Written By:
notices and features - Date published:
6:00 am, February 25th, 2024 - 70 comments
Categories: open mike -
Tags:
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
I am curious if any of y'all here think Aotearoa buying bitumen from overseas is a step forward, a good idea?
Just been looking at an article about Marsden Point and found NZ First have gotten an investigation into reopening the refinery. Resilience has been cited.
Refinery closes, badda bing badda boom, Cyclone Gabriel hits.
From a NZ First petition- "“The devastation brought on by Cyclone Gabriella is immense. New Zealand is now in desperate need of bitumen for the lengthy and expensive roading rebuild – a quality product which Marsden Point was once producing for us locally until it was shut down."
Now, I get that Peters and Jones aren't everyone's cup of tea. This is part of NZF policy that is supportable.
Neo-liberalism failure yet again, unless it is working exactly as it should…
New Zealand has been buying all bitumen from overseas since early 2021 – more money in it.
https://contractormag.co.nz/contractor/marsden-point-bitumen/
Sourcing bitumen from a wider market should allow us to get a product that is more suitable to our needs. Marsden Pt was very limited in what crude it could process, and the properties of the crud that comes out the bottom (bitumen) is governed to a large extent by the crude that goes in. It can be modified to an extent with additives, but you'd get a much better product if you started with something more suitable. Not an issue in some applications, but in some parts of NZ roading concerns struggled to build adequate roads with Marsden Pt bitumen.
Outcome will depend on whether NZTA sources on performance or price.
Closing Marsden Point was daft.
There's nothing resilient about a policy that is centred in everyone that can afford it having a car or two. Is NZF's resiliency a climate denying adaptation position? Resiliency washing.
Resiliency would look like this:
The things I have named reduce miles. Less mills travelled = less road maintenance = less bitumen used.
I'm guessing that that is against NZF policy, which would see expansion of the bitumen sector as a good thing.
You can also say that persevering with Marsden Pt was just as daft.
We would have then been locked in to using the capacity of the refinery for the rest of it's life, and with completely wrong market signals once consumption dropped below refinery capacity, and the owners had to dump excess fuel into the market at reduced prices.
Without having to keep the Marsden Pt refinery operating we can source fuel to match a reducing demand.
I suspect your position is predicated on the idea that we will always have access to overseas supplies. What if there is a GCF or war or other event that means we don't?
Your argument is primarily economic right?
We relied on access to imported crude.
that doesn't answer my question though. What could we do in these two scenarios?
Our crudes are unsuitable for transport fuels, so we export them.
And if we could refine them into transport fuels, our proven reserves amount to little more than a years worth of consumption.
that still doesn't answer my question.
We do produce our own crude. I was out there drilling for it.
Not in enough quantity for the grades we need. We do produce enough for lube oils and maybe making composites?
Resilience, and sustainability means transitioning to renewables, so we are not dependant on oil for energy in the amounts we currently use.
Wasting money on keeping oil infrastructure going, means less for renewables.
Yes, and that requires faith in two things:
That we will transition to renewables
That transitioning to renewables without powering down will work.
There is absolutely no doubt we will transition to renewables.
Either with a planned and staged transition, or, one forced by decreasing resources and and steadily more unliveable climate. Accompanied by wars and sociatal breakdown. Given the preponderance of anto-social AGW denialist nutters, like NZ, gaining power worldwide at present, the second is more likely
Unfortunately increases in energy efficiency are negated by rising population. And with vehicles, by increases in vehicle size. The total proportion of renewables has remained stubbornly about 10% since 1990. Mostly due to inertia and lack of investment by successive Governments.
that's definitely a transition, but it's not what most people mean when they say transition to renewables. If there are resource wars, GFC, societal breakdown, where will NZ be getting all its lithium from?
I don't think anyone has answered the question of what NZ would do if we lost our import supply of crude oil and we have no refinery. That's a transition too I guess
If we lose our import supply of oil then having a refinery is irrelevant.
Whether we import oil to refine here, or import refined products, it is still subject to the same supply constraints.
BTW. Renewables are not dependant on lithium. It currently makes batteries more efficient, but you can have renewable, and even rather good batteries/ power supplies without it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_redox_flow_battery
How is it irrelevant?
Of course, but the scenario is where we can't import crude or refined, but have domestic crude and a refinery or not. I don't know why this is so hard to address.
W've addressed it.
We do not have sufficient local reserves of type or quantity for current consumption.
So we depend on imports!
Ergo. Whether it is refined here or offshore it is still imported.
Interposing an expensive and outdated refinery doesn't change the dependance on imported oil and oil companies.
We coul invest in drilling and new oil Wells which may extend our local reserves by a few more years. But still much cheaper to refine offshore rather than rebuilding the refinery. We could also invest in making buggy whips! History lesson for small business owners: Don’t be the last buggy whip maker | Succeeding in Small Business
The refinery was originally an attempt at import substitution. Keeping the expense of refining off our balance of trade. Which made sense 50 years ago. Until it was sold in the “great fire sale” in the 90’s which meant the oil companies who bought it, not NZ, benefited from the subsequent earnings.
Now. What makes sense is still import substitution. But with renewables which don't require billions per year paid to offshore oil producers.
we’re really talking at cross purposes here. Your argument is based on us not tipping into collapse, and in that sense it makes sense.
My question, which in fact still hasn’t been answered, is what happens if there is no more overseas source of crude or refined and all we have is our own crude? If you say ‘but we don’t have enough oil locally to meet demand!’, well of course, just like we won’t have enough import if the global system collapses.
The point of keeping a refinery on shore isn’t to avoid or delay transition to renewables, it’s to hold one thread of resilience. Might not be a good thread to hold, but that argument hasn’t been made yet because you, Graeme and Ad are all arguing within the context of current economics, not early collapse scenarios. Which is why I keep the repeated the question.
NZ might get really lucky and we get a L/G/TPM government in 2026, and we get serious about transition. But it will have to include degrowth and powerdown soon because there is no way to transition fully to renewables any more. That window has passed.
We will always have access to crude oil so far as I can tell.
(I have a lot of big-state leftie sympathy for your view of Marsden Point).
Even if our access to the refineries of Singapore, South Korea and Japan were shut down (say in the case of China invading Taiwan), we would still get it from Australia's refineries. It is Gull, BP and CALTEX that provide those sources already.
International access doesn't seem to be forcing fuel substitution locally. For example despite massive growth in electricity production here over the last decade, Huntly's owner Genesis was quite happy to switch to brown Indonesian coal while our super-high-grade coking coal went to the Chinese and Thai steel mills.
That's the BAU argument. Meanwhile, climate scientists and communicators, journalists, and transitioners are all pointing to collapse of civilisation if we don't drop GHGs fast. There's some chance that we will change voluntarily, but it's looking more likely that we will be forced into hard change. So yes, losing access to global supplies of crude oil is a scenario we should be considering, at least in our thinking.
Monbiot: https://www.monbiot.com/2023/11/03/the-flickering/
With that crude we were able to make diesel, jet fuel, petrol and fuel oil for ships.
Also much needed bitumen for repairs.
No matter which way you look at it we are now less resilient, and more reliant on the whims of the market and beholden to shareholders of shipping companies.
The oil shocks showed that it was immeterial whether we imported oil in refined or crude form. The local production is exported to where ever the oil companies can make the most money for it.
If there are shortages in markets that can pay more, what do you think is going to happen?
the NZ economy collapses and we do a hard and fast transition to an agrarian economy large based on internal production?
What you and Graeme and Ad are arguing is economics. At some point in a collapse we have a choice between protecting the economy or protecting our ability to function as a nation state. What you are all saying is true, but what gsays and I are saying is true too. We're just talking about different stages of an unknown process.
"…a choice between protecting the economy or protecting our ability to function as a nation state…"
I don't see how there could be a choice between those two things? Aren't they both reliant on the other?
let me rephrase.
"…a choice between protecting the current BAU neoliberal economy or protecting our ability to function as a nation state…"
The economic system we use now isn't the only one, and it's certainly not prepared or useful for what is coming down the line with the polycrisis of climate/ecological collapse, resources depletion and war, social unrest.
But further, if the global economic system collapses, what do you think will happen to the NZ one? We won't have a choice about keeping teh current economic system, but we have choices now about transition, and future proofing (to the extent we can).
The collapse of the global sytem will inivitably collapse NZ.
We have already seen how that works, in several worldwide depressions. We don't have the capacity to transition to an internal economy. Successive Governments of all stripes have demolished local capacity in favour of exporting milk powder. Muldoon was, in fact, the last Government to try and build future resiliance.
Even if we can feed ourselves, do you think neighbours with their huge populations and military, are going to let us be? How do you deal with millions of refugees from countries that no longer support life?
De coupling from the global system is not going to happen. Hell, we can't even de-couple from the economically disastrous reduction on taxes for the hugely wealthy. Global 'War on Fair Taxation' Has Slashed Taxes for Richest 1% by a Third (commondreams.org)
The best thing for resiliance, as far as energy goes, is to separate ourselves from the global system of oil supply and rely on sustainable local sources.
It still needs a large degree of hope, that in the inevitable catastrophic failure of global climate, New Zealanders will be allowed to use our own resources. Resources that NACT will have already sold.
"If there are shortages in markets that can pay more, what do you think is going to happen?"
This is the problem with Aotearoa being a global market participant. Our viability as a society is at the whims of 'the market' and companies that have balance sheets that are way bigger than this nation's.
That is why we must pivot away from this Chicago School way of doing things.
We do not have the oil reserves to support our consumption – as Joe90 says we rely on imported crude. Reopening Marsden Point is not going to change that.
https://www.worldometers.info/oil/new-zealand-oil/
the world cannot afford our consumption, we are one of the countries well into overshoot. That's the not the issue, because we have to drop consumption anyway. The issue is what would happen if we lose access to imported crude. Can we mine our own crude but no longer have a way of refining it?
All these debates (including I would guess NZF), revolve around the idea that civilisation is going to continue BAU. It's not.
NZF has morphed into a party of idiots. Pandering to anti-vaccers, AGW deniers and other assorted fruit loops.
That is pretty much our entire economy: we mine bulk stuff here and it gets processed elsewhere into a higher value commodity.
Oil. Wood. Milk. Apples. Coal. People. Meat and fish. Wheat. Wool.
Apples aren't mined, they're harvested. In a woodland-style orchard-garden, apple trees need no inputs other than what settles upon them from the sky, across their whole lifecycle. Apple fruits are given generously and nothing is asked in return. The crop grows greater and greater every year. Sunlight, air, water, and a live medium to grow in, all free, is all that's required for this resource.
Pears and plums also, feijoa, fig, peach, apricot, quince, loquat, grape, mulberry, sweet chestnut, hazel, walnut; this is just the first few of a very long list 🙂
They are barely value-added whether you call it mined or harvested, despite decades of breeding and exporting.
To all but the Lorax Loners, Localist Lifestylers and Deep Retreaters, an apple is a thing on a stack in a supermarket.
Yeah, thanks, Ad – ups to you!
Education about food stories is important in changing attitudes.
Many of us still have memories of or access to sweet smelling fresh fruit. Food kms matter.
People once had your attitude to the car and walked in front of it at 5 miles an hour with a flag calling "car coming" so it did not scare the work horses.
Now we have to face that the age of the car needs a rethink, as it is a resource greedy thing which pollutes.
Local foods and 15 minute cities are on the planning board, pity our cities have such dinosaurs as mayors.
Imho, many LLs are more in touch with reality than the everyman.
At Eden Park today, the Black Caps needed 42 runs off the last over, but it's only a game – you win some, you lose some.
As a species, we've had a good run – you win some, you lose some.
the apple as a thing on a supermarket shelf won't be a thing for very much longer in human terms if we don't transition.
eg frosts taking out the flowers/buds, extreme heat causing apple drop or making it impossible for workers to be in the orchard, high winds or floods damaging trees and apples, changes in insect populations.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-climate-change-hurt-this-years-apple-harvest/
Meanwhile, the regen farmers are ahead of the game in terms of adapting to variation in weather and climate.
Don't need value added to apple varieties that are grown for nutrition and health. The value is in what we eat, and how the land is tended where it grows.
https://www.heritagefoodcrops.org.nz/montys-surprise-apple/
No, not economic, but around having the flexibility to reduce petroleum use seamlessly to as low as possible.
Maintaining Marsden Pt would mean we are locked into usage at the refinery's minimum capacity, then a sudden step to imports or zero. I see it better to make that adjustment as quickly as we can. Also the same situation is playing out in Australia and around the world where refinery capacity is being rationalised to fewer, larger refineries.
The import risks would be similar for refined product or crude. But with both options we have a very sudden adjustment to make if there's any disruption.
The government should nationalize these fossil fuel resources as soon as possible. When the time comes they will then be able to shut them down, where as leaving them in private sector hands is provoking a legal battle getting in the way of dis-establishing these industries.
In 2012 we used 149,000 barrels of oil per day.
By 2019 it peaked at 179,000 per day.
It's now back to 2012 levels.
Our local coal production is the lowest in 33 years. Our coal use continues to decrease – in part from large public subsidy and policy programmes.
Your scale of state intervention isn't warranted.
Keeping a too small, inefficient, long past it's use by date, refinery, running, is Daft!
Nothing to do with resiliance as the oil, whether refined or not, is imported anyway.
We should be transitioning to sustainable energy produced locally, not continuing to spend on oil imports with all the negatives of the fortune we spend propping up the oil industry, on our balance of trade.
Net spending on oil is greater than our net dairy earnings. Replacing that with wind, hydro and solar will be a huge boost to our current account.
Not to mention avoiding all the military spend on supporting US wars, over oil.
Lastly, spending billions to keep oil infrastructure assets going which should be redundant in future, instead of spending on renewables goes against the AGW adaptation we need, which has had the can kicked down the road for too long already.
A fact not mentioned clearly in the concern of government about welfare of late, the 2022 drum beat about the need for opening the border to migrant workers in 2022 – because they were not available locally. The reluctance of employers to hire older workers.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131044912/are-you-past-landing-a-job-at-55-the-reality-of-ageism-despite-labour-shortages
Oh dear! The Cooking Teachers Union is a scam!
"The only problem for the three fledgling unions, all with strong ties to the anti-vax movement, is that there’s no Rachel Mangan, Ken Lawson or Howard Granger on the publicly-accessible registers of teachers, nurses and doctors in New Zealand.
In fact, not one of the names listed on the “testimonials” page of the three unions’ websites shows up on those registers."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350186655/testimonials-new-unions-arent-quite-what-they-seem
"The bravehearts drove on through the fields in the Corolla.
They came across a bottom feeder sitting in the mud.
“Please, M’Lud, a crust of bread is all I ask,” pleads the peon.
“No, my good man. I am the King of Tough Love!”
Replieth proud and pious Luxon the Aspirational.
But the King is also a Just King and a Merciful one,
And tosses the peon a pack of Marlboro Lights
To stave off his hunger pangs."
https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/02/25/an-ode-for-king-luxon/
Not in a Corolla mate – a Rolls, Mercedes or even a PeopleCrusher 5000
But they'll call it a Corolla, coz, Austerity for ALL.
This is not a woman. This is a violent and sadistic man. Not our crimes.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/23/cat-killing-woman-guilty-murdering-man-oxford-scarlet-blake-jorge-martin-carreno
and people wonder why women are so angry.
At least the Guardian explained further down that they are a trans woman. That's an improvement I guess.
Yes, that is how it goes. If the victim is trans – it is a national emergency – declared a "hate crime", vigils are held, new laws are demanded.
If the perpetrator is trans – don't mention it. Well, on para 22 if you must. But you have to make sure that the first words (and the headline) are "woman" and "her".
He is like an old soap ad..
Lux-on…lux-off…
https://www.police.govt.nz/news/release/gang’s-distinctive-motorcycles-destroyed-following-court-order#:~:text=Six%20distinctive%20motorcycles%20that%20were,the%20remains%20as%20scrap%20metal.
Collins never really went away, did she.
Why though, didn't they crush the 4x4s?
P-addiction solution:
I have been out on the road/amongst the (true) precariat for about six years now..
And one observation I would make is how fucked up so many gen xers seem to be…
And it is largely down to alcohol..and 'p'..
And it is p I am addressing here..
And definitions: p is meth/speed..the most garbage/damaging of drugs..
( And while we are at it..'crack' here is not 'crack'..crack is cocaine put thru another chemical process…I have had habits on both of them…largely in other parts of the planet…)
And I would like to present what I think is a viable option to help p-heads kick that crap..and to move them onto something much easier to kick..
I think the treatment authorities should use prescribed cocaine much the same way they used methadone to help heroin addicts quit…
For those people really wanting to quit..allow them to use cocaine to help them get thru the speed-withdrawals..(which can be really fucked ugly..if the literature on the matter is to be believed..)
And I recommend using cocaine for this purpose largely from my own experiences .
In that having been addicted to alcohol/heroin/ciggies/coke/crack..I have come up with my own withdrawal ranking list..
I have heroin at 8.5.out of ten in difficulty…alcohol and ciggies at 4/10..
And cocaine.?..cocaine struggles to reach 1/10 ..
After using reasonably heroic amounts of the stuff…for a rather long time…(I used to mix it with my heroin..and ..after kicking that..still used coke)
Anyway..I decided to kick it..and that was that..I just stopped..
A couple of mildly restless nites sleep..and that was it..
Compared to anything else cocaine is so easy to kick/stop using..
This is why I would recommend cocaine be available to be prescribed to p-addicts..to get them thru the hell of meth-withdrawals..as a stepping-stone..
(Happy to answer any questions..
Anyone got any better solutions..?)
Good on you for having the strength of will. That may be an answer for some.
Sounds like that approach could be worth a try. The authorities could test its effectiveness, maybe?
I just hope NZ doesn't follow the USA and Canada and get a wave of fentanyl, which is impossible to get off once you start on it. Apparently the dealers mix it in with heroin but don't tell their customers.
I think there has to be a change in mindset by the medical professionals…to treating cocaine just like any other medication..and using it for those purposes..
It would be effective to help p-addicts..and would also be very effective for the aged/infirmed…
and with/for the latter it would be delivering a better quality of life..when that is most needed..
And what's wrong with that..?
A troubling* article, NYT freebie, about how girls are being promoted on social media by their parents.
yuk*
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/22/us/instagram-child-influencers.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Xk0.kP-g.QEqSLFLcdo4a&smid=wa-share
Too little, too late.
/
The United States on Friday restored its longstanding policy that settlements are inconsistent with international law, reversing a stance implemented by the former administration, hours after Israel announced a plan to advance the construction of thousands of new settlement homes in response to a terror shooting in the West Bank.
“We’ve seen the reports and I have to say we’re disappointed in the announcement,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in response to a question on the matter during a press conference in Argentina.
“It’s been long-standing US policy under Republican and Democratic administrations alike that new settlements are counterproductive to reaching an enduring peace.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-pans-israeli-w-bank-construction-plans-revives-policy-deeming-settlements-illegal/
"We’ve seen the reports and I have to say we’re disappointed in the announcement,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in response to a question on the matter during a press conference in Argentina.
“It’s been long-standing US policy under Republican and Democratic administrations alike that new settlements are counterproductive to reaching an enduring peace.”
The genocide-enabling USA make me want to puke. "Disappointed". Really?
How about what you are doing is wrong on so many levels so fucking stop it or we will not supply you with any more weapons and you're on your own."
Nah. It's just "counter-productive."
The USA government should be despised as genocide enablers.
Because becoming more conservative as you age is about about getting richer. And millennials/gen z have never got richer because boomers grabbed the lot for themselves. It's not fucking rocket science.
/
The Link between Age and Conservatism Is Breaking
Millennials and Gen Z are not becoming more conservative as they age, as generations before them did. Why?
[…]
Most polls show that Millennials and Gen Z are not becoming more conservative as they age, the way that Boomers and Gen X did before them.
https://archive.li/jWQBQ (NRO)
Dunno if you can blame the boomers…
They only lived under the dictates of successive governments…and they are the ones who skewed the playing field so…
Remove the boomers…and you still have the same political masters…doing the same shit..
..and the same poverty etc…
Blame the politicians (of all stripes..)
Don't scapegoat all over the boomers…
It only takes a few bastards in each generation to ensure things never really change for the better. Don't blame the entire generation.
How is things in Moscow ?
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
[One month off for flaming – Incognito]
[I have reduced your ban to two weeks because you apologised. Let this be a lesson for the future – Incognito]
Hows your small penis?
[Three weeks off for counter-flaming – Incognito]
Mod note
Mod note
Second Mod note
Of course the coalition of chaos plans to allow the Seamounts of the Southwest Pacific to be vandalised.
In the Southeast Pacific, off the coast of Chile, underwater mountains create a breathtaking deep-sea landscape where cold-water corals, intricate glass sponges, anemones, and a host of creatures that captivate the imagination are thriving. Nearly half of the animals living here exist nowhere else on Earth. Seamounts are oases for biodiversity; for the last month, an international team of scientists explored this understudied region in our global ocean. Data and imagery collected on the #SEPacificSeamounts expedition will help advance Chile’s effort to establish a high-seas marine protected area along the Nazca and Salas y Gómez Ridges.
VALPARAISO, Chile – An international group of scientists, led by Dr. Javier Sellanes of the Universidad Católica del Norte, may have discovered more than 100 new species living on seamounts off the coast of Chile. The recent Schmidt Ocean Institute expedition resulted in identifying deep-sea corals, glass sponges, sea urchins, amphipods, squat lobsters, and other species likely new to science.
https://schmidtocean.org/underwater-mountains-harbor-abundant-life/
https://schmidtocean.photoshelter.com/galleries/C0000QszlkoaNkKU/G0000ISlDmCQILdA/Seamounts-of-SE-Pacific-FKt240108-Press-Release
[image resized – Incognito]
"police given extra powers to stop gang members congregating "
So, freedom of association is gone, but freedom of speech is in; that's straightforward!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350191502/new-law-give-police-courts-greater-powers-gang-crackdown
Those new laws are basically unenforceable. Mere window-dressing to keep the useful idiots happy.
There is a wry chuckle to be had considering the millions spent on the rebranding, so that we will use the name Woolworths.
The rats in the Dunedin supermarket are at a Countdown.