The best way for Labour to help National is to encourage their ministers to appear incompetent in public. The strategy seems to be working well:
The minister responsible for the Covid-19 rules, Chris Hipkins, admitted to a “mind blank” when asked about what the change to ”orange” meant for mask use.
In a jumbled press conference announcing New Zealand’s move from red to orange on the Covid-19 traffic lights system, Hipkins defended rules which allow unmasked party goers to “pash” on the dance floor and had to backtrack after giving incorrect information about mask requirements.
Hipkins initially said “the rules have changed”, and then incorrectly told reporters airlines and bus operators could set their own rules on face masks… Passengers on public transport are still required to wear a mask and the Covid-19 response minister had to correct himself mid-announcement.
Hipkins finished the press conference with a mea culpa and apology: “I did not refresh my memory sufficiently about mask requirements at orange, I apologise for that. That was my mistake.” He insisted the mask rules would be clear for the public, despite initially being confused about the rules.
His confidence that the general public will better at getting clarity on the new rules than he himself could be misplaced. However, sending the tacit signal to National that he believers the average voter is quicker on the uptake than he is seems an excellent example of bipartisanship. Will they grab this plum he has tossed at them and run with it?
Hipkins could have brain fog from Covid. Needs to refresh the traffic light rules before he presents. Just because the mask rules have changed in some situations there is nothing stopping a person from wearing a mask if they choose to.
To be fair, Hipkins is the Labour minister I like and respect the most.
He seems earnest and hard-working.
And he doesn't shy away from interviews even with the likes of HDPA and Hosking who tend try to eviscerate him. Yet he always responds in a cheery fashion, and tries to answer the questions in an open and honest way.
Having a cheerful disposition helps. Being open & honest puts him above the PM currently. Fronting up for hostile interviews is even more meritorious.
Problem: fronting the change to the pandemic management system at a press conference requires a grasp of the changes being made. He failed on that count.
A PM's rating of ministerial performance is based on the minister's ability to get the elementary facts right when media ask about them.
I agree, IMO Hipkins is the best performing Labour MP and as you say, always fronts up to interviews. I just think he is too busy with both Covid and Education so things slip through the cracks as he is too stretched. I think Jacinda would give him Poto Williams' portfolios too if she could, as she is clearly not coping, but he's too busy.
James will go, the new non binary co-leadership model will be adopted, 10 000 people will like it on Twitter and it will lead to the Greens limping home with 7% in 2023.
If they adopt it, no way will they get 7%. If they scrape in with 5% it will be a considerable surprise to me. I'm picking 4%, perhaps 3.5%. He's likely to be right about James deciding enough's enough though.
And hey, discrimination against males is cool in the GP will be the verdict that turns voters off. Why is this not obvious to the Green Caucus & Exceutive already?? They can blather until they’re blue in the face that the rule change doesn’t thus discriminate. Technically correct is not a win – perception defeats reality!
Jan Logie did achieve having some birth injuries being covered by ACC. Logie is currently chipping away at the ACC sensitive claims process. It is brutal, repetitive and slow.
Davidson has not done well with emergency housing. Now that the country has opened up I expect rents will rise and there will be less capacity in motels for emergency housing. The shortage and cost of building materials is also a concern. People will stay in a rental longer due to this.
I’ve been a TOP voter for the last 2 elections – kind of a protest vote. But practically I think the Greens have the best chance of leading Aotearoa to a more just system of redistribution of wealth.
Their identity bollocks is bloody annoying divisive and alienating tho. Despite that, I am inclined to hold my nose and vote Green for a better chance of fairer taxation, benefits, and investment in the future.
What would a Russian victory in Ukraine look like?
Russia's ally in Syria gives us a some idea of what Ukraine under Russian occupation would be like.
A year after “reconciliation”: Arrests and disappearances abound in southern Syria
……Among those arrested was Rateb al-Jabawi, the former head of Jasim local council during the opposition rule. In September 2018, al-Jabawi was taken from his home and arrested by a security service patrol in the city of Jasim. “[His arrest] is one of the most important violations of the settlement deal,” said the former military commander.”
Security and military patrols have also been conducting raids and searches on houses of civilians in the town of Rasm al-Halabi, a village in the countryside of al-Quneitra, and have specifically targeted former members of the Civil Defense (The White Helmets). They have recently arrested two brothers who formerly worked with the White Helmets, Bilal and Ala’a Shubat.
A week before the arrest of the Shubat brothers, three former members of the Civil Defense from the village of Saidah al-Joulan, near the Golan Heights, were kidnapped while traveling between the city of al-Sheikh Maskin and Nawa in the Daraa governorate. Local media outlets accused the Syrian government security forces of being behind the kidnappings….
Disappearances of citizens with no trial are a hall mark of fascist states.
The policy of abducting of political activists and journalists and elected representatives common in Assad’s Syria, are now being carried in areas of occupied Ukraine by Russian forces.
In A Ukrainian Region Occupied By Russian Forces, People Are Disappearing. Locals Fear It's About To Get Worse.
March 16, 2022 17:30 GMT
By Oleksandr Yankovshiv
Volodymyr Mykhavlov
Yevhenia Tokar
On the morning of March 12, just after 9 a.m., Serhiy Tsyhipa said goodbye to his wife and walked out the door of his home in the small southern Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka, along with his dog Ais, to meet colleagues in the next town.
Tsyhipa, a 60-year-old activist, blogger, and vocal opponent of Russia's invasion, was also supposed to drop off some medicine for his mother-in-law.
"He never arrived. He never came home. His phone turned on twice for a few minutes and that's it. I was only able to send voice messages, nothing more," his wife, Olena, told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service.
The same day Tsyhipa disappeared, Oleh Baturin, a reporter for a local news site called Noviy Den, also went missing. His relatives and colleagues are still looking for him…..
In southern Ukraine's Kherson region, people are going missing — most recently on March 16, when armed men seized the mayor and his deputy in the coastal town of Skadovsk and took them away to an undisclosed location….
…..As far as I know Russia does not rule any part of Ukraine.
Mikesh, "as far as you know" is not very far..
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
Russia seized control of most of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, except for the northern areas of the Arabat Spit and the Syvash, which were still ruled by Ukraine right up until February this year when Russia forcibly occupied and imposed their rule on these last bits of Crimea as well.
Some other parts of Ukraine in the Donbas region, are also effectively ruled from Russia. Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is ruled by Russia-backed separatists, led by far right Russian Nationalists and neo-nazis, with state backing from Russia.
….Some have pointed out the far right received only 2% of the vote in Ukraine’s 2019 parliamentary elections, far less than in most of Europe….
….What has received less coverage is the Putin regime’s own record of collaboration with far-right extremists….
…..No less important is the role of neo-Nazis and other right-wing figures in Russia’s onslaught against Ukraine.
….Putin’s weaponisation of neo-Nazis was always a risky strategy, but it was not irrational. Unlike mainstream nationalists, who tend to support the idea of free elections, neo-Nazis reject democratic institutions and the very idea of human equality. For a dictator dismantling democracy and constructing an authoritarian regime, they were ideal accomplices.
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
For your information, Crimea is part of Russia. Crimea has been been part of Russia for 300 years, and it was returned to Russia in 2014 with the consent of the Crimean people, the majority of whom are Russian anyway.
I think the transfer of Crimea in 1954 was effected by the Soviet Union, not by Russia. Russia and the Soviet Union were of course separate entities, and the latter no longer exists
It is your knowledge, I think, which does not "extend very far".
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
Russia has Neo-Nazis, as has every country probably, but they have no influence on government. It is actually the Ukraine that is led by Neo-Nazis. Zelenskyy himself campaigned on a "peace" policy, and I think that that is a policy he would have preferred to have followed, but the Nazi faction in the Ukraine, I think, wouldn't let him, so instead he was forced to continue the bombing of the Eastern regions. Not only that but he (was forced?) to endorse a policy aimed at conquering Crimea – a policy which Putin could scarcely be expected to countenance – and I think that ultimately this was the policy that led to the invasion.
The men of the Donbas "republic",incidentally, are not Nazis, just men unwilling to live under Ukraine's Nazi rule. This war actually started in 2014 when the democratically elected president, Viktor Yanokovich, was illegally deposed by the Ukraine's Nazi element. It was at that point that they started to seek autonomy.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Unless you think Ukraine is flattening its own cities to discredit Russia.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Bombing of Guernica
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
…..The attack gained controversy because it involved the bombing of civilians by a military air force. Seen as a war crime by some historians, and argued as a legitimate attack by others,[1] it was one of the first aerial bombings to capture global attention.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
The illegal ousting of Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 was engineered by fascists, so clearly they have sufficient influence to be able to pull strings.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
True. Simply imposing a label never justifies anything.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Abhorent, I agree. But it "takes two to tango". The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion; which clearly they did.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion;
I should have added that this war might well have ended a lot sooner had the USA and GB not been supplying the Ukrainians eith weapons. And it may not even have started if the Ukranians had not been able to anticipate such assistance. So the burden of guilt would have to fall on the USA and GB also.
In case you hadn't noticed, the Ukrainians are fighting a proxy war on behalf of Uncle Sam.
Principled rightists are rare beasts but one just resigned as Conservative justice minister in the UK due to govt delinquency:
In a letter to Mr Johnson, Lord David Wolfson criticised the "official response" to "repeated rule-breaking". He is the first person to quit the government since reports of lockdown parties emerged.
Barrister Lord Wolfson has been a justice minister since December 2020, with responsibility for human rights and the constitution.
In his resignation letter, Lord Wolfson said the “scale, context and nature” of Covid breaches in government was inconsistent with the rule of law.
He added that he had “no option” other than to resign, given his “ministerial and professional obligations” in this area.
“It is not just a question of what happened in Downing Street, or your own conduct,” he wrote to the PM. “It is also, and perhaps more so, the official response to what took place.”
With Labour governments in the UK now being virtually impossible due to FPP, Scottish nationalism and a corporate media environment that is relentlessly hostile to them – politics is now reduced to which faction of the Tory party is in power.
It is a contest between the 'levelling up' nationalists wanting to make Britain great again, project power globally and not averse to governments doing stuff and spending money (Johnson faction) – and the swivel-eyed neoliberal loons of the 'Singapore on Thames' mob.(Sunak faction).
Hard to argue with that. Starmer does seem notably centrist however – which we could translate as electable. Not that his likely default to a neoliberal agenda would please many other than as least/worst option. But you're right to imply that tories must implode to get that scenario activated. Boris is a scrapper. Opinion polls trending down for him would be a signal to watch for.
People seem to forget, ignore or stick their fingers in their ears and go lalala that England is predominantly a centre right country and has been since '79. All hard left labour leaders since have led the party to record breaking defeats.
It's like these "turn labour left" people have no idea of the real state of play in politics. It might not be what's needed, or desired by the more politically engaged, but winning the trust of the middle and dragging them left without scaring the voters away is the only way right wing conservatism can be kept from running amok unchecked. Add in a virtual monopoly of right leaning media it makes party messaging even more vital than ever. One has to be in it to win it.
“Edwina Currie boasts ‘I don’t care’ Boris Johnson broke law because Tories will win anyway”
I commented the other day on the nuclear weapon's strategy of mutually assured destruction and how the policy can no longer be relied on in the context of current events (if it ever could have been previously).
The MAD (appropriate acronymn!!) strategy assumed a that major actors would be rational and would care for their own lives, and that of their population, and hence would not resort to the use of such weapons.
The problem is that Putin, in a nefariously rational way, is threatening use of weapons if other nations go too far in terms of trying to stop him getting his way. Thus, nuclear weapons have suddenly become a major problem when a major power uses nuclear weapons to bully other nations into acquiescing to his demands and actions no matter how horrific they are.
The problem being that if that sort of behaviour is tolerated, then it will continue to be repeated until the bully nation gets all it wants.
This is a very thorny problem without any obvious solution. To me, it seems nuclear war is almost unavoidable at some point in the future with this sort of cavalier attitude.
Once we get through the current crisis, I think this is an issue world leaders will need to address.
One solution I proposed the other day, was that the super powers could agree to disband nuclear weapons in favour of large thermobaric ones if they still want to maintain a MAD policy. Those weapons have city-killing potential without the nuclear fall-out problems that could kill civilisation. So would do the job of MAD without the wider implications.
Perhaps that could be a first step to total de-escalation and move towards a much more sustainable future of peace and co-operation.
Yes. If Putin wants to invade eastern Poland or the Baltic states for instance – exactly what would stop him if he recycles the same successful tactic? This has been the gorilla in the living room from the very start of this Ukrainian butchery.
In doing this Putin stepped over a line – he has essentially said that he is the greater madman, that he believes it is worth ending civilisation to obtain his goals. Effectively he is now a greater monster than Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and Hitler combined. You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West – and there is the very real possibility he is so unhinged that he is willing to end the world to achieve it. If there is any truth to the idea that Alexandr Dugin has and is influencing his beliefs then we have to take this possibility seriously.
The lazy strategy in response is to hope for an internal coup to topple him. Small odds of success in my view.
The next strategy is to call his bluff as the West has been doing in a proportionate fashion, arming Ukraine and aiding with intelligence and imposing sanctions. The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world. Gradually ramping up the military pressure without triggering a nuclear response. This is the ‘ how lucky do you feel punk’ plan.
The third strategy that would be the most dramatic, but could be the most profound. A global Mexican standoff – an open declaration that at the moment the first Russian nuke of any size is detonated anywhere that there will be an immediate, unconstrained launch of every western nuclear weapon onto not only Russia but onto every nation aligned with them.
There is only one feasible, enduring solution to this threat – that the nations cede their power to commit war and their surrender their nuclear weapons in toto to a global body. The only way to ensure this happens now is through fear of the consequences of failing to do so.
At the outset such a global body would be deeply imperfect, it would still be riven by contention and conflict between the democratic and authoritarian powers. It would still lack a universal embracing of a moral principle to guide it, it would struggle to attain an authentic democratic accountability. But if the alternative was extinction we might just have to swallow the largest rodent in all of human history and do it.
You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West
Really?? I doubt it. But if so, Ukraine would have to be seen as aiding him by providing him with a justifiable target with which to start such a project.
Red, you would enjoy some of the podcasts on youtube by Peter Zeihan, a really insightful geopolitical analyst.
He thinks it is unlikely that Russia will use a tactical nuke in Ukraine (though not ruling it out entirely). His view is that if Russia were to do that, one of the consequences would be that every Nato nation would very quickly have nuclear missiles on their countries pointing directly at Russia.
So, hopefully, the use of a tactical nuke isn't so likely. And hopefully, Putin still fears MAD, and is just bluffing in that respect.
Apparently the Russians are saying that a fire on board caused ammunition to detonate meaning that the crew was evacuated. According the Ukranians, they have hit it with neptune missiles.
A warship is built in 1979. Suddenly, after 43 years of operation without catching fire, and a few hours after Ukraine claims to have hit it with missiles, Russia says it had an 'onboard fire' and 'ammunition explosion' without admitting any attack! Quite the coincidence there.
For amusing mockery of Russian lies and evil behaviour, I recommend Darth Putin and Sputnik_not
It doesn't matter what type of weapon levels cities, we're already witnessing the levelling of cities.
Our youth are already traumatised enough, by the adults in the room and their indifference and the pandemic, global warming, no path to a bright future, and now this Putin psycho. You reckon lobbing a nuke will help? Sounds desperate. Take a breath.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped. But violence begets trauma begets violence, and the hate lives on.
What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.
With the use of these bombs Japan would not have been forced to surrender until the country was wiped out.
What are you talking about? Regurgitating US myths – next you'll tell us that WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
Nuclear weapons shocked Japan into surrendering at the end of World War II—except they didn’t. Japan surrendered because the Soviet Union entered the war. Japanese leaders said the bomb forced them to surrender because it was less embarrassing to say they had been defeated by a miracle weapon. Americans wanted to believe it, and the myth of nuclear weapons was born.
Look at the facts. The United States bombed 68 cities in the summer of 1945. If you graph the number of people killed in all 68 of those attacks, you imagine that Hiroshima is off the charts, because that’s the way it’s usually presented. In fact, Hiroshima is second. Tokyo, a conventional attack, is first in the number killed. If you graph the number of square miles destroyed, Hiroshima is sixth. If you graph the percentage of the city destroyed, Hiroshima is 17th.
WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
The war in Europe was lost without Lend Lease and US industrial might.
Churchill had just raised his glass for the concluding toast when
Stalin requested the privilege of proposing one more toast—to the
President and people of the United States:
I want to tell you, from the Russian point of view, what
the President and the United States have done to win the war.
The most important things in this war are machines. The
United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to
10.000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most,
3.000 airplanes a month. England turns out 3,000 to 3,500,
which are principally heavy bombers. The United States,
therefore, is a country of machines.
Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease,
we would lose this war
This generous tribute prompted Roosevelt to ask for the last word.
He talked about the diversity of political complexions around the
banquet table which, he said, reminded him of the rainbow, to Ameri
cans “a symbol of good fortune and of hope.” The President con
tinued:
First of all, I want to say about the words of Stalin, which he repeated several times when we had "free conversations" among ourselves. He directly said that if the United States had not helped us, we would not have won this war: face to face with Nazi Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and lost the war.
Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”
That's right, the US contributed greatly but the insertion of US armed forces was not the sole reason behind victory in Europe, it required a large number people and governments, you know, the Allied powers, working together. Funny that.
“What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.”
I think that explanation was a nonsense argument, providing cognitive dissonance to justify the horror of what happened.
The US could have chosen a much slower but far less damaging method to achieve the same end. For instance, blockading all of Japans ports until they surrendered. There wasn't any need for any more US or Japanese to die.
First of all, you are assuming that the Japanese would have surrendered if subject to blockade – an outcome completely unpredictable in 1945 and completely at variance with the fanatical resistance of the Japanese up to that point. The use of atomic weapons acted as a circuit breaker that gave the Japanese a way out.
Second, you are dismissing the mass starvation that would have been caused by a blockade. The chances are many more, potentially running to the millions, could have starved to death (including large numbers of Allied POWs being held by the Japanese in Japan) than those who died in the nuclear attacks.
Third you are not considering the considerable political impetus to use nuclear weapons in 1945. Consider this. It is December 1945, and you are a US Congressman attending a rally. An angry mother demands to know why her son was killed two days ago in a Kamikaze attack on his blockading cruiser when the United States had possessed for many months a wonder weapon of enormous power, but hadn't chosen to use it. Another man chimes in, saying he had heard via the Red Cross his son, a POW since 1942, had starved to death in November. He also wants to know why the government hadn't used this weapon on an enemy everyone (after three years of propaganda) agreed were little more than sentient Monkeys and saved his boy. No elected politician would want to answer those questions and if you were that congressman you'd be really, really pissed at any president who didn't use said wonder weapon at the earliest opportunity.
It is all very well to sit back eighty years later and make rational arguments when in full possession of the facts but people in 1945 neither had all the facts or even if they had were disposed to give a brutal, dehumanised and merciless enemy any benefit of the doubt whatsoever.
The Germans terror bombed Warsaw and Rotterdam, and they got Hamburg and Dresden. The Japanese brutalised Allied POWs and fought with merciless savagery and they got Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is how the remorseless escalation of violence in war work.
You may be right. And we are looking back 80 years. Which is why I am not into "whataboutism" because most countries these days try to do everything possible to avoid the use of nukes.
But, I still see the deliberate targeting of civilian populations with nuclear weapons has to be, by definition, the ultimate expression of a war crime.
Sure, nukes were the shiny new thing back then, and people didn't know the full implications of them. But I still think there were much more peaceful options available.
Another option may have been to have a demonstration of nuke at sea so the Japanese could see what might be in store for them if they continued the fight.
The threat of something is often more effective than actually doing it. That is because the Japanese, including its leaders, would have no idea who the target of the weapon might be, if it were actually used.
I just don't accept that the use of nukes on civilian populations had to be the only option considered. What would we say today if Russia did that to say, Kiev?
I think you are ascribing far to much thinking and nuance to a political process that basically went like this: "We've got the bomb, they don't, lets nuke 'em – they deserve it – and end this damn war quickly. Oh and while we are it at the same time show the Commies in Moscow they should be afraid, very afraid".
The secondary debate about morality and how many people might have died either way was left for philosophers, theologians and historians at a later date.
As for the Russian maybe using nuclear weapons – these are now understood to be weapons of last resort, for use only in retaliation for an existential nuclear attack. Russia would gain nothing by using nuclear weapons except to create an exceptional risk of total annihilation. Putin is as crazy as a cut snake, so who knows how far he is prepared to go but the United States has made 100% crystal clear it would respond in kind to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine.
The blockade idea was actually working – not cruisers, but US submarines had basically obliterated maritime traffic of all sizes around the Home Islands. It was just a matter of time until surrender.
But also, I haven't seen any example of any part of US government that was in the know even considering not using the Bomb. Some had the vengeance thing going, others wanted to see its effects, some wanted it as a warning to the Soviets, but these all seem to be "add-on" motives. The Bomb was going to be dropped, lots of folks could see positive angles for their own policy area or bugbear, but not dropping it doesn't seem to have seriously occurred to anyone.
The Japanese surrender was not precipitated by the nukes, but by Russia's rejection of a conditional surrender.
Once Russia entered the war in the East, Japan had no options left short of unconditional surrender. But the bureaucracy was a little slow, as it was with the declaration of war prior to Pearl Harbour.
that was the worst war crime in the history of the world.
Winners don’t commit war crimes.
LeMay said, "If we'd lost the war, we'd all have been prosecuted as war criminals." And I think he's right. He, and I'd say I, were behaving as war criminals. LeMay recognized that what he was doing would be thought immoral if his side had lost. But what makes it immoral if you lose and not immoral if you win?
As an aside, while the Manhatten project cost two billion the cost to develop the B-29 bomber was three billion so the two atomic bombs and their delivery system represented a massive investment.
In context, it was the equivalent at the time of forty fleet aircraft carriers complete with their air groups.
Yes this is effectively what Putin is doing, threatening nuclear extinction and using as cover to achieve the unconditional surrender of first Ukraine – then Europe.
Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack. Plus Xi has not yet made his public move.
Putin has appointed a new military leader who openly prefers the standard Soviet siege strategy of slowly surrounding, starving and shelling opponents into surrender regardless of casualties.
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565, when after very heavy losses to his army he stood on the smoking ruins of the desperately defended small fort of St. Elmo and looked across the bay at the solid walls of Fort St Angelo:
“If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565 … “If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
I'm not sure the 1565 Great Seige of Malta by the Ottoman Turks will necessarily be sitting uppermost in the minds of Russian strategists at the moment.
Nor will the 1315 Battle of Morgarten, in which the independence-seeking Swiss ambushed Duke Leopold I's well-trained army of Hapsburg mercenaries on the shores of Lake Ageri with Louis X of France exclaiming: “They appear outraged by the ban imposed by the Bishop of Bern's emissaries yet are reluctant to act for fear of Schwyz violence”.
I'd aver the Ruskies will also pay little, if any, heed to the position of the Luftwaffe in 1945, the 1240 Sacking of Sandomierz during the first Mongol invasion of Poland, in which the Abbot of Koprzywnica and all his monks were brutally murdered with boiling molasses, the position the French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps found itself in towards the end of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War, the predicament of the German High Seas fleet after the Battle of Jutland in 1916, of which an American journalist observed – “the German fleet has assaulted its jailer, but it is still in jail”, the position of the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty in northern China on the eve of the 1211 Battle of Yehuling wherethe Mongol Empire forces of Genghis Khan ultimately prevailed, albeit at the cost of weakening certain allied tribes …
Nor, for that matter, do I suspect Russian strategists will currently be pondering lessons to be learned from the decidedly gruesome 1676 Sea Battle of the Faroes, in which the combined maritime forces of Denmark & Norway under King Frederick V were massacred in a surprise axe-wielding ship invasion by men serving under the rebellious Icelandic Sea Captain & former Pirate Ólafur Halldór Gunnarsson.
All genuine battles & seiges, RL, with valuable life-lessons for Sanc to imbibe & learn … except, perhaps, the last-mentioned axe-wielding homicidal Icelandic maniac … that was probably just wishful thinking …
… also not entirely sure there was ever a French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps on reconnaissance duties during the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War … but, by the same token, we can't completely rule it out either.
“Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack.”
The fact that the Russian army has performed so badly is even more scary.
The point that Peter Zeihan makes is that previously US and NATO strategists expected that the Russians would be very tough opponents in a conventional war. But now it has become very obvious to both NATO and Russia that Russia would be obliterated in any conventional conflict. Thus the only choice for Russia would be a humiliating defeat or resorting immediately to nukes.
Hence, NATO wants to do everything possible to avoid direct conflict with Russia. Which is why they want to bleed Russia dry in Ukraine rather than allow the possibility of Russia succeeding and facing off directly with Poland (a NATO country) as a result.
Military theorists and strategists like Sun Tzu have viewed attrition warfare as something to be avoided… On the other hand, a side which perceives itself to be at a marked disadvantage in maneuver warfare or unit tactics may deliberately seek out attrition warfare to neutralize its opponent's advantages.
If the sides are nearly evenly matched, the outcome of a war of attrition is likely to be a Pyrrhic victory.
I think NATO did originally see it as a war of attrition because they expected that Russia would win the conventional war against Ukraine very quickly, and then NATO would be supporting an insurgency.
However, due to the success of the Ukraine military, and the horrors of the war crimes by Russia, I think the mood has now changed so that NATO would be very happy to see Ukraine soundly beat Russia.
Hence, I think if you look at the various media reports, NATO is now supplying a lot more heavy weapons that have the potential to enable Ukraine defeat Russia outright.
With the attack on the Moskva, Ukraine has opened up a new flank. If the Russian fleet is as much of a paper tiger as other Russian forces, Russian forces besieging Mariupol may find themselves hung out to dry with no lines of supply or retreat.
Tsar Poot's went into Ukraine with a pair 7's to bluff everyone, that he is willing to use his Nukes/ WMD's if they deployed Troops into Ukraine.
His bluff hasn't work nor has hand with a pair 7's as the Ukrainian resolve & it's Security Forces have given him a frightful belting that no one really predicted unless you really understand the doctrine of Territorial Defence.
Poot's is running out of options fast & now it appears the Russian Flag Ship of the Black Fleet has met it's Trafalgar.
If anyone here understand the mindset of a Slavic Male, they don't like losing to inferior people/ nations
To those who have following Tsar Poot's in particular his dark arts from the KGB & you throw in Maskirovka which is almost as old as Russia itself.
Then Tsar Poots Best Bets Form Guide, tells you he is capable of doing it & at 3/1 he will, be it he is winning or when he is at last chance saloon.
9th May is going to be D Day (Victory Day over Nazi Germany) in Russia for Tsar Poot's.
Hmmm, the Moskva is supposed to have a layered air defense of S-300 and 9K33 missiles and 130mm rapid fire (up to 40 RPM) guns and 30mm CIWS as well as a shipload of passive (flares, jammers, chaff) counter-measures yet appears to have been hit by a single, high subsonic anti-ship missile using conventional radar guidance that was probably fired off the back of a Toyota with no counter-measures to support it.
let me guess – The ships systems are either not working and/or not competently crewed and/or completely ineffective and/or the ship was recklessly exposed to a missile strike.
The record since WW2 of surface ships successfully engaging anti-ship missiles is not encouraging for naval types who like to stay dry, yet Navies these days insist on building 10,000 ton "destroyers" as big as pre WW2 treaty cruisers, and probably as vulnerable to missile attack as those earlier ships were to air attack. From the INS Eilat to PNS Khaibar to HMS Sheffield to USS Stark to the Moskva the case against surface ships is building all the time…
As Karl Dönitz said, admirals like big ships, because "you can't parade a band on the deck of a submarine".
Well it makes sense, if the Ukrainian Military Forces have used those Turkish UAV's again.
In their last attack on Russian Ships, when the Ukrainians drop a couple bombs literally through the hatch (well the Cargo hull was open at the time) onto the vehicle deck that was full bang (ammo) & the valuable Russian Landing Ship went boom.
The Ukrainian Military Forces also managed to seriously damaged the other 2 Landing Ships alongside as well which did the Harry Holt out of the port with various fires on the respective Landing Ships.
The ship is a strategic missile platform,it more then likely does have at least 16 warheads on board in case of Nato intervention,and a switch to strategic defense.
Yes, word is the thing is at the bottom of the sea now. Apparently the single largest loss of life event the Russians have experienced in the war thus far.
This is not going to be ideal for Russian's supply of cruise missiles that they were starting to run short of I think.
I was wondering if there were any nukes on board. Hopefully not.
It's now the biggest Combat Surface Unit to be sunk Post WW2, the previous country was Argentina in the Falklands War. It's Brooklyn Class Crusier was sunk a Pommy SSN ( Nuclear Attack Sub) with a Torpedo dating back to WW2.
When Kruschev said "We will bury you", I don't think he talking about some future military action; I think he meant that the USSR would come to lead the world economically. To bring Europe into some sort of Russian empire that's what Russia would have to do. By themselves I don't think that that would be possible; but with China's help, who knows.
Last month, she recruited the former Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer to review the country’s border force, weeks after he had urged the UK to adopt a hard line on boat migrants.
Last year, Australian government figures showed that the country spent £461m processing 239 refugees and asylum seekers held offshore.
On the other hand maybe not surprising. Surely, there's money to be made by the Tory party donors. The company running the Australian off-shore camp is doing very well from what I've read.
Looks like she lost the confidence of her colleagues, and read the writing on the "wall". I can see why Manurewa voters do not care for a neoliberal obsessed with identity issues rather than the concerns of her working class electorate. Agree with Sanctuary.
Monday left me brokenTuesday, I was through with hopingWednesday, my empty arms were openThursday, waiting for love, waiting for loveThe end of another week that left many of us asking WTF? What on earth has NZ gotten itself into and how on earth could people have voluntarily signed up for ...
Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.State of humanity, 20242024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?Full story Share ...
Determining the hardest sport in the world is a subjective matter, as the difficulty level can vary depending on individual abilities, physical attributes, and experience. However, based on various factors including physical demands, technical skills, mental fortitude, and overall accomplishment, here is an exploration of some of the most challenging ...
The allure of sport transcends age, culture, and geographical boundaries. It captivates hearts, ignites passions, and provides unparalleled entertainment. Behind the spectacle, however, lies a fascinating world of financial investment and expenditure. Among the vast array of competitive pursuits, one question looms large: which sport carries the hefty title of ...
Introduction Pickleball, a rapidly growing paddle sport, has captured the hearts and imaginations of millions around the world. Its blend of tennis, badminton, and table tennis elements has made it a favorite among players of all ages and skill levels. As the sport’s popularity continues to surge, the question on ...
Abstract: Soccer, the global phenomenon captivating millions worldwide, has a rich history that spans centuries. Its origins trace back to ancient civilizations, but the modern version we know and love emerged through a complex interplay of cultural influences and innovations. This article delves into the fascinating journey of soccer’s evolution, ...
Tinting car windows offers numerous benefits, including enhanced privacy, reduced glare, UV protection, and a more stylish look for your vehicle. However, the cost of window tinting can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article provides a comprehensive guide to help you understand how much you can expect to ...
The pungent smell of gasoline in your car can be an alarming and potentially dangerous problem. Not only is the odor unpleasant, but it can also indicate a serious issue with your vehicle’s fuel system. In this article, we will explore the various reasons why your car may smell like ...
Tree sap can be a sticky, unsightly mess on your car’s exterior. It can be difficult to remove, but with the right techniques and products, you can restore your car to its former glory. Understanding Tree Sap Tree sap is a thick, viscous liquid produced by trees to seal wounds ...
The amount of paint needed to paint a car depends on a number of factors, including the size of the car, the number of coats you plan to apply, and the type of paint you are using. In general, you will need between 1 and 2 gallons of paint for ...
Jump-starting a car is a common task that can be performed even in adverse weather conditions like rain. However, safety precautions and proper techniques are crucial to avoid potential hazards. This comprehensive guide will provide detailed instructions on how to safely jump a car in the rain, ensuring both your ...
Graham Adams writes about the $55m media fund — When Patrick Gower was asked by Mike Hosking last week what he would say to the many Newstalk ZB callers who allege the Labour government bribed media with $55 million of taxpayers’ money via the Public Interest Journalism Fund — and ...
Note: this blog post has been put together over the course of the week I followed the happenings at the conference virtually. Should recordings of the Great Debates and possibly Union Symposia mentioned below, be released sometime after the conference ends, I'll include links to the ones I participated in. ...
The following was my submission made on the “Fast Track Approvals Bill”. This potential law will give three Ministers unchecked powers, un-paralled since the days of Robert Muldoon’s “Think Big” projects.The submission is written a bit tongue-in-cheek. But it’s irreverent because the FTAB is in itself not worthy of respect. ...
One Could Reduce Child Poverty At No Fiscal CostFollowing the Richardson/Shipley 1990 ‘redesign of the welfare state’ – which eliminated the universal Family Benefit and doubled the rate of child poverty – various income supplements for families have been added, the best known being ‘Working for Families’, introduced in 2005. ...
Buzz from the Beehive A few days ago, Point of Order suggested the media must be musing “on why Melissa is mute”. Our article reported that people working in the beleaguered media industry have cause to yearn for a minister as busy as Melissa Lee’s ministerial colleagues and we drew ...
1. What was The Curse of Jim Bolger?a. Winston Peters b. Soon after shaking his hand, world leaders would mysteriously lose office or shuffle off this mortal coilc. Could never shake off the Mother of All Budgetsd. Dandruff2. True or false? The Chairman of a Kiwi export business has asked the ...
Jack Vowles writes – New Zealand is said to be suffering from ‘serious populist discontent’. An IPSOS MORI survey has reported that we have an increasing preference for strong leaders, think that the economy is rigged toward the rich and powerful, and political elites are ignoring ‘hard-working people’. ...
Chris Trotter writes – MELISSA LEE should be deprived of her ministerial warrant. Her handling – or non-handling – of the crisis engulfing the New Zealand news media has been woeful. The fate of New Zealand’s two linear television networks, a question which the Minister of Broadcasting, Communications ...
TL;DR: The podcast above features co-hosts and , along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, and on climate change.The six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the ...
Policymakers rarely wish to make plain or visible their desire to dismantle environmental policy, least of all to the young. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent ...
I like to keep an eye on what’s happening in places like the UK, the US, and over the ditch with our good mates the Aussies. Let’s call them AUKUS, for want of a better collective term. More on that in a bit.It used to be, not long ago, that ...
TL;DR: The global economy will be one fifth smaller than it would have otherwise been in 2050 as a result of climate damage, according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published in the journal Nature. (See more detail and analysis below, and ...
New Zealand is said to be suffering from ‘serious populist discontent’. An IPSOS MORI survey has reported that we have an increasing preference for strong leaders, think that the economy is rigged toward the rich and powerful, and political elites are ignoring ‘hard-working people’. The data is from February this ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters is understood to be planning a major speech within the next fortnight to clear up the confusion over whether or not New Zealand might join the AUKUS submarine project. So far, there have been conflicting signals from the Government. RNZ reported the Prime Minister yesterday in ...
Life throws curveballs, and sometimes, those curveballs necessitate wiping your iPhone clean and starting anew. Whether you’re facing persistent software glitches, preparing to sell your device, or simply wanting a fresh start, knowing how to factory reset iPhone without a computer is a valuable skill. While using a computer with ...
Gone are the days when communication was limited to landline phones and physical proximity. Today, computers have become powerful tools for connecting with people across the globe through voice and video calls. But with a plethora of applications and methods available, how to call someone on a computer might seem ...
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The operating system (OS) is the heart and soul of a computer, orchestrating every action and interaction between hardware and software. But have you ever wondered where on a computer is the operating system generally stored? The answer lies in the intricate dance between hardware and software components, particularly within ...
Laptops have become essential tools for work, entertainment, and communication, offering portability and functionality. However, with rising energy costs and growing environmental concerns, understanding a laptop’s power consumption is more important than ever. So, how many watts does a laptop use? The answer, unfortunately, isn’t straightforward. It depends on several ...
Screen recording has become an essential tool for various purposes, such as creating tutorials, capturing gameplay footage, recording online meetings, or sharing information with others. Fortunately, Dell laptops offer several built-in and external options for screen recording, catering to different needs and preferences. This guide will explore various methods on ...
A cracked or damaged laptop screen can be a frustrating experience, impacting productivity and enjoyment. Fortunately, laptop screen repair is a common service offered by various repair shops and technicians. However, the cost of fixing a laptop screen can vary significantly depending on several factors. This article delves into the ...
Gaming laptops represent a significant investment for passionate gamers, offering portability and powerful performance for immersive gaming experiences. However, a common concern among potential buyers is their lifespan. Unlike desktop PCs, which allow for easier component upgrades, gaming laptops have inherent limitations due to their compact and integrated design. This ...
The annual inventory report of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions has been released, showing that gross emissions have dropped for the third year in a row, to 78.4 million tons: All-told gross emissions have decreased by over 6 million tons since the Zero Carbon Act was passed in 2019. ...
Experiencing a locked computer can be frustrating, especially when you need access to your files and applications urgently. The methods to unlock your computer will vary depending on the specific situation and the type of lock you encounter. This guide will explore various scenarios and provide step-by-step instructions on how ...
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The absolute brass neck of this guy.We want more medical doctors, not more spin doctors, Luxon was saying a couple of weeks ago, and now we’re told the guy has seven salaried adults on TikTok duty. Sorry, doing social media. The absolute brass neck of it. The irony that the ...
Buzz from the Beehive Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones relishes spatting and eagerly takes issue with environmentalists who criticise his enthusiasm for resource development. He relishes helping the fishing industry too. And so today, while the media are making much of the latest culling in the public service to ...
Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
Chris Trotter writes – The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three. ...
Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blogIn 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
Citizen Science writes – Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
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This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
Karl du Fresne writes – There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
David Farrar writes – The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time.A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
The Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...
The Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...
Māori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...
The Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...
Changes to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...
The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Sievers, Research Fellow, Global Wetlands Project, Australia Rivers Institute, Griffith University Chris Brown Humans love the coast. But we love it to death, so much so we’ve destroyed valuable coastal habitat – in the case of some types of habitat, ...
Josh Thomson on the 80s milk ad jingle he can’t stop singing, the beauty of The Simpsons, why Jersey Shore is as good as Shakespeare and more. For someone who spends a lot of time on our screens, popping up in everything from 7 Days to Taskmaster, Educators to Good ...
In apparent defiance of the Biden administration, the Netanyahu government has now initiated missile strikes against Iran. Last Saturday night (Sunday morning in New Zealand) Iran launched more than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles against Israeli military targets. With the assistance of US, UK and possibly French forces, ...
Māori representation brings a perspective that encompasses not only the interests of Māori communities but also a broader, holistic approach to environmental stewardship and community well-being, principles deeply embedded in Te Ao Māori (the Māori ...
This week in Auckland, a group of young people took over the microphone at a ministerial press conference, to explain why they oppose the Fast-Track Approvals Bill. One young woman said, ‘We’re here because we love Aotearoa New Zealand. We want to raise our children in an environment that’s thriving, ...
The summer was wonderful. Evie was wonderful, too; finally a teenager, finally worthy of long, hot days. She shaved her legs for the first time and bought cut-off shorts from the op-shop that made them look long. She got a Warehouse singlet so tight on her new shape that her ...
When Thomas James was on his solo camp as part of Outward Bound, the keen outdoorsman didn’t find it too challenging, as others often do. In what might just be the perfect illustration of his character, he saw it as a great opportunity to solve a few problems. “I thought, ...
From the unstable and drippy to the hi-tech and pretty, here’s our ranking of all the tunnels you can drive through in this country. The first tunnel seems to have been built in 2200BC in Babylonia, kicking off a global phenomenon for digging holes in order to get places more ...
Lucinda Bennett on the art of being greedy but resourceful. This is an excerpt from our weekly food newsletter, The Boil Up. When I picture the market, it is always this time of year. Crisp air, dripping nose, counting coins with cold fingers. Sunlight pale, filtered through specks of dew still ...
Zoë Colling’s favourite piece in the ‘That’s So Last Century’ collection is a lubrication chart for a sewing machine from the ’60s. It’s about the size of a postcard, and carefully maintained. “I like it that this piece of ephemera highlights that manual and technical side of the skill involved ...
Kia Ora Gaza A passionate haka reverberated through Auckland International Airport as a medical team of three New Zealand doctors received an emotional farewell from a big crowd of supporters before flying to Turkey to join the international Freedom Flotilla to Gaza. The doctors, who left Auckland yesterday, hope to ...
With submissions closing today, Macassey-Pickard says groups around the country have been supporting a huge range of people to make their submissions. ...
Our response to the new legislation is informed by targeted conversations with practitioners working in the system and through an implementation lens. ...
The new ‘Fast-track Approvals Bill’ would give just three Ministers the power to approve or deny development projects. They would avoid the usual checks and balances that are in place to protect rivers, land, the ocean, and communities. ...
COMMENTARY:By Eugene Doyle Helen Clark, how I miss you. The former New Zealand Prime Minister — the safest pair of hands this country has had in living memory — gave a masterclass on the importance of maintaining an independent foreign policy when she spoke at an AUKUS symposium held ...
The government's released the list of organisations provided with information on how to apply - just hours before public submissions on the bill close. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Before climate change really got going, eastern Australia’s flash floods tended to concentrate on our coastal regions, east of the Great Dividing Range. But that’s changing. Now ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Finkel, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University Sia Duff / South Australian Museum In February, the South Australian Museum “re-imagined” itself. In the face of rising costs and inadequate government funds, CEO David Gaimster, who took the reins last June, declared ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Pearce, Professor, School of Allied Heath, Human Services & Sport, La Trobe University, La Trobe University This week, Collingwood AFL player Nathan Murphy announced his retirement, brought on by his concussion history and ongoing issues. The 24-year-old’s seemingly sudden retirement, ...
The Mental Health Foundation provides support and resources for those facing the loss of their job, so it’s wrong in the very week the Government adds another 1000 jobs to its tally of cuts, that this is happening. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney Daniel Boud/Sydney Theatre Company Decay, terror, revulsion. These are three of the central themes of Thomas Bernhard’s rarely performed play The President. The Austrian is one of the greatest ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ye In (Jane) Hwang, Postdoctoral Research Associate at School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock You’d be hard pressed to find any aspect of daily life that doesn’t require some form of digital literacy. We need only to look back ten ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says threats by ministers Shane Jones and David Seymour to reform or close down the Waitangi Tribunal were “ill-considered”, as legal experts say the ministers may have breached Cabinet Manual conventions. “I think those comments are ill-considered and we expect all ministers to actually exercise good ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Newton, Professor of Exercise Medicine, Edith Cowan University Pexels/RDNE stock project You’re not in your 20s or 30s anymore and you know regular health checks are important. So you go to your GP. During the appointment they measure your waist. ...
A new poem by Evangeline Riddiford Graham. Mitochondrial Problem I. It was long drive to Kansas for the man and his dog but you have to understand he said She doesn’t fly. Which calls to mind not carsick shitting barking or whining but a dog who chooses not to as ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38)Hot off the press, this debut ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Wajnryb McDonald, PhD candidate in Criminology, University of Sydney Less than 24 hours after Ashlee Good was murdered in Bondi Junction, her family released a statement requesting the media take down photographs they had reproduced of Ashlee and her family without ...
Chief executive Shaun Robinson said it has not had any government funding cut, but government-funded contracts have not kept pace with rising costs. ...
The Ministry of Health has delayed the release of its evidence brief on the safety, reversibility and mental health and wellbeing outcomes for puberty blockers. While we wait, Julia de Bres speaks to those with firsthand experience. Best practice gender-affirming healthcare is based on trans people’s self-determination and agency. The ...
Barcelona’s city streets have gone from traffic-clogged to pedestrian-friendly. How? Superblocks. Ellen Rykers explains. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week I read a great interview with renowned urbanist Janette Sadik-Khan by The Spinoff’s Wellington editor Joel MacManus: “You can reimagine streets, ...
Student groups ‘Climate Action VUW’, Schools Strike 4 Climate and VUWSA will be on the street in Wellington today, the last day for submissions on the Fast-track Approvals Bill, with a message that the fight against the Government’s ‘War on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University Since 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has grown exponentially – and so has the formidable organisational machine of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Associate Professor of Education (Adjunct) & Senior Manager (BCE), Charles Sturt University During COVID almost all Australian students and their families experienced online learning. But while schools have long since gone back to in-person teaching, online learning has not gone ...
Yes, they’re better for the environment. No, that’s not a good enough reason for me to use them. Once every 26 days or so, my period arrives, and if struck by an act of God, I am caught red-crotched without products. How, after 17 years of this, do I still ...
“It will cause significant harm to our environment and communities. It is completely at odds with New Zealanders’ relationship with nature and our need for a low-carbon, sustainable economic future." ...
The Chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki, has warned a Parliamentary Select Committee that fast-tracking legislation is a perilous practice that undermines the core tenets of democracy, transparency, and accountability. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Associate Professor, Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Since coming into power, the coalition government has adopted a simple but shrewd see-how-fast-we-can-move political strategy. However, in the health sector this need for speed entails ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Hronis, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney Darya Sannikova/Pexels Whether you’re watching TV, attending a footy game, or eating a meal at your local pub, gambling is hard to escape. Although the rise of gambling is not unique to Australia, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Wong, Forrest Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia Have you ever wondered if there are more insects out at night than during the day? We set out to answer this question by combing through the scientific ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol T Kulik, Research Professor, University of South Australia IR Stone/Shutterstock In Australia, it’s not the done thing to know – let alone ask – what our colleagues are paid. Yet, it’s easy to see how pay transparency can make pay ...
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is sounding a warning to migrants, that running foul of the law may see them leaving the country prematurely. ...
The government’s plan to get 50,000 people off jobseeker support by 2030 has had a rocky start, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Beneficiary numbers are up – and so are ...
Raglan Roast is a staple of Wellington coffee culture. But with five branches across the capital, which one is the best? I am a die-hard Raglan Roast fan. It’s consistently the most affordable cafe in Wellington, and one of the only places you can get a coffee after 3pm. So, ...
Residents of University of Auckland halls are being urged to withhold their accommodation fees from May 1, in a bid to force the university to take student concerns over rent hikes seriously.The University of Auckland is facing a strike from students over the cost of on-campus accommodation. The Students ...
Hineaupounamu ‘Missy’ Nuku has been scaling mountains in Canada for her college basketball team, the Lakeland Rustlers. Alberta is currently home for the 20-year-old point guard, who is in her first year of a scholarship at Lakeland College, where she is studying for a business degree. She has certainly made ...
New Zealand and the Philippines have signed a new maritime security agreement and stated their concerns over activity in the South China Sea, as Chinese vessels continue to flout international law. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos committed to signing a Mutual Logistics Supporting Arrangement by ...
The thousands of government “back-office” job cuts are causing widespread pain in the capital city. In today’s episode of The Detail, we speak to three journalists and a think tank researcher, looking at the larger picture around the cuts and what effect it will have on Wellington, a city that’s ...
Opinion: The famed American architect and urban designer Daniel Burnham once said, “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood!” Burnham wouldn’t have been referring to the transport plans in Aotearoa New Zealand over the past five years; projects so big they hadn’t the credibility to ...
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Opinion: With maths understanding at 42 percent for Year 8 students, there’s no doubt something has to be done. But how? The post Financial literacy should be on all of us appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra When ASIO boss Mike Burgess delivered his annual threat assessment earlier this year, he stressed the rising danger posed by espionage and foreign interference. “In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed ...
The best way for Labour to help National is to encourage their ministers to appear incompetent in public. The strategy seems to be working well:
His confidence that the general public will better at getting clarity on the new rules than he himself could be misplaced. However, sending the tacit signal to National that he believers the average voter is quicker on the uptake than he is seems an excellent example of bipartisanship. Will they grab this plum he has tossed at them and run with it?
Hipkins could have brain fog from Covid. Needs to refresh the traffic light rules before he presents. Just because the mask rules have changed in some situations there is nothing stopping a person from wearing a mask if they choose to.
To be fair, Hipkins is the Labour minister I like and respect the most.
He seems earnest and hard-working.
And he doesn't shy away from interviews even with the likes of HDPA and Hosking who tend try to eviscerate him. Yet he always responds in a cheery fashion, and tries to answer the questions in an open and honest way.
Having a cheerful disposition helps. Being open & honest puts him above the PM currently. Fronting up for hostile interviews is even more meritorious.
Problem: fronting the change to the pandemic management system at a press conference requires a grasp of the changes being made. He failed on that count.
A PM's rating of ministerial performance is based on the minister's ability to get the elementary facts right when media ask about them.
I agree, IMO Hipkins is the best performing Labour MP and as you say, always fronts up to interviews. I just think he is too busy with both Covid and Education so things slip through the cracks as he is too stretched. I think Jacinda would give him Poto Williams' portfolios too if she could, as she is clearly not coping, but he's too busy.
Bomber's too optimistic.
If they adopt it, no way will they get 7%. If they scrape in with 5% it will be a considerable surprise to me. I'm picking 4%, perhaps 3.5%. He's likely to be right about James deciding enough's enough though.
And hey, discrimination against males is cool in the GP will be the verdict that turns voters off. Why is this not obvious to the Green Caucus & Exceutive already?? They can blather until they’re blue in the face that the rule change doesn’t thus discriminate. Technically correct is not a win – perception defeats reality!
Come election this term, James Shaw will be the only Green MP to have achieved anything. The rest have just dragged.
I have a lot of confidence he will land his portfolio well.
If he walks he will go straight to something useful in Wellington like DPMC or KPMG.
Jan Logie did achieve having some birth injuries being covered by ACC. Logie is currently chipping away at the ACC sensitive claims process. It is brutal, repetitive and slow.
Davidson has not done well with emergency housing. Now that the country has opened up I expect rents will rise and there will be less capacity in motels for emergency housing. The shortage and cost of building materials is also a concern. People will stay in a rental longer due to this.
Agreed Ad. Shaw has been the Green's major asset since Metiria left.
The Greens are polling 10%-doing fine.
Bomber is stirring, as is Trotter, who has always hated the Greens (and seems to be thick with Bomber).
https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2022/04/eighty-one-thousand-votes.html
It'll be interesting to see how the Green party membership votes regards list ranking and co leadership.
It will demonstrate how the majority of members feel about the tinkering
Also, we'll see how the SGM pans out, and which recommendations are approved
I’ve been a TOP voter for the last 2 elections – kind of a protest vote. But practically I think the Greens have the best chance of leading Aotearoa to a more just system of redistribution of wealth.
Their identity bollocks is bloody annoying divisive and alienating tho. Despite that, I am inclined to hold my nose and vote Green for a better chance of fairer taxation, benefits, and investment in the future.
Labour’s incrementalism doesn’t cut it.
Me too
What would a Russian victory in Ukraine look like?
Russia's ally in Syria gives us a some idea of what Ukraine under Russian occupation would be like.
Don't support fascism. (It really shouldn't have to be said).
Syria is not an "occupied" country. As far as I know it has its own government.
Disappearances of citizens with no trial are a hall mark of fascist states.
The policy of abducting of political activists and journalists and elected representatives common in Assad’s Syria, are now being carried in areas of occupied Ukraine by Russian forces.
You are the fascists!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgmKygmkqSA&ab_channel=RadioFreeEurope%2FRadioLiberty
A fascist state is one that is ruled by fascists. As far as I know Russia does not rule any part of Ukraine.
Mikesh, "as far as you know" is not very far..
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
Russia seized control of most of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, except for the northern areas of the Arabat Spit and the Syvash, which were still ruled by Ukraine right up until February this year when Russia forcibly occupied and imposed their rule on these last bits of Crimea as well.
Some other parts of Ukraine in the Donbas region, are also effectively ruled from Russia. Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is ruled by Russia-backed separatists, led by far right Russian Nationalists and neo-nazis, with state backing from Russia.
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
For your information, Crimea is part of Russia. Crimea has been been part of Russia for 300 years, and it was returned to Russia in 2014 with the consent of the Crimean people, the majority of whom are Russian anyway.
I think the transfer of Crimea in 1954 was effected by the Soviet Union, not by Russia. Russia and the Soviet Union were of course separate entities, and the latter no longer exists
It is your knowledge, I think, which does not "extend very far".
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
Russia has Neo-Nazis, as has every country probably, but they have no influence on government. It is actually the Ukraine that is led by Neo-Nazis. Zelenskyy himself campaigned on a "peace" policy, and I think that that is a policy he would have preferred to have followed, but the Nazi faction in the Ukraine, I think, wouldn't let him, so instead he was forced to continue the bombing of the Eastern regions. Not only that but he (was forced?) to endorse a policy aimed at conquering Crimea – a policy which Putin could scarcely be expected to countenance – and I think that ultimately this was the policy that led to the invasion.
The men of the Donbas "republic",incidentally, are not Nazis, just men unwilling to live under Ukraine's Nazi rule. This war actually started in 2014 when the democratically elected president, Viktor Yanokovich, was illegally deposed by the Ukraine's Nazi element. It was at that point that they started to seek autonomy.
Quite obviously the flattening of cities is not a big issue for you.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Unless you think Ukraine is flattening its own cities to discredit Russia.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Bombing of Warsaw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE9R-3OV4jg
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
The illegal ousting of Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 was engineered by fascists, so clearly they have sufficient influence to be able to pull strings.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
True. Simply imposing a label never justifies anything.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Abhorent, I agree. But it "takes two to tango". The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion; which clearly they did.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Irrelevant.
The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion;
I should have added that this war might well have ended a lot sooner had the USA and GB not been supplying the Ukrainians eith weapons. And it may not even have started if the Ukranians had not been able to anticipate such assistance. So the burden of guilt would have to fall on the USA and GB also.
In case you hadn't noticed, the Ukrainians are fighting a proxy war on behalf of Uncle Sam.
Principled rightists are rare beasts but one just resigned as Conservative justice minister in the UK due to govt delinquency:
With Labour governments in the UK now being virtually impossible due to FPP, Scottish nationalism and a corporate media environment that is relentlessly hostile to them – politics is now reduced to which faction of the Tory party is in power.
It is a contest between the 'levelling up' nationalists wanting to make Britain great again, project power globally and not averse to governments doing stuff and spending money (Johnson faction) – and the swivel-eyed neoliberal loons of the 'Singapore on Thames' mob.(Sunak faction).
Depressing and boring all round.
Depressing and boring all round.
Hard to argue with that. Starmer does seem notably centrist however – which we could translate as electable. Not that his likely default to a neoliberal agenda would please many other than as least/worst option. But you're right to imply that tories must implode to get that scenario activated. Boris is a scrapper. Opinion polls trending down for him would be a signal to watch for.
People seem to forget, ignore or stick their fingers in their ears and go lalala that England is predominantly a centre right country and has been since '79. All hard left labour leaders since have led the party to record breaking defeats.
It's like these "turn labour left" people have no idea of the real state of play in politics. It might not be what's needed, or desired by the more politically engaged, but winning the trust of the middle and dragging them left without scaring the voters away is the only way right wing conservatism can be kept from running amok unchecked. Add in a virtual monopoly of right leaning media it makes party messaging even more vital than ever. One has to be in it to win it.
“Edwina Currie boasts ‘I don’t care’ Boris Johnson broke law because Tories will win anyway”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/edwina-currie-boasts-i-dont-26700483
Agreed, I think it is now 44! years since a Labour leader not named Blair has been voted in as PM
People switch off and disengage. Voter turnout tumbles. Mission accomplished.
I commented the other day on the nuclear weapon's strategy of mutually assured destruction and how the policy can no longer be relied on in the context of current events (if it ever could have been previously).
Refreshingly, here is someone who knows what they are talking about saying similar things.
The MAD (appropriate acronymn!!) strategy assumed a that major actors would be rational and would care for their own lives, and that of their population, and hence would not resort to the use of such weapons.
The problem is that Putin, in a nefariously rational way, is threatening use of weapons if other nations go too far in terms of trying to stop him getting his way. Thus, nuclear weapons have suddenly become a major problem when a major power uses nuclear weapons to bully other nations into acquiescing to his demands and actions no matter how horrific they are.
The problem being that if that sort of behaviour is tolerated, then it will continue to be repeated until the bully nation gets all it wants.
This is a very thorny problem without any obvious solution. To me, it seems nuclear war is almost unavoidable at some point in the future with this sort of cavalier attitude.
Once we get through the current crisis, I think this is an issue world leaders will need to address.
One solution I proposed the other day, was that the super powers could agree to disband nuclear weapons in favour of large thermobaric ones if they still want to maintain a MAD policy. Those weapons have city-killing potential without the nuclear fall-out problems that could kill civilisation. So would do the job of MAD without the wider implications.
Perhaps that could be a first step to total de-escalation and move towards a much more sustainable future of peace and co-operation.
Yes. If Putin wants to invade eastern Poland or the Baltic states for instance – exactly what would stop him if he recycles the same successful tactic? This has been the gorilla in the living room from the very start of this Ukrainian butchery.
In doing this Putin stepped over a line – he has essentially said that he is the greater madman, that he believes it is worth ending civilisation to obtain his goals. Effectively he is now a greater monster than Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and Hitler combined. You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West – and there is the very real possibility he is so unhinged that he is willing to end the world to achieve it. If there is any truth to the idea that Alexandr Dugin has and is influencing his beliefs then we have to take this possibility seriously.
The lazy strategy in response is to hope for an internal coup to topple him. Small odds of success in my view.
The next strategy is to call his bluff as the West has been doing in a proportionate fashion, arming Ukraine and aiding with intelligence and imposing sanctions. The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world. Gradually ramping up the military pressure without triggering a nuclear response. This is the ‘ how lucky do you feel punk’ plan.
The third strategy that would be the most dramatic, but could be the most profound. A global Mexican standoff – an open declaration that at the moment the first Russian nuke of any size is detonated anywhere that there will be an immediate, unconstrained launch of every western nuclear weapon onto not only Russia but onto every nation aligned with them.
There is only one feasible, enduring solution to this threat – that the nations cede their power to commit war and their surrender their nuclear weapons in toto to a global body. The only way to ensure this happens now is through fear of the consequences of failing to do so.
At the outset such a global body would be deeply imperfect, it would still be riven by contention and conflict between the democratic and authoritarian powers. It would still lack a universal embracing of a moral principle to guide it, it would struggle to attain an authentic democratic accountability. But if the alternative was extinction we might just have to swallow the largest rodent in all of human history and do it.
You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West
Really?? I doubt it. But if so, Ukraine would have to be seen as aiding him by providing him with a justifiable target with which to start such a project.
"The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world."
The Ukranians claim they have just scored a damaging hit on the Russian missile cruiser, the Moskva. Still awaiting independent confirmation of that. But if true, would make the Russians feel a bit nervous about their other ships near Ukraine.
Red, you would enjoy some of the podcasts on youtube by Peter Zeihan, a really insightful geopolitical analyst.
He thinks it is unlikely that Russia will use a tactical nuke in Ukraine (though not ruling it out entirely). His view is that if Russia were to do that, one of the consequences would be that every Nato nation would very quickly have nuclear missiles on their countries pointing directly at Russia.
So, hopefully, the use of a tactical nuke isn't so likely. And hopefully, Putin still fears MAD, and is just bluffing in that respect.
Further to my post above, it looks like something drastic has happened on the Russian flag ship, the Moskva.
Apparently the Russians are saying that a fire on board caused ammunition to detonate meaning that the crew was evacuated. According the Ukranians, they have hit it with neptune missiles.
Be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic.
A warship is built in 1979. Suddenly, after 43 years of operation without catching fire, and a few hours after Ukraine claims to have hit it with missiles, Russia says it had an 'onboard fire' and 'ammunition explosion' without admitting any attack! Quite the coincidence there.
For amusing mockery of Russian lies and evil behaviour, I recommend Darth Putin and Sputnik_not
I smiled to myself reading your mention of taking out a cruiser on the black sea as it was already done.
Dear Moskva,
No really, go fuck yourself.
– Ukraine
Already a precedent for it
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Unconditional surrender
We tolerated it
Yes. In my opinion, that was the worst war crime in the history of the world.
However, I think that so horrified the world, that it led to the MAD doctrine, given that other countries had also developed nukes.
I the world needs to be horrified in a similar way again to move towards planet-saving change.
See above.
It doesn't matter what type of weapon levels cities, we're already witnessing the levelling of cities.
Our youth are already traumatised enough, by the adults in the room and their indifference and the pandemic, global warming, no path to a bright future, and now this Putin psycho. You reckon lobbing a nuke will help? Sounds desperate. Take a breath.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped. But violence begets trauma begets violence, and the hate lives on.
We can’t break a cycle of grudges with a nuke.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped.
Indeed. I am all ears.
What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.
With the use of these bombs Japan would not have been forced to surrender until the country was wiped out.
What are you talking about? Regurgitating US myths – next you'll tell us that WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/education/008/expertclips/010
Oh well so nuclear weapons are not so scary after all. Whatever were we thinking.
I'm guessing this means NATO can now go ahead and enter Ukraine and crush the Russians with impunity.
Please point out where I said or implied any of that. I was refuting an entirely different claim.
Quite a ridiculous stretch, I expect an apology and a retraction.
Why would they? Oh, of course, I forgot. This is a proxy war fought on behalf of Uncle Sam.
The war in Europe was lost without Lend Lease and US industrial might.
Churchill had just raised his glass for the concluding toast when
Stalin requested the privilege of proposing one more toast—to the
President and people of the United States:
This generous tribute prompted Roosevelt to ask for the last word.
He talked about the diversity of political complexions around the
banquet table which, he said, reminded him of the rainbow, to Ameri
cans “a symbol of good fortune and of hope.” The President con
tinued:
W. Averell Harriman – Special Envoy to Churchill and Stalin, 1941-1946
First of all, I want to say about the words of Stalin, which he repeated several times when we had "free conversations" among ourselves. He directly said that if the United States had not helped us, we would not have won this war: face to face with Nazi Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and lost the war.
Nikita Khrushchev – Post-war reflections
http://militera.lib.ru/memo/russian/khruschev1/28.html
Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”
https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-to-the-soviet-union-1941-1945/
That's right, the US contributed greatly but the insertion of US armed forces was not the sole reason behind victory in Europe, it required a large number people and governments, you know, the Allied powers, working together. Funny that.
“What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.”
I think that explanation was a nonsense argument, providing cognitive dissonance to justify the horror of what happened.
The US could have chosen a much slower but far less damaging method to achieve the same end. For instance, blockading all of Japans ports until they surrendered. There wasn't any need for any more US or Japanese to die.
First of all, you are assuming that the Japanese would have surrendered if subject to blockade – an outcome completely unpredictable in 1945 and completely at variance with the fanatical resistance of the Japanese up to that point. The use of atomic weapons acted as a circuit breaker that gave the Japanese a way out.
Second, you are dismissing the mass starvation that would have been caused by a blockade. The chances are many more, potentially running to the millions, could have starved to death (including large numbers of Allied POWs being held by the Japanese in Japan) than those who died in the nuclear attacks.
Third you are not considering the considerable political impetus to use nuclear weapons in 1945. Consider this. It is December 1945, and you are a US Congressman attending a rally. An angry mother demands to know why her son was killed two days ago in a Kamikaze attack on his blockading cruiser when the United States had possessed for many months a wonder weapon of enormous power, but hadn't chosen to use it. Another man chimes in, saying he had heard via the Red Cross his son, a POW since 1942, had starved to death in November. He also wants to know why the government hadn't used this weapon on an enemy everyone (after three years of propaganda) agreed were little more than sentient Monkeys and saved his boy. No elected politician would want to answer those questions and if you were that congressman you'd be really, really pissed at any president who didn't use said wonder weapon at the earliest opportunity.
It is all very well to sit back eighty years later and make rational arguments when in full possession of the facts but people in 1945 neither had all the facts or even if they had were disposed to give a brutal, dehumanised and merciless enemy any benefit of the doubt whatsoever.
The Germans terror bombed Warsaw and Rotterdam, and they got Hamburg and Dresden. The Japanese brutalised Allied POWs and fought with merciless savagery and they got Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is how the remorseless escalation of violence in war work.
You may be right. And we are looking back 80 years. Which is why I am not into "whataboutism" because most countries these days try to do everything possible to avoid the use of nukes.
But, I still see the deliberate targeting of civilian populations with nuclear weapons has to be, by definition, the ultimate expression of a war crime.
Sure, nukes were the shiny new thing back then, and people didn't know the full implications of them. But I still think there were much more peaceful options available.
Another option may have been to have a demonstration of nuke at sea so the Japanese could see what might be in store for them if they continued the fight.
The threat of something is often more effective than actually doing it. That is because the Japanese, including its leaders, would have no idea who the target of the weapon might be, if it were actually used.
I just don't accept that the use of nukes on civilian populations had to be the only option considered. What would we say today if Russia did that to say, Kiev?
I think you are ascribing far to much thinking and nuance to a political process that basically went like this: "We've got the bomb, they don't, lets nuke 'em – they deserve it – and end this damn war quickly. Oh and while we are it at the same time show the Commies in Moscow they should be afraid, very afraid".
The secondary debate about morality and how many people might have died either way was left for philosophers, theologians and historians at a later date.
As for the Russian maybe using nuclear weapons – these are now understood to be weapons of last resort, for use only in retaliation for an existential nuclear attack. Russia would gain nothing by using nuclear weapons except to create an exceptional risk of total annihilation. Putin is as crazy as a cut snake, so who knows how far he is prepared to go but the United States has made 100% crystal clear it would respond in kind to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine.
The blockade idea was actually working – not cruisers, but US submarines had basically obliterated maritime traffic of all sizes around the Home Islands. It was just a matter of time until surrender.
But also, I haven't seen any example of any part of US government that was in the know even considering not using the Bomb. Some had the vengeance thing going, others wanted to see its effects, some wanted it as a warning to the Soviets, but these all seem to be "add-on" motives. The Bomb was going to be dropped, lots of folks could see positive angles for their own policy area or bugbear, but not dropping it doesn't seem to have seriously occurred to anyone.
Well, you don't spend two billion in 1940s dollars for something you are not going to use.
The Japanese surrender was not precipitated by the nukes, but by Russia's rejection of a conditional surrender.
Once Russia entered the war in the East, Japan had no options left short of unconditional surrender. But the bureaucracy was a little slow, as it was with the declaration of war prior to Pearl Harbour.
Winners don’t commit war crimes.
As an aside, while the Manhatten project cost two billion the cost to develop the B-29 bomber was three billion so the two atomic bombs and their delivery system represented a massive investment.
In context, it was the equivalent at the time of forty fleet aircraft carriers complete with their air groups.
The B29 killed more people with incendiaries than the Silverplate mod did with nukes.
It's a little-known fact that the delivery platform cost more than the device, but it's a mistake to add the two together.
Yes this is effectively what Putin is doing, threatening nuclear extinction and using as cover to achieve the unconditional surrender of first Ukraine – then Europe.
Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack. Plus Xi has not yet made his public move.
Putin has appointed a new military leader who openly prefers the standard Soviet siege strategy of slowly surrounding, starving and shelling opponents into surrender regardless of casualties.
As per Mariupol. Big success.
Mariupol has held out for six weeks (so far).
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565, when after very heavy losses to his army he stood on the smoking ruins of the desperately defended small fort of St. Elmo and looked across the bay at the solid walls of Fort St Angelo:
“If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
Well yes that is also a reasonable argument.
The critical strategic advantage now lies with Ukraine:
As others have said Poots has run out of easy options – only hard ones are left.
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I'm not sure the 1565 Great Seige of Malta by the Ottoman Turks will necessarily be sitting uppermost in the minds of Russian strategists at the moment.
Nor will the 1315 Battle of Morgarten, in which the independence-seeking Swiss ambushed Duke Leopold I's well-trained army of Hapsburg mercenaries on the shores of Lake Ageri with Louis X of France exclaiming: “They appear outraged by the ban imposed by the Bishop of Bern's emissaries yet are reluctant to act for fear of Schwyz violence”.
I'd aver the Ruskies will also pay little, if any, heed to the position of the Luftwaffe in 1945, the 1240 Sacking of Sandomierz during the first Mongol invasion of Poland, in which the Abbot of Koprzywnica and all his monks were brutally murdered with boiling molasses, the position the French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps found itself in towards the end of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War, the predicament of the German High Seas fleet after the Battle of Jutland in 1916, of which an American journalist observed – “the German fleet has assaulted its jailer, but it is still in jail”, the position of the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty in northern China on the eve of the 1211 Battle of Yehuling where the Mongol Empire forces of Genghis Khan ultimately prevailed, albeit at the cost of weakening certain allied tribes …
Nor, for that matter, do I suspect Russian strategists will currently be pondering lessons to be learned from the decidedly gruesome 1676 Sea Battle of the Faroes, in which the combined maritime forces of Denmark & Norway under King Frederick V were massacred in a surprise axe-wielding ship invasion by men serving under the rebellious Icelandic Sea Captain & former Pirate Ólafur Halldór Gunnarsson.
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Very funny – but now you are just showing off.
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All genuine battles & seiges, RL, with valuable life-lessons for Sanc to imbibe & learn … except, perhaps, the last-mentioned axe-wielding homicidal Icelandic maniac … that was probably just wishful thinking …
… also not entirely sure there was ever a French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps on reconnaissance duties during the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War … but, by the same token, we can't completely rule it out either.
And I would not want you to. Sounds far too delicious.
Mar figures inflation
Lithuania 15.9%
Latvia 11.5%
Estonia 15.2%
Poland 11%
Germany 7.3% (wholesale 22.2%)
Euro depreciation (us$) 12 months 10%
Ruble depreciation (us$) 8%
“Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack.”
The fact that the Russian army has performed so badly is even more scary.
The point that Peter Zeihan makes is that previously US and NATO strategists expected that the Russians would be very tough opponents in a conventional war. But now it has become very obvious to both NATO and Russia that Russia would be obliterated in any conventional conflict. Thus the only choice for Russia would be a humiliating defeat or resorting immediately to nukes.
Hence, NATO wants to do everything possible to avoid direct conflict with Russia. Which is why they want to bleed Russia dry in Ukraine rather than allow the possibility of Russia succeeding and facing off directly with Poland (a NATO country) as a result.
So if NATO does what you suggest, everyone will look at how long it will take & who pays the cost of the attrition…
I think NATO did originally see it as a war of attrition because they expected that Russia would win the conventional war against Ukraine very quickly, and then NATO would be supporting an insurgency.
However, due to the success of the Ukraine military, and the horrors of the war crimes by Russia, I think the mood has now changed so that NATO would be very happy to see Ukraine soundly beat Russia.
Hence, I think if you look at the various media reports, NATO is now supplying a lot more heavy weapons that have the potential to enable Ukraine defeat Russia outright.
With the attack on the Moskva, Ukraine has opened up a new flank. If the Russian fleet is as much of a paper tiger as other Russian forces, Russian forces besieging Mariupol may find themselves hung out to dry with no lines of supply or retreat.
Xi has his hands full dealing with Omicron and decreased productivity. See what happens in the next month with Covid case numbers in Shanghai.
Tsar Poot's went into Ukraine with a pair 7's to bluff everyone, that he is willing to use his Nukes/ WMD's if they deployed Troops into Ukraine.
His bluff hasn't work nor has hand with a pair 7's as the Ukrainian resolve & it's Security Forces have given him a frightful belting that no one really predicted unless you really understand the doctrine of Territorial Defence.
Poot's is running out of options fast & now it appears the Russian Flag Ship of the Black Fleet has met it's Trafalgar.
If anyone here understand the mindset of a Slavic Male, they don't like losing to inferior people/ nations
To those who have following Tsar Poot's in particular his dark arts from the KGB & you throw in Maskirovka which is almost as old as Russia itself.
Then Tsar Poots Best Bets Form Guide, tells you he is capable of doing it & at 3/1 he will, be it he is winning or when he is at last chance saloon.
9th May is going to be D Day (Victory Day over Nazi Germany) in Russia for Tsar Poot's.
Hmmm, the Moskva is supposed to have a layered air defense of S-300 and 9K33 missiles and 130mm rapid fire (up to 40 RPM) guns and 30mm CIWS as well as a shipload of passive (flares, jammers, chaff) counter-measures yet appears to have been hit by a single, high subsonic anti-ship missile using conventional radar guidance that was probably fired off the back of a Toyota with no counter-measures to support it.
let me guess – The ships systems are either not working and/or not competently crewed and/or completely ineffective and/or the ship was recklessly exposed to a missile strike.
The record since WW2 of surface ships successfully engaging anti-ship missiles is not encouraging for naval types who like to stay dry, yet Navies these days insist on building 10,000 ton "destroyers" as big as pre WW2 treaty cruisers, and probably as vulnerable to missile attack as those earlier ships were to air attack. From the INS Eilat to PNS Khaibar to HMS Sheffield to USS Stark to the Moskva the case against surface ships is building all the time…
As Karl Dönitz said, admirals like big ships, because "you can't parade a band on the deck of a submarine".
Word has its the Ukrainian Military baited them with a couple of those Turkish UAV's & smashed them with 2 Neptune's.
Instead of looking Up, they should've been looking out.
Mao, once said in his wee book for a guerrilla warfare, make noise in the East & attack from the West.
That is a pretty detailed engagement report, your twitter is clearly better than my twitter.
Well it makes sense, if the Ukrainian Military Forces have used those Turkish UAV's again.
In their last attack on Russian Ships, when the Ukrainians drop a couple bombs literally through the hatch (well the Cargo hull was open at the time) onto the vehicle deck that was full bang (ammo) & the valuable Russian Landing Ship went boom.
Here's a detailed report, of what may've happened to that Russia Battlewagon today.
The Ukranian's have literally taken the Territorial Defence Doctrine to a whole new level.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1514498197489659909?t=JoL7vldx57ceoXZJfZyNkg&s=19
The ship is a strategic missile platform,it more then likely does have at least 16 warheads on board in case of Nato intervention,and a switch to strategic defense.
Yes, word is the thing is at the bottom of the sea now. Apparently the single largest loss of life event the Russians have experienced in the war thus far.
This is not going to be ideal for Russian's supply of cruise missiles that they were starting to run short of I think.
I was wondering if there were any nukes on board. Hopefully not.
With a rather large bang.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1514394568405438467
And, technically, an incoming warhead is an "ammunition explosion" in its own right – just Ukrainian ammunition, not Russian…
It's now the biggest Combat Surface Unit to be sunk Post WW2, the previous country was Argentina in the Falklands War. It's Brooklyn Class Crusier was sunk a Pommy SSN ( Nuclear Attack Sub) with a Torpedo dating back to WW2.
When Kruschev said "We will bury you", I don't think he talking about some future military action; I think he meant that the USSR would come to lead the world economically. To bring Europe into some sort of Russian empire that's what Russia would have to do. By themselves I don't think that that would be possible; but with China's help, who knows.
What the actual fuck! England taking lessons in migrant handling from Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/13/priti-patel-finalises-plan-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Unbelievable (quoted from article):
On the other hand maybe not surprising. Surely, there's money to be made by the Tory party donors. The company running the Australian off-shore camp is doing very well from what I've read.
Louisa Wall's valedictory to Parliament today
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/departing-labour-mp-louisa-wall-gives-valedictory-speech-after-claims-she-was-unwanted/LVL373OGWHXXQGGRIUI2AHXCSE/
Looks like she lost the confidence of her colleagues, and read the writing on the "wall". I can see why Manurewa voters do not care for a neoliberal obsessed with identity issues rather than the concerns of her working class electorate. Agree with Sanctuary.