Open mike 10/04/2016

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, April 10th, 2016 - 83 comments
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83 comments on “Open mike 10/04/2016 ”

  1. Tony Veitch (not the partner-bashing 3rd rate broadcaster) 1

    Satire to start Sunday morning.

    “John here, darling.”

    “Why John, it’s not like you to ring up in the middle of a working day. Is anything wrong?”

    “Yes, Bronagh, there is something wrong. There’s been a massive leak of confidential papers from one of those law firms in Panama. You know what I mean, they arrange safe places for millions of dollars to avoid paying tax.”

    “Of course I know what you mean. Are we exposed?”

    “That’s just it, I’m not sure. You know what my memory is! Look, I can’t do this from here, will you give _____________ (a lawyer) a ring just to make sure we didn’t have any dealings with Mossack Fonesca.”

    —————————————————————————————————
    “Bronagh here, John.”

    “Yes, yes, I know it’s you. What did you find?”

    “We have had no dealings with Mossack Fonesca at all.”

    “Well, that’s a relief. I can take the moral high ground here without lying and without fear of our name coming to light.”

    “Yes, you do that so well, dearest. But Johnny, what about members of your cabinet?”

    “Heh, heh, that’s a thought. I wonder if ‘Crusher’ is involved?”

    “But Johnny, it won’t look good, will it.”

    “No, as usual, you’re right, Bronagh. Well, nothing to see here, move on folks, eh? New Zealand is not a tax haven, hey? Just deny it until the fuss dies down.”

    “Yes, that’s the line to take.”

  2. Jenny 2

    John Key’s real legacy

    Radio NZ

    New Zealand a very nice place for rich criminals

    @4:55 Minutes:

    “We found pedophiles in the data, people, bad people, really bad people. We found mafia figures. Not just from Italy, but from Japan from America from everywhere, and they were convicted people.”

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201796260

    @02:07 Minutes:

    “In Uganda a company that wanted to sell a prospective oil field, paid Mossback Fonseca to help it avoid $400 million in taxes. It was simple paperwork. The company’s address was changed from one tax haven to another.

    In a country where one in three people live on less than a dollar twenty-five a day, $400 million dollars represents more than the government’s annual health budget.

    Uganda spent years in court trying to force the company to pay its taxes, meanwhile a hospital in the shadow of the oil field lacked funds for even the most basic equipment. Patients slept on floors, they were asked to bring their own medical supplies, like sterile gloves and cotton balls…..”

    http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11616609

    I wonder; If this is the same oil company “owned” by the shell company that is registered in New Zealand, which is implicated in fixing and bribery for the oil companies?


    “Unaoil bribery scandal: New Zealand shell company linked to Unaoil scandal”

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/78436709/new-zealand-shell-company-linked-to-unaoil-global-oil-industry-bribery-scandal

  3. Jenny 3

    National: Making New Zealand a protected sanctuary for Mossack Fonesca and Unaoil

    The party that has the following screen shot on their election hoardings, will win the election for the opposition.

    http://img.newstalkzb.co.nz/media/9255884/planet-key-screenshot-supplied.jpg?mode=crop&width=675&height=379&quality=80&scale=both

  4. Draco T Bastard 4

    Unfit Bits: How to hack your fitness data

    In a perfect world, we’d all walk 10,000 steps a day.

    Probably not actually. Excessive exercise is bad for you.

    “About a year ago we were both in New York City and we noticed that many insurance companies were advertising new programs where they would offer their customers discounts if they wore a Fitbit that was freely provided, and if they logged a certain amount of steps per day,” Ms Brain said.
    Witness the fitness

    “Usually the aim is to do 10,000 steps per day. And this would get you a few hundred dollars off your annual insurance bill.”

    Ms Brain and her colleague found this concerning.

    Very concerning. Both for peoples health and their privacy. These sorts of policies by health insurers will push more of this:

    Often, compulsive exercise starts with healthy intentions. One exercises for pleasure, or stress relief, or the endorphin rush, or just to feel better. Over time, one has to do more to get the same positive boost. Before long, it’s never enough. Exercise starts ruling life.

  5. saveNZ 5

    With Saudi and Russian ties, Clinton machine’s tentacles are far reaching, according to Panama Papers
    The Podesta Group, a lobbying firm headed by Clinton operatives, has made a pretty penny working for Saudi & Russia

    http://www.salon.com/2016/04/08/with_saudi_and_russian_ties_clinton_machines_tentacles_are_far_reaching_according_to_panama_papers/

  6. Draco T Bastard 6

    Government dishes out big bucks to ‘struggling’ petroleum industry for conference

    There had previously been two petroleum conferences, one hosted by the government and one by the industry. That was not practical, so they had been combined – and the government agreed to subsidise the industry conference. “So the Government has probably decreased it’s funding for these conferences,” Madgwick said.

    The new combined conference allowed a meeting of the minds for both industry and government to discuss regulations and possible improvements, he said.

    Oh, great, the governments paying to be lobbied.

    No wonder we’re going to hell in a hand-basket.

    • Jenny 6.1

      All this corporate welfare, and more, ensures that Per capita, New Zealand is the world leader in subsidising fossil fuel companies.

      Corporate welfare and international corporate tax fraud, as well as inaction on climate change are this government’s weak points.

      The opposition need to take advantage of these weak points and go in for the kill.

  7. whatisis 7

    https://consortiumnews.com/2016/04/07/a-media-unmoored-from-facts/

    Mainstream U.S. journalism has completely lost its way, especially in dealing with foreign policy issues where bias now overwhelms any commitment to facts, a dangerous development, writes Robert Parry.

    Article and comments very good. Something Guyon and Susie from Morning Report should read re their question over why ppl don’t trust the media anymore.

  8. JanM 8

    Yea – Mihi’s back!!

  9. Penny Bright 9

    In my view, there are a number of issues relating to Auckland Council’s purchase of the ASB building which are scandalous, and help reinforce what a disaster this Auckland ‘Supercity’ has been for the majority of Auckland citizens and ratepayers.

    When were the public ever consulted on Auckland Council’s purchase of the ASB building?

    What was wrong with the ‘custom built’ Auckland Council Civic Building for Council staff?

    (What’s happened to the Auckland Council Civic Building – my understanding is that it is sitting there empty, and has been for some months?)

    Where is the evidence of the ‘due diligence’ carried out before the purchase of the ASB building?

    Who carried out the ‘due diligence’?

    Who actually made the decision to purchase the ASB building?

    For what reason(s)?

    Were there any ‘conflicts of interest’ between those involved in purchasing the ASB and those who owned the ASB building?

    How does the purchase of the ASB building, represent the much-vaunted ‘efficiency’ savings / ‘economies of scale’ that was purportedly a major reason used to ‘sell’ this ‘Supercity’ (for the 1%)?

    Upon whom can the public rely for a full, thorough and independent inquiry into these matters?

    http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11619820

    “The cost of cladding repairs at Auckland Council’s Albert St headquarters has blown out from $4 million to an estimated $31m, according to a confidential report.

    The huge bill for essential repairs to heavy granite slabs on the 31-storey building will be discussed by councillors behind closed doors on Tuesday.

    Ratepayers have already paid $128.5m to buy and fit out the 25-year-old building, described as robust and structurally sound with good bones when it was bought in 2012.

    About $4m was set aside for stonework issues picked up during due diligence. A report by the engineering firm GHD in November found there was no definitive evidence of imminent collapse, but clearly cause for concern and a high potential risk of a stone panel falling from height.
    ……”
    ____________________

    Penny Bright
    2016 Auckland Mayoral candidate.

  10. What does Corin Dann do on a Sunday morning? Hit the snooze alarm as few times, crawl out of bed, leisurely turn up to work and ask questions prepared for him by TVNZ staffers?
    The interview with Winston Peters was appalling. It’s not as though information isn’t out there about the Panama Papers – a search of youtube finds docos by France 24, Australian 4 Corners, ICIJ, BBC, US PBS. Foreign news outlets that have been involved in this for a year describe us as a tax haven. There is more going on than Key/English are admitting to. Quoting Key soundbites to Peter’s was just sloppy.
    Ffs, if he had just bothered to watch yesterday’s The Nation’s interview with Peter Bale, chief executive of the Center for Public Integrity / ICIJ, he would know that NZ has only been given the once over in the latest releases but there is more in depth shit coming down the pipe.
    Why did he do such a bad job given he had interviewed John Christianson who said NZ was a shady dealer in this? Why did he insist on Winston Peters putting up the evidence saying he was holding Winston to account? Who us holding Dann to account? Why does not not just do his job?
    Congrats The Nation, at least you bothered to go out wide and avoid the wide boys in mid-field and go to the ICIJ direct.

  11. sabine 11

    want to observe rising sealevels as viewed from space.
    well now you can.

    https://sealevel.nasa.gov/

    thanks Nasa.

  12. joe90 12

    FJK is relaxed about the use of secret trusts because many people crooks and money launderers use trusts for all manner of things.

    The Paris-based club of mostly rich nations is developing a global transparency initiative to crack down on tax haven secrecy. Most havens have agreed to participate and from 2017 will start to share financial data automatically so that each can tax its taxpayers appropriately. But there are recalcitrants. Panama is refusing to participate seriously. Pascal Saint-Amans, the OECD tax chief, calls it a jurisdiction “that welcomes crooks and money launderers”.

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d01062a0-fa71-11e5-8f41-df5bda8beb40.html#axzz45NWMpFFf

    • joe90 12.1

      More people using trusts for all manner of things.
      /

      The documents also pull back the curtain on hundreds of details about how former CIA gun-runners and contractors use offshore companies for personal and private gain. Further, they illuminate the workings of a host of other characters who used offshore companies during or after their work as spy chiefs, secret agents or operatives for the CIA and other intelligence agencies.

      http://www.newsobserver.com/news/nation-world/world/article70044452.html

  13. Peroxide Blonde 13

    That ABC bootboy and bag carrier Clayton Cosgrove is not standing for Parliament again.
    Good riddance to a nasty piece of work.

    Who will Grant Robertson use now to scurry around the Press Gallery bad mouthing colleagues?

  14. Bill 14

    Wyoming makes it 7 in a row and 8 out of the last 9 for Sanders.

    Even the Guardian, that just the other day had a vid of Sanders challenging Clinton’s qualification for President sans all fucking context, is now publishing articles that aren’t complete hatchet jobs. I mean, it’s an opinion piece rather than a piece of reportage following editorial lines, but still – it’s a start.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/09/bernie-sanders-wins-wyoming-seventh-state-unstoppable-new-york-primary-next

    • RedLogix 14.1

      The Guardian Gatekeeper.

      I follow it pretty closely and the methods they use are blatantly obvious once you start looking for them. For instance Sanders will win a primary, but is lucky to get one sentence while the rest of the article gushes on about Trump and Clinton.

      Or they’ll run ‘poison the well’ opinion articles that look like they’re about Sanders, but are really used to damn with faint praise, derail, or dismiss in a slightly sneering tone all the ‘fanatics’ who support him.

      Same tactics used on Corbyn.

      The good news is that judging from their comments sections a lot more people are awake to these tricks. They’ve been way over-exposed.

      • Bill 14.1.1

        Well yeah. The editorial piece that shows up next to the opinion piece I linked is headed (short version) “Sanders wins, but…”

        Comments sections on newspaper after newspaper are flying in the face of the reporting on Sanders and Clinton.

        And yes, the Guardian will always side with the establishment in the final analysis. Always.

      • Paul 14.1.2

        The Guardian is just part of the establishment’s system.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGqi-k213eE

  15. ScottGN 15

    Some small consolation insofar as it’s the least reliable of the major polls but whichever way you slice and dice it the Colmar Brunton is a shocker.
    Anybody still think Labour pondering incoherently about a policy as complex as UBI and then letting the government dump on it from a great height is a great idea?

    • Paul 15.1

      It’s no wonder….

      1. The MSM doesn’t inform the NZ people. Ask your average NZers about many current events stories and they are woefully ignorant about what’s going on in their own country and the world.
      2. 30 years of neo-liberal poison has done a lot of damage and a lot of people only care for themselves. They only realise the benefit of society when it’s too late and they’ve been thrown on the scrapheap.
      3. The NZ Labour Party does not offer an alternative to neo-liberalism. Read my lips, Labour Party. “We apologise unreservedly for the damage we wrought on New Zealand working people when we unleashed neo-liberalism on the country. We are a socialist party and will go back to representing our people.”

      • JanM 15.1.1

        I agree – I think they are trying to change hearts slowly, It doesn’t work like that – they need to apologise just as you say.
        If my long term partner, whom I trusted, goes reeling off and has an affair with some sex pot who turns out to be all fur coat and no knickers, am I going to accept him just sliding back into my life as though it didn’t happen? Abject apology is definitely called for, and then the rebuilding of trust, if that’s possible

    • maui 15.2

      I think they need to be pushing not pondering the UBI for the next 18 months, voters need to have their heads around it by the next election. Young and old will be interested in voting for it. It may be that economic conditions just aren’t bad enough for it to take hold in the middle classes though, Labour might have been a bit early on it.

  16. James 16

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/poll-flag-flop-fails-dent-governments-popularity

    Labour and little take a hammering in the latest poll.

    Winston will be happy however – he has over taken little in the preferred pm figures.

    I’m guessing a lot on here thought that the flag loss was going to hurt key. Seems like many read that wrong as well.

    National continue to head towards another term.

    • Paul 16.1

      30 years of neo-liberal poison has done a lot of damage and a lot of people only care for themselves. They only realise the benefit of society when it’s too late and they’ve been thrown on the scrapheap.

      I sense you are one of these Galt-like creatures.

    • ianmac 16.2

      So Key is on 37% preferred now. Wasn’t he up in the 50-60% lastime. A bit sad if the people are getting a bit tired of him..

      • Colonial Viper 16.2.1

        Labour gains nothing from National’s increasing weakness. In the new politics, people want real alternatives to what the incumbents are proposing. Not me too acts.

        Labour could open up real ground between themselves and National very easily. Too bad they are preoccupied with trying to convince a neoliberal press that they will be a credible (neoliberal) government in waiting.

    • sabine 16.3

      could you link to the actual poll and the question asked and the people polled?

      who was asked
      % of likely voter
      % of members of either party
      % of age groups
      % of rural vs urban

      really the blerb in the fishwrap is pretty meaningless if it actually does not show how an who was polled.

      • Colonial Viper 16.3.1

        There is only one poll which actually matters. Until then its clear that either the polls are biased against Labour. Or the reporting of the polls are biased against Labour. Or both.

        Clearly thats the real problem here, because Labour’s actual support in the community is definitely much higher than this. We all know it is.

        • ScottGN 16.3.1.1

          Haha. You nearly had me for a moment.

        • sabine 16.3.1.2

          This poll has got nothing to doe with labour voters, it has got to do with

          a. what question were asked
          b. who was asked
          b1. what age groups
          b2. Gender breakdown
          b3. Location – rural vs urban
          c. likely voter
          c1. voted previously
          c2. will vote again
          d. income group
          e. property owner

          all of these things would put the result into context.
          You are boring CV. So very very boring.

          • Jenny Kirk 16.3.1.2.1

            Totally agree with you, Sabine.

            For a PM who is so embarrassing, who is clearly a sleazebag with women/girls, who has done NOTHING for the ordinary New Zealander, who just loves to play around with the big wealthy VIPs, and who deals in corrupt behaviours, and who has started to get booed in public, there must be something screwed in the way the questions of polls are asked, for his seemingly continuing “popularity”.

      • ScottGN 16.3.2

        Polling methodology is not the problem here.

        • sabine 16.3.2.1

          actually yes it is.
          Polls are meaningless if you can’t figure out how the result was achieved.
          I don’t care much about polls generally speaking, but if they are used to uphold a result i would like to know how that result was achieved.

          example.
          100 National voters are asked and 50% say the PM is good as and 50% say Labour sucks. Is that a good result for the PM? Is it a bad result for Labour?
          50 National voters are asked and 50 other voters are asked and 50% say the PM is good, and a further 30% say Labour sucks. is that a good result for the PM is it a bad result for Labour?

          How the result was achieved in important. And i don’t actually care who wins in these polls, as our estimed CV said upstairs only one poll that matters and that would be the voting booth. But in the meantime, i would like a bit more meat with my polls. Thank eew/

          • swordfish 16.3.2.1.1

            Colmar Brunton are by far the most open about their methodology. Much better than the other main Public Pollsters. They produce a full report in a way that the others don’t.

            The question Colmar Brunton ask (after a brief intro outlining the two votes under MMP) is: “Firstly, thinking about the Party Vote, which is for a political party – Which political Party would you vote for ? (If the reply is Don’t Know then they ask the follow-up question: “Which one would you be most likely to vote for ?” That pushes those mildly leaning one way to make a definite choice, with the remainder becoming the true Undecideds).

            All Pollsters weight their data to align with NZ’s demographics (via Statistics New Zealand). Those respondents who indicate (in an initial question) that they’re either fairly or very unlikely to vote are excluded from the final results as are the Undecideds and those who Refuse to answer.

            • Colonial Viper 16.3.2.1.1.1

              sabine is convinced that bad polling methodology is at the core of Labour’s low numbers.

              Please don’t disabuse her of that truth.

  17. James 17

    “But there are plenty of challenges for Mr Little who after more than a year in the job is now going backwards.”

    So what can little do to stop his backward slide? Does he have anything or do you think he’s just hoping Key slips up on something? (Which isn’t working too well for him so far).

  18. Colonial Viper 18

    GR2020. It’s a foregone conclusion now.

    • ScottGN 18.1

      You may be right.

    • ScottGN 18.2

      Mind you, heading into the recent Canadian Federal election many of the commentators had written off Justin Trudeau (his trajectory in the polls was not that dissimilar to Little’s) and were casting around for the next Liberal Leader. Look what happened there?

      • Colonial Viper 18.2.1

        Yes, massive political turnarounds do happen. But in this case, what would be the point? And I think the electorate has figured that out as well. Why vote light blue when you can have the real thing.

        • Paul 18.2.1.1

          Offering a real alternative is what is necessary.

          • Colonial Viper 18.2.1.1.1

            that would seem to be politics 101. But in the Thorndon Bubble professional political set, its still all about the narcissism of minor (miniscule) differences and waiting for the ‘tide to turn.’

            • Paul 18.2.1.1.1.1

              Do they not see what happened to the Scottish Labour Party when it just copied Cameron’s austerity?

              • Colonial Viper

                this is a political crew who sincerely believes that voters have forgiven/forgotten Rogernomics. That middle class swing voters in households earning $80K to $120K pa are the most important voters in the nation.

                • Paul

                  I take your word for it and am completely amazed they are so out of touch. More and more people are suffering from the effects of neo-liberalism ( also known as ‘Rogernomics in NZ). Indeed, we have also endured disaster capitalism in Christchurch, as outlined by Naomi Klein in ‘Shock Doctrine.’
                  The country has been sold.
                  Our jobs have been off shored.
                  Large corporate ship of billions of untaxed profits annually.
                  We are over $100 billion in debt.

                  Despite 8 years of extreme right wing economic prescriptions, the political party supposedly representing the workers of the country refuses to offer a coherent alternative vision.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    they disowned the workers of the country a long time ago. The workers, who used to give Labour a membership roll in the hundreds of thousands, have long returned the favour.

                    • Paul

                      We need a new socialist party.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Although it provides some vital stepping stones, socialism is not prepared for the demanding and unique requirements of the 21st century situation .

                    • Paul

                      We need a party ready to face the challenges of the 21st century by cooperating not competing, secondly by working together, not fighting each other and thirdly by living in balance with the Earth, not exploiting it.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Exactly.

                • RedLogix

                  Or another way of looking at it: where is Australia and New Zealand’s equivalent of Corbyn or Sanders?

                  Actually let me drill into that deeper. Here in Aus Labour is polling slightly ahead of the Coalition. And that is with Bill Shorten as Leader. And I’d suggest that the space between Shorten and Little isn’t so very much. So why is the NZLP trailing the US, Canadian, UK and Aus experience so very badly?

                  One answer is the ongoing failure of the NZLP to bury the ghost of the 4th Lab govt. For people of my generation it’s still a live issue.

                  Another is our god-awful media. I’ll say it again, even here in Aus the difference is remarkable. Here I can read a balanced picture in a way that is utterly missing from the public space in NZ.

                  Another is that we’ve been importing lots of wealthy people who vote National.

                  Another is simply that we no longer really believe in ourselves as a nation anymore. We’ve been persuaded to stop believing in our better selves.

                  Another is the withdrawal of the left from the internationalist, global space. More than any other Western nation, we’ve been run over by the neo-liberal world order.

                  And finally the left in NZ remains divided. Until the Greens and Labour start behaving like they could actually run a proper govt together, then no-one is going to give them the chance.

                  • Paul

                    Excellent synopsis.
                    And just as an example, here is how both countries looked at the Panama Papers.
                    Here there has been no proper journalism, while Australia ran this story.

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1-JCf1P8o8

                    • RedLogix

                      Yes I watched that the other night. Look at the depth of research in it, and how much time and travel budget was given to this; over many months at least.

                      Compare and contrast with our sniveling hacks who weren’t even allowed a sniff of the story.

                  • miravox

                    ” we no longer really believe in ourselves as a nation anymore. We’ve been persuaded to stop believing in our better selves.”

                    This.

                    And not in a false flag patriotism kind of way. In a way that makes sense of our belonging with a group of human beings in a society first, rather than primarily as subjects in a win or lose economy.

    • swordfish 18.3

      When Farrar blogs it the moment it comes out … you just know it aint gonna be great news for Labour !

      First time since May 2015 that the Govt’s led the Oppo in a Colmar Brunton. (Starkly contrasts with the latest March 2016 Roy Morgan which bucked its usual Govt-friendly results by giving the Oppo a rare lead).

      Colmar Brunton
      ………………………Oppo…………Govt…………Diff

      July 2015……………53……………..48…………..+ 5
      Sep 2015………… …51…………….48…………..+ 3
      Oct 2015…………….52…………….48……………+ 4
      Feb 2016…………….50…………….48……………+ 2
      April 2016…………..47…………….52…………….- 5

      One and only bright spot ? Key down slightly in Preferred PM to 39% (Equal Lowest rating in a Colmar Brunton since becoming PM … but not much compensation – esp with Little down too)

      * 2 point rise in the Undecideds – but that’s nowhere near enough to account for the swing.

  19. Jenny 19

    Labour MP Su’a William Sio’s Climate Change Taskforce tour of Tuvalu and Kiribati

    “In Kiribati and Tuvalu, the future is now,” Su’a William Sio

    Mr Sio’s trip is an interesting move by Labour which has been accused of taking the Pacific vote for granted.

    But it also points up what is a growing foreign policy concern for New Zealand which has taken to underpinning its foreign policy, particularly its role at the United Nations, with a sort of self-appointed role as a voice for small island developing states.

    Mr Sio believes that there is some unease among Pacific nations about New Zealand’s initial reluctance to commit to tougher greenhouse gas emission targets at last year’s Paris conference on climate change and also its apparent reluctance to confront the impact of rising sea levels here. RICHARD HARMAN

    Labour MP Sua William Sio is calling on the Government to review its immigration policies for people from Tuvalu and Kiritbati as rising sea levels are already forcing people in both island groups to flea outlying islands for the main island….

    …..Currently New Zealand has an immigration quota of 75 for Tuvalu and Kiribati.

    (Compare this to the unlimited access granted by New Zealand to the majority white, settler country of Australia.)

    “On Tuvalu there’s a total population of 12,000 and 6000 of them live on Funafuti (the main island) and there’s just not enough room,” SU’A WILLIAM SIO.

    “Notwithstanding that, I think that for a future Government which wants to stand and support the Pacific, you have to plan for that emergency and that disaster, but hoping that the disaster doesn’t happen and allow for the gradual movement of people.” SU’A WILLIAM SIO

    http://politik.co.nz/en/content/Environment/593/What-happens-when-the-sea-rises-Sua-William-Sio-Kiribati-Tuvalu-rising-sea-levels.htm

    • Jenny 19.1

      A new Web portal developed by NASA, gives researchers, decision makers and the public a resource to stay up to date with the latest developments and scientific findings on sea level rise.

      https://sealevel.nasa.gov/

      https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/40

      • Jenny 19.1.1

        NASA projections for sea level rise forecast the disappearance of the Tuvalu and Kiribati beneath the waves by 2100.

        Within our grandchildren’s life times these island nations will be gone.

        ….the median projection of the SEMs, (semi-empirical models) is about 0.75 meters by century’s end, and about one meter for scenario RCP 8.5. At the high end of the confidence intervals (95%), sea level reaches above 1.5 meters for the latter scenario, mostly based on the works of Rahmstorf and of Jevrejeva. Another study of modeling reliability, in which Rahmstorf et al. performed an extensive analysis of their SEMs [ [Rahmstorf et al., 2012], concluded that a rise of about one meter, produced by a warming of 1.8 degrees Celsius, represented a robust result, derived from published data and their model.

        Since the publication of AR5, newer ice-sheet observations also are suggestive of the higher values for sea level rise.

        But this is not the full story and these nations could go under water even sooner.
        NASA studies measure mean and average global sea level rise. But the sea is not flat, and there are regional and seasonal differences that can either magnify or lessen these global effects from one season to another, and even from one decade to another, and in one region and another.

        The tropical Pacific Ocean isn’t flat like a pond. Instead, it regularly has a high side and a low side. Natural cycles such as El Niño and La Niña events cause this sea level seesaw to tip back and forth, with the ocean near Asia on one end and the ocean near the Americas on the other. But over the last 30 years, the seesaw’s wobbles have been more extreme, causing variations in sea levels up to three times higher than those observed in the previous 30 years….

        A new NASA/university study has found the differing alignments of two separate climate cycles could be causing these intensifying swings, which occur on top of a global rise in sea level due to melting ice sheets and warming oceans….

        From 1990 to 2000, the magnitude of these sea level swings averaged about 6 inches (16 centimeters) – five times the height of global sea level rise* during the same period. Asia is currently on the high side of the sea level seesaw, while coastlines in the Americas as far north as Southern California are benefiting from a lower sea level….

        https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/40

        *My emphasis, Jenny.

        • Jenny 19.1.1.1

          Why are Tuvalu and Kiribati’s very reasonable message calling for emigration to New Zealand on grounds of climate change, and conveyed to us by Su’a William Sio on their behalf, being ignored?

          And why was Su’a William Sio’s Climate Change Taskforce mission ignored by virtually all media outlets and political parties?

          My feeling is that to allow the people of Tuvalu and Kiribati to immigrate to New Zealand on climate change grounds, would be to recognise that there is a problem.

          Recognising climate refugees ,would mean recognising the reality and the full threat posed by climate change itself.

  20. Stuart Munro 21

    Interesting column up from Vernon Small on Stuff – sledging Little – it’s only been up a few hours and the comment balance is unrealistically extreme right – comments are closed of course.

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