More migration mythbusting

Written By: - Date published: 2:21 pm, June 26th, 2008 - 7 comments
Categories: im/migration - Tags: ,

From Brian Fallow in The Herald on migration and immigration:

…Statistics New Zealand has been comparing last year with previous peak gross outflows, allowing for changes in population size and age-structure.

In unadjusted terms, permanent and long-term departures for Australia last year were just 7 per cent lower than the 1979 peak, but 20 per cent lower if allowance is made for the growth in the population since then.

Compared with the 1988 peak the figures are 9 per cent and 22 per cent respectively.

Adjusting for the size of the population, departure rates of New Zealand citizens to Australia last year were very similar to rates in 2000, the previous peak in departures across the Tasman, Statistics NZ said.

“For both years the [departure] rates across most ages were lower than during the 1988 peak. However, rates in the late teens and 20s for these three years were well below the rates seen during the 1979 peak, when people aged 19 to 24 were more than twice as likely to leave for Australia on a permanent basis than they were in 2007.”

What’s that? So National’s strategy of continually running down New Zealand and the government because of an “exodus” to Australia isn’t really based on fact?

7 comments on “More migration mythbusting ”

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  1. Bryan Spondre 1
    26 June 2008 at 2:42 pm

    This would be all well and good if we were at the top ( or rather bottom) of exodus however the Reserve Bank is forecasting that NZ will lag Australia in GDP growth for several more years creating an ongoing trans-Tasman skill magnet.

    “The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is forecasting annual GDP growth will drop to around 1% through the rest of 2008 and through 2009, while Treasury in Australia is forecasting GDP growth of 3.5% to 3% over the next couple of years.”

    Bernard Hickey

    Furthermore the crucial age group to be concerned about is the 30-44 year olds who have the training, skill and maturity required to make significant contributions to the economy. 23% of those leaving are in this age group.

  2. Steve Pierson 2
    26 June 2008 at 2:55 pm

    More hollow attacks from National exposed.

    Bryan. When are you going to get this? No-one sees Bernard Hickey as an authority on anything. He’s a joke.

  3. mike 3
    26 June 2008 at 3:07 pm

    “No-one sees Bernard Hickey as an authority on anything. He’s a joke.”

    I’m sorry Steve but the msm obviously rate him as he is popping up more and more. You don’t have graph-envy or stats-rage do you?

  4. Steve Pierson 4
    26 June 2008 at 3:13 pm

    mike. it’s ‘riod rage.

  5. bill brown 5
    26 June 2008 at 3:16 pm

    msm obviously rate him

    No-one sees the msm as an authority on anything. They’re a joke.

  6. Bryan Spondre 6
    26 June 2008 at 3:54 pm

    Steve: Given the ‘air time’ The Standard has been giving to mythbusting migration Australia it is clearly a source of concern to the left.

    So do you think we are at the peak of the cycle or do we have a way to go before KIwi’s start flooding back across the ditch ?

  7. Draco TB 7
    26 June 2008 at 7:28 pm

    No-one sees the msm as an authority on anything. They’re a joke.

    QFT&E

    😛

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