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Open mike 09/02/2020

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, February 9th, 2020 - 107 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

107 comments on “Open mike 09/02/2020”

  1. Ad 1

     

     

    Anyone got any favorites for the Dunedin South Labour nomination?

    Now that the seat stretches into Balclutha, Waihola and Beaumont and beyond it's going to be no sure thing. Those are solid National areas. If Labour lost this seat it would be devastating for morale.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/south-otago/huge-implications-boundary-changes

    The new candidate is going to have to do some real work.

    "At least three people are expected to seek the Labour Party nomination for the Dunedin South electorate to be vacated by sitting member of Parliament Clare Curran at this year’s September general election.

    The Star understands that Rachel Brooking, a lawyer specialising in local government and environmental law; Ingrid Leary, broadcaster, lawyer and cultural relations specialist; and Simon McCallum, a senior lecturer in software engineering, are all seeking nomination. It is not known if there are likely to be other nominees."

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/three-keen-dunedin-south-labour-nomination

    I'd like to know what a cultural relations specialist is. 

    • Andre 1.1

      Tat Loo!

      If BloJo can be UK PM and the Tangerine Tantrump can be IMPOTUS, Tat's time to shine has surely come!

      • OnceWasTim 1.1.1

        🙂

        You could be right, or correct, or both

         

        • OnceWasTim 1.1.1.1

          Apologies @ Andre. Didn't have me specs. I saw Tat Loo in the first line and misread it as him commenting about himself. Far be it for me to accuse you of being 'right'

          • Andre 1.1.1.1.1

            laugh

            Here I've been called a RWNJ, a right concern troll, a Clinton stooge and a bunch of other stuff. Suggesting I "could be right" has all the sting of getting savaged by a particularly gentle friendly kitten.

      • Ad 1.1.2

        He'd be better suited to NZFirst. A proper outlier grumpy.

        • RedLogix 1.1.2.1

          Young Tat is now married and with a young family. Long term this will either cure the grump or make it worse smiley

          • Ad 1.1.2.1.1

            That's great to hear.

          • Anne 1.1.2.1.2

            Back in the days of "Red Alert" (remember RA?) Tat was a much appreciated commenter. Glad to hear he's doing the family thing. We might get the old Tat back again.

            • Louis 1.1.2.1.2.1

              Judging by his tweeting, I seriously doubt that. His grudge is still firmly in place. 

              • Anne

                I never figured out what his grudge actually was – apart from the ongoing row with Clare Curran which exploded into a battle against Labour as a whole.

    • WeTheBleeple 1.2

      'I'd like to know what a cultural relations specialist is'

      Those people tasked to follow politicians around and check what they're saying. They tap them on the shoulder. 'Pssst, don't be racist'.

      • OnceWasTim 1.2.1

        Could be anything @ WeTheBleeple. Anything from a public relations 'specialist' for gangs trying to improve the ummage going forward, or even a spin doctor for an RNZ management team desperately trying to push their barrow uphill.

    • Gabby 1.3

      Does Simon McCallum not have a law degree squirreled away? Strike the fellow from the list.

    • Graeme 1.4

      Will be interesting to see what comes of the boundary changes.  The only group that's happy with them seem to be National Party hacks, presumably so they get multiple bites at the 'fundraising' cherry, and get a new rural electorate in Clutha Taieri (South Dunedin)

      Otherwise there's considerable angst around community of interest all around the areas affected by the changes.  It looks like the Representation Commission stepped back from a new electorate in Central / Lakes and fudged the boundaries to get constructive feedback, and will come back with something more representative.  The changes with South Dunedin and in Central Otago / Upper Clutha can hardly be called representative.

      A good overview from a Lakes pov is this piece.  It can be read at a local government level as well and be as pertinent.

       

      • Ad 1.4.1

        We have so many electorates with MPs who represent the interest of farming so well. 

        The point is well made that Queenstown-Lakes needs an MP who can represent the interests of tourism. 

        By the next boundary re-draw it will be more pressing, because Wanaka will be a population of about 10,000 and Queenstown itself will be heading for 16,000.

        It's the fastest-growing area in New Zealand.

        https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/queenstown-lakes-fastest-growing-nz

        It would surely also be one of New Zealand's wealthiest and most National-leaning.

        • Graeme 1.4.1.1

          I think one of the reasons National isn't keen on a Southern Lakes electorate is that it mightn't be as clear-cut as most think.  Hamish Walker has ended up looking more like a Labour opposition MP than a National one with health and immigration campaigns.  Irony of the situation is he's campaigning again the effects of policies National enacted.

          While the place is National voting at present, it is not conservative, but very liberal and green.  It sort of inhabits the area around the back between ACT and Green Party.  David Parker was a very respected local MP here in the days of the old Otago electorate.  I think given a candidate who can understand and is part of the electorate a Southern Lakes electorate could be anyone's.

    • swordfish 1.5

      .
      Would certainly make Dunners South more marginal … but easy to overstate implications… Balclutha & Milton, for instance, are Light Blue National-leaners rather than Deep Blue strongholds. (combined Govt Bloc support not too far shy of Nat+ACT).

      Will, of course, lose Left-leaning Otago Peninsula to Dunedin North … but again wouldn't want to overstate the ramifications.

      Needs an in-depth analysis … but I'm guessing it's still Labour on paper.

    • Corey Humm 1.6

      Losing port hills and Dunedin south will be a moral crusher. I think we may hold on to Dunedin south but Port hills needs a miracle it was already tight

  2. All of which (above) reminds me – does anyone know what's happened to greywarshark?

    My suspicions are maybe she got the biff for some ill-advised remark. No doubt she'll be monitoring though – but it seems she might have been correct about her observations re TDB. It's nice to know Martyn is actually a sensitive wee lad, but I wish there could be a bit of a truce between TS and TDB. (probably not happening though until it all really turns to shit – quite a few egos are at stake)

     

     

    • veutoviper 2.1

      Waxxing lyrical over on TDB – challenging former TS commenter SaveNZ for the most comments on Open Mic.  Also continuing to comment on Bowalley Road – in both cases as greywarbler.  What were the observations re TDB?

      Didn't get the biff per se, but was pulled up by me and others on Open Mike 21 Dec 2019 for a couple of ill-advised remarks.  See the discussion preceding the link below. Has only made a couple of small comments here since.

      But be careful using female pronouns or you may be the subject of consderable displeasure as I was for doing so – although may others had done so in the past including moderators, eg weka.  Comment:Open mike 21/12/2019    LOL

      PS – If you are lurking grey – Happy Birthday.
      I seem to recall you posting in late Jan 2019 that you would not be commenting much on TS because it was your 7X birthday in February and you would be focussing on cleaning out possessions etc.

      • OnceWasTim 2.1.1

        Yep, well – some things just rark me up so much it gets hard to hold my tongue.

        Like the Concert FM proposals for example.  As for the 7X birthday, I've just become a real person now upon recently receiving my gold card. 

        After a lifetime of being a Labour suppota (and acknowledging JA's massive contribution), I'm considering turning Green, or even Brown, and if it wasn't for Shane, Black could even be a possibility. And the reason is that there's only a certain amount of dead rats that can be swallowed.

        – The way some immigrants have been treated and the bugger's muddle of an institution that handles it all. Reform of an administration that's allowed scams to become normalised and then blaming its victims

        – The way people are being exploited and the time its taken for it to be recognised as a problem – ditto the victim blaming

        – Worksafe's failure to prosecute on a number of things

        – The Archices NZ and Natlib situation

        – and now Concert FM and PSB  (I might not be around in 2023)

        Things might have to get worse before they eventually get better, but as my friends and family keep telling me – Rome wasn't built in a day

    • veutoviper 2.2

      Well that's interesting, OWT – you yourself have been reading -and replying to – Greywarbler at TDB.

       Indeed, less than two days ago on TDB Open Mic 7 February, you replied to one of a couple of Greywarbler comments* re the Wuhan evacuations of NZers, and Greywarbler then replied to you, ie:

      Greywarbler February 7, 2020 at 10:08 am

      Our compassion, commitment, and organising power is not all used up on one flight is it. Is it? What about those who couldn’t make it the first time? We welcomed people into NZ, and now we must embrace them just as we did in Christchurch. And learn from our failures after then, that goodwill and kindness must be a continuing thing while the need continues, now.
      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/409002/wuhan-coronavirus-people-still-in-wuhan-urge-further-government-intervention

      OnceWasTim February 7, 2020 at 6:23 pm

      I did hear somewhere @Greywarbler that ‘officials’ are looking at ways of providing support for those still stuck there. Rome wasn’t built in a day though, and I expect they’ve called for a business case to determine what the best options are in this space going forward. I suspect an announcement will be made soon – in the interests of transparency, transformation and kindness.
      The holdup might be that they negotiating with Julie Christie over rights to a ‘Border Force’ style reality TV show

      Greywarbler February 8, 2020 at 9:13 pm

      I suspect that you may be right OwT. But loet’s look on the bright side sometimes, it’s good to be wrong about lack of commitment to good principles.

      Did you really not connect that "Greywarbler" to" greywarshark"?  Grey previously commented here at TS at Greywarbler but changed handle to greywarshark at the time of the Rawshark revelations.  (Also used a couple of other handles here prior to that – Prism and a very shortlived Rosetinted.) 

      [*  As an aside, of the seven comments on TDB's Open Mic that day, five were from Greywarbler.]

       

      • OnceWasTim 2.2.1

        I'm absolutely useless remembering names!!!! (I can remember my phone number 45 years ago, but names confuse me.)  It's poss I've confused a warbler with a shark.

        What she was correct about though is that sometimes comments might disappear if they challenge an ego. It might eventually surface. 

        But again, just like PSB complementing rather than trying to compete, there's a place (or should I say 'space') for both TS and TDB.

        Yep, I have confused the warbler and the shark.
        Cup of tea and lay down time,

      • Sacha 2.2.2

        Grey previously commented here at TS at Greywarbler but changed handle to greywarshark at the time of the Rawshark revelations.  (Also used a couple of other handles here prior to that – Prism and a very shortlived Rosetinted.

        Fascinating. How many others here have that sort of multi-handle history?

        • Andre 2.2.2.1

          There was Paul/Ed/Tammy/Milly plus a few other handles I don't remember.

          Then there's the Agora/Paaparakauta situation that Incognito has been trying to put a lid on.

          Morrissey and Professor Longhair certainly have an astonishingly similar collection of interests and way of expressing themselves, but haven't been explicitly called out as being one and the same. Perhaps use of different devices going through different ISPs is sufficient differentiation.

          • OnceWasTim 2.2.2.1.1

            Paul is the reason I became a Tim, and the only reason I choose anonymity is in the interests of the family – everyone in NZ with my surname is realated and they're generally nice folks whereas I can be a prat at times. Thinking about it now, I've surprised myself I didn't pick up on how similar a shark and a warbler are. Especially since the other examples are a dead giveaway.

        • weka 2.2.2.2

          Some of us were vipers for a while. Such an interesting history that one.

          • Sacha 2.2.2.2.1

            Quite. I had forgotten about that.

          • veutoviper 2.2.2.2.2

            Some of us still are – vipers that is!

            I also remember quite a few raw sharks for awhile including a wekarawshark no less. LOL

            • weka 2.2.2.2.2.1

              Ha ha, yep. Sorry about the viper thing, it's so weird how people's handles just become their own thing.

  3. joe90 3

    Believe nothing until there’s an official denial….

     

  4. Muttonbird 4

    God smites he with a God complex.

    Jordan Peterson's year of 'absolute hell': Professor forced to retreat from public life because of addiction

    Went to Russia for treatment.

    Er…Ok then.

    Perhaps there should have been a 13th rule:

    Don't dress up in Peaky Blinders suits and whip up paranoia amongst young men while addicted to meds.

    https://nationalpost.com/news/jordan-petersons-year-of-absolute-hell-professor-forced-to-retreat-from-public-life-because-of-tranquilizer-addiction

    Get well soon, Doktor Peterson.

    • RedLogix 4.1

      If you want to gloat, direct it to his daughter. Leave us out of it please.



    • Paddington 4.2

      So a person suffering an addiction is fair game because you don’t like their opinions.  Nice.

      • joe90 4.2.1

        Dude ran around telling people to set your house in perfect order before you criticize the world, while his own fucking house was a shambling, benzo'd to the tits mess.

        • Paddington 4.2.1.1

          If we only listened to advice from people whose lives are perfect, we’d be listening to no-one. Gloating about someone’s addictions, no matter how much you dislike that person, is just a bit sick.

          • Muttonbird 4.2.1.1.1

            As joe said, Jordan Peterson built an empire around that phrase. We might have guessed he himself was not taking his own advice.

            Nope, while that transphobic misogynist might deserve sympathy for his plight on a personal level it is important the full picture of the man is revealed.

            What really irked me was that he profited from spreading paranoia, hatred and division among impressionable young men.

            Now we know he was a fraud all along.

            • RedLogix 4.2.1.1.1.1

              As someone who has been prone to anxiety attacks much of my life I consider myself fortunate not to have managed not to need drugs to control it. Anxiety disorders are exceedingly common, and are often not treated well. 

              Whether an individual is more or less sensitive to anxiety seems to be very much hard wired in as part of our genetic legacy, much like other aspects of our personality. Like skin colour, there isn't anything I can do to change this propensity, but I have learned to control it reasonably well most of the time.

              And in some extreme scenarios (such as when my mother was dying) I still struggle. I should imagine that when Jordan's wife Tammy was diagnosed with a potentially terminal cancer, this would rate as highly anxiety provoking. Would you not agree?

              To compound matters one of the more common drugs used to treat this condition, the so-called 'benzos', have a track record of causing physiological brain damage. This is a recognised problem.

              As for the spreading paranoia, hatred and division among impressionable young men tag; try reading the comment thread under the above linked video. There is now over 23,000 of them, many many of them expressing a heartfelt gratitude to JP for turning around dysfunctional lives, people battling depression, anxiety, suicidal thoughts, addictions, PTSD and all manner of personal struggles. 

              I quickly scanned several hundred, and didn't see any expressing paranoia, hatred, misogyny or division.  Quite the opposite really.

              • Muttonbird

                He has his fan base for sure and I'm not sure you're going to get the full picture from a condolence book as it were.

                If only he stuck to his self-help books! That's where he might have been doing something worthwhile.

                But he used that audience to further his attacks on transgender rights and equality of outcome with respect to women and minorities.

                As a regressive he hated these concept and sought to drag a whole lot of young people backwards. 

            • Chris T 4.2.1.1.1.2

              Where was he  "transphobic and misogynist"?

              The rest of your post isn't worth commenting on

            • Paddington 4.2.1.1.1.3

              Having addictions, or whatever other faults, does not make anyone a ‘fraud’.  Bill Clinton was a sexual predator, who used his power to indulge his sexual addiction.  It’s questionable that makes his successes as president fraudulent.

  5. joe90 5

    And these shouty old men want to run the shop.

    /

    • Cinny 5.1

      Lmfao !  biden and steyer kept talking so much shite and utter dribble, they reminded me a bit of dirtyjohn lololz!

      • RedLogix 5.1.1

        Women do their aggression in a different way; often by exclusion.

        About 18 months ago I had to attend an all day work training session. It was run by a woman who was perfectly competent and professional. (This is in a high tech engineering office context.) I enjoyed her content and from this perspective found the day very worthwhile.

        Attending were about 30 people, all except myself under the age of 40, and as is the usual ratio in most engineering offices I've seen, about 4 of them were young women. By lunchtime it was obvious that the presenter was only interacting with these 4 young women, the young men who were the majority in the room were totally ignored. At the lunch break the presenter quite pointedly only socialised with the women. As the day wore on the men became increasingly disengaged, while the women became more animated and were the only ones asking questions.

        Now everything on the surface looked perfectly polite and professional, no shouty or people talking over each other, no overt aggression. But when I quietly asked one of the older guys the next day about the covert exclusion that had gone down, his answer was along the lines 'yeah but it's not worth saying anything about it'.

        • Muttonbird 5.1.1.1

          Just balancing millennia of the reverse.

        • OnceWasTim 5.1.1.2

          Since I've just admitted to being a prat at times (above), I've often thought – with the trend towards medicalisation – that the solution to the likes of Trump, Putin, Modi, Bolsenaro, Duterte and others would be massive doses of estrogen (daily probably). But then what do you do with a few that are equipped with the Venus factor. Sure as shot it wouldn't be massive doses of testosterone.  Just thinking out loud
          Actually it’d probably be the same prescription

          • joe90 5.1.1.2.1

              A disease that only those with a hefty dose of estrogen survive?

            MORE MEN INFECTED THAN WOMEN

            The study suggested that men may be more susceptible to the virus than women with 68 per cent of the patients being male and just 32 per cent female, with the majority of men aged between 50 and 59.

            “The reduced susceptibility of females to viral infections could be attributed to the protection from X chromosome and sex hormones, which play an important role in innate and adaptive immunity,” the report suggested.

            https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/how-the-coronavirus-impacts-you-once-you-are-infected/news-story/5f817d2da97006ab390750a0ea14ad2b

            • OnceWasTim 5.1.1.2.1.1

              OK. I might have to have a rethink. There's an island somewhere (surrounded by water) within another island (surrounded by water – while it all lasts).

              Could be the ideal place to parachute them all in together, and leave them to it

            • A 5.1.1.2.1.2

              Men are smokers in China (from memory about 48%).  This causes changes to the lungs which make them more susceptible to nCoV.

              Check out the video on this from MedCram on YT.

    • Sabine 5.2

      its gonna by either one of these shouty men or the shouty man currently elevated to top dog. 



    • AB 5.3

      Yeah – but Sanders is shouting for things that will do a lot for the material conditions of life of non-elite women. In fact,  his policies will do far, far more for non-elite women than anything proposed by the elite woman (Klobuchar) who is not shouting in this image. So at best, your comment is mildly amusing, while still being complete shite.

      • joe90 5.3.1

        His policies aren't worth shit if he can't broaden his appeal and poll way better than he did four years ago.

         

        Sanders got just 8 percent support from Iowa caucus-goers 45 and older. And among seniors 65-plus, it was just 4 percent.

        While he overperformed among “very liberal” Iowa Dems (43 percent), he underperformed among “somewhat liberals” (19 percent) and moderates (12 percent).

        He got just 12 percent support from white women college graduates — arguably the heart of the Dem resistance against Trump.

        And maybe most concerning of all for Sanders, he won more than half of the Iowa caucus-goers who said they supported him in 2016. But he barely registered (7 percent) among the 54 percent of all Iowa caucus-goers who said they backed Hillary Clinton four years ago.

        So his base — right now — is about half of the Democrats who supported him in 2016.

        https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/what-stands-out-after-iowa-bernie-sanders-limited-crossover-appeal-n1132336

         

        btw, near forty years on the public tit and Sanders' isn't an elite?

        • adam 5.3.1.1

          The mainstream media in the USA have been lying for years – why you swallow  their bullshit is beyond me joe90. 

          I would have thought the whole russian conspiracy theory you pushed via them for the last 3 years  proving to be a pack of lies, might have made you realise. 

          But sadly no, you still burp up their propaganda and bullshit.  

           

          • McFlock 5.3.1.1.1

            […] proving to be a pack of lies […]

            Periodically someone says something so completely at odds with my bet at what is the most likely reality that I do sit down and have a quiet think.

            Sometimes I can see their point and it adjusts my mental calculus, sometimes it doesn't pan out.

            I tend to find, however, that the folks most convinced and utterly certain that the rest of the world has been duped in some way – they're the ones least likely to have anything of value in their perspective. Not so much about abstract opinions, just assertions of objective fact.

  6. joe90 6

    This is going to happen to whoever the dem nominee is.  If Sanders wins the nomination, dollars to donuts tRump's goons are going to demand and receive Jane Sanders’ FBI/financial records and weaponise them.

    The Treasury Department turned over Hunter Biden’s confidential financial records to Republican senators despite refusing to release President Donald Trump’s tax returns as required by law.

    Sens. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., announced that they will investigate Biden, the son of former Vice President Joe Biden, and “his associates during the Obama administration” just one hour after the Senate voted to acquit Trump in an impeachment trial with no new witnesses or documents sparked by the president’s push to investigate his political rivals. There is no evidence nor credible allegations that either Hunter or Joe Biden did anything illegal.

     

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/treasury-hands-biden-records-over-to-gop-after-refusing-to-release-trump-tax-returns/

    • Sabine 6.1

      this will happen to anyone who dares not bend the knee, submit fully and start sucking on that orange mushroom. 

       

  7. Sabine 7

    oh the generosity

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/communities-financially-devastated-bushfires?fbclid=IwAR1m5t0tT7vaaEFcMJz1gCOJP9c7Czt0gGQlQzCRtp6HeMwD9vIW4oE9twg

     

    Offering $2 billion over two years to a newly established National Bushfire Recovery Agency, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said “the surplus is of no focus to me” on January 6.

    By comparison, the Queensland government alone spent $7.6 billion in subsidising the coal industry between 2008-14, according to The Australia Institute. And according to the International Monetary Fund Fiscal Affairs Department, Australian subsidies of fossil fuels reached $29 billion in 2017.

  8. Sacha 8

    Echoes of hapless Brash as Winston urges his party officials to go to police over material being shared with media: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12307127

    • James 8.1

      The amusing thing is that he’s going on about a huge breach of ‘party’ material – when most of the bits in the media are about the ‘foundation’

      i guess it’s not surprising he’s confused. 

  9. Anne 9

    National and Labour neck and neck according to TV3's Reid Research Poll.

    Since Reid Research is usually more generous to Labour than the Colmar Brunton, I am surprised Labour didn't do better considering the positive publicity Jacinda has been getting in recent weeks. 

    What it suggests to me is that National's negative attack strategy is already working in election year – and that is backed up with what I heard among my relatives over Xmas. Some people might not like hearing this, but the "relentless positivity" campaign strategy came in for criticism of Jacinda. That they saw it as unrealistic and a bit plastic would be my summation.

    I am inclined to agree – at least in part. A counter attack against the lies and innuendo from National is inevitable if Labour wants to keep the treasury benches. Maintaining a lofty ‘we’re not going to play with you' sentiment will mean nothing to the average voter.

    They actually like to see a little bit of mongrel from political parties, and are inclined to regard those who don't play as a bunch of wusses.

    Just off to find some secure head gear in preparation for the probable disagreements among fellow standardistas.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/02/national-and-labour-neck-and-neck-in-new-newshub-reid-research-poll.html

    • James 9.1

      Interesting that this time in the electoral cycle greens were 13% and Nz first 8% 

      and this poll was taken before nats rules out Nz first. 

      • Anne 9.1.1

        I imagine it indicates there are a lot of 'undeciders' this election year. National dropped slightly and Labour rose slightly, yet neither appear to have gained from former Green and NZ First voters.

        On that basis it makes for a very bumpy election year.

        • James 9.1.1.1

          Yep. A 2% shift in the polls changes the government. 
           

          cant imagine the current mob are happy with this after just one term. 

      • Muttonbird 9.1.2

        This outcome differs from a Stuff/YouGov poll released in November, which counted a similar majority for a Labour party at 41 per cent, provided it worked with either the Greens or NZ First, both at 8 per cent.

        In both polls, National had no path to power. The party lacked three seats to bring it across the 61 seat threshold in Sunday's poll.

        So yeah and that's the trend. National has no path to power.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119382109/new-poll-shows-tight-margin-between-labour-and-national-and-nz-first-is-out 

        • James 9.1.2.1

          Unless there is a 2% shift which puts National in power 

           

          or if the greens drop below 5% 

           

          not a strong position for the current government after a single term. 

          • Muttonbird 9.1.2.1.1

            This poll shows Labour and the Greens in a very strong position to govern alone.

            Not sure there's been a time when the two poll near 50% but that is the case now.

            That's also a trend – that the public are getting on board an environmentally, economically, and socially sound left wing government.

            Labour + Greens 2014 Election – 36%

            Labour + Greens 2017 Election – 43%

            Labour + Greens Newshub RR – 48%

            That must scare the shit out of National and its supporters.

            • James 9.1.2.1.1.1

              Not at all. 
               

              greens have gone 2011 – 11.06 down to 2014- 10.7 down to 2017 – 6.3 and this year may well end up under 5%. 
               

              nz first could also be well gone.  Going to be an interesting year for them. 
               

              Could be a one term government. Jacinda quits and goes to UN. Labour have no other quality people – stay in opposition for another 9 years. Yay. 

              • Muttonbird

                That vote has transferred to Labour. And the total is increasing at an alarming (if you are in the National Party) rate.

                I, along with an increasing number of New Zealanders, am looking forward to the first Labour/Green government.

                Where does Simon go after inevitable defeat? The back-benches. Yay.

      • Muttonbird 9.1.3

        Ah, I see. James has been to Kiwiblog to get his opinion and reassurance again.

    • Sacha 9.2

      I am surprised Labour didn't do better considering the positive publicity Jacinda has been getting in recent weeks.

      Polls lag. Not that media companies who spend money on them want to tell that story – hence grasping for recent explanations for each single poll. Trends matter.

    • McFlock 9.3

      This year's election is shaping up to be all about mates – who has friends and who doesn't

      lol

      almost like the election was being held under some sort of prortional representation system. Expert analysis from tv3…

    • In Vino 9.4

      + 1 Anne   (Sorry to disappoint.)

    • Muttonbird 9.5

      You must play your intuitive game, Anne. As soon as you depart from what you know you are in trouble.

      JA knows positivity. That's what has brought Labour to 43% and that's what she should continue with. For her to wrestle with pigs would be a disaster I think.

      If Labour need to get dirty the someone else will have to do it. Normally this would be Phil Twyford but he has had such dismal term and his credibility is so shot that for him to try be the enforcer would also be a disaster.

      Lab/Green is 48%. Stick to the plan, it’s working.

      • Anne 9.5.1

        If Labour need to get dirty the someone else will have to do it.

        Of course. No-one is suggesting Jacinda do it. Her natural personna is special and must be kept that way.

        And it isn't a case of Labour getting dirty but rather responding to the Nat Party dirty tricks and misinformation strategy we know is going to be full on this year. Its a sad fact that many people are fooled by such tactics – look at Trump's America – and they are almost as gullible here.

        Grant Robertson can do it. Chris Hipkins, Megan Woods and Andrew Little are very smart and experienced and can dish it out when required. There will be others on the back benches who can do it as well.

  10. Billy 10

    A random thought on this sunny afternoon.

    The criticism of the Labour government's push towards well-being has been called flighty and novel and empty. It's been used to push the claim that Ardern is some sort of airhead.

    I'm not on board with a lot of the political PR coming out of this government, but hoisting well-being as being something we should strive for is hardly a flighty and novel and empty concept.

    "Well-being" is a pretty good translation of εὐδαιμονία, or eudaimonia.

    Critics who claim the drive is flighty and novel and empty need to pick up their ancient Greek philosophy readers.

    The idea that the good life – pursing long term strategies for maximizing pleasure and in the name of social harmony and virtue – is hardly new. It’s certainly not flighty, novel, or empty.

    It’s a shame that the Ardern government’s critics, some of whom have apparently studied philosophy, were unable or unwilling to grasp this, and engage in a serious, historically and philosophically engaged, and meaningful, way.

    But we’ve come to expect bad faith, haven’t we.

    • Billy 10.1

      CORRECTION

      The idea *of the good life – pursing long term strategies for maximizing pleasure and in the name of social harmony and virtue – is hardly *a new one.

      I would love to see our representatives debating these concepts more substantially in the House. We’ve got millenia to draw on, come on, guys; not to mention the philosophical collieries inherent in Te Ao Māori Tikanga (in many respects I feel the ancients would feel more comfortable on a marae than they would in Parliament. Those worlds were not so far removed from each other).

    • Ad 10.2

      It would have ben better if Ardern had spent more time learning how to make practise into perfection studying Aristotle's Nichomachean Ethics than preaching Marxism to they already-converted at the Socialist Youth International. 

      Wellbeing is as slippery as a term and as a practise as Whanau Ora. It's a palimpsest.

      Bridges was criticized for trying to hold Ardern to political account at precisely the place Ardern invited everyone to do so last year.  If the public and the media are so immature that they can't allow her to be criticized with facts when she invited it, we're a long way before we get to definitional niceties as you propose.

      • Billy 10.2.1

        Nobody is arguing with any intelligence or knowledge. Hit me up, brother. You’ve got two-and-a-half thousand years of philosophy and literature and history to argue from or with. Don’t see it in your comment.

        Aristotle was of a different school from the philosophers I dropped. How is Aristotle relevant to your response? Have you read the Nichomachean Ethics?

        • Billy 10.2.1.1

          I've spent the past three years studying ancient Greek and Latin. Please tell me how Aristotle's conception of virtue is relevant to my argument, and why you brought it up. Thanks.

          Don’t let me put you off. Studying the classics has been one of the most fulfilling studies of my life, beside my gardening.

          “Start and you are half done. Dare to be wise; begin!”
          – Horace

  11. Poission 11

    Critics who claim the drive is flighty and novel and empty need to pick up their ancient Greek philosophy readers.

    OK how about Isocrates (Areopagiticus)

    Therefore, being of this mind, our forefathers did not seek to discover first how they should penalize men who were lawless, but how they should produce citizens who would refrain from any punishable act; for they thought that this was their duty, while it was proper for private enemies alone to be zealous in the avenging of crime.

    Now our forefathers exercised care over all the citizens, but most of all over the young. They saw that at this age men are most unruly of temper and filled with a multitude of desires, and that their spirits are most in need of being curbed by devotion to noble pursuits and by congenial labor; for only such occupations can attract and hold men who have been educated liberally and trained in high-minded ways.

    However, since it was not possible to direct all into the same occupations, because of differences in their circumstances, they assigned to each one a vocation which was in keeping with his means; for they turned the needier towards farming and trade, knowing that poverty comes about through idleness, and evil-doing through poverty.

     

    • Billy 11.1

      Ha!

      Those concerned with eudaimonia had some contempt for the contemporary rhetoricians or sophists of that time, too.

      I have noted that some of our contemporary sophists get red in the face in media or other public appearances also. And they, like Isocrates, can afford to drive late model European vehicles. Proves their virtue, I suppose. No time for idleness and evil doing like the gadfly-who-must-be-destroyed.

      • Billy 11.1.1

        And that's why I refuse to accept curbs on speech, my brother, especially by the horse (or whomever is whipping it).

        • Billy 11.1.1.1

          the gadfly being Socrates, of course. Your Isocrates (note the “I”, a different person) stood by and watched, much like many of you disgraceful liberals have stood back and damned Julian Assange.

          Disgraceful then, disgraceful now.

          But you don’t need my opinion and nor does history, which will damn you.

  12. joe90 12

    I guess Cambridge Analytica has arrived.

    We did it! And a new golden age awaits, says ARRON BANKS

    AT 11pm on Friday the UK left the European Union after 47 years of membership, an historic moment.

    […]

    In the end, the British public always gets what it wants! 

    I’m in New Zealand for three months, and celebrated Brexit with a glass of Cloudy Bay and a barbecue by the beach. 

     

    New Zealand is a country of five million people with a legal system based on English Law, and has an immigration system that suits them. It’s a small country but a terrific one! 

     

    Worldwide there are successful independent countries based on our system of government including Australia, Canada, Hong Kong and Singapore. 

    https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1236710/brexit-news-brexit-day-leave-european-union

  13. A 14

    Let's hope Bob Jones loses his case, although there just a judge which makes me worry for Renae Maihi.

    Kia Kaha Renae! 

    • James 14.1

      Shouldn’t we hope for justice to be served – not hoping the person you don’t like loses – especially when you don’t have all the info available ?

    • Muttonbird 14.2

      I'm surprised Jones thinks the words of Renae Maihi carry so much weight.

      She must have struck a nerve.

  14. Sanctuary 15

    Basically, the polls have not moved since the last one. I anticipate the politically  flawless start to the year by Labour has bumped them up slightly, if anything.

    I don't agree National can go any higher in the polls – they've had a bottomless pit of money and a sympathetic media for their time in opposition, so IMHO their support is as high as it will ever be. Basically, they've been in a permanent campaign since they got turfed out. 

    Labour has grown it's vote since the last election, but they need to shore things up – Swarbrick needs a clear run in Auckland Central and give Shane Jones Northland and they'lll be home no problems. 

  15. Eco maori 16

    Kia Ora Newshub

    Electric cars are the way of the future Its the Ion age. 

    The Greens are a good party who will push environmentaly friendly policies that should be good for our futures.

    No other species does things that jeopardise their Offsprings servival.

    Ka kite Ano 

     

     

  16. Eco maori 17

    Kia Ora Newshub. 

    Tawhirimate is getting more Mana with Global Warming. 

    It will be good when half Wahine are in all leadership roles. 

    I would like a Ap to find moles O don't need 1 I'm pretty good at finding them. 

    Ka kite Ano 

     

  17. Eco maori 18

    Kia Ora Newshub. 

    Times are changing to fast for some. 

    That's is cool Te Tairawhiti studying the economics and health remedies of Kanuka Manuka. Those flowers were Manuka. 

    Ka kite Ano 

     

     

  18. Eco maori 19

    Kia Ora Newshub. 

    Droughts were predicted by our scientists. 

    The mess that national created while lining their M8 pockets with gold is still rolling in as predicted. 

    Those 2 deaths will be directly linked to PEE. 

    Ka kite Ano 

     

     

     

  19. Eco maori 20

    Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News. 

    That's is cool having 2 good Wahine mentoring new musicians. 

    That will be a great play telling the story of gay people not getting Justice. 

    Ka kite Ano 

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