The best way for Labour to help National is to encourage their ministers to appear incompetent in public. The strategy seems to be working well:
The minister responsible for the Covid-19 rules, Chris Hipkins, admitted to a “mind blank” when asked about what the change to ”orange” meant for mask use.
In a jumbled press conference announcing New Zealand’s move from red to orange on the Covid-19 traffic lights system, Hipkins defended rules which allow unmasked party goers to “pash” on the dance floor and had to backtrack after giving incorrect information about mask requirements.
Hipkins initially said “the rules have changed”, and then incorrectly told reporters airlines and bus operators could set their own rules on face masks… Passengers on public transport are still required to wear a mask and the Covid-19 response minister had to correct himself mid-announcement.
Hipkins finished the press conference with a mea culpa and apology: “I did not refresh my memory sufficiently about mask requirements at orange, I apologise for that. That was my mistake.” He insisted the mask rules would be clear for the public, despite initially being confused about the rules.
His confidence that the general public will better at getting clarity on the new rules than he himself could be misplaced. However, sending the tacit signal to National that he believers the average voter is quicker on the uptake than he is seems an excellent example of bipartisanship. Will they grab this plum he has tossed at them and run with it?
Hipkins could have brain fog from Covid. Needs to refresh the traffic light rules before he presents. Just because the mask rules have changed in some situations there is nothing stopping a person from wearing a mask if they choose to.
To be fair, Hipkins is the Labour minister I like and respect the most.
He seems earnest and hard-working.
And he doesn't shy away from interviews even with the likes of HDPA and Hosking who tend try to eviscerate him. Yet he always responds in a cheery fashion, and tries to answer the questions in an open and honest way.
Having a cheerful disposition helps. Being open & honest puts him above the PM currently. Fronting up for hostile interviews is even more meritorious.
Problem: fronting the change to the pandemic management system at a press conference requires a grasp of the changes being made. He failed on that count.
A PM's rating of ministerial performance is based on the minister's ability to get the elementary facts right when media ask about them.
I agree, IMO Hipkins is the best performing Labour MP and as you say, always fronts up to interviews. I just think he is too busy with both Covid and Education so things slip through the cracks as he is too stretched. I think Jacinda would give him Poto Williams' portfolios too if she could, as she is clearly not coping, but he's too busy.
James will go, the new non binary co-leadership model will be adopted, 10 000 people will like it on Twitter and it will lead to the Greens limping home with 7% in 2023.
If they adopt it, no way will they get 7%. If they scrape in with 5% it will be a considerable surprise to me. I'm picking 4%, perhaps 3.5%. He's likely to be right about James deciding enough's enough though.
And hey, discrimination against males is cool in the GP will be the verdict that turns voters off. Why is this not obvious to the Green Caucus & Exceutive already?? They can blather until they’re blue in the face that the rule change doesn’t thus discriminate. Technically correct is not a win – perception defeats reality!
Jan Logie did achieve having some birth injuries being covered by ACC. Logie is currently chipping away at the ACC sensitive claims process. It is brutal, repetitive and slow.
Davidson has not done well with emergency housing. Now that the country has opened up I expect rents will rise and there will be less capacity in motels for emergency housing. The shortage and cost of building materials is also a concern. People will stay in a rental longer due to this.
I’ve been a TOP voter for the last 2 elections – kind of a protest vote. But practically I think the Greens have the best chance of leading Aotearoa to a more just system of redistribution of wealth.
Their identity bollocks is bloody annoying divisive and alienating tho. Despite that, I am inclined to hold my nose and vote Green for a better chance of fairer taxation, benefits, and investment in the future.
What would a Russian victory in Ukraine look like?
Russia's ally in Syria gives us a some idea of what Ukraine under Russian occupation would be like.
A year after “reconciliation”: Arrests and disappearances abound in southern Syria
……Among those arrested was Rateb al-Jabawi, the former head of Jasim local council during the opposition rule. In September 2018, al-Jabawi was taken from his home and arrested by a security service patrol in the city of Jasim. “[His arrest] is one of the most important violations of the settlement deal,” said the former military commander.”
Security and military patrols have also been conducting raids and searches on houses of civilians in the town of Rasm al-Halabi, a village in the countryside of al-Quneitra, and have specifically targeted former members of the Civil Defense (The White Helmets). They have recently arrested two brothers who formerly worked with the White Helmets, Bilal and Ala’a Shubat.
A week before the arrest of the Shubat brothers, three former members of the Civil Defense from the village of Saidah al-Joulan, near the Golan Heights, were kidnapped while traveling between the city of al-Sheikh Maskin and Nawa in the Daraa governorate. Local media outlets accused the Syrian government security forces of being behind the kidnappings….
Disappearances of citizens with no trial are a hall mark of fascist states.
The policy of abducting of political activists and journalists and elected representatives common in Assad’s Syria, are now being carried in areas of occupied Ukraine by Russian forces.
In A Ukrainian Region Occupied By Russian Forces, People Are Disappearing. Locals Fear It's About To Get Worse.
March 16, 2022 17:30 GMT
By Oleksandr Yankovshiv
Volodymyr Mykhavlov
Yevhenia Tokar
On the morning of March 12, just after 9 a.m., Serhiy Tsyhipa said goodbye to his wife and walked out the door of his home in the small southern Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka, along with his dog Ais, to meet colleagues in the next town.
Tsyhipa, a 60-year-old activist, blogger, and vocal opponent of Russia's invasion, was also supposed to drop off some medicine for his mother-in-law.
"He never arrived. He never came home. His phone turned on twice for a few minutes and that's it. I was only able to send voice messages, nothing more," his wife, Olena, told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service.
The same day Tsyhipa disappeared, Oleh Baturin, a reporter for a local news site called Noviy Den, also went missing. His relatives and colleagues are still looking for him…..
In southern Ukraine's Kherson region, people are going missing — most recently on March 16, when armed men seized the mayor and his deputy in the coastal town of Skadovsk and took them away to an undisclosed location….
…..As far as I know Russia does not rule any part of Ukraine.
Mikesh, "as far as you know" is not very far..
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
Russia seized control of most of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, except for the northern areas of the Arabat Spit and the Syvash, which were still ruled by Ukraine right up until February this year when Russia forcibly occupied and imposed their rule on these last bits of Crimea as well.
Some other parts of Ukraine in the Donbas region, are also effectively ruled from Russia. Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is ruled by Russia-backed separatists, led by far right Russian Nationalists and neo-nazis, with state backing from Russia.
….Some have pointed out the far right received only 2% of the vote in Ukraine’s 2019 parliamentary elections, far less than in most of Europe….
….What has received less coverage is the Putin regime’s own record of collaboration with far-right extremists….
…..No less important is the role of neo-Nazis and other right-wing figures in Russia’s onslaught against Ukraine.
….Putin’s weaponisation of neo-Nazis was always a risky strategy, but it was not irrational. Unlike mainstream nationalists, who tend to support the idea of free elections, neo-Nazis reject democratic institutions and the very idea of human equality. For a dictator dismantling democracy and constructing an authoritarian regime, they were ideal accomplices.
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
For your information, Crimea is part of Russia. Crimea has been been part of Russia for 300 years, and it was returned to Russia in 2014 with the consent of the Crimean people, the majority of whom are Russian anyway.
I think the transfer of Crimea in 1954 was effected by the Soviet Union, not by Russia. Russia and the Soviet Union were of course separate entities, and the latter no longer exists
It is your knowledge, I think, which does not "extend very far".
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
Russia has Neo-Nazis, as has every country probably, but they have no influence on government. It is actually the Ukraine that is led by Neo-Nazis. Zelenskyy himself campaigned on a "peace" policy, and I think that that is a policy he would have preferred to have followed, but the Nazi faction in the Ukraine, I think, wouldn't let him, so instead he was forced to continue the bombing of the Eastern regions. Not only that but he (was forced?) to endorse a policy aimed at conquering Crimea – a policy which Putin could scarcely be expected to countenance – and I think that ultimately this was the policy that led to the invasion.
The men of the Donbas "republic",incidentally, are not Nazis, just men unwilling to live under Ukraine's Nazi rule. This war actually started in 2014 when the democratically elected president, Viktor Yanokovich, was illegally deposed by the Ukraine's Nazi element. It was at that point that they started to seek autonomy.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Unless you think Ukraine is flattening its own cities to discredit Russia.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Bombing of Guernica
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
…..The attack gained controversy because it involved the bombing of civilians by a military air force. Seen as a war crime by some historians, and argued as a legitimate attack by others,[1] it was one of the first aerial bombings to capture global attention.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
The illegal ousting of Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 was engineered by fascists, so clearly they have sufficient influence to be able to pull strings.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
True. Simply imposing a label never justifies anything.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Abhorent, I agree. But it "takes two to tango". The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion; which clearly they did.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion;
I should have added that this war might well have ended a lot sooner had the USA and GB not been supplying the Ukrainians eith weapons. And it may not even have started if the Ukranians had not been able to anticipate such assistance. So the burden of guilt would have to fall on the USA and GB also.
In case you hadn't noticed, the Ukrainians are fighting a proxy war on behalf of Uncle Sam.
Principled rightists are rare beasts but one just resigned as Conservative justice minister in the UK due to govt delinquency:
In a letter to Mr Johnson, Lord David Wolfson criticised the "official response" to "repeated rule-breaking". He is the first person to quit the government since reports of lockdown parties emerged.
Barrister Lord Wolfson has been a justice minister since December 2020, with responsibility for human rights and the constitution.
In his resignation letter, Lord Wolfson said the “scale, context and nature” of Covid breaches in government was inconsistent with the rule of law.
He added that he had “no option” other than to resign, given his “ministerial and professional obligations” in this area.
“It is not just a question of what happened in Downing Street, or your own conduct,” he wrote to the PM. “It is also, and perhaps more so, the official response to what took place.”
With Labour governments in the UK now being virtually impossible due to FPP, Scottish nationalism and a corporate media environment that is relentlessly hostile to them – politics is now reduced to which faction of the Tory party is in power.
It is a contest between the 'levelling up' nationalists wanting to make Britain great again, project power globally and not averse to governments doing stuff and spending money (Johnson faction) – and the swivel-eyed neoliberal loons of the 'Singapore on Thames' mob.(Sunak faction).
Hard to argue with that. Starmer does seem notably centrist however – which we could translate as electable. Not that his likely default to a neoliberal agenda would please many other than as least/worst option. But you're right to imply that tories must implode to get that scenario activated. Boris is a scrapper. Opinion polls trending down for him would be a signal to watch for.
People seem to forget, ignore or stick their fingers in their ears and go lalala that England is predominantly a centre right country and has been since '79. All hard left labour leaders since have led the party to record breaking defeats.
It's like these "turn labour left" people have no idea of the real state of play in politics. It might not be what's needed, or desired by the more politically engaged, but winning the trust of the middle and dragging them left without scaring the voters away is the only way right wing conservatism can be kept from running amok unchecked. Add in a virtual monopoly of right leaning media it makes party messaging even more vital than ever. One has to be in it to win it.
“Edwina Currie boasts ‘I don’t care’ Boris Johnson broke law because Tories will win anyway”
I commented the other day on the nuclear weapon's strategy of mutually assured destruction and how the policy can no longer be relied on in the context of current events (if it ever could have been previously).
The MAD (appropriate acronymn!!) strategy assumed a that major actors would be rational and would care for their own lives, and that of their population, and hence would not resort to the use of such weapons.
The problem is that Putin, in a nefariously rational way, is threatening use of weapons if other nations go too far in terms of trying to stop him getting his way. Thus, nuclear weapons have suddenly become a major problem when a major power uses nuclear weapons to bully other nations into acquiescing to his demands and actions no matter how horrific they are.
The problem being that if that sort of behaviour is tolerated, then it will continue to be repeated until the bully nation gets all it wants.
This is a very thorny problem without any obvious solution. To me, it seems nuclear war is almost unavoidable at some point in the future with this sort of cavalier attitude.
Once we get through the current crisis, I think this is an issue world leaders will need to address.
One solution I proposed the other day, was that the super powers could agree to disband nuclear weapons in favour of large thermobaric ones if they still want to maintain a MAD policy. Those weapons have city-killing potential without the nuclear fall-out problems that could kill civilisation. So would do the job of MAD without the wider implications.
Perhaps that could be a first step to total de-escalation and move towards a much more sustainable future of peace and co-operation.
Yes. If Putin wants to invade eastern Poland or the Baltic states for instance – exactly what would stop him if he recycles the same successful tactic? This has been the gorilla in the living room from the very start of this Ukrainian butchery.
In doing this Putin stepped over a line – he has essentially said that he is the greater madman, that he believes it is worth ending civilisation to obtain his goals. Effectively he is now a greater monster than Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and Hitler combined. You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West – and there is the very real possibility he is so unhinged that he is willing to end the world to achieve it. If there is any truth to the idea that Alexandr Dugin has and is influencing his beliefs then we have to take this possibility seriously.
The lazy strategy in response is to hope for an internal coup to topple him. Small odds of success in my view.
The next strategy is to call his bluff as the West has been doing in a proportionate fashion, arming Ukraine and aiding with intelligence and imposing sanctions. The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world. Gradually ramping up the military pressure without triggering a nuclear response. This is the ‘ how lucky do you feel punk’ plan.
The third strategy that would be the most dramatic, but could be the most profound. A global Mexican standoff – an open declaration that at the moment the first Russian nuke of any size is detonated anywhere that there will be an immediate, unconstrained launch of every western nuclear weapon onto not only Russia but onto every nation aligned with them.
There is only one feasible, enduring solution to this threat – that the nations cede their power to commit war and their surrender their nuclear weapons in toto to a global body. The only way to ensure this happens now is through fear of the consequences of failing to do so.
At the outset such a global body would be deeply imperfect, it would still be riven by contention and conflict between the democratic and authoritarian powers. It would still lack a universal embracing of a moral principle to guide it, it would struggle to attain an authentic democratic accountability. But if the alternative was extinction we might just have to swallow the largest rodent in all of human history and do it.
You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West
Really?? I doubt it. But if so, Ukraine would have to be seen as aiding him by providing him with a justifiable target with which to start such a project.
Red, you would enjoy some of the podcasts on youtube by Peter Zeihan, a really insightful geopolitical analyst.
He thinks it is unlikely that Russia will use a tactical nuke in Ukraine (though not ruling it out entirely). His view is that if Russia were to do that, one of the consequences would be that every Nato nation would very quickly have nuclear missiles on their countries pointing directly at Russia.
So, hopefully, the use of a tactical nuke isn't so likely. And hopefully, Putin still fears MAD, and is just bluffing in that respect.
Apparently the Russians are saying that a fire on board caused ammunition to detonate meaning that the crew was evacuated. According the Ukranians, they have hit it with neptune missiles.
A warship is built in 1979. Suddenly, after 43 years of operation without catching fire, and a few hours after Ukraine claims to have hit it with missiles, Russia says it had an 'onboard fire' and 'ammunition explosion' without admitting any attack! Quite the coincidence there.
For amusing mockery of Russian lies and evil behaviour, I recommend Darth Putin and Sputnik_not
It doesn't matter what type of weapon levels cities, we're already witnessing the levelling of cities.
Our youth are already traumatised enough, by the adults in the room and their indifference and the pandemic, global warming, no path to a bright future, and now this Putin psycho. You reckon lobbing a nuke will help? Sounds desperate. Take a breath.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped. But violence begets trauma begets violence, and the hate lives on.
What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.
With the use of these bombs Japan would not have been forced to surrender until the country was wiped out.
What are you talking about? Regurgitating US myths – next you'll tell us that WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
Nuclear weapons shocked Japan into surrendering at the end of World War II—except they didn’t. Japan surrendered because the Soviet Union entered the war. Japanese leaders said the bomb forced them to surrender because it was less embarrassing to say they had been defeated by a miracle weapon. Americans wanted to believe it, and the myth of nuclear weapons was born.
Look at the facts. The United States bombed 68 cities in the summer of 1945. If you graph the number of people killed in all 68 of those attacks, you imagine that Hiroshima is off the charts, because that’s the way it’s usually presented. In fact, Hiroshima is second. Tokyo, a conventional attack, is first in the number killed. If you graph the number of square miles destroyed, Hiroshima is sixth. If you graph the percentage of the city destroyed, Hiroshima is 17th.
WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
The war in Europe was lost without Lend Lease and US industrial might.
Churchill had just raised his glass for the concluding toast when
Stalin requested the privilege of proposing one more toast—to the
President and people of the United States:
I want to tell you, from the Russian point of view, what
the President and the United States have done to win the war.
The most important things in this war are machines. The
United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to
10.000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most,
3.000 airplanes a month. England turns out 3,000 to 3,500,
which are principally heavy bombers. The United States,
therefore, is a country of machines.
Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease,
we would lose this war
This generous tribute prompted Roosevelt to ask for the last word.
He talked about the diversity of political complexions around the
banquet table which, he said, reminded him of the rainbow, to Ameri
cans “a symbol of good fortune and of hope.” The President con
tinued:
First of all, I want to say about the words of Stalin, which he repeated several times when we had "free conversations" among ourselves. He directly said that if the United States had not helped us, we would not have won this war: face to face with Nazi Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and lost the war.
Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”
That's right, the US contributed greatly but the insertion of US armed forces was not the sole reason behind victory in Europe, it required a large number people and governments, you know, the Allied powers, working together. Funny that.
“What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.”
I think that explanation was a nonsense argument, providing cognitive dissonance to justify the horror of what happened.
The US could have chosen a much slower but far less damaging method to achieve the same end. For instance, blockading all of Japans ports until they surrendered. There wasn't any need for any more US or Japanese to die.
First of all, you are assuming that the Japanese would have surrendered if subject to blockade – an outcome completely unpredictable in 1945 and completely at variance with the fanatical resistance of the Japanese up to that point. The use of atomic weapons acted as a circuit breaker that gave the Japanese a way out.
Second, you are dismissing the mass starvation that would have been caused by a blockade. The chances are many more, potentially running to the millions, could have starved to death (including large numbers of Allied POWs being held by the Japanese in Japan) than those who died in the nuclear attacks.
Third you are not considering the considerable political impetus to use nuclear weapons in 1945. Consider this. It is December 1945, and you are a US Congressman attending a rally. An angry mother demands to know why her son was killed two days ago in a Kamikaze attack on his blockading cruiser when the United States had possessed for many months a wonder weapon of enormous power, but hadn't chosen to use it. Another man chimes in, saying he had heard via the Red Cross his son, a POW since 1942, had starved to death in November. He also wants to know why the government hadn't used this weapon on an enemy everyone (after three years of propaganda) agreed were little more than sentient Monkeys and saved his boy. No elected politician would want to answer those questions and if you were that congressman you'd be really, really pissed at any president who didn't use said wonder weapon at the earliest opportunity.
It is all very well to sit back eighty years later and make rational arguments when in full possession of the facts but people in 1945 neither had all the facts or even if they had were disposed to give a brutal, dehumanised and merciless enemy any benefit of the doubt whatsoever.
The Germans terror bombed Warsaw and Rotterdam, and they got Hamburg and Dresden. The Japanese brutalised Allied POWs and fought with merciless savagery and they got Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is how the remorseless escalation of violence in war work.
You may be right. And we are looking back 80 years. Which is why I am not into "whataboutism" because most countries these days try to do everything possible to avoid the use of nukes.
But, I still see the deliberate targeting of civilian populations with nuclear weapons has to be, by definition, the ultimate expression of a war crime.
Sure, nukes were the shiny new thing back then, and people didn't know the full implications of them. But I still think there were much more peaceful options available.
Another option may have been to have a demonstration of nuke at sea so the Japanese could see what might be in store for them if they continued the fight.
The threat of something is often more effective than actually doing it. That is because the Japanese, including its leaders, would have no idea who the target of the weapon might be, if it were actually used.
I just don't accept that the use of nukes on civilian populations had to be the only option considered. What would we say today if Russia did that to say, Kiev?
I think you are ascribing far to much thinking and nuance to a political process that basically went like this: "We've got the bomb, they don't, lets nuke 'em – they deserve it – and end this damn war quickly. Oh and while we are it at the same time show the Commies in Moscow they should be afraid, very afraid".
The secondary debate about morality and how many people might have died either way was left for philosophers, theologians and historians at a later date.
As for the Russian maybe using nuclear weapons – these are now understood to be weapons of last resort, for use only in retaliation for an existential nuclear attack. Russia would gain nothing by using nuclear weapons except to create an exceptional risk of total annihilation. Putin is as crazy as a cut snake, so who knows how far he is prepared to go but the United States has made 100% crystal clear it would respond in kind to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine.
The blockade idea was actually working – not cruisers, but US submarines had basically obliterated maritime traffic of all sizes around the Home Islands. It was just a matter of time until surrender.
But also, I haven't seen any example of any part of US government that was in the know even considering not using the Bomb. Some had the vengeance thing going, others wanted to see its effects, some wanted it as a warning to the Soviets, but these all seem to be "add-on" motives. The Bomb was going to be dropped, lots of folks could see positive angles for their own policy area or bugbear, but not dropping it doesn't seem to have seriously occurred to anyone.
The Japanese surrender was not precipitated by the nukes, but by Russia's rejection of a conditional surrender.
Once Russia entered the war in the East, Japan had no options left short of unconditional surrender. But the bureaucracy was a little slow, as it was with the declaration of war prior to Pearl Harbour.
that was the worst war crime in the history of the world.
Winners don’t commit war crimes.
LeMay said, "If we'd lost the war, we'd all have been prosecuted as war criminals." And I think he's right. He, and I'd say I, were behaving as war criminals. LeMay recognized that what he was doing would be thought immoral if his side had lost. But what makes it immoral if you lose and not immoral if you win?
As an aside, while the Manhatten project cost two billion the cost to develop the B-29 bomber was three billion so the two atomic bombs and their delivery system represented a massive investment.
In context, it was the equivalent at the time of forty fleet aircraft carriers complete with their air groups.
Yes this is effectively what Putin is doing, threatening nuclear extinction and using as cover to achieve the unconditional surrender of first Ukraine – then Europe.
Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack. Plus Xi has not yet made his public move.
Putin has appointed a new military leader who openly prefers the standard Soviet siege strategy of slowly surrounding, starving and shelling opponents into surrender regardless of casualties.
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565, when after very heavy losses to his army he stood on the smoking ruins of the desperately defended small fort of St. Elmo and looked across the bay at the solid walls of Fort St Angelo:
“If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565 … “If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
I'm not sure the 1565 Great Seige of Malta by the Ottoman Turks will necessarily be sitting uppermost in the minds of Russian strategists at the moment.
Nor will the 1315 Battle of Morgarten, in which the independence-seeking Swiss ambushed Duke Leopold I's well-trained army of Hapsburg mercenaries on the shores of Lake Ageri with Louis X of France exclaiming: “They appear outraged by the ban imposed by the Bishop of Bern's emissaries yet are reluctant to act for fear of Schwyz violence”.
I'd aver the Ruskies will also pay little, if any, heed to the position of the Luftwaffe in 1945, the 1240 Sacking of Sandomierz during the first Mongol invasion of Poland, in which the Abbot of Koprzywnica and all his monks were brutally murdered with boiling molasses, the position the French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps found itself in towards the end of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War, the predicament of the German High Seas fleet after the Battle of Jutland in 1916, of which an American journalist observed – “the German fleet has assaulted its jailer, but it is still in jail”, the position of the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty in northern China on the eve of the 1211 Battle of Yehuling wherethe Mongol Empire forces of Genghis Khan ultimately prevailed, albeit at the cost of weakening certain allied tribes …
Nor, for that matter, do I suspect Russian strategists will currently be pondering lessons to be learned from the decidedly gruesome 1676 Sea Battle of the Faroes, in which the combined maritime forces of Denmark & Norway under King Frederick V were massacred in a surprise axe-wielding ship invasion by men serving under the rebellious Icelandic Sea Captain & former Pirate Ólafur Halldór Gunnarsson.
All genuine battles & seiges, RL, with valuable life-lessons for Sanc to imbibe & learn … except, perhaps, the last-mentioned axe-wielding homicidal Icelandic maniac … that was probably just wishful thinking …
… also not entirely sure there was ever a French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps on reconnaissance duties during the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War … but, by the same token, we can't completely rule it out either.
“Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack.”
The fact that the Russian army has performed so badly is even more scary.
The point that Peter Zeihan makes is that previously US and NATO strategists expected that the Russians would be very tough opponents in a conventional war. But now it has become very obvious to both NATO and Russia that Russia would be obliterated in any conventional conflict. Thus the only choice for Russia would be a humiliating defeat or resorting immediately to nukes.
Hence, NATO wants to do everything possible to avoid direct conflict with Russia. Which is why they want to bleed Russia dry in Ukraine rather than allow the possibility of Russia succeeding and facing off directly with Poland (a NATO country) as a result.
Military theorists and strategists like Sun Tzu have viewed attrition warfare as something to be avoided… On the other hand, a side which perceives itself to be at a marked disadvantage in maneuver warfare or unit tactics may deliberately seek out attrition warfare to neutralize its opponent's advantages.
If the sides are nearly evenly matched, the outcome of a war of attrition is likely to be a Pyrrhic victory.
I think NATO did originally see it as a war of attrition because they expected that Russia would win the conventional war against Ukraine very quickly, and then NATO would be supporting an insurgency.
However, due to the success of the Ukraine military, and the horrors of the war crimes by Russia, I think the mood has now changed so that NATO would be very happy to see Ukraine soundly beat Russia.
Hence, I think if you look at the various media reports, NATO is now supplying a lot more heavy weapons that have the potential to enable Ukraine defeat Russia outright.
With the attack on the Moskva, Ukraine has opened up a new flank. If the Russian fleet is as much of a paper tiger as other Russian forces, Russian forces besieging Mariupol may find themselves hung out to dry with no lines of supply or retreat.
Tsar Poot's went into Ukraine with a pair 7's to bluff everyone, that he is willing to use his Nukes/ WMD's if they deployed Troops into Ukraine.
His bluff hasn't work nor has hand with a pair 7's as the Ukrainian resolve & it's Security Forces have given him a frightful belting that no one really predicted unless you really understand the doctrine of Territorial Defence.
Poot's is running out of options fast & now it appears the Russian Flag Ship of the Black Fleet has met it's Trafalgar.
If anyone here understand the mindset of a Slavic Male, they don't like losing to inferior people/ nations
To those who have following Tsar Poot's in particular his dark arts from the KGB & you throw in Maskirovka which is almost as old as Russia itself.
Then Tsar Poots Best Bets Form Guide, tells you he is capable of doing it & at 3/1 he will, be it he is winning or when he is at last chance saloon.
9th May is going to be D Day (Victory Day over Nazi Germany) in Russia for Tsar Poot's.
Hmmm, the Moskva is supposed to have a layered air defense of S-300 and 9K33 missiles and 130mm rapid fire (up to 40 RPM) guns and 30mm CIWS as well as a shipload of passive (flares, jammers, chaff) counter-measures yet appears to have been hit by a single, high subsonic anti-ship missile using conventional radar guidance that was probably fired off the back of a Toyota with no counter-measures to support it.
let me guess – The ships systems are either not working and/or not competently crewed and/or completely ineffective and/or the ship was recklessly exposed to a missile strike.
The record since WW2 of surface ships successfully engaging anti-ship missiles is not encouraging for naval types who like to stay dry, yet Navies these days insist on building 10,000 ton "destroyers" as big as pre WW2 treaty cruisers, and probably as vulnerable to missile attack as those earlier ships were to air attack. From the INS Eilat to PNS Khaibar to HMS Sheffield to USS Stark to the Moskva the case against surface ships is building all the time…
As Karl Dönitz said, admirals like big ships, because "you can't parade a band on the deck of a submarine".
Well it makes sense, if the Ukrainian Military Forces have used those Turkish UAV's again.
In their last attack on Russian Ships, when the Ukrainians drop a couple bombs literally through the hatch (well the Cargo hull was open at the time) onto the vehicle deck that was full bang (ammo) & the valuable Russian Landing Ship went boom.
The Ukrainian Military Forces also managed to seriously damaged the other 2 Landing Ships alongside as well which did the Harry Holt out of the port with various fires on the respective Landing Ships.
Here's a detailed report, of what may've happened to that Russia Battlewagon today.
The Ukranian's have literally taken the Territorial Defence Doctrine to a whole new level.
Some thoughts on the apparent sinking of the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva: if confirmed, it's likely to go down in history as one of the most audaciously successful attacks in modern naval history. /1 pic.twitter.com/hWlLdbNMxP
The ship is a strategic missile platform,it more then likely does have at least 16 warheads on board in case of Nato intervention,and a switch to strategic defense.
Yes, word is the thing is at the bottom of the sea now. Apparently the single largest loss of life event the Russians have experienced in the war thus far.
This is not going to be ideal for Russian's supply of cruise missiles that they were starting to run short of I think.
I was wondering if there were any nukes on board. Hopefully not.
One of the things to remember is that the Russian cruiser Moskva carries 16 × P-500 Bazalt ASMs in external launch tubes. Each weighs about 10,600lbs, and is made up of mostly explosive stuff. A hit to any of these units may cause some serious damage, or an "ammunition explosion" pic.twitter.com/PxL1Mus5wG
It's now the biggest Combat Surface Unit to be sunk Post WW2, the previous country was Argentina in the Falklands War. It's Brooklyn Class Crusier was sunk a Pommy SSN ( Nuclear Attack Sub) with a Torpedo dating back to WW2.
When Kruschev said "We will bury you", I don't think he talking about some future military action; I think he meant that the USSR would come to lead the world economically. To bring Europe into some sort of Russian empire that's what Russia would have to do. By themselves I don't think that that would be possible; but with China's help, who knows.
Last month, she recruited the former Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer to review the country’s border force, weeks after he had urged the UK to adopt a hard line on boat migrants.
Last year, Australian government figures showed that the country spent £461m processing 239 refugees and asylum seekers held offshore.
On the other hand maybe not surprising. Surely, there's money to be made by the Tory party donors. The company running the Australian off-shore camp is doing very well from what I've read.
Looks like she lost the confidence of her colleagues, and read the writing on the "wall". I can see why Manurewa voters do not care for a neoliberal obsessed with identity issues rather than the concerns of her working class electorate. Agree with Sanctuary.
Grant Robertson is a big fan of British socialist folk-punk singer Billy Bragg. The finance minister even wrote an opinion column last year that started and ended with lyrics from Bragg’s iconic song “Between the Wars”, with its key line “Sweet moderation; Heart of this nation”. Robertson titled his column, ...
A Free Speech Union conversation Free Speech Union spokesperson Dane Giraud speaks to former Māori Party co-leader Marama Fox about the Māori presence at the recent parliamentary protests. Marama (who would be briefly trespassed by Speaker of the House Trevor Mallard) spent a number of days on the ground and ...
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Dawn Felagund over at The Silmarillion Writers Guild has been putting together an interesting look at the ways in which Tolkien fandom changed as a result of the Peter Jackson movies. In addition to the Tolkien Fanfiction Survey, she has been getting direct feedback from fans who were around ...
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This post is a response to a request from Peter Baillie. I don’t know him from Adam and I suspect he was attempting sarcasm but I offered to give him a response. I would welcome any comments or discussion he could add – but that is up to him. ...
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Dr Amanda Kvalsvig, Prof Michael Baker, Dr Jennifer Summers, Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard, Dr Andrew Dickson, Dr Julie Bennett, Carmen Timu-Parata, Prof Nick Wilson Kvalsvig A, Baker M, Summers J, Telfar Barnard L, Dickson A, Bennett J, Timu-Parata C, Wilson N. The urgent need for a Covid-19 Action Plan for ...
In this week’s “A View from Afar” podcast Selwyn Manning and I speculate on how the Ruso-Ukrainian War will shape future regional security dynamics. We start with NATO and work our way East to the Northern Pacific. It is not comprehensive but we outline some potential ramifications with regard to ...
At base, the political biffo back and forth on the merits of Budget 2022 comes down to only one thing. Who is the better manager of the economy and better steward of social wellbeing – National or Labour? In its own quiet way, the Treasury has buried a fascinating answer ...
by Don Franks Poverty in New Zealand today has new ugly features. Adequate housing is beyond the reach of thousands. More and more people full time workers must beg food parcels from charities. Having no attainable prospects, young people lash out and steal. A response to poverty from The Daily ...
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The government announced its budget today, with Finance Minister Grant Robertson giving the usual long speech about how much money they're spending. The big stuff was climate change and health, with the former being pre-announced, and most of the latter being writing off DHB's entirely fictional "debt" to the the ...
Finance Minister Grant Robertson has delivered a Budget that will many asking “Is that all there is?” There is a myriad of initiatives and there is increased spending, but strangely it doesn’t really add up to much at all for those hoping for a more traditional Labour-style Budget. The headline ...
Last year, Cook Islands Deputy Prime Minister Robert Tapaitau stood down as a minister after being charged with conspiracy to defraud after an investigation into corruption in Infrastructure Cook Islands and the National Environment Service. He hasn't been tried yet, but this week he has been reinstated: The seven-month ...
A ballot for three member's bills was held today, and the following bills were drawn: Repeal of Good Friday and Easter Sunday as Restricted Trading Days (Shop Trading and Sale of Alcohol) Amendment Bill (Chris Baillie) Electoral (Strengthening Democracy) Amendment Bill (Golriz Ghahraman) Increased Penalties for ...
No Jesus Here.She rises, unrested, and stepsOnto the narrow balconyTo find the day. To greetThe Sunday God she sings to.But this morning His face is clouded.Grey and wet as a corpseWashed by tears.Behind her, in the tangled bedding,the children bicker and whine.Worrying the cheap furnitureLike hungry puppies.They clutch at her ...
After two years of Corona-induced online meetings in 2020 and 2021, this year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) will take place as a hybrid conference in both Vienna and online from May 23 to 27. To take hybrid and necessary hygiene restrictions into account, there (unfortunately) will be no ...
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Julia Steinberger is an ecological economist at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland. She first posted this piece at Medium.com, and it was reposted on Yale Climate Connections with her permission. Today I went to give a climate talk at my old high school in Geneva – and was given a ...
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I have suggested previously that sometimes Tolkien’s writer-instincts get the better of him. Sometimes he departs from his own cherished metaphysics, in favour of the demands of story – and I dare say, that is a good thing. Laws and Customs of the Eldar might be an interesting insight ...
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Could it be a case of not appreciating what you’ve got until it’s gone? The National Party lost Simon Bridges last week, which has reinforced the notion that the party still has some serious deficits of talent and diversity. The major factor in Bridges’ decision to leave was his failed ...
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Elizabeth Elliot Noe, Lincoln University, New Zealand; Andrew D. Barnes, University of Waikato; Bruce Clarkson, University of Waikato, and John Innes, Manaaki Whenua – Landcare ResearchUrbanisation, and the destruction of habitat it entails, is a major threat to native bird populations. But as our new research shows, restored ...
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The good people at the Reading Tolkien podcast have put out a new piece, which spends some time comparing the underlying moral positions of George R.R. Martin and J.R.R. Tolkien: (The relevant discussion starts about twenty-seven minutes in. It’s a long podcast). In the interests of fairness, ...
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CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY Mr Speaker, It has taken four-and-a-half years to even start to turn the legacy of inaction and neglect from the last time they were in Government together. And we have a long journey in front of us! ...
Today Greens Te Mātāwaka Chair and Health Spokesperson, Dr Elizabeth Kerekere, said “The Greens have long campaigned for an independent Māori Health Authority and pathways for Takatāpui and Rainbow healthcare. “We welcome the substantial funding going into the new health system, Pae Ora, particularly for the Māori Health Authority, Iwi-Partnership ...
Budget 2022 shows progress on conservation commitments in the Green Party’s cooperation agreement Green Party achievements in the last Government continue to drive investment in nature protection Urgent action needed on nature-based solutions to climate change Future budget decisions must reflect the role nature plays in helping reduce emissions ...
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Honourable Dame Fran Wilde will lead the board overseeing the design and construction of Auckland’s largest, most transformational project of a generation – Auckland Light Rail, which will connect hundreds of thousands of people across the city, Minister of Transport Michael Wood announced today. “Auckland Light Rail is New Zealand’s ...
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As part of New Zealand’s ongoing response to the war in Ukraine, New Zealand is providing further support and personnel to assist Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “We have been clear throughout Russia’s assault on Ukraine, that such a ...
Budget 2022 is providing investment to crackdown on tobacco smuggling into New Zealand. “Customs has seen a significant increase in the smuggling of tobacco products into New Zealand over recent years,” Minister of Customs Meka Whaitiri says. This trend is also showing that tobacco smuggling operations are now often very ...
Prime Minister to lead trade mission to the United States this week to support export growth and the return of tourists post COVID-19. Business delegation to promote trade and tourism opportunities in New Zealand’s third largest export and visitor market Deliver Harvard University commencement address Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated Anthony Albanese and the Australian Labor Party on winning the Australian Federal election, and has acknowledged outgoing Prime Minister Scott Morrison. "I spoke to Anthony Albanese early this morning as he was preparing to address his supporters. It was a warm conversation and I’m ...
Tiwhatiwha te pō, tiwhatiwha te ao. Tiwhatiwha te pō, tiwhatiwha te ao. Matariki Tapuapua, He roimata ua, he roimata tangata. He roimata e wairurutu nei, e wairurutu nei. Te Māreikura mārohirohi o Ihoa o ngā Mano, takoto Te ringa mākohakoha o Rongo, takoto. Te mātauranga o Tūāhuriri o Ngai Tahu ...
Three core networks within the tourism sector are receiving new investment to gear up for the return of international tourists and business travellers, as the country fully reconnects to the world. “Our wider tourism sector is on the way to recovery. As visitor numbers scale up, our established tourism networks ...
The Minister of Customs has welcomed legislation being passed which will prevent millions of dollars in potential tax evasion on water-pipe tobacco products. The Customs and Excise (Tobacco Products) Amendment Act 2022 changes the way excise and excise-equivalent duty is calculated on these tobacco products. Water-pipe tobacco is also known ...
The Government is contributing $100,000 to a Mayoral Relief Fund to help the Levin community following this morning’s tornado, Minister for Emergency Management Kiri Allan says. “My thoughts are with everyone who has been impacted by severe weather events in Levin and across the country. “I know the tornado has ...
The Quintet of Attorneys General have issued the following statement of support for the Prosecutor General of Ukraine and investigations and prosecutions for crimes committed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: “The Attorneys General of the United Kingdom, the United States of America, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand join in ...
Morena tatou katoa. Kua tae mai i runga i te kaupapa o te rā. Thank you all for being here today. Yesterday my colleague, the Minister of Finance Grant Robertson, delivered the Wellbeing Budget 2022 – for a secure future for New Zealand. I’m the Minister of Health, and this was ...
Urgent Budget night legislation to stop major supermarkets blocking competitors from accessing land for new stores has been introduced today, Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Dr David Clark said. The Commerce (Grocery Sector Covenants) Amendment Bill amends the Commerce Act 1986, banning restrictive covenants on land, and exclusive covenants ...
It is a pleasure to speak to this Budget. The 5th we have had the privilege of delivering, and in no less extraordinary circumstances. Mr Speaker, the business and cycle of Government is, in some ways, no different to life itself. Navigating difficult times, while also making necessary progress. Dealing ...
Budget 2022 provides funding to implement the new resource management system, building on progress made since the reform was announced just over a year ago. The inadequate funding for the implementation of the Resource Management Act in 1992 almost guaranteed its failure. There was a lack of national direction about ...
The Government is substantially increasing the amount of funding for public media to ensure New Zealanders can continue to access quality local content and trusted news. “Our decision to create a new independent and future-focused public media entity is about achieving this objective, and we will support it with a ...
$662.5 million to maintain existing defence capabilities NZDF lower-paid staff will receive a salary increase to help meet cost-of living pressures. Budget 2022 sees significant resources made available for the Defence Force to maintain existing defence capabilities as it looks to the future delivery of these new investments. “Since ...
More than $185 million to help build a resilient cultural sector as it continues to adapt to the challenges coming out of COVID-19. Support cultural sector agencies to continue to offer their important services to New Zealanders. Strengthen support for Māori arts, culture and heritage. The Government is investing in a ...
It is my great pleasure to present New Zealand’s fourth Wellbeing Budget. In each of this Government’s three previous Wellbeing Budgets we have not only considered the performance of our economy and finances, but also the wellbeing of our people, the health of our environment and the strength of our communities. In Budget ...
It is my great pleasure to present New Zealand’s fourth Wellbeing Budget. In each of this Government’s three previous Wellbeing Budgets we have not only considered the performance of our economy and finances, but also the wellbeing of our people, the health of our environment and the strength of our communities. In Budget ...
Four new permanent Coroners to be appointed Seven Coronial Registrar roles and four Clinical Advisor roles are planned to ease workload pressures Budget 2022 delivers a package of investment to improve the coronial system and reduce delays for grieving families and whānau. “Operating funding of $28.5 million over four ...
Establishment of Ministry for Disabled People Progressing the rollout of the Enabling Good Lives approach to Disability Support Services to provide self-determination for disabled people Extra funding for disability support services “Budget 2022 demonstrates the Government’s commitment to deliver change for the disability community with the establishment of a ...
Fairer Equity Funding system to replace school deciles The largest step yet towards Pay Parity in early learning Local support for schools to improve teaching and learning A unified funding system to underpin the Reform of Vocational Education Boost for schools and early learning centres to help with cost ...
$118.4 million for advisory services to support farmers, foresters, growers and whenua Māori owners to accelerate sustainable land use changes and lift productivity $40 million to help transformation in the forestry, wood processing, food and beverage and fisheries sectors $31.6 million to help maintain and lift animal welfare practices across Aotearoa New Zealand A total food and ...
House price caps for First Home Grants increased in many parts of the country House price caps for First Home Loans removed entirely Kāinga Whenua Loan cap will also be increased from $200,000 to $500,000 The Affordable Housing Fund to initially provide support for not-for-profit rental providers Significant additional ...
Child Support rules to be reformed lifting an estimated 6,000 to 14,000 children out of poverty Support for immediate and essential dental care lifted from $300 to $1,000 per year Increased income levels for hardship assistance to extend eligibility Budget 2022 takes further action to reduce child poverty and ...
More support for RNA research through to pilot manufacturing RNA technology platform to be created to facilitate engagement between research and industry partners Researchers and businesses working in the rapidly developing field of RNA technology will benefit from a new research and development platform, funded in Budget 2022. “RNA ...
A new Business Growth Fund to support small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to grow Fully funding the Regional Strategic Partnership Fund to unleash regional economic development opportunities Tourism Innovation Programme to promote sustainable recovery Eight Industry Transformation Plans progressed to work with industries, workers and iwi to transition ...
Budget 2022 further strengthens the economic foundations and wellbeing outcomes for Pacific peoples in Aotearoa, as the recovery from COVID-19 continues. “The priorities we set for Budget 2022 will support the continued delivery of our commitments for Pacific peoples through the Pacific Wellbeing Strategy, a 2020 manifesto commitment for Pacific ...
Boost for Māori economic and employment initiatives. More funding for Māori health and wellbeing initiatives Further support towards growing language, culture and identity initiatives to deliver on our commitment to Te Reo Māori in Education Funding for natural environment and climate change initiatives to help farmers, growers and whenua ...
Ted Johnston, Coleader of New Conservative states “There are important changes needed to the Electoral laws, but we must beware Labour and National passing self-serving laws to further perpetuate their duopoly.” Our elections are just passing of the ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards. Political Roundup: Grant Robertson’s “sweet moderation” Grant Robertson is a big fan of British socialist folk-punk singer Billy Bragg. The finance minister even wrote an opinion column last year that started and ended with lyrics from Bragg’s iconic song “Between the Wars”, with its key line ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron J. Snoswell, Post-doctoral Research Fellow, Computational Law & AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology Shutterstock The first serious accident involving a self-driving car in Australia occurred in March this year. A pedestrian suffered life-threatening injuries when hit by a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND The nightly television news coverage of the 2022 federal election was among the most juvenile and uninformative in 50 years. Given that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Holden, Clinical Associate Professor, University of Sydney Shutterstock It’s a common scenario: you decide to go out for dinner and fancy something different. So, you look to online reviews to help you make your dining choice. If you ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Hornsey, Professor, University of Queensland Business School, The University of Queensland Former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s shock loss to an independent running on a climate action platform wasn’t a fluke event. “Teal” independents have ousted five of Frydenberg’s colleagues, all harvesting votes ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Holloway, Senior Research DECRA Fellow, Institute for Learning Sciences and Teacher Education, Australian Catholic University During the 2022 federal election campaign, schools barely rated a mention. While the Labor government’s cabinet will not be finalised until next week, we expect ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elaine Nash, PhD Candidate, University of South Australia Shutterstock There are many reasons to employ people living with intellectual disability. Most obvious is that it’s the right thing to do – it helps promote social justice, diversity, corporate social responsibility, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debra Dudek, Associate professor, School of Arts and Humanities, Edith Cowan University Madman Australian writer and director Renée Webster’s new film How to Please a Woman turns much of what we think we know about sexual desire – especially for ...
Ardern's first event was a sit down with major American tourism media, as part of the drive to show the US market NZ is "open for business", and she will later meet meet with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Kelsey, Professor of Law, University of Auckland The uncertainty over whether Jacinda Ardern might land a White House meeting and photo opportunity with US President Joe Biden was perhaps fitting, given the lack of clarity about one of their main topics ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The QUAD summit in Tokyo has praised Australia raising its ambition on climate change, after Anthony Albanese told fellow leaders his government would do more to assist Pacific countries address it. Albanese stressed Australia’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team. In this podcast Michelle and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Clark, Deputy Engagement Editor, The Conversation Politics can be slow-moving, until all of a sudden it isn’t. As political scientist Simon Jackman says in today’s episode of Below the Line, “politics is very non-linear. You get these steady, secular ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By D. Bondy Valdovinos Kaye, Lecturer, Queensland University of Technology On Sunday, popular American singer songwriter Halsey shared a video on TikTok with tinny music in the background, the on-screen text reading: Basically I have a song that I love that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Crowley, Adjunct Associate Professor, Public and Environmental Policy, University of Tasmania During Saturday’s election, 31.5% of the voters deserted the major parties, with a swag of female teal independents tipping Liberal MPs out of their heartland urban seats. By contrast, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rita Matulionyte, Senior Lecturer in Law, Macquarie University Shutterstock Mastercard’s “smile to pay” system, announced last week, is supposed to save time for customers at checkouts. It is being trialled in Brazil, with future pilots planned for the Middle East ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock Stand by for something “reckless and dangerous”. That’s what former prime minister Scott Morrison said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would be if he asked the Fair Work Commission ...
Just in case the affected voters and constituencies haven’t bothered to check how much funding they are being given in Budget 2022 (or how much they have lost in some cases), ministers have been letting them know in post-Budget press statements. At least, they have been letting them know when ...
The Chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki, has called the way a New Zealand mother of two died in custody awaiting deportation from Australia was a disgrace and further evidence that the system is not just broken but responsible ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Moro, Associate Professor of Science & Medicine, Bond University Shutterstock You showered this morning, are wearing fresh clothes and having an otherwise normal day, when suddenly you notice that stench. Why do our armpits smell, and why more ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucinda McKnight, Senior Lecturer in Pedagogy and Curriculum, Deakin University Pixabay The war in Ukraine is being described as the first social media war, even as “the TikTok war”. Memes, tweets, videos and blog posts communicate both vital information and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Stewart, John Bray Professor of Law, University of Adelaide Industrial relations issues were front and centre when federal Labor last won office from opposition in 2007. The backlash against John Howard’s “Work Choices” reforms cost both his government and his own ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Soutphommasane, Acting Director, Sydney Policy Lab & Professor of Practice (Sociology and Political Theory), University of Sydney The message from Saturday’s election result was clear: Australians want a political reset. And not just about issues such as government integrity and climate ...
The Education and Workforce Committee is calling for submissions on the Employment Relations (Extended Time for Personal Grievance for Sexual Harassment) Amendment Bill. This bill would extend the period of time available to raise a personal grievance ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kelly Menzel, Assistant Professor – First Nations Health, Bond University GettyImages Workplaces can be hostile, overwhelming and unwelcoming places for many First Nations Peoples. My research has explored how this is the case in many organisations, including universities. White organisations ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute CDC/Unsplash Anthony Albanese campaigned on better pandemic management. Giving the vaccination program a shot in the arm will be his first test. Not long ago, every shipment of vaccines was ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Kingham, Professor, University of Canterbury Shutterstock/Tanya NZ The Dutch have long been recognised as leaders in cycling. Denmark is not far behind, with more bikes than cars in its capital Copenhagen. This is the result of many years of ...
Remaining in the orange traffic light setting is not a constraint or handbrake to accelerating business recovery, rebuilding, and planning for growth, says Auckland Business Chamber CEO Michael Barnett. “Businesses can do everything under Orange, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute CDC/Unsplash Anthony Albanese campaigned on better pandemic management. Giving the vaccination program a shot in the arm will be his first test. Not long ago, every shipment of vaccines was ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jen Purdie, Senior Research Fellow, University of Otago Getty Images If your next car is not electric, then it must be much smaller than your last one. Scientists have warned that the world needs to halve emissions every decade to ...
Not many New Zealanders may have noticed what is happening in China or India – but their economies appear to be tracking in opposite directions. Those movements could have a powerful impact in turn on NZ’s economic fortunes. Point of Order is indebted to two remarkable pieces of journalism for ...
Northland District Commander Superintendent Tony Hill: Police agree with the findings of an IPCA report, which concluded a Police officer was justified in using force against a man during an arrest in Northland. On 27 May 2021, Police were witness ...
Napier man, Alister Robertson, says the lack of any proper funding in the Budget for the proposed Dementia Mate Wareware Action Plan is really disappointing and concerning. “This Budget announcement is very underwhelming. It’s hardly a wellbeing Budget ...
Tauranga City Council’s commissioners have resolved to write directly to Government Ministers to detail their concerns that a lack of alignment between agencies and legislation is impacting the planning and funding of urban development in New Zealand’s ...
The Office for Seniors has released a new guide that will help inform the best urban design practices to benefit older people. The Age friendly urban places guide is a technical resource targeted at local and central government urban planning practice ...
RNZ Pacific A commemoration has been held in French Polynesia to mark the 20th anniversary of the disappearance of a leading opposition politician in the Tuamotus. Boris Léontieff, who headed the Fetia Api party, was among four politicians travelling in a small plane on a campaign trip when it disappeared ...
Feedback from our consultation on the rules governing policyholder security in our insurance legislation will help to shape the final policy. An important purpose of New Zealand’s insurance legislation is to promote a financially sound insurance ...
E tū/NZNO/PSA media release After rallying around Aotearoa for a better pay offer, care and support workers and their unions are delivering their messages to Parliament in a petition signed by thousands in just 10 days. They will hand over the petition, ...
“Jacinda Ardern’s visit comes immediately on the heels of Joe Biden’s trip to Japan for a meeting of the ‘Quad’ - the US, Australia, India and Japan - that intends to dramatically increase militarisation of the Pacific region. Ardern’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Baron, Associate professor, Australian Catholic University ShutterstockI’m curious about what will happen if, hypothetically, someone moves with speed (that is) twice the speed of light? – Devanshi, age 13, Mumbai Hi Devanshi! Thanks for this ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND Political commentators often use the idea of a political spectrum from left to right as shorthand for understanding political ideologies, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patricia A. O’Brien, Faculty Member, Asian Studies Program, Georgetown University; Visiting Fellow, Department of Pacific Affairs, Australian National University; Adjunct Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC., Georgetown University The federal election has delivered a monumental win for Australia’s relations ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Hellewell, Research Fellow, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, and The Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational Science, Curtin University Shutterstock Loss or alteration of taste (dysgeusia) is a common symptom of COVID. It’s also a side effect of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Bell, Professor of Marine Biology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Despite New Zealanders’ close connection with the oceans, very few will have heard of “temperate mesophotic ecosystems” (TMEs). Even fewer will appreciate their importance for coastal fisheries, and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eleanor Cowan, Lecturer in Ancient History, University of Sydney Francesco Solimena, Death of Messalina (about 1704/1712)The GettyReaders are advised this story includes depictions of domestic violence and violence against women. Domestic violence was endemic in the Roman world. Rome ...
23 May US President Biden unveiled his long-awaited Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in Tokyo tonight, supported by a small group of allies, including New Zealand’s Prime Minister Arden by zoom. “The low-key event was overshadowed by the elephant ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne AAP/Lukas Coch With 73% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is calling 73 of the 151 House of Representatives seats for Labor, 54 for the Coalition, 15 Others ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The transition from one government to another involves a democratic miracle and a physical mess. In parliament house’s ministerial wing on Monday, shredding machines were working flat out, fragments of their massive output leaving ...
OP-ED by Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is the United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is the United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). ...
Australia has a new political leader at the helm after nine years governed by conservatives but what does the change of hands mean for New Zealand? ...
RNZ Pacific A female candidate in the Papua New Guinea elections believes it is more important than ever that the country has women MPs in Parliament. Dulciana Somare-Brash is the daughter of the late Sir Michael Somare and she unsuccessfully stood in the East Sepik regional seat in 2017, finishing ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Garnett, Professor of Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University Gilbert’s potoroo, a marsupial that may be extinct in 20 years.Shutterstock It feels a bit strange to publish a paper that we want proved wrong – we have identified the ...
PNG Post-Courier “Powes! Powes! Powes!” The city of Port Moresby was ringing with chants of support for its governor for the past 15 years — Powes Parkop. Hundreds of men, women and children from the settlements to the suburbs flocked at the weekend in support of the three-term politician who ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kim Beasy, Lecturer in Curriculum and Pedagogy, University of Tasmania You’d be forgiven for not having heard about the long-awaited new Australian Curriculum, which was released with little fanfare in the midst of the election campaign. But this update to the national ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nancy Baxter, Professor and Head of Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne In a poll conducted by the Guardian in August of 2021 about the number of deaths Australians would be willing to accept as restrictions eased, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland Shutterstock As the polls closed on Saturday night, most election commentary focused on the dispiriting campaign where both major parties avoided any substantial division on policy issues and instead focused on ...
The Environment Committee Komiti Taiao invites public submissions on Aotearoa New Zealand’s emissions budgets and the emissions reduction plan, Te Hau mārohi ki anamata Towards a productive, sustainable and inclusive economy—Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
The announcement in Budget 2022 to build 300 affordable homes for Pasefika families in Porirua will be transformational, says the Central Pacific Collective (CPC). The homes will be built over 10 years through “Our Whare Our Fale” – ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jarryd Bartle, Sessional Lecturer, RMIT University Shutterstock One of the surprising results from the federal election was a record vote for Legalise Cannabis Australia, a minor party previously known as the Help End Marijuana Prohibition (HEMP) party. The party ...
Stuff business writer John Anthony was still focused on businessman Simon Henry’s widely reported remarks about My Food Bag co-founder Nadia Lim, a day after the company posted its latest annual results. His report on Saturday began with news that – according to its chief executive – My Food Bag’s ...
The Bus and Coach Association welcomes the recent budget announcement by the Labour Government to invest $61 million over the next four years towards ensuring a sustainable, skilled workforce of bus drivers nationwide. “This is great news” says CEO Ben ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Strating, Director, La Trobe Asia and Associate Professor, La Trobe University, La Trobe University During the election campaign, Anthony Albanese singled out Indonesia as a key regional partner. The new prime minister made a point of declaring he intended his first ...
The best way for Labour to help National is to encourage their ministers to appear incompetent in public. The strategy seems to be working well:
His confidence that the general public will better at getting clarity on the new rules than he himself could be misplaced. However, sending the tacit signal to National that he believers the average voter is quicker on the uptake than he is seems an excellent example of bipartisanship. Will they grab this plum he has tossed at them and run with it?
Hipkins could have brain fog from Covid. Needs to refresh the traffic light rules before he presents. Just because the mask rules have changed in some situations there is nothing stopping a person from wearing a mask if they choose to.
To be fair, Hipkins is the Labour minister I like and respect the most.
He seems earnest and hard-working.
And he doesn't shy away from interviews even with the likes of HDPA and Hosking who tend try to eviscerate him. Yet he always responds in a cheery fashion, and tries to answer the questions in an open and honest way.
Having a cheerful disposition helps. Being open & honest puts him above the PM currently. Fronting up for hostile interviews is even more meritorious.
Problem: fronting the change to the pandemic management system at a press conference requires a grasp of the changes being made. He failed on that count.
A PM's rating of ministerial performance is based on the minister's ability to get the elementary facts right when media ask about them.
I agree, IMO Hipkins is the best performing Labour MP and as you say, always fronts up to interviews. I just think he is too busy with both Covid and Education so things slip through the cracks as he is too stretched. I think Jacinda would give him Poto Williams' portfolios too if she could, as she is clearly not coping, but he's too busy.
Bomber's too optimistic.
If they adopt it, no way will they get 7%. If they scrape in with 5% it will be a considerable surprise to me. I'm picking 4%, perhaps 3.5%. He's likely to be right about James deciding enough's enough though.
And hey, discrimination against males is cool in the GP will be the verdict that turns voters off. Why is this not obvious to the Green Caucus & Exceutive already?? They can blather until they’re blue in the face that the rule change doesn’t thus discriminate. Technically correct is not a win – perception defeats reality!
Come election this term, James Shaw will be the only Green MP to have achieved anything. The rest have just dragged.
I have a lot of confidence he will land his portfolio well.
If he walks he will go straight to something useful in Wellington like DPMC or KPMG.
Jan Logie did achieve having some birth injuries being covered by ACC. Logie is currently chipping away at the ACC sensitive claims process. It is brutal, repetitive and slow.
Davidson has not done well with emergency housing. Now that the country has opened up I expect rents will rise and there will be less capacity in motels for emergency housing. The shortage and cost of building materials is also a concern. People will stay in a rental longer due to this.
Agreed Ad. Shaw has been the Green's major asset since Metiria left.
The Greens are polling 10%-doing fine.
Bomber is stirring, as is Trotter, who has always hated the Greens (and seems to be thick with Bomber).
https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2022/04/eighty-one-thousand-votes.html
It'll be interesting to see how the Green party membership votes regards list ranking and co leadership.
It will demonstrate how the majority of members feel about the tinkering
Also, we'll see how the SGM pans out, and which recommendations are approved
I’ve been a TOP voter for the last 2 elections – kind of a protest vote. But practically I think the Greens have the best chance of leading Aotearoa to a more just system of redistribution of wealth.
Their identity bollocks is bloody annoying divisive and alienating tho. Despite that, I am inclined to hold my nose and vote Green for a better chance of fairer taxation, benefits, and investment in the future.
Labour’s incrementalism doesn’t cut it.
Me too
What would a Russian victory in Ukraine look like?
Russia's ally in Syria gives us a some idea of what Ukraine under Russian occupation would be like.
Don't support fascism. (It really shouldn't have to be said).
Syria is not an "occupied" country. As far as I know it has its own government.
Disappearances of citizens with no trial are a hall mark of fascist states.
The policy of abducting of political activists and journalists and elected representatives common in Assad’s Syria, are now being carried in areas of occupied Ukraine by Russian forces.
You are the fascists!
A fascist state is one that is ruled by fascists. As far as I know Russia does not rule any part of Ukraine.
Mikesh, "as far as you know" is not very far..
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
Russia seized control of most of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, except for the northern areas of the Arabat Spit and the Syvash, which were still ruled by Ukraine right up until February this year when Russia forcibly occupied and imposed their rule on these last bits of Crimea as well.
Some other parts of Ukraine in the Donbas region, are also effectively ruled from Russia. Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is ruled by Russia-backed separatists, led by far right Russian Nationalists and neo-nazis, with state backing from Russia.
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
For your information, Crimea is part of Russia. Crimea has been been part of Russia for 300 years, and it was returned to Russia in 2014 with the consent of the Crimean people, the majority of whom are Russian anyway.
I think the transfer of Crimea in 1954 was effected by the Soviet Union, not by Russia. Russia and the Soviet Union were of course separate entities, and the latter no longer exists
It is your knowledge, I think, which does not "extend very far".
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
Russia has Neo-Nazis, as has every country probably, but they have no influence on government. It is actually the Ukraine that is led by Neo-Nazis. Zelenskyy himself campaigned on a "peace" policy, and I think that that is a policy he would have preferred to have followed, but the Nazi faction in the Ukraine, I think, wouldn't let him, so instead he was forced to continue the bombing of the Eastern regions. Not only that but he (was forced?) to endorse a policy aimed at conquering Crimea – a policy which Putin could scarcely be expected to countenance – and I think that ultimately this was the policy that led to the invasion.
The men of the Donbas "republic",incidentally, are not Nazis, just men unwilling to live under Ukraine's Nazi rule. This war actually started in 2014 when the democratically elected president, Viktor Yanokovich, was illegally deposed by the Ukraine's Nazi element. It was at that point that they started to seek autonomy.
Quite obviously the flattening of cities is not a big issue for you.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Unless you think Ukraine is flattening its own cities to discredit Russia.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Bombing of Warsaw
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
The illegal ousting of Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 was engineered by fascists, so clearly they have sufficient influence to be able to pull strings.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
True. Simply imposing a label never justifies anything.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Abhorent, I agree. But it "takes two to tango". The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion; which clearly they did.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Irrelevant.
The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion;
I should have added that this war might well have ended a lot sooner had the USA and GB not been supplying the Ukrainians eith weapons. And it may not even have started if the Ukranians had not been able to anticipate such assistance. So the burden of guilt would have to fall on the USA and GB also.
In case you hadn't noticed, the Ukrainians are fighting a proxy war on behalf of Uncle Sam.
Principled rightists are rare beasts but one just resigned as Conservative justice minister in the UK due to govt delinquency:
With Labour governments in the UK now being virtually impossible due to FPP, Scottish nationalism and a corporate media environment that is relentlessly hostile to them – politics is now reduced to which faction of the Tory party is in power.
It is a contest between the 'levelling up' nationalists wanting to make Britain great again, project power globally and not averse to governments doing stuff and spending money (Johnson faction) – and the swivel-eyed neoliberal loons of the 'Singapore on Thames' mob.(Sunak faction).
Depressing and boring all round.
Depressing and boring all round.
Hard to argue with that. Starmer does seem notably centrist however – which we could translate as electable. Not that his likely default to a neoliberal agenda would please many other than as least/worst option. But you're right to imply that tories must implode to get that scenario activated. Boris is a scrapper. Opinion polls trending down for him would be a signal to watch for.
People seem to forget, ignore or stick their fingers in their ears and go lalala that England is predominantly a centre right country and has been since '79. All hard left labour leaders since have led the party to record breaking defeats.
It's like these "turn labour left" people have no idea of the real state of play in politics. It might not be what's needed, or desired by the more politically engaged, but winning the trust of the middle and dragging them left without scaring the voters away is the only way right wing conservatism can be kept from running amok unchecked. Add in a virtual monopoly of right leaning media it makes party messaging even more vital than ever. One has to be in it to win it.
“Edwina Currie boasts ‘I don’t care’ Boris Johnson broke law because Tories will win anyway”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/edwina-currie-boasts-i-dont-26700483
Agreed, I think it is now 44! years since a Labour leader not named Blair has been voted in as PM
People switch off and disengage. Voter turnout tumbles. Mission accomplished.
I commented the other day on the nuclear weapon's strategy of mutually assured destruction and how the policy can no longer be relied on in the context of current events (if it ever could have been previously).
Refreshingly, here is someone who knows what they are talking about saying similar things.
The MAD (appropriate acronymn!!) strategy assumed a that major actors would be rational and would care for their own lives, and that of their population, and hence would not resort to the use of such weapons.
The problem is that Putin, in a nefariously rational way, is threatening use of weapons if other nations go too far in terms of trying to stop him getting his way. Thus, nuclear weapons have suddenly become a major problem when a major power uses nuclear weapons to bully other nations into acquiescing to his demands and actions no matter how horrific they are.
The problem being that if that sort of behaviour is tolerated, then it will continue to be repeated until the bully nation gets all it wants.
This is a very thorny problem without any obvious solution. To me, it seems nuclear war is almost unavoidable at some point in the future with this sort of cavalier attitude.
Once we get through the current crisis, I think this is an issue world leaders will need to address.
One solution I proposed the other day, was that the super powers could agree to disband nuclear weapons in favour of large thermobaric ones if they still want to maintain a MAD policy. Those weapons have city-killing potential without the nuclear fall-out problems that could kill civilisation. So would do the job of MAD without the wider implications.
Perhaps that could be a first step to total de-escalation and move towards a much more sustainable future of peace and co-operation.
Yes. If Putin wants to invade eastern Poland or the Baltic states for instance – exactly what would stop him if he recycles the same successful tactic? This has been the gorilla in the living room from the very start of this Ukrainian butchery.
In doing this Putin stepped over a line – he has essentially said that he is the greater madman, that he believes it is worth ending civilisation to obtain his goals. Effectively he is now a greater monster than Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and Hitler combined. You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West – and there is the very real possibility he is so unhinged that he is willing to end the world to achieve it. If there is any truth to the idea that Alexandr Dugin has and is influencing his beliefs then we have to take this possibility seriously.
The lazy strategy in response is to hope for an internal coup to topple him. Small odds of success in my view.
The next strategy is to call his bluff as the West has been doing in a proportionate fashion, arming Ukraine and aiding with intelligence and imposing sanctions. The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world. Gradually ramping up the military pressure without triggering a nuclear response. This is the ‘ how lucky do you feel punk’ plan.
The third strategy that would be the most dramatic, but could be the most profound. A global Mexican standoff – an open declaration that at the moment the first Russian nuke of any size is detonated anywhere that there will be an immediate, unconstrained launch of every western nuclear weapon onto not only Russia but onto every nation aligned with them.
There is only one feasible, enduring solution to this threat – that the nations cede their power to commit war and their surrender their nuclear weapons in toto to a global body. The only way to ensure this happens now is through fear of the consequences of failing to do so.
At the outset such a global body would be deeply imperfect, it would still be riven by contention and conflict between the democratic and authoritarian powers. It would still lack a universal embracing of a moral principle to guide it, it would struggle to attain an authentic democratic accountability. But if the alternative was extinction we might just have to swallow the largest rodent in all of human history and do it.
You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West
Really?? I doubt it. But if so, Ukraine would have to be seen as aiding him by providing him with a justifiable target with which to start such a project.
"The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world."
The Ukranians claim they have just scored a damaging hit on the Russian missile cruiser, the Moskva. Still awaiting independent confirmation of that. But if true, would make the Russians feel a bit nervous about their other ships near Ukraine.
Red, you would enjoy some of the podcasts on youtube by Peter Zeihan, a really insightful geopolitical analyst.
He thinks it is unlikely that Russia will use a tactical nuke in Ukraine (though not ruling it out entirely). His view is that if Russia were to do that, one of the consequences would be that every Nato nation would very quickly have nuclear missiles on their countries pointing directly at Russia.
So, hopefully, the use of a tactical nuke isn't so likely. And hopefully, Putin still fears MAD, and is just bluffing in that respect.
Further to my post above, it looks like something drastic has happened on the Russian flag ship, the Moskva.
Apparently the Russians are saying that a fire on board caused ammunition to detonate meaning that the crew was evacuated. According the Ukranians, they have hit it with neptune missiles.
Be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic.
A warship is built in 1979. Suddenly, after 43 years of operation without catching fire, and a few hours after Ukraine claims to have hit it with missiles, Russia says it had an 'onboard fire' and 'ammunition explosion' without admitting any attack! Quite the coincidence there.
For amusing mockery of Russian lies and evil behaviour, I recommend Darth Putin and Sputnik_not
I smiled to myself reading your mention of taking out a cruiser on the black sea as it was already done.
Dear Moskva,
No really, go fuck yourself.
– Ukraine
Already a precedent for it
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Unconditional surrender
We tolerated it
Yes. In my opinion, that was the worst war crime in the history of the world.
However, I think that so horrified the world, that it led to the MAD doctrine, given that other countries had also developed nukes.
I the world needs to be horrified in a similar way again to move towards planet-saving change.
See above.
It doesn't matter what type of weapon levels cities, we're already witnessing the levelling of cities.
Our youth are already traumatised enough, by the adults in the room and their indifference and the pandemic, global warming, no path to a bright future, and now this Putin psycho. You reckon lobbing a nuke will help? Sounds desperate. Take a breath.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped. But violence begets trauma begets violence, and the hate lives on.
We can’t break a cycle of grudges with a nuke.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped.
Indeed. I am all ears.
What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.
With the use of these bombs Japan would not have been forced to surrender until the country was wiped out.
What are you talking about? Regurgitating US myths – next you'll tell us that WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/education/008/expertclips/010
Oh well so nuclear weapons are not so scary after all. Whatever were we thinking.
I'm guessing this means NATO can now go ahead and enter Ukraine and crush the Russians with impunity.
Please point out where I said or implied any of that. I was refuting an entirely different claim.
Quite a ridiculous stretch, I expect an apology and a retraction.
Why would they? Oh, of course, I forgot. This is a proxy war fought on behalf of Uncle Sam.
The war in Europe was lost without Lend Lease and US industrial might.
Churchill had just raised his glass for the concluding toast when
Stalin requested the privilege of proposing one more toast—to the
President and people of the United States:
This generous tribute prompted Roosevelt to ask for the last word.
He talked about the diversity of political complexions around the
banquet table which, he said, reminded him of the rainbow, to Ameri
cans “a symbol of good fortune and of hope.” The President con
tinued:
W. Averell Harriman – Special Envoy to Churchill and Stalin, 1941-1946
First of all, I want to say about the words of Stalin, which he repeated several times when we had "free conversations" among ourselves. He directly said that if the United States had not helped us, we would not have won this war: face to face with Nazi Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and lost the war.
Nikita Khrushchev – Post-war reflections
http://militera.lib.ru/memo/russian/khruschev1/28.html
Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”
https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-to-the-soviet-union-1941-1945/
That's right, the US contributed greatly but the insertion of US armed forces was not the sole reason behind victory in Europe, it required a large number people and governments, you know, the Allied powers, working together. Funny that.
“What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.”
I think that explanation was a nonsense argument, providing cognitive dissonance to justify the horror of what happened.
The US could have chosen a much slower but far less damaging method to achieve the same end. For instance, blockading all of Japans ports until they surrendered. There wasn't any need for any more US or Japanese to die.
First of all, you are assuming that the Japanese would have surrendered if subject to blockade – an outcome completely unpredictable in 1945 and completely at variance with the fanatical resistance of the Japanese up to that point. The use of atomic weapons acted as a circuit breaker that gave the Japanese a way out.
Second, you are dismissing the mass starvation that would have been caused by a blockade. The chances are many more, potentially running to the millions, could have starved to death (including large numbers of Allied POWs being held by the Japanese in Japan) than those who died in the nuclear attacks.
Third you are not considering the considerable political impetus to use nuclear weapons in 1945. Consider this. It is December 1945, and you are a US Congressman attending a rally. An angry mother demands to know why her son was killed two days ago in a Kamikaze attack on his blockading cruiser when the United States had possessed for many months a wonder weapon of enormous power, but hadn't chosen to use it. Another man chimes in, saying he had heard via the Red Cross his son, a POW since 1942, had starved to death in November. He also wants to know why the government hadn't used this weapon on an enemy everyone (after three years of propaganda) agreed were little more than sentient Monkeys and saved his boy. No elected politician would want to answer those questions and if you were that congressman you'd be really, really pissed at any president who didn't use said wonder weapon at the earliest opportunity.
It is all very well to sit back eighty years later and make rational arguments when in full possession of the facts but people in 1945 neither had all the facts or even if they had were disposed to give a brutal, dehumanised and merciless enemy any benefit of the doubt whatsoever.
The Germans terror bombed Warsaw and Rotterdam, and they got Hamburg and Dresden. The Japanese brutalised Allied POWs and fought with merciless savagery and they got Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is how the remorseless escalation of violence in war work.
You may be right. And we are looking back 80 years. Which is why I am not into "whataboutism" because most countries these days try to do everything possible to avoid the use of nukes.
But, I still see the deliberate targeting of civilian populations with nuclear weapons has to be, by definition, the ultimate expression of a war crime.
Sure, nukes were the shiny new thing back then, and people didn't know the full implications of them. But I still think there were much more peaceful options available.
Another option may have been to have a demonstration of nuke at sea so the Japanese could see what might be in store for them if they continued the fight.
The threat of something is often more effective than actually doing it. That is because the Japanese, including its leaders, would have no idea who the target of the weapon might be, if it were actually used.
I just don't accept that the use of nukes on civilian populations had to be the only option considered. What would we say today if Russia did that to say, Kiev?
I think you are ascribing far to much thinking and nuance to a political process that basically went like this: "We've got the bomb, they don't, lets nuke 'em – they deserve it – and end this damn war quickly. Oh and while we are it at the same time show the Commies in Moscow they should be afraid, very afraid".
The secondary debate about morality and how many people might have died either way was left for philosophers, theologians and historians at a later date.
As for the Russian maybe using nuclear weapons – these are now understood to be weapons of last resort, for use only in retaliation for an existential nuclear attack. Russia would gain nothing by using nuclear weapons except to create an exceptional risk of total annihilation. Putin is as crazy as a cut snake, so who knows how far he is prepared to go but the United States has made 100% crystal clear it would respond in kind to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine.
The blockade idea was actually working – not cruisers, but US submarines had basically obliterated maritime traffic of all sizes around the Home Islands. It was just a matter of time until surrender.
But also, I haven't seen any example of any part of US government that was in the know even considering not using the Bomb. Some had the vengeance thing going, others wanted to see its effects, some wanted it as a warning to the Soviets, but these all seem to be "add-on" motives. The Bomb was going to be dropped, lots of folks could see positive angles for their own policy area or bugbear, but not dropping it doesn't seem to have seriously occurred to anyone.
Well, you don't spend two billion in 1940s dollars for something you are not going to use.
The Japanese surrender was not precipitated by the nukes, but by Russia's rejection of a conditional surrender.
Once Russia entered the war in the East, Japan had no options left short of unconditional surrender. But the bureaucracy was a little slow, as it was with the declaration of war prior to Pearl Harbour.
Winners don’t commit war crimes.
As an aside, while the Manhatten project cost two billion the cost to develop the B-29 bomber was three billion so the two atomic bombs and their delivery system represented a massive investment.
In context, it was the equivalent at the time of forty fleet aircraft carriers complete with their air groups.
The B29 killed more people with incendiaries than the Silverplate mod did with nukes.
It's a little-known fact that the delivery platform cost more than the device, but it's a mistake to add the two together.
Yes this is effectively what Putin is doing, threatening nuclear extinction and using as cover to achieve the unconditional surrender of first Ukraine – then Europe.
Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack. Plus Xi has not yet made his public move.
Putin has appointed a new military leader who openly prefers the standard Soviet siege strategy of slowly surrounding, starving and shelling opponents into surrender regardless of casualties.
As per Mariupol. Big success.
Mariupol has held out for six weeks (so far).
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565, when after very heavy losses to his army he stood on the smoking ruins of the desperately defended small fort of St. Elmo and looked across the bay at the solid walls of Fort St Angelo:
“If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
Well yes that is also a reasonable argument.
The critical strategic advantage now lies with Ukraine:
As others have said Poots has run out of easy options – only hard ones are left.
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I'm not sure the 1565 Great Seige of Malta by the Ottoman Turks will necessarily be sitting uppermost in the minds of Russian strategists at the moment.
Nor will the 1315 Battle of Morgarten, in which the independence-seeking Swiss ambushed Duke Leopold I's well-trained army of Hapsburg mercenaries on the shores of Lake Ageri with Louis X of France exclaiming: “They appear outraged by the ban imposed by the Bishop of Bern's emissaries yet are reluctant to act for fear of Schwyz violence”.
I'd aver the Ruskies will also pay little, if any, heed to the position of the Luftwaffe in 1945, the 1240 Sacking of Sandomierz during the first Mongol invasion of Poland, in which the Abbot of Koprzywnica and all his monks were brutally murdered with boiling molasses, the position the French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps found itself in towards the end of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War, the predicament of the German High Seas fleet after the Battle of Jutland in 1916, of which an American journalist observed – “the German fleet has assaulted its jailer, but it is still in jail”, the position of the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty in northern China on the eve of the 1211 Battle of Yehuling where the Mongol Empire forces of Genghis Khan ultimately prevailed, albeit at the cost of weakening certain allied tribes …
Nor, for that matter, do I suspect Russian strategists will currently be pondering lessons to be learned from the decidedly gruesome 1676 Sea Battle of the Faroes, in which the combined maritime forces of Denmark & Norway under King Frederick V were massacred in a surprise axe-wielding ship invasion by men serving under the rebellious Icelandic Sea Captain & former Pirate Ólafur Halldór Gunnarsson.
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Very funny – but now you are just showing off.
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All genuine battles & seiges, RL, with valuable life-lessons for Sanc to imbibe & learn … except, perhaps, the last-mentioned axe-wielding homicidal Icelandic maniac … that was probably just wishful thinking …
… also not entirely sure there was ever a French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps on reconnaissance duties during the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War … but, by the same token, we can't completely rule it out either.
And I would not want you to. Sounds far too delicious.
Mar figures inflation
Lithuania 15.9%
Latvia 11.5%
Estonia 15.2%
Poland 11%
Germany 7.3% (wholesale 22.2%)
Euro depreciation (us$) 12 months 10%
Ruble depreciation (us$) 8%
“Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack.”
The fact that the Russian army has performed so badly is even more scary.
The point that Peter Zeihan makes is that previously US and NATO strategists expected that the Russians would be very tough opponents in a conventional war. But now it has become very obvious to both NATO and Russia that Russia would be obliterated in any conventional conflict. Thus the only choice for Russia would be a humiliating defeat or resorting immediately to nukes.
Hence, NATO wants to do everything possible to avoid direct conflict with Russia. Which is why they want to bleed Russia dry in Ukraine rather than allow the possibility of Russia succeeding and facing off directly with Poland (a NATO country) as a result.
So if NATO does what you suggest, everyone will look at how long it will take & who pays the cost of the attrition…
I think NATO did originally see it as a war of attrition because they expected that Russia would win the conventional war against Ukraine very quickly, and then NATO would be supporting an insurgency.
However, due to the success of the Ukraine military, and the horrors of the war crimes by Russia, I think the mood has now changed so that NATO would be very happy to see Ukraine soundly beat Russia.
Hence, I think if you look at the various media reports, NATO is now supplying a lot more heavy weapons that have the potential to enable Ukraine defeat Russia outright.
With the attack on the Moskva, Ukraine has opened up a new flank. If the Russian fleet is as much of a paper tiger as other Russian forces, Russian forces besieging Mariupol may find themselves hung out to dry with no lines of supply or retreat.
Xi has his hands full dealing with Omicron and decreased productivity. See what happens in the next month with Covid case numbers in Shanghai.
Tsar Poot's went into Ukraine with a pair 7's to bluff everyone, that he is willing to use his Nukes/ WMD's if they deployed Troops into Ukraine.
His bluff hasn't work nor has hand with a pair 7's as the Ukrainian resolve & it's Security Forces have given him a frightful belting that no one really predicted unless you really understand the doctrine of Territorial Defence.
Poot's is running out of options fast & now it appears the Russian Flag Ship of the Black Fleet has met it's Trafalgar.
If anyone here understand the mindset of a Slavic Male, they don't like losing to inferior people/ nations
To those who have following Tsar Poot's in particular his dark arts from the KGB & you throw in Maskirovka which is almost as old as Russia itself.
Then Tsar Poots Best Bets Form Guide, tells you he is capable of doing it & at 3/1 he will, be it he is winning or when he is at last chance saloon.
9th May is going to be D Day (Victory Day over Nazi Germany) in Russia for Tsar Poot's.
Hmmm, the Moskva is supposed to have a layered air defense of S-300 and 9K33 missiles and 130mm rapid fire (up to 40 RPM) guns and 30mm CIWS as well as a shipload of passive (flares, jammers, chaff) counter-measures yet appears to have been hit by a single, high subsonic anti-ship missile using conventional radar guidance that was probably fired off the back of a Toyota with no counter-measures to support it.
let me guess – The ships systems are either not working and/or not competently crewed and/or completely ineffective and/or the ship was recklessly exposed to a missile strike.
The record since WW2 of surface ships successfully engaging anti-ship missiles is not encouraging for naval types who like to stay dry, yet Navies these days insist on building 10,000 ton "destroyers" as big as pre WW2 treaty cruisers, and probably as vulnerable to missile attack as those earlier ships were to air attack. From the INS Eilat to PNS Khaibar to HMS Sheffield to USS Stark to the Moskva the case against surface ships is building all the time…
As Karl Dönitz said, admirals like big ships, because "you can't parade a band on the deck of a submarine".
Word has its the Ukrainian Military baited them with a couple of those Turkish UAV's & smashed them with 2 Neptune's.
Instead of looking Up, they should've been looking out.
Mao, once said in his wee book for a guerrilla warfare, make noise in the East & attack from the West.
That is a pretty detailed engagement report, your twitter is clearly better than my twitter.
Well it makes sense, if the Ukrainian Military Forces have used those Turkish UAV's again.
In their last attack on Russian Ships, when the Ukrainians drop a couple bombs literally through the hatch (well the Cargo hull was open at the time) onto the vehicle deck that was full bang (ammo) & the valuable Russian Landing Ship went boom.
Here's a detailed report, of what may've happened to that Russia Battlewagon today.
The Ukranian's have literally taken the Territorial Defence Doctrine to a whole new level.
The ship is a strategic missile platform,it more then likely does have at least 16 warheads on board in case of Nato intervention,and a switch to strategic defense.
Yes, word is the thing is at the bottom of the sea now. Apparently the single largest loss of life event the Russians have experienced in the war thus far.
This is not going to be ideal for Russian's supply of cruise missiles that they were starting to run short of I think.
I was wondering if there were any nukes on board. Hopefully not.
With a rather large bang.
And, technically, an incoming warhead is an "ammunition explosion" in its own right – just Ukrainian ammunition, not Russian…
It's now the biggest Combat Surface Unit to be sunk Post WW2, the previous country was Argentina in the Falklands War. It's Brooklyn Class Crusier was sunk a Pommy SSN ( Nuclear Attack Sub) with a Torpedo dating back to WW2.
When Kruschev said "We will bury you", I don't think he talking about some future military action; I think he meant that the USSR would come to lead the world economically. To bring Europe into some sort of Russian empire that's what Russia would have to do. By themselves I don't think that that would be possible; but with China's help, who knows.
What the actual fuck! England taking lessons in migrant handling from Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/13/priti-patel-finalises-plan-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Unbelievable (quoted from article):
On the other hand maybe not surprising. Surely, there's money to be made by the Tory party donors. The company running the Australian off-shore camp is doing very well from what I've read.
Louisa Wall's valedictory to Parliament today
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/departing-labour-mp-louisa-wall-gives-valedictory-speech-after-claims-she-was-unwanted/LVL373OGWHXXQGGRIUI2AHXCSE/
Looks like she lost the confidence of her colleagues, and read the writing on the "wall". I can see why Manurewa voters do not care for a neoliberal obsessed with identity issues rather than the concerns of her working class electorate. Agree with Sanctuary.