Well, silly you then. Supply & demand dictate the outcome – so when you get govts of the left & right flooding Aotearoa with immigrants for many years, you get more people than available houses. Stopping the Chinese influx was just the first step, and it happened years later than it ought to have. Politicians ignored the problem for as long as they could, until voters started to notice it.
Given how thick voters are, that was always going to take years. So now the politicians want to cover all Ak's prime food-producing land with houses. We call this democracy in action. We could call it people-pollution.
The usual line – "Look! The coalition government's already been in power a couple of years and still hasn't fixed the problem National spent nine years aggravating! Who will save us from these incompetents? How about returning National to power? That would be the best solution, right?"
You mean, little to nothing apart from ending various aggravating factors National had allowed to continue, extending the bright-line test, changing rental laws, re-building the Housing ministry and emarking on a massive house-building programme that's currently seeing the most state houses being built since the 1970s? Sour grapes much?
My grapes are ripe yet and I'm not eating them for at least another month….
All that you said on one side of the equation, balanced with: refusing to implement a CGT, not altering the landlord subsidy and keeping the migration tap open.
I notice you avoided bringing Kiwibuild into the discussion…
So, they haven't been able to do every single thing you wanted, which in your mind equates to them having done "little to nothing." Everyone's entitled to their opinion.
I didn't mention Kiwibuild because it's just one part of the house-building programme I mentioned. It's not a very successful part, which I suppose is why you raised it, but the government's programme still has thousands of houses being built every year, something we haven't seen for a long time. How is that "doing little to nothing?"
They have done quite a few things that I am stoked about: moving minimum wage towards living wage, kept quiet during JLR vs Bennett/Bridges, led in an appropriately compassionate way following ChCh murders/ Whakaari, re-entry @ Pike River.
My grizzle is what I mentioned (CGT, accom. supplement, migration) are what I expect from the other mob. Which, by the way, Labour have had three terms to plan how they could avoid the Kiwibuild 'mis-steps'.
No sour grapes from me. I own my own home. my lemon trees aren't liking the haze and lack of summer, but that's another issue.
My issue is that we are continuously expected to just believe labours election promise that they will fix the housing crises, when all the metrics and evidence point to a complete lack of control of the situation by this government.
How long do we keep having blind faith in this government because apparently the other lot are so bad?
My issue is that we are continuously expected to just believe labours election promise that they will fix the housing crises…
Did they promise to have this crisis that was 15 years in the making fixed within two years? That would have been very foolish of them, and it would have been very foolish of you to believe it if they had promised it.
How long do we keep having blind faith in this government because apparently the other lot are so bad?
Again, having blind faith would be foolish. The question is, which of the alternatives in front of this election has policies more likely to improve the housing situation, and which has policies more likely to degrade it further? If you'd prefer the situation to improve, then yes you'd better support this government because the other lot will degrade it further.
Do I A) want the housing crises to worsen slowly so that there is no end in sight or B) do I want to ride unchecked until it’s inevitable crash and hope the government of the day is brave enough to not give bailouts to the enabling parties?
given a desire for either scenario, which major bloc do I vote for Milt? The answers aren’t there as no government of either colour is willing to admit they prefer the outcome of A as it kicks the can so far down the road it won’t be their problem.
Classic Trump / Hillary problem at the moment with the majors. Who do I not want to vote for the least
Jesus, this again. Bitching about a party with 8 MPs failing to dominate the legislative agenda just makes you look stupid. If you want to see more of their policies implemented, encourage more people to vote for them.
its getting boring listening to people defend a government 2/3 of the way through its term that is yet to achieve anything meaningful on housing, despite all the rhetoric. Are we supposed to just believe that it will all change for the better if we blindly vote for another term despite current performance?
your exasperation is misplaced. Tell the pollies, the voters are sick of being told they’re stupid for not blindly agreeing
And where is labour on this? They had interventionist policies on housing too and between them and the greens they did have enough votes to dominate the legislative agenda.
And when you look at the make up of this government and find that nz fist have to be placated on some issues, things like the CGT don't get done, which is exactly why the flavour numbers of mps in a coalition matter. It’s not having a simple majority that really counts under mmp.
As The Al1en pointed out already, that's exactly how politics works. If not enough people vote for parties with the kind of policies you'd like to see, those policies don't get enacted.
its getting boring listening to people defend a government 2/3 of the way through its term that is yet to achieve anything meaningful on housing, despite all the rhetoric.
The achievements are substantial, especially when you take into account the scale of the problem and the fact the government is a coalition of three parties with sometimes-incompatible agendas. As mentioned already, if you want to see more progress, persuade more people to vote for the party with the policies you want to see enacted and discourage them from voting for parties that will only exacerbate the problem.
…between [Labour] and the greens they did have enough votes to dominate the legislative agenda.
Between them they have 54 seats in a 120-seat Parliament. If you have some hitherto-unknown method of dominating the legislative agenda with a minority of the MPs, please do share it with them.
""Look! The coalition government's already been in power a couple of years and still hasn't fixed the problem National spent nine years aggravating! Who will save us from these incompetents? How about returning National to power? That would be the best solution, right?""
Classic Jamesisms, nicely captured by Psycho Milt.
Break the Wesfarmers / fletchers building materials supply duopoly, create a nationally funded apprentice college network similar to the old polytechnics and insist that master tradesmen engage at a guild level for apprentices for master accreditation, remove council fees beyond processing costs on consents and therefore the gst on council fees.
Now what do you suggest? Let me guess….kiwibuild reset?
No, strangely enough, I agree with your propositions in that area. Quite good ideas to my mind.
We may be on the same side. The thing is that you appeared to be suggesting that we dump current Govt and vote National again.
Voting National would never achieve what you propose, would it?
No. I’m just not defending this governments behaviour on the premise that National were worse. It’s binary and allows this government to abdicate any responsibility for contributing to the mess
Our over priced housing has multiple causes … all that's happened is one form of aggravation; hot Chinese money looking for a safe haven has been replaced by another aggravation … persistently low interest rates.
And as Dennis says … high migration. One factor everyone likes to pretend won't happen, what happens if the Australian economy/climate tanks and around 500,000 passport holding kiwis with limited access to welfare over the ditch decide to come home? Lowish likelihood, but potentially a big impact.
Yes the low interest rates are the latest tool' to defy market realities.
No Govt can withstand a large drop in property prices.
Hopefully the Coalition or Labour alone, can prevail in the next election and really bring about some programmes to make the Kiwi dream affordable again.
This steady as she goes term ,albeit with good intentions needs to transform into inspired action.
Add into the 500,000 plus New Zealand passport holders several million Australian passport holders who can reside, and buy property, in New Zealand and we could have an accomodation crisis of unimaginable proportions.
I'm not convinced it's likely … but it's a risk we rarely discuss. Given that almost 25% of people ever born in NZ are now living overseas, we are remarkably exposed on this.
The silver lining is that most ex-pats would return with some decent funds and much of it would go into building new housing.
Low interest rates are not driving house prices to any extent, just as high interest rates didn't proclude house price rises prior to the GFC. The reserve bank could raise interest rates to the extent of collapsing the housing market but would at the same time cause mass defaults and probably a recession. This is not a valid policy for an institution charged with promoting financial stability.
But directly there is no good reason to believe people are significantly trading off interest rates and prices when going into the housing market. The theoretical economic concept of a natural interest rate (for the central bank to target) is also known to be pretty dubious.
The Reserve Bank is not there to "Fix" the current housing crisis. We were told during the election campaign that there this WAS an issue and that should we vote in Labour then this would be rectified. They had 9 years in Govt and 9 years in opposition to isolate the causes and implement fixes to these.
To date there is no evidence that any changes made have halted this issue and that there are signs of the housing crisis abating. To continue with the immigration policy of increasing Kiwis by 55k p.a. does nothing but place increased pressure.
and headlines like this "Rental squeeze: Easier to find a job in Wellington than a flat, says professional on $100,000 salary" does not give confidence that this crisis has been addressed, but has deteriorated.
Are any current or future govts just hoping that the Market Will correct of that there is a recession 🤢??
When historical house price to income ratios are compared with those today,there is an imbalance of concern.
Scrutiny of the sub prime fiasco in the U.S will reveal the frenzy of loan originators to peddle mortgages to anyone with a pulse.
(There was a corresponding increase in supply in the U.S too and non recourse.)
Whilst that has not happened to the same extent here,one feature is very evident and that is ,existing home owners have been increasing borrowing leverage ,ie the wealth effect.
The extension of the brightline test to 5 years appears to have stymied flipping and the foreign buyer rules are having effect. (screaming in Queenstown).
Orr is correct in increasing the banks cap ratios.
People should expect a correlation between house prices and wages and C.P.I
It is no wonder property is excluded from inflation assessments,it would blow them to kingdom come.
$650,000 homes are not affordable homes.
When the rubber hits the road(*recession)people will look to the Govt for a bail out,that's for sure.
We are clearly on different dimensions regarding the meaning of facts and logic. I am sticking to my conclusion that the rate of house price inflation can be measured as the percentage rate of those prices increasing.
So whats the primary cause of interest rate fluctuations for mortgages?
As far as facts and logic go….'there is no good reason to believe people are significantly trading off interest rates and prices when going into the housing market. '
In your world cost and affordability are not aligned.
The most important factor in setting market interest rates appears to be the OCR. Eg its the interest rate the reserve bank wants. But obviously the reserve bank policy doesn't fluctuate much (and I don't see why that is a relevant thing here).
In the real world cost and affordability are not well aligned. Cost is related to the house price but affordability is a question of income which in a lot of cases doesn't even come from the asset or in other cases is a positive function of asset price appreciation. People buying into the housing market (esp for profit) seem mostly interested in which areas are going to appreciate next, not what the going interest rates are.
'For example, the Reserve Bank would tend to increase the OCR in response to an increase in inflation pressure. The rise in the OCR would tend to flow through to higher bank interest rates, which would offset the pressure by shifting preferences from consumption to saving, because the cost of borrowing has increased, and the return from savings is also higher. This translates into a lower demand for consumption and investment goods, easing the inflation pressure in the economy. When the OCR is raised, it also results in an appreciation of the New Zealand dollar because the demand for New Zealand interest-earning investments increases. As the demand for the New Zealand dollar increases, the value of the dollar appreciates. The higher dollar dampens exports and increases the demand for the relatively cheaper imports, also lowering demand and thus the inflation pressures.'
As far as property inflation goes ,it has been rampant for years and the opposite to the above is being implemented.
Sure, but you know that this conventional wisdom is wrong. This is because there is no such market for savings vs borrowing to trade off in. I have observed in your comments that you know that market doesn't exist because banks originate the funds during the lending process (eg nobody loses access to there savings when a new loan is created so the described trade off doesnt occur).
The inflation measure is the CPI and house prices are only nominally measured within the CPI (building cost increases excluding land) …existing housing asset (bubbles) dont form part of the CPI, some may say conveniently
Nic. You always make challenging replies. You are right that interest rates by themselves are not a direct predictor of house prices … but the ability to service a loan is. We are in quite a different position prior to the GFC, mortgages were typically small enough that interest rates in the 7-9% range could be tolerated.
But now with many households with over $500k of debt, or a lot more, they're a much more sensitive to even quite small interest rate rises.
This is an effect Steven Keen wrote a fair bit on, in the big picture Debt to GDP ratio was a critical parameter most economists didn't place enough importance on at the time. He's been proven right and we see a lot more attention on it now.
I saw what appears a quite enlightening comment by Warren Mosler recently. He describes the inflation process as a price setting mechanism occuring when new (higher) prices are accepted by the institution making payment.
That suggests that commercial banks have been driving house prices with the change to lower equity loans, which the reserve bank has had some influence on. The US had a significant issue with property valuers over valueing properties (at the behest of banks) and this also supports house price inflation.
I don't actually see it as a housing market issue however. Overall the government has not been as accomodating of public sector wages (same mechanism as Mosler describes, govt chooses what to pay public sector) and the shift to monetary policy has squeezed private sector wages for many as well. Its no wonder that housing costs are well above incomes after 20+ years of this pressure. The only surprising thing is that so many people expect a natural and automatic balance to exist between housing and other prices (including wages).
I had already identified during the last election that Labours Kiwi build policy could not 'fix' house prices and was at most hopeful that public sector housing stock would be built. Looking at the housing market as supply and demand driven will never suggest a workable solution to house prices. Asset markets are not remotely amenable to that because asset inflation generates passive income at the same time it adds cost to new market entrants.
I think I found and watched this discussion (June 2018).
At a later stage Mosler makes the same claim that a permanent zero interest rate central bank policy is not inflationary.
I thought Keen was a bit off in his disagreements there. But its probably relevant to understand that a trade surplus makes domestic policy easier to implement.
but that asset price MUST remain serviceable…. otherwise mass default a la GFC subprime mortgages. And the banks (including central) set the rates and create the lending with one eye on that at all times to their maximum perceived benefit…..and we all hope their judgement is not found wanting (again)
Also, I don't see the argument that interest rates of 7-9% were tolerable as saying anything meaningful. The model is not, the Reserve Bank sets interest rates as high as may be tolerated. The model is something like, the Reserve Bank sets an interest rate to bring inflation rate towards the target.
The (small) problems being that monetary policy has neglegible impact on inflation anyway and some key prices (wages and housing) are adjusting relatively to each other in problematic ways.
Socialism as yet undead: "Spain's caretaker socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has narrowly won a confidence vote in parliament, enabling him to govern in coalition with far-left Podemos." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51019358
"The dramatic open vote, by a simple majority of MPs, went 167 to 165 in his favour. Abstentions by Catalan and Basque MPs played a critical role. He will now form a minority government. It will be Spain's first coalition government since democracy was restored in 1978, after the Franco dictatorship."
Can socialists do consensus politics? This will be the test. "The new coalition plans to raise income taxes for those who earn more than €130,000 (£111,000; $145,000) annually. They also plan to reverse some labour market reforms passed by the previous conservative government, which made it easier and less expensive to fire workers."
"PSOE spokeswoman Adriana Lastra accused right-wing MPs of "bullying"." Combining complaint with virtue-signalling in a single word. "She said MP Tomás Guitarte of the small Teruel Existe party had suffered so much pressure that he concealed his whereabouts out of fear. She said he had received more than 8,000 emails urging him to vote "no" instead of "yes"." If 8000 emails arrived in your inbox one day would you run & hide?? Nah, get tough, don't wilt under pressure.
"The ERC decision came after Mr Sánchez agreed to open a formal dialogue on the future of Catalonia, if confirmed as prime minister, and to then submit the dialogue's conclusions to Catalan voters. The Catalan separatists' drive for independence overshadows Spanish politics, with the conservative and far-right opposition parties bitterly opposed to it. Mr Sánchez said he wanted to free Spanish politics of its "toxic atmosphere". He said dialogue was necessary to "overcome the territorial disputes, always in line with the constitution". The PSOE opposes granting Catalans a legal independence referendum, while recognising that both Catalonia and the Basque Country are nations within Spain, and not just regions. The Catalans and Basques already have a large degree of autonomy."
Another Catalan vote seems sensible. If he can design a compromise between enhanced autonomy & independence, and Catalans vote to support it, he will have proven his expertise – and socialism will get some regeneration via consensus politics.
Simon would have received a silky treatment to smoothen the path. He wouldn’t have to say much because, unlike Simon, they are masters in reading body language and would have read him like an open book. They saw him coming all the way from New Zealand.
The relevant principle being non-alignment. Being allied tends to look like non-conformity to the principle, huh? I don't see our help with peace-keeping overseas as making us allies with whatever else country is likewise helping. However, as regards being in the arena when the yanks launch attack drones, perception that we are allied with them could indeed be a problem.
I hope the Greens can get the coalition to see that. Golriz seems to have issued an appropriate message, muted and politic, well done. Now Iraq has called for us to head for the exit, let's do that asap.
But the time is rapidly coming when political leaders and former political leaders need to start sheeting home scathing criticisms directly to the persons responsible ie. Donald Trump and his inner sanctum heavies.
At the moment they act like they are treading oven broken egg shells. All that does is provide the Chump with further evidence he can get away with anything he likes.
This has shades of Lianne Dalziel circa 2002 all over it.
Iirc, Dalziel as Minister of Immigration about that time, sent back to Sri Lanka a young child whose parents were resident, but not citizens, and the child was neither? I could be wrong (probably am) but Lees-Galloway's decision here seems similar.
Labour ministers never seem to have a good record in the immigration portfolio.
Prior to new year's eve, BBC reported Putin "thanked US counterpart Donald Trump for intelligence that helped foil "acts of terrorism" on Russian soil, according to a Kremlin statement. Mr Putin and Mr Trump spoke on the phone on Sunday, it said. The Kremlin said the information came via intelligence services, but it provided no further details."
"Russian media is reporting the discovery of a plot to attack St Petersburg over the new year period. Tass news agency says two Russian nationals have been arrested and plans to attack a mass gathering were seized, according to a spokesperson from the FSB, the Russian intelligence agency." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50941754
It would have been sensible for Trump to have sussed out how Putin felt about his option of taking out the Iranian general, during their discussion. However Trump is rarely sensible, and the option may have come up fast due to being sourced in observation – secret travel arrangements usually don't forewarn opponents.
"In December 2017, Mr Putin thanked Mr Trump for another warning from US intelligence agencies, which again apparently prevented a terrorist plot in St Petersburg, according to a White House account. During that call, the Kremlin said Mr Putin had promised to reciprocate with information about terrorist threats to the United States."
Never discount the value of a verbal contract between top leaders in geopolitics, however conditional they may be. I suspect the two have a reasonable understanding on a personal level. It's a question of how destabilising Putin feels the assassination actually is.
Looks like Putin is being sensible in getting an impartial perspective from the German leader, to avoid the knee-jerk response and optimise his options.
Very interesting. In my mind I've always painted Trump and Putin as 'about as bad as each other, but in very different ways'. What they do have in common is that both are nationalists, and neither man is a sociopath who wants nothing more than to visit devastation on the world.
Putin is first and foremost a Russian nationalist who has led his country to a remarkable recovery from the disaster of the 90's. He absolutely doesn't want a US-Iran confrontation on his southern border region.
Trump is similarly a US nationalist, but who has inherited an intolerable shambles from prior Administrations. He want’s out too, but is so entangled in the ME that he needs to slash and burn some crap first.
That they are talking is more reason to hope than not.
What are your thoughts on the Iran Nuclear agreement and the way Darth Drumpf trashed it, even though his own administration was certifying that Iran was fully complying with it?
N will have been briefed beforehand. Consulted, even, would be my guess. There's a good reason the top jew in the Trump team was put closest to the oval office. "Kushner's office is physically the closest to the Oval Office."
Trump spins on a dime. Here's his framing of the u-turn: "Mr Trump said that "according to various laws" the US should not target these cultural sites. "You know what, if that's what the law is, I like to obey the law," he said." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51027619
Notice the subtle caveat. Guiliani or someone gives him views on which laws it might be a good idea to obey, or when it may be timely to create that impression in the public mind.
Voters rejected Corbyn's socialism, so the Labour mandarins feel they must swing back to market forces and are waving an olive branch at the Blairites?
They could go further. Tell the people that selling the right to vote to the highest bidder is a damn good idea. Have an auction. Middle class wannabes would love it. Get Simon Cowell to stage the thing for primetime tv – suddenly Labour would seem trendy to a huge swathe of voters. 🙄
I paid $5 to vote for Andrew Little as Labour leader. All cobwebs as regards social democracy in that party but present pricks, tho' more sellable, are worse. I hear the party in Britain is now firmly Corbynist in membership, and up the echelons a bit. Which is what I desired from and desire from Corbyn and Sanders respectively.
Sometimes you have to wonder how much the loony Christian fundamentalism within the US government want to see the world burn. Dick Cheney, being the one who opened the door.
Video is 25 minutes long, and good view from a former staffer in the Bush Presidency.
"The Pentagon said Iran fired more than a dozen missiles. "It is clear that these missiles were launched from Iran and targeted at least two Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. military and coalition personnel at Al-Assad and Irbil," Jonathan Hoffman, assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, said in a statement." https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/us-iran-soleimani-tensions-intl-01-07-20/index.html
If Pompeo wasn't killed, Iran has failed to achieve parity. Mullahs failing to respond severely, after declaring they would, are likely to lose credibility in the opinions of their followers. Will the govt of Iraq declare war on Iran? An unprovoked attack on two of their bases merits the traditional response. Having told all foreigners to get out, these tough guys are dead keen to go it alone. Or maybe not…
What a puerile, childish and idiotic comment. The Iraqi government is powerless.
The two bases hit are effectively US territory, and they are unequivocally major US military installations being unequivocally attacked by the military of Iran.
The Greek chorus of Trumpian chumps who made light on this site of the assassination of Qassem Suleimani completely failed to grasp that by carrying out that killing the United States effectively declared war on Iran. No nation can sit back and allow another to assassinate it's top leaders with impunity. Iran is now taking the US at it's word and has struck back.
To make it clear – by any reasonable standard of international behaviour a state of war has existed between Iran and the United States since the 3rd of January 2020.
What the fuck did the US administration think Iran would do after that assassination?
Iran and the US have been in a state of conflict for a very long time … while it's true the Trump pushed events over an important threshold in the past week … none of this happened in a vacuum.
The theocratic thugs who run the Iranian regime are not nice innocent people, any more than any of the other cynical bastards tangled up in this.
Get a grip, lad. If they were US bases CNN would have described them as such. Or are you trying to subtly imply CNN journalists can't even get such elementary facts right??
How adequate the response from Iran has been remains to be seen from casualty figures. My point was re the court of public opinion in Iran. Loss of their top military commander, weighed in the balance against how many US soldiers?
Most people would view that as an ineffective response regardless. Think of it as a chess move: lose a Queen and retaliate by taking a few pawns. Doesn't rate.
Hey Sanctuary, in the interests of not increasing people's stress, can you please tone down the pejoratives? It's fine to point to perceived ignorance in comments with some analysis, but once you start aiming that at people and name calling, it becomes a problem for moderators.
I hear you, but at the same time if someone writes six plus posts of 600 odd words and then reveals he isn't even aware of what bases the US has in Iraq…
Well, being called an idiot I would have thought is as polite a reply as one should expect.
I bite my tongue on the internet all the time 😉 The choices we make about what we write after reacting are what determine whether a shit fight breaks out (and then whether the mods get involved).
I admit I was teasing him. But since he didn't tell the truth (refer to joint bases) tweaking his tail was fair enough, eh?
The point being that the rockets were an offensive action against both countries – Iraq and USA. I get why leftists are addicted to demonising the USA. Spent much of my life feeling that way too! But political commentary is more effective when based on fact rather than misrepresentation.
"I admit I was teasing him. But since he didn't tell the truth (refer to joint bases) tweaking his tail was fair enough, eh?"
No idea. I'm not reading much of the commentary on this, just enough to keep an eye on moderation and what might be developing. My main point here would be that tensions are high enough without us winding each other up 🙂 Where that line lies is on all of us.
The point being that the rockets were an offensive action against both countries – Iraq and USA.
Just as the US drone strike in the Iraqi airport was a offensive action against both Iraq and Iran. Looks to me like a proportionate response bearing in mind that the drone didn’t give radar warnings of have to go through have to go through anti-missile defenses.
Most people understand tit for tat. It's even in the Bible (`an eye for an eye'). But, as I pointed out in 12.1, re the effect on the credibility of the mullahs, those that count are in Iran.
The reason Sanctuary is doing his hysterical thing is that the truth hurts, so folks get emotional. Once the feelings subside, a cooler clearer appraisal becomes possible…
I think a “cooler clearer appraisal” might not apply to “most people” in Iran now. I think the Kiwis in Iraq might also have slightly heightened emotions.
Attention Jenny: noting a Moderation note is not sufficient. You need to respond to it in a way that shows that you understand and accept your moderation otherwise we’ll just go around in circles, which will lead to a lengthy ban.
Until I’ve seen a satisfactory response from you, you can stop posting comments because they will automatically end up in Trash and I have no means to restore them retrospectively (and this would take up more of my precious time).
Attention Ross: Please stop ‘testing’ because it won’t get you anywhere until you respond to the latest Moderation note that was left for you to respond to and satisfy the Moderator.
I only test when the reply button goes walkabout. Submitting a comment returns the reply option, and then I delete the test message (unless this sticky mouse button posts two entries, as it sometimes does, then only one test entry permits editing).
Nah, tried all options, including deleting browser data, ccleaning, purging, fasting and praying to the aliens. Only thing that fixes it (for me) is to make a test post.
Sorry for the troublesome desk rodent when it plays up, though. I should pick up a new key/mouse set at some stage, but at least the reason for my tests are out there now. lol
BREAKING: Iran launches missile attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq, according to Iranian state media
Al Asad air base in western Iraq, which houses U.S. troops, was hit by at least six rockets, according to a U.S. defense official. The White House said it was aware of reports of attacks on American facilities in Iraq and that President Trump is monitoring the situation and consulting with his national security team."
could be useful too. Consumption is the big driver of CC. The problem for NZ is that we choose not to protect vulnerable people. It won't hurt the middle classes to tighten their belts, but I wish they'd learn to share more.
on the contrary…if oil increases it will impact 'growth' and the expected reaction would be an interest rate cut to offset (if there were room to cut) the reduced economic activity
Depends what it does to inflation for the rbnz to cut.if there are pricing signals of an increase the rbnz wont cut.
Internal food costs are sensitive to transport (and a poor growing season at present due to colder weather) impacts the poor firstly on a day to day basis.
RBNZ has 'looked through' potential inflationary spikes for years now….any inflationary impact is likely to be temporary, remembering that fuel prices typically fluctuate through quite a wide range for various reasons….however as said the likely impact on interest rates (if any) would be expected to be down rather than up
Lucky Trump's actions were triggered by something irrelevant, something that doesn't mean anything to him – impeachment – an illegal action of course and without any evidence. (he reckons.)
Imagine how crazy he'd have gone if he was more personally challenged like his tax and financial records facing the usual open scrutiny and ensuing legal challenges. The claimant of the biggest dick being found to need a magnifying glass to be identified would have really set him off.
[Be careful typing your user name correctly, thanks]
The Iranians have made no attempt to hide their direct attack on US forces in Iraq. This is a state action, a response to what was basically a US declaration of war on them. The only hope now for peace is for Trump to panic and chicken out. I really hope Trump doesn't think this is a good war to help his re-election bid. A US president who loses a war won't be popular.
Shit Taji is where the ANZAC training team is atm, I hope Jandal’s tells Ronnie to get the troop asap and thank **** I’m no longer in the Forces and if they do ask me back to the colours it will be a f*** off sunshine etc as I’m not fighting for dumps silly little war / WW3 the Yanks started it so let them finish it without us.
All we need is Rocket man to throw something at Dump and Putin to do something in the Baltic, come to think I’ve read a novel by someone on this same scenario where a war kicks off in the Sandpit and rest fall like dominos.
Poission, I’m not too worried about the Russians in Syria as they have in Syria since late 50’s to early 60’s from memory. But it’s Baltic States that are the weak link to NATO and to EU, if I were a betting man that where I think Putin will strike nexts therefore splitting the western alliance/ economy.
Just watching Trump's son rabbiting on about great his father is. He hasn't said he agrees so much about sorting the Middle East out that he's putting his hand up to go there and help. Funny that.
Last time I was at Kiwiblog they had a regular 400 odd commenters. Versus Left blogs with a quarter of that. 'Kommon Zense' as per talkback radio? Appealing to know-nothingers with a near body to kick apparently beats reason, balance, Ballance, Savage and the whole of our corner of knowledge.
It's very hard to denie climate change global warming and Sealevels rising is our reality. All the intelligence people must keep up the Mana mahi and champion a clean and Green future for all of our mokopuna.
The 2010s were almost certainly the hottest decade on record — and it showed. The world burned, melted and flooded. Heat waves smashed temperature records around the globe. Glaciers lost ice at accelerating rates. Sea levels continued to swell.
At the same time, scientists have diligently worked to untangle the chaos of a rapidly warming planet.
In the past decade, scientists substantially improved their ability to draw connections between climate change and extreme weather events. They made breakthroughs in their understanding of ice sheets. They raised critical questions about the implications of Arctic warming. They honed their predictions about future climate change
The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, with temperatures rising at least twice as fast as the global average.
places like the United States, Europe and parts of Asia — for instance, a link between shrinking sea ice and cold winters in Siberia, or Arctic heat waves and extreme winter weather in the United States.
The trouble is models have a hard time capturing the causes driving these connections.
"No one argues that the Arctic meltdown will affect weather patterns, the question is exactly how," said Arctic climate expert Jennifer Francis, a researcher at Woods Hole Research Center. "So figuring out what's not right in the models will be a major focus. Without realistic models, it's hard to use them to separate Arctic influences from other possible factors."
Resolving the debate will require "a combination of data and modeling," according to NASA climatologist Claire Parkinson. Many scientists are already hard at work on this issue.
One ongoing project known as the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project is conducting a series of coordinated model experiments, all using the same standard methods, to investigate the Arctic climate and its connections to the rest of the globe. Experts say these kinds of projects may help explain why modeling studies conducted by different groups with different methods don't always get the same results.
At the same time, improving the way that physical processes are represented in Arctic climate models is also essential, according to Xiangdong Zhang, an Arctic and atmospheric scientist at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.
Outside that debate, there are still big questions about the Arctic climate to resolve. Scientists know the Arctic is heating up at breakneck speed — but they're still investigating all the reasons why.
Researchers believe a combination of feedback processes are probably at play. Sea ice and snow help reflect sunlight away from the Earth. As they melt away, they allow more heat to reach the surface, warming the local climate and causing even more melting to occur.
One key question for the coming decade, Zhang said in an email, is "what relative role each of the physical processes plays and how these processes work together" to drive the accelerating warming.
Unraveling these feedbacks will help scientists better predict how fast the Arctic will warm in the future, according to Francis — and how quickly they should expect its consequences to occur. They include vanishing sea ice, thawing permafrost and melting on the Greenland ice sheet
Sea-level rise is one of the most serious consequences of climate change, with the potential to displace millions of people in coastal areas around the world.
There are many old technologically advanced societies around the world that have vanished. They have built structures that our modern society can not duplicate even with all our modern technology.???? So what caused the collapse of these old civilisation the same thing that is causing our world problems man taking mother nature for granted. Climate change and global warming sea level rising. Our scientists have waved a red flag for 40 years. The wealthiest people choose to ignore their warnings and worse they use their money to distort the reality of common people who some they know will be easily manipulated into believing there lies giving them power and in reality putting there own mokopuna in the jeopardy Wake up.
The environment in 2050: flooded cities, forced migration – and the Amazon turning to savannah
Unless we focus on shared solutions, violent storms and devastating blazes could be the least of the world’s troubles. Civilisation itself will be at risk
Good morning. Here is the shipping forecast for midday, 21 June, 2050. Seas will be rough, with violent storms and visibility ranging from poor to very poor for the next 24 hours. The outlook for tomorrow is less fair.”
All being well, this could be a weather bulletin released by the Met Office and broadcast by the BBC in the middle of this century. Destructive gales may not sound like good news, but they will be among the least of the world’s problems in the coming era of peak climate turbulence. With social collapse a very real threat in the next 30 years, it will be an achievement in 2050 if there are still institutions to make weather predictions, radio transmitters to share them and seafarers willing to listen to the archaic content.
I write this imaginary forecast with an apology to Tim Radford, the former Guardian science editor, who used the same device in 2004 to open a remarkably prescient prediction on the likely impacts of global warming on the world in 2020.
Journalists generally hate to go on record about the future. We are trained to report on the very recent past, not gaze into crystal balls. On those occasions when we have to venture ahead of the present, most of us play it safe by avoiding dates that could prove us wrong, or quoting others.
Radford allowed himself no such safe distance or equivocation in 2004, which we should remember as a horribly happy year for climate deniers. George W Bush was in the White House, the Kyoto protocol had been recently zombified by the US Congress, the world was distracted by the Iraq war and fossil fuel companies and oil tycoons were pumping millions of dollars into misleading ads and dubious research that aimed to sow doubt about science.
Radford looked forward to a point when global warming was no longer so easy to ignore. Applying his expert knowledge of the best science available at the time, he predicted 2020 would be the year when the planet started to feel the heat as something real and urgent
Radford allowed himself no such safe distance or equivocation in 2004, which we should remember as a horribly happy year for climate deniers. George W Bush was in the White House, the Kyoto protocol had been recently zombified by the US Congress, the world was distracted by the Iraq war and fossil fuel companies and oil tycoons were pumping millions of dollars into misleading ads and dubious research that aimed to sow doubt about science.
Radford looked forward to a point when global warming was no longer so easy to ignore. Applying his expert knowledge of the best science available at the time, he predicted 2020 would be the year when the planet started to feel the heat as something real and urgent.
North land experienceing drought we have to listen to our scientists and plan for the weather conditions that they have forcast or else one will be in trouble.
A green turtle laying its eggs on a popular beach in Australia it good they have people with the knowledge to move the turtle eggs safely.
That's great Simaria getting The BBC to pay you the same putea as men Mana Wahine.
Trees grow much faster in Aotearoa than other countries maple syrup would be a great sestanable tree crop.
New technologies bowel cancer diegnosed with a mask it's the Ion age great new invention.
That's a excellent take of the hundreds of Sharks around the Great Barrier Islands. Sharks are a important part of Tangaroa environment and need to be protected and preserved.
Tyson was lucky to servive when his whare burnt down in the middle of winter.
The slide look cool A penguin but it slides the tamariki out to fast causeing injuries one would think they would test it before letting the public tamariki use it.???
I think thats a great move to ban exports of whitebait it will be awesome that in 30 years time everyone comes to Aotearoa to see our presteen wildlife and environment.
The Moana getting hot That's not good it doesn't take much temperatures to rise for life to get extremely difficult.
Bioluminesent sea creatures making Tangaroa look beautiful cool.
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 27 were:1. The Minister for Ford Rangers strikes againTransport Minister Simeon Brown was again the busiest of the Cabinet ministers this week, announcing an ...
You got a fast carAnd I want a ticket to anywhereMaybe we make a dealMaybe together we can get somewhereAny place is betterYesterday’s newsletter, Trust In Me, on the report of abuse in state care, and by religious organisations, between 1950 and 2019, coupled with the hypocrisy of Christopher Luxon ...
New Zealand is again having to reconcile conflicting pressures from its military and its trade interests. Should we join Pillar Two of AUKUS and risk compromising our markets in China? For a century after New Zealand was founded in 1840, its external security arrangements and external economics arrangements were aligned. ...
The ‘50 Shades of Green’ farmers’ protest in 2019 was heavy on climate change denial, but five years on, scepticism and criticism about the idea that pine forests can save us is growing across the board. File photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate ...
This morning the sky was bright.The birds, in their usual joyous bliss. Nature doesn’t seem to feel the heat of what might angst humans.Their calls are clear and beautiful.Just some random thoughts:MāoriPaul Goldsmith has announced his government will roll back the judiciary’s rulings on Māori Customary Marine Title, which recognises ...
In 2003, the Court of Appeal delivered its decision in Ngati Apa v Attorney-General, ruling that Māori customary title over the foreshore and seabed had not been universally extinguished, and that the Māori Land Court could determine claims and confirm title if the facts supported it. This kicked off the ...
Earlier this week at Parliament, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was applauded for saying that the response to the final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care had to be “bigger than politics.” True, but the fine words, apologies and “we hear you” messages will soon ring ...
TL;DR: In news breaking this morning:The Ministry of Education is cutting $2 billion from its school building programme so the National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government has enough money to deliver tax cuts; The Government has quietly lowered its child poverty reduction targets to make them easier to achieve;Te Whatu Ora-Health NZ’s ...
Kia ora. These are some stories that caught our eye this week – as always, feel free to share yours in the comments. Our header image this week (via Eke Panuku) shows the planned upgrade for the Karanga Plaza Tidal Swimming Steps. The week in Greater Auckland On ...
1. What's not to love about the way the Harris campaign is turning things around?a. Nothingb. Love all of itc. God what a reliefd. Not that it will be by any means easye. All of the above 2. Documents released by the Ministry of Health show Associate Health Minister Casey ...
Trust in me in all you doHave the faith I have in youLove will see us through, if only you trust in meWhy don't you, you trust me?In a week that saw the release of the 3,000 page Abuse in Care report Christopher Luxon was being asked about Boot Camps. ...
TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking about the Royal Commission Inquiry into Abuse in Carereport released this week, and with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on a UN push to not recognise carbon offset markets and ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 26, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Transport: Simeon Brown announced$802.9 million in funding for 18 new trains on the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines, which ...
The northern expressway extension from Warkworth to Whangarei is likely to require radical changes to legislation if it is going to be built within the foreseeable future. The Government’s powers to purchase land, the planning process and current restrictions on road tolling are all going to need to be changed ...
Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedFirst they came for the doctors But I was confused by the numbers and costs So I didn't speak up Then they came for our police and nurses And I didn't think we could afford those costs anyway So I ...
Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on UnsplashWe’re back again after our mid-winter break. We’re still with the ‘new’ day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when we have our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream ...
Notes: This is a free article. Abuse in Care themes are mentioned. Video is at the bottom.BackgroundYesterday’s report into Abuse in Care revealed that at least 1 in 3 of all who went through state and faith based care were abused - often horrifically. At least, because not all survivors ...
Luxon speaks in Parliament yesterday about the Abuse in Care report. Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:PM Christopher Luxon said yesterday in tabling the Abuse in Carereport in Parliament he wanted to ‘do the ...
About a decade ago I worked with a bloke called Steve. He was the grizzled veteran coder, a few years older than me, who knew where the bodies were buried - code wise. Despite his best efforts to be approachable and friendly he could be kind of gruff, through to ...
Some of the recent announcements from the government have reminded us of posts we’ve written in the past. Here’s one from early 2020. There were plenty of reactions to the government’s infrastructure announcement a few weeks ago which saw them fund a bunch of big roading projects. One of ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquirypublished its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone iconon the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive:Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloittereport for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’sOliver LewisScoop:Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announcedthe Board of Te Whatu Ora-Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
Te Rangi e tu nei (The sky above us) Te Papa e takoto nei (The land beneath us) Tatou katoa te hunga ora (To us all the living) Tena koutou katoa (Greetings) ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests. Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone. Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
Last summer when Matairangi burned, Ginny and Tom stood at the window of their lounge, watching kākā shoot skyward from the burning trees. From the distance, they looked to Ginny like pages torn from books and thrown into a bonfire. It was Tom, voice tight, who told her it was ...
Opinion: The Canadian short story writer Alice Munro – winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2013 – died in May at the age of 92. Her work was about “the damage people inflict on one another in the name of love”, Deborah Treisman wrote in the New Yorker. ...
This month marks two years since the most powerful telescope ever built sent its first pictures back to earth. From its lofty vantage point, beyond the moon in orbit around the sun, the James Webb Space Telescope was tuned to observe the first stars and galaxies being born soon after ...
Comment: After Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ preview several weeks ago, I had some optimism about the Government’s emissions reduction plan. Now I’ve read the discussion document, that hope has been dashed. How can the Government propose a plan that wants to take New Zealand taxpayers’ hard-earned money, and spend ...
Christopher Luxon: hurdles The little man from National jumps hurdles in his sleep. He’s quite good at it in his dreams and even though the reality doesn’t quite match up you have to give him credit for getting up every morning and crashing into the very first hurdle of the ...
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Madeleine Chapman rounds out Death Week on The Spinoff with a final recommendation. You can read all of our Death Week coverage here. Nothing forces you to reflect on your life and relationships quite like proximity to death. For those whose nearest and dearest have died, there are reasonably obvious ...
Whitney Greene takes us through her life in television, including the TV character she’d like to plan a funeral for and her cow lung catastrophe on The Traitors NZ. “If the phone rings, I have to answer it,” Whitney Greene from The Traitors NZ warns as we begin our My ...
Maddie Ballard reviews the debut essay collection of Pōneke writer Flora Feltham.In ‘The Raw Material’, the longest essay in Flora Feltham’s dazzling debut collection, the author heads out for a run after hours of weaving and sees the world turn to textile. “Pounding along the Parade, I saw the ...
Andy Christiansen, one half of the experimental rock-pop duo TRiPS, shares the tunes inspiring the band’s perfect weekend and new release. “Good speakers, good food, good music, no distractions”: that’s all you need to enjoy the psychedelic stylings of TRiPS, a new band formed by Fly My Pretties’ Barnaby Weir ...
Celebrating our quadrennial opportunity to become experts in a bunch of sports we never normally watch.The games of the XXXIII Olympiad are upon us. Paris will host this year’s showcase of sporting and athletic prowess, which means some late-night and early-morning viewing for us in Aotearoa.But what sports ...
The photograph is striking and beautiful, but also disturbing – a reminder that my love for John was often entangled in shame.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.In the spring of 1980, in Dunedin, shortly before his death, someone took a photograph ...
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Pacific Media Watch A Lebanese photojournalist who was severely wounded during an Israeli air strike in south Lebanon carried the Olympic torch in Paris this week in honour of her peers who have been wounded and killed in the field — especially in Gaza and Lebanon. Christina Assi of Agence ...
The first report in a five-part web series focused on the 15th Triennial Conference of Pacific Women taking place in the Marshall Islands this week.SPECIAL REPORT:By Netani Rika in Majuro Women continue to fight for justice 70 years after the first nuclear tests by the United States caused ...
Christopher Luxon has joined with Australia and Canada's leaders in voicing support for US President Joe Biden's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The 2022 election brought the “teal wave” into parliament. The next election will test whether teals, who occupy what were Liberal seats, and other independents can maintain their momentum. Joining us on the Podcast ...
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In The Week in Politics: politicians have to decide what to do about child abuse, Health NZ is booked in for major surgery and Darleen Tana returns. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Corbould, Associate Professor, Contemporary Histories Research Group, Deakin University Mainstream media are surprisingly muted at the prospect of the world’s most powerful nation being led for the first time by a woman – specifically a woman of colour, Vice President Kamala ...
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The Abuse in Care report found many Pacific survivors lost their connections to their culture and language, resulting in trauma that has been carried from generation to generation. ...
In the regulatory review, ECC intends to suggest that ERO focus on curriculum delivery reviews rather than the Ministry, because it’s not efficient or effective to have two agencies with radically different approaches climbing over each other. ...
Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori invites the current government to work in partnership with them to develop a pathway forward, including the development of a parallel pathway and meaningful policy and strategy for Kura Kaupapa Māori ...
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The government’s announcement that it will re-open the foreshore and seabed controversy by changing the rules on recognising centuries-old Māori customary title for a third time goes against the rule of law and New Zealand values,” Mr Tipa says. ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Lioness by Emily Perkins (Bloomsbury, $25) Roarrrr! Perkins’ brilliant, award-winning, Marian-Keyes anointed, darkly funny, long ...
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https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/01/property-prices-largest-national-value-increase-in-years-auckland-dunedin-soaring.html
I thought banning Chineese sounding named people buying houses was going to keep prices down?
Well, silly you then. Supply & demand dictate the outcome – so when you get govts of the left & right flooding Aotearoa with immigrants for many years, you get more people than available houses. Stopping the Chinese influx was just the first step, and it happened years later than it ought to have. Politicians ignored the problem for as long as they could, until voters started to notice it.
Given how thick voters are, that was always going to take years. So now the politicians want to cover all Ak's prime food-producing land with houses. We call this democracy in action. We could call it people-pollution.
The usual line – "Look! The coalition government's already been in power a couple of years and still hasn't fixed the problem National spent nine years aggravating! Who will save us from these incompetents? How about returning National to power? That would be the best solution, right?"
The problem is that the Government has done little to nothing. No one expects a full fix, but progress is a fair expectation wouldn't you agree?
You mean, little to nothing apart from ending various aggravating factors National had allowed to continue, extending the bright-line test, changing rental laws, re-building the Housing ministry and emarking on a massive house-building programme that's currently seeing the most state houses being built since the 1970s? Sour grapes much?
My grapes are ripe yet and I'm not eating them for at least another month….
All that you said on one side of the equation, balanced with: refusing to implement a CGT, not altering the landlord subsidy and keeping the migration tap open.
I notice you avoided bringing Kiwibuild into the discussion…
So, they haven't been able to do every single thing you wanted, which in your mind equates to them having done "little to nothing." Everyone's entitled to their opinion.
I didn't mention Kiwibuild because it's just one part of the house-building programme I mentioned. It's not a very successful part, which I suppose is why you raised it, but the government's programme still has thousands of houses being built every year, something we haven't seen for a long time. How is that "doing little to nothing?"
They have done quite a few things that I am stoked about: moving minimum wage towards living wage, kept quiet during JLR vs Bennett/Bridges, led in an appropriately compassionate way following ChCh murders/ Whakaari, re-entry @ Pike River.
My grizzle is what I mentioned (CGT, accom. supplement, migration) are what I expect from the other mob. Which, by the way, Labour have had three terms to plan how they could avoid the Kiwibuild 'mis-steps'.
Next to nothing is far from my thinking.
BTW, I meant my grapes aren't ripe.
No sour grapes from me. I own my own home. my lemon trees aren't liking the haze and lack of summer, but that's another issue.
My issue is that we are continuously expected to just believe labours election promise that they will fix the housing crises, when all the metrics and evidence point to a complete lack of control of the situation by this government.
How long do we keep having blind faith in this government because apparently the other lot are so bad?
My issue is that we are continuously expected to just believe labours election promise that they will fix the housing crises…
Did they promise to have this crisis that was 15 years in the making fixed within two years? That would have been very foolish of them, and it would have been very foolish of you to believe it if they had promised it.
How long do we keep having blind faith in this government because apparently the other lot are so bad?
Again, having blind faith would be foolish. The question is, which of the alternatives in front of this election has policies more likely to improve the housing situation, and which has policies more likely to degrade it further? If you'd prefer the situation to improve, then yes you'd better support this government because the other lot will degrade it further.
Do I A) want the housing crises to worsen slowly so that there is no end in sight or B) do I want to ride unchecked until it’s inevitable crash and hope the government of the day is brave enough to not give bailouts to the enabling parties?
given a desire for either scenario, which major bloc do I vote for Milt? The answers aren’t there as no government of either colour is willing to admit they prefer the outcome of A as it kicks the can so far down the road it won’t be their problem.
Classic Trump / Hillary problem at the moment with the majors. Who do I not want to vote for the least
The Greens have interventionist housing policies.
Yet not the power to implement them. This is mmp, we have to think about power blocs.
If people don't vote for them they don't have the power to implement their policies, no. You can help rectify that situation by voting for them.
But they have been voted for, and they are in government. Yet the problems seem to be getting worse and not better.
Jesus, this again. Bitching about a party with 8 MPs failing to dominate the legislative agenda just makes you look stupid. If you want to see more of their policies implemented, encourage more people to vote for them.
not really how politics works is it though milt?
its getting boring listening to people defend a government 2/3 of the way through its term that is yet to achieve anything meaningful on housing, despite all the rhetoric. Are we supposed to just believe that it will all change for the better if we blindly vote for another term despite current performance?
your exasperation is misplaced. Tell the pollies, the voters are sick of being told they’re stupid for not blindly agreeing
And where is labour on this? They had interventionist policies on housing too and between them and the greens they did have enough votes to dominate the legislative agenda.
That's exactly how it works, that is, get more mps under mmp and you'll proportionally have more clout around a coalition table.
For example: 40 labour mps and 21 greens, will give you much more left of centre policy than what's offered currently.
30 labour seats and 31 greens would be totally different again.
What bit are you not getting?.
The current government has how many mps? Enough to govern correct?
And how many promises did they make on housing? enough to get voted in.
Now voters get to choose whether those promises were kept
And when you look at the make up of this government and find that nz fist have to be placated on some issues, things like the CGT don't get done, which is exactly why the flavour numbers of mps in a coalition matter. It’s not having a simple majority that really counts under mmp.
not really how politics works is it though milt?
As The Al1en pointed out already, that's exactly how politics works. If not enough people vote for parties with the kind of policies you'd like to see, those policies don't get enacted.
its getting boring listening to people defend a government 2/3 of the way through its term that is yet to achieve anything meaningful on housing, despite all the rhetoric.
The achievements are substantial, especially when you take into account the scale of the problem and the fact the government is a coalition of three parties with sometimes-incompatible agendas. As mentioned already, if you want to see more progress, persuade more people to vote for the party with the policies you want to see enacted and discourage them from voting for parties that will only exacerbate the problem.
…between [Labour] and the greens they did have enough votes to dominate the legislative agenda.
Between them they have 54 seats in a 120-seat Parliament. If you have some hitherto-unknown method of dominating the legislative agenda with a minority of the MPs, please do share it with them.
""Look! The coalition government's already been in power a couple of years and still hasn't fixed the problem National spent nine years aggravating! Who will save us from these incompetents? How about returning National to power? That would be the best solution, right?""
Classic Jamesisms, nicely captured by Psycho Milt.
a classic guytonism, assuming that because isn't fixed entirely, that it's in hand and will be fixed if we have enough faith in his chosen cause
Classic Climaction – decrying others' faith, but showing none of his/her own.
Pray tell us, Climaction – What should we all do in your depiction of our dire situation?
Break the Wesfarmers / fletchers building materials supply duopoly, create a nationally funded apprentice college network similar to the old polytechnics and insist that master tradesmen engage at a guild level for apprentices for master accreditation, remove council fees beyond processing costs on consents and therefore the gst on council fees.
Now what do you suggest? Let me guess….kiwibuild reset?
No, strangely enough, I agree with your propositions in that area. Quite good ideas to my mind.
We may be on the same side. The thing is that you appeared to be suggesting that we dump current Govt and vote National again.
Voting National would never achieve what you propose, would it?
No. I’m just not defending this governments behaviour on the premise that National were worse. It’s binary and allows this government to abdicate any responsibility for contributing to the mess
But if you thereby encourage people to vote National instead, what happens then?
Our over priced housing has multiple causes … all that's happened is one form of aggravation; hot Chinese money looking for a safe haven has been replaced by another aggravation … persistently low interest rates.
And as Dennis says … high migration. One factor everyone likes to pretend won't happen, what happens if the Australian economy/climate tanks and around 500,000 passport holding kiwis with limited access to welfare over the ditch decide to come home? Lowish likelihood, but potentially a big impact.
Yes I've been wondering how much these recent few seasons will be prompting kiwis to rethink Oz. I was always eyeing Tassie as a plan B.
I know many who are seriously considering it now their kids are self sufficient as living in those Ozzie cities is getting to be quite the grind.
There's also expats in the UK and Hong Kong looking for an escape from the political turmoil, plus Australians looking to escape the climate turmoil.
There was an opinion piece at the weekend from a real estate agent salivating at the prospect. He described NZ as having a glowing future.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/118569686/house-prices-will-continue-their-steady-growth-in-2020-but-lets-wait-and-see-about-this-election
Yes the low interest rates are the latest tool' to defy market realities.
No Govt can withstand a large drop in property prices.
Hopefully the Coalition or Labour alone, can prevail in the next election and really bring about some programmes to make the Kiwi dream affordable again.
This steady as she goes term ,albeit with good intentions needs to transform into inspired action.
Add into the 500,000 plus New Zealand passport holders several million Australian passport holders who can reside, and buy property, in New Zealand and we could have an accomodation crisis of unimaginable proportions.
I'm not convinced it's likely … but it's a risk we rarely discuss. Given that almost 25% of people ever born in NZ are now living overseas, we are remarkably exposed on this.
The silver lining is that most ex-pats would return with some decent funds and much of it would go into building new housing.
Low interest rates are not driving house prices to any extent, just as high interest rates didn't proclude house price rises prior to the GFC. The reserve bank could raise interest rates to the extent of collapsing the housing market but would at the same time cause mass defaults and probably a recession. This is not a valid policy for an institution charged with promoting financial stability.
But directly there is no good reason to believe people are significantly trading off interest rates and prices when going into the housing market. The theoretical economic concept of a natural interest rate (for the central bank to target) is also known to be pretty dubious.
The Reserve Bank is not there to "Fix" the current housing crisis. We were told during the election campaign that there this WAS an issue and that should we vote in Labour then this would be rectified. They had 9 years in Govt and 9 years in opposition to isolate the causes and implement fixes to these.
To date there is no evidence that any changes made have halted this issue and that there are signs of the housing crisis abating. To continue with the immigration policy of increasing Kiwis by 55k p.a. does nothing but place increased pressure.
and headlines like this "Rental squeeze: Easier to find a job in Wellington than a flat, says professional on $100,000 salary" does not give confidence that this crisis has been addressed, but has deteriorated.
Are any current or future govts just hoping that the Market Will correct of that there is a recession 🤢??
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/103058/people-arriving-nz-work-and-long-term-visitor-visas-record-highs-12-months-october
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12298132
Does the inherent contradiction in your post escape you.
Look at house prices pre 2008 and now!
A 400k house @ 8% ,vs an 800k house @ 4%.
Savers have been getting their heads kicked in and RE has a reputation as an appreciating asset and the best 'bank' for funds compared to anything.
Interest rates and exchange rates are an artificial construct and do not reflect any supposed 'market' forces.
"Does the inherent contradiction in your post escape you.
Look at house prices pre 2008 and now!"
A quick look at the RBNZ house price index should demonstrate to you that house prices were rising faster prior to 2008 than since.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-house-price-values
The % rate of increase is not the point.
The total cost is.
When historical house price to income ratios are compared with those today,there is an imbalance of concern.
Scrutiny of the sub prime fiasco in the U.S will reveal the frenzy of loan originators to peddle mortgages to anyone with a pulse.
(There was a corresponding increase in supply in the U.S too and non recourse.)
Whilst that has not happened to the same extent here,one feature is very evident and that is ,existing home owners have been increasing borrowing leverage ,ie the wealth effect.
The extension of the brightline test to 5 years appears to have stymied flipping and the foreign buyer rules are having effect. (screaming in Queenstown).
Orr is correct in increasing the banks cap ratios.
People should expect a correlation between house prices and wages and C.P.I
It is no wonder property is excluded from inflation assessments,it would blow them to kingdom come.
$650,000 homes are not affordable homes.
When the rubber hits the road(*recession)people will look to the Govt for a bail out,that's for sure.
We are clearly on different dimensions regarding the meaning of facts and logic. I am sticking to my conclusion that the rate of house price inflation can be measured as the percentage rate of those prices increasing.
So whats the primary cause of interest rate fluctuations for mortgages?
As far as facts and logic go….'there is no good reason to believe people are significantly trading off interest rates and prices when going into the housing market. '
In your world cost and affordability are not aligned.
The most important factor in setting market interest rates appears to be the OCR. Eg its the interest rate the reserve bank wants. But obviously the reserve bank policy doesn't fluctuate much (and I don't see why that is a relevant thing here).
In the real world cost and affordability are not well aligned. Cost is related to the house price but affordability is a question of income which in a lot of cases doesn't even come from the asset or in other cases is a positive function of asset price appreciation. People buying into the housing market (esp for profit) seem mostly interested in which areas are going to appreciate next, not what the going interest rates are.
Interesting given conventional wisdom…
'For example, the Reserve Bank would tend to increase the OCR in response to an increase in inflation pressure. The rise in the OCR would tend to flow through to higher bank interest rates, which would offset the pressure by shifting preferences from consumption to saving, because the cost of borrowing has increased, and the return from savings is also higher. This translates into a lower demand for consumption and investment goods, easing the inflation pressure in the economy. When the OCR is raised, it also results in an appreciation of the New Zealand dollar because the demand for New Zealand interest-earning investments increases. As the demand for the New Zealand dollar increases, the value of the dollar appreciates. The higher dollar dampens exports and increases the demand for the relatively cheaper imports, also lowering demand and thus the inflation pressures.'
As far as property inflation goes ,it has been rampant for years and the opposite to the above is being implemented.
Sure, but you know that this conventional wisdom is wrong. This is because there is no such market for savings vs borrowing to trade off in. I have observed in your comments that you know that market doesn't exist because banks originate the funds during the lending process (eg nobody loses access to there savings when a new loan is created so the described trade off doesnt occur).
@ Blazer
The inflation measure is the CPI and house prices are only nominally measured within the CPI (building cost increases excluding land) …existing housing asset (bubbles) dont form part of the CPI, some may say conveniently
Nic. You always make challenging replies. You are right that interest rates by themselves are not a direct predictor of house prices … but the ability to service a loan is. We are in quite a different position prior to the GFC, mortgages were typically small enough that interest rates in the 7-9% range could be tolerated.
But now with many households with over $500k of debt, or a lot more, they're a much more sensitive to even quite small interest rate rises.
This is an effect Steven Keen wrote a fair bit on, in the big picture Debt to GDP ratio was a critical parameter most economists didn't place enough importance on at the time. He's been proven right and we see a lot more attention on it now.
I saw what appears a quite enlightening comment by Warren Mosler recently. He describes the inflation process as a price setting mechanism occuring when new (higher) prices are accepted by the institution making payment.
That suggests that commercial banks have been driving house prices with the change to lower equity loans, which the reserve bank has had some influence on. The US had a significant issue with property valuers over valueing properties (at the behest of banks) and this also supports house price inflation.
I don't actually see it as a housing market issue however. Overall the government has not been as accomodating of public sector wages (same mechanism as Mosler describes, govt chooses what to pay public sector) and the shift to monetary policy has squeezed private sector wages for many as well. Its no wonder that housing costs are well above incomes after 20+ years of this pressure. The only surprising thing is that so many people expect a natural and automatic balance to exist between housing and other prices (including wages).
I had already identified during the last election that Labours Kiwi build policy could not 'fix' house prices and was at most hopeful that public sector housing stock would be built. Looking at the housing market as supply and demand driven will never suggest a workable solution to house prices. Asset markets are not remotely amenable to that because asset inflation generates passive income at the same time it adds cost to new market entrants.
Good points; that all makes sense. Any chance of a link to Warren Mosler please?
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=44010
Its about a 26 minute video i think.
Ta.
I see Keen and Mosler have an interesting looking video on YT @ Real Progressives.
I think I found and watched this discussion (June 2018).
At a later stage Mosler makes the same claim that a permanent zero interest rate central bank policy is not inflationary.
I thought Keen was a bit off in his disagreements there. But its probably relevant to understand that a trade surplus makes domestic policy easier to implement.
but that asset price MUST remain serviceable…. otherwise mass default a la GFC subprime mortgages. And the banks (including central) set the rates and create the lending with one eye on that at all times to their maximum perceived benefit…..and we all hope their judgement is not found wanting (again)
I make the distinction between the individual and the systemic…banks (including central) are unconcerned with the individual
Also, I don't see the argument that interest rates of 7-9% were tolerable as saying anything meaningful. The model is not, the Reserve Bank sets interest rates as high as may be tolerated. The model is something like, the Reserve Bank sets an interest rate to bring inflation rate towards the target.
The (small) problems being that monetary policy has neglegible impact on inflation anyway and some key prices (wages and housing) are adjusting relatively to each other in problematic ways.
Socialism as yet undead: "Spain's caretaker socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has narrowly won a confidence vote in parliament, enabling him to govern in coalition with far-left Podemos." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51019358
"The dramatic open vote, by a simple majority of MPs, went 167 to 165 in his favour. Abstentions by Catalan and Basque MPs played a critical role. He will now form a minority government. It will be Spain's first coalition government since democracy was restored in 1978, after the Franco dictatorship."
Can socialists do consensus politics? This will be the test. "The new coalition plans to raise income taxes for those who earn more than €130,000 (£111,000; $145,000) annually. They also plan to reverse some labour market reforms passed by the previous conservative government, which made it easier and less expensive to fire workers."
"PSOE spokeswoman Adriana Lastra accused right-wing MPs of "bullying"." Combining complaint with virtue-signalling in a single word. "She said MP Tomás Guitarte of the small Teruel Existe party had suffered so much pressure that he concealed his whereabouts out of fear. She said he had received more than 8,000 emails urging him to vote "no" instead of "yes"." If 8000 emails arrived in your inbox one day would you run & hide?? Nah, get tough, don't wilt under pressure.
"The ERC decision came after Mr Sánchez agreed to open a formal dialogue on the future of Catalonia, if confirmed as prime minister, and to then submit the dialogue's conclusions to Catalan voters. The Catalan separatists' drive for independence overshadows Spanish politics, with the conservative and far-right opposition parties bitterly opposed to it. Mr Sánchez said he wanted to free Spanish politics of its "toxic atmosphere". He said dialogue was necessary to "overcome the territorial disputes, always in line with the constitution". The PSOE opposes granting Catalans a legal independence referendum, while recognising that both Catalonia and the Basque Country are nations within Spain, and not just regions. The Catalans and Basques already have a large degree of autonomy."
Another Catalan vote seems sensible. If he can design a compromise between enhanced autonomy & independence, and Catalans vote to support it, he will have proven his expertise – and socialism will get some regeneration via consensus politics.
So the Asia Editor of the Financial Times can’t help wondering what on earth Simon Bridges might have to say to the Head of China’s secret police?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/118419927/national-mp-jian-yang-organised-simon-bridges-controversial-china-trip-emails-show
simon would have had fuck all to say ,he was their to listen would be my guess
Simon would have received a silky treatment to smoothen the path. He wouldn’t have to say much because, unlike Simon, they are masters in reading body language and would have read him like an open book. They saw him coming all the way from New Zealand.
From the horses mouth (or at least their twittering): "to discuss the many areas our countries have in common and how we can strengthen ties."
As its the CCP secret police, I assume the ties are cable ties used on interviewees.
Croatians have ditched the far right:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/06/croatia-elects-leftist-zoran-milanovic-to-be-next-president?
Greens defence spokesperson: "I think that is a good place for New Zealand to be, that we stand as a principled voice on the international stage and we do call out our allies". https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/406869/new-zealand-should-be-a-principled-voice-as-us-iran-tensions-rise-golriz-ghahraman-says
The relevant principle being non-alignment. Being allied tends to look like non-conformity to the principle, huh? I don't see our help with peace-keeping overseas as making us allies with whatever else country is likewise helping. However, as regards being in the arena when the yanks launch attack drones, perception that we are allied with them could indeed be a problem.
I hope the Greens can get the coalition to see that. Golriz seems to have issued an appropriate message, muted and politic, well done. Now Iraq has called for us to head for the exit, let's do that asap.
Thanks Wayne. It needed to be said and a former Defence Minister with Foreign Affairs credentials was the right person to start the ball rolling:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/406882/like-throwing-a-match-on-tinder-paper-wayne-mapp-on-us-iran-tensions
But the time is rapidly coming when political leaders and former political leaders need to start sheeting home scathing criticisms directly to the persons responsible ie. Donald Trump and his inner sanctum heavies.
At the moment they act like they are treading oven broken egg shells. All that does is provide the Chump with further evidence he can get away with anything he likes.
Snap. Just popped that on another post.
'It's too expensive for us to allow you to stay here so we have to make sure you leave.'
Good on you, Lees-Galloway, good on you.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/118630641/brain-tumour-survivor-to-be-deported-to-the-philippines-over-medical-costs
This has shades of Lianne Dalziel circa 2002 all over it.
Iirc, Dalziel as Minister of Immigration about that time, sent back to Sri Lanka a young child whose parents were resident, but not citizens, and the child was neither? I could be wrong (probably am) but Lees-Galloway's decision here seems similar.
Labour ministers never seem to have a good record in the immigration portfolio.
Prior to new year's eve, BBC reported Putin "thanked US counterpart Donald Trump for intelligence that helped foil "acts of terrorism" on Russian soil, according to a Kremlin statement. Mr Putin and Mr Trump spoke on the phone on Sunday, it said. The Kremlin said the information came via intelligence services, but it provided no further details."
"Russian media is reporting the discovery of a plot to attack St Petersburg over the new year period. Tass news agency says two Russian nationals have been arrested and plans to attack a mass gathering were seized, according to a spokesperson from the FSB, the Russian intelligence agency." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50941754
It would have been sensible for Trump to have sussed out how Putin felt about his option of taking out the Iranian general, during their discussion. However Trump is rarely sensible, and the option may have come up fast due to being sourced in observation – secret travel arrangements usually don't forewarn opponents.
"In December 2017, Mr Putin thanked Mr Trump for another warning from US intelligence agencies, which again apparently prevented a terrorist plot in St Petersburg, according to a White House account. During that call, the Kremlin said Mr Putin had promised to reciprocate with information about terrorist threats to the United States."
Never discount the value of a verbal contract between top leaders in geopolitics, however conditional they may be. I suspect the two have a reasonable understanding on a personal level. It's a question of how destabilising Putin feels the assassination actually is.
"The German chancellor will travel to Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin this coming Saturday. The pair plan to discuss the Iran escalation as well as the conflicts in Ukraine, Libya and Syria." https://www.dw.com/en/putin-invites-merkel-to-russia-over-iran-crisis/a-51900382
Looks like Putin is being sensible in getting an impartial perspective from the German leader, to avoid the knee-jerk response and optimise his options.
Very interesting. In my mind I've always painted Trump and Putin as 'about as bad as each other, but in very different ways'. What they do have in common is that both are nationalists, and neither man is a sociopath who wants nothing more than to visit devastation on the world.
Putin is first and foremost a Russian nationalist who has led his country to a remarkable recovery from the disaster of the 90's. He absolutely doesn't want a US-Iran confrontation on his southern border region.
Trump is similarly a US nationalist, but who has inherited an intolerable shambles from prior Administrations. He want’s out too, but is so entangled in the ME that he needs to slash and burn some crap first.
That they are talking is more reason to hope than not.
What are your thoughts on the Iran Nuclear agreement and the way Darth Drumpf trashed it, even though his own administration was certifying that Iran was fully complying with it?
My first thoughts are that someone in Israel didn't give a fuck about compliance …
Israel? That's an interesting angle.
Nutty-yahoo has certainly been sending mixed messages in public about the Soleimani murder. Haaretz has an interesting piece about how he benefits …
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-for-trump-criticism-over-soleimani-assassination-was-better-than-inaction-1.8353402
N will have been briefed beforehand. Consulted, even, would be my guess. There's a good reason the top jew in the Trump team was put closest to the oval office. "Kushner's office is physically the closest to the Oval Office."
"Trump put Kushner in charge of brokering peace in Israeli–Palestinian conflict, as well as making deals with foreign countries, although in what way he is in charge is unclear. On August 24, 2017, Kushner traveled to Israel to talk to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (with whom Kushner has longstanding personal links and family ties".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Kushner
Need some laundering done..?
Trump spins on a dime. Here's his framing of the u-turn: "Mr Trump said that "according to various laws" the US should not target these cultural sites. "You know what, if that's what the law is, I like to obey the law," he said." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51027619
Notice the subtle caveat. Guiliani or someone gives him views on which laws it might be a good idea to obey, or when it may be timely to create that impression in the public mind.
"The ruling national executive committee (NEC) will meet on Monday to decide the timetable for electing Jeremy Corbyn’s successor, who can have a vote and how much they should pay to do so." https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-election-rebecca-long-bailey-kier-starmer-jess-phillips-a9271196.html
Voters rejected Corbyn's socialism, so the Labour mandarins feel they must swing back to market forces and are waving an olive branch at the Blairites?
They could go further. Tell the people that selling the right to vote to the highest bidder is a damn good idea. Have an auction. Middle class wannabes would love it. Get Simon Cowell to stage the thing for primetime tv – suddenly Labour would seem trendy to a huge swathe of voters. 🙄
I paid $5 to vote for Andrew Little as Labour leader. All cobwebs as regards social democracy in that party but present pricks, tho' more sellable, are worse. I hear the party in Britain is now firmly Corbynist in membership, and up the echelons a bit. Which is what I desired from and desire from Corbyn and Sanders respectively.
Sometimes you have to wonder how much the loony Christian fundamentalism within the US government want to see the world burn. Dick Cheney, being the one who opened the door.
Video is 25 minutes long, and good view from a former staffer in the Bush Presidency.
Great link, thanks Aaron. 😉
Aljazeera TV have just reported that multiple Iranian missiles have hit a U.S. airbase in Iraq.
"The Pentagon said Iran fired more than a dozen missiles. "It is clear that these missiles were launched from Iran and targeted at least two Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. military and coalition personnel at Al-Assad and Irbil," Jonathan Hoffman, assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, said in a statement." https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/us-iran-soleimani-tensions-intl-01-07-20/index.html
If Pompeo wasn't killed, Iran has failed to achieve parity. Mullahs failing to respond severely, after declaring they would, are likely to lose credibility in the opinions of their followers. Will the govt of Iraq declare war on Iran? An unprovoked attack on two of their bases merits the traditional response. Having told all foreigners to get out, these tough guys are dead keen to go it alone. Or maybe not…
What a puerile, childish and idiotic comment. The Iraqi government is powerless.
The two bases hit are effectively US territory, and they are unequivocally major US military installations being unequivocally attacked by the military of Iran.
The Greek chorus of Trumpian chumps who made light on this site of the assassination of Qassem Suleimani completely failed to grasp that by carrying out that killing the United States effectively declared war on Iran. No nation can sit back and allow another to assassinate it's top leaders with impunity. Iran is now taking the US at it's word and has struck back.
To make it clear – by any reasonable standard of international behaviour a state of war has existed between Iran and the United States since the 3rd of January 2020.
What the fuck did the US administration think Iran would do after that assassination?
Iran and the US have been in a state of conflict for a very long time … while it's true the Trump pushed events over an important threshold in the past week … none of this happened in a vacuum.
The theocratic thugs who run the Iranian regime are not nice innocent people, any more than any of the other cynical bastards tangled up in this.
Get a grip, lad. If they were US bases CNN would have described them as such. Or are you trying to subtly imply CNN journalists can't even get such elementary facts right??
How adequate the response from Iran has been remains to be seen from casualty figures. My point was re the court of public opinion in Iran. Loss of their top military commander, weighed in the balance against how many US soldiers?
Most people would view that as an ineffective response regardless. Think of it as a chess move: lose a Queen and retaliate by taking a few pawns. Doesn't rate.
I think you are an uninformed idiot.
Hey Sanctuary, in the interests of not increasing people's stress, can you please tone down the pejoratives? It's fine to point to perceived ignorance in comments with some analysis, but once you start aiming that at people and name calling, it becomes a problem for moderators.
I hear you, but at the same time if someone writes six plus posts of 600 odd words and then reveals he isn't even aware of what bases the US has in Iraq…
Well, being called an idiot I would have thought is as polite a reply as one should expect.
I bite my tongue on the internet all the time 😉 The choices we make about what we write after reacting are what determine whether a shit fight breaks out (and then whether the mods get involved).
Think of it as practice for election year.
I admit I was teasing him. But since he didn't tell the truth (refer to joint bases) tweaking his tail was fair enough, eh?
The point being that the rockets were an offensive action against both countries – Iraq and USA. I get why leftists are addicted to demonising the USA. Spent much of my life feeling that way too! But political commentary is more effective when based on fact rather than misrepresentation.
"I admit I was teasing him. But since he didn't tell the truth (refer to joint bases) tweaking his tail was fair enough, eh?"
No idea. I'm not reading much of the commentary on this, just enough to keep an eye on moderation and what might be developing. My main point here would be that tensions are high enough without us winding each other up 🙂 Where that line lies is on all of us.
Just as the US drone strike in the Iraqi airport was a offensive action against both Iraq and Iran. Looks to me like a proportionate response bearing in mind that the drone didn’t give radar warnings of have to go through have to go through anti-missile defenses.
Who are those “most people”, Dennis? Where are they, mostly? In Iran, by any chance?
Most people understand tit for tat. It's even in the Bible (`an eye for an eye'). But, as I pointed out in 12.1, re the effect on the credibility of the mullahs, those that count are in Iran.
The reason Sanctuary is doing his hysterical thing is that the truth hurts, so folks get emotional. Once the feelings subside, a cooler clearer appraisal becomes possible…
I think a “cooler clearer appraisal” might not apply to “most people” in Iran now. I think the Kiwis in Iraq might also have slightly heightened emotions.
Attention Jenny: noting a Moderation note is not sufficient. You need to respond to it in a way that shows that you understand and accept your moderation otherwise we’ll just go around in circles, which will lead to a lengthy ban.
Until I’ve seen a satisfactory response from you, you can stop posting comments because they will automatically end up in Trash and I have no means to restore them retrospectively (and this would take up more of my precious time).
Attention Ross: Please stop ‘testing’ because it won’t get you anywhere until you respond to the latest Moderation note that was left for you to respond to and satisfy the Moderator.
Test
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
Test reply to Test.
See? More than one of us can waste screenspace.
But only one of you is in Moderation 😉
I only test when the reply button goes walkabout. Submitting a comment returns the reply option, and then I delete the test message (unless this sticky mouse button posts two entries, as it sometimes does, then only one test entry permits editing).
I know you do 😉
Refreshing the browser sometimes helps.
Nah, tried all options, including deleting browser data, ccleaning, purging, fasting and praying to the aliens. Only thing that fixes it (for me) is to make a test post.
Sorry for the troublesome desk rodent when it plays up, though. I should pick up a new key/mouse set at some stage, but at least the reason for my tests are out there now. lol
A friend of mine lifes in Arkansas,
she send this text
Aljazeera TV are reporting at least two U.S. airbases have been hit and another wave of Iranian missiles have been launched.
https://twitter.com/DEFCONWSALERTS/status/1214701382068031488
https://www.twitter.com/DEFCONWSALERTS/status/1214710060754120705
Of course it's going cost us.
https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1214696126676393986
oil price increases are a useful thing.
and interest rates?
you'd need to be more specific.
shares fall,oil and gold and interest rates tend to move upwards.
could be useful too. Consumption is the big driver of CC. The problem for NZ is that we choose not to protect vulnerable people. It won't hurt the middle classes to tighten their belts, but I wish they'd learn to share more.
on the contrary…if oil increases it will impact 'growth' and the expected reaction would be an interest rate cut to offset (if there were room to cut) the reduced economic activity
Depends what it does to inflation for the rbnz to cut.if there are pricing signals of an increase the rbnz wont cut.
Internal food costs are sensitive to transport (and a poor growing season at present due to colder weather) impacts the poor firstly on a day to day basis.
RBNZ has 'looked through' potential inflationary spikes for years now….any inflationary impact is likely to be temporary, remembering that fuel prices typically fluctuate through quite a wide range for various reasons….however as said the likely impact on interest rates (if any) would be expected to be down rather than up
The reckless actions of Trump has given Iran a casus belli to act in self defence. They are acting on that. So it begins.
Lucky Trump's actions were triggered by something irrelevant, something that doesn't mean anything to him – impeachment – an illegal action of course and without any evidence. (he reckons.)
Imagine how crazy he'd have gone if he was more personally challenged like his tax and financial records facing the usual open scrutiny and ensuing legal challenges. The claimant of the biggest dick being found to need a magnifying glass to be identified would have really set him off.
[Be careful typing your user name correctly, thanks]
The Iranians have made no attempt to hide their direct attack on US forces in Iraq. This is a state action, a response to what was basically a US declaration of war on them. The only hope now for peace is for Trump to panic and chicken out. I really hope Trump doesn't think this is a good war to help his re-election bid. A US president who loses a war won't be popular.
someone needs to turn of this tv and the fox propaganda war. Cause literally Fox and Friends is giving him tips on whom to bomb next.
Shit Taji is where the ANZAC training team is atm, I hope Jandal’s tells Ronnie to get the troop asap and thank **** I’m no longer in the Forces and if they do ask me back to the colours it will be a f*** off sunshine etc as I’m not fighting for dumps silly little war / WW3 the Yanks started it so let them finish it without us.
All we need is Rocket man to throw something at Dump and Putin to do something in the Baltic, come to think I’ve read a novel by someone on this same scenario where a war kicks off in the Sandpit and rest fall like dominos.
Yup. You nail it so often. While many of us contribute here in a cool, detached way … your down to it comments keep us grounded.
Putin is in syria at the moment.
https://twitter.com/rnz_news/status/1214704988686913537
https://twitter.com/Tofazzal_Alam/status/1214730282923892736
Poission, I’m not too worried about the Russians in Syria as they have in Syria since late 50’s to early 60’s from memory. But it’s Baltic States that are the weak link to NATO and to EU, if I were a betting man that where I think Putin will strike nexts therefore splitting the western alliance/ economy.
just no words
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7863359/Ukrainian-passenger-plane-carrying-180-people-crashes-near-Tehran-local-media.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR38k4Xw07vRjHb6crZ9DhR27yHCiAHf4neNeEc4gXnig15hXHUoGPYrUQk&fbclid=IwAR0fvKsm0IqarybIrx66844SqlMfMnLItPLihmfoFZTOUD5Hxcrorcnenlo&fbclid=IwAR0EUwrWaP8jFFbsM0GCflp70skFWe_woHbbrDkFJCWaTihfMeK-L2ZOUX8
Just watching Trump's son rabbiting on about great his father is. He hasn't said he agrees so much about sorting the Middle East out that he's putting his hand up to go there and help. Funny that.
Last time I was at Kiwiblog they had a regular 400 odd commenters. Versus Left blogs with a quarter of that. 'Kommon Zense' as per talkback radio? Appealing to know-nothingers with a near body to kick apparently beats reason, balance, Ballance, Savage and the whole of our corner of knowledge.
It's very hard to denie climate change global warming and Sealevels rising is our reality. All the intelligence people must keep up the Mana mahi and champion a clean and Green future for all of our mokopuna.
The 2010s were almost certainly the hottest decade on record — and it showed. The world burned, melted and flooded. Heat waves smashed temperature records around the globe. Glaciers lost ice at accelerating rates. Sea levels continued to swell.
At the same time, scientists have diligently worked to untangle the chaos of a rapidly warming planet.
In the past decade, scientists substantially improved their ability to draw connections between climate change and extreme weather events. They made breakthroughs in their understanding of ice sheets. They raised critical questions about the implications of Arctic warming. They honed their predictions about future climate change
The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, with temperatures rising at least twice as fast as the global average.
places like the United States, Europe and parts of Asia — for instance, a link between shrinking sea ice and cold winters in Siberia, or Arctic heat waves and extreme winter weather in the United States.
The trouble is models have a hard time capturing the causes driving these connections.
"No one argues that the Arctic meltdown will affect weather patterns, the question is exactly how," said Arctic climate expert Jennifer Francis, a researcher at Woods Hole Research Center. "So figuring out what's not right in the models will be a major focus. Without realistic models, it's hard to use them to separate Arctic influences from other possible factors."
Resolving the debate will require "a combination of data and modeling," according to NASA climatologist Claire Parkinson. Many scientists are already hard at work on this issue.
One ongoing project known as the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project is conducting a series of coordinated model experiments, all using the same standard methods, to investigate the Arctic climate and its connections to the rest of the globe. Experts say these kinds of projects may help explain why modeling studies conducted by different groups with different methods don't always get the same results.
At the same time, improving the way that physical processes are represented in Arctic climate models is also essential, according to Xiangdong Zhang, an Arctic and atmospheric scientist at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.
Outside that debate, there are still big questions about the Arctic climate to resolve. Scientists know the Arctic is heating up at breakneck speed — but they're still investigating all the reasons why.
Researchers believe a combination of feedback processes are probably at play. Sea ice and snow help reflect sunlight away from the Earth. As they melt away, they allow more heat to reach the surface, warming the local climate and causing even more melting to occur.
One key question for the coming decade, Zhang said in an email, is "what relative role each of the physical processes plays and how these processes work together" to drive the accelerating warming.
Unraveling these feedbacks will help scientists better predict how fast the Arctic will warm in the future, according to Francis — and how quickly they should expect its consequences to occur. They include vanishing sea ice, thawing permafrost and melting on the Greenland ice sheet
Sea-level rise is one of the most serious consequences of climate change, with the potential to displace millions of people in coastal areas around the world.
Ka kite Ano link below.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/these-are-the-biggest-climate-questions-for-the-new-decade/
Kia Ora Newshub.
It is not on that a student can be left dead in a room unnoticed for that long there needs to be checks on students.
That's good that the Hawke's Bay health board change the move to stop home help for 600 elderly people.
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
Someone in Watties had a brain fart thinking it is OK to belittle Te reo Maori for putea.
I read that some one passed on Maunga Tongariro Condolences to Te Whanau.
Great to see more Tangata Whenua doctors and nurses graduates.
Golf is a good game for tangata to play and make a mahi out of the sport.
Ka kite Ano
Looks like the sis sandflys have finished their new year holiday they were swarming again today.
There are many old technologically advanced societies around the world that have vanished. They have built structures that our modern society can not duplicate even with all our modern technology.???? So what caused the collapse of these old civilisation the same thing that is causing our world problems man taking mother nature for granted. Climate change and global warming sea level rising. Our scientists have waved a red flag for 40 years. The wealthiest people choose to ignore their warnings and worse they use their money to distort the reality of common people who some they know will be easily manipulated into believing there lies giving them power and in reality putting there own mokopuna in the jeopardy Wake up.
The environment in 2050: flooded cities, forced migration – and the Amazon turning to savannah
Unless we focus on shared solutions, violent storms and devastating blazes could be the least of the world’s troubles. Civilisation itself will be at risk
Good morning. Here is the shipping forecast for midday, 21 June, 2050. Seas will be rough, with violent storms and visibility ranging from poor to very poor for the next 24 hours. The outlook for tomorrow is less fair.”
All being well, this could be a weather bulletin released by the Met Office and broadcast by the BBC in the middle of this century. Destructive gales may not sound like good news, but they will be among the least of the world’s problems in the coming era of peak climate turbulence. With social collapse a very real threat in the next 30 years, it will be an achievement in 2050 if there are still institutions to make weather predictions, radio transmitters to share them and seafarers willing to listen to the archaic content.
I write this imaginary forecast with an apology to Tim Radford, the former Guardian science editor, who used the same device in 2004 to open a remarkably prescient prediction on the likely impacts of global warming on the world in 2020.
Journalists generally hate to go on record about the future. We are trained to report on the very recent past, not gaze into crystal balls. On those occasions when we have to venture ahead of the present, most of us play it safe by avoiding dates that could prove us wrong, or quoting others.
Radford allowed himself no such safe distance or equivocation in 2004, which we should remember as a horribly happy year for climate deniers. George W Bush was in the White House, the Kyoto protocol had been recently zombified by the US Congress, the world was distracted by the Iraq war and fossil fuel companies and oil tycoons were pumping millions of dollars into misleading ads and dubious research that aimed to sow doubt about science.
Radford looked forward to a point when global warming was no longer so easy to ignore. Applying his expert knowledge of the best science available at the time, he predicted 2020 would be the year when the planet started to feel the heat as something real and urgent
Radford allowed himself no such safe distance or equivocation in 2004, which we should remember as a horribly happy year for climate deniers. George W Bush was in the White House, the Kyoto protocol had been recently zombified by the US Congress, the world was distracted by the Iraq war and fossil fuel companies and oil tycoons were pumping millions of dollars into misleading ads and dubious research that aimed to sow doubt about science.
Radford looked forward to a point when global warming was no longer so easy to ignore. Applying his expert knowledge of the best science available at the time, he predicted 2020 would be the year when the planet started to feel the heat as something real and urgent.
Ka kite Ano link below.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/30/environment-2050-flooded-cities-forced-migration-amazon-turning-savannah
Kia Ora Newshub.
North land experienceing drought we have to listen to our scientists and plan for the weather conditions that they have forcast or else one will be in trouble.
A green turtle laying its eggs on a popular beach in Australia it good they have people with the knowledge to move the turtle eggs safely.
That's great Simaria getting The BBC to pay you the same putea as men Mana Wahine.
Trees grow much faster in Aotearoa than other countries maple syrup would be a great sestanable tree crop.
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
Hinewai great mahi to get on the Hawke's Bay Regional Council first tangata whenua and a Wahine at that.
Mama donuts looks like it going great franchise to Ka pai just like making fry bread.
Mana Wahine Indigenous Rugby league.
Cool the Kurakaupapa teaching there tamariki about the Maori marama Callander and time to collect Kai
Ka kite Ano.
https://youtu.be/qQfetkoGrpU
Kia Ora Newshub.
New technologies bowel cancer diegnosed with a mask it's the Ion age great new invention.
That's a excellent take of the hundreds of Sharks around the Great Barrier Islands. Sharks are a important part of Tangaroa environment and need to be protected and preserved.
Tyson was lucky to servive when his whare burnt down in the middle of winter.
The slide look cool A penguin but it slides the tamariki out to fast causeing injuries one would think they would test it before letting the public tamariki use it.???
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
Watties should not have made fun of Te reo Maori it show how racist there management is.
The old saying is don't go to war unless you are going to win Camp Kawarau.
That's is cool getting the whanau and comunity to fund rising for a young Wahine treatment of a rear form of cancer.
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora Newshub.
I think thats a great move to ban exports of whitebait it will be awesome that in 30 years time everyone comes to Aotearoa to see our presteen wildlife and environment.
The Moana getting hot That's not good it doesn't take much temperatures to rise for life to get extremely difficult.
Bioluminesent sea creatures making Tangaroa look beautiful cool.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
Taramaki whanui That's the way of the future building sestanable whare beautiful whare to.
That's sad a Tangaroa taonga passing and being washed up in Te Taitokerau.
Cool Te wharepora traditionally Maori weaving in flaxmere Ka pai E hoa.
Those 2 roopu are both from home I have links to both and they are quite awesome Wakarma.
Ka kite Ano