Open mike 08/11/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, November 8th, 2022 - 90 comments
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90 comments on “Open mike 08/11/2022 ”

  1. Roy Cartland 1

    Cynical, malevolent and bandwagon-ing bunch maybe, but National is right to join the chorus of questioning bank profits. Now a majority of the house is onto this. Stopped clock etc.

    National urges govt to probe monetary policy over banks' huge profits https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/478252/national-urges-govt-to-probe-monetary-policy-over-banks-huge-profits

    • Adrian Thornton 1.1

      And Labours response as usual is tepid…why?, because like National, they are free market fundamentalists, both whom believe the markets and commodification can fix every problem..even in the face of the World burning, caused by free markets and unfettered commodification….not a lot of difference between these guys and ISIS as far as I am concerned..both extremist nutters who would kill us all to prove their ideology is right.

    • Molly 1.2

      Grant Robertson meets with the major banks regularly, to discuss their current positions and forecasts.

      He most likely will have some insights.

      • Nic the NZer 1.2.1

        Bank profits are positively correlated with the OCR. Thats going to become a bit of a conundrum at some point if much inflation policy is monetary policy.

        • Molly 1.2.1.1

          I was being a bit cynical. I know someone working at one of the big Australian banks, who attends these meetings.

          From the little I know. Grant Robertson appears to be asking for direction on monetary policy from them. If true, he's obviously following it, hence the huge profits.

          • Nic the NZer 1.2.1.1.1

            What your describing sounds like complete industry capture. Frankly one hopes this is not true.

            The main issue being the links between monetary policy and bank profits are much more clear and better established than the links between monetary policy and inflation control. In fact if a lot of the price revisions are coming from overseas then the impact of monetary policy may be (quite obviously) none. Monetary policy does impact interest rates accruing to savers however so relying on it is making a wide range of inequality pressures worse.

            The other thing is Robertson appears to be saying we don't want to use an increase in unemployment to target inflation. But this is part of how monetary policy supposedly works, if it works. So he's saying the RBNZ can use their policy tool just as long as it doesn't actually work the way its supposed to work. Orr must be very confused about what he is supposed to do under his monetary policy targets agreement (annually re-agreed) with Robertson. Probably he is supposed to do, nothing which reflects badly on Robertson or the government.

            • Molly 1.2.1.1.1.1

              "What your describing sounds like complete industry capture. Frankly one hopes this is not true."

              I hope not as well.

              Do our Minister's have publicly published schedules?

            • Sacha 1.2.1.1.1.2

              I read somewhere that Robertson was meeting weekly with banks during the Covid response, though I have no links to back that up with.

          • Sacha 1.2.1.1.2

            'Where should govt put QE funding to get us through Covid?'

            Just hand it to us and we will inflate the housing casino further and pad our profits.

            Sure thing. How much do you want?

            • Molly 1.2.1.1.2.1

              The little information I do have from the conversation, was that discussions about inflationary housing costs and lending were taking place regularly, so you might not be too far off the mark. However, I'm trying to not overstate the unknown.

              (I hesitated about posting hearsay without verification, but then considered that someone reading might be interested enough to do an OIA request that I don't currently have time to do.)

              • Nic the NZer

                QE isn't really facilitating any additional ability to lend. The banks always have as much flexibility to lend without ever running into an interbank payment constraint in terms of reserves. This is because the RBNZ will lend what ever volume of reserves needed at the OCR as part of monetary policy anyway.

                The actual constraints against lending are things like LVR ratios, or debt to income ratios or how many years the bank agrees as a repayment term. But as long as the borrower can repay and will pay interest above the OCR then the bank can make that loan profitably.

                QE is just an expedient way of operating relatively typical monetary policy while having the central bank lend to the govt. Commercial banks and other large scale financials are involved in primary lending and in return get a small return as the RBNZ will usually buy the bonds back again for marginally more again on the secondary market. Other than this small cut however the RBNZ may as well be lending directly to the government.

    • Peter 1.3

      Banks, supermarket monopolies, fuel companies, Fletchers, etc, etc.

      There's an election next year, polls are being done all the time.

      Is the National Party going to make big noises about massive profits being terrible, implying everything will be different after they get in? Of course.

      And after they and ACT are elected next year will everything in regards to massive profits be different and better, to the advantage of most? Of course not. It's all bluster, all piss and wind.

      • alwyn 1.4.1

        Did you listen to the Green's "Finance Spokesman" on Morning Report this morning? It was Julie Anne Genter. She was a total joke and clearly knew absolutely nothing about the topic.

        If a party doesn't have anyone who knows the topic under consideration they shouldn't even try and put up a representative. It merely makes them a laughing stock.

        • Nic the NZer 1.4.1.1

          I didn't hear what she said but she might just be too far ahead of her time. It's happened before with the Greens of course, Russell Norman raised the fact that the reserve bank could just use QE to directly fund the government back in 2012.

          https://www.odt.co.nz/business/printing-more-money-answer

          It took a further 8 years and a pandemic but as it turned out, well yes, the government can just pay for everybody's wages if it thinks that's a good idea. Somehow for the interim period 2012-2020 the countries finances were constantly narrated as we can't afford this, we can't afford that, we are borderline bankrupt and then it just happened we weren't.

          Who knew? Turns out it was Russell Norman.

          • Incognito 1.4.1.1.1

            A challenge to orthodoxy and BAU is often met with accusations of ignorance and usually such accusations lack substance and argument coming from fearful empty hollow vessels yearning for yesteryear.

        • KJT 1.4.1.2

          You mean, you!, didn't understand what Julie Ann Genter, was saying.

          • alwyn 1.4.1.2.1

            Why don't you try and see if you can understand her, or whether you think she knows anything at all about what she was saying.

            The interview is here

            https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018865925/tax-excessive-gains-by-mega-banks-greens

          • Poission 1.4.1.2.2

            The IMF this week said that windfall taxes,create uncertainty and decrease investment,one of the messages that Robertson would have received,as was the emphasis on stability,and debt management.

            Genter is well out of her depth here,and lettuce economics carries little weight in a high risk economy like NZ,where to attract investment ( read fund debt) we have to offer higher interest rates, then other G10 economies.

            • Sacha 1.4.1.2.2.1

              Why is our currency so heavily traded internationally?

              • Poission

                It pays higher interest rates then any G10 currency,and pairs (usd.nzd) with a hedge (nzd aud) on the short.

                https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fg_Q5dYWYAAFOI5?format=png&name=small

              • KJT

                Because our reserve Bank keeps our interest rates artificially high.. In vain attempts to target inflation.

                Attracting currency flows.

                KJT. Random musings on all sorts of things.: Search results for Interest rates (kjt-kt.blogspot.com)

                • Poission

                  NZ is a price taker in attracting debt,due to the risks with being a commodity currency,a large current account deficit,and trade imbalance increasing debt by local and central government (based on policies of low interest rates).

                  Total government borrowings are now 219,232 m vs a budget forecast of 209,291m in increase in debt of 9914000000 $ in 3 months.The government needs to get its spending under control,as inflation is the only game in town.

                  • Nic the NZer

                    Are you sure NZ can be both a price (interest rate) taker and have a policy of low interest rates.

                    • Poission

                      We do not have a policy of low interest rates as that is essentially determined by markets,which look at the ability to pay in the future.With high overseas debt loading,we also have a forex risk,as flows are not say like Australia with both commodity and investment inflows (from australian offshore investments) sustaining a current account surplus.This reduces the demand on borrowing.

                      With a lower inflation rate,it is the real rate of return on the interest bearing bond eg central bank rate less inflation.

                    • Nic the NZer

                      So central and local government have not been increasing debt "based on policies of low interest rates"?

                    • Poission

                      The policies were structured during a period of low interest rates,now with cost increases,they are demand drivers for inflation.As surpluses do not exist,they are driven by debt to pay borrowing,which increases inflation infintitum.

                    • Nic the NZer

                      Seems like government is a bit stuffed then. You've pointed out a $10 billion treasury forecasting error 3-months out and the 'correct' financing depends on getting both the inflation and interest rate forecasts right about 2-5 years out.

                      Rather than changing the name of New Zealand and going through that whole palaver do you think we should just cut to the chase and apply to be de-listed as a country immediately?

                  • KJT

                    The "highest interest rates in the Western world" are not "determined by "the markets", they are determined by our absurd and one eyed "reserve Bank act" setting rates artificially higher than the "markets", encouraging speculative flows. Plus extra profit taking by banks operating in NZ. "Some of the highest bank profits in the world".

                    Aussies are banking on bumper profits in NZ – Milford Asset

                    Bank profits to overseas banks are themselves a large factor in our negative current accounts. Compare bank profits to net dairy earnings.

            • KJT 1.4.1.2.2.2

              What hasn’t been commented on is that an increase in interest rates will also penalise every business and household in the country including everyone resident in Auckland and Christchurch who already have a mortgage and have no intention of buying or selling a home.

          • gsays 1.4.1.2.3

            TBF, Sam Stubbs was far more articulate, informed and passionate than Genter came across.

            Dann didn't interrupt Subbs as much as he did Genter.

  2. Adrian Thornton 2

    Funny that with all the talk in the media on dis and misinformation, that an actual story on some serious industrial sized dissemination of misinformation hasn't become a MSM story….I wonder why that is?

    Researchers Find Massive Anti-Russian ‘Bot Army’
    "An Australian university has unearthed millions of Tweets by fake accounts pushing disinformation on the Ukraine war, Peter Cronau reports. The sample size dwarfs other studies of covert propaganda about the war on social media."

    • Molly 2.1

      Thanks, Adrian – interesting article.

      Study link below if anyone wants to dive deeper:

      https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.07038.pdf

      • Adrian Thornton 2.1.1

        Thanks Molly,

        This part in the abstract was interesting….and quite telling…

        "By aggregating account groups we find significant information flows from bot-like accounts to non-bot accounts with behaviour differing between sides. Pro-Russian non-bot accounts are most influential overall, with information flows to a variety of other account groups. No significant outward flows exist from pro-Ukrainian non-bot accounts, with significant flows from pro-Ukrainian bot accounts into pro-Ukrainian non-bot accounts."

        • gsays 2.1.1.1

          This recent brouhaha about mis/disinformation has me a tad bemused.

          Often, the information would be more accurately described as ' This information doesn't suit my view/opinion/narrative.' or, 'I don't like this persons perspective on other things, they are probably lying'.

          If misinformation is such a problem then surely the government wouldn't employ practitioners of 'public affairs consultantcy', strategic communication experts or spin doctors …/sarc

  3. Sanctuary 3

    Goodness but it is clear no one at RNZ is returning Chris Trotter's calls these days.

    • Incognito 3.1

      ??

    • roy cartland 3.2

      ???

    • roblogic 3.3

      Because of this?

      More Than One Way To Skin A Cat. | The Daily Blog

      The newsrooms and current affairs production hubs of RNZ and TVNZ have become ideological monocultures. Senior executives, producers, journalists, technical staff and, seemingly, the entire workforce of the public broadcasters, subscribe to a single version of economic, political, social and cultural reality. A journalist wishing to put together a programme on the bitter divisions rending the women’s movement over transgender issues, for example, would not only be denied permission, she would be lucky to hold on to her job. The RNZ and TVNZ of today grow only a single crop. If you don’t like the taste of “Woke” – then you had better find an alternative menu of ideas.

      Perhaps it is this complete indifference to the traditions of free inquiry and frank debate that enlivened the public broadcasters of yesteryear that explains the new entity.

      At the summit of both RNZ and TVNZ sit people who despise the whole Reithian concept of broadcasting as a public service.

  4. Sanctuary 4

    There seems to be a bit of a left twitter storm about TV3's Jenna Lynch's relationship with the ACT chief of staff. But I heard Mari Dunlop giving Christopher Luxon a hard time on RNZ yet everyone remained silent on her relationship with Kiri Allan. Jessica Mutch-McKay famously shacked up with Jacinda's hipster bodyguard, and Katie Bradford's mum needs little introduction whilst the odious pairings over at the ZB troll farm hardly need further comment. And one can of course refer to the Jane Clifton/Trevor Mallard marriage for the boomers out there.

    Now, on the one hand you could argue this is unimportant – New Zealand is small country, we should rely on the professionalism of our journalists for impartiality and on Chinese walls to keep the pillow talk to a minimum. But I am not so sure. To me the uncomfortably cosy personal relationships between the MSM and members of the political class points to a wider issue in journalism – the excessively narrow, middle class, base most of them seem to be drawn from. The obsession with airfares and overseas holidays, an economic narrative invariably favourable to the asset owning classes, all buttressed by the underlying value assumptions of centrist liberalism (paywalled) are symptoms of the malaise of a disconnected class of journalists.

    What it all does IMHO is fuel public suspicion of the "MSM" and the "deep state" where the "paid for" media is often literally in bed with the "swamp" that needs draining.

    For what it is worth, I think that in these days of conspiracy theories the establishment media needs to be more vigilant of the public's generally dim view of its often excessively close relationships with it's subjects. On a dual hosted public broadcaster I thought it a mistake for Dunlop to be given the job of aggressively interviewing the LOTO, for example.

    At the very least MSM websites ought to carry personal disclosure statements about relationships that may affect public perceptions of their journalists. The journalists will resent it immensely, but I would say tough.

    • roy cartland 4.1

      everyone remained silent on her relationship with Kiri Allan

      Not quite true, I heard RNZ announce it just as Mani was becoming the Morning Report host. That's how I knew about it.

      But good points – you left out Brooke Sabin son of that odious man that exited or was exited from the Nat Party some years ago for… I forget now…

      • Anker 4.1.1

        Knew about Kiri Allen before but hard to know how she will manage her conflict of interest now she is interviewing.

        I think Jacinda's body guard situation less problematic.

        Katie Bradford I think has done an outstanding job of appearing not to be biased, but then again, we don't always agree with our mums. I never detected bias from Jane Clifton who also had a relationship with Murray McCully. that always intrigued me!

        I do think, particularly in an election year having Mani go hard out against Luxon isn't a good look, unless she is equally hard with Lab.

        Its tricky.

        • Stephen D 4.1.1.1

          You obviously missed Marni Dunlop giving the Prime Minister a hard time on Monday morning.

    • Corey Humm 4.2

      Fully agree.

      In a time of such deep distrust and disdain of media and journalism, media companies should go out of their way to hire people with no connections to the political class so they can't be accused of bias and quite frankly, nepotism.

      We shouldn't be in a situation where those who hold our leaders to account are dating, married or closely related to leaders or figures in political parties, without disclosures. We Also shouldn't be giving retired polis tv shows. Ugh

      You mentioned a great point about the upper middle classification of politics and journalism, the things these journalists cover are usually vapid upper middle class issues , the journalists have no concept of poverty, unions, minimum wage, state houses or the benefit system and it shows in their coverage.

      And since these are the issues they cover they are the issues governments think are important and politicians who belong almost exclusively to the same upper middle class with the same lack of understanding of ground level issues pass policy by and for the middle class.

      We desperately need diversity of class in our politics

      Our new public media should absolutely be as obsessed with diversity of class as it is with diversity of race gender and sexuality. It should be mandated.

      Tvnz political panels for instance should have random working class and beneficiaries giving their views on the panel on q and a not just rich journalists , former polis and CEOs.

      If we're going to return faith to journalism and politics we need to have journos and politicians from diverse backgrounds of class not just upper middle class opinions m

  5. dv 5

    Lets see

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/130403417/which-jobs-would-be-the-first-to-go-if-unemployment-rose

    OK lose jobs- lower tax take

    More unemployed thus higher govt expenditure.

    And that will reduce inflation HAH

    • Sanctuary 5.1

      Which jobs should go first? Hmmm, let's start with bank economists, then right wing business journalists perhaps then move on to highly paid PR staff in the AUckland mayor's office…

  6. Sacha 6

    Ooh, this will exercise some people here. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/putin-ally-yevgeny-prigozhin-admits-interfering-in-us-elections

    The powerful Russian businessman and a close Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin has admitted to interfering in US elections on the eve of a midterm vote in which Republicans will seek to take control of Congress and state-wide offices across the country.

    “Gentlemen, we interfered, we are interfering and we will interfere,” Prigozhin, who has previously been accused of influencing the outcome of elections across continents, said in a statement posted by his catering company, Concord.

    “Carefully, precisely, surgically and the way we do it, the way we can,” Prigozhin, 61, added.

    • Sanctuary 6.1

      Yevgeny Prigozhin is of course head of the Wagner group, increasingly an organisation that is a mercenary political army that operates as a rival to the regular Russian Army. I have read there are three armies fighting different and disconnected wars against the Ukraine – the regular Russian army, the mercenary Wagner group, and the LNR/DNR militia. In any event, Putin's distrust of his army means Prigozhin and his political army are rapidly assuming an importance analogous to Himmler and the SS as a parallel political army loyal only to it's leader. If you want to know where Prigozhin's Wagner forces are on the totem pole of Russian power right now, they currently engaged in near suicidal frontal assaults on the heavily fortified Ukrainian positions outside the city of Bakhmut, were it looks like freshly mobilised, untrained Russian troops are being used as cannon fodder first wave assaults for Wagner forces, and suffering horrendous losses.

    • Francesca 6.2

      Don't take it too hard Sacha, you're not the first to be totally suckered by a trolling Russian , you won't be the last

      I like the reference to kidneys and liver which you missed out.

    • MickeyBoyle 7.1

      Adrian Orr has utterly failed his remit and should not have been retained.

      • millsy 7.1.1

        Heaven forbid that we have record low unemployment and high wages.

        Im telling you right now, the price for low inflation will always be low wage growth and high unemployment. Every single time. Look at during the 1990's, inflation was at 1%, but wages never even moved. Also unemployment was rampant, and people were stuck on the same wage throughout the decade.

    • Anker 9.1

      Yes a good example of how our free speech laws work. It appears Plunket slandered Farrier, so good for him taking legal action.

      • Nic the NZer 9.1.1

        Isn't the problem that Plunket released court documents on Twitter, not that he said anything untrue himself.

        • Anker 9.1.1.1

          You might be right Nic. I haven't followed it much, but saw that Rachael Stewart tweeted that Sean should have done due diligence on the "court documents". Time will tell.

          Reading between the lines (just an opinion), sounds like Farrier got sucked into a web by a very cunning [deleted] and his mental health has suffered as a result, for which I have a lot of sympathy. I think it is possible Sean got played by the [deleted], which shows how dangerous and cunning these people can be.

          But the above is speculation on my behalf

    • weka 9.2

      that was an interesting hour's reading.

      Generally, can Family Protection Orders be used against people who aren't family?

      • Craig H 9.2.1

        Yes, but there has to be, or have been, a "close personal relationship".

        https://www.justice.govt.nz/family/family-violence/apply-for-a-protection-order/ has general information, and in the application form, it has this section:

        Who can apply for a Protection Order? Anyone who needs protection from someone who is violent, abusive or making threats can apply. You must have, or previously had, a close personal relationship with that person. It could be a partner, ex-partner, flatmate, carer or family/ whānau member. They don’t have to be living with you.

        The general page also provides the link to Restraining Orders for cases not covered by Protection Orders.

  7. Anker 10

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a

    Outstanding interview with Shane Reti on what he would do about the Health System.

    Not sure why he isn't leader. Watched this after reading Chris T article which is on TS feed.

    • Jimmy 10.1

      Yes Shane would be an excellent health minister and certainly a lot better than the current one.

      • alwyn 10.1.1

        Wouldn't almost anyone? I almost feel some (very) slight nostalgia for David Clark. He wasn't any more competent but at least he wasn't bitchy when being questioned.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 10.1.1.1

          Your nostalgia matches mine for Coleman – medical doctors should know better.

          Still, if there's a buck to be made from healthcare, trust Coleman to sniff it out.

      • KJT 10.1.2

        Don't have much awareness of recent history, do you.

        Reti will continue National's disastrous privatisation and de-funding of health, which has caused so much trouble in the last few years.

        • Jimmy 10.1.2.1

          In the 'last few years', lets say 5, most measurements have got a lot worse in health. Oh that's right, we don't measure anymore as targets are unhelpful!/

          • Incognito 10.1.2.1.1

            Is that right?

            Health System Indicators framework: Measuring how well the health and disability system serves New Zealanders

            https://reports.hqsc.govt.nz/HSI/_w_21ce52a1/#!/

              • Drowsy M. Kram

                Oh that's right, we don't measure anymore as targets are unhelpful! [Jiminy @10.1.2.1]

                Here's one measurement. [Jiminy @10.1.2.1.1.1]

                The rabid right often contradict themelves – alwyn @10.1.1 at least had the common sense to restrict his bitching to personal feelz.

              • Incognito

                Wait times and access to primary care are covered under Better primary health care, which you would have known if you’d actually opened and read the link I’d provided. And if you’d read the Introduction to the Health System Indicators framework, you’d have a better understanding of the “six Government priorities and 12 high-level indicators” and possibly even understood why setting and measuring targets as done in the past is essentially meaningless and doesn’t fix anything. As it stands, you’re only confirming your own bias and parroting simplistic Nat propaganda slogans.

          • millsy 10.1.2.1.2

            No, the targets were dumped as they were weighted too much in favour of middle class cancer patients, while the chronically sick poor were just left to rot.

    • millsy 10.2

      If Reti had his way, we would be paying as much to see the doctor as we do the dentist.

      Andrew Little is the first minister of health in decades that doesnt see health as a tradeable commidity.

  8. adam 11

    How much more dirty are the right going to get? With their au pair the Murdoc Press punching hard.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoiZ8LgIEow

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    The coalition government is delivering on its commitment to making principled decisions by getting rid of red tape that doesn’t make sense and allowing sick New Zealanders greater freedom and choice to purchase effective cold and flu medicines. A bill amending the Misuse of Drugs Act 1975 is being introduced, and changes to the Medicines ...
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    4 days ago
  • Government begins reset of welfare system
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    4 days ago
  • State of the Nation
    Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora, good morning, talofa, malo e lelei, bula vinaka, da jia hao, namaste, sat sri akal, assalamu alaikum. Thank you for coming to my first State of the Nation as Prime Minister. Thank you for coming to a speech where I don’t just ...
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    6 days ago
  • West Coast tourism attractions officially open
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    1 week ago
  • Independent ferry service advisory group in place
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    1 week ago
  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand
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    1 week ago
  • Govt will deliver on expanded breast screening
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  • Government announces woolshed roadshows in support of sheep farmers
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    1 week ago
  • Speech: Address to the NZ Economics Forum
    It’s great to be back at the New Zealand Economics Forum. I would like to acknowledge everyone here today for your expertise and contribution, especially the Pro Vice-Chancellor, Head of the Waikato Management School, economists, students and experts alike. A year has passed since I was last before you, and ...
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  • Labour’s Three Waters legislation repealed
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    1 week ago
  • Cost of living support for beneficiary households
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    1 week ago
  • Government announces agriculture delegations to better support Primary sector
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  • Waikato MoU reinforces Govt’s commitment to increase NZ doctors
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    2 weeks ago
  • Speech – Lunar New Year 2024
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    2 weeks ago
  • More funding to Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti
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    2 weeks ago
  • Budget will be delivered on 30 May
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    2 weeks ago
  • Government advances Local Water Done Well
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    2 weeks ago
  • Minister congratulates NZQA Top Scholars
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    2 weeks ago
  • New diplomatic appointments
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  • Speech to the Committee for Auckland
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  • Getting Transport Back on Track in Auckland
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    2 weeks ago
  • Government to axe Auckland Regional Fuel Tax
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    2 weeks ago
  • Minister Calls for Work to Tackle Kina Barrens
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    2 weeks ago
  • Government law and order crackdown begins
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    2 weeks ago

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