Open mike 04/05/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, May 4th, 2023 - 42 comments
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42 comments on “Open mike 04/05/2023 ”

  1. Sanctuary 1

    Nobody tell Ron DeSantis.

    • Sabine 1.1

      Why, does anyone of us live in Florida USA and has voting rights there?

      • Sanctuary 1.1.1

        Crickey, so salty. Did the kid whose ball you confiscated off your front lawn yesterday come back with his big dad and give you a hiding or something?

        • Sabine 1.1.1.1

          nah, just bored by the stuff from Florida, when really its just click bait.

          Yes, you can no longer confuse kids in schools until they reach a certain age. And that of course would cut into the earnings of some people that cut of the breats of 13 year olds and castrate boys age 9 via chemicals, cause they played with the wrong toys age 18month. Someone outght to burn the witch.

          And are you advocating violence against people you don't agree with or is that just something you do because it makes you feel all good?

          • Incognito 1.1.1.1.1

            It was very poor taste and is now on my radar. However, there was no advocating as such.

        • Incognito 1.1.1.2

          Please don't use violence, not even 'in jest'. The Mods tend to take a hard line on this.

  2. tsmithfield 2

    Crazy stuff. Drones just hit the Kremlin.

    The question is who did it:

    If the Ukrainians did it, then it exposed how useless Russian air defence is, and is a symbolic strike preceding their counter-offensive

    Some talk it was a false-flag operation by the Russians to motivate the population about the war.

    Some talk it was Prigozhin (Wagner boss) trying to provoke Putin to take stronger action.

    There is talk and rumours flying around about nuclear retaliation at the moment. I certainly hope that is not true, and I don't think Nato survellience has suggested anything untoward in that respect.

    But, interesting times.

    • Sanctuary 2.1

      Probably either 2nd Amendment actors from Russia or the Ukraine or a false flag.

      If it was a false flag, top marks to the Ruskies for actually hitting a flag.

      If it is the work of “concerned of Kyiv” (or Kursk) then I salute their ambition.

      • tsmithfield 2.1.1

        Suspiciously there were two people on the Kremlin roof at that moment. Perhaps with fire extinguishers in case it got out of hand.

        And, someone conveniently was there to film it.

        So, a bit fishy. And you are right. A good effort to hit a flag with a false flag operation LOL.

        • Francesca 2.1.1.1

          False flag operation ?

          Crisis actors next? Sounds like a good old conspiracy theory
          I guess if the attacks had been successful you would be celebrating, rather than casting doubt, but because they were a failure, they must have been the silly old Russians .
          Amusing to speculate though

          • tsmithfield 2.1.1.1.1

            It looks like the drones were quite small. So, highly doubtful they would have had the range to make it all the way from Ukraine.

            And, those two guys on the roof? What the heck were they doing there right at that time other than to put the fire out if it got too intense.

            And, who is saying it was a failure? Which ever side did it likely thinks it achieved its purpose.

          • Sanctuary 2.1.1.1.2

            "…I guess if the attacks had been successful you would be celebrating…"

            If it is Ukrainian drone attack then from being in Kyiv in three days to cancelling the big parade because they can't protect Red Square from enemy air attack is quite the journey, nes pas?

            Moscow is supposed to be surrounded by an extensive air defense system. If it isn't a false flag it is right up their with Matthias Rust on the embarassment scale.

          • aj 2.1.1.1.3

            Ukrainian banker offers cash for drone terror in Russia

            https://twitter.com/TheGrayzoneNews/status/1653476546244427826?cxt=HHwW5IC29ZCKqvItAAAA

            That would be a challenge that no Russian teenager into drones could resist. Even looked like a Molotov cocktail going off.

            • joe90 2.1.1.1.3.1

              That would be a challenge that no Russian teenager into drones could resist.

              Most Russian teens could resist killing Ukrainian civilians doing their supermarket shop, though.
              //

            • Sanctuary 2.1.1.1.3.2

              That is the 2nd amendment actors I was referring to!

        • joe90 2.1.1.2

          Certainly vindicates Poots' decision to cancel victory day parades because of safety concerns.

          https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/02/russian-regions-scrap-victory-day-parades-amid-fear-of-ukraine-strikes

          • tsmithfield 2.1.1.2.1

            Yeah. It is hard to know who actually did this. Normally the first thing to do is look at who benefits. In this case, there are a number of actors who could have benefited in various ways.

            • tsmithfield 2.1.1.2.2.1

              I saw that as well.

              But it isn't really clear to me. Sure, Russia has motivation for a false flag op.

              But, what they are also pointing out to the Russian people is how ineffective their own air defence is, if a simple drone can get through. If it was to be a false flag, I would have thought aiming a drone at a school or hospital would tug more on the heart strings of the Russians.

              If it was a flalse flag job, I am more inclined to go with the Prigozhin theory than Putin. He has been jockeying for position for awhile now, and has been trying to show how useless the Russian military are. So, this would suit his modus operandi.

              • Sanctuary

                The Russian winter offensive has largely run out of steam, having a parade with nothing to show for the offensive is a bad look.

                The Russian and Mercenary forces in the Ukraine – around 250,000 men in combat elements – has suffered major losses in their best units. Ukrainian losses have also been grievous, but I would suggest their army is in a better shape than the Russians.

                The Russians are running out of anything bigger than crew-served weapons (which means they can't mobilise much more manpower, except as cannon fodder light infatry) and generally speaking the Russian army is de-modernising. The bringing out of storage of ancient T-54/55 series tanks (a better choice than the T-62 because the T-62 has an unique 115mm gun they haven't made ammo for in decades whereas the 100mm T-55 gun is ubiquitous) and BTR-50 APCs is mind boggling, especially in the context of the Ukraine getting relatively modern Western MICVs and MBTs.

                The Russian force density is only around 4-500 men per km of the battlefront, which is why they are relying on extensive field fortifications – they need to create a reserve. I would guess they plan to use relatively small numbers of lightly equipped conscripts in fixed fortifications as speed bumps to attrite and slow Ukrainian offensive break in/break out operations for long enough to move their mobile forces and airforces to counterattack.

                My guess is the Ukrainians will probably seek a repeat of their last offensive, conducting a two phased operation aimed at an intial attack to draw in the Russian reserves and then a second thrust once the Russian reserves are commited. Perhaps an attack in the Svatove/Sievierdonetsk area to fix Russian reserves to defend the vital supply lines there or an attack across the Dniepr in the Kherson/Nova Karkova area a la Operation Badr in 1973 that would force the powerful Russian Air Force into an attritional battle against Ukrainian missile batteries. This latter option is very risky but would have the advantage of drawing Russian reserves to the west of Mariupol as they would have to destroy the bridgeheads in case the Ukrainians then conduct mobile operations east to Melitopol, north east to Vasylivka and south east to the Crima. Such attacks would also out flank the fixed, largely east-west orientated Russian field defenses.

                In any event, there will almost certainly be an attack between Volnovakha and Polohy towards Mariupol and with the aim of cutting off all communications and supplies to the Crimea and Russian forces west of that place & getting to the Black Sea – where they can destroy the Kerch bridge and then settle down to starve out the Crimea and force it’s surrender.

                Anyway, a two pronged attack where if either was successful it could be quickly reinforced and either would mean the Russians would suffer a big defeat must be the desire.

                • tsmithfield

                  I know the Russians have kilometres of trenches etc. But, the problem is their troop density per kilometre. Basically, they can't defend everywhere.

                  So, I think the Ukrainian strategy will be to try and force the Russians to shift their troops to a location where they think the Ukrainians are attacking, then attack somewhere else as well. So, we may see a number of feints.

                  And, the problem with static defence is that it is that: static. Compared to the Ukrainians who can move around. Especially when Ukraine has access to highly detailed satellite pics, and highly precise weapons.

                  I wouldn't want to be a Russian soldier in a trench tbh.

            • Joe90 2.1.1.2.2.2

              More opining.

              Four Possibilities for the Kremlin Attack

              Moscow claims Ukraine struck the Kremlin. The truth is likely worse.

              By Tom Nichols

              https://archive.li/h0YiG (the atlantic)

        • McFlock 2.1.1.3

          looked like security cam/webcam footage to me. Static, not handheld, of a local point of interest.

          As for the two on the roof, maybe they were literal flag operatives. Or cleaners. Or dudes laying poison for the birds that necessitate cleaners. Or guards on a routine external. Amazing what happens on rooftops at night, even without students in the area.

          Dunno about the range and model of drone. But hitting the flagpole could just be an artifact of GPS guidance with a waypoint over the building.

          Putes has a parade in that very location next week. lol. Guess the body double will be working that gig.

          • tsmithfield 2.1.1.3.1

            I am certainly not ruling out the Ukrainians. But the whole thing is a bit weird.

            Maybe it was people inside Moscow, Ukrainian or otherwise, with some sort of small drone. That would likely explain how they managed to avoid air defence.

            • McFlock 2.1.1.3.1.1

              No more weird than a cessna landing in Red Square.

              They're fighting a war and don't have unlimited resources. The Ukrainians will be starting an offensive soon (it's getting to Chekov's Offensive territory because of the weather – use it or get it off the table), so lots of anti-drone-capable defenses will be in the occupied areas. Borders still have to be covered. As do strategic facilities in the arse end of Siberia. Are we assuming those areas haven't been pared back to suboptimal levels already? Low altitude drones are a beast different to what S400s are designed to hit.

              It's also possible the drones were low-level longe range reconnaissance and not intended to go boom at all, unless they were damaged.

              But if intentional, the juice for Ukrainians in this isn't hitting putin. It's in giving the Russians a week to drag a whole bunch more short-range AA back to Moscow for the nice parade where he announces the capture of Bakhmut. From the ukrainian perspective it's Sun Tzu shit – force the enemy to be where you are not.

              The parade itself would likely have too much potential civilian casualties to serve Ukrainian strategic goals. That would interrupt the eager flow of guns & ammo from Europe and the USA and Turkey. But how many generals would take that bet? A failure there would be more visible than the inevitable 9 May present for the occupied territories.

              I suspect it's more likely that Russia releasing info and posing it as "attempt on putins life" as a way to try to help the next drawdown for cannon fodder, making lemonade out of lemons. If they wanted to justify tactical nukes putin would blow up apartment buildings in the suburbs of moscow. Again (allegedly).

              Although I wonder how many oligarchs would happily send their own drones to kill him.

              • tsmithfield

                But if intentional, the juice for Ukrainians in this isn't hitting putin. It's in giving the Russians a week to drag a whole bunch more short-range AA back to Moscow.

                I thought they had cancelled the parade due to security concerns. But, from what I saw, they had a lot of air defence that was to be in the parade.

                But, I imagine the Russians will be moving more of their gear back to Moscow.

                I think one of the issues with those small, slow moving drones is that air defence radar struggles to distinguish them from birds sometimes.

                I understand they have been launching drones at some of the Russian airfields nearby with the aim of forcing the Russians to move their planes further away so the Ukrainians have more warning about air-borne missile launches.

                • McFlock

                  Not cancelled from two days ago, apparently.

                  These drones are low and small and slow. They do apparently sometimes get filtered out by constraints designed to detect jets from 200km or mortar rounds from 1km, but finding something low from the ground has a range limited by topography and curvature, and an airborne platform needs to be able to separate it from the terrain and cars.

                  The attacks in depth aren't drone hordes yet (idea being that if you send enough only one needs to get through), so some folks I've been reading are arguing they're mostly still probing. But there's a pattern of attacks against fuel supplies, which is interesting. Are they looking to have putes commit to a feint and not have the fuel to get back, or simply fix the russians in place so that the ukrainians always have the weight at point of contact? Not a good day to be a Russian general. Good.

          • Incognito 2.1.1.3.2

            Welcome back, stranger.

            • McFlock 2.1.1.3.2.1

              Been looking every few days/week and leaving whenever the usual stupidities turn up. Sometimes very short visits. Most of the usual tory/tankie/bigot conversations are still around. Although less medical woo-woo, so there's that I guess.

              Checked up today mostly because I'm short on NZ pols news and looking to refresh it after the tpm/labour thing.

              The "false flag" bs popped out and I bit. It probably won't become a habit anytime soon.

    • Sabine 2.2

      Wollt ihr den totalen krieg. 🙂

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sportpalast_speech

    • Mike the Lefty 2.3

      Putin's illogical little rant is "how dare those Ukrainians attack targets in Russia. Its not like a war , we were just defending Russian sovereignty, and now those miserable Ukrainians want to make it into a real war by attacking us! "

      • Sanctuary 2.3.1

        Deeply strange stuff from the Russians – Dmitry Medvedev was having a little tanty this morning saying

        "…there are no options left aside the physical elimination of Zelensky and his cabal..,”

        As if they haven't been trying to kill him for the last 14 months…

    • bwaghorn 2.4

      Looked like a low budget b grade movie, which I expect is what it was

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 2.5

      Obviously I (like almost everyone) have no idea of who did this, or exactly what happened.

      The Ukrainians have generally been very strategic and mostly focus on removing the Russians from Ukraine. I doubt they think such an attack would be particularly useful, so makes me doubt whether it was them. But who knows.

  3. Visubversa 3

    On "World Press Freedom Day" there are several local media outlets that could do with a copy of this.

    https://sex-matters.org/posts/updates/new-media-handbook/?fbclid=IwAR0xVvXrfIehgb5DfpepVbA9UnF7Yd766QkZsbuH5hKHysLxYk49WO2Yyrw

    "This media handbook from Sex Matters aims to help editors and reporters find their way back to professional excellence. It explains when and why it is both reasonable and right to talk about people’s sex, and the harms that result if they fail to do so. It is based on UK law, but its guiding principles – clarity, accuracy, balance and editorial independence – are universal, meaning that it will be useful for journalists elsewhere too."

  4. tWiggle 4

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/04/short-term-rental-properties-in-nsw-surge-by-13000-since-december-2021

    Oz is facing a housing crisis – AirB&b short term rentals are clearly a major factor.

    This contributor to housing market shortage is missed time and time again in NZ, not even measured. About time to regulate the size of this corner of the market, and to make it pay its way. Then homeless people can shift out of motels into homes, and travellers back into motels.

  5. bwaghorn 5

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131951550/green-mp-elizabeth-kerekere-to-break-silence-amid-bullying-probe

    Will she go full Sharma, ?

    Or will she toddler off to te party Maori ?

    Or will they kiss and make up??

  6. ianmac 6

    In the TV program Housing this week fronted by Clarke Gayford, he made a casual remark as the truck he was in passed through the town of Seddon. I thought it was rather funny.

    "This town was named after the second best Prime Minister of New Zealand."

    • dvT 6.1

      yesyes​​​​​​​yes​​​​​​​​​​​​​​yes​​​​​​​​​​​​​​yes​​​​​​​​​​​​​​yes​​​​​​​​​​​​​​yes​​​​​​​​​​​​​​yes​​​​​​​​​​​​​​yes​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

  7. newsense 7

    Turns out Chris Bishop, a former cancer stick apologist, is not above fronting that sort of logic in the housing debate. No source for his claims a frontline housing charity wants this. And many, many frontline groups who do not…

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/04-05-2023/we-cant-find-the-charity-that-told-chris-bishop-to-bring-back-no-cause-evictions

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