the last 50 years where it was obvious which political party the candidates favoured . For years local body candidates have claimed to be”Independent” .Most of these Independents were Tories in drag. This year the Left has organized itself and won. If the party applies the same energy at the General Election Labour will win. The South Auckland votes are critical and can and will be the winning formula.
      The efforts of the Auckland team in this local election are to be applauded
      lets hope they are available general election time.However Key and his mates will not take this Left victory lighty. They wil be scheming right now!.

  10. Sanctuary 10

    Middle class & beltway opinion – read the Dimpost for a perfect example – is still totally dismissive of Labour. Mind you, middle class opinion also held that John Banks and Kerry Prendergast would win their respective mayoral races. Against a background of total middle class scorn and media hostility (let’s face it – the middle class IS the media in this country, and both groups are still totally besotted with John Key – their man, their aspirational model) Labour and the Greens are but 5% from drawing level with National. Further, the MP is about to implode and ACT is finished – I don’t think people outside Auckland realise just how discredited Hide is.

    My advice to the middle class? Start taking notice of the likely nature of Lab/Green government, because National is vulnerable as hell.

    • freedom 10.1

      do not overlook the potential real impact of Independants at the next General Election.

      I for one am not voting for any party untill they repeal CERRA and take it off the books.
      I will not support any party that knowingly puts dictatorial power above NZ laws,

    • Carol 10.2

      Many of us middleclass people are lefties. You are over-generalising. And some of us read the MSM, knowing it mostly leans to the right.

      • Sanctuary 10.2.1

        Trotsky would disagree. And whatever you think of Marxist solutions, usually the analysis is pretty spot on.

        • Carol 10.2.1.1

          Now you have confused me. I suppose it depends on what you mean by “middle” class. Trotsky’s ideas weren’t exactly the same on class as Marx’s – at least as far as the solutions go. Marx mainly focused on two classes, so for him there wasn’t really a middleclass. And I do like Marxist analysis, so do many people who are classed as “middleclass” by many non-Marxists.

  11. Adrian 11

    What about the possibility that Labour has risen by the undecideds getting down off the fence. Nationals 50% or so is 50% of people who don’t hang up, say pissoff or are genuinely undecided, their support is probably more like 38/40% of the population if that, and thats all they’ve got. Give the undecideds something to vote for and they will come out again. You listening, Phil.

  12. ianmac 12

    Morgan: “Of all electors surveyed, 8.5% (up 3%) did not name a party.”
    I take it that these are the undecided electors? If more are less sure of NAct is this a good thing?

    • freedom 12.1

      I would hazard a guess that the ‘undecided’ voters of today are more likely to be supporting Independants than simply not being able to choose which banker’s flag they want to salute.

      • Colonial Viper 12.1.1

        not being able to choose which banker’s flag they want to salute.

        I laughed out loud. Then I cried.

    • felix 12.2

      Some of those undecideds are the undecideds who later decide and ultimately decide the result of the election.

      Last time a lot of them voted Nat. Now they’re not so sure.

  13. Interesting 13

    Interesting that there have been THREE polls out in the last two weeks. and the only one mentioned is this one.

    why no comment on the other ones that show Labour down. Nats up?

    Rogue polls? or inconvenient truth?

    to keep balance all polls should be looked at and not just cast aside as not right just because they are showing results that dont suit.

    • gobsmacked 13.1

      @Interesting (not very)

      There has been precisely one poll showing National up and Labour down. It was the first one after the earthquake (Colmar Brunton, One News). Entirely predictable (and predicted).

      If you know of any others, please let us know.

      Let’s discuss any polls you like, such as people voting.

      • gobsmacked 13.1.1

        False.

        • gobsmacked 13.1.1.1

          This is quite amusing, but I should probably explain.

          I wrote “False” earlier, replying to a comment that has since been deleted.

          So now “False” is fixed at the bottom of the comments.

          So whatever anyone says, they get “False” in reply. Sorry about that!

          Ths is True.

      • Interesting 13.1.2

        http://www.3news.co.nz/Voters-weigh-in-on-GST-increase—poll/tabid/370/articleID/180826/Default.aspx

        While this shows a slight rise for Lab and a slight fall for Nats, it is in line with the Colmar Brunton Poll.

        Two polls with similar results.

        Nats:

        Colmar: 54% 3News: 53.8%

        Lab:

        Colmar: 32% 3News: 32.6%

        Greens:

        Colmar: 8% 3News: 7.6%

        Maori:

        Colmar: 2.4% 3News: 2.3%

        Act:

        Colmar: 1.1% 3News: 0.9%

        nz first:

        colmar: 2.4% 3news: 1.2%

        These polls were about two (2) weeks apart. so it is fair to say that they are a good gauge. two seperate polls, done two weeks apart with almost identical results.

        • gobsmacked 13.1.2.1

          So you were wrong, which is why you deleted your previous post.

          Apology accepted.

        • the pink postman 13.1.2.2

          My personal opinion is that polls are a lot of godswallop. ie.who is asked , what is the question and more importantly what district ?
          Admittedly polls are sometimes right but they are also very often wrong . It’s the poll on the day that matters . If the Left gets out its people then the Left wins. As the late but great Joe HIll said “Organize Organize , Organize . The Auckland Lefties did just that ! Get the people out .

  14. Interesting 14

    My point gobsmacked is that it seems that only polls that suit are mentioned on this site.

    I would rather all polls were mentioned and discussed. that way there is balance.

    not just polls that suit egos.

    • Pascal's bookie 14.1

      That’s not very interesting at all actually.

      I’d rather you also said things that are interesting, that way it would balance out all the boredom.

      Saying fewer things that actually false would be good too, rather than just making up shit to suit your boring argument.

    • lprent 14.2

      We don’t have room to post all of the polls and they are kind of irrelevant unless there is a change in trend as has shown up in Morgans for the last few times. In any case most of the polls from different polling companies have strong differences due to differences in polling techniques, which is why we tend to only put up Morgan polls because they are believed by the authors here to be closest to reality, as well as being far more regular than the others. Obsessive poll watching is a bit of a pointless activity. Looking at medium term trends in them is interesting.

      If you want to see all of the polls, go to a site that is a specialist in them. For instance I tend to look at KiwiBlogGuy for longer term trends.

  15. I dreamed a dream 15

    Forget about some of the peculiarities about MMP (such as minimum %, etc) for the moment, let’s look at pure numbers:

    Currently, the groupings are as follows:
    NACT Government: Nat 49.5% + MAO 2.5% + ACT 0.5% = 52.5%
    Opposition: Lab 36.5% + Gre 8% + NZF 2.5% = 47.5%

    If we move the Maori Party to their natural grouping with Labour and others, the totals are as follows:
    Centre-Right: Nat 49.5% + ACT 0.5% = 50.0%
    Centre-Left: Lab 36.5% + Gre 8% + NZF 2.5% + MAO 2.5% = 50.0%

    It’s a dead-heat, a year out from Election 2011. National must be worried. Considering the swing to the left in the recent local body elections (apart from the Earthquate Bob anomaly), National must be really worried. Let’s see if National will start getting panicky with how they run things. Interesting times ahead indeed.

    I lost interest for a while, but now I am excited again.

    • Seti 15.1

      “Centre-Left: Lab 36.5% + Gre 8% + NZF 2.5% + MAO 2.5% = 50.0%”

      Still requires Winston being elected

      • Colonial Viper 15.1.1

        Labour needs to go up another 2%, so do Greens.

      • I dreamed a dream 15.1.2

        “Still requires Winston being elected”

        Come election time, I think Winston/NZF will gain enough votes off National to easily get above 5%.

        “Labour needs to go up another 2%”

        That should not be a problem even based on the current trend’s slow creep.

    • ak 15.2

      ….. but now I am excited again. Aye. Now project from the difference between the Local Bod polls and the actual LB results and get orgasmic. Feel that tory fear – and wait for a big Benny-bash for Christmas.

      ( Earthquate Bob heh – prefer Seismic Prick meself…..Richter sphincter?)

  16. If we say that the Maori Party will win all of the Maori electorates, on those numbers Labour/Greens/Maori Party/Peter Dunne would have the numbers for government.

    I\’m starting to think looking at those numbers that it won\’t be Labour who will need New Zealand First, it will be National. Given it looks like they can\’t rely on ACT, National have two options to secure governance, aim for the 50% plus majority, or rule Winston back in.

  17. Jeremy Harris 18

    If this isn’t a one off it’s quite close…

    National is trying to be all things to all people and when you do that you piss everyone off…

  18. swordfish 19

    Far, far more important than all this, why can’t opinion poll companies make the demographic breakdowns from their polls widely available ? I’d like to be able to compare support changes between 2008 and now in terms of age, socio-economic group, gender, geographical location and so on.

    And I’ll take it very badly if anyone replies “false” !!!

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Petrol companies promise prices will come back down once peace is restored to the Middle East
    BP, Z and Mobil all insist that petrol price hikes are temporary, “in a very literal sense.” The nation’s major petrol providers are trying to allay customer fears over prices, promising that they’ll move to lower them again “immediately” when the Middle East is returned to its formerly peaceful state. ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    13 hours ago
  • All Blacks unveil boat for Rugby World Cup 2019
    South African coach Rassie Erasmus says he has no idea what they’re going to do about the boat. In a highly anticipated press conference this afternoon, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has finally unveiled the team’s boat for its Rugby World Cup 2019 campaign. In a press conference that went ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    14 hours ago
  • An increasingly shoddy coverup
    The Operation Burnham inquiry continued to question senior NZDF staff today, and their shoddy coverup over their knowledge of civilian casualties continue to fall apart. If you recall, first, we were asked to believe that it was all a series of "mistakes and errors": a senior officer with multiple degrees ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    17 hours ago
  • If we are to avoid making the earth uninhabitable, we need to rapidly decarbonise our civilisation, and cut emissions to zero as quickly as possible. This seems like an impossible task, but its not. Pushing hard on a few technologies and trends will let us halve emissions in a decade:Greenhouse ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    19 hours ago
  • A further attack on transparency
    The Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) had part of its committee stage yesterday. its a generally tedious bill about the nitty-gritty of local government reorganisation. But it includes a clause making the Local Government Commission subject to the Ombudsmen Act, and hence the OIA. Great! Except of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    19 hours ago
  • Ihumātao and Treaty settlements
    Yesterday Ihumātao's mana whenua reached a consensus that they would like their land back, and asked the government to negotiate with Fletcher's for its return. The government's response? Try and undermine that consensus, while talking about how doing anything would undermine existing Treaty settlements. The first is just more bad ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    24 hours ago
  • Protecting our history
    Its Suffrage Day, the 126th anniversary of women winning the right to vote (but not stand in elections) in New Zealand. And to celebrate, the government has bought Kate Sheppard's house in Christchurch:The government has bought Kate Sheppard's former home in Christchurch for more than $4 million. The Ilam villa ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Climate Change: Ostracising the coal-burners
    The UN climate summit is happening in new York next week, and unlike previous years, coal-burners and denier-states are not being invited to speak:Leading economies such as Japan and Australia will not be invited to speak at next week’s crunch UN climate change summit, as their continued support for coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Jojo Tamihere Salutes Herr Goff.
    Get Back Jojo! The elation in Mayor Phil Goff’s camp may be easily imagined as they watched social media light up in indignation at challenger John Tamihere’s "Sieg Heil to that" quip. Just when JT’s notoriously right-wing, sexist and homophobic stains were beginning to fade back into his ‘colourful’ past, ...
    1 day ago
  • Hard News: A fun but flawed weed documentary
    Patrick Gower is good value when he's high. Not that I've ever, you know, got stoned with him. But in the second part of his documentary Patrick Gower on Weed, he does what you'd expect in a modern weed documentary and immerses himself – first with a doctor, then a ...
    1 day ago
  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 days ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    3 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    3 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    4 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    4 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    5 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    6 days ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    7 days ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    1 week ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    1 week ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago

No feed items found.