- Date published:
6:00 am, March 3rd, 2023 - 69 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:
Open mike is your post.
For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.
The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).
Step up to the mike …
Good onya Minister Michael Wood and Labour ! Great idea and implementation. Keep this up : )
There is something not right in Rob Campbell's employment woes.
It seems unjust that the public knew anout his pending sacking from EPA in the day or two before it happened. RNZ had a Craig McCulloch saying a spokesperson for Minister Parker told McCulloch that his firing was pending.
Expect to see Labour's red colours to become more mauve as the election nears.
Edit; this probably didn’t help;
Heresy–cracking down on bludging, parasitic consultants.
John Tamihere has a new podcast and had Rob Campbell on in episode #3…
and on Apple etc. of course…
Rob was refreshingly honest.
This seems to be a shoot-yourself-in-the-foot action from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development.
They commissioned an opinion poll asking landlords why they increased rents. Unsurprisingly, the vast majority cited increased costs – due to Government policy changes, and mortgage rises. [Whether that's the 'true' reason or not, it's the obvious answer when asked for an opinion]
This appears to be a gift to the opposition, without any compensating benefit to the Government in additional data to fine tune policies.
The government policy related reasons were not a vast majority, or even a majority at all.
I'm no statistician but the 32% and 26% are not cumulative because they will mostly be the same people citing both (they could cite multiple reasons).
Mortgage payments are not a cost, but essentially an investment. Therefor they should not be a reason for increases in rent.
Any “landlord” knowing there is a fixed cost ought to have their mortgages fixed at the lowest rate possible for the longest period. Add in roughly 10% for yoy increases for rates and insurance, and annual maintenance of roughly 5% of property value, its fairly easy to calculate what rent should be for the next 5 years at a minimum. Any annual increases is just greed.
If rent controls were to be introduced I think they should be set at an amount sufficient to cover expenses such as rates, insurance, maintenance, administration (if appropriate), but not interest (which is really the landlord's concern – the tenant should not be expected to pay extra rent simply because the landlord has taken out a large loan in order to get into the residential rental business). Add to that an appropriate percentage to provide the landlord with a margin of profit.
The greedy being greedy, cherry picking excuses for their greed.
Who would have thought the herald would have given this so much coverage.
I see this coverage, and people who promote it, as just more dirty politics.
Is there a new poll out next week? If so, the Herald will be in overdrive putting its thumb on the scales – and then talking endlessly about the poll afterwards if it favours their side. A pretty standard tactic from them.
Looks like Bahkmut is about to fall to Wagner PMC forces…5000+ Ukrainian troops (many just territorials) in danger of encirclement, will Volodymyr Zelenskyy give the order to withdraw in time?..time is running out fast.
Here is an update from Defense Politics Asia, one of the best and most neutral mappers on the net…though neutrality in analysis on this particular topic seems to be a dirty word for many on this site.
Just like the word 'detente' or even more shockingly the words 'peace negotiations' have become a dirty words in Liberal circles, preferring the staunch backing of more death and destruction in Ukraine (well as long as it's Ukrainian men and boys being killed and destroyed, and not their own I assume)….As you can see, I still can't get over how seamlessly the Liberal class have become the most Hawkish/Ghoulish single class of people in the West…it was obvious for all who cared to observe that this class had gone wrong through the Trump years…but I personally never guessed just how broken they had become.
…you only have to listen to someone like Kim Hill (or RNZ in general) once or twice on pretty much any Geopolitical subject to see how hyper reactionary and bloodthirsty the Liberal class has become today…yep up is down now, black is white..or should I say left is right?
Anyway, for those interested in a reasonably neutral look at the sage unfolding on the ground in Bakhmut, here you go…
Reports I have seen suggest the Ukrainians have been gradually withdrawing from Bakhmut.
I have heard the "rumours" of Ukrainian rebellion as well. Just remember, as the report says, these rumours are being reported by the Russian side, that puts up ludicrous, totally obvious, false flag videos such as this. So, anything coming from the Russian side needs to be taken with truckloads of salt.
Most commentators (including military strategists) I have seen are a bit bemused about why Russia is putting so much effort on Bakhmut as it is strategically insignificant. The Ukrainians have been using Bakhmut to burn Russian combat power. The Russian losses have been huge, often involving full frontal assaults with convicts who are treated as cannon fodder.
So, Ukraine will likely lose Bakhmut after six months or so of defending a relatively small, insignificant town. But what does that say about the capability of the Russian military that it has taken them so long to accomplish such a trivial task?
Looking at the big picture, even if Bakhmut falls, as it seems it will, the amount of territory Russia has gained since it lost Kherson prior to Christmas, has been absolutely negligible.
The interesting thing will be to see what happens when the Ukrainians have favourable conditions for their own counter-offensive, and is able to deploy all the new weaponry from the west (Leopard tanks etc).
This war has run a predictable cycle thus far:
Phase 1. The Russians batter themselves senseless for minimal gains against determined Ukrainian defenders, thus weakening their capabilities.
Phase 2. The Ukrainians exploit the resulting Russian weakness with counter offensives that reclaim huge amounts of Ukrainian territory (e.g., Russians being routed around Kyiv, Russians being routed around Karkhiv, Russians withdrawing from Kherson).
We are currrently witnessing Phase 1. It won't be long before the Ukrainians have their turn.
"The Ukrainians exploit the resulting Russian weakness with counter offensives that reclaim huge amounts of Ukrainian territory"…I very much doubt that is going to happen…but what do I know.
I do know this though..the Leopard tanks, in the numbers that are going to be provided and with amount of time for training/retraining the crews are going to only play an insignificant part in this war…infact the way the West goes on about new weapon systems changing the inevitable direction this war will play out, reminds one of the German high command from '43 onwards.
I believe most serious commentators suggest the only possible way the Ukrainians could (maybe) defeat Russia, is with large scale NATO troop deployment…and surely not even the most demented Liberal warmonger wants that?…ie; WW3…but then who knows how crazed the defenders of Western hegemony have become..
…actually quite crazed according to Malaysia’s longest-serving Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad….
“the present war between Ukraine and Russia is caused by the Europeans’ love of war, of hegemony, of dominance”. He warned it “can be interpreted as the start of the Third World War”.
Get a grip mate. The "crazed defenders of western hegemony" aren't the ones blowing up civilians and committing war crimes.
The defenders of Putin OTOH… 🤯
In case you missed it …here are the defenders of Western hegemony that I am pointing out…but you might know them already I think..they are the same ones who just gave us 20 years of war Afghanistan..even today arm and facilitate an endless civil war in Yemen, armed extremist head choppers in Syria..probably still do?….and of course, set the Middle East on fire with Iraq and lots lots lots more…
..but for some reason known only to yourself, you would have us all believe that these same violent extremists, with a track record that would make even the most brutal dictator proud, are now arming the Ukrainians for altruistic/moral/ethical reasons…mate the only one around here who needs to get a grip on reality is you my friend….the longer this NATO proxy war in Ukraine goes on, the happier the US war machine and it's close military allies are…the US thrives on endless war, or haven't you worked that out yet?
‘Al Qaeda is on our side’: how Obama/Biden team empowered terrorist networks in Syria
Former Israeli PM Bennett says U.S. ‘blocked’ his attempts at a Russia-Ukraine peace deal
Former German Chancellor Merkel admits the Minsk agreement was merely to buy time for Ukraine’s arms build-up
Washington owes world an explanation of Nord Stream explosion
So, even if that were all true, how does it justify Russia invading Ukraine and committing large numbers of war crimes?
I don’t whataboutism does you much favours in justifying your position.
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Estonia give far more of their annual defense budget (and GDP) to arm Ukraine than the USA, UK, France etc.
All former victims of Russian colonisation, who know what it means.
NATO proxy war? Weird way to think about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "NATO made me do it"?
Hang on, didn't the USSR have it's own conflict with the Afghani people first? One could argue that they started that generational war.
I notice the "peace lovers" who go on about peace talks and moan about Ukrainian and western "war mongering", don't loudly condemn Russia for its attack (cause of the war) and loudly demand Russia withdraws its military from Ukraine (will end war).
Instead they seem to back Russia, rather than peace.
Not only Leopard 2 tanks, but also the British Challengers, and a large number of upgraded Soviet tanks I think Poland is supplying. And, probably more importantly, the Bradley and Stryker fighting vehicles.
Anyway, you should go back and look at how the Ukrainians made rapid progress into the Kherson region. That was with a concentration of a number of tanks focussed on a specific area.
I think that is how they will make progress in their next offensive as well. I expect they will concentrate their superior equipment on a specific strategic area to force a significant break through.
Mahathir is an interesting choice. He has this much in common with Putin – nothing is ever his fault, and he has essentially chosen to be president for life. His handling of the Asian financial crisis was astute, but, like Trump, his utterances may be geared more for personal than public interest.
Bakhmut is a little more important than that. This map here explains the importance of Bakhmut as it shows the main heavily fortified lines of the Ukrainians in this region. This also explains importance of the Ukrainian victory in the Kharkiv offensive last September. The Russian attempts to recapture Lyman (and thence, one would imagine, Izium – time may pass but the terrain is a constant) only make sense if they have a plan for a grand encirclement of the Donets region with two pincers aimed at Barinvinkove. If the Russians are able to exploit a breakthrough at Bakhmut they can potentially outflank the very heavily fortified zones the Ukrainians have constructed by pushing to the west and south of Kramatorsk – not fatal since the September counter offensive but it would be a worrying development.
Having said that, I doubt the ability of the Russians to engage in a large scale manoeuvre warfare exploitation of any opportunity presented by the fall of Bakhmut. The Donets region is at defensive dream, with numerous settlements that can be easily fortified and the general terrain of this part of the world offers endless strong positions. The recent Russian successes may have possibly come about due to a recent change in Russian infantry tactics, with the use of Wagner style infiltration tactics. These new tactics are essentially a re-invention of German WW1 stormtrooper tactics. These tactics are effective in breaking into and through a fortified zone, but as the Germans discovered in WW1 during the 1918 "Kaisers battle" offensives when using these tactics converting a breakthrough to a breakout is extremely difficult, and the elite Stormtroopers suffer heavy casualties. The loss of so many of your best troops eventually has a considerable blowback when the enemy counterattacks units that have been reduced to second or third class status by the stripping out of their best men and equipment.
However, at the moment I would assess that these new assault tactics being used by the remaining high quality units (paratroopers etc) of the Russian army are too hot for the poorly trained Ukrainian territorial units to handle. But the Russians are suffering heavy losses of hard to replace men attacking poorly trained recruits, which can’t go on for much longer. In the attritional battle even if the Ukrainians are losing heavily themselves in their territorial units they are far easier to replace with new recruits than Russia’s long service professionals.
Your first link doesn't open. But I am quite familiar with what you mean.
Bakhmut made a lot of sense when Russia held Lyman, because it gave the opportunity for a grand pincer movement to take the rest of the Donbass.
But, now, Russia doesn't have Lyman, and looks highly unlikely to get it back now that the ground conditions no longer favour their winter offensive.
I think there is a point to why Ukraine is defending Bakhmut. Firstly, it is fixing in place a lot of Russian forces that could have used elsewhere to better effect. Secondly, the Russians are losing a lot more forces due to them attacking strong defensive positions.
I have seen a lot of criticism that the Russians have been spreading their offensive over a far too large front line, and that they should have been focussing their forces on one or two strategic points. That is how Ukraine managed to make rapid progress.
But, at the moment, the Russians are just wasting a large amount of their combat power. Look at what is happening at Vuldhar. The Russians are continually attacking into a preprepared kill zone. At last count I think the Russians had lost 137 fighting vehicles to achieve nothing.
hmmmm, this link https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-370-summary/
Yep. That works.
It doesn't look like Bakhmut is a cakewalk for Russia, even now, btw.
I don't know if you follow this guy. But he seems to give the most detailed and accurate tactical information on what is going on.
It looks like the Ukrainians have reinforced the area, not by going into the Bakhmut cauldron, but rather by positioning to attack the Russian flanks of their pincer.
A big problem for the Russians in this scenario is that it isn't like they are creating a pincer movement with nothing outside of that. The Ukrainians have a lot of forces outside of Bakhmut that they can deploy as they need to upset the Russian plans. Plus, the Russian pincers are largely in open fields which makes them very vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery.
It would not surprise me at all if the Ukrainians counter attacked and pushed the Russians pincers back from Bakhmut, thus undoing a lot of what the Russians had been trying to achieve.
Thread on the catastrophic disruption of RU fighting vehicles.
From what I have seen, around Vuldhar, the Ukrainians have mined all the fields. That has forced the Russians to attack along the only road.
So, the rinse and repeat for the Ukrainians is to hit the lead vehicle. Because most of the Russian troops are noobs, they panic and swerve off the road, and run into mines.
From down thread on why munitions they're carrying all but guarantees catastrophic disruption.
Yes, those tanks and apcs are virtually steel coffins at the rate they are being destroyed. Can't be fun to be a Russian tankie.
Forget the western MBTs, Vuldhar tells us that without advanced demining combat AEVs like the M1150, or captured UR-77s, no armoured attack by either side is going to succeed even reaching the enemy main line of resistance (let alone achieve a mechanised breakthrough/breakout and subsequent operational freedom) if it has to attack across extensive minefields covered by unsuppressed observed artillery fire and crew served LAW/ATGW.
Unlocking such positions requires a level of skilled combined arms assault that I don't think either side has.
Given the right gear, a modern, well equipped army like any number of North Asian states, NATO or even Australia would make light work of these two sides. The Ukrainians are better than the Russian, but they are no NATO army.
Thinking about it, I guess you could do a thunder run with all those MRAPs the Ukrainians have received and use them for percussive clearance. No would be killed by setting off the mines, and follow them with tanks and APCs/MICVs.
I expect mine clearing equipment would have been included with the gear provided by the west, along with training for demining.
They obviously have managed so far with that in terms of their offensives in Karkhiv and Kherson. Also, preparing the assault through a few weeks of intense bombardment likely clears out some of the mines. And, the Ukrainians probably have intelligence on where the Russian minefields are.
But yeah, the MRAPs would come in handy in that respect as well.
If the Russians knew what they were doing, they'd gap minefields with TOS weapons. The US & Israel have cleared mines with FAE attacks.
Can you use FA to clear minefields?
Sure, You can clear a path with Artillery, mortars, even grenades and belts of machinegun fire. Will it be perfect? No, nothing is perfect. What’s better, getting a quick and risky path, or getting a perfectly clearly path. Fuel Air explosives can do a very good job of clearing a path.
The logical reason why the Russians have invested so much time, energy & manpower into Bakhmut. Is its the only major town in the Donbass not Russian hands?
So if the Ukrainian Army has used Bakhmut as form Delayed Defence & then quietly withdrawals from Bakhmut?
What would Russia be left with?
Plus the Ukrainian Army with it superior long range fires can DF Bakhmut & turn it into a living hell.
So far since the Ukrainian Autumn Offensive, Russia has managed only to recapture 85 Sq Km or 0.25% of Ukrainian Territory.
Not much to show for last 12mths since Russia invaded 🇺🇦
Rob Campbell has come out and said that he believes the real reason he was sacked from the two Crown Entity board roles, was that the Government is walking back from co-governance.
Does anyone think that is the case? That this is a strong signal that Hipkins is walking back the Ardern policy?
There's been a change in language and Mahuta was removed from local government, both presumably to stop scaring the racist horses on the right, but none of the co-governance policy has changed. Three Waters and Maori Health Authority still intact.
Did Campbell even mention co-governance in his LinkedIn post?
Post has now been removed – so I can't check, but my understanding that he did (indeed that was the context for the 'racist dog-whistling politics' comment)
The Taxdodgers’ Union still has a link to it.
Co-governance is in speech marks, to indicate its status as an instrument with which people like to politic.
Unbelievable that short little post caused so much fuss. And he only spoke the truth!
Speaking truth to power !!
The hypocritical NACT don't like that one little bit. Or, to quote Corporal Jones, "they don't like it up 'em!"
Campbell has done excellent political work for Labour now that he's done his exit-interviews.
His railing against the governments retreat on co-governance was sweet sweet reassurance to the ears of anxious Pakeha NZ.
World beaters in divorce rates, the thick end of 500,000 orphans, leading Europe in abortions per capita but still managed to convince far-right westerners you’re a bastion of traditional values.
Or is it the anti LGBT laws and the right to knock the fam around with impunity?
Russia is a ticking time bomb. Aside from the demographic collapse, Putin has also cratered the economy with his idiotic war. Happiness is down, alcoholism is up.
What a mess.
Russians are fewer, poorer and more miserable than a decade ago | The Economist
We are all being fleeced. Excess profit tax now.
Every New Zealander is spending $2000 a year on profits for the banks,
Many are probably spending a lot more than $2000, while many a lot less. What matters is whether each person's spending is reasonable with regard to his borrowing, and whether the implied ten billion of profits is reasonable with respect to the banks' turnover, and with respect to the amount of capital invested.
There's a Change Org petition in progress:
"Remove Hosking and Hawkesbury from Newstalk ZB".
Nearly 9000 have signed in past 3 days but they want 10,000 at least before presenting it. I can't find a direct link to actual petition. Maybe somebody else can?
It won't succeed of course but it's all good publicity for a good cause.
Yes. I did try that address but its not the part you sign. But maybe you can link from it to the actual petition.
I'm not well versed in linking procedures unless it is a direct cut and paste.
Hi Anne, I signed the ‘remove-HH’ petition after clicking on that link/address/URL.
Can't remember all the details (sorry), but definitely typed my name and email address into the appropriate boxes and then clicked on a red 'Sign this petition' button (that button also had a padlock symbol on it).
Once I had signed, the Change.org site remembered that I had signed and so doesn't display a 'Sign this petition' button when I revisit that link/address/URL.
Ahh – I use Firefox as my web browser, but I could get the 'Sign this petition' button back by opening a different web browser (Safari) and pasting that link into the address/URL window.
Just noticed that the petition was started by one of our former Mayors here in Palmerston North – go Heather Tanguay.
that is the link to the petition that can be signed. It might look different to you if you just signed.
Can you please explain what the problem was for you in linking and we'll see if we can help.
I’m okay for most of it, but ever since lprent had one of his big overhauls a year or two or three back, I don’t know how to replace link addresses with my own choice of words.
A complete and utter waste of time, ratings and advertising revenue trump any petition.
It got your attention, tho.
Rubbish – Campbell had ratings out the wazoo, but wretched RW idealogues crashed their channels trying to substitute in gamey specimens like Paul Henry instead.
The current idiot panels owe much to these policies – the public doesn't like their putrescent offerings, but will tolerate one or two as part of a group of wittering fools, for a while.
At least the current Prime Minister Hipkins has the courage to front up with them, rather than like Ardern retreat like a political coward because feelings, or worse do something as asinine as trying to ban the most popular radio hosts in the country for actually doing nothing other than have an opinion the moist left don't agree with.
Just signed, felt good.
Does anyone know if these two or any of the other imbeciles at ZB who downplayed the cyclone have apologised yet?
Don't think so. Types like them shut up for a while until they think everyone has forgotten about it, then they do it over again.
Kim Hill interviews young Ch.Ch spokesperson re- the proposed Climate Action school strike planned for this afternoon:
What a refreshing change from the pitiful HdPA attempt of a few weeks ago.
Please tell me this "Axe the APP TAX" is just more BS from National? There's no way a sane Labour caucus would introduce a new tax now?
It's not a new tax, it's getting the GST from things like Uber and AirBnB. Funny when national broadened the GST take, and taxed children there was never this level of outcry.
Welcome to dirty politics — 2023 edition —
Sure. So as I understand it I already pay GST when I use a service like Uber anyway. It's just that if the contractor earns less than $60k PA as a sole trader or company or partnership they do not have to deal with passing the GST on to the government? I mean I claim GST on Uber rides as a GST registered sole trader… ispo facto there is a GST component even if the contractor I engage via Uber is not registered for GST. So exactly what is the proposed change?
Why Minister Parker thinks he can get away with this "adjustment" when he was busted three months ago doing something very similar as an "adjustment" is unfathomable.
Can we please get a decent Minister of Revenue?
Russell would be the actual qualified obvious choice since Parker and Roberston are clearly overloaded.
The minister was quite right to propose the "adjustment". It was public pressure that induced him to change his mind. He should have stood his ground but when unreason rules, and the "great unwashed" are sharpening their pitchforks, what else could he do but back down.
The GST system works because the GST claimed back from the government is offset by the GST paid by the contractor. If the contractor is not charging you GST and handing the proceeds to the government then the government is losing money. It sounds fraudulent to me.
Besides, you have to be able to produce GST invoices, as evidence of GST paid, to recover GST from the government. The contractor cannot supply a GST invoice unless he is charging you GST.
You do not need to get a GST invoice for amounts under $50. In fact now you don't need to produce anything but electronic proof, period. Unless something is zero rated anything you buy includes GST and you are perfectly entitled to claim the GST content of that expense against GST received. Imagine the chaos of only being able to accept rides from taxi and uber drivers who are GST registered.
Have a giggle about the Gig Tax: https://bills.parliament.nz/v/6/d5894797-4e05-4cd5-a11e-0b28520e3a19?Tab=history
Worth a listen to Kate Hannah of the NZ Disinformation Project. She gives an overview of the intersection and proliferation of conspiracy theories and anti-vax and anti-government rhetoric. Her analysis towards the end (15 min onwards) points a big finger to international far-right democracy disrupters in building movement momentum in NZ.
Stuff youtube interview of Kate Hannah
DeSantis's Florida – basically Putins Russia but with theme parks. And remember, DeSantis is the front runner for the GOP presidential nomination next year.
Great thread, full of common sense
Trolling & gaslighting the NZ public with drag shows involving children, hmm i don’t see how that could backfire 🤔