Open mike 25/05/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, May 25th, 2024 - 62 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

62 comments on “Open mike 25/05/2024 ”

  1. SPC 1

    Let's grant Damien the courtesy of a reply to his latest effort at demonstrating the ineptness of what passes for thinking out loud by libertarians.

    He first notes that most of the income received by Kainga Ora for housing its tenants comes from a government rent subsidy top up.

    And suggests because the amount paid by tenants is so much less than that for private market rentals, it would be better for both government and tenants, if they were gifted ownership of their property.

    Thus the government would lose $30B ($45B of asset to remove $15B of debt).

    He seems to fail to note that government can afford the cost of subsidising rent and borrowing to build more housing, because its land and property assets are rising in value – does he know nothing about the value of CG via ownership? How landlords acquire more and more property via leverage?

    Most of our populations wealth is in the rising value of the land and yet he pretends to fail to understand.

    It shows he just does not care about the health of government finances. And wants to divest government of its assets and capability.

    Bill English just wants the coalition to do the same more slowly – less new debt and rising property value portfolio for Kainga Ora and transfer of taxpayer money to other social housing providers.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350287662/what-do-problem-kainga-ora

    • AB 1.1

      It shows he just does not care about the health of government finances. And wants to divest government of its assets and capability

      Yep – and and also true for Luxon, Willis, Seymour etc. The scary talk about debt is just to garner popular support for their real agenda

      Bill English just wants the coalition to do the same more slowly – less new debt and rising property value portfolio for Kainga Ora and transfer of taxpayer money to other social housing providers.

      Yep – and just wait for the definition of social housing providers to be radically widened beyond what the popular imagination would normally consider to be such a thing. It's likely to encompass private sector mega-landlords showing their commitment to something called "the community" through participation in the Government's "social investment strategy" – aka Billy's Boondoggle.

    • mikesh 1.2

      Perhaps the calculations would be different if the government gifted the house but retained ownership of the land, which they would then rent out to the tenant. That rent could be kept relatively low with respect to the household income, and would take take into account the fact that the house was no longer included in the rent.

      • Descendant Of Smith 1.2.1

        I've long argued that housing could be much cheaper if government owned the land and all you had to do was buy the house.

        Put the land on 99 year peppercorn leases – after all if it is good enough for Taranaki farmers…..

      • SPC 1.2.2

        Not with state houses, but to help people into first homes (also hopefully Kiwi Saver and NZSF move to provide long term rentals).

        That would allow more into a home than the First Start deposit (given rising land values).

        And the rising land value would be a government asset.

    • Craig H 1.3

      I don't have a problem personally with giving tenants the house eventually, but would do it after 12 years of paying 25% of income as rent regardless of income (so no maximum rent) since after that, the tenant would have paid 3 year's worth of income as rent.

      • SPC 1.3.1

        Not with the land, the government needs the rising land value to borrow against to build more new state housing.

        • Craig H 1.3.1.1

          Could be set up as peppercorn (or no) leaseholds, and probably a clause in the contract or legislation that gives the Crown first right of refusal on sale at a reasonably low value to avoid it being on-sold at high profits.

          That said, does the Crown need to retain the land? If it wants to borrow, it can do it via A grade bonds backed by a sovereign currency with no history of defaults. It doesn't need to land as collateral.

          • SPC 1.3.1.1.1

            1.giving people land ownership while others were paying market rents (and unable to afford to buy) would be unwise.

            2.this is why I prefer assistance to those paying market rents into home ownership on leasehold land and continuing with income related rent for state housing.

            3.debt to assets is an important part of government accounts (across time).

  2. ianmac 2

    The Technology Institutes had embarked on Reform by unififying the content so that experts in soil management for example would design a universal program so that each Institute could use the same plan.

    No! No says Penny Symonds. De-Unify this minute!

    Reading programs were designed by teachers using a wide range of methods.

    No! No says Erica Stanford. Unify the teaching of Reading and we will call it what the Dyslexic Association named it, Structured Literacy.

    Does this sound like a coherent consistent plan or does it sound like a shambles?

    (Incidentally, 80% of children do learn to read using the previous systems, but it is true that the 20% who can't, do need specific help, but bath/baby spring to mind.)

    • weka 2.1

      as a general principle, we should do both. We need national standards, but we also need those to be adaptable to local situations. All good sustainability design arises out of the environment in which it will be applied, because the local environment is what we have to work with.

      • ianmac 2.1.1

        The trouble with National Standards Weka, is that no two people learn at the same rate. We might say that the average class of 10 year old reads at the 10year Reading age. But some of those children read at the 15+ RA and some are reading at the 7y RA with all the others sprinkled between. Those below 7y RA need specific assistance. And they always had needs as the NZ long tail has shown. (Dyslexia.)

        NZ has always had majority of children reading very well above "average" with a significant number weighing the average down. In UK there was (is?) a test day so cunning Principals asked certain kids to stay home so that their averages stayed higher.

        (Note: Just because a 10 year old has a RA of 15+ doesn't mean that they should read Adult books because their interests are still that of 10 year olds.)

        • Descendant Of Smith 2.1.1.1

          (Note: Just because a 10 year old has a RA of 15+ doesn't mean that they should read Adult books because their interests are still that of 10 year olds.)

          I dunno bout that. By 10 I was reading stuff like Robert Ruark's – Uhuru, Edge and Adam Steele westerns, Robert Heinlen's – Stranger in a Strange Land, loads more scifi.

          Even just looking at stuff now I got for Christmas that I can find – Black Beauty at 5, Dog Crusoe at 7, Huckleberry Finn and Ivanhoe at 8. I distinctly remember outgrowing the traditional children stuff and moving to adult books post the Ivanhoe / Three Musketeers era – somewhere in that period was Wilbur
          Smith as well – though I think I was about 15 when I realised that Sean was not pronounced "seen". Sadly I also read the Erich von Däniken stuff about then as well.

          11 to 12 was reading Sven Hassell (became interested after reading The Blue Max to read more books about the opposition's perspective of the war), Anne McCaffrey, etc etc

          The point is, is that there was nothing in any of that that was not able to be read and understood and worked through – sex, violence, religion (for and against).

          I read plenty of non-fiction too and magazines like my uncles Mind Alive.

          I'm not sure what you mean by interests of 10 year olds. Just let people read what they are comfortable with. I suspect there may be some stuff I didn't fully understand at the time but not much – and if I didn't understand it it likely didn't matter. Just like so many people don't pick up on what Lola by The Kinks is about ….

          • Belladonna 2.1.1.1.1

            I, too, was an extensive reader (and borrower of books from the adult section of my local library) – lovely librarians who were delighted to help me find new authors.
            I think that I would have been bored silly by the 'books suitable for 10-year-olds' then (and even more so, now, when the literary level has been lowered even further).
            If I was (and I was) interested in historical fiction, then the natural progression from Rosemary Sutcliffe, Cynthia Harnett, or Elsie Locke (all, BTW, probably too 'advanced' for today's 10-year-olds) – was Jean Plaidy, Mary Renault, or Robert Graves (or even Georgette Heyer). – from the shelves of the adult collection.

            I will admit that I entirely skipped over the YA novels – which seemed to be entirely concerned with relationships or social problems – neither of which I was interested in.

            If something came up in one of the novels (or non-fiction books) which I didn't understand – I could always discuss with my family (dinner-table conversations about torture, martyrdom, abuse, political shenanigans, etc.).

            As an aside, I vividly remember the first time I asked my Dad something he didn't know the answer to (What was the Babington Plot) – and he said 'I don't know, but let's go and find out' – leading to consulting an encyclopedia, and a further trip to the library to look into Tudor history – no Google in those days).

            It made a huge impression on me. Not only that adults didn't know everything, but that it was OK (even praiseworthy) to admit it, and go and find the answer.

            • Descendant Of Smith 2.1.1.1.1.1

              A L Rowse's book on The Tudors was fascinating.

              We'd all gotten used to death and destruction I guess quite early on reading the bible from cover to cover anyway. Pretty sure I knew what killing people, stoning people to death, adultery, eternal damnation and being prejudiced was about quite early on in the piece. As well as the good bits. Focus on the good bits……..

              • Belladonna

                My 8-year-old was horrified by the killing of the first-born (reason for the Jewish Passover). The Bible is not for the faint-hearted!

                The Wars of the Roses was the inspiration for Game of Thrones – those of us familiar with Medieval history were not surprised by any of the blood-thirsty dramatization.

                • SPC

                  As was Scottish history.

                  George R. R. Martin has stated many times that the Massacre of Glencoe, along with the Black Dinner at Edinburgh Castle in 1440, is what gave him the idea for Game of Thrones' most infamous scene – the Red Wedding.

                  And the wall and storms of winter coming from the north.

                  https://blog.nms.ac.uk/2019/02/14/exploring-the-true-history-behind-game-of-thrones-at-the-national-museum-of-scotland/

                  As to the bible stuff, the acts of god are just exaggerations of abuse of power judgment (beyond the capacity of empire, let alone mere kings). And there is no evidence any of them were real (not even a conquest of Canaan and decimation of the population). It can be explained as the shock and awe narrative of cult myth making.

                  Though belief in such inspires real acts of dubious morality by those of Christian, Moslem and Jewish faith.

          • ianmac 2.1.1.1.2

            "(Note: Just because a 10 year old has a RA of 15+ doesn't mean that they should read Adult books because their interests are still that of 10 year olds.)"

            I too read anything and every thing. What I meant was that teachers who read a 15+ RA should not thrust adult books on kids as part of the reading program. There is heaps of stuff available for challenging instruction. (I remember a book from the National Library Exchange whizzing around a class of 10 year old girls. Judy Blume wrote for younger kids but this particular book that excited the girls, was the book aimed at adolescents experimenting with sex. RA 15+.)

    • Belladonna 2.2

      I don't know where you're getting your figure of 80% of kids learning to read under balanced literacy (the current MoE approach to teaching).
      We don't have any figures – AFAIK – measuring this for primary age children.

      The only independent measure has been the pass rate at the NCEA literacy test – which has been hovering around 65% for reading.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/499391/ncea-numeracy-literacy-test-results-show-55-percent-student-pass-rate

      Meaning that around 35% of kids are functionally illiterate at age 14-15.

      The PISA test found that 21% of NZ 15-year-olds were 'reading' at the lowest level (either completely or functionally illiterate)

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/516423/using-a-structured-literacy-approach-to-teach-reading-what-you-need-to-know

      Note: this is *after* any interventions such as Reading Recovery, and/or expensive tutoring programmes (for higher wealth families).

      Given that, I'd put the success rate of balanced literacy approach in actually teaching reading in the classroom- closer to one third (which aligns with overseas results)

      https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/two-thirds-of-american-kids-cant-read-fluently/

      Yes, of course, *some* kids learn to read under balanced literacy. They will also learn to read under structured literacy (phonics based) – and would probably learn to read with no actual teaching at all (all those anecdotes of people teaching themselves to read as preschoolers).

      Yes, of course, *some* kids will not learn under structured literacy in the classroom and will need further intervention. But – all the research shows, that it's a lot fewer of them (and the current Reading Recovery programme won't teach them either)

      The point is that structured literacy has a whole string of research-based evaluation – everything from neuroscience (what's going on in your brain when you learn to read), through to practical classroom-based results (including in NZ) – to show that it's a better methodology for teaching *all* kids to read.

      Time for the NZ teachers unions and the MoE to get on with implementing best-practice, rather than trying to defend their previous (failing) systems.

      • ianmac 2.2.1

        The assumption is that "35%" of children based on the offered data cannot read.

        Yet Pisa stated 21% of 15 year olds reading at the lowest level. That leaves 79% at some reading skill through to above age levels. Included in the below to high group is a group of kids who have mono-syllabic language language skills, deprived backgrounds where going to school is not part of their survival skills. I do not think it is possible for every kid to be above average. If they were then average would have no place.

        The structured learning program was designed for the dyslexic kids who were failing, by the Dyslexic association and good on them. (Spectacles help poor sight so will we give every person a pair of spectacles?)

        We will look forward to seeing if the quality of reading that we enjoyed, will translate from the mechanics and dissection of the bits of words into meaningful language. (I helped an adult man recently who could read the words but had never learned to understand the wholeness of the language.)

        • Belladonna 2.2.1.1

          And your evidence for the 80% of kids learning to read through the current classroom balanced literacy approach has still not been provided.

          The difference between the PISA results and the NCEA ones can very easily be explained by a difference in evaluation (I would assume that the bottom and next to bottom PISA results would be equivalent to the NCEA result – covering those kids who have some level of literacy, but are functionally illiterate when measured against NCEA standards)

          Note that the PISA results absolutely do not include those kids who are not present at school, and I would strongly argue, don't include many kids who are noticeably struggling with learning. PISA evaluation is an 'opt-in' programme- and not all schools opt in (and not all students at those schools participate).

          The structured learning programme may well benefit Dyslexic kids – but it also benefits many, many other children. There is zero evidence that only dyslexic kids are failing to learn to read using the current system – indeed thousands of kids, with no identifiable learning disability (apart from failing to learn to read), are being sent to Reading Recovery. Which makes this whole argument, a red herring.

          The proof is, as always, in the pudding. But NZ schools which have already transitioned to structured literacy (at their own cost, and against MoE pressure) have reported significantly improved results for their students in learning to read.

          https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/education/schools-footing-the-bill-to-teach-teachers-new-literacy-approach/3SMWSF3BSOCO5LJ76733SMBIOQ/

          • ianmac 2.2.1.1.1

            Thanks Belladonna. Your thoughts are well informed and useful. In my time teaching NE to year 6, most of the kids could read from a bit below to 15+ but now in my 80s, so perhaps I need a wee lie down.

            • Belladonna 2.2.1.1.1.1

              Appreciate the discussion Ianmac. Reading and literacy are a subject that I care deeply about. And the reality that too many Kiwi kids can't read worries me a lot.
              Not so much reading for pleasure (although that's been a lifelong recreation for me) – but I recognize not everyone gets their kicks out of books.
              But being able to read full stop. It's a huge barrier to employability (no driver's licence for example, or not able to read safety briefings), and to participation in society.

              Well-researched and successful changes to teaching practice are absolutely worth trying.

              I supported this under Jan Tinetti (although I doubted that she'd get it across the line against the MoE). And I support it under Stanford.

  3. Incognito 3

    Does Chris Luxon shave? The answer is No! because he doesn’t have the balls to stimulate the growth of any facial hair. The reason is that he’s been politically castrated and neutered by his coalition buddies in a messy coup d’état.

    But if/when he does grow some balls shit will hit the fan and the most likely scenario is that he’ll be replaced to keep the coalition alive.

    But it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Prime Minister overrides his co-deputies to mete out the same clear and swift retribution suffered by National Party MPs and ministers. It’s unlikely the coalition would come out of that unscathed.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/05/22/christopher-luxon-the-disciplinarian/

    • Drowsy M. Kram 3.1

      But if/when he does grow some balls…

      Unlikely sad – who needs balls when you're juggling seven properties. The whole governance thing is tangential to getting 'our' country back on a landLord's track.

      'No cause' terminations remind renters 'they are at the whim' of landlords
      [11 April 2024]

      Who chooses to be a tenant in NZ? Imagine what it's like for, say, a family with children to always be only 90 days away from eviction – that’s the 'stability' rent will buy.

      https://rentersunited.org.nz/

      In Vienna, the Renters’ Utopia [10 Oct 2023]
      Soaring real estate markets have created a worldwide housing crisis. What can we learn from a city that has largely avoided it?

      That's what differentiates Vienna. Perhaps no other developed city has done more to protect residents from the commodification of housing. In Vienna, 43 percent of all housing is insulated from the market, meaning the rental prices reflect costs or rates set by law – not "what the market will bear" or what a person with no other options will pay.

      The mean gross household income in Vienna is 57,700 euros a year, but any person who makes under 70,000 euros qualifies for a Gemeindebau unit. Once in, you never have to leave. It doesn't matter if you start earning more. The Government never checks your salary again.

      Vienna is also the city with the shortest working week, ~29.5 hours on average, and the 7th most productive city in the world. Vienna shows that planning/regulation to minimise landLord greed is possible. And, with what's in the pipeline, imho NZ govts would be stupid to stay on a landLord's track. Just hope we don't run out of time.

      Three great forces rule the world: stupidity, fear and greed. – Einstein

      Lacking Incentives, Not Information. Why Politicians tend to be Less Responsive to Lower-Income Citizens
      [19 Feb 2024]
      The principle that democracies give all citizens an equal voice is challenged by scholarly work showing that policies tend to be biased in favor of the more wealthy citizenry.

      Govt policies tailored for the wealthy, not the people – Greens [19 May 2024]

      https://www.greens.org.nz/ending_poverty_together

      • Incognito 3.1.1

        If only prospective tenants could find out the history of bonds lodged for a given rental address – dates only would suffice, but actual dollar-amounts would be a bonus – then this could serve as a warning bell not to touch it with a barge pole. Knowledge is power and tenants need all the power they can get in this lopsided environment.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 3.1.1.1

          yes although that info might be ruled off limits due to 'commercial sensitivity' sad

          • Incognito 3.1.1.1.1

            Yeah, that excuse is wheeled out way too easily and often, IMO. A rental agreement is a legal (commercial) contract between two parties and both parties should be able to do full due diligence, e.g., make it a pre-requirement before lodging the bond. This could be seen as the equivalent of obtaining a LIM report, title check, and builder’s report when buying a house – one could call it a RIM report.

  4. joe90 4

    Man or bear?

    .

    There’s no time to think, so I operate on instinct. My task is ridiculously complex. I need to deescalate any signs of aggression, guide the man into a state of emotional balance, and exit the situation safely, all at once. This process requires all of my attention, energy, and intellect. It’s really hard.

    I’ve been in this position so many times that it exhausts me just to write about it. Sometimes, it’s not that I’m afraid of men; I’m just really, really tired.

    https://bikepacking.com/plog/man-or-bear-debate/

    • ianmac 4.1

      When confronted with a bear here is what you should do. Run like mad. It will give you something to do in the last minutes of your life.

      • Descendant Of Smith 4.1.1

        Best advice I ever heard was to never, ever take your pants off and climb a tree. If you do you'll always have a bear behind.

  5. Subliminal 5

    The ICJ has now formally agreed with the SA application for urgency in dealing with Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza by demanding they cease operations in Rafah, open the Rafah crossing to allow the quantity of needed aid into Gaza (at last count, perhaps 10 trucks – pictures showed these only half full, perhaps due to the instability of a floating platform – had delivered aid to warehouses, a big zero to acrual Palestinians), and to allow any investigators of appropriate UN bodies in.

    Of course, the chances of this occurring so long as the US remains staunch in its support for genocide, approaches zero. With regard to ICC warrants, Germany has conceded that should Netanyahu or Gallant visit after the warrants have been issued they will be obliged to arrest them.

    The US is now increasing the depth of its complicity with law changes enabling US citizens in the IDF to claim the same benefits as US servicemen. It is estimated that around 20,000 US citizens serve in the IDF. One of the benefits accrued will be immunity from prosecution for war crimes.

    In effect, H.R. 8445 is a measure designed to ensure U.S. legal and financial protections are being extended directly to U.S. citizens on the ground in Occupied Palestine as they assist in the ongoing colonization, ethnic cleansing, and genocide of Palestinians.The amendments it proposes formally bring U.S. citizens fighting in a foreign military into the fold, opening up further incentives for becoming an active participant in the Gaza genocide.

    In addition to those serving in the IDF, US citizens have a large footprint in Israeli cotrolled areas.

    This figure is bolstered further by the reality that an estimated 600,000 Americans were living in areas under Israeli control, including illegal West Bank settlements, prior to October 7. These settlers play key roles in advancing Zionist and, by extension, U.S. imperial interests. As such, it is no surprise that they have been consistently enabled to travel and settle in Occupied Palestine, being joined by billions of dollars in U.S. military and economic aid.

    https://mondoweiss.net/2024/05/new-bill-seeks-to-extend-u-s-military-benefits-to-americans-serving-in-the-idf/

  6. Incognito 6

    Albeit a little late, this is much-needed funding from central government to add to allocation by local government to clear choked and blocked waterways in greater Auckland of debris.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/517790/funding-boost-aims-to-clear-auckland-waterways-of-debris

    With increased housing density and in-fill housing one wonders if these clean-up efforts are going to be enough to prevent future flooding and major infrastructure damage caused by natural events. Probably not.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ourchangingworld/audio/2018936992/how-much-of-our-extreme-weather-is-due-to-climate-change

    People could help by stopping littering, taking waste to waste & recycling stations, and by reporting major blockages in/of waterways by debris.

    People who recycle should be paid instead of charged a recycling cost. I used to help my primary school collect old newspapers because they could earn money by selling it for recycling. In the Netherlands there’s a container deposit on glass and plastic bottles and cans and customers/consumers receive their deposit back upon returning the empty containers; many Dutch love it!

  7. ianmac 7

    Interesting if we were to collate the malfeasance of the Government because bit by bit they slip bits through. So guess what. In Nick Rockel's Korero he has published Gerald Otto's compilation, from the side bar:

    "Threads of Corruption."

    https://nickrockel.substack.com/p/threads-of-corruption

  8. SPC 8

    Footnote: Further to that “independent” review of Kāinga Ora by Bill English whose departing record in his final year in office ( o.e. minus 1500 state houses) somehow qualified him to damn Kāinga Ora, which was well on track to build 4,800 to 6,000 state houses a year. Despite its allegedly “unsustainable”forecast debt of $9 billion debt, Kāinga Ora was actually building up housing assets worth tens of billions

    The salient detail is that the coalition of chaos was/is trying to imply that Kainga Ora''s operational management was the concern as per growing debt forecasts, when this was mostly related to the build up planned.

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2405/S00075/on-blurring-the-lines-around-political-corruption.htm

    • Traveller 8.1

      "The salient detail is that the coalition of chaos was/is trying to imply that Kainga Ora''s operational management was the concern as per growing debt forecasts, when this was mostly related to the build up planned."

      That is a political red herring thrown up by Labour. The assets being accumulated mean nothing, if the organisation can't generate sufficient cash flow to service and pay back the debt.

      KO is forecasting losses over somewhere around $2.5bn over the next 4 years. Interest costs exceeded the net operating income for 2023 and are forecast to do the same for 3 of the subsequent 4 years. KO is facing negative net operating cash flows such that they will have to take on even more debt just to pay its interest.

      KO has been poorly governed – it doesn't matter which way you slice this.

      • SPC 8.1.1

        Landlords who leverage do just fine. They become multi-millionaires.

        Some farmers operate at a loss for years too, provided the equity grows they survive.

        • Belladonna 8.1.1.1

          Landlords who are unable to pay the mortgage – either from rents or supplemented with other revenue – do not do 'fine'. They either sell the loss-making house, or the bank forecloses.

          Some may well run at an interest-only mortgage for some time (although banks are fairly wary about these, with the potential for a dropping housing market). And many may just break even (or even make a technical small loss – although they can not set that off against any other taxes).

          I don't have an issue with KO having borrowed money to build the houses. But there is indeed an issue if the interest repayments are increasing substantially – with no way to offset these by increased income.

          Note that money spent on repaying interest is not available for other uses. And if that amount of money increases a lot over the next few years, then what do you think the government should cut to pay for it?

          Landlords at the very least, have to ensure that their outgoings on interest, are balanced by their income on rents.

          The argument that they make their profit when they sell (assuming it’s outside the bright line period) – is indeed true. But not relevant to the government – unless they are proposing to sell off this state housing (which I think, we’d all say is not desirable)

          • SPC 8.1.1.1.1

            Any landlord having a problem paying a mortgage out of rent income can just borrow more against the property (as farmers do in any year where cost is higher than profit). Using growth in equity (CG).

            Landlords were doing this because of rising interest payment liability coinciding with the full realisation of Labour's end to deduction of this cost against rent income. There were not any mortgagee sales.

            And now with the CoC in power they will be back buying more.

            An organisation with $15B in debt and $45B in assets was well set to add thousands of new builds each year.

            • Traveller 8.1.1.1.1.1

              They can’t just borrow more if they can’t meet the costs of servicing the loans, and if they have no foreseeable ability to repay the loans.

            • Traveller 8.1.1.1.1.2

              There were not any mortgagee sales.
              Do you rent? Did you notice what happened to rents?

              • SPC

                Rents go up because of a shortage of supply.

                Landlords were able to ride the rise in mortgage cost because they had equity from CG (did you not notice the rise in property value 2019-2021).

                • Traveller

                  Property sales peaked in mid 2021, and the market peaked around November 2021. Since then, landlords equity has been declining.

                  Rents go up by more when landlords costs go up in a market where supply lags demand.

                  • SPC

                    Landlord equity is higher in 2024 than in 2019, much higher – so this can be borrowed against to manage a temporary rise in mortgage cost.

                    Rents go up when there is a market shortage, the constraint is ability of the tenant class to afford the rent (and desirability of the landlords property vs others)

                    • Traveller

                      Landlord equity means nothing if landlord income cannot fund the debt.

                      As far as rents are concerned, market pressure from excess demand is going to be exacerbated when landlords have additional costs imposed on them. And we know that from the data. From 2008 through 2017, the median weekly rent in NZ increased by just 4% per year. From 2017 through 2023, the average rise was 6%. In 2023 alone the increases was 9%! That's the impact of government policy right there.
                      https://figure.nz/chart/dnQKC3FHjhAE6Kqw

                    • SPC

                      Maybe the high level of migrant labour inflow 2022-23 has an impact on rent demand.

                      Anyone whose equity has gone from 40% to 66% can borrow money rather easily (banks know higher mortgage rates are temporary).

                    • Traveller

                      Maybe the high level of migrant labour inflow 2022-23 has an impact on rent demand.

                      And in adding that level of demand, the government just made things worse. Add costs to suppliers, and then throw extra demand on top.

                      Anyone whose equity has gone from 40% to 66% can borrow money rather easily (banks know higher mortgage rates are temporary).

                      Where do those figures come from? You're also forgetting that interest rates have risen substantially. Any landlord who purchased in the year or so up to November 2021 will have seen their equity decline.

                    • Belladonna

                      Anyone whose equity has gone from 40% to 66% can borrow money rather easily (banks know higher mortgage rates are temporary).

                      Really? You have evidence that people with an increase in equity, but not increase in income (either current or projected) can "borrow money rather easily"?

                      Perhaps you could share the source of your information.

            • Belladonna 8.1.1.1.1.3

              No. Banks require landlords to prove that they have a reasonable expectation that income will grow to meet the mortgage repayment requirements.

              So, yes, the banks may agree to an interest-only period to meet a specific crisis: e.g. someone loses their job, a serious operation (requiring an extended period of convalescence) or the house needs to be gutted and refitted after being trashed by a tenant. Or, as you say, a bad farm year (with future projections being positive). All of those are time-limited issues. If things don't improve (i.e. income doesn't increase) after this period – then the banks will move to foreclosure. [Note that many farms operate on an entirely different commercial reality – with annual mortgage payments, rather than the regular fortnightly ones that most of us experience]

              Banks may also agree to a reverse-mortgage. Although this is usually not for landlords.

              Banks are now stress-testing additions to the capital sum borrowed at something around 9%. And, if you cannot afford this, they will not increase the capital sum they lend to you. They certainly won't loan you more, if you cannot pay interest on the amount you already owe!

              This has nothing to do with the amount of equity you have in the property. It has to do with your ability to pay the interest and repay the capital.

              But, if you cannot meet your interest repayments (setting aside capital repayments) the bank will indeed force foreclosure. From their perspective, a quick mortgagee sale gets them their money – and the prospect of a new loan to someone better able to pay.

              Mortgagee sales rose substantially in 2023.
              https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/cheap-as-2023-the-year-of-price-slashing-mortgagee-sales-and-1-reserves-44381

              But, in any case, comparing private individuals and even companies with state owned housing is entirely pointless.

              Unless you are envisaging that the government is going to sell off state housing in order to achieve the capital gain, the 'assets' have no commercial value. The liabilities (the debt) however, is indeed real, and the government needs to find this money in order to pay off the lenders (interest and capital). If the income generated by the 'assets' isn't sufficient to match the liabilities (and we're just looking at debt here, setting aside maintenance, repairs and rates) – then there is a major issue for the government to manage.

              If these repayments are ballooning because of increased mortgage rates – then this money has to come from somewhere. And means that the government has to cut spending in other areas. There is no money tree.

              Historically, this was why governments issued bonds, rather than borrowing.
              I suspect that the last government was over-persuaded by the very cheap capital available at the time, and didn't consider the long-term consequences if/when that situation changed.

      • Nic the NZer 8.1.2

        There you go, so it is all about Kainga Ora being profitable. According to some psycho the only way NZ should expand social housing provision is at a profit.

        • Traveller 8.1.2.1

          There is no money tree Nic. KO has a funding model that enables it to build new housing and manage social housing stocks. When it is governed well, that works. When the organisation allows its borrowing and operating costs to balloon out beyond what is sustainable, it doesn't.

          • Nic the NZer 8.1.2.1.1

            If the government wants to expand social housing that is a non-issue, if it wants to reduce social housing this is a convenient excuse. That is all that is going on here.

            • Traveller 8.1.2.1.1.1

              The KO funding 'model' has been in place for years. And social housing can expand under that model.

              What changed is that under the governance of KO, operating costs and borrowing were allowed to spiral out of control.

              • Nic the NZer

                You can read that the KO funding model changed just from the report. The conditions include operating surplus within two years (That's what is known as profit in private sector terms, by the way) and it became clear that the boards expectation of increased borrowing (needed to expand social housing) was not going to be reciprocated.

                The governance of KO didn't change, they were sacked for holding onto ideas of the previous government, after the government changed.

                • Traveller

                  The funding model did not change. The way KO is funded is still the way it was funded under the previous government. And BTW, an operating surplus is not the same as a profit in private sector terms. In private sector terms terms 'profit' includes deduction of the cost of funding. The operating surplus examined in the KO review does not include funding costs.

  9. SPC 9

    "Kieran's claim is wrong. We're funding 1500 new homes for people in need. The vast bulk of those will be new houses."

    $140M for 1500 new homes.

    Bishop is now claiming the "vast" bulk of the funded 1500 new "homes" will be new houses.

    It cannot include ownership of new land for housing. So it would have to be homes within existing or new building. One still wonders who can build a house for under $100,000 (a bed sit within a group house maybe)(otherwise factory sourced small build).

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  • Still doing a good 20
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past somewhat interrupted week. Still on the move!Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 weeks ago
  • Coalition of the Unwilling?
    What does Budget 2024 tell us about the current government? Muddle on?Coalition governments are not new. About 50 percent of the time since the first MMP election, there has been a minority government, usually with allied parties holding ministerial portfolios outside cabinets. For 10 percent of the time there was ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    2 weeks ago
  • Of red flags and warning signs in comments on social media
    Somewhat surprisingly for what is regarded as a network of professionals, climate science misinformation is getting shared on LinkedIn, joining other channels where this is happening. Several of our recent posts published on LinkedIn have attracted the ire of various commenters who apparently are in denial about human-caused climate change. Based ...
    2 weeks ago
  • All good, still
    1. On what subject is Paul Henry even remotely worth giving the time of day?a. The state of our nationb. The state of the ACT partyc. How to freak out potential buyers of your gin palace by baking the remains of your deceased parent into its fittings2. Now that New ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 weeks ago
  • The looting is the point
    Last time National was in power, they looted the state, privatising public assets and signing hugely wasteful public-private partnership (PPP) contracts which saw foreign consortiums provide substandard infrastructure while gouging us for profits. You only have to look at the ongoing fiasco of Transmission Gully to see how it was ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

  • Scope of the Northland transmission tower failure review announced
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has today released the terms of reference for the Electricity Authority’s investigation into the Northland transmission tower failure that occurred on 20 June 2024, causing significant power outages in the region.“What happened in Northland last week was unacceptable, with tens of thousands of consumers left without ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 hour ago
  • Minister celebrates students’ space success
    Space Minister Judith Collins is applauding students from Canterbury University’s Aerospace Club on their success at the world’s largest inter-collegiate rocket engineering competition, the Spaceport America Cup. “More than 120 teams from 20 countries participated in Spaceport America Cup, with the team from Canterbury University winning in their ‘30,000 Foot’ ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Address – Commemoration of the 74th Anniversary of the Commencement of the Korean War
    Tena koutou.Ki nga kaumatua,Ki nga whanau,Ka maumahara tonu tatou ki a ratou. Greetings.To the elders,To the families,We will remember them. Firstly, a special welcome to all the veterans here this morning and their families.  I want to acknowledge the veterans who are marking this day but cannot be with us ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • New WorkSafe board appointments to address a history of poor financial management
    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says three appointments to the WorkSafe board have been made to strengthen the organisation, ensuring it has the skills and expertise it needs to carry out its functions.  “WorkSafe has faced a number of recent challenges, including accumulating an almost $18 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Next phase of the Royal Commission into COVID-19
    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says this coalition Government is delivering on our commitment to expand the terms of reference for the independent Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons Learned. “There will be a second phase to the Royal Commission which features new commissioners and an expanded terms of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Government introduces Three Strikes Bill
    The Government has introduced a Bill today to restore the Three Strikes sentencing law, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee says. “New Zealanders are rightly concerned about violent crime. We are delivering on our commitment to introduce a revised Three Strikes law as one of our key law and order priorities.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • New support for agricultural emissions reduction
    The Government and the Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) are together committing an additional $8 million towards AgriZeroNZ to boost New Zealand’s efforts to reduce agricultural emissions. Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says the strength of the New Zealand economy relies on effective and affordable emission reduction solutions for New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Government actions strengthening Māori success
    Tākina Puanga. Ko Puanga kei runga. Ko Puanga e Rangi. Tākina mai te ara o Puanga nui o te rangi. Tākina ngā pou o te tau. Ki te whai ao ki te ao marama. Puanga or Rigel celebrations reflect a renewed energy across our communities – to acknowledge those who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Transformative investment in cancer treatments and more new medicines
    The coalition Government is delivering up to 26 cancer treatments as part of an overall package of up to 54 more new medicines, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti and Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. “Pharmac estimates that around 175,000 people will benefit from the additional treatments in just ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • More support for drought-affected communities
    The coalition Government is providing more financial support to drought-stricken farmers and growers in many parts of the country to help with essential living costs. “Rural Assistance Payments have been made available in 38 districts affected by dry conditions to help eligible farmers and growers whose income has taken a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Job seekers to report on progress after six months from today
    A new requirement for people on Jobseeker Support benefits to meet with MSD after six months to assess how their job search is going gets underway today. About 20,000 Jobseeker beneficiaries with full-time work obligations are expected to attend MSD’s new ‘Work check-in’ seminars over the next 12 months, Social ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New cops means more Police on the beat
    The decision to deploy more Police on the beat in Auckland CBD has been welcomed by Police Minister Mark Mitchell and Associate Police Minister Casey Costello. Starting from 1 July, an additional 21 police officers will be redeployed in Auckland City, bringing the total number of beat police in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government takes action to address youth crime
    The Government is introducing a new declaration for young offenders to ensure they face tougher consequences and are better supported to turn their lives around, Children’s Minister Karen Chhour announced today. The establishment of a Young Serious Offender declaration delivers on a coalition Government commitment and supports the Government’s target ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Reserve Bank chair reappointed
    Professor Neil Quigley has been reappointed as Chair of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Board for a further term of two years, until 30 June 2026.  “Professor Quigley has played a key role in establishing the new Board after the commencement of the new RBNZ Act on 1 July ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • School attendance increases
    School attendance data released today shows an increase in the number of students regularly attending school to 61.7 per cent in term one. This compares to 59.5 per cent in term one last year and 53.6 per cent in term four. “It is encouraging to see more children getting to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Record investment in public transport services
    The Government has announced a record 41 per cent increase in indicative funding for public transport services and operations, and confirmed the rollout of the National Ticketing Solution (NTS) that will enable contactless debit and credit card payments starting this year in Auckland, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“This Government is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • GDP data shows need to strengthen and grow the economy
    GDP figures for the March quarter reinforce the importance of restoring fiscal discipline to public spending and driving more economic growth, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says.  Data released today by Stats NZ shows GDP has risen 0.2 per cent for the quarter to March.   “While today’s data is technically in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Women continue to make up over 50 per cent on public sector boards
    Women’s representation on public sector boards and committees has reached 50 per cent or above for the fourth consecutive year, with women holding 53.9 per cent of public sector board roles, Acting Minister for Women Louise Upston says. “This is a fantastic achievement, but the work is not done. To ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government supporting Māori business success
    The Coalition Government is supporting Māori to boost development and the Māori economy through investment in projects that benefit the regions, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka say. “As the Regional Development Minister, I am focused on supporting Māori to succeed. The Provincial Growth Fund ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Better solutions for earthquake-prone buildings
    Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk has announced that the review into better managing the risks of earthquake-prone buildings has commenced. “The terms of reference published today demonstrate the Government’s commitment to ensuring we get the balance right between public safety and costs to building owners,” Mr Penk says.  “The Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Prime Minister wraps up visit to Japan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has just finished a successful three-day visit to Japan, where he strengthened political relationships and boosted business links. Mr Luxon’s visit culminated in a bilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio followed by a state dinner. “It was important for me to meet Prime Minister Kishida in person ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Major business deals signed on PM’s Japan trip
    Significant business deals have been closed during the visit of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to Japan this week, including in the areas of space, renewable energy and investment.  “Commercial deals like this demonstrate that we don’t just export high-quality agricultural products to Japan, but also our world-class technology, expertise, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Strategic Security speech, Tokyo
    Minasan, konnichiwa, kia ora and good afternoon everyone. Thank you for the invitation to speak to you today and thank you to our friends at the Institute for International Socio-Economic Studies and NEC for making this event possible today.  It gives me great pleasure to be here today, speaking with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • National Infrastructure Pipeline worth over $120 billion
    The National Infrastructure Pipeline, which provides a national view of current or planned infrastructure projects, from roads, to water infrastructure, to schools, and more, has climbed above $120 billion, Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop says. “Our Government is investing a record amount in modern infrastructure that Kiwis can rely on as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Making it easier to build infrastructure
    The Government is modernising the Public Works Act to make it easier to build infrastructure, Minister for Land Information Chris Penk announced today. An independent panel will undertake an eight-week review of the Act and advise on common sense changes to enable large scale public works to be built faster and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ enhances North Korea sanctions monitoring
    New Zealand will enhance its defence contributions to monitoring violations of sanctions against North Korea, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today.  The enhancement will see the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) increase its contributions to North Korea sanctions monitoring, operating out of Japan. “This increase reflects the importance New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Safeguard National Health and Safety Conference
    Good afternoon everyone. It’s great to be with you all today before we wrap up Day One of the annual Safeguard National Health and Safety Conference. Thank you to the organisers and sponsors of this conference, for the chance to talk to you about the upcoming health and safety consultation. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Ōtaki to north of Levin alliance agreements signed
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone for the Ōtaki to north of Levin Road of National Significance (RoNS), following the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) signing interim alliance agreements with two design and construction teams who will develop and ultimately build the new expressway.“The Government’s priority for transport ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Improvements to stopping Digital Child Exploitation
    The Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is making a significant upgrade to their Digital Child Exploitation Filtering System, which blocks access to websites known to host child sexual abuse material, says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden.  “The Department will incorporate the up-to-date lists of websites hosting child sexual ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New vaccine research aims to combat prevalent bovine disease
    A vaccine to prevent an infectious disease that costs New Zealand cattle farmers more than $190 million each year could radically improve the health of our cows and boost on-farm productivity, Associate Agriculture Minister Andrew Hoggard says. The Ministry for Primary Industries is backing a project that aims to develop ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Making it easier to build granny flats
    The Government has today announced that it is making it easier for people to build granny flats, Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters and RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop say. “Making it easier to build granny flats will make it more affordable for families to live the way that suits them ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • High Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Auckland King’s Counsel Gregory Peter Blanchard as a High Court Judge. Justice Blanchard attended the University of Auckland from 1991 to 1995, graduating with an LLB (Honours) and Bachelor of Arts (English). He was a solicitor with the firm that is now Dentons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Health workforce numbers rise
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says new data released today shows encouraging growth in the health workforce, with a continued increase in the numbers of doctors, nurses and midwives joining Health New Zealand. “Frontline healthcare workers are the beating heart of the healthcare system. Increasing and retaining our health workforce ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government to overhaul firearms laws
    Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee has today announced a comprehensive programme to reform New Zealand's outdated and complicated firearms laws. “The Arms Act has been in place for over 40 years. It has been amended several times – in a piecemeal, and sometimes rushed way. This has resulted in outdated ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government delivers landmark specialist schools investment
    The coalition Government is delivering record levels of targeted investment in specialist schools so children with additional needs can thrive. As part of Budget 24, $89 million has been ringfenced to redevelop specialist facilities and increase satellite classrooms for students with high needs. This includes: $63 million in depreciation funding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Major health and safety consultation begins
    A substantial consultation on work health and safety will begin today with a roadshow across the regions over the coming months, says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden.  This the first step to deliver on the commitment to reforming health and safety law and regulations, set out in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Growing the potential of New Zealand’s forestry sector in partnership
    Forestry Minister Todd McClay, today announced the start of the Government’s plan to restore certainty and confidence in the forestry and wood processing sector. “This government will drive investment to unlock the industry’s economic potential for growth,” Mr McClay says. “Forestry’s success is critical to rebuilding New Zealand’s economy, boosting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government cancels forestry ETS annual service charges for 2023-24
    Annual service charges in the forestry Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will be cancelled for 2023/24, Forestry Minister Todd McClay says. “The sector has told me the costs imposed on forestry owners by the previous government were excessive and unreasonable and I agree,” Mr McClay says. “They have said that there ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Speech to the LGNZ Infrastructure Symposium
    Introduction Thank you for having me here today and welcome to Wellington, the home of the Hurricanes, the next Super Rugby champions. Infrastructure – the challenge This government has inherited a series of big challenges in infrastructure. I don’t need to tell an audience as smart as this one that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government boosts Agriculture and food trade with China
    Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard welcomed outcomes to boost agricultural and food trade between New Zealand and China. A number of documents were signed today at Government House that will improve the business environment between New Zealand and China, and help reduce barriers, including on infant formula ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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