Reading this mornings Herald online i see that Rodney Hide is even a bigger liar and hypocrite that was first reported. It now seems that Ms Crome lives with him in Wellington during the week.
Makes his claim about time for MP’s relationships a bit hollow!
But doesn’t she go away on playing tours? so they have to grab what time together they can. For such a hard working person, like most MPs, I think it is completely reasonable that they should travel together when they can.
Yeah, I think it is the “say one thing when in opposition, do the opposite when in government” approach that Rodney is taking that seems to be the issue. There is a single word that sums it up and it begins with “H”.
Oh, and it bugs me that Rodney has tried to justify his travel allowance by saying “it didn’t come from the trough we have been told not to use, it came from a different one that we are allowed to use”.
JK set the principle – “if you want to take your partner, pay for them yourself.” Which is quite different to “if you want to take your partner, take it from a different trough.” In the end it is all taxpayer funded. I mostly pay two different kinds of tax (income tax and GST), it goes to thousands of different places and I don’t get, or want, a detailed breakdown of how it is spent. But spending taxpayer money on travel is spending taxpayer money on travel, irrespective of whether it comes through a ministers account or an MPs account. To be consistent with the PM’s direction, Rodney should have paid for his partner’s travel himself. If he pays back the amount and apologises that might go some way, otherwise I will have to conclude that the PM does not mean what he says.
Lets get the whole Rodney thing back where it should be. The whole travel thing is a siideshow and distraction. It is not going to sink him, it merely shows him for what he is, a blown up in your face frick you egomaniac.
More to the point this whole thing is having a smokescreen effect on the real issue, that Hide is colluding with Auckland big business in an undemocratic way to strip the people of their assetts. ARC and councils (aka the Auckland regions ratepayers) currently own as much capital wealth as the whole NZSX, and these larcenists want it. They also then want you to pay forr the capital they need to bankroll the larceny over the forseeable future through such devices as privatised water bodies.
When will Labour ever come clean, determined to drop below the Greens.
Another MP poll-busted
4:00AM Sunday Nov 01, 2009
By Matt Nippert
A second Labour MP has been implicated in the fake-name polling scandal uncovered last week by the Herald on Sunday.
The volunteer who came forward last week to blow the whistle said she was recruited by MP Iain Lees-Galloway, who was also present when the polling took place.
Don’t think this is purely a Labour thing. What is implied when National choose not to attack over this. Even Gerry Brownlee on Morning Report (RNZ) suggested that this was a beat-up.
When it comes to the climate change debate, the common criticism I have seen is that contrary evidence can’t be accepted because it hasn’t been peer reviewed.
I want to take the opportunity to point out that the peer review process isn’t all its cracked up to be, and that the published evidence in any field can provide an extremely distorted picture due to a number of potential biases in the process.
A common bias is the positivity bias. This bias means that reviewers tend to prefer to publish research that shows a positive effect rather than research that shows no effect. However, in reality, the research that shows no effect can be just as important as research that shows a positive effect. Here is an article from another field, medicine, that provides empirical evidence of the problem:
This bias is potentially very serious for the field of climate change. This is because the null hypothesis will often be something like “observed changes are due to natural variability”. Thus, any research that confirms the null hypothesis is much less likely to be published, potentially providing a skewed view of reality. Lets assume that the research was 50/50 either way. In that case I would expect there to be much more published research in favour of climate change, than against it due to the positivity bias alone.
There are several other relevant biases that are likely to have an impact:
For instance, the name and affiliation of a research can have a substantial effect on whether an article is published:
Thus, if most reviewers hold a position of supporting the climate change debate, it is less likely they will accept research from those with contrary views, regardless of the objective merits of the research.
Another possibility arising from these types of biases is that even scientists who support climate change are less likely to put forward research if it fails to find an effect from climate change. This is because they are likely to fear being seen in the camp of “the deniers” simply because their research has not found an effect.
Thus, relying only on published peer reviewed literature leaves people open to getting a skewed view of reality, especially in a field such as climate change where there are very polarised views.
Peer review is as you say not what it is always cracked up to be. It is best described as a ‘necessary but not sufficient condition’. Peer review weeds out papers with bad errors and basic mistakes, however it’s also obvious that the process is not foolproof and that for a number of reasons, flawed work can and does get published.
The perils of positivity and confirmation bias are drummed into every undergraduate student. While they are a real and present danger, they are strongly guarded against. Any working researcher who is shown to make this basic kind of error too often, will quickly find their career at an end.
Scientists are not a uniform group who all think exactly alike. A consensus is just that, a model or line of thought that is agreed upon at that point in time… but no more than that. Every individual scientist has their own opinions, view points and line of attack on the problems. The idea of white coated hordes all trapped into the same hive mentality is so much nonsense.
Indeed, given the profile of the AGW issue… there would be enormous rewards and several Nobel prizes for anyone who could conclusively prove that all the data really could be explained by natural variation alone, and that humans really could pump as much CO2 into the atmosphere and the resulting excess IR absorbtion would have no effect. Yet so far no-one has been able to do this.
Really this whole argument boils down to three options:
1. The large majority of qualified and experienced climate scientists have independently concluded that AGW is a real and threatening phenomonon.
2. The large majority of qualified and experienced climate scientists have suddenly and mysteriously all lost competency at what they do, that they all made a whole lot of errors, across many different approaches to AGW, that have all independently reached the same wrong conclusion.
3. The large majority of qualified and experienced climate scientists are all secretly colluding together to hoax the world in order to gain secure access to funding. And that no-one has so far been able to produce concrete evidence of this massive conspiracy.
“The large majority of qualified and experienced climate scientists are all secretly colluding together to hoax the world in order to gain secure access to funding.”
The experts all believe that global warming is a real phenomenon with serious consequences, and that action to curb emissions is urgently needed.
What they are saying is that if people make claims that cannot be proven, or are easily questioned, other dishonest fuckwits will use that as a reason to do nothing, which would be a disaster.
This is because the null hypothesis will often be something like “observed changes are due to natural variability’.
Umm it is clear that you’ve never been around science much.
Your medical analogy is strained because the vast majority of medical research is funded by medical providers like drug and medical equipment companies. They don’t like publishing null hypotheses (ie it didn’t do anything or was detrimental) about their products – so it doesn’t get to peer review. It is pretty much a case of why the profit motivation of the market isn’t that good at doing basic research (and great for simple engineering research).
By contrast most of the earth sciences research comes from various not-for-profit bodies, largely with tenure, and with few commercial attachments. Most of the participants are more than mildly cantankerous, and enjoy taking the contary positions if there was evidence to support it. The usual struggle is to get a place to publish rather than getting past reviewers. Reviewers tend to prefer letting through contary positions with substantiated evidence to papers on known material because to disagree with evidence is science.
With the CCD ‘scientists’, what is always interesting about them consists of several factors.
1. They usually have some quite interesting commercial links.
2. They literally never have new data, just reinterpretations of old data.
3. Their reinterpretations don’t have testable predictions.
In other words they are crank critics, not scientists. That is mainly why they don’t present papers to reviewers, and when they do, they don’t get published. The quality is too damn poor.
This is because the null hypothesis will often be something like “observed changes are due to natural variability’. Thus, any research that confirms the null hypothesis is much less likely to be published, potentially providing a skewed view of reality
erm, no. Just about any pattern in the world is made up of a ton of contributing factors, and a lot of work is done in trying to tease out what these factors are. ‘Natural variability’ is not any sort of nailed down constant, it’s a huge & complex soup, with a few strong contenders for the ingredients list. A lot of climate change study is not focussed on AGW, but paleoclimatology, which is about the only place where you can look at a range of time scales and evidence to ease out what some of these ingredients are on different time scales. These range from plate tectonics (for eg. the opening of the Drake Passage & formation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current), to Milankovic cycles to Solar activity. What is typical is that not one pattern explains the variation seen in proxy records, particularly as the mechanisms are often indirect; what you can get however, is an idea of how much of the pattern you’re interested in (for example global temperature patterns over time) is explained by the factor you’re looking at, and what the ‘residuals’ are, that is the left over bits.
I have a pattern of setting my alarm for 6:20 AM on weekday mornings, but actual real world results don’t match this. If I compare the real world results with the predicted results, I’m left with the odd discrepancy – the odd days when I forgot to switch the alarm on (or the weekends when I forgot to switch it off!), power cuts etc might explain the variation that would not have been expected.
What I’m getting at is that determining these sorts of residuals & what causes them in climate data (be it global anomalies or local variation) are results, it doesn’t just come down to null vs alternative hypothesis. Secondly, it’s not that difficult to frame a null hypothesis in the other way, and I’d be surprised if no-one has eg have your null hypothesis as Anthropogenic Global Warming explaining the variation, vs your alternative hypothesis being solar activity (or whatever natural variability factor/s you’re looking at) explaining the same better and bingo; if AGW explains the pattern better then you might have a problem getting it published, if solar activity explains the pattern better you have a result.
In reality you don’t get a whole lot of studies on ‘AGW or ‘natural variability’ as a whole, and nor as an simple either/ o proposition. What you get is people looking at where the data doesn’t fit the best matching patterns (CO2 concentrations & orbital geometry) and looking into why this is, ie what the residuals might be caused by.
You won’t find many climate scientists who don’t believe in natural variability, but you will find that no-one has managed to explain observed warming trends by natural variability alone. As Redlogix points out above, there’s no shortage of incentive for someone to do this.
Just like there was no shortage of incentive to find that tobacco smoke doesn’t contribute to ill health, and certainly no lack of support for those scientists who found it worth their while to find no evidence of harmful effects.
Include John Key in this scam since Rodney “checked” with him twice before setting off on his perk trip with live in girlfriend. Why? Maybe a little voice was telling him THIS IS WRONG! Attempts to justify this episode prove Key & Hide lack integrity. SHAME on them both when there are NZers financially struggling.
What is the difference between Blinglish’s family trust and Jonkey’s family trust? I gather that when Tranzrail questions were being asked in the house the defence was that the questioner had no pecuniary interest in the trust that held the shares.
yeah, or to eat less meat, or to eat different meat.
For my part I can walk 5 minutes away and buy wild venison/ bacon/ goat/ rabbit; to my mind you can’t get more environmentally friendly than that. Not that everyone’s so lucky with their local shopping. It’s certainly a lot more environmentally friendly than my more sanctimonious vegetarian friends who eat lots and lots of cheese (bobby calves, stream pollution etc).
Interesting thinkpiece on global economy from Prof Robert Wade, NZ with London School of Economics affiliate aptly acronymed DESTIN (discussing our future likely destiny which can not be fully predicted, so the ‘Y’ is left hanging?). Can hear on radionz from Chris Laidlaw Sunday morning prog.
Has the Rod Oram sound, careful, considered thinking around the problems and possibly solutions. The future isn’t great, a W effect in global finance, and we now are in the middle – likely to go down again in 2010/11 when the effect of the stimulus from govts fades, and those are unlikely to be similarly repeated. More war activity from USA. Sounds feasible looking at past history. Good insightful stuff.
Use of the term ‘tipping point’ coined by Malcolm Gladwell in his 2000 book of that name which describes “the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable” (wikipedia), has reached a tipping point. Hereafter people who use the term shall be regarded as unimaginative imbeciles.
It’s great to be clever on this site but wouldn’t it make a lot more sense to be firing this type of thing thru to Granny Herald or the like to get those rags to be held accountable for their lack of investigative journalism into the likes of the Rodney Hide rorts or the disgraceful self promotion of the finance minister? And where was the outcry from the media when 500 health jobs disappeared due to restructuring? The converted are being preahced to here. With the govt’s honeymoon going way beyond what is normal, now is the time to be bombarding the media with the type of comments made on this site.
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There has been renewed focus on New Zealand First acting as a handbrake on the Government after our decision to not support Auckland light rail. We are a handbrake for bad ideas, that istrue, but our track record since 2017 has seen New Zealand First constructively also serve as an ...
Mark Patterson MP, New Zealand First List MP New Zealand First’s Fair Residency for Superannuation Bill passed its First Reading in Parliament today. The Bill makes a significant change to NZ Super by raising the minimum residency requirement from 10 to 20 years, after age 20. “Currently, a migrant of ...
Darroch Ball MP, Spokesperson for Law and Order A New Zealand First member’s bill in the name of Darroch Ball introducing a six-month minimum prison sentence for assaults on first responders has passed its second reading in Parliament. The new offence of "injuring a first responder or corrections officer with ...
Fletcher Tabuteau MP, Deputy Leader of New Zealand First New Zealand First welcomes the launch of the new Criminal Cases Review Commission, gifted with the name from Waikato-Tainui - Te Kāhui Tātari Ture, announced in Hamilton today by Justice Minister Andrew Little. “New Zealand First has long believed in and ...
The Green Party is celebrating over $800m in new funding for green projects, which will get people into jobs while solving New Zealand’s long-term challenges. ...
Mark Patterson MP, Spokesperson for Primary Industries New Zealand First is appalled that Meridian seems to have been unnecessarily spilling water from its dams to drive up its profits."While New Zealanders have been coming together in some of our darkest hours, we don’t expect power gentailers to waste water and ...
We wrapped up the first half of 2020 with a busy month, taking additional steps to support New Zealanders as we continue with our economic recovery. We rolled out targeted packages to support key industries like tourism and construction, helped create jobs in the environmental and agriculture sectors, and set ...
Hon Shane Jones, Minister for Infrastructure Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones has welcomed the appointment of Maurice Davis and his deep infrastructure and construction experience to the board of the Infrastructure Commission. Mr Davis (Ngāti Maniapoto), is the seventh and final appointment to the board led by former Reserve Bank Governor ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Leader of New Zealand First New Zealand’s click bait journalism is taking a turn for the worse, with yet another example of sensationalist, wilful-misrepresentation of the facts. “New Zealand First has worked constructively with its Coalition partner on hundreds of pieces of legislation and policy, and ...
The Green Party is today unveiling its Poverty Action Plan, which includes a Guaranteed Minimum Income to ensure people have enough to live with dignity. ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister Fletcher Tabuteau MP, Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development The Rotorua Museum redevelopment and Whakarewarewa and Tokorangi Forest projects will be accelerated thanks to a $2.09 million Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) boost, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher ...
This week, we rolled out the next steps of our recovery plan, with new infrastructure investment, extra support for tourism operators, and a new programme to get Kiwis into agriculture careers. The global economic consequences of COVID-19 will continue to be a challenge, but we have a detailed plan to ...
Jenny Marcroft MP, Spokesperson for Health New Zealand First welcomes the passage of the Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission Bill through its final reading in Parliament today fulfilling a coalition agreement commitment. “This is an important step in saving the lives of New Zealanders and delivers a key coalition commitment ...
Whakatāne has been given a $2.5 million boost to speed up previously funded projects and create more than 450 jobs in the next decade. Of those, the equivalent of 160 full-time jobs could be delivered in the next six weeks. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters is in town to make ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister Fletcher Tabuteau MP, Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $2.5 million to accelerate three infrastructure projects in Whakatāne, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. “This package is about ...
Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones is throwing his weight behind a bid by the Auckland Council to fast-track the more than doubling of the city's water allowance from the Waikato River. And he's coming out strongly against anyone who plans on getting in the way of this campaign. "It is my ...
The Green Party is thrilled to see changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that mean consents for large projects can be declined if they will have significant climate change implications that are inconsistent with the Zero Carbon Act and Aotearoa New Zealand’s Paris Agreement obligations. ...
Hon Ron Mark, Minister of Defence The Royal New Zealand Navy’s new ship, Aotearoa, set sail for New Zealand on 10 June from the Republic of Korea, and is due to arrive in Auckland tomorrow, announced Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “Aotearoa is the Royal New Zealand Navy’s new fleet ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Racing Racing Minister Winston Peters has today welcomed the Racing Industry Bill passing its third reading, creating the legislative framework for revitalising the racing industry while limiting the need for future government intervention. “For too long our domestic racing industry has ...
The Green Party has today put forward an amendment to the Electoral (Registration of Sentenced Prisoners) Amendment Bill to ensure all people in prisons can vote in general elections. ...
The Green Party welcomes the decision to not proceed with Public Public Investment (PPI) delivery of Auckland’s light rail project and to instead run the process through the public service. ...
Stephen Clark, Māori Land Court Judge of Hamilton has been appointed as a District Court Judge with jury jurisdiction to be based in Hamilton, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Judge Clark graduated with an LLB from Auckland University in 1988 and was admitted to the Bar in the same year. ...
The Crown will provide a loan to Hawke’s Bay Airport to ensure it can trade through COVID-19 economic impacts, support the region’s recovery and protect up to 200 jobs. The Crown has a 50 percent shareholding in Hawke’s Bay Airport Limited (HBAL), with Napier City Council holding 26 percent and ...
Four celebrated Māori and Pasifika events will receive up to $100,000 each in funding from the new Creative and Cultural Events Incubator fund, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford announced today. The four events that were successful in the inaugural funding round are: Kia Mau Festival, Wellington Māoriland Film Festival, Otaki ...
The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio is pleased to announce the inaugural launch of Kiribati Language Week as part of the 2020 Pacific language Weeks programme. “I am so pleased that this year we are able to provide resourcing support to the Kiribati community in Aotearoa which will ...
Wildlife institutions affected by a loss of visitor revenue during the COVID-19 lockdown are set to receive government support with nearly $15 million of funding available announced Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “Eco-sanctuaries, zoos, aquariums, wildlife parks, and wildlife rescue, hospital and rehabilitation facilities provide crucial support for the recovery ...
The Government is expanding and accelerating frontline mental health and wellbeing services at tertiary education institutes (TEI) to help students manage ongoing stresses related to COVID-19. “The lockdown has been hugely disruptive for students. Many of them have had to relocate and move to online learning, isolating them from their ...
The Minister of Police says a major operation against the Mongrel Mob in Waikato will make a big dent in drug harm and violent offending linked to organised crime networks. “Senior leadership of the Waikato Mongrel Mob has been taken out as a result of Operation Kingsville, which resulted in ...
The Government is extending the border exception criteria to enable some offshore victims and support people of the Christchurch mosque attacks to attend the sentencing of the accused beginning on 24 August2020, says Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway. “We want to support our valued Muslim brothers and sisters who were directly ...
A project to support volunteer efforts to look after streams and rivers is getting a boost thanks to support from DOC’s Community Conservation Fund announced Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage today. “The government is backing efforts to look after waterways with $199,400 for the Mountains to Sea Conservation Trust from ...
Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter today announced that funding for the COVID-19 Community Fund for women and girls will be doubled, as the first successful funding applications for the initial $1million were revealed. “Women and girls across the country have suffered because of the effects of COVID-19, and I ...
The Government’s books were better than forecast with a higher GST take as the economy got moving again after lockdown, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Crown Accounts for the 11 months to the end of May indicate the year end results for tax revenue will be stronger than forecast. ...
A plan to revitalise New Zealand’s strong wool sector and set it on a new, more sustainable and profitable path was unveiled today by Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. The newly-released report - Vision and Action for New Zealand’s Wool Sector - was developed by the Wool Industry Project Action Group ...
Community efforts to create a Predator Free Whangārei will receive a $6 million boost, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage announced today. The new funding, through Government company Predator Free 2050 Ltd, will create around 12 jobs while enabling the complete removal of possums over ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced that the New Zealand Government is reviewing the settings of its relationship with Hong Kong. “China’s decision to pass a new national security law for Hong Kong has fundamentally changed the environment for international engagement there,” Mr Peters said. “New Zealand remains deeply ...
Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has announced details of a multimillion-dollar investment in Whangārei for infrastructure projects that will help it recover from the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 200 jobs are expected to be created through the $26 million investment from the Government’s rejuvenation package ...
Following a second incident in which a person escaped from a managed isolation facility, security is being enhanced, including more police presence onsite, Minister Megan Woods said. “The actions of some individuals who choose to break the very clear rules to stay within the facilities means that more resourcing is ...
Waste reduction and recycling programmes in Kaipara are set to get a boost with Associate Environment Minister Eugenie Sage today announcing a $361,447 grant from the Ministry for the Environment’s Waste Minimisation Fund (WMF) Sustainable Kaipara. “The new funding will allow Sustainable Kaipara to partner with local schools, kura, community ...
The Government will support the Southland economy in the wake of multinational mining company Rio Tinto’s decision to follow through with its long signalled closure of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter. “This day has unfortunately been on the cards for some time now, but nevertheless the final decision is a ...
New tools being developed to help boost Aotearoa’s Predator Free 2050 effort were unveiled today by Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage and Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau. A new rat poison, a camera with predator recognition software to detect and report predators, a new predator lure and a ...
The Coalition Government has approved the purchase of a fleet of Bushmaster vehicles to replace the New Zealand Army’s armoured Pinzgauers, Defence Minister Ron Mark has announced today. The new fleet of 43 Australian-designed and built Bushmaster NZ5.5 will provide better protection for personnel and improved carrying capacity. “The age ...
The Government’s three prevention frameworks to reduce family violence in Aotearoa were launched this week by Associate Minister for Social Development Poto Williams. The frameworks were developed in partnership with communities around New Zealand, and build on the work the Government has already begun with its new family violence prevention ...
The Government is pleased to confirm funding for improvements to radiology and surgical services at Hawke's Bay DHB, Health Minister Chris Hipkins says. "The Minister of Finance the Hon Grant Robertson and former Health Minister Dr David Clark approved funding for Hawke's Bay DHB’s redevelopment of their radiology facilities ...
• New funding for four beds at Napier’s Springhill Residential Addiction Centre • A new managed withdrawal home and community service, and peer support before and after residential care at Tairāwhiti DHB • A co-ordinated network of withdrawal management services throughout the South Island • Peer support in Rotorua and ...
Introduction, seafarers and POAL Good morning everyone, I am delighted to be online with you all today. Before I begin, I have to acknowledge that COVID-19 has disrupted the maritime sector on an unprecedented scale. The work of seafarers and the maritime industry is keeping many economies around the world ...
A $13 million investment from Government will create jobs and improve the resilience of the rail connection between Christchurch and the West Coast, Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones and Regional Economic Development Under-Secretary Fletcher Tabuteau say. The funding comes from the tagged contingency set aside in Budget 2020 for infrastructure projects ...
The Government is investing $761 million to assist local government upgrade under-pressure water services across the country, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Local Government Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The announcement was made at the site of the water bore that was found to be the source of the fatal ...
Recognised Seasonal Employers and migrant seasonal workers stranded in New Zealand will be able to continue working and supporting themselves with more flexible hours and roles, says Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway. The time-limited visa changes are: Stranded RSE workers will be able to work part-time (a minimum of 15 hours ...
The Government is making immediate short-term changes to visa settings to support temporary migrants already onshore in New Zealand and their employers, while also ensuring New Zealanders needing work are prioritised, Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. We are: Extending temporary work visas due to expire by the end of 2020 ...
Professor Peter Skelton CNZM has been appointed as Chief Freshwater Commissioner and Alternate Environment Court Judge Craig James Thompson as Deputy Chief Freshwater Commissioner for the newly established Freshwater Planning Process (FPP). Environment Minister David Parker today also announced the appointment of Chief Environment Court Judge Laurie Newhook as the ...
Auckland Queen’s Counsel Neil Campbell has been appointed a Judge of the High Court, Attorney‑General David Parker announced today. Justice Campbell graduated with a BCom and LLB (Hons) from the University of Auckland in 1992. He spent two years with Bell Gully Buddle Weir in Auckland before travelling to the United ...
The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to better enable the development and operation of commercial film and video facilities in Christchurch. The Proposal, developed by Regenerate Christchurch in response to a request from Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section ...
The Government has launched a bold plan to boost primary sector export earnings by $44 billion over the next decade, while protecting the environment and growing jobs. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today released Fit for a Better World – Accelerating our Economic Potential, a 10-year roadmap to unlock greater value ...
A new approach to prevent family harm that encourages greater collaboration across government and community groups is being celebrated at the opening of a new facility in Auckland. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today opened the Multi-Disciplinary Family Harm Prevention Hub Te Taanga Manawa in Lambie Road in Manukau. The facility ...
The Government has released a major new report on the options for relocating the Port of Auckland’s freight operations while deferring any decision on the issue. “That decision needs to be informed by policy analysis that is still to be completed. As a result it will be up to a ...
The history of Rāpaki is being restored through the inclusion of te reo in thirteen official place names on Te Pātaka-o-Rākaihautū / Banks Peninsula and around Lyttelton Harbour/Whakaraupō, the Minister for Land Information, Eugenie Sage, announced today. “I am pleased to approve the proposals from Te Hapū o Ngāti ...
Bookings for seats on Air New Zealand flights into New Zealand will be managed in the short term to ensure the Government is able to safely place New Zealanders arriving home into a managed isolation or quarantine facility, says Housing Minister Megan Woods. “Last week Air Commodore Darryn Webb and I ...
Grant Robertson has today announced the first major release of funding from the $265 million Sport Recovery Package announced at Budget 2020. “Today we’re setting out how $80 million will be invested, with $54 million of that over the 2020/2021 financial year for organisations from community level through to elite ...
The Government is maintaining current levy rates for the next 2 years, as part of a set of changes to help ease the financial pressures of COVID-19 providing certainty for businesses and New Zealanders, ACC Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. “New Zealanders and businesses are facing unprecedented financial pressures as a ...
Small businesses are getting greater certainty about access to finance with an extension to the interest-free cashflow loan scheme to the end of the year. The Small Business Cashflow Loan Scheme has already been extended once, to 24 July. Revenue and Small Business Minister Stuart Nash says it will be ...
A package of 23 projects across the country will clean up waterways and deliver over 2000 jobs Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Environment Minister David Parker announced today. The $162 million dollar package will see 22 water clean-up projects put forward by local councils receiving $62 million and the Kaipara ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Jensen, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, University of Canberra “Fake news” is not just a problem of misleading or false claims on fringe websites, it is increasingly filtering into the mainstream and has the potential to be ...
Around the world, western governments are re-calibrating their foreign policy, strategic and economic settings to China. Tomorrow the British Cabinet will review and probably revoke an earlier decision to allow Huawei Technologies Co into the next 5G network over security concerns. NZ and Australia have already taken this step. Over ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Becky Freeman, Senior Research Fellow, University of Sydney From next year, access to e-cigarettes and related products containing liquid nicotine will require a doctor’s prescription. This is to ensure liquid nicotine is handled like the poisonous, addictive substance it is and not ...
The new TVNZ On Demand political comedy relies on great performances to paper over a wafer-thin story, writes Jean Sergent.The set-up is simple: Darren Bellows (Tom Sainsbury), a Colin Craig-esque political loser, is being blackmailed by his dominatrix (Kathleen Burns). The stakes are high for Darren as the leader of ...
One in eight retail businesses are struggling to negotiate rent relief and want government-assisted arbitration to help them resolve their plight, a survey shows. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kris Gledhill, Professor of Law, Auckland University of Technology The sentencing of the Christchurch mosque killer was always going to be tense. Having admitted his guilt in March, his declaration that he would now represent himself at the hearing on August 24 ...
The Serious Fraud Office is investigating donations made to the Labour Party in 2017 Donations to the Labour Party in 2017 are now under the microscope of the Serious Fraud Office, the corruption watchdog said in a statement. The SFO declined to release any further details about the investigation. This ...
National Party stalwart Michelle Boag gave officials her private email address when asked where best to send a daily list of Covid-19 patients, the Director General of Health says. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kerrie Davies, Lecturer, School of the Arts & Media, UNSW Review: A Room Made of Leaves, Text Publishing Some time ago, during the renovation of a historic house in Sydney, a tin box, sealed with wax and wrapped in oiled canvas, ...
Whakamā refers to a state of personal or collective embarrassment and shame. Unabated shame can corrode the soul. Tikanga can fix and prevent it, writes Tainui Stephens.This story contains descriptions of racism and racist language.It seems to me some radio talkback hosts suffer from an empathy bypass: a quixotic condition ...
Today’s news that the mosque shooter will represent himself at his sentencing next month has raised fears he plans to use it as a platform for his hateful views. But the judge may have other ideas, write Otago University professors Danica McGovern and Andrew GeddisIn March of this year, the ...
The Say Nope To Dope campaign is slamming the government for its voting pack on the cannabis referendum, and is seeking legal advice. “We’ve been contacted by a number of families who believe that the government pamphlet is putting their own ...
The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is throwing shade on the Green Party’s new policies to install solar panels on state houses and subsidise them for private residences, which would cost taxpayers $806,000,000 over three years. Taxpayers Union spokesperson ...
Latest from the Beehive – One of the less challenging jobs for a Minister of the Crown is dipping into a trough within his ministerial gift and hoping for favourable headlines by dishing out grants. Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford – who has fallen short of counting Kiwbuild and Auckland ...
People from immigrant backgrounds often struggle to find work in New Zealand, despite their qualifications. So why is the Office of Ethnic Communities looking for people to do its work for free, asks former race relations commissioner Joris de Bres.Last week, the Office of Ethnic Communities announced on Facebook that ...
New Zealanders can’t get enough of The Chase, so why can’t we have our own version? And what would a homegrown version of the quiz show look like anyway? If The Chase were a pandemic, we’d all have herd immunity by now. The British TV quiz show has never been ...
In less than a week, Auckland Council will vote on an emergency budget that looks set to deliver severe cuts to facilities and services across the city. And still pleas for a commitment on shovel ready projects go unheeded by government, writes councillor Desley Simpson.As a country we can feel ...
The gunman of the Christchurch mosque attacks has chosen to represent himself at his sentencing next month. In March, Brenton Tarrant made a late guilty plea to 51 charges of murder, 40 of attempted murder and one under the Terrorism Suppression Act. He is due to be sentenced on 24 ...
A road freight industry representative says a new announcement that negotiations will be extended - again - is further confirmation that something is not right with the project An announcement that a new cash payout will extend negotiations and 'winter works' even further than first thought is being heralded as a sign ...
By Hamish Cardwell, RNZ News Grey Power is enraged by what it says is the “stupid and dangerous” behaviour of people fleeing managed isolation facilities, and says they need the book thrown at them. A person broke a window and absconded from an Auckland hotel on Friday, the fourth such ...
Crowd entertainment at sports games is a hard task, but please let’s stick to T-shirt cannons and on-field japes instead of watching strangers smooch, eh?Funny kiss cam footage is a key element of any viral fail video compilation. A “she’s my sister” sign pulled out of a pocket as the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rohan Clarke, Director, Monash Drone Discovery Platform, and Senior Lecturer in Ecology, Monash University This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jess Marsh, Research fellow at the Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Lintermans, Associate professor, University of Canberra This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s bushfire tragedy. Explore ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodi Rowley, Curator, Amphibian & Reptile Conservation Biology, Australian Museum This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Matisoo-Smith, Professor of Biological Anthropology, University of Otago How did the Polynesian peoples come to live on the far-flung islands of the Pacific? The question has intrigued researchers for centuries. Norwegian explorer Thor Heyerdahl brought the topic to public attention when ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Phillips, Associate Professor, Centre for Social Research and Methods, Director, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Australian National University New research on disadvantage in Australia has found the gap between rich and poor is very wide in Sydney, while much of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Peters, Associate Professor of Wildlife Health and Pathology, Charles Sturt University This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that launched this week. The project tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wee Tiong Seah, Associate Professor in Mathematics Education, University of Melbourne On Sunday, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced government school students in prep to Year 10 in metropolitan Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire will learn from home for term three. The remote ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phillippa Carnemolla, Senior Research Fellow, School of the Built Environment, University of Technology Sydney The stated purpose of the Morrison government’s HomeBuilder program is to stimulate the economy and create construction jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our research shows home improvements could ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Davidson, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, UNSW Suddenly, the idea of a “job guarantee” is back in vogue. Lawyer, academic, land rights activist and founder of the Cape York Institute Noel Pearson has come out of it favour of it, University of Newcastle ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ann Kayis-Kumar, Senior Lecturer and Tax Clinic Director, School of Taxation & Business Law, UNSW For some people tax time will result in no tax paid this year, and if past years are anything to go by, about 50 of them will ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philip C. Almond, Emeritus Professor in the History of Religious Thought, The University of Queensland From the 11th century onwards, the Legend of Barlaam and Josaphat enjoyed a popularity in the medieval West attained perhaps by no other legend. It was available ...
For all The Spinoff’s latest coverage of Covid-19 see here. Read Siouxsie Wiles’s work here. New Zealand is currently in alert level one – read about what that means here. For official government advice, see here.The Spinoff’s coverage of the Covid-19 outbreak is made possible thanks to donations from Spinoff Members. To support this ...
Investors still betting massive money-printing, despite growing fears of second wave lock-downs in America, India and Brazil, and as Australian cases spike ...
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Self-inflicted story puts National on the defensive, another escape attempt from managed isolation, and a series of party events ahead of election.There’s a convention in journalism called Betteridge’s law of headlines. Basically what it means is that headlines that end in ...
Stephen Hoadley on how Donald Trump has moved the US from its decades-old role of international leadership, and why it might not be easy for a President Biden to restore that mantle. US elections and the resulting presidencies can be geopolitical turning points, whether reflecting them or causing them. Successive ...
The ACT party held its campaign launch in Auckland on Sunday and unveiled new policies, with a new team it hopes will bring a return to the days when it was more than a one man band. Mark Jennings reports. If the number of people paying to attend a political ...
Nicky Pellegrino and Stacy Gregg continue their podcast interview series with popular New Zealand writers. This week: Amy McDaid, the author of Fake Baby. Auckland’s Amy McDaid is an exciting new talent on our literary scene. Her debut novel, Fake Baby, strikes an elegant balance between dark comedy and compassion. ...
Is it finally time for Pacific rugby to come in from the cold in a new Super Rugby competition? Jim Kayes says it's time to believe. In Samuel Beckett’s play Waiting for Godot, the two lead characters wait on a country road, by a tree, for Godot’s arrival. He never ...
A broken foot threatened to derail sailor Alex Maloney's second Olympic campaign. But she's back on track, with a little help from her brother and his America's Cup team-mates. From now on, Alex Maloney will always seek a second opinion. Without it, the Rio Olympics sailing silver medallist saw her ...
How authoritarian rule is applied to Hong Kong may make New Zealanders question whether closer interactions with China are necessarily desirable, writes Catherine Churchman Get ready for some in-your-face political repression, New Zealand. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) has just extended its draconian rules on free speech and freedom ...
Using technology remotely to care for patients can go way beyond Zoom calls or basic telehealth measures. Professor Simon Malpas explains how tech can start to even out inequity in healthcare. Imagine you live in Ahipara, Northland. You also have early stage heart failure. It’s a 90-minute drive to your ...
With an election now less than 10 weeks away, the National Party is confronting the very real prospect of a crushing defeat, writes Pattrick Smellie for BusinessDesk.Only two things can now save Todd Muller and the National Party from the growing likelihood of a crushing defeat at the September 19 ...
It’s long past time we officially recognised the Māori new year on Māori land, writes Laura O’Connell Rapira.In May, Jacinda Ardern said more public holidays for Kiwis to experience Aotearoa New Zealand is among a number of things the government is “actively considering” to encourage domestic tourism.With many small businesses ...
The Kiwi nurse working in conflict zones, helping war-wounded, and improving hospital systems was forced to do a major pivot when Covid-19 hit Afghanistan. Gail Corbett tells Laura Walters about living her life in some of the world’s most dangerous places, and what keeps her going back. Gail Corbett was ...
This is a story about a Chinese shipwreck, the Māori guardians of the bones, and the documentary maker who' has upset two cultures with his efforts to tell the tale. Is a shipwreck with the bones of 499 Chinese miners a sacred gravesite or a part of history that should be ...
From RNZ Mediawatch New Zealand children use a lot less Kiwi media than they used to. New research shows its Netflix, YouTube and TikTok engaging their eyeballs big time these days. If our kids screen out our local media, what does the future hold for them? The news media seized ...
The Tahr Foundation has released a short video that shows just what Himalayan tahr mean to Kiwis and why so many people are fighting so hard to maintain them in New Zealand. The video is a powerful reminder of the extent that tahr are now woven into ...
Introduction Thank you very much. Elections in New Zealand – like everywhere - are a very special tradition, because they are driven by you. They’re an opportunity to change your future. If you think about it, the Government doesn’t do much. It ...
“This election and Covid-19 present New Zealanders with an opportunity to change their future and create a fair, modern employment insurance scheme,” says ACT’s Employment Spokesperson, and third-ranked candidate, Nicole McKee. “Covid-19 has ...
“A new approach to mental health and addiction will reduce bureaucracy, improve patient choice, and empower New Zealanders,” says ACT’s Deputy Leader and Health Spokesperson Brooke van Velden. “Each year, the government spends about $2 billion ...
"Working people have signaled their commitment to do more to address the most pressing issue of our time; climate change. The energy policies that the Green Party have launched today provide a meaningful contribution to addressing climate change," ...
Climate justice organisation 350 Aotearoa welcomes the Greens' plan to transform Aotearoa’s energy system and set Aotearoa on course towards a fossil-fuel free future in which workers are supported into new jobs, and communities have the power ...
The Old Guard, new to Netflix, is a resounding success because it doesn’t focus on what makes these heroes great, it focuses on what makes them human, writes Sam Brooks.The climax of Netflix’s new movie The Old Guard shouldn’t be anything new, but it feels exhilarating. The titular old guard, ...
Open mike 01/11/09 
The Serious Fraud Office has announced that it is investigating the Labour Party over donations it received in 2017. Which means the three largest parties in Parliament are all now either being investigated or prosecuted for donation fraud. The only parties who aren't are the Greens and ACT. As ...3 hours ago
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Dr Kim Handley, University of Auckland Just how do cyanobacteria live in their natural habitat, and how do they coexist with other bacteria and microbial life forms? And what difference will knowledge on this bacteria have on maintaining New Zealand’s water quality? One of the consequences of declining water quality ...8 hours ago
Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Climate Feedback Article Review... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... Global temperatures could exceed crucial 1.5 C target in the next five years In this aerial view ...8 hours ago
National has a problem. And it’s time they said it out loud. It can’t be dismissed as a one-off anymore or excused because ‘everyone does it’. No, it cuts deeper than that. National has an ethics problem. Especially when it comes to privacy and using ordinary people as pawns in ...1 day ago
The Council of Disobedient Women There is a regular segment in the Speak Up For Women podcasts called “Absolutely Blasted Mad Moment of the Week”. Each podcast the speaker and the host discuss a recent event that is the most insane thing they have seen in the gender critical space ...2 days ago
Todd Muller - Dishonest National Party leaderIt seems that dishonest Todd Muller is, like many right-wing politicians, entirely morally bankrupt. I mean just look at the National Party’s leaking omni-shambles over the last week or so. They’ve imploded in a spectacular display of backfiring dirty politics, the likes of which ...2 days ago
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Reading this mornings Herald online i see that Rodney Hide is even a bigger liar and hypocrite that was first reported. It now seems that Ms Crome lives with him in Wellington during the week.
Makes his claim about time for MP’s relationships a bit hollow!
But doesn’t she go away on playing tours? so they have to grab what time together they can. For such a hard working person, like most MPs, I think it is completely reasonable that they should travel together when they can.
Yeah, I think it is the “say one thing when in opposition, do the opposite when in government” approach that Rodney is taking that seems to be the issue. There is a single word that sums it up and it begins with “H”.
Oh, and it bugs me that Rodney has tried to justify his travel allowance by saying “it didn’t come from the trough we have been told not to use, it came from a different one that we are allowed to use”.
JK set the principle – “if you want to take your partner, pay for them yourself.” Which is quite different to “if you want to take your partner, take it from a different trough.” In the end it is all taxpayer funded. I mostly pay two different kinds of tax (income tax and GST), it goes to thousands of different places and I don’t get, or want, a detailed breakdown of how it is spent. But spending taxpayer money on travel is spending taxpayer money on travel, irrespective of whether it comes through a ministers account or an MPs account. To be consistent with the PM’s direction, Rodney should have paid for his partner’s travel himself. If he pays back the amount and apologises that might go some way, otherwise I will have to conclude that the PM does not mean what he says.
I must agree… Come on Rodney:pay it back!
Lets get the whole Rodney thing back where it should be. The whole travel thing is a siideshow and distraction. It is not going to sink him, it merely shows him for what he is, a blown up in your face frick you egomaniac.
More to the point this whole thing is having a smokescreen effect on the real issue, that Hide is colluding with Auckland big business in an undemocratic way to strip the people of their assetts. ARC and councils (aka the Auckland regions ratepayers) currently own as much capital wealth as the whole NZSX, and these larcenists want it. They also then want you to pay forr the capital they need to bankroll the larceny over the forseeable future through such devices as privatised water bodies.
Is the electorate so thick as to not care? .
When will Labour ever come clean, determined to drop below the Greens.
Another MP poll-busted
4:00AM Sunday Nov 01, 2009
By Matt Nippert
A second Labour MP has been implicated in the fake-name polling scandal uncovered last week by the Herald on Sunday.
The volunteer who came forward last week to blow the whistle said she was recruited by MP Iain Lees-Galloway, who was also present when the polling took place.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10606597
Yawn
Well STOP THE PRESS!
And here’s me thinking the Deputy PM and Minister of Finance thieving thousands and thousands from the public purse was bad.
If you start to criticise another member of parliament for alleged lying, you need to make sure you are perfect!
Three out of four people surveyed agreed that Doug was beating a dead horse over this issue.
LOL. Aren’t you assuming “Doug” is his real name?
Don’t think this is purely a Labour thing. What is implied when National choose not to attack over this. Even Gerry Brownlee on Morning Report (RNZ) suggested that this was a beat-up.
When it comes to the climate change debate, the common criticism I have seen is that contrary evidence can’t be accepted because it hasn’t been peer reviewed.
I want to take the opportunity to point out that the peer review process isn’t all its cracked up to be, and that the published evidence in any field can provide an extremely distorted picture due to a number of potential biases in the process.
A common bias is the positivity bias. This bias means that reviewers tend to prefer to publish research that shows a positive effect rather than research that shows no effect. However, in reality, the research that shows no effect can be just as important as research that shows a positive effect. Here is an article from another field, medicine, that provides empirical evidence of the problem:
http://blogs.openaccesscentral.com/blogs/bmcblog/entry/publication_bias_on_location_at
This bias is potentially very serious for the field of climate change. This is because the null hypothesis will often be something like “observed changes are due to natural variability”. Thus, any research that confirms the null hypothesis is much less likely to be published, potentially providing a skewed view of reality. Lets assume that the research was 50/50 either way. In that case I would expect there to be much more published research in favour of climate change, than against it due to the positivity bias alone.
There are several other relevant biases that are likely to have an impact:
For instance, the name and affiliation of a research can have a substantial effect on whether an article is published:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1200/is_18_169/ai_n26698930/
Thus, if most reviewers hold a position of supporting the climate change debate, it is less likely they will accept research from those with contrary views, regardless of the objective merits of the research.
Another possibility arising from these types of biases is that even scientists who support climate change are less likely to put forward research if it fails to find an effect from climate change. This is because they are likely to fear being seen in the camp of “the deniers” simply because their research has not found an effect.
Thus, relying only on published peer reviewed literature leaves people open to getting a skewed view of reality, especially in a field such as climate change where there are very polarised views.
Peer review is as you say not what it is always cracked up to be. It is best described as a ‘necessary but not sufficient condition’. Peer review weeds out papers with bad errors and basic mistakes, however it’s also obvious that the process is not foolproof and that for a number of reasons, flawed work can and does get published.
The perils of positivity and confirmation bias are drummed into every undergraduate student. While they are a real and present danger, they are strongly guarded against. Any working researcher who is shown to make this basic kind of error too often, will quickly find their career at an end.
Scientists are not a uniform group who all think exactly alike. A consensus is just that, a model or line of thought that is agreed upon at that point in time… but no more than that. Every individual scientist has their own opinions, view points and line of attack on the problems. The idea of white coated hordes all trapped into the same hive mentality is so much nonsense.
Indeed, given the profile of the AGW issue… there would be enormous rewards and several Nobel prizes for anyone who could conclusively prove that all the data really could be explained by natural variation alone, and that humans really could pump as much CO2 into the atmosphere and the resulting excess IR absorbtion would have no effect. Yet so far no-one has been able to do this.
Really this whole argument boils down to three options:
1. The large majority of qualified and experienced climate scientists have independently concluded that AGW is a real and threatening phenomonon.
2. The large majority of qualified and experienced climate scientists have suddenly and mysteriously all lost competency at what they do, that they all made a whole lot of errors, across many different approaches to AGW, that have all independently reached the same wrong conclusion.
3. The large majority of qualified and experienced climate scientists are all secretly colluding together to hoax the world in order to gain secure access to funding. And that no-one has so far been able to produce concrete evidence of this massive conspiracy.
“The large majority of qualified and experienced climate scientists are all secretly colluding together to hoax the world in order to gain secure access to funding.”
This is what tsmithfield is saying.
Exaggerated claims undermine drive to cut emissions, scientists warn.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/earth-environment/article6896152.ece
Interesting stuff Doug.
What they are saying is that if people make claims that cannot be proven, or are easily questioned, other dishonest fuckwits will use that as a reason to do nothing, which would be a disaster.
This is because the null hypothesis will often be something like “observed changes are due to natural variability’.
Umm it is clear that you’ve never been around science much.
Your medical analogy is strained because the vast majority of medical research is funded by medical providers like drug and medical equipment companies. They don’t like publishing null hypotheses (ie it didn’t do anything or was detrimental) about their products – so it doesn’t get to peer review. It is pretty much a case of why the profit motivation of the market isn’t that good at doing basic research (and great for simple engineering research).
By contrast most of the earth sciences research comes from various not-for-profit bodies, largely with tenure, and with few commercial attachments. Most of the participants are more than mildly cantankerous, and enjoy taking the contary positions if there was evidence to support it. The usual struggle is to get a place to publish rather than getting past reviewers. Reviewers tend to prefer letting through contary positions with substantiated evidence to papers on known material because to disagree with evidence is science.
With the CCD ‘scientists’, what is always interesting about them consists of several factors.
1. They usually have some quite interesting commercial links.
2. They literally never have new data, just reinterpretations of old data.
3. Their reinterpretations don’t have testable predictions.
In other words they are crank critics, not scientists. That is mainly why they don’t present papers to reviewers, and when they do, they don’t get published. The quality is too damn poor.
Most of the participants are more than mildly cantankerous,
LOL… that is for fracken sure. (Thinking back to the five years I actually worked for some geo-phsycists.)
erm, no. Just about any pattern in the world is made up of a ton of contributing factors, and a lot of work is done in trying to tease out what these factors are. ‘Natural variability’ is not any sort of nailed down constant, it’s a huge & complex soup, with a few strong contenders for the ingredients list. A lot of climate change study is not focussed on AGW, but paleoclimatology, which is about the only place where you can look at a range of time scales and evidence to ease out what some of these ingredients are on different time scales. These range from plate tectonics (for eg. the opening of the Drake Passage & formation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current), to Milankovic cycles to Solar activity. What is typical is that not one pattern explains the variation seen in proxy records, particularly as the mechanisms are often indirect; what you can get however, is an idea of how much of the pattern you’re interested in (for example global temperature patterns over time) is explained by the factor you’re looking at, and what the ‘residuals’ are, that is the left over bits.
I have a pattern of setting my alarm for 6:20 AM on weekday mornings, but actual real world results don’t match this. If I compare the real world results with the predicted results, I’m left with the odd discrepancy – the odd days when I forgot to switch the alarm on (or the weekends when I forgot to switch it off!), power cuts etc might explain the variation that would not have been expected.
What I’m getting at is that determining these sorts of residuals & what causes them in climate data (be it global anomalies or local variation) are results, it doesn’t just come down to null vs alternative hypothesis. Secondly, it’s not that difficult to frame a null hypothesis in the other way, and I’d be surprised if no-one has eg have your null hypothesis as Anthropogenic Global Warming explaining the variation, vs your alternative hypothesis being solar activity (or whatever natural variability factor/s you’re looking at) explaining the same better and bingo; if AGW explains the pattern better then you might have a problem getting it published, if solar activity explains the pattern better you have a result.
In reality you don’t get a whole lot of studies on ‘AGW or ‘natural variability’ as a whole, and nor as an simple either/ o proposition. What you get is people looking at where the data doesn’t fit the best matching patterns (CO2 concentrations & orbital geometry) and looking into why this is, ie what the residuals might be caused by.
You won’t find many climate scientists who don’t believe in natural variability, but you will find that no-one has managed to explain observed warming trends by natural variability alone. As Redlogix points out above, there’s no shortage of incentive for someone to do this.
Just like there was no shortage of incentive to find that tobacco smoke doesn’t contribute to ill health, and certainly no lack of support for those scientists who found it worth their while to find no evidence of harmful effects.
Include John Key in this scam since Rodney “checked” with him twice before setting off on his perk trip with live in girlfriend. Why? Maybe a little voice was telling him THIS IS WRONG! Attempts to justify this episode prove Key & Hide lack integrity. SHAME on them both when there are NZers financially struggling.
Exactly CC, why would an experienced politician check anything with the leader of another party, let alone twice, unless he had misgivings?
Pecuniary Interests.
What is the difference between Blinglish’s family trust and Jonkey’s family trust? I gather that when Tranzrail questions were being asked in the house the defence was that the questioner had no pecuniary interest in the trust that held the shares.
To eat meat or not … a question with regard to global warming.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/31/opinion/31niman.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th
yeah, or to eat less meat, or to eat different meat.
For my part I can walk 5 minutes away and buy wild venison/ bacon/ goat/ rabbit; to my mind you can’t get more environmentally friendly than that. Not that everyone’s so lucky with their local shopping. It’s certainly a lot more environmentally friendly than my more sanctimonious vegetarian friends who eat lots and lots of cheese (bobby calves, stream pollution etc).
Interesting thinkpiece on global economy from Prof Robert Wade, NZ with London School of Economics affiliate aptly acronymed DESTIN (discussing our future likely destiny which can not be fully predicted, so the ‘Y’ is left hanging?). Can hear on radionz from Chris Laidlaw Sunday morning prog.
Has the Rod Oram sound, careful, considered thinking around the problems and possibly solutions. The future isn’t great, a W effect in global finance, and we now are in the middle – likely to go down again in 2010/11 when the effect of the stimulus from govts fades, and those are unlikely to be similarly repeated. More war activity from USA. Sounds feasible looking at past history. Good insightful stuff.
You are right.
I thought it was Oram for a while. He certainly had the same deep thoughtful way of expressing himself.
When are we going to have more updates on the cycleway, cost “to date” and the number of jobs that’ve been created?
I must have been so busy working that I missed them.
Don’t ya see Ak nut? The cycleway was a ploy to distract and give the Left something to debate while the serious stuff is deflected. Cunning plan eh!
Use of the term ‘tipping point’ coined by Malcolm Gladwell in his 2000 book of that name which describes “the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable” (wikipedia), has reached a tipping point. Hereafter people who use the term shall be regarded as unimaginative imbeciles.
It’s great to be clever on this site but wouldn’t it make a lot more sense to be firing this type of thing thru to Granny Herald or the like to get those rags to be held accountable for their lack of investigative journalism into the likes of the Rodney Hide rorts or the disgraceful self promotion of the finance minister? And where was the outcry from the media when 500 health jobs disappeared due to restructuring? The converted are being preahced to here. With the govt’s honeymoon going way beyond what is normal, now is the time to be bombarding the media with the type of comments made on this site.