Open mike 08/10/2022

77 comments on “Open mike 08/10/2022 ”

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1. bwaghorn 1

   8 October 2022 at 7:00 am

   https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/129996098/the-covid-cloud-and-the-silver-lining-was-change-possible

   Pandemic as a portal?

   Re imagineing money?

   A hefty read for your breakfast.
2. bwaghorn 2

   8 October 2022 at 7:09 am

   https://i.stuff.co.nz/opinion/130102321/max-rashbrooke-sacrificing-50000-workers-on-the-altar-of-inflation-is-madness

   Max Rashbrooke ripping into the arsholes that think we need to chuck 50.000 people on the scrap heap so rich people get to keep spending?

   Go support stuff by the way ,they are doing tremendous work
   • pat 2.1

     8 October 2022 at 7:47 am

     Rashbrooke touches on the solution (or at least the best available chance) when he mentions taxation….our domestic inflation can be controlled by taxing that which we want more of less and vice versa, especially if it is progressive.

     Until we openly recognise that 'work' (output) is what supports an economy we will continue to fail…..and speculation isnt 'work' as much as those engaged in it will claim otherwise….make work rewarding (again)
     • mikesh 2.1.1

       8 October 2022 at 9:32 am

       “.and speculation isnt 'work' as much as those engaged in it will claim otherwise”

       I don't think anyone is claiming that. There are some, mostly supporters of capital gains taxes, who claim that gains from speculation constitute "income". However those gains are offset by losses on the part of buyers, so don't affect the money supply.
       • pat 2.1.1.1

         8 October 2022 at 9:35 am

         Define 'money'…they certainly impact the supply of credit as we have witnessed.
         • mikesh 2.1.1.1.1

           8 October 2022 at 9:48 am

           So it is excessive bank lending that is the problem, not the speculation. All I can say is: "so what else is new"
           • bwaghorn 2.1.1.1.1.1

             8 October 2022 at 9:56 am

             Finally, some else who think it's the banks that cause housing inflation. it's always sheeted home to the market or the buyers.
             • arkie …

               8 October 2022 at 10:03 am

               Without a market or buyers speculating how would a bank cause housing price inflation?

               They all play a role.

               Everyone involved is seeking to maximise their return and as pat intimated, the whole process provides very little benefit to the rest of us.
               • bwaghorn …

                 8 October 2022 at 10:13 am

                 Na ,you go get a mortgage the bank tells you how much you can go to on a given property, if they were limited to lending at no more than inflation then house prices couldn't rocket out of control and investors would need to be in it for long term rental profits instead of going for massive capital gain.

                 Houses generally double in price every 10 years, its ridiculous
                 • Cricklewood …

                   8 October 2022 at 12:03 pm

                   It's also what helped screw us with dairy, banks happily lending way to much for conversions etc valuing farms based on very high prices for milk solids and outputs based on heaps of fert, irrigation and supplemental feed… the bank doesnt care the bigger the mortgage the more interest paid amd the better their balance sheet.

                   Dangerously close to irresponsible lending if you ask me…
               • mikesh …

                 8 October 2022 at 3:47 pm

                 TOP is suggesting a 100% loan to value ratio for rental purposes. This would mean that an intending landlord would not be able to enter the market unless he already owned an available freehold property, or had sufficient funds to be able to purchase one without borrowing. I think he has plagiarized one or two of my earlier comments.
           • Patricia Bremner 2.1.1.1.1.2

             8 October 2022 at 1:48 pm

             Mikkesh.Flippant and fact free.

             Banks and finance companies loan to those with assets and perpetuate a bad system. Greedy asset holders are the problem…they seek out the loans to add to their already large asset bases and inflate asset values.

             A few who have over reached are being impacted by the current credit squeeze and interest rises and revision of values against other commodities.

             Banks and Finance Companies are complicit, but not the whole problem, but are the conduit for Asset Owner's GREED.
             • mikesh …

               8 October 2022 at 4:09 pm

               Patricia

               The process you refer to cannot happen unless finance is available for your so called "greedy asset holders" to access.

               The process is a circular one. The more the banks lend against property the more prices rise, and the more interest the banks earn. And the more prices rise the more money the banks can lend. To put a stop to the process we need to curtail bank lending. We can't blame "greedy asset holders" for taking advantage of the situation as it exists.

               Alternatively we could try to discourage them by making property investment less attractive, e.g. by taxing property ownership.
     • Nic the NZer 2.1.2

       8 October 2022 at 10:07 am

       Monetarism: Your soaking in it.

       Shrinking demand via taxation has most of the same problems as shrinking demand via monetary policy. NZs price hikes are due to supply side factors, coming from overseas or are otherwise related to market structure.

       It's possible to shrink the demand side down to match the supply side while that's going on, but its pretty socially destructive. It also damages your economic resilience and productivity for once supply side inflationary pressures abate.

       If domestic inflation was coming from the demand side the understanding would be different.
       • pat 2.1.2.1

         9 October 2022 at 1:07 am

         "Shrinking demand via taxation has most of the same problems as shrinking demand via monetary policy."

         And there is your mistake….it depends upon the target of the taxation.

         What is fuelling the RBNZ fear of a price/wage spiral?…the pressures exerted by overpriced assets (property) on both labour and inputs.

         It is not the working poor that are continuing to support the higher prices in NZ…as Rashbrooke notes "If there genuinely is excess cash, it sits in the hands of the well-off. But current policies don’t target them. "
   • Bearded Git 2.2

     8 October 2022 at 8:01 am

     The Reserve Bank has to take into account unemployment as well as inflation as part of its remit.

     Rashbrooke's solutions are a bit waffly for me, though he is right about raising interest rates being a blunt tool and in terms of higher pay for workers being seen as a good thing rather than being seen as a cost to business.
     • bwaghorn 2.2.1

       8 October 2022 at 8:22 am

       So you think we should raise the unemployment rate to curb inflation?
       • Bearded Git 2.2.1.1

         8 October 2022 at 9:01 am

         No. The RB remit has to take into account rising unemployment/the level of employment. If unemployment is judged to be rising too quickly interest rate rises would have to be smaller or even reversed.
         • Incognito 2.2.1.1.1

           8 October 2022 at 9:52 am

           The RBNZ should talk to INZ so that that we can open the borders asap and flood the labour markets with poorly checked cheap labour from who-cares. Oh wait, that sounds remarkably similar to National’s second bullet point on their PowerPoint slide that they call Plan for Aotearoa 2023-2024 with the footnote saying We are better managers of the egonomy.
           • Shanreagh 2.2.1.1.1.1

             8 October 2022 at 5:48 pm

             Very clever Incognito especially the 'egonomy'.
   • Nic the NZer 2.3

     8 October 2022 at 9:54 am

     That's an excellent link.

     The better understood, how these policies are supposed to work, are the easier to point out the assumptions involved (such as the assumption, not recorded in the data, that median NZ wages are too high and driving inflation).
     • bwaghorn 2.3.1

       8 October 2022 at 10:01 am

       I thought Mr Rashbrooke would be a good fit for the TOP
       • Nic the NZer 2.3.1.1

         8 October 2022 at 10:14 am

         Is that the same TOP under which Gareth Morgan proposed taking 1/3 of beneficiaries income and redistributing it to everybody else as a bonus (called UBI sans welfare). Mr Rashbrooke seems more socially responsible than that, to me.
       • Incognito 2.3.1.2

         8 October 2022 at 10:41 am

         I think that he's absolutely fine where he is and continue his excellent work outside of Parliament and most certainly not sell his soul to some political cult party.
         • bwaghorn 2.3.1.2.1

           8 October 2022 at 10:53 am

           Are they all cults or just top? They come across as more progressive than any other and not blinded by ideology like the rest. although to be honest I haven't given them much attention of late.
           • Incognito 2.3.1.2.1.1

             8 October 2022 at 11:00 am

             Wasn’t thinking of any party in particular.
3. Jenny are we there yet 3

   8 October 2022 at 8:10 am

   From the Kremlin mouthpiece RT

   30 Sep, 2021 14:53

   Russia puts Bellingcat partner Dobrokhotov on wanted list: Journalist is accused of illegally crossing state border into Ukraine

   The Russian authorities have put Roman Dobrokhotov, the founder of online publication The Insider, on the country’s wanted list, after he fled the country by allegedly illegally crossing the border to Ukraine’s Lugansk region…..

   ….Dobrokhotov was placed on a wanted list after apparently fleeing Russia by crossing the border to Ukraine’s Lugansk region. At the same time, the police raided his parents’ home, and brought his wife in for questioning.

   Following the charges, he announced that he had “had every right to leave the territory of Russia,” despite his passport being seized, calling the criminal case a means of pressuring his relatives.

   https://www.rt.com/russia/536262-russia-puts-dobrokhotov-wanted-list/

   How about that? Last week, 'The Russian authorities' didn't consider the territory of Lugansk, to be part of Russia. This week Putin claimed Lugansk is part of Russia.

   Will the Russian authorities be dropping the charges of illegally crossing into a foreign country brought against Russian journalist Roman Dobrokhotov?

   Somehow, I don't think so.
   • mikesh 3.1

     8 October 2022 at 9:41 am

     I don't watch RT, but I suspect that crossing an imaginary border is not the real reason he has been placed on a wanted list.
     • Jenny are we there yet 3.1.1

       8 October 2022 at 10:20 am

       In my opinion Mikesh, Roman Dobrokhotov is one of the few people to have crossed the Ukrainian border legally in recent times.

       Guilty of crossing this border illegally, 200,000 Russian troops who illegally crossed this border on February 24, 2022.

       We will see how ‘imaginary’ this border is Mikesh, when they are forcibly pushed back over it.
       • mikesh 3.1.1.1

         8 October 2022 at 4:25 pm

         As the song says;

         Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be. The future's not ours to see. Que sera, sera.
         • Jenny are we there yet 3.1.1.1.1

           9 October 2022 at 5:14 am

           I can recall that even as a child I remember feeling the saying and song that people have no control over their fate was terribly depressing and fatalistic.
           The opposite is true.
           Ukraine's victory is not fated. It is hard won.

           He tangata, He tangata, He Tangata.

           https://commons.com.ua/en/yak-inozemni-livi-dopomagayut-ukrayini-u-vijni/?

           The future is ours to win.
           • mikesh 3.1.1.1.1.1

             9 October 2022 at 8:01 am

             It is hard won.

             Sure. With American weapons, which the Russians seem unable to match. I think the latter will eventually have to resort to their own nuclear weapons in order to defend themselves.
             • Jenny are we there yet …

               9 October 2022 at 9:29 am

               '

               "….With American weapons, which the Russians seem unable to match." Mikesh

               It is not just the weapons that Russians seem unable to match.

               The willingness to fight and die in Putin’s war, is also something that the Russians are unable to match.

               And as for the American weapons. The people of Ukraine would fight the Russians with sticks and stones if they had to.

               "The arc of history is long but it bends towards justice" Martin Luther King

               All the American weapons have done is shortened the arc of history.
             • Jenny are we there yet …

               9 October 2022 at 11:46 am

               '

               "….I think the latter will eventually have to resort to their own nuclear weapons in order to defend themselves." Mikesh

               This war is not Russia defending 'themselves', Mikesh.
               Invading and forcibly occupying territory of a neighbouring sovereign country is not defence.

               Mikesh calling for Russia to use nuclear weapons to prevail in this aggression. Is to call for genocide.

               Nuclear weapons are the ultimate weapon of genocide. Killing far more people in less time than any other previous invented method. No need for messy cattle cars or the construction of complex networks of death camps and crematoria.

               Committing and calling for genocide is the hallmark of fascists.

               This is what the Ukrainian people of the Donbas think of people like you and your dirty ilk.

               https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmKygmkqSA&t=2s
     • aj 3.1.2

       8 October 2022 at 12:58 pm

       Its not possible to watch RT. In the interest of monopoly propaganda from the West, many alternative sources have been banned, not only from TV but also YouTube and Twitter.
       • Jenny are we there yet 3.1.2.1

         8 October 2022 at 10:05 pm

         Just google RT and you can watch RT content till your eyes bleed.
       • joe90 3.1.2.2

         8 October 2022 at 10:08 pm

         RT is streaming live on it's own platform. Right now they're crying about a bridge.
         • Jenny are we there yet 3.1.2.2.1

           9 October 2022 at 4:46 am

           As Ukraine advances into Kherson threaten to close the land bridge to Crimea, and with the sea bridge gone. Crimea is about to become physically cut off from Russia.

           I suspect many of the inhabitants of Crimea will be secretly renewing their Ukrainian passports.
4. PsyclingLeft.Always 4

   8 October 2022 at 9:15 am

   RNZ : Guyon Espiner

   For years, Lotto pitched certain stores as "lucky". They weren't. In fact, the chances of becoming a problem gambler far outweigh the chances of winning a big Powerball prize.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/474779/how-nzers-bought-the-lotto-dream

   Government under pressure to change law as 9-year-olds buy Lotto tickets

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/474574/government-under-pressure-to-change-law-as-9-year-olds-buy-lotto-tickets

   And this spin from the ODT? As if lotto needs any free feelgood stories?

   The secret life of New Zealand's kindest Lotto winner

   https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/secret-life-new-zealands-kindest-lotto-winner
5. John Irving 5

   8 October 2022 at 10:35 am

   King Charles III Conflicted Head of The Commonweath

   Why hasn’t Jacinda, Anthony and Justine (along with the other PMs of 13 Kingly states) stood up to Lizz Truss and insisted that the Head of the Commonwealth, that includes NZ, Australia, and Canada along with 54 other independent states, should be allowed to represent our collective views at COP27. Apparently, Liz’s decision was made is because she has appointed a Climate Denier Jacob Rees-Mogg as her UK Environmental Minister, and she doesn’t want to be embarrassed by her King’s views on the world stage. On the other hand, Global Warning is a serious international issue, Charles III is our King and head of the Commonwealth and apparently well qualified to represent smaller states that are anxious about the impacts of climate change. Moreover in 1961 our former Queen set a precedent for independent action by ignoring Thatcher’s “advice” not a to attend the Commonwealth conference on Apartheid, danced with the PM of Ghana and thereby “saved” the Commonwealth from breaking up. The question we might ask ourselves, if Liz has so much power over our present head of state why do we bother keeping him on?
6. Janet 6

   8 October 2022 at 11:05 am

   No comments have been facilitated for this article in this morning’s NZ Herald.

   Wondering what Kiwi reaction is.

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/long-standing-use-of-russian-fishing-crews-on-new-zealand-flagged-boats-raises-questions-as-war-rages-in-ukraine/7ZH2R567XTS7JACL66ALSNHAJ4/

   “ the use of Crimean crews amounted to "indirect sponsorship of Russia's war crimes".

   “there are doubts over the towns and addresses on their official documentation, which places them as being from the Russian Federation and not other contested regions currently, or historically, fought over.”

   Crimea is an annexed Ukrainian state so if they were Crimean born not Russian, no problem.

   “Sources claim the crews are "aggressively pro-war and pro-Putin", it's alleged, broadcasting Russian "propaganda" on the fishing boats and allegedly "mandated" to hang Putin's portrait in the galley and wardroom”.

   This activity needs banning on a NZ registered boat until Russia stops its aggression in the Ukraine.
   • Graeme 6.1

     8 October 2022 at 11:20 am

     Let's see how many get on the plane to go home when their contract ends.

     They'd all be liable for conscription so would be quite pleased to be tucked away down south for the duration. And is Uncle Vlad's portrait hanging the right way up for here or up north.
   • weston 6.2

     8 October 2022 at 12:39 pm

     Russians on fishing boats etc

     Yes Janet important too to continue keeping Russian cats out of cat shows also , we shouldnt let our high standards slip by golly !!
     • weka 6.2.1

       8 October 2022 at 1:44 pm

       Dude, your text box.
       • Drowsy M. KramTak, comrade, never liked Russian fudge as much as the chocolate kind – hope sanctions kick in before the school gala. Rooting for the underdog of the moment. 6.2.1.1

         8 October 2022 at 1:52 pm

         Sorry weka, I copied the text of my comment before deleting it, and then tried to paste the copied text into a new comment – must have pasted in the wrong place.
         • weka 6.2.1.1.1

           8 October 2022 at 1:53 pm

           you’ve just done it again.
   • mikesh 6.3

     8 October 2022 at 4:37 pm

     I'm sure Russia would be more than happy to talk peace with the Ukrainian government. However the latter seems more interested in saving face rather than agreeing to peace talks. In any case I'm pretty sure Mr Biden would not allow it.
   • Stuart Munro 6.4

     8 October 2022 at 4:41 pm

     Should've been banned decades ago on legal grounds – they pay illegally low wages – which is the whole point.

     Contemporary NZ politicians are however utterly corrupt. "Slave & trafficked workers? Have as many as you like!" they say. As long as they're off camera, that is.
   • mikesh 6.5

     9 October 2022 at 9:08 am

     Crimea is an annexed Ukrainian state so if they were Crimean born not Russian, no problem.

     The majority of Crimea's citizenry are ethnic Russians. From 1954 to the end of the soviet era Crimea was administered from Ukraine, but that did not imply that it "belonged" to Ukraine. I think it was a separate oblast within the soviet system and doubt whether Russia acquiesced in a transfer of ownership – though of course I could be wrong. After the soviet collapse Yeltsin may have handed it over, though I doubt whether Putin would have agreed to a handover had he been in power at the time.

     In 2014 a referendum indicated that a majority of its citizens did not want to be part of Ukraine. It has been suggested that the referendum was phony, but this has never been proved, and foreign observers present in Crimea at the time seemed to think that the result was kosher. This was the basis for Russia's annexation, though the real reason was that ownership of the territory was important for Russia’s defense.
7. Jenny are we there yet 7

   8 October 2022 at 11:49 am

   Another hurdle to overcome for life to emerge has been discovered.

   Waterfalls.

   Some worlds like Saturn's 6th moon Enceladus, may be covered in deep oceans. But without waterfalls, (and land), the emergence of life may not be possible.

   …..amino peptides can spontaneously generate in droplets of water during the quick reactions that happen when water meets the atmosphere, such as when a waterfall crashes down to a rock and the spray is lifted into the air…

   ….Basically, for life to form, it needs water, but also the loss of some water.

   Cooks explained this “water paradox,” to VICE. “The water paradox is the contradiction between (i) the very considerable evidence that the chemical reactions leading to life occurred in the prebiotic ocean and (ii) the thermodynamic constraint against exactly these (water loss) reactions occurring in water….

   ….tiny droplets flying through the air or sliding down rocks, interacting with the air and forming quick chemical reactions. “The rates of reactions in droplets are anywhere from a hundred to a million times faster than the same chemicals reacting in bulk solution,” said Cooks.

   This speedy chemical reactions do not require a catalyst to begin the reaction, which made the evolution of life on Earth possible. The team used “droplet fusion” experiments to reconstruct the possible formation of peptides, that simulate how water droplets collide in the air.

   https://www.popsci.com/science/water-peptide-life-earth/?

   Add this to the growing mountain of evidence already collected, points toward the conclusion that except for this small corner, the universe is as inanimate as it is vast.

   So look after it.
8. Ad 8

   8 October 2022 at 11:58 am

   2 minutes to votes close
9. Mat Simpson 9

   8 October 2022 at 12:23 pm

   " Auckland Action Against Poverty is one of those groups with on-the-ground experience, and co-chair Agnes Magele said the report did not give the full picture.

   " She said the government's decisions and actions were partly to blame for keeping people locked in poverty "

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/476277/child-poverty-report-stokes-demands-for-stronger-government-action
10. joe90 10

    8 October 2022 at 1:44 pm

    https://twitter.com/NobelPrize/status/1578309539870318603

    Previously on TS

    The Chekist thug has memory-holed his predecessors' atrocities.

    Liquidation of the International Memorial

    12/28/2021

    On December 28, 2021, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation decided to liquidate the International Memorial.

    The formal reason stated in the suit of the General Prosecutor's Office is the absence of the label “foreign agent” on some materials. During the hearing, the inconsistency of these claims was clearly demonstrated.

    But today, the court finally named not a formal reason, but the real reason for the liquidation of the International Memorial: the General Prosecutor's Office claims that we are misinterpreting Soviet history, “creating a false image of the USSR as a terrorist state,” “lashing out criticism at the state authorities”. And the state, according to our opponents, is beyond criticism.

    The decision of the Supreme Court once again confirmed that the history of political terror organized and directed by the state authorities remains for Russia not an academic topic of interest only to specialists, but an acute problem of our time. Our country needs an honest and conscientious reflection on the Soviet past; this is the guarantee of her future. It is ridiculous to believe that the judicial liquidation of International Memorial will remove this issue from the agenda. The entire Russian society needs to remember the tragedies of the past. And not only Russian: the memory of state terror unites all the former Soviet republics.

    Of course, we will challenge the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation in all ways available to us. And we will find legitimate ways to continue our work. A memorial is not an organization, it is not even a social movement. The memorial is the need of the citizens of Russia for the truth about its tragic past, about the fate of many millions of people. And no one will be able to "eliminate" this need.

    google translation

    https://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-29-12-2021/#comment-1847006
    • joe90 10.1

      8 October 2022 at 2:03 pm

      Today is Poot's 70th. Awarding prizes to a human rights group that he shut down, a Ukrainian rights group documenting his war crimes and a Belarusian rights activist imprisoned by his bestie Lukashenko.

      Genius.
      • Jenny are we there yet 10.1.1

        8 October 2022 at 7:40 pm

        In his 70th year, to demonstrate fealty to the Pharaoh two great pyramids were erected in his honour.

        https://inshorts.com/en/news/putin-gifted-pyramids-of-melons-watermelons-by-tajikistan-president-on-his-birthday-1665209752186

        Oh guys, you shouldn’t have.

        I mean really. You shouldn’t have.
    • mikesh 10.2

      9 October 2022 at 8:30 am

      I don't see why the protesters should be awarded the peace prize when they have not succeeded in bringing about an actual peace in Ukraine. The award in this case seems to be just a gimmick to further demonize Russia. Protesters against the Vietnam war were not awarded the peace prize; but of course in that conflict it was the USA and its supporters that were being protested against.
11. Drowsy M. Kram 11

    8 October 2022 at 1:56 pm

    Phew, back to ‘normal’
12. tsmithfield 12

    8 October 2022 at 5:52 pm

    BREAKING NEWS

    A defining moment in the Ukraine war.

    The Kerch bridge has been taken down. Putin will be pissed. For those who don't know, the Kerch bridge is a key component of the logistics network for getting supplies to the army from Russia and through Crimea.
    • Stuart Munro 12.1

      8 October 2022 at 6:12 pm

      So… the Crimean pocket is being closed.

      Yet another demonstration of the gifted strategic response of Ukraine to Russian terrorism.
      • Stuart Munro 12.1.1

        8 October 2022 at 6:27 pm

        More details on the attack Ukraine Strikes Train on Crimean Bridge! – YouTube
        • tsmithfield 12.1.1.1

          8 October 2022 at 6:40 pm

          The rail bridge looks unusable due distortion of the metal and likely weakening of reinforcing steel in the rail bridge concrete. Also, I imagine the extreme heat would weld the train wheels to the tracks. So, clearing the train off the bridge is not going to be easy.
          • Stuart Munro 12.1.1.1.1

            8 October 2022 at 6:55 pm

            I imagine a lot of foreign folk in Kherson, Crimea and Zaporizhzhia are thinking pretty hard about their lines of retreat.
            • tsmithfield 12.1.1.1.1.1

              8 October 2022 at 7:19 pm

              I am expecting the expected offensive towards Melitopol to start straight away now. It would be a great move to have the Russians fighting on three fronts while their logistics are stuffed.
              • tsmithfield …

                8 October 2022 at 7:43 pm

                According to the Russians it was a truck bomb, which makes sense.
13. tsmithfield 13

    8 October 2022 at 8:07 pm

    A video of the blast. Quite clearly a truck exploding.

    https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1578634672753762306
    • weka 13.1

      8 October 2022 at 8:16 pm

      I fixed the link. If you link to the person's twitter account, the tweet gets lost in the embed as new tweets are posted. Instead, click on the date/time stamp of the tweet you are referring to, then copy and paste the URL.
      • tsmithfield 13.1.1

        8 October 2022 at 8:35 pm

        Thanks for that.
    • Stuart Munro 13.2

      8 October 2022 at 8:22 pm

      The span has collapsed. Crimean Bridge Collapses! – YouTube
      • joe90 13.2.1

        8 October 2022 at 8:45 pm

        Looking a little worse for wear.

        https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1578639387843526656
      • tsmithfield 13.2.2

        8 October 2022 at 8:49 pm

        From a supply point of view, the key thing will be how badly the rail bridge is damaged. Obviously the train will need to be cleared off. But it might not simply roll off because the heat will have distorted the metal of the rails and the wheels, and may have even welded the rails to some of the wheels if the fire was hot enough. Then, likely rails will need to be replaced.

        So, in the best case, I would say the rail bridge will be out of action for at least a week. But if the heat has damaged the integrity of the bridge itself, then it could be out a lot longer.
        • Stuart Munro 13.2.2.1

          8 October 2022 at 9:04 pm

          That bridge also pipes water and electricity to Crimea – albeit not enough. As Kherson falls, those utilities are likely to be in short supply.

          The big engineers in the region are Ukraine, not Russia. They built both the Moskva and the Admiral Kuznetsov. A massive floating crane can likely fix the rail part rapidly (about a month) if Russia still have one. I think they're going to have a few too many problems however.
          • tsmithfield 13.2.2.1.1

            8 October 2022 at 9:25 pm

            A month should be long enough. If the Ukrainians start the third front towards Melitopol the stress on the remaining Russian logistics could be too much.

            The Ukrainians are putting major stress on the Russian logistics in the north at the moment as well. So, I think this is definitely a major turning point in the war.
    • weka 13.3

      8 October 2022 at 8:44 pm

      it's odd it's being reported as a collapse rather than that someone blew it up. Is it too soon to know what happened officially?
      • tsmithfield 13.3.1

        8 October 2022 at 9:22 pm

        If you look at that link you fixed for me, it looks very much like a truck exploding. That is what the Russians are saying. Though, other reports I have seen, have pointed out that freeze-frames show some sort of boat coming into view. I know the US has given the Ukrainians some drone boats. So, it isn't absolutely clear. But it is definitely a large explosion.
      • tsmithfield 13.3.2

        8 October 2022 at 9:48 pm

        Step through this video. You will notice some sort of boat goes under the bridge just at the time of the explosion.

        I am thinking one of the drone boats the US have provided.
        • joe90 13.3.2.1

          8 October 2022 at 10:46 pm

          Likely not the truck.

          https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1578617204316442625
14. joe90 14

    8 October 2022 at 10:16 pm

    On the futility and cost of Poots' special military operation.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1578535591762747392

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1578535556061233152.html

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