The best way for Labour to help National is to encourage their ministers to appear incompetent in public. The strategy seems to be working well:
The minister responsible for the Covid-19 rules, Chris Hipkins, admitted to a “mind blank” when asked about what the change to ”orange” meant for mask use.
In a jumbled press conference announcing New Zealand’s move from red to orange on the Covid-19 traffic lights system, Hipkins defended rules which allow unmasked party goers to “pash” on the dance floor and had to backtrack after giving incorrect information about mask requirements.
Hipkins initially said “the rules have changed”, and then incorrectly told reporters airlines and bus operators could set their own rules on face masks… Passengers on public transport are still required to wear a mask and the Covid-19 response minister had to correct himself mid-announcement.
Hipkins finished the press conference with a mea culpa and apology: “I did not refresh my memory sufficiently about mask requirements at orange, I apologise for that. That was my mistake.” He insisted the mask rules would be clear for the public, despite initially being confused about the rules.
His confidence that the general public will better at getting clarity on the new rules than he himself could be misplaced. However, sending the tacit signal to National that he believers the average voter is quicker on the uptake than he is seems an excellent example of bipartisanship. Will they grab this plum he has tossed at them and run with it?
Hipkins could have brain fog from Covid. Needs to refresh the traffic light rules before he presents. Just because the mask rules have changed in some situations there is nothing stopping a person from wearing a mask if they choose to.
To be fair, Hipkins is the Labour minister I like and respect the most.
He seems earnest and hard-working.
And he doesn't shy away from interviews even with the likes of HDPA and Hosking who tend try to eviscerate him. Yet he always responds in a cheery fashion, and tries to answer the questions in an open and honest way.
Having a cheerful disposition helps. Being open & honest puts him above the PM currently. Fronting up for hostile interviews is even more meritorious.
Problem: fronting the change to the pandemic management system at a press conference requires a grasp of the changes being made. He failed on that count.
A PM's rating of ministerial performance is based on the minister's ability to get the elementary facts right when media ask about them.
I agree, IMO Hipkins is the best performing Labour MP and as you say, always fronts up to interviews. I just think he is too busy with both Covid and Education so things slip through the cracks as he is too stretched. I think Jacinda would give him Poto Williams' portfolios too if she could, as she is clearly not coping, but he's too busy.
James will go, the new non binary co-leadership model will be adopted, 10 000 people will like it on Twitter and it will lead to the Greens limping home with 7% in 2023.
If they adopt it, no way will they get 7%. If they scrape in with 5% it will be a considerable surprise to me. I'm picking 4%, perhaps 3.5%. He's likely to be right about James deciding enough's enough though.
And hey, discrimination against males is cool in the GP will be the verdict that turns voters off. Why is this not obvious to the Green Caucus & Exceutive already?? They can blather until they’re blue in the face that the rule change doesn’t thus discriminate. Technically correct is not a win – perception defeats reality!
Jan Logie did achieve having some birth injuries being covered by ACC. Logie is currently chipping away at the ACC sensitive claims process. It is brutal, repetitive and slow.
Davidson has not done well with emergency housing. Now that the country has opened up I expect rents will rise and there will be less capacity in motels for emergency housing. The shortage and cost of building materials is also a concern. People will stay in a rental longer due to this.
I’ve been a TOP voter for the last 2 elections – kind of a protest vote. But practically I think the Greens have the best chance of leading Aotearoa to a more just system of redistribution of wealth.
Their identity bollocks is bloody annoying divisive and alienating tho. Despite that, I am inclined to hold my nose and vote Green for a better chance of fairer taxation, benefits, and investment in the future.
What would a Russian victory in Ukraine look like?
Russia's ally in Syria gives us a some idea of what Ukraine under Russian occupation would be like.
A year after “reconciliation”: Arrests and disappearances abound in southern Syria
……Among those arrested was Rateb al-Jabawi, the former head of Jasim local council during the opposition rule. In September 2018, al-Jabawi was taken from his home and arrested by a security service patrol in the city of Jasim. “[His arrest] is one of the most important violations of the settlement deal,” said the former military commander.”
Security and military patrols have also been conducting raids and searches on houses of civilians in the town of Rasm al-Halabi, a village in the countryside of al-Quneitra, and have specifically targeted former members of the Civil Defense (The White Helmets). They have recently arrested two brothers who formerly worked with the White Helmets, Bilal and Ala’a Shubat.
A week before the arrest of the Shubat brothers, three former members of the Civil Defense from the village of Saidah al-Joulan, near the Golan Heights, were kidnapped while traveling between the city of al-Sheikh Maskin and Nawa in the Daraa governorate. Local media outlets accused the Syrian government security forces of being behind the kidnappings….
Disappearances of citizens with no trial are a hall mark of fascist states.
The policy of abducting of political activists and journalists and elected representatives common in Assad’s Syria, are now being carried in areas of occupied Ukraine by Russian forces.
In A Ukrainian Region Occupied By Russian Forces, People Are Disappearing. Locals Fear It's About To Get Worse.
March 16, 2022 17:30 GMT
By Oleksandr Yankovshiv
Volodymyr Mykhavlov
Yevhenia Tokar
On the morning of March 12, just after 9 a.m., Serhiy Tsyhipa said goodbye to his wife and walked out the door of his home in the small southern Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka, along with his dog Ais, to meet colleagues in the next town.
Tsyhipa, a 60-year-old activist, blogger, and vocal opponent of Russia's invasion, was also supposed to drop off some medicine for his mother-in-law.
"He never arrived. He never came home. His phone turned on twice for a few minutes and that's it. I was only able to send voice messages, nothing more," his wife, Olena, told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service.
The same day Tsyhipa disappeared, Oleh Baturin, a reporter for a local news site called Noviy Den, also went missing. His relatives and colleagues are still looking for him…..
In southern Ukraine's Kherson region, people are going missing — most recently on March 16, when armed men seized the mayor and his deputy in the coastal town of Skadovsk and took them away to an undisclosed location….
…..As far as I know Russia does not rule any part of Ukraine.
Mikesh, "as far as you know" is not very far..
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
Russia seized control of most of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, except for the northern areas of the Arabat Spit and the Syvash, which were still ruled by Ukraine right up until February this year when Russia forcibly occupied and imposed their rule on these last bits of Crimea as well.
Some other parts of Ukraine in the Donbas region, are also effectively ruled from Russia. Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is ruled by Russia-backed separatists, led by far right Russian Nationalists and neo-nazis, with state backing from Russia.
….Some have pointed out the far right received only 2% of the vote in Ukraine’s 2019 parliamentary elections, far less than in most of Europe….
….What has received less coverage is the Putin regime’s own record of collaboration with far-right extremists….
…..No less important is the role of neo-Nazis and other right-wing figures in Russia’s onslaught against Ukraine.
….Putin’s weaponisation of neo-Nazis was always a risky strategy, but it was not irrational. Unlike mainstream nationalists, who tend to support the idea of free elections, neo-Nazis reject democratic institutions and the very idea of human equality. For a dictator dismantling democracy and constructing an authoritarian regime, they were ideal accomplices.
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
For your information, Crimea is part of Russia. Crimea has been been part of Russia for 300 years, and it was returned to Russia in 2014 with the consent of the Crimean people, the majority of whom are Russian anyway.
I think the transfer of Crimea in 1954 was effected by the Soviet Union, not by Russia. Russia and the Soviet Union were of course separate entities, and the latter no longer exists
It is your knowledge, I think, which does not "extend very far".
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
Russia has Neo-Nazis, as has every country probably, but they have no influence on government. It is actually the Ukraine that is led by Neo-Nazis. Zelenskyy himself campaigned on a "peace" policy, and I think that that is a policy he would have preferred to have followed, but the Nazi faction in the Ukraine, I think, wouldn't let him, so instead he was forced to continue the bombing of the Eastern regions. Not only that but he (was forced?) to endorse a policy aimed at conquering Crimea – a policy which Putin could scarcely be expected to countenance – and I think that ultimately this was the policy that led to the invasion.
The men of the Donbas "republic",incidentally, are not Nazis, just men unwilling to live under Ukraine's Nazi rule. This war actually started in 2014 when the democratically elected president, Viktor Yanokovich, was illegally deposed by the Ukraine's Nazi element. It was at that point that they started to seek autonomy.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Unless you think Ukraine is flattening its own cities to discredit Russia.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Bombing of Guernica
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
…..The attack gained controversy because it involved the bombing of civilians by a military air force. Seen as a war crime by some historians, and argued as a legitimate attack by others,[1] it was one of the first aerial bombings to capture global attention.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
The illegal ousting of Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 was engineered by fascists, so clearly they have sufficient influence to be able to pull strings.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
True. Simply imposing a label never justifies anything.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Abhorent, I agree. But it "takes two to tango". The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion; which clearly they did.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion;
I should have added that this war might well have ended a lot sooner had the USA and GB not been supplying the Ukrainians eith weapons. And it may not even have started if the Ukranians had not been able to anticipate such assistance. So the burden of guilt would have to fall on the USA and GB also.
In case you hadn't noticed, the Ukrainians are fighting a proxy war on behalf of Uncle Sam.
Principled rightists are rare beasts but one just resigned as Conservative justice minister in the UK due to govt delinquency:
In a letter to Mr Johnson, Lord David Wolfson criticised the "official response" to "repeated rule-breaking". He is the first person to quit the government since reports of lockdown parties emerged.
Barrister Lord Wolfson has been a justice minister since December 2020, with responsibility for human rights and the constitution.
In his resignation letter, Lord Wolfson said the “scale, context and nature” of Covid breaches in government was inconsistent with the rule of law.
He added that he had “no option” other than to resign, given his “ministerial and professional obligations” in this area.
“It is not just a question of what happened in Downing Street, or your own conduct,” he wrote to the PM. “It is also, and perhaps more so, the official response to what took place.”
With Labour governments in the UK now being virtually impossible due to FPP, Scottish nationalism and a corporate media environment that is relentlessly hostile to them – politics is now reduced to which faction of the Tory party is in power.
It is a contest between the 'levelling up' nationalists wanting to make Britain great again, project power globally and not averse to governments doing stuff and spending money (Johnson faction) – and the swivel-eyed neoliberal loons of the 'Singapore on Thames' mob.(Sunak faction).
Hard to argue with that. Starmer does seem notably centrist however – which we could translate as electable. Not that his likely default to a neoliberal agenda would please many other than as least/worst option. But you're right to imply that tories must implode to get that scenario activated. Boris is a scrapper. Opinion polls trending down for him would be a signal to watch for.
People seem to forget, ignore or stick their fingers in their ears and go lalala that England is predominantly a centre right country and has been since '79. All hard left labour leaders since have led the party to record breaking defeats.
It's like these "turn labour left" people have no idea of the real state of play in politics. It might not be what's needed, or desired by the more politically engaged, but winning the trust of the middle and dragging them left without scaring the voters away is the only way right wing conservatism can be kept from running amok unchecked. Add in a virtual monopoly of right leaning media it makes party messaging even more vital than ever. One has to be in it to win it.
“Edwina Currie boasts ‘I don’t care’ Boris Johnson broke law because Tories will win anyway”
I commented the other day on the nuclear weapon's strategy of mutually assured destruction and how the policy can no longer be relied on in the context of current events (if it ever could have been previously).
The MAD (appropriate acronymn!!) strategy assumed a that major actors would be rational and would care for their own lives, and that of their population, and hence would not resort to the use of such weapons.
The problem is that Putin, in a nefariously rational way, is threatening use of weapons if other nations go too far in terms of trying to stop him getting his way. Thus, nuclear weapons have suddenly become a major problem when a major power uses nuclear weapons to bully other nations into acquiescing to his demands and actions no matter how horrific they are.
The problem being that if that sort of behaviour is tolerated, then it will continue to be repeated until the bully nation gets all it wants.
This is a very thorny problem without any obvious solution. To me, it seems nuclear war is almost unavoidable at some point in the future with this sort of cavalier attitude.
Once we get through the current crisis, I think this is an issue world leaders will need to address.
One solution I proposed the other day, was that the super powers could agree to disband nuclear weapons in favour of large thermobaric ones if they still want to maintain a MAD policy. Those weapons have city-killing potential without the nuclear fall-out problems that could kill civilisation. So would do the job of MAD without the wider implications.
Perhaps that could be a first step to total de-escalation and move towards a much more sustainable future of peace and co-operation.
Yes. If Putin wants to invade eastern Poland or the Baltic states for instance – exactly what would stop him if he recycles the same successful tactic? This has been the gorilla in the living room from the very start of this Ukrainian butchery.
In doing this Putin stepped over a line – he has essentially said that he is the greater madman, that he believes it is worth ending civilisation to obtain his goals. Effectively he is now a greater monster than Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and Hitler combined. You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West – and there is the very real possibility he is so unhinged that he is willing to end the world to achieve it. If there is any truth to the idea that Alexandr Dugin has and is influencing his beliefs then we have to take this possibility seriously.
The lazy strategy in response is to hope for an internal coup to topple him. Small odds of success in my view.
The next strategy is to call his bluff as the West has been doing in a proportionate fashion, arming Ukraine and aiding with intelligence and imposing sanctions. The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world. Gradually ramping up the military pressure without triggering a nuclear response. This is the ‘ how lucky do you feel punk’ plan.
The third strategy that would be the most dramatic, but could be the most profound. A global Mexican standoff – an open declaration that at the moment the first Russian nuke of any size is detonated anywhere that there will be an immediate, unconstrained launch of every western nuclear weapon onto not only Russia but onto every nation aligned with them.
There is only one feasible, enduring solution to this threat – that the nations cede their power to commit war and their surrender their nuclear weapons in toto to a global body. The only way to ensure this happens now is through fear of the consequences of failing to do so.
At the outset such a global body would be deeply imperfect, it would still be riven by contention and conflict between the democratic and authoritarian powers. It would still lack a universal embracing of a moral principle to guide it, it would struggle to attain an authentic democratic accountability. But if the alternative was extinction we might just have to swallow the largest rodent in all of human history and do it.
You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West
Really?? I doubt it. But if so, Ukraine would have to be seen as aiding him by providing him with a justifiable target with which to start such a project.
Red, you would enjoy some of the podcasts on youtube by Peter Zeihan, a really insightful geopolitical analyst.
He thinks it is unlikely that Russia will use a tactical nuke in Ukraine (though not ruling it out entirely). His view is that if Russia were to do that, one of the consequences would be that every Nato nation would very quickly have nuclear missiles on their countries pointing directly at Russia.
So, hopefully, the use of a tactical nuke isn't so likely. And hopefully, Putin still fears MAD, and is just bluffing in that respect.
Apparently the Russians are saying that a fire on board caused ammunition to detonate meaning that the crew was evacuated. According the Ukranians, they have hit it with neptune missiles.
A warship is built in 1979. Suddenly, after 43 years of operation without catching fire, and a few hours after Ukraine claims to have hit it with missiles, Russia says it had an 'onboard fire' and 'ammunition explosion' without admitting any attack! Quite the coincidence there.
For amusing mockery of Russian lies and evil behaviour, I recommend Darth Putin and Sputnik_not
It doesn't matter what type of weapon levels cities, we're already witnessing the levelling of cities.
Our youth are already traumatised enough, by the adults in the room and their indifference and the pandemic, global warming, no path to a bright future, and now this Putin psycho. You reckon lobbing a nuke will help? Sounds desperate. Take a breath.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped. But violence begets trauma begets violence, and the hate lives on.
What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.
With the use of these bombs Japan would not have been forced to surrender until the country was wiped out.
What are you talking about? Regurgitating US myths – next you'll tell us that WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
Nuclear weapons shocked Japan into surrendering at the end of World War II—except they didn’t. Japan surrendered because the Soviet Union entered the war. Japanese leaders said the bomb forced them to surrender because it was less embarrassing to say they had been defeated by a miracle weapon. Americans wanted to believe it, and the myth of nuclear weapons was born.
Look at the facts. The United States bombed 68 cities in the summer of 1945. If you graph the number of people killed in all 68 of those attacks, you imagine that Hiroshima is off the charts, because that’s the way it’s usually presented. In fact, Hiroshima is second. Tokyo, a conventional attack, is first in the number killed. If you graph the number of square miles destroyed, Hiroshima is sixth. If you graph the percentage of the city destroyed, Hiroshima is 17th.
WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
The war in Europe was lost without Lend Lease and US industrial might.
Churchill had just raised his glass for the concluding toast when
Stalin requested the privilege of proposing one more toast—to the
President and people of the United States:
I want to tell you, from the Russian point of view, what
the President and the United States have done to win the war.
The most important things in this war are machines. The
United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to
10.000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most,
3.000 airplanes a month. England turns out 3,000 to 3,500,
which are principally heavy bombers. The United States,
therefore, is a country of machines.
Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease,
we would lose this war
This generous tribute prompted Roosevelt to ask for the last word.
He talked about the diversity of political complexions around the
banquet table which, he said, reminded him of the rainbow, to Ameri
cans “a symbol of good fortune and of hope.” The President con
tinued:
First of all, I want to say about the words of Stalin, which he repeated several times when we had "free conversations" among ourselves. He directly said that if the United States had not helped us, we would not have won this war: face to face with Nazi Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and lost the war.
Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”
That's right, the US contributed greatly but the insertion of US armed forces was not the sole reason behind victory in Europe, it required a large number people and governments, you know, the Allied powers, working together. Funny that.
“What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.”
I think that explanation was a nonsense argument, providing cognitive dissonance to justify the horror of what happened.
The US could have chosen a much slower but far less damaging method to achieve the same end. For instance, blockading all of Japans ports until they surrendered. There wasn't any need for any more US or Japanese to die.
First of all, you are assuming that the Japanese would have surrendered if subject to blockade – an outcome completely unpredictable in 1945 and completely at variance with the fanatical resistance of the Japanese up to that point. The use of atomic weapons acted as a circuit breaker that gave the Japanese a way out.
Second, you are dismissing the mass starvation that would have been caused by a blockade. The chances are many more, potentially running to the millions, could have starved to death (including large numbers of Allied POWs being held by the Japanese in Japan) than those who died in the nuclear attacks.
Third you are not considering the considerable political impetus to use nuclear weapons in 1945. Consider this. It is December 1945, and you are a US Congressman attending a rally. An angry mother demands to know why her son was killed two days ago in a Kamikaze attack on his blockading cruiser when the United States had possessed for many months a wonder weapon of enormous power, but hadn't chosen to use it. Another man chimes in, saying he had heard via the Red Cross his son, a POW since 1942, had starved to death in November. He also wants to know why the government hadn't used this weapon on an enemy everyone (after three years of propaganda) agreed were little more than sentient Monkeys and saved his boy. No elected politician would want to answer those questions and if you were that congressman you'd be really, really pissed at any president who didn't use said wonder weapon at the earliest opportunity.
It is all very well to sit back eighty years later and make rational arguments when in full possession of the facts but people in 1945 neither had all the facts or even if they had were disposed to give a brutal, dehumanised and merciless enemy any benefit of the doubt whatsoever.
The Germans terror bombed Warsaw and Rotterdam, and they got Hamburg and Dresden. The Japanese brutalised Allied POWs and fought with merciless savagery and they got Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is how the remorseless escalation of violence in war work.
You may be right. And we are looking back 80 years. Which is why I am not into "whataboutism" because most countries these days try to do everything possible to avoid the use of nukes.
But, I still see the deliberate targeting of civilian populations with nuclear weapons has to be, by definition, the ultimate expression of a war crime.
Sure, nukes were the shiny new thing back then, and people didn't know the full implications of them. But I still think there were much more peaceful options available.
Another option may have been to have a demonstration of nuke at sea so the Japanese could see what might be in store for them if they continued the fight.
The threat of something is often more effective than actually doing it. That is because the Japanese, including its leaders, would have no idea who the target of the weapon might be, if it were actually used.
I just don't accept that the use of nukes on civilian populations had to be the only option considered. What would we say today if Russia did that to say, Kiev?
I think you are ascribing far to much thinking and nuance to a political process that basically went like this: "We've got the bomb, they don't, lets nuke 'em – they deserve it – and end this damn war quickly. Oh and while we are it at the same time show the Commies in Moscow they should be afraid, very afraid".
The secondary debate about morality and how many people might have died either way was left for philosophers, theologians and historians at a later date.
As for the Russian maybe using nuclear weapons – these are now understood to be weapons of last resort, for use only in retaliation for an existential nuclear attack. Russia would gain nothing by using nuclear weapons except to create an exceptional risk of total annihilation. Putin is as crazy as a cut snake, so who knows how far he is prepared to go but the United States has made 100% crystal clear it would respond in kind to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine.
The blockade idea was actually working – not cruisers, but US submarines had basically obliterated maritime traffic of all sizes around the Home Islands. It was just a matter of time until surrender.
But also, I haven't seen any example of any part of US government that was in the know even considering not using the Bomb. Some had the vengeance thing going, others wanted to see its effects, some wanted it as a warning to the Soviets, but these all seem to be "add-on" motives. The Bomb was going to be dropped, lots of folks could see positive angles for their own policy area or bugbear, but not dropping it doesn't seem to have seriously occurred to anyone.
The Japanese surrender was not precipitated by the nukes, but by Russia's rejection of a conditional surrender.
Once Russia entered the war in the East, Japan had no options left short of unconditional surrender. But the bureaucracy was a little slow, as it was with the declaration of war prior to Pearl Harbour.
that was the worst war crime in the history of the world.
Winners don’t commit war crimes.
LeMay said, "If we'd lost the war, we'd all have been prosecuted as war criminals." And I think he's right. He, and I'd say I, were behaving as war criminals. LeMay recognized that what he was doing would be thought immoral if his side had lost. But what makes it immoral if you lose and not immoral if you win?
As an aside, while the Manhatten project cost two billion the cost to develop the B-29 bomber was three billion so the two atomic bombs and their delivery system represented a massive investment.
In context, it was the equivalent at the time of forty fleet aircraft carriers complete with their air groups.
Yes this is effectively what Putin is doing, threatening nuclear extinction and using as cover to achieve the unconditional surrender of first Ukraine – then Europe.
Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack. Plus Xi has not yet made his public move.
Putin has appointed a new military leader who openly prefers the standard Soviet siege strategy of slowly surrounding, starving and shelling opponents into surrender regardless of casualties.
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565, when after very heavy losses to his army he stood on the smoking ruins of the desperately defended small fort of St. Elmo and looked across the bay at the solid walls of Fort St Angelo:
“If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565 … “If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
I'm not sure the 1565 Great Seige of Malta by the Ottoman Turks will necessarily be sitting uppermost in the minds of Russian strategists at the moment.
Nor will the 1315 Battle of Morgarten, in which the independence-seeking Swiss ambushed Duke Leopold I's well-trained army of Hapsburg mercenaries on the shores of Lake Ageri with Louis X of France exclaiming: “They appear outraged by the ban imposed by the Bishop of Bern's emissaries yet are reluctant to act for fear of Schwyz violence”.
I'd aver the Ruskies will also pay little, if any, heed to the position of the Luftwaffe in 1945, the 1240 Sacking of Sandomierz during the first Mongol invasion of Poland, in which the Abbot of Koprzywnica and all his monks were brutally murdered with boiling molasses, the position the French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps found itself in towards the end of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War, the predicament of the German High Seas fleet after the Battle of Jutland in 1916, of which an American journalist observed – “the German fleet has assaulted its jailer, but it is still in jail”, the position of the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty in northern China on the eve of the 1211 Battle of Yehuling wherethe Mongol Empire forces of Genghis Khan ultimately prevailed, albeit at the cost of weakening certain allied tribes …
Nor, for that matter, do I suspect Russian strategists will currently be pondering lessons to be learned from the decidedly gruesome 1676 Sea Battle of the Faroes, in which the combined maritime forces of Denmark & Norway under King Frederick V were massacred in a surprise axe-wielding ship invasion by men serving under the rebellious Icelandic Sea Captain & former Pirate Ólafur Halldór Gunnarsson.
All genuine battles & seiges, RL, with valuable life-lessons for Sanc to imbibe & learn … except, perhaps, the last-mentioned axe-wielding homicidal Icelandic maniac … that was probably just wishful thinking …
… also not entirely sure there was ever a French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps on reconnaissance duties during the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War … but, by the same token, we can't completely rule it out either.
“Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack.”
The fact that the Russian army has performed so badly is even more scary.
The point that Peter Zeihan makes is that previously US and NATO strategists expected that the Russians would be very tough opponents in a conventional war. But now it has become very obvious to both NATO and Russia that Russia would be obliterated in any conventional conflict. Thus the only choice for Russia would be a humiliating defeat or resorting immediately to nukes.
Hence, NATO wants to do everything possible to avoid direct conflict with Russia. Which is why they want to bleed Russia dry in Ukraine rather than allow the possibility of Russia succeeding and facing off directly with Poland (a NATO country) as a result.
Military theorists and strategists like Sun Tzu have viewed attrition warfare as something to be avoided… On the other hand, a side which perceives itself to be at a marked disadvantage in maneuver warfare or unit tactics may deliberately seek out attrition warfare to neutralize its opponent's advantages.
If the sides are nearly evenly matched, the outcome of a war of attrition is likely to be a Pyrrhic victory.
I think NATO did originally see it as a war of attrition because they expected that Russia would win the conventional war against Ukraine very quickly, and then NATO would be supporting an insurgency.
However, due to the success of the Ukraine military, and the horrors of the war crimes by Russia, I think the mood has now changed so that NATO would be very happy to see Ukraine soundly beat Russia.
Hence, I think if you look at the various media reports, NATO is now supplying a lot more heavy weapons that have the potential to enable Ukraine defeat Russia outright.
With the attack on the Moskva, Ukraine has opened up a new flank. If the Russian fleet is as much of a paper tiger as other Russian forces, Russian forces besieging Mariupol may find themselves hung out to dry with no lines of supply or retreat.
Tsar Poot's went into Ukraine with a pair 7's to bluff everyone, that he is willing to use his Nukes/ WMD's if they deployed Troops into Ukraine.
His bluff hasn't work nor has hand with a pair 7's as the Ukrainian resolve & it's Security Forces have given him a frightful belting that no one really predicted unless you really understand the doctrine of Territorial Defence.
Poot's is running out of options fast & now it appears the Russian Flag Ship of the Black Fleet has met it's Trafalgar.
If anyone here understand the mindset of a Slavic Male, they don't like losing to inferior people/ nations
To those who have following Tsar Poot's in particular his dark arts from the KGB & you throw in Maskirovka which is almost as old as Russia itself.
Then Tsar Poots Best Bets Form Guide, tells you he is capable of doing it & at 3/1 he will, be it he is winning or when he is at last chance saloon.
9th May is going to be D Day (Victory Day over Nazi Germany) in Russia for Tsar Poot's.
Hmmm, the Moskva is supposed to have a layered air defense of S-300 and 9K33 missiles and 130mm rapid fire (up to 40 RPM) guns and 30mm CIWS as well as a shipload of passive (flares, jammers, chaff) counter-measures yet appears to have been hit by a single, high subsonic anti-ship missile using conventional radar guidance that was probably fired off the back of a Toyota with no counter-measures to support it.
let me guess – The ships systems are either not working and/or not competently crewed and/or completely ineffective and/or the ship was recklessly exposed to a missile strike.
The record since WW2 of surface ships successfully engaging anti-ship missiles is not encouraging for naval types who like to stay dry, yet Navies these days insist on building 10,000 ton "destroyers" as big as pre WW2 treaty cruisers, and probably as vulnerable to missile attack as those earlier ships were to air attack. From the INS Eilat to PNS Khaibar to HMS Sheffield to USS Stark to the Moskva the case against surface ships is building all the time…
As Karl Dönitz said, admirals like big ships, because "you can't parade a band on the deck of a submarine".
Well it makes sense, if the Ukrainian Military Forces have used those Turkish UAV's again.
In their last attack on Russian Ships, when the Ukrainians drop a couple bombs literally through the hatch (well the Cargo hull was open at the time) onto the vehicle deck that was full bang (ammo) & the valuable Russian Landing Ship went boom.
The Ukrainian Military Forces also managed to seriously damaged the other 2 Landing Ships alongside as well which did the Harry Holt out of the port with various fires on the respective Landing Ships.
The ship is a strategic missile platform,it more then likely does have at least 16 warheads on board in case of Nato intervention,and a switch to strategic defense.
Yes, word is the thing is at the bottom of the sea now. Apparently the single largest loss of life event the Russians have experienced in the war thus far.
This is not going to be ideal for Russian's supply of cruise missiles that they were starting to run short of I think.
I was wondering if there were any nukes on board. Hopefully not.
It's now the biggest Combat Surface Unit to be sunk Post WW2, the previous country was Argentina in the Falklands War. It's Brooklyn Class Crusier was sunk a Pommy SSN ( Nuclear Attack Sub) with a Torpedo dating back to WW2.
When Kruschev said "We will bury you", I don't think he talking about some future military action; I think he meant that the USSR would come to lead the world economically. To bring Europe into some sort of Russian empire that's what Russia would have to do. By themselves I don't think that that would be possible; but with China's help, who knows.
Last month, she recruited the former Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer to review the country’s border force, weeks after he had urged the UK to adopt a hard line on boat migrants.
Last year, Australian government figures showed that the country spent £461m processing 239 refugees and asylum seekers held offshore.
On the other hand maybe not surprising. Surely, there's money to be made by the Tory party donors. The company running the Australian off-shore camp is doing very well from what I've read.
Looks like she lost the confidence of her colleagues, and read the writing on the "wall". I can see why Manurewa voters do not care for a neoliberal obsessed with identity issues rather than the concerns of her working class electorate. Agree with Sanctuary.
New Zealand is again having to reconcile conflicting pressures from its military and its trade interests. Should we join Pillar Two of AUKUS and risk compromising our markets in China? For a century after New Zealand was founded in 1840, its external security arrangements and external economics arrangements were aligned. ...
The ‘50 Shades of Green’ farmers’ protest in 2019 was heavy on climate change denial, but five years on, scepticism and criticism about the idea that pine forests can save us is growing across the board. File photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate ...
This morning the sky was bright.The birds, in their usual joyous bliss. Nature doesn’t seem to feel the heat of what might angst humans.Their calls are clear and beautiful.Just some random thoughts:MāoriPaul Goldsmith has announced his government will roll back the judiciary’s rulings on Māori Customary Marine Title, which recognises ...
In 2003, the Court of Appeal delivered its decision in Ngati Apa v Attorney-General, ruling that Māori customary title over the foreshore and seabed had not been universally extinguished, and that the Māori Land Court could determine claims and confirm title if the facts supported it. This kicked off the ...
Earlier this week at Parliament, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was applauded for saying that the response to the final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care had to be “bigger than politics.” True, but the fine words, apologies and “we hear you” messages will soon ring ...
TL;DR: In news breaking this morning:The Ministry of Education is cutting $2 billion from its school building programme so the National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government has enough money to deliver tax cuts; The Government has quietly lowered its child poverty reduction targets to make them easier to achieve;Te Whatu Ora-Health NZ’s ...
Kia ora. These are some stories that caught our eye this week – as always, feel free to share yours in the comments. Our header image this week (via Eke Panuku) shows the planned upgrade for the Karanga Plaza Tidal Swimming Steps. The week in Greater Auckland On ...
1. What's not to love about the way the Harris campaign is turning things around?a. Nothingb. Love all of itc. God what a reliefd. Not that it will be by any means easye. All of the above 2. Documents released by the Ministry of Health show Associate Health Minister Casey ...
Trust in me in all you doHave the faith I have in youLove will see us through, if only you trust in meWhy don't you, you trust me?In a week that saw the release of the 3,000 page Abuse in Care report Christopher Luxon was being asked about Boot Camps. ...
TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking about the Royal Commission Inquiry into Abuse in Carereport released this week, and with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on a UN push to not recognise carbon offset markets and ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 26, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Transport: Simeon Brown announced$802.9 million in funding for 18 new trains on the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines, which ...
The northern expressway extension from Warkworth to Whangarei is likely to require radical changes to legislation if it is going to be built within the foreseeable future. The Government’s powers to purchase land, the planning process and current restrictions on road tolling are all going to need to be changed ...
Text within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedFirst they came for the doctors But I was confused by the numbers and costs So I didn't speak up Then they came for our police and nurses And I didn't think we could afford those costs anyway So I ...
Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on UnsplashWe’re back again after our mid-winter break. We’re still with the ‘new’ day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when we have our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream ...
Notes: This is a free article. Abuse in Care themes are mentioned. Video is at the bottom.BackgroundYesterday’s report into Abuse in Care revealed that at least 1 in 3 of all who went through state and faith based care were abused - often horrifically. At least, because not all survivors ...
Luxon speaks in Parliament yesterday about the Abuse in Care report. Photo: Hagen Hopkins/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:PM Christopher Luxon said yesterday in tabling the Abuse in Carereport in Parliament he wanted to ‘do the ...
About a decade ago I worked with a bloke called Steve. He was the grizzled veteran coder, a few years older than me, who knew where the bodies were buried - code wise. Despite his best efforts to be approachable and friendly he could be kind of gruff, through to ...
Some of the recent announcements from the government have reminded us of posts we’ve written in the past. Here’s one from early 2020. There were plenty of reactions to the government’s infrastructure announcement a few weeks ago which saw them fund a bunch of big roading projects. One of ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquirypublished its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone iconon the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive:Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloittereport for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’sOliver LewisScoop:Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announcedthe Board of Te Whatu Ora-Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Orderimage, ...
Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
Waiting In The Wings:For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSAannounced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
Open access notablesImproving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society:To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
A late change to charter school legislation will cheat educators out of fair pay and negotiating power proving charter schools are just a vehicle to make profit out of our education system. ...
In 2004 te iwi Māori rallied against the Crown’s attempt to confiscate our coastlines and moana with the Foreshore and Seabed Act. This led to the largest hīkoi of a generation and the birth of Te Pāti Māori. 20 years later, history is repeating itself. Today the government has announced ...
It has been five and a half years since the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care was established to investigate the abuse of children, young people, and vulnerable adults within state and faith-based institutions. Yesterday, the final report - Whanaketia through pain and trauma, from darkness to light ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to take action off the back of the International Court of Justice ruling on Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. ...
On Friday the International Court of Justice reaffirmed what Palestinian’s have been telling us for decades: that the occupation and colonisation of Palestinian lands by Israel is illegal and must end immediately. They also called for reparations for Palestinian’s who have lived under Israeli occupation since it began in 1967. ...
Labour calls on the Government to act after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian Territories is illegal. ...
The 53.7 percent rise in benefit sanctions over the last year is more proof of this Government’s disdain for our communities most in need of support. ...
Aotearoa could be a country where every child grows up feeling safe, loved and with a sense of belonging in their whānau and community. But for some of our children, this is far from reality. Instead, they are trapped in a maze of intergenerational harm that they can’t escape on ...
Te Pāti Māori are calling for David Seymour to resign as Associate Health Minister in response to his call for Pharmac to ignore the Treaty of Waitangi. “This announcement is just another example of the government’s anti-Tiriti, anti-Māori agenda.” Said Co-leader and spokesperson for health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. “Seymour thinks it ...
The soaring price of renting is driving the rise of inflation in this country - with latest figures from Stats NZ showing rents are up 4.8 per cent on average while annual inflation is at 3.3 per cent. ...
National’s Emissions Reduction Plan will take New Zealand further from the economy we need to ensure the next generation has a stable climate and secure livelihoods. ...
Following consultation with named parties and thorough consideration of privacy interests, the Green Party is in a position to release the Executive Summary of the final report from the independent investigation into Darleen Tana. ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should be asking serious questions of his Minister for Resources Shane Jones now it’s been revealed he misled the public about a dinner with mining companies that he didn’t declare and said wasn’t pre-arranged. ...
Te Pāti Māori have submitted to the Justice Select Committee against the Sentencing (Reinstating Three Strikes) Amendment Bill. The bill will further entrench racism in our justice system and fails to focus on rehabilitation. “Reinstating Three Strikes will empower a systematically racist system and exacerbate the overrepresentation of Māori in ...
The Transport and Infrastructure Committee is set to make a determination on the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill in the coming weeks. “This legislation will give landlords the power to kick our whānau out onto the street for no reason” said Housing spokesperson, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “Their solution to the housing ...
“National’s campaign was about tackling crime and the best they can do is a two-year long Ministerial Advisory Group,” Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...
“There are more examples of charter schools failing their students than there are success stories. The coalition Government is driving to dismantle our public school system and instead promote a privatised, competitive structure that puts profits before kids,” Jan Tinetti said. ...
“This government is choosing to deliberately mislead and withhold information, keeping our people in the dark about this government’s agenda and the future of our mokopuna,” said co-leader and spokesperson for Health, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. The call comes after the demand from the Chief Ombudsman that Associate Minister of Health, Casey ...
“Today’s climate announcement by Simon Watts makes clear the National Government is simply paying lip service to meeting its climate change targets,” Megan Woods said. ...
National is choosing to make life harder for workers by taking away the rights our communities have fought hard for. Here's how they’re taking workers backwards. ...
Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue. We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views. “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
Tēnā tātou katoa, Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts. “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet. “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks. “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care. At the heart of this report are the ...
For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024. “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane. “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says. “This will be our third visit to ...
Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today. “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum. While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation. “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan. “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is travelling to the Solomon Islands tomorrow for meetings with his counterparts from around the Pacific supporting collective management of the region’s fisheries. The 23rd Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Committee and the 5th Regional Fisheries Ministers’ Meeting in Honiara from 23 to 26 July ...
The Government today launched the Military Style Academy Pilot at Te Au rere a te Tonga Youth Justice residence in Palmerston North, an important part of the Government’s plan to crackdown on youth crime and getting youth offenders back on track, Minister for Children, Karen Chhour said today. “On the ...
The Government has welcomed news the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has begun work to replace nine priority bridges across the country to ensure our state highway network remains resilient, reliable, and efficient for road users, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“Increasing productivity and economic growth is a key priority for the ...
Acting Prime Minister David Seymour has been in contact throughout the evening with senior officials who have coordinated a whole of government response to the global IT outage and can provide an update. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet has designated the National Emergency Management Agency as the ...
New Zealand and Japan will continue to step up their shared engagement with the Pacific, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand and Japan have a strong, shared interest in a free, open and stable Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “We are pleased to be finding more ways ...
New developments in the heart of North Island forestry country will reinvigorate their communities and boost economic development, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones visited Kaingaroa and Kawerau in Bay of Plenty today to open a landmark community centre in the former and a new connecting road in ...
President Adeang, fellow Ministers, honourable Diet Member Horii, Ambassadors, distinguished guests. Minasama, konnichiwa, and good afternoon, everyone. Distinguished guests, it’s a pleasure to be here with you today to talk about New Zealand’s foreign policy reset, the reasons for it, the values that underpin it, and how it ...
Last summer when Matairangi burned, Ginny and Tom stood at the window of their lounge, watching kākā shoot skyward from the burning trees. From the distance, they looked to Ginny like pages torn from books and thrown into a bonfire. It was Tom, voice tight, who told her it was ...
Opinion: The Canadian short story writer Alice Munro – winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2013 – died in May at the age of 92. Her work was about “the damage people inflict on one another in the name of love”, Deborah Treisman wrote in the New Yorker. ...
This month marks two years since the most powerful telescope ever built sent its first pictures back to earth. From its lofty vantage point, beyond the moon in orbit around the sun, the James Webb Space Telescope was tuned to observe the first stars and galaxies being born soon after ...
Comment: After Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ preview several weeks ago, I had some optimism about the Government’s emissions reduction plan. Now I’ve read the discussion document, that hope has been dashed. How can the Government propose a plan that wants to take New Zealand taxpayers’ hard-earned money, and spend ...
Christopher Luxon: hurdles The little man from National jumps hurdles in his sleep. He’s quite good at it in his dreams and even though the reality doesn’t quite match up you have to give him credit for getting up every morning and crashing into the very first hurdle of the ...
Comment: It was a good two hours into the conversation when Tyrone Marks raised the most basic of questions when I first spoke to him in 2017. “They didn’t explain the things they did to me. They never told me why. And they still haven’t. There’s no explanation for it. ...
Madeleine Chapman rounds out Death Week on The Spinoff with a final recommendation. You can read all of our Death Week coverage here. Nothing forces you to reflect on your life and relationships quite like proximity to death. For those whose nearest and dearest have died, there are reasonably obvious ...
Whitney Greene takes us through her life in television, including the TV character she’d like to plan a funeral for and her cow lung catastrophe on The Traitors NZ. “If the phone rings, I have to answer it,” Whitney Greene from The Traitors NZ warns as we begin our My ...
Maddie Ballard reviews the debut essay collection of Pōneke writer Flora Feltham.In ‘The Raw Material’, the longest essay in Flora Feltham’s dazzling debut collection, the author heads out for a run after hours of weaving and sees the world turn to textile. “Pounding along the Parade, I saw the ...
Andy Christiansen, one half of the experimental rock-pop duo TRiPS, shares the tunes inspiring the band’s perfect weekend and new release. “Good speakers, good food, good music, no distractions”: that’s all you need to enjoy the psychedelic stylings of TRiPS, a new band formed by Fly My Pretties’ Barnaby Weir ...
Celebrating our quadrennial opportunity to become experts in a bunch of sports we never normally watch.The games of the XXXIII Olympiad are upon us. Paris will host this year’s showcase of sporting and athletic prowess, which means some late-night and early-morning viewing for us in Aotearoa.But what sports ...
The photograph is striking and beautiful, but also disturbing – a reminder that my love for John was often entangled in shame.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.In the spring of 1980, in Dunedin, shortly before his death, someone took a photograph ...
Get to know Babushka, our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Babu’s humans, Jo and Isabel, for their support. Dog name: Babushka (Babu for short) Age: 2Breed: Border Collie X poodleIf rescued, ...
Pacific Media Watch A Lebanese photojournalist who was severely wounded during an Israeli air strike in south Lebanon carried the Olympic torch in Paris this week in honour of her peers who have been wounded and killed in the field — especially in Gaza and Lebanon. Christina Assi of Agence ...
The first report in a five-part web series focused on the 15th Triennial Conference of Pacific Women taking place in the Marshall Islands this week.SPECIAL REPORT:By Netani Rika in Majuro Women continue to fight for justice 70 years after the first nuclear tests by the United States caused ...
Christopher Luxon has joined with Australia and Canada's leaders in voicing support for US President Joe Biden's ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The 2022 election brought the “teal wave” into parliament. The next election will test whether teals, who occupy what were Liberal seats, and other independents can maintain their momentum. Joining us on the Podcast ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Musgrave, Senior lecturer in Pharmacology, University of Adelaide Pixavri/Shutterstock A major Federal Court class action has been dismissed this week after Justice Michael Lee ruled there was not enough evidence to prove the weedkiller Roundup causes cancer. Plaintiff Kelvin ...
In The Week in Politics: politicians have to decide what to do about child abuse, Health NZ is booked in for major surgery and Darleen Tana returns. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Corbould, Associate Professor, Contemporary Histories Research Group, Deakin University Mainstream media are surprisingly muted at the prospect of the world’s most powerful nation being led for the first time by a woman – specifically a woman of colour, Vice President Kamala ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Bennett, PhD Student, Associate Research Fellow, Deakin University Last week, a drone delivery company called Wing (owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet) started operating in Melbourne. Some 250,000 residents in parts of the city’s eastern suburbs can now order food from ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Foo, Lecturer, Physiotherapy, Monash University pikselstock/Shutterstock In the next 40 years in Australia, it’s predicted the number of Australians aged 65 and over will more than double, while the number of people aged 85 and over will more than triple. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katrina Grant, Research Associate, Power Institute for Arts and Visual Culture, University of Sydney Jonas Åkerström’s 1790 work, Session of the Accademia dell’Arcadia on August 17 1788.Nationalmuseum/Cecilia Heisser Ever wondered whether you’d have a better chance at winning an Olympic gold ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Jones, Program Lead, Food Governance, George Institute for Global Health wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock On Thursday, Australian and New Zealand food ministers at state, federal and national levels met to thrash out what’s next for health star ratings on packaged foods. Now, after ...
The Abuse in Care report found many Pacific survivors lost their connections to their culture and language, resulting in trauma that has been carried from generation to generation. ...
In the regulatory review, ECC intends to suggest that ERO focus on curriculum delivery reviews rather than the Ministry, because it’s not efficient or effective to have two agencies with radically different approaches climbing over each other. ...
Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori invites the current government to work in partnership with them to develop a pathway forward, including the development of a parallel pathway and meaningful policy and strategy for Kura Kaupapa Māori ...
If you haven’t started watching yet, Tara Ward begs you to reconsider. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. In the world of New Zealand reality television, we have many gems in our crown. There’s the delicious second season of the Celebrity Treasure ...
A new poem by Fiona Kidman. The clothes of the dead I did not keep my mother’s furry red beret for long nor the stringy scarves that adorned the necks of my aunts, although I have kept tag ends of gold, the rings and trinkets they wore, the brooches no ...
The government’s announcement that it will re-open the foreshore and seabed controversy by changing the rules on recognising centuries-old Māori customary title for a third time goes against the rule of law and New Zealand values,” Mr Tipa says. ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Lioness by Emily Perkins (Bloomsbury, $25) Roarrrr! Perkins’ brilliant, award-winning, Marian-Keyes anointed, darkly funny, long ...
The 2004 Act vested ownership of the foreshore and seabed in the Crown, extinguishing any Māori claims to ownership and causing widespread outrage and protests among Māori communities. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Antje Deckert, Associate Professor (Criminology), Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Despite the connection between institutional harm and gang membership made clear in this week’s mammoth royal commission abuse-in care report, the government seems unlikely to soften its “get tough on ...
From Lewis Clareburt in the swimming to the start of the rowing – the first seven days of Paris 2024 promise to be big for New Zealand. There are few events that bring the country together quite like an Olympic Games. Nothing quite matches the excitement of getting up in ...
Groundbreaking local science just showed up in the most surprising of places: the season finale of The Kardashians. In the season five finale of The Kardashians last night, several members of the family gathered together in one of their signature empty, cream-coloured rooms to hear test results that had been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University The Middle East is on the brink of a possibly devastating regional war, with hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reaching an extremely dangerous level. Washington has engaged in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Elizabeth Eades, Rheumatologist, Monash University Lupus is an inflammatory autoimmune illness, where the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks itself. Lupus can affect virtually any part of the body, although it most commonly affects the skin, joints and kidneys. The symptoms ...
A law firm that specialises in working with survivors of abuse in State care is disappointed that the Government fails to recognise that its boot camps can be directly compared to previous boot camps from the 1990s and 2000s. ...
Dying is a natural part of life, like updating your Wof or seeing your hairdresser, but without the word-of-mouth recs that help guarantee a good service. What if we changed that? Dying Reviews received by The Spinoff have had the names of organisations redacted while Hospice NZ collects further data. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland Mike Lewinski/Flickr, CC BY On any clear night, if you gaze skywards long enough, chances are you’ll see a meteor streaking through the sky. Some nights, however, are better than others. At ...
Despite having no bars or other designated spaces for lesbians, Auckland boasts a small but mighty lesbian museum. So how did it get here? The past 18 months has brought increasing hostility towards the queer community across Aotearoa. Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull’s anti-trans rally in Tamaki Makaurau last March led to a ...
Poneke Antifascist Coalition has invited Wellingtonians to stand in solidarity with the Kanak people at 12pm today outside the French Embassy in Wellington. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University Drones are the signature technology of the Ukraine war. A few miniature aircraft designs were used in the war’s early days, but an incredible array of drones have now evolved. There are different types, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Slee, Associate Professor, Clinical Academic Neurologist, Flinders University Francisco Gonzelez/Unsplash Migraine is many things, but one thing it’s not is “just a headache”. “Migraine” comes from the Greek word “hemicrania”, referring to the common experience of migraine being predominantly ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lee White, Senior Lecturer and Horizon Fellow, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Sydney Australia was slow to introduce minimum building standards for energy efficiency. The Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) only came into force in 2003. Older homes ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney The past century of human-induced warming has increased rainfall variability over 75% of the Earth’s land area – particularly over Australia, Europe and eastern North America, new research shows. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Heynen, Program Coordinator, Sustainable Energy, The University of Queensland A temporary stadium in the Champ-de-Mars, ParisEkaterina Pokrovsky/Shutterstock As Paris prepares to host the Olympic and Paralympic Games, the sustainability of the event is coming under scrutiny. The organisers have promoted ...
A night of karaoke and community in a pub that feels like a memory. You’d barely even notice it, unless you knew to look. Tucked away behind a liquor store on busy Constable Street is the capital’s last great pub. Newtown Sports Bar is an emblem of the pub culture ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Wright, Professor in Marine Geology, University of Canterbury Louise Corcoran/Getty Images The decline in the number of doctoral candidates at New Zealand universities is a worrying sign for the country’s effort to build a knowledge-based economy. Aotearoa New Zealand’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurie Berg, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney defotoberg/Shutterstock Migrant worker exploitation is entrenched in workplaces across Australia. Tragically, a deep fear of immigration consequences means most unlawful employer conduct goes unreported. On Wednesday, however, the government officially launched a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania Paris is about to host its third summer Olympics. While we don’t yet know what the legacy of this year’s games will be, let’s take the opportunity to reflect on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University In the wake of the assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, there were calls from bothsides of US politics, as well as internationally, to reduce the brutal, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keith Rathbone, Senior Lecturer, Modern European History and Sports History, Macquarie University Two high-profile assaults on Australians in Paris have raised concerns about security ahead of the Olympic Games. On Saturday evening, a young woman was allegedly sexually assaulted by a ...
Dying is inevitable and, so it seems, is it costing a lot, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in today’s extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.The cost of dying ...
The government took Joyce Harris's first baby and sent her off to a girls' home. Half a century on - and out of oceans of hurt - it asked her to be a mother figure. ...
It’s the deadliest fictional town in the country, but which death has been the most bonkers? Alex Casey looks back at 10 seasons of The Brokenwood Mysteries to find out. Warning: The following ranking story contains famous New Zealand actors appearing to be dead (not alive). The Spinoff has been ...
Water cremation is the biggest thing to happen to the death industry in the last 100 years. Alex Casey meets the people trying to bring it to Aotearoa. Through a set of mirrored doors down the industrial end of Christchurch’s St Asaph Street, death is getting a new lease on ...
The Department of Conservation is in greater need of a commissioner than Health NZ, a veteran scientist says The post The risks and rewards of remaking DoC appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Opinion: New Health NZ commissioner Lester Levy is authorised to assume operational leadership – chief executive Margie Apa is effectively relegated to his operational deputy The post All-powerful Levy is feudal baron of a $28b fiefdom appeared first on Newsroom. ...
The best way for Labour to help National is to encourage their ministers to appear incompetent in public. The strategy seems to be working well:
His confidence that the general public will better at getting clarity on the new rules than he himself could be misplaced. However, sending the tacit signal to National that he believers the average voter is quicker on the uptake than he is seems an excellent example of bipartisanship. Will they grab this plum he has tossed at them and run with it?
Hipkins could have brain fog from Covid. Needs to refresh the traffic light rules before he presents. Just because the mask rules have changed in some situations there is nothing stopping a person from wearing a mask if they choose to.
To be fair, Hipkins is the Labour minister I like and respect the most.
He seems earnest and hard-working.
And he doesn't shy away from interviews even with the likes of HDPA and Hosking who tend try to eviscerate him. Yet he always responds in a cheery fashion, and tries to answer the questions in an open and honest way.
Having a cheerful disposition helps. Being open & honest puts him above the PM currently. Fronting up for hostile interviews is even more meritorious.
Problem: fronting the change to the pandemic management system at a press conference requires a grasp of the changes being made. He failed on that count.
A PM's rating of ministerial performance is based on the minister's ability to get the elementary facts right when media ask about them.
I agree, IMO Hipkins is the best performing Labour MP and as you say, always fronts up to interviews. I just think he is too busy with both Covid and Education so things slip through the cracks as he is too stretched. I think Jacinda would give him Poto Williams' portfolios too if she could, as she is clearly not coping, but he's too busy.
Bomber's too optimistic.
If they adopt it, no way will they get 7%. If they scrape in with 5% it will be a considerable surprise to me. I'm picking 4%, perhaps 3.5%. He's likely to be right about James deciding enough's enough though.
And hey, discrimination against males is cool in the GP will be the verdict that turns voters off. Why is this not obvious to the Green Caucus & Exceutive already?? They can blather until they’re blue in the face that the rule change doesn’t thus discriminate. Technically correct is not a win – perception defeats reality!
Come election this term, James Shaw will be the only Green MP to have achieved anything. The rest have just dragged.
I have a lot of confidence he will land his portfolio well.
If he walks he will go straight to something useful in Wellington like DPMC or KPMG.
Jan Logie did achieve having some birth injuries being covered by ACC. Logie is currently chipping away at the ACC sensitive claims process. It is brutal, repetitive and slow.
Davidson has not done well with emergency housing. Now that the country has opened up I expect rents will rise and there will be less capacity in motels for emergency housing. The shortage and cost of building materials is also a concern. People will stay in a rental longer due to this.
Agreed Ad. Shaw has been the Green's major asset since Metiria left.
The Greens are polling 10%-doing fine.
Bomber is stirring, as is Trotter, who has always hated the Greens (and seems to be thick with Bomber).
https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2022/04/eighty-one-thousand-votes.html
It'll be interesting to see how the Green party membership votes regards list ranking and co leadership.
It will demonstrate how the majority of members feel about the tinkering
Also, we'll see how the SGM pans out, and which recommendations are approved
I’ve been a TOP voter for the last 2 elections – kind of a protest vote. But practically I think the Greens have the best chance of leading Aotearoa to a more just system of redistribution of wealth.
Their identity bollocks is bloody annoying divisive and alienating tho. Despite that, I am inclined to hold my nose and vote Green for a better chance of fairer taxation, benefits, and investment in the future.
Labour’s incrementalism doesn’t cut it.
Me too
What would a Russian victory in Ukraine look like?
Russia's ally in Syria gives us a some idea of what Ukraine under Russian occupation would be like.
Don't support fascism. (It really shouldn't have to be said).
Syria is not an "occupied" country. As far as I know it has its own government.
Disappearances of citizens with no trial are a hall mark of fascist states.
The policy of abducting of political activists and journalists and elected representatives common in Assad’s Syria, are now being carried in areas of occupied Ukraine by Russian forces.
You are the fascists!
A fascist state is one that is ruled by fascists. As far as I know Russia does not rule any part of Ukraine.
Mikesh, "as far as you know" is not very far..
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
Russia seized control of most of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, except for the northern areas of the Arabat Spit and the Syvash, which were still ruled by Ukraine right up until February this year when Russia forcibly occupied and imposed their rule on these last bits of Crimea as well.
Some other parts of Ukraine in the Donbas region, are also effectively ruled from Russia. Donetsk in eastern Ukraine is ruled by Russia-backed separatists, led by far right Russian Nationalists and neo-nazis, with state backing from Russia.
For your information Crimea is a part of Ukraine that Russia rules.
For your information, Crimea is part of Russia. Crimea has been been part of Russia for 300 years, and it was returned to Russia in 2014 with the consent of the Crimean people, the majority of whom are Russian anyway.
I think the transfer of Crimea in 1954 was effected by the Soviet Union, not by Russia. Russia and the Soviet Union were of course separate entities, and the latter no longer exists
It is your knowledge, I think, which does not "extend very far".
Putin’s fascists: the Russian state’s long history of cultivating homegrown neo-Nazis
Russia has Neo-Nazis, as has every country probably, but they have no influence on government. It is actually the Ukraine that is led by Neo-Nazis. Zelenskyy himself campaigned on a "peace" policy, and I think that that is a policy he would have preferred to have followed, but the Nazi faction in the Ukraine, I think, wouldn't let him, so instead he was forced to continue the bombing of the Eastern regions. Not only that but he (was forced?) to endorse a policy aimed at conquering Crimea – a policy which Putin could scarcely be expected to countenance – and I think that ultimately this was the policy that led to the invasion.
The men of the Donbas "republic",incidentally, are not Nazis, just men unwilling to live under Ukraine's Nazi rule. This war actually started in 2014 when the democratically elected president, Viktor Yanokovich, was illegally deposed by the Ukraine's Nazi element. It was at that point that they started to seek autonomy.
Quite obviously the flattening of cities is not a big issue for you.
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Unless you think Ukraine is flattening its own cities to discredit Russia.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Bombing of Warsaw
There is not one neo-nazi representative in the Ukraine parliament. Ukrainian neo-nazi and far right candidates got less than 2% of the vote.
The illegal ousting of Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 was engineered by fascists, so clearly they have sufficient influence to be able to pull strings.
No matter how many times you stick a label on your enemies as fascist, or communist, or capitalist, does not justify the flattening of cities.
True. Simply imposing a label never justifies anything.
Targeting heavily populated civilian centres is a war crime amounting to genocide.
Abhorent, I agree. But it "takes two to tango". The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion; which clearly they did.
Which side do you think closest resembles by their tactics and strategies Nazis?
Irrelevant.
The Ukranian authorities would have to be considered equally guilty if they provoke an invasion;
I should have added that this war might well have ended a lot sooner had the USA and GB not been supplying the Ukrainians eith weapons. And it may not even have started if the Ukranians had not been able to anticipate such assistance. So the burden of guilt would have to fall on the USA and GB also.
In case you hadn't noticed, the Ukrainians are fighting a proxy war on behalf of Uncle Sam.
Principled rightists are rare beasts but one just resigned as Conservative justice minister in the UK due to govt delinquency:
With Labour governments in the UK now being virtually impossible due to FPP, Scottish nationalism and a corporate media environment that is relentlessly hostile to them – politics is now reduced to which faction of the Tory party is in power.
It is a contest between the 'levelling up' nationalists wanting to make Britain great again, project power globally and not averse to governments doing stuff and spending money (Johnson faction) – and the swivel-eyed neoliberal loons of the 'Singapore on Thames' mob.(Sunak faction).
Depressing and boring all round.
Depressing and boring all round.
Hard to argue with that. Starmer does seem notably centrist however – which we could translate as electable. Not that his likely default to a neoliberal agenda would please many other than as least/worst option. But you're right to imply that tories must implode to get that scenario activated. Boris is a scrapper. Opinion polls trending down for him would be a signal to watch for.
People seem to forget, ignore or stick their fingers in their ears and go lalala that England is predominantly a centre right country and has been since '79. All hard left labour leaders since have led the party to record breaking defeats.
It's like these "turn labour left" people have no idea of the real state of play in politics. It might not be what's needed, or desired by the more politically engaged, but winning the trust of the middle and dragging them left without scaring the voters away is the only way right wing conservatism can be kept from running amok unchecked. Add in a virtual monopoly of right leaning media it makes party messaging even more vital than ever. One has to be in it to win it.
“Edwina Currie boasts ‘I don’t care’ Boris Johnson broke law because Tories will win anyway”
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/edwina-currie-boasts-i-dont-26700483
Agreed, I think it is now 44! years since a Labour leader not named Blair has been voted in as PM
People switch off and disengage. Voter turnout tumbles. Mission accomplished.
I commented the other day on the nuclear weapon's strategy of mutually assured destruction and how the policy can no longer be relied on in the context of current events (if it ever could have been previously).
Refreshingly, here is someone who knows what they are talking about saying similar things.
The MAD (appropriate acronymn!!) strategy assumed a that major actors would be rational and would care for their own lives, and that of their population, and hence would not resort to the use of such weapons.
The problem is that Putin, in a nefariously rational way, is threatening use of weapons if other nations go too far in terms of trying to stop him getting his way. Thus, nuclear weapons have suddenly become a major problem when a major power uses nuclear weapons to bully other nations into acquiescing to his demands and actions no matter how horrific they are.
The problem being that if that sort of behaviour is tolerated, then it will continue to be repeated until the bully nation gets all it wants.
This is a very thorny problem without any obvious solution. To me, it seems nuclear war is almost unavoidable at some point in the future with this sort of cavalier attitude.
Once we get through the current crisis, I think this is an issue world leaders will need to address.
One solution I proposed the other day, was that the super powers could agree to disband nuclear weapons in favour of large thermobaric ones if they still want to maintain a MAD policy. Those weapons have city-killing potential without the nuclear fall-out problems that could kill civilisation. So would do the job of MAD without the wider implications.
Perhaps that could be a first step to total de-escalation and move towards a much more sustainable future of peace and co-operation.
Yes. If Putin wants to invade eastern Poland or the Baltic states for instance – exactly what would stop him if he recycles the same successful tactic? This has been the gorilla in the living room from the very start of this Ukrainian butchery.
In doing this Putin stepped over a line – he has essentially said that he is the greater madman, that he believes it is worth ending civilisation to obtain his goals. Effectively he is now a greater monster than Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and Hitler combined. You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West – and there is the very real possibility he is so unhinged that he is willing to end the world to achieve it. If there is any truth to the idea that Alexandr Dugin has and is influencing his beliefs then we have to take this possibility seriously.
The lazy strategy in response is to hope for an internal coup to topple him. Small odds of success in my view.
The next strategy is to call his bluff as the West has been doing in a proportionate fashion, arming Ukraine and aiding with intelligence and imposing sanctions. The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world. Gradually ramping up the military pressure without triggering a nuclear response. This is the ‘ how lucky do you feel punk’ plan.
The third strategy that would be the most dramatic, but could be the most profound. A global Mexican standoff – an open declaration that at the moment the first Russian nuke of any size is detonated anywhere that there will be an immediate, unconstrained launch of every western nuclear weapon onto not only Russia but onto every nation aligned with them.
There is only one feasible, enduring solution to this threat – that the nations cede their power to commit war and their surrender their nuclear weapons in toto to a global body. The only way to ensure this happens now is through fear of the consequences of failing to do so.
At the outset such a global body would be deeply imperfect, it would still be riven by contention and conflict between the democratic and authoritarian powers. It would still lack a universal embracing of a moral principle to guide it, it would struggle to attain an authentic democratic accountability. But if the alternative was extinction we might just have to swallow the largest rodent in all of human history and do it.
You have to keep in mind that his ultimate goal is the destruction of the West
Really?? I doubt it. But if so, Ukraine would have to be seen as aiding him by providing him with a justifiable target with which to start such a project.
"The next step is to take out a Russian cruiser in the Black Sea, or start seizing Russian merchant navy and aviation anywhere in the world."
The Ukranians claim they have just scored a damaging hit on the Russian missile cruiser, the Moskva. Still awaiting independent confirmation of that. But if true, would make the Russians feel a bit nervous about their other ships near Ukraine.
Red, you would enjoy some of the podcasts on youtube by Peter Zeihan, a really insightful geopolitical analyst.
He thinks it is unlikely that Russia will use a tactical nuke in Ukraine (though not ruling it out entirely). His view is that if Russia were to do that, one of the consequences would be that every Nato nation would very quickly have nuclear missiles on their countries pointing directly at Russia.
So, hopefully, the use of a tactical nuke isn't so likely. And hopefully, Putin still fears MAD, and is just bluffing in that respect.
Further to my post above, it looks like something drastic has happened on the Russian flag ship, the Moskva.
Apparently the Russians are saying that a fire on board caused ammunition to detonate meaning that the crew was evacuated. According the Ukranians, they have hit it with neptune missiles.
Be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic.
A warship is built in 1979. Suddenly, after 43 years of operation without catching fire, and a few hours after Ukraine claims to have hit it with missiles, Russia says it had an 'onboard fire' and 'ammunition explosion' without admitting any attack! Quite the coincidence there.
For amusing mockery of Russian lies and evil behaviour, I recommend Darth Putin and Sputnik_not
I smiled to myself reading your mention of taking out a cruiser on the black sea as it was already done.
Dear Moskva,
No really, go fuck yourself.
– Ukraine
Already a precedent for it
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Unconditional surrender
We tolerated it
Yes. In my opinion, that was the worst war crime in the history of the world.
However, I think that so horrified the world, that it led to the MAD doctrine, given that other countries had also developed nukes.
I the world needs to be horrified in a similar way again to move towards planet-saving change.
See above.
It doesn't matter what type of weapon levels cities, we're already witnessing the levelling of cities.
Our youth are already traumatised enough, by the adults in the room and their indifference and the pandemic, global warming, no path to a bright future, and now this Putin psycho. You reckon lobbing a nuke will help? Sounds desperate. Take a breath.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped. But violence begets trauma begets violence, and the hate lives on.
We can’t break a cycle of grudges with a nuke.
Clearly Putin needs to be stopped.
Indeed. I am all ears.
What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.
With the use of these bombs Japan would not have been forced to surrender until the country was wiped out.
What are you talking about? Regurgitating US myths – next you'll tell us that WWII in Europe was resolved thanks entirely to US involvement – another myth.
https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/education/008/expertclips/010
Oh well so nuclear weapons are not so scary after all. Whatever were we thinking.
I'm guessing this means NATO can now go ahead and enter Ukraine and crush the Russians with impunity.
Please point out where I said or implied any of that. I was refuting an entirely different claim.
Quite a ridiculous stretch, I expect an apology and a retraction.
Why would they? Oh, of course, I forgot. This is a proxy war fought on behalf of Uncle Sam.
The war in Europe was lost without Lend Lease and US industrial might.
Churchill had just raised his glass for the concluding toast when
Stalin requested the privilege of proposing one more toast—to the
President and people of the United States:
This generous tribute prompted Roosevelt to ask for the last word.
He talked about the diversity of political complexions around the
banquet table which, he said, reminded him of the rainbow, to Ameri
cans “a symbol of good fortune and of hope.” The President con
tinued:
W. Averell Harriman – Special Envoy to Churchill and Stalin, 1941-1946
First of all, I want to say about the words of Stalin, which he repeated several times when we had "free conversations" among ourselves. He directly said that if the United States had not helped us, we would not have won this war: face to face with Nazi Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and lost the war.
Nikita Khrushchev – Post-war reflections
http://militera.lib.ru/memo/russian/khruschev1/28.html
Even before the United States entered World War II in December 1941, America sent arms and equipment to the Soviet Union to help it defeat the Nazi invasion. Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency, the Lend-Lease Act of the United States supplied needed goods to the Soviet Union from 1941 to 1945 in support of what Stalin described to Roosevelt as the “enormous and difficult fight against the common enemy — bloodthirsty Hitlerism.”
https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-to-the-soviet-union-1941-1945/
That's right, the US contributed greatly but the insertion of US armed forces was not the sole reason behind victory in Europe, it required a large number people and governments, you know, the Allied powers, working together. Funny that.
“What are you talking about. The bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved millions of lives. Both in Japanese and American servicemen and Japanese civilians.”
I think that explanation was a nonsense argument, providing cognitive dissonance to justify the horror of what happened.
The US could have chosen a much slower but far less damaging method to achieve the same end. For instance, blockading all of Japans ports until they surrendered. There wasn't any need for any more US or Japanese to die.
First of all, you are assuming that the Japanese would have surrendered if subject to blockade – an outcome completely unpredictable in 1945 and completely at variance with the fanatical resistance of the Japanese up to that point. The use of atomic weapons acted as a circuit breaker that gave the Japanese a way out.
Second, you are dismissing the mass starvation that would have been caused by a blockade. The chances are many more, potentially running to the millions, could have starved to death (including large numbers of Allied POWs being held by the Japanese in Japan) than those who died in the nuclear attacks.
Third you are not considering the considerable political impetus to use nuclear weapons in 1945. Consider this. It is December 1945, and you are a US Congressman attending a rally. An angry mother demands to know why her son was killed two days ago in a Kamikaze attack on his blockading cruiser when the United States had possessed for many months a wonder weapon of enormous power, but hadn't chosen to use it. Another man chimes in, saying he had heard via the Red Cross his son, a POW since 1942, had starved to death in November. He also wants to know why the government hadn't used this weapon on an enemy everyone (after three years of propaganda) agreed were little more than sentient Monkeys and saved his boy. No elected politician would want to answer those questions and if you were that congressman you'd be really, really pissed at any president who didn't use said wonder weapon at the earliest opportunity.
It is all very well to sit back eighty years later and make rational arguments when in full possession of the facts but people in 1945 neither had all the facts or even if they had were disposed to give a brutal, dehumanised and merciless enemy any benefit of the doubt whatsoever.
The Germans terror bombed Warsaw and Rotterdam, and they got Hamburg and Dresden. The Japanese brutalised Allied POWs and fought with merciless savagery and they got Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is how the remorseless escalation of violence in war work.
You may be right. And we are looking back 80 years. Which is why I am not into "whataboutism" because most countries these days try to do everything possible to avoid the use of nukes.
But, I still see the deliberate targeting of civilian populations with nuclear weapons has to be, by definition, the ultimate expression of a war crime.
Sure, nukes were the shiny new thing back then, and people didn't know the full implications of them. But I still think there were much more peaceful options available.
Another option may have been to have a demonstration of nuke at sea so the Japanese could see what might be in store for them if they continued the fight.
The threat of something is often more effective than actually doing it. That is because the Japanese, including its leaders, would have no idea who the target of the weapon might be, if it were actually used.
I just don't accept that the use of nukes on civilian populations had to be the only option considered. What would we say today if Russia did that to say, Kiev?
I think you are ascribing far to much thinking and nuance to a political process that basically went like this: "We've got the bomb, they don't, lets nuke 'em – they deserve it – and end this damn war quickly. Oh and while we are it at the same time show the Commies in Moscow they should be afraid, very afraid".
The secondary debate about morality and how many people might have died either way was left for philosophers, theologians and historians at a later date.
As for the Russian maybe using nuclear weapons – these are now understood to be weapons of last resort, for use only in retaliation for an existential nuclear attack. Russia would gain nothing by using nuclear weapons except to create an exceptional risk of total annihilation. Putin is as crazy as a cut snake, so who knows how far he is prepared to go but the United States has made 100% crystal clear it would respond in kind to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine.
The blockade idea was actually working – not cruisers, but US submarines had basically obliterated maritime traffic of all sizes around the Home Islands. It was just a matter of time until surrender.
But also, I haven't seen any example of any part of US government that was in the know even considering not using the Bomb. Some had the vengeance thing going, others wanted to see its effects, some wanted it as a warning to the Soviets, but these all seem to be "add-on" motives. The Bomb was going to be dropped, lots of folks could see positive angles for their own policy area or bugbear, but not dropping it doesn't seem to have seriously occurred to anyone.
Well, you don't spend two billion in 1940s dollars for something you are not going to use.
The Japanese surrender was not precipitated by the nukes, but by Russia's rejection of a conditional surrender.
Once Russia entered the war in the East, Japan had no options left short of unconditional surrender. But the bureaucracy was a little slow, as it was with the declaration of war prior to Pearl Harbour.
Winners don’t commit war crimes.
As an aside, while the Manhatten project cost two billion the cost to develop the B-29 bomber was three billion so the two atomic bombs and their delivery system represented a massive investment.
In context, it was the equivalent at the time of forty fleet aircraft carriers complete with their air groups.
The B29 killed more people with incendiaries than the Silverplate mod did with nukes.
It's a little-known fact that the delivery platform cost more than the device, but it's a mistake to add the two together.
Yes this is effectively what Putin is doing, threatening nuclear extinction and using as cover to achieve the unconditional surrender of first Ukraine – then Europe.
Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack. Plus Xi has not yet made his public move.
Putin has appointed a new military leader who openly prefers the standard Soviet siege strategy of slowly surrounding, starving and shelling opponents into surrender regardless of casualties.
As per Mariupol. Big success.
Mariupol has held out for six weeks (so far).
Hopefully the Russians will look at the battle for Mariupol, consider the cost, and recall the words of Mustapha Pasha, the leader of the Turkish army during the Great Seige of Malta in 1565, when after very heavy losses to his army he stood on the smoking ruins of the desperately defended small fort of St. Elmo and looked across the bay at the solid walls of Fort St Angelo:
“If so small a son has cost us so dear,” he exclaimed, “what price shall we have to pay for so large a father?”
Well yes that is also a reasonable argument.
The critical strategic advantage now lies with Ukraine:
As others have said Poots has run out of easy options – only hard ones are left.
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I'm not sure the 1565 Great Seige of Malta by the Ottoman Turks will necessarily be sitting uppermost in the minds of Russian strategists at the moment.
Nor will the 1315 Battle of Morgarten, in which the independence-seeking Swiss ambushed Duke Leopold I's well-trained army of Hapsburg mercenaries on the shores of Lake Ageri with Louis X of France exclaiming: “They appear outraged by the ban imposed by the Bishop of Bern's emissaries yet are reluctant to act for fear of Schwyz violence”.
I'd aver the Ruskies will also pay little, if any, heed to the position of the Luftwaffe in 1945, the 1240 Sacking of Sandomierz during the first Mongol invasion of Poland, in which the Abbot of Koprzywnica and all his monks were brutally murdered with boiling molasses, the position the French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps found itself in towards the end of the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War, the predicament of the German High Seas fleet after the Battle of Jutland in 1916, of which an American journalist observed – “the German fleet has assaulted its jailer, but it is still in jail”, the position of the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty in northern China on the eve of the 1211 Battle of Yehuling where the Mongol Empire forces of Genghis Khan ultimately prevailed, albeit at the cost of weakening certain allied tribes …
Nor, for that matter, do I suspect Russian strategists will currently be pondering lessons to be learned from the decidedly gruesome 1676 Sea Battle of the Faroes, in which the combined maritime forces of Denmark & Norway under King Frederick V were massacred in a surprise axe-wielding ship invasion by men serving under the rebellious Icelandic Sea Captain & former Pirate Ólafur Halldór Gunnarsson.
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Very funny – but now you are just showing off.![cheeky cheeky](https://cdn2.thestandard.org.nz/wp-content/plugins/ark-wysiwyg-comment-editor/ckeditor/plugins/smiley/images/tongue_smile.png?x42494)
.
All genuine battles & seiges, RL, with valuable life-lessons for Sanc to imbibe & learn … except, perhaps, the last-mentioned axe-wielding homicidal Icelandic maniac … that was probably just wishful thinking …
… also not entirely sure there was ever a French Womens Auxilliary Balloon Corps on reconnaissance duties during the 1870-71 Franco-Prussian War … but, by the same token, we can't completely rule it out either.
And I would not want you to. Sounds far too delicious.
Mar figures inflation
Lithuania 15.9%
Latvia 11.5%
Estonia 15.2%
Poland 11%
Germany 7.3% (wholesale 22.2%)
Euro depreciation (us$) 12 months 10%
Ruble depreciation (us$) 8%
“Except that his capacity to use an army as leverage is now in question due to the surprising failure of his surprise attack.”
The fact that the Russian army has performed so badly is even more scary.
The point that Peter Zeihan makes is that previously US and NATO strategists expected that the Russians would be very tough opponents in a conventional war. But now it has become very obvious to both NATO and Russia that Russia would be obliterated in any conventional conflict. Thus the only choice for Russia would be a humiliating defeat or resorting immediately to nukes.
Hence, NATO wants to do everything possible to avoid direct conflict with Russia. Which is why they want to bleed Russia dry in Ukraine rather than allow the possibility of Russia succeeding and facing off directly with Poland (a NATO country) as a result.
So if NATO does what you suggest, everyone will look at how long it will take & who pays the cost of the attrition…
I think NATO did originally see it as a war of attrition because they expected that Russia would win the conventional war against Ukraine very quickly, and then NATO would be supporting an insurgency.
However, due to the success of the Ukraine military, and the horrors of the war crimes by Russia, I think the mood has now changed so that NATO would be very happy to see Ukraine soundly beat Russia.
Hence, I think if you look at the various media reports, NATO is now supplying a lot more heavy weapons that have the potential to enable Ukraine defeat Russia outright.
With the attack on the Moskva, Ukraine has opened up a new flank. If the Russian fleet is as much of a paper tiger as other Russian forces, Russian forces besieging Mariupol may find themselves hung out to dry with no lines of supply or retreat.
Xi has his hands full dealing with Omicron and decreased productivity. See what happens in the next month with Covid case numbers in Shanghai.
Tsar Poot's went into Ukraine with a pair 7's to bluff everyone, that he is willing to use his Nukes/ WMD's if they deployed Troops into Ukraine.
His bluff hasn't work nor has hand with a pair 7's as the Ukrainian resolve & it's Security Forces have given him a frightful belting that no one really predicted unless you really understand the doctrine of Territorial Defence.
Poot's is running out of options fast & now it appears the Russian Flag Ship of the Black Fleet has met it's Trafalgar.
If anyone here understand the mindset of a Slavic Male, they don't like losing to inferior people/ nations
To those who have following Tsar Poot's in particular his dark arts from the KGB & you throw in Maskirovka which is almost as old as Russia itself.
Then Tsar Poots Best Bets Form Guide, tells you he is capable of doing it & at 3/1 he will, be it he is winning or when he is at last chance saloon.
9th May is going to be D Day (Victory Day over Nazi Germany) in Russia for Tsar Poot's.
Hmmm, the Moskva is supposed to have a layered air defense of S-300 and 9K33 missiles and 130mm rapid fire (up to 40 RPM) guns and 30mm CIWS as well as a shipload of passive (flares, jammers, chaff) counter-measures yet appears to have been hit by a single, high subsonic anti-ship missile using conventional radar guidance that was probably fired off the back of a Toyota with no counter-measures to support it.
let me guess – The ships systems are either not working and/or not competently crewed and/or completely ineffective and/or the ship was recklessly exposed to a missile strike.
The record since WW2 of surface ships successfully engaging anti-ship missiles is not encouraging for naval types who like to stay dry, yet Navies these days insist on building 10,000 ton "destroyers" as big as pre WW2 treaty cruisers, and probably as vulnerable to missile attack as those earlier ships were to air attack. From the INS Eilat to PNS Khaibar to HMS Sheffield to USS Stark to the Moskva the case against surface ships is building all the time…
As Karl Dönitz said, admirals like big ships, because "you can't parade a band on the deck of a submarine".
Word has its the Ukrainian Military baited them with a couple of those Turkish UAV's & smashed them with 2 Neptune's.
Instead of looking Up, they should've been looking out.
Mao, once said in his wee book for a guerrilla warfare, make noise in the East & attack from the West.
That is a pretty detailed engagement report, your twitter is clearly better than my twitter.
Well it makes sense, if the Ukrainian Military Forces have used those Turkish UAV's again.
In their last attack on Russian Ships, when the Ukrainians drop a couple bombs literally through the hatch (well the Cargo hull was open at the time) onto the vehicle deck that was full bang (ammo) & the valuable Russian Landing Ship went boom.
Here's a detailed report, of what may've happened to that Russia Battlewagon today.
The Ukranian's have literally taken the Territorial Defence Doctrine to a whole new level.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1514498197489659909?t=JoL7vldx57ceoXZJfZyNkg&s=19
The ship is a strategic missile platform,it more then likely does have at least 16 warheads on board in case of Nato intervention,and a switch to strategic defense.
Yes, word is the thing is at the bottom of the sea now. Apparently the single largest loss of life event the Russians have experienced in the war thus far.
This is not going to be ideal for Russian's supply of cruise missiles that they were starting to run short of I think.
I was wondering if there were any nukes on board. Hopefully not.
With a rather large bang.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1514394568405438467
And, technically, an incoming warhead is an "ammunition explosion" in its own right – just Ukrainian ammunition, not Russian…
It's now the biggest Combat Surface Unit to be sunk Post WW2, the previous country was Argentina in the Falklands War. It's Brooklyn Class Crusier was sunk a Pommy SSN ( Nuclear Attack Sub) with a Torpedo dating back to WW2.
When Kruschev said "We will bury you", I don't think he talking about some future military action; I think he meant that the USSR would come to lead the world economically. To bring Europe into some sort of Russian empire that's what Russia would have to do. By themselves I don't think that that would be possible; but with China's help, who knows.
What the actual fuck! England taking lessons in migrant handling from Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/13/priti-patel-finalises-plan-to-send-asylum-seekers-to-rwanda?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Unbelievable (quoted from article):
On the other hand maybe not surprising. Surely, there's money to be made by the Tory party donors. The company running the Australian off-shore camp is doing very well from what I've read.
Louisa Wall's valedictory to Parliament today
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/departing-labour-mp-louisa-wall-gives-valedictory-speech-after-claims-she-was-unwanted/LVL373OGWHXXQGGRIUI2AHXCSE/
Looks like she lost the confidence of her colleagues, and read the writing on the "wall". I can see why Manurewa voters do not care for a neoliberal obsessed with identity issues rather than the concerns of her working class electorate. Agree with Sanctuary.