Open mike 09/12/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, December 9th, 2023 - 95 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

95 comments on “Open mike 09/12/2023 ”

  1. Barfly 1

    What's your pick over the "Winter warmth allowance"?

    1 Cancelled

    2 Cancelled for beneficiaries but not superannuants

    3 Untouched

    My pick is number 3 because Winston won't allow 1 and 2 would be to damaging – but I guess the RW does love its raw meat so…?

    • weka 1.1

      ACT's policy was to make it targeted

      https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2305/S00003/act-would-end-winter-energy-payment-money-go-round.htm

      Would be good to know if anyone has done the costing on that.

    • I believe Act? did not want it for all.

    • Chess Player 1.3

      My pick is that no-one will correct the systemic failures that give rise to a country with 90% renewable energy having to subsidise its citizens’ power bills.

      And that’s not just the latest crowd, that’s your beloved lefty parties too.

      All the power for three years, but not an ounce of courage amongst them.

      • Ed1 1.3.1

        That is the beauteous thing about sell offs of state owned organisations to make them privately owned "for profit" companies, which have as their primary aim to make profits for shareholders. Make it a small group of companies and there should be competition between them – "Right" Chess Player? Well actually they of course act independently, but since that watching isn't too hard, nobody needs to work too hard to keep the price escalator moving up step by step with different companies leading or trailing from time to time. But they are even better than that – the prices are now so bound up with sign up bonuses and loyalty bonusses and free hours and other complications that many can no longer determine who is cheapest this month . . .

        So what can be done – well of course they should be bought back – we have all that money raised from the sales, shouldn't that be available? Well actually no; it disappeared very quickly into other government priorities of the day. With recent other priorities of dealing with Covid and just a few extreme weather events, what do you think should have been done by the last government, Chess Player? Or what do you think should be now done by the current government?

        But to give just a little suggestion, it should be possible to require providers to accept power fed back to the system to be received at the average price of electricity charged to that customer on that day, or perhaps an average for the billing period. Perhaps that may make a marginal difference to get a few more people to invest in generation through their own resources (wind, solar or water).

  2. Barfly 2

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/08/middleeast/babies-al-nasr-gaza-hospital-what-we-know-intl/index.html

    I'm not sure how the IDF can manage the PR on this one. Fortunate that the staff recorded their interactions.

    • SPC 2.1

      Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that a “gap” remains between Israel’s stated intent of protecting civilians in the Gaza Strip and what has unfolded over the past week as fighting has resumed.

      At a news conference alongside Britain’s foreign minister, former prime minister David Cameron, Blinken was asked whether the Israelis have “disregarded” what he requested last week when he announced that they had agreed to the Biden administration’s “imperative” to mitigate civilian casualties after restarting the offensive in Gaza. In response, Blinken listed what the administration considers several positive developments.

      For instance, he said the Israelis now are evacuating neighborhoods instead of entire cities. He also highlighted Israel’s creation of “deconfliction areas” where people can “be safe” from surrounding violence and said its military operation is being conducted in a “more narrowly focused area.”

      “Having said that,” Blinken added, “as we stand here almost a week into this campaign in the south after the humanitarian pause ended, it is imperative — it remains imperative — that Israel put a premium on civilian protection. And there does remain a gap between exactly what I said when I was there — the intent to protect civilians — and the actual results that we’re seeing on the ground.”

      Israeli forces should focus on “a number of things,” Blinken said. The administration wants them to tell civilians where to go and when so they can be safe. Israel should also make “very clear” when it’s safe to move, he said. Israeli leaders must ensure that these “daily pauses” apply to a broad area, not just a single neighborhood, so people “have confidence to know that they can move out of harm’s way.”

      They should also pledge to “fully” supply the safe zones with food, medicine and water, Blinken said.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/07/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-update-palestine/

    • adam 2.2

      The will do what SPC did in response to your post, put out misdirection and obfuscation.

      • SPC 2.2.1

        Too subtle?

        I would have thought the recent American statement an expression of concern about past civilian deaths and expectations about IDF procedures. Which includes improved guarantees of safe passage from areas under attack.

        In the instance in the above report – there was a time for leaving the hospital, but no ambulances arrived because the only body supplying them said it was not safe.

        And the addition of US expectation of full supply to the safe zones (given another truce including aid hostages swaps is not likely in the short term) is because of both lack of amount being processed through the border (and the claims of lack of safety for UN workers moving it – some deaths in the recent past).

        Why the UN is not talking about shipping in aid to the safe zone by the coast is beyond me.

        • adam 2.2.1.1

          Just more of it.

          The ability to spew death of Gaza are based on a simple premise, the USA Empire is providing arms and more importantly, cover – in the way of forward naval projection.

          So sure distract with nice words if you want.

          But the bottom line is the IDF lied, they have been caught out, once again, and all we get is misdirection and obfuscation. While Palestinian Jews, Christians and Muslims die in droves.

        • Barfly 2.2.1.2

          Israel maintains a naval blockade

  3. Ad 3

    Oil is still US$75 a barrel despite war in Middle East.

    OPEC's power has been broken by Russia invading Ukraine and dumping oil at massive discount.

    Sure beats 1973 50 years ago.

    But also underlines why NZ must achieve full energy production independence: this war suppresses both global economic growth and old alliances.

    • In theory demand for oil should begin to fall as EV's take over.

      However, EV's are predicted to be less than 30% of the stock of light vehicles in use in the world in 2035. This is way too slow. There need to be much stronger incentives and regulations forcing the switch to EV's.

      https://www.ev-volumes.com/

      • Chess Player 3.1.1

        Imagine if we had an environment party that included people with economic nous, and would work with whatever large party was leading the government.

        We’d be unstoppable.

        • Robert Guyton 3.1.1.1

          Imagine if those 2 major parties gave the enviro/econ party you describe the influence it deserves; they'd be unstoppable.

        • Bearded Git 3.1.1.2

          Luxon took the government's EV discount for himself (his Tesla) and then dumped it. He has ended the ban on offshore oil and gas prospecting and production. He has committed to building 13 massive roading projects but has dumped light rail and is scaling back bike trails….and so on.

          We already have a Green Party with considerable economic nous-take a look at their clever Wealth Tax proposal in their manifesto under "Ending Poverty".

          https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vSWSfQJunWVEuNIQjF4sdIy3Qa7uFoe6R6vHIk5lh9EmSH_Amf7yXFssfK9GHzu8S19NbrzPcB8Oj_o/pub

          Why would a Green party ever trust Luxon on anything Chess?

          • Adrian 3.1.1.2.1

            Two Teslas. Got to grab a good thing when it’s going cheap.

          • Chess Player 3.1.1.2.2

            Well, the Greens and National worked together on the home insulation improvements, so collaboration is definitely possible.

            Collaboration on specific policies is a far better way to achieve improvements than having to wait until Labour gets its occasional turn in government.

            But I do realise that most on this blog are too highly principled to be pragmatic.

            • Bearded Git 3.1.1.2.2.1

              Fair call re the insulation.

              But I do think this has the look of a one term government.

              Luxon and Seymour are singularly unimpressive, and Peters has partially lost it.

        • AB 3.1.1.3

          Imagine if we had a large right-wing party that said it "cared deeply" about getting GHG emissions down, but clearly intended to do nothing effective about it – and on top of that pretended that the reason it wasn't going to do anything about it was because it had economic 'nous' and 'knew' that only market-led solutions were acceptable?

          And if imagine if that economically-illiterate, large right-wing party insisted that a well established environment party, which really did have economic 'nous' and a record of commitment, support them in whatever f*ckwittery the large party wanted to do?

          That'd all be pretty bad eh?

          • Populuxe1 3.1.1.3.1

            Imagine if wishes were horses. It's at least a reasonable expectation of Labour, given the Greens tend to be their natural coalition party, although the environment seems to becoming increasingly less important to the Green back benchers.

        • Populuxe1 3.1.1.4

          Imagine if the right wing parties were laughing in your face at the suggestion.

          • Chess Player 3.1.1.4.1

            There’s only one right wing party in parliament in NZ and that’s ACT.

            And they’re about as far right as a mild Republican in the US, I’d say.

            • Populuxe1 3.1.1.4.1.1

              I don't know what you're smoking, but I hope you brought enough for everyone. I don't care how big you try to make the centre – National is on the right of it.

        • bwaghorn 3.1.1.5

          The greens working with a party that thinks allowing its support party to have Andrew Hoggard as associate environment minister is an impossible dream

          • Robert Guyton 3.1.1.5.1

            Hoggard?

            Bucolic but.

          • Chess Player 3.1.1.5.2

            Ok, sure, while you pontificate on the perfect solution, and resist until that arrives, the world burns.

            But you kept your principles intact aye, so all good.

            • bwaghorn 3.1.1.5.2.1

              Na my principles don't matter, national don't give a fuck about the environment, remember wadable rivers are good enough for them , they've started oil and Gas exploration again , ypu either a dreamer or a shit stirrer,

      • UncookedSelachimorpha 3.1.2

        …plus passenger vehicles are only around 26% of global oil consumption…so 30% of 26% = 8% of total oil requirement.

      • roblogic 3.1.3

        We need to triple our electricity production in order to switch our vehicle fleet to EV

        Didn’t National just cancel a hydro project?

        • Ad 3.1.3.1

          MBIE and EA could at least do us a national energy Strategy.

          Or the market is going to fuck us.

        • Jack 3.1.3.2

          Nope, they cancel a $16,000,000,000 bucket. Not generation capacity.

          • SPC 3.1.3.2.1

            $16B to provide for dry years and protect us from the market – I guess National plans to finance their future tax cut plans out of the profits in the power companies (rising charges to the public for powering up their cars).

            Little wonder they seek to maintain the car addiction.

            • Jack 3.1.3.2.1.1

              Is that based on fact or reckons?

              • SPC

                It is designed for dry years. FACT.

                The alternative is power companies have surplus carrying capacity to cover dry years. Expensive and thus higher costs every year.

                The battery storage development would be more likely to cover variability in wind generation, or seasonal cold, as it is not on this scale.

                The government owns 49% of most power companies. FACT.

                So far it earns more from 49% ownership than from 100% in the past. Thus offload of a nice earner to those looking to diversify their investment portfolio – the profiteering off historic government assets to a minority of the people.

                There is a growth in power demand coming from EV's. FACT

                An investment in dry year management is advantageous for consumers, including business. And hydro stuff lasts decades.

                It would also allow more flexibility on the power currently going to the smelter.

                It is much sounder strategically.

                But then NZ Inc, is not how National think.

                No need to be in the dark. This information is freely available by using google – Onslow dam.

                • Jack

                  National plans to finance their future tax cuts plans out of the profits in the power companies

                  Fact or reckon?

                • weka

                  build it and they will come.

                  Where will we put the next dam, once the current and planned ones feed the growth economy and we need more?

                  South Island people aren't keen on damming more rivers, which is why the two attempts on the Clutha and one on the Waitaki in recent decades have failed.

                  People like Onslow because its in the back of beyond and most people don't understand what is there and think it's just a nothing space, Terra Nullius.

                  • Robert Guyton

                    I've been there, weka.

                    It's the most appropriate "space" imaginable for the proposed project.

                    • weka

                      I have no problem with using natural landscapes for such projects, under the following conditions.

                      1. it's moving us to a steady state or degrowth economy
                      2. it's done with regard for nature as having rights, rather than being a resources to exploit
                      3. it's for essential power use. Not everyone having their own car, leaf blower and heated towel rail.

                      Because there is no escaping the fact that if we keep breaking nature to grow the economy, the economy will keep growing until nature breaks us.

                    • SPC

                      it's moving us to a steady state or degrowth economy

                      It would only be there as a reserve for dry years (when hydro dams are not providing the usual power generation). It would not add to normal year capacity.

                    • weka []

                      Really? Is the government planning to tell people they can’t have more power?

                      Obviously there is a relationship between demand and low hydro lake levels and the need for more power.

                      Steady state in this context means we build the storage and we reduce demand for power. Not build the storage and pretend we don’t live in an economy that is increasing demand.

                • Pat

                  It is also designed to balance the grid due to increased renewables….without balance the grid goes down.

                  The options to balance that intermittence are limited and simply increasing capacity does not solve the problem.

                  All the options are expensive….though how expensive will never be known until delivery.

            • Incognito 3.1.3.2.1.2

              Surely not the same power companies of which large stakes were flogged off by John Key and his merry band? I wonder who the current shareholders are and how they voted in GE-2023.

              • Jack

                I wonder who the current shareholders are

                No need to be in the dark. This information is freely available in their annual report on each company’s website. Not hard.

                • Incognito

                  Don’t be a disingenuous troll.

                  • Jack

                    You asked the question. I gave you the answer. Problem?

                    • Incognito

                      'Twas a 2-part rhetorical question and only a dim-witted troll would take it as an excuse to troll.

                      Any sales of state assets would likely be to mum and dad investors, Prime Minister John Key says.

                      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3732963/SOEs-to-be-sold-to-mum-and-dad-Kiwis-says-Key

                      You asserted that these investors can be found in the respective Annual Reports, which is misleading, at best, so you may want to correct your faux pas and apologise. And while you’re at it, you may want to include information on how the(se) shareholders voted in the latest General Election.

                    • Jack []

                      I suggest it’s you who need to apologise. But you won’t. Shareholder disclosures for the electricity companies are required and have been for decades under the Companies Act 1993. It’s also a requirement under the NZX listing rules.

                    • Incognito []

                      Cool, then you won’t have any trouble linking to a list of all the shareholders of one of those companies.

                      And humour me, what should I apologise for?

                    • Jack []

                      You want to know how the voted at the last election? The largest shareholder is the government. Ask the Labour minister then responsible how the voted.

                    • Incognito []

                      More disingenuous trolling; a troll on a roll.

                    • Jack []

                      If you call talking if fact rather than ignorance trolling , I plead guilty your high reverence.

                      [Where is your link to a list of individual shareholders?

                      Despite several clear warnings, incl. a Mod note on 19 Oct, you continue trolling and showing blatant disrespect for others on this site. Since you’re pleading guilty, don’t act surprised when I hand down your sentence – Incognito]

                    • Incognito []

                      Mod note

                    • Jack []

                      Sorry your fucking thick.

                      Ive told you how and where to get this information, including why this is legally required to be disclosed.

                      There are many many electricity companies in New Zealand.

                      Which one would you specifically like more info on?

                    • Incognito []

                      See my comment at 7:33 pm. A list from any of those companies will do if you wish to keep your commenting privileges here at all. You claimed it’s easy to find because of legal disclosure requirements and all that. I’d suggest that you won’t be providing anything, because you can’t – you’re talking out of your arse aka you’re trolling. You may want to refresh your obviously short memory and go back to my rhetorical question (for your convenience: https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-09-12-2023/#comment-1980275).

                    • roblogic

                      Bradford's reforms were a bloody stupid idea back in 1998 and all the evidence was against it. But National ploughed ahead anyway with their ideological fantasies, and the Kiwi consumer got shafted. SOP for the Gnats.

                      D, Kalderimis: PURE IDEOLOGY: THE "OWNERSHIP SPLIT" OF POWER COMPANIES IN THE 1998 ELECTRICITY REFORMS (wgtn.ac.nz)

                • Drowsy M. Kram

                  This information is freely available in their annual report on each company’s website. Not hard.

                  I'd like to know roughly what proportion of the 51% of asset sale shares are still in Kiwi hands – see Blazer @7:43 pm. Not hard?

                  Asset sales bring in less than cost of tax cuts to top 10%
                  [2 Dec 2013]

                  Asset sales cost hits $1 billion [24 Feb 2016]
                  Every year since National’s asset sales, New Zealanders are losing out on millions of dollars that are going to private investors instead,” Green Party energy spokesperson Gareth Hughes said.

                  With the cost of asset sales tipping over a billion dollars, it’ll only be a few more years before the total cost is more than the asset sales raised – after that, there will be an ongoing net loss to New Zealand.

              • SPC

                I voted Green. The dividends are much better, even now, than bank term deposits.

              • Blazer

                Millions of shares were sold to offshore investors.

                Yes some Kiwi 'mum and dad' investors bought shares…that was part of the 'justification'.

          • SPC 3.1.3.2.2

            That's funny coz it's a dam held in reserve for dry years and generates power like any other dam.

        • weka 3.1.3.3

          we can't triple our energy production, and there's not much point given the limits of growth and nature. We live on a finite planet, best we get used to it now while we still have some choices.

          Fortunately we have alternatives. Public transpower, relocalising economies, creating urban villaged, relocalising food and many other things.

          We don't need to use the amount of energy we do, we are just habituated to it.

        • Chess Player 3.1.3.4

          Yes, Lake Onslow, but it wasn’t a confirmed project as such yet.

          Just one of the many infrastructure projects around the country that was log jammed in consultation.

  4. Stephen D 4

    “A historic Waitangi Tribunal report expected to call for the return of all Crown-owned land across much of Northland will be handed over to the country's largest iwi this morning.

    The almost 2000-page stage 2 report of Te Paparahi o Te Raki, also known as the Northland Inquiry, details land loss, military conflict and Treaty breaches suffered by Ngāpuhi between 1840 and 1900.”

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/te-manu-korihi/504282/waitangi-tribunal-to-present-historic-report-into-land-loss-treaty-breaches-suffered-by-ngapuhi

    It will be fascinating to see how the new government handles this.

  5. SPC 5

    This is an interesting statement about the Labour Party, from its own leader. That it will not be driven to the left by the election defeat in 2023.

    The Labour Party will not be driven to the left by October's election loss, leader Chris Hipkins says.

    Hipkins said the election result came about because of the mood that "people were looking for a change" and it "wasn't necessarily a policy-driven vibe".

    "I think it was a reflection of the fact New Zealanders have had a tough time with COVID and cost of living and a whole lot of other things and were just looking for something different."

    The other things that are not to be named are Labour being seen as pro Maori and the Kiwi not iwi 2005 reprise this time came to bite.

    But that is because the "left wing" impulse is to confront inequality and injustice and seek to do better. However the three headed hydra managed to create a climate of fear and insecurity around "Maori privilege" and this added to a post COVID cloud exacerbated by rising costs.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/12/election-2023-labour-party-won-t-be-driven-left-after-loss-chris-hipkins-says.html

    I suspect what he has overlooked, both before and now after the election, is the necessity to provide hope.

    Agreeing with the Greens 3% rent increase cap and placing 5% windfall profits tax on major banks to finance an increase to IETC would have given more working class people confidence they would get by.

    It might have made for a close contest. Probably still a losing one given the NZF role as conduit for majoritarian conservatives.

    In that sense there is a positive in not losing because of the captains call on the modest wealth tax proposal (as per DP and GR). Only losing left wing votes to Greens and TPM.

    But the future of Labour is in stating the obvious, 35 of 36 OECD nations have either a CGT or estate tax or both. That is not left wing, that is the mainstream of the first world.

    A modest wealth tax is a CGT and estate tax in one – where it only applies in the top 10% level of wealth in the society.

    • +100 on the Wealth Tax SPC.

      CGT is very complicated, slow to start working and produces an unpredictable level of tax receipts.

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 5.2

      Hipkins has to go. I'm so sick of being not given a reason to vote Labour. I guess this means the Greens again.

      • Blazer 5.2.1

        Ardern was 'Tony Blair in..high heels'…Hipkins is' Tony Blair…in…hush puppies'…hopeless!

    • Ad 5.3

      So can anyone tell what kind of country Hipkins wants?

      It's not too much to ask.

    • Anne 5.4

      The other things that are not to be named are Labour being seen as pro Maori and the Kiwi not iwi 2005 reprise this time came to bite.

      I suspect Labour is well aware of those other 'unnamed' causes but have chosen to say nothing about them.

      What Hipkins did say about two weeks ago is that everything is back on the table. I think we can safely assume that a "modest" CGT type tax is going to be back on the table – iirc ten years after it was first mooted under the Cunliffe leadership.

      So Cunliffe just might end up having the last laugh.

    • roblogic 5.5

      Another bad captains call. Kiwis wanted change, Chippy stopped it. Kiwis were tired of identity politics and the cabal of ideologues (in the vein of Dr Elizabeth Kerekere) that appeared to be running things to the detriment (and alienation) of the working class. So what does he do? Nothing. A failure to identify the actual problems, again.

      Hipkins keeps pumping the brakes. We need a few basic reforms to make Aotearoa a "kinder" place again, instead of its current sorry state as a playground for the 1% and screw the rest.

    • roblogic 5.6

      One tax that had potential to make a real difference was Robbo's "Closing the loophole" tax on negatively geared property investments. That was one of the first things on the Nats' chopping block.

  6. SPC 7

    What to do when the lower rate of nicotine results in less use and lower tax revenues?

    Germany to grow local: Germany’s centre-Green coalition government has also agreed on several changes to their cannabis legislation. The proposals are now expected to be enacted in two parts: legalisation of adult use and home growing from March or April 2024, and the licensing of cultivation associations in July.

    USA

    Martha Stewart “I was an early adopter of CBD and have become an advocate because I’ve experienced first-hand the benefits of adding it to my health and wellness routine”

    Where cannabis has been made legal, the biggest growth in use has been with seniors. Some have rediscovered cannabis they long ago stopped using, while others have been turned on to the wellness benefits of CBD and THC. Latest figures show more than ten percent of older Americans have used cannabis in the past year.

    A legalisation or full on decriminalisation would generate revenue

    cannabis legalisation would generate $1 billion in tax revenue and 3000 legit jobs.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/12/09/marijuana-media-auckland-j-day-cannabis-taxes-and-worldwide-weed/

    In addition to the existing medicinal marijuana regime, legal possession (up to maximum amounts) and licensed growing of low THC product product for personal use and commercial supply.

    https://cannaflower.com/low-thc-cannabis-popular/

  7. SPC 8

    It seems the country has come to the town.

    5 councillors claim the finding that they were in breach of their code of practice was only because the Mayor and Council hired a partisan lawyer/shark.

    The review's findings were councillors Calvert, Young, Chung and Pannett breached the code by failing to observe confidentiality when they responded to media inquiries.

    Randle and Young breached the code by failing to show respect to other councillors when they made comments casting aspersions on the actions and motivations of fellow councillors who could not speak out in reply.

    Chung, Calvert and Young breached the code by criticising council staff in public statements.

    As surprising number of these (but not any of the others) made comments about the Mayor's drinking and suggested she resign.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/301023940/five-wellington-councillors-breached-code-of-conduct-investigation-finds

  8. georgecom 9

    The Epsom seat deal where ACT got a free pass from National for years. I started thinking, what benefit have the voters of that electorate got from the deal having Seymour as their MP over Paul Goldsmith. Goldsmith being told he cannot campaign for the seat but instead he has to sit back and pretend he is fine with Seymour taking what would naturally be his seat. Must privately be quite humiliating for him to watch Seymour suck John Key even if he publicly says he is ok with it. That aside though, the benefits to Epsom voters. Someone feel free to add if I have overlooked anything.

    Charter schools – which made little if any difference to education but added costs to the education system

    3 strikes law – which made little if any difference to crime rates but added extra costs

    A euthanasia law – which might be beneficial for people who want to do so, but very very very very very very minute in comparison to big issues the country is facing.

    plus the tens of thousands of dollars payable to Seymour as ACT leader, and often only MP, and his party leaders budget over paying Goldsmith as an MP.

    Seems like Epsom got a pretty crap deal and frankly it has cost NZ millions more dollars than it could have. A case it seems, with ACT wanting to cut government costs, of doing what I say not what I do.

  9. Ad 10

    Shoutout to Sanctuary for an awesome long lunch thankyou.

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