Open mike 21/08/2016

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 21st, 2016 - 134 comments
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134 comments on “Open mike 21/08/2016”

  1. Rod Oram – earth’s hopeful future

    “It’s abundantly clear we have to embark on deep change so we can achieve the biggest goal humankind has ever attempted. It is not to save the planet. It will survive – even if we don’t. It will adapt as it has to previous geological eras. Over tens of millions of years vastly different life-forms and ecosystems will evolve, ones shaped by prevailing conditions.

    Our goal has to be to save ourselves. To do so we must give this ecosystem that gives us life the best chance it has to recover, and to continue to support us.”

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/83327044/rod-oram-earths-hopeful-future

    • weka 1.1

      Great to see someone Oram’s position saying this.

      (ecosystem recovery and assistance from humans in that IS saving the planet 😉 ).

    • Garibaldi 1.2

      Great. Anybody who accepts this(and I do ) must also accept that Capitalism, as we know it, will have to go. Capitalism is incompatible with saving the Planet.

      • Colonial Viper 1.2.1

        CORRECT

        Capitalism and consumerism as societal values and economic structures have to be defanged, declawed, and relegated to being nothing more than a minor feature of daily life.

        • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1.1

          Capitalism and consumerism as societal values and economic structures have to be defanged, declawed, and relegated to being nothing more than a minor feature of daily life historical oddity.

          FTFY

          • Colonial Viper 1.2.1.1.1

            Well, I think there is still a place for some inter-community scale, family store scale capitalism, as well as local models of self financing, but we may differ on that point.

      • Draco T Bastard 1.2.2

        Capitalism is incompatible with Life.

      • b waghorn 1.2.3

        na capitalism is just a man made tool , and like all tools if you have the right safegaurds it can be useful, it’s just that we have let the greedy use it for their purposes .

        • Colonial Viper 1.2.3.1

          Capitalism and consumerism today is not just a “man made tool”.

          It has been deliberately engineered to become the fundamental societal value system, driver for activity and international priority.

          • b waghorn 1.2.3.1.1

            yes but with strong government it could be taken back and used just as a tool or system to get things done.
            By this i mean something like.
            The eu decides that all packaging will have to be biodegradable in ten years,
            now some will winge , some will say it’s undoable , but some good little capitalist will see an opportunity and go to work trying to corner the market.

            • Colonial Viper 1.2.3.1.1.1

              I don’t think you understand the life destroying nature of capitalism.

              The way to reduce the problem of packaging and pollution is to reduce the amount of things people buy and use in the west by 80%.

              Not make new types of packaging for the 2020s.

              • Foreign waka

                Two major things destroy this planet: 1/ far too many people 2/ every one of those wants what the neighbor has.
                No matter what system you put in place – theoretically soviets Marxist system should have brought equal equilibrium for all but it didn’t – it is human nature that actually gets in the way. We are wired to destroy and not to build despite what some would like to belief. This is what we have to accept and learn to negotiate, our true nature. No one can say that they haven’t cotton on and by how far all is deteriorated, I would not hold my breath and unfortunately humanity will only learn when it gets a huge head clip to remind them that we are just a blip on the radar of the cosmos.

                • Colonial Viper

                  1) The richest 10% of people in the western world consume 60% of the world’s resources. This is not a question of “far too many people.” It is a question of the a few hundred million people in the rich west eating the rest of the world.

                  2) The only people who “wants what the neighbour has” are those who have learnt to greed, venality, jealousy and covetousness. I don’t want a yacht like my neighbour has and I don’t want a new HSV like my other neighbour has. You may think that that most people are basically venal, but perhaps that is simply only most people around your circles.

                  • Foreign waka

                    Your comments are always from the perspective that is angry and almost hateful. When you do that it becomes personal without having any grounds or indeed facts to support that. So I try to explain this differently:
                    1/ too many people – lets look at this globally. The greed (I want what my neighbor has) is destroying the forest and with that the reservoir for rain water exchange in the atmosphere. This in turn leads to droughts and the arable land that is available gets overused. If this continues the land we can use to feed us all will diminish even further and with that the means of sustaining the many people and growing population. Scientists have opened the Pandora’s box of gen modification and this will most likely increase the impasse in the future. We see the bees and pollinators dying already. Water: as we have seen in Hawks bay recently, water contamination will increase as aquifers are being contaminated because it is not enough to have a few cattle, it has to be more. The ground water is pumped and the lower the water table the more likely salination and contamination will occur.
                    2/ It is this “more” that will be humanity’s undoing.
                    Nature will be a great equalizer in that game of survival. This is not about money, this is about a finite world that cannot sustain an ever increasing population worldwide. I
                    If we wouldn’t be here, I doubt that any animal or plant would miss us. Some might be jubilant….

                    • whispering kate

                      I agree with you Foreign Waka but what always does amuse me is – do the 10% honestly think once they have brought about complete planet collapse, that they will be able to start afresh from their bunkers or what ever and have the capacity to start again. That they cannot see that it will be their undoing as well, is just is too ridiculous for words but they are quite prepared to go over the cliff with the rest of us just for the sake of more consuming and greed. It’s like they are happy to take on a death wish for it all to occur.

                      I suppose in their utter selfishness they just think “well our generation will all be dead so what the hell”. Don’t they have grandchildren to have a thought for their futures and the carnage as society breaks down, that they will face.

                      The people who do care in this world are hopelessly powerless against the filthy rich of this world who can buy and control countries at will.

        • marty mars 1.2.3.2

          Good capitalism is an oxymoron – the model is exploitive, sometimes a lot, sometimes a little, but always with some, therefore it is no good. Assuming you don’t like exploitation that is.

          • Draco T Bastard 1.2.3.2.1

            +1

          • b waghorn 1.2.3.2.2

            Capitalism is neither good nor bad .we need a system to get things done , and capitalism gets things done, it just needs balancing with strong government a watchful eye and a good bit of socialism .

            • marty mars 1.2.3.2.2.1

              No sorry mate that is incorrect imo

            • TheExtremist 1.2.3.2.2.2

              “Capitalism is neither good nor bad .we need a system to get things done , and capitalism gets things done, it just needs balancing with strong government a watchful eye and a good bit of socialism .”

              Or shorter: Democratic Socialism. I’m a big fan of the Nordic Model.

              I am nonetheless amused at CV’s opining on Capitalism while being a Trump supporter. Cognative dissonance is strong with him (or her)

              • McFlock

                Yeah I like the various scandinavian models. There’s a lot we can learn in everything from criminal justice to post-natal care.

              • b waghorn

                aah I’ve wondered what my political label would be , it would appear that at this stage i am a democratic socialist. Which nz party fits the bill most do you think?

                • One Two

                  Will label improve you as a human being?

                  Attachement to politics or labels is not something to aspire to

                • Colonial Viper

                  Well, NZ Labour espouses the values of democratic socialism, according to its constitution.

                  Guffffaw

    • Bill 1.3

      I wondered recently if I was right enough in perceiving a certain leakage in the levees that shore up ‘business as usual’. The first inkling came from the Guardian in a piece that not only directly quoted eminent scientists in the field expressing fairly deep misgivings about our present position and direction, but questioned this whole notion of removing carbon from the atmosphere. Previously that’s just been taken as a read by the likes of the Guardian.

      And I do like that Rod characterises the need for radical action as an “adventure”…

  2. I shared a meal with Rod Oram 2 years ago and we talked about the very thing he wrote about today. Great oaks, little acorns, etc 🙂

    • weka 2.1

      Heh, nice one Robert.

    • Macro 2.2

      I was at a workshop at which Rod facilitated the discussion around action on Climate Change yesterday. Rod has been active in this area for some years now. I am not surprised with his comments. He certainly understands that the economy is a subset of the environment not the other way round.

  3. North 4

    Pathetic ! On Q+A Corin Dan giving Parata the sweetest platform, like a paid ‘pretend’ interviewer. It’s disgraceful really. He just sits there watching Parata go all ‘aspirational’. FFS !

    • Halfcrown 4.1

      I have always refused to watch “A Political Party Broadcast on behalf of the National Party” called Q&A

      • mosa 4.1.1

        Halfcrown i used too watch Q+A when it first started and even though the late Paul Holmes was the host and always could be relied upon too give the left a good kick i stuck with it because there was no other in depth political coverage at the time.
        As the media has moved away from unbiased coverage in favour of the right wing perspective Q+ A has regrettably gone the same way.
        Corrin Dann indulges anyone from the government side but watch him change into a nasty scowling arrogant monster when its anyone from the left, its real hatred and i dont know why anyone from the left of politics would want to appear to be treated this way and its the viewer who wants too be informed that misses out because Dann wont allow the victim too talk and get their point across basicly its just bloody bullying.
        It just angers up the blood so i dont watch any of them and have pleasant no stress Sunday as god intended.

        Campbell had Key worked and looked what happened to him.

    • Paul 4.2

      Corin Dann knows what happens to independent media people.

      Paula Penfold.
      John Campbell.
      Jon Stephenson.
      Nicky Hager.

      When extremists like red delusion and ‘man in the middle’ ( never knew Genghis Khan , Josef Stalin and Benito Mussolini were men in the middle) rant on about Venezuela and North Korea, maybe they should look at the state of our own media.

      Here are some starters for them.

      Holding power to account? Or playing along for fun?http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201811741

      Is the weakening of our news media fuelling a democratic deficit? If so, what should the media do? Kicking against complacency
      http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201811741

      John Oliver’s show on Journalism could easily refer to NZ media as well.

      • Paul 4.2.1

        And listen to Bomber in his show from Friday.
        His final word at 26:10

      • Paul 4.2.2

        Complacent Nation.
        Epitomised by the Herald.

        Today’s top 10 online headings……………

        Live updates of the penultimate day of the Rio Olympics.
        ‘Just Bledi Awful’ – Aussie’s reaction
        Girl who killed her own family set free (Canadian crime story)
        ‘Righto, we need to take this to the police’ (the Herald appears more concerned about the All Blacks being spied on than the whole country)
        KFC’s secret recipe uncovered
        All Blacks v Australia: Player ratings
        Revealed: The best and worst airline food
        Cold case mystery: Is he still alive? (Australian crime story)
        Who is the lucky punter who won $13.3m?
        Could Hamblin win rare Olympic medal?

        The poisoning of 4000 New Zealand citizens?
        Not as important.

      • Reddelusion 4.2.3

        Your posts should be accompanied by violins Paul

        • Paul 4.2.3.1

          Don’t you care about the decline of democracy in this country?
          Or is Venezuela’s democracy your only concern?

      • Macro 4.2.4

        ‘man in the middle’ gets his name because of where his nose is, in relation to John Keys cheeks.

      • Naki man 4.2.5

        “Corin Dann knows what happens to independent media people.

        Paula Penfold.
        John Campbell.
        Jon Stephenson.
        Nicky Hager”

        Independent media people, John Cambell and Nicky Hager, for fucks sake Paul
        you really are delusional. You win most stupid comment of the week.

  4. That’s great, Marty. If anyone wants to learn how to graft, I’ll teach you 🙂

    • weka 5.1

      How long does it take for a new graft on an established tree to fruit? For an Apple tree? Pears? Plums? Cherry? (I’m guessing plums and cherries are sooner).

      Cool link marty.

      • A graft “takes” quickly, days or weeks, depending on the type of graft. I do a simple cleft graft that binds more slowly, as it’s done at the end of winter and moves with the rise of the sap. Bud grafts are done when things are cranking, and take a shorter time. In any case, grafting fruit-bearing scions onto decorative trees is fun and funny.

  5. joe90 6

    Fifty years ago the Gurindji people walked off Lord Vesty’s Northern Territory Wave Hill station.

    .

    Warning: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers should be aware that this article contains images, voices and names of deceased people.

    Fifty years ago, the Gurindji people of the Northern Territory made their name across Australia with the 1966 Wave Hill Walk-Off.

    It was a landmark event that inspired national change: equal wages for Aboriginal workers, as well as a new Land Rights Act.

    Although it took another two decades, the Gurindji also became one of the first Aboriginal groups to reclaim their traditional lands.

    Many people know a small part of the walk-off story because of the song From Little Things, Big Things Grow about 200 stockmen, house servants and their families who walked off Wave Hill Station on 23 August 1966, in protest at appalling pay and living conditions.

    But what is not widely known is that the walk-off followed more than 80 years of massacres and killings, stolen children and other abuses by early colonists.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-19/the-untold-story-being-the-1966-wave-hill-walk-off/7764524

    [audio src="http://indigenousrights.net.au/__data/assets/mp3_file/0018/413550/f56.mp3" /]

    Vincent Lingiari introduces the recording in his language, which he then translates into English.

    My name is Vincent Lingiari, came from Daruragu, Wattie Creek station.

    That means that I came down here to ask all these fella here about the land rights. What I got story from my old father or grandfather that land belongs to me, belongs to Aboriginal men before the horses and the cattle come over on that land where I am sitting now. That is what I have been keeping on my mind and I still got it on my mind. That is all the words I can tell you.

    ‘Gurindji Blues’

    Poor bugger me, Gurindji
    My name is Vincent Lingiari, came from Daruragu, Wattie Creek station.
    Me bin sit down this country
    Long time before the Lord Vestey
    Allabout land belongin’ to we
    Oh poor bugger me, Gurindji.

    Poor bugger blackfeller; Gurindji
    Long time work no wages, we,
    Work for the good old Lord Vestey
    Little bit flour; sugar and tea
    For the Gurindji, from Lord Vestey
    Oh poor bugger me.

    Poor bugger me, Gurindji,
    Man called Vincent Lingiari
    Talk long allabout Gurindji
    ‘Daguragu place for we,
    Home for we, Gurindji:
    But poor bugger blackfeller, Gurindji
    Government boss him talk long we
    ‘We’ll build you house with electricity
    But at Wave Hill, for can’t you see
    Wattie Creek belong to Lord Vestey’
    Oh poor bugger me.

    Poor bugger me, Gurindji
    Up come Mr: Frank Hardy
    ABSCHOL too and talk long we
    Givit hand long Gurindji
    Buildim house and plantim tree
    Longa Wattie Creek for Gurindji
    But poor bugger blackfeller Gurindji
    Government Law him talk long we
    ‘Can’t givit land long blackfeller, see
    Only spoilim Gurindji’
    Oh poor bugger me.

    Poor bugger me, Gurindji
    Peter Nixon talk long we:
    ‘Buy you own land, Gurindji
    Buyim back from the Lord Vestey’
    Oh poor bugger me, Gurindji.
    Poor bugger blackfeller Gurindji
    Suppose we buyim back country
    What you reckon proper fee?
    Might be flour, sugar and tea
    From the Gurindji to Lord Vestey?
    Oh poor bugger me.

    Oh ngaiyu luyurr ngura-u
    Sorry my country, Gurindji.

    Ted Egan

    • North 6.1

      Thanks Joe 90. Makes ya weep.

    • Macro 6.2

      Regretfully Joe – it isn’t much better even today. The billions of dollars that are “invested” in the indigenous people of Australia mainly ends up in State administration and people getting rich at the expense of those who really need it. The land on which aboriginal communities live is State owned – not the peoples – as are the houses and all the facilities. The first aborigine ,albert namatjirato be granted Australian citizenship was in 1957.

    • ropata 6.3

      Read a beautiful book about Aboriginal culture recently… really moving

      Mutant Message Down Under is the fictional account of an American woman’s spiritual odyssey through outback Australia. An underground bestseller in its original self-published edition, Marlo Morgan’s powerful tale of challenge and endurance has a message for us all.

      Summoned by a remote tribe of nomadic Aborigines to accompany them on walkabout, the woman makes a four-month-long journey and learns how they thrive in natural harmony with the plants and animals that exist in the rugged lands of Australia’s bush. From the first day of her adventure, Morgan is challenged by the physical requirements of the journey—she faces daily tests of her endurance, challenges that ultimately contribute to her personal transformation.

      By traveling with this extraordinary community, Morgan becomes a witness to their essential way of being in a world based on the ancient wisdom and philosophy of a culture that is more than 50,000 years old.

  6. The Chairman 7

    John Minto (The Keep Our Assets Canterbury Mayoral candidate) outlined his six key policies at a campaign launch on Saturday.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/83384157/john-minto-says-he-will-fight-widespread-homelessness-in-chch-if-he-becomes-mayor

    On the mayoral front, Christchurch has three candidates. How will Minto fare?

    Thoughts?

    • Reddelusion 7.1

      Poorly

    • The Chairman 7.2

      Minto is giving voters of Christchurch the opportunity to keep their assets.

      It will be interesting to see if the people of Christchurch will support him.

      • Wayne 7.2.1

        Policies are not the only basis upon which voters cast their votes.

        Overall credibility, able to bring along a team, general fiscal prudence, impact on rates, capability of the incumbent all bear upon the voters choice.

        Lianne will get back in easily.

        • ropata 7.2.1.1

          Fiscal prudence like a great big fuck off convention centre and rugby stadium? Or fiscal prudence involving buying up tracts of prime central city land in order to prop up land prices artificially for the governments mates? Or the environmentally prudent moves by ECan to allow shitty farmers to steal all the good water?

          Democracy has failed in Canterbury, destroyed by the disaster capitalists and abetted by that waste of space Brownlee

        • The Chairman 7.2.1.2

          Indeed Wayne, policies are not the only basis upon which voters cast their votes.

          However, you seem to be implying Minto lacks fiscal prudence and a number of other traits required.

          Minto has far more credibility than the current ex Labour incumbent that seems to support the corporate agenda status quo.

          This local election is going to be a battle between an alternative left-fielder and the corporate status quo.

          Minto winning will be akin to Peters taking Northland. And we all know the right didn’t think he had a show.

          It will be an interesting one to watch. Do Christchurch voters have an similar appetite for change – or will they cement in the corporate status quo?

      • Reddlusion 7.2.2

        You don’t need to wait, they won’t

    • Macro 7.3

      Pity he is not in Auckland – at least then I would have someone to vote for.

    • Craig H 7.4

      Second. He’s unlikely to beat Lianne Dalziel, and the other candidate is a joke candidate.

      • The Chairman 7.4.1

        If Minto fails to win but still performs well (making it a close race) it will send a shiver up the spine of the establishment. As it will indicate the tide is turning.

  7. Paul 8

    The best news source in the UK.

    The canary used to alert miners of the presence of noxious gases. It has since become a metaphor for truth tellers in a dangerous world. We talk to the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Canary – the newest arrival in Britain’s online journalism – Kerry-Anne Mendoza.

  8. joe90 9

    About that photo.

    The guy who took the little boy's viral pic & wrote this account took a selfie w/ Zinki child beheaders. #Syria pic.twitter.com/yxiVWl6tk6— Walid (@walid970721) August 18, 2016

    If u doubt that Raslan took photo, see him taking pics & wearing same shirt as he wore in selfie w/beheaders #Syria pic.twitter.com/TNcHlyDNB1— Walid (@walid970721) August 19, 2016

    @GissiSim other than fraternize & take selfies w/child beheaders. He's no journalist, he's clearly a zinki terrorist pic.twitter.com/UGvq9NsEll— Walid (@walid970721) August 19, 2016

  9. Leftie 10

    Davies highlights case of mentally ill man

    Labour MP Kelvin Davies has gone public about his role in helping a mentally ill man and argues it shows a need for better services.
    “I stopped a guy from killing himself last night,” Mr Davies posted on his Facebook page.
    He says the man, whom he knows, texted him from Dunedin to say “he’s had enough. He’s going to end it”.
    Mr Davies said he stopped on the side of the road and talked to the man for an hour.
    After a stand-off and confrontation police took the man to accident and emergency services where he got medical treatment for the harm he did to himself.
    But there was no treatment for “his actual problem”, and he was given a taxi chit to get home where he had no power, heat or food.
    He says the man is a hard worker and he has complex issues.
    Mental health services “must do their job regardless” of how complex needs are.

    <a href="https://nz.news.yahoo.com/top-stories/a/32395190/davies-highlights-case-of-mentally-ill-man/#page1

    • weka 10.1

      That yahoo article containts mistakes (Davis not Davies for a start).

      Having a look at Davis’ FB page, good on him and Curran for making something happen. However he does have a bit of a hero complex and seems largely ignorant (or willfully ignorant) of why our mental health services are the way they are.

      There are bloody good reasons for why the state can’t just section people willy nilly, and many of those reasons are because of serious abuses of power in the past. The big push towards community mental health in recent decades, supported by Labour, was meant to establish broader support so that it wouldn’t just be left to the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff services. Massive fail on that, and a classic example of neoliberal co-option of good ideas and well intentioned people.

      Davis can bang his fist on the table over this all he likes, but until there is a govt that addresses poverty, and then works for the wellbeing of all people, then what he will get is tinkering around the edges.

      Besides all that, the Southern DHB is in a mess and as a politician he should be addressing that. Blaming emergncy psych services for things that are often outside their control is not helping. Those psych services were failing under the last Labour govt too. If he is serious about this issue he needs to step up with some solid policy on what will make a difference. Making out that staff should break the law, esp where that law is designed to protect people, is just not on.

      • Graeme 10.1.1

        There’s a lot about caring for someone who’s unwell that isn’t as you’d expect, coming from normal society, and without wider family experience. The first few times you expect the process to more objective, like a broken arm. But it’s not, it’s this amazing, complex interaction of patient and clinician, fear rebellion and trust, liberty privacy and control, and someone who is tearing to pieces but can think everything is fine.

        I’ve had to be part of catching my partner at the bottom of the cliff about every six years and am slowly learning more and more each time. I wish I knew what I know now 20 yeas ago, and I’ll learn a lot more yet. But Kelvin sounds like I did 15 years ago. We expect the process to work in a concise and determined way. It doesn’t, but it can and does work, in a patient centred way.

        I hope that Kelvin will learn on from this experience to understand the process and journey that an unwell person follows to live within their world.

        • weka 10.1.1.1

          Thoughtful comment Graeme. I think it’s one of the downsides of the push to see mental illness as the same as physical disease. People end up thinking it should be that straightforward.

  10. rhinocrates 11

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/aug/16/secret-history-trumpism-donald-trump

    Covers quite a bit of ground, but a few main points:

    Trumpism has a deep-rooted appeal in a disenfranchised blue collar right excluded by a managerial technocratic ruling class post WWII (a class championed as the face of new conservatism by William F Buckley).

    What it shares with the left, and makes it attractive to some nominal or former leftists is its opposition to neoliberalism and managerialism.

    However, any pretence that the racism and something involving brown shirts and silly walks or a tendency to wear bedsheets and set crosses on fire is merely incidental or an embarrassing fringe is naive at best. Reactionary racial and sexual supremacism is intrinsic to the movement and many of the founding figures and current inciters are unashamed racist nationalists. An endorsement of Trump from the leader of the American N*** Party should be no surprise.

    Mention is given to the publicity-hungry trolls of the “alt-right” such as Milo Yiannopoulos, who have seized on it as a stage to act out their own narcissism.

    Makes an interesting parallel with this, examining the decline of liberal democracy:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/08/the_week_democracy_died_how_brexit_nice_turkey_and_trump_are_all_connected.html

    • ropata 11.1

      A left wing journo was invited to Milo Yiannopoulos and the Republican shitshow… what she saw should scare anyone with functioning nervous system.
      View at Medium.com

      What’s happening to this country has happened before, in other nations, in other anxious, violent times when all the old certainties peeled away and maniacs took the wheel. It’s what happens when weaponised insincerity is applied to structured ignorance. Donald Trump is the Gordon Gekko of the attention economy, but even he is no longer in control. This culture war is being run in bad faith by bad actors who are running way off-script, and it’s barely begun, and there are going to be a lot of refugees.

      • Colonial Viper 11.1.1

        The Democratic Party could have easily avoided all of this by picking Bernie Sanders.

        Instead they picked the weaker candidate, Clinton, who always polled much more weakly against Donald Trump.

        So the US elite will reap the results of what they have sown.

        • rhinocrates 11.1.1.1

          While you may see Trump as a stick with which to beat the elites, that stick will beat the rest of the people too, particularly those with darker skins. That’s particularly callous schadenfreude.

          • Colonial Viper 11.1.1.1.1

            Firstly, I think that under either Trump or Clinton, the multi-decades long income stagnation and collapse of the US middle class will continue.

            Secondly, my point stands: if the Democratic Party wanted the stronger anti-Trump candidate, one who was polling far more strongly against Trump and carried far less questionable political baggage, they could have chosen him.

            They didn’t.

        • ropata 11.1.1.2

          Yes I’m afraid so. Bernie and Corbyn are actually the reasonable face of a wider movement, shoving them aside will not solve anything, it will just further delay the needed reforms that WILL occur one way or another.

          The Republicans could have avoided this insanity as well, instead of sucking up to the Tea Party idiots and hamming it up for fox news. It’s a party on life support, i wonder if their Wall St backers are sick of them too.

          • rhinocrates 11.1.1.2.1

            Indeed. The Democrats said of the working class that “they have nowhere else to go” and the Republicans saw them as useful shock troops in the form of the Tea Party but never imagined that they’d get up on their hind legs.

            If I were voting in the American election, I’d want to vote for a unicorn, not choosing Nixon over Mussolini. We can be grateful for MMP at least allowing alternative voices in government rather than the duopoly that results from FPP.

        • rhinocrates 11.1.1.3

          Analysis of polling by Nate Silver’s organisation, continually updated with useful explanations of its implications for the electoral college etc.

          http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

          • Colonial Viper 11.1.1.3.1

            Scott Adams has a far better grip on what is actually going on vis a vis Trump/Clinton than Nate Silver does.

            • rhinocrates 11.1.1.3.1.1

              Admittedly he described my former workplace very accurately in Dilbert

              Is this some joke that went over my head or is there a Scott Adams who is a statistician with extensive access to data and algorithms to process it and not a satirical cartoonist?

              • Colonial Viper

                Well, Adams isn’t a statistician or pollster, you are correct in that.

                But I think his rationale that a lot of people are refusing to interpersonally admit their support for Trump is worthy of note.

                • rhinocrates

                  And his support for this assertion is…? Looking at his blog post on the subject, not much.

                  Carl Sagan’s “Baloney Detection Kit” from The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark :

                  1. Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”

                  Anecdotes and claims about having to say that he supported Clinton for his own physical safety(!). No facts given, merely anecdote and gut instinct.

                  2. Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.

                  No evidence, hence no debate.

                  3. Arguments from authority carry little weight — “authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

                  Not an expert.

                  4. Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.

                  Vague gestures in this direction, nothing substantive, resorts to gut instinct.

                  5. Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.

                  Hoooo boy!

                  6. Quantify. If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.

                  NOPE.

                  7. If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise) — not just most of them.

                  Nope. Gut instinct again.

                  8. Occam’s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.

                  Hypothesis has no evidence, supposes unexplained forces at work to an unknown degree.

                  9. Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle — an electron, say — in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.

                  Too vague to be falsifiable, contains a bit of handwaving in the manner of “I could be wrong, but…”

                  So, I’ll have mine on rye with mustard.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Where’s the evidence that any of Sagan’s assertions and heuristics are relevant to and valid for predicting election results?

                    OK that’s just me being smartarse but Nate Silver’s organisation and algorithms also gave Trump a near zero percent chance of being where he is now.

                    • Poission

                      NS was not even wrong on Trump.

                      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn5OAX4WgAQb5S7.jpg:large

                      He does not understand stochastic probability.

                    • rhinocrates

                      Sagan is simply summarising the universal scientific method. That’s how science works. It makes predictions based on the best available data at the time.

                      Naturally as time passes through the campaign, new events will happen, new data will be acquired. You ignore the fact that Silver is analysing polls, not measuring an invariable predetermined event. Clearly a campaign is not a static object but a process. In the early stages of the data gathering process, it is to be expected that wild results will be produced.

                      At this point the reasonable assumption based on quantified data and reasonable analysis and extrapolation is that Trump will still lose. There is a possibility that Trump may win, and it’s greater than the chance that a unicorn will win. However, I still think that Silver’s polling is far superior to Adam’s entrails and a Trump win is therefore very unlikely.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Thanks Poisson.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Rhinocrates, I ask you again, where is the evidence that using the “universal scientific method” to predict the outcome of US Presidential elections is statistically superior than any other method?

                      How is it that Nate Silver’s organisation can assign 6:1 odds in favour of Clinton and have that taken seriously, when he has been outright wrong about Trump relatively recently.

                      IMO it’s going to be an easy Trump win come November. I can accept that you believe that opinion flies in the face of all the objective scientific evidence.

      • marty mars 11.1.2

        Good read though tough – shows what is really happening and it is scarey. Trump and his minions a true horror story.

    • b waghorn 12.1

      I tell you what though they just played a bit of a his last couple of his speech’s on prime news , now if i was someone who paid little attention to politics what he was saying would of grabbed my attention.

      And all clinton did was tweet a sulky tweet inresponse.

  11. Ad 13

    The Labour Mayor of London tells Corbyn to leave.
    Even though Corbyn will win against Owens.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/20/ditch-jeremy-corbyn-before-too-late-sadiq-khan-tells-labour

    Khan is putting his mark in as Corbyn’s successor.
    Once the inevitable purge and split occurs, of course.

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      What a little shit head Khan is.

      Apparently Corbyn makes Labour so unelectable that Khan went on to win the Mayoralty. Oh wait.

      Another Labour 1%’er shit head.

  12. Paul 14

    Brighter future.

    Family in illegally converted garage faces eviction

    A family living in a South Auckland garage faces eviction in October because the landlord converted it into a flat without a council permit.
    Samoanagalo Ioelu, Nick Mah Yen and their 11-month-old son Charlie have been living in the Manurewa garage since their landlord converted it into a three-room flat just after Charlie was born.
    From the street, the building still looks like a conventional garage with a roller door taking up most of the frontage.
    Behind the door, the garage now boasts a small living room with a large mat covering the floor, a bedroom and a bathroom for which Ioelu and Mah Yen pay $220 a week.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11698404

    • Pat 15.1

      “…Fukuyama writes in a recent excellent essay in Foreign Affairs: “‘Populism’ is the label that political elites attach to policies supported by ordinary citizens that they don’t like.” Populism is a movement against the status quo. It represents the beginnings of something new, though it is generally much clearer about what it is against than what it is for. It can be progressive or reactionary, but more usually both.”

      yes, he’s no slouch…nailed it.

      “The re-emergence of class should not be confused with the labour movement. They are not synonymous: this is obvious in the US and increasingly the case in the UK. Indeed, over the last half-century, there has been a growing separation between the two in Britain. The re-emergence of the working class as a political voice in Britain, most notably in the Brexit vote, can best be described as an inchoate expression of resentment and protest, with only a very weak sense of belonging to the labour movement.”

  13. North 16

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/destiny-church-co-founder-splashes-150k-mercedes-her-second-2016

    ‘Imelda’ Tamaki…….a disgustingly malodorous nugget of over-coiffed shit.

  14. Pat 17

    “If we cannot halt the emissions of carbon dioxide, what can we do?
    In the end, the only hope we have is to find a way to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere once it has got there. Even the IPCC has admitted that we will have to find a way to extract carbon dioxide from the air. The trouble is that they don’t just how we can do that. The most favoured scheme is known as BECCS: bio-energy with carbon capture and storage. Essentially, you plant trees and bushes over vast swaths of ground. These grow, absorbing carbon dioxide in the process. Then you burn the wood to run power plants while trapping, liquefying and storing the carbon dioxide that is released.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/21/arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-summer-next-year

    • weka 17.1

      We can halt emissions. And even if we did have CCS tech we’d still need to do that. What part of finite planet do people not get?

      • Pat 17.1.1

        the part where they have to change their lifestyle.

        • weka 17.1.1.1

          Ok, so people don’t want to change their lifestyles and this makes them think they can defy physics? Some people sure, but I think mostly it’s more a process of desperation. My reply was to point out that there are better thing to do with that desperation than go to fantasty land.

          • Pat 17.1.1.1.1

            Im more inclined to think its a case of not wishing to think about it or being more focused on perceived more pressing needs…..that can be considered fantasyland (or denial) but it is a prevalent state.

  15. Andre 18

    There’s a few other possibilities. For just one instance, currently concrete is a major climate nasty mostly due to fossil fuels burned for process heat and the CO2 released by chemical reactions in cement production, However, concrete also absorbs CO2 back out of the atmosphere as it cures.

    Simply changing the process heat source to renewable electricity plus capture and storage of the CO2 released during calcination would turn conventional concrete into a small net carbon sink rather than a large emitter.

    But there’s also processes that create unconventional cements suitable for concrete that absorb CO2 during manufacture, rather than releasing it. Which would be even better.

    http://arizonaenergy.org/News_10/News_Feb10/Calera%20and%20Novacem%20use%20concrete%20to%20capture%20CO2.htm

    • Andre 18.1

      Sorry, that was intended to be a reply to Pat at 17.

      • Pat 18.1.1

        there appear to be many proposals for carbon capture, however as far as I can see those investigating the options all seem to come to same conclusion that what is currently feasible (even potentially) lack the capacity to remove the volumes required….that may not be so into the future but there is also a time constraint factor…no point in having a process in 50 -100 years time if we’re already extinct.

        • Andre 18.1.1.1

          Personally I reckon human extinction in 50 to 100 years is very unlikely. Either massive nuclear war, or the oceans turning anoxic (apparently has happened before so non-zero probability). I reckon the sight of billions dying in the tropics will scare the rest of the planet to take enough action that there will still be habitable refuge areas in high latitudes.

          • Pat 18.1.1.1.1

            if billions are dying in the tropics (or anywhere) I would suggest it will be past the point of no return…..as to anoxic oceans we may be well on the way already….when the food chain collapses the resulting extinction events will be rapid so 50 -100 years may seem hyperbolic but not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility.

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