And then one day along will come quantum computing.
Humanity has been making gods for thousands of years, and this may be the one to truly rule – though in America they are trying to build a hybrid and call its emergence a millennial realm. The deep state has been preparing for this capability of "oversight" management of the civilian population for some decades at a lesser tech level on a subset of the human population (psy ops).
By the time half of the New Zealand population reaches age 65 having never owned their home, that will be the least of their worries. A society order capable of managing inequality, not mitigating it, is being built. The prosperity gospel made manifest – for some.
John F. Kennedy's Inaugural Address [20 Jan 1961]
To that world assembly of sovereign states: the United Nations. . . our last best hope in an age where the instruments of war have far outpaced the instruments of peace, we renew our pledge of support. . .to prevent it from becoming merely a forum for invective. . .to strengthen its shield of the new and the weak. . . and to enlarge the area in which its writ may run.
Peak Convenience [July 2008]
I know people who would circle the Walmart parking lot 10 times before they would walk from a parking spot that isn’t within 50 feet of the front door.
Since then (2008), spaceship Earth has gained another 1.3 billion human passengers.
For people commenting on the support or lack thereof for Palestinians in surrounding countries, it might be helpful to reflect on the ethnic and religious divides in the area.
Palestinians are Arab and Shia Muslim. Other countries that have Shia Arab majorities are Azerbaijan, Bahrain &Iraq. Countries with a significant Shia Arab population are Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. These are the countries where the most support for Palestine is found, although Azerbaijan is in the middle of a war and Iraq is still rebuilding after the end of the two wars it's just gone through.
Iran is Shia Muslim, but they are Persian, not Arab so they're sympathetic but don't want to get involved.
All the other countries around Israel are Arab and Sunni Muslim. Again, sympathetic to fellow Arabs, but Egypt taking refugees would be like Irish Catholics taking in some fleeing Protestants 80 years ago.
Are you aware that Hamas are a branch of Moslem Brotherhood – a Sunni group? Egypt's (military government) problem with Hamas is because they deposed the Morsi led MB government.
Thus more in common with Erdogan's regime than the one in Iran.
They were in fact on the side of the Sunni Islamists fighting against Syria's President Assad (left wing Baath Party rule dominated by a minority Alawite Shia) who was supported by Hizbollah and Iran.
The Palestinians are problematic for some in the Arab League – because Moslem Brotherhood and Fatah (secular left like the Baathists of Iraq but to be government of a democratic Palestinian state) are both anathema to the top down rule of dynastic families and military regimes.
Iran is Shia Muslim, but they are Persian, not Arab so they're sympathetic but don't want to get involved.
Now that is so absurd, that it is just funny. Who arms Hizbollah and Hamas (and for what purpose)? Which nation apart from Russia was most involved in fighting for the Assad regime? Which nation runs the Shia militias in Iraq to the point of influence there akin to that they have with Hizbollah in Lebanon. Who arms the Houthis in Yemen.
I'd say that Hamas in the 80s when it broke away from the Muslim Brotherhood was a very different beast than it is now. There's video floating around of the current leader of Hamas talking about how he's committed to peaceful negotiation with Israel back around 2000.
Iran arms Hizbollah, Hamas and the Houthis but you never see them putting troops into the conflict. The Arab groups are pawns, not equals. They are useful in disrupting the US-Arab alliance. Just like Assad in Syria is useful to Russia. Iran has publicly called Hamas apostates and animals in the past.
You don't see American troops in Ukraine (continuance of a Cold War with Russia means no actual military conflict) or Israel (the US poses as the peace broker) either.
For Iran, as a Revolutionary Islamic Republic, sponsorship of Shia Moslem self-government and anti-West political leadership is its foreign policy. Of course active involvement of its own military outside of self defence (it was invited into Syria) is nation state aggression.
Hamas would appear to be the first Sunni Moslem group it has sponsored and based on having the same goal elimination of the Israeli state.
Qatar reached out to Hamas in 2006 at the request of the US to be a middle man in negotiations and it's the home of Al Jazeera so it's not too surprising that Hamas leadership base themselves there. Qatar is ~10% Shia so there's definitely support there and it's a rich oil state.
It's also a bit of the last place left. Saudi cracked down on Hamas after 9/11, Syria kicked them out in 2011, Egypt kicked them out after the 2013 coup which caused the Muslim Brotherhood to lose a lot of its influence.
Well my answer about the importance of Qatar right now for Israel and Hamas is multiple:
– Is a very strong ally of the US, with a relationship near to that of NATO membership
– Has the largest US military base in the Middle East
– State-influenced Al Jazeera is the primary news feed for much of the Middle East and of EU viewers, and manages to offend everyone in equal measure with their reporting which is admirable
– Harbours most of the Hamas leadership right now
– Is a consistent and massive donor to Gaza via Hamas, which Israel has permitted
– Sufficiently independent from either Saudi Arabia and Iran
– Has normalised relations with Israel
– Has highly skilled diplomatic corps with a very strong track record, even with Mossad
Way too early for anything useful to emerge diplomatically, but it certainly will.
Just in case it needs stating that the Queenstown-area economy is an airport-fuelled bubble of growth and wealth amidst the otherwise mediocre 90% remainder of New Zealand.
Since the highly publicized event in Hawkes Bay of the state ham-fistedly, attempting to uplift a new born baby, there appears to be a more hands off role from Oranga Tamariki.
In this example there were verbal agreements for the vulnerable child not to be left alone with it's eventual killer.
This is not to pour scorn on the mother nor social workers.
Surely, this is an ideological position of OT. One that appears to be failing our most vulnerable. In a chat with someone in the know, a recent child murder in Wellys, the three adults in the house were all on P, leaving no-one as a protector for the child.
How many more infant's must die, let alone the thousands more harmed, at the hands of their 'care-givers' and family before policy changes?
“National will deliver better outcomes for children in state care. We will ensure there is a Minister for Children who puts children's needs first. We will reinstate the Children’s Commissioner and ensure the best resources are targeted to our most vulnerable young New Zealanders.” https://www.national.org.nz/standards_for_nz_children_in_care_not_being_met
Targeting “the best resources” “to our most vulnerable” – shouldn't be long now.
I want to get my head around the situation. How much of this is because of under resourcing and under staffing? Is there an ideological 'capture' among workers and management? Biased reporting by media?
The Moana case was pure ideological capture within OT. Apparently at the case-worker level, but supported by management.
However, on the broader scale OT is damned if they do (uplift children) and damned if they don't (kids being killed, because of drop-kick adults in their life – why didn't OT intervene?)
A child-centred view would (most of the time) result in uplift of the children, and re-settlement either within the wider whanau (if possible) or with long-term foster parents.
Notably this resettlement has to be permanent, or as close to permanent as feasible. The damage done to kids as they ricochet between foster care, to whanau, to parents, and back to foster care, is considerably worse than a stable re-settlement.
OT is mostly parent (mother) centred. While, yes, *if* the Mum can be supported to turn her life around, then this is the best possible outcome. The problem is that most of the time it doesn't work. And, by the time OT admits it isn't working, the kids have been severely (arguably permanently) damaged – or are dead.
Celia Lashlie started advocating for the mums and highlighted the tendency for the 'authorities' let down the vulnerable while at the same time holding them to account for every shortcoming.
Obviously, but failing to supply evidence to WINZ, not getting to appointments on time, truancy/education issues, as examples are merely shortcomings. When compared to the resources, power and control of the state compared to a parent, juggling limited income/ budget priorities, work commitments etc.
Tracey Watkins touches on this (although the article casts more heat than light)
"We also know that members of the household were known to police, and probably to child protection agency Oranga Tamariki (OT) as well.
But OT continues to hide behind privacy as its excuse for refusing to talk about what it knew.
So who is speaking for Baby Ru? Not the people who were last to see him alive. And not OT. The inference is that they are not to blame for his death. But they have failed him, even in death, by refusing to give him a voice."
The only people speaking for Baby Ru are the wider whanau – the ones who cared for him and loved him for the first year of his life, primarily his great aunt, and his uncle.
OT is liable. Concerns about the safety of child within the household were officially raised with OT by the wider whanau. OT did nothing to address the issue. Once again, demonstrating that they are not child centred, but parent centred.
This is such a tragically typical situation, when children bounce back and forward between whanau, foster care, and the primary parent. There is a lot of research about how important it is for a child in the first couple of years to have a stable caregiver. Baby Ru should never have left the care of his great aunt.
The words I'd like to use for the adults living in the house, who either murdered him, or stood aside for others to do so – would not be acceptable on TS.
It's time for a law change, for child murders, because the right to silence has become a right to murder.
Statistically many more kids die and/or are abused in the care of drop-kick parents, than are killed/abused in State care.
I think that you are biased by some of the (tragic) history from the mid-20th century. There are much greater controls and checks on foster parents, than there are on the families that OT is 'supporting' (I've seen actual examples on both sides)
A child-centred approach would look first at whether it's realistic to support the family. But it requires a lot of intervention (no, you can't have care of your children if you live in a house with Meth users; no, you can't have care of your children while you live with someone with a history of family violence; yes, OT caseworkers will be checking up on you and on the people you live with; yes, you have to check with OT before moving; yes, you have to have a police check on any new adult moving into your home).
NB: these are all basic/ongoing checks that foster parents have to pass.
Many people are not comfortable with that level of state intervention. In that case, the child-centred approach is to remove the children from the highly risky environment. If Mum (and it usually is Mum – since Dad is long gone) isn't prepared to put the welfare of her kids first, then the State has to do so.
"Drop-kick parents" = parents who physically abuse their children? And/or perhaps very neglectful parents who are at the opposite end of the parenting spectrum to helicopter parents and snowplow parents?
Maybe Aotearoa NZ needs a ‘fostered generation’ to disrupt the cycle of children of "drop-kick parents" becoming "drop-kick parents" themselves? There but for the grace of God…
My sympathies are with the kids being physically abused and killed.
Your mileage clearly varies.
And, yes, I have personal acquaintance with people in this situation. Including kids whose lives have been pretty much ruined by the decisions made by parents (and supported by OT). And with foster parents who are doing their best to turn those kids lives around.
I've seen parents who come from really sh*t backgrounds themselves, absolutely determined to make sure their children never suffer what they did. Basically, it requires putting the needs and welfare of your kids first. Something which is really evident isn't present in almost every reported case of abuse – and would be clearly visible to every case-worker involved.
Whanau adoption can work really well – unfortunately it's not supported in many cases by OT – because the mother doesn't want to 'lose' the kids. A classic example of where OT is parent-centred, rather than child-centred. This recent case is a prime example – the baby was safe, cared for, and loved with his great aunt – but dead once he was returned to his mother. I can only imagine the depth of grief the kuia feels.
My sympathies are with the kids being physically abused and killed.
Your mileage clearly varies.
B, could you spell out what you mean by "your mileage clearly varies" – is it that you believe your "sympathy for the kids being physically abused and killed" is clearly superior to my sympathy?
Did I interpret your (repeated) use of the term "drop-kick parents" correctly? "Drop kick" is a common enough general insult, but I wondered if you meant something more specific in that context, e.g. parents who drop and kick their children. Regardless, the term is unhelpful, imho.
One in five kids have parents who are drop kicks. That is the true stat.
The really outrageous thing about that stat is that once again you guys want to defend the feral parents.
There is no excuse at all for any child to go to school hungry, or without adequate footwear and rainwear.
Also adoption. We were on a long waiting list for adoption for years, then got blessed with a conception that is now a lovely 21 yr old.
My mother was adopted and lived in a house with several foster children, growing up in the '40s and '50s.
I can't help but feel (unsurprisingly), the Douglas reforms have had a negative impact on social services as well. Witness Grainee Moss, former OT Chief Executive. From a bio, essentially a budget/balance sheet focussed type, from overseas, that defended the actions of the mis-handled Hawkes Bay uplift.
A bit like not wanting to drink a beer made by an accountant, OT needs leadership by those that are a little more connected to those they are responsible for.
This seems to be the case in Glenis Philip-Barbara, appointed to the newly-created position (Assistant Māori Children's Commissioner) by children’s commissioner Judge Andrew Becroft.
I see the annointed Leader of the Keystone Kops Koalition is still shooting off his mouth without actually saying anything of substance as usual. <a href=”http://Luxon defends negotiating skills as coalition talks continue Luxon defending his ineptitude.
Helen knew how to manage Winston. Lots of first class airfares to nice places as Foreign Affairs Minister with 2 other Ministers to do the actual work – Chris Carter for the relationships stuff and the "schmoozing," and Phil Goff to do the grunt work. All Winnie had to do was to turn up, give the speech, shake the paws and have a good time.
No. That is exactly the problem here … people understandably think "well, he can't be that bad, so there must be some cunning plan." Opponents are tempted to think it, not just supporters or commentators.
You only have to listen to his longer interviews (though I can appreciate why you wouldn't want to waste your time). Once we're past the scripted soundbites to any real follow-up, interviewers probing for actual answers, he is lost. He – quite literally – has no words. No vocabulary. It's not an act. He is that shallow.
As I said elsewhere (and is frankly obvious) Labour's failure was not Luxon's achievement.
Can you give any examples of things he has done right? "Not being Labour" is not an answer. Seymour and Peters are "Not Labour" and they run rings round Luxon. The Greens and TPM are not Labour, and have gained support.
The election was a referendum on the government, and they lost. The Labour votes went in 5 different directions (plus the "stay at homes", up 5%).
"Can you give any examples of things he has done right? "
He introduced discipline to a rabble that, you would have to acknowledge, had been prepared to eat their own young, in the desire for power.
Witness Boag, Bridges, Collins, Kuriger etc.
Matthew Hooton tells it the way that many see Luxon. A man totally unfitted to the role that he has claimed. (I envy the way that some can present the same ideas and beliefs that I have, but I am unable to present them effectively.)
By 11pm on election night, it was clear to anyone who could do year 10 algebra or operate an Excel spreadsheet that Luxon needed both Act and NZ First.
Hours later, proudly wearing his All Blacks jersey, the incoming Prime Minister seemed to agree, declaring that “I’m a person who likes to bring teams together and make sure that I get the best out of that team and use all the skills that are in that team.
“I’ve done a lot of mergers and acquisitions,” he boasted. “I’ve done a lot of negotiations.”
Back in Wellington, Luxon criticised the way Jim Bolger, Helen Clark, John Key, Bill English and Jacinda Ardern had conducted coalition talks, insisting he had a better way.
“I’m going to use the next three weeks until the special votes are fully counted,” he proclaimed, “to actually progress the relationships and the arrangements with each individual party.”
Alas, he failed….
Act, NZ First and National insiders say Luxon is a talker rather than a listener. He never asked how Act or NZ First thought negotiations should proceed, or what they wanted from them.
The smaller parties’ priorities differ from National’s and from each other’s, and they have very different styles.
Act prepared detailed policy papers for National, hoping to prompt in-depth discussions. National teased them for being so diligent with their homework and didn’t respond.
In contrast, Peters held his cards tight, waiting for Luxon to ask for his view of the world and priorities. Luxon never did….
He so clever and so successful and needs no advice from anyone and has already managed a huge turnaround for the NZ which he said so often was a basket case to today declaring that NZ is a strong progressive country. Wow! Such power. Such skill.
He's like the guy who listens to a Beatles song and says "hey, you should check this band out, I've just discovered them for you, I'm telling you they're good, listen to my advice".
That is exactly how Trump operates. It is though Luxon reads a mythical Self Help book by Trump.
And according to Hooton, Luxon mocked the homework done by David for the conversations and never bothered to ask about Winston's views. Probably because he knew all the answers and preferred his future partners to just do what Luxon tells them to do. Hmmph!
I hope people are finally seeing through the empty man. Not just predictable lefties but swing voters and "soft" Nats.
Luxon had three great gifts. Jami-Lee Ross self-destructed (so Luxon got Botany). Judith Collins self-destructed (so he got the leadership). And Chris Hipkins failed, so Luxon will be PM.
None of those events were because of Luxon's own talents. This is his first test. A laughable failure.
TBH – the negotiation time-frame only seems to matter for political tragics (myself included) and journalists. The rest of NZ are supremely unmoved (indeed, uninterested) by the negotiations.
The test for them will come when they see the policy that the new government puts up – and decide whether it will deal with their primary concerns (cost of living, crime, education)
If you want a tad more Hooten, he is very cynically and darkly good in The Working Group this week. A couple of times him and Grant get a bit boisterous but generally he is on form, especially getting stuck into Luxon.
He doesn't spare the media either. The press gallery, rather than rush about trying to get gotcha soundbites, they may have to read reports, do analysis research etc.
I saw the articles today, too, and couldn't believe how well I'd predicted things going. It was all I could see, but it sounded too unlikely that it didn't seem possible things would go the way I predicted. As I've said in earlier posts, if we couldn't have a secure left win, having this kind of outcome will help the left get back in in 2026 more than if the left just scraped in in the recent election.
What next?
I think Luxon will have lost all credibility within the National leadership. No more the "next John Key" reputation, methinks. In politics, you can't afford liabilities. If the dog can't hunt anymore, you shoot it and I think what's keeping Luxon in place now is the total embarrassing and completely unthinkable situation of dumping him in the midst of negotiations. Something tells me Luxon still believes he's doing a good job though. As they say in politics, his tail's being eaten but the message hasn't reached his mind yet. Were I Nicola Willis, I would be clearing out her appointment book for the first part of the new year.
Matthew Hooton told us the inside goss is that Luxon believed he was negotiating from a position of strength against two weaker coalition partners, so made them some lowball offers that insulted them (and, although Hooton didn't spell it out, must have brought Peters and Seymour closer together than ever thought possible).
I agree with Hooton and what he said spoke volumes about the "I'm the great negotiator" atmosphere to this whole situation. I have a slightly different spin on it though.
Many ex-CEO's of big organisations who can't see a future next-step in business for themselves imagine a natural progression to the political arena however unless they spend time learning politics (and have the humility to see themselves at the lower rungs of a new ladder, I might say) such an imagination can be fraught with danger.
Despite what Roger Douglas taught the country about level playing fields, big organisations generally negotiate under situations where the bargaining power of suppliers is low. That means, for example, I might own a big company and need some new computer monitors. My contract is worth having, due to my size, and there are many different suppliers. More to the point, there's not a lot of difference between an HP monitor or a Dell monitor. These factors mean that my big company negotiates with HP and Dell from a position of power and strength (hardly a level playing field at all). To many corporate executives "As long as I win, I don't care if you lose" is good negotiating.
But, politics (and particularly MMP) does not make those distinctions when forming coalitions. Politics is about "win-win" (which can sometimes be another way of saying "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours") and the relative size of the National/ACT/NZF share is out the window to some extent.
Good negotiators from other walks of life learn about something called a BATNA. This stands for Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement. In other words, having a Plan B. It's the plan you fall back on if you can't reach agreement with the person you're negotiating with. Luxon went into the coalition talks without one. He has to reach agreement with Peters and Seymour if he is to save his own face and his party's political future as the most solid right wing party to vote for.
According to Hooton's article, Peters and Seymour went into the talks with a BATNA that was, if they didn't get something meaningful for themselves, they didn't have to risk their reputations by forcing another election, they could offer Luxon the alternative of a National government, backed by their confidence and supply and the difficulty of arguing out each situation as it came up.
Let's say, for instance, that as soon as the preliminary votes were counted, Luxon had gone to the Greens and said "Look, we don't see eye to eye on most things but there are limits to the extent I can cope with Winston holding my face to the stove. Can we at least explore some things I can offer that would allow you to do a confidence and supply deal with me?" He could then have gone into negotiations with the BATNA of a National/ACT government, underpinned by the Greens. Note that he doesn't necessarily have to conclude that negotiation, he just needs to be seen to be exploring it, to give him so much more control over the negotiating process. For those Greenies who say the Green Party would never enter into anything with National, remember that not long ago, who could have seen Peters/Seymour so much in harmony, but pragmatism brought them together.
So, in summary, in this negotiation, Luxon has positioned National into a negotiation where it has no Plan B – it has to reach agreement with both Seymour and Peters. Seymour and Peters, however, have used the time since the election to talk pragmatically and develop a workable Plan B that puts them ahead of the game.
Whatever happens, I think this spells disappointment for those who saw Luxon as the next John Key, both in longevity and in calibre – IMHO.
Not that I've seen or heard. But plenty who wanted him to be – which I imagine is what Thinker is saying. And a good deal of what Luxon/Willis (Luxlis?) propose to do is a rerun of the Key playbook.
Luxon was never John Key 2.0, and it's amazing how many people on the left accepted that framing (it's been repeated on here, a lot).
As though they're unable to say "I don't like or support Key but he was good at politics for National, and I don't like or support Luxon and he's bad at politics for National". Understanding your opponent is not approval.
Being a good bullshitter is a common characteristic of politicians. Key was a good bullshitter, Luxon is hopeless at it.
The Green Party would never give c and s to a NACT government, or even a National-NZF one.
They might offer c and s to a National minority government (together they are a majority) if Luxon showed them what he had negotiated with ACT and NZF and would they please save him and the country from the consequences of his first attempt at governance.
The ultimate fall back position for National, is talking to the Greens.
Help with affording their tax cuts
without allowing foreign buyers – just match the 5% stamp duty of Oz on homes over $2M – $300-400M pa
The 4 big banks made a profit of $6B – a 5% windfall profits tax – $300M
Add a windfall profits tax on supermarkets as well.
National can guarantee its landlord friendly policies would help hold rent levels down by agreeing to the Greens 3% rent increase cap – they do believe what they say don't they?
They can abide by our international committments – Paris Accords. They do say we have bi-partisan foreign policy don't they?
They can agree to increase the MW and continue with Fair Pay Agreements/Industry Awards. Because they do not want locals to have to go to Oz to get a fair wage do they? And they do need a rising tax take to manage the governments finances don't they?
And continue with the state house building (and buying) programme and the shared equity scheme for first home buyers and take note of Winston Peters warning about planning for future aged care needs. They do believe in a home ownership based democracy and income based rent provision for those in need, don't they?
Gisborne man could not catch me and put me in his hinaki so he cheated useing the Mental Health Act against me you see whanau if the neanderthals can't win fairly then they cheat like the devil himself.
Gisborne man could not catch me and put me in his hinaki so he cheated useing the Mental Health Act against me you see whanau if the neanderthals can't win fairly then they cheat like the devil himself.
Minority poor people can't sue the system for Mel practice. In other words the system bends over the poor and ##### them we can't sue.
The rich can sue any time they want.
WTF
They say the great acc experiment it's a lie they new exactly what would happen with acc they taken the poorest right to sue government or private enterprises for our abuse of human rights indigenous rights. Its fraud they broadcast lies about the system to make the nieve to believe there system is perfect.
Its shitting on poor people and the rich doesn't give a fuck about the poorest
tangata. that is why none of the system negative stats for the poorest tangata never decrease9
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The landedAnd the wealthyAnd the piousAnd the healthyAnd the straight onesAnd the pale onesAnd we only mean the male ones!If you're all of the above, then you're ok!As we build a new tomorrow here today!Lyrics Glenn Slater and Allan Menken.Ah, Democracy - can you smell it?It's presently a sulphurous odour, ...
US President Donald Trump’s unconventional methods of conducting international relations will compel the next federal government to reassess whether the United States’ presence in the region and its security assurances provide a reliable basis for ...
Things seem to be at a pretty low ebb in and around the Reserve Bank. There was, in particular, the mysterious, sudden, and as-yet unexplained resignation of the Governor (we’ve had four Governors since the Bank was given its operational autonomy 35 years ago, and only two have completed their ...
Long story short:PMChristopher Luxon said in January his Government was ‘going for growth’ and he wanted New Zealanders to develop a ‘culture of yes.’ Yet his own Government is constantly saying no, or not yet, to anchor investments that would unleash real private business investment and GDP growth. ...
Long story short:PMChristopher Luxon said in January his Government was ‘going for growth’ and he wanted New Zealanders to develop a ‘culture of yes.’ Yet his own Government is constantly saying no, or not yet, to anchor investments that would unleash real private business investment and GDP growth. ...
For decades, Britain and Australia had much the same process for regulating media handling of defence secrets. It was the D-notice system, under which media would be asked not to publish. The two countries diverged ...
For decades, Britain and Australia had much the same process for regulating media handling of defence secrets. It was the D-notice system, under which media would be asked not to publish. The two countries diverged ...
This post by Nicolas Reid was originally published on Linked in. It is republished here with permission.In this article, I make a not-entirely-serious case for ripping out Spaghetti Junction in Auckland, replacing it with a motorway tunnel, and redeveloping new city streets and neighbourhoods above it instead. What’s ...
This post by Nicolas Reid was originally published on Linked in. It is republished here with permission.In this article, I make a not-entirely-serious case for ripping out Spaghetti Junction in Auckland, replacing it with a motorway tunnel, and redeveloping new city streets and neighbourhoods above it instead. What’s ...
In short this morning in our political economy:The Nelson Hospital crisis revealed by 1News’Jessica Roden dominates the political agenda today. Yet again, population growth wasn’t planned for, or funded.Kāinga Ora is planning up to 900 house sales, including new ones, Jonathan Milne reports for Newsroom.One of New Zealand’s biggest ...
In short this morning in our political economy:The Nelson Hospital crisis revealed by 1News’Jessica Roden dominates the political agenda today. Yet again, population growth wasn’t planned for, or funded.Kāinga Ora is planning up to 900 house sales, including new ones, Jonathan Milne reports for Newsroom.One of New Zealand’s biggest ...
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues unabated. Neither side is in a position to achieve its stated objectives through military force. But now there is significant diplomatic activity as well. Ukraine has agreed to ...
One of the first aims of the United States’ new Department of Government Efficiency was shutting down USAID. By 6 February, the agency was functionally dissolved, its seal missing from its Washington headquarters. Amid the ...
If our strategic position was already challenging, it just got worse. Reliability of the US as an ally is in question, amid such actions by the Trump administration as calling for annexation of Canada, threating ...
Small businesses will be exempt from complying with some of the requirements of health and safety legislation under new reforms proposed by the Government. The living wage will be increased to $28.95 per hour from September, a $1.15 increase from the current $27.80. A poll has shown large opposition to ...
Summary A group of senior doctors in Nelson have spoken up, specifically stating that hospitals have never been as bad as in the last year.Patients are waiting up to 50 hours and 1 death is directly attributable to the situation: "I've never seen that number of patients waiting to be ...
Although semiconductor chips are ubiquitous nowadays, their production is concentrated in just a few countries, and this has left the US economy and military highly vulnerable at a time of rising geopolitical tensions. While the ...
Health and Safety changes driven by ACT party ideology, not evidence said NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff. Changes to health and safety legislation proposed by the Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden today comply with ACT party ideology, ignores the evidence, and will compound New ...
In short in our political economy this morning:Fletcher Building is closing its pre-fabricated house-building factory in Auckland due to a lack of demand, particularly from the Government.Health NZ is sending a crisis management team to Nelson Hospital after a 1News investigation exposed doctors’ fears that nearly 500 patients are overdue ...
Exactly 10 years ago, the then minister for defence, Kevin Andrews, released the First Principles Review: Creating One Defence (FPR). With increasing talk about the rising possibility of major power-conflict, calls for Defence funding to ...
In events eerily similar to what happened in the USA last week, Greater Auckland was recently accidentally added to a group chat between government ministers on the topic of transport.We have no idea how it happened, but luckily we managed to transcribe most of what transpired. We share it ...
Hi,When I look back at my history with Dylan Reeve, it’s pretty unusual. We first met in the pool at Kim Dotcom’s mansion, as helicopters buzzed overhead and secret service agents flung themselves off the side of his house, abseiling to the ground with guns drawn.Kim Dotcom was a German ...
Come around for teaDance me round and round the kitchenBy the light of my T.VOn the night of the electionAncient stars will fall into the seaAnd the ocean floor sings her sympathySongwriter: Bic Runga.The Prime Minister stared into the camera, hot and flustered despite the predawn chill. He looked sadly ...
Has Winston Peters got a ferries deal for you! (Buyer caution advised.) Unfortunately, the vision that Peters has been busily peddling for the past 24 hours – of several shipyards bidding down the price of us getting smaller, narrower, rail-enabled ferries – looks more like a science fiction fantasy. One ...
Completed reads for March: The Heart of the Antarctic [1907-1909], by Ernest Shackleton South [1914-1917], by Ernest Shackleton Aurora Australis (collection), edited by Ernest Shackleton The Book of Urizen (poem), by William Blake The Book of Ahania (poem), by William Blake The Book of Los (poem), by William Blake ...
First - A ReminderBenjamin Doyle Doesn’t Deserve ThisI’ve been following posts regarding Green MP Benjamin Doyle over the last few days, but didn’t want to amplify the abject nonsense.This morning, Winston Peters, New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister, answered the alt-right’s prayers - guaranteeing amplification of the topic, by going on ...
US President Donald Trump has shown a callous disregard for the checks and balances that have long protected American democracy. As the self-described ‘king’ makes a momentous power grab, much of the world watches anxiously, ...
They can be the very same words. And yet their meaning can vary very much.You can say I'll kill him about your colleague who accidentally deleted your presentation the day before a big meeting.You can say I'll kill him to — or, for that matter, about — Tony Soprano.They’re the ...
Back in 2020, the then-Labour government signed contracted for the construction and purchase of two new rail-enabled Cook Strait ferries, to be operational from 2026. But when National took power in 2023, they cancelled them in a desperate effort to make the books look good for a year. And now ...
The fragmentation of cyber regulation in the Indo-Pacific is not just inconvenient; it is a strategic vulnerability. In recent years, governments across the Indo-Pacific, including Australia, have moved to reform their regulatory frameworks for cyber ...
Welcome to the March 2025 Economic Bulletin. The feature article examines what public private partnerships (PPPs) are. PPPs have been a hot topic recently, with the coalition government signalling it wants to use them to deliver infrastructure. However, experience with PPPs, both here and overseas, indicates we should be wary. ...
Willis announces more plans of plans for supermarketsYesterday’s much touted supermarket competition announcement by Nicola Willis amounted to her telling us she was issuing a 6 week RFI1 that will solicit advice from supermarket players.In short, it was an announcement of a plan - but better than her Kiwirail Interislander ...
This was the post I was planning to write this morning to mark Orr’s final day. That said, if the underlying events – deliberate attempts to mislead Parliament – were Orr’s doing, the post is more about the apparent uselessness of Parliament (specifically the Finance and Expenditure Committee) in holding ...
Taiwanese chipmaking giant TSMC’s plan to build a plant in the United States looks like a move made at the behest of local officials to solidify US support for Taiwan. However, it may eventually lessen ...
This is a Guest Post by Transport Planner Bevan Woodward from the charitable trust Movement, which has lodged an application for a judicial review of the Governments Setting of Speed Limits Rule 2024 Auckland is at grave risk of having its safer speed limits on approx. 1,500 local streets ...
We're just talkin' 'bout the futureForget about the pastIt'll always be with usIt's never gonna die, never gonna dieSongwriters: Brian Johnson / Angus Young / Malcolm YoungMorena, all you lovely people, it’s good to be back, and I have news from the heartland. Now brace yourself for this: depending on ...
Today is the last day in office for the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Adrian Orr. Of course, he hasn’t been in the office since 5 March when, on the eve of his major international conference, his resignation was announced and he stormed off with no (effective) notice and no ...
Treasury and Cabinet have finally agreed to a Crown guarantee for a non-Government lending agency for Community Housing Providers (CHPs), which could unlock billions worth of loans and investments by pension funds and banks to build thousands of more affordable social homes. Photo: Lynn GrievesonMōrena. Long stories shortest:Chris Bishop ...
Australia has plenty of room to spend more on defence. History shows that 2.9 percent of GDP is no great burden in ordinary times, so pushing spending to 3.0 percent in dangerous times is very ...
In short this morning in our political economy:Winston Peters will announce later today whether two new ferries are rail ‘compatible’, requiring time-consuming container shuffling, or the more efficient and expensive rail ‘enabled,’ where wagons can roll straight on and off.Nicola Willisthreatened yesterday to break up the supermarket duopoly with ...
A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 23, 2025 thru Sat, March 29, 2025. This week's roundup is again published by category and sorted by number of articles included in each. The formatting is a ...
For prospective writers out there, Inspired Quill, the publisher of my novel(s) is putting together a short story anthology (pieces up to 10,000 words). The open submission window is 29th March to 29th April. https://www.inspired-quill.com/anthology-submissions/ The theme?This anthology will bring together diverse voices exploring themes of hope, resistance, and human ...
Prime minister Kevin Rudd released the 2009 defence white paper in May of that year. It is today remembered mostly for what it said about the strategic implications of China’s rise; its plan to double ...
In short this morning in our political economy:Voters want the Government to retain the living wage for cleaners, a poll shows.The Government’s move to provide a Crown guarantee to banks and the private sector for social housing is described a watershed moment and welcomed by Community Housing Providers.Nicola Willis is ...
The recent attacks in the Congo by Rwandan backed militias has led to worldwide condemnation of the Rwandan regime of Paul Kagame. Following up on the recent Fabian Zoom with Mikela Wrong and Maria Amoudian, Dr Rudaswinga will give a complete picture of Kagame’s regime and discuss the potential ...
New Zealand’s economic development has always been a partnership between the public and private sectors.Public-Private-Partnerships (PPPs) have become fashionable again, partly because of the government’s ambitions to accelerate infrastructural development. There is, of course, an ideological element too, while some of the opposition to them is also ideological.PPPs come in ...
How Australia funds development and defence was front of mind before Tuesday’s federal budget. US President Donald Trump’s demands for a dramatic lift in allied military spending and brutal cuts to US foreign assistance meant ...
Questions 1. Where and what is this protest?a. Hamilton, angry crowd yelling What kind of food do you call this Seymour?b.Dunedin, angry crowd yelling Still waiting, Simeon, still waitingc. Wellington, angry crowd yelling You’re trashing everything you idiotsd. Istanbul, angry crowd yelling Give us our democracy back, give it ...
Two blueprints that could redefine the Northern Territory’s economic future were launched last week. The first was a government-led economic strategy and the other an industry-driven economic roadmap. Both highlight that supporting the Northern Territory ...
Abortion care at Whakatāne Hospital has been quietly shelved, with patients told they will likely have to travel more than an hour to Tauranga to get the treatment they need. ...
Thousands of New Zealanders’ submissions are missing from the official parliamentary record because the National-dominated Justice Select Committee has rushed work on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...
Today’s announcement of 10 percent tariffs for New Zealand goods entering the United States is disappointing for exporters and consumers alike, with the long-lasting impact on prices and inflation still unknown. ...
The National Government’s choices have contributed to a slow-down in the building sector, as thousands of people have lost their jobs in construction. ...
Willie Apiata’s decision to hand over his Victoria Cross to the Minister for Veterans is a powerful and selfless act, made on behalf of all those who have served our country. ...
The Privileges Committee has denied fundamental rights to Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, Rawiri Waititi and Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, breaching their own standing orders, breaching principles of natural justice, and highlighting systemic prejudice and discrimination within our parliamentary processes. The three MPs were summoned to the privileges committee following their performance of a haka ...
April 1 used to be a day when workers could count on a pay rise with stronger support for those doing it tough, but that’s not the case under this Government. ...
Winston Peters is shopping for smaller ferries after Nicola Willis torpedoed the original deal, which would have delivered new rail enabled ferries next year. ...
The Government should work with other countries to press the Myanmar military regime to stop its bombing campaign especially while the country recovers from the devastating earthquake. ...
The Green Party is calling for the Government to scrap proposed changes to Early Childhood Care, after attending a petition calling for the Government to ‘Put tamariki at the heart of decisions about ECE’. ...
New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill today that will remove the power of MPs conscience votes and ensure mandatory national referendums are held before any conscience issues are passed into law. “We are giving democracy and power back to the people”, says New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters. ...
Welcome to members of the diplomatic corp, fellow members of parliament, the fourth estate, foreign affairs experts, trade tragics, ladies and gentlemen. ...
In recent weeks, disturbing instances of state-sanctioned violence against Māori have shed light on the systemic racism permeating our institutions. An 11-year-old autistic Māori child was forcibly medicated at the Henry Bennett Centre, a 15-year-old had his jaw broken by police in Napier, kaumātua Dean Wickliffe went on a hunger ...
Confidence in the job market has continued to drop to its lowest level in five years as more New Zealanders feel uncertain about finding work, keeping their jobs, and getting decent pay, according to the latest Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index. ...
The Greens are calling on the Government to follow through on their vague promises of environmental protection in their Resource Management Act (RMA) reform. ...
“Make New Zealand First Again” Ladies and gentlemen, First of all, thank you for being here today. We know your lives are busy and you are working harder and longer than you ever have, and there are many calls on your time, so thank you for the chance to speak ...
Hundreds more Palestinians have died in recent days as Israel’s assault on Gaza continues and humanitarian aid, including food and medicine, is blocked. ...
National is looking to cut hundreds of jobs at New Zealand’s Defence Force, while at the same time it talks up plans to increase focus and spending in Defence. ...
It’s been revealed that the Government is secretly trying to bring back a ‘one-size fits all’ standardised test – a decision that has shocked school principals. ...
The Green Party is calling for the compassionate release of Dean Wickliffe, a 77-year-old kaumātua on hunger strike at the Spring Hill Corrections Facility, after visiting him at the prison. ...
The Green Party is calling on Government MPs to support Chlöe Swarbrick’s Member’s Bill to sanction Israel for its unlawful presence and illegal actions in Palestine, following another day of appalling violence against civilians in Gaza. ...
The Green Party stands in support of volunteer firefighters petitioning the Government to step up and change legislation to provide volunteers the same ACC coverage and benefits as their paid counterparts. ...
At 2.30am local time, Israel launched a treacherous attack on Gaza killing more than 300 defenceless civilians while they slept. Many of them were children. This followed a more than 2 week-long blockade by Israel on the entry of all goods and aid into Gaza. Israel deliberately targeted densely populated ...
Living Strong, Aging Well There is much discussion around the health of our older New Zealanders and how we can age well. In reality, the delivery of health services accounts for only a relatively small percentage of health outcomes as we age. Significantly, dry warm housing, nutrition, exercise, social connection, ...
Shane Jones’ display on Q&A showed how out of touch he and this Government are with our communities and how in sync they are with companies with little concern for people and planet. ...
The Government’s new planning legislation to replace the Resource Management Act will make it easier to get things done while protecting the environment, say Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop and Under-Secretary Simon Court. “The RMA is broken and everyone knows it. It makes it too hard to build ...
Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay has today launched a public consultation on New Zealand and India’s negotiations of a formal comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. “Negotiations are getting underway, and the Public’s views will better inform us in the early parts of this important negotiation,” Mr McClay says. We are ...
More than 900 thousand superannuitants and almost five thousand veterans are among the New Zealanders set to receive a significant financial boost from next week, an uplift Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says will help support them through cost-of-living challenges. “I am pleased to confirm that from 1 ...
Progressing a holistic strategy to unlock the potential of New Zealand’s geothermal resources, possibly in applications beyond energy generation, is at the centre of discussions with mana whenua at a hui in Rotorua today, Resources and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is in the early stages ...
New annual data has exposed the staggering cost of delays previously hidden in the building consent system, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I directed Building Consent Authorities to begin providing quarterly data last year to improve transparency, following repeated complaints from tradespeople waiting far longer than the statutory ...
Increases in water charges for Auckland consumers this year will be halved under the Watercare Charter which has now been passed into law, Local Government Minister Simon Watts and Auckland Minister Simeon Brown say. The charter is part of the financial arrangement for Watercare developed last year by Auckland Council ...
There is wide public support for the Government’s work to strengthen New Zealand’s biosecurity protections, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard. “The Ministry for Primary Industries recently completed public consultation on proposed amendments to the Biosecurity Act and the submissions show that people understand the importance of having a strong biosecurity ...
A new independent review function will enable individuals and organisations to seek an expert independent review of specified civil aviation regulatory decisions made by, or on behalf of, the Director of Civil Aviation, Acting Transport Minister James Meager has announced today. “Today we are making it easier and more affordable ...
The Government will invest in an enhanced overnight urgent care service for the Napier community as part of our focus on ensuring access to timely, quality healthcare, Health Minister Simeon Brown has today confirmed. “I am delighted that a solution has been found to ensure Napier residents will continue to ...
Health Minister Simeon Brown and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey attended a sod turning today to officially mark the start of construction on a new mental health facility at Hillmorton Campus. “This represents a significant step in modernising mental health services in Canterbury,” Mr Brown says. “Improving health infrastructure is ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has welcomed confirmation the economy has turned the corner. Stats NZ reported today that gross domestic product grew 0.7 per cent in the three months to December following falls in the June and September quarters. “We know many families and businesses are still suffering the after-effects ...
The sealing of a 12-kilometre stretch of State Highway 43 (SH43) through the Tangarakau Gorge – one of the last remaining sections of unsealed state highway in the country – has been completed this week as part of a wider programme of work aimed at improving the safety and resilience ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters says relations between New Zealand and the United States are on a strong footing, as he concludes a week-long visit to New York and Washington DC today. “We came to the United States to ask the new Administration what it wants from ...
Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee has welcomed changes to international anti-money laundering standards which closely align with the Government’s reforms. “The Financial Action Taskforce (FATF) last month adopted revised standards for tackling money laundering and the financing of terrorism to allow for simplified regulatory measures for businesses, organisations and sectors ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour says he welcomes Medsafe’s decision to approve an electronic controlled drug register for use in New Zealand pharmacies, allowing pharmacies to replace their physical paper-based register. “The register, developed by Kiwi brand Toniq Limited, is the first of its kind to be approved in New ...
The Coalition Government’s drive for regional economic growth through the $1.2 billion Regional Infrastructure Fund is on track with more than $550 million in funding so far committed to key infrastructure projects, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. “To date, the Regional Infrastructure Fund (RIF) has received more than 250 ...
[Comments following the bilateral meeting with United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio; United States State Department, Washington D.C.] * We’re very pleased with our meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio this afternoon. * We came here to listen to the new Administration and to be clear about what ...
The intersection of State Highway 2 (SH2) and Wainui Road in the Eastern Bay of Plenty will be made safer and more efficient for vehicles and freight with the construction of a new and long-awaited roundabout, says Transport Minister Chris Bishop. “The current intersection of SH2 and Wainui Road is ...
The Ocean Race will return to the City of Sails in 2027 following the Government’s decision to invest up to $4 million from the Major Events Fund into the international event, Auckland Minister Simeon Brown says. “New Zealand is a proud sailing nation, and Auckland is well-known internationally as the ...
Improving access to mental health and addiction support took a significant step forward today with Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey announcing that the University of Canterbury have been the first to be selected to develop the Government’s new associate psychologist training programme. “I am thrilled that the University of Canterbury ...
Health Minister Simeon Brown has today officially opened the new East Building expansion at Manukau Health Park. “This is a significant milestone and the first stage of the Grow Manukau programme, which will double the footprint of the Manukau Health Park to around 30,000m2 once complete,” Mr Brown says. “Home ...
The Government will boost anti-crime measures across central Auckland with $1.3 million of funding as a result of the Proceeds of Crime Fund, Auckland Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee say. “In recent years there has been increased antisocial and criminal behaviour in our CBD. The Government ...
The Government is moving to strengthen rules for feeding food waste to pigs to protect New Zealand from exotic animal diseases like foot and mouth disease (FMD), says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard. ‘Feeding untreated meat waste, often known as "swill", to pigs could introduce serious animal diseases like FMD and ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held productive talks in New Delhi today. Fresh off announcing that New Zealand and India would commence negotiations towards a Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, the two Prime Ministers released a joint statement detailing plans for further cooperation between the two countries across ...
Agriculture and Trade Minister Todd McClay signed a new Memorandum of Cooperation (MOC) today during the Prime Minister’s Indian Trade Mission, reinforcing New Zealand’s commitment to enhancing collaboration with India in the forestry sector. “Our relationship with India is a key priority for New Zealand, and this agreement reflects our ...
Agriculture and Trade Minister Todd McClay signed a new Memorandum of Cooperation (MOC) today during the Prime Minister’s Indian Trade Mission, reinforcing New Zealand’s commitment to enhancing collaboration with India in the horticulture sector. “Our relationship with India is a key priority for New Zealand, and this agreement reflects our ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new Family Court Judges. The new Judges will take up their roles in April and May and fill Family Court vacancies at the Auckland and Manukau courts. Annette Gray Ms Gray completed her law degree at Victoria University before joining Phillips ...
Health Minister Simeon Brown has today officially opened Wellington Regional Hospital’s first High Dependency Unit (HDU). “This unit will boost critical care services in the lower North Island, providing extra capacity and relieving pressure on the hospital’s Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and emergency department. “Wellington Regional Hospital has previously relied ...
Namaskar, Sat Sri Akal, kia ora and good afternoon everyone. What an honour it is to stand on this stage - to inaugurate this august Dialogue - with none other than the Honourable Narendra Modi. My good friend, thank you for so generously welcoming me to India and for our ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Brodie, Research Scientist in Marine Ecology, CSIRO jittawit21, Shutterstock Picture this: you’re lounging on a beautiful beach, soaking up the sun and listening to the soothing sound of the waves. You run your hands through the warm sand, only to ...
By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Although New Zealand and Australia seem to have escaped the worst of Donald Trump’s latest tariffs, some Pacific Islands stand to be hit hard — including a few that aren’t even “countries”. The US will impose a base tariff of 10 percent on all ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton both agree Australia should react to US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff regime by continuing to seek a special deal. They just disagree about which of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Orlando, Researcher, Digital Literacy and Digital Wellbeing, Western Sydney University UK Prime Minster Keir Starmer met with Adolescence writer Jack Thorne to discuss adolescent safety at Downing Street on Monday. Jack Taylor/ GettyImages Netflix’s Adolescence has ignited global debate. ...
By Anneke Smith,RNZ News political reporter A stoush between the Chief Human Rights Commissioner and a Jewish community leader has flared up following a showdown at Parliament. Appearing before a parliamentary select committee today, Dr Stephen Rainbow was asked about his recent apology for incorrect comments he made about ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rakesh Gupta, Associate Professor of Accounting & Finance, Charles Darwin University US President Donald Trump’s new trade war will not only send shockwaves through the global economy – it also upsets efforts to tackle the urgent issue of climate change. Trump has ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Toohey, Professor of Law, UNSW Sydney It had the hallmarks of a reality TV cliffhanger. Until recently, many people had never even heard of tariffs. Now, there’s been rolling live international coverage of so-called “Liberation Day”, as US President Donald Trump ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nick Fuller, Clinical Trials Director, Department of Endocrinology, RPA Hospital, University of Sydney mavo/Shutterstock In the ever-changing wellness industry, one diet obsession has captured and held TikTok’s attention: protein. Whether it’s sharing snaps of protein-packed meals or giving tutorials to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sebastian Maslow, Associate Professor, International Relations, University of Tokyo Two months into US President Donald Trump’s second term, the liberal international order is on life support. Alliances and multilateral institutions are now seen by the United States as burdens. Europe and ...
Starving public services of resources, gutting the workforce and then proposing private market solutions has been a key strategy of this government, says Vanessa Cole, spokesperson for Public Housing Futures. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hayley Geyle, Ecologist, Charles Darwin University Sarah Maclagan/Author provided The greater bilby (Macrotis lagotis) is one of Australia’s most iconic yet at-risk animals — and the last surviving bilby species. Once found across 70% of Australia, its range has contracted by ...
The government’s own Regulatory Impact Statement acknowledges that organic producers will bear the financial burden of adapting to the risks posed by GMO expansion. ...
The committee has "rammed it through with outrageous haste", with a report now expected tomorrow, but excluding thousands of submissions, Duncan Webb says. ...
The US president’s sweeping programme of global tariffs will hit every country abroad, including New Zealand, and dramatically raise prices at home. This is an excerpt from The World Bulletin, our weekly global current affairs newsletter exclusively for Spinoff Members. Sign up here.In a dramatic, flag-draped address from the White ...
Alex Casey talks to Bariz Shah and Saba Afrasyabi, the couple who launched a project to change 51 lives in honour of those lost in the Christchurch mosque attacks. When Bariz Shah and Saba Afrasyabi walked into Naeem’s house in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, they knew immediately that he needed their help. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Felicity Deane, Professor of Trade Law, Taxation and Climate Change, Queensland University of Technology US President Donald Trump has imposed a range of tariffs on all products entering the US market, with Australian exports set to face a 10% tariff, effective April ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra US President Donald Trump singled out Australia’s beef trade for special mention in his announcement that the United States would impose a 10% global tariff as well as “reciprocal tariffs” on many countries. In ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hayley Geyle, Ecologist, Charles Darwin University Sarah Maclagan/Author provided The greater bilby (Macrotis lagotis) is one of Australia’s most iconic yet at-risk animals — and the last surviving bilby species. Once found across 70% of Australia, its range has contracted by ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra US President Donald Trump singled out Australia’s beef trade for special mention in his announcement that the United States would impose a 10% global tariff as well as “reciprocal tariffs” on many countries. In ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Rudge, Law lecturer, University of Sydney Shutterstock Recent media coverage in the Nine newspapers highlights a surge in non-medical ultrasound providers offering “reassurance ultrasounds” to expectant parents. The service has resulted in serious harms, such as misdiagnosed ectopic pregnancies and ...
The three MPs whose rule-breaking haka caught the world’s attention didn’t attend their scheduled hearing yesterday. Constitutional law expert Andrew Geddis has the rundown of what happened, why, and what’s likely to come next. I see Te Pāti Māori and the privileges committee are in some sort of stand-off – ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Turner, Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University The Eurasian and North American tectonic plates in Thingvellir National Park, Iceland.Nido Huebl/Shutterstock Earth is the only known planet which has plate tectonics today. The constant movement of these giant slabs of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra US President Donald Trump singled out Australia’s beef trade for special mention in his announcement that the United States would impose a 10% global tariff as well as “reciprocal tariffs” on many countries. In ...
Meta has stolen millions of books to train its AI, including books by kaituhi Māori. What does that mean for mātauranga and its status as taonga? New Zealand authors are among the millions whose books have been pirated and scraped by Meta to train its AI. The New Zealand Society of ...
Some hoped the open of the New Zealand markets would open with a bounce as certain tariffs fell short of the worst-case scenario, but investors were met with a deflated thud.The New Zealand market fell immediately as stock market darling Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s shares were punished, with no update ...
Healthcare dominated the debate in an unusually sober and serious question time. “Hey David!” a group of high school students in the public gallery called out as Act leader David Seymour entered the debating chamber. Standing in the middle of the floor, before any other MPs had arrived, he happily ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Heaslip, Senior Lecturer in Naval History, University of Portsmouth How the Shuqiao barges may be used to ferry troops ashore. X (formerly Twitter) China’s intentions when it comes to Taiwan have been at the centre of intense discussion for years. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kiera Vaclavik, Professor of Children’s Literature & Childhood Culture, Queen Mary University of London This spring, Babe is returning to cinemas to mark the 30th anniversary of its release in 1995. The much-loved family film tells the deceptively simple but emotionally powerful ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sophie King-Hill, Associate Professor at the Health Services Management Centre, University of Birmingham Netflix television series Adolescence follows a 13-year-old boy accused of the murder of his female classmate. It touches upon incel online hate groups, toxic influencers and the misogynistic online ...
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https://www.bitchute.com/video/ELs1d94vKjFF/
And then one day along will come quantum computing.
Humanity has been making gods for thousands of years, and this may be the one to truly rule – though in America they are trying to build a hybrid and call its emergence a millennial realm. The deep state has been preparing for this capability of "oversight" management of the civilian population for some decades at a lesser tech level on a subset of the human population (psy ops).
By the time half of the New Zealand population reaches age 65 having never owned their home, that will be the least of their worries. A society order capable of managing inequality, not mitigating it, is being built. The prosperity gospel made manifest – for some.
The halcyon days are behind us.
Amen.
Since then (2008), spaceship Earth has gained another 1.3 billion human passengers.
Still, best foot forward…
https://www.overshootday.org/newsroom/country-overshoot-days/
For people commenting on the support or lack thereof for Palestinians in surrounding countries, it might be helpful to reflect on the ethnic and religious divides in the area.
Palestinians are Arab and Shia Muslim. Other countries that have Shia Arab majorities are Azerbaijan, Bahrain & Iraq. Countries with a significant Shia Arab population are Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. These are the countries where the most support for Palestine is found, although Azerbaijan is in the middle of a war and Iraq is still rebuilding after the end of the two wars it's just gone through.
Iran is Shia Muslim, but they are Persian, not Arab so they're sympathetic but don't want to get involved.
All the other countries around Israel are Arab and Sunni Muslim. Again, sympathetic to fellow Arabs, but Egypt taking refugees would be like Irish Catholics taking in some fleeing Protestants 80 years ago.
Are you aware that Hamas are a branch of Moslem Brotherhood – a Sunni group? Egypt's (military government) problem with Hamas is because they deposed the Morsi led MB government.
Thus more in common with Erdogan's regime than the one in Iran.
They were in fact on the side of the Sunni Islamists fighting against Syria's President Assad (left wing Baath Party rule dominated by a minority Alawite Shia) who was supported by Hizbollah and Iran.
The Palestinians are problematic for some in the Arab League – because Moslem Brotherhood and Fatah (secular left like the Baathists of Iraq but to be government of a democratic Palestinian state) are both anathema to the top down rule of dynastic families and military regimes.
Now that is so absurd, that it is just funny. Who arms Hizbollah and Hamas (and for what purpose)? Which nation apart from Russia was most involved in fighting for the Assad regime? Which nation runs the Shia militias in Iraq to the point of influence there akin to that they have with Hizbollah in Lebanon. Who arms the Houthis in Yemen.
I'd say that Hamas in the 80s when it broke away from the Muslim Brotherhood was a very different beast than it is now. There's video floating around of the current leader of Hamas talking about how he's committed to peaceful negotiation with Israel back around 2000.
Iran arms Hizbollah, Hamas and the Houthis but you never see them putting troops into the conflict. The Arab groups are pawns, not equals. They are useful in disrupting the US-Arab alliance. Just like Assad in Syria is useful to Russia. Iran has publicly called Hamas apostates and animals in the past.
You don't see American troops in Ukraine (continuance of a Cold War with Russia means no actual military conflict) or Israel (the US poses as the peace broker) either.
For Iran, as a Revolutionary Islamic Republic, sponsorship of Shia Moslem self-government and anti-West political leadership is its foreign policy. Of course active involvement of its own military outside of self defence (it was invited into Syria) is nation state aggression.
Hamas would appear to be the first Sunni Moslem group it has sponsored and based on having the same goal elimination of the Israeli state.
So why is Sunni Qatar the primary Middle East supporter of Hamas?
Why do you say that it is?
Qatar reached out to Hamas in 2006 at the request of the US to be a middle man in negotiations and it's the home of Al Jazeera so it's not too surprising that Hamas leadership base themselves there. Qatar is ~10% Shia so there's definitely support there and it's a rich oil state.
It's also a bit of the last place left. Saudi cracked down on Hamas after 9/11, Syria kicked them out in 2011, Egypt kicked them out after the 2013 coup which caused the Muslim Brotherhood to lose a lot of its influence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Palestine
Well my answer about the importance of Qatar right now for Israel and Hamas is multiple:
– Is a very strong ally of the US, with a relationship near to that of NATO membership
– Has the largest US military base in the Middle East
– State-influenced Al Jazeera is the primary news feed for much of the Middle East and of EU viewers, and manages to offend everyone in equal measure with their reporting which is admirable
– Harbours most of the Hamas leadership right now
– Is a consistent and massive donor to Gaza via Hamas, which Israel has permitted
– Sufficiently independent from either Saudi Arabia and Iran
– Has normalised relations with Israel
– Has highly skilled diplomatic corps with a very strong track record, even with Mossad
Way too early for anything useful to emerge diplomatically, but it certainly will.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/nz-news/350111844/our-pacific-neighbours-are-allies-not-beneficiaries?utm_source=stuff_website&utm_medium=stuff_referral&utm_campaign=mh_stuff&utm_id=mh_stuff
It's paywalled, but the headline says a lot, and quite a bit more than New Zealand's relationships with nations in the South Pacific.
Just in case it needs stating that the Queenstown-area economy is an airport-fuelled bubble of growth and wealth amidst the otherwise mediocre 90% remainder of New Zealand.
https://www.scene.co.nz/queenstown-news/business/economic-star-still-burning-brightly/
Since the highly publicized event in Hawkes Bay of the state ham-fistedly, attempting to uplift a new born baby, there appears to be a more hands off role from Oranga Tamariki.
In this example there were verbal agreements for the vulnerable child not to be left alone with it's eventual killer.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/133306235/southland-toddler-hit-multiple-times-by-mums-partner-before-death-coroner-says
This is not to pour scorn on the mother nor social workers.
Surely, this is an ideological position of OT. One that appears to be failing our most vulnerable. In a chat with someone in the know, a recent child murder in Wellys, the three adults in the house were all on P, leaving no-one as a protector for the child.
How many more infant's must die, let alone the thousands more harmed, at the hands of their 'care-givers' and family before policy changes?
Naah they totally have the childs best interest at heart
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/131476321/hardest-decision-of-our-lives-foster-parents-return-moana-to-state-care
It's Oranga Tamariki, not Oranga Adult Feels.
It's bullshit is what it is
Yeah, that was soooo evident in the Moana case /sarc/
Anything but the interests of the child at heart.
These seem promising.
https://policy.nz/2023/party-vote/policies/law-justice-and-government/subtopics/family-justice-and-safety
Targeting “the best resources” “to our most vulnerable” – shouldn't be long now.
What do you mean by "not Oranga Adult Feels."?
Paramountcy of the child. No one else matters.
https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1989/0024/latest/DLM149454.html#:~:text=Every%20court%20or%20person%20exercising,section%204A(1)).
Unfortunately "Oranga Adult Feels" are the lens through which that legislation is prioritised and applied.
That's grim reading.
I want to get my head around the situation. How much of this is because of under resourcing and under staffing? Is there an ideological 'capture' among workers and management? Biased reporting by media?
The Moana case was pure ideological capture within OT. Apparently at the case-worker level, but supported by management.
However, on the broader scale OT is damned if they do (uplift children) and damned if they don't (kids being killed, because of drop-kick adults in their life – why didn't OT intervene?)
A child-centred view would (most of the time) result in uplift of the children, and re-settlement either within the wider whanau (if possible) or with long-term foster parents.
Notably this resettlement has to be permanent, or as close to permanent as feasible. The damage done to kids as they ricochet between foster care, to whanau, to parents, and back to foster care, is considerably worse than a stable re-settlement.
OT is mostly parent (mother) centred. While, yes, *if* the Mum can be supported to turn her life around, then this is the best possible outcome. The problem is that most of the time it doesn't work. And, by the time OT admits it isn't working, the kids have been severely (arguably permanently) damaged – or are dead.
Celia Lashlie started advocating for the mums and highlighted the tendency for the 'authorities' let down the vulnerable while at the same time holding them to account for every shortcoming.
I don't think that standing aside while your child is beaten to death is a 'shortcoming'.
Obviously, but failing to supply evidence to WINZ, not getting to appointments on time, truancy/education issues, as examples are merely shortcomings. When compared to the resources, power and control of the state compared to a parent, juggling limited income/ budget priorities, work commitments etc.
Tracey Watkins touches on this (although the article casts more heat than light)
"We also know that members of the household were known to police, and probably to child protection agency Oranga Tamariki (OT) as well.
But OT continues to hide behind privacy as its excuse for refusing to talk about what it knew.
So who is speaking for Baby Ru? Not the people who were last to see him alive. And not OT. The inference is that they are not to blame for his death. But they have failed him, even in death, by refusing to give him a voice."
https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/nz-news/350113478/who-speaking-baby-ru
The only people speaking for Baby Ru are the wider whanau – the ones who cared for him and loved him for the first year of his life, primarily his great aunt, and his uncle.
OT is liable. Concerns about the safety of child within the household were officially raised with OT by the wider whanau. OT did nothing to address the issue. Once again, demonstrating that they are not child centred, but parent centred.
This is such a tragically typical situation, when children bounce back and forward between whanau, foster care, and the primary parent. There is a lot of research about how important it is for a child in the first couple of years to have a stable caregiver. Baby Ru should never have left the care of his great aunt.
The words I'd like to use for the adults living in the house, who either murdered him, or stood aside for others to do so – would not be acceptable on TS.
It's time for a law change, for child murders, because the right to silence has become a right to murder.
Given the "success" rate of State care it is almost always a better option to support the family to care for children.
There are cases where Social workers are in a damned if you do and damned if you don't. Difficult all around.
Easy to judge with 20/20 hindsight. But, without a crystal ball……
Statistically many more kids die and/or are abused in the care of drop-kick parents, than are killed/abused in State care.
I think that you are biased by some of the (tragic) history from the mid-20th century. There are much greater controls and checks on foster parents, than there are on the families that OT is 'supporting' (I've seen actual examples on both sides)
A child-centred approach would look first at whether it's realistic to support the family. But it requires a lot of intervention (no, you can't have care of your children if you live in a house with Meth users; no, you can't have care of your children while you live with someone with a history of family violence; yes, OT caseworkers will be checking up on you and on the people you live with; yes, you have to check with OT before moving; yes, you have to have a police check on any new adult moving into your home).
NB: these are all basic/ongoing checks that foster parents have to pass.
Many people are not comfortable with that level of state intervention. In that case, the child-centred approach is to remove the children from the highly risky environment. If Mum (and it usually is Mum – since Dad is long gone) isn't prepared to put the welfare of her kids first, then the State has to do so.
"Drop-kick parents" = parents who physically abuse their children? And/or perhaps very neglectful parents who are at the opposite end of the parenting spectrum to helicopter parents and snowplow parents?
https://www.govt.nz/browse/family-and-whanau/adoption-and-fostering/fostering-a-child-caregiving/
Maybe Aotearoa NZ needs a ‘fostered generation’ to disrupt the cycle of children of "drop-kick parents" becoming "drop-kick parents" themselves? There but for the grace of God…
https://www.abuseincare.org.nz/
My sympathies are with the kids being physically abused and killed.
Your mileage clearly varies.
And, yes, I have personal acquaintance with people in this situation. Including kids whose lives have been pretty much ruined by the decisions made by parents (and supported by OT). And with foster parents who are doing their best to turn those kids lives around.
I've seen parents who come from really sh*t backgrounds themselves, absolutely determined to make sure their children never suffer what they did. Basically, it requires putting the needs and welfare of your kids first. Something which is really evident isn't present in almost every reported case of abuse – and would be clearly visible to every case-worker involved.
Whanau adoption can work really well – unfortunately it's not supported in many cases by OT – because the mother doesn't want to 'lose' the kids. A classic example of where OT is parent-centred, rather than child-centred. This recent case is a prime example – the baby was safe, cared for, and loved with his great aunt – but dead once he was returned to his mother. I can only imagine the depth of grief the kuia feels.
https://www.teaonews.co.nz/2023/11/07/tell-the-truth-is-the-reremoana-whanau-plea-to-those-responsible-for-the-tragic-death-of-baby-ru/
B, could you spell out what you mean by "your mileage clearly varies" – is it that you believe your "sympathy for the kids being physically abused and killed" is clearly superior to my sympathy?
Did I interpret your (repeated) use of the term "drop-kick parents" correctly? "Drop kick" is a common enough general insult, but I wondered if you meant something more specific in that context, e.g. parents who drop and kick their children. Regardless, the term is unhelpful, imho.
Those are admirable parents – fostering can't be easy, and is potentially a tremendously worthwhile endeavour – definitely part of the solution.
Some recent posts on TS gave been helpful in ordering my thoughts about child welfare and punishment in Aotearoa NZ.
https://thestandard.org.nz/acts-dishonest-youth-offending-policy/
https://thestandard.org.nz/laura-norda-rides-again/
I tautoko yr foster suggestion.
Also adoption. We were on a long waiting list for adoption for years, then got blessed with a conception that is now a lovely 21 yr old.
My mother was adopted and lived in a house with several foster children, growing up in the '40s and '50s.
I can't help but feel (unsurprisingly), the Douglas reforms have had a negative impact on social services as well. Witness Grainee Moss, former OT Chief Executive. From a bio, essentially a budget/balance sheet focussed type, from overseas, that defended the actions of the mis-handled Hawkes Bay uplift.
Bio;https://www.imd.org/news/work-life-balance/going-the-distance-multiple-times/#:~:text=Born%20near%20Belfast%20in%20Northern,a%20manager%20commissioning%20health%20services.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300212679/timeline-oranga-tamariki-chief-executive-grainne-moss-road-to-resignation
A bit like not wanting to drink a beer made by an accountant, OT needs leadership by those that are a little more connected to those they are responsible for.
This seems to be the case in Glenis Philip-Barbara, appointed to the newly-created position (Assistant Māori Children's Commissioner) by children’s commissioner Judge Andrew Becroft.
I see the annointed Leader of the Keystone Kops Koalition is still shooting off his mouth without actually saying anything of substance as usual. <a href=”http://Luxon defends negotiating skills as coalition talks continue Luxon defending his ineptitude.
[link fixed]
Bring back Helen Clark.
Couldn't agree more, much more substance than CLuxon.
Helen knew how to manage Winston. Lots of first class airfares to nice places as Foreign Affairs Minister with 2 other Ministers to do the actual work – Chris Carter for the relationships stuff and the "schmoozing," and Phil Goff to do the grunt work. All Winnie had to do was to turn up, give the speech, shake the paws and have a good time.
Luxo can't be as banal as he sounds. He could be playing a longer game to discredit and overturn MMP.
No. That is exactly the problem here … people understandably think "well, he can't be that bad, so there must be some cunning plan." Opponents are tempted to think it, not just supporters or commentators.
You only have to listen to his longer interviews (though I can appreciate why you wouldn't want to waste your time). Once we're past the scripted soundbites to any real follow-up, interviewers probing for actual answers, he is lost. He – quite literally – has no words. No vocabulary. It's not an act. He is that shallow.
All of which speaks to the ineptitude of Labour.
Going from an unprecedented majority, political capital up the wahoo to burn, to losing to that mob lead by a rookie first term MP.
He must be doing something right.
As I said elsewhere (and is frankly obvious) Labour's failure was not Luxon's achievement.
Can you give any examples of things he has done right? "Not being Labour" is not an answer. Seymour and Peters are "Not Labour" and they run rings round Luxon. The Greens and TPM are not Labour, and have gained support.
The election was a referendum on the government, and they lost. The Labour votes went in 5 different directions (plus the "stay at homes", up 5%).
"Can you give any examples of things he has done right? "
He introduced discipline to a rabble that, you would have to acknowledge, had been prepared to eat their own young, in the desire for power.
Witness Boag, Bridges, Collins, Kuriger etc.
Unified a caucus.
Right up until they cotton on that they've been sold a pup and that Christopher "I was into mergers and acquisitions" Luxon is an empty suit.
Matthew Hooton tells it the way that many see Luxon. A man totally unfitted to the role that he has claimed. (I envy the way that some can present the same ideas and beliefs that I have, but I am unable to present them effectively.)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/matthew-hooton-whatever-happened-to-those-christopher-luxon-negotiating-skills/BHVSDPU53RBTLD55A7R2PTE4CU/
Luxon is a legend, in his own mind.
He so clever and so successful and needs no advice from anyone and has already managed a huge turnaround for the NZ which he said so often was a basket case to today declaring that NZ is a strong progressive country. Wow! Such power. Such skill.
Or is it all a a fundamentalist dream?
Some classic Luxon quotes in today's reporting:
Tells reporters they don't understand confidentiality … (which happened in all previous MMP negotiations).
Says parties turned up with their manifestoes and went through them … (which happened in all previous MMP negotiations).
Election 2023: Coalition talks continue with National planning to remain in Auckland over weekend | Newshub
He's like the guy who listens to a Beatles song and says "hey, you should check this band out, I've just discovered them for you, I'm telling you they're good, listen to my advice".
Things only exist when he finds out about them.
That is exactly how Trump operates. It is though Luxon reads a mythical Self Help book by Trump.
And according to Hooton, Luxon mocked the homework done by David for the conversations and never bothered to ask about Winston's views. Probably because he knew all the answers and preferred his future partners to just do what Luxon tells them to do. Hmmph!
Thanks for that, Ian.
I hope people are finally seeing through the empty man. Not just predictable lefties but swing voters and "soft" Nats.
Luxon had three great gifts. Jami-Lee Ross self-destructed (so Luxon got Botany). Judith Collins self-destructed (so he got the leadership). And Chris Hipkins failed, so Luxon will be PM.
None of those events were because of Luxon's own talents. This is his first test. A laughable failure.
TBH – the negotiation time-frame only seems to matter for political tragics (myself included) and journalists. The rest of NZ are supremely unmoved (indeed, uninterested) by the negotiations.
The test for them will come when they see the policy that the new government puts up – and decide whether it will deal with their primary concerns (cost of living, crime, education)
If you want a tad more Hooten, he is very cynically and darkly good in The Working Group this week. A couple of times him and Grant get a bit boisterous but generally he is on form, especially getting stuck into Luxon.
He doesn't spare the media either. The press gallery, rather than rush about trying to get gotcha soundbites, they may have to read reports, do analysis research etc.
How many would have bet on a deal inside of 2 weeks of the counting of specials?….not many I suspect.
How about "within 5 weeks of your opponent conceding the election"?
It's not Bolger v Clark, English v Ardern. It's Luxon v Incompetence.
Support from ACT: 100% certain. From NZF: 95% certain. Only one outcome possible, and yet he's stuffed it up.
Imagine if he's in a room with other countries' negotiators, who have other options.
… shiver …
Luxon may well be incompetent….however as stated i doubt many would have risked cash on Winston doing a deal inside 2 weeks.
And in the grand scheme of things it means little.
True, the time taken means little. But what it reveals about the strengths of the 3 leaders means a lot. The PM will be the weakest.
We'll get a government, there will be handshakes, Ministers sworn in, etc. Nice positive words will be uttered.
Then they have to make decisions, the harder ones. This was the easy one.
It means nothing more than it did prior to the election…Luxon is still Luxon and Peters and Seymor are the same as they always were.
And sadly politicians gave away most of their real influence decades ago.
The likes of Hooten et al are doing what they always do, stirring an old pot (and being well remunerated for it) and we lap it up.
Meh
What is the grand scheme of things? Hollowing out public services, a war on Māori, selling public assets, a house price explosion?
I suspect your view is a little too local in a globalised economy.
Let google be your friend.
Luxon might have, being a property investor, and he’d have lost the bet with enough egg on his face to bake a pavlova.
I suspect Luxon would only bet with someone elses money….a no lose proposition.
But I ‘d eat a slice of the pav.
I saw the articles today, too, and couldn't believe how well I'd predicted things going. It was all I could see, but it sounded too unlikely that it didn't seem possible things would go the way I predicted. As I've said in earlier posts, if we couldn't have a secure left win, having this kind of outcome will help the left get back in in 2026 more than if the left just scraped in in the recent election.
What next?
I think Luxon will have lost all credibility within the National leadership. No more the "next John Key" reputation, methinks. In politics, you can't afford liabilities. If the dog can't hunt anymore, you shoot it and I think what's keeping Luxon in place now is the total embarrassing and completely unthinkable situation of dumping him in the midst of negotiations. Something tells me Luxon still believes he's doing a good job though. As they say in politics, his tail's being eaten but the message hasn't reached his mind yet. Were I Nicola Willis, I would be clearing out her appointment book for the first part of the new year.
Matthew Hooton told us the inside goss is that Luxon believed he was negotiating from a position of strength against two weaker coalition partners, so made them some lowball offers that insulted them (and, although Hooton didn't spell it out, must have brought Peters and Seymour closer together than ever thought possible).
I agree with Hooton and what he said spoke volumes about the "I'm the great negotiator" atmosphere to this whole situation. I have a slightly different spin on it though.
Many ex-CEO's of big organisations who can't see a future next-step in business for themselves imagine a natural progression to the political arena however unless they spend time learning politics (and have the humility to see themselves at the lower rungs of a new ladder, I might say) such an imagination can be fraught with danger.
Despite what Roger Douglas taught the country about level playing fields, big organisations generally negotiate under situations where the bargaining power of suppliers is low. That means, for example, I might own a big company and need some new computer monitors. My contract is worth having, due to my size, and there are many different suppliers. More to the point, there's not a lot of difference between an HP monitor or a Dell monitor. These factors mean that my big company negotiates with HP and Dell from a position of power and strength (hardly a level playing field at all). To many corporate executives "As long as I win, I don't care if you lose" is good negotiating.
But, politics (and particularly MMP) does not make those distinctions when forming coalitions. Politics is about "win-win" (which can sometimes be another way of saying "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours") and the relative size of the National/ACT/NZF share is out the window to some extent.
Good negotiators from other walks of life learn about something called a BATNA. This stands for Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement. In other words, having a Plan B. It's the plan you fall back on if you can't reach agreement with the person you're negotiating with. Luxon went into the coalition talks without one. He has to reach agreement with Peters and Seymour if he is to save his own face and his party's political future as the most solid right wing party to vote for.
According to Hooton's article, Peters and Seymour went into the talks with a BATNA that was, if they didn't get something meaningful for themselves, they didn't have to risk their reputations by forcing another election, they could offer Luxon the alternative of a National government, backed by their confidence and supply and the difficulty of arguing out each situation as it came up.
Let's say, for instance, that as soon as the preliminary votes were counted, Luxon had gone to the Greens and said "Look, we don't see eye to eye on most things but there are limits to the extent I can cope with Winston holding my face to the stove. Can we at least explore some things I can offer that would allow you to do a confidence and supply deal with me?" He could then have gone into negotiations with the BATNA of a National/ACT government, underpinned by the Greens. Note that he doesn't necessarily have to conclude that negotiation, he just needs to be seen to be exploring it, to give him so much more control over the negotiating process. For those Greenies who say the Green Party would never enter into anything with National, remember that not long ago, who could have seen Peters/Seymour so much in harmony, but pragmatism brought them together.
So, in summary, in this negotiation, Luxon has positioned National into a negotiation where it has no Plan B – it has to reach agreement with both Seymour and Peters. Seymour and Peters, however, have used the time since the election to talk pragmatically and develop a workable Plan B that puts them ahead of the game.
Whatever happens, I think this spells disappointment for those who saw Luxon as the next John Key, both in longevity and in calibre – IMHO.
Did anyone seriously think Luxon was a Key clone.?….we have had a couple of years demonstrating otherwise.
Did anyone seriously think Luxon was a Key clone?
Not that I've seen or heard. But plenty who wanted him to be – which I imagine is what Thinker is saying. And a good deal of what Luxon/Willis (Luxlis?) propose to do is a rerun of the Key playbook.
Good comment.
Luxon was never John Key 2.0, and it's amazing how many people on the left accepted that framing (it's been repeated on here, a lot).
As though they're unable to say "I don't like or support Key but he was good at politics for National, and I don't like or support Luxon and he's bad at politics for National". Understanding your opponent is not approval.
Being a good bullshitter is a common characteristic of politicians. Key was a good bullshitter, Luxon is hopeless at it.
The Green Party would never give c and s to a NACT government, or even a National-NZF one.
They might offer c and s to a National minority government (together they are a majority) if Luxon showed them what he had negotiated with ACT and NZF and would they please save him and the country from the consequences of his first attempt at governance.
The ultimate fall back position for National, is talking to the Greens.
Help with affording their tax cuts
National can guarantee its landlord friendly policies would help hold rent levels down by agreeing to the Greens 3% rent increase cap – they do believe what they say don't they?
They can abide by our international committments – Paris Accords. They do say we have bi-partisan foreign policy don't they?
They can agree to increase the MW and continue with Fair Pay Agreements/Industry Awards. Because they do not want locals to have to go to Oz to get a fair wage do they? And they do need a rising tax take to manage the governments finances don't they?
And continue with the state house building (and buying) programme and the shared equity scheme for first home buyers and take note of Winston Peters warning about planning for future aged care needs. They do believe in a home ownership based democracy and income based rent provision for those in need, don't they?
gisborne man is komutu.
Don’t fuck with te taniwha
Gisborne man could not catch me and put me in his hinaki so he cheated useing the Mental Health Act against me you see whanau if the neanderthals can't win fairly then they cheat like the devil himself.
Ka kite Ano
Gisborne man could not catch me and put me in his hinaki so he cheated useing the Mental Health Act against me you see whanau if the neanderthals can't win fairly then they cheat like the devil himself.
Ka kite
Exactly like what he did to my uncle 46 years ago
Minority poor people can't sue the system for Mel practice. In other words the system bends over the poor and ##### them we can't sue.
The rich can sue any time they want.
WTF
They say the great acc experiment it's a lie they new exactly what would happen with acc they taken the poorest right to sue government or private enterprises for our abuse of human rights indigenous rights. Its fraud they broadcast lies about the system to make the nieve to believe there system is perfect.
Its shitting on poor people and the rich doesn't give a fuck about the poorest
tangata. that is why none of the system negative stats for the poorest tangata never decrease9
https://youtu.be/iZpnH4CD8Js?si=lNrm6KJYx4Yd-BcX
https://youtu.be/an_4rfU8y8k?si=39laRoFisE1AysUx