Interesting interview by Kim Hill with Dr Chris Smith, consultant clinical virologist at Cambridge University, on the Pfizer claims of a soon to be ready, 90% effective covid-19 vaccine.
A few points:
The Pfizer announcement was light on data and it's hard to know what the reality is
90% efficacy = 10% failure
the vaccine wasn't tested on people under 18, and probably wasn't tested on elderly people who are at particular risk of covid
if the vaccine is rushed and ends up going wrong (doesn't work well, has a too high side effect or damage rate) it will cause long term problems with covid vaccines and vaccines generally
many people who are normally ok with vaccines are concerned about a covid one and reluctant about it due to it being rushed (25% of people surveyed in the UK)
It's the first messenger RNA vaccine (this wasn't discussed but I'm wondering how they assess safety and side effects in a short time frame).
Re the 90% rate, and the first planned roll out in the UK of vaccinating 30% of the population, the rationale is that you vaccinate vulnerable people and their caregivers first. I can see how this would work in the UK which has widespread community transmission. I'm less clear about NZ, mostly because I haven't seen vaccination in the context of a plan around opening the borders. Vaccinating the frontline workers (border control, medical people) makes sense. Is anyone talking about beyond that?
It occurs to me that there needs to be a vaccine against the hubris of the self-centred, know-all type who talks their way into a position such as a President, Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Chancellor, CEO etc. It would act against hubris with a steady-on there, let's look at the facts and likely outcomes, and discuss them widely with a summary of pros and cons that satisfy everyone concerned that the point they wish to make is covered in the content.
An anti-hubris vaccine is what should be the next 'great work' from the scientists. And it could be spread by droplets, so if you can get near enough and aerosol the air, it will reach the pushy, one-eyed, slightly mad people who seem to hypnotise their way into people's brains, probably from the projection or transference that people perceive.
Projection and transference are very similar. They both involve you attributing emotions or feelings to a person who doesn't actually have them. … Projection occurs when you attribute a behavior or feeling you have about a person onto them. Then, you may begin to see “evidence” of those feelings projected back at you. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/transference
The double standard is what gets me. Low cost, low risk interventions that we knew about back in March like Vitamin D get pooh pooh'ed because they haven't been through large gold standard double blind, peer reviewed published studies … yet somehow a vaccine leaps to the front of the queue without having to leap over the same hurdles.
The cautions you list are all quite reasonable, yet the msm is largely silent on them.
Between the blatant political biases, the incessant click bait and the selective spin put on everything … it's reached the point where reading the news has become a masochistic act of psychological self abuse.
And the financial heft and influence of the pharmaceutical companies can't be ignored .Never let a simple , cheap, achievable solution come between big pharma and its profits
Yes. The capture of the science by both political and business interests is deplorable. A similar story to climate science only this time the actors are wearing different hats.
If it works it will be the anti-inflammatory effect (as the cheap steroid gives – but not so well known, that same cheap steroid has been used in hospitals for lung/breathing difficulty amongst new borns for decades).
A 2020 public wants a click bait solution. an instant coffee vaccine. Yesterday.
No knowledge of what it takes, no understanding of the myriad, multi-layersed infinite variables and research involved.
The low status of scientists has been permanent, the disparagement and scorning of their work in the early stage of coronavirus very public. Every Tom Dick and Harry even if they'd done no science in high school or past their second year there, suddenly knew more about something experts had spent their lives immersed in
Now though we want them to magically click their fingers and save us.
I say, "Start by saving your fucking selves (and others) by doing some cheap, easy basic things. It ain't virological and epidemiological science."
I think this is a good article about the vaccine and quotes one of our leading experts in the field. It explains why 90% effectiveness is high and how that works.
I think there is a danger of fuelling anti vaccination sentiment and this isn't helpful at the moment
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies. This is how medical science works and I am grateful for it.
Of course if leaders of the world had used the behavioural strategies available to control an infection like Covid 19 and the populace had of adopted these strategies, then the pandemic would be on the wane. Leaders of the world are clearly very imperfect and have ignored the science. The general public are also imperfect, e.g people drinking at bars on Ponsonby Road last night without social distancing when there is currently Covid in the community. FFS. I cannot understand why people would do this, but then that is just me.
How about we all start feeling grateful there is a vaccine? Small Pox, measles etc have either been eradicated or controlled by vaccines. And do all the right things to fight the virus before it is rolled out. The use of the Covid tracer app is frankly woeful……
What is the answer to 'frankly woeful' use of the Covid tracer app? Is that use and that App better than nothing – and it is just one small thing in our approaches?
There has already been discussion about how the app doesn't work on a number of devices we already have. Therefore the thinking goes, we should buy new devices. That costs money and the people that are doing work of great value against Covid are not usually those with good incomes and resources. Solution – develop a new multi-platform? app or add-on that will work in present cellphones etc. Or make new cellphones available free to those who need them.
It seems that we are running out of steam for coping with outcomes. Once something is designed, we have done our bit says government and their facilitators for tech. If it doesn't work it's SEP.
And gummint remember, we are basically a poor country, so don't look at the real estate smiles for a measure, look at the large number of no-estate citizens. We talk about 'punching above our weight?', actually it means the bodies of NZ sinking slowly and the hands apparently punching are actually a gesture of a cry for help.
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies.
Which is well and good, but it's not like Vitamin D is a novel and unknown substance. It's well understood, has known benefits, and cases of toxic overdose are extremely rare. Countries like Sweden have already been adding it to some foods, albeit at relatively low levels, for many years now. They plan on on increasing it now.
The biggest problem, I'd suggest, is that it's so very cheap.
Those taking aspirin did well when infected with the coronavirus. Similar to those who had good levels of Vitamin D – presumably in mitigating problems caused by the illness – no clots etc.
Vitamin D – "very cheap", easy to get, widely touted in the msm as a potential "game changer" in the fight against COVID-19 (even the esteemed Dr Fauci takes it), etc., etc.
Over the last month the global number of active cases of COVID-19 has increased from 8.5 million to 15 million. IMHO the "biggest problem" is that civilisation is in the grip of a rapidly spreading pandemic. As long as taking vit. D supplements (in the safe range) doesn't compromise other common sense measures (physical distancing, hygiene, border controls, track and trace) to limit COVID spread, then what's not to like? Just don't forget about zinc (also in safe quantities):
Folic acid (a vitamin B) and fluoride are cheap too and have known health benefits with good safety profiles. There’s more to it than just simple economic arguments, there always is.
I know what happened with thalidomide and how people had to fight the drug company. Not just the drug company but the Ministry of Health. I have a lot of time for your views on health agencies and the delivery of services.
I agree unethical to give the vaccine to pregnant women. There may even be a window period prior to conceiving which is unsafe.
That was in 1961/62. It was developed for morning sickness. Given that birth defects were not immediately obvious it is understandable that there was a lag. I’d think that most civil servants working in MoH (DoH, as it was known then) at the time have moved on.
The philosophy of science/medicine of the time was the problem though, not the lack of ability to see the future, and I still see science is god* people arguing that the damage that gets done is the price we pay for the good science brings.
*science as the one true way and better than all other ways of knowing sometimes to the exclusion of other ways of knowing.
Sure, it was a disaster but to somehow connect that example to a Covid-19 vaccine and MoH in present time seems plain fear mongering, IMO. There are risks, always will be, and these need to be managed properly. If we’re saying that we cannot trust the makers of that or any other Covid-19 vaccine, that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us, then we might as well stay in bed and wait for the end of time to come and get (take?) us. I struggle with outbursts of hyper-emotional theatrics and histrionics and self-reinforcing loops of fear, distrust, and paranoia. Let’s talk these things through calmly, kindly, and respectfully.
that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us,
You might want to Google "Ministry of Health Disability Support Services neglect and abuse.."
There's plenty of reading, and yes, some of it is "emotional" because that's how people get when a government organisation charged with providing care and support to a particular group of citizens fails. Time and fucking time again.
And if you think some of us are locked into this cycle of paranoia and distrust…you ought to have been sitting in various legal venues over the past two decades and listened how our beloved Crown Law argued the case against disabled New Zealanders and their families. This might give you some idea.
But to have a Crown Lawyer eyeball you in court and spew their bile…a whole new and novel experience. I wouldn't piss on any of them if they were on fire.
This is the Ministry of Health…charged with providing tax payer funded health and disability services and they treat citizens like so much worthless shit….
…and Crown Law…charged with ensuring New Zealand Laws are upheld…not treating innocent citizens as if we're guilty.
Fucking oath I wouldn't trust them.
Oh, and some of us have tried 'calm, kind and respectful' and ended up being treated like we have done wrong. That we had lied and cheated. That we would abuse and neglect. When it was the Ministry's own contracted providers doing the abusing and neglecting. And the Ministry lied and denied.
And yes Incognito I have crates full of evidence. I have evidence that senior bureaucrats at the MOH:DSS are so stunningly ignorant of the realities of the care required for some disabled people with the very highest needs that one doesn't know whether to guffaw at their outright idiocy or weep that they are in charge of peoples lives. So we do both.
And do I have to remind you again of the debacle that was the mask instructions for those requiring home based care? They fucking dug their toes in didn't they? Nevermind the precautionary principle, nevermind that Uncle Ashley knew so little of what was required for personal cares that he was waffling on about 'only if you're closer that 1 metre to the client'. What and ignorant fool…but I guess he was being advised by those ignorant numpties in DSS.
I have seen nothing over the past 10 months that raises my trust level in our Government and especially not for the MOH.
Oh and the 'risks'…none for Pfizer, they'll have immunity from any responsibility. They can't lose.
It's not that the MoH is going to feed us a drug as bad as thalidomide. It's that the worldview is still similar. We're better, because we learned from thalidomide, but there is also reason to be cautious. It's a potent mix, a pandemic narrowly averted in NZ but still raging elsewhere, the push to save the economy, a health system that has been rationalised economically for decades, and a MoH with substantial cultural problems.
As for trusting the MoH, there are many people that good reason not to, unfortunately. Maybe we should amplify their voice a bit. It's not a black and white thing, criticising the MoH doesn't mean they're useless or can't be trusted in any capacity. But denial of the risks and problems doesn't help either.
I was looking at the assistance given then and now to the affected children, now adults. As well support to the mothers. This would be ongoing for both.
There were lots of legal wrangles, as you can imagine, and a few settlements with companies. What was the role of MoH in all that and what assistance did it give?
MoH attitude was send your child to an institution and have another baby to fill the void. Fight for disability assistance as well in your adult years.
I do not do scare mongering. I try to deal with the facts. History cannot be allowed to repeat itself with any medication/vaccine. I am not an anti vaxer, never have been and probably never will be.
When it came to legal wrangles any fool could see it was the thalidomide. It took years to settle a case and it would have been stressful to deal with the drug company which had the resources to squash you.
4 December 1961 thalidomide was recalled in NZ. It took the Department of Health until July 27 1962 to issue an official directive to destroy the remaining stocks of the drug.
A bit more on that 90% efficacy/10% failure: it seems they were only looking for symptomatic people, and weren't testing for asympotmatic-but-infectious people. So depending on how "efficacy" is defined. That also has implications for what % of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
Another factor is it isn't clear how failed the failures were. The data set probably isn't big enough for the answer yet, but if the vaccine didn't completely prevent disease, but still reduced the likelihood of a mild infection progressing to severe disease or death, that's still a very worthwhile outcome, even if it falls short of being included in the the "efficacy" definition.
Everything I've seen suggests there isn't yet a clear plan on which groups are priorities for early vaccinations. Just vague generalities about front-line staff (most likely to be exposed), and vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled, elderly, those with illness that put them at extra risk, elderly etc. I haven't yet seen anything about when it might get extended to those likely to be in contact with large numbers of people, ie teachers, bus drivers, hospitality staff etc.
And after the outrageous way the MOH decided disabled people and their home based carers did not need PPE, especially masks, unless symptomatic my guess is that the disabled might be a little cautious also. I still reckon the Ministry was hoping that Te Virus would carry off more of this vulnerable group.
UK plan seems to be 30% vax rate, focused on the vulnerable.
The issue in NZ is the borders. Yes, vaccinating isolation hotel staff, medical staff and border control people makes sense, but talking about herd immunity in NZ doesn't make sense unless we also talk about how/when the borders would open. I assume we're not having that conversation yet because we don't know how effective any vaccine will be, nor how long it confers immunity. The rush from my pov is for countries who have out of control community transmission, and no good way to contain that now (although I assume there is a useful strategy in doing lockdowns, distancing, masks etc *and vaccinating).
My problem there is that because it will be rushed, there are likely to be people who have adverse reactions, and they will be seen as collateral damage in large part for the economu. But it remains to be seen if they will be taken seriously, how adverse reactions will be reported and monitored, and whether those people will get support. Lots of shitty anti/pro vax wars stuff is really going to bite us now.
Am also mindful that NZ is bad at supporting chronically ill people, and I haven't seen anything to suggest we will be better on this with long haul covid. It's not just about the death rate and the economy.
Maths dude interviewed by Hill this morning made some good points about vaccine hesitant people, we shouldn't treat them as stupid or ostracise them, but instead talk through the issues people are concerned about for themselves and their kids. This seems paramount now if we don't want a bigger anti-vax backlash.
Yeah all the points are true. It's a glimmer of hope, not a guarantee.
The things that separate the pfizer thing from any other magic bullet so far is that at least a decent-sized trial is under way and close enough to deliver intial results, and also pfizer is an established industry actor – it's not a startup looking for money, promising the earth, and with one magic black box they promise will be amazeballs when it finally works.
It could all go tits up on the cusp of production. But at least it's progress.
Point 2 give me a minor quibble, though. If the success metric is immunity, 90% is amazeballs. Some figure for herd immunity people were throwing around a while back was 60%. So even if 35% don't get it, that's a population immunity rate of 67% when we only need 60% to stop clusters emerging (assuming a random distribution of vaccine uptake). So 90% effective is probably good enough.
Contrast with measles(?) vaccine which I seem to recall needs in the range of 100% uptake to stop community spread outright.
90% across most of the population once the vaccine is effective and we know how it works in human populations, would be amazing. I'm not sure how close we are to that. I suspect 2021 reality will be more uneven, less certain. I also think there is a case for letting other countries get enough supplies to do whole populations before places like NZ (esp countries that are struggling to contain covid because of resource issues).
Treetop – Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
I would say probably. There would be expectations of marriage, and to a chosen person. I have family who seem to be in a sect; my young relative did very well at school developing a skill in draughtsmanship, but got married to a young man from the group when she was about 17. And babies came soon. Life as an adult had just begun, but maturing, developing her own skills, abilities as a male would, was not to be encouraged. And it would have probably taken her out of the group which grows, tight-knit. There are quite a few groups, patriarchal, like this around. They live apparently normal lives, but constrained and controlled. If they home-school then the children are isolated and may be deprived of contact with other children outside the chosen circle, and are like hens being fed, clucking around, and laying eggs, all for the greater good.
They have Leaders imposed on them apparently. And are involved with other similar groups in other countries. The Sydney Morning Herald notes that the early group was started by an Australian. (This reminds me of Jones from USA who took his group out of his country to South America; which ended unhappily in violence and murder).
Those who leave a sect need an organisation to go to, to help with a new start in life due to having lived in an abusive and controlled invironment. The loss of family would be hard to deal with.
There is not much difference between a refugee and a person escaping an intolerable situation when it comes to assistance required to live a meaningful life or to escape persecution.
Demographics are not destiny, says David Shor. And if Democrats want their party to succeed nationally, they’ll have to face that fact and change.
For years, the Democratic Party has operated under one immutable assumption: Long-term demographic trends would give the party something like a permanent majority as the country as a whole grows less white and more urban. President Donald Trump’s reliance on the politics of racial resentment would only quicken the process, solidifying support for Democrats among people of color.
Then came November 3, 2020. And all those assumptions now seem like total nonsense.
Long-ish interview with Democratic polling & data expert David Shor.
Well one thing you can be sure of is that he Democratic establishment will learn nothing from almost losing to Trump, as in 2016 they will blame the voters and progressives for their failures.
Democratic leaders play a ridiculous blame game with progressives
He would be more believable if he spent time showing the disenfranchisement effect of Republicans utterly screwing district boundaries to favour white people against all categories of non-white for decades.
Also he would have done better if he accepted where demographic shifts really helped Democrats over time.
California used to be regularly Republican – but their last win there was under Reagan. A Democrat president since Carter would simply be ruled out if that hadn't followed the demographic trend to support Democrats.
They also certainly counted in Georgia this year (which most MSM broadcasters have called this morning) and as this commentary notes, demographic change in Georgia and other sunbelt states was critical there.
Now, there may well be lazy Dem-leaning commentators who proposed the inevitability of change.
But who would have thought that Bill Clinton would take out those solid mid-western states like Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri – with growing Black voter bases? Democrats would, of course. That's 1992 and 1996.
Then of course there's Obama, who would compare his first election to Shor's analysis and just laugh.
A Democratic president needs luck, and the right candidate, and you also need the right demographic headwinds.
Republicans are complaining that something’s not quite right with the presidential election, but the very same ballots voters used to elect Joe Biden helped the GOP run up their numbers, not just in Congress but in a whole bunch of state legislature races. Democrats had hoped to take control of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas—and it didn’t happen. On Wednesday’s episode of What Next, I spoke with Ari Berman, a senior reporter at Mother Jones, about what’s happening in these states and how it may cement Republican power across the country for the next decade. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Mary Harris: We’ve talked a lot about down-ballot races and the Senate and the House on this show, but I’ve heard a lot less conversation about state legislatures. Do you think that’s a miss?
Ari Berman: I do think it’s a miss. We are heading into another redistricting cycle in 2021, and it’s the state legislatures that were elected in 2020 that are going to draw those maps for the next decade and determine which way all these pivotal swing states go. I think one of the biggest consequences of the 2020 election, which has not gotten much attention, is what happened in all of these different state legislative races.
Can you give me the 101 version of why we need to be paying attention?
Statehouses are important in a lot of different ways. They control voting laws. They control health care. They control environmental laws. But if you’re talking just about political power, state legislatures, with a few exceptions, are the ones that draw districts both for themselves and also for the House of Representatives. So the districts that these state legislatures are going to draw in 2021—which is when the next redistricting cycle happens—are going to determine who’s in control of these legislatures for the next decade. It’s also going to determine what the House of Representatives looks like for the next decade. State legislatures don’t get a whole lot of attention, but when it comes to how political power is distributed in America, they are incredibly, incredibly important.
Some time ago there was a post to The Standard about a radio report saying that a survey had indicated that there was a minority of New Zealanders that supported Trump – mostly also National supporters – does anyone recall when that was?
The radio report will have been about the study at this link. A personal experience of 'debating' with a relative and listening to Trumpeters losing their minds on talkback before and since the US election has been equally revealing:
Of the 55,147 who answered the question in the mid-2020 survey, 6,833 said they hoped Trump would win. So, who are these Kiwi Trumpers? And what do they really think?
Even demographic spread …Kiwi men are more than twice as likely to support Trump than women — a much wider gender gap than was found in the US after the 2016 election.
Kiwi Trumpers are distributed evenly across lower and middle income brackets, and support declines only slightly in the upper income brackets.
Perhaps surprisingly, 15.6% of Pasifika respondents and 20% of those who ticked the “gender-diverse” box hoped Trump would win — above the overall 11% result….
Only 20% of National supporters overall said they hoped Trump would win. But this sub-group of National supporters made up 56% of the entire cohort of Kiwi Trumpers. A further 23% of Kiwi Trumpers supported ACT. So, the National Party is the preferred party of the Kiwi Trumper.
Nov.6/20 by Grant Duncan Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University
I think I can fairly say I have had a longtime very low opinion of D. Jobless Drumpf's cognitive processes. But even I'm having trouble with the idea this is actually from him. To the point that I've tried to find evidence that this is a spoof. But Daniel Dale appears to be a genuine reporter for CNN, heavily involved in fact-checking, and it’s not April 1, so …
In this tweet, the president argues that the election was the most secure election ever except for the fact that it was rigged. pic.twitter.com/SfqavDUEFA
There needs to be more discussion about politics and society and how we go about ordering and disordering what we have. I think we should have regular regional Ted Talks from people who have a range of views and can present a reasoned case.
Not a religious pulpit as such, but people aware of how neo-lib is trying to traduce religion and our natural virtuous instincts. I refuse to be merely an object in a business culture experiment, being manipulated to do something, a pigeon activated to peck for whatever by remote control.
Our information sources are sadly lacking and more frequently have a bias because of the commenter being a paid mouthpiece from some firm, or a straight PR providing focussed promotion and advertising. How are we to learn, comprehend and place into a framework of understanding about what is happening in our fast-moving society? Parents, school, broadcast media – all with bias and tending to dislike learning from reading, thought, questioning and discussion, even debates are competitive, but what if there is no straight-out or easy answer, just equivocal solutions each tailored for the special situations occurring! Instead the preference is for physicality – sports, running, biking, walking is more spoken about than encouraged.
Information, news; the old idea of the Fourth Estate here – I wonder if it is still being fed to trainee journalists?
The term Fourth Estate or fourth power refers to the press and news media both in explicit capacity of advocacy and implicit ability to frame political issues. Though it is not formally recognized as a part of a political system, it wields significant indirect social influence. Fourth Estate – Wikipedia
The press is called the fourth estate in the United States usually because they observe the political process. They do this to make sure the participants do not exploit the democratic system. They play a crucial role in the outcome of political issues and candidates. Fourth Estate – Open School of Journalism
Seymour’s calling out of Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s recent stimulatory actions as “Muldoonist” and “unorthodox” (while slagging Orr himself as a “liability”) should be treated as a tantrum best handled by putting Seymour back in his cot again, until he cries himself to sleep.
I heard Seymour and realised in a RNZ interview we wouldn't hear his solutions. The format suits him, he can spray and walk away.
No doubt he will write a book about how he would start form scratch and reorganise things so that Adrian Orr is not in the situation where he has to make the decisions he has made.
He may have done in on his pre-election rounds. Or not. No votes in that.
Thread: there's been interesting discussion in the Scottish Parliament this afternoon about the use of Unexplained Wealth Orders to investigate Donald Trump's deals to acquire his Scottish properties and ascertain the sources of the financing 1/
How soon is it too soon to test for Covid and how late is it too late to test for Covid?
Today a weak positive case, a neighbour at the Vincent Street Apartments. They were previously tested. It is looking like a second test a week apart might be the way to go with some close contacts and to isolate until after the second test result is known.
I have given it a thought if the pipes between the Vincent Street Apartments and the Millennium Hotel are shared by connection and back flow could be an issue.
What is it we would really like the government to do when it has got all the important things accomplished?
I would like fireworks to be available only for licensed users at public functions. NO private sales. Then they wouldn't be popping up all through the year, November 5th bangs on and on upsetting and likely to cause fires and eye damage when aimed wrongly. Health and safety could prove their worth by forcing intelligent laws on this but….
And I hate the sirens we have. So strident, so high and loud, the dogs on the hill howl and I feel like it too. Here are some ideas for better from the inimitable Bill Bailey (I can't remember what that means but think, good).
Did I hear correctly on NatRad that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored and transported at MINUS 80 ( F,or C? ) . Whichever it pretty much buggers it as a cure for most of the world.
It's below minus 70C. Dry ice is minus 78C, so containers surrounded by dry ice will do the job. Pfizer has developed a transport container that will keep it cold enough for 10 days, or up to 25 days if the dry ice is replenished. So it's a challenge to be sure, but not insurmountable.
The ebola vaccine had similar requirements, and they managed to get it out into the field. Although in the end, the vaccine was late to the party and public health measures had already controlled the outbreak.
There is a long-shot legal theory, floated by Republicans before the election, that Republican-friendly legislatures in places such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could ignore the popular vote in their states and appoint their own electors. Federal law allows legislatures to do this if states have “failed to make a choice” by the day the electoral college meets. But there is no evidence of systemic fraud of wrongdoing in any state and Biden’s commanding margins in these places make it clear that the states have in fact made a choice.
“If the country continues to follow the rule of law, I see no plausible constitutional path forward for Trump to remain as president barring new evidence of some massive failure of the election system in multiple states,” Richard Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, who specializes in elections, wrote in an email. “It would be a naked, antidemocratic power grab to try to use state legislatures to get around the voters’ choice and I don’t expect it to happen.”
For lawmakers in a single state to choose to override the clear will of its voters this way would be extraordinary and probably cause a huge outcry. For Trump to win the electoral college, several states would have to take this extraordinary step, a move that would cause extreme backlash and a real crisis of democracy throughout the country.
The 5.4 million difference in the popular vote was largely from California
Joe Biden (D) 10,757,884 63.82%
Donald J. Trump (R) 5,736,893 34.03%
The winning Electoral College vote was largely decided in five major Democrat controlled cities: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), Milwaukee (Wisconsin), Detroit (Michigan) and Atlanta ( Georgia).
The Elections have been dangerously close elsewhere which seems to have emboldened the losing side!
Sorry Maurice, but your overview of the election results neglects the margins by which Trump beat Biden in the 25 states that he did win, and neglects the size of the vote in each state where Biden flipped the state.
Wisconsin 20,500+
Michigan 125,000+
Pennsylvania 75,000+
Arizona 10,500+
Georgia 14,000+
(as at 8.45 am NZDST)
Most political commentators suggest that the size of these margins are well outside the margin which would be susceptible to being overturned on recount, or by the odd instance of voter fraud.
Biden beat Trump by over 900,000 votes in New York state which is heavily Republican outside of the City. The fact that a city's population might influence the outcome of a state's voting preference, does not mean that the popular vote has no relevance.
New York State is indeed interesting with over 2 million votes yet to be counted.
Biden votes are largely concentrated in the city counties – about 14 of them whereas Trump votes are spread out over the less populous counties – about 48 of them
With about 84% of the expected vote counted the results as at 5.11 pm ET are displayed here:
The expression a death by a thousand cuts, just leave him to it. Have a plan for needing to detain him when necessary where national security is at stake.
What to do with the president would be being discussed. At some point intervention may be required for his own welfare.
Is it possible that the present incumbent of the White House will appear at Biden's presidential inauguration on Jan 20 2021, claiming it as his own for a second term? After all, given the recent post US election insane ramblings and utterings from Trump, I doubt anything he says or does from now on will be surprising!
There is a culture of denial and false hope in the Presidents inner circle. This cannot continue. It is one thing to want a recount and another to not admit that Biden won.
Seems like everyones happy 'bout Biden winning, I wonder if Julian Assange is, we will see what sort of a humanist Biden turns out to be, nothing short of dropping the case against Julian will tell a tale, but dont hold your breath.
Possibly when it comes to treating Assange right and giving him release plus a rap over the knuckles, it'll be like the old song 'I'm just biding my ti.ime, That's the kind of guy I am."
A long thread with something for everyone: Russians, Dan Bongino, Steve Bannon, The Epoch Times, Candace Owens, Cassandra Fairbanks, the husband of Paul senior's granddaughter with political connections to both Pauls and Mitch McConnell, the hospitality coordinator at a tRump hotel steakhouse at a Trump hotel, Giuliani’s former law firm and lots more.
So let’s talk about Parler. Where did it come from? Founder John Matze met his now wife, Alina Mukhutdinova, in May 15, 2016 in Las Vegas. Alina is from Kazan, Russia. She was on a two week road trip “vacation” across the USA with a friend.
Shoutout to Deborah Russell and team for actually holding a Thankyou Volunteers Event today to the people on the ground who actually worked for weeks on the election in New Lynn.
Don't usually hear of MPs taking the time to actually thank us drones.
‘Thank-you' events have been around for decades. They usually took the form of a BBQ put on by the candidate and more often than not took place at their home.
After President Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and the tea party (which pushed to slash federal spending) emerged, Mr. Koch threw his weight behind the new movement and its candidates. “We did not create the tea party. We shared their concern about unsustainable government spending, and we supported some tea-party groups on that issue,” Mr. Koch wrote in an email. “But it seems to me the tea party was largely unsuccessful long-term, given that we’re coming off a Republican administration with the largest government spending in history.”
Mr. Koch said he has since come to regret his partisanship, which he says badly deepened divisions. “Boy, did we screw up!” he writes in his new book. “What a mess!”
Mr. Koch is now trying to work together with Democrats and liberals on issues such as immigration, criminal-justice reform and limiting U.S. intervention abroad, where he thinks common ground can be found. He has partnered with organizations including the LeBron James Family Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union and even a handful of Democratic state legislative campaigns. In 2019, he renamed the Koch network of about 700 donors as Stand Together.
We seem to be cornering Ardern and Robertson. Y'know about the people and reality. James Shaw, of all people, is trying out his talking voice re housing.
Us Left interested.
Why I voted for Andrew Little. Their magic talk for nothing.
You have to imagine how little i care for their moth shadows.
There are times when tikanga needs to be broken for tikanga to survive.I recently gave a presentation on Māori economic history based on my Not in Narrow Seas. Its most important message was that Māori proved to be a very adaptable people continually evolving as new opportunities arose. The European ...
Some of you may remember our blog post "A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook" in which we detailed our misgivings about and decision to stick with Facebook for the time being. So these latest developments - reposted from the Cranky Uncle homepage - might come as a bit of surprise! ...
Image credit:Quick Data Lessons: Data Dredging Oh dear – another scientific paper claiming evidence of toxic effects from fluoridation. But a critical look at the paper shows evidence of p-hacking, data dredging and motivated reasoning to derive their conclusions. And it was published in a journal shown to be ...
We've had a housing crisis for the past decade, and successive governments have done nothing to solve it. Why not? Bernard Hickey gets it right when he says its all about protecting the rich: The Government is reluctant to push down house prices fearing they'll loses the support of ...
There’s more of the Obama legacy here and Deporter in Chief: Obama chucks out 2,000,000 and Can Trump really deport more people than Obama? and Obama, gay rights and the killing drones ...
My Department Right Or Wrong: Far from “politicians involving themselves in some Corrections matters” being a bad thing, their involvement – along with that of the Ombudsman – constitutes a necessary check upon the unreasonable and unlawful exercise of authority over prison inmates by prison staff. A Corrections Minister who ...
New Zealand is supposed to have a progressive tax system, which taxes people according to their ability to pay. But it turns out that the rich are cheating: The wealthiest New Zealanders pay just 12 per cent of their total income in tax on average, according to research from ...
Ground truths on warming When we think about rapid climate change of the kind we've accidentally unleashed and the warming of Earth systems inherent in the process, we tend to focus on phenomena in order of their immediate tangibility, their drama. Sea ice loss in the Arctic, atmospheric and ocean ...
by Daphna Whitmore The Department of Corrections has called in the police over a pamphlet that supports protests at Waikeria Prison, saying the material might incite another riot. The group People Against Prisons Aotearoa denies it advocates for riots and has said it “encourages persistent, peaceful protest action such as striking from ...
One theme in the literature dedicated to democratic theory is the notion of a “tyranny of the minority.” This is where the desire to protect the interests of and give voice to electoral minorities leads to a tail wagging the dog syndrome whereby minorities wind up having disproportionate influence in ...
I've just lodged my fourth complaint to the Ombudsman for deemed refusal of an OIA request by police this year. That brings their total to four for four - every request I have sent them has not been answered within the legal timeframe, even when they extend it to give ...
Will the health reforms proposed for the Labour Government make the system better or worse? Health commentator Ian Powell (formerly the Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists) gives his analysis of what change is most necessary, and what should be avoided. The review of the Health ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections An off-course polar vortex meandered toward the Mexican border, bringing with it frigid Arctic air rarely seen as far south as Texas. Frozen equipment rendered power generation systems in the state inoperable, forcing grid operators to begin rolling blackouts to customers then left to fend ...
Just as National once produced a “rock star economy” that Grant Robertson rejected as being only for the rich, the Labour Government has produced an economic “bounce back” that leaves out the poor. Branko Marcetic argues for a rise in benefit levels to give the poor a real bounce back. ...
Virginia has voted to abolish the death penalty: State lawmakers gave final approval on Monday to a bill that will end capital punishment in Virginia, a dramatic turnaround for a state that has executed more people than any other. The legislation repealing the death penalty now heads to the ...
Yesterday a New Zealand Judge issued a formal finding that the Department of Corrections had treated prisoners in a cruel, degrading and inhumane manner, illegally detaining them, using excessive force, denying them basic necessities unless they performed degrading rituals of submission first. Some of the conduct appears to be criminal: ...
The Herald reports that there is a "storm brewing for the Climate Change Commission". The "problem"? Polluters are unhappy with its economic projections saying that action will not be as costly as they have previously claimed: Last week a coalition of over a dozen New Zealand business and industry ...
You're Move: What would a genuinely powerful Maori Caucus do? What policies would it insist upon? More to the point, since the single most important question in politics is always “Or you’ll what?”, does the Maori Caucus possess the wherewithal to enforce its demands?THAT LABOUR’S MAORI CAUCUS is potentially powerful ...
This post is a mix of a few recent reports on trends, recent discoveries or developments. Topics covered are the future of work, the geopolitical shift from oil to semiconductors, transition to low carbon futures, disappearing Artic sea ice, and AI in health care. Yesterday’s Gone A Canadian report ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob Henson One of the hottest years in U.S. history, 2020 was besieged by a record number of billion-dollar disasters, led by two of the most dangerous phenomena with links to climate change: wildfires and hurricanes. In its initial U.S. climate summary for 2020, ...
Just because something is bad, doesn’t mean it’s easy to criminalise. Graham Adams argues that the proposed ban on gay conversion therapy is messier than many realise, and he delves into some of the difficulties facing the Government in their promise to legislate. A highly successful petition has inadvertently ...
Story of the Week... Editorial of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... ‘Absolutely ridiculous’: top scientist slams UK government over coalmineExclusive:Prof Sir Robert Watson says backing of ...
Over the weekend we learned that Turkey plans to deport a New Zealand woman and her children who had fled Syria after previously joing the Islamic State. Which means that Andrew Little's tyrannical Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Act 2019 - rammed through under all-stages urgency on the basis of an ...
While it has made a lot of noise about inequality, Labour has resolutely avoided reversing the 1990 benefit cuts and improving living standards for the poorest in our society. Meanwhile, 70% of kiwis think they should: A survey has found seven out of 10 New Zealanders believe the government ...
Anti-Philosopher President? Emmanuel Macron and his party’s reaction to the terrorist atrocities committed on French soil targets the very same philosophical movements excited and emboldened by New Zealand’s own terrifying tragedy.IT IS NOT the sort of thought experiment New Zealanders are encouraged to conduct in these culturally sensitive times. Even ...
If Jacinda Ardern or ay of her Auckland-based cabinet ministers stepped outside this weekend, they would have realised that this afternoon’s cabinet decision on whether to move Auckland back to Level 1 has already been made. The residents of our biggest city have voted with their feet.While some places where ...
According to epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker, the decision to end the second Auckland lockdown after just three days was a ‘calculated risk’. The possibility of undetected community transmission cannot be ruled out. In the United States, modelling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found that the ...
As I rose for the first time to speak from the Despatch Box in the House of Commons, I had the comfort of seeing that the Despatch Box had on it the inscription “A Gift from the People of New Zealand”. But I was also a little daunted, like so ...
This article is by Laura Biggs, from the Marxist-Feminist blog On the Woman Question. The term ‘sex work’ has come to replace the word ‘prostitution’ in contemporary discussions on the subject. This is not accidental. The phrase ‘sex work’ has been adopted by liberal feminists and powerful lobbyists in a ...
Sometimes it’s smaller, intensive studies that shed light on issues. Just reported results of daily sampling of COVID-19 patients indicate patients with the B.1.1.7 variant first observed in Kent, UK may have a longer infection compared to patients infected with non-B.1.1.7 variants. This is the variant seen in NZ’s most ...
Redline has just passed one million views – as I start writing this we have reached 1,000,015 views. It took us nearly seven years to reach our first 500,000 and just three months short of three years to reach our second 500,000, with 2019 being our best year, with over ...
. . As the rest of the world was perceived to be “going to hell in a handbasket with an out-of-control pandemic; ructions in Europe as Britain copes with “Brexit” chaos; Trumpism in the United States climaxing with the 6 January mob-led coup attempt in Washington’s Capitol; a deadly ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Feb 14, 2021 through Sat, Feb 20, 2021Editor's ChoiceQ&A: Is Elizabeth Kolbert’s New Book a Hopeful Look at the Promise of Technology, or a Cautionary Tale?The Pulitzer Prize-winning ...
Session Thirty-Five. We have had some in-game and out-of-game indication that we are drawing to the end of the Dreamland adventure… which has lasted since the fourth session. Getting back to the Waking World will require some mental adjustment, especially considering that Annalax has spent thirty-odd sessions not ...
A Friend In Need: I have grown up, and grown old, within earshot of New Zealand’s public broadcaster. Through times of peace and plenty, through days of tumult and recrimination, it has been a constant and reliable presence. The calm and authoritative voices of Radio New Zealand kept their fellow ...
This article, authored by Dr Lisa Schipper, Dr Morgan Scoville-Simonds, Dr Katharine Vincent and Prof Siri Eriksen, was originally published on the Carbon Brief website on Feb 10, 2021. It is reposted below in its entirety. Click here to access the original article and comments posted on Carbon Brief. Photo by ...
. . As the rest of the world was perceived to be “going to hell in a handbasket with an out-of-control pandemic; ructions in Europe as Britain copes with “Brexit” chaos; Trumpism in the United States climaxing with the 6 January mob-led coup attempt in Washington’s Capitol; a deadly resurgent ...
by Georgina Blackmore Instead ask the government to separate the two issues caught under the heading of “Conversion Therapy”. 1) Gay Conversion Therapy which is what 99.9% of people believe this petition is about. It is a ban I personally support. 2) Gender Identity Conversion Therapy which doesn’t have any ...
The burning of books has a long history. That it no reason why we should add to it.If you want to get Burning of the Books: A History of Knowledge Under Attack from the National Library you may have to hurry. It is in the overseas nonfiction section; many books ...
by Daphna Whitmore After promising to tackle poverty, housing, transport, and climate issues in 2017, and failing on all these measures, Labour has moved to a Helen Clark “promise little and disappoint less” style of government. Poverty – perversely called “child poverty” by Ardern – has worsened under Labour. Much ...
This is one of those subject matters better suited to a thesis than a blog post, and far smarter people than I have tackled the question in a more detailed and accurate manner. But it’s a question that’s been running around in my brain for a fortnight or so. ...
Chris Fogwill, Keele University; Alan Hogg, University of Waikato; Chris Turney, UNSW, and Zoë Thomas, UNSWThe world experienced a few centuries of apocalyptic conditions 42,000 years ago, triggered by a reversal of the Earth’s magnetic poles combined with changes in the Sun’s behaviour. That’s the key finding of our ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jan Ellen Spiegel Colorado is no stranger to drought. The current one is closing in on 20 years, and a rainy or snowy season here and there won’t change the trajectory. This is what climate change has brought. “Aridification” is what ...
Sweet Surrender: By 1933, Adolf Hitler was the last political leader left standing, and his Nazis the only party Germany had yet to try. It was ever thus. Dictators and dictatorships succeed by being the only medicine a desperately sick nation hasn’t swallowed; the only strength that hasn’t failed.NOT ALL ...
"I know what you're not thinking!" Thanks to their polling agency and the participants in its focus-groups, the Labour leadership possesses a great deal more information about the Kiwis clamouring for action on the housing and inequality fronts than most journalists and lobbyists.ACCORDING TO PEOPLE “in the know”, Labour is ...
James Higham, University of OtagoThe Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment’s second tourism report urges the government to take advantage of the disruption caused by COVID-19 to transform the tourism industry. Titled “Not 100% – but four steps closer to sustainable tourism”, it builds on commissoner Simon Upton’s 2019 “Pristine, ...
My column over at Newsroom this week points out the fairly obvious. The government can add daily saliva testing for everyone at the border to the existing testing regimen. If daily testing winds up proving the swab tests to be redundant, ditch the swab tests when we find that out. ...
Geoengineering heats up Sorry, that was irresistible. By chance in this edition of New Research are two intriguing papers including different perspectives on the subject of geoengineering, a topic increasingly arousing emotions. Happily both of these papers are open access and free to read. A third article underlines that enthusiasm ...
Tamra Burns Loeb, University of California, Los Angeles; AJ Adkins-Jackson, Harvard University, and Arleen F. Brown, University of California, Los AngelesRacial and ethnic minority communities that lack internet access have been left behind in the race to get a COVID-19 vaccine. The average monthly cost of internet access, about ...
Zach St. GeorgeThe first and only time Steve Jackson spoke to Bill Critchfield was in the late 1980s. Critchfield, an authority on the conifers of North America, was at home recovering from a heart attack. Jackson, then a postdoctoral researcher at Brown University, had called looking for advice on how ...
Richelle Butcher, Massey University; Britta Denise Hardesty, CSIRO, and Lauren Roman, CSIROPlastic in the ocean can be deadly for marine wildlife and seabirds around the globe, but our latest study shows single-use plastics are a bigger threat to endangered albatrosses in the southern hemisphere than we previously thought. You ...
On Monday, the US Congress failed to hold former President Donald Trump accountable for inciting an attempted coup against the US constitution. So now someone is doing it privately, in the traditional American way: suing him: Donald Trump and Rudy Giuliani, the former president’s personal lawyer, have been accused ...
The media this morning was full of hopeful stories about how the current lockdown may have been a "false alarm" and an over-reaction and how it would all be over soon (I bet those journalists and editors all feel pretty stupid now). But along the way, National's Michael Woodhouse let ...
Jen Purdie, University of OtagoAs fossil fuels are phased out over the coming decades, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) suggests electricity will take up much of the slack, powering our vehicle fleet and replacing coal and gas in industrial processes. But can the electricity system really provide for this ...
Nearly twenty years after they first arrived, the last New Zealand troops will finally be leaving Afghanistan in May: New Zealand troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan by May 2021. The current deployment consists of six Defence Force personnel - three deployed to the Afghanistan National Army Officer Academy, ...
I’m a bit of an ETS-absolutist. Or at least a carbon-pricing absolutist, in a place the size of NZ. I think the Weitzman reasons for preferring a carbon tax to an ETS are second-order relative to political economy considerations, and any weight at all put on switching costs makes it ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob Henson Despite the speed bump posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is rolling toward completion of its Sixth Assessment Report, the latest in a series that began in 1990. IPCC’s assessments, produced by many hundreds of scientists volunteering countless hours, ...
On Friday (5 February) we went for a walk in the Karangahake Gorge, and were very happy to discover (during the Windows Walk) that there are glow-worms in the darker parts of the mine workings. (Strictly speaking they’re glow-maggots as they’re the larvae of small flies/midges, but that is perhaps ...
Alysha JohnsonThey say a good day is a busy day, and aboard the R/V Falkor (Seafloor to Seabirds in the Coral Sea – Schmidt Ocean Institute), almost every day is busy! On this particular day, we deployed a CTD, which stands for Conductivity, Temperature and Density. It is ...
This is a transcript of a speech by developmental biologist Dr Emma Hilton delivered at on 29 November 2020 for the ‘Feminist Academics Talk Back!’ meeting. This talk was originally published by womentalkback.org Sex denialists have captured existing journals We are dealing with a new religion Thank you for the ...
We know that when our rural communities do well, all of New Zealand benefits. Labour is committed to supporting our regions so that, together, we can achieve even more. Here are just some of the ways we’re backing rural communities. ...
Government data today shows that the wealthiest New Zealanders aren’t paying their fair share of tax, whilst everyone else chips in, Green Party spokesperson on Finance Julie Anne Genter said today. ...
The Green Party welcomes the change in the Reserve Bank’s remit to consider the impacts on housing when making financial decisions, but housing affordability shouldn’t be left to the Reserve Bank, Green Party Co-leader and Housing spokesperson Marama Davidson said today. ...
The Green Party welcomes the passing of the Local Electorate Act Māori Wards Amendment Bill which ensures Māori have a say on local issues across Aotearoa New Zealand. ...
New UMR research reveals that 69 percent of New Zealanders agree that the government should increase the amount if income support paid to those on low incomes or not in paid work. ...
The Green Party are celebrating the Labour Government bringing forward the timeline to ban conversion therapy, and will push to ensure any draft bill properly protects all of our Rainbow communities. ...
The Green Party is joining the call for ‘brave policy action’ to address rapidly increasing inequality in New Zealand, which is likely to be exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Green MPs currently in Auckland, Marama Davidson, Chlöe Swarbrick and Golriz Ghahraman, will remain in Auckland for the next 72 hours. Those in Auckland today for Big Gay Out who have flown home will self-isolate for 72 hours. These decisions will be subject to any new information that may arise ...
It’s Pride month, and as we celebrate our LGBTIA+ community, we’re taking the next steps towards a more inclusive Aotearoa. From investing in mental health services to banning harmful conversion therapy, we’re building a New Zealand where everyone can be safe, healthy and happy. ...
The Green Party strongly condemns the revelation that Air New Zealand may have provided assistance and maintenance to Saudi Arabian vessels involved in committing atrocities in Yemen. ...
A Deed of Settlement has been signed between Ngāti Maru and the Crown settling the iwi’s historical Treaty of Waitangi claims, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little announced today. The Ngāti Maru rohe is centred on the inland Waitara River valley, east to the Whanganui River and its ...
With a suite of Government income support packages available, Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni is encouraging people, and businesses, connected to the recent Auckland COVID-19 cases to check the Work and Income website if they’ve been impacted by the need to self-isolate. “If you are required to ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has expressed her condolences at the passing of long-serving former Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare. “Our thoughts are with Lady Veronica Somare and family, Prime Minister James Marape and the people of Papua New Guinea during this time of great ...
The Government is backing a new project to use drone technology to transform our understanding and protection of the Māui dolphin, Aotearoa’s most endangered dolphin. “The project is just one part of the Government’s plan to save the Māui dolphin. We are committed to protecting this treasure,” Oceans and Fisheries ...
Major water reform has taken a step closer with the appointment of the inaugural board of the Taumata Arowai water services regulator, Hon Nanaia Mahuta says. Former Director General of Health and respected public health specialist Dame Karen Poutasi will chair the inaugural board of Crown agency Taumata Arowai. “Dame ...
New funding announced by Conservation Minister Kiri Allan today will provide work and help protect the unique values of Northland’s Te Ārai Nature Reserve for future generations. Te Ārai is culturally important to Te Aupōuri as the last resting place of the spirits before they depart to Te Rerenga Wairua. ...
Today the Government has taken a key step to support Pacific people to becoming Community Housing providers, says the Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio. “This will be great news for Pacific communities with the decision to provide Pacific Financial Capability Grant funding and a tender process to ...
Conservation Minister Kiri Allan is encouraging New Zealanders to have their say on a proposed marine mammal sanctuary to address the rapid decline of bottlenose dolphins in Te Pēwhairangi, the Bay of Islands. The proposal, developed jointly with Ngā Hapū o te Pēwhairangi, would protect all marine mammals of the ...
Attorney-General David Parker today announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges. Two of the appointees will take up their roles on 1 April, replacing sitting Judges who have reached retirement age. Kirsten Lummis, lawyer of Auckland has been appointed as a District Court Judge with jury jurisdiction to ...
Government announces list of life-shortening conditions guaranteeing early KiwiSaver access The Government changed the KiwiSaver rules in 2019 so people with life-shortening congenital conditions can withdraw their savings early The four conditions guaranteed early access are – down syndrome, cerebral palsy, Huntington’s disease and fetal alcohol spectrum disorder An alternative ...
The Reserve Bank is now required to consider the impact on housing when making monetary and financial policy decisions, Grant Robertson announced today. Changes have been made to the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee’s remit requiring it to take into account government policy relating to more sustainable house prices, while working ...
The Labour Government will invest $6 million for 70 additional adult cochlear implants this year to significantly reduce the historical waitlist, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “Cochlear implants are life changing for kiwis who suffer from severe hearing loss. As well as improving an individual’s hearing, they open doors to ...
The Local Electoral (Māori Wards and Māori Constituencies) Amendment Bill passed its third reading today and will become law, Minister of Local Government Hon Nanaia Mahuta says. “This is a significant step forward for Māori representation in local government. We know how important it is to have diversity around ...
The Government has added 1,000 more transitional housing places as promised under the Aotearoa New Zealand Homelessness Action Plan (HAP), launched one year ago. Minister of Housing Megan Woods says the milestone supports the Government’s priority to ensure every New Zealander has warm, dry, secure housing. “Transitional housing provides people ...
A second batch of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines arrived safely yesterday at Auckland International Airport, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. “This shipment contained about 76,000 doses, and follows our first shipment of 60,000 doses that arrived last week. We expect further shipments of vaccine over the coming weeks,” Chris Hipkins said. ...
The Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Carmel Sepuloni has today announced $18 million to support creative spaces. Creative spaces are places in the community where people with mental health needs, disabled people, and those looking for social connection, are welcomed and supported to practice and participate in the arts ...
Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Minister Andrew Little today welcomed Moriori to Parliament to witness the first reading of the Moriori Claims Settlement Bill. “This bill is the culmination of years of dedication and hard work from all the parties involved. “I am delighted to reach this significant milestone today,” Andrew ...
22,400 fewer children experiencing material hardship 45,400 fewer children in low income households on after-housing costs measure After-housing costs target achieved a year ahead of schedule Government action has seen child poverty reduce against all nine official measures compared to the baseline year, Prime Minister and Minister for Child Poverty ...
It’s time to recognise the outstanding work early learning services, kōhanga reo, schools and kura do to support children and young people to succeed, Minister of Education Chris Hipkins says. The 2021 Prime Minister’s Education Excellence Awards are now open through until April 16. “The past year has reminded us ...
Three new Jobs for Nature projects will help nature thrive in the Bay of Plenty and keep local people in work says Conservation Minister Kiri Allan. “Up to 30 people will be employed in the projects, which are aimed at boosting local conservation efforts, enhancing some of the region’s most ...
The Government has accepted all of the Holidays Act Taskforce’s recommended changes, which will provide certainty to employers and help employees receive their leave entitlements, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Michael Wood announced today. Michael Wood said the Government established the Holidays Act Taskforce to help address challenges with the ...
The Government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and faster than expected economic recovery has been acknowledged in today’s credit rating upgrade. Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) today raised New Zealand’s local currency credit rating to AAA with a stable outlook. This follows Fitch reaffirming its AA+ rating last ...
Tena koutou e nga Maata Waka Ngai Tuahuriri, Ngai Tahu whanui, Tena koutou. Nau mai whakatau mai ki tenei ra maumahara i te Ru Whenua Apiti hono tatai hono, Te hunga mate ki te hunga mate Apiti hono tatai hono, Te hunga ora ki te hunga ora Tena koutou, Tena ...
The Minister of Justice has reaffirmed the Government’s urgent commitment, as stated in its 2020 Election Manifesto, to ban conversion practices in New Zealand by this time next year. “The Government has work underway to develop policy which will bring legislation to Parliament by the middle of this year and ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage and Social Development Hon Carmel Sepuloni today launched a new Creative Careers Service, which is expected to support up to 1,000 creatives, across three regions over the next two years. The new service builds on the most successful aspects of the former Pathways to ...
Overseas consumers eager for natural products in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic have helped boost honey export revenue by 20 percent to $425 million in the year to June 30, 2020, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor says. “The results from the latest Ministry for Primary Industries’ 2020 Apiculture Monitoring ...
Thanks to more than $10-million in new services from the Government, more rangatahi will be able to access mental health and addiction support in their community. Minister of Health Andrew Little made the announcement today while visiting Odyssey House Christchurch and acknowledged that significant events like the devastating earthquakes ten ...
Two month automatic visitor visa extension for most visitor visa holders Temporary waiver of time spent in New Zealand rule for visitor stays Visitor visa holders will be able to stay in New Zealand a little longer as the Government eases restrictions for those still here, the Minister of Immigration ...
The Tourism and Conservation Ministers say today’s report by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) adds to calls to overhaul the tourism model that existed prior to COVID19. “The PCE tourism report joins a chorus of analysis which has established that previous settings, which prioritised volume over value, are ...
The Government is providing certainty for the dietary supplements industry as we work to overhaul the rules governing the products, Minister for Food Safety Dr Ayesha Verrall said. Dietary supplements are health and wellness products taken orally to supplement a traditional diet. Some examples include vitamin and mineral supplements, echinacea, ...
The Government is joining the Council of Europe Convention on Cybercrime (the Budapest Convention), Justice Minister Kris Faafoi and Minister for the Digital Economy and Communications Dr David Clark announced today. The decision progresses a recommendation by the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Christchurch terror attack to accede to ...
Attorney-General David Parker announced today that an appointment round for Queen’s Counsel will take place in 2021. Appointments of Queen’s Counsel are made by the Governor-General on the recommendation of the Attorney-General and with the concurrence of the Chief Justice. The Governor-General retains the discretion to appoint Queen’s Counsel in ...
The new Resurgence Support Payment passed by Parliament this week will be available to eligible businesses now that Auckland will be in Alert Level 2 until Monday. “Our careful management of the Government accounts means we have money aside for situations like this. We stand ready to share the burden ...
A dry run of the end-to-end process shows New Zealand’s COVID-19 vaccination programme is ready to roll from Saturday, when the first border workers will receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says. “The trial run took place in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch yesterday afternoon, ahead of the ...
From June this year, all primary, intermediate, secondary school and kura students will have access to free period products, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate Education Minister Jan Tinetti announced today. The announcement follows a successful Access to Period Products pilot programme, which has been running since Term 3 last ...
The latest update shows the Government’s books are again in better shape than forecast, meaning New Zealand is still in a strong position to respond to any COVID-19 resurgence. The Crown Accounts for the six months to the end of December were better than forecast in the Half-year Economic and ...
The Department of Conservation’s (DOC) new Heritage and Visitor Strategy is fully focused on protecting and enhancing the value of New Zealand’s natural, cultural and historic heritage, while also promoting a sustainable environmental experience, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “It has been a quarter of a century since DOC first developed ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Defence Minister Peeni Henare have announced that New Zealand will conclude its deployment of the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) to Afghanistan by May 2021. “After 20 years of a NZDF presence in Afghanistan, it is now time to conclude ...
Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you today. This is a special time in our country. A little over a week ago, it was the anniversary of the signature by Māori and the British Crown of Te Tiriti O Waitangi (the Treaty of Waitangi), a founding document in ...
The Government is in contact with relevant authorities in Turkey following the arrest of a former Australian and New Zealand dual citizen there, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “Contingency planning for the potential return of any New Zealander who may have been in the conflict zone has been underway for ...
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – Author Margaret Mills speaking at the launch of The Nine Lives of Kitty K at Waiheke Library today. IMAGE: David Robie Introduction for the book launch of The Nine ...
Analysis: One new case was enough to force Auckland back into lockdown less than a week after it returned to Level 1. Marc Daalder explains why New Zealand has dealt with nearly a dozen border failures and minor community outbreaks of Covid-19. Only a couple have resulted in an alert ...
Auckland returns to level three lockdown for seven days as of 6am Sunday February 28, with the rest of the country going to level two. Here’s what the experts are saying, via the Science Media Centre.Shaun HendyWith new cases detected in the family of a Papatoetoe High School student, Auckland ...
A new community case in Auckland today has prompted the announcement that the city is to return to alert level three, and the rest of the country level two, from 6am on Sunday. Here’s the latest.What’s happening?Auckland is to move to alert level three from 6am on Sunday, February 28. ...
As of 6am on Sunday February 28, Auckland moves to level three, with the rest of the country going to level two, for seven days. For the latest official advice see here.What happened?A new case, known as “case M”, is a sibling of a student at Papatoetoe High School, which is ...
The discovery of a new community case that can't be definitively linked to existing cases has forced Auckland back to Level 3, Marc Daalder reports Auckland is returning to Level 3 for seven days and the rest of New Zealand will escalate to Level 2 for the same period from ...
In deciding to move Auckland out of lockdown, Jacinda Ardern has decided to take on more risk than she might have previously, Marc Daalder writes New Zealand's approach to the pandemic so far has been a conservative, risk-averse one. Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson has previously spelled out the ideology of ...
Businesses with workers needing to cross the Alert Level boundary near Auckland will need evidence of permitted activity or an exemption. Travel documents that were issued earlier this month remain valid. Any business with workers that have lost ...
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Interesting interview by Kim Hill with Dr Chris Smith, consultant clinical virologist at Cambridge University, on the Pfizer claims of a soon to be ready, 90% effective covid-19 vaccine.
A few points:
Re the 90% rate, and the first planned roll out in the UK of vaccinating 30% of the population, the rationale is that you vaccinate vulnerable people and their caregivers first. I can see how this would work in the UK which has widespread community transmission. I'm less clear about NZ, mostly because I haven't seen vaccination in the context of a plan around opening the borders. Vaccinating the frontline workers (border control, medical people) makes sense. Is anyone talking about beyond that?
permanent link not up yet.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday
Audio link – https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018772793/chris-smith-how-exciting-is-pfizer-s-vaccine-news
It occurs to me that there needs to be a vaccine against the hubris of the self-centred, know-all type who talks their way into a position such as a President, Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Chancellor, CEO etc. It would act against hubris with a steady-on there, let's look at the facts and likely outcomes, and discuss them widely with a summary of pros and cons that satisfy everyone concerned that the point they wish to make is covered in the content.
An anti-hubris vaccine is what should be the next 'great work' from the scientists. And it could be spread by droplets, so if you can get near enough and aerosol the air, it will reach the pushy, one-eyed, slightly mad people who seem to hypnotise their way into people's brains, probably from the projection or transference that people perceive.
Projection and transference are very similar. They both involve you attributing emotions or feelings to a person who doesn't actually have them. … Projection occurs when you attribute a behavior or feeling you have about a person onto them. Then, you may begin to see “evidence” of those feelings projected back at you. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/transference
The double standard is what gets me. Low cost, low risk interventions that we knew about back in March like Vitamin D get pooh pooh'ed because they haven't been through large gold standard double blind, peer reviewed published studies … yet somehow a vaccine leaps to the front of the queue without having to leap over the same hurdles.
The cautions you list are all quite reasonable, yet the msm is largely silent on them.
Between the blatant political biases, the incessant click bait and the selective spin put on everything … it's reached the point where reading the news has become a masochistic act of psychological self abuse.
Any scientific research coming out of countries deemed to be adversaries of the US and its allies is immediately derided or ignored
https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/venezuela-s-maduro-presents-molecule-that-inhibits-covid-19-907001.html
And the financial heft and influence of the pharmaceutical companies can't be ignored .Never let a simple , cheap, achievable solution come between big pharma and its profits
Yes. The capture of the science by both political and business interests is deplorable. A similar story to climate science only this time the actors are wearing different hats.
Then there is this:
https://twitter.com/SebastianHantel/status/1325484241442975750/photo/1
If it works it will be the anti-inflammatory effect (as the cheap steroid gives – but not so well known, that same cheap steroid has been used in hospitals for lung/breathing difficulty amongst new borns for decades).
Dexamethasone?
Vitamins are regarded by 'those who know' as like the poor, they are always with us but they aren't up to much.
A 2020 public wants a click bait solution. an instant coffee vaccine. Yesterday.
No knowledge of what it takes, no understanding of the myriad, multi-layersed infinite variables and research involved.
The low status of scientists has been permanent, the disparagement and scorning of their work in the early stage of coronavirus very public. Every Tom Dick and Harry even if they'd done no science in high school or past their second year there, suddenly knew more about something experts had spent their lives immersed in
Now though we want them to magically click their fingers and save us.
I say, "Start by saving your fucking selves (and others) by doing some cheap, easy basic things. It ain't virological and epidemiological science."
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/what-pfizer-vaccine-results-mean-for-nz
I think this is a good article about the vaccine and quotes one of our leading experts in the field. It explains why 90% effectiveness is high and how that works.
I think there is a danger of fuelling anti vaccination sentiment and this isn't helpful at the moment
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies. This is how medical science works and I am grateful for it.
Of course if leaders of the world had used the behavioural strategies available to control an infection like Covid 19 and the populace had of adopted these strategies, then the pandemic would be on the wane. Leaders of the world are clearly very imperfect and have ignored the science. The general public are also imperfect, e.g people drinking at bars on Ponsonby Road last night without social distancing when there is currently Covid in the community. FFS. I cannot understand why people would do this, but then that is just me.
How about we all start feeling grateful there is a vaccine? Small Pox, measles etc have either been eradicated or controlled by vaccines. And do all the right things to fight the virus before it is rolled out. The use of the Covid tracer app is frankly woeful……
What is the answer to 'frankly woeful' use of the Covid tracer app? Is that use and that App better than nothing – and it is just one small thing in our approaches?
https://www.pharmalive.com/sunshine-vitamin-could-help-boost-immunity-in-fight-against-covid-19/
Did a bit of my own research after reading Red Logix comment above. This is interesting about Vitamin D.
BTW Peter I strongly agree with your sentiment “Start by saving your fucking selves”
I am not sure what the answer is to the Covid apps use being woeful. Important that the authorities remind us and mandate its use.
I am a small business owner and in the position to ask my customers to sign in everytime.
Sadly fear is often a great motivator. Covid app use goes up when there is an outbreak…….
But yes Pete the tracer app is just one of the tools but an important one if we want to avoid lockdowns.
There has already been discussion about how the app doesn't work on a number of devices we already have. Therefore the thinking goes, we should buy new devices. That costs money and the people that are doing work of great value against Covid are not usually those with good incomes and resources. Solution – develop a new multi-platform? app or add-on that will work in present cellphones etc. Or make new cellphones available free to those who need them.
It seems that we are running out of steam for coping with outcomes. Once something is designed, we have done our bit says government and their facilitators for tech. If it doesn't work it's SEP.
And gummint remember, we are basically a poor country, so don't look at the real estate smiles for a measure, look at the large number of no-estate citizens. We talk about 'punching above our weight?', actually it means the bodies of NZ sinking slowly and the hands apparently punching are actually a gesture of a cry for help.
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies.
Which is well and good, but it's not like Vitamin D is a novel and unknown substance. It's well understood, has known benefits, and cases of toxic overdose are extremely rare. Countries like Sweden have already been adding it to some foods, albeit at relatively low levels, for many years now. They plan on on increasing it now.
The biggest problem, I'd suggest, is that it's so very cheap.
Those taking aspirin did well when infected with the coronavirus. Similar to those who had good levels of Vitamin D – presumably in mitigating problems caused by the illness – no clots etc.
Vitamin D – "very cheap", easy to get, widely touted in the msm as a potential "game changer" in the fight against COVID-19 (even the esteemed Dr Fauci takes it), etc., etc.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/should-take-vitamin-d-stop-19194332
Over the last month the global number of active cases of COVID-19 has increased from 8.5 million to 15 million. IMHO the "biggest problem" is that civilisation is in the grip of a rapidly spreading pandemic. As long as taking vit. D supplements (in the safe range) doesn't compromise other common sense measures (physical distancing, hygiene, border controls, track and trace) to limit COVID spread, then what's not to like? Just don't forget about zinc (also in safe quantities):
https://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Article/2020/10/26/NutraVideo-Zinc-vitamin-D-are-key-in-COVID-fight
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/treatments-for-covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/add-vitamin-d-bread-milk-help-fight-covid-urge-scientists-deficiency-supplements
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2020/10/30/vitamin-d-lowers-covid-risks/
Thanks for the links DMK
Folic acid (a vitamin B) and fluoride are cheap too and have known health benefits with good safety profiles. There’s more to it than just simple economic arguments, there always is.
And pregnant women. This group could be the biggest risk to both mother and baby.
And pregnant women. This group could be the biggest risk to both mother and baby
Women of childbearing age and babies cannot be considered 'vulnerable'….give the new vaccine to those who it is ethical to experiment on.
I know what happened with thalidomide and how people had to fight the drug company. Not just the drug company but the Ministry of Health. I have a lot of time for your views on health agencies and the delivery of services.
I agree unethical to give the vaccine to pregnant women. There may even be a window period prior to conceiving which is unsafe.
That was in 1961/62. It was developed for morning sickness. Given that birth defects were not immediately obvious it is understandable that there was a lag. I’d think that most civil servants working in MoH (DoH, as it was known then) at the time have moved on.
The philosophy of science/medicine of the time was the problem though, not the lack of ability to see the future, and I still see science is god* people arguing that the damage that gets done is the price we pay for the good science brings.
*science as the one true way and better than all other ways of knowing sometimes to the exclusion of other ways of knowing.
Sure, it was a disaster but to somehow connect that example to a Covid-19 vaccine and MoH in present time seems plain fear mongering, IMO. There are risks, always will be, and these need to be managed properly. If we’re saying that we cannot trust the makers of that or any other Covid-19 vaccine, that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us, then we might as well stay in bed and wait for the end of time to come and get (take?) us. I struggle with outbursts of hyper-emotional theatrics and histrionics and self-reinforcing loops of fear, distrust, and paranoia. Let’s talk these things through calmly, kindly, and respectfully.
that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us,
You might want to Google "Ministry of Health Disability Support Services neglect and abuse.."
There's plenty of reading, and yes, some of it is "emotional" because that's how people get when a government organisation charged with providing care and support to a particular group of citizens fails. Time and fucking time again.
And if you think some of us are locked into this cycle of paranoia and distrust…you ought to have been sitting in various legal venues over the past two decades and listened how our beloved Crown Law argued the case against disabled New Zealanders and their families. This might give you some idea.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/abuse-in-care-inquiry-survivors-disappointed-no-apology-from-solicitor-general/MVITVSRDQGDRTW2N5B7BB5LX3I/
But to have a Crown Lawyer eyeball you in court and spew their bile…a whole new and novel experience. I wouldn't piss on any of them if they were on fire.
This is the Ministry of Health…charged with providing tax payer funded health and disability services and they treat citizens like so much worthless shit….
…and Crown Law…charged with ensuring New Zealand Laws are upheld…not treating innocent citizens as if we're guilty.
Fucking oath I wouldn't trust them.
Oh, and some of us have tried 'calm, kind and respectful' and ended up being treated like we have done wrong. That we had lied and cheated. That we would abuse and neglect. When it was the Ministry's own contracted providers doing the abusing and neglecting. And the Ministry lied and denied.
And yes Incognito I have crates full of evidence. I have evidence that senior bureaucrats at the MOH:DSS are so stunningly ignorant of the realities of the care required for some disabled people with the very highest needs that one doesn't know whether to guffaw at their outright idiocy or weep that they are in charge of peoples lives. So we do both.
And do I have to remind you again of the debacle that was the mask instructions for those requiring home based care? They fucking dug their toes in didn't they? Nevermind the precautionary principle, nevermind that Uncle Ashley knew so little of what was required for personal cares that he was waffling on about 'only if you're closer that 1 metre to the client'. What and ignorant fool…but I guess he was being advised by those ignorant numpties in DSS.
I have seen nothing over the past 10 months that raises my trust level in our Government and especially not for the MOH.
Oh and the 'risks'…none for Pfizer, they'll have immunity from any responsibility. They can't lose.
You always present your side so well.
It's not that the MoH is going to feed us a drug as bad as thalidomide. It's that the worldview is still similar. We're better, because we learned from thalidomide, but there is also reason to be cautious. It's a potent mix, a pandemic narrowly averted in NZ but still raging elsewhere, the push to save the economy, a health system that has been rationalised economically for decades, and a MoH with substantial cultural problems.
As for trusting the MoH, there are many people that good reason not to, unfortunately. Maybe we should amplify their voice a bit. It's not a black and white thing, criticising the MoH doesn't mean they're useless or can't be trusted in any capacity. But denial of the risks and problems doesn't help either.
"Science is a way of not fooling yourself." – it's not the only way.
Applies (in some measure) to all ways of not fooling yourself, IMHO.
I was looking at the assistance given then and now to the affected children, now adults. As well support to the mothers. This would be ongoing for both.
There were lots of legal wrangles, as you can imagine, and a few settlements with companies. What was the role of MoH in all that and what assistance did it give?
MoH attitude was send your child to an institution and have another baby to fill the void. Fight for disability assistance as well in your adult years.
I do not do scare mongering. I try to deal with the facts. History cannot be allowed to repeat itself with any medication/vaccine. I am not an anti vaxer, never have been and probably never will be.
When it came to legal wrangles any fool could see it was the thalidomide. It took years to settle a case and it would have been stressful to deal with the drug company which had the resources to squash you.
4 December 1961 thalidomide was recalled in NZ. It took the Department of Health until July 27 1962 to issue an official directive to destroy the remaining stocks of the drug.
https://www.google. com/amp/s/corpus.nz/chemical-legacies-thalidomide-in-new-zealand/amp/
Not sure why the link failed.
Deleted the space after “https://www.google.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/corpus.nz/chemical-legacies-thalidomide-in-new-zealand/amp/
Thanks
A bit more on that 90% efficacy/10% failure: it seems they were only looking for symptomatic people, and weren't testing for asympotmatic-but-infectious people. So depending on how "efficacy" is defined. That also has implications for what % of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
Another factor is it isn't clear how failed the failures were. The data set probably isn't big enough for the answer yet, but if the vaccine didn't completely prevent disease, but still reduced the likelihood of a mild infection progressing to severe disease or death, that's still a very worthwhile outcome, even if it falls short of being included in the the "efficacy" definition.
Everything I've seen suggests there isn't yet a clear plan on which groups are priorities for early vaccinations. Just vague generalities about front-line staff (most likely to be exposed), and vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled, elderly, those with illness that put them at extra risk, elderly etc. I haven't yet seen anything about when it might get extended to those likely to be in contact with large numbers of people, ie teachers, bus drivers, hospitality staff etc.
…vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled
Ironically the groups with greatest reason not to trust the government.
https://theundefeated.com/features/half-of-black-adults-say-they-wont-take-a-coronavirus-vaccine/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/less-trust-among-maori-in-vaccines-and-gps-study-suggests/3K7UXAYC3AAFTED2VER735ZQEQ/
And after the outrageous way the MOH decided disabled people and their home based carers did not need PPE, especially masks, unless symptomatic my guess is that the disabled might be a little cautious also. I still reckon the Ministry was hoping that Te Virus would carry off more of this vulnerable group.
Oh well.
UK plan seems to be 30% vax rate, focused on the vulnerable.
The issue in NZ is the borders. Yes, vaccinating isolation hotel staff, medical staff and border control people makes sense, but talking about herd immunity in NZ doesn't make sense unless we also talk about how/when the borders would open. I assume we're not having that conversation yet because we don't know how effective any vaccine will be, nor how long it confers immunity. The rush from my pov is for countries who have out of control community transmission, and no good way to contain that now (although I assume there is a useful strategy in doing lockdowns, distancing, masks etc *and vaccinating).
My problem there is that because it will be rushed, there are likely to be people who have adverse reactions, and they will be seen as collateral damage in large part for the economu. But it remains to be seen if they will be taken seriously, how adverse reactions will be reported and monitored, and whether those people will get support. Lots of shitty anti/pro vax wars stuff is really going to bite us now.
Am also mindful that NZ is bad at supporting chronically ill people, and I haven't seen anything to suggest we will be better on this with long haul covid. It's not just about the death rate and the economy.
Maths dude interviewed by Hill this morning made some good points about vaccine hesitant people, we shouldn't treat them as stupid or ostracise them, but instead talk through the issues people are concerned about for themselves and their kids. This seems paramount now if we don't want a bigger anti-vax backlash.
Yeah all the points are true. It's a glimmer of hope, not a guarantee.
The things that separate the pfizer thing from any other magic bullet so far is that at least a decent-sized trial is under way and close enough to deliver intial results, and also pfizer is an established industry actor – it's not a startup looking for money, promising the earth, and with one magic black box they promise will be amazeballs when it finally works.
It could all go tits up on the cusp of production. But at least it's progress.
Point 2 give me a minor quibble, though. If the success metric is immunity, 90% is amazeballs. Some figure for herd immunity people were throwing around a while back was 60%. So even if 35% don't get it, that's a population immunity rate of 67% when we only need 60% to stop clusters emerging (assuming a random distribution of vaccine uptake). So 90% effective is probably good enough.
Contrast with measles(?) vaccine which I seem to recall needs in the range of 100% uptake to stop community spread outright.
90% across most of the population once the vaccine is effective and we know how it works in human populations, would be amazing. I'm not sure how close we are to that. I suspect 2021 reality will be more uneven, less certain. I also think there is a case for letting other countries get enough supplies to do whole populations before places like NZ (esp countries that are struggling to contain covid because of resource issues).
Child slavery alive and well at Gloriavale Mbie labour inspectors fail child slavery victims.
Gloriavale,exclusive brethren etc can practice financial sexual abuse and modern day slavery .
Time for these outfits to be fully prosecuted.
What do the children know of the world at Gloriavale other than hard work, the Bible and not having a voice?
Children as young as 16 marry at Gloriavale. Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
Treetop – Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
I would say probably. There would be expectations of marriage, and to a chosen person. I have family who seem to be in a sect; my young relative did very well at school developing a skill in draughtsmanship, but got married to a young man from the group when she was about 17. And babies came soon. Life as an adult had just begun, but maturing, developing her own skills, abilities as a male would, was not to be encouraged. And it would have probably taken her out of the group which grows, tight-knit. There are quite a few groups, patriarchal, like this around. They live apparently normal lives, but constrained and controlled. If they home-school then the children are isolated and may be deprived of contact with other children outside the chosen circle, and are like hens being fed, clucking around, and laying eggs, all for the greater good.
There are a set of well-written books at Young Adult level by Fleur Beale such as 'I Am Not Esther' that deal with life in a sect. https://www.penguin.co.nz/authors/fleur-beale
A youngish mother of 11 from the Gloriavale community drowned in November 2018. I don't know how old she was but that's constant pregnancies. https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/mother-of-11-from-nz-sect-drowns-after-falling-into-swollen-river-20181109-p50eyt.html
They have Leaders imposed on them apparently. And are involved with other similar groups in other countries. The Sydney Morning Herald notes that the early group was started by an Australian. (This reminds me of Jones from USA who took his group out of his country to South America; which ended unhappily in violence and murder).
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108473460/gloriavale-leaders-daughterinlaw-found-dead-on-west-coast?rm=m
Last week, former US Navy engineer Howard Temple was confirmed as the new head of the community.
A former member, who still has family in the community, said Temple was appointed the new "overseeing shepherd" after the death of Hopeful Christian. Temple, who Christian had appointed his successor, recently spent several weeks visiting a Gloriavale off-shoot in India, he said.
Gloriavale has a long relationship with India, supporting an evangelical organisation and setting up a community in Tirunelveli, in southern India.
I will read the links supplied.
Those who leave a sect need an organisation to go to, to help with a new start in life due to having lived in an abusive and controlled invironment. The loss of family would be hard to deal with.
There is not much difference between a refugee and a person escaping an intolerable situation when it comes to assistance required to live a meaningful life or to escape persecution.
You're right Treetop from what I have read.
Long-ish interview with Democratic polling & data expert David Shor.
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334?__twitter_impression=true
Well one thing you can be sure of is that he Democratic establishment will learn nothing from almost losing to Trump, as in 2016 they will blame the voters and progressives for their failures.
Democratic leaders play a ridiculous blame game with progressives
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/08/democratic-leaders-play-ridiculous-blame-game-with-progressives/
He would be more believable if he spent time showing the disenfranchisement effect of Republicans utterly screwing district boundaries to favour white people against all categories of non-white for decades.
Also he would have done better if he accepted where demographic shifts really helped Democrats over time.
California used to be regularly Republican – but their last win there was under Reagan. A Democrat president since Carter would simply be ruled out if that hadn't followed the demographic trend to support Democrats.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-california-voting-history/
Demographics did count there.
They also certainly counted in Georgia this year (which most MSM broadcasters have called this morning) and as this commentary notes, demographic change in Georgia and other sunbelt states was critical there.
https://www.vox.com/21551547/georgia-competitive-democrats-biden-2020
Now, there may well be lazy Dem-leaning commentators who proposed the inevitability of change.
But who would have thought that Bill Clinton would take out those solid mid-western states like Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri – with growing Black voter bases? Democrats would, of course. That's 1992 and 1996.
Then of course there's Obama, who would compare his first election to Shor's analysis and just laugh.
A Democratic president needs luck, and the right candidate, and you also need the right demographic headwinds.
^^^^
This
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/democrats-statehouses-republican-control-gerrymandering-redistricting-census.html
Some time ago there was a post to The Standard about a radio report saying that a survey had indicated that there was a minority of New Zealanders that supported Trump – mostly also National supporters – does anyone recall when that was?
This is a survey of Trump support in NZ.
The radio report will have been about the study at this link. A personal experience of 'debating' with a relative and listening to Trumpeters losing their minds on talkback before and since the US election has been equally revealing:
https://theconversation.com/who-are-donald-trumps-supporters-in-new-zealand-and-what-do-we-know-about-them-149424
Some titbits from the link above.
Of the 55,147 who answered the question in the mid-2020 survey, 6,833 said they hoped Trump would win. So, who are these Kiwi Trumpers? And what do they really think?
Even demographic spread
…Kiwi men are more than twice as likely to support Trump than women — a much wider gender gap than was found in the US after the 2016 election.
Kiwi Trumpers are distributed evenly across lower and middle income brackets, and support declines only slightly in the upper income brackets.
Perhaps surprisingly, 15.6% of Pasifika respondents and 20% of those who ticked the “gender-diverse” box hoped Trump would win — above the overall 11% result….
Only 20% of National supporters overall said they hoped Trump would win. But this sub-group of National supporters made up 56% of the entire cohort of Kiwi Trumpers. A further 23% of Kiwi Trumpers supported ACT. So, the National Party is the preferred party of the Kiwi Trumper.
Nov.6/20 by Grant Duncan Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University
In all seriousness, who gives a shit?
We simply won't get a Trump here given the differences in political systems and I am assuming 99% of those polled wouldn't be able to vote in the US.
It is obvious you don’t give a shit and you obviously didn’t read past the headline. Nobody in this thread was joking.
We don't live in the US and who cares how many kiwis support Trump?
He is out anyway and he doesn't run NZ in the first place.
Unless you can find an equivalent in NZ, which there isn't, it is a bit of a stupid thing to try to compare us to.
Having said said that, I know some people think we are comparable to the US for some odd reason,.
We’re much better than the US for some odd reason. I knows it.
Well here is a depressing but unsurprising unpacking of the neo con, war mongering Biden cabinet…yuk
As Trump rejects US election, Biden signals continued regime change abroad
I think I can fairly say I have had a longtime very low opinion of D. Jobless Drumpf's cognitive processes. But even I'm having trouble with the idea this is actually from him. To the point that I've tried to find evidence that this is a spoof. But Daniel Dale appears to be a genuine reporter for CNN, heavily involved in fact-checking, and it’s not April 1, so …
Mind you, Trumps press conference on election night 'I've won, stop counting" set the tone for what was to come!
There needs to be more discussion about politics and society and how we go about ordering and disordering what we have. I think we should have regular regional Ted Talks from people who have a range of views and can present a reasoned case.
Not a religious pulpit as such, but people aware of how neo-lib is trying to traduce religion and our natural virtuous instincts. I refuse to be merely an object in a business culture experiment, being manipulated to do something, a pigeon activated to peck for whatever by remote control.
Our information sources are sadly lacking and more frequently have a bias because of the commenter being a paid mouthpiece from some firm, or a straight PR providing focussed promotion and advertising. How are we to learn, comprehend and place into a framework of understanding about what is happening in our fast-moving society? Parents, school, broadcast media – all with bias and tending to dislike learning from reading, thought, questioning and discussion, even debates are competitive, but what if there is no straight-out or easy answer, just equivocal solutions each tailored for the special situations occurring! Instead the preference is for physicality – sports, running, biking, walking is more spoken about than encouraged.
Information, news; the old idea of the Fourth Estate here – I wonder if it is still being fed to trainee journalists?
The term Fourth Estate or fourth power refers to the press and news media both in explicit capacity of advocacy and implicit ability to frame political issues. Though it is not formally recognized as a part of a political system, it wields significant indirect social influence. Fourth Estate – Wikipedia
The press is called the fourth estate in the United States usually because they observe the political process. They do this to make sure the participants do not exploit the democratic system. They play a crucial role in the outcome of political issues and candidates. Fourth Estate – Open School of Journalism
You're soaking in it.
That's why my hands are so soft and gentle though touching facts hot and hard to face.
Gordon Campbell wants someone to sing a soothing lullaby to overheated David Seymour.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2011/S00075/on-adrian-orrs-lending-scheme-the-collins-reshuffle-and-the-trump-coup.htm
Seymour’s calling out of Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s recent stimulatory actions as “Muldoonist” and “unorthodox” (while slagging Orr himself as a “liability”) should be treated as a tantrum best handled by putting Seymour back in his cot again, until he cries himself to sleep.
I heard Seymour and realised in a RNZ interview we wouldn't hear his solutions. The format suits him, he can spray and walk away.
No doubt he will write a book about how he would start form scratch and reorganise things so that Adrian Orr is not in the situation where he has to make the decisions he has made.
He may have done in on his pre-election rounds. Or not. No votes in that.
The long arm of the law is on it's way.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1326917694642335746.html
What the Scots think of Donald:
Been posted many times before, but it just never gets old:
How soon is it too soon to test for Covid and how late is it too late to test for Covid?
Today a weak positive case, a neighbour at the Vincent Street Apartments. They were previously tested. It is looking like a second test a week apart might be the way to go with some close contacts and to isolate until after the second test result is known.
I have given it a thought if the pipes between the Vincent Street Apartments and the Millennium Hotel are shared by connection and back flow could be an issue.
What is it we would really like the government to do when it has got all the important things accomplished?
I would like fireworks to be available only for licensed users at public functions. NO private sales. Then they wouldn't be popping up all through the year, November 5th bangs on and on upsetting and likely to cause fires and eye damage when aimed wrongly. Health and safety could prove their worth by forcing intelligent laws on this but….
And I hate the sirens we have. So strident, so high and loud, the dogs on the hill howl and I feel like it too. Here are some ideas for better from the inimitable Bill Bailey (I can't remember what that means but think, good).
Did I hear correctly on NatRad that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored and transported at MINUS 80 ( F,or C? ) . Whichever it pretty much buggers it as a cure for most of the world.
-60 c i believe.
Bit of a challenge.
That's what tuna are frozen at – doable for good enough reasons.
It's below minus 70C. Dry ice is minus 78C, so containers surrounded by dry ice will do the job. Pfizer has developed a transport container that will keep it cold enough for 10 days, or up to 25 days if the dry ice is replenished. So it's a challenge to be sure, but not insurmountable.
The ebola vaccine had similar requirements, and they managed to get it out into the field. Although in the end, the vaccine was late to the party and public health measures had already controlled the outbreak.
https://time.com/5911543/pfizer-vaccine-cold-storage/
Thanks Andre.
Has the conniving fool in the White House made his intentions clear yet?
Is the media thinking everything is ok now?
No
No, but still…..
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/13/can-donald-trump-stay-in-office-second-term-president-coup
The 5.4 million difference in the popular vote was largely from California
Joe Biden (D) 10,757,884 63.82%
Donald J. Trump (R) 5,736,893 34.03%
The winning Electoral College vote was largely decided in five major Democrat controlled cities: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), Milwaukee (Wisconsin), Detroit (Michigan) and Atlanta ( Georgia).
The Elections have been dangerously close elsewhere which seems to have emboldened the losing side!
Sorry Maurice, but your overview of the election results neglects the margins by which Trump beat Biden in the 25 states that he did win, and neglects the size of the vote in each state where Biden flipped the state.
Wisconsin 20,500+
Michigan 125,000+
Pennsylvania 75,000+
Arizona 10,500+
Georgia 14,000+
(as at 8.45 am NZDST)
Most political commentators suggest that the size of these margins are well outside the margin which would be susceptible to being overturned on recount, or by the odd instance of voter fraud.
Biden beat Trump by over 900,000 votes in New York state which is heavily Republican outside of the City. The fact that a city's population might influence the outcome of a state's voting preference, does not mean that the popular vote has no relevance.
New York State is indeed interesting with over 2 million votes yet to be counted.
Biden votes are largely concentrated in the city counties – about 14 of them whereas Trump votes are spread out over the less populous counties – about 48 of them
With about 84% of the expected vote counted the results as at 5.11 pm ET are displayed here:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/new-york-president-results
The expression a death by a thousand cuts, just leave him to it. Have a plan for needing to detain him when necessary where national security is at stake.
What to do with the president would be being discussed. At some point intervention may be required for his own welfare.
There used to be a term in NZ of 'sectioning' someone who had noticeably lost their marbles.
The Mental Health Act still mandates treatment for a mental illness whether or not a patient agrees.
https://communitylaw.org.nz/community-law-manual/chapter-16-mental-health/compulsory-treatment-orders/
Is it possible that the present incumbent of the White House will appear at Biden's presidential inauguration on Jan 20 2021, claiming it as his own for a second term? After all, given the recent post US election insane ramblings and utterings from Trump, I doubt anything he says or does from now on will be surprising!
And here it is. Trump’s whole office is stark raving bonkers!
.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-
“Bonkers” lets Trump et al. off the hook, IMHO. They’ve taken a stand against democracy.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-trump-claim
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-trump-claim/GUN2QDKR6SM7RHQTYVCAR2ZVTY/
Thanks Anne – the most problematic link yet?
There is a culture of denial and false hope in the Presidents inner circle. This cannot continue. It is one thing to want a recount and another to not admit that Biden won.
Seems like everyones happy 'bout Biden winning, I wonder if Julian Assange is, we will see what sort of a humanist Biden turns out to be, nothing short of dropping the case against Julian will tell a tale, but dont hold your breath.
Possibly when it comes to treating Assange right and giving him release plus a rap over the knuckles, it'll be like the old song 'I'm just biding my ti.ime, That's the kind of guy I am."
I’m as happy about Biden winning as I’m about NZ Labour winning an absolute majority.
gold
(nsfw)
A long thread with something for everyone: Russians, Dan Bongino, Steve Bannon, The Epoch Times, Candace Owens, Cassandra Fairbanks, the husband of Paul senior's granddaughter with political connections to both Pauls and Mitch McConnell, the hospitality coordinator at a tRump hotel steakhouse at a Trump hotel, Giuliani’s former law firm and lots more.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1327253991936454663.html
Shoutout to Deborah Russell and team for actually holding a Thankyou Volunteers Event today to the people on the ground who actually worked for weeks on the election in New Lynn.
Don't usually hear of MPs taking the time to actually thank us drones.
Onyer Deborah.
And we smashed them.
‘Thank-you' events have been around for decades. They usually took the form of a BBQ put on by the candidate and more often than not took place at their home.
Too late, sport, the damage is done.
After President Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and the tea party (which pushed to slash federal spending) emerged, Mr. Koch threw his weight behind the new movement and its candidates. “We did not create the tea party. We shared their concern about unsustainable government spending, and we supported some tea-party groups on that issue,” Mr. Koch wrote in an email. “But it seems to me the tea party was largely unsuccessful long-term, given that we’re coming off a Republican administration with the largest government spending in history.”
Mr. Koch said he has since come to regret his partisanship, which he says badly deepened divisions. “Boy, did we screw up!” he writes in his new book. “What a mess!”
Mr. Koch is now trying to work together with Democrats and liberals on issues such as immigration, criminal-justice reform and limiting U.S. intervention abroad, where he thinks common ground can be found. He has partnered with organizations including the LeBron James Family Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union and even a handful of Democratic state legislative campaigns. In 2019, he renamed the Koch network of about 700 donors as Stand Together.
https://archive.li/fbLOx (wsj)
Government spending isn't unsupportable. In fact, its government spending that empowers the economy.
What's unsustainable is private profit. Money taken out of the economy and not spent back into it.
Trump vs Biden – the rap battle.
We seem to be cornering Ardern and Robertson. Y'know about the people and reality. James Shaw, of all people, is trying out his talking voice re housing.
Us Left interested.
Why I voted for Andrew Little. Their magic talk for nothing.
You have to imagine how little i care for their moth shadows.