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6:00 am, November 23rd, 2022 - 91 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Who was it that said Andrew Little has the 'Midas touch' but in reverse. I guess mental health isn't that important after all. They should have given funding to Mike King instead to actually get something done.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/new-zealand-has-same-number-of-acute-mental-health-beds-as-when-labour-came-to-power.html
5 years may be just enough time to have a small number more specialists completing training in mental health than had been arranged by the previous government, but other health workers are in short supply – we do keep forgetting that Covid is still with us. It is regrettable that even a small turn of a big ship takes time. Meantime I am aware that we have recruited some specialists from overseas, – that may have offset normal retirements and some going overseas, but forward planning with longer than a single term focus was not a feature of the previous government – and to be fair Covid has increased the need for mental services by as much as just recognising the issue . .. .
All Mr. King has to do is the apply through the required process like anybody else who wants Government money.
But Jimmy wants "something" done. There was a handy little dictionary first published in 1965 called Let Stalk Strine. The entry for the word Aorta is informative:
Aorta – Aorta is the vessel through which courses the life-blood of Strine public opinion. Aorta is a composite but non-existent Authority which is held responsible for practically everything unpleasant in the Strine way of life… The following are typical examples of such appeals. They reveal the innate reasonableness …which all Strines possess to such a marked degree: Aorta have more buses. And aorta mikem smaller so they don't take up half the road. An aorta have more room innem – you carn tardly move innem air so crairded.
Brilliant. I wonder whether this authority exists elsewhere in the Southern hemisphere other than Aus/NZ?
Noting the semi medical etymology of aorta I wonder if it has any genetic link to the Moaning Minnie virus that I have long believed came attached to the Covid 19 virus in 2020.
The aorta and shoulda etc seem to be subsets of subsets of moaning being specific kinds of moaning with the complete link being……
MM virus – political moaning – aorta/shoulda.
Hopefully someone is doing a linguistics/sociology thesis on this……'The rise, and hopefully fall, of moaning as means of communication' as a title is snappy enough and broad enough. (actually only a little tongue in cheek……moan, moan seems everywhere)
and
PS I don't class as moaning a person seeing something and commenting with ideas on why it might have happened and with suggestions for improvement. .
A cousin of Laura Norder and Lauren Forcement…
"Jimmy wants something done". Yes AB Jimmy does and so do 24,000 and counting people who have signed a petition that student nurses should get paid while on placement.
For anyone seriously concerned about the state of the health work force and the plight of student nurses (I have posted previously) please head to change.org and type in student nurses to be paid petition. I would post the link here, but I am not sure if that is allowed.
As I posted yesterday the NZNO have been calling for this for sometime and are appreciative that Andrew Little is considering it.
Quote from a link from yesterday from the NZNO. "We are in the middle of a horrific nursing shortage crisis andit seems like a no-brainer that we must do everything possible to attract students into nursing"
"NZNO has been suggesting paid placements for sometime now and we are frnkly surprized that it has taken so long to even be considered"
I will try my best to repost the link onto this comment, but no guarantees.
https://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/article/undoctored/nzno-applauds-paid-placements-says-more-must-urgently-be-done
Sure Jimmy. There's a lot that needs fixing – no denying it. But why are you so convinced that Mike King is a solution to a part of it? And do you have a theory as to why our mental health is so shite? It would be good to have some plausible conception as to why, rather than spending truckloads doing an imperfect job of patching up after the event.
Can Mike King apply for funding to staff an in patient unit? I could be wrong about that, but I think funding isn't available for that.
Mike King is not far out of an institution himself.
What's wrong with Mike King?
(Also why am I being moderated out? I'm not saying anything offensive..?)
If this is your first comment, all first comments get held back for manual approval to stop spammers and trolls.
If it’s not your first comment, make sure there are no typos in name or email, must be an exact match to previous comments.
Ah OK – fair enough.
Thanks for the explanation
Did you not watch Celebrity Treasure Island, and subsequent interviews?
No – I am not interested in reality TV (or TV at all) but I respect all the work he's done towards the issue of suicide.
So what if he was on a shitty TV show – he does amazing work
SomeNewGuy. 100% re Mike King and the reality tv show. Who cares!
Mike King has worked tirelessly for mental health and gave his award (?QSM) back in disgust when he saw that not much was changing
Mike King aside, mental health services are a shocker.
But during his comedy career King was a vitriolic prick on stage and a narcissist with an ego the size of Africa offstage and the meltdown he had on TV3's AM over missing out on funding for his vanity project showed everybody just who he is.
He was ill-mannered, inarticulate, angry, and spent most of the interview hurling insults at people, he called Ashley Bloomfield a nasty little man who is killing our kids, and he looked like he was pissed.
Mental health is something I take seriously and have personally been bounced around many different services. I have seen friends commit suicide in situations that could have been managed better. It is an awful system and Mike King is at least doing something about it.
I don't know many stand up comics that aren't narcissistic to be honest and who cares. He is trying to make a difference in a very very sensitive and complicated system. And you call it a vanity project?
Family member's experience in mental health was that many of the nurses avoided doing their jobs and left it to the lower paid staff to do what the nurses should have been doing.
Was people like my family member that were the ones getting hit and abused and at the same time doing most of the rehabilitation, suicide checks and support.
What was the point of your comment Muttonbird? Mike King has been very open about have a mental illness. Its whats driven him to try and get help for others through his Gumboat foundation?
Mike King's done more for suicide prevention than Andrew Little that's for sure.
All Mike King has done is to feed on the angst of the worried well, he wouldn't recognize a serious mental illness until it hit him in the face. As happens.
psych nurse if your title is your occupation then you would see very seriously ill people indeed. People with schizophrenia and bi polar disorder and also with psychotic depression.
The worried well is quite an old fashion term and use to be used to diminish other peoples suffering. Major Depressive disorder, anxiety disorders, OCD are pretty darn painful and distressing as too are eating disorders. All have higher rates of suicide than those without a mental illness.
But if you work in mental health with people who at times need hospitalization, I salute you for your work
In that five years that Labour have been in power we have had,
All of those are major stressors, happening on top of an already stressed mental health system.
Want to look at something really bad? See what happened in Chch after the quakes.
What we really need is to prevent mental health deterioration. Then we won't need so many extra beds.
Totally agree with you there Weka.
I think it all starts with building reslience into our children.
Always build resilience in kids. At this point we need to build resilience in adults as well, otherwise there won't be enough competent people to build resilience in children.
Latest Caspian Report that looks at the links between Russian geography and culture:
finally. lol
Thanks Red,
I really enjoy the Caspian report, so I will have a look later.
Listening and reading again the wisdom of Mr Luxon, I have come to a suspicion.
By refusing to state much of any policy, he is whetting our appetite. Mid next year policies will appear and we sceptics will fall back in shame as Luxon sweeps the field with fluent well founded policies.
Actually listening to his delivery this morning on Morning Report he has become a much more fluent assured speaker and if I was a National supporter, I would be saying, "Yeah!"
There's no shortage of policy:
Ankle bracelets, boot camps, tax cuts rubber-stamped.
Now, fines for principals and parents!
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/truancy-christopher-luxon-not-ruling-out-penalising-bad-parents-and-principals-in-truancy-policy-to-address-nz-s-abysmal-attendance-rates.html
I suppose if you were a National support, you would be saying, "Yeah!"
Yeah!
Ah the need to punish so apt ,so 'appropriate' and soo right wing.
"The beatings will continue until morale improves" – RW proverb
We should follow what Singapore do. They have a lower crime rate.
Your criticism of the government has been noted. As we are now following Singapore, prepare to be punished for your crime. Or stop breaking the law … by criticising the government.
Massive state-run apartment block building program?
What do Singapore do Jimmy?
Show us those fleshy buttocks, boy …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_in_Singapore
Barbaric
Your problem (and more importantly, Luxon's problem) is that people who are sympathetic to the idea of "boot camps" also totally disagree with him on "wraparound" services. Luxon says they are "kumbaya, mush", everyone else says they are essential.
Why the difference? Cost. Which proves that it's not a policy, only a headline. A serious policy requires long-term follow-up, therefore long-term investment, and invest means spend taxpayers' money. Luxon won't go there, because in reality, he doesn't care.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/130555478/boot-camps-one-of-the-best-things-that-ever-happened
'Your problem (and more importantly, Luxon's problem) is that people who are sympathetic to the idea of "boot camps" also totally disagree with him on "wraparound" services. Luxon says they are "kumbaya, mush", everyone else says they are essential.'
Wee Jimmy should have been at the same meeting as I was yesterday where the guest speakers were from a local organisation which provides wraparound services for people, young and not so young. The work they do is nothing short of amazing and I became more frustrated and angry as Chris Luxon's ill tempered comments describing them as kumbaya, mush kept getting in my head. I was tempted to ask them what they thought of what he said, but kept my counsel, but it was bloody hard. All power to Starfish Services, Matamata, they really are doing the mahi, particularly with our young people who are disenfranchised from their whanau, schools and life in general. https://starfishservices.org.nz/
They aren't policies, they are soundbites for simpletons and suckers (take a bow jimmy) who are too lazy to think.
None of them say why they will change the causes of the ill that they are purporting to cure. None of them even say how they will prevent repetition of the offense in the future.
Most of them are simply put out to put Luxon in the current news cycle.
Just wait until Jacinda chews him up and spits him out in the election debates!
He pretty much gets a free run in interviews!
Listen to him preform in QT in the House!
Luxon is critical of parents and principals – well where was he over Uffindell's bullying? Did he go on all media outlets saying what bad parents Uffindell must have had, and how bad was the principal of the private school Uffindell attended? No, it was softly, softly and welcome back Sam, all is forgiven, the QC will sort it out with legal terminology.
While not defending kids breaking the law in various ways, to my mind Uffindell's bullying was shocking. He came from a privileged family, lacking in nothing, was quickly moved on to another private school and an advantaged life from then on. But now Luxon wants ankle bracelets and boot camps for kids from bottom feeder families getting into trouble and should be treated differently to the likes of the well off who will vote National or become one of National's less than upstanding MPs.
I have formed an impression that Luxon only has time for those who "deserve" generous tax cuts, those who can hire a Mercedes for a very short walk, who own multiple properties, holiday in Hawaii. Has he directed his criticism for well off parents who let their children truant by taking them for mid term holidays?
In a word – he's a rich prick with no understanding of or empathy for the bottom-feeders!
And he could be the next PM! God help us!
um, he can from modest beginnings and has done ok in life, I am sure he has empathy for a wide range of people.
I wonder what you consider modest Alan? Both parents on above average incomes affording expensive Private Schools.? That is not "modest"
Howick College and Christchurch Boys High School are not private schools
True, only Saint Kentigern College is a private school – tough times
1 year at Saint Kent's, 1 year at Howick College, 3 years at CBHS, 80% is a pass mark, right???
Only 5 years at school? That's explains a lot
Very low decile schools, the poor children.
That he came from modest beginnings and has been able to distance himself from those beginnings is all the more reason we should be critical of him for, once again, his lack of understanding of or empathy for the bottom feeders (his words).
Alan, Luxon's "empathy" appears well hidden then. He seems a very cold person to me. The day he self-anointed himself as leader by hiring a Mercedes for a very short journey to Parliament, said a lot about his self-importance and wanting to make a grand entrance, and little understanding of those who walk or bus everyday of their lives.
RBNZ calls Jumbo size in hike to constrain both general and fiscal inflation.
Large hole now in Billie Bunters debt driven budget.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-decisions
Buckle in folks. We are coming in for a hard landing in 2023. Its going to be ugly.
Monetary policy statement says OCR will rise to 5.5% in 2023,and remain there for at least a year. (US fed statement was for 5.25% next year and also no pivot)
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/publications/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-november-2022
Well I'm surprised and my guess was low by 0.25%.
Were just copying the Fed now aren't we?
Seems that the beatings will continue until morale improves.
They (RBNZ) also have to manage the Current account deficit,forced mostly by the trade deficit.
The RBNZ was ahead of the fed in policy rate increases,The RBNZ is behind on QT,with little movement in the RBNZ balance sheet. ( Fed around 400b so far,and a reduction in M2.
.
Kainga Ora yet to evict single tenant | RNZ
["unruly" is such a piss-weak weasel word for hours of violent intimidation, vandalism & tresspass throughout the early hours & the inflicting of severe sleep deprivation & stress day after day, night after night, year after year … incidentally, spare me the sanctimonious shit about "wraparound services" … 5 years of "wraparound services" haven't altered the behaviour of the piece of shit nextdoor to my 91 / 92 yo parents one fucking iota … great way, though, for a callous, narcissistic, self-interested professional middle-class to play the role of the morally virtuous while allowing the nightmare situations that they've set up for people like my elderly parents to continue indefinitely … Woke Dogmatists & their fellow-travellers are such spineless little creeps … and like many cowards there’s more than a touch of sadism bubbling away beneath that virtue-signaling veneer]
The "beatings" that you seem to anticipate will probably have to continue until the RBNZ manages to reduce the mad stimulus that Robertson is imposing.
Actually, whats going to happen is that the NZ economy will eventually dip and enter recession. That doesn't dictate the path of inflation, which will more or less follow the international trajectory of inflation anyway. At that point the Robertson (or another finance minister, you can pick anyone) will 'add' further stimulus (I quoted add because they don't do anything, its completely automatic).
If we end up with recession coupled with inflation at this time (and its still Robertson) you'll be bitching about the finance minister causing the inflation. If its Nationals finance minister (Mr Seymour) you'll announce the finance minister had no discretion. That's about all we can say with certainty.
"which will more or less follow the international trajectory of inflation".
Why can't we be a little bit more imaginative and instead of following the path of the other lemmings we could follow the path of a country that has some similarity to us in size and openness of the economy.
Let's be like Switzerland where the inflation rate is about 2.9% at the moment.
https://www.nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-and-media/opinion/inflation-lessons-from-switzerland/
Switzerland has a current account surplus,which lowers rates for borrowing.
NZ has a double deficit with the current account and budget both in record deficit country,this which is persistent over time means we are always a price taker with interest rates,and exporting $$$ for debt remains one of our largest industries.
If your serious about current account deficits, well you go hard or go home.
NZ implemented a policy during 2020 which actually worked with all the border and import restrictions. Want to actually deal with the current account?Then, block, tariff or restrict imports.
The rest is just lobbying against public policy and doesn't work reliably in practice on the current account anyway.
The NZ current account has not been this bad since labour was last in charge,so there is form.
https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2022-09/currac1.png
The covid policy was also used by other countries such as Taiwan,which does not have either a current account deficit,or high inflation.Using the excess funding that remained for 3 water policy and pork bone policy with infrastructure during a time of high building costs,supply shortages,and high inflation is fiscal irresponsibility.
There are two notes with NZ on debt watch,with alarms ringing Pullup Pullup,and half the government raking up air miles on overseas junkets.With QT in the US,UK,and Eurozone (starting december) there will be a penalty premium on NZ debt.
Its very odd. Your chart also shows a very low current account during this govt's term as recently as 2020. You claim to find this important but your not advocating for any of the policies at that time which actually worked.
You also seem in favour of making the interest rates on NZ investments, especially the ones at the risk free rate, pay higher returns. But you also seem to be expecting this to result in everybody here placing their bets (savings) overseas, and everybody overseas not going for better paying low risk returns.
The policy's for covid (which were actually from the pandemic plan) were in 2020,2021,and were in place to enable vaccination rollouts. Since then with opening up,removal of most constraints,and removal of most funding the death toll increased .
The budget and funding moved on from there to increase spending under a regime of high inflation,little or nothing to show for it,that would increase either productivity,efficiency or enable debt decreases.
The blowout 3 months into the new budget is an increase in debt of 9 billion dollars in total government borrowings over projection.
The current account reduction was 20/21 was due to trade surpluses although debt increased to sustain deficit.
"The current account reduction was 20/21 was due to trade surpluses"
Welcome to the same page, please see 7.1.1.1.1.1, under want to actually deal with the current account. The rest is just a moan fest and will not actually change anything of NZs trade patterns anyway.
The debt blowout on the current account is now real,and payable as is the government borrowings of 219 billion (absolutes).20/21 ca was still on the credit card.
This is a re-run of the Covid debate, where people look around the globe, ignore 200 countries and cherry-pick one or two.
We were then told "be like Sweden/Australia/Singapore/Taiwan". Even China at one point (not surprisingly, that one has disappeared). The country we "should be" changed from week to week, of course.
Different topic, same misleading arguments. So now with inflation and the economy, we don't hear "be like UK/USA/EU" or the vast majority of comparable Western democracies. Why not? Because they are worse off, therefore ignored.
Simply plucking data on one issue (and overlooking all others) is a phoney rhetorical device, not good faith debate at all.
Switzerland? Sure. How about their property laws? That'll shake things up.
Its about living with you means,over the covid period we also had high returns on exports ( dairy and meat)which provided funding for health pharma,without blowing out debt so much.
We are borrowing now to sustain government policy ( in a period of low unemployment ) and increasing spending on the credit card in a period of high inflation,increasing interest rates,and fewer willing overseas lenders.
"country we "should be" changed from week to week".
As someone who suggested that we follow Switzerland I think I am allowed to comment on this topic.
From the very beginning of the Covid outbreak I suggested that we should follow the example of Taiwan. I never switched from week to week. The reason for Taiwan was they had a senior politician who was an expert in infectious diseases and he pre-prepared a plan and they followed it. We had a Government who just slung a line of bs about how good we were but actually did almost nothing. Why are they resisting an enquiry into what happened if we were so "good"? Because we weren't.
I am now advocating that we follow a similar path to Switzerland in economic policy. Why? Because they tend to do things the right way without all the waste and stupidity we are currently exhibiting. Are they always admirable? Of course not, with the particularly spectacular example of their behaviour with Germany around WW2. It doesn't mean that we can't behave like them when they get things right though.
The debt levels are not the issue per se, and the current account deficit is a signal of our underlying problem….we are too reliant (exposed) to offshore impacts…if our economy were more self reliant we could have greater (though not complete) control of prices…we dont and so we dont.
Sadly the argument that the RBNZ is posturing for its own benefit looks to be the case….as it ever was.
The debt levels are a result of the trilemma of policies that unfolded,
Lower interest rates,QE,and increased asset appreciation.
As the sign of each changes,there are now higher interest rates,fewer dollars chasing assets,and asset depreciation ( housing,equities,crypto) the leverage also changes.
Whilst tradeable inflation is stable (shipping rates back to pre covid)
We still have one advantage with energy as electricity and gas allow stable pricing ( outside policy increases) which few other countries have.
There are other ways to deflate asset bubbles…some of which have been implemented already….a little patience is in order, especially when as you note much of the tradable inflation is declining already.
The RBNZ are behaving exactly as expected though not as I think they should….the lagged impact of the previous hikes should have been allowed to do their work.
It is worth considering that none of this solves our labour problems.
The RBNZ is the only central bank in the G10C that gets inflation data in 3 month reporting,everyone else gets it monthly, and it still has the problem with all the dodgy bonds sitting on its balance sheet,and poor reporting from other government entities does not help.
NZ is not a G10 country…..and thats no excuse
G10C is for currency countries.where debt and currency are readily tradeable.(liquid)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G10_currencies
Ah, i see…i also seem to recall we are no longer in the top ten traded currencies….14th now I believe.
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/118200/nz-dollar-drops-four-places-worlds-14th-most-traded-currency-after-12-years-10th#:~:text=NZ%20dollar%20drops%20four%20places,12%20years%20in%2010th%20place&text=The%20New%20Zealand%20dollar%20is,for%20International%20Settlements%20(BIS).
Still counted on the platforms as G10C ,and the move here also moved rates in Australia (at the short end).
A 1% change in interest rates changes the government books by -1b as does a decrease in gdp of 1%.
The RBNZ is forecasting a decrease in unemployment for the Dec 1/4,( to 3.2%) so there may be adjustments in tax revenue.
You can be a little bit more imaginative all you want. Its called wishful thinking and its pretty wishful of you thinking NZ's inflation is specifically related to NZ's economic policy, rather than what's going on with the world economy.
Unfortunately its not well recognized that this presents an actual opportunity to free-load. NZ could have sensible public spending policies with less regard for deficits and forcing unemployment and still get the same kinds of inflation outcomes.
Let’s not – I don’t want to have to learn yodeling and carry a silly little knife in my pocket.
A Christmas wish come true for some of us, Otakaro, the Chch rebuild entity is going to become the reincarnation of the old Ministry of Works. Makes so much sense, keeping the knowledge in house and not rehiring for every new project. Brilliant, maybe they do listen.
National thinks kids should be treated like adults when it comes to punishment and taxation but not when it comes to voting.
Its bizarre.
A person working in a dairy passed away due to stab wounds received earlier this evening – it started as aggravated assault and is now 'murder' or 'manslaughter'.
We can stand by and pretend that these ram raids, stabbing sprees, assaults on shopkeepers and their workes are normal and nothing can be done by, but if we do so, we should at least have the decency to admit that these crimes are more then just crimes against buildings, or rich business owners. And that he ones that end up dying more often then not are just some casual or part time workers trying to make an extra dollar.
A few years ago the dairy in my fringe was attacked a few times, the dairy in my current fringe was attacked three times since xmas day last year. At knife point, at gun point, with bats. Luckily so far no one ever paid that price that the poor worker had to pay tonight.
When we criticiss "boot camps" from the opposition, and don't demand effective measures from the current government, we are failing to address this and the cost will continue to get higher.
It's a poor response to consistently deride calls for "law and order" when providing little of either.
Herald article posted this morning:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/the-front-page-chris-hipkins-on-gangs-ram-raids-and-new-zealand-feeling-unsafe/6V5B6XDRCRERHFOT24S2VTU5IE/
Chris Hipkins:
No matter what he says about Gangs and the patched up men and boys that work from it will not matter to the person that got stabbed to death at their workplaces yesterday.
And if the guy that stabbed this worker to death yesterday was a patched up gangmember well i guess then police will file now a charge for homicide. Obviously, that is the only thing that can be done.
It's a noticeable redirect away from the concerns being expressed.
The Herald has published an article regarding the Balenciaga brand photoshoot. The issue of inclusion of bondage gear and references to child pornography being openly pictured with young children in strangely unsettling poses has been discussed on Twitter in the last few days, and a Claytons apology issued.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/horror-detail-found-in-creepy-balenciaga-ad-featuring-children/PVFFK7EIX2L5GEG7JNKJUQNAUE/
One observation not in the article, is that a teddy's eyes have been deliberately changed to perhaps indicate physical abuse, or reflect a known phenomenon of retinal haemorrhage in abused children.
(For those like me who have little brand knowledge, it is a well-known brand.)
So, the story continues, with the replacement shoot – post apology:
https://twitter.com/itsnatlydenise/status/1595301521134354432?s=20&t=AsIrLz4AMBk_nT3QE_g61w
A fashion photographer has posted an appropriate response to the first:
https://twitter.com/misanharriman/status/1595213794246098950?s=20&t=AsIrLz4AMBk_nT3QE_g61w