Nats 40.5% in Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 8:20 pm, April 18th, 2013 - 61 comments
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I don’t think this is a rogue poll – and it came before the Powerco announcement! The trend line is certainly clear now and should reassure Eddie. John Key better get his knighthood sorted.

Full New Zealand Voting Results

We’ll have to watch out for the Pink Piranha now – I don’t think Steven Joyce  has got what it takes – he can’t look anyone in the eye.

61 comments on “Nats 40.5% in Roy Morgan ”

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  1. Matthew 1
    18 April 2013 at 8:24 pm

    Waiting for the Herald Digipoll that puts them 5 points higher & gets more attention.

  2. mickysavage 2
    18 April 2013 at 8:25 pm

    Normal transmission is in the process of being resumed.

    Was knuckleheadgate the tipping point?

    • tc 2.1
      18 April 2013 at 8:46 pm

      Knucklehead is a massive own goal from the Slippery one and the rhetoric from the shills is wearing thin in swinger land as folk can no longer ignore the fact they’re being conned.

      Teachers, chch residents, regulating away unions/protests/democratically elected bodies, welfare recipients…. is it any wonder Key spoke highly of thatcher

      The Oz media will help as they continue to report the growing migration under the nat’s onto their turf once their election’s over expect more on that issue.

      What he’s done is basically lay down a challenge to the media who should end up by showing NZild who the real knuckleheads are.

      Solid energy anybody ?Went awfully quiet didn’t it.

      • mickysavage 2.1.1
        18 April 2013 at 8:52 pm

        Yep. Now is the time for Labour to step up and grab the initiative by promoting progressive policies that present an alternative to the neocon crap we are presently working through.

        Kiwipower was a start …

    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 2.2
      19 April 2013 at 8:16 am

      According to Michael Cullen, the honeymoon was over in 2007:

      http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0703/S00194.htm

      Maybe it is now. But I won’t take the word of people here, who have predicting that “people would wake up” on the hour every hour since 2008.

  3. Norm Kirk 3
    18 April 2013 at 8:31 pm

    Mike, we’re a long-way out from where this race will finish. There will be good polls, bad polls and mediocre polls. Celebrate, by all means, but this result has come from a strategy of doing nothing except watching this Government slowly self-destruct. There are still hard questions to be asked and hard questions to be answered. Policy. Policy. Policy.

    • mickysavage 3.1
      18 April 2013 at 9:08 pm

      Aye Norm.

      The result is good, the best for 6 years but it is a single poll. The power reform announcement today was good but it will have had no effect on the poll.

      The most important thing for Labour (apart from ditching some careerists) is to have a coherent policy platform that will inspire activists to get out and work for a left victory.

      And I agree the poll seems to show signs of National stalling rather than Labour surging.

      • karol 3.1.1
        18 April 2013 at 9:11 pm

        Ooo. Big Norm and Micky S in conversation – I want to eavesdrop.

        Coherent platform and a clear narrative…. anything but a sham “brighter future”.

      • tc 3.1.2
        19 April 2013 at 7:26 am

        Optimist there Mickey with the mallarfia in control I’m hoping for a shonkey lead self destruct campaign and we’ll take it from there.

        NZF/Green/Lab/Mana whatever the mix we need to rid oursleves of the neo lib mantra corrupt NACT regime that’s selling us down the Mighty river..

  4. Rhinocrates 4
    18 April 2013 at 8:39 pm

    My interest is with the Left, not with whatever party is on the ascendant. So a party called “Labour” might have a chance? So what? A party called “Ramesses Niblick the Third, Kerplunk, Kerplunk, Whoops Where’s My Thribble?” might have a chance too (Red Dwarf reference for all my fellow nerds).

    A party called “Labour” might have a tiny boost in one poll. Well whoop-de-fucking-do.

    “I mean I might be, but I mean, really, “David” is just a name, and “Shearer” is also just a name… and um… I mean, I shaved, using a sharpened mango and that’s like shearing… yes, sheep are good, Labour has a place for sheep, and we might shear them and I might have a birth certificate… but that doesn’t mean that I’m anyone… I might be no-one… I might not have a name at all… what was the question? Oh God, I hope I haven’t offended anyone. I mean even fascists… I know… um, I don’t even want to offend them… um”

    Yes, the latest power policy is encouraging.

    However… Chickens, eggs, hatched, etcetera. Lay down that narrative. What is “Labour”? Is it really an alternative? Will it really do what it says?

    • Colonial Viper 4.1
      18 April 2013 at 8:52 pm

      The power policy fills first base with good Left policy. I’m waiting to see what fills second and third base. And as good as this power policy is…it leaves our generation assets in foreign hands.

      • karol 4.1.1
        18 April 2013 at 9:12 pm

        And it doesn’t indicate any empowering of the disconnected, and under-used. That can’t be done with a power policy.

        • Rhinocrates 4.1.1.1
          18 April 2013 at 9:50 pm

          There were eight hundred thousand registered voters who didn’t vote. “Labour” In Name Only will forget them, and even though it will finally realise that it won’t get the Treasury benches because will be “its turn”, it will think that Winston Peters will be its saviour… and history will repeat, and Peters will take the baubles offered by Key, or his most likely successor, Collins, and Goff and King and all the other self-entitled fuckwits will scream, “Whyyyyyy?! We deserved it!!!! It was owed to us!!!1111!!!ELEVEN!!!”

          There are eight hundred thousand who stayed at home, Shearer and the ABC club. They could have bothered to turn up to vote, but they didn’t – they didn’t see any worth in you. Ask yourself about them, not cute little press releases.

      • Bearded Git 4.1.2
        19 April 2013 at 8:02 am

        Not doing things CAN be policy. For instance Labour and the Greens would not screw up the RMA so it will be dysfunctional as is being proposed by the Key Party.

        The RMA changes discussion document has been the subject of 14000 submissions, undoubtedly the vast majority in opposition. One wonders if National will quietly drop this or plough on Titanic-style.

  5. outofbed 5
    18 April 2013 at 8:56 pm

    The trend is looking good
    Can we engineer Shearer to have Laryngitis during the leadership debates?

    • Rhinocrates 5.1
      18 April 2013 at 9:32 pm

      How about just replacement? If anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it’s I might be, then again I might not be, um, I mean I’m open to other possibilities, my name could be David, though I could be Fred Shearer, or… Fred Refrigerator, or Fred Electron Microscope, or maybe even David Spaghetti Bolognese…

      Get rid of him. The man can’t run a bath, let alone a country.

  6. Te Reo Putake 6
    18 April 2013 at 9:19 pm

    Who’s the knucklehead now!?

  7. Pete 7
    18 April 2013 at 9:38 pm

    I think most of us can agree, this is a good week for the left. We need more good weeks.

    • Bill 7.1
      18 April 2013 at 10:36 pm

      So going on a bandwaggon of poll generated optimism…National lose any forthcoming election. And the LPNZ are a component of the next government. But where’s the left? As a person living in NZ these days I’m in a position of heads they win and tails I lose. Used to be in the years of yore that a Labour win was a win for me on some level. Alas, no more…

  8. Mike Smith 8
    18 April 2013 at 9:40 pm

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a definite tightening between National (40.5%, down 3.5%) and Labour (35.5%, up 1%). This is the smallest gap between the two major parties since October 2008 — prior to John Key’s election as Prime Minister.

    “Since John Key became leader of National in November 2006, the National vote has never dipped below 40.5%, and has not been lower since October 2006 (40%) when Don Brash was still the leader of National.

    “Today’s result is a clear boost to Opposition Leader David Shearer and comes as National faces a number of challenges that appear to have dented its support — the axing of 140 jobs by the Department of Conservation, the ongoing Novopay Payroll Issues, the bungled handling of the Kim Dotcom ‘affair’ and serious breaches of privacy by both the Ministry of Education and the Earthquake Commission.”

    • Te Reo Putake 8.1
      18 April 2013 at 9:52 pm

      The RM government confidence rating isn’t pretty reading for National either. A solid 3.5% drop in two weeks. Could it be the constant lying?

      • lprent 8.1.1
        19 April 2013 at 12:04 am

        That the normal bounce range. It is starting to look like Labour may have a trend that may in a few months mean that they exceed where they got to in 2010. Don’t over egg it…

        However National is back on their support slide, and so are all of their potential coalition partners.

  9. North 9
    18 April 2013 at 9:44 pm

    The Ponce cannot be feeling good…….Judy Collins will be variously angry and sort of excited. Most pleasingly the cargo-cultist, furiously clapping eggs on the Tory List backbenches will be feeling just a little bit insecure.

    Especially when they see the Key anointed likes of Wee Simon Ex-Crown-Prosecutor and Heki Pirau Parasite talking broken biscuits and fucking it up spectacularly and The Ponce trying to play Monty Python World Statesman – “relaxed”.

    I mean that joker’s got 50+ million to fall back on. What’ve the dorks and the scrubbers got ? Out on their spongey arses after only two terms. No pensions kids !

    Say “Sayonara Koru Club”, troughers. “The Market” Rules OK.

  10. Blue 10
    18 April 2013 at 9:59 pm

    The lies have caught up with John Key. No one halfway sane could swallow the amount of ‘brain fades’ he’s claimed and people now view him as dishonest.

    But Labour has no reason to cheer. National are down 3.5% and Labour received only 1% of that.

    NZ First seems to be the main beneficiary, up 2%.

    People are still saying that while they’re dissatisfied with Key, Shearer couldn’t lead his way out of a soggy paper bag and they won’t vote for him.

    If this continues, we will have yet another election with a high non-vote and a disappointing Labour vote. It’s not about waiting for National to collapse, it’s about making Labour a party people can confidently vote for again.

  11. North 11
    18 April 2013 at 10:35 pm

    I am guessing completely but I think that specific issues in their too specific detail aren’t really the thing. We’ve all acknowledged the power of the soundbite. What about the “glancebite” ? The person who only glances at a headline, at the TV. What does he/she see ?

    Repeatedly as of late, Key looking like a dodgy care salesman caught out. No nice guy anymore and when the nice guy’s put out there anew, looks and sounds sham, against the cumulation of the increasingly negative “glancebites”. Then we have the nastyish “Knuckleheads” shit. Cumulation on cumulation on cumulation of negative “glancebites”. And surely we can’t count as little the ongoing negative “glancebite” of various of Key’s incompetent ministers. People don’t like pricks who repeatedly talk like they’re “onto-it” when all the evidence points the other way.

    Certainly the wind seems to be changing. And we can’t discount the (“I’m a part of the story”) scum of the MSM. When they scent blood they’ll go for Key and he won’t react well.

    Then…….Shearer ? Bugger !

  12. TruthSeeker 12
    19 April 2013 at 1:01 am

    I’m not at all surprised.

    Give it another 6 months and the Nats will be struggling for 40%.

    Whether this means Shearer is going to be PM in 2014 depends on whether Key sticks it out. At this stage, I am unconvinced that he will.

    But we’ll see. Exciting times ahead!

  13. kiwicommie 13
    19 April 2013 at 2:50 am

    Still another year to go, can’t get too optimistic yet.

  14. Northshoreguynz 14
    19 April 2013 at 6:19 am

    It’s like at the shops. $39.9 sounds sooo much cheaper than $40. Once the Nats hit below 40%, watch the blue fur fly.

    • Matthew Hooton 14.1
      19 April 2013 at 7:24 am

      Yes, a 39.5% poll result would lead to a sense of inevitability of defeat (although I have though defeat inevitable from the night of the 2011 election).
      The other factor would be a series of polls confirming numbers like this. TV3 has a poll this Sunday. Not sure about TVNZ. But, say, 40.5%, 44%, 42%, all in a matter of days, would have a very significant effect on the media narrative.
      The only good news I can see from this poll is that National/NZ First is not an option. That is a worse from where I sit than even Labour/Green – but if the numbers exist for National/NZ First then that is what we will get. (Peters is positioning for it with his spy legislation announcement this week.)

      • Pascal's bookie 14.1.1
        19 April 2013 at 8:07 am

        CB is sunday too.

        “National/NZ First is not an option”

        It’s the narraitive though innit. If this is the poll trend, then the media are going to be looking for what?

        It’s “Lab/Green vs National/NZFirst” from Monday onwards if the trend is confirmed.

      • felix 14.1.2
        19 April 2013 at 8:13 am

        Very good point about NZFirst.

        Is it your opinion that ACT is finished electorally for now? Specifically that National would rather keep Epsom for itself this time?

        • Matthew Hooton 14.1.2.1
          19 April 2013 at 9:06 am

          Yes, I think Act is finished because I don’t think people in Epsom (where I live) will put up with the cuppa nonsense again and won’t follow an instruction from the prime minister this time. Of course, that is what I was also saying in 2010 and then even I went and voted for John Banks, so there is a long way to go.
          But, since then, Banks has moved out of the electorate (first thing he did after the election) there has been the Dotcom affair and he isn’t seen around school fairs and so forth whereas National MPs are. (In fact, the last time I think I saw Banks was at a National Party function.)
          The other factor in Epsom is Labour/Green. Check out http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-12.html
          Paul Goldsmith only missed out by 2,261, despite the voting instruction from the Prime Minister. Even in 2011, had only half of those who voted for the Labour and Green candidates voted for Goldsmith, Banks would have lost and Act would no longer exist.
          So, in a strange way, Act’s continued existence depends on what Labour/Green voters in Epsom decide to do. I would have thought it would it wouldn’t beyond Labour/Green’s ability to distribute voting cards, sort of like they do in Australia, proposing their supporters choose between Labour of Green for the party vote and then vote Goldsmith. This could be done on the Friday before the election.
          The other factor is United Future in Ohariu. Now that Chauvel has gone, Labour has an opportunity to put in a candidate much better suited for that seat. I don’t know Ohariu well, but I suspect a gay corporate lawyer with a Mercedes didn’t quite fit with J’ville in order to maximize his vote.
          Even then, though, there was only 1392 votes in it – see http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-35.html
          In 2014, I expect National will run Katrina Shanks again and I would have thought a strong local Labour candidate (local high school principal or something like that?) would be a shoe-in to beat her and the tax collector.
          So it really is a case of National/NZ First v Labour/Green/Mana, with the latter being more likely to win.

          • Pete 14.1.2.1.1
            19 April 2013 at 9:13 am

            So it really is a case of National/NZ First v Labour/Green/Mana, with the latter being more likely to win.

            I’m a little surprised that you’re arguing against how it stands on iPredict, an analysis tool you have given weight to in the past. At present it is predicting a 52% chance of a National PM post 2014.

            • Matthew Hooton 14.1.2.1.1.1
              19 April 2013 at 9:26 am

              I have seen that, and I am short on National, long on Labour – and have been since late 2011.

          • Te Reo Putake 14.1.2.1.2
            19 April 2013 at 9:14 am

            Crikey, Matthew! Have you considered writing a guest post?

          • geoff 14.1.2.1.3
            19 April 2013 at 9:18 am

            So Matthew, what angle are you going to push on Monday when Kathryn asks you about the Labour/Green electricity policies?

            • Matthew Hooton 14.1.2.1.3.1
              19 April 2013 at 9:32 am

              I have a column in today’s NBR arguing people should now think twice before investing in MRP.
              For Monday, points will probably be something like:
              * overshadowed by texas in terms of immediate public reaction
              * successfully introduced uncertainty into market about MRP float, which is a key Labour/Green objective
              * “cheaper electricity” must surely be popular
              * economically vandalous because, if implemented, it would hurt the Crown balance sheet, the NZX, KiwiSaver funds and the ACC and Cullen funds
              * won’t reduce power prices as claimed unless investment in new generation is cut back
              * probably won’t be implemented by Labour/Green government because of the last two points above

              • geoff …
                19 April 2013 at 11:19 am

                Hopefully Mike will read this and actually put some effort into his responses. Instead of his usual wheezing and puffing into the microphone while he nods in agreement with you.

          • Rogue Trooper 14.1.2.1.4
            19 April 2013 at 2:43 pm

            interesting, for a change

  15. vto 15
    19 April 2013 at 8:22 am

    ha fuckin’ ha.

    bloody lying smart-arse snake oil salesman that John Key has always been.

    In our circles Key is no longer taken credibly by even true-blue supporters who will probably still vote fot the prick next time.

    The wounded is limping down the beach back to his Oamaha pad. Clean up the mess you leave behind Johnny, there’s a good boy. Hope to never come across you again.

    • Colonial Viper 15.1
      19 April 2013 at 8:30 am

      The sound of knives being quietly sharpened in the National Party caucus. You know, just in case.

    • King Kong 15.2
      19 April 2013 at 9:34 am

      Calm down cum sock.

      Until the next polling day you guys are still the losers who Key smote effortlessly in two elections.

      • vto 15.2.1
        19 April 2013 at 9:46 am

        Calm down? You’ll be lucky. The calm has long been shattered by Key’s lies and the duplicitous nature of pretty much every policy implementation he has overseen. There is no calm when this barbaric lot can democracy so their farmers can steal what they couldn’t legitimately obtain, nor accept the failure of their political ideology which leads to 29 men being killed (ask Judge Farish), nor when … on it goes.

        No calmness kong, none. There is too much at stake and the effects of thier policies are so very directly felt in people’s back pockets.

        As for “smote effortlessly in two elections” – ha. Wrong. Try one smoting and one nail-biter, with the next one being Key’s entire career plan failing at the pinnacle – tossed out ingloriously, rejected by the people of NZ because they don’t like him and see him as untrustworthy and a liar. Key will not like it.

        • King Kong 15.2.1.1
          19 April 2013 at 9:50 am

          “Try one smoting and one nail-biter, with the next one being Key’s entire career plan failing at the pinnacle – tossed out ingloriously, rejected by the people of NZ because they don’t like him and see him as untrustworthy and a liar. Key will not like it.”

          Probably not as much as Helen Clark did.

      • Pete 15.2.2
        19 April 2013 at 9:53 am

        That’s like arguing the US has the world’s best rugby team, because they won the gold medal at the last two Olympics that included the sport. Technically they are the reigning Olympic champions, but after some time that doesn’t seem to matter and the potential impact on any future results declines.

        I’d say NZ politics is going through an etch-a-sketch moment. It’s been shaken up and now a completely new image will be drawn in 2014.

        • King Kong 15.2.2.1
          19 April 2013 at 10:02 am

          You analogy sucks because Key got the thumbs up only 18 months ago. Maybe 2014 is his last stand but I wouldn’t count on it. Up against “looney tunes” Norman the Aussie ginga and “what the fuck is he going on about?” Shearer, he couldn’t have weaker opponents.

          • ghostrider888 15.2.2.1.1
            19 April 2013 at 2:45 pm

            temper, temper

          • Pascal's bookie 15.2.2.1.2
            19 April 2013 at 4:09 pm

            “Up against “looney tunes” Norman the Aussie ginga and “what the fuck is he going on about?” Shearer, he couldn’t have weaker opponents.”

            And look how he’s doing.

            Lowest result since he took over the leadership innit? Like your good self, he’s getting angrier and angrier as things don’t go his way. And his sunny disposition is all National have going for them.

            The thing about conviction politicians is that people don’t mind a few flaws, as long as they trust their convictions.

            John Key isn’t a conviction politician though. He’s the ordinary bloke done well that everyone identifies with. Right up until they see another side of him. Once they don’t trust his personality, he’s doomed, because that’s all he’s got politically. His ranting doesn’t make him look like the sensible moderating influence on National anymore, and his lies make him look , funnily enough, like a liar.

            We’ve past Peak Key that’s for sure, and they got the last election by one seat.

            From here on in Labour and the Greens have signaled that they are the govt in waiting. There is a good chance they won’t need NZF.

            The media need a horse race, and it’s been defined. Lab/Gre V Nat/NZFirst.

            If you think the MOM policy is in strife now, wait until it dawns on the media just how much Nat needs Winston. That narrative will be confirmed by a couple of months polling where Nat trails Lab/Gre by more than about 5 points.

            MRP will be the easy float sunshine. It may well be the last. Because beside the NZ First factor, the economic futility of the floats will be laid at the door of the people who float them. And rightly so.

            What you need to do is calm down. Breathe.

            Not be so angry and ugly. learn what the electorate wants, what they are trying to tell you through these polls. No one likes an angry gorilla.

  16. Lionel 16
    19 April 2013 at 8:51 am

    If the trend continues in other polls due out this week will Key desert the sinking ship like the rat he is would,nt put it past him of course got to organise the knighthood first for services to screwing up the country

    • Colonial Viper 16.1
      19 April 2013 at 8:54 am

      Someone will help organise it for him just to get him to go

      • King Kong 16.1.1
        19 April 2013 at 9:48 am

        Terribly weak effort. You are just not up to it. If you want to start destabilising leadership rumours where you freak your opponents into selecting a totally inappropriate loser as leader then you will need to get your wallet out and speak to Mr Hooten.

        Who do you fancy as leader of the Nats facing you in an election? Nick Smith? price to you $400k, David Carter? $350k, Tau Henare? $500k.

        On a side note, I think we should have paid the extra $50k and got Rajen Prasad installed instead of Shearer though it hasn’t turned out badly.

  17. ianmac 17
    19 April 2013 at 8:58 am

    The trend does mean that the population will see that National is not infallible or invincible. The suggestion that Mr Key has feet of clay is rather like what the average 10 year old who starts to see that parents are not gods. The trend is self perpetuating corrosion regardless of the numbers.

  18. Macro 18
    19 April 2013 at 4:28 pm

    The country can no longer afford this shower on the Treasury benches. NZ is almost on its knees, 3 more years and we most certainly would be a basket case (if not already now). It will take years to rebuild the damage wrought by Key and his cronies.