Open mike 26/01/2023

91 comments on “Open mike 26/01/2023 ”

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1. tsmithfield 1

   26 January 2023 at 8:52 am

   In a move likely to trigger Putin pacifiers here, I see that Germany is now sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine and is allowing other European nations to send theirs. Also, the US is sending US is sending 31 Abrams tanks. Along with all the Bradleys, Strykers, and other high-end APCs, Ukraine is soon going to have some serious kick-arse weaponry that will cause the Russians a lot of problems.

   And the Ukrainians will soon be getting ground launched small diameter bombs with a range of 150km so most occupied areas in Ukraine and Crimea will likely soon be in range.

   And Britain is considering giving Ukraine long range missiles that will enable them to hit military targets inside Russia, and potentially do a proper job of taking out the Kerch bridge

   I think that it has now been recognised that the quickest path to peace is for the Russians to be totally defeated in Ukraine, and Ukraine is now getting the tools that will enable them to do that.
   • Francesca 1.1

     26 January 2023 at 8:55 am

     Well, thats the story of escalation.Starts with javelins, ends in nukes.
     • Sanctuary 1.1.1

       26 January 2023 at 9:27 am

       I think you'll find it is the other way round.
     • tsmithfield 1.1.2

       26 January 2023 at 9:39 am

       Yes, I agree with you. It is a pity that Russia has been escalating this conflict.

       But Russia has set more red lines than a first-year uni assignment which the west has ignored and Russia has done nothing about.

       And, Putin and his regime will be freaked out about the spooky US intelligence. At the start of the war, the US was releasing emails from Russian military commanders etc complaining about how the US was reading their emails. So, Putin and his regime will know that the US likely knows exactly where they are at any time, and will likely be the first target of any retalatory strike.

       And Russia's key ally, China has told Putin to stop all the nuke talk.

       Most now think Putin's threats were just a bluff, which is a view consistent with evidence to date.
     • UncookedSelachimorpha 1.1.3

       26 January 2023 at 10:57 am

       Well, thats the story of escalation.Starts with javelins, ends in nukes.

       What a dishonest take.

       It started when Russia invaded its sovereign neighbour.

       Escalated further with Russia's warcrimes in Bucha.

       More escalation with the complete destruction of Mariupol and murder of tens of thousands of the civilian residents by Russia..

       More escalation with phony referendums and illegal annexations of Ukrainian territory.

       Then another big escalation with Russia's attacks on civilian infrastructure across Ukraine.
     • Scud 1.1.4

       27 January 2023 at 2:16 am

       NATO, the West & the US abandoned the 1st Strike action/ Policy in the late 60's or in 70's, at pretty much at the request of Germany & couple of other European countries when it was realised MÀD was completely pointless.

       Now NATO has a Political & Defence Posture of gradual response.

       The use of WMD's when I did my CBRND Cse's, pretty much said that WMD Response is last on the list when we look at the employment & use of such Weapons to understand why you would use them in the 1st place.

       If Tsar Poot's goes down to this path, it's all over Red Rover for him.

       The biggest concern would be holding be holding back the Poles & the Baltic States as they still want revenge after 80 odd years for what Russia did in 1939!

       Which btw, I think could the biggest concern atm if Russia does launch another Armoured Assualt/s from Belarus again. The Poles may very well go fuck this EU & NATO Bullshit & charge head first into Belarus or down the Lviv corridor to support the Ukrainian's?

       The reckoning is that Poland (note there is a right wing Polish Government in Power atm, which isn't as bad as the one in the 30's which was a shocker) isn't exactly comfortable of Russia being on its door step again. No matter what old mate from Belarus says atm & quite frankly I don't trust a word coming out of his mouth either atm.
   • Sanctuary 1.2

     26 January 2023 at 9:49 am

     If the Ukrainians get a weapon with the range and accuracy to destroy the Crimean bridge then the chances are they'll regain Crimea. The war is poised at the moment. The attritional battles around Bakhmut have caused heavy losses to both sides – the Ukrainians appear to have lost heavily in Soledar in particular.

     Russian losses however appear to be catastrophic. There is so much video evidence online showing very heavy losses being inflicted on Russian forces who seem to be using a variation of human wave tactics.

     Olga Romanova, the head of Russia Behind Bars, a charity advocating prisoners’ rights says in a video published by the YouTube channel My Russian Rights,

     "…Our data shows that, as of late December, 42,000–43,000 inmates had been recruited. By now, this is probably upwards of 50,000. Out of that number, 10,000 are now fighting at the front, because the rest have either been killed or wounded, or went AWOL, or deserted, or surrendered…"

     So 80% effective loss rate in a few months.

     Other reports indicate the Russian manpower wastage across the entire front can get as high as 1000 a day. As I have said, the Ukrainians are also losing heavily, but nothing like the Russians.

     A unseasonably warm winter seems to have denied the Ukrainians a chance to attack before the mass of Russia's new conscripts enter the fray. Looking at the force composition of both sides in these winter battles they seem to largely be territorial and local defense units. I would guess the best and most professional units are being rested and rebuilt for what is going to be the decisive phase of the war this coming Northern spring/summer.

     These modern tanks will come with fire control systems and thermal optics far superior to anything the Russians have, and will be significant force multipliers. However, weapon systems alone seldom if ever have a strategic impact. The Tiger tank made no difference in WW2. Superior tactics and a sound strategy is more important.
     • tsmithfield 1.2.1

       26 January 2023 at 10:00 am

       There has been little strategic value for the Russians in attacking the likes of Bakhmut and Soledar, and the Ukrainains have been using these pointless attacks as an opportunity to wear down the Russian forces.

       There is a clear pattern to the ebb and flow of this conflict. At the moment we are in the first phase where the Ukrainians wear down Russian forces by conducting fighting withdrawals from inconsequential areas.

       When they have worn down the Russians enough, they will go to the second phase, and back on the attack and regain huge swathes of territory.

       But, they are not entirely on defensive, and are getting close to capturing Kreminna.

       This is much more strategically important than the nonsense the Russians are engaged with at the moment. That is because taking Kremmina will enable the Ukrainians to flank the Russian defence lines, and force the Russians to cede a lot more territory in order to reestablish sound defence lines..
       • Sanctuary 1.2.1.1

         26 January 2023 at 10:53 am

         I would be careful assuming these attritional battles are necessarily all in Ukraines favour. We don't know for sure how heavy the losses are on either side, and while common sense tells us the Russians must be suffering heavier losses, the first world war also informs us that in big artillery siege battles the losses are often more even than you'd think. One thing that has astonished me has been how poor the Ukrainian field works are, or at least the ones I have seen in videos. They lack overhead cover, proper fire steps, parapets/parados, duckboards – all stuff that indicates that this is still an army of amateur volunteers. However, it may just be that these are all we get to see on the telly – the best fortifications may be unfilmed for obvious reasons, but still it is a worry.

         Even if the Russians are suffering very heavy manpower attrition, it doesn't necessarily follow that the Ukraine can outlast the Russians in straight Verdun style slogging match since Russia has a much bigger population and in very Panem style it is sacrificing it's convicts and ethnic minorities to protect the urban ethnic Russian middle class whilst the Ukraine is sacrificing it's volunteers – their graphic designers, IT startup owners, patriotic students etc etc in defense of their homeland.

         The Russian command remains hopelessly fragmented and whilst Putin can call up any number of mobiks it is an open question as to if his generals can equip them properly to be anything more than straw for the furnace.

         The war remains in the balance, lets all hope and pray (and donate money) for a Ukrainian victory this year.
         • tsmithfield 1.2.1.1.1

           26 January 2023 at 12:14 pm

           My understanding is they withdraw when the costs start getting too high. And I understand Russia can outlast Ukraine in a war of attrition if the Ukrainain losses are too high, even if they are less than Russian losses. So, the Bradleys et al will allow the Ukrainians a lot more protection, which will be a good thing.

           Some of the defences are very good. Look at what they are doing at the Belarusian border, for instance. I guess it is a factor of how much time they have available to prepare defences.

           Part of what they are doing in some of these areas is to withdraw, and force the Russians to advance across open fields, which ends up often being a slaughter.
           • Sanctuary 1.2.1.1.1.1

             26 January 2023 at 1:12 pm

             The nature of the Ukrainian defeat at Soledar is hard to work out since reliable information is so thin on the ground.

             However, there is about enough information to suppose the attack there came as a surprise to the Ukrainians who had the area weakly held with territorial units. They reinforced the position to late and were forced to commit mobile reserves to a hasty counter-attack, suffered a repulse, and were forced to retreat from the town. But the thing is it was a defeat, not a voluntary withdrawal.

             These guys here seems reasonably up to date and accurate for AFU deployments, and you can see from this map the Ukrainians have been forced to deploy significant armoured reserves to stabilise the situation around Soledar.

             A rare failure of operational intelligence.
             • Scud …

               26 January 2023 at 3:07 pm

               From what my close associates have told me, the Ukrainian's were caught off guard by the shear numbers of mass infantry thrown at them around the Solader Area.

               Only the Local Armour/ Mobile Reserves have been committed, ie at Divisional Level & below.

               Solader & the surrounding area is becoming an old fashioned WW1 style Defensive Battle.

               The Ukrainian Artillery/ Missile Artillery & UAV's units are doing all the talking in the Solader Area.

               The bulk of the Ukrainian Armoured Corp & it's Panzer Grenadiers (Mech Infantry) have gone to ground. So watch this space once the ground starts firming up.
               • Sanctuary …

                 26 January 2023 at 3:43 pm

                 The Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia appears to have been planned by general Cecilski Hogmanayi Melchettovich with a clumsily telegraphed unsupported frontal attack resulting in very heavy casualties.

                 It is going to be interesting to see how long it is before even Putin's police state gets significant popular blowback.
                 • tsmithfield …

                   26 January 2023 at 3:48 pm

                   This guy I follow who seems to have quite detailed insight and intelligence was saying in his latest videos that the Russians have been losing 3600 per day in that Zaporizhzhia offensive. Not working out too well for them.
                 • Scud …

                   26 January 2023 at 4:18 pm

                   Yep,Especially where they are drawing the Troops from as they still have to go via Moscow thanks to the Russian Military Rail Base logistic System.

                   Which is has ended badly for a few Tsar's & their respective Dumas.
           • Sanctuary 1.2.1.1.1.2

             26 January 2023 at 1:44 pm

             This video shows why the Ukrainians would not have wanted to withdraw from Soledar. The Ukrainian earthworks lack cover and are exposed to accurate artillery fire. The slightly elevated position they are dug to hold is the dominant terrain feature west of Soledar for some distance. Should they lose control of this feature – here or anywhere between Silj and Paraskoviivka – the Russian could bring the E50 supply route under fire. This road, along with the T0504 road which now apparently already under observed fire, are the main all weather supply routes into Bakhmut. Orientation – Silj is visible at 1:16, Soledar at 1:40.

             https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1618319380961714178?cxt=HHwWhIDTteO5tvUsAAAA
             • tsmithfield …

               26 January 2023 at 2:09 pm

               Yeah. I see a lot of that UAV survellience from the Ukrainians as well.

               The takeaway for me is that I would hate to be stuck in a trench in one of those conflicts when a UAV might drop a bomb on me at any moment, or might give my coordinates so artillery can drop a shell exactly on my position.

               A lot of the Russian fortifications don't look much different though. I guess it is just the haste of the situation. As I said, have a look at the Ukrainian fortifications on the Belarusian border that they have been working on for months, or what the Russians are doing at the border between Kherson Oblast and Crimea. It is on a completely different scale.
               • Sanctuary …

                 26 January 2023 at 2:14 pm

                 Check out this picture of the Hindenburg line from 1917…

                 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f3/Hindenburg_line_Bullecourt.jpg
   • Tony 1.3

     26 January 2023 at 1:04 pm

     Putin pacifiers, wow! did you make that name up all by yourself you ignorant shrill, send 200 tanks and it won't make any difference to the outcome of this conflict, have you got air cover for the few measly tanks etc the West can send, answer is NO, they will become sitting ducks and turned into glass, You and the foul mouthed joe90 and the sanctimonious sanctuary and the cog in the wheel have been bleating on since the beginning of the conflict that Russia is on the ropes, Putin is all but done and the nazi infested Ukraine is whopping Russia, absolutely no evidence of that unless you only read western propaganda which you swallow and spit out without critical analysis. All the sanctions have backfired, Europe is turning into a financial backwater and 85% of the Planet is doing business with Russia, you are on the wrong side of history on this issue.

     You say this "But Russia has set more red lines than a first-year uni assignment which the west has ignored and Russia has done nothing about". care to confirm this rubbish with facts?
     • Sanctuary 1.3.1

       26 January 2023 at 1:26 pm

       . <— this is a period. Please try to use it more often. Also, if you have a method of turning metal into glass I’d patent it.
       • Tony 1.3.1.1

         26 January 2023 at 2:13 pm

         Too late it's already been done .. Metals and glass don't seem to have anything in common. Glass is generally transparent and fragile while metals are opaque and extremely strong; but under the right conditions, metals can form glass, and when they do, what results is an opaque, durable, scratch- and corrosion-resistant material that is often stronger than steel. Metallic glass is so versatile it can be used in iPhone cases, the lubricant-free gears of Moon rovers, and electrical transformers. Recently, experiments on the International Space Station that NASA’s Space Life and Physical Sciences Research and Applications (SLPSRA) division funded have revealed aspects of metallic glass formation that could open the door to even greater possibilities

         [Banned for 2 weeks for plagiarism – Incognito]
         • roblogic 1.3.1.1.1

           26 January 2023 at 3:23 pm

           Copypasta without attribution. Nice. (nasa.gov)
         • Incognito 1.3.1.1.2

           26 January 2023 at 4:39 pm

           Mod note
       • tWiggle 1.3.1.2

         26 January 2023 at 11:17 pm

         . This is a full-stop. I gave up on periods years ago.
     • tsmithfield 1.3.2

       26 January 2023 at 1:37 pm

       Putin is all but done and the nazi infested Ukraine is whopping Russia

       This is enough for me to know that you are likely a toxic Russian troll. Get acquainted with some facts instead of spouting nonsense. Russia has its own nazis who Putin has used for his own ends. So, if he is really worried about Nazis, he needs to stop using them, and clean up his own country. From the link:

       The origins of this relationship date to the late 1990s, when Russia was shaken by a wave of racist violence committed by neo-Nazi skinhead gangs. After Putin’s accession to the presidency in 2000, his regime exploited this development in two ways…..

       Second, the Kremlin launched “managed nationalism”, an attempt to co-opt and mobilise radical nationalist militants, including neo-Nazis, as a counterweight to an emerging anti-Putin coalition of democrats and leftist radicals.

       Moving Together, a pro-Putin youth organisation notorious for its campaign against postmodernist literature, made the first move by reaching out to OB88, the most powerful skinhead gang in Russia.

       In contrast have a look at the results of the last Ukrainian election where the far right gained around 2% of the vote.

       And, for goodness sake, Zelensky is a Jew.
       • Tony 1.3.2.1

         26 January 2023 at 2:29 pm

         Zelensky is a coke head clown puppet, so what if he is also a jew. or is that meant to carry some weight?
         • Shanreagh 1.3.2.1.1

           26 January 2023 at 2:51 pm

           Mmmmmm. you've got a source for the first of yr descriptors or it is just rant & rave designed to demean someone in the eyes of the public.

           I'm picking the latter
           • Tony 1.3.2.1.1.1

             26 January 2023 at 4:00 pm

             The snorter ..

             https://www.bitchute.com/video/obVgksibBbsa/
             • UncookedSelachimorpha …

               26 January 2023 at 4:33 pm

               Bitchute link! My god.
             • Shanreagh …

               26 January 2023 at 5:41 pm

               Tony as you can see we don't really rate Bitchute.

               Here is a link to the entry in Media bias fact check

               https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/

               Summary

               • Overall, we rate BitChute extreme right and Questionable based on the promotion of conspiracy theories, propaganda, hate speech, poor sourcing, fake news, and a lack of transparency. This source is not credible for accurate information and may be offensive to some (most).

               This is the link to the full report. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/bitchute/

               Perhaps check your sources for credibility before linking or publishing from them when you come back.
             • Anne …

               26 January 2023 at 6:45 pm

               OMG is "Tony" for real?

               1) Its not Zelensky.

               2) He doesn't wear suits… ever! As far as I can tell.

               Is ‘Tony’ one of the crowd who think the moon is made of cheese?
               • Stuart Munro …

                 26 January 2023 at 9:16 pm

                 Zelensky has worn suits, but while the war continues he wears fatigues – showing he is in the fight I presume.
                 • tWiggle …

                   26 January 2023 at 11:03 pm

                   Like Churchill and his boiler-suits.
         • tsmithfield 1.3.2.1.2

           26 January 2023 at 3:10 pm

           No-one will take much notice of you if you can't enter into sensible discussion and back up what you say with evidence. Just saying something doesn't make it true no matter how often or obnoxiously you say it.
       • Tony 1.3.2.2

         26 January 2023 at 4:05 pm

         Jews who fought for Nazi Germany ..

         https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1996-12-24-mn-12209-story.html
       • Tony 1.3.2.3

         26 January 2023 at 4:16 pm

         Hey TS, you say the Nazis only got 2% of the Ukrainian vote, that's 800,000 people which is no small number..
         • Incognito 1.3.2.3.1

           26 January 2023 at 4:33 pm

           315,568 votes or 2.15%

           https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election
       • tWiggle 1.3.2.4

         26 January 2023 at 9:34 pm

         In WW2 Ukraine collaborator militia willingly massacred many Jews horribly during German occupation, which would have been taught to children under Russian rule postwar. More recently, an ultranationalist movement ran paramilitary militia in the Donbras conflict between Ukraine and Russian-funded separatists, and attracted allegations of rape and torture
         • tWiggle 1.3.2.4.1

           26 January 2023 at 10:22 pm

           Sorry, pressed publish far too soon.

           …allegations of rape and torture from Amnesty and the UN.

           The ultranationalists, by a violent terror campaign, stymied Ukraine government efforts to implement the internationally-supported Minsk accord, which aimed to reduce the Donbas conflict. One of the accord conditions was to retain Russian as an official language. They also had a couple of top members in high positions in the government.

           The ultranationalists were also white supremicists with a penchant for Nazi memes, and they spread their ideas online. Our very own mosque shooter was a fan, and even went to visit.

           In 2019, Ukranians voted in a Jew from the Russian-speaking east, standing on an anti-corruption platform as President, and the ultranationalists got very few votes in the legislature. Therefore, the vast majority of Ukrainians pre-invasion did not support the ultranationalists.

           The ultranationalist paramilitary were rolled up at some stage into the general Ukraine army and overt Nazi ideas were discouraged. Zelenskyy knew that any hint of Nazism would sink Western support, specifically from Germany.

           Ukraine has been open to outside observation of their army's behaviour, and prosecuted its own soldiers when they acted badly. Western support and the support of their own civilian poulation is critical, so no point in atrocities. To be fair, the Azov Battalion, the flagship ultranationalist paramilitary unit in 2016, has fought in the worse areas, and suffered heavy losses.

           So 'Ukraine is a Nazi state' is not true.
     • Scud 1.3.3

       26 January 2023 at 3:32 pm

       You don't need, bucket loads of Airpower, the Ukrainian's just need to obtain Air Parity of a number of Sectors like they did in the Autumn Offensive using a mixture fixed, Rotary & UAV aircraft.

       Then throw in GBAD (Ground Base Air Defence), EW, SF Strategic OPs on top of your usual SEAD Ops & Ground Base Recc'e Ops.

       There is more than 90% chance of the next Ukrainian Offensive being a success again depending on where they hit the Russians again.

       The Head of the Ukrainian's Theatre Reserve Forces is a former Senior Officer of the Russia Armoured Corp & he is also the head of the Ukrainian Armoured Corp. He is no mug to Armoured Warfare, also was the lead planner & Commander of the Autumn Offensive.
       • Stuart Munro 1.3.3.1

         26 January 2023 at 9:21 pm

         If the Yanks get really annoyed they'll lend Zelensky a Spirit with a full bomb load. The Russians wouldn't like it – but they wouldn't be able to see it – making complaining about it difficult.
         • Scud 1.3.3.1.1

           27 January 2023 at 12:29 am

           It just won't be the Spirit Russia need to worry about if Poot's does the Full Monty!

           I think just about anything that Fly's in NATO will be Launched at Russia & Belarus. And what's left of his Navy would be sunk.

           Then there is Poles & the Baltic States who would like nothing, but seek revenge on the Russians no matter how dice roll.
           • Stuart Munro 1.3.3.1.1.1

             30 January 2023 at 10:05 am

             The Spirit is a curious beast – very low radar profile. Chances are Russian radar systems can't identify it, much less target it, and its bomb load is huge, about 18 tonnes – enough to one-shot the Kerch Bridge for example.

             One flyby by something Russia can't see ought to be fairly deniable – and the faster the war wraps up the better.
   • Francesca 1.4

     26 January 2023 at 3:03 pm

     Abrams tanks in winter

     lol
     • tsmithfield 1.4.1

       26 January 2023 at 3:11 pm

       Don't worry. I think it is more likely they will arrive in the summer. So, not likely to be a problem.
       • Tony 1.4.1.1

         26 January 2023 at 4:27 pm

         Summer arrival of about 105 tanks, remind me how many tanks Russia has? the pesky Ruskies ain't going to sit around waiting for them, come Summer it will be over or we will be in WW111 and guess what, Russia will win that war because the idiot west is draining their armaments into the corrupt Ukraine where already weapons are turning up in other Countries ..

         https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html
         • tsmithfield 1.4.1.1.1

           26 January 2023 at 4:53 pm

           How many Soviet era tanks do you think the Ukrainians have? Didn't you see how much they captured in the Kharkiv offensive? It looks like the Russians have donated more weapons to Ukraine than anyone else.

           And the Javelins have done a fantastic job in wiping out most of Russias more advanced tanks, so now they tend to use a lot of old T62s and T72s which aren’t exactly great against more modern technology.

           And what difference have those few HIMARS made? Totally stuffed up the Russian logistics because they have had to move a lot of their storage out of range, which complicates things for them a lot.

           What Ukraine will likely do is focus those Western tanks on a specific point where they can create a breakthrough. The western tanks are much better than the Soviet equivalents. That, and a squad of Bradleys and Strykers focused on a weak point will prove a huge problem for the Russians.

           The combined GDP of the west is multitudes bigger than Russia. So the west can afford to keep this going a lot longer than Russia can.
       • Tony 1.4.1.2

         26 January 2023 at 4:31 pm

         weapons meant for ukraine end up …..

         https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/short_news/weapons-sent-to-ukraine-may-have-ended-up-in-finnish-underground/
     • Scud 1.4.2

       26 January 2023 at 3:18 pm

       That was a load of Bollocks, the Muppets still had road pads on the tracks & thence they couldn't climb the hill without a decent run up nor negotiate the corner safety!

       Shit, if I did that in the old M113 APC as a driver! I would be wearing a size 9 to my Kidneys but an imprint of a .50cal or Gollock on my helmet & Scorpion Driver would've probably been Charged or had his daylights punch out of him!!!
     • Sanctuary 1.4.3

       26 January 2023 at 4:17 pm

       lol at the pro-Putin copium. You just keep believing that.

       Just like HIMARS would make no difference, western artillery like the Pz2000 would make no difference, NLAW would make no difference, so western tanks will obviously make no difference. Why, they can't even get up an icy slope! Silly western tank!

       Honestly if western gear is so awful, surely then it would make no difference if the west gave the Ukrainians ATACMS, F-16s and JDAMS?

       The M1 tank isn't a Wunderwaffe, it is just a tank. But it is way better tank than those 1950s and 1960s designed tincans the Ruskies are driving around in and it is a lot more mobile than your wishful thinking hopes.
2. Mike the Lefty 2

   26 January 2023 at 9:02 am

   It's a weird irony that while humans pump out billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every day there is a shortage of the stuff for the brewing industry.

   If only…..
   • tsmithfield 2.1

     26 January 2023 at 9:42 am

     Part of what we do is supply equipment for extracting Nitrogen from the atmosphere. Nitrogen is easy because it is by far the largest proportion of gas in the atmosphere.

     Although C02 is a greenhouse gas, in proportionate terms, it is a very small proportion of the atmosphere, which makes it much more difficult to extract economically.
     • Mike the Lefty 2.1.1

       26 January 2023 at 9:52 am

       I was just thinking I wish George Carlin was still with us, I bet he would have made a joke with this.
   • Maurice 2.2

     26 January 2023 at 10:04 am

     Get used to flat beer as the amount of CO2 released in to the atmosphere by beery burps and fizzy farts must be enormous. Surely that is another human source of the dread gas that can be stopped entering the atmosphere …… How humans are prevented from breathing it out is a bit more problematic!
   • Jimmy 2.3

     26 January 2023 at 11:10 am

     The shortage of eggs and the many Countdown supermarkets with empty egg shelves I can live with, but if they run out of beer that's serious!
     • roblogic 2.3.1

       26 January 2023 at 3:25 pm

       Not me. I like 2 eggs a day, but only 2 beers a week.
3. Jimmy 3

   26 January 2023 at 9:28 am

   This is not a good start to the year. I think media Works were also laying off staff.

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/fears-grow-the-warehouse-group-may-axe-190-jobs.html
   • Sabine 3.1

     26 January 2023 at 9:30 am

     What did Adrian Orr say? We need about 70.000 people unemployed in order to get inflation under control? Well i guess they have to start somewhere on that number.
     • alwyn 3.1.1

       26 January 2023 at 11:06 am

       When did he say that Sabine? I'm not aware of any time at which he was so specific and the closest I am aware of is ""Returning to low inflation will, in the near-term, constrain employment growth and lead to a rise in unemployment,".

       What is your evidence for the 70,000 figure?

       https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/adrian-orr-beating-inflation-will-mean-higher-unemployment/WO3WLQQUGWEC5NVK3AQTR2BN5A/
       • dvT 3.1.1.1

         26 January 2023 at 12:26 pm

         https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/12/economist-proposes-alternative-solution-to-inflation-as-up-to-70-000-people-forecast-to-lose-jobs.html

         Economist proposes alternative solution to inflation as up to 70,000 people forecast to lose jobs
         • alwyn 3.1.1.1.1

           26 January 2023 at 2:12 pm

           I cannot see anything in that story of Orr saying that we need 70,000 people to become unemployed. That is the claim I was asking Sabine to justify.

           That story has a claim that if unemployment went from X to Y it would mean something like that but it doesn't have Orr saying he wants it.
           • dvT 3.1.1.1.1.1

             26 January 2023 at 2:16 pm

             Is orr in the reserve bank?

             Doesnt the reserve bank have a say.
     • Graeme 3.1.2

       26 January 2023 at 12:16 pm

       I think Warehouse Group's problems go back before interest rates started rising where they were coming out the wrong side of intense competition in all their categories. Big box retail hasn't been a happy place for a couple of years with too many players and companies are having to cut back.
4. logie97 4

   26 January 2023 at 9:28 am

   From RNZ this morning – Hipkins meeting the Auckland Chamber of Commerce

   It's music to the ears of former political rival Simon Bridges, now Auckland Business Chamber CEO, who said it'll give business "some confidence", and that Hipkins was "off to a good start". "I think it's incredibly refreshing to see from a new PM that he gets it."

   Hidden barbs there from one of the several former National leaders who Jacinda Ardern saw off … and remind me – just what is Bridges background in commerce given that the right's commentariat go on about Labour and the running of businesses?
   • Mike the Lefty 4.1

     26 January 2023 at 10:01 am

     National might just be a tad nervous in case Hipkins and the Auckland C of C actually find some common ground which will make National's whinging less relevant.
   • Incognito 4.2

     26 January 2023 at 1:05 pm

     Where did your quote come from? Where is your link?
     • logie97 4.2.1

       26 January 2023 at 1:33 pm

       I subscribe to the RNZ daily newsletter. I have tried to provide the link but apparently my browser does not support "paste" So here is the whole article

       Mōrena,
       Chris Hipkins’ first big meetings as prime minister are a series of charm offensives with Auckland businesses, seeking to understand what their priorities and issues are.

       “I’ll be there to ask questions of them and to listen to them, in order to accelerate the important relationship that’s needed between business and government, in order to benefit all New Zealanders and to continue to grow our economy,” he said.

       It’s music to the ears of former political rival Simon Bridges, now Auckland Business Chamber CEO, who said it’ll give business “some confidence”, and that Hipkins was “off to a good start”.

       “I think it’s incredibly refreshing to see from a new PM that he gets it.”

       Hipkins brushed off criticism his first meetings were with business leaders, and not Labour’s traditional supporters like unions, saying he’ll have meetings “with a large cross-section of people over the coming weeks and months”.

       Even the Greens cut ‘Chippy’ some slack, co-leader Marama Davidson saying it was perhaps “an area where he particularly feels he’s neglected”.

       So what do businesses actually want? RNZ spoke to some to find out.
       • Incognito 4.2.1.1

         26 January 2023 at 3:51 pm

         Ta

         I think it relates to this: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/483111/chris-hipkins-to-sit-down-with-business-leaders-there-to-ask-questions.
5. Blade 5

   26 January 2023 at 9:48 am

   I think we can all be happy that Bridges is out of the picture. In hindsight he was much better politically than either Labour or National Party supporters gave him credit for.

   [We are not mind readers here and you must explain what you are talking about with a link, if necessary. Lift your game if you want to make it to Election Day on this site – Incognito]
   • Incognito 5.1

     26 January 2023 at 12:53 pm

     Mod note
6. Visubversa 6

   26 January 2023 at 9:55 am

   With "Pride" coming up next month – we hope it is more civilised than this. It will be interesting to see if we are allowed to have any same sex events at all.

   
7. Chris 7

   26 January 2023 at 10:29 am

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/114832273/jim-hubbard-cartoons

   Spot on analysis.
8. UncookedSelachimorpha 8

   26 January 2023 at 11:14 am

   Useless National, lying that raising the minimum wage will drive inflation. They make no complaints about the effect of outsized company profits doing the same (NZ company profits on track to jump 60% over 2 years). 60% increase in the minimum wage, anyone?

   Plenty of evidence that raising minimum wages has little or no effect on inflation. And during high inflation it is even more important to maintain wages, especially at the bottom end of town.
   • Patricia Bremner 8.1

     26 January 2023 at 12:00 pm

     Yes UncookedSelachimorpha, The "cheek" of Willis to infer wages have and will add to inflation, when wages are last to move in any cycle.

     Businesses do three things which create stress.

     Bank Businesses tighten their loan strategies and raise rates. They are part of the Fire Economy.

     Larger Business shed costs through staff redundancies, and close less productive branches to online strategies or automation.

     Small Businesses, which have less fat and usually home loans in the game, have none of these options and are often the target of the local disaffected criminal attacks and thefts, which become a weapon to politically target the Government.

     This is world wide and made much worse by Russia's invasion of Ukraine causing spikes in oil and grain costs.

     The new PM going on a "listening " tour of Auckland Small Business/ Chamber of Commerce RT is a smart move imo. He can take that info back to Cabinet to justify the changes in priorities to help mitigate inflation and the impacts of it. He has shown smarts.
     • UncookedSelachimorpha 8.1.1

       26 January 2023 at 12:07 pm

       Good point about the differences between small businesses and large corporates.

       So often National and their wealthy friends defend the interests of large corporates with their megaprofits, by pointing to the interests of struggling small businesses, pretending it’s all the same thing.

       In fact small business would probably also benefit if the megaprofits of large corporates were redirected to benefit wider society more.
9. roblogic 9

   26 January 2023 at 11:58 am

   Greedy duopoly in NZ takes the piss. Kiwis cannot afford to eat properly in our land of plenty. Chippy needs to start kicking arse and taking names. Regulate the duopolists, fine them, imprison them, nationalise the supermarkets, I don’t know, just do something to stop them ripping us all off.

   https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/131067124/new-zealand-student-on-exchange-in-ireland-shocked-by-insane-food-price-difference
   • PsyclingLeft.Always 9.1

     26 January 2023 at 1:16 pm

     Aye. The duopolists with their cutesy, feelgood, promotional ads. FAKE as fuck. Just ripoff gougers. Labour could get major votes by doing something . Action time !
   • tWiggle 9.2

     26 January 2023 at 11:29 pm

     Ireland is in the EU, which subsidises food production and facilitates food transport across Europe, bringing down costs. Mainland UK has suffered shocking food inflation since Brexit strangled easy goods exchange with Europe.
     • roblogic 9.2.1

       27 January 2023 at 12:44 am

       Ireland has recently introduced the EU Unfair Trading Practices (UTP) regulations to its food and agriculture supply chain.

       I suspect our market would benefit from this kind of oversight
10. joe90 10

    26 January 2023 at 12:14 pm

    Andrew Tate a serial fantasist?

    I'm shocked!

    https://twitter.com/paulkenyonTV/status/1617582023895355394
11. adam 11

    26 January 2023 at 12:16 pm

    Tick Tock

    Tick Tock

    Boom

    So 90 seconds to Midnight – warmongers be stupid, climate deniers be dumb and anti-vaxxers have taken the cake.
12. Adrian 12

    26 January 2023 at 12:43 pm

    Ive gotten this secondhand and cant find it online but did Nicola Marie Antionette Willis say on NatRad to paraphrase something like this that "its Labours fault for increasing the minimum wage too much and now they cant give the poorer people any more help to afford the costs of inflation without causing more inflation ".

    If true, she really is an idiot, is she Sunaking or Kwarztening ?
    • UncookedSelachimorpha 12.1

      26 January 2023 at 1:05 pm

      Yep, she is that much of a moron. Whether or not the minimum wage had been raised in the past – a 5% increase now is still a 5% increase now in terms of inflation effects. And also evil, to be pointing the finger at the vulnerable, saying they are responsible for managing inflation.

      National says it's a "great shame" Labour has increased the minimum wage by so much, because it means they can't do it now to help low-income Kiwis make ends meet without stoking inflation.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/483135/minimum-wage-too-high-to-increase-further-without-fuelling-inflation-national-s-nicola-willis
      • PsyclingLeft.Always 12.1.1

        26 January 2023 at 1:09 pm

        Ahuh…just another version of Victim Blaming. And as usually..done by rightwing/authoritarians…

        We must stop the Nacts….in their tracks
    • Tony Veitch 12.2

      26 January 2023 at 4:50 pm

      We have been warned!
13. joe90 13

    26 January 2023 at 1:00 pm

    Brilliant.

    Pararēkau Island in the Manukau Harbour, just off the coast of Karaka, is the site of a proposed exclusive gated community, but preferred builder, Landmark Homes, is not doing the project any favours.

    On Thursday morning, a link to the development on the company’s website was featuring what appears to be a parody video with new narration over the original footage.

    “Just imagine, a rare opportunity waits you, to own the property of a lifetime,” the voiceover says. “Once covered in native forests where sunlight filtered through the lush foliage, and birds and insects thrived, we’ve done it again, bulldozed the entire f—— lot to make way for a limited number of sections that only the rich and privileged can afford.”

    And there’s more: “Bordered by 16 acres of nature reserve, we justify our destruction. Secure your waterfront section now, even though beaches should be available to everyone. Knowing all of this, breathe in the fresh salty air and drink a glass of red wine.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/latest/131069086/group-builders-website-links-to-parody-video-by-mistake
14. Shanreagh 14

    26 January 2023 at 2:29 pm

    This is an interesting study of the linguistic differences of the leaders in two countries the early pandemic times. One country was NZ and the other was the US.

    Abstracting from the Abstract

    ……

    'By way of background and in order to contextualise the research, we compared and contrasted Trump’s and Ardern’s leaderships using the toxic triangle framework of destructive leadership. We then focused on the leader behaviour element of the triangle by using computerised text analysis (CTA) to analyse Trump’s and Ardern’s public pronouncements during the critical early stages of the pandemic. Based on a similarity index (S), we identified linguistic markers associated with destructive leader behaviours and negative outcomes (Trump) and non-destructive leader behaviours and positive outcomes (Ardern)'

    https://www.scienceopen.com/document_file/3a12d09f-6791-4e0a-a820-2577b2fe4885/PubMedCentral/3a12d09f-6791-4e0a-a820-2577b2fe4885.pdf

    There is interesting material on the toxix trianagle, computerised text analysis

    'Based on the LIWC manual’s description of these variables, Ardern’s language indicates formal, logical and hierarchical thinking patterns delivered in a personal, humble and vulnerable way. On the other hand, Trump’s words indicate thinking patterns that are less formal and logical, delivered in a less personal way lacking in humility and vulnerability and with a higher overall positive emotional tone. Trump’s speech is also marked by a lack of humility, formality and logic. Conversely, Ardern’s speech was marked by authenticity, formality, logic and a lower overall emotional tone (see Figure 2)'

    The takeaway for me is to wonder how we can use the knowledge about this toxic way of speaking by 'innoculating' listeners away from being taken in by it. People were taken in by Trump and some saw Ardern's speech as too personal, calm, measured and some times too self effacing (pers.comm with Shanreagh) (I guess the type that are used to the in your face, booming speech of types like Trump.

    And for all those who poo-pooed the comms degre that the foremer PM JA had the results of following good comms ethics/protocols are clear. Even though for Labour Pty press releases as a whole may have been pitched at too high an age group, as I have said many times before.

    So much good stuff
    ‘This finding indicates that Ardern explained her government’s response to the pandemic in
    terms of reasoning and causation and with greater certainty and less tentativeness than Trump;’ p10
15. Shanreagh 15

    26 January 2023 at 2:44 pm

    The conclusion

    'Scholars have long-warned of the perils associated with destructive leadership. Preventing or intervening in destructive leadership constitutes a major priority and challenge in politics, public administration and business in order to deal effectively with future crises that are knowable (such as new pandemics, climate or a political crisis) as well as those that are unknowable (but for which a potentially destructive leader may be unsuited). Failure to learn from crises has allowed the negative consequences of destructive leadership in the pandemic to spill-over and entangle individuals, institutions, firms, industries and entire economies and societies with grave repercussions nationally and internationally at an immense economic and human cost. The identification and analysis of linguistic markers as a basis for intervention or prevention could be an objective, simple and scalable tool that might help mitigate against the occurrence of such crises in the future'

    Perhaps after a while our PM's speeches could be run through these linguistic markers to detect good or bad patterns. We could do the same for Luxon's. This is not manipulating but best practice in getting the message across.
    • Sanctuary 15.1

      26 January 2023 at 3:59 pm

      It has occurred to me that all of all the pundits and MSM political talking heads and journalists who have offered opinions on the Ardern era, not one has acknowledged the fact that due to her actions 10-15,000 New Zealanders are alive today (and many who have died had many more months of life than they otherwise would have) than if we'd just gone with an open border, "business led" response.

      The fact that the right wing media has spent so much time frantically re-writing the covid response to the point that this sort of deliberate amnesia is possible is a damning indictment of the MSM, and of the values and ethics of those in it.
      • Anne 15.1.1

        26 January 2023 at 5:01 pm

        … all the pundits and MSM political talking heads and journalists who have offered opinions on the Ardern era, not one has acknowledged the fact that due to her actions 10-15,000 New Zealanders are alive today…

        And that is probably a conservative number too.

        Hipkins should highlight this example of deliberate MSM failure whenever he gets the opportunity.

        Who cares if they are pissed off and turn against him. Once the voters get the inherent message loud and clear, it will be the media culprits who will be the losers.
16. RP Mcmurphy 16

    26 January 2023 at 8:58 pm

    time to start making jenna linch and jessica muclh stafrt earning their pay. night after night they get up on their soapbox and deride the govdetnment and no one ever takes them to task. now when there is good news and they dont report it then take them to task on fb and twitter.they are getting away with blue murder and have to be brought to heel..who do they think they are. this page i snot social media and no one ever reads it except would be policy wonks who want a job in the labour party research unit. time for people to get stuck in to the real forces of reaction and stop the airy fairy waffling

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