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Open mike 14/07/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, July 14th, 2021 - 157 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

157 comments on “Open mike 14/07/2021 ”

  1. pat 1

    “The terrible truth is dawning. The extreme heat wave – or ‘heat dome’ – over Canada’s British Columbia and the US state of Oregon is tragic evidence that it’s too late. We can’t reduce the blanket of greenhouse gases we’ve put up there. It will remain, virtually forever.

    The focus now is on what we can and must do to stop it getting worse.”


    • Forget now 1.1

      “Virtually forever” is a bit hyperbolic (except for CF4), but certainly longer than a single human lifetime. CO2 is the main greenhouse gas and its atmospheric lifetime is between 5-200 years according to NASA (Though I have heard 1-1000 years to emphasize the uncertainty in persistence).


      I did like the idea of electric buses and shuttles though. Down in Dunedin, there is a tension between the Otago Regional Council and the DCC. With the ORC currently running (via subcontracting) the buses throughout the region using large vehicles that would technically be more efficient if they were ever full. However they are also not that frequent, and sometimes unreliable. Smaller electric shuttles off the main routes would suit Dunedin’s narrow winding hill suburbs better (especially with regenerative braking). It’s not uncommon for large buses to have to drive over roundabouts, or even block entire streets if there are cars parked on the sides.

      But the ORC remain focused on vehicles for the wide open roads. And the DCC’s attempts to prise the local bus service off them don’t seem to be going very fast.

      • Poission 1.1.1

        The problem of electricity substitution for FF transport,is that we have both insufficient capacity for renewable generation,and a need to generate using FF from thermals just to maintain NI usage.

        Today if a thermal ,or transmission fault occurs,the North Island will brown out.


        • pat

          and yet there appears little in the way of concrete planning to address that

          • Graeme

            Government (MBIE) is working on NZ Battery Project, effectively a business case for Lake Onslow pumped hydro.

            If it’s viable, Onslow would retire current thermal generation and allow a lot more wind and solar to be built. A few issues around the structure of the generation market though and who will own it and profit by it.

            Also at present constraints like this are where the generators make their money

            • pat

              Yes and sadly that appears to be about the sum total and the belated process is still years away from decision…never mind any anticipated construction delays should it get approved

              • Poission

                Onslow and others are in essence thing big projects (where political projection is larger then the outcomes) ie the bigger the bullshit the bigger the sale by politicians.

                For energy we should be thinking small,diverse,and geographically distributed.

                Solar for example should be installed in all schools,during school holidays the excess would be available for the national grid during daylight,reducing hydro loads (and ff) and in addition reducing OPEX for schools.

                • pat

                  Onslow is insurance for dry year reduced hydro output (roughly 60% of current total generation)…..there is no reason why local distributed generation cannot occur as well.

              • Cricklewood

                Yet we are trying to accelerate the uptake of electric car use… and in the meantime we are burning about the dirtiest coal possible in record amounts….

                Here’s a novel idea can prob even reheat the old tv ads, explain the hydro dams are very low and ask NZrs to conserve electrity…

                At the very least will help reduce our coal burn

              • Graeme

                Onslow and pumped hydro isn’t new, it was being talked about when Clyde was built. It’s one of the reasons provision was made in the Clyde Dam for another two machines, that’s the two unused penstocks at the southern end.

                Don’t have any documentary proof on that but was discussion amongst engineers when I was a technician there during construction.

                Provided nothing fatal comes up in the business case MBIE are working on I’d expect things could move very quickly. Situations like Poission linked to are just what the Minister needs to get action.

                Unfortunately construction of new generation has been left to the industry, who’s motivation is profit. Constraints / scarcity drive profit (to a point, then the regulator comes in with big boots on in current system) so there’s not incentives to have large surplus capacity.

                • pat

                  “According to a factsheet released in July, the scheme seeking a solution to the dry year problem that has kept New Zealand reliant on fossil fuels for a small portion of our generation for decades was due to complete an initial investigation of options in 2021 and a more rigorous business case in 2022. The construction of whatever project was finally recommended by officials was slated to begin as early as 2022.

                  However, an update Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods provided to Cabinet in December, just months after the NZ Battery project was launched, shows the timelines have already blown out considerably. Now, the first phase of the investigation is only expected to wrap up in May 2022. A second phase would finish in mid-2023 if all went well, or as late as early 2024, Woods wrote.”



                  And yes the profit motive for gentailers appears a problem as outlined on RNZ this morning…..a lot of problems and very little urgency in applying solutions.

      • pat 1.1.2

        not to mention electric rail

          • pat

            everything comes with constraints….though I wonder how often european or asian train services are disrupted by frosts?

        • Graeme

          With the ORC’s it’s any rail, not just electric rail that they won’t entertain. Rugby stadium however, not a problem.

          • pat

            Why is that?

            • McFlock

              Fundamental disinterest in adaptation within the ORC transport unit is one factor. Rumour has it that the DCC started making the bus hub before the ORC would countenance moving the bus route a block off the main street.

              I really want the DCC to just take over dunedin public transport. The DCC keeps planning on trialling passenger rail (the trials have to work around the heavy freaight use seasons on the line, I've been told).

              ORC couldn't care less about rail.

              • pat

                I wonder how much this has to do with the lack of interest


                • McFlock

                  What's that got to do with getting people from Mosgiel to Palmerston and anywhere in between?

                  edit: but for that matter, a decent rail link to the city’s airport might be an idea for anyone serious about getting dunedinites out of cars.

                  • pat

                    Its got everything to do with where your revenue comes from and where your investment goes

                    • weka

                      Can you please connect the dots for us? What's the connection between ORC and QAC?

                    • McFlock

                      How does ORC get revenue from queenstown airport?

                    • pat
                      • In the year ended June 2019:
                        • 2.3 million passengers passed through the terminal
                        • There were 58,536 aircraft movements at Queenstown Airport, including scheduled services, private jets and general aviation.
                      • Four commercial airlines currently operate at the airport: Air New Zealand, Jetstar, Qantas, and Virgin Australia.
                      • The airport is the direct domestic and international entry point to the lower South Island, providing easy access to Queenstown, one of the world’s premium visitor destinations, and to some of New Zealand’s most renowned scenery and visitor experiences. As such, it serves the communities across the region and contributes significantly to the growth and prosperity of New Zealand’s tourism sector.

                      ORC gets its revenue from the businesses and residents supported by that influx.

                    • McFlock

                      ORC gets its revenue from the businesses and residents supported by that influx.

                      QLDC has half the GDP of Dunedin.

                    • weka

                      what's the connection with ORC being uninterested in coastal Otago rail?

                    • pat

                      Currently….but where is the growth? Queenstown and Lakes highest growth area in country (before covid) …three times the rate of Dunedin.

                    • McFlock

                      Oh, it'll keep booming until there's a global shock again. Disease, war, a credit crunch, any of them.

                      Also, seems to me they're charging lower rates in q'town than dunedin as a function of property value.

                • pat

                  "what's the connection with ORC being uninterested in coastal Otago rail?"

                  If you have limited resources where do you invest?…where you get the biggest bang for the buck (where you see the possibility of growth)….is rail going to bring 2.5m additional customers to your door every year?….while a well designed and run rail service may reduce activity…all those lost truck movements…regional economies love nothing more than spending from without (exports)

                  • McFlock

                    What do tourists buy off the ORC?

                    • pat

                      Where does ORCs revenue come from?

                    • McFlock

                      Not from tourists.

                    • pat

                      are you being deliberately obtuse?….where would the businesses and residents be without that annual influx and spend?….Queenstown Lakes wouldnt have been the growth engine of the ORC catchment….and that means less revenue for the ORC, or alternatively higher impediment to a diminished base with all the consequent risks.

                    • McFlock

                      .and that means less revenue for the ORC,

                      That's the bit you're not connecting with the tourist influx.

                      As far as I can see, unless ORC has a tourist shop on Rees St then the main impact tourists will have is very indirectly on property prices, which Q'town actually pays less on per $100k value than dunedin does. But tourists don't buy lifestyle blocks.

                      "Growth engine" my arse. subsidised by port otago dividends and dunedin ratepayers, more like.

                    • pat

                      "Growth Change Factors Economic growth in Otago is dominated by tourism, primary production and education. The economy has been impacted negatively by the COVID-19 situation. Pre COVID-19 the population within certain areas of Otago was forecast to grow over the next ten years, the most significant being in the Queenstown Lakes district. Resident population in Queenstown is forecast to grow by 2.6% each year over the next ten years, and visitor numbers to grow by 2.4% per annum. This projection will be revised as part of the LTP 2021-31 process. There is currently a high level of uncertainty on growth over medium term and how that might impact on Council activity. Medium to longer term changes in the economy and population are likely to impact on the level of many activities carried out by Council, such as transport, demand on resource use, environmental incidents, civil defence and emergency management. The Council’s immediate short-term response is to maintain Council’s service for 202020-21 and seek revised forecasts on the impacts of COVID-19."

                      Page 37


                    • McFlock

                      How does that affect ORC revenue?

                      I can see how "impact on council activity" can be shorthand for "more buses and stress on water quality", but putting actual money in the council's pocket?

  2. Sacha 2

    Has been raised here before.

    • Rosemary McDonald 2.1

      A rebuttal, of sorts, to the Quillette thing…from the Dark Horse's mouth. An investment.


      (Youtube censored Dark Horse for the offending podcasts. Some here critical of Youtube as being the font of all nonsense might see that as an positive with regards to Weinstein and Heying's authority.)

    • mauī 2.2

      Strange the Quilette piece uses so much emotive language for a scientific article.. like "bonkers", "insane", "ruinous", "eccentric", "cause carnage", "notorious conspiracy theory".

      But when you're up against those conspiracy theorists like an expert in mRNA vaccines, a leading medical researcher and an experienced doctor on the covid frontlines, you have to win the argument somehow…

      • Rosemary McDonald 2.2.1

        …for a scientific article

        I can just about pinpoint when the rot set in…. published in an actual Sciencey Journal with a very Sciencey title, in February 2020.

        The piece starts off sounding very technical and authoritative, but just when it begins to get to the interesting part the author delivers this line…

        Lack of the definite origin of 2019-nCoV has led to speculation that 2019-nCoV might be derived from genetic manipulation or even for the purpose of use as a bioweapon. This notion has been fully debunked in the media.

        Had the authors provided a reference to where the media had published scientific proof that Te Virus hadn't originated from a lab then perhaps this might not have been so concerning. But the authors didn't…and obviously they were under the misguided impression that readers of scientific papers would find nothing incongruous in a scientist referring to the media as being an authority on a scientific matter.

        Very strange. And shit's been getting stranger ever since.

      • Incognito 2.2.2

        Strange the Quilette piece uses so much emotive language for a scientific article..

        Yeah, and even stranger is that it isn’t a scientific article in a scientific journal that has been peer-reviewed by other scientific experts. How strange indeed, you created a strawman.

        For the record, I enjoyed reading the Quillette article but then again, I would say that, of course, because I’ve been long lost to the Dark Side. FFS.

  3. Treetop 4

    Needle phobia is another reason for people not being vaccinated. This can be overcome or managed by having people arrive for the appointment and not being kept waiting or a small side room.

    There needs to be information for needle phobic people such as being able to be vaccinated in a partly reclined comfortable chair and having a support person.

  4. gsays 5

    I understand there will be a press release today about a Provisional Improvement Notice at our local DHB.

    I am keen for ideas for helping the buraurcrats solve some if the pressing issues.

    Bedspace in the hospital is one issue. How about requisitioning a hotel ala MIQ and put stable patients in makeshift wards?

    Bigger picture, when building the next hospital, listen to the staff on the floor and keep the bean counters out of the room. After all, a beer made by a bean counter is not a tasty brew.

    • Descendant Of Smith 5.1

      To be honest I had a lot of respect for the bean counter at the DHB meeting I was at who stood up and said as the DHB was deciding to reduce hours of help for the elderly –

      “You know already that we get many unpaid hours of work worth millions of dollars from the staff that currently look after those people, who despite previous cuts to hours often stay on until the person is dressed, fed, showered, etc. You also know that cutting paid hours will also give you more unpaid hours of work. I don’t support the the cuts”.

      Dunno if he still works there but it was clear that it wasn’t the bean counters that were the problem. Management was the problem – knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing.

      And yeah they cut hours again impacting on those I was advocating for.

      I’ve seen other bean-counters show similar empathy and kindness over the years as well. In my observation they often provide alongside what they have been asked specifically to cost other options and a good assessment of the pros and cons.

      Often they bear the reputational brunt of senior management decisions.

      (The site at the moment doesn’t like carriage returns. You have to go redo them in edit mode as everything gets run together when posting. Using Chrome.)

      • pat 5.1.1

        CDHB?…the management of Canterbury home care services is an absolute disaster

      • Cricklewood 5.1.2

        In health, what can amd cant be done comes down to the money provided in the budget…

        Someone has to make hard calls as to who of which sector of the community misses out.

  5. weka 6

    A bit of philosophy for lunch. Probably more broadly applicable, but also relevant to the gender/sex debate (GCFs take the position that sex is a material reality).

    • Rosemary McDonald 6.1

      “…follow the laws of perspective and reflection of light, so it is easy to arrive at a permanent object underlying all the different people’s sense-data.”

      At what point does “sense” become “nonsense”?

      Serious question…when a man says they ‘feel’ like they are a woman (trapped in a man’s body etc….), what does that actually mean?

      (I don’t know what it ‘feels’ like to be a woman…I just am a woman. ‘Feels’ have nothing to do with it.)

      Perhaps one of those people celebrating the removal of the offensive billboard giving the dictionary definition of “woman” can shed some light here.

      • I Feel Love 6.1.1

        The fact you don’t “feel” anything doesn’t disallow others to “feel” otherwise. Good for you, and myself, I’m quite happy & comfortable with who & what I am, yet I can grasp others may feel different, & who am I to say they shouldn’t, just because I don’t.

        • I Feel Love

          And maybe look a bit deeper into it, “trapped in a mans body” is quite an ignorant view TBH, which is what the SUFW thrive on.

          • weka

            Would you mind expanding in that? I know it gets used dismissively but I also hear it used within trans activism and by trans people.

          • Anker

            That is incorrect I feel love. SUFW don't thrive on "trapped in a mans body." I have heard SUFW say otherwise.

            Others are entitled to feel what they feel. I don't have a problem with that, although psychologists state there are only something like 6 or 7 feelings including sadness, fear, disgust, joy, anger.

            I accept some people feel this way, it is not a problem, the problem is that gender ideology requires me to accept their feelings as a factual reality "trans women are real women". I object to that….strongly.

        • Rosemary McDonald

          Thanks for responding…but I’m still wanting to know exactly what being a woman “feels” like, since trans ideology demands that ‘feeling‘ like a woman is all that is required to be a woman.

          To the point where the sex on a birth certificate can be changed at the stroke of a pen.

          • arkie

            Maybe this will elucidate:

          • weka

            I have a sense of myself as a woman beyond my biology but it can’t be separated from my biology (and before anyone starts, no this isn’t biological essentialism).

            I do believe there is such a thing as women’s culture and have spent a lot of time in groups and places where that’s a given.

            Trans people covers a wide range of experiences. Young lesbians transitioning then detransitioning are having different experiences than a middle aged man leaving a marriage and coming out as a TW. Technically I fit under the now very large trans umbrella in a number of ways. I feel there is so much rich human experience to be explored but no debate and neoliberalism have birthed a nasty bluepink social dynamic that serves very few well.

          • Drowsy M. Kram

            Why people identify, and are identified, as female or male is relatively clear. It’s also clear that the idea of one’s gender (woman/man) being more ‘fluid’ than one’s sex (female/male) is not for everyone.

            For women who “don’t know what it feels like to be a woman” to want/expect trans women to articulate exactly why they feel like women seems odd, but then cis women do constitute a (healthy) majority.

            Would any description of how a trans woman ‘feels like a woman‘ (or how a trans man feels like a man) be sufficient to broaden the views of those who have a firm (if narrow) grasp of what “is required to be a woman” (or man)?

            Fwiw, I’ve found it difficult to judge how to act normally (in as much as any of my behaviour qualifies as ‘normal’) around the handful of trans men of my acquaintance – I’m possibly overly attentive (a slippery slope) so as not to be seen to be ignoring/avoiding them. But maybe some are content to be ignored – would certainly be easier for introvert me.

            Transgender men and women are recognized and accepted in many Islamic cultures around the world. In fact, the idea of a man or woman identifying as a member of the opposite gender is more likely to be accepted than that of a man or woman expressing sexual desire for someone of their own gender.

            • Rosemary McDonald

              gender (woman/man)

              sex (female/male)

              Might have to put it to the vote, but I think more accurate definitions would be…

              sex(male/female, man/woman, girl/boy)

              gender(masculine/feminine, boyish/girly, and perhaps blue/pink, spice/sugar)

            • weka

              For women who “don’t know what it feels like to be a woman” to want/expect trans women to articulate exactly why they feel like women seems odd, but then cis women do constitute a (healthy) majority.

              Part of the problem here is that society is being expected to accept some big legislative and social changes without adequate explanation. If how someone identifies is sufficient without explanation, why is this not true for women as well?

              I don't need trans women to articulate exactly why they feel like a woman. I however think it's important that society gets to look at what gender and sex are, and whether prioritising gender over sex is the best way forward, and to do that we do need to have some kind of coherent and shared understanding of the various concepts. Hence the Russell quote.

              • Rosemary McDonald

                When I checked the other day, "sex" was defined as

                either of the two main categories (male and female) into which humans and most other living things are divided on the basis of their reproductive functions.

                and "gender" as

                either of the two sexes (male and female), especially when considered with reference to social and cultural differences rather than biological ones. The term is also used more broadly to denote a range of identities that do not correspond to established ideas of male and female.

                The trans lobby is so powerful that I can see these definitions being overthrown completely and biological sex being consigned to quaint scientific history.

                The idea that for millenia humans used to wrongly think that biological sex was (in the vast majority cases) accurately obvious at birth and was immutable, will be the source of much mirth.

                Much like the idea that Earth orbits the Sun.

                • Sacha

                  The idea that for millenia humans used to wrongly think that biological sex was (in the vast majority cases) accurately obvious at birth and was immutable

                  White humans, and lately a very small but loud group of them from the UK. Other people and cultures do not think the sky is falling.

                  • Rosemary McDonald

                    Unlikely that it is only white folks that understand that the perpetuation of the species relies on two different sexes.

                    Biology… kindergarten level.

                    Unlikely that it is only non white folks from placesotherthantheuk who acknowledge that forcing individuals to conform to culturally proscribed sex role stereotypes is outdated and harmful.

                    This is not about demanding that people accept gender roles (in fact, quite the opposite), it is about acknowledging that sex is real…not a social construct.

                    • Sacha

                      Biological essentialism is turning the clock back. Sad to see fear drive some women to a stance their mothers and grandmothers fought so hard to escape from under.

                    • Rosemary McDonald

                      Biological essentialism is turning the clock back.


                      You are going to have to define "biological essentialism".

                      Sad to see fear drive some women to a stance their mothers and grandmothers fought so hard to escape from under.

                      Sigh. Do I have to explain, again? It is the trans lobby turning back the clock by demanding that the sex marker on their birth certificate must be changed so it reflects the 'reality' of their gender ID.

                      As if sex dictates gender expression these days.

                      It is saddening to see that for some, being accepted as the opposite sex is vital for them to be comfortable in their own skin.

                      And as for "fear"… I am Woman, hear me roar!

                    • Drowsy M. Kram

                      It is saddening to see that for some, being accepted as the opposite sex is vital for them to be comfortable in their own skin.

                      "Saddening" because their sense of self is 'faulty'? Maybe all some transfeminine/transmasculine people need is a bit of good old-fashioned conversion therapy?


                      The ‘rising tide‘ of transgender people is a challenging trend and I'm ashamed to admit I'd rather it wasn't happening, but it's fruitless to deny the reality that "being accepted as the opposite sex is vital for them [transgender people] to be comfortable in their own skin."

                      I’m trying to understand the transgender PoV – trans men and trans women are people too – but of course that's not for everyone.

                      Comparing trans kids’ healthcare to conversion therapy makes a mockery of LGBT struggles

                      The idea that I, or trans kids growing up today, would just ‘grow out of it’ and become gay or lesbian is a ridiculous claim, and is not reflected by the majority who have been supported as themselves from an early age and are adults now.

                      Figuring out your gender is a very different process to figuring out who you’re attracted to. I feel that those who confuse the two are usually people who have always been comfortable with their gender, and don’t understand the pure joy of finally being able to break free from the limitations placed on you, and express it in a way that makes you feel good about yourself.

                      It’s easy to make assumptions and claims about something you haven’t experienced yourself.

                • pat

                  “Author? Author? Did you write these legs?'
                  'Well, I don't like dem. I don't like 'em at all at all. I could ha' writted better legs meself.”

                  ― Spike Milligan, Puckoon

                  • Rosemary McDonald

                    "My happily splashing daughter said,

                    "My legs are getting shorter!"

                    Well she must be dim, to take a swim,

                    In shark-infested water…."

                    (Also the Bard of the Silly Isles…but for the life of me I can't find it anywhere. I think it was in A Book of Bits etc.)

        • weka

          Same for me. My problem is that women are being denied the right to self ID as a class, and all the flow in effects of that politically and socially.

      • mikesh 6.1.2

        You cannot know what it feels like to be a woman because you have no way of knowing (experiencing) what it feels like to not be a woman. You need to have a basis for making comparisons.

        • Rosemary McDonald

          Personally, being a woman is not based on 'feeling', it is a reality.

          I have no choice in the matter. I was born female, and the girl grew to be a woman.

          That I can tick many of the boxes that some claim are symptoms of gender dysphoria makes me feel incredibly fortunate to have grown up during a time when there was growing acceptance of those who did not conform to traditional sex roles.

          It seems to me that much of the trans ideology is about turning back the clock to times when men were supposed to be men, and we women were supposed to be ladies.

          • Nic the NZer

            This activism grew out of literary criticism, including the claim that a piece of literature can mean whatever a reader reads, not what the author intended. On broadening to more tangible subjects the idea that reality is socially constructed is applied in similar terms.

            What Russell discusses is that there is a shared reality which is perceptible, but totally independent of our perception of that reality. Were as the socially constructed version claims that man/woman stems from language and how people apply it and ultimately claims that getting society to act on that will overcome biological differences between these categories.

            Of course ultimately this in incompatible with science, but thats why terminology is a priority and social pressure is used over appeals to fact.

    • Sacha 6.2

      No acknowledgement of cultural context there – what table means to different people, and the social power dynamics about which meanings are most public at any time. What it looks like is trivial.

      • weka 6.2.1

        I think there's potential there to bring together both the materialist position and the social one. Neither is trivial, and having both would give us more than the sum of the parts.

        I don't see Russell talking about what the table looks like, but about how we perceive that there is a table at all. Thus establishing that humans have the capacity to observe reality on a shared basis despite some variation in how that observation is interpreted or reported.

        • Sacha

          There is a lot of philosophy over the last century or so about how we negotiate reality. Whole degrees in it.

        • Nic the NZer

          Good luck with that. A trivial part of what Russell is saying there is that, at the beginning of the universe there actually was a universe. Now once humans evolved we have ways of perceiving that universe (and internal mental models of that including social models), but the existance of that universe doesn't require anyone to perceive it.

          The next important area is that a mental model (e.g a piece of logic or maths or a factual statement) doesn't need to be scientifically true of reality. Now if reality is socially constructed then whatever claim is socially dominant is true but this is fundamentally incompatible with scientific validity, because people are quite capable of believing things which are not true, even in large social groups.

  6. Robert Guyton 7

    We know Paraparaumu is a hard one…

    • weka 7.1

      Excellent. That brought a smile to my face.

      And those shoes!

      The Southern version:




      Te Wai Pounamu

      Oraka 😉

  7. Jimmy 8

    It’s a good time to think about fixing your mortgage interest rates if you haven’t already as it seems like they have hit rock bottom and as everyone seems to be predicting, are about to start increasing. In fact I believe the ASB has just increased some of their rates.

    • tc 8.1

      Good advice IMO. An ANZ economist here was telling an Oz bus show they’re expecting inflation.

      The markets been banging on about reflation/inflation awhile now so at the slightest hint off they’ll go as banks have seen money leaving their low/no interest term deposits for much better returns pretty much anywhere else.

      Nick Tuffley of ASB has just pointed the finger at wages growth when asked.

    • Graeme 8.2

      Looks more like ASB tried to pre-empt today’s Reserve Bank announcement.

      Well interest rate is staying at 0.25% and cheap money funding for lending programme will continue. However bond buying will cease.

      Lets see how many other banks follow ASB’s lead, and how long it takes ASB to quietly backtrack.

      • pat 8.2.1

        I dont think there will be any backtrack near term….but they will likely have company soon…..and they have the second largest book.

      • lprent 8.2.2

        …and how long it takes ASB to quietly backtrack.

        Unlikely. The banks project risk (to themselves) out into the future. The analytical view of the significiant portion of the announcement was summarised as (from your link and my italics)..

        The Reserve Bank has left interest rates unchanged but taken a significant step towards future rate rises.

        It held the official cash rate at a record low 0.25 percent, and halted its bond buying programme, but will keep the cheap money bank lending programme.

        This is pure signalling a forward risk to the banks. Change is risk and has to be calculated into the cost of borrowing. That was why the the longer term rates (3 -5 years) rose last month across virtually all banks – the uncertainty into the future increased. Why the shorter term rates (<= 2 years) slightly decreased – the risk in the shorter term was low, so get customers form other banks while they could..

        Banks are likely to increase rates sooner rather than later, and as the ASB announcement showed, it’d be less of an increase in the short term loans, more in the longer term loans because of the risk..


        And just like that – this popped up in my mailbox. Link

        Economists now beating drums for August rate hike

        Rebecca Howard | Wed, 14 Jul 2021

        Today’s central bank statement has been widely viewed as hawkish with some economists now saying the first rate hike will come in August.

        • Graeme

          Yeah, rates can only go up. That's been increasingly obvious for the last year.

          My point was how long can ASB maintain their position in a very competitive market for those with the ability to borrow. Can't see them keeping that rate if other banks hold their rates as they were. Once the RB lifts their rate from 0.25% we may see banks raise rates but in the meantime the banks will be increasingly picky on who they lend too and fight tooth and nail for those eligible borrowers.

          • lprent

            The answer was that after the inflation figures went up, so did all of the major banks lending rates. Risk overruled – as I suspected.

      • Jimmy 8.2.3

        Unfortunately, I think the other banks will move their rates up as well shortly.

  8. McFlock 9

    Farmer’s will protest to show their anger at townies, raising hell in urban centres like Gore and Queenstown.

    Only apparently it will only be a drive-by bark in Dunedin because it’s “not safe to stop in Dunedin”. Probably scared of being outnumbered by hippie students smoking their “reefer” and demanding workers’ rights and clean drinking water.

    Gotta say, a name like “Groundswell NZ” just screams astroturfing lol. Getting a fair bit of plugging by the ODT, too. But I guess we’ll see.

    • Graeme 9.1

      Judging by the comments below the ODT article I don’t blame them for just doing a drive-by….

      Can’t see them getting much of a reception in Queenstown either, apart from pissing a lot of people off, the town centre’s seriously disrupted by road works from a council sewer upgrade that didn’t quite go to plan and street upgrades financed by COVID stimulus. Then most of the CBD business are taking it up the chook so that everyone else can swan about having little protests and otherwise getting on with life. That everything else in town, apart from tourism, is going gangbusters is beside the point.

      • weka 9.1.1

        More ute than tractor in Queenstown I’m guessing.

        • Graeme

          Most of the ute / pickup lot here are more American market led, well the ones I talk to anyway, and are reasonably exposed to electric transition. An awful lot of Teslas tooling around town. Chatter the last couple of days is whether the EV Rams will qualify for the feebate

          • weka

            Can't quite see what that is. Is that twin cab? 4WD?

            • Graeme

              Just a big American pick-up / ute. Most likely double cab and 4×4. What every builder in Queenstown aspires, especially EV. Good for the branding. Cybertruck even better.

              Toyota has fucked up not developing EV or hybrid utes, other manufacturers will have them in showrooms in the next year or so and they will be the thing to have. The only people buying a new Hilux in 2023 will be diehard farmers and the Taliban

    • Descendant Of Smith 9.2

      I told my mate I thought it was a poster for good coffee beans. He wasn't impressed.

  9. Fireblade 10

    Will Judith step up or is she just full of tūtae?

  10. Ad 11

    If we are going to do large scale mass vaccination events like this through August, could someone stand outside with a donation bucket and Labour Party membership forms?


    • Andre 11.1

      Oh please no.

      For the sake of getting as much vaccine coverage as we reasonably can, the last thing we need is anything pushing towards vaccine politicisation like has become such a problem elsewhere.

  11. Joe90 12

    Fafo in action.

    PARIS, July 13 (Reuters) – More than 900,000 people in France rushed to set up appointments to get vaccinated on Monday night after the president warned that people would see curbs imposed on them if they did not have a health pass that covered a vaccine or negative COVID test


  12. Andre 13

    When the travel bubble opened with Oz, it was clearly signalled it could pop at any moment without warning, and anyone travelling had to bear that risk on their own.

    So why the actual fuck is the government now giving away free MIQ to the poor darling snowflakes that were in NSW when the clearly signalled risk actually happened?


    • pat 13.1

      why indeed

    • Incognito 13.2

      Maybe it is that this Government cares about people and knows that sometimes well-intended decisions and choices can have negative unintended consequences even though some of the risks were relatively clear. However, it does raise the question of fairness and balance compared to other overseas stranded Kiwis. FWIW, personally, I’d rather not spend 14 days cooped up in an MIQ facility.

      • pat 13.2.1

        It also raises the question whether any other government proclamations/instructions will be taken seriously

        • Rosemary McDonald

          …government proclamations/instructions will be taken seriously

          Is there still the "PM at1pm" show? Used to be a watcher until I came to my senses.

          • pat

            not currently…but who knows whether it will be resurrected or not

            • Muttonbird

              Do you two idiots realise that the disruptive Covid outbreaks in Australia are due in large part to non-compliance to public orders?

              One thing NZ has done very well is compliance to public orders. It is for the benefit of us all. That we have done so well is because of clear communication.

              One of the biggest components of that clear communication is regular or semi-regular appearances by JA, Hipkins, Bloomfield, and/or other MoH officials.

              That communication and response is the envy of the world yet you run it down because you are offended in some way, or claim you took leave of your senses for a moment?

              Grow up.

              • pat

                Yes communication was clear

                "There will still be an element of 'flyer beware' for New Zealanders travelling to Australia, with the government saying it will not be coming to their rescue if they get trapped because of an outbreak."


                But you are of course correct, it was childish of me to expect a politician to mean what they say….shame on me.

                • Muttonbird

                  Well, I'm certainly not happy that taxpayer monies are going towards free MIQ for NSW holidaymakers.

                  But otherwise the government is not "coming to their rescue" as they have to pay for repatriation flights.

                  The 14 day quarantine is something imposed by us on them.

                  It would be good from this point for the government to state that in future should a bubble burst then all travellers wanting to re-enter NZ they will have to pay for MIQ.

                  Your comment at totally departed from the complaint that TT travellers were getting treatment over and above what was indicated.

                  • pat

                    Ah, youre displeased by my interaction with a fellow poster…thats a shame.

                    This government has one, and only one, area of competence and that is its response to covid (imperfect though it has been) and they appear determined to fuck that up as well with self inflicted wounds.

                    All National/Act have to do is give them more rope.

                    And then you'll something real to be pissed off about.

                    • Muttonbird

                      What? I'm displeased because you went full Simon Bridges on the idea "it's not fair the PM gets to do Covid updates".

        • Incognito

          I think it is crucial that the people know that their Government is providing a safety net and can be relied upon to help those who need it. At the core, it is a trust issue. This works both ways, as the $16 billion wage subsidy scheme has shown. The elimination strategy is another case in point.

          • pat

            It is indeed a trust issue….and they have demonstrated their word is not to be trusted

            • Drowsy M. Kram

              Still trust our Govt to try to do their best for all NZers, but the absolute outrage at their inconsistency is papable. Saying they're not going to help and then subsequently helping – "That pisses me off." [YouTube link – mind the language]

              • Rosemary McDonald

                Yeah, yeah. We got het up because of all the inconsistencies in the Government Response to Te Virus in the Early Days…but then Siouxsie explained it thus…

                ….we are having to build the plane at the same time as flying it.

                Trouble is though…folks are tired and folks are stressed and folks trusted both the NZ and Aus governments when they got all enthusiastic about our Bubble and the fantastic money making potential for both countries from Opening Up.

                So flights were booked and plans made and because of some leakage in the border protection everything went to shit. Folks got stuck and folks begged and folks cried and folks got told by Officials Tough Shit.

                Media broadcasts sad and sorry stories of stranded, tearful folks and suddenly flights are on and places in MIQ magically become available.

                Enough to make folks think that The Government Kindness is only activated by media intervention. Almost as if the Government learns more about what's going on around our border from the media than they do from Officials.

                I thought there was a Minister dedicated to managing the Covid…

      • Treetop 13.2.2

        The government does not care enough about some groups of people when it comes to their welfare. The Lake Alice survivors and people who witnessed 15 March 2019.

        Government has money to pay for MIQ for people who travelled for a holiday, (an exception for a seriously unwell family member is made) and not for those who were tortured or witnessed extreme terrorism.

        • Incognito

          With respect, but that’s a load of nonsense, which you seem to believe.

          • Treetop

            The emphasis is on not care enough.

            It is not nonsense. The government would need to provide money for lawyers in order to convince me that all which could be done for the above groups is being done. Without legal advice people may not have the energy or confidence to challenge a ACC decision.

            • Incognito

              You know that the inquiry into Lake Alice Hospital is part of a bigger wider and ongoing Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry, don’t you?

              We have already discussed previously here on TS the issue of ACC cover for mental health issues of witnesses of terrorist acts, please keep up. Did you know that some Lake Alice survivors do get ACC cover PTSD, et cetera? I bet you didn’t know this.

              How many TTTs who were caught when the travel bubble burst did go purely for a holiday? Please provide some hard numbers, not just speculation and assumption.

              Government cannot ignore or bypass the Law.

              • Treetop

                3rd attempt to reply so will be a short reply. Yes I am aware of all your questions.

                I will continue to raise my disgust with the governments handling of some ACC claimants. Mainly ECT not being covered when used as torture and witness to a terrorist attack and some historical issues with government departments.

                • Incognito

                  That’s fine with me, as long as you’re aware that you’re not always barking up the right tree. For one, ACC =//= Government.

                  You know why ECT is not covered by ACC, don’t you?

                  • Treetop

                    Not on the schedule 3 list for a mental injury and a physical injury needs to have occurred.

                    1982-1992 there was cover for mental shock (a category not the ECT) and no physical injury had to be proven.

                    The deemed date of injury is important as some claimants could be under the 1982-1992 ACC legislation.

                    The date of injury is when a person first gets treatment for the injury being covered. An accurate diagnosis is not required at the start of treatment either.

                    • Treetop

                      It could be argued that placement of the electrodes on the genitals is a schedule 3 cover.

                      Until there is access to full legal representation for claimants legal arguments cannot be made.

                      If moderator feels the first paragraph needs to be removed or a warning please do so.

                    • Incognito []

                      Thank you.

                      Indeed, demonstrable and consequential injury has to be present for a claim to proceed and possibly be approved under current legislation, which ACC is bound by. Government can change relevant legislation if necessary. A legal process (challenge) may indeed be required for change. It is a step-wise (slow, tedious, and expensive) process, but this is how the system works, by design and for good reason, and by that I don’t mean just ACC and the Accident Compensation Act 2001. At the same time, political pressure may be required. In short, make a case, present it, and then follow through, all the way.

    • Treetop 13.3

      Melbourne will be next to have a lockdown as a resurgence in community transmission. With a pre departure test required 72 hours before departure, this could delay a quick get away.

  13. Tabletennis 14

    Oh that sound familiar :

    High Profile Party Leaders Resign from Green Party; cite: “mob of dogmatic, self-righteous authoritarians” within ranks.

    In their heavily footnoted 13 page letter, the Central Illinois grandparents who have devoted 25 years to building the Green party while raising their family, cite a broad range of offences by various members of party leadership which they assert violate the founding values of the party, including:

    • suppression of Paula’s speech on the National Committee
    • suppression of speech by others on the National Committee and elsewhere
    • an unprecedented attack by the Steering Committee on a caucus of party activists
    • the suppression of real policy discussion on issues raised by gender ideology
    • a betrayal of core Green Party values, including: Grassroots Democracy, Feminism and Non-Violence
    • dogmatism and sectarianism within the party


    • greywarshark 14.1

      So this is Green Party USA Illinois state details? It would be good to state that. Most of us are NZrs here and have to keep an eye on our own politics, in case they change drastically or even disappear when we look away. It is interesting to know the Green Party is confused probably everywhere in the world. Just let us know what country you are talking about will you. As you have done below referring to Scottish. Luckily we know that Dublin is in Ireland, or Eire?

      • Tabletennis 14.1.1

        Greywarshark, you got that correct, Illinois is in the U$.

        I merely see a trend that trips up well respected GP leaders, who have given years to the green movement, over the trans religion.
        Today I read that the co-leader quit the green party of the UK over the trans conflict.

        Which made someone comment along the lines of: almost as if someone was financing TRAs to infiltrate ecology focused political parties.
        Being distracted totally from the effects of climate change on whole groups of people, their food security and can we still do something do about it…

  14. Tabletennis 15

    Andy Wightman, the Scottish Greens’ list member for Lothian region and a highly respected campaigner for tenants’ rights and land reform, stated in his resignation letter published on Friday afternoon:
    “Some of the language, approaches and postures of the party and its spokespeople have been provocative, alienating and confrontational for many women and men”.


  15. Tabletennis 16

    A fourth councillor has resigned from the Green Party. (Jan 2021)

    Dublin-based Peter Kavanagh has stepped away from the Greens, citing internal abuse over his criticism of the party leadership.


  16. WeTheBleeple 17

    Gosh, what a shambles it must be with a few resignations. We've never seen the like.

    It Must Be Taxing Taxing Taxes.

    Simon was told mate just get on your bike

    Then Todd had a go and then Todd took a hike

    Now Judith’s in charge and she paid for her likes

    Paid for her likes so she’s liked

    Adams said Madam now I’ve had enough

    And Kaye said OK well that’s my innings up

    And Falloon was soon in the news so screwed up

    But she paid for some likes so they’re liked

    There’s been English & Joyce, & who’d forget Ross

    Finlayson, Korako, Walker & Scott

    Guy, Barry, Dowie, Wagner & Carter

    Abandoned the ship before Jude got the charter

    No Tolley or Bennett nor Yang do we spy

    It’s bare in Nats lair as elections draw nigh

    But Jude, Paul & Gerry are building on dreams

    Cue tax cuts and roads from the strongest of teams.

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