Open mike 01/12/2019

118 comments on “Open mike 01/12/2019 ”

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1. Ad 1

   1 December 2019 at 7:34 am

   Good to see UK Labour spinning this latest terror attack against Conservative police number cuts and poor terrorism control.

   That's good for a 1% shift.

   Keep going you've got 12 days to get 10 points.
   • Adrian Thornton 1.1

     1 December 2019 at 8:24 am

     Yep +1 to that.
   • joe90 1.2

     1 December 2019 at 8:54 am

     Surely there's mileage in Polish immigrant subdues murderous London terrorist with narwhal tusk.
     • UncookedSelachimorpha 1.2.1

       1 December 2019 at 5:15 pm

       Apparently not!

       Daily Mail exclusive reveals violent immigrant used terror panic to steal valuable ivory narwhal tusk
   • Bearded Git 1.3

     1 December 2019 at 1:36 pm

     12 days to get 5 points….the Libdems and SNP are certain to go with Labour
2. Kevin 2

   1 December 2019 at 7:37 am

   I wonder how many of those middle class, anti-vaccination, 4×4 driving parents who get their medical advice from Facebook are taking note of this on-going measles tragedy in Samoa?

   https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/117844758/on-the-deserted-streets-of-apia-a-nation-searches-for-salvation-from-a-deadly-measles-epidemic
   • dv 2.1

     1 December 2019 at 8:27 am

     I thought the comment by the PM? of Samoa that anti vaxers should be put in prison was a good idea.
     • Climaction 2.1.1

       1 December 2019 at 9:15 am

       Oh no, not at all. Apparently being called aand or treated like a criminal for causing preventable deaths is only for politicians and doctors. Not non-medically trained facebook Karen’s.
     • weka 2.1.2

       1 December 2019 at 10:30 am

       The problem with the anti-anti vax position is twofold.

       One is that telling people with a very strong ideological position that they are scum and should be in prison won't change their minds. The people we should be working on are those that are about to be radicalised to the anti-vax, scientifically illiterate part of the community. There are lots of people concerned about vaccination issues who aren't there yet, but creating social ostracisation isn't going to pull them into better critical thinking.

       The other is that low vaccination rates in NZ are largely to do with poor management of public health. The number of people who choose not to vaccination is still relatively small, and the MoH acknowledges that they on their own wouldn't be an issue. A bigger problem, and I'm guessing way more relevant to Samoa, is the lack of access to primary health care including vaccinations (think low income families who travel back to the islands). That's on successive governments and Health spend although another guess is that it gets worse under National.

       People who want to blame anti-vaxers for what is happening in Samoa are showing a similar lack of knowledge and critical thinking as the anti-vaxers. What I don't understand is why the people so upset about communicable disease outbreaks aren't agitating for strategies like quarantining, or restricting travel. I guess we don't want to upset people's lives. I also didn't hear a lot of agitation for financial and medical assistance before the outbreak in Samoa, but I guess if we had that kind of intention we'd be solving the access issues in NZ already.
       • joe90 2.1.2.1

         1 December 2019 at 11:23 am

         One is that telling people with a very strong ideological position that they are scum and should be in prison won't change their minds.

         I don't want to change peoples minds. I want people to be criminally sanctioned if they persist in undermining public health initiatives.

         People who want to blame anti-vaxers for what is happening in Samoa are showing a similar lack of knowledge and critical thinking as the anti-vaxers.

         Yeah, people who call out this privileged, scientifically illiterate fool are just like her.

         /

         After 32 measles deaths, Samoa has brought in compulsory vaccination and warned anti-vaxxers but a prominent rugby league WAG has defiantly dubbed the country "NaziSamoa" on Instagram

         […]

         Samoa's state of emergency, declared last week, has seen children banned from public gatherings.

         But the mandate for compulsory vaccination of all children and adults has met resistance from anti-vaxxers, notably Taylor Winterstein.

         

         Taylor and Frank Winterstein have two children. Photo / Instagram

         The WAG and mother-of-two runs A$200-a-head ($211) workshops on the dangers of vaccinations and has nearly 25,000 Instagram followers, reports news.com.au.

         The wife of Samoan international and Penrith second rower, Frank Winterstein, she has likened the vaccination mandate to Nazi Germany, and reposted her opinion again following the child deaths.

         https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12288666
         • weka 2.1.2.1.1

           1 December 2019 at 11:55 am

           How will criminally sanctioning Winterstein increase vaccination rates?
           • joe90 2.1.2.1.1.1

             1 December 2019 at 1:06 pm

             If you or I attempted to use social media to offer unqualified financial advice we'd be sanctioned because of any harm we may do.

             The woman is using social media to not only offer, but to monetise insidious, unqualified advice that undermines public health initiatives.

             Sanctioning her would prevent her from doing any harm.
             • weka …

               1 December 2019 at 1:55 pm

               there are all sorts of problems with what she is doing, and all sorts of problems with establishing law that would allow her to be prosecuted.

               Doesn't answer my question though. How will criminally sanctioning Winterstein increase vaccination rates? Please talk me through how you see that working. Because I think that that idea is more about lashing out rather than addressing the reasons why the vax rate sometimes isn't high enough in NZ.
               • McFlock …

                 1 December 2019 at 2:53 pm

                 Seems to me that if we start charging people who disseminate incorrect and dangerous medical advice (especially for a profit), fewer people will disseminate incorrect and dangerous medical advice. Which will mean fewer parents acting on inaccurate and dangerous medical advice, and therefore more vaccinations.
                 • weka …

                   1 December 2019 at 3:09 pm

                   nice theory.

                   Two points. Afaik the main problem with vaccination rates in NZ is poor access. The number people choosing to not vaccinated is less of an issue.

                   The people who choose not to vaccinate will still have social media and conversations at playgroup, even if people like Winterstein are silenced. That part of the culture doesn't respond well to ostracisation, ridicule, and authority. What you are suggesting is more likely to lead to radicalisation into full blown anti-vaxer (I know this part of the culture pretty well).

                   Better approach imo is this: Govt sorts out the access issues, using carrots not sticks. Govt also runs some kind of science literacy campaign, designed in such a way to reach the alternative part of the culture.

                   I also think that letting people make choices about one vaccine at a time, better adverse reporting processess, and community engagement would go a really long way.
                   • bwaghorn …

                     1 December 2019 at 4:33 pm

                     What access issues . Doctors are free for kids

                     Vaccines are free for kids .

                     All that is required is to be bothered to get off your arse and take them .

                     Oh and ignore moron antivaxxers and religious fools.
                   • weka []

                     1 December 2019 at 4:42 pm

                     In addition to people choosing to not vaccinate intentionally there is a cohort of people that would vaccinate if they had access. This is a well known issue in public health. Barriers to access might be things like lack of transport, cultural safety, time off work, lack of knowledge about the value of vaccines and so on. These generally fit into the larger issue of access to health care generally for poor and marginalised people in the community.
       • A 2.1.2.2

         1 December 2019 at 1:44 pm

         There are more than two choices. A sensible one is to ensure kids basic vaccinations are covered, spacing them out to give their little bodies more time to recover + skip the newer ones like HPV.

         Every vaccine is a separate choice and needs to be considered this way…freaking heck this is NZ…unvaccinated children are one rusty nail away from disaster. But likewise the unmitigated push for increased vaccine use is highly debatable especially when the studies concluding safety are all funded in some way by big pharma.
         • Incognito 2.1.2.2.1

           1 December 2019 at 1:54 pm

           The HPV vaccine is not given to very young children.

           Anyway, why do you suggest skipping it? What’s your rationale for this?
         • weka 2.1.2.2.2

           1 December 2019 at 2:03 pm

           this is close to my position too.

           The polarisation of the debate is hampering us resolving the issue (might as well name the trolling/astroturfing that happens in vax debates online too). To use your example, some parents are going to choose to vaccinate if they feel better about the schedule. Polarisation is preventing that issue being resolved.

           The tendency of some progressives to go proto-fascist over this is disturbing, as is the moral outrage leading to ignoring the bigger issue.

           When we have access to good health care including vaccinations for all NZers, then we can see if the anti-vaxers, or people who choose to not vaccinate, are still a problem. Afaik health authorities see the main issue as being one of access.
           • McFlock 2.1.2.2.2.1

             1 December 2019 at 3:13 pm

             We should increase access to primary healthcare in general.

             In the specific case of stopping outbreaks that infect hundreds or thousands of people, the low hanging fruit are antivaxxers.
             • weka …

               1 December 2019 at 3:20 pm

               What evidence do you have that they are the main drivers of the measles outbreak in NZ? Genuinely interested. Is anyone studying this?

               Like I said, attacking anti-vaxers and people who chose to not vaccinate will imo radicalise them. It won't motivate them to vaccinate their kids. I know people that are undecided who give up trying to figure out all the information because the debate is so vitriolic but they don't vaccinate their kids. Some get scared into vaccinating, but I'm dubious that this accounts for sufficient numbers to warrant the tactics because of how many get put off.
               • McFlock …

                 1 December 2019 at 3:29 pm

                 Didn't say "main drivers".

                 ISTR from previous discussions that antivaxxers were about a quarter of undervaxxed. Also that in manu dhbs that number relates to a bit more than the difference between the current dhb vax rate and the target.

                 At the upper end, higher vax rates have a more significant effect on reducing disease transmission – increasing vax rate from 5% to 10% isn't going to have as much an effect on the same disease as increasing from 85% to 90%.

                 People not in contact with primary healthcare need to be tracked and reached somehow. People refusing/delaying are right there in the office. Hence low hanging fruit.
                 • weka …

                   1 December 2019 at 3:46 pm

                   they're not though. Many of the people I know who don't vaccinate their kids by intentional choice rarely go to a GP. But I don't see how that makes any difference because they're not going to respond to ridicule, hatred and ostracisation.

                   Are your stats for childhood vaccinations in general?
                   • McFlock …

                     1 December 2019 at 6:17 pm

                     I think we're conflating "refuse in principle, but haven't been offered" vs "was offered but declined".

                     So the "many people" in your group who rarely go to the GP might not even be "offered", so then would be in the "access to primary healthcare" numbers rather than "refused", from an immunisation register perspective. So vthe number might be larger than those officially logged as "refused".

                     As for how they react to accusation and so on, I'm not to worried, really. The health act has "draconian" powers for a reason: without them, idiots kill other people with their infections.

                     BTW, the immunisation stats break down by delivery point e.g. whether they’re fully immunised @6months vs 18months etc.
                   • RedLogix …

                     1 December 2019 at 9:07 pm

                     The health act has "draconian" powers for a reason: without them, idiots kill other people with their infections.

                     For once I find myself agreeing with you wholeheartedly McF. We've gone for so long without a massive and lethal pandemic now that too many people have forgotten what it can take to defeat our most ancient enemy.
                   • greywarshark …

                     2 December 2019 at 10:30 am

                     Edit
                     That's interesting weka. You know a number of people who don't want to be part of a wider community who join together to participate in systems that have been found to be useful for a better life. That doesn't bode well for the future, with cells or groups that decide to reject the ways of the the society in important matters to a society's culture and health.

                     This attitude will weaken the already fragile cohesion of society. I don't see it giving more autonomy and respect to the individual, rather one of dismissing the main society to adopt conformity with another group that takes an emotional or resentful stance to the norms of society. This group rejects the advice of the main society concerning the risks and benefits of practices it follows.

                     I hope that separation into groups in self- imposed isolation geographically or culturally does not grow in numbers, mirroring Gloriahaven and Centrepoint. They are different from closely aligned local groups in villages and towns, working around enterprises in an agreed unity, each with its own style and encouraging a healthy mind in a healthy body respected as part of a diverse unified community, each taking interest to be well informed with self-respect and practising self-reflection as well. That combination would limit the number of anti-vaxxers and self-centred dogmatists.
         • UncookedSelachimorpha 2.1.2.2.3

           1 December 2019 at 4:13 pm

           " A sensible one is to ensure kids basic vaccinations are covered, spacing them out to give their little bodies more time to recover + skip the newer ones like HPV. "

           No evidence for any of that. Our bodies cope with more than one antigen at a time, have done for millions of years. But this "spaced out" view is being used as a sort of anti-vax halfway house.
3. Adrian Thornton 3

   1 December 2019 at 8:32 am

   UN Rapporteur on Torture Nils Melzer explains why the UK’s treatment of Julian is tantamount to torture, why Julian won’t face a fair trial in the US..all the while all the media stay absolutely silent…their silence however speaks volumes to their complicity and to where their interests really lay..our own included, no wonder most MSM is in a death spiral.

   Interestingly, Melzer offered BBC for him to a ‘Hardtalk’ to be asked the hard questions…of course they don’t take him up on that offer, as we all know just the Russiagate fiasco, no MSM will go near anyone who will challenge their narrative with facts….again this speaks volumes.
4. francesca 4

   1 December 2019 at 9:20 am

   Thanks for that Adrian

   Its interesting that Melzer started off believing all the Assange tripe…he's a rapist, mistreats his cat , a nutter who smears faeces on the walls, a Russian agent who propelled Trump to the WH , that sort of thing, then as he became aware of the concerted media/intelligence/govts/campaign, swung firmly behind Assange.

   He's become an unshakeable advocate for journalistic freedom

   Good for him ! An honest man
   • Adrian Thornton 4.1

     1 December 2019 at 2:57 pm

     Yeah, wouldn't it be nice to see a few of those around here come to their senses in the same way, not going hold my breath on that happening any time soon though.
5. joe90 5

   1 December 2019 at 9:22 am

   A Sunday watch.
   • Adrian Thornton 5.1

     1 December 2019 at 2:49 pm

     Thanks for that Joe, here is one of my favorites,,,

     A Debate on the Existence of God: The Cosmological Argument — F. C. Copleston vs. Bertrand Russell.
6. mauī 6

   1 December 2019 at 9:25 am

   The odiousness and stupidity of the centre-left should not come as any surprise…

   This is the second poll this week to show voters are increasingly likely to oppose impeachment, despite wall-to-wall media coverage of the House hearings that have produced bombshell testimony about how Trump threatened to withhold financial aid to Ukraine if the country did not open an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden, a top contender for the Democratic presidential nomination.

   https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/471542-poll-finds-sharp-swing-in-opposition-to-impeachment-among-independents
   • joe90 6.1

     1 December 2019 at 9:45 am

     Independents are most likely to vote GOP.

     http://archive.li/qadaH#selection-883.0-893.184
     • ScottGN 6.1.1

       1 December 2019 at 9:52 am

       Perhaps because former Republican Party supporters have moved to Independent in the last couple of years?
       • joe90 6.1.1.1

         1 December 2019 at 10:04 am

         Sure, maybe a point or two.

         https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
       • Sabine 6.1.1.2

         1 December 2019 at 10:06 am

         Funnily enough, a lot of these are women. But then maybe they realise that sometimes women need abortions, need female centric healthcare, and don't want to loose their rights as human beings. Go figure. Maybe its just the white working class male with economic anxiety that is good with grabbing them by the pussy.
         • Macro 6.1.1.2.1

           1 December 2019 at 4:49 pm

           That is pretty much it. A very recent poll across the US gave 70% of women voters would not be voting Trump in 2020 whereas around 50% of men would. This ties in with his around 42% approval rating 54% disapproval rating. Women have been perhaps the most active in the resistance of GOP policies. Although, of course, you will find the religious right and similar others in support because of their desire for the end times. But those with any sense, see the underhand workings of Moscow Mitch and the GOP Senate, with the steady stream of right wing judicial appointments, not only to the Supreme Court, but to the all the other levels as well which will ultimately lead to a very restrictive and stupidly legalistic America. The idiotic Abortion Bill in Ohio just a case in point.

           https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/29/ohio-extreme-abortion-bill-reimplant-ectopic-pregnancy
   • Anne 6.2

     1 December 2019 at 9:55 am

     What's that got to do with the centre left? No mention of them. More likely right wing nut-balls masquerading as independents.
     • Sabine 6.2.1

       1 December 2019 at 10:00 am

       Because the centre left is what is at fault.

       Not the centre right, not the far right, not the orange pile of shit that is to fucking dumb to get extortion right, or his handlers.
       • Anne 6.2.1.1

         1 December 2019 at 10:39 am

         Except that wasn't the talking point of maui's comment @ 6.

         He said:The odiousness and stupidity of the centre-left should not come as any surprise…

         Then he/she proceeded to quote from the link provided which talks about "independents" and doesn't mention the centre-left.
         • Sabine 6.2.1.1.1

           1 December 2019 at 10:54 am

           that is exactly what i said.

           blame the centre left other wise he would have typed

           The odiousness and stupidity of the independents should not come as any surprise.

           …..but the poster did not.

           As for impeachment, the resident should have thought harder, covered up more, or simply have been less stupid. Also more support impeachment then do not.

           https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/

           also people identifying as independent are the largest block of voters, followed by demcorats and then republicans.

           https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

           so yes, he is blaming a fictional group of 'centre left', and as for polls we all have them. 🙂
       • Adrian Thornton 6.2.1.2

         1 December 2019 at 2:55 pm

         Yep,, as it turns out the most dangerous enemy of progressive change getting off the ground, turns out to be the centre left third way liberals.
7. Pete George 7

   1 December 2019 at 10:02 am

   I think this is a very good article on climate change, in particular warnings about extreme claims of doom and apocalypse that are counter-productive to taking sensible action on climate change – and on more important issues affecting the wellbeing of people and our planet.

   Michael Shellenberger (Forbes): Why Apocalyptic Claims About Climate Change Are Wrong

   Journalists and activists alike have an obligation to describe environmental problems honestly and accurately, even if they fear doing so will reduce their news value or salience with the public. There is good evidence that the catastrophist framing of climate change is self-defeating because it alienates and polarises many people. And exaggerating climate change risks distracting us from other important issues including ones we might have more near-term control over.

   …

   First, no credible scientific body has ever said climate change threatens the collapse of civilization much less the extinction of the human species.

   …

   It’s not like climate doesn’t matter. It’s that climate change is outweighed by other factors. Earlier this year, researchers found that climate “has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential.”

   …

   Last January, after climate scientists criticized Rep. Ocasio-Cortez for saying the world would end in 12 years, her spokesperson said"We can quibble about the phraseology, whether it's existential or cataclysmic.” He added, “We're seeing lots of [climate change-related] problems that are already impacting lives."

   That last part may be true, but it’s also true that economic development has made us less vulnerable, which is why there was a 99.7% decline in the death toll from natural disasters since its peak in 1931.

   In 1931, 3.7 million people died from natural disasters. In 2018, just 11,000 did. And that decline occured over a period when the global population quadrupled.

   Capitalism hasn't been all bad, in fact it has done a lot of good.

   What about claims of crop failure, famine, and mass death? That’s science fiction, not science. Humans today produce enough food for 10 billion people, or 25% more than we need, and scientific bodies predict increases in that share, not declines.

   The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts crop yields increasing 30% by 2050. And the poorest parts of the world, like sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to see increases of 80 to 90%.

   Nobody is suggesting climate change won’t negatively impact crop yields. It could. But such declines should be put in perspective. Wheat yields increased 100 to 300% around the world since the 1960s, while a study of 30 models found that yields would decline by 6% for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature.

   Rates of future yield growth depend far more on whether poor nations get access to tractors, irrigation, and fertilizer than on climate change, says FAO.

   All of this helps explain why IPCC anticipates climate change will have a modest impact on economic growth. By 2100, IPCC projects the global economy will be 300 to 500% larger than it is today. Both IPCCand the Nobel-winning Yale economist, William Nordhaus, predict that warming of 2.5°C and 4°C would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by 2% and 5% over that same period.

   So the impact of climate change needs to be put into sensible perspective.

   I asked the Australian climate scientist Tom Wigley what he thought of the claim that climate change threatens civilization. “It really does bother me because it’s wrong,” he said. “All these young people have been misinformed. And partly it’s Greta Thunberg’s fault. Not deliberately. But she’s wrong.”

   …

   Wigley started working on climate science full-time in 1975 and created one of the first climate models (MAGICC) in 1987. It remains one of the main climate models in use today.

   “When I talk to the general public,” he said, “I point out some of the things that might make projections of warming less and the things that might make them more.

   …

   “You’ve got to come up with some kind of middle ground where you do reasonable things to mitigate the risk and try at the same time to lift people out of poverty and make them more resilient,” said Emanuel. “We shouldn’t be forced to choose between lifting people out of poverty and doing something for the climate.”

   Happily, there is a plenty of middle ground between climate apocalypse and climate denial.

   But most arguments over climate change seem to be on the more extreme fringes.

   NZ media generally have decided not to give publicity to extreme climate denial. They should be just as sensible about restricting extreme claims that tend towards climate apocalypse.

   (Claims made in the article have links to various sources).
   • Robert Guyton 7.1

     1 December 2019 at 10:04 am

     Middle-ground, shmiddle-ground!
     Your "sensible" is going to sink us all, Pete. Just stop it!
     • Sacha 7.1.1

       1 December 2019 at 10:25 am

       But it's only the most 'common' sense, Robert. 🙂
   • Sacha 7.2

     1 December 2019 at 10:05 am

     Beige will not save us.
     • Pete George 7.2.1

       1 December 2019 at 10:11 am

       Neither will petty dissing. Have you read the article?
       • Sacha 7.2.1.1

         1 December 2019 at 10:21 am

         Your summary was more than enough, thanks.

         taking sensible action
         • Pete George 7.2.1.1.1

           1 December 2019 at 10:25 am

           Funny that you diss 'sensible action' as somehow 'beige'.

           So you have chosen to ignore the article and diss the messenger. I think that's a bit pathetic, but predictable.
           • Sacha 7.2.1.1.1.1

             1 December 2019 at 10:26 am

             I have other pigs to wrestle today, sorry.
             • Pete George …

               1 December 2019 at 10:32 am

               So you drop some muck and run? At least you drew attention to the comment, so thanks for that.
             • Sacha …

               1 December 2019 at 10:49 am

               Only the most fragrant straw-coloured muck, mind. Don't want to scare the horses.
               • weka …

                 1 December 2019 at 10:52 am

                 other pigs to wrestle got a smile from me.
                 • Sacha …

                   1 December 2019 at 10:57 am

                   We all know the feeling, amirite
                 • Blade …

                   1 December 2019 at 12:09 pm

                   And what of the Pete's article? Or do you like to keep things simple?
                   • weka …

                     1 December 2019 at 12:47 pm

                     I critiqued the article below,
                   • Robert Guyton …

                     1 December 2019 at 1:02 pm

                     What of "Pete's article"?

                     A white-out contributed to the Erebus tragedy.

                     A beige-out will cause much greater harm.
                   • pat …

                     1 December 2019 at 1:10 pm

                     the article paid for and promoted by the oil industry?
                   • Pete George …

                     1 December 2019 at 2:23 pm

                     I didn't see evidence of that. Do you have any? Or are you trying to discredit Michel Shellenberger?

                     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Shellenberger
                   • pat …

                     1 December 2019 at 3:15 pm

                     @ P George

                     Shellenberger is a lobbyist

                     "Shellenberger was president and a senior fellow at the Breakthrough Institute, which he co-founded with Ted Nordhaus in 2003"

                     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Shellenberger

                     As noted earlier The Breakthrough Institute was launched in the first instance by Rockerfeller Philanthropy Advisors
   • Stuart Munro. 7.3

     1 December 2019 at 10:22 am

     You don't seem to have allowed for cascade collapses in complex systems.

     https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2008.0219
   • pat 7.4

     1 December 2019 at 10:29 am

     https://thebreakthrough.org/people/tom-wigley

     https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Talk:Breakthrough_Institute

     Rockerfeller huh….follow the money
   • weka 7.5

     1 December 2019 at 10:33 am

     Having a read now, but for future reference, please don't put such long cut and pastes in comments, it's a pain for people on tiny devices who are trying to get to the next comment.
   • weka 7.6

     1 December 2019 at 11:52 am

     There's a few problems with this article.

     One is that he conflates the issue of how to frame discussion of the climate crisis with the issue of how bad the crisis is. The framing issue exists wherever one is on the the 'how bad is it?' spectrum. His conflation seems to be using the framing issue to deny that the crisis is that bad.

     Another problem is this statement,

     First, no credible scientific body has ever said climate change threatens the collapse of civilization much less the extinction of the human species.

     This is a self-serving statement, because any scientists who do believe that CC threatens the collapse of civ will be written off as not credible. Instead of addressing the views of those scientists he uses XR spokespeople as examples, which is weird. Let's have a go anyway. Some well known, easy to look up science people that see a potential threat to civ from CC are James Lovelock, James Hansen, David Attenborough, Kevin Anderson,

     There's also a problem with his selective use of quotes and arguments. eg he uses this statement from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to illustrate catastrophe exaggeration,

     The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change

     But what she actually said, in context, was this,

     Millennials and people, you know, Gen Z and all these folks that will come after us are looking up and we're like, The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change and your biggest issue is how are we gonna pay for it? This is the war—this is our World War II.

     She's not saying that the world will literally end in 12 years, she's referencing the public discourse around the IPCC report that talked about a 12 year time frame to act, and is pointing out that young people want older people stop talking about money and instead talk about action. She is saying that in a modern, Millennial vernacular.

     His bit on the resiliency of crops fails for two reasons. One is that current increases in crop yields are due to industrial ag that uses fossil fuels, carbon releasing tech like ploughing, and ecocidal practices. All of that won't be available in the future. The other fail is that the IPCC itself says there are serious crop failure issues if GHG emissions aren't reduced. Shellenberger is cherry picking to support his own denialism.

     Maybe he was trying to say that any rhetoric around catastrophe is a problem, but overall he seems to be arguing that the crisis isn't as bad as people are making out. Unfortunately he is doing that in a misleading way.
     • Sacha 7.6.1

       1 December 2019 at 1:40 pm

       Thank you for taking one for the team.
       • weka 7.6.1.1

         1 December 2019 at 2:07 pm

         Welcome. I like to keep certain muscles flexible and strong, plus it helps when I go to write posts on climate (or critical thinking 😉 ).
         • Sacha 7.6.1.1.1

           1 December 2019 at 2:27 pm

           Ooh, I see Mr George is now claiming on his own blog that I have been 'assigned' to harrass him here. Where's my paycheque?
           • weka 7.6.1.1.1.1

             1 December 2019 at 2:37 pm

             I've long suspected that this blog wasn't in fact run by Lynn and Mike, but rather they are just puppets of a bigger master who controls us all. I'm afraid you've been misled and your position is entirely unpaid.
             • Incognito …

               1 December 2019 at 2:45 pm

               From time to time, we get sent back to the ‘workshop’ to get ‘recalibrated’. Don’t ask for pay as you’re doing this for the Greater Good.
           • Incognito 7.6.1.1.1.2

             1 December 2019 at 2:40 pm

             I see Pete is using the Parliamentary privilege of his own blog to whinge & whine about TS commenters. Just as well that he didn’t do it here because it would have triggered a predictable and inevitable response.
             • Pete George …

               1 December 2019 at 3:13 pm

               So you're happy for 'TS commenters' to whinge and whine about me here as much as they like, but any criticism from me would trigger "a predictable and inevitable response"?

               Does that mean you don't want me to respond to the whinging and whining that you seem to approve of if not encourage.

               The 'team' (a term used by Sacha and weka) intolerance of anyone deemed outside the team is one of the biggest impediments to decent, open discussion of political and social issues, and one of the biggest turnoffs to casual observers and voters (around various social media).
               • weka …

                 1 December 2019 at 3:16 pm

                 Sorry, where did I use the term 'team'?

                 Reading the comments on your blog, there seems to be some cultural issues there as well.

                 Thing that stands out for me though is that of the people that responded to your original comment here, you have ignored the comments that addressed the issue you raised, and instead you've spent your time having a go at the people you think are having a go at you. This tells me a lot about your intentions here Pete.
                 • Pete George …

                   1 December 2019 at 4:11 pm

                   You didn't say it but you used it.

                   Sacha: "Thank you for taking one for the team."

                   Weka: "Welcome."

                   "you've spent your time having a go at the people you think are having a go at you."

                   That's very funny.
                 • Sacha …

                   1 December 2019 at 8:49 pm

                   It's a curse having to interpret everything literally including historic idiomatic phrases like "taking one for the team" but some like the badger refuse all help. Retreat to the false reassurance of their lair and moan, stuck with the knowledge that they could have been a contender.
               • Incognito …

                 1 December 2019 at 9:17 pm

                 Dear Pete, if you had written that allegation about Sacha here on TS you would have copped a ban, instantly, and you know it.

                 Just to make it absolutely clear to you, there is no team here, no assignments, no coordinated action against you or anybody else, and no conspiracy. Occasionally, we do experience a pile on here. Although this is often self-inflicted, we do put the brakes on it when it gets out of control, which does happen – TS is not a perfect organisation either.

                 If you cannot stand the heat of the debate here because people disagree with the long cut & paste you put up you may want to consider the alternative. What pisses me off is that you spray and walkaway when the going gets tough and then whinge & whine in the comfort of your own blog where you find solace from supportive commenters. Over the years, you have pissed and dissed on TS a few times – yesterday I happened to read a long exchange in the past between Lynn and you on your blog. It is pretty clear that even after all these years you still don’t understand TS and frankly, I can’t see it happening.
         • RedLogix 7.6.1.1.2

           1 December 2019 at 2:50 pm

           But as usual you have no answer to the simple blunt reality that if you collapse our current energy systems to carbon zero tomorrow, you become directly responsible for the death of billions in the days after. Sure you may have 'saved the planet' but history will account you the vilest mass murderer of all time.

           Getting to carbon zero is entirely doable, but it's a complex task with a multitude of moving parts. And to get there we need to keep our current systems running just long enough to get us past the transition. The greatest threat of all would be a true collapse of our industrial, technological civilisation. That would unleash an intolerable stew of dysfunction, inflicting immense damage in every sense, environmental, economic, social and moral.

           The good news is the technical solutions to wean us off fossil carbon are now at hand; better still many countries are on sustainable political paths toward implementing them. Extremists at both ends of debate are now just getting in the way. Fortunately both are becoming increasingly marginalised.
     • Poission 7.6.2

       1 December 2019 at 3:02 pm

       Maybe he was trying to say that any rhetoric around catastrophe is a problem, but overall he seems to be arguing that the crisis isn't as bad as people are making out.

       There are significant problems with rhetoric arguments over deadlines and climate emergency.This is well signalled in the scientific literature.The problem is an obvious one can you identify it?and why it is so dangerous.

       https://mikehulme.org/why-setting-a-climate-deadline-is-dangerous/
       • weka 7.6.2.1

         1 December 2019 at 3:14 pm

         There are all sorts of problems with climate crisis rhetoric and framing, including timeframes. This is not news to me and I've talked about it in the past. That's a different thing from there being no crisis. I thought I'd explained that reasonably well in my comment. There's nothing in my comment that suggests there are no issues with the framing.
         • Poission 7.6.2.1.1

           1 December 2019 at 3:19 pm

           There is a significant scientific problem there ie a physical solution that is so fucken dangerous in the hands of morons like Gates and politicians its clearly identified, dont you understand the risk.
           • weka 7.6.2.1.1.1

             1 December 2019 at 3:21 pm

             No idea what you are referring to. Why not spell it out?
             • Poission …

               1 December 2019 at 3:52 pm

               Why dont you read the paper.
               • weka …

                 1 December 2019 at 4:02 pm

                 Because I'm busy and I don't see a reason to when I don't even know what the point is. You've said "There are significant problems with rhetoric arguments over deadlines and climate emergency" which I agree with.

                 Then you've made some obscure statements, I think it's on you to say what you mean.
                 • pat …

                   1 December 2019 at 4:26 pm

                   will save you the time weka……is a political/sociological case that misunderstands the basic element of lag in their main argument…while there is uncertainty around the carbon budget for say 1.5C increase there is not 12-34 years of emissions available to burn before it is reached indeed it is possible the carbon budget for 1.5C has already been reached …geo engineering advocates and totalitarians will attempt to act regardless.
   • whetherreport 7.7

     2 December 2019 at 12:50 pm

     Agreed. That identifying middle ground would at least be a navigatable first start and a departure from the constant wordy ebb and flow of various parties asserting that their theory is more correct than anybody else's.
     • Sacha 7.7.1

       2 December 2019 at 12:52 pm

       Let's have a leisurely natter while Rome burns.
       • pat 7.7.1.1

         2 December 2019 at 1:26 pm

         +1

         is nothing more than a(nother) delaying tactic
8. Anne 8

   1 December 2019 at 10:10 am

   Short, sharp and to the point.

   Good one Claire Szabo. Just what Labour needs:

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12289804
   • Jimmy 8.1

     2 December 2019 at 9:44 am

     Yes she is a good choice for the position……to be fair, Taine and the other candidate never really had a chance up against her. I really couldn't understand the Stuff article the other week saying Taine was favorite to win!!!!!
9. joe90 9

   1 December 2019 at 10:12 am

   Only the best people…

   https://twitter.com/weareoversight/status/1200539180478152704
10. Fireblade 10

    1 December 2019 at 11:16 am

    Paula Bennett should be focusing on issues that matter to New Zealanders instead of wasting time posing for glossy magazine covers.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulabennettmp/status/1200682839827570688
    • Incognito 10.1

      1 December 2019 at 11:22 am

      Ms Bennett is National’s Election Campaign Manager and this is part of the party’s (and her personal, no doubt) campaign. She’s just doing her job while the DP Squad are digging for dirty dirt.
      • Fireblade 10.1.1

        1 December 2019 at 11:52 am

        It's not Vogue, but beggars can't be choosers.
        • Incognito 10.1.1.1

          1 December 2019 at 12:04 pm

          I would never buy that coral dress and neither should Ms Bennett IMHO. I guess she’s still reinventing herself.
          • Fireblade 10.1.1.1.1

            1 December 2019 at 5:14 pm

            I wouldn't buy that dress either. I wear long sleeve dresses to hide my biceps and hairy arms. I also like comfortable loose fitting dresses because they make my masculine protrusions less obvious.
        • Gabby 10.1.1.2

          1 December 2019 at 3:29 pm

          She's still horrible mind you.
          • greywarshark 10.1.1.2.1

            1 December 2019 at 4:22 pm

            In between Bumps, royalty, fashion, crosswords and food Paula is trying to partly fit in to all genres and be eye-candy. Who handles her makeover? It has been outstanding work, just short of eugenics.
11. joe90 11

    1 December 2019 at 12:52 pm

    Republican college-educated men. The men with all the money.

    https://twitter.com/rmc031/status/1200393386441805825
12. Exkiwiforces 12

    1 December 2019 at 1:10 pm

    I’ll counter Pete George post with this one https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/a-lot-of-suffering-grim-3000yo-warning-about-to-come-true/news-story/84274e09f8cc1ae708bfb0b43947d297, it has an Australian twist to in this article from new.com.au. But you can drop Australia, add NZ or combined two countries for this article as I believe this would happen to both countries in a worst case scenario with CC if past history is anything to go by.

    I tend to look at previous historical facts/ and or events, and assumptions being made to day at IRT to CC and actions by various nation states to give me a rough idea when I compile IMAP/ SMAP planning processes to give me a Most Dangerous Course of Action and a Most Likely Course of Action.
    • greywarshark 12.1

      1 December 2019 at 3:55 pm

      While thinking about Australia, Media Watch this morning did a piece of what sort of regime we should be thinking about for public media in NZ…

      I was impressed by the summary about the ABC and it does sound good. Not so sure about Eire or Canada.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/2018724866/mediawatch-for-1-december-2019
13. Sacha 13

    1 December 2019 at 1:50 pm

    Kiwibuild may have missed promised targets but it did succeed in changing the industry's focus says Fletcher chair https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117846966/fletcher-building-chairmans-praise-for-kiwibuild
14. aj 14

    1 December 2019 at 3:59 pm

    Southland engineering firms, the aquaculture sector and the region's struggling youth are the latest winners from the Government's Provincial Growth Fund.

    Regional Economic Development minister Shane Jones was in Invercargill on Thursday to announce the fund would pump $4m total into the three sectors.

    Ten engineering firms in Southland will receive a total of $2.13 million to assist them with buying equipment that would lift productivity and create 57 new jobs in the sector.

    Southland Times
    • Sacha 14.1

      1 December 2019 at 8:55 pm

      That Jones lad is a genius. Underwater welding for the young!
      • Adrian 14.1.1

        1 December 2019 at 10:28 pm

        Underwater welding is actually an essential technique and skill for constuction and maintenance of infrastructure as well as the marine and fishing industries. Please keep up.
        • Sacha 14.1.1.1

          1 December 2019 at 11:32 pm

          I know. Admiring it as a way to bridge multiple objectives.
15. greywarshark 15

    1 December 2019 at 9:41 pm

    The modern world cannot provide quality of life that matches the expectations of people living in developed countries with universal education and complex service systems. The supply of water for cities is insufficient in a number of Australian cities. This from Sydney:

    …Cataract Dam is only 26 percent full, prompting community debate about the long-term supply of clean drinking water during long droughts.

    Western Sydney University scientist Ian Wright, who specialises in research into urban water quality, described the results as "shocking" and "unnatural".

    He said the pollution was caused by metallic sediments – deep in the dams' catchments – dissolving into the water.
    The sediments are a by-product of coal-mining activity, which over many decades has damaged Sydney's rock beds, swamps and streams.
    The records show samples from Cataract and Cordeaux dams have exceeded acceptable limits more than 90 times in three years.

    By comparison, neighbouring Avon Dam has breached the limits just three times in three years.

    Dr Wright said that while small doses of iron are safe to drink, an elevated level usually indicates more dangerous contaminants in the dams..

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/404581/shocking-metallic-gunk-contaminates-sydney-drinking-water-dams
16. pat 16

    1 December 2019 at 11:00 pm

    The 4th estate takes aim…at itself.

    Two disturbing pieces

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/01/politicians-and-cultist-supporters-in-cahoots-avoiding-scrutiny-is-their-aim

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/30/cult-that-defines-trumps-power-is-just-a-few-scratches-away-from-the-surface-in-australia
17. Jenny How to get there 17

    2 December 2019 at 6:13 am

    'Fake News', 'False Flag', 'Crisis Actors', 'Conspiracy theory', – Fascism

    The hall marks of modern fascism repeat in Brazil. As in Syria the rescuers and humanitarians are depicted as terrorists.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/26/brazil-police-raid-ngo-office-amazon-wildfires?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR0m7cW_n3fo2oB49eIJNIAcXQasJ7SGBA5Im8C1gjS5Xkby3x-NP8BzDP8
18. Eco maori 18

    3 December 2019 at 8:37 am

    Kia Ora 1 News.

    Money talks.

    Tawhirimate is going Mana in Poneke.

    I think that poll is insensitive with what is happening.

    I think that all mahi should show Wahine more respect.

    My Tane mokopuna favourite breakfast.

    Ka kite Ano
19. Eco maori 19

    3 December 2019 at 10:57 am

    The World and our futures mokopuna will gain many positive effects if we start mitigating Global Warming now.

    If we don't it will cost trillion of $$$$$ in lost people lives wild life and assets.

    COP25: youth ‘leadership’ contrasts with government inaction, says UN chief

    Ahead of Madrid climate change conference António Guterres says political will.

    

    António Guterres, the United Nations secretary general, contrasted the “leadership” and “mobilisation” shown by the world’s youth on the climate emergency with the lack of action by governments, which were failing to keep up with the urgency of the problem despite increasing signs that the climate was reaching breakdown.

    Before the start of a critical conference on the climate crisis on Monday, he said the world had the technical and economic means to halt climate chaos, but what was missing was political will.

    “The technologies that are necessary to make this possible are already available. Signals of hope are multiplying. Public opinion is waking up everywhere. Young people are showing remarkable leadership and mobilisation. [But we need] political will to put a price on carbon, political will to stop subsidies on fossil fuels [and start] taxing pollution instead of people.”

    Guterres called for further investment from rich countries and support for poor nations to make the changes needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with the impacts of global heating. Amid rising temperatures, wildfires, heatwaves, droughts and floods, the danger signals were clear and must be acted on without further delay, he said.

    To fulfil the Paris goals, far tougher targets on emissions are needed, while this year’s negotiations – known as COP25, running from 2 December to 13 December – will focus on technical issues such as a mechanism for trading carbon within the Paris agreement.

    Resolving these technicalities will allow the UN to wrap up the Paris “rulebook”, setting out how to measure and achieve emissions cuts, but experts are concerned that it leaves too little time for the substantive question of targets, which under the rules must be resolved by the end of 2020

    Ka kite Ano link below.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/dec/01/island-states-want-decisive-action-to-prevent-inundation
20. Eco maori 20

    3 December 2019 at 12:34 pm

    I not impressed with the health system 3 times they dropped the ball on my mokopuna health my daughter had a mist chest infection 3 check ups. They go and use my doctor against me they use my wife psychologist to turn her against me the system is bent WHANAU

    When the Waitangi Tribunal released its comprehensive Māori health report in July, the claimants involved were initially pleased.

    But now they're concerned the tribunal's recommendations are being ignored, despite assurances from the Ministry of Health.

    "They are simply ticking boxes to assuage whoever may be looking from the outside whether it's their own minister or other Māori stakeholders or iwi," says National Hauora Coalition (NHC) Chief Executive Simon Royal.

    "Which is essentially the behaviour the ministry has exhibited, and we've been complaining about, over the years. So it's repeating behaviours

    The prejudice suffered by Māori because of these Crown failures is extensive," said the tribunal in its report.

    Ka kite Ano link below.

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/117679098/whats-happened-since-the-damning-waitangi-tribunal-report-on-mori-health
21. Eco maori 21

    3 December 2019 at 2:01 pm

    Some Eco Maori Music For The Minute.

    https://youtu.be/cEXhZ8PwM-Y
22. Eco maori 22

    4 December 2019 at 8:28 am

    Kia Ora 1 News.

    I think it's good having a ban on foreign political donations. We need laws made to better Aotearoa not having foreign countrys leveraging our policy for their gain that in most case is not good for Aotearoa.

    I know that Samsung makes the best fridges with their digital inverter soft start technology. All the off grid solar power enthusiasm buy them.

    I know that the best thing for Aotearoa is to keep the Ports of Auckland were it is.

    Spend the billions Greening our economy.

    The United Nations report is the World’s reality.

    They have been cleaning up the mess your party made of Aotearoa in the 9 year's you were in.

    That's is cool a online tool using Artificial intelligence to help people understand and treat measles.

    I don't mind the odd ding in my waka I've had mine for 10 years still going fine my next vehicle will be a Electric hybrid.

    Ka kite Ano
23. Eco maori 23

    4 December 2019 at 10:47 am

    Some Eco Maori Music For The Minute.

    https://youtu.be/eJlN9jdQFSc
24. Eco maori 24

    4 December 2019 at 12:25 pm

    Times are changing fast if one is no on board the waka of being environmentally friendly well you will be left behind in the whenua.

    Not exactly the Orient Express, but Europe's sleepers are back

    untenable, sleepers lost their allure. One by one, Europe's great rail lines terminated or dramatically cut international night-train services.

    Now, with environmental activist Greta Thunberg's "flight shaming" making people more aware of their carbon footprint, the night-train industry is seeing a renaissance. It's luring a new class of traveller – not the small but wealthy group of people of leisure who travelled on opulent trains like the Orient Express, but ordinary business people and tourists with a climate conscience.

    That's heartening news for Siemens AG engineer Paul Winkler, who's been building trains for 27 years and believed he'd never again make another sleeper train car for western Europe.

    Ka kite Ano link below.

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/europe/117919418/not-exactly-the-orient-express-but-europes-sleepers-are-back
25. Eco maori 25

    4 December 2019 at 6:27 pm

    Kia Ora 1 News.

    Times have changed.

    You will know my views on the heavy rain fall down south.

    The Bush fire season is causing a lot problems in Australia at the minute.

    Ka kite Ano
26. Eco maori 26

    4 December 2019 at 6:50 pm

    Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.

    That's was my thoughts to.

    No no this teaches people to respect all cultures not just the culture in power at the minute. This is good for all our mokopuna wairua. Boiling – – – -.

    Great to see Te Marae return to the Mokopuna of the tangata who carved and built the Whare that went on a journey over seas.

    Awsome to see Iwi Ngāti Whatua building whare for their whanau.

    Ka kite Ano

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