Breaking News: Nuclear Fusion is thirty years away! (and always has been)
A sparrow farts
After almost 70 years of effort, and $billions spent, in a world first, net energy gain has been achieved in the lab., but it is far far away from being practical.
As proof of principal, powerful lasers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories have managed to heat a deuterium pellet to instantaneous temperatures and pressures where fusion occurs, releasing greater energy than the energy needed to run the colossal lasers that achieved this feat. Unfortunately, none of the released fusion energy was in a form that could be used to power the lasers. (that energy still came from the grid).
Drawing power from the grid, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory can heat one deuterium pellet a day. A sparrow fart could generate more 'usable' energy. To get any usable net energy gain from this process they need to heat up to 50 deuterium pellets a second.
A nuclear fusion cheerleader interviewed this morning on TVNZ Breakfast said it will take 30 years of research and development to get over the engineering hurdles required to heat 50 pellets a second.
The first time I mentioned fusion on the standard probably 8 years ago, I was basically laughed at because all the bright people here said it had always been 10 years away, now it's here it's proven watch capitalism pick the batten up and run .
I would have said that ‘it is always at least 20 years away’ to get to a proof of concept. In fact I did back in 2009. So 13 years on we haven’t further than proving more than we could get more energy out for a short time period.
They haven’t even got close to recovering the energy cost to start the reaction
“It is a big scientific step,” says Ryan McBride, a nuclear engineer at the University of Michigan. But, McBride adds, that does not mean that NIF itself is producing power. For one thing, he says, the lasers require more than 300 megajoules worth of electricity to produce around 2 megajoules of ultraviolet laser light. In other words, even if the energy from the fusion reactions exceeds the energy from the lasers, it’s still only around one percent of the total energy used.
They don’t have anything like the ability to maintain a continuous reaction suitable for generating power.
Moreover, it would take many capsules exploding over and over to produce enough energy to feed the power grid. “You’d have to do this many, many times a second,” McBride says. NIF can currently do around one laser “shot” a week.
Above all, they have no method to make it self-sustaining because they have no way to actually generate power off the excess energy released. There is no transfer mechanism from energy being released from fusion and an ability to use that to power the reaction, or to feed electricity to the grid.
Betti agrees that the timeline to building a fusion plant is “definitely decades”. But, he adds, that could change. “There’s always a possibility of breakthrough,” he says. And the new NIF results could help spur that breakthrough forward. “You’re going to get more people to look into this form of fusion, to see whether we can turn it into an energy-making system.”
They’d also have to figure out how to get their raw material costs down from hundreds of thousands of dollars down to pence (as one report put it). This is a engineering research breakthrough rather than an production engineering breakthrough. It isn’t even a scientific breakthrough – that was achieved in the 1950s when the release of energy from fusion agreed with the theoretical results.
It is of interest – yes. Worth getting excited about – no.
It is hard to see how without those power generating basics there could be any use from fusion within the time frame to do anything of use for a more immediate problems like dropping greenhouse gas emissions over the next 20 years to 2042.
My first degree was a science degree. But by the end of second year the requirement to spend a further 8-10 years at university before I could get hired to actually do something was somewhat dispiriting.
It died completely except as a interest topic after I found out what the employment stats in your speciality were like for PhDs. I really don't have that level of myopia. I like working wide rather than really really narrow. Went into management because I was naturally good at kit, then sidetracked into programming because I liked the persistent learning curve and humility it induces, and these days (for some reason) I keep getting called an engineer in my job titles.
It is of interest – yes. Worth getting excited about – no.
Totally agree. It will likely be a few more weeks before we see some sober, balanced assessment of the implications of this particular announcement. It is not yet clear to me whether it is the result of some fundamental new insight that can be scaled up rapidly, or it is more the culmination of existing programs finally making good on the net energy milestone. Too much hype, not enough detail.
I have always said fusion is a bright, shiny goal absolutely worth chasing; but frankly a small fraction of the monumental budgets being spent on it directed toward more immediately achievable goals in the Gen 4 nuclear fission space – would be money better spent.
Ultimately fusion is likely to be a power source if you need a large plant. Less of an issue with heavy metal radioactive waste with long (by human historical and even up geological) half lives.
But in many ways some of the micro-fusion reactor projects look more interesting than these progresses towards large fusion. But currently they often look optimistic because I get the sense that they're concentrating on the output above input and not so much on how to get a usable electricity source from it. But this article caught my eye if only because this level of engineering is way faster to determine results and issue than building PoC projects costing in their billions.
If you can do it at a micro level it probably gets easier to scale by addition. Which in essence is what the solar panels / battery systems are showing. We just don’t have particularly smart grids and probably won’t quite a while.
With fission, as I keep repeating, we have had engineers building new generation toys every few decades since the 1940s. They have continually neglected to planning in how to clean up their toys and the waste products behind themselves. I'm currently of the opinion that they should demonstrate that they can do really truly do that before letting rip on generating a whole new round of waste.
how to clean up their toys and the waste products behind themselves.
Which is a fair question. Personally I have taken a reasonably deep dive for a lay person into this topic, but I will attempt to keep this response concise. This is after all a political blog, not a nuclear engineering one.
The critical insight is that our current nuclear waste repositories are actually a priceless fuel reserve. They arise merely because Gen 2 and 3 reactor technologies using solid fuel systems use barely 3% of the uranium fuel before the assembly must be discarded for purely for reasons of mechanical integrity. 97% of the uranium and energy potential is left sitting literally on the table.
There are a number of pathways to access this energy, and in the process burn up almost all of the more hazardous, long-lived photon emitting fission by-products. And reducing the volume of high-level waste by a factor of 100 and the storage timeframe to about 300 years. Which is highly achievable.
The more I learned about radiation, the less I came to fear it. The problem is that we have been told two fatal lies about it:
One is that it is possible to build reactors that have a vanishingly small chance of ever releasing any radiation. This is demonstrably untrue because we have had Three Miles Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima events that demonstrably contract this claim and undermine trust. And while I firmly believe Gen 4 or better reactors are inherently far less likely to suffer failure events, the number will never be zero.
But the other big lie is the Linear No Threshold (LNT) model. It told us that any amount of ionising radiation , no matter how small, was harmful and worse still the impact was cumulative in a linear fashion. For this reason the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) mandate was regulated – which has proved insanely expensive to implement. Despite the fact of the model being utter bullshit.
We live on a planet bathed in background radiation. Life likely needs radiation to evolve efficiently. More importantly it turns out living cells have very effective cellular repair mechanisms that work to repair DNA damage at levels remarkably higher levels of exposure than most people imagine. (Even more interestingly it is the rate of exposure that matters as well.) And for all conceivable nuclear power reactor accident scenarios, the magnitude and rate of ionising exposure is so low as to be well below the threshold of causing any harm whatsoever.
(Indeed many studies have shown that people fortunate enough to live in places with relatively high background levels may well have somewhat lower levels of cancers than normal. This reality stands in contradiction to all the activist scaremongering thrust on us for several generations now.)
Once you understand that radiation releases from nuclear power plants are not going to be cataclysmic, that the waste streams are not going to reduce entire continents to unlivable wastelands – then it is no longer necessary to pretend we can make perfect nuclear reactors or waste streams with zero radiation. Once we renounce the Cataclysm Lie, we no longer have any need for the patently false, trust sapping It Will Never Fail lie. An occasional release is tolerable. Now nuclear power can regulated much like any other highly beneficial, hazardous activity.
And we can get on with building a human future that does not stand in contradiction with a habitable planet.
A reasonable question that I can respond to in three broad directions.
One is embedded in my comment above. Essentially the reason why current nuclear tech is more expensive on a nameplate basis than solar and wind is that we have loaded layers of unnecessary costs onto it. All analysis I have seen suggest we have made nuclear at least 3 times more expensive than needed in a pointless, futile effort to reduce radiation releases to levels far, far below the threshold where they might cause harm.
The other broad answer is that solar wind battery is only cheap on a nameplate basis – in most places in the world a combination of a very low capacity factor (less than 10%) and the necessary complexity and costs of integrating the inherent intermittency into the grid – has meant that everywhere it has been implemented so far, the cost of electricity to the consumer has risen dramatically. Germany vs France being a prime example.
Another factor rarely mentioned is the relatively short lifespans of solar wind installations. Being exposed to the elements these large scale installations are going to be doing well to survive 20 or so years. And then they need replacing at huge cost all over again. By contrast building a nuclear plant with an 80 yr life span is very doable.
But perhaps the biggest constraint in my mind is that so far we have been exploiting highly productive locations where there is lots of sunshine and wind. Most of the world, and especially close to where people live, is not like this. We are picking the low hanging fruit for the moment, but there is not an unlimited supply of it.
Yet globally the demand for high quality energy over this coming century can be reasonably projected to increase by a factor of 3 – 8 times our current total consumption depending on the assumptions you make. Yet so far all the new solar wind capacity we have installed so far, even when in ideal locations, is barely keeping pace with the rate at which we are closing nuclear plants – often for no good reason.
The idea that we can use renewables to both cheaply and fully supply our current total demand, much less our future requirements, is a very long stretch of the bow indeed.
This is how you lie if you're a idiot blogger like Jack with an agenda and no conscience.
First of all you put up a straw man alternate villain (coal ash) without any details and call it something (in this case 'toxic') without specifying how. Then minimise the danger of your villain with words like 'only 500 years' – ie roughly 20 generations of humans. While never actually show in what happens if either villain escapes.
Then you praise the incarceration of your villain without showing the relative levels of incarceration against a level of escape. Never talk about the effects relative or otherwise of either in the event that they do escape.
Then emphasise that your villain is stored wealth and should be left easily accessible for future generations. Jez I wonder how long it is before someone cuts open the little fence and breaks it out?
//—–
Doing a comparison to coal waste is kind of ridiculous. That gets buried and for good reason. Coal ash mostly gets buried in pits these days and has done for a long time. It only needs a decent hard to leach through flooring and walls and a reasonably hard to penetrate top cover. It isn't stacked high because that just makes it vulnerable. It doesn't need a fully leach proof separation because the idea is to diminish but not stop leachates.
But it simply isn't that toxic except for locally. There are mountains of coal ash already stored, it can be toxic because it contains small quantities of contamination of heavy metals like cadmium, mercury, arsenic, etc. This is only a problem when it gets leached or blown away too fast and concentrates.
Heavy metals are in all environments – the problem happens when they are too concentrated. The biosphere has long adapted to them. It is safer to not live near granite (a known source of heavy metals) or river flood plains (a known collector of heavy metals). But biological organisms are good at encapsulating and excreting them in low doses.
This isn't the case for heavy metals with any kind of strong radioactivity of any kind. That is because while they bind to biological matter like most heavy metals (and eventually get excreted) , they also irradiate and damage DNA, RNA, proteins, tissues, and the defence mechanisms around them even when wrapped up for excretion.
Id they leach into water or the biosphere, it isn't like holding them in a jar and running them against you most radio-protective organ of your body (the skin). Even the idiot Jack Devanneyis aware of this…
Few can penetrate the outer layer of skin. In order for alpha particles or electrons to do any damage, they must be ingested or inhaled. Being a bit rhetorical here. To be precise, the alpha and electron emitters must be swallowed for the particles to be harmful.
The problem is that is exactly what happens when the containment is cracked and they leak into the water table or biosphere? Because they absolutely will. None of the containment systems have been tested for centuries of inattention
So how do you keep these exposed repositories safe for 500+ years. Stop something like a orbital crowbar in a late 21st century orbital war being used to cracking them open. Nuclear waste dumps are a really cool 'accident' deniability target in enemy territory.
Make sure that the next New Madrid earthquake doesn't tilt the hillside sideways. Massive continental crust earthquakes in 'stable' areas may not happen often but they are surface changing. You can literally find a nice rolling hill becoming a river bed in an instant.
That they can withstand being abraded in the sand storms blasting and eroding their exteriors for a century or so. etc
For some reason Jack doesn't describe any layered defence if the cylinder get cracked and stated to leach or abrade. That is because there isn't any. These are destroyable cylinders sitting out in the weather and the rain. Easily targetable looking at google earth or over the net.
It also doesn't account for things like the 140 tonnes of extracted weapons grade plutonium at Sellafield. Which has value in 5kg lots with a little bit if fast acting explosive and fast detonators.
Breeder reactors have been developed and looked at since the 1950s. What is notable about their waste is that it produces some real monster dangerous radioactives in its waste. Lower weight elements like radioactive strontium, cesium, and cadmium may not have the longer lives. What they do have is a strong ability to get bound into biological bodies and sit there irradiating them.
I'd suggest that you look less at the physics and more at the chemistry, biological, geological and historical aspects of nuclear waste disposal.
Shit happens, and containment like this or the 20m above sealevel at Sellafield at present simply aren't realistically designed for containment. They just designed for convenience by some really stupid engineers.
The best thing about renewable energy is that they are pretty damn safe if you look across 500+ years. Sure they can kill people when they fail. Dams drop. Windmills cartwheel downhill etc.. They can’t just keep poisoning the biosphere for 20+ human generations in the future when containment fails.
From a systems perspective and if you ignore the possibility of a bit of carnage in the short term. Renewable power systems are pretty much inherently safe over historical time. Nuclear power systems are the opposite.
The point of Delvany's comparison with coal ash was primarily to compare the relative volume of material produced:
If Connecticut Yankee had been a coal plant, it would have produced between 3,000,000 and 6,000,000 tons of toxic ash in its operating life, not to mention 110 million tons of CO2. If we attempted to store this ash on the CY fuel cask pad, we would have a column of ash about 7000 feet high. The volume of solid waste per unit power produced by a nuclear power is 100,000 times less than that produced by a coal plant.
That is scarcely a strawman – obviously the nature of the nuclear and coal waste streams are very different – but it is entirely valid to point out that the volume is also very different as well – by four orders of magnitude.
A volume that would be reduced by another two orders when properly consumed in the new Gen 4 reactors designed and operated for this purpose. Comparison with Gen 2 breeder reactors from the early days of the industry is not useful.
Nor would I neglect to mention that air pollution from fossil fuelburning is reliably estimated by to cause the pre-mature death of about 10,000 people per day. Somehow we manage to live with this astonishing hazard, yet the vanishingly tiny risk of nuclear waste is amplified into a monster.
And if we have orbital crowbars capable of disrupting geologic repositories many hundreds of metres deep – then I would politely suggest we have bigger problems to worry about.
…..The net energy gain achievement applied to the fusion reaction itself, not the total amount of power it took to operate the lasers and run the project.
This greatly lauded proof of principal experiment is an excuse to continue heating up the climate by burning fossil fuels in the hope that we will be saved from total biosphere collapse at the 11th hour by the miraculous advent of this technology.
I feel this will be a plus for the PM, as it breaks her sometimes tiring, goody-good head-prefect persona, to show a more usual human response underneath. The apology was spot-on, slightly toothy. A bit more of the relatable Jacinda, please.
If this is the story you're referring to, it's yet another example of Luxon being … well, just a little bit weird. He talks and keeps talking and ends up saying things like:
"David was my neighbour for many years. He was a very good neighbour I can tell you that. He was very well behaved, kept his music under control."
OK. Music. That's the issue. Jolly good. What are you on about, man?
In all seriousness, the more Luxon talks the worse for National. His mouth runs away from him, he has no verbal discipline. He’s a gaffe-aholic, and in an election campaign he has to talk a lot more. Good.
Totally, the guy's an idiot. The only trouble is that too few NZers see it. They love the fact 'National's back' with 'a man as their leader'. And it looks like there ain't a thing Labour can do about it.
I don't think it's as bad as that. The details of polling won't make headlines, but they are quite revealing. The latest poll tells us that Luxon is negative 29 with undecided voters.
Right now National is 'Other'. People are dissatisfied for various reasons, and the Opposition reap the benefit. The 'Not Government' party.
But the more people learn about the alternative PM, the less impressed they are. They want … another 'Other'.
However, how many of those 'undecideds' will get out and vote? If they like Ardern, but don't like her government's policies – it seems to me that they're more likely to just stay home.
I agree that there is still an opportunity for Labour to turn this around. But it's going to take some radical pruning of unpopular policies (and politicians).
it was fun watching dave seemore get squelched by the speaker yesterday. eemore wanted AR to sanction the PM over something somebody had heard on the radio and rung him up about. no dice dave. hansard is the record and poo must be raised at the time.
That report shows you how so much of the crime "debate" is completely missing the point. Rhetoric versus reality.
Look at what happened (allegedly, we're obliged to say). Man commits (potentially) aggravated robbery. Offence has potential sentence of 10 years' jail.
He then returns to the same shop, even after the alarm has gone off. He is (not surprisingly) caught, minutes later. He does all this for no material gain.
Very high risk, very low reward, and nobody who thinks about it would attempt such a crime. So the "deterrent" is totally irrelevant. Stupid people do stupid crimes. Issues like drugs, alcohol etc may be a factor too.
Crimes like this would happen even if we had capital punishment for stealing Fanta.
Aggravated robbery is a maximum of 14 years if that's where it ends up, but agree with your general points. On the capital punishment point, it wasn't unknown in earlier times in England and Great Britain for pickpockets to be publicly executed (usually by hanging), and for other pickpockets to be active in the crowd at the public execution.
Watched the Zelensky address to parliament this morning. Good speeches all round bar one. Yes, David Seymour. He used the occasion to pour contempt on the $3 million dollars of extra aid announced by Jacinda Ardern. Ignored the fact we have given nearly $60 million in aid of one sort or another and we are a very small country in the scheme of things.
The aid is in addition to almost $8m in humanitarian help already provided, and $48m of military spending including on training deployments, donation of surplus equipment, and procurement of weapons and ammunition.
I just keep thinking of him as rather strategically stupid.
The one bit of amusement I have if National finally win the election in 2026 (maybe 2023 – but it seems unlikely) is just how useless the prick will be at combining the demands of his caucus with what is possible to negotiate with a larger coalition partner.
He really isn't a Prebble or Hide or even a Banks. It is hard to see him managing both sides of that management role of being small party within government with a rather diverse pile of hungry fringe nut-bars with varying objectives to satisfy.
Might get mocked, but after a move he's my electorate mp. (was in Mt Roskill previously). Anywhere I ran into a bit of an issue and contacted his office for some help. He went into bat for me via a phone call and letter and had my issue sorted quick smart. Will be weird but he's earnt my electorate vote.
Realistically, that has to be his road to retaining the electorate, being a good electorate MP, but it's always good to hear about it actually happening.
I do hear anecdotally, that he's a very good electorate MP. Door knocks regularly. Turns up at events. Goes in to bat with the bureaucracy for his constituents.
I believe Anderton was, as well (don't have direct knowledge of either of them).
I think it's something that's often overlooked. And, is, actually, a really important part of being an electorate MP. Some MPs are really good at it. Others are just not.
Which of the current crop of MPs do you think are good electorate ones? I’m hearing good things about Swarbrick – which will certainly help cement her hold on Auckland Central.
Standardistas, I’m thinking about putting up periodic current affairs debate topic posts, short intro and links from me and some guidelines for debate. On days when there are no new posts.
Haven’t talked with the other authors yet, but hoping for some suggestions from commenters for a name. eg
Today’s Debate: [name of topic].
where ‘today’s debate’ is replaced with something catchier.
Fair. If it's a daily post, synonyms for daily are quite obscure, but debate has a few options that people will have heard of. Discourse was the one I posted, but even something like discussion is fine. That said, daily debate is alliterative, so it has that going for it.
It is also yet another failure by a journalist to ask the obvious question: "What do the words actually mean? What are the implications here?"
He provided some insight into his view of the world in light of the war, advocating for muscular militaries and criticising a “weak” United Nations. … (says) “But this war has proved that when you have to fight for what you believe in, you need an army, weapons, ammunition, and friends to help defend your interests.”
Luxon is calling for a stronger military. That means spending more money. Taxpayers' money. Now that is a position that can be debated and/or defended but Luxon is never asked to.
He says the same thing about health, education, transport, police/justice … everything really. Do more = invest more = spend more.
I don't mind having an opposition that wants to spend more. But they claim to be wanting to spend less. It's a fraud and yet Luxon is rarely challenged on it.
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Welcome back to our weekly roundup. We hope you had a good break (if you had one). Here’s a few of the stories that caught our attention over the last few weeks. This holiday period on Greater Auckland Since our last roundup we’ve: Taken a look back at ...
Sometimes I feel like I don't have a partnerSometimes I feel like my only friendIs the city I live in, The City of AngelsLonely as I am together we crySong: Anthony Kiedis, Chad Smith, Flea, John Frusciante.A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area. ...
Open access notablesLarge emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra, Torn et al., Nature Communications:Climate warming may accelerate decomposition of Arctic soil carbon, but few controlled experiments have manipulated the entire active layer. To determine surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and ...
It's election year for Wellington City Council and for the Regional Council. What have the progressive councillors achieved over the last couple of years. What were the blocks and failures? What's with the targeting of the mayor and city council by the Post and by central government? Why does the ...
Over the holidays, there was a rising tide of calls for people to submit on National's repulsive, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill, along with a wave of advice and examples of what to say. And it looks like people rose to the occasion, with over 300,000 ...
The lie is my expenseThe scope of my desireThe Party blessed me with its futureAnd I protect it with fireI am the Nina The Pinta The Santa MariaThe noose and the rapistAnd the fields overseerThe agents of orangeThe priests of HiroshimaThe cost of my desire…Sleep now in the fireSongwriters: Brad ...
This is a re-post from the Climate BrinkGlobal surface temperatures have risen around 1.3C since the preindustrial (1850-1900) period as a result of human activity.1 However, this aggregate number masks a lot of underlying factors that contribute to global surface temperature changes over time.These include CO2, which is the primary ...
There are times when movement around us seems to slow down. And the faster things get, the slower it all appears.And so it is with the whirlwind of early year political activity.They are harbingers for what is to come:Video: Wayne Wright Jnr, funder of Sean Plunket, talk growing power and ...
Hi,Right now the power is out, so I’m just relying on the laptop battery and tethering to my phone’s 5G which is dropping in and out. We’ll see how we go.First up — I’m fine. I can’t see any flames out the window. I live in the greater Hollywood area ...
2024 was a tough year for working Kiwis. But together we’ve been able to fight back for a just and fair New Zealand and in 2025 we need to keep standing up for what’s right and having our voices heard. That starts with our Mood of the Workforce Survey. It’s your ...
Time is never time at allYou can never ever leaveWithout leaving a piece of youthAnd our lives are forever changedWe will never be the sameThe more you change, the less you feelSongwriter: William Patrick Corgan.Babinden - Baba’s DayToday, January 8th, 2025, is Babinden, “The Day of the baba” or “The ...
..I/We wish to make the following comments:I oppose the Treaty Principles Bill."5. Act binds the CrownThis Act binds the Crown."How does this Act "bind the Crown" when Te Tiriti o Waitangi, which the Act refers to, has been violated by the Crown on numerous occassions, resulting in massive loss of ...
Everything is good and brownI'm here againWith a sunshine smile upon my faceMy friends are close at handAnd all my inhibitions have disappeared without a traceI'm glad, oh, that I found oohSomebody who I can rely onSongwriter: Jay KayGood morning, all you lovely people. Today, I’ve got nothing except a ...
Welcome to 2025. After wrapping up 2024, here’s a look at some of the things we can expect to see this year along with a few predictions. Council and Elections Elections One of the biggest things this year will be local body elections in October. Will Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Canadians can take a while to get angry – but when they finally do, watch out. Canada has been falling out of love with Justin Trudeau for years, and his exit has to be the least surprising news event of the New Year. On recent polling, Trudeau’s Liberal party has ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Much like 2023, many climate and energy records were broken in 2024. It was Earth’s hottest year on record by a wide margin, breaking the previous record that was set just last year by an even larger margin. Human-caused climate-warming pollution and ...
Submissions on National's racist, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill are due tomorrow! So today, after a good long holiday from all that bullshit, I finally got my shit together to submit on it. As I noted here, people should write their own submissions in their own ...
Ooh, baby (ooh, baby)It's making me crazy (it's making me crazy)Every time I look around (look around)Every time I look around (every time I look around)Every time I look aroundIt's in my faceSongwriters: Alan Leo Jansson / Paul Lawrence L. Fuemana.Today, I’ll be talking about rich, middle-aged men who’ve made ...
A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 29, 2024 thru Sat, January 4, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
Hi,The thing that stood out at me while shopping for Christmas presents in New Zealand was how hard it was to avoid Zuru products. Toy manufacturer Zuru is a bit like Netflix, in that it has so much data on what people want they can flood the market with so ...
And when a child is born into this worldIt has no conceptOf the tone of skin it's living inAnd there's a million voicesAnd there's a million voicesTo tell you what you should be thinkingSong by Neneh Cherry and Youssou N'Dour.The moment you see that face, you can hear her voice; ...
While we may not always have quality political leadership, a couple of recently published autobiographies indicate sometimes we strike it lucky. When ranking our prime ministers, retired professor of history Erik Olssen commented that ‘neither Holland nor Nash was especially effective as prime minister – even his private secretary thought ...
Baby, be the class clownI'll be the beauty queen in tearsIt's a new art form, showin' people how little we care (yeah)We're so happy, even when we're smilin' out of fearLet's go down to the tennis court and talk it up like, yeah (yeah)Songwriters: Joel Little / Ella Yelich O ...
Open access notables Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist:Recent academic debate has seen the emergence of the claim that misinformation is not a significant societal problem. We argue that the arguments used to support this minimizing position are flawed, particularly if interpreted (e.g., by policymakers or the public) as suggesting ...
What I’ve Been Doing: I buried a close family member.What I’ve Been Watching: Andor, Jack Reacher, Xmas movies.What I’ve Been Reflecting On: The Usefulness of Writing and the Worthiness of Doing So — especially as things become more transparent on their own.I also hate competing on any day, and if ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by John Wihbey. A version of this article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections on Nov. 11, 2008. (Image credits: The White House, Jonathan Cutrer / CC BY 2.0; President Jimmy Carter, Trikosko/Library of Congress; Solar dedication, Bill Fitz-Patrick / Jimmy Carter Library; Solar ...
Morena folks,We’re having a good break, recharging the batteries. Hope you’re enjoying the holiday period. I’m not feeling terribly inspired by much at the moment, I’m afraid—not from a writing point of view, anyway.So, today, we’re travelling back in time. You’ll have to imagine the wavy lines and sci-fi sound ...
Completed reads for 2024: Oration on the Dignity of Man, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola A Platonic Discourse Upon Love, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola Of Being and Unity, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola The Life of Pico della Mirandola, by Giovanni Francesco Pico Three Letters Written by Pico ...
Welcome to 2025, Aotearoa. Well… what can one really say? 2024 was a story of a bad beginning, an infernal middle and an indescribably farcical end. But to chart a course for a real future, it does pay to know where we’ve been… so we know where we need ...
Welcome to the official half-way point of the 2020s. Anyway, as per my New Years tradition, here’s where A Phuulish Fellow’s blog traffic came from in 2024: United States United Kingdom New Zealand Canada Sweden Australia Germany Spain Brazil Finland The top four are the same as 2023, ...
Completed reads for December: Be A Wolf!, by Brian Strickland The Magic Flute [libretto], by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart and Emanuel Schikaneder The Invisible Eye, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Owl’s Ear, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Waters of Death, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Spider, by Hanns Heinz Ewers Who Knows?, by Guy de Maupassant ...
Well, it’s the last day of the year, so it’s time for a quick wrap-up of the most important things that happened in 2024 for urbanism and transport in our city. A huge thank you to everyone who has visited the blog and supported us in our mission to make ...
Leave your office, run past your funeralLeave your home, car, leave your pulpitJoin us in the streets where weJoin us in the streets where weDon't belong, don't belongHere under the starsThrowing light…Song: Jeffery BuckleyToday, I’ll discuss the standout politicians of the last 12 months. Each party will receive three awards, ...
Hi,A lot’s happened this year in the world of Webworm, and as 2024 comes to an end I thought I’d look back at a few of the things that popped. Maybe you missed them, or you might want to revisit some of these essay and podcast episodes over your break ...
Hi,I wanted to share this piece by film editor Dan Kircher about what cinema has been up to in 2024.Dan edited my documentary Mister Organ, as well as this year’s excellent crowd-pleasing Bookworm.Dan adores movies. He gets the language of cinema, he knows what he loves, and writes accordingly. And ...
Without delving into personal details but in order to give readers a sense of the year that was, I thought I would offer the study in contrasts that are Xmas 2023 and Xmas 2024: Xmas 2023 in Starship Children’s Hospital (after third of four surgeries). Even opening presents was an ...
The Green Party has welcomed the provisional ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, and reiterated its call for New Zealand to push for an end to the unlawful occupation of Palestine. ...
The Green Party welcomes the extension of the deadline for Treaty Principles Bill submissions but continues to call on the Government to abandon the Bill. ...
Complaints about disruptive behaviour now handled in around 13 days (down from around 60 days a year ago) 553 Section 55A notices issued by Kāinga Ora since July 2024, up from 41 issued during the same period in the previous year. Of that 553, first notices made up around 83 ...
The time it takes to process building determinations has improved significantly over the last year which means fewer delays in homes being built, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “New Zealand has a persistent shortage of houses. Making it easier and quicker for new homes to be built will ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is pleased to announce the annual list of New Zealand’s most popular baby names for 2024. “For the second consecutive year, Noah has claimed the top spot for boys with 250 babies sharing the name, while Isla has returned to the most popular ...
Work is set to get underway on a new bus station at Westgate this week. A contract has been awarded to HEB Construction to start a package of enabling works to get the site ready in advance of main construction beginning in mid-2025, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“A new Westgate ...
Minister for Children and for Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour is encouraging people to use the resources available to them to get help, and to report instances of family and sexual violence amongst their friends, families, and loved ones who are in need. “The death of a ...
Uia te pō, rangahaua te pō, whakamāramatia mai he aha tō tango, he aha tō kāwhaki? Whitirere ki te ao, tirotiro kau au, kei hea taku rātā whakamarumaru i te au o te pakanga mo te mana motuhake? Au te pō, ngū te pō, ue hā! E te kahurangi māreikura, ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says people with diabetes and other painful conditions will benefit from a significant new qualification to boost training in foot care. “It sounds simple, but quality and regular foot and nail care is vital in preventing potentially serious complications from diabetes, like blisters or sores, which can take a long time to heal ...
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour is pleased to see Pharmac continue to increase availability of medicines for Kiwis with the government’s largest ever investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the government,” says Mr Seymour. “When this government assumed ...
Mā mua ka kite a muri, mā muri ka ora e mua - Those who lead give sight to those who follow, those who follow give life to those who lead. Māori recipients in the New Year 2025 Honours list show comprehensive dedication to improving communities across the motu that ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is wishing all New Zealanders a great holiday season as Kiwis prepare for gatherings with friends and families to see in the New Year. It is a great time of year to remind everyone to stay fire safe over the summer. “I know ...
A year out from leaving the bear pit that is the pinnacle of our democracy, I have returned to something familiar. A working life in litigation, mainly in employment law, has brought me full circle, refreshed old skills and exposed me to some realities and values which have stunned me.But ...
2025 is the Year of the Snake, so it should be another productive year for the David Seymours of the world by which I mean of course people with an enigmatic and introspective nature. Those born in previous Snake years – 1953, 1965, 1977, 1989, 2001 – will flourish in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney The acclaimed American filmmaker David Lynch has died at the age of 78. While a cause of death has yet to be publicly announced, Lynch, a lifelong tobacco enthusiast, revealed ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Monika Ferguson, Senior Lecturer in Mental Health, University of South Australia People presenting at emergency with mental health concerns are experiencing the longest wait times in Australia for admission to a ward, according to a new report from the Australasian College of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Blazevich, Professor of Biomechanics, Edith Cowan University We’re nearing the halfway point of this year’s Australian Open and players like the United States’ Reilly Opelka (ranked 170th in the world ) and France’s Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (ranked 30th) captured plenty of ...
Asia Pacific Report Four researchers and authors from the Asia-Pacific region have provided diverse perspectives on the media in a new global book on intercultural communication. The Sage Handbook of Intercultural Communication published this week offers a global, interdisciplinary, and contextual approach to understanding the complexities of intercultural communication in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin T. Jones, Senior Lecturer in History, CQUniversity Australia In his farewell address, outgoing US President Joe Biden warned “an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy”. The comment suggests ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hrvoje Tkalčić, Professor, Head of Geophysics, Director of Warramunga Array, Australian National University A map showing the ‘Martian dichotomy’: the southern highlands are in yellows and oranges, the northern lowlands in blues and greens.NASA / JPL / USGS Mars is home ...
A new poem by Niamh Hollis-Locke.Field-notes: Midsummer, 9pm, walking barefoot in the reserve after a storm, the sky still light, the city strung out across backs of the hills Dunes of last week’s cut grass washed downslope against the bracken, drifts of pale wet stems rotting into one ...
The poll, conducted between 9-13 January, shows National down 4.6 points to 29.6%, while Labour have risen 4.0 points from last month, overtaking them with30.9%. ...
As the world farewells visionary director David Lynch, we return to this 2017 piece by Angela Cuming about escaping into the haunting world of Twin Peaks. I was only 10 years old when Twin Peaks – and the real world – found me.Once a week, in the dark, I ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marc C-Scott, Associate Professor of Screen Media | Deputy Associate Dean of Learning & Teaching, Victoria University Screenshot/YouTube The 2025 Australian Open (AO) broadcast may seem similar to previous years if you’re watching on the television. However, if you’re watching online ...
By Anish Chand in Suva A Fiji community human rights coalition has called on Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka to halt his “reckless expansion” of government and refocus on addressing Fiji’s pressing challenges. The NGO Coalition on Human Rights (NGOCHR) said it was outraged by the abrupt and arbitrary reshuffling of ...
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Toby Manhire tells you everything you need to know ahead of season two of Severance.After an agonising wait – nearly three years between waffles, thanks to US actor and writer strikes and, some say, creative squabbles – Severance returns today, Friday January 17. For my money the first season ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Talia Fell, PhD Candidate, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland The Los Angeles wildfires are causing the devastating loss of people’s homes. From A-list celebrities such as Paris Hilton to an Australian family living in LA, thousands ...
The outgoing and incoming presidents have both claimed credit for the historic deal, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund for The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
Finally, some good fucking news. The Friday Poem is back! Last year, The Spinoff leveled with its audience about the financial reality it faced and called for support from its audience. Some tough decisions were made at the time including cuts to our commissioning budget and the discontinuation of The ...
The soon-to-be deputy PM has already had a crucial win behind the scenes. First published in Henry Cooke’s politics newsletter, Museum Street. Margaret Thatcher used to love prime minister’s questions. If you’re not familiar, the UK parliamentary system has a weekly procedure where the prime minister is subject to at least ...
Summer reissue: The current coalition not lasting beyond this parliamentary term is an idea that’s been seized on by its opponents. History suggests it’s unlikely – but not impossible. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read ...
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New Zealand needs to boost its productivity growth and become more attractive and accessible as a workplace in order to fix its labour market woes, a recruitment agency says.Commenting on new salary survey results from Robert Walters, Shay Peters, the company’s Australia and New Zealand chief executive, says the Government ...
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By Daniel Perese of Te Ao Māori News Māori politicians across the political spectrum in Aotearoa New Zealand have called for immediate aid to enter Gaza following a temporary ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. The ceasefire, agreed yesterday, comes into effect on Sunday, January 19. Foreign Minister Winston Peters ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Sherlock, Lecturer, School of Fashion and Textiles, RMIT University Australian-owned brand UGG Since 1974 has announced it will change its name to “Since 74” for sales outside Australia and New Zealand. There has been a long-running battle over the rights ...
The committee has agreed to split into two sub-committees to increase the number of people it can hear from in the time available. Each sub-committee will meet for 30 hours total, together making up 60 of the 80 planned hours of hearings. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research scholar, Middle East studies, Australian National University The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, to come into effect on Sunday, has understandably been welcomed by the overwhelming majority of Israelis and Palestinians. Israelis are relieved that a process for ...
https://i.stuff.co.nz/science/300764379/nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-is-a-milestone-for-climate-clean-energy
Yeah baby!!
The game changer is getting closer
Breaking News: Nuclear Fusion is thirty years away! (and always has been)
A sparrow farts
After almost 70 years of effort, and $billions spent, in a world first, net energy gain has been achieved in the lab., but it is far far away from being practical.
As proof of principal, powerful lasers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories have managed to heat a deuterium pellet to instantaneous temperatures and pressures where fusion occurs, releasing greater energy than the energy needed to run the colossal lasers that achieved this feat. Unfortunately, none of the released fusion energy was in a form that could be used to power the lasers. (that energy still came from the grid).
Drawing power from the grid, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory can heat one deuterium pellet a day. A sparrow fart could generate more 'usable' energy. To get any usable net energy gain from this process they need to heat up to 50 deuterium pellets a second.
A nuclear fusion cheerleader interviewed this morning on TVNZ Breakfast said it will take 30 years of research and development to get over the engineering hurdles required to heat 50 pellets a second.
Whoop-de-doo.
The first time I mentioned fusion on the standard probably 8 years ago, I was basically laughed at because all the bright people here said it had always been 10 years away, now it's here it's proven watch capitalism pick the batten up and run .
Actually 4 years ago in 2018 unless you have changed handles.
I would have said that ‘it is always at least 20 years away’ to get to a proof of concept. In fact I did back in 2009. So 13 years on we haven’t further than proving more than we could get more energy out for a short time period.
Right now in the wake of todays news, I’d still say the same.
They haven’t even got close to recovering the energy cost to start the reaction
They don’t have anything like the ability to maintain a continuous reaction suitable for generating power.
Above all, they have no method to make it self-sustaining because they have no way to actually generate power off the excess energy released. There is no transfer mechanism from energy being released from fusion and an ability to use that to power the reaction, or to feed electricity to the grid.
They’d also have to figure out how to get their raw material costs down from hundreds of thousands of dollars down to pence (as one report put it). This is a engineering research breakthrough rather than an production engineering breakthrough. It isn’t even a scientific breakthrough – that was achieved in the 1950s when the release of energy from fusion agreed with the theoretical results.
It is of interest – yes. Worth getting excited about – no.
It is hard to see how without those power generating basics there could be any use from fusion within the time frame to do anything of use for a more immediate problems like dropping greenhouse gas emissions over the next 20 years to 2042.
Feels like I've banged in about it for longer .
I live this stuff should have been a scientist but the chip on my shoulder weighed me down in 4th form .
Still gonna get excited though 🤪
My first degree was a science degree. But by the end of second year the requirement to spend a further 8-10 years at university before I could get hired to actually do something was somewhat dispiriting.
It died completely except as a interest topic after I found out what the employment stats in your speciality were like for PhDs. I really don't have that level of myopia. I like working wide rather than really really narrow. Went into management because I was naturally good at kit, then sidetracked into programming because I liked the persistent learning curve and humility it induces, and these days (for some reason) I keep getting called an engineer in my job titles.
Totally agree. It will likely be a few more weeks before we see some sober, balanced assessment of the implications of this particular announcement. It is not yet clear to me whether it is the result of some fundamental new insight that can be scaled up rapidly, or it is more the culmination of existing programs finally making good on the net energy milestone. Too much hype, not enough detail.
I have always said fusion is a bright, shiny goal absolutely worth chasing; but frankly a small fraction of the monumental budgets being spent on it directed toward more immediately achievable goals in the Gen 4 nuclear fission space – would be money better spent.
Ultimately fusion is likely to be a power source if you need a large plant. Less of an issue with heavy metal radioactive waste with long (by human historical and even up geological) half lives.
But in many ways some of the micro-fusion reactor projects look more interesting than these progresses towards large fusion. But currently they often look optimistic because I get the sense that they're concentrating on the output above input and not so much on how to get a usable electricity source from it. But this article caught my eye if only because this level of engineering is way faster to determine results and issue than building PoC projects costing in their billions.
If you can do it at a micro level it probably gets easier to scale by addition. Which in essence is what the solar panels / battery systems are showing. We just don’t have particularly smart grids and probably won’t quite a while.
With fission, as I keep repeating, we have had engineers building new generation toys every few decades since the 1940s. They have continually neglected to planning in how to clean up their toys and the waste products behind themselves. I'm currently of the opinion that they should demonstrate that they can do really truly do that before letting rip on generating a whole new round of waste.
Which is a fair question. Personally I have taken a reasonably deep dive for a lay person into this topic, but I will attempt to keep this response concise. This is after all a political blog, not a nuclear engineering one.
Rather than type it all out here, I will reference this excellent link that gives a sound explanation of the problem and one obvious solution.
The critical insight is that our current nuclear waste repositories are actually a priceless fuel reserve. They arise merely because Gen 2 and 3 reactor technologies using solid fuel systems use barely 3% of the uranium fuel before the assembly must be discarded for purely for reasons of mechanical integrity. 97% of the uranium and energy potential is left sitting literally on the table.
There are a number of pathways to access this energy, and in the process burn up almost all of the more hazardous, long-lived photon emitting fission by-products. And reducing the volume of high-level waste by a factor of 100 and the storage timeframe to about 300 years. Which is highly achievable.
The more I learned about radiation, the less I came to fear it. The problem is that we have been told two fatal lies about it:
One is that it is possible to build reactors that have a vanishingly small chance of ever releasing any radiation. This is demonstrably untrue because we have had Three Miles Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima events that demonstrably contract this claim and undermine trust. And while I firmly believe Gen 4 or better reactors are inherently far less likely to suffer failure events, the number will never be zero.
But the other big lie is the Linear No Threshold (LNT) model. It told us that any amount of ionising radiation , no matter how small, was harmful and worse still the impact was cumulative in a linear fashion. For this reason the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) mandate was regulated – which has proved insanely expensive to implement. Despite the fact of the model being utter bullshit.
We live on a planet bathed in background radiation. Life likely needs radiation to evolve efficiently. More importantly it turns out living cells have very effective cellular repair mechanisms that work to repair DNA damage at levels remarkably higher levels of exposure than most people imagine. (Even more interestingly it is the rate of exposure that matters as well.) And for all conceivable nuclear power reactor accident scenarios, the magnitude and rate of ionising exposure is so low as to be well below the threshold of causing any harm whatsoever.
(Indeed many studies have shown that people fortunate enough to live in places with relatively high background levels may well have somewhat lower levels of cancers than normal. This reality stands in contradiction to all the activist scaremongering thrust on us for several generations now.)
Once you understand that radiation releases from nuclear power plants are not going to be cataclysmic, that the waste streams are not going to reduce entire continents to unlivable wastelands – then it is no longer necessary to pretend we can make perfect nuclear reactors or waste streams with zero radiation. Once we renounce the Cataclysm Lie, we no longer have any need for the patently false, trust sapping It Will Never Fail lie. An occasional release is tolerable. Now nuclear power can regulated much like any other highly beneficial, hazardous activity.
And we can get on with building a human future that does not stand in contradiction with a habitable planet.
But solar and offshore wind are now cheaper so why would we bother?
A reasonable question that I can respond to in three broad directions.
One is embedded in my comment above. Essentially the reason why current nuclear tech is more expensive on a nameplate basis than solar and wind is that we have loaded layers of unnecessary costs onto it. All analysis I have seen suggest we have made nuclear at least 3 times more expensive than needed in a pointless, futile effort to reduce radiation releases to levels far, far below the threshold where they might cause harm.
The other broad answer is that solar wind battery is only cheap on a nameplate basis – in most places in the world a combination of a very low capacity factor (less than 10%) and the necessary complexity and costs of integrating the inherent intermittency into the grid – has meant that everywhere it has been implemented so far, the cost of electricity to the consumer has risen dramatically. Germany vs France being a prime example.
Another factor rarely mentioned is the relatively short lifespans of solar wind installations. Being exposed to the elements these large scale installations are going to be doing well to survive 20 or so years. And then they need replacing at huge cost all over again. By contrast building a nuclear plant with an 80 yr life span is very doable.
But perhaps the biggest constraint in my mind is that so far we have been exploiting highly productive locations where there is lots of sunshine and wind. Most of the world, and especially close to where people live, is not like this. We are picking the low hanging fruit for the moment, but there is not an unlimited supply of it.
Yet globally the demand for high quality energy over this coming century can be reasonably projected to increase by a factor of 3 – 8 times our current total consumption depending on the assumptions you make. Yet so far all the new solar wind capacity we have installed so far, even when in ideal locations, is barely keeping pace with the rate at which we are closing nuclear plants – often for no good reason.
The idea that we can use renewables to both cheaply and fully supply our current total demand, much less our future requirements, is a very long stretch of the bow indeed.
This is how you lie if you're a idiot blogger like Jack with an agenda and no conscience.
First of all you put up a straw man alternate villain (coal ash) without any details and call it something (in this case 'toxic') without specifying how. Then minimise the danger of your villain with words like 'only 500 years' – ie roughly 20 generations of humans. While never actually show in what happens if either villain escapes.
Then you praise the incarceration of your villain without showing the relative levels of incarceration against a level of escape. Never talk about the effects relative or otherwise of either in the event that they do escape.
Then emphasise that your villain is stored wealth and should be left easily accessible for future generations. Jez I wonder how long it is before someone cuts open the little fence and breaks it out?
//—–
Doing a comparison to coal waste is kind of ridiculous. That gets buried and for good reason. Coal ash mostly gets buried in pits these days and has done for a long time. It only needs a decent hard to leach through flooring and walls and a reasonably hard to penetrate top cover. It isn't stacked high because that just makes it vulnerable. It doesn't need a fully leach proof separation because the idea is to diminish but not stop leachates.
But it simply isn't that toxic except for locally. There are mountains of coal ash already stored, it can be toxic because it contains small quantities of contamination of heavy metals like cadmium, mercury, arsenic, etc. This is only a problem when it gets leached or blown away too fast and concentrates.
Heavy metals are in all environments – the problem happens when they are too concentrated. The biosphere has long adapted to them. It is safer to not live near granite (a known source of heavy metals) or river flood plains (a known collector of heavy metals). But biological organisms are good at encapsulating and excreting them in low doses.
This isn't the case for heavy metals with any kind of strong radioactivity of any kind. That is because while they bind to biological matter like most heavy metals (and eventually get excreted) , they also irradiate and damage DNA, RNA, proteins, tissues, and the defence mechanisms around them even when wrapped up for excretion.
Id they leach into water or the biosphere, it isn't like holding them in a jar and running them against you most radio-protective organ of your body (the skin). Even the idiot Jack Devanney is aware of this…
The problem is that is exactly what happens when the containment is cracked and they leak into the water table or biosphere? Because they absolutely will. None of the containment systems have been tested for centuries of inattention
So how do you keep these exposed repositories safe for 500+ years. Stop something like a orbital crowbar in a late 21st century orbital war being used to cracking them open. Nuclear waste dumps are a really cool 'accident' deniability target in enemy territory.
Make sure that the next New Madrid earthquake doesn't tilt the hillside sideways. Massive continental crust earthquakes in 'stable' areas may not happen often but they are surface changing. You can literally find a nice rolling hill becoming a river bed in an instant.
That they can withstand being abraded in the sand storms blasting and eroding their exteriors for a century or so. etc
For some reason Jack doesn't describe any layered defence if the cylinder get cracked and stated to leach or abrade. That is because there isn't any. These are destroyable cylinders sitting out in the weather and the rain. Easily targetable looking at google earth or over the net.
It also doesn't account for things like the 140 tonnes of extracted weapons grade plutonium at Sellafield. Which has value in 5kg lots with a little bit if fast acting explosive and fast detonators.
Breeder reactors have been developed and looked at since the 1950s. What is notable about their waste is that it produces some real monster dangerous radioactives in its waste. Lower weight elements like radioactive strontium, cesium, and cadmium may not have the longer lives. What they do have is a strong ability to get bound into biological bodies and sit there irradiating them.
I'd suggest that you look less at the physics and more at the chemistry, biological, geological and historical aspects of nuclear waste disposal.
Shit happens, and containment like this or the 20m above sealevel at Sellafield at present simply aren't realistically designed for containment. They just designed for convenience by some really stupid engineers.
The best thing about renewable energy is that they are pretty damn safe if you look across 500+ years. Sure they can kill people when they fail. Dams drop. Windmills cartwheel downhill etc.. They can’t just keep poisoning the biosphere for 20+ human generations in the future when containment fails.
From a systems perspective and if you ignore the possibility of a bit of carnage in the short term. Renewable power systems are pretty much inherently safe over historical time. Nuclear power systems are the opposite.
The point of Delvany's comparison with coal ash was primarily to compare the relative volume of material produced:
That is scarcely a strawman – obviously the nature of the nuclear and coal waste streams are very different – but it is entirely valid to point out that the volume is also very different as well – by four orders of magnitude.
A volume that would be reduced by another two orders when properly consumed in the new Gen 4 reactors designed and operated for this purpose. Comparison with Gen 2 breeder reactors from the early days of the industry is not useful.
And besides I would not be so blase about coal ash waste.
Nor would I neglect to mention that air pollution from fossil fuelburning is reliably estimated by to cause the pre-mature death of about 10,000 people per day. Somehow we manage to live with this astonishing hazard, yet the vanishingly tiny risk of nuclear waste is amplified into a monster.
And if we have orbital crowbars capable of disrupting geologic repositories many hundreds of metres deep – then I would politely suggest we have bigger problems to worry about.
8 years ago it was ten years away?
And now it is 30 years away?
Talk about moving the goalposts.
And it gets worse.
From the link you supplied:
This alleged techno-fix to climate change some time in the future sounds like a lame excuse not to knuckle down in the here and now.
At the Wright Brother's stage but yes
Awesome! We'll be able to crank on! Monorail through Fiordland National Park!
we can also get much more efficient at strip mining the seas of life.
And BUILDING MOAR ROADS.
all good then I guess.
We'll be able to go faster, further and more often, move more stuff, have twice as much!
We're biggering and biggering!
If it embiggens the monorail, it must be good!
This greatly lauded proof of principal experiment is an excuse to continue heating up the climate by burning fossil fuels in the hope that we will be saved from total biosphere collapse at the 11th hour by the miraculous advent of this technology.
Good luck with that.
Solar, wind, electric, hydrogen and now this breakthrough, I would of thought you would be excited and way less sad sack about it.
Monorail from q town to milford, shit that's a good idea. 👍
You might want to regress to an arboreal life my leafy freind buy we don't,
Imagine a clean energy system that could desalinate so much see water we could green desert ares.
I want to progress to a life that's founded upon the principles displayed by managed woodlands, yes.
I recognise that you don't, but that's because you haven't yet understood what it means.
Greening "desert areas" must and will happen – then we'll be able to build the most wonderful Los Vegas imaginable!! Go us!!!!
Bolsonaro’s legacy.
https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/1602224120158191616
The Herald heading today has Luxon reckoning that the PM's "arrogant prick" comment is telling. I agree with him. It's telling me what I already know.
I feel this will be a plus for the PM, as it breaks her sometimes tiring, goody-good head-prefect persona, to show a more usual human response underneath. The apology was spot-on, slightly toothy. A bit more of the relatable Jacinda, please.
what would the reaction have been if Luxton had called Jacinda a arrogant cow ????
Some on The left would milk that cow as hard as you are now
If this is the story you're referring to, it's yet another example of Luxon being … well, just a little bit weird. He talks and keeps talking and ends up saying things like:
"David was my neighbour for many years. He was a very good neighbour I can tell you that. He was very well behaved, kept his music under control."
OK. Music. That's the issue. Jolly good. What are you on about, man?
In all seriousness, the more Luxon talks the worse for National. His mouth runs away from him, he has no verbal discipline. He’s a gaffe-aholic, and in an election campaign he has to talk a lot more. Good.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nationals-luxon-says-pm-jacinda-arderns-arrogant-prick-david-seymour-comment-sign-of-pressure/DMR5WHD46BF23LXM7O3FO5J2VE/
Totally, the guy's an idiot. The only trouble is that too few NZers see it. They love the fact 'National's back' with 'a man as their leader'. And it looks like there ain't a thing Labour can do about it.
I don't think it's as bad as that. The details of polling won't make headlines, but they are quite revealing. The latest poll tells us that Luxon is negative 29 with undecided voters.
Right now National is 'Other'. People are dissatisfied for various reasons, and the Opposition reap the benefit. The 'Not Government' party.
But the more people learn about the alternative PM, the less impressed they are. They want … another 'Other'.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/national-and-act-in-government-on-latest-poll/GQ3QPZBNUJAQRKEEFDXAUPMW6I/
However, how many of those 'undecideds' will get out and vote? If they like Ardern, but don't like her government's policies – it seems to me that they're more likely to just stay home.
I agree that there is still an opportunity for Labour to turn this around. But it's going to take some radical pruning of unpopular policies (and politicians).
Thank you Observer for making me laugh out loud in a Spanish motorway cafe …the locals think I am a weirdo like Luxon too.
it was fun watching dave seemore get squelched by the speaker yesterday. eemore wanted AR to sanction the PM over something somebody had heard on the radio and rung him up about. no dice dave. hansard is the record and poo must be raised at the time.
I do hope lprent is working on a plugin which notifies somebody in David's orbit by text every time Seymour's name comes up in a comment here.
Does this mean he had his phone on in class?
nope. But I did have a flash of yellow when I read that.
What's the world coming to when people are prepared to threaten people with a machete all for a bottle of Fanta and an packet of chips!
Watch: Machete-wielding thief flees from Upper Hutt dairy fog cannon – NZ Herald
That report shows you how so much of the crime "debate" is completely missing the point. Rhetoric versus reality.
Look at what happened (allegedly, we're obliged to say). Man commits (potentially) aggravated robbery. Offence has potential sentence of 10 years' jail.
He then returns to the same shop, even after the alarm has gone off. He is (not surprisingly) caught, minutes later. He does all this for no material gain.
Very high risk, very low reward, and nobody who thinks about it would attempt such a crime. So the "deterrent" is totally irrelevant. Stupid people do stupid crimes. Issues like drugs, alcohol etc may be a factor too.
Crimes like this would happen even if we had capital punishment for stealing Fanta.
Aggravated robbery is a maximum of 14 years if that's where it ends up, but agree with your general points. On the capital punishment point, it wasn't unknown in earlier times in England and Great Britain for pickpockets to be publicly executed (usually by hanging), and for other pickpockets to be active in the crowd at the public execution.
Watched the Zelensky address to parliament this morning. Good speeches all round bar one. Yes, David Seymour. He used the occasion to pour contempt on the $3 million dollars of extra aid announced by Jacinda Ardern. Ignored the fact we have given nearly $60 million in aid of one sort or another and we are a very small country in the scheme of things.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/480691/ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelensky-addresses-new-zealand-parliament
Living up to his newly found fame as an "arrogant prick".
I just keep thinking of him as rather strategically stupid.
The one bit of amusement I have if National finally win the election in 2026 (maybe 2023 – but it seems unlikely) is just how useless the prick will be at combining the demands of his caucus with what is possible to negotiate with a larger coalition partner.
He really isn't a Prebble or Hide or even a Banks. It is hard to see him managing both sides of that management role of being small party within government with a rather diverse pile of hungry fringe nut-bars with varying objectives to satisfy.
Might get mocked, but after a move he's my electorate mp. (was in Mt Roskill previously). Anywhere I ran into a bit of an issue and contacted his office for some help. He went into bat for me via a phone call and letter and had my issue sorted quick smart. Will be weird but he's earnt my electorate vote.
Realistically, that has to be his road to retaining the electorate, being a good electorate MP, but it's always good to hear about it actually happening.
I do hear anecdotally, that he's a very good electorate MP. Door knocks regularly. Turns up at events. Goes in to bat with the bureaucracy for his constituents.
As was Peter Dunne.
I believe Anderton was, as well (don't have direct knowledge of either of them).
I think it's something that's often overlooked. And, is, actually, a really important part of being an electorate MP. Some MPs are really good at it. Others are just not.
Which of the current crop of MPs do you think are good electorate ones? I’m hearing good things about Swarbrick – which will certainly help cement her hold on Auckland Central.
Everything I've heard in Christchurch is that he was excellent, as is Dr Megan Woods. Poto Williams is also an excellent electorate MP.
Yes, you tend to hear about the 'local' ones – not so much the ones in other cities.
Standardistas, I’m thinking about putting up periodic current affairs debate topic posts, short intro and links from me and some guidelines for debate. On days when there are no new posts.
Haven’t talked with the other authors yet, but hoping for some suggestions from commenters for a name. eg
Today’s Debate: [name of topic].
where ‘today’s debate’ is replaced with something catchier.
hit me with your good ideas.
Circadian Discourse:
clever but probably a bit obscure for a regular post title
Fair. If it's a daily post, synonyms for daily are quite obscure, but debate has a few options that people will have heard of. Discourse was the one I posted, but even something like discussion is fine. That said, daily debate is alliterative, so it has that going for it.
I am a fan of alliteration.
Hot Topic of the Day
Hot Potatoe of the Day
Today's Special Topic
Today's Noteworthy Topic (TNT)
Stuff not even bothering to hide it any more:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130757871/christopher-luxon-the-statesman-emerges-as-the-ukraine-war-beams-into-parliament
Shilling for a strongly disliked oppo leader is as pathetic as it is boring.
That article/opinion is so blatantly pro-National that it would almost warrant a complaint to the Media Council (if there is such a body)!
I listened to Luxy's speech and thought it just stuck it's head above the mediocre!
It is also yet another failure by a journalist to ask the obvious question: "What do the words actually mean? What are the implications here?"
He provided some insight into his view of the world in light of the war, advocating for muscular militaries and criticising a “weak” United Nations. … (says) “But this war has proved that when you have to fight for what you believe in, you need an army, weapons, ammunition, and friends to help defend your interests.”
Luxon is calling for a stronger military. That means spending more money. Taxpayers' money. Now that is a position that can be debated and/or defended but Luxon is never asked to.
He says the same thing about health, education, transport, police/justice … everything really. Do more = invest more = spend more.
I don't mind having an opposition that wants to spend more. But they claim to be wanting to spend less. It's a fraud and yet Luxon is rarely challenged on it.
I concluded he didn't write it. Someone with much more speech composing flair than him wrote it. But he delivered it well.