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May’s Brexit

Written By: - Date published: 1:02 pm, November 15th, 2018 - 91 comments
Categories: Europe, International, uk politics - Tags: , ,

The unsolvable problem that is Brexit is reaching it’s denouement with Theresa May’s leadership on the line, talk of a no confidence motion, a very leaky cabinet, and no possible achievable resolution in sight.

The leaks are a clear sign that the cabinet is not a happy place …

And the terms of the deal are going to cause major ructions …

Just go through the terms of the deal. Who amongst the Brexit supporters would feel comfortable with signing a thirty nine billion pound cheque and handing it over to the supposed forces of evil?

And it is deliciously ironic that Northern Ireland and it’s border is the cause of so many problems. The solution is simple, reunite Ireland and cede sovereignty of the area.  Of course that will not happen. But the coalition with the DUP is close to breaking point over the terms of a backstop needed and the terms of border imspections if some form of customs union cannot be negotiated in the next couple of years.

The problems seem insolvable. The EU is not going to give the UK a free pass and the need to have some sort of trading arrangement means that a hard Brexit will be calamatous. But a soft Brexit is totally unacceptable to too many in her party.  I can’t see how May can solve this let alone keep her party discipline imtact.

But don’t expect Labour to be disciplined on the issue.

91 comments on “May’s Brexit”

  1. Brutus Iscariot 1

    It’s not really a matter of party discipline, it’s almost a conscience vote. TBH the hardcore Tory Brexiteers need to get with the programme and accept the deal as the only reasonable one on the table, and Labour MPs need to see it through (respecting democracy) as a reasonable compromise.

  2. Bill 2

    I’m going to stick with my earlier ‘reckons’ that the EU will come up with an 11th hour “offer” that will mean the UK stays, but with a heavy price attached.

    ‘Remainers’ will rejoice in the initial short time that will elapse between being “saved” from the frying pan and realising that they’re destined for the fire.

    And UK Labour’s journey away from liberalism will be a ‘dead in the water’ thing.

    I hope I’m wrong, and that the EU is happy enough with the prospect of a departed UK.

    • Gosman 2.1

      UK Labour wants to remain within the Customs Union indefinitely Bill.

      • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1

        While UK, in a fit of democracy, voted to leave.

        That does mean that the oligarchs don’t have any say in the matter. Even the ones in UK Labour.

        • SPC 2.1.1.1

          The referendum was not a clear mandate for Brexit.

          The majority was not across the generations, those who have to live with the consequences voted to remain.

          As the younger voters supported remain, the majority that voted for Brexit is dying off with every passing year – and new voters who more likely to vote remain are taking their place.

          In that context an extreme Brexit has NO MANDATE. A modest halfway house arrangement is a considered response.

          • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1.1.1

            I didn’t mention the type of separation. Just that the voters of the UK voted to leave.

            Now it’s up to the politicians to make that work. I doubt if that’s going to happen as most of them still believe in capitalism and empire despite its total failure throughout history.

            • Gosman 2.1.1.1.1.1

              You keep stating that Capitalism has totally failed yet you provide zero practical evidence of another system that does better nor you specify how it has failed.

              • Draco T Bastard

                I’ve provided evidence and research that shows that capitalism always fails and always will.

                I’ve made suggestions as to how we can change the system to one that works.

                1. Get rid of the capitalists and make all businesses self-owned cooperatives
                2. Shift to full participatory democracy rather than the oligarchical representative democracy that we have
                3. Make housing a right with houses owned by the state
                4. Live within our physical means and protect the environment that allows us to live
                5. Stop all forms of unearned income

                You will, of course, keep saying that I’ve haven’t put forward a better system because of your ideological beliefs that are fully disconnected from reality.

                • Gosman

                  That first link only mentions industrial society. You can have a non-Capitalist industrial society. Indeed that was what the Soviet Union was.

                  The second link is an opinion piece not research. I am sure you can find lots of people who share your opinion Draco. That does not make you right.

                  • McFlock

                    Well, if Das Kapital doesn’t do it for you, nothing will.

                  • Draco T Bastard

                    The Soviet Union was state capitalist. That said:

                    It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of modern civilisation:

                    “The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent.”

                    By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.

                    These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: “the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity”; and “the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or “Commoners”) [poor]” These social phenomena have played “a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse,” in all such cases over “the last five thousand years.”

                    Perhaps you should have tried reading it and not just the headline.

                    The second link is an essay showing the results of the research – essentially a meta paper. That’s what all the numbers are – the references. It’s unfortunate that they didn’t have them link to the references.

                • Tricledrown

                  DTB your utopian idealistic tweek on communism overlooks Nature’s basic tenant completion humans are part of nature you will never ever overcome that competitive drive that would be like saying every tree has to be exactly the same that lions stop being predators.
                  Humans are predators you will not unsurp nature’s genetic predisposition of several hundred million years of evolving. Being fair is not a survival trait.

                  • Draco T Bastard

                    DTB your utopian idealistic tweek on communism overlooks Nature’s basic tenant completion humans are part of nature you will never ever overcome that competitive drive that would be like saying every tree has to be exactly the same that lions stop being predators.

                    Are you, like, drunk or something?

                    Your sentences aren’t making any sense.

                    And, no, we don’t get to blame human nature as we’re actually intelligent and can think about things and do the Right Thing™ and are not running on pure instinct. But, even if we were, we wouldn’t actually be acting the way you think humans do. Most people are altruistic.

                    It’s the sociopaths that aren’t.

                    Humans are predators you will not unsurp nature’s genetic predisposition of several hundred million years of evolving. Being fair is not a survival trait.

                    Man, you really do talk crap.

                    We survived and continue to survive because we evolved as social beings. And that includes being fair, honest and looking after your neighbours.

            • greywarshark 2.1.1.1.1.2

              Of those who voted on the indicative referendum a majority voted to leave the EU. But it was not an overwhelming majority who thought it a good idea to leave.

              A referendum – a vote in which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age can take part – was held on Thursday 23 June, 2016, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting.
              Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU
              https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

              It was indicative and did not have to be acted on’ it wasn’t TINA,; it wasn’t an order given by the voters; it was a negative to the present results of belonging to the EU. Obviously change was required, so the Conservatives (who seem to abhor thinking unpleasant facts leading to disorienting change) decided to make it a ‘fait accompli’ without too much hard thinking, and a lot of port old boy (or whatever is their tipple).

              Now the Conservatives in their stupid mindset of self-importance, self-centred arrogance have put the UK in a very bad way, but being the representatives of the self-considered ruling classes they can’t admit fault.

              \Meanwhile the rest of the population are helpless as they watch the game which goes on interminably without a satisfactorily scored goal in sight. Everyone is sucking on lemons instead of oranges and waiting to see whether it will be a spectacular defeat or a pusillanimous one. The lone mike outside No.10 – does it broadcast in both directions? Ms May may hear this coming from it:

              • Draco T Bastard

                It was indicative and did not have to be acted on’ it wasn’t TINA,; it wasn’t an order given by the voters; it was a negative to the present results of belonging to the EU.

                If it didn’t happen it would clearly show just how much of a democracy that the UK is.

                • greywarshark

                  It would show a democracy that is responsible to the best interests of all its people and works within their laws?

                  • Draco T Bastard

                    No, it would show a democracy that ignored the will of the people despite belonging to the EU being negative for the majority of the population. In other words, we’d see an actual dictatorship.

                    Now, you could say that that was just the perception of the majority and that they really were better off but for the majority of people they’ve actually seen their living standards decrease as the EU and other free-trade policies have been put in place.

                    • Tricledrown

                      DTB most people have done well in the EU backwards areas that have relied on small agriculture and have poor education have faired badly but that’s the same everywhere.
                      Nature failing to adapt.
                      Govts in Europe are largely right wing meaning their are more well off than those who are not.
                      Same as NZ.

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      DTB most people have done well in the EU backwards areas that have relied on small agriculture and have poor education have faired badly but that’s the same everywhere.

                      Yes, that’s what happens under capitalism and it’s inherent need to throw the majority of people on the scrapheap and then blame those victims.

                      Govts in Europe are largely right wing meaning their are more well off than those who are not.

                      Poverty has been increasing in all nations following right-wing policies.

                    • Tricledrown

                      Poverty has been declining in many countries because Protectionism has declined Western countries used to take pity on many developing countries and give them some aid now those countries are doing much better because they are trading through open markets. While Western countries have sat on their hands expecting the world to revolve around them.
                      Those days have gone and will never come back the end of colonialism has changed the world.
                      We have to adapt or be surpassed.
                      Communism is finished as well.
                      So in the real world we have educate our population to fill the new rolls.
                      Harping back to some utopian dream that never existed is not the way forward.
                      The rules have changed just blaming everything on capitalism is futile humans have always traded since the beginning of civilization and civilization has grown up around trading.

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      Poverty has been declining in many countries because Protectionism has declined Western countries used to take pity on many developing countries and give them some aid now those countries are doing much better because they are trading through open markets.

                      Africa (all of it) was actually doing far better development wise before the IMF and WB forced it’s borders open to Western ‘trade’. There has been some improvement but not as much as there would have been if they’d been left alone. Even the debt crisis was initiated by the Western powers. A debt crisis that simply wasn’t needed because no country needs to borrow money from another.

                      See, we’re not really talking trade here but exploitation and theft of their resources.

                      Those days have gone and will never come back the end of colonialism has changed the world.

                      We’re seeing a new type of colonialism brought about by the so-called free-market policies. That of foreign private business owning local resources and selling them to the rich nations with no benefit going to the nation that the resources are extracted from. That, BTW, is what the ~$5 billion in profit leaving NZ just for the Australian banks is.

                      We have to adapt or be surpassed.

                      We’re not adapting and the foreign multi-nationals are turning back into serfs.

                      So in the real world we have educate our population to fill the new rolls.

                      And we’re not doing that either. In fact, we’ve turned it into another way to turn us into serfs of our new foreign owners through the student loan scheme.

                      Harping back to some utopian dream that never existed is not the way forward.

                      Good job nobody’s doing that then. It was capitalism back then as well and thus no utopia.

                      The rules have changed just blaming everything on capitalism

                      That’s just it though. The rules haven’t changed. They’re the same rules as the Roman Empire used and they’re there to protect capitalism.

                      The Roman Empire, as you may not have noticed, collapsed because of the rich people produced by those rules.

            • Matthew Whitehead 2.1.1.1.1.3

              Actually it’s pretty normal in these types of votes to have a confirmation referendum after the terms of the constitutional change are made specific- so people should have a three-option referendum of “remain,” “take the deal,” or “no-deal exit from the EU.”

              It’s especially needed as the mandate for Brexit was ridiculously slim in the first place.

              • Draco T Bastard

                I’d be happy with that.

                • Matthew Whitehead

                  So would I, but mostly because I think “remain” would win in any fair vote now.

                  Of course, it’s the UK, so they would no doubt hold an FPP-style vote for a three-option referendum and screw it up completely.

        • CHCOff 2.1.1.2

          If it creates more room for New Zealand to become, of a values driven economic commonwealth block, in who we are, and who we were, then lets support the British clearing out the cobwebs.

          NZ1st!

          • Gosman 2.1.1.2.1

            How will it be NZ 1st if we support the British?

            • CHCOff 2.1.1.2.1.1

              Being part of a commonwealth trading block would have the most resonance for NZers than any other.

              A commonwealth trading block could be a world leading one in a positive direction as relates to geo-political tensions. There is much current opportunity for a commonwealth trading block. New Zealand would have a good role in it to play.

              LOCAL LOCAL LOCAL
              A commonwealth trading block could provide the best structural set-u[ for developing and magnifying LOCAL as the principles that shape and represent New Zealand in trading deals. The basis of economic activity has historically been for most of history, building community. It is sorely lacking currently, the promotion of the feelings that Producers are consumers, and when Consuming that individuals are producers. Another words the value systems of the whole processes have gotten lost, in no small part to exclusive modern tally systems & associated complicated tax structures. Anyhow, the LOCAL approach can provide a bulwark against this.

              A trading block that brings back whole value system to it’s economic activity would have much success in the world. And would bring fortune to New Zealand society.

              NZ1st!

              • Gosman

                “A commonwealth trading block could provide the best structural set-u[ for developing and magnifying LOCAL as the principles that shape and represent New Zealand in trading deals.”

                Ummm… the UK is not local. Neither is most of the rest of the Commonwealth beyond Australia and the Pacific Islands.

                I don’t know why you think it would allow this. Care to explain why?

          • greywarshark 2.1.1.2.2

            CHC off
            What do the Commonwealth say about it? After all we went over to Europe for the First World War then a little later the Second World War. We hadn’t quite managed to destroy the whole world with that one, and hoped we wouldn’t be called on to serve in another world war, and that the European Union would avoid large divisions, and competing treaties and encroachments among the various countries.

            I think we in the Commonwealth have done enough helping the UK to keep its sovereignty and freedom, to warrant a say in this imbroglio. No-one I have read or heard talks about what we said when we were called together to discuss this latest edict from Mother England. Did I miss something? Or has there been no attempt by the UK to explain and discuss the matter with her closest allies?

          • Tricledrown 2.1.1.2.3

            A very much weakened UK wil not do much for the NZ economy.
            Living in the past no major trading block is bothered to do a free trade deal with post Brexit UK.
            They will have no economic clout.

    • roy cartland 2.2

      So either way they get a shittier deal than what they already had.

  3. ScottGN 3

    The £39 billion is a far cry though from the £80 billion-odd figure that got thrown about in aftermath of the referendum. And according to the ONS represents about 4 years net contributions from the UK to the EU.

  4. Ad 4

    Rees-Mogg for PM asap please.
    Too fun 😁

  5. greywarshark 5

    The latest news from Tadionz:

    https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018671326/brexit-breakthrough

    British Prime Minister Theresa May has won the backing of her senior ministers for a draft European Union divorce deal more than two years after the UK voted to leave the EU- but she faces more battles ahead.

    Having won over her divided cabinet, she now faces the ordeal of trying to push her deal through a vote in the British parliament. UK correspondent Matt Dathan has the latest.

    (The deadline is March next year I think. And it has to survive leadership challenge, British parliament, EU parliament etc…. That’s what i picked up with a passing ear.)

  6. SpaceMonkey 6

    The EU were always going to play hardball. To allow a member to leave easily would put everything that the globalists have worked for at risk. They have to make the UK a scapegoat, to teach them pesky Brits a lesson, and to make it very clear to any other EU member contemplating leaving that it will not be tolerated and it will be painful.

    It’s going to be hard Brexit or nothing. I see another Brexit referendum on the horizon.

  7. SpaceMonkey 7

    “The solution is simple, reunite Ireland and cede sovereignty of the area.”

    Agreed, and it feels like this is only a matter of time. Ireland is open to it (according to a family friend who works for Fine Gael). Every year sees fewer subsidies heading Northern Ireland’s way from Westminster making it easier for Ireland to pick up the tab, so to speak. The Irish government already recognize Northern Irish (or more correctly anyone born on the island of Ireland) as citizens (if they want to apply for a passport) and have no plans to change this post-Brexit.

    • SPC 7.1

      It’s acclimatisation.

      The closer connection to Eire’s place in the EU than the rest of the EU, increasing numbers with Irish passports (in both Northen Ireland and those in the UK with Irish ancestry).

      Then there is the Irish economic recovery after the GFC while the UK has continuing budget deficits and public debt rising towards 100% GDP.

      And “Ireland” is becoming a more secular place reducing divisions based on religious tribalism.

      As I noted back in 1998, when Ireland is Irish, Britain can be come British (those who oppose unity in Ireland are/were really promoting fragmentation of their own island).

  8. Wayne 8

    MS

    You should not assume that this won’t get through Parliament. I think it might.

    Even if it is rejected first time round, it will be modified, rather than starting afresh.

    It is the deal on the table. Both the UK and the EU have had to give to get this far.

    The only other deal is “no deal.” Not really practical since the UK wants to be closer to Europe than that implies. A the very least, an extremely comprehensive FTA.

    I have always thought Theresa May is a much more determined leader than people give her credit for. This is probably the biggest thing any British PM has had to deal with since the end of WW2. Withdrawing was always going to be tough with difficult choices to be made.

    In the current situation, her role on Brexit is not really a “left/right” ideological role, it is about being tough enough to negotiate the best deal that Britain can get.

    This is probably it.

    While I expect Labour to vote against, I also expect enough Labour defections to get it through. They will balance the remainder Conservatives led by Rees Mogg who will be voting against.

    I don’t expect a challenge for the premiership. Lots of wild talk, but actually 48 Conservatives signing a letter of no confidence, I think not. I know if I was an MP in the Conservative Party I would not sign such a letter, way too risky at the moment. The process of selecting a new leader is too complicated, and the new leader will be faced with exactly the same dilemmas. It is not May 1940!

    • Gosman 8.1

      How can it be modified given this is the (according to May) BEST deal that the UK can negotiate and the vote will be a simple case of accepting or rejecting the negotiated agreement?

    • Tricledrown 8.2

      May is a scapegoat no one else wants to take the poison chalice the right is divided more than any time in modern history.
      They will be punished seriously at the polls which could happen any time with may relying on a cobbled together coalition.
      Hence Corbyns appeal to the right by not cancelling tax cuts for the well off.

  9. SPC 9

    I am not a fan of the Blairites (and have no problem with de-selection – members claiming back their party).

    However it is probably best that this sort of deal gets through parliament than otherwise. A no deal Brexit would be ruinous – and the Tories would take the nation well to the right. So, if they do one good thing before their day is done, well and good and then leave Corbyn’s Party to win the next election (join the Liberal Democrats where they belong and offer support and constructive criticism from the side benches).

    • SPC 9.1

      Tony Blair is asking the Blairites to vote against May’s deal and work towards a new referendum mandate to stay in the EU.

      The consequence of which would be May being removed as Tory leader, a no deal Brexit and a rightward shift in UK governance. And a winner take all battle between the extreme right and Corbyn at the next election.

      Labour would be wiser to do this

      PM you have our votes, provided the deal goes to the people in a referendum with an alternative option – where we stay in the EU.

  10. Ed 10

    The Northern Ireland Minister has resigned.

  11. joe90 11

    Brexit chaos continues.

    LONDON (Reuters) – Some lawmakers in Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party have said they expect at least 48 letters of no confidence will have been submitted by lunchtime on Thursday, ITV reporter Robert Peston said.

    A challenge to May is triggered if 15 percent of the parliamentary party, or 48 lawmakers, write letters demanding a confidence vote to the chairman of the party’s “1922 Committee”, which represents lawmakers who have no government jobs.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-confidence/uk-lawmakers-may-trigger-no-confidence-vote-in-may-itv-reporter-idUKKCN1NK0TZ

  12. Ed 12

    Malcolm Finch nails it.

    Tony Blair & Alastair Campbell appear to be unavailable for comment on the proposed Brexit deal. Perhaps the BBC could interview Ratko Mladić? It would be a pity to miss out on the War Criminal perspective.

  13. Observer Tokoroa 13

    The UNunited Kingdom

    I pity the Celts whom the poms kick around like so much kapok. For the poms will soon crush the Celts as they have always done throughout history.

    The Celts are honest. The poms are devious; glutenous; monstrously destructive. Above all they think they are superior. They have viciously pillaged and raped countless nations – right up to the very recent past. They still excel in making their citizens suffer. Be very aware of them.

    Being superior, the poms two years ago declared they are above Europe. They held a single referendum and by a too narrow margin the high and mighty felonious english voted to leave the “rubbish” they called Europe.

    This means the lower classes of england – including the middle class – will be impoverished massively by the bombastic aristocratic fools who run and operate the english parliament. Aristocratism invites Slavery – as we all know.

    The population of United Kingdom is 66 miilion – 55 Million if you exclude Celts.
    The Population of EU 27 Nations – is 508 Millions. Powerful.

    The Major difference between Europe and quaint pommy land is that Europeans have long histories and also have humanitarian rights and obligations.

    England has Lawyers, Euros have Justice. Justice is Democracy.

    • Gosman 13.1

      Pom is slang for British people. The Celtic people of the United Kingdom are British and therefore are also Poms. What you are stating is that the Celtic people are kicking themselves around like they have done throughout history (which isn’t untrue but not what I suspect you were meaning).

      • te reo putake 13.1.1

        Hmmm, that got me googling, Gosman. It turns out you are correct, though I’ve always thought it was directed at people of English stock. I recall being told it derived from early Australia where an immigrant from Albion was referred to as a ‘Prisoner of Mother England’, though that turns out to be a more recent invention.

        Thank the stars we’ve moved on from ‘Punch a Pom a Day’ and its terrific that all Kiwis now greet migrants with love, generosity and understanding.

  14. WeTheBleeple 14

    *Put’s hand up to be slapped…

    I don’t understand the 39 Billion. What is this for?

    • mickysavage 14.1

      Term of the EU treaty. If you leave you pay the cost.

      • Gosman 14.1.1

        Except it really isn’t part of the Treaty. If the UK was to crash out without an agreement (a real possibility at the moment) in March 2019 then there would be no mechanism in place to enforce the UK paying this amount. The EU might demand the UK does so but the UK could simply choose to ignore it.

        • WeTheBleeple 14.1.1.1

          I would definitely go for the FU EU option. If they’ve not got it in writing… their problem.

          • Macro 14.1.1.1.1

            At which point the EU would say FU and that would cost even more for UK.

            • Gosman 14.1.1.1.1.1

              When you state it will cost the UK more there is no mechanism for the EU to collect this from the UK once they leave. The EU can argue the UK owes it 80 Billion pounds (indeed some stated that it did) but if the UK does not agree to play ball with them they won’t be able to collect. Unless that is they decide to seize British assets in the EU. That would be taking the nuclear option.

              • Pat

                no need to seize assets….EU is UKs largest trading partner….multiple other methods to collect any perceived debt

                • Gosman

                  The EU could also add an extra tariff on UK goods entering the EU to pay the bill but that would be essentially taxing their own consumers to pay the bill.

                  • Pat

                    Tariffs also work in the other direction (and are not the only option)….as evidenced by the current situation, the EU is in the far stronger position in these negotiations….thats not to say that the EU s continued existence is a given.

                    • Gosman

                      What do you mean Tariffs also work in the other direction? Are you stating that the EU would impose a tax on EU businesses selling to the UK? This would be an effective way to raise funds without costing EU consumers but the UK could avoid paying the extra costs by not buying EU products.

                  • Pat

                    indeed they could…and the UK may choose to import from other sources (if available) however the UK is a net food importer (largely from EU) and they are deeply enmeshed in EU supply chains….and none of that will be quick nor easy to change.

                    Meanwhile….

                  • Tricledrown

                    Gosman just the fact of a hard border is going to damage UK industry’s.
                    The Cities financial capital of Europe has already been seriously damaged.
                    Farage the F/wit has had help from Putin to undermine democracy, Now Farages children have been found to have German passports.
                    The only hope the UK’s economy has is if the pound falls so low that it makes its more expensive manufacturing cheaper than its competitors. While limiting imports a very precarious gamble.

              • Macro

                I’m not considering the cost of the up front bill for leaving – the cost of a Hard Brexit would be huge in all manner of ways – not just economic.

  15. Dennis Frank 15

    Will Labour remainers side with May against Corbyn? “The Brexit deal cannot come into effect until parliament approves it in the “meaningful vote”, now expected early next month. She cannot get her Brexit deal through parliament without the support of large numbers of Labour MPs. At the moment, that seems unlikely.”
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-resignations-dominic-raab-esther-mcvey-theresa-may-vote-of-confidence-leadership-challenge-a8635146.html

    Corbyn could out-manoeuvre May? “Corbyn has, after all, offered to help the prime minister if she would listen to Labour’s demands. In practice, Labour’s policy is not very different from the government’s, but politically Corbyn is unlikely to want to be seen to “save” May. The question is whether Labour could avoid the opposite problem of being seen as voting for a no-deal Brexit.” This analysis doesn’t factor in the possibility that Corbyn could try to tweak the deal to improve it.

    “The plausible way in which a general election could happen would be if about a dozen pro-EU Conservative MPs voted to bring their government down – as the only way open to them to try to prevent a no-deal Brexit. If enough of them supported a Labour motion of no confidence in the government – different from a Tory party vote of no confidence in its leader – it would open the way to an election. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, if the government loses a motion of confidence, there is then a 14-day period in which Jeremy Corbyn could try to form a government. If he cannot, there must be an election.”

    “As long as Theresa May, or any other likely possible Conservative leader, is prime minister, it is hard to see how another referendum could happen. It would require Brexit day to be postponed, which is something that only the government can seek, and to which the other 27 EU members would have to agree.”

    So Corbyn has a looming opportunity to become a statesman. All he need do is design a better plan than May is offering, then do a deal with the Tory remainers to create a cross-party consensus. As PM, he could then propose a further referendum on the basis of that plan. Since it would be a compromise, it would be unlikely to contain anything the 27 EU members would reject, and would then be likely to win in a second referendum.

    • Wayne 15.1

      Dennis,
      Not going to happen. I can’t see any Conservative MP’s (well maybe 1 or 2) wanting to help Corbyn win a general election. As you note it would take at least a dozen to do so and I just don’t see that happening. And there is zero chance of DUP siding with Corbyn.
      Way more likely that a number of Labour MP’s will end up backing this deal, which will no doubt be enhanced over the next few weeks.

      • Dennis Frank 15.1.1

        Chances are that Corbyn lacks both the vision and the strength of character to realise it (as in the original meaning, to make real). Numbers may flow in both directions across the partisan divide, true. The opportunity derives from the national interest overcoming partisan loyalties, in the minds of the various players.

        Given that nationalism caused Brexit, it would be unwise to discount it! In this fluid extended moment, a true leader can create the nation’s future. That’s the test for Corbyn. A product of the zeitgeist – but is he a man of destiny or merely a socialist?

        So my framing of the situation is that the future of the UK can be secured via intelligent design, rather than May’s managerialism. A better plan, that eliminates the vassal state scenario (providing independence on a sound basis) yet also allows the UK to remain in a collaborative loose involvement with Europe on a genuine mutual-benefit basis, is always possible. Provided the Eurocrat collective dictatorship mind-set is eliminated as controller of the outcome.

      • SPC 15.1.2

        Merkel has already said don’t expect the EU to allow for any revisiting of the arrangment negotiated.

        It’s this, or a no deal Brexit, or no Brexit.

        Times Up on the negotiation.

      • woodart 15.1.3

        so whats more important, winning an election, or the long term future of your country??? honest answer please wayne.how many polies can really look at the BIG picture?

  16. Bearded Git 16

    This excellent House of Commons voter intentions model shows how hard it will be for May to get her Brexit deal through parliament.

    You can change the votes around interactively-if the extreme Brexiters only end up in the 30’s and the Conservative Brexit waverers vote FOR the deal it can sneak through.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/nov/15/can-you-get-mays-brexit-deal-through-parliament

  17. Morrissey 17

    So Corbyn has a looming opportunity to become a statesman.

    Corbyn is already very much a statesman. He is the most popular politician in all of Europe, and he leads the biggest, most vibrant democratic party in the world.

    • If Jezza was the most popular polly in Europe (and I suspect Putin might dispute that claim) it would be highly ironic given Corbyn’s a Brexiter.

      • Morrissey 17.1.1

        Fair comment, Te Reo. But my main point, that the extremely leader of the Labour Party is a statesman, still stands.

    • Tricledrown 17.2

      Yeah right Morrissy That’s because of the rise of Nationalism in Europe creating more divisive politics.
      Corbyn is playing a very fine line like not reversing tax cuts for the wealthy.

    • Chris T 17.3

      Just as an aside

      Why does he not fit into the just another rich, old, white, male category again?

      • Morrissey 17.3.1

        I’ve never given any credence at all to that stupid and offensive categorization of people.

  18. Wayne 18

    I think May will survive. Yes, she may have to endure a caucus vote of no confidence, but in my view she will win that. She will not resign because the very reason she is PM is Brexit. I reckon Rees Mogg has overestimated his influence.
    It is not like Thatcher narrowly winning a vote of no confidence in 1991, 11 years into her premiership. She was clearly at the end in any event. May is not, she is literally in the middle of her fight. Any new PM would have exactly the same issues. So that helps May.
    Neither will there be an early election. No Conservative MP, irrespective of where they stand, is going to want to hand over Brexit to Corbyn.
    All the current turmoil helps May’s negotiations with the EU. She will be able to extract more concessions, on the basis that they are essential if the deal is to have any chance of getting through parliament.

    • Gosman 18.1

      Wayne, she has lost two of her Brexit Ministers over this. Both gave very detailed explanation that they think the negotiations (which they were supposedly in charge of) have lead to a very negative outcome for the UK. Given this fact it is very difficult for May to argue that she is the best person for managing Brexit.

    • tc 18.2

      It’s a poison challice thanks to her own party so she’ll be left alone to front it.

      Just like a certain ex finance minister who stepped up to PM and lost the GE over housing, health and education policies he happily enforced whilst bagman.

      She’ll probably depart politics and who can blame her as she’s been royally shafted from within and having been the PM not too shabbily rewarded for services.

      • Wayne 18.2.1

        Yes, a poisoned chalice, which would be true for anyone in the role of PM at this stage. Which in my view is why she will stay.
        Everything about her says she will see Brexit through.
        And if she does, that will be an impressive achievement. An enduring record for any PM.

        • Macro 18.2.1.1

          Are you serious Wayne? The legacy of this Brexit will be a pall over the UK economy for generations. It will be enduring alright – but hardly something to be proud of.
          If she really wanted to do something for her country she would take leadership – listen to the millions of britons who are now waking up to the realisation of what a travesty the nationalists (aided and abetted by her Party) shafted them into – and give the voters a chance of a more enlightened referendum.

    • SPC 18.3

      No, there won’t be concessions beyond this deal on the leaving arrangement.

  19. Observer Tokoroa 19

    Hi Morrissey

    You write him up high. So, why does Jeremy Corbyn not seek to become Prime Minister?

    The Middle Class and Workers need a leader like Corbyn.

    • Gosman 19.1

      The Middle classes will soon become the Working (and non-working) classes under Corbyn.

      • Tricledrown 19.1.1

        So what policies has Corbyn advanced that give creedance to your Dogmatic BS. Gossipboy keeping tax cuts the tories are proposing stopping Brexit.
        Gossipboy your brainfarts are uninformed slavery to your Dogma.

  20. DS 20

    >>The solution is simple, reunite Ireland and cede sovereignty of the area.

    Ugh.

    Have you got any idea what that would do in terms of violence – never mind that Dublin actually doesn’t want the North?

    A united Ireland will eventually happen, but it is decades down the track, not some “quick solution” to Brexit.

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