Open Mike 12/12/2016

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, December 12th, 2016 - 109 comments
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109 comments on “Open Mike 12/12/2016 ”

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  1. Rosemary McDonald 1
    12 December 2016 at 7:27 am

    Yesterday the Herald had Heather DPA wringing her hands over poor middle NZ stuck in traffic agonising over whether they can take the kids on holiday and today we have another Herald reporter telling us that….

    “The first time some 10 to 12-year-olds ever set foot on the beach is when they arrive on a school trip to help clean up the beach.

    Many of the school children who turn up to the annual Love Your Coast Manukau Harbour clean-up event attend schools in South and West Auckland, as well as the Awhitu Peninsula which juts out into the harbour – yet they have never felt the sand between their toes.

    Sustainable Coastlines Charitable Trust New Zealand chief executive Sam Judd said at one event he held, three-quarters of the children had not been to the beach.”

    That was three quarters of the children living in South Auckland HAD NEVER BEEN TO THE BEACH.

    However, before y’all get all gooey over the generosity of Auckland Airport paying for these children from low decile South Auckland schools to go to the beach…it ain’t for sandcastles and a sausage sizzle.

    No, no…the poor kids are put on the bus, after a lecture about how the rubbish they drop outside their own houses ends up in the harbour…are driven to the beach to clean it up…because ALL of the rubbish there must come from the poor people.

    “We invite low-decile schools first and there’s an obvious reason for this. If kids have never been to the beach then you can’t engage them to change their behaviour about what they’re doing outside their house in terms of littering because it goes into the stream. That issue is prevalent in areas surrounding the Manukau Harbour and we are very aware of this from experience.”

    “Manukau Harbour extends along 450km of coastline and the Sustainable Coastlines clean-up runs for six weeks, with an estimated 1500 students helping out.

    As part of being involved in the clean-up, the students are given an educational presentation before boarding the bus. They then help pick up the rubbish along the shore.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11761677

    • James 1.1
      12 December 2016 at 7:45 am

      It’s teaching kids that what they do has consequences even if they do not see it.

      I think it’s a really good program.

      Kids are been taught that they can do real damage to the environment- how can this be bad.

      And for your info – decile 10 schools on the shore do similar things.

      • Molly 1.1.1
        12 December 2016 at 7:58 am

        “It’s teaching kids that what they do has consequences even if they do not see it.”
        You have already made the assumption that these kids don’t already know that.
        Another assumption is that these kids are all included in the cohort of people who wilfully litter.

        “I think it’s a really good program. “
        That’s because you are not a long-term consequence thinker James.
        Create urban environments that are not hostile to those that live and work in them, and they will be valued and treated as such. Introduce children to the wonder of the natural world as appreciative parts of it, not as the clean up crew for their first experience, and let them feel connected before getting them fix the mess.

        Ideally, take adults who think it is a really good programme, to do the clean up, while others who both like children and understand the significance of them not knowing their own coastline introduce them to their coastline and let them explore.

        • garibaldi 1.1.1.1
          12 December 2016 at 8:16 am

          These two comments above say it all.
          James… right wing prat
          Molly… empathetic leftie.
          Well done you two.

          • James 1.1.1.1.1
            12 December 2016 at 8:26 am

            Yep. I get called rightwong for educating kids with a practical real world example and protecting the environment.

            Ffs – not everything is political – this is just teaching kids not to littler and if they do – what happens.

            If my kids were given this as a class – I would be right behind it.

            • garibaldi 1.1.1.1.1.1
              12 December 2016 at 8:36 am

              You’ve missed the boat James.
              The whole point is these poor kids haven’t had a life. But like your ex leader you’re quite comfortable with that.

            • Rosemary McDonald 1.1.1.1.1.2
              12 December 2016 at 8:46 am

              The point I was making James…a really important point so I put it in CAPITALS and got all shouty about it, was …

              “That was three quarters of the children living in South Auckland HAD NEVER BEEN TO THE BEACH.”

              Think about that for a minute….out of 12 children bussed to the beach to pick up rubbish….9 had never been to the beach before.

              Molly got it…make their first trip to the beach a happy, positive recreational experience….exploring, sandcastles barbecue and ice cream,

              Fuck it, I give up….be happy in your wallow James…you are beyond teaching. No point in trying to raise a person’s consciousness when they are not conscious.

              • james …
                12 December 2016 at 9:00 am

                The fact that they have parents who dont take them to the beach is not the schools fault.

                The fact that collecting rubbish from the beach can be a fun as positive exprience seems to miss you.

                • Sabine …
                  12 December 2016 at 9:42 am

                  From the comment:
                  “We invite low-decile schools first and there’s an obvious reason for this. If kids have never been to the beach then you can’t engage them to change their behaviour about what they’re doing outside their house in terms of littering because it goes into the stream. That issue is prevalent in areas surrounding the Manukau Harbour and we are very aware of this from experience.”

                  So this according to those who organise it seems that rich kids don’t need to change their behavior, that they obviously don’t litter and such. Right ? Right? All those people that do go to the beach always clean up after themselves? And all those people in town shopping, and outsides their homes never flick a cigarette, drop a macdo bag, and and and.

                  At least in the communist East Germany when they had their annual clean up day of rivers and coast lines it was all the schools that went there, all the factory workers, all the office workers.
                  Not just the free labour of poor kids under the thin camouflage of ‘education’.

                • McFlock …
                  12 December 2016 at 11:45 am

                  How often do you go picking up rubbish for fun?

                  Yes indeed, many’s the time I see gaggles of excited teens going down the street on their Saturday rubbish collection, wondering aloud what they might find. All the rage in the poorer suburbs, apparently. 🙄

                  • james …
                    12 December 2016 at 5:35 pm

                    Actually – pretty much every time we go to the beach with the dogs – I pick up the rubbish.

                    You should try it. Feels nice doing just a little something for the community.

                    *edit – rubbish on the beach – not my dogs ‘rubbish’

                    • Molly …
                      13 December 2016 at 7:43 am

                      “pretty much every time we go to the beach with the dogs”
                      The point is made, you’ve gone to the beach for your own enjoyable purposes. ie. You have not gone to the beach to clean up the rubbish and happened to take the dogs….

                      “You should try it. Feels nice doing just a little something for the community.”I’m guessing that many on this site often do “something” or more for the community. Just not part of the brigade that Keri Hulme refers to as: “I wear my heart on my sleeve, so mind you look at my sleeve”.

                      “*edit – rubbish on the beach – not my dogs ‘rubbish’
                      “
                      Ewhh… pick up your dog’s rubbish James.
                      You would be providing a practical real world example, and protecting the environment.

                      (Yes, I know – wilful misunderstanding on my part. Thought you might recognise it) 🙂

      • greywarshark 1.1.2
        12 December 2016 at 10:39 am

        Sounds like a good program. A day at the beach, but I hope that it isn’t wet and raining and cold for them. Also that they have good footwear so that they don’t step on broken glass and open tins.

        But it is hard to get out and about when you are poor. There has been a lot of talk about the beaches being NZs heritage. The ones who are heard in the media most, that is, the ones who claim everything possible for their own use and to hell with the rest. We don’t even have health camps any more. There is no concerted desire and drive to be kind and caring, show empathy and respect for others who haven’t been born with a silver spoon in the mouth, which includes having opportunities and being able to grasp them to better yourself.

        Here is a nice happy song about going to the beach. Teachers and parents could sing it with their kids. Day Trip to Bangor – it is a bit out of sync – the audio and image but the song is great and more it is a great way of being transported back to the 60’s with the long hair etc.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8WiPy1xSkw

        and then there is a takeoff by Jasper Carrott which is not suitable for those of polite disposition.
        (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elmfnHHs8Yg

  2. One Anonymous Bloke 2
    12 December 2016 at 7:39 am

    Phile Quin offering free advice with a side order of bitterness and snide .

    He assumes there’ll be a by-election in Mt. Albert, so I figure we’ll be having an early election.

    • James 2.1
      12 December 2016 at 7:47 am

      Even I thought that was a little over the top scathing.

      And little won’t run for the seat.

      • Pete George 2.1.1
        12 December 2016 at 8:10 am

        @AndrewLittleMP Dec 9: “For the record, I have no intention of standing in Mt Albert”.

        Little has stated he wants an early election instead of a by-election:
        “We have anticipated that there could be an earlier election and more so given the change of leadership in the National Party.

        “So I think I’d probably rather avoid a byelection and just get straight into an earlier election.”

        …but I think that’s unlikely.

        • James 2.1.1.1
          12 December 2016 at 8:28 am

          Two things –

          1 I think little is trying to force Englishs had – but I doubt he will

          2 I think he is too chicken to go for that seat knowing just 8%want him as pm and that the spotlight would be on the by election – he’s scared it will make him look bad for the general – possibly with good cause.

          I think Jacinda will stand.

          • Muttonbird 2.1.1.1.1
            12 December 2016 at 8:36 am

            Little would clean up in Mt Albert.

            • james 2.1.1.1.1.1
              12 December 2016 at 9:02 am

              Like he did in New Plymouth?

              • Muttonbird …
                12 December 2016 at 9:09 am

                Mt Albert is not New Plymouth. National’s policies are hurting the people of Mt Albert, while New Plymouth is fed by the proceeds of unregulated dairy intensification.

                No, a by election in Mt Albert would be the 4th significant loss for the government this term alone along with Northland, Auckland, and Mt Roskill. Not to mention the disaster that was the flag referendum.

                National are petrified of Mt Albert and won’t risk it.

                • Puckish Rogue …
                  12 December 2016 at 9:49 am

                  No, a by-election in Mt Albert would be another serious drain on Labours finances which is why, if I was English I’d make sure there was a by election

                  • Muttonbird …
                    12 December 2016 at 10:55 am

                    Success breeds success and a 3rd victory in Auckland would increase the interest of likely donors.

                    No, a by election is a no win situation for National. They are very unsure of themselves in Auckland and completely disconnected from the community.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      12 December 2016 at 11:11 am

                      “increase the interest of likely donors.”

                      Now I know you’re taking the proverbial, do you really think Labour winning a safe Labour seat in a by-election is what’s going to get businesses to open their cheque books?

                      “No, a by election is a no win situation for National.”

                      Sure it is, Labour raise less money than the Greens so wasting money on a by-lection means Labour have even less to spend on the general election

                      Now while money is the most important factor in an election, if it was Internet Mana would have a couple of seats and the Greens would have more seats then Labour, you still need to spend a certain amount so draining Labour would be a good move by National

                      “They are very unsure of themselves in Auckland and completely disconnected from the community”

                      Sure and Labours Chinese sounding name debacle proves how connected they are

            • Puckish Rogue 2.1.1.1.1.2
              12 December 2016 at 9:05 am

              If I was Little I’d stand there because it would give him more legitimacy by holding an electorate seat and he’s shown he can’t win a swing seat in a general election so what he needs to win is a safe seat in a by-election

              • alwyn …
                12 December 2016 at 11:34 am

                You are just stirring PR.
                If Little stood in that electorate he would win. It is safe Labour after all.

                However what would he have to do? Suppose that Shearer resigned on 31 December. English gets to set the by-election date and he could make it sometime in the first half of March.
                Little would then have to spend all his time in Auckland campaigning. He wouldn’t be in Parliament at all for the first 2 or 3 months of the year.

                He would also look like a fool.
                If National had any sense they would arrange for local people to turn up wherever Little was and ask him questions about local problems in the electorate.
                He wouldn’t have a clue about any of them so he would be like the Green’s Gareth Hughes. You remember? “Clint what do we think about this?”

                Imagine him trying to explain how Labours transport policies were going to improve transport on some road in the electorate when he doesn’t even know where the road is, and probably whether there actually is such a road?
                Better still would be asking him questions about things that aren’t even in the electorate. He wouldn’t have time to check and would look even sillier. Plus, given his practice of simply spouting his prepared lines when questioned, it would be clear that he knows nothing about the electorate and very little about Auckland.

                The carpet bagger line wouldn’t matter. The electorate accepted that when Shearer was parachuted in and it doesn’t really matter in the bigger cities. It is only in the provincial centres that bringing someone in from outside is a very bad idea.
                However looking ignorant is never a good idea and a party leader abandoning Parliament for months is an even worse one. Worst of all would be a candidate in a by election who never turned up at all to any organised event or came up to Auckland only for weekends.

                • Puckish Rogue …
                  12 December 2016 at 11:46 am

                  Well if Labour drop anymore in the polls he might not even get in on the list vote so for me that’s another good reason to be getting an electorate seat

            • saveNZ 2.1.1.1.1.3
              12 December 2016 at 9:21 am

              I actually think Andrew little could win Mt Albert! But it is probably not worth the risk if for some reason he does not win. Again another area in Auckland where families might be sitting on large mortgages. But the unitary plan and super city from the Natz have not been popular!

              • Puckish Rogue …
                12 December 2016 at 9:35 am

                Well of course he’d win, its a Labour seat in a by-election so its his best chance of winning a seat

          • Trey 2.1.1.1.2
            12 December 2016 at 6:33 pm

            Honest question. I know 8% seems low but what did John Key rate as preferred PM when he was leader of the opposition? I would expect that it would not have been much higher than 8% but I may be wrong.

        • Muttonbird 2.1.1.2
          12 December 2016 at 8:34 am

          I think National are terrified of the momentum Labour has after Mt Roskill (Key resigned over it), and will be desperate not to lose any further ground with another heavy defeat in Mt Albert.

          The message would be clear after three landslides – National has lost Auckland to Labour. National’s policies are hurting more and more people in Auckland.

          They are scared and will call an early election just to avoid this scenario.

          • james 2.1.1.2.1
            12 December 2016 at 9:01 am

            Do you honestly think Key quit over Mt Roskill ?

            You are delusional.

            • Muttonbird 2.1.1.2.1.1
              12 December 2016 at 9:02 am

              I know Key quit over Mt Roskill.

              You are naive.

              • Puckish Rogue …
                12 December 2016 at 9:06 am

                Key quit because a Labour retained a Labour seat in a by-election…wow

                • Muttonbird …
                  12 December 2016 at 9:13 am

                  Labour humiliated National in Mt Roskill. Labour increased their strength while National believed they had narrowed the gap. National lost touch with the community and a disinterested Key read that and quit before he was pushed.

                  • Puckish Rogue …
                    12 December 2016 at 9:17 am

                    So Labour in the mid twenties humiliated National in the 40s and thus John Key resigned, you don’t happen to work for the Labour party by any chance?

                    • garibaldi …
                      12 December 2016 at 3:51 pm

                      Am I on The Standard or Kiwiblog? More bloody right wingers on here than sandflies at Milford Sounds.

              • james …
                12 December 2016 at 9:20 am

                OK – Here you go – simply question for you – How do you “Know” – anything to back that up other than a feeling?

                You ned to seperate thoughts / feelings from facts when you are presenting it as such.

              • Wayne …
                12 December 2016 at 10:12 am

                Presumably your comment was meant as irony

            • saveNZ 2.1.1.2.1.2
              12 December 2016 at 9:31 am

              Does anyone else think Paula Bennett’s suddenly publicly discovering her Maori ties, is somehow a way to try mimic Labour’s ‘I’m local” campaign?

              Natz not just a party of 1% globalists pushing free trade and massive lazy immigration, but now a u turn to offer their ‘local’ side in deputy and future PM, Bennett.

            • halfcrown 2.1.1.2.1.3
              12 December 2016 at 10:28 am

              James @ 9.20am wrote
              “Do you honestly think Key quit over Mt Roskill ?”

              No. but one definitely gets the feeling that he is quitting before the manure stuff has a conflict with the revolving thing.
              He’s scuttling off to Hawai tomorrow, Rats leaving sinking things comes to mind.

              • BM …
                12 December 2016 at 10:35 am

                Nope, he’d just be a distraction for the media, “it would be “How’s Bill going?”, “what do you think of Paula?”, etc.

                The best thing any decent leader can do is step completely out of the picture and let the new leader get on with it.

                The whole Key resignation has been a masterclass in power transition.

                • Muttonbird …
                  12 December 2016 at 10:58 am

                  I’m surprised you are still using the negative ‘resignation’ instead of the positive ‘retirement’.

                  Didn’t you get the memo?

                  • BM …
                    12 December 2016 at 11:03 am

                    Good point, retired undefeated would have been more accurate than resigned.

                    • Muttonbird …
                      12 December 2016 at 12:23 pm

                      In cricket the correct term is retired hurt.

                      Nothing sums up Key’s absconsion better than that.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      12 December 2016 at 12:58 pm

                      No its more accurate to say retired, sort of like in kids grades where one player so dominant they actually have to retire to give others a go

                    • Muttonbird …
                      12 December 2016 at 1:05 pm

                      Kids grades? He certainly treated the office like a school playground.

                    • BM …
                      12 December 2016 at 1:11 pm

                      Yery true, high chance he retired because he’d worn his shoulders out mopping the floor with all those labour leaders.

                      Poor bugger knobbled by the sheer incompetence of his opponents

                • halfcrown …
                  12 December 2016 at 11:22 am

                  BM @ 10.35 am wrote.

                  “The best thing any decent leader can do is step completely out of the picture and let the new leader get on with it.”

                  Shit this is happening too often and that is agreeing with you BM

                  Correction, don’t agree with the “decent” bit. where Key is concerend

                  • Puckish Rogue …
                    12 December 2016 at 11:31 am

                    Since you’re half way there already: https://www.mynational.org.nz/support

                    • halfcrown …
                      12 December 2016 at 11:53 am

                      Don’t get carried away Puckish, I was agreeing with BM’s statement only, as I have seen many a great leader do just that.

                      But I qualified the political part about it with tongue in cheek when I said I didn’t agree with the decent bit about Key.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      12 December 2016 at 11:58 am

                      Change comes from its members so if you want National to improve you need to join 🙂

                      Do it, do it now!

                    • Robert Guyton …
                      12 December 2016 at 12:12 pm

                      Key’s in Hawaii, Pucky’s in a spin.
                      What happened??? What just happened? Guys???

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      12 December 2016 at 12:43 pm

                      What just happened is John Key all but guaranteed a fourth National government with NZfirst

                      It is true NZFirst has gone into power with National and Labour in the past however what is also true is that NZFirst has gone into power with the party with the most votes

                      So National will have to drop a lot and Labour, not Lab/Green, will have to increase a lot

                      Even better is that people will know its because of the strength (mid to high 40s) John Key left National in

                      One last present from John Key to the Labour party 🙂

                    • BM …
                      12 December 2016 at 1:51 pm

                      Apparently Shane Jones and Peters were spotted at the Parker fight looking very matey matey.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      12 December 2016 at 2:53 pm

                      so what are the odds of Shane Jones becoming the next leader of NZFirst and continuing the National/NZFirst partnership in years to comes…

                    • Robert Guyton …
                      12 December 2016 at 3:36 pm

                      But Pucky, prior to Key’s scuttling-to-Hawaii, you were certain that he’d guaranteed National a win in 2017.Now you’re saying, all but. You’ve suffered a lost, a set-back, a slap-in-the-face.
                      Never mind, just keep your pecker up and don’t let your fear show.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      12 December 2016 at 4:23 pm

                      But Pucky, prior to Key’s scuttling-to-Hawaii, you were certain that he’d guaranteed National a win in 2017.

                      He had

                      Now you’re saying, all but. You’ve suffered a lost, a set-back, a slap-in-the-face.

                      Its true but now I’ve had to the weekend to contemplate the situation and I say all but because its possible something could happen to cause National to lose support (English inexplicably does an impromptu strip tease, Bennett demonstrates the quickest way to kill a kitten with a brick, that kind of thing) but short of that its…three more years!

                      Never mind, just keep your pecker up and don’t let your fear show.

                      I’ll make sure my pecker stays up don’t you worry about that

  3. Cinny 3
    12 December 2016 at 7:49 am

    Al Jazeera does a summary about Key the quitter.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.1
      12 December 2016 at 10:19 am

      Just another sycophantic rant from the MSM.

    • saveNZ 3.2
      12 December 2016 at 10:37 am

      @ Cinny, Although a cheer leader piece for Key, it is not really a complementary way to look at NZ. Would you really want to go and live in NZ or be proud of your country after looking at that neoliberal classification of success under Key?

  6. Cinny 6
    12 December 2016 at 9:27 am

    Ahhh NZ the Tax Haven, I wonder where this story will go..

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11765101

    • Carolyn_nth 6.1
      12 December 2016 at 9:52 am

      Interesting.

      The investigation’s revelations suggest Mourinho’s image rights were ceded from a company owned by him called Koper, located in the British Virgin Islands, to two companies in Ireland.

      Koper was in turn controlled by Kaitaia Trust, formed in Auckland in 2008. The investigation allegedly found the beneficiaries of the trust were listed as “Mourinho’s current wife and his children”.

      So formed soon after JK became PM.

      This story actually broke a couple of days before John Key resigned:

      article Dec 2nd

      It would be difficult for the scavenger hunt to lead further away from Mourinho than New Zealand. Compared to a standard game of hide-and-seek, it was quite a masterful effort at invisibility. But who in New Zealand? The foundation is called Kaitaia Trust and Mourinho’s name is not listed in the commercial register. Indeed, the only name that appears is that of an Auckland-based firm that specializes in the founding of companies. The hunt, in other words, isn’t over.

      • Carolyn_nth 6.1.1
        12 December 2016 at 10:08 am

        To make it more confusing, searching on “Kaitaia Trust” shows there’s a far north Iwi trust, referred to in English as the Kaitaia Trust. There’s also the Destiny Church Kaitaia Trust.

      • Bob 6.1.2
        12 December 2016 at 12:45 pm

        “So formed soon after JK became PM”
        Citation?
        Key was sworn in on the 19th November 2008, so one of his first acts of office was to change trust laws to allow Mourinho to allegedly dodge taxes?
        I can’t see any record of such trust laws being changed in that first month in charge…don’t tell me Labour were the ones that turned NZ into a tax haven! Or does that not fit your tinfoil hat conspiracy?

        • Carolyn_nth 6.1.2.1
          12 December 2016 at 1:17 pm

          Ihe tax laws were in existence well before Key became PM – from the end of the century, I think.

          It became obvious at a later date, that the law was being taken advantage of by tax avoiders. IRD warned the government.

          Key ignored the warnings, and, as I recall, made it even easier for tax avoiding offshore entities.

          Key may well have been aware of the potential of NZ’s foreign tax laws. He talked early on: eg 2009; of his hopes for NZ to become an offshore banking sector like Ireland

          • Cinny 6.1.2.1.1
            12 December 2016 at 6:38 pm

            Thanks for the info Carolyn, what a fascinating sequence of events. Will be following this and see where it goes.

            • Carolyn_nth 6.1.2.1.1.1
              12 December 2016 at 6:56 pm

              Well. I find JK’s resignation as puzzling as I always found his decision to return to NZ to go into politics.

              The day of his leaving suggests it was a snap decision – even though he may have been kinda planning it for a while. He had several interviews planned last Monday. Did one, cancelled the rest, then called an early press conference.

              So, there may have been a few factors contributing to his resignation. But something (maybe?) happened last Monday (or recently that he became aware of on Monday), so he rushed to do the announcement.

              Tax havens is one possible factor – so will watch that space.

  7. greywarshark 7
    12 December 2016 at 10:45 am

    On the First day of Christmas – a great quote about Friendship
    from Mark Twain (with his own wee humourous, ironic twist.)

    The holy passion of friendship is so sweet and steady and loyal and enduring in nature that it will last through a whole lifetime, if not asked to lend money. Mark Twain

  9. weka 9
    12 December 2016 at 11:16 am

    Is anyone following the Electoral College voter thing in the US? I keep seeing snippets that are suggesting that Trump might not get to be president, but I haven’t seen a good analysis of what is possible or probably.

    • tracey 9.1
      12 December 2016 at 11:22 am

      I have been following the trend toward Pence being actual President and Trump being figurehead. Pence now taking all intelligence briefings, not Trump (Trump admits).

      Interesting theory is the old guard Republicans will move at some point to impeach Trump leaving Pence as official Pres.

    • alwyn 9.2
      12 December 2016 at 11:55 am

      In Wisconsin there is almost no change. At the 95% mark Clinton would appear to have gained about a net 25 votes over Trump. Clinton is up 653 and Trump is up 628.
      That is certainly not going to overcome a 27,000 vote majority is it?
      http://elections.wi.gov/node/4760
      Where did you see anything that argued that Trump could lose the Presidency?

      • weka 9.2.1
        12 December 2016 at 12:08 pm

        “At the 95% mark Clinton would appear to have gained about a net 25 votes over Trump. Clinton is up 653 and Trump is up 628.
        That is certainly not going to overcome a 27,000 vote majority is it?”

        I have no idea, because I don’t understand what you just said.

        “Where did you see anything that argued that Trump could lose the Presidency?”

        The idea is that there is building movement for enough electoral college voters to not vote for Trump.

        • alwyn 9.2.1.1
          12 December 2016 at 12:45 pm

          “I don’t understand what you just said”
          Oh. OK I’ll spell it out a bit more fully.
          At the latest report I found, which is the link I included, they had completed a recount of 95% of the ballots. They have recounted 2,826,909 of the 2,975,313 that were cast.

          On election day Trump had led in the state by 22,000 votes (correction from the 27,000 I listed). Trump got about 1,404,000 votes and Clinton 1,382,000.

          At this point in the recount Trump’s total has risen by 628. Clinton’s total has gone up by 653. They both gained in some counties and lost in others. That is the net figure.
          Thus Trump’s majority in the state has only dropped by 25 votes and there really doesn’t seem any possibility that the last 5% of the ballots to be counted (about 150,000 of them) can give a swing to Clinton of another 21,975 does there?

          • weka 9.2.1.1.1
            12 December 2016 at 12:56 pm

            I’m not talking about the recount.

            • alwyn 9.2.1.1.1.1
              12 December 2016 at 2:00 pm

              I thought that your comment “Is anyone following the Electoral College voter thing in the US” meant the make up of the College which depends on the recounts. That is why I was talking about it.

              I didn’t realise that you were talking about the possibility of pledged voters jumping ship and voting for Clinton when they were pledged to Trump. Now I see why you didn’t see what I was talking about.

              That isn’t going to happen in my view. An awful lot of them would have to jump and they would all become pariahs. It isn’t like the dixiecrats in 1948.

    • Andre 9.3
      12 December 2016 at 11:58 am

      What is almost certainly going to happen is the Electors will cast their ballots on 19th December, and that Trump and Pence will get more than 270 each, and so everything will stay on the track it’s on now. Anything else is a very very long shot.

      The relevant bit of the Constitution is:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution

      It doesn’t specify how each state chooses electors, or that the electors are in any way bound in who they vote for. It just so happens that all states have chosen some form of FPP for their electors. Some states (not all) do have laws specifying some sort of penalty for electors that don’t vote how they’re supposed to (faithless electors), but the penalties are fairly trivial.

      There are efforts to get enough electors to vote for a moderate Republican other than Trump, which would require at least 37 faithless Republican electors to join up in order to deny Trump the 270 he needs to win the Electoral College. So far the effort seems to be led by Colorado electors (Democrats) and only one Republican elector so far publicly supports it. That may open the floodgates, but probably not. Although another elector from Texas has said he couldn’t vote for Trump and resigned, presumably replaced by a Trump loyalist.

      If Trump doesn’t get 270 electors, the choice gets thrown to the House, which then votes by some sort of state delegation basis, between the top three Electoral College vote-winners . So chances are Trump would win that vote anyway. The VP choice goes to the Senate which votes between the top two choices, so Pence is gonna be VP no matter what (barring Sweet Meteor of Death).

      I haven’t seen any one or several articles that gather it all together, but if I do I’ll post it.

      • weka 9.3.1
        12 December 2016 at 12:10 pm

        “If Trump doesn’t get 270 electors, the choice gets thrown to the House, which then votes by some sort of state delegation basis, between the top three Electoral College vote-winners . So chances are Trump would win that vote anyway.”

        State delegation?

        • Andre 9.3.1.1
          12 December 2016 at 12:18 pm

          The relevant bit of the Twelfth Amendment reads:

          “The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”

          • joe90 9.3.1.1.1
            12 December 2016 at 1:31 pm

            The relevant bit of the Twelfth Amendment reads

            Unless of course there is substance to the leaks the WaPo cites.

            Hamilton (Federalist 68) thought Electoral College would prevent "foreign powers" from putting a "creature of their own" in U.S. presidency.— Deepak Gupta (@deepakguptalaw) December 10, 2016

            • Andre 9.3.1.1.1.1
              12 December 2016 at 2:08 pm

              Well, yeah, one of the arguments used in defense of the Electoral College is it’s a final check against electing someone totally unfit to the presidency. That moment has arrived, what with the nominal winner being clearly unfit, indebted to the foreign government owned Bank of China and having alleged hidden links to Russia among a multitude of other disqualifiers, and losing the popular vote by about 2%. But I’d be utterly astonished if enough electors actually put aside partisanship to do their duty to the country.

        • Andre 9.3.1.2
          12 December 2016 at 1:29 pm

          Some of the people that aren’t electors that are trying on the conflict of interest argument to sway electors.

          http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/norm-eisen-richard-painter-ethics-214512

          It seems Trump’s ethics are too smelly to swallow even for the likes of Richard Painter, GW Bush’s ethics lawyer (!!!?!) and Peter Schweizer, the author of “Clinton Cash” (!!!!!).

  10. aerobubble 10
    12 December 2016 at 11:49 am

    Republicians left the party vacant for Trump to waddle in and take down his pants and crap right in the middle of it. Now Trump is setting the stage to destroy the Republician party for good, his admistration aint even started and i suspect Republicians in Congress are thinking impeachment already. Trump what a joke.

  11. UncookedSelachimorpha 11
    12 December 2016 at 12:21 pm

    Good article on the Grauniad today – what would Keynes say if he could see the world today?

    Keynes was no fool, we would do well to reconsider his ideas. They may have needed some tweaking, but overall far better than the current nonsense.

    The good news, Keynes hears, is that lessons were learned from the 1930s. Governments committed themselves to maintaining demand at a high enough level to secure full employment. They recycled the tax revenues that accrued from robust growth into higher spending on public infrastructure. They took steps to ensure that there was a narrowing of the gap between rich and poor.

    The bad news was that the lessons were eventually forgotten. The period between FDR’s second win and Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House can be divided into two halves: the 40 years up until 1976 and the 40 years since

  12. greywarshark 12
    12 December 2016 at 12:53 pm

    Hi Mod
    I have a couple from this morning stuck when you have time one O/M and one Essential Forest think its called.

    [r0b: Have they appeared yet? Nothing stuck in the queue that I can see, sorry]

    [I released a bunch of comments this morning, I think at least one was grey’s – weka]

  14. AsleepWhileWalking 14
    12 December 2016 at 1:15 pm

    Check out the indepth interview with Dr Peter Vincent Pry, expert on EMP attacks.

  15. Draco T Bastard 15
    12 December 2016 at 1:58 pm

  16. Puckish Rogue 16
    12 December 2016 at 2:05 pm

    Let me be the first to offer my commiserations to the Labour party and all left voters:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11765282

    John? John Who?

    Bill English gave a hugely impressive performance in his first press conference as newly elected National Party leader, with deputy leader Paula Bennett alongside.

    The 10 years he spent in his so-called masterclass of leadership under John Key were evident.

    So too was the 54 years English has been exercising his own natural intelligence and tinder dry sense of humour.

    One of the biggest surprises was a reference to supporting unions in his prepared statement – perhaps a first for a leader of the National Party which has traditionally been the party of bosses.

    “By supporting families, businesses, volunteers, parents, iwi, unions and churches Government can do a better job of changing lives,” he said.

  17. Puckish Rogue 17
    12 December 2016 at 2:43 pm

    The aspiration and inspirational John Key

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/jake-millar-how-john-key-changed-my-life-jake-millar

    Oh Captain! My Captain! Why did you leave us so soon, you were like a beautiful sunset at noon

    A comet across the sky, the wind beneath my wings, as kiwi as a mince and cheese pie

    We’ll never see the likes of you in this world again

    • Ad 17.1
      12 December 2016 at 3:43 pm

      O Captain My Captain?

      More like Ginsburg’s O Master Master.

    • Molly 17.2
      12 December 2016 at 8:07 pm

      Saturday Night Live might give you a good visual PR, of your romantic view of the National Party.

      Especially at 2:30. 😉

      https://youtu.be/Ie6LpKOJVf0

      Sing, sing a song…

      Spooky resemblance to John Key’s resignation in the last few seconds, don’t you think?

      Alright? I’m gonna take off. Umm, you guys have my email and everything, right?

      • The decrypter 17.2.1
        12 December 2016 at 9:19 pm

        Thanks, now things become clear. Double dipper casts aside the rugby image and trys to concentrate on the arts–eg poets –on a farming theme’ Mary had a little lamb’ etc.

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  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

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  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

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  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

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  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

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    20 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

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    22 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

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    24 hours ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

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  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

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  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

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  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

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  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

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  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

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  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

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  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

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  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

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  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

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  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

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  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

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  • Half a million people use tax calculator

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  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

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  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

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  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

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  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

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    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

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  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

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  • NZ to advance relationships with ASEAN partners

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    4 days ago
  • Backing mental health services on the West Coast

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    4 days ago
  • NZ support for sustainable Pacific fisheries

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    4 days ago
  • Students’ needs at centre of new charter school adjustments

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    4 days ago
  • Commissioner replaces Health NZ Board

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    5 days ago
  • Minister to speak at Australian Space Forum

    Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum.  While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation.  “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
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    5 days ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

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    5 days ago
  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
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    7 days ago
  • Government launches Military Style Academy Pilot

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    7 days ago
  • Nine priority bridge replacements to get underway

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    1 week ago
  • Update on global IT outage

    Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
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    1 week ago
  • New Zealand, Japan renew Pacific partnership

    New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says.    “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
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    1 week ago
  • New infrastructure energises BOP forestry towns

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  • 'Pacific Futures'

    President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests.    Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone.    Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
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    1 week ago

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