Open mike 11/01/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, January 11th, 2023 - 38 comments
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38 comments on “Open mike 11/01/2023 ”

  1. weston 1

    Well good golly miss molly !! What shall we make of the fact that the whole of the Donetsk front line of Ukrainian defense positions have been overrun and the fortress towns of Bakhmut and Soledar are facing encirclement !

    How can this be ??We are continuously told by MSM and by various commenters on TS that Russian forces are demoralised that they are poorly supplied and equipped , that their commanders are shit ,that their forces are tactically inferior , that they are "running out of steam " "running out of ammo " or even just "running "!!

    Perhaps Putin has assumed the 'avatar ' of the evil Sauron and waved his magic wand to change pumpkins into tanks and hoards of mice into fighting soldiers transforming all Russia's woes into victory in an instant !!?

    Or perhaps much of the information coming out of the west via the spin department of the Kiev regime is horseshit !!

    This article appears to contain a fair amount of truth though and has many interesting links within it .

    https://dimitrilascaris.org/2023/01/02/western-soldiers-reveal-the-sordid-reality-of-the-ukraine-war/

    • Barfly 1.1

      Any chance of buying some of what your smoking?

    • Cricklewood 1.2

      Sounds impressive until you realize Soledar is smaller than Feilding.

      Basically they’ve managed to overrun a village.

      • weston 1.2.1

        Soledar is a very important perhaps vital part of Ukrainian defenses in that location it contains the largest salt mines in the world apparently .According to the latest military updates some Ukrainian soldiers are trapped in the last mine still to be taken and are reportedly cut off .I guess if the Ukr forces cannot escape somehow through the apparent labyrinth of tunnels we might see another Mariupol style surrender soon .

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soledar_Salt_Mine

    • Gosman 1.3

      Bakhmut has not been encircled. Soledar has been largely overrun it is true to state but again it has not been encircled as the Russians have taken ground via costly frontal assaults. The Ukrainian military is still fighting within the urban area of Soledar. Even if the Russians gain complete control over the town it does not mean they have encircled Bakhmut or even made the job of encircling Bakhmut much easier. You don't tend to gain encirclements in warfare in the way the Russians are doing so.

      • weston 1.3.1

        You'll note Gosman i said Bakhmut was facing encirclement and it seems to me that indeed it will be easier to encircle now that it seems Soledar has fallen you only have to look at the maps of the roads and terrain etc in that area to realize that !

        I cant say ive seen any convincing evidence that Russian forces have been doing much "frontal wave "stuff ? i have however seen mountains of evidence attesting to warfare by attrition that is bombarding enemy positions and equipment relentlessly until such time as a weakness develops which is then exploited .Im pretty sure this is the usual and preferred method of engagement throughout this conflict .

        As described by the returned veteran interviewed within the link supplied in my original comment only about 1pc of deaths in this war are from rifles by a country mile the rest are deaths by artillery mortars etc

        • Gosman 1.3.1.1

          It won't be easier to encircle beyond the obvious that taking ANY land around a particular military target makes it "easier" to encircle. It is like stating taking Kherson from the Russian military made it easier for the Ukrainians to take Crimea back.

          • weston 1.3.1.1.1

            What a silly comparison Gosman the distance between Kherson and the border of Crimea is 219 km with the river Dnipro in between whereas the distance between Bakhmut and Soledar is a mere 15km you could walk there in an hour or so !

            • Incognito 1.3.1.1.1.1

              … a mere 15km you could walk there in an hour or so !

              According to Google Maps it is a mere (!) 2 hr 58 min on foot.

              And you accuse others of saying silly stuff!?

              • Francesca

                I don't think Weston is seriously suggesting the Wagnerites will walk the distance.He was using the word "walk"to amplify the difference between 219 kms and 15 kms.And there is a significant difference.More silly to be so literal

                • Incognito

                  It was a silly thing to say to support his silly and vague narrative. Why not use more accurate and truthful arguments to make your point? Why the urge to exaggerate aka amplify and hand wave like an amateur angler who describes the big one that got away? Do Weston and you really think that people cannot tell the difference between 15 and 219 km? Seems that Weston and you don’t care about these things and simply want to score stupid points for the sake of it.

                  • Francesca

                    Well if you want to waste your time rushing to Google maps to prove another commenter "silly"I won't stand in your way.

                    • Incognito

                      I assume that Weston looked it up too yet failed to be even remotely accurate. It took my less than 30 sec to get that info, so hardly a waste of time.

                      Quality of discourse would improve instantly if commenters would stop being too lazy to do some simple & fast fact checking and stick to these facts. Frankly, I couldn’t care less about the distance and/or time, but details are a good way of outing people who have a promiscuous relationship with facts & truth. Generally, those people make up all sorts of BS because they are ignorant and/or have an agenda (and lie about it, as unfaithful cheaters do).

                      For lazy point scoring there is SM and I won’t stand in your way.

                      Toodles.

                  • weston

                    Good grief incog !! i can scarcely believe what im reading ,if you for ex are on one side of auckland and you have to get to the other an the kids go dad how long till we get to uncle dans ?you're gonna say oh an hour or so .If your fortunate enough to have someone cook you dinna an you say how long will it be ?most prob they're gonna say oh 20 mins or so This is commonly how we relate to each other in nz isnt it ??

                    As it happens incog i have done a lot of walking in my life .Once upon a time we all measured distance in miles and i found 30 miles was a fair distance to walk in a day ,occasionally i'd do more and a couple of times up to 45 .In those days 9miles would have been a doodle .Im pretty sure the walk times google puts out for various distances will be based on average times for average people under average conditions so i dont really understand why your getting so nit picky over something thats not finite ??Havnt you ever been tramping incog where you saw a sign that said up to the summit an back 1hr40mins but you just did it in 20 ? I think that would be pretty common if perhaps a bit adolescent maybe !

                    As for all the insinuations about "telling lies ""having an agenda",having a promiscuous relationship with facts and truth "and wierd stuff about "unfaithfull cheaters "??!!wtf !?

                    • Drowsy M. Kram

                      Havnt you ever been tramping incog where you saw a sign that said up to the summit an back 1hr40mins but you just did it in 20 ?

                      Five times faster than the suggested tramping time? Not everyone's that fast – I'd hope such grossly inaccurate tramping advice would be corrected sooner or later.

                    • Incognito

                      For accurate and informed comments about anything military I’d rather rely on commenters such as Scud (https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-11-01-2023/#comment-1929962) than on armchair generals hauled up in their concrete bubbles of ignorance who fire random shots in the dark such as you.

                      You confirm your bigotry by insinuating that you did a 100-min tramp in 20 min and stating “[you] think that would be pretty common”. You are insulting our intelligence with your lack of credibility and sloppiness. BTW, that’s quite a feat for someone who has smoked “for about 40 years” (https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13-01-2018/#comment-1435560) although we should take this with a huge grain of salt too, obviously.

                      As to my ‘insinuations’, you poor reading comprehension shows that you don’t have what it takes to participate in robust debate, and the shoe(s) seems to fit you quite well. Well champ, why don’t you try upping your game?

              • alwyn

                You might not be able to walk that fast but fit, healthy competitive athletes could manage it.

                The World Record for the 20km race walk is currently 1 hour 16 minutes and 36 seconds. At that rate it should be possible to do 15 km in less than an hour.

                Putin probably believes that the Russian army is made up of supermen so he may see 15 km/hour as a fairly normal walking speed.

                Google is working the time out on the basis of normal people, like ourselves, but there are fitter individuals around.

                • Muttonbird

                  As if by magic, Russian man walks 15km in less than an hour…

                  15 km 57:35+ Vladimir Stankin (RUS) 8 Feb 2004 Adler

                  https://athleticsweekly.com/stats/records/world-records-best-performances-mens-race-walking/

                • Incognito

                  Alwyn, your name is not in the record table!? Were you disqualified for arguing about the colour of the starting line and derailing the race?

                  http://www.wellingtonmastersathletics.org.nz/rec/rec_20kmw.html

                • Scud

                  Right I've had a enough of this fucking stupidity!!!

                  15 km in 2.5hrs is doable with full battle order ie Pack 45kg+ & your fighting order aka webbing which weighed 15 kg for Rifleman

                  Machine Gunner, Sig & Grenadier 25kg.

                  Why do I know this? It was a part of my SQN Battle Readiness Training Before our Live Fire Ex: 15km in Full Battle Order to be completed in 2.20hrs- 3hrs.

                  Assualt Cse

                  High Ropes

                  50m fireman's lift & 2 carry 2 jerry cans on the return leg.

                  Your Battle Order is meant to sustain you in Battle Order for 3 Days & your Fighting Order is meant to Sustain you for 24hrs in theory.

                  Soledar is just a pin prick on a bloody map & as some has mentioned the size of Fielding with similar terrain suitable for Defence in Depth funny enough for those who have actually visited Feilding and understand the principal's of Defence in Depth.

                  Is Soledar vital terrain?

                  No

                  Is Soledar vital to the defence Bakhmut no, because Ukraine can still out range out gun the Russians. Where as Russia Soledar to advance onto Bakhmut.

                  That 15 or so Km's as the crow flies between Soledar & Bakhmut is more likely to become one massive Ukrainian DFZ (Defensive Fire Zone) when the poor Russia Squaddie/ Baggie won't be able to take a piss let alone a dump as every piece of terrain, road network etc would be pre registered on the counter battery Fire computer/ maps.

                  In other words the longer Ukraine holds Soledar, it gives them more time prepare the next line of Defence & thence the mad scramble to get last of the civilian population & wounded out of Soledar before the Ukrainian Military HQ decides to DF the place.

                  That folks is Defensive Warfare at its Brutal & Bloodiest way.

                  Ukraine is sucking Russia into a massive Killing Ground. While preserving the bulk of Military Forces for the Spring & Summer Offensives unless Russia over extends themselves like they in the winter of 42/43 in Ukraine during WW2. Where Manstein open them like a can opener & hadn't not been for Hausser & his SS Corps disobedience, it would've got real ugly for the Russians.

                  • lprent

                    Weston is a dimwitted unthinking blowhard who clearly has absolutely no idea about military loads – as scud correctly pointed out.

                    I did a battle efficency more than 45 years ago, and it is etched into my mind still. Walking with a military load is slow and very heavy. You're carrying rifle, ammo, food, webbing, and all of the usual night time gear.

                    In a combat zone, you also do it slowly. And that is if you have a road. As soon as you have farmland then the pace drops to about a tenth of the road walking speed – if you are lucky.

                    Of course it is faster if you have a vehicle. However in a combat zone these days that is a great target.

                    Scud – you forgot the rounds into the target after doing the jauntand then the fireman carry of somone your own weight with all of their kit and weapon. I missed half of my rounds because I was blurring out. Worst shooting I ever did with a rifle.

                    The BE was a real eye opener to me about the effects of exhaustion at age 18.

                    Weston: I find it interesting that the Kremlin itself is refuting the claims of the self-serving dipshit from Wagner who made the claims you are parroting. You really are a good candidate for a brudge sale. Credulous and rather stupid believer in propaganda.

                    • Scud

                      My apologies, your memory is better than mine, yrs of to much Alcohol, sniffing various fumes incl CLP & god knows what else I've done to my body over the last 25+ yrs in uniform 🤣

                      Ah, the NZ Army had a range component which was what 25 or 50m with ex amount of rds on a fig 11 tgt. You certainly had to remember your 4 principals Marksmanship especially the breathing component as that was well in truly shithouse.

                      Thank God, we didn't have do that in the RAAF Ground Defence Mustering, mind you I would've traded the High Ropes for Range Shoot LoL. If there is one thing I hated, it was the high ropes as it totally pointless as the RAAF no longer operated Helicopters.

  2. Stephen D 2

    They couldn’t take Palmerston North, so they went for Fielding!

    • Johnr 2.1

      Ya wouldn't want to take Palmy. It's full of uni students. What the hell are you going to do with them. Be like herding cats.

  3. Incognito 3

    Luxon and farmers’ fibs, but what does he know, as he used to run an airline? And he doesn’t care, anyway, because it feelz good when we/NZ are ranked at the top of the world even if it might not be entirely true and accurate (and temporary).

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/130789439/the-whole-truth-are-new-zealand-farms-the-worlds-greenest

  4. joe90 5

    Ural contracts at a 50% discount will have the Kremlin packing.

    Russia’s flagship oil is selling at less than half international prices — and way below a Group of Seven imposed cap — following sanctions targeting the Kremlin’s revenue from petroleum sales.

    The nation’s Urals grade, a far bigger export stream than any other crude that Russia sells, was $37.80 a barrel at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk on Friday, according to data provided by Argus Media. Global benchmark Brent settled at $78.57 on the same day.

    https://archive.li/iOwmL (Bloomberg}

    • lprent 5.1

      Largely as a result of the insurance costs from what I have been reading in financial news.

      Shippers and customers are having to carry their own liability. That makes it costly to carry because the risks aren' t spread.

      The price is dropping accordingly to accommadate the extra cost. Of course anyone who does have cover one way or another will be creaming it. But they make themselves into people of interest.

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