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Open mike 26/09/2020

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, September 26th, 2020 - 86 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:

Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

86 comments on “Open mike 26/09/2020 ”

  1. ScottGN 1

    One week until advance voting starts. Let’s get this over with!

    • swordfish 1.1

      .
      Labour 2017 Campaign Slogan: Let's Do This

      Labour 2020 Campaign Slogan: For Chrissakes, Let's Get This Over With !

      • Kay 1.1.1

        @swordfishyesyesyes

      • ScottGN 1.1.2

        Yes! It feels quite good though for once to be a Labour voter and not worrying too much about how the election is going to turn out.

      • Austringer 1.1.3

        Well last month WE WHERE, in the pound seat, without any other of our past side kicks, yet a few weeks in Politics is a life time as opposed to a week in politics. So one side kick is looking back in the hoos again, as for the other one, crystal ball and history should be not forgotten.

    • Treetop 1.2

      The election cannot come soon enough for me. It is a distraction when it comes to what the main focus needs to be from the government, preventing community transmission of Covid – 19.

      It is good to see that Melbourne is having the right result after the long lockdown and restrictions.

  2. Ad 2

    Anyone else booked a 100-person party for October 7th?

  3. Andre 3

    Public Service Announcement for all the Tucker Carlson fanbois: Fox's official position is that Carlson just sez shit that nobody reasonable could ever be expected to take seriously. Which a federal judge agrees with, that anybody with functioning cognition would immediately recognise that any mouth-noises Carlson makes should be treated very skeptically.

    https://www.salon.com/2020/09/25/federal-judge-rules-that-fox-news-host-tucker-carlsons-viewers-dont-expect-him-to-tell-facts_partner/

  4. PsyclingLeft.Always 4

    "WorkSafe inspectors will enter notorious Christian community Gloriavale early next week after reports of 23-hour work shifts for members and threats by church leaders."

    https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/west-coast/worksafe-inspectors-enter-gloriavale

    About time !

  5. gsays 5

    I found this a worthwhile 1/4 of an hour. Especially the final 4 minutes.

    tldw, it covers othering, the importance of listening, the ego being the hardest thing to overcome, media and group think, not expecting to be offended.

  6. Andre 6

    RBG's replacement has been nominated! You'll never guess who it is!

    • joe90 6.1

      They're working on it.

      Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a top contender on President Donald Trump’s short list for the Supreme Court, has drawn widespread media attention for her reported membership in People of Praise, a largely Catholic, charismatic religious group.

      Another shortlister, Judge Barbara Lagoa, is a longtime member of the Federalist Society, a conservative legal group. Her husband, Paul Huck, is an attorney at Jones Day, a law firm with close ties to the White House and throughout the Trump administration.

      Those details — readily found in numerous news stories about the potential SCOTUS nominees — could become illegal for media outlets or anyone else to publish on the internet under a proposal federal judges sent to Congress earlier this month. Under the suggested legislation, lawmakers would grant judges extraordinary latitude to decide what personal information to exclude from the public eye.

      […]

      The letter sent to House and Senate Judiciary Committee leaders did not contain specific legislative language, but did offer a non-exclusive laundry list of information judges want authority to suppress. It includes judges’ home addresses, dates of birth, Social Security numbers, driver’s license numbers, bank account details, home and mobile phone numbers and vehicle registrations.

      However, the list also covers details on judges’ “investment property,” any “family member’s employer,” and “religious, organization, club, or association memberships.”

      https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/24/judges-disclosure-personal-detailscrime-420894

    • Incognito 7.1

      The gaslighting goes hand-in-hand with the eroding and undermining of trust in and respect for authority and experts. The pandemic fear has accelerated this process of polarising people in strongly believing, trusting and relying on authority and (science) experts, on the one hand, and people disbelieving, rebelling against and outright rejecting these, on the other hand. The people who have not succumbed yet to either polar opposite tend to have fallen off the fence in utter dizzying bewilderment and paralysing confusion. However, there are many who opt to disengage and run a mile for the hills away from the fence never to return to the fray. None of this bodes well for the future. Only if we work together do we stand a chance. Suffice to say, society is becoming more fragmented and sectarian by the day.

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 7.1.1

        Science by its very definition :

        "Science (from the Latin word scientia, meaning "knowledge")[1] is a systematic enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe"

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science

        Is based on Knowledge. The gaining of which, Peer Reviewed by Scientists, is always head and shoulders above any other.

        Anthropogenic Global Warming

        When Trump is able to appoint deniers into NOAA, The EPA etc, its a very disturbing trend.

        Especially when the people in question are known to be closely associated with Climate Denier thinktanks.

        More attention and Scientific Push Back needs to be given. Not less….

        https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans

        • Incognito 7.1.1.1

          Two things.

          Distrusting and disrespecting science experts (scientists) is not the same as distrusting and disrespecting science as a process albeit a human-driven one (a human concept).

          The nature of (scientific) knowledge is nebulous to many and especially to lay-people. Similarly, (model) predictions can be imprecise, inaccurate, or ‘wrong’, but with complex systems they are probabilistic in any case. Even ‘simple’ systems have probabilistic states or outcomes because when they are based on a stochastic process. Think of flicking a coin, if you pick ‘wrong’ it is because you have only a 50% chance of picking it ‘right’. Many people struggle with the indeterminate nature of (model) predictions and they want/expect simple binary (absolute!) answers, e.g. the weather forecast: will it rain or not and don’t tell me that there is a moderate chance of showers in the afternoon clearing in the evening.

  7. Dennis Frank 8

    Unholy ghost taking National on death spiral into black hole: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/122892803/election-2020-national-goes-hunting-for-votes-on-the-right-while-labour-plays-it-safe

    National has not given up the ghost, it is clear that its aim for the next couple of weeks is to prevent the party going into what its own MPs call the “death spiral”: where potential centre-right voters know National won’t be in government and peel off to other alternatives, defenestrating the party and making the rebuild task much harder.

    What is also clear, however, is that Collins was not then, nor now, targeting swing voters in the political centre to come over to National. That’s the party’s only chance of winning but the numbers are so low that that is not even being tried at the moment.

    The ghost seems to be the Nat tactical advisor: "Okay, we sail in towards the black hole at the correct trajectory to pull out in a week's time. That'll get all the neocon votes back in behind, then we can clear the event horizon via powering full throttle out."

    "A week is a long time in politics, everyone knows, so voters will have forgotten our lunge to the right by then as we head back into the mainstream to scoop up sheeple spellbound by Ardern's charisma. No problem." Ghostwriters know how formula thinking works: just gotta out-bland the competitor. Sheeple love bland.

    The gospel according to Luke:

    Regardless of how National spins it, the minimum respectable result for the party is 35 per cent… No-one in National is any longer talking about a ‘’path to victory’’. It's now about damage control and MPs with even healthy majorities are hunkering down in their electorates, making sure they hold their seats.

    • Heather Grimwood 9.1

      to bwaghorn at 9 ; astoundingly unbelievable…a huge affront to women from a reactionary judge . I grieve.

      [Removed text from user name]

    • RedBaronCV 9.2

      I was pretty appalled by that too. At the lower income brown end of town he would have gone down I suspect. And there is nothing like a conviction and jail sentence to ruin one's job prospects. There is also the issue that diversion did not seem to have been part of the picture.

      I asked myself – if he had gone up to a stranger at the pedestrian crossing down town and behaved as he did including breaking someone's nose would they have been so keen to discharge him without conviction. Likely no – so why was the assault minimised because it was at home?

      I might also had some belief that he had dealt with his issues if he had said some thing like " the divorce has been settled on the generous terms by consent without argument from me and the financial outcomes and lifestyle for her and the children going ahead has been preserved to the best of my ability – I have been to every course available and understand my behaviour better that I understand why she wishes nothing moore to do with me yadda yadda".

    • Draco T Bastard 9.3

      Judge Field said Cleaver’s ex-wife had suffered enormous emotional distress and the punch had a profound effect on her, physically and mentally.

      He said the punch had been in the heat of the moment.

      Judge Field gave Cleaver credit for his previous good behaviour, noting he had done work for charity organisations.

      His previous good behaviour seems to include abusing his wife.

      Cleaver’s ex-wife was lying on a bed and crying when Cleaver came into the room and told her to “shut up”.

      Cleaver then put one of his hands over her mouth and the other on her neck and threatened to punch her if she didn’t stop crying.

      That is not spur of the moment – that looks like an ongoing pattern.

  8. joe90 10

    Under Culture.

    https://thefederalist.com/category/culture/

  9. RedLogix 11

    Joe Hildebrand writes well and with a reliable compass. His assessment of the ALP's position and Albo's prospects of becoming PM resonates with me:

    Labor also still needs to prove it is a stable and responsible party of alternative government, and it is equally hard to imagine that knifing yet another first term leader would reassure the electorate of that.

    This brings us to perhaps the most critical problem that Labor is facing, namely the viciousness and toxicity of its self-proclaimed supporters on the extreme left.

    Most of these are unreconstructed baby-boomers who never came home from Woodstock and the usual student socialists who are yet to know better. The only difference between now and 1990 is that social media both spreads their idiocy and artificially amplifies their influence – a paradox we can only hope will be met with a reckoning.

    • AB 11.1

      If Australia is anything like NZ, the genuine "extreme left" could likely be gathered together in their entirety without violating social distancing rules. The "extreme left" in the mind of Hildebrand sound like moderate social democrats.

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 11.1.1

        Indeed. : )

      • RedLogix 11.1.2

        The "extreme left" in the mind of Hildebrand sound like moderate social democrats.

        Umm no. If you read the article it's clear this isn't the case. I identify as a moderate social democrat and I'm clear that Hildebrand reliably speaks my language.

        Basically he's saying that the centre wins elections, as it always has. And that people who insist there are more votes to be had if 'Labour goes left' are deluding themselves with an argument that makes no sense at all.

        Indeed, there are many who say Labor only lost the last election because it was not left-wing enough.

        Allow me to lay out this argument: After a farcical six years in which the Coalition knifed its own prime minister in every single term, and in which Bill Shorten actively vowed to redistribute the wealth of retirees and property investors, an invisible cohort of hard left voters said “Labor’s not socialist enough for me, I’m voting for Scott Morrison.”

        It physically hurts the brain to follow this thought process and yet this is precisely what online activists say over and over again, rarely politely. Indeed, bereft of any rationality they embark upon random campaigns of vitriol and abuse.

  10. Dennis Frank 12

    Update from Bernard Hickey re free-lunch govt financing, debt repayment, quantitative easing: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300116549/heres-a-free-way-to-pay-off-governments-foreign-debt

    New Zealand has been one of the fastest money printers this year and is on track to print up to a third of GDP. The point is no central bank has managed to either reverse their bond buying in any sustained way, or create the inflation they need for more than 20 years.

    The idea that the lunch will be paid for any time soon is barely believable and we should get used to the fact money printing will pay for Government deficits for the foreseeable future. The bigger question is what New Zealand has hoped to achieve once the printing eventually stops, rather than worrying about when it reverses.

    Voters, too stupid to keep up, still believe govt debt must be repaid. Therefore National's campaigning includes the higher-taxes threat – a trad achilles heel for Labour since the Black Budget. In the real world, that logic is no longer valid.

    Government was able to borrow $450 million for a four-year term at minus 0.048 per cent this week. It was also able to borrow $150m for a period of 17 years at 0.908 per cent. The idea is that once the economy is stabilised and generating too much inflation, the Reserve Bank will then go back into the market and sell those bonds back to banks and pension funds to suck cash out of the system and tighten monetary policy.

    The US Federal Reserve started this type of money printing by buying bonds in 2009. It tried to reduce the pace of its buying in a process known as “tapering” after just four years, but sparked financial market mayhem as investors rejected the idea of being weaned off the cheap money.

    The Fed printed US$4.5 trillion between 2009 and 2013, but was only able to offload US$700b back into the market over the following six years. Then it started printing again in September last year at a slow rate, but turbo-charged that in March and now has bought over US$7t worth of bonds.

    The Bank of Japan started printing 20 years ago and now has assets worth 126 per cent of its GDP. It bought back about a third of its holdings from 2012 to 2015, but has since reversed all of that and almost doubled its holdings from 2012 again.

    So quantitative easing has been effective in stabilising the system for more than a decade: it has become orthodoxy.

    The Reserve Bank is also about to start printing money and lending directly to banks at virtually zero per cent interest or even negative rates.

    That will allow banks to use that money to replace $126b of foreign borrowings they currently have. One of the untold good news stories of the Covid-19 crisis is that New Zealanders are importing less and going on holiday less, the big four banks are not repatriating dividends under orders from the Reserve Bank and New Zealand fund managers are saving by buying overseas assets. That has improved our net debt from 84 per cent of GDP a decade ago to 58 per cent now.

    Looks like the RB has got us onto a resilience trajectory. Now we just need politicians able to comprehend this, and pass on the good news to voters. So far, zilch.

    • Draco T Bastard 12.1

      People don't really understand money, how its created nor the simple fact that it has no value in and of itself.

      The RBNZ and politicians haven't seemed to twig to its reality either.

      Which means that we'll still end up with the private banks creating money and charging us interest on it in such a way that it can never be repaid with a resulting ever increasing amount of private debt. Exactly as happened prior to the GFC which quantitative easing was then used to transfer that private debt to the government's books so that the rich could stay rich.

      • Pat 12.1.1

        Confidence

        The problem is the Govs and central banks who 'own' the currency and are concerned with its reputation whereas the private banks are only concerned with profit and reputation be damned.

        But it could be said it is the govs own fault as they are the ones who let the leash get so long they couldnt see what the dog was up to.

  11. Dennis Frank 13

    On his Facebook page, Bryan Gould made these points:

    As a former television professional, I watched last night’s leaders’ debate with particular interest. I was fascinated by how decisions by the studio director and the positioning of the cameras influenced the course of the debate, usually to Ardern’s disadvantage.

    As the opening shots demonstrated, Collins had the advantage of a camera directly in front of her, and to which she could speak full face on. Ardern, by contrast, was being filmed from somewhere out to her right, with result that she was seen largely in profile, speaking to no one in particular, and in wide shots, with Collins a constant presence over her shoulder in the same shot. The consequence was that Collins was on screen most of the time and had ample opportunity to use facial expressions and physical gestures by way of comment on what Ardern was saying and as she was saying it.

    The studio director added to these advantages by making repeated cut-aways to Collins while Ardern was speaking. The overall impression thereby created was that Collins was at the heart of the debate, while Ardern was floating around somewhere on the periphery. Labour will need to address these issues with TVNZ before the next debate.

    http://werewolf.co.nz/2020/09/gordon-campbell-on-nationals-rampant-pandering-to-the-farming-vote/

    Good to know Gould drew the same conclusion I did here last week, likewise from a background of career experience in television. Creating an un-level playing field, tilted to one side, is dirty politics. Does Labour have the political nous to negate the favouritism? I doubt it.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 13.1

      If the favouritism that Gould, you and others observed gives the National party a significant political advantage, then I’d agree that ideally it should be negated in future, but doubt 'Labour' is too worried. I do hope influential lefties are observing and making little lists as these may prove handy in post-election neg(oti)ations.

    • Westykev 13.2

      Come on Dennis, your better than that. Bryan Gould is a politician first, journalist second. He is biased to buggery.

    • Gabby 13.3

      Be interesting to hear from the director on this.

  12. Anker 14
    • Yes I think Ianmac quoted Gould on the Daily review last week. Gordon Campbell wrote about it too.
    • i put in a complaint to the media council, rewording some of what Gould said adding my own impressions.
    • i realise nothing much will come of it, but I believe TVNZ will have to respond and maybe Gould, Gordon Campbell and the complaints they get, might stop them doing it when Jessica Mutch McKay has her turn.
    • either incompetence or deliberate or maybe both.
    • A fail for John Campbell re the whole show as far as I am concerned
    • Dennis Frank 14.1

      Well good on you for doing that. It's true Gould & Campbell are leftists, so bias is a factor with them. Not so for me: I decided in 1971 that the left weren't credible (due to being part of the establishment) and adopted a third alternative political path through the middle between left & right. I'm only supporting Labour on this due to the fairness principle of democracy.

      If the Labour Party doesn't make a formal complaint, collective stupidity may not be their reason. They may agree that the fairness principle of democracy ought to be preached by leftists but not actually practised.

      • Peter 14.1.1

        Sometimes the quietest comments pass without emphasis on the level of nonsense they imply:

        "It's true Gould & Campbell are leftists, so bias is a factor with them."

        Aren't leftists allowed to be biased? Are leftists the only ones who are biased? Gould & Campbell are biased? Big fucken deal.

        • Anne 14.1.1.1

          It always amuses me that commentators who have common sense as their middle name are always classed as 'leftists". Being a supporter of the Labour Party or the Greens does not automatically mean a person is a leftist in the negative sense that Dennis Frank uses the term. In fact, I think they are both mature and highly intelligent commentators whose views are based on factual evidence.

          They run rings around many of the idiot commentators who frequent the tabloids, radio and TV current affairs programmes. I find it interesting that they are not better used by the media. I suspect the media in general feel threatened by their superiority and intelligence. Might show them up.

        • Gabby 14.1.1.2

          And of course rightists are noble, upright and dispassionate fellows.

      • weka 14.1.2

        Are you saying you don't have any bias Dennis?

      • solkta 14.1.3

        Something that is in the middle between the two ends of the establishment is the middle of the establishment.

    • Barfly 14.2

      Please stay away from the 2 pot epoxy resin paints….

    • Anne 14.3
      • A fail for John Campbell re the whole show as far as I am concerned

      If indeed there was a bias towards Judith Collins – and imo there definitely was and it stretched to include better visuals such as lighting and camera angles for Collins – then it is possible John Campbell wasn't in on the act. In which case he would not have known what was happening while the debate was in progress.

  13. Anker 15
    • Hi Anne, my very strong impression was that Campbell interrupted Jacinda more than Judith. I am not sure if Campbell would appreciate the camera angles, but would stand corrected by someone in the know
    • i think overall Judith got an easier ride. No focus on the covid response. For those who say well other issues are more important, I would refute that. NZ continues to drop on the global list of covid cases. The much touted by some, Sweden is now surging again. As are most other countries. It’s tragic

    btw excuse the bullet points. I often have trouble commenting from my I pad, but can do it if I bullet point.

    • Anne 15.1

      Campbell interrupted Jacinda more than Judith.

      He certainly did, but my take on that is he's a bit scared of Judith. Just like Muldoon, she is a formidable and nasty opponent and people are afraid of her biting tongue.

      Not trying to defend Campbell. I don't like his sickly sweet mode of interaction. But I don't think he was part of any predetermined bias towards Collins. In fact I imagine he privately dislikes her.

  14. RedBaronCV 16

    I really don't understand why people make a stance on an aeroplane. Quite apart from anything else I suspect it could be a good while before Airnz allows any boarding onto any plane.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300117475/covid19-police-waiting-for-political-candidate-billy-tk-jr-at-airport-after-refusing-to-wear-mask-properly-during-flight

    • Stuart Munro 16.1

      If they're smart, Air NZ will ban him for a month or two – that stuff he's peddling won't get him much support down south neither – educated folk down there.

    • mac1 16.2

      Why make a stand on an aeroplane? So he can get time on the airwaves. So he can air his views in the media even more. So he can present himself as one who is staunch in his views. So he can claim persecution by the authorities. So he can reinforce within himself the feelings of conspiracy. “I must be right. They are all against me……..”

      • Anne 16.2.1

        Which would hurt him the most? Being banned by Air NZ or being allowed to go on his merry way? Yes, he'd use the ban to gain more publicity, but he would be seriously compromised by not being able to fly around the country hoodwinking stupid people into believing his conspiracy theories.

        Ban the bastard.

        • Stuart Munro 16.2.1.1

          It's a safety issue for the airline, however richly he may deserve an ass-kicking for other reasons. If I insisted on using a cellphone I wouldn't get to fly – masks are no different.

          • Incognito 16.2.1.1.1

            It is more than a safety issue, it is a compliance issue with safety regulations. Imagine something goes horribly wrong during or with the flight and some plonker refuses to follow the crew’s instructions because it doesn’t ‘feel right’ to him, potentially endangering himself, the crew, and other passengers. The core of the safety protocol is to follow the instructions. He or his lawyer can look it up in the Civil Aviation Act and challenge it in Court if he is stupid enough wishes.

        • weka 16.2.1.2

          I hope they ban him, but for the reasons Incog states. Hopefully they'll have some savvy PR person who manages the media release with just the right tone and framing.

  15. Robert Guyton 17

    Tried to post the Billy/facemask/underpants image, but couldn't.

    • weka 17.1

      sounds like we should be relieved.

      • Robert Guyton 17.1.1

        Is there a guide to posting images, weka? Especially images from Facebook.

        • weka 17.1.1.1

          See this post?

          • weka 17.1.1.1.1

            On FB, click on the image. This will open a new URL (the address at the top of the page).

            Then on TS, choose the wee picture of the mountain and the sun, and put the URL in the URL field.

            It's a good idea to also set the width field to 400, because internet images vary hugely in size.

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