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Open mike 23/09/2021

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, September 23rd, 2021 - 98 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

98 comments on “Open mike 23/09/2021 ”

  1. Gezza 1



    "The Government yesterday announced a $45 million investment in police on Wednesday, including $15.496 million for a new Tactical Response Model, an additional 78 constabulary staff and 28 intelligence analysts, and frontline training.

    The Tactical Response Model will include Tactical Dog Teams and Tactical Prevention Teams with advanced training to undertake warrants and other work involving moderate risk. They will be "generally unarmed" unless specific deployment requires it.

    "I want to be clear – the new Tactical Response Model is not Armed Response Teams," Williams said as the funding boost was unveiled.

    "These officers will wear standard police uniforms, drive standard police vehicles, and will not be armed in their day-to-day duties. They will support frontline investigation and prevention teams and will focus on high-risk offenders, firearms, methamphetamine, and organised crime groups."

    National began calling for the return of ARTs a few months ago after Police Commissioner Andrew Coster revealed violent criminal behaviour was ramping up, and offenders seemed to be more willing to use guns against police.

    National's police spokesperson Simeon Brown said on Twitter it was "good" the Government was paying attention to the needs of police, but it looked like the ARTs were being introduced in "disguise". "This is good news for frontline officers but simply reinforces that the ARTs should never have been abandoned."

    Police Association president Chris Cahill said the plan "falls short of the overwhelming call from our members for general arming", but he's willing to see how it goes: 'We are prepared to give this tactical response model an opportunity to deliver what our members so clearly need to police safely without the need for general arming.

    It's a big ask, but all indications are that police and the Government are serious about a viable alternative between the status quo and an armed police service.'"

    … … … …

    I found this very interesting. Kind of DOES look to me like the Armed Response Teams, except that I gather they will only carry firearms by order on a case by case basis. Which may give local commanders some wriggle room.

    While I personally hesitate to rush to support general arming of the police, having read of the alarming number of cases in recent times where officers have found themselves getting shot at and have been lucky to escape with their lives, I am wondering whether sole officers in patrol cars are too unsafe these days, and should perhaps be wearing their glocks on their hips while on duty.

    But then an obvious downside could be that, alone, they may be too much at risk of having their firearm grabbed & used against them. There's no external safety catch on glock pistols. You just pull 'em & fire then, from what I've seen on YouTube gun-lovers' videos.

    • Gezza 1.1


      *You just pull 'em & fire them

      (Dunno why the TS edit feature isn't coming up on my iPad any more after I post?)

    • Drowsy M. Kram 1.2



      Some police officers may feel safer and behave differently – if arming NZ police becomes the norm then there will likely be a change in some criminal behaviour too.

      Imho routine arming of NZ police would be a backward step – really sad if it’s necessary. #KiwiWayOfLife

      No mention of firearms in this 2019 NZ police recruitment video.


      And just for information (NZ and Norway are adjacent in the list).


      • Sacha 1.2.1

        if arming NZ police becomes the norm then there will likely be a change in some criminal behaviour too

        Problem seems to be that our crims are routinely armed now, especially with the charming imports from Aus in recent years.

        • Drowsy M. Kram

          Yes, the number of firearms in the possession of criminals is a problem, as is how they choose to use them.

          My (uninformed/naive) concern is that some criminals may choose to use their guns more frequently if they know that police officers are routinely armed. I do hope that any 'arms race' (between police officers and criminals) will make the NZ police, and Kiwis in general, safer (or at least no less safe), but I have doubts.

        • KJT

          The targets however appear to be other gang members, not police, or the general public, That may well change if they are confronted by armed police.

          An "arms race" is definitely possible. It has happened elsewhere.

    • KJT 1.3

      The issue with armed police, as we have seen overseas is it becomes the " police protecting themselves from the public," instead of " the police protecting the public".

      We have enough of that attitude from too many already.

      • Gezza 1.3.1

        Mainly from some of the younger police officers, I suspect.

        Sadly, the days of minimum height restrictions & a calm, friendly, helpful manner being some of the principal police recruitment requirements are long gone.

        As are the days of at least SOME police officers walking city & town streets, on the beat, when the public/community & the officers got to know & to generally trust each other.

        Police officers are now too remote from their corporate-style executive management, & vice versa, I fear.

    • McFlock 1.4

      looks to me more like specialist full-time teams to focus on the big-bads in society. A model that has had mixed results in other police forces – fine until they build an esprit de corps of being "elite" and going for the "big busts" with "high threat levels".

      Then they can end up taking down stupid teenagers with the aggression levels needed for arresting pablo escobar.

      • Gezza 1.4.1

        Well, I dunno what the answer is ensuring our police don’t get shot with no way to immediately defend themselves.

        I wouldn’t take on the job of a police officer these days, even if I could.

        I posted on other forum for a few years with a poster who’s got two daughters. The older one’s a GP, doing well for herself. He & their mum must have brought them up well because even tho he wasn’t keen the younger one’s a policewoman, in Auckland.

        He said she sees a lot of really shitty stuff going on, but she still wants to do the job.

        At the time we were posting about it, she’d already been stabbed with a screwdriver once – in South Auckland.

        I’m sure I’d be worrying all the time if my “dad’s girl” was a policewoman.

        • McFlock

          If she's close enough to get stabbed, a gun won't be much help.

          One of the good things NZ did was make the AOS largely supplemental to other routine police duties (used to be, anyway – dunno about these days). So they're frontline cops rather than being a sequestered unit where bad attitudes can brew.

          But if the tactical response teams end up 9-5 warrant serving, they won't get that out-of-unit exposure.

          • Gezza


            Just spotted this, in today’s news. Very pertinent. Especially the embedded video of the Police Commissioner, talking about NZ’s criminals having more firearms, where they’re getting them from, & their being much more prepared to use them days.

            Found this equally fascinating:

            “Judge Russell Collins said a cultural report on Forde’s past and his addiction to meth “painted a pretty sad picture”, involving a childhood beset with violence and alcoholism.

            The report, written by high-profile Mongrel Mob member Harry Tam, also said Forde had been subjected to reverse-racism as a Pākehā child raised in Flaxmere, and this had contributed to his becoming a criminal.

            The judge said he understood Forde’s reasons for having the firearms, but that could not be accepted as a mitigating argument, and the public had no tolerance for this kind of offending.”

  2. Stuart Munro 2

    First Dog on the Moon has an important message from Mother Nature.

  3. Gezza 3

    "Get back on the comet you flew here on dickheads” made me larf. laugh

  4. Ghostwhowalksnz 4

    Interesting profile in NY Times ( yes, I know) about the 'other' Bronx progressive congressman that isnt AOC

    Unlike AOC who was raised in Westchester suburbs and whos father was an architect Ritchie Torres grew up in a single parent household and worked at dead end minimum wage job.

    '“I don’t hire ideologues or zealots,” he tells me on a walk through his district. “Most of the people in the South Bronx are practical rather than ideological. Their concerns are bread and butter, health and housing, schools and jobs.”

    He goes off on an interesting tangent on one topic

    'Torres is also particularly alarmed by the phenomenon that the Russian American evolutionary anthropologist Peter Turchin calls “elite overproduction.”

    “We produce far more college graduates than there are elite positions for those graduates to occupy,” Torres observes. When those graduates find themselves deep in debt, shut out of the kinds of jobs they were promised and crushed by the cost of housing, “it is bound to have a radicalizing effect.”


  5. Gezza 6


    “The possibility of an additional MIQ facility in Rotorua has created an unlikely political alliance – with National MP Todd McClay, Māori Party MP Rawiri Waititi and Labour List MP Tamati Coffey all united in opposition.

    The unified voice from Rotorua’s three MPs comes in the wake of the joint head of managed isolation and quarantine, Megan Main, confirming Rotorua may host additional facilities.

    Rotorua mayor Steve Chadwick said it had been made “very clear” at a meeting with MIQ officials involving council, iwi, Lakes DHB and Rotorua Economic Development that “Rotorua cannot sustain any more MIQ facilities”.

    “Our community has taken on its fair share of MIQ for some time now and we have accepted this at a time when we are also trying to rebuild our economy, and despite housing challenges that have required the use of accommodation stock to fulfil a critical need.”

    “Running MIQ facilities impacts on local DHB, police and security resources, and those are resources our community misses out on and that therefore increase risk in these areas. We also need to retain capacity for visitors – which we currently still have.”

    “Minister Hipkins announced at Wednesday’s 1pm press conference a decision on the location of new MIQ facilities would be announced soon, and his office told Stuff ‘this week, or next week at the latest.'”
    … … … … … …

    Might be best to look elsewhere, Chris. Wonder if he’ll conclude the same thing?

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 6.1

      Where is the elsewhere ?

      Rotorua has the hotels. Do they just let them rot and its tourism industry accomodation will just grow again like a new forest….yeah over 20 years!

      • Pete 6.1.1

        Ah, what to do?

        Maybe the Government could buy the hotels and use them for emergency housing. If they have spare space, those who need emergency housing from other parts of the country can be shipped in. How would the Rotorua luminaries react to that?

        Maybe the suggestion can go ahead but the locals can stipulate where those housed come from. Step on down Hamish Walker.

    • Sacha 6.2

      Gezza, have you tried the Quotes button on the editor toolbar? Easy way to show what is from the article and what your own comments are.

      • Gezza 6.2.2

        Yes, Sasha, I know. I do sometimes use the Quotes Button on the toolbar.

        Problem is my little iPad2 is 2011 -with a pretty small "RAM-brain" for some websites now. I find that after posting 1 or at best 2 comments, the iPad won't let me insert any more text into a new comment.

        My workaround is to turn off Javascript in Settings. Then I can type as many comments as I like. BUT – No Javascript : No Toolbox. 😟

        I'm trying different layouts eg … … … … dotted lines

        to see if that visually helps demarcate any "quoted text" from my free text.

        • Sacha

          Sounds frustrating Gezza.

          • Gezza

            Not really as frustrating as it sounds, Sasha.

            roblogic suggested the workaround to me a week or so ago – was having the same problem with his(?) iPad – a more recent one.

            It only takes 2 or 3 seconds to open Settings, turn JS off, & refresh Safari.

            Then I just leave it like that unless I need to re-enable Javascript to play & watch a video, for example.

          • Gezza

            PS: Apologies – just noticed your monicker is correctlly spelt Sacha.

  6. Sanctuary 7

    I can detect little sympathy in the wider public for poor vaccination rates in the Maori community.

    At the end of the day, if Maori don't get vaccinated despite the resources being thrown at the vaccination effort and it is gangs largely made up of Maori that are acting as reservoirs of community covid then the political will to protect Maori communities in the medium term is going to be somewhere between none and less than none.

    This political reality seems to elude some people, who will continue to insist on blaming everyone but the mirror when covid catastrophe envelopes the Maori community.

    • Gezza 7.1

      16 Sept 2021: Stuff :

      “Vaccination rates of Māori in Taranaki are improving as health providers push for more whānau to get the Covi-19 jab.

      District Health Board statistics show that although Māori make up 15.6 percent of people eligible for Covid-19 vaccination in Taranaki, they have only received 10 percent of the shots given in the region.

      But last week 1143 Māori had shots in Taranaki, making up 21 percent of all vaccinations in the region – double the previous rate.

      It will take a sustained effort to catch up with non-Māori: despite last week’s doubling, the Māori share of all shots so far in Taranaki only gained slightly, from 9.7 percent to 10 percent by the end of the week.”
      …. …. ….

      Ae, it’s a bit of a mystery why Māori vax rates are still so low. There seem to have been lots of prominent Māori publicly encouraging whanau to get vaccinated. The Māori King arrived rather late to the party but has just recently put something out urging all Māori to get their jabs. Might have been waiting to get his first?

      My tuakana (elder same-sex sibling) texted me on 21 August:

      “Got mine over a month ago.
      Out of the blue call from Māori Tui Ora!
      Was due last week for second but heard on news … ring and delay so 7 weeks from first”

      And we’re not even Māori ! 😳

    • garibaldi 7.2

      Well said Sanctuary. That catastrophe could be our undoing in that we settlers may well reap what we have sown ( because of our abysmal treatment of the indigenous people, for those who can't join the dots.).

    • gsays 7.3

      Perhaps listen to the likes of Hone Harawira to get a view from a different lens.

  7. Gezza 8

    This is Granville, in my stream. A 3 foot long Australasian Shortfin eel. He's a beautiful colour – yellow & green. And a very personable tuna.

    View post on imgur.com

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 8.1

      Yes. They certainly can see you and rise up to be near the surface…you must be feeding him/her

      • Gezza 8.1.1

        Yes. I feed a four foot long NZ Native Longfin called Elvira too. I feed them off a 3′ long pointed stick. Meat or dog roll chunks.

        Best for them not to arrive together.

        Eli attacks Granville. It’s own damn fault. Silly young sod Granville arrived one day at the Eel Spot, where I feed them, behind Elvira, & decided to bite the end of her tail.

        He was lucky to survive what happened next. Elvira’s a very BIG girl !

        • Ghostwhowalksnz

          I think in some southern lakes they have a giant variant- the NZ longfin

          • Gezza

            Yes, so do we up in the North Island.

            Elvira (below) is a four foot long NZ Native Longfin.

            Ella is an even bigger NZ Native Longfin. Longer by about two more inches. I had them arrive for a feed side by side once. I had to work out how to tell them apart. Elvira has a black "beauty spot" on the port side of her dorsal fin, two inches back from where it starts.

            "My" stream is pretty big. It would likely be called a river in some countries.

            Sometimes it's full of eels – both types.

            NZ Native Longfins are protected in all of Wellington's waterways.

        • joe90

          Best you don't tell Elvira about eel-rents.


    • Jenny how to get there 8.2

      There's a creepy man's face peering out of the mud at 7 seconds. And again at the end.

  8. Gezza 9


    That’s what I was thinking yesterday, after it happened.

    “Geoscience Australia put the 9.15am quake’s magnitude – a measure of the energy released – at about 5.9. The quake’s epicentre was just south of Mansfield and about 10 kilometres below the Earth’s surface”

    That’s pretty big. From all the fallen bricks I saw in some street on One News at 6, they’re lucky no one seems to have been injured.

    • Sacha 9.1

      I did not realise it was their biggest quake in Melbourne since colonisation until an Australian tv reporter said it on the tvnz breakfast show.

    • alwyn 9.2

      The fallen bricks were, at least as I heard it, in Chapel St, Prahran. It is normally very busy but because of the pandemic the shops were closed. No open shops equals no people. Don't let anyone tell you that there is no good coming from Covid 19.

      • Gezza 9.2.1

        The proverbial saying 'every cloud has a silver lining' is used to convey the notion that, no matter how bad a situation might seem, there is always has some good aspect to it.

        Tru dat. yes

        • Gezza

          Gawd. Didn’t expect I’d need to a grammar check on that website! 😰
          What is the world coming to these days ! I blame the education dept.

      • Ghostwhowalksnz 9.2.2

        Yes. ONE building has the part of the parapet collapse and into a side street off a well known shopping strip.

        Considering the vast swaths of the city in Victorian era unreinforced brick buildings- which they still build with today- Im very surprised.

  9. Adrian 10

    Good job, it’s time we were able to put some pressure on them instead of vice versa.

  10. Anker 11

    of note a submission from NZ’s older “states women” including Phillips Bunkle and Sandra Coney. While supporting rights for transgender people, they are against gender self ID and are calling for a royal commission of enquiry into the issues around gender ideology. Their submission starts around 4 50

    I am sure people wonder why I continue to post about these issues on the Standard. I do because there is almost a complete media black out on this Bill and almost without exception the only coverage fails to report about gender ideology in any sort of balanced way.

    I was also struck by the unprofessional manner of many of the MPs on the committee.

    the labour MP for Nelson, Rachel Boyack sat with her eyes closed through out one presentation that she was clearly opposed to. It was very obvious where the committee biases lay, smiling and affirming submissions they supported. Is this usual in select committees? It shouldn’t be. It should be for MPs to neutrally listen and ask relevant questions.

    Beth from SUFW gave a great presentation and the micro aggression against her was palpable. Rather than ask questions about the points she raised, Deborah Russell attempted to undermine SUFW, by asking how many people supported them, DR then spoke about NCW and how they have more supporters. I didn’t realise a select committees job was to undermine people who took the time and had the guts to make a presentation. DR attempts back fired as SUFW were able to say200+ active members and over 5000 followers and while NCW have many thousands, very few people follow them on social media. No other submitters asked how many they represent.

    [edited link to make it direct and permanent – weka]

    • Nordy 11.1

      The Select Committee's role isn't to uncritically accept what they hear and see from submitters. If submitters choose to submit they need to understand and accept that they will be engaged with and challenged by MPs as that is the nature of political debate.

      • Sacha 11.1.1

        And the number of Facebook followers a submitter has is no substitute for a well-reasoned position.

      • Isabella Jane 11.1.2

        I've always understood the job of the members of a Select Committee is to ask questions that enhance their understanding of the presenter's submission – points of clarification or follow-up. These people (BDMRR SC) showed no curiosity whatsoever and a couple of them were openly hostile to presenters (SUFW and SWS). This is not what we, taxpayers, pay them for. They need to understand that. The whole idea of this SC process is to substitute for a full and proper public consultation which almost no bill gets and none deserves more than this one.

    • Pingao 11.2

      Thank you for continuing to post about these issues Anker and Weka and others. I don't comment but I always read the posts and all the comments and share your concerns.

    • weka 11.3

      thanks so much for the headsup about the FOWL submission. Susan Middleton was outstanding. Ten fucking minutes vs Royal Commission of Inquiry.

      I will try and put up a post on Saturday about this, probably a Women's Space post because I see the most important political issue at the moment is for women to have space to talk and organise.

      • RedLogix 11.3.1

        Best wishes with this.

        • Gezza

          @ weka


          • Anker

            That's fantastic Weka. Just a thought…..I wonder what you think about making this a open post? I.e. open for everyone to comment? I think if you did then men on this site might be more likely to read it.

            Just re-read you post about women needing to talk and organise, so disregard what I said about an open post

            1. Its is very significant when NZ Elder Statewomen call for a Royal Commission of Enquiry. Of course nothing in the media about this.

            Sandra Coney and Philida Bunkle………For those of you not old enough to know these names google An unfortunate experiment at Greenlane Hospital.

            ps Weka was not sure what was meant by your moderator’s comment? Just wanting to check, Cheers,

            • weka

              the link you put up went to the committee’s main FB page, not the page with the video on it. I changed the link so it went directly and people will still be able to find it in a week or a year.

      • Jan Rivers 11.3.2

        Thanks very much. The conversion practices prohibition bill is underway too. Again there are some serious problems. Migt you be interested in an open letter that I have written to Dr Ayesha Verrall as a post for discussion. It's here. https://www.publicgood.org.nz/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Letter-to-Dr-Ayesha-Verrall.pdf

    • Jan Rivers 11.4

      They were exceedingly unprofessional. I get to speak next week and had been thinking of referencing the toxic atmosphere. I did not expect cheap 'gotcha' questions and even accusations of transphobia from Dr Kerekere. Why should anyone offer themselves to provide evidence with their obvious body language. I hope very much the chickens come home to roost on this topic and expose their shameful behaviour. I wrote this in the hope that they do. https://www.publicgood.org.nz/2021/09/23/jan-tinettis-millstone/

      • Anker 11.4.1
        • Great article Jan. Rachel Boyack unbelievable. It was a select committee to discuss a piece of legislation and RB raised the issue of constituents complaining about something SUFW alleging said in a talk they gave 3 months ago. If it bothered RB so much why didn’t she contacts SUFW to clarify. The complaints made weren’t even correct. SUFW doesn’t talk about women’s refuge in NZ………
        • it was completely out of line.
      • weka 11.4.2

        I thought about the impact on democracy generally, and women's politics more specifically. I don't know what such committees are usually like, but this was a terrible example of consulation.

  11. Anker 12

    Thanks Nordy. I hadn't watched a select committee before, so I didn't know how it worked.

    Beth from SUFW was up to the challange, although surely. the challange should be about the ideas submitted for the proposed legislation? No matter, Beth handled the challenge really well.

    I agree Sacha about the number of FB followers is no substitute for a well reasoned position, which I think SUFW had. It was Deborah Russell who brought up SUFW membership numbers, although no other group was asked about this. It back fired on DR.

    I would recomend anyone watch SUFW, Save NZ sport of Fowls presentations. All well reasoned.

    • francesca 12.1

      I object to the legitimisation of a changed definition of the word woman , without much wider social debate.The invitation to make submissions is not good enough for such a radical shift..In effect, self sexID is about feelings rather than evidence.What does it mean to "feel" like a woman?Even I don't know and I've had 4 kids, suffered male violence, had painful periods, been discriminated and overlooked because of my sexThe bill amendment does not define what it means by sex or gender.That is far too sloppy

      • Brigid 12.1.1

        "What does it mean to "feel" like a woman?" I'm damned if I know either. There's nothing that I do or think or feel that's based on my gender. I just am. There's nothing that I do from one day to the next that is effected by my gender, other than the obvious physical attributes.

        How does a transgender person 'know' what it feels like to be a woman when we can't identify it.

        Just found this. It's excellent


        “Woman” is not a feeling. “Woman” just is.

        • francesca

          Thanks Brigid

          That was great!

          So true about the responses to a developing female body.The queasiness of being shoved into a corner by a family friend's male gut when no one was around

          "Jeez, you're finally filling out"

          And the shame of that, not being able to tell someone and be believed

      • Anker 12.1.2

        Agree Francesca. They are legalising the changing definition of women and they are doing it by stealth and their is deafening silence by the media.

        Having said that I heard SUFW interviewed on Magic Talk today. She was clear, articulate and you could hear the hosts disbelief as he asked questions to clarrify.

        The vast majority don't know about these changes and there will be hell to pay for the Green and Labour MPs over this. My prediction.

    • Maurice 12.2

      Select Committees are great places to see the type of people we have as MPs and to see just how badly some of them react to having to sit there wasting their time listening to the Hoi Polloi ….. as some of them so obviously believe.

  12. Sacha 13

    Govt appoints the initial boards of peak new sector organisations Health NZ and the Māori Health Authority – some solid people named. https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/expert-group-appointed-lead-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-future-health-system

    • Gezza 13.1

      I have some concerns about the proposed Health changes – but that looks to be a selection of some excellently qualified key people on the boards.

      The main thing will be to keep the boards focussed & not let changes get bogged down by unnecessarily bureaucratic middle management. Bureaucracies always grow becos:

      Parkinson’s Fourth Law: “The number of people in any working group tends to increase irrespective of the amount of work to be completed.”
      Parkinson’s Fifth Law: “If there is a way to delay an important decision, the good bureaucracy (or non-elected government officials), public or private, will find it.”

      • tc 13.1.1

        Some excellently qualified people and Amy Adams

        • Gezza

          “Political views
          Amy Adams describes herself as “socially liberal, economically conservative.” She considers herself a feminist and supported the Abortion Legislation Act 2020. She has defended abortion on the grounds of women’s reproductive rights and urged religious opponents of abortion reform to stop teaching that contraception is a sin.

          Adams has also voted in favour of legalising same-sex marriage and legalising assisted dying for people with terminal illnesses.

          As Minister of Justice, she wiped the convictions of men convicted of homosexual acts prior to the decriminalisation of homosexuality in 1986, and apologised on behalf of the Government.” – Wikipedia

          I don’t have a problem with Adams. She held a telecomms portfolio at one point. Two Labour Ministers have put her on the board. They presumably must believe she brings some useful skills & talents to the table?

  13. Sacha 14

    Fresh Covid modelling by Shaun Hendy shows big impact of vaccination levels. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414146/covid19-nz-modelling-suggests-7000-deaths-in-a-year-even-with-75-per-cent-of-country-jabbed

    The modelling from Te Punaha Matatini suggests that if 80 per cent of the 5+ population was fully vaccinated – around 75 per cent of the entire country – Covid-19 would still cause a serious death toll without other restrictions.

    Hendy projects it would cause 60,000 hospitalisations and 7000 deaths over a one-year period.

    If 90 per cent of the 5+ population was reached however – around 85 per cent of the full population – then deaths would drop to around 50 over a year.


    • 80% eligible people vaccinated = 7000 deaths per year
    • 90% = 50 deaths per year
    • Gezza 14.1

      That’s a MASSIVE difference !

      Wonder how reliable the modelling is tho.

    • Incognito 14.2

      For comparison, 27 deaths over 18+ months when vaccination rates were zero to begin with and the Delta variant did not exist from the outset. Not based on modelling, but on cold hard facts.

      • Poission 14.2.1

        The facts are based on natural selection,hence the difficulty with the laws of chance.

      • Sacha 14.2.2

        I think those new numbers are without lockdowns. More detail that I have not read yet: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/modelling-thousands-of-deaths-without-high-vaccination-rates

        • Sacha

          If vaccines remain effective against the virus or are reinforced with booster shots, if more than 90 percent of the population over the age of 5 is vaccinated and if moderate public health measures (like mandatory masking and improved ventilation) are put in place alongside a comprehensive testing, tracing and case isolation system, then the impact of the virus could be similar to an average flu year.

          Masking and other widespread but less intrusive public health measures will help depress the R number and vaccines will still make a significant difference, reducing transmission by around 85 percent. But active testing for new cases, contact tracing of positive results, isolation of contacts and quarantine of Covid-19 cases will still be needed, the research has found.

          • Incognito

            Yup, no silver bullets unless new generation vaccines come around soon that provide lasting sterilising immunity against existing and future Covid-19 variants and possibly still dependent on a global elimination drive. We’re watching & creating the dawning of a New Brave World (not to mention CC).

        • Sacha

          Core numbers

    • Macro 14.3

      Hendry's modelling of Covid in NZ has been pretty impressive. On the 24th August at the beginning the current outbreak his modelling forecast the outbreak could top 1000 cases.

      Te Pūnaha Matatini modeller Professor Shaun Hendy said the cluster was clearly reaching towards the upper limit of expectations when it was detected in Auckland nearly a week ago.

      Then they predicted 50 to 120 cases to have been circulating prior to the lockdown.

      Now Hendy said a "best-case scenario" could see about 200 cases – greater than the outbreak in August last year – while it was possible the cluster could swell to 1000.

      "It's very early to be making estimates because we don't yet know how effective alert level 4 is, but it is possible we could see 1000 cases before we close out this cluster.

      "This does mean we will likely see level 4 held in place for several weeks more in the Auckland region.

    • Gabby 14.4

      So around 12% of hospitalisations result in death? Seems high.

      • McFlock 14.4.1

        Not that high really.

        I stopped searching at last year's US data because we still have loads of old people alive.

        If someone needs to go to hospital because of an infectious respiratory disease, they're in deep trouble and going downhill. If they were getting better by themselves, they wouldn't need admitting. Hospitals can usually help, but if there are other factors like age or the patient has other conditions then the odds get worse.

        It very much depends on the reason one goes to hospital, these days. Heart attacks? Bloody miracle workers compared to 20 years ago. Most cancers have amazeballs survival stats, too. But your liver or some acute respiratory thing? Still a tall order for a lot of people.

  14. Incognito 15

    Ultimately, they want people to get vaccinated because they've chosen [my italics] to protect themselves and their community. That will be the main motivation used by the Government.

    Transcript by Brittney Deguara of Live update on 23 Sep. 21


  15. Enough is Enough 16

    That's a pretty impressive AB 23 picked for the 100th test with the Boks.

    Bring it on boys and give them a hiding.

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