Nats 40.5% in Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 8:20 pm, April 18th, 2013 - 61 comments
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I don’t think this is a rogue poll – and it came before the Powerco announcement! The trend line is certainly clear now and should reassure Eddie. John Key better get his knighthood sorted.

Full New Zealand Voting Results

We’ll have to watch out for the Pink Piranha now – I don’t think Steven Joyce  has got what it takes – he can’t look anyone in the eye.

61 comments on “Nats 40.5% in Roy Morgan ”

  1. Matthew 1

    Waiting for the Herald Digipoll that puts them 5 points higher & gets more attention.

  2. Normal transmission is in the process of being resumed.

    Was knuckleheadgate the tipping point?

    • tc 2.1

      Knucklehead is a massive own goal from the Slippery one and the rhetoric from the shills is wearing thin in swinger land as folk can no longer ignore the fact they’re being conned.

      Teachers, chch residents, regulating away unions/protests/democratically elected bodies, welfare recipients…. is it any wonder Key spoke highly of thatcher

      The Oz media will help as they continue to report the growing migration under the nat’s onto their turf once their election’s over expect more on that issue.

      What he’s done is basically lay down a challenge to the media who should end up by showing NZild who the real knuckleheads are.

      Solid energy anybody ?Went awfully quiet didn’t it.

      • mickysavage 2.1.1

        Yep. Now is the time for Labour to step up and grab the initiative by promoting progressive policies that present an alternative to the neocon crap we are presently working through.

        Kiwipower was a start …

    • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 2.2

      According to Michael Cullen, the honeymoon was over in 2007:

      http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0703/S00194.htm

      Maybe it is now. But I won’t take the word of people here, who have predicting that “people would wake up” on the hour every hour since 2008.

  3. Mike, we’re a long-way out from where this race will finish. There will be good polls, bad polls and mediocre polls. Celebrate, by all means, but this result has come from a strategy of doing nothing except watching this Government slowly self-destruct. There are still hard questions to be asked and hard questions to be answered. Policy. Policy. Policy.

    • Aye Norm.

      The result is good, the best for 6 years but it is a single poll. The power reform announcement today was good but it will have had no effect on the poll.

      The most important thing for Labour (apart from ditching some careerists) is to have a coherent policy platform that will inspire activists to get out and work for a left victory.

      And I agree the poll seems to show signs of National stalling rather than Labour surging.

      • karol 3.1.1

        Ooo. Big Norm and Micky S in conversation – I want to eavesdrop.

        Coherent platform and a clear narrative…. anything but a sham “brighter future”.

      • tc 3.1.2

        Optimist there Mickey with the mallarfia in control I’m hoping for a shonkey lead self destruct campaign and we’ll take it from there.

        NZF/Green/Lab/Mana whatever the mix we need to rid oursleves of the neo lib mantra corrupt NACT regime that’s selling us down the Mighty river..

  4. Rhinocrates 4

    My interest is with the Left, not with whatever party is on the ascendant. So a party called “Labour” might have a chance? So what? A party called “Ramesses Niblick the Third, Kerplunk, Kerplunk, Whoops Where’s My Thribble?” might have a chance too (Red Dwarf reference for all my fellow nerds).

    A party called “Labour” might have a tiny boost in one poll. Well whoop-de-fucking-do.

    “I mean I might be, but I mean, really, “David” is just a name, and “Shearer” is also just a name… and um… I mean, I shaved, using a sharpened mango and that’s like shearing… yes, sheep are good, Labour has a place for sheep, and we might shear them and I might have a birth certificate… but that doesn’t mean that I’m anyone… I might be no-one… I might not have a name at all… what was the question? Oh God, I hope I haven’t offended anyone. I mean even fascists… I know… um, I don’t even want to offend them… um”

    Yes, the latest power policy is encouraging.

    However… Chickens, eggs, hatched, etcetera. Lay down that narrative. What is “Labour”? Is it really an alternative? Will it really do what it says?

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      The power policy fills first base with good Left policy. I’m waiting to see what fills second and third base. And as good as this power policy is…it leaves our generation assets in foreign hands.

      • karol 4.1.1

        And it doesn’t indicate any empowering of the disconnected, and under-used. That can’t be done with a power policy.

        • Rhinocrates 4.1.1.1

          There were eight hundred thousand registered voters who didn’t vote. “Labour” In Name Only will forget them, and even though it will finally realise that it won’t get the Treasury benches because will be “its turn”, it will think that Winston Peters will be its saviour… and history will repeat, and Peters will take the baubles offered by Key, or his most likely successor, Collins, and Goff and King and all the other self-entitled fuckwits will scream, “Whyyyyyy?! We deserved it!!!! It was owed to us!!!1111!!!ELEVEN!!!”

          There are eight hundred thousand who stayed at home, Shearer and the ABC club. They could have bothered to turn up to vote, but they didn’t – they didn’t see any worth in you. Ask yourself about them, not cute little press releases.

      • Bearded Git 4.1.2

        Not doing things CAN be policy. For instance Labour and the Greens would not screw up the RMA so it will be dysfunctional as is being proposed by the Key Party.

        The RMA changes discussion document has been the subject of 14000 submissions, undoubtedly the vast majority in opposition. One wonders if National will quietly drop this or plough on Titanic-style.

  5. outofbed 5

    The trend is looking good
    Can we engineer Shearer to have Laryngitis during the leadership debates?

    • Rhinocrates 5.1

      How about just replacement? If anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it’s I might be, then again I might not be, um, I mean I’m open to other possibilities, my name could be David, though I could be Fred Shearer, or… Fred Refrigerator, or Fred Electron Microscope, or maybe even David Spaghetti Bolognese…

      Get rid of him. The man can’t run a bath, let alone a country.

  6. Te Reo Putake 6

    Who’s the knucklehead now!?

  7. Pete 7

    I think most of us can agree, this is a good week for the left. We need more good weeks.

    • Bill 7.1

      So going on a bandwaggon of poll generated optimism…National lose any forthcoming election. And the LPNZ are a component of the next government. But where’s the left? As a person living in NZ these days I’m in a position of heads they win and tails I lose. Used to be in the years of yore that a Labour win was a win for me on some level. Alas, no more…

  8. Mike Smith 8

    Gary Morgan says:

    “Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a definite tightening between National (40.5%, down 3.5%) and Labour (35.5%, up 1%). This is the smallest gap between the two major parties since October 2008 — prior to John Key’s election as Prime Minister.

    “Since John Key became leader of National in November 2006, the National vote has never dipped below 40.5%, and has not been lower since October 2006 (40%) when Don Brash was still the leader of National.

    “Today’s result is a clear boost to Opposition Leader David Shearer and comes as National faces a number of challenges that appear to have dented its support — the axing of 140 jobs by the Department of Conservation, the ongoing Novopay Payroll Issues, the bungled handling of the Kim Dotcom ‘affair’ and serious breaches of privacy by both the Ministry of Education and the Earthquake Commission.”

    • Te Reo Putake 8.1

      The RM government confidence rating isn’t pretty reading for National either. A solid 3.5% drop in two weeks. Could it be the constant lying?

      • lprent 8.1.1

        That the normal bounce range. It is starting to look like Labour may have a trend that may in a few months mean that they exceed where they got to in 2010. Don’t over egg it…

        However National is back on their support slide, and so are all of their potential coalition partners.

  9. North 9

    The Ponce cannot be feeling good…….Judy Collins will be variously angry and sort of excited. Most pleasingly the cargo-cultist, furiously clapping eggs on the Tory List backbenches will be feeling just a little bit insecure.

    Especially when they see the Key anointed likes of Wee Simon Ex-Crown-Prosecutor and Heki Pirau Parasite talking broken biscuits and fucking it up spectacularly and The Ponce trying to play Monty Python World Statesman – “relaxed”.

    I mean that joker’s got 50+ million to fall back on. What’ve the dorks and the scrubbers got ? Out on their spongey arses after only two terms. No pensions kids !

    Say “Sayonara Koru Club”, troughers. “The Market” Rules OK.

  10. Blue 10

    The lies have caught up with John Key. No one halfway sane could swallow the amount of ‘brain fades’ he’s claimed and people now view him as dishonest.

    But Labour has no reason to cheer. National are down 3.5% and Labour received only 1% of that.

    NZ First seems to be the main beneficiary, up 2%.

    People are still saying that while they’re dissatisfied with Key, Shearer couldn’t lead his way out of a soggy paper bag and they won’t vote for him.

    If this continues, we will have yet another election with a high non-vote and a disappointing Labour vote. It’s not about waiting for National to collapse, it’s about making Labour a party people can confidently vote for again.

  11. North 11

    I am guessing completely but I think that specific issues in their too specific detail aren’t really the thing. We’ve all acknowledged the power of the soundbite. What about the “glancebite” ? The person who only glances at a headline, at the TV. What does he/she see ?

    Repeatedly as of late, Key looking like a dodgy care salesman caught out. No nice guy anymore and when the nice guy’s put out there anew, looks and sounds sham, against the cumulation of the increasingly negative “glancebites”. Then we have the nastyish “Knuckleheads” shit. Cumulation on cumulation on cumulation of negative “glancebites”. And surely we can’t count as little the ongoing negative “glancebite” of various of Key’s incompetent ministers. People don’t like pricks who repeatedly talk like they’re “onto-it” when all the evidence points the other way.

    Certainly the wind seems to be changing. And we can’t discount the (“I’m a part of the story”) scum of the MSM. When they scent blood they’ll go for Key and he won’t react well.

    Then…….Shearer ? Bugger !

  12. TruthSeeker 12

    I’m not at all surprised.

    Give it another 6 months and the Nats will be struggling for 40%.

    Whether this means Shearer is going to be PM in 2014 depends on whether Key sticks it out. At this stage, I am unconvinced that he will.

    But we’ll see. Exciting times ahead!

  13. kiwicommie 13

    Still another year to go, can’t get too optimistic yet.

  14. Northshoreguynz 14

    It’s like at the shops. $39.9 sounds sooo much cheaper than $40. Once the Nats hit below 40%, watch the blue fur fly.

    • Matthew Hooton 14.1

      Yes, a 39.5% poll result would lead to a sense of inevitability of defeat (although I have though defeat inevitable from the night of the 2011 election).
      The other factor would be a series of polls confirming numbers like this. TV3 has a poll this Sunday. Not sure about TVNZ. But, say, 40.5%, 44%, 42%, all in a matter of days, would have a very significant effect on the media narrative.
      The only good news I can see from this poll is that National/NZ First is not an option. That is a worse from where I sit than even Labour/Green – but if the numbers exist for National/NZ First then that is what we will get. (Peters is positioning for it with his spy legislation announcement this week.)

      • Pascal's bookie 14.1.1

        CB is sunday too.

        “National/NZ First is not an option”

        It’s the narraitive though innit. If this is the poll trend, then the media are going to be looking for what?

        It’s “Lab/Green vs National/NZFirst” from Monday onwards if the trend is confirmed.

      • felix 14.1.2

        Very good point about NZFirst.

        Is it your opinion that ACT is finished electorally for now? Specifically that National would rather keep Epsom for itself this time?

        • Matthew Hooton 14.1.2.1

          Yes, I think Act is finished because I don’t think people in Epsom (where I live) will put up with the cuppa nonsense again and won’t follow an instruction from the prime minister this time. Of course, that is what I was also saying in 2010 and then even I went and voted for John Banks, so there is a long way to go.
          But, since then, Banks has moved out of the electorate (first thing he did after the election) there has been the Dotcom affair and he isn’t seen around school fairs and so forth whereas National MPs are. (In fact, the last time I think I saw Banks was at a National Party function.)
          The other factor in Epsom is Labour/Green. Check out http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-12.html
          Paul Goldsmith only missed out by 2,261, despite the voting instruction from the Prime Minister. Even in 2011, had only half of those who voted for the Labour and Green candidates voted for Goldsmith, Banks would have lost and Act would no longer exist.
          So, in a strange way, Act’s continued existence depends on what Labour/Green voters in Epsom decide to do. I would have thought it would it wouldn’t beyond Labour/Green’s ability to distribute voting cards, sort of like they do in Australia, proposing their supporters choose between Labour of Green for the party vote and then vote Goldsmith. This could be done on the Friday before the election.
          The other factor is United Future in Ohariu. Now that Chauvel has gone, Labour has an opportunity to put in a candidate much better suited for that seat. I don’t know Ohariu well, but I suspect a gay corporate lawyer with a Mercedes didn’t quite fit with J’ville in order to maximize his vote.
          Even then, though, there was only 1392 votes in it – see http://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-35.html
          In 2014, I expect National will run Katrina Shanks again and I would have thought a strong local Labour candidate (local high school principal or something like that?) would be a shoe-in to beat her and the tax collector.
          So it really is a case of National/NZ First v Labour/Green/Mana, with the latter being more likely to win.

          • Pete 14.1.2.1.1

            So it really is a case of National/NZ First v Labour/Green/Mana, with the latter being more likely to win.

            I’m a little surprised that you’re arguing against how it stands on iPredict, an analysis tool you have given weight to in the past. At present it is predicting a 52% chance of a National PM post 2014.

            • Matthew Hooton 14.1.2.1.1.1

              I have seen that, and I am short on National, long on Labour – and have been since late 2011.

          • Te Reo Putake 14.1.2.1.2

            Crikey, Matthew! Have you considered writing a guest post?

          • geoff 14.1.2.1.3

            So Matthew, what angle are you going to push on Monday when Kathryn asks you about the Labour/Green electricity policies?

            • Matthew Hooton 14.1.2.1.3.1

              I have a column in today’s NBR arguing people should now think twice before investing in MRP.
              For Monday, points will probably be something like:
              * overshadowed by texas in terms of immediate public reaction
              * successfully introduced uncertainty into market about MRP float, which is a key Labour/Green objective
              * “cheaper electricity” must surely be popular
              * economically vandalous because, if implemented, it would hurt the Crown balance sheet, the NZX, KiwiSaver funds and the ACC and Cullen funds
              * won’t reduce power prices as claimed unless investment in new generation is cut back
              * probably won’t be implemented by Labour/Green government because of the last two points above

              • geoff

                Hopefully Mike will read this and actually put some effort into his responses. Instead of his usual wheezing and puffing into the microphone while he nods in agreement with you.

          • Rogue Trooper 14.1.2.1.4

            interesting, for a change

  15. vto 15

    ha fuckin’ ha.

    bloody lying smart-arse snake oil salesman that John Key has always been.

    In our circles Key is no longer taken credibly by even true-blue supporters who will probably still vote fot the prick next time.

    The wounded is limping down the beach back to his Oamaha pad. Clean up the mess you leave behind Johnny, there’s a good boy. Hope to never come across you again.

    • Colonial Viper 15.1

      The sound of knives being quietly sharpened in the National Party caucus. You know, just in case.

    • King Kong 15.2

      Calm down cum sock.

      Until the next polling day you guys are still the losers who Key smote effortlessly in two elections.

      • vto 15.2.1

        Calm down? You’ll be lucky. The calm has long been shattered by Key’s lies and the duplicitous nature of pretty much every policy implementation he has overseen. There is no calm when this barbaric lot can democracy so their farmers can steal what they couldn’t legitimately obtain, nor accept the failure of their political ideology which leads to 29 men being killed (ask Judge Farish), nor when … on it goes.

        No calmness kong, none. There is too much at stake and the effects of thier policies are so very directly felt in people’s back pockets.

        As for “smote effortlessly in two elections” – ha. Wrong. Try one smoting and one nail-biter, with the next one being Key’s entire career plan failing at the pinnacle – tossed out ingloriously, rejected by the people of NZ because they don’t like him and see him as untrustworthy and a liar. Key will not like it.

        • King Kong 15.2.1.1

          “Try one smoting and one nail-biter, with the next one being Key’s entire career plan failing at the pinnacle – tossed out ingloriously, rejected by the people of NZ because they don’t like him and see him as untrustworthy and a liar. Key will not like it.”

          Probably not as much as Helen Clark did.

      • Pete 15.2.2

        That’s like arguing the US has the world’s best rugby team, because they won the gold medal at the last two Olympics that included the sport. Technically they are the reigning Olympic champions, but after some time that doesn’t seem to matter and the potential impact on any future results declines.

        I’d say NZ politics is going through an etch-a-sketch moment. It’s been shaken up and now a completely new image will be drawn in 2014.

        • King Kong 15.2.2.1

          You analogy sucks because Key got the thumbs up only 18 months ago. Maybe 2014 is his last stand but I wouldn’t count on it. Up against “looney tunes” Norman the Aussie ginga and “what the fuck is he going on about?” Shearer, he couldn’t have weaker opponents.

          • ghostrider888 15.2.2.1.1

            temper, temper

          • Pascal's bookie 15.2.2.1.2

            “Up against “looney tunes” Norman the Aussie ginga and “what the fuck is he going on about?” Shearer, he couldn’t have weaker opponents.”

            And look how he’s doing.

            Lowest result since he took over the leadership innit? Like your good self, he’s getting angrier and angrier as things don’t go his way. And his sunny disposition is all National have going for them.

            The thing about conviction politicians is that people don’t mind a few flaws, as long as they trust their convictions.

            John Key isn’t a conviction politician though. He’s the ordinary bloke done well that everyone identifies with. Right up until they see another side of him. Once they don’t trust his personality, he’s doomed, because that’s all he’s got politically. His ranting doesn’t make him look like the sensible moderating influence on National anymore, and his lies make him look , funnily enough, like a liar.

            We’ve past Peak Key that’s for sure, and they got the last election by one seat.

            From here on in Labour and the Greens have signaled that they are the govt in waiting. There is a good chance they won’t need NZF.

            The media need a horse race, and it’s been defined. Lab/Gre V Nat/NZFirst.

            If you think the MOM policy is in strife now, wait until it dawns on the media just how much Nat needs Winston. That narrative will be confirmed by a couple of months polling where Nat trails Lab/Gre by more than about 5 points.

            MRP will be the easy float sunshine. It may well be the last. Because beside the NZ First factor, the economic futility of the floats will be laid at the door of the people who float them. And rightly so.

            What you need to do is calm down. Breathe.

            Not be so angry and ugly. learn what the electorate wants, what they are trying to tell you through these polls. No one likes an angry gorilla.

  16. Lionel 16

    If the trend continues in other polls due out this week will Key desert the sinking ship like the rat he is would,nt put it past him of course got to organise the knighthood first for services to screwing up the country

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      Someone will help organise it for him just to get him to go

      • King Kong 16.1.1

        Terribly weak effort. You are just not up to it. If you want to start destabilising leadership rumours where you freak your opponents into selecting a totally inappropriate loser as leader then you will need to get your wallet out and speak to Mr Hooten.

        Who do you fancy as leader of the Nats facing you in an election? Nick Smith? price to you $400k, David Carter? $350k, Tau Henare? $500k.

        On a side note, I think we should have paid the extra $50k and got Rajen Prasad installed instead of Shearer though it hasn’t turned out badly.

  17. ianmac 17

    The trend does mean that the population will see that National is not infallible or invincible. The suggestion that Mr Key has feet of clay is rather like what the average 10 year old who starts to see that parents are not gods. The trend is self perpetuating corrosion regardless of the numbers.

  18. Macro 18

    The country can no longer afford this shower on the Treasury benches. NZ is almost on its knees, 3 more years and we most certainly would be a basket case (if not already now). It will take years to rebuild the damage wrought by Key and his cronies.

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    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

    Open access notables Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
    4 days ago
  • We're back again! Join us for the weekly Hoon on YouTube Live

    Photo by Gabriel Crismariu on UnsplashWe’re back again after our mid-winter break. We’re still with the ‘new’ day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when we have our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Gut Reactions.

    Trump Writes His Own Story: Would the “mainstream” media even try to reflect the horrified reaction of the MAGA crowd to the pop-pop-pop of the would-be assassin’s rifle, and Trump going down? Could it even grasp the sheer elation of the rally-goers seeing their champion rise up and punch the air, still alive, ...
    4 days ago
  • Dodging Bullets.

    Fight! Fight! Fight! Had the assassin’s bullet found its mark and killed Donald Trump, America’s descent into widespread and murderous violence – possibly spiralling-down into civil war – would have been immediate and quite possibly irreparable. The American Republic, upon whose survival liberty and democracy continue to depend, is certainly not ...
    4 days ago
  • 'Corruption First' Strikes Again

    There comes a point in all our lives when we must stop to say, “Enough is enough. We know what’s happening. We are not as stupid or as ignorant as you believe us to be. And making policies that kill or harm our people is not acceptable, Ministers.”Plausible deniability has ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Thursday, July 18

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:The inside stories of KiwiRail’s iRex debacle, Westport’s perma-delayed flood scheme and Christchurch’s post-quake sewer rebuild, which assumed no population growth, show just how deeply sceptical senior officials in Treasury, the Ministry of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • What's that Jack Black?

    Ah-rah, deeSoo-guh-goo-gee-goo-geeGoo-guh fli-goo gee-gooGuh fli-goo, ga-goo-buh-deeOoh, guh-goo-beeOoh-guh-guh-bee-guh-guh-beeFli-goo gee-gooA-fliguh woo-wa mama Lucifer!I’m about ready to move on, how about you?Not from the shooting, that’s bad and we definitely shouldn’t have that. But the rehabilitation of Donald J Trump? The deification of Saint Donald? As the Great Unifier?Gimme a bucket.https://yellowscene.com/2024/04/07/trump-as-jesus/Just to re-iterate, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • June 2024: Earth’s 13th-consecutive warmest month on record

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson June 2024 was Earth’s warmest June since global record-keeping began in 1850 and was the planet’s 13th consecutive warmest month on record, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported July 12. As opposed to being focused in ...
    4 days ago
  • Connecting the dots and filling the gaps in our bike network

    This is a guest post by Shaun Baker on the importance of filling the gaps in our cycling networks. It originally appeared on his blog Multimodal Adventures, and is re-posted here with kind permission. In our towns and cities in Aotearoa New Zealand, there are areas in our cycling networks ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    4 days ago
  • Webworm Down Under Photos!

    Hi,I wanted to share a few thoughts and photos from the Webworm popup and Tickled screening we held in Auckland, New Zealand last weekend.In short — it was a blast. I mean, I had a blast and I hope any of you that came also had a blast.An old friend ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Thursday, July 18

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 6:30 am on Thursday, July 18 are:News: Christchurch's sewer systems block further housing developments RNZ’s Niva ChittockAnalysis: Interislander: Treasury, MoT officials' mistrust of KiwiRail led ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 18

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 18, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Verbatim: Climate Change Minister Simon Watts held a news conference in Auckland to release the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan, including ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The politics of managed retreat

    Climate change deniers are now challenging the Government over a key climate change adaptation policy. That begs the question of whether New Zealand First will then support Government moves to implement processes to deal with a managed retreat for properties in danger of flooding because of sea level rise and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Some changes are coming

    Warm welcome again to those who are here. The Mountain Tui substack was officially started on the 2nd of July. I wrote about what led me here on this post. Since then, it’s been a learning to navigate the platform, get to meet those in the community, and basically be ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • About fucking time

    The US Supreme Court has been rogue for years, with openly corrupt judges making the law up as they go to suit themselves, their billionaire buyers, and the Republican Party. But now, in the wake of them granting a licence for tyranny, President Biden is actually going to try and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: False accounting and wishful thinking

    National released their draft 2026-2030 Emissions Reduction Plan today. The plan is required under the Zero Carbon Act, and must set out policies and strategies to meet the relevant emissions budget. Having cancelled all Labour's actually effective climate change policies and crashed the carbon price, National was always going to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • The Enemies Of Sunshine And Space.

    Our Houses? The Urban Density debate is a horrible combination of intergenerational avarice and envy, fuelled by the grim certainty that none of the generations coming up after them will ever have it as good as the Boomers. To say that this situation rankles among those born after 1965 is to ...
    5 days ago
  • Still the 5 Eyes Achilles Heel?

    The National Cyber Security Centre (NZSC), a unit in the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) dedicated to cyber-security, has released a Review of its response to the 2021 email hacking of NZ members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC, … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Britain's Devastating Electoral Slip.

    Slip-Sliding Away: Labour may now enjoy a dominant position in Britain’s political landscape, but only by virtue of not being swallowed by it.THE BRITISH LABOUR PARTY’S “landslide victory” is nothing of the sort. As most people understand the term, a landslide election victory is one in which the incumbent government, or ...
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on why right wingers think all governments (including their own) are incompetent

    Since open denial of climate change is no longer a viable political option, denial now comes in disguise. The release this week of the coalition government’s ‘draft emissions reductions plan” shows that the Luxon government is refusing to see the need to cut emissions at source. Instead, it proposes to ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Wednesday, July 17

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy this morning are:Chris Penk is set to roll back building standards for insulation that had only just been put in place, and which had been estimated to save 40% from power costs, after builders ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Open Letter to Pharmac

    All this talk of getting oldIt's getting me down, my loveLike a cat in a bag, waiting to drownThis time I'm coming downAnd I hope you're thinking of meAs you lay down on your sideNow the drugs don't workThey just make you worse but I know I'll see your face ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A blanket of misinformation

    Two old sayings have been on my mind lately. The first is: “The pen is mightier than the sword”, describing the power of language and communication to help or to harm. The other, which captures the speed with which falsehoods can become ingrained and hard to undo, is: “A lie can ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 17

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day to 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 17 are:Scoop: Government considers rolling back home insulation standards RNZ’s Eloise GibsonNews: Government plans tree-planting frenzy as report shows NZ no longer ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 17

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Wednesday, July 17 , the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:Simon Watts released the Government’s draft Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), which included proposed changes to the Emissions Trading Scheme ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • “Shhhh” – National's 3 Waters is loaded with higher costs and lays a path to ...

    This is a long, possibly technical, but very, very important read. I encourage you to take the time and spread your awareness.IntroductionIn 2022, then Labour Party Prime Minister Jacinda Adern expended significant political capital to protect New Zealand’s water assets from privatisation. She lost that battle, and Labour and the ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Plugging a video channel: Dr Gilbz

    Dr. Ella Gilbert is a climate scientist and presenter with a PhD in Antarctic climate change, working at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). Her background is in atmospheric sciences and she's especially interested in the physical mechanisms of climate change, clouds, and almost anything polar. She is passionate about communicating climate ...
    6 days ago
  • Some “scrutiny” again

    Back in 2022, in its Open Government Partnership National Action Plan, the government promised to strengthen scrutiny of Official Information Act exemption clauses in legislation. Since then they've run a secret "consultation" on how to do that, with their preferred outcome being that agencies will consult the Ministry of Justice ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Crashing New Zealand's health system is not the way to prosperity, Prime Minister

    Another day, and yet another piece of bad news for New Zealand’s health system. Reports have come out that General Practitioners (GP) may have to close doors, or increase patient fees to survive. The so-called ‘capitation’ funding review, which supports GP practices to survive, is under way, and primary care ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Closer Than You Think: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.

    Redefining Our Terms: “When an angry majority is demanding change, defending the status-quo is an extremist position.”“WHAT’S THIS?”, asked Laurie, eyeing suspiciously the two glasses of red wine deposited in front of him.“A nice drop of red. I thought you’d be keen to celebrate the French Far-Right’s victory with the ...
    6 days ago
  • Come on Darleen.

    Good morning all, time for a return to things domestic. After elections in the UK and France, Luxon gatecrashing Nato, and the attempted shooting of Trump, it’s probably about time we re-focus on local politics.Unless of course you’re Christopher Luxon and you’re so exhausted from all your schmoozing in Washington ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • How the Northwest was lost and may be won

    This is a guest post by Darren Davis. It originally appeared on his excellent blog, Adventures in Transitland, which we encourage you to check out. It is shared by kind permission. The Northwest has always been Auckland’s public transport Cinderella, rarely invited to the public funding ball. How did ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Tuesday July 16

    Luxon has told a Financial Times’ correspondent he would openly call out China’s spying in future and does not fear economic retaliation from Aotearoa’s largest trading partner.File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Tuesday, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 16

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 16 are:PM Christopher Luxon has given a very hawkish interview to the Financial Times-$$$ correspondent in Washington, Demetri Sevastopulu, saying ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 16

    Photo by Ryunosuke Kikuno on UnsplashTL;DR: The top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day to 6:00 am are:BNZ released its Performance of Services Index for June, finding that services sector is at its lowest level of activity ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • The second crisis; assumption was the mother

    Late on the night of July 16, 1984, while four National Cabinet Ministers were meeting in the Beehive office of Deputy Prime Minister Jim McLay, plotting the ultimate downfall of outgoing Prime Minister Sir Robert Muldoon, another crisis was building up in another part of the capital. The United States ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • Can we air condition our way out of extreme heat?

    This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Air conditioning was initially a symbol of comfort and wealth, enjoyed by the wealthy in theaters and upscale homes. Over time, as technology advanced and costs decreased, air conditioning became more accessible to the general public. With global warming, though, ...
    7 days ago
  • Review: The Zimiamvian Trilogy, by E.R. Eddison (1935-1958)

    I have reviewed some fairly obscure stuff on this blog. Nineteenth century New Zealand speculative fiction. Forgotten Tolkien adaptations. George MacDonald and William Morris. Last month I took a look at The Worm Ouroboros (1922), by E.R. Eddison, which while not strictly obscure, is also not overly inviting to many ...
    7 days ago
  • Media Link: AVFA on the Trump assassination attempt.

    In this episode of “A View from Afar” Selwyn Manning and I discuss the attempt on Donald Trump’s life and its implications for the US elections. The political darkness grows. ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago
  • Law & Order: National Party 1, Police 0, Public -1

    What happened?Media is reporting that police have lost in their pay dispute with the Coalition Government.Some of you might remember that the police rejected Labour’s previous offer in September, 2023, possibly looking forward to be taken care of by the self-touted ‘Party of Law and Order’ - National.If you look ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    7 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the Trump shooting and a potential hike in fees for visiting the doctor

    Having watched Donald Trump systematically exploit social grievances, urge people not to accept his election loss and incite his followers to violent insurrection… it is a bit hard to swallow the media descriptions over the past 24 hours of Trump being a “victim” of violence. More like a case of ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Monday July 15

    The exploitation of workers on the national fibre broadband rollout highlights once again the dark underbelly of our ‘churn and burn’ economy. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:An extraordinary Steve Kilgallon investigation into ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 15

    Photo by Jessica Loaiza on UnsplashTL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last three days to 9:00 am on Monday, July 15 are:Investigation: Immigration NZ refused to prosecute an alleged exploiter despite a mountain of evidence - ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • City Centre Rebuild: How Soon Is Now?

    Patrick Reynolds is deputy chair of the City Centre Advisory Panel and a director of Greater Auckland There is ongoing angst about construction disruption in the city centre. And fair enough: it’s very tough, CRL and other construction has been going on for a very long time. Like the pandemic, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    1 week ago
  • Peril, dismay, resolution

    This afternoon we rolled into Budapest to bring to a close our ride across Europe. We did 144 km yesterday, severe heat messages coming in from the weather app as we bounced along unformed Hungarian back roads and a road strip strewn with fallen trees from an overnight tornado. Somewhere ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Bullet the Blue Sky

    In the locust windComes a rattle and humJacob wrestled the angelAnd the angel was overcomeYou plant a demon seedYou raise a flower of fireWe see them burnin' crossesSee the flames, higher and higherBullet the blue skyBullet the blue skyThe indelible images, the soundtrack of America. Guns, assassinations, where-were-you-when moments attached ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 15

    TL;DR: The top six announcements, rulings, reports, surveys, statistics and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the three days to 6:00 am on Monday, July 23 are:University of Auckland researcher Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy published an analysis of the impact of Auckland's 2016 zoning reforms.BNZ's latest Performance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s diary for the week to July 23 and beyond

    TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to July 23 include:PM Christopher Luxon has returned from a trip to the United States and may hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4:00 pm today.The BusinessNZ-BNZ PSI survey results for June will be released this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Was The Assassination Attempt Fake?

    Hi,It’s in incredible photo, and we’re going to be talking about it for a long time:Trump, triumphantly raising his hand in the air after being shot. Photo credit: Evan VucciYou can watch what happened on YouTube in real time, as a 20-year-old from Pennsylvania lets off a series of gunshots ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • 40 years ago, inside the crisis that made modern NZ

    It had rained all day in Auckland, and the Metro Theatre in Mangere was steamed up inside as more and more people arrived to celebrate what had once seemed impossible. Sir Robert Muldoon had lost the 1984 election. “Piggy” Muldoon was no more. Such was the desire to get rid ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago

  • Minister to speak at Australian Space Forum

    Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum.  While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation.  “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan.  “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government launches Military Style Academy Pilot

    The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Nine priority bridge replacements to get underway

    The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Update on global IT outage

    Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand, Japan renew Pacific partnership

    New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.    “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New infrastructure energises BOP forestry towns

    New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • 'Pacific Futures'

    President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests.    Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone.    Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Delivering 24 hour pothole repairs

    Kiwis and freight operators will benefit from the Coalition Government delivering on its commitment to introduce targets that will ensure a greater number of potholes on our state highways are identified and fixed within 24 hours, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Increasing productivity to help rebuild our economy is a key ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Peer Support Specialists rolled out in hospitals

    Five hospitals have been selected to trial a new mental health and addiction peer support service in their emergency departments as part of the Government’s commitment to increase access to mental health and addiction support for New Zealanders, says Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey.  “Peer Support Specialists in EDs will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Consultation opens for the Emissions Reduction Plan

    The Government’s draft Emissions Reduction Plan shows we can stay within the limits of the first two emissions budgets while growing the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “This draft Emissions Reduction Plan shows that with effective climate change policies we can both grow the economy and deliver our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Benefit stats highlight need for welfare reset

    The coalition Government is providing extra support for job seekers to ensure as many Kiwis as possible are in work or preparing for work, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “While today’s quarterly data showing a rise in the number of people on Jobseeker benefits has been long ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • School attendance continues to increase

    Provisional school attendance data for Term 2 2024 released today has shown more students are back in class compared to last year, with 53.1 per cent of students regularly attending, compared with 47 per cent in Term 2 2023, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. “The Government has prioritised student ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • $22.7m of West Coast resilience projects underway

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news of progress being made by the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) on the first of several crucial resilience projects underway on the South Island’s West Coast.“State highways across the West Coast are critical lifelines for communities throughout the region, including for freight and tourism. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Migrant school leavers to get part-time work rights

    The coalition Government is providing migrant school leavers with greater opportunities, by increasing access to part-time work rights for those awaiting the outcome of a family residence application, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford has announced.  “Many young people who are part of a family residence application process are unable to work. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Funding to support use of NZ Sign Language

    Seven projects have received government funding totalling nearly $250,000 to maintain and promote the use of New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL). Initiatives that received an NZSL Board Community Grants this year include camps that support the use of NZSL through physical and sensory activities, and clubs where Deaf people and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Inflation data shows progress in economic recovery

    Today’s Consumer Price Index data which has inflation at 3.3 per cent for the year to July 2024, shows we are turning our economy around and winning the fight against rampant inflation, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  “While today’s data will be welcome news for Kiwis, I know many New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Experts to advise Minister on Oranga Tamariki

    The Oranga Tamariki Ministerial Advisory Board has been re-established by the Minister for Children, Karen Chhour. “I look forward to working with the new board to continue to ensure Oranga Tamariki and the care and protection system, are entirely child centric,” Minister Chhour says. “The board will provide independent advice ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Expectations set for improved medicines access

    Associate Health Minister David Seymour says he has set clear expectations for Pharmac around delivering the medicines and medical technology that Kiwis need.  “For many New Zealanders, funding for pharmaceuticals is life or death, or the difference between a life of pain and suffering or living freely. New cancer medicines ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Regional Development Minister to host summits

    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones will hold a series of nationwide summits to discuss regional priorities, aspirations and opportunities, with the first kicking off in Nelson on August 12. The 15 summits will facilitate conversations about progressing regional economic growth and opportunities to drive productivity, prosperity and resilience through the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government delivers new school for Rolleston

    The Coalition Government is addressing growing demands on Canterbury’s school network, by delivering a new primary school in Rolleston, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. Within Budget 24’s $400 million investment into school property growth, construction will begin on a new primary school (years 1-8) in Selwyn, Canterbury.  Rolleston South Primary ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New speed camera signs to improve safety

    The Government is welcoming the rollout of new speed camera signs for fixed speed cameras to encourage drivers to check their speeds, improving road safety and avoiding costly speeding tickets, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Providing Kiwis with an opportunity to check their speed and slow down in high crash areas ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ, Korea strengthen relationship

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