Open mike 16/03/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, March 16th, 2023 - 76 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

76 comments on “Open mike 16/03/2023 ”

  1. Sanctuary 1

    Frustrated by the PMs quick action, a bored press gallery is going to go on and on and about it to try to get Nash's scalp aren't they? The MSM is full of louche and unserious horse race reporters.

    Nash is a bit of a dick, but seriously – who outside the press gallery and the opposition thinks this is still a big issue since he was swiftly fired from his marquee portfolio? Hell, Hawkes Bay is the epicentre of the conspiracy theory laden hang 'em law and order brigade, ringing the police commissioner to complain about the courts being soft of crimes probably gains him votes.

    • tsmithfield 1.1

      Didn't Maurice Williamson resign from being a cabinet minister for a very similar offence? As it stands, what has he really suffered for his behaviour? No drop in pay or perks etc. He probably will be given some other job that has nowhere near as much pressure as minister of Police. So, what are the real consequences for Nash?

      • Tony Veitch 1.1.1

        Didn't Judith use her taxpayer funded trip to China to advocate for her husband's business – and suffered no consequences?

        • Robert Guyton 1.1.1.1

          That sorry saga dragged on and on and on. Nash's was quickly cauterised.

          • Peter 1.1.1.1.1

            I remember brazen lying and misrepresentation. From the Justice Minister no less.

            "A cup of tea … on the way to the airport," turned out to be something more than a little bit different than that.

            It's funny how the mob demanding any stupid Labour MP doing something stupid to be hung drawn and quartered, never to be seen again, are so humane when it comes to their own.

      • Robert Guyton 1.1.2

        Losing a role he relished. Public exposure for unprofessional behaviour. Bullying from Opposition politicians.

        Those sorts of real consequences.

      • Incognito 1.1.3

        Didn't Maurice Williamson resign from being a cabinet minister for a very similar offence?

        Nope, only if you look highly superficially. Williamson’s offence involved the infamous Donghua Liu, the political party donor extraordinaire and the same person who was given NZ citizenship against official advice after lobbying by MP Maurice Williamson.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Williamson#Suspensions

        https://natlib.govt.nz/records/33689376

        Your judgment seems a little clouded if you cannot tell the two apart.

      • Sanctuary 1.1.4

        Speaking of old Maurice, did anyone hear the hapless mayor boomer on RNZ this morning? I would suggest a listen, it is quite enlightening. Brown laid out his ideological starting point in as clear a fashion as you could expect and it was all done in his usual matrix of rambling, nauseating boomer victimhood.

        At a practical level his solutions are peek boomer as well – complain about it, see dragons everywhere, rule out every realistic option to deal with it that might cost him anything, then demand the poor, least privileged and disadvantaged carry the cost. You can hardly blame him – it was a virtuoso performance of the consequences of the collapse of local democracy. Here is a clearly inept man well out his depth, elected to represent the narrow interests of the 15% of the electorate that voted for him and knowing damn well who his constituency is. His razor gang consists of a coterie of similarly wildly over confident, superannuated yesterday's men from the wealthy side of town who are also determined to take us firmly back to the slash and burn days of the 1980s and 90s.

        • newsense 1.1.4.1

          Someone should post on or guest Bernard Hickey’s take- it’s a load of hooey.

          In fact such a load of poisonous hooey he’s brought in an ex-tobacco exec to sell it to us.

        • Anne 1.1.4.2

          Never again will I listen to that ignorant, simplistic red-necked dinosaur. Not only is he inarticulate to the point of senility but his cognitive dissonance is profound.

          Example: he justified not including Golf clubs in his council cost-slashing exercise because we need green spaces and they serve the purpose of acting as flood plains and that protects the houses from being flooded.

          Does that mean all the other 'free to all members of the public green spaces' don't count as green spaces? Sorry South Auckland, West Auckland, we're cutting your amenities because you don't matter but we must look after the elites (who he thinks he belongs to) cos they do matter.That sums up his philosophy.

          He's "gonna be tough because that's what the 180,000 people who voted for me want me to do" he said. Stuff the other 500,000 plus who didn't vote for him or didn't vote at all.

        • AB 1.1.4.3

          Climate-change induced damage and the costs associated with it are going to terrify everyone. There will be a lot of raising the drawbridge and frantically protecting whatever assets you have. People will protect themselves and be prepared to sacrifice others to do so. Given who votes and who doesn't, Brown may well become the new default for an electable local body politician.

          It is a painful irony that Brown's backers – who as small-state, free-market utopians have stalled effective action on climate change – now get to use the effects of climate change to further advance their project.

    • Muttonbird 1.2

      Nash is being done because he informally tried to influence the sentence of a person who had guns illegally.

      Normally, the Nats and their fellow travellers would applaud this type of intervention, and you can imagine Mark Mitchell making dozens of these types of calls every week.

      But not in this case. In this case the offender was a white farmer, not a brown gang member…

  2. Tony Veitch 2

    All power to the teachers for their strike today!

    • Adrian Thornton 2.1

      "All power to the teachers for their strike today!"….+5 from this household!!

    • PB 2.2

      And don't forget the Primary School Principals – often overlooked and forgotten but doing a job that most would run from at some speed.

  3. Adrian Thornton 3

    Talking about The Guardian…here is the sort of reactionary shit that they are well known for on the progressive Left…

    Guardian Columnist’s Latest Attack on ‘Heretics’

    "George Monbiot has been regularly smearing icons of the progressive left, writes Jonathan Cook. Now, it seems, it is comedian Russell Brand’s turn to come under his scalpel."

    …but then again, why anyone on the actual Left would trust The Guardian (and BBC) after they completely exposed themselves as being nothing more than the trusted guard dogs of the establishment status quo, is beyond me…all one can assume is that people who keep going back to the sources and defenders of establishment power for much of their political and geo-political information..must mostly support this current hegemonic ideology of free market Liberalism.

  4. Sanctuary 4

    That article you linked to is so dumb I felt my IQ dropping after reading just the first sentence. No wonder you've got some idiotic views if that is the sort of bullshit you are lapping up.

    Brand was never a leftist – he is just another superficially suave fraud, one of the new type of reactionary, conspiracy theory drenched snake oil grifter that preys on the guillable that has proliferated and prospered online – Andrew Tate, Jordan Petersen, the list goes on and on. Basically that are not half as clever as they think they are and they get an audience of the like minded. And Greenwald is just completely bonkers.

    • Incognito 4.1

      Messengers shooting at other messengers is such a mug’s game and simply a variation of angry (old white) men shouting at clouds. It is a game AT loves to play here, in a compulsive way.

      For completion’s sake, here’s a link to Monbiot’s opinion piece, which reads like an essay on the cult of personality and identity politics. I hope nobody will pop a vein in their brain as a result of reading it.

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/10/russell-brand-politics-public-figures-responsibility

      • Robert Guyton 4.1.1

        I'm strongly in agreement with Monbiot, on a number of issues. Having watched Brand for years myself, I experienced the same discomfort Monbiot describes. It doesn't surprise me at all that this fracturing has appeared at the level of popular commentators.
        I feel the same about Eisenstein 🙂

        • AB 4.1.1.1

          Agree. I very early on decided that Brand was an unserious clown with a tendency to be all over the shop in ridiculous ways – because he had no consistent underlying view of why things are the way they are. I've ignored the fool for years and it's no surprise to hear that he has become even sillier over time – because he lacks any sort of a baseline conceptual framework, there are no restraints on him going down all manner of rabbit holes.

          • Francesca 4.1.1.1.1

            I find Monbiot's stance on other journalists questionable in the light of his utterly limp and gutless non stance on Assange, and the assault on press freedom his case highlights

            I find Jonathan Cook a far more courageous and honest journalist….read his essay on intellectual cleansing part 2 to see how it works in the media these days

            https://www.medialens.org/2008/intellectual-cleansing-part-2/

            • Incognito 4.1.1.1.1.1

              So, the ‘damning’ critique of Monbiot is that he’s not been fighting the right or most just and appropriate cause? And Monbiot is to drop writing about “soil loss” because those same critics deem this less of a priority? Let’s not talk about silt ever again!

              • Francesca

                I find Monbiot on the environment excellent .I don't think he's so credible on other subjects.

                That he can discuss journalism and the threats to it without mentioning Assange is pretty telling in my book

                • Incognito

                  I don’t know what your book is telling you, only you know.

                  • Francesca

                    Don't fuss yourself over hypothetical books Incognito, I think you know as well as I do .When discussing threats to journalism, Assange would be a spectacularly egregious example of what happens to a journalist who publishes truthful fact based pieces . Taking a figure of speech literally to try and score points is at the lower end of debate.

                    Would "in my opinion " be more suited to your style guide?

                    • Incognito

                      I’m nonplussed by you telling us from your hypothetical book about one person who doesn’t write about another person because that’s not in his hypothetical book [of opinions]. Do carry on with your virtue signalling debate. BTW, my style guide is F7.

          • bwaghorn 4.1.1.1.2

            I've always thought he was just a it of light entertainment

            • Robert Guyton 4.1.1.1.2.1

              Brand?

              • weka

                On Brand or off Brand?

                • Robert Guyton

                  Ha!

                  Off.

                  Loved his energy earlier-on, but the whole, "I was a hedonist who enjoyed every pleasure, but now I'm a Buddhist … irks me 🙂

                  • Adrian Thornton

                    "I was a hedonist who enjoyed every pleasure, but now I'm a Buddhist … irks me"…me too, personally, he has always annoyed me, so I have never really watched or listened to him much…but I know enough about him to know that his main crime as far as the cult of the Liberal establishment goes…is pointing out, correctly, that the so called left media and right media are one of the same….as I have already mentioned, the Liberal media's destruction of Corbyn and Assange has proved this to be a fact in the UK…while all the US MSM is so fucked that only an idiot could take anything spewed out by it on matters of importance seriously….loss of narritive control is the thing both the Liberal and Right media and their supporters fear the most.

  5. tsmithfield 5

    I agree that pay for both teachers and nurses should be a lot more competitive and better conditions. That is called meeting the market since we are competing with Australia for those resources.

    So far as teachers go, I think there needs to be much more fundamental changes. From what I have seen, the quality of teachers in NZ often isn't very good, with a lot of them having major issues in the areas they are supposed to be teaching.

    So, I think the pay structure needs to be sufficient to attract people gifted in teaching to the role, rather than something better paying such as accounting etc. And, I think. the teacher training system needs to be setting much higher standards for those who aspire to be teachers. It shouldn't just be a cop-out profession for people not bright enough to make it elsewhere.

    And finally, there needs to be some way to measure performance, and reward for that. I am not talking about grades or similar. But many other professions work this out, so it shouldn't be impossible.

    • pat 5.1

      Education in NZ has a multitude of issues that need addressing , some in house but many from without.

      Entry level pay is an obvious barrier to choosing education as a career, but the teachers I know appear more concerned about MLEs, behavioural issues and a dearth of support in addressing them.

      • tsmithfield 5.1.1

        Yes, I agree. We have become rotten to the core, which is a major worry. The attendance stats for the third term last year is extremely troubling. If this continues, we will end up with a generation where a large percentage are too stupid for anything useful.

        And the level of family dysfunction leading to a breakdown in the regard for education, and disruptive behaviour of students in class makes it very difficult for teachers. So, there are multiple factors. Having said that, very gifted teachers often have ways of inspiring students from difficult backgrounds. So, getting the best people into the role is a key component of improving the system.

        • Belladonna 5.1.1.1

          Just in terms of the attendance stats. I had occasion to meet with the headmaster, deputy and dean in relation to an issue with my teen, recently.
          In the course of which, I asked how the school was following up his recent unjustified absence. [Unjustified in the MoE language = you are not at school, and the excuse you have provided is not acceptable. It's not illness or medical appointments, or external approved activities – which are coded differently]

          The answer was: They only followed up when unjustified absences fell to the 50-60% range. I pointed out, that one very quick way to encourage the 80-90% kids to fall to 50% was to give the strong message that the school didn't care whether the kids are there or not. And that they should put some more effort into catching the kids at the top of the cliff, and intervening when they have a greater chance of success; rather than the ambulance at the bottom, when school avoidance has become habitual.

          I doubt that it's shifted their policy one iota.

      • Stephen 5.1.2

        That’s the issue for me. In my Year 7 class of 27, we have; 2 with ASD, 2 with ADHD, 2 severely dyslexic, and 3 with various degrees of anxiety. In addition the range of abilities goes from Year 3/4 level to Year 10.

        The curriculum stuff is no problem. Endless resources, both paper and online.

        For the other issues our formal training has been the best part of nonexistent. Most of us rely on commonsense and parenting skills. Tricky if you’re young and newly qualified.

        Smaller class sizes, decent PD, and salary keeping up with inflation.

        That’s all I want.

        • Robert Guyton 5.1.2.1

          Stephen – I was like you, once upon a time…

          Back then, we didn't recognise adhd so much, nor dyslexia etc. Frontier stuff 🙂

          I had, at worst, 32 students 🙂

          "Smaller class sizes, decent PD, and salary keeping up with inflation.

          That’s all I want."

          100% support!

          • Stephen 5.1.2.1.1

            Thanks Robert. I’ve had 31 before. A real struggle to engage with all of them regularly.

        • Shanreagh 5.1.2.2

          My sister is a gifted secondary school teacher who her found her niche teaching what they called special needs classes. Before that she was regularly in huge classes with the proportions of 'needful' students being in the proportions you are stating Stephen. Even having found this niche she left after 5/6 years because the powers that be were always quick to cut back the resources, loading up the classes so she had large classes with pupils with special needs.

          My niece her daughter teaches in a large combined primary school class of around 40-55 students where they tried to have a class with two teachers teaching in the same space. After just about going batty the two teachers moved whatever surplus furniture they could locate, to partition the class to stop the noise. Totally and utterly frowned on as co-located teaching was the new way. The new set-up with the surplus furniture partition is not ideal but a better teaching environment than before.

          "Smaller class sizes, decent PD, and salary keeping up with inflation.

          That’s all I want."

          Was certainly my sister's plea. I'd imagine my niece would be quite keen on the smaller class sizes and a more permanent but movable if need be partitions

    • Robert Guyton 5.2

      "And finally, there needs to be some way to measure performance, and reward for that. I am not talking about grades or similar. But many other professions work this out, so it shouldn't be impossible."

      Completely wrong – you don't understand the teaching world.

      • Tony Veitch 5.2.1

        Ah, performance pay! The way to divide staffrooms and effectively nullify any collective actions by teachers to improve conditions for themselves and their charges!

        (Forgive me, I nearly said "clients.")

        Tomorrow's Schools – drafted by a grocer – one of the great failed experiments in NZ educations (along with National Standards)!

  6. weka 6

    Post up about the teachers strike. Feel free to use it as a general discussion post on the strike.

    .https://thestandard.org.nz/the-greens-backing-teachers-demands/

  7. Ad 7

    So if NZ GDP is now through the floor,

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131512200/gdp-drops-06-economy-on-the-skids

    the NZ Current Account Deficit is now at the widest level in our history at a whopping 8.9% of GDP,

    big projects like CRL going up by $$$,

    and our new international liability position is still up there at $192.9 billion, are we expecting even more on the policy bonfire before Treasury can stabilise an actual budget due in May?

    Maybe they delay the budget to early June to give a bit more time to analyse all our negative financial news?

    I'd sure hate to see all of the above amount to a credit downgrade – like we got after Christchurch.

    • SPC 7.1

      The GDP figure is within our control – creating a recession to lower and even reduce GDP based on it being the traditional way to reduce inflation (even if the causes are not simply domestic demand, but international, weather related and structural – lack of workers and yet lack of housing for migrants).

      The Current Account deficit is related to our property speculation fueled economy (flow of offshore savings into domestic mortgages/property values beyond local wage and productivity levels). With each local boom binge this goes out of control and we have the corrective bust – it speaks to a failure to both bring down building cost and focus investment into productivity improvement and the export sector (also domestic services) of the economy.

    • Ad-you are right, the current account deficit is worrying. Basically we are living beyond our means and borrowing massively to pay for his.

      Inflows from immigration help to offset this as the people who come to live here from the better off countries usually bring their assets with them over time.

      The GDP is still growing 2.2% year on year, so at least at the moment, is not as big a problem.

      • SPC 7.2.1

        Last years growth rate was 2.2%. It's not current growth as indicated by the 0.6% decline in the last quarter.

        Only net inflows of those with assets assist, a net outflow going to Oz with their sold property cash is otherwise.

  8. SPC 8

    So after a 0.6% decline in GDP in December and further OCR rises since then, and the certainty that the March quarter (floods etc) will show another decline – thus the technical requirement to determine a recession being met. The "market" still expects a further OCR rise, 0.25% rather than the expected 0.5%.

    It is well known that OCR rises to contain inflation often overshoot to cause a recession. But once that stage is reached the OCR rises end.

    However it appears the "market" expects stagflation ("structural" issues being the cause rather than too much domestic demand), thus continuing inflation despite (artificially suppressed demand caused) recession.

    This is because of a neo-liberal bias to protect the real value of historic asset/wealth from being undermined by inflation. The same bias is why we have no CGT, stamp duties, wealth taxation or estate taxation.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gdp-data-expected-to-show-economy-in-reverse/2TULEGCPYBGQBK3UXVNVEJAVCY/

    • SPC 8.1

      What we need is a period of inflation with compensating wage increases to restore a connection between wages and property values.

      That is one way to undo the damage done by the RBG when he pumped money through banks and reduced equity requirements for property investors at the same time (resulting in an increase in the number of multiple owner landlords).

      Our rate of home ownership is now below that of the UK and still falling, we are at risk of becoming a class based society (children of property owners who will own and those who are not and will not).

  9. Adrian 9

    Maybe if we got all the Road Cone Shifters into productive jobs GDP would quickly level out. There are too many jobs that have only recently been created that are not exactly productivity enhancing. Yes of course we need to take care of safety but last week I drove past almost half a kilometre of road cones on both side of a road and the job was 100 or so metres down an adjoining street. WTF. Human Resources jobs for another could be cut back to a tenth of existing for the same result.

    • Belladonna 9.1

      Sometimes I think it is only the manufacture and sale of roadcones (at $50 a pop) is the only thing which is keeping the NZ economy going!

      The numbers used are astounding!

    • weka 10.1

      how big is their garden? How many nights do they have people in the airbnb?

      I'm good with charging for watering lawns, but people need to be able to plant trees and grow food, even flowers. In a dry climate 700L water/day isn't a lot.

      • weka 10.1.1

        Central Otago average daily usage is 586. Not hard to understand why.

        https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/being-mindful-water-use

          • joe90 10.1.1.1.1

            Water isn't free. The infrastructure required to deliver potable water costs an arm and a leg yet these entitled boomers use twice the city average and refuse to pay their share

            And thinking that trotting off to the press with their tale of woe was a good idea outs them as fucking idiots, too.

            • weka 10.1.1.1.1.1

              of course it's not free. The debate is whether we have a user pays model, or a collectively paid model, or a hybrid.

              Have a go at the couple (I'm sure they can reduce their water use and/or afford the bill) but bear in mind their age peers who live off super and still grow some of their own food out of necessity. And what might happen under RW governance.

        • Robert Guyton 10.1.1.2

          Xeriscape for the win!

          • weka 10.1.1.2.1

            that would help! Still need to encourage people to grow food and plant trees.

            Metering water is a blunt instrument, we need something a bit more elegant as well.

            • Robert Guyton 10.1.1.2.1.1

              DB Brown is the person to ask about growing food crops/trees etc. without supplementary watering.

              It can be and should be, widely practiced.

              • weka

                it should. And the people without those skills/tech need to be able to water their gardens and trees to stop them dying.

                Telling people in a dry climate to save water above 700L/ day isn't quite the right framing.

              • PsyclingLeft.Always

                DB Brown for sure. An Informed and Informative person !

            • Shanreagh 10.1.1.2.1.2

              Metering water is a blunt instrument, we need something a bit more elegant as well.

              I agree. Not only is it a blunt instrument but it is an inequitable instrument.

              One of the truisms about equity is this

              'Treating unequal people equally is inequitable.'

              So large families, families where there are family members who need constant showers and/or use of washing machines use more water in their day to day lives, just to exist. We should not penalise them by charging for every drop of water they use.

              The Chch model with its allowance is fairer than a model where there is no allowance.

              The argument is about the size of the allowance.

              Where the Chch model seems unfair is that it is a hybrid system in that not all are bound by it. Eventually it will cover all residents once meters are widespread. This seems inherently unfair to me and means that some will be paying and others not just by accident of geography or pipes.

              Probably it would have been fairer to concentrate on getting all the meters in place then charged. KCDC did this, the only good thing about their operation of the water charging regime. .

      • Craig H 10.1.2

        It is proposed for increase to 900L from 1 July in the annual plan (source – pg 19) and from 1 July 2024 will be taken over by the new Southern water service entity, so will be interesting to see how that plays out next year.

      • Pingao 10.1.3

        In my experience of living in Christchurch for over 20 years (I moved away at the end of 2020), Christchurch people think water is free as it is not charged for separately in rates. As a result people have been cutting their lawns ultra short and then leaving the sprinkler on – sometimes in the middle of the day watering the footpath as much as the verge (observed during my Postie incarnation).

        The pure potable groundwater (one of the purest waters in the world, my plumbing tutor said it was the 4th purest) was so good it was untreated until recently.

        There is very high demand in summer which is when the city struggles to pump enough water to keep up (my understanding). One way to manage this is to put a price on water. This was effective in Auckland as when charges were initially applied, Auckland used 10% less water (comment from Tim Davie hydrologist during a postgrad lecture).

    • tsmithfield 10.2

      I agree with the principle of charging for what is used.

      However, in the Christchurch situation it is a bit fraudulent IMO. They had supposedly identified homeowners that were "high users" who were levied for the water charge.

      However, the CCC provided a tool to check if whether you were a high user or not. The thing is that it was possible to key in any address and see whether a particular property was a high user relative to other properties. Nearly every address I looked at was a "high user". So, it looked to me that the CCC was being quite deceptive in its categorisation to drive up the revenue grab.

      • weka 10.2.1

        what's the CCC definition of high user?

        • Pingao 10.2.1.1

          The high user rate definition is on the CCC website and is at a rate above the average daily user rate in Christchurch. Edit: The average household user rate is currently 700 litres per day so above this would trigger a high user charge.

          Search for CCC water user charges (can't post links on my mobile sorry).

    • Graeme 10.3

      A slightly less sensational follow up piece in Stuff / Press this morning.

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/131514570/household-in-christchurch-faces-1600-bill-for-using-too-much-water

      The largest consumer got a bill for $1600,

      …property churned through about 12,300 litres of water each day between October and January …

      However, the Christchurch City Council says it is likely the property has a leak and the bill will be reimbursed if the leak is repaired.

      There's three sides to high water use, leaks, prats, (both are a spectrum), and people who need / want more water and are happy to pay for it.

      Leaks can be insidious things that can cost a considerable amount of time and resources to find and remedy. 12,000 litres / day (8.3 litres / minute) is quite a small flow, so a quiet hose, or a continuous dripper system. If it's leakage you could chew through well over $1600 trying to find it, and may not be just one leak.

      The prats think water is an entitlement, as much as they want, and cost socialised oner the whole community. Generally they are retired, pakeha, and in big scheme not that wealthy, just think they are. They would vote right and are the ones who get off their bikes about water meters. They probably bought shares in the power companies when they were sold off, and strangely would buy shares in any water infrastructure utilities that may be floated. Without saying it they hate 3Waters because it might take that opportunity away. I've got / had a few of them on the schemes I manage and have spent a long time getting inside their heads. It ebbs and flows but slowly the world moves forward.

      Then there's those that understand that infrastructure to supply water has initial and ongoing costs and are happy to pay for those in proportion to their demand on the system. These people are generally engaged, co-operative and a delight to work with. They are also the vast majority of the people I deal with.

  10. Stephen D 11

    Pablo putting things into perspective again.

    https://www.kiwipolitico.com/2023/03/the-return-to-big-wars/

    “It remains to be seen how long New Zealand’s foreign policy elite fully comprehend what their military commanders are telling them about what is on the strategic horizon. They may well still cling to the idea that they can trade preferentially with the PRC, stay out of Russian inspired conflicts and yet receive full security guarantees from its Anglophone partners. But if they indeed think that way, they are in for an unpleasant surprise because one way or another NZ will be pulled into the next Big War whether it likes it or not.”

    • SPC 11.1

      I would hope he understands that the purpose of containment (Cold War) is to prevent a Big War, not start one.

      And until any war with China, the USA, UK, Canada, Oz, EU, South Korea, Japan and ASEAN will all be trading with China.

      All "full security guarantees" means is there is being seen as one of the team or not being seen as part of the team (and implication as to being in the loop on intelligence and security briefings*). For example there is the Quad and at one point Rudd pulled Oz out of the Quad. Of course the current Labour PM of Oz has gone Quad + with the basing of foreign subs (UK and USA) in Perth – freedom of the seas and all that.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue

      *there is an undercurrent of being at risk of Rainbow Warrior events or mysterious IT attacks if not under protection, fear and gang security patches.

      PS “stay out of Russian inspired conflicts”, NATO has not acted because no member was attacked (and the nuke armed status of the cornered rat state of Putin) and the UN has not acted because of the UNSC vetoes of Russia and China.

    • aj 11.2

      What he has left unsaid is the terrifying logic that to get to the outcomes described below (short – to the point – overwhelming force – break the enemies capabilities in the shortest time) the use of nuclear weapons are even more likely to be used.

      One thing needs to be understood about Big Wars. The objective is that they be short and to the point. That is, overwhelming force is applied in the most efficient way in order to break the enemy’s physical capabilities and will to fight in the shortest amount of time. Then a political outcome is imposed. What military leaders do not want is what is happening to the Russians in Ukraine: bogged down by a much smaller force fighting on home soil with the support of other large States that see the conflict as a proxy for the real thing. The idea is get the fight over with as soon as possible, which means bringing life back to the notion of “overwhelming force,” but this time against a peer competitor.

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