With multiple 1-in-100 year events now occurring inside 6 weeks, it's time for Auckland Council to radically alter the budget it is proposing.
Just like central government.
Since the Mayor won't of course since he campaigned on low rates, it is time for all the Green and Labour Councillors to get together to propose their own alternative budget.
They should not be afraid – they need to take a leadership position on the budget, and know that they will be fully in step with Government in doing so.
La Niña is characterized by lower-than-normal air pressure over the western Pacific. These low-pressure zones contribute to increased rainfall. Rainfall associated with the summer monsoon in Southeast Asia tends to be greater than normal, especially in northwest India and Bangladesh.
We're in the third year of a La Nina cycle (the first since 1950 and this time exacerbated by global warming). It's forecast to go go neutral soon and then back to El Nino for next summer.
What we've had is not the new normal, it was an extreme – and will be rare with El Nino (more drought in the north and east of Enzed).
But even La Nina combos (mostly 2 year only) that will happen within each decade when combined with worsening GW is enough to justify planning for resilience. And that and acting on recommendations will require funding – thus budget change. Then the part to be played by council in recovery – also budget impact.
Yes. As long as the El Nino – Neutral – La Nina cycle continues, we will get respites. These respites may be regional – one region gets hit badly in one phase of the cycle and other regions in other phases. Less optimistically, the cycle may give us different types of extremes – floods in La Nina, and heatwaves/fires in El Nino. More gloomily, can we be sure that 3 or more degrees of warming wont mess up this natural cycle in some way?
It is right to assume we are on a generally deteriorating path until some time after net zero emissions are achieved and therefore should plan accordingly. The sooner net zero is achieved, the more likely it is that adaptation can be afforded – though the pessimist in me suspects that it already can't be.
I do believe that long-term weather trends are linked to climate change.
However, in the specific instance of Cyclone Gabrielle, and other recent weather stability in our area, there is an international study looking at whether there is a link between the recent Tongan eruption and Cyclone Gabrielle.
From the article:
NIWA principal atmosphere and climate scientist Olaf Morgenstern said there was no established link between the events, but it is believed the eruption increased the earth’s temperature.
So, no established link between those events at the moment. But, in theory, there might be. Will be interesting to see if that eruption is linked to recent events.
Claiming climate change causes every storm is as bad, storms been storming since for ever, climate change is just the coraline these storms get jacked up on.
AGW intersects with natural events. How would you ever separate them out? Trying to separate them out is rearranging the deck chairs.
The Tongan volcano eruption tells us even more that we should be dropping GHGs as a much as possible. Everything we can do at this point to create more stability matters.
I don't dispute climate linked weather events at all. It makes absolute sense. A boiling kettle puts a lot more water into the atmosphere than a block of ice. And I agree it could be both working together.
But, I think we need to be careful to ensure that we don't ignore other contributing events. Otherwise, we end up in the same camp as climate change deniers who point to every bout of cold weather as evidence that climate change isn't true.
I am in agreement with you pretty much. I think that climate change definitely has a role. But it may have been exacerbated by the volcano. It is difficult to tease the two apart.
Events like volcanic eruptions have been a part of weather forever. But, if that is combined with climate change, then the effects could well be a lot more severe than the would otherwise have been.
But, if the extreme weather we have experienced is due to a combination of both the volcano and climate change, then all the poor sods up north may not have to experience those sorts of extremes every year.
They still likely will get increasingly unstable weather. But, if the mix explaining the recent weather does include the volcano, then it may not be that bad again for quite awhile. So, I think it is worth the research being done to find out.
I guess it strikes to the question of how much local mitigation and adaption will be required going forward.
whereas I think that climate change is here, now, and we're very behind on what we need to do and we just need to get on with it. Equivocating about whether x storm was caused by AGW or a volanco seems like a distraction at a time when we really can't afford it. For instance, if we go, oh maybe it's not going to be so bad after all, do you think that will make people resistant to change more or less likely to change?
For instance, if we go, oh maybe it's not going to be so bad after all, do you think that will make people resistant to change more or less likely to change?
Not so much that. But more to do with whether we need to relocate whole swathes of the population or not.
If the extent of flooding we saw in the NI is only likely to occur in a rare combination of circumstances then we may not need to put as much into mitigation and adaption. But, if this type of flooding is going to be the norm, then we probably need to be much more proactive in relocating communities.
So, getting some understanding on this is quite helpful for planning for the medium term future at least.
No sensible person is "ignoring other contributing events", they're/we're just not being deceived by those who drag red-herrings across the trail every single time there is a harmful weather event.
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption is a possible “contributing factor” to the severity of cyclone Gabrielle's impacts on Aotearoa NZ and its people.
One year later, a preliminary calculation has been done that suggests the eruption increased the earth’s surface by 0.1C.
That’s a very small amount in terms of the overall global warming behind the increase in extreme weather events being experienced in the North Island, he said.
“The idea that New Zealand has been hit this summer by a deluge of rain is entirely consistent with what we expect based on global warming.”
No one can prevent large volcanic eruptions, but I can decrease my carbon footprint. It's really quite simple (not rocket science), if you're genuinely concerned about the consequences of anthropogenic global warming.
How to reduce your carbon footprint – 20 top tips In brief, to reduce your carbon footprint, you’ll want to do things like reduce the amount of energy you use, eat fewer animal products, shop locally, travel smart, and reduce your waste.
What have we learned in the last 4 weeks/years? We can be reallydim bulbs.
National Party Energy spokesman Gerry Brownlee says Kiwi bill payers will be stunned to learn that the Electricity Commission is planning to spend up to $3.5 million in the next year promoting energy efficient light bulbs.
“Labour’s priorities are so warped in these tougher times that Helen Clark plans to spend more than $3 million telling New Zealanders what light bulb to install.”
Cyclone Gabrielle was originally a weak low north of Fiji. It moved westwards into the Coral Sea not too distant from Queensland where conditions were ripe for it to become a Cat.3 tropical cyclone.
The Tongan Islands are a long way from Queensland.
As we have been informed there is a reliable MSM and there is other less trustworthy news sources.
So this must be really embarrasing for RNZ and TVNZ and the staff there.
In 2021, Gunn suggested that an earthquake that hit the central North Island was Mother Nature’s response to then Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s announcement about new vaccination targets, passports, and the traffic light system."
When litigation lawyers cite "act of God" as supporting argument …
There is of course a growing career for the investigative journalist looking at the (origins) sourcing of money behind various "freedom fronts/other supportive narratives".
Yesterday the New Zealand Outdoors & Freedom Party posted about the arrest and said Gunn was “now safe at home, surrounded by good friends” and that the arrest, which the post claims involved a “jumped up Karen” and a “bully cop” came as a “shock”.
It should be interesting to hear Nicola Willis explain the cost of the tax cuts and relate this to the number of workers and wages they are paid (and where they are employed).
There is of course a growing career for the investigative journalist looking at the (origins) sourcing of money behind various "freedom fronts/other supportive narratives
Given that this seems to be an interesting and public good project I am not sure why this has not been supported. It was widely posited that these organisations were obtaining finding from 'shadowy' figures supporting similar groups in the US & Canada.
Even if they listed the NZ based supporters of the parliamentary protest in terms of on the ground support as part of the 'memories' series that Stuff is doing. I would be interested in some investigative reporting into who these firms were, do they still support the aims of the protest etc. I appreciate that some of this material is still live as these supporters continue eg Counterspin media and various other white supremacist groups. Some seem to have morphed into anti climate change groups.
'The protestors were a mixed group, but the majority protested the COVID-19 mask and vaccine mandates in New Zealand, while some identified with far-right politics such as Trumpism, white nationalism and Christian fundamentalism. The protest methods ranged from peaceful to increasingly violent'.
Those who would have a motive would oppose international co-operation on tax havens/regulatory oversight of offshore companies/trusts/international money movement – stateless money/power/influence as well as normal right wing agendas under the banner of useful populist causes "freedom" from government – national and and international regime (GW/environment/labour/migrant labour/offshore ownership and investment).
We've all come across cases where there seems to be two rules applying. Say a business or tax fraud case and a welfare fraud case and the disparate consequences.
There is another, people who have a tertiary debt only pay it back when they they realise employment level of income but those with debt to MSD have to pay it out of their benefit income.
A cautionary tale for owners, and especially potential owners, of homes in low lying areas.
.
But as the couple toured the area, situated on the banks of a sluggish river that feeds into the Chesapeake Bay, they noticed something alarming about the homes they were seeing. “We were looking at one house close to the water, and [our real-estate agent] started talking about flood insurance,” Sara recalled to me. “I said, ‘Really? In this area?’” The houses were about half a mile from the river, but monthly flood-insurance premiums on the homes were $800 to $1,000—almost as much as their mortgage payment.
[…]
This displacement is at once profound and not very visible in the coastal housing market, where buyers and lenders are just beginning to digest the immense consequences of future sea-level rise. The value of all of the coastal real estate in the United States exceeds a trillion dollars, and a large portion of that value may vanish as buyers starts to shy away from homes most vulnerable to erosion and frequent flooding. As home values fall to reflect climate risk, wealthy homeowners and investors will dump their distressed assets and flee, while middle-class homeowners like the Langfords will be left to deal with climate catastrophes and costly mortgages. The resulting turmoil could reshape the Eastern Seaboard, threatening the growth of coastal cities such as Norfolk and potentially triggering a slow migration inland
Gender ideology by stealth. The Census is so desperate to know your gender – they will make it up if necessary.
"It's a problem because Sex Matters.
Women need to be counted and this data collection method is prioritising the needs of one group over the needs of another.
The new data standard is advertised as being necessary for the rainbow community to be visible – but how does it create visibility for women? We are a distinct sex class, not a "social or personal identity".
Over the past few months supporters of Speak Up for Women have been busy emailing Stats NZ seeking clarification on the Gender question and the way that various responses will be recorded. We are concerned because we don’t believe in gender, it’s not that we have no gender, it’s not that we would rather not say, it’s that we don’t believe that anyone has a gender and we object to the question. It’s like being asked whether we prefer blue or pink unicorns and being unable to answer that we don’t believe in unicorns.
We are concerned because Sex Matters. We want to be counted as a sex class."
They could have allowed people to answer 'no gender', but presumably that would interfere with their plans to use gender identity as the default.
For those that aren't aware, Stats NZ have said that if you don't answer the gender question (or answer incorrectly), they will choose a gender for you based on data from elsewhere (including the sex question).
Analysis of non-binary sex responses in the 2021 Census
[27 Septmber 2022]
The most recent 'Standard for Sex, Gender, Variations of Sex Characteristics and Sexual Orientation Variables' documents the ABS’ definitions of sex, gender, variations of sex characteristics and sexual orientation. The Standard describes that the best practice to accurately capture these concepts requires four separate questions. The four questions (sex recorded at birth, gender, variations of sex characteristics and sexual orientation) together lead to a comprehensive understanding of a person’s sex, current gender, if they have variations of sex characteristics and their sexual orientation.
Australian Government Guidelines on the Recognition of Sex and Gender
These legal protections are complemented by the Australian Government Guidelines on the Recognition of Sex and Gender, which commenced in July 2013. The guidelines recognise that individuals may identify as a gender other than the sex they were assigned at birth, or may not identify as exclusively male or female, and that this should be reflected in records held by the government. The guidelines also standardise the evidence required for a person to change their sex/gender in personal records held by Australian Government departments and agencies.
Is nowhere safe from the clutches of 'gender ideology' – maybe move to Canada?
A Question of Gender: Gender classification in international research
[29 June 2022]
Moving away from the more traditional binary question may also result in negative reactions from some research participants who could be less accepting of the additional options or potentially be confused by question wording that they don’t fully understand and thereby disengage from the project. Morgenroth et al. (2020) examine the nature of potential resistance to change in gender management that might be relevant to researchers. We assume that such reactions may differ widely from country to country and in different parts of society. We also note that in the UK those moving in the direction of the “politically correct” are described and often derided as being “Woke” and going too far in terms of change.
…
Whilst our focus is principally on marketing research, we should note that in the wider context some countries do recognise that not all people identify as male or female and provide them with another option for legal documents, such as birth certificates, driving licences, national identity cards and passports. Examples include New Zealand, Denmark, The Netherlands, Iceland, Malta, Argentina, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, US, Canada and Australia. In some countries trans men and trans women are able to change the sex on their birth certificates to reflect their lived identity. For example, the UK Gender Recognition Act has allowed this since 2004. However, there is not yet any legal recognition of other genders or the ability to legally have no gender or an unspecified gender in the UK. Some countries are starting to gather official statistics on how the population defines their gender, but in other countries there is little to no investigation nor changes being considered. Checking these types of official documents may give useful clues to a country’s position on gender.
IN-DEPTH REVIEW OF MEASURING GENDER IDENTITY
Prepared by Canada and the United Kingdom [25 January 2019; PDF] One complicating factor for measuring gender identity is that for some people who are transgender, privacy concerning their transgender status is of paramount importance. The issue of privacy has been influential in how the ONS is considering asking questions related to gender identity.
The mantra of the 20th C was "gender equality", as per suffrage and the equal place in society of women.
And here we are in the 21st C and we have some complaining about gender ideology. Some are Promise Keepers who believe in male leadership (or a form of equal but different) and others who want gender to have no distinctions from birth sex.
For this reason the latter oppose terms such as cisgender because it is an affirmation of the concept that there are those who are not so.
Which explains the politicisation of the census, as it enables some to identify a gender apart from birth sex.
Once people would have complained if people could identify as having a sexuality not heterosexual, or complained that people could identify as having a form of faith seen as blasphemous (say unitarian, universal salvation, deist, gnostic, theosophy, witchcraft, etc).
Some people are free to declare their birth sex and not answer the gender question.
They will be determined to be cisgender. They are not the group being identified, these are those who identify other than their birth sex gender, and what the variants are.
Others are free to identify their gender, but not identify their birth sex. The purpose here how many would do this. It speaks to the issue of allowing people to adopt an official identity at variance with their birth sex gender and or to change their birth identity certificate. Otherwise any significant numbers of those not conforming to birth sex cisgender stereotype, as to information to government.
Unfortunately, you are confusing and conflating sex and gender. Sex is to gender what astronomy is to astrology. You are welcome to believe in astrology – millions do. Astronomy and its sister sciences got us to the moon and puts robots on Mars.
You also use the term "cisgender". This is a term used by gender ideologists to falsely claim that there are two sort of humans – one "cis" and one "trans" and that they are some sort of equal variants. Sex in humans is bi-modal and immutable. To attempt to get around this fact, "gender" was used to attempt to establish an equality between physiological reality and psychological ailments or paraphillia.
If the Census has to have a section on gender – it should be treated like any other ideology.
If the Census has to have a section on gender – it should be treated like any other ideology.
We also have the religious question.
Your opinion about the existence or otherwise of God has no more relevance to that than your opinions on gender.
Unfortunately, you are confusing and conflating sex and gender.
No, I am explaining the census to you.
Whereas you are using the census as part of a campaign to reject transgender women being able to identify as women and to label people as psychologically ill or with a paraphilia. The conservatives opposing homosexual law reform want their arguments back.
Trans gender "women" have to "identify" as women because they are not women. There is nothing physical that separates them from the category of "men" and places them in the category of "women".
They are men with a bodily dysmorphia, men with internalised homophobia, or men with various paraphilia.
And don't you dare wave the Law Reform arguements at me. Gender ideology totally rejects the whole concept of same sex attraction. The very words are called a "transphobic dogwhistle". We are supposed to be same gender attracted these days – not same sex attracted. Lesbians are denied even the right to organise gatherings for lesbians without having to admit any man who opens his mouth and utters the magical incantation "I identify as".
"Transing away the Gay" is the ultimate Gay Conversion Therapy.
I would reply but apparently not even one sentence in my post (that was blocked) cannot be made again – not even by typing out the words afresh here in this box.
Cotton boxers is becoming an issue as more heterosexual women disrespectfully identify as gay men.
(I can't think of a worse impact on well-being than targeting as the sole group for your intimate partners people that have a sexual orientation that excludes you.)
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Good Friday, 18th April, 2025: I can at last unveil the Secret Non-Fiction Project. The first complete Latin-to-English translation of Giovanni Pico della Mirandola’s twelve-book Disputationes adversus astrologiam divinatricem (Disputations Against Divinatory Astrology). Amounting to some 174,000 words, total. Some context is probably in order. Giovanni Pico della Mirandola (1463-1494) ...
National MP Hamish Campbell's pathetic attempt to downplay his deep ties to and involvement in the Two by Twos...a secretive religious sect under FBI and NZ Police investigation for child sexual abuse...isn’t just a misstep; it’s a calculated lie that insults the intelligence of every Kiwi voter.Campbell’s claim of being ...
New Zealand First’s Shane Jones has long styled himself as the “Prince of the Provinces,” a champion of regional development and economic growth. But beneath the bluster lies a troubling pattern of behaviour that reeks of cronyism and corruption, undermining the very democracy he claims to serve. Recent revelations and ...
Give me one reason to stay hereAnd I'll turn right back aroundGive me one reason to stay hereAnd I'll turn right back aroundSaid I don't want to leave you lonelyYou got to make me change my mindSongwriters: Tracy Chapman.Morena, and Happy Easter, whether that means to you. Hot cross buns, ...
New Zealand’s housing crisis is a sad indictment on the failures of right wing neoliberalism, and the National Party, under Chris Luxon’s shaky leadership, is trying to simply ignore it. The numbers don’t lie: Census data from 2023 revealed 112,496 Kiwis were severely housing deprived...couch-surfing, car-sleeping, or roughing it on ...
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with regular and special guests, including: on a global survey of over 3,000 economists and scientists showing a significant divide in views on green growth; and ...
Simeon Brown, the National Party’s poster child for hubris, consistently over-promises and under-delivers. His track record...marked by policy flip-flops and a dismissive attitude toward expert advice, reveals a politician driven by personal ambition rather than evidence. From transport to health, Brown’s focus seems fixed on protecting National's image, not addressing ...
Open access notables Recent intensified riverine CO2 emission across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, Mu et al., Nature Communications:Global warming causes permafrost thawing, transferring large amounts of soil carbon into rivers, which inevitably accelerates riverine CO2 release. However, temporally and spatially explicit variations of riverine CO2 emissions remain unclear, limiting the ...
Once a venomous thorn in New Zealand’s blogosphere, Cathy Odgers, aka Cactus Kate, has slunk into the shadows, her once-sharp quills dulled by the fallout of Dirty Politics.The dishonest attack-blogger, alongside her vile accomplices such as Cameron Slater, were key players in the National Party’s sordid smear campaigns, exposed by Nicky ...
Once upon a time, not so long ago, those who talked of Australian sovereign capability, especially in the technology sector, were generally considered an amusing group of eccentrics. After all, technology ecosystems are global and ...
The ACT Party leader’s latest pet project is bleeding taxpayers dry, with $10 million funneled into seven charter schools for just 215 students. That’s a jaw-dropping $46,500 per student, compared to roughly $9,000 per head in state schools.You’d think Seymour would’ve learned from the last charter school fiasco, but apparently, ...
India navigated relations with the United States quite skilfully during the first Trump administration, better than many other US allies did. Doing so a second time will be more difficult, but India’s strategic awareness and ...
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi is concerned for low-income workers given new data released by Stats NZ that shows inflation was 2.5% for the year to March 2025, rising from 2.2% in December last year. “The prices of things that people can’t avoid are rising – meaning inflation is rising ...
Last week, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment recommended that forestry be removed from the Emissions Trading Scheme. Its an unfortunate but necessary move, required to prevent the ETS's total collapse in a decade or so. So naturally, National has told him to fuck off, and that they won't be ...
China’s recent naval circumnavigation of Australia has highlighted a pressing need to defend Australia’s air and sea approaches more effectively. Potent as nuclear submarines are, the first Australian boats under AUKUS are at least seven ...
In yesterday’s post I tried to present the Reserve Bank Funding Agreement for 2025-30, as approved by the Minister of Finance and the Bank’s Board, in the context of the previous agreement, and the variation to that agreement signed up to by Grant Robertson a few weeks before the last ...
Australia’s bid to co-host the 31st international climate negotiations (COP31) with Pacific island countries in late 2026 is directly in our national interest. But success will require consultation with the Pacific. For that reason, no ...
Old and outdated buildings being demolished at Wellington Hospital in 2018. The new infrastructure being funded today will not be sufficient for future population size and some will not be built by 2035. File photo: Lynn GrievesonLong stories short from our political economy on Thursday, April 17:Simeon Brown has unveiled ...
Thousands of senior medical doctors have voted to go on strike for 24 hours overpay at the beginning of next month. Callaghan Innovation has confirmed dozens more jobs are on the chopping block as the organisation disestablishes. Palmerston North hospital staff want improved security after a gun-wielding man threatened their ...
Te Pāti Māori are appalled by Cabinet's decision to agree to 15 recommendations to the Early Childhood Education (ECE) sector following the regulatory review by the Ministry of Regulation. We emphasise the need to prioritise tamariki Māori in Early Childhood Education, conducted by education experts- not economists. “Our mokopuna deserve ...
The Government must support Northland hapū who have resorted to rakes and buckets to try to control a devastating invasive seaweed that threatens the local economy and environment. ...
New Zealand First has today introduced a Member’s Bill that would ensure the biological definition of a woman and man are defined in law. “This is not about being anti-anyone or anti-anything. This is about ensuring we as a country focus on the facts of biology and protect the ...
After stonewalling requests for information on boot camps, the Government has now offered up a blog post right before Easter weekend rather than provide clarity on the pilot. ...
More people could be harmed if Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey does not guarantee to protect patients and workers as the Police withdraw from supporting mental health call outs. ...
The Green Party recognises the extension of visa allowances for our Pacific whānau as a step in the right direction but continues to call for a Pacific Visa Waiver. ...
The Government yesterday released its annual child poverty statistics, and by its own admission, more tamariki across Aotearoa are now living in material hardship. ...
Today, Te Pāti Māori join the motu in celebration as the Treaty Principles Bill is voted down at its second reading. “From the beginning, this Bill was never welcome in this House,” said Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader, Rawiri Waititi. “Our response to the first reading was one of protest: protesting ...
The Green Party is proud to have voted down the Coalition Government’s Treaty Principles Bill, an archaic piece of legislation that sought to attack the nation’s founding agreement. ...
A Member’s Bill in the name of Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter which aims to stop coal mining, the Crown Minerals (Prohibition of Mining) Amendment Bill, has been pulled from Parliament’s ‘biscuit tin’ today. ...
Labour MP Kieran McAnulty’s Members Bill to make the law simpler and fairer for businesses operating on Easter, Anzac and Christmas Days has passed its first reading after a conscience vote in Parliament. ...
Nicola Willis continues to sit on her hands amid a global economic crisis, leaving the Reserve Bank to act for New Zealanders who are worried about their jobs, mortgages, and KiwiSaver. ...
Pacific Media Watch The Fijians for Palestine Solidarity Network today condemned the Fiji government’s failure to stand up for international law and justice over the Israeli war on Gaza in their weekly Black Thursday protest. “For the past 18 months, we have made repeated requests to our government to do ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Michelle Grattan and Amanda Dunn discuss the fourth week of the 2025 election campaign. While the death of Pope Francis interrupted campaigning for a while, the leaders had another debate on Tuesday night and the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Whatever the result on May 3, even people within the Liberals think they have run a very poor national campaign. Not just poor, but odd. Nothing makes the point more strongly than this week’s ...
The Finance Minister says the leftover funding from the unexpectedly low uptake of the FamilyBoost policy will be redistributed to families who need it. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Professor and Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney People who apply for asylum in Australia face significant delays in having their claims processed. These delays undermine the integrity of the asylum system, erode ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Every election cycle the media becomes infatuated, even if temporarily, with preference deals between parties. The 2025 election is no exception, with ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Hortle, Deputy Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania For each Australian federal election, there are two different ways you get to vote. Whether you vote early, by post or on polling day on May 3, each eligible voter will be ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Mortimore, Lecturer, Griffith Business School, Griffith University wedmoment.stock/Shutterstock If elected, the Coalition has pledged to end Labor’s substantial tax break for new zero- or low-emissions vehicles. This, combined with an earlier promise to roll back new fuel efficiency standards, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pi-Shen Seet, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Edith Cowan University Once again, housing affordability is at the forefront of an Australian federal election. Both major parties have put housing policies at the centre of their respective campaigns. But there are still ...
After a nearly four year hiatus, New Zealand’s premiere popstar is back with a brand new single. It’s been a thrilling few weeks of breadcrumbing for Lorde fans, as the New Zealand popstar has been teasing her return to the zeitgeist through mysterious silver duct tape on her shoes, rainbow ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Meade, Adjunct Associate Professor, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith University Daria Nipot/Shutterstock With ongoing cost of living pressures, the Australian and New Zealand supermarket sectors are attracting renewed political attention on both sides of the Tasman. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erika K. Smith, Associate Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, Western Sydney University This article contains mention of racist terms in historical context. Every Anzac Day, Australians are presented with narratives that re-inscribe particular versions of our national story. One such narrative persistently ...
“Anzac Day is portrayed as a day where the country can reflect on the horrors of war, the costs in human lives and commit collectively to never again allowing genocidal mass murder. We have to ask, is that really happening?” said Valerie Morse, member ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer Parker, Adjunct Fellow, Naval Studies at UNSW Canberra, and Expert Associate, National Security College, Australian National University Australian strategic thinking has long struggled to move beyond a narrow view of defence that focuses solely on protecting our shores. However, in today’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University As Australia begins voting in the federal election, we’re awash with political messages. While this of course includes the typical paid ads in newspapers and on TV (those ones ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Peng, Lecturer in Accounting, The University of Queensland Shutterstock For Australians approaching retirement, recent market volatility may feel like more than just a bump in the road. Unlike younger investors, who have time on their side, retirees don’t have ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Judith Brett, Emeritus Professor of Politics, La Trobe University Beatrice Faust is best remembered as the founder, early in 1972, of the Women’s Electoral Lobby (WEL). Women’s Liberation was already well under way. Betty Friedan had published The Feminine Mystique in 1962, ...
The Spinoff’s top picks of events from around the motu. Wow lucky us, it’s time to kiss the wheelie office chairs goodbye and begin another(!) long weekend. As tempting as I know it is to lean into the phone addiction and do just about nothing, you should make the most ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor (Practice), Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University In the past week, at least seven women have been killed in Australia, allegedly by men. These deaths have occurred in different contexts – across state borders, communities and relationships. But ...
National MP and diehard Shihad fan Chris Bishop sings the praises of his favourite band’s classic 1995 album. Last week I went to my first ever Taite Music Prize ceremony, the annual bash to honour independent music in New Zealand. I’d love to say I was invited, but I wasn’t ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wayne Peake, Adjunct research fellow, School of Humanities and Communication Arts, Western Sydney University The story goes that the late billionaire Australian media magnate Kerry Packer once visited a Las Vegas casino, where a Texan was bragging about his ranch and how ...
Coal mine expansion into the West Coast’s Denniston plateau attracted more than 70 protesters over the Easter weekend. Climate activists say this is only the first step in resisting the Bathurst mining company. “Oh yeah – right there is where we’re digging trenches to keep tents from getting flooded,” said ...
The Department of Internal Affairs buys and replaces these cars for ex PMs and/or spouses, with the exception of Chris Hipkins, who wasn’t in the job more than two years, and John Key, who declined the entitlement. ...
Te Pūkenga divisions are going to be trusted to take new apprentices and trainees but the ones they currently care for and teach are going to be ripped away from them in a messy transition. ...
The strike is part of a growing rebellion by health workers internationally against attacks by capitalist governments, led by the US Trump administration, on public health services. ...
Alex Casey talks to Aaron Yap, the New Zealander behind the viral interview format adored by movie fans worldwide. For the last few years, the showbiz publicity circuit has become dominated by novelty interview formats. Celebrities now answer questions while eating increasingly spicy chicken wings, or playing with puppies, or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nazia Pathan, PhD, Postdoctoral Researcher, Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University Biobanks have become some of the most transformative tools in medical research, enabling scientists to study the relationships between genes, health and disease on an unprecedented scale(Piqsels/Siyya) If there’s a ...
I’ve just realised that I dislike one of my friends. What do I do? Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nzHi Hera, I have figured out that I just… don’t like someone in my extended friend group. They’re the kind of person who comes with the warning label, ...
With multiple 1-in-100 year events now occurring inside 6 weeks, it's time for Auckland Council to radically alter the budget it is proposing.
Just like central government.
Since the Mayor won't of course since he campaigned on low rates, it is time for all the Green and Labour Councillors to get together to propose their own alternative budget.
They should not be afraid – they need to take a leadership position on the budget, and know that they will be fully in step with Government in doing so.
Come on Labour and Green Councillors!
We're in the third year of a La Nina cycle (the first since 1950 and this time exacerbated by global warming). It's forecast to go go neutral soon and then back to El Nino for next summer.
What we've had is not the new normal, it was an extreme – and will be rare with El Nino (more drought in the north and east of Enzed).
But even La Nina combos (mostly 2 year only) that will happen within each decade when combined with worsening GW is enough to justify planning for resilience. And that and acting on recommendations will require funding – thus budget change. Then the part to be played by council in recovery – also budget impact.
Yes. As long as the El Nino – Neutral – La Nina cycle continues, we will get respites. These respites may be regional – one region gets hit badly in one phase of the cycle and other regions in other phases. Less optimistically, the cycle may give us different types of extremes – floods in La Nina, and heatwaves/fires in El Nino. More gloomily, can we be sure that 3 or more degrees of warming wont mess up this natural cycle in some way?
It is right to assume we are on a generally deteriorating path until some time after net zero emissions are achieved and therefore should plan accordingly. The sooner net zero is achieved, the more likely it is that adaptation can be afforded – though the pessimist in me suspects that it already can't be.
I do believe that long-term weather trends are linked to climate change.
However, in the specific instance of Cyclone Gabrielle, and other recent weather stability in our area, there is an international study looking at whether there is a link between the recent Tongan eruption and Cyclone Gabrielle.
From the article:
So, no established link between those events at the moment. But, in theory, there might be. Will be interesting to see if that eruption is linked to recent events.
Looking for the "out clause" for every damaging weather event will be seen, eventually, for what it is.
Claiming climate change causes every storm is as bad, storms been storming since for ever, climate change is just the coraline these storms get jacked up on.
Agreed. There's no simple answer to "what caused this storm".
\However, citing sun-spots, HARP or some volcano somewhere to counter the over-all AGW phenomenon is just feeble, imo.
AGW intersects with natural events. How would you ever separate them out? Trying to separate them out is rearranging the deck chairs.
The Tongan volcano eruption tells us even more that we should be dropping GHGs as a much as possible. Everything we can do at this point to create more stability matters.
I don't dispute climate linked weather events at all. It makes absolute sense. A boiling kettle puts a lot more water into the atmosphere than a block of ice. And I agree it could be both working together.
But, I think we need to be careful to ensure that we don't ignore other contributing events. Otherwise, we end up in the same camp as climate change deniers who point to every bout of cold weather as evidence that climate change isn't true.
I don't understand your point. Are you suggesting that climate change might not be a factor in Cyclone Gabrielle?
I am in agreement with you pretty much. I think that climate change definitely has a role. But it may have been exacerbated by the volcano. It is difficult to tease the two apart.
Events like volcanic eruptions have been a part of weather forever. But, if that is combined with climate change, then the effects could well be a lot more severe than the would otherwise have been.
But, if the extreme weather we have experienced is due to a combination of both the volcano and climate change, then all the poor sods up north may not have to experience those sorts of extremes every year.
They still likely will get increasingly unstable weather. But, if the mix explaining the recent weather does include the volcano, then it may not be that bad again for quite awhile. So, I think it is worth the research being done to find out.
I guess it strikes to the question of how much local mitigation and adaption will be required going forward.
whereas I think that climate change is here, now, and we're very behind on what we need to do and we just need to get on with it. Equivocating about whether x storm was caused by AGW or a volanco seems like a distraction at a time when we really can't afford it. For instance, if we go, oh maybe it's not going to be so bad after all, do you think that will make people resistant to change more or less likely to change?
Not so much that. But more to do with whether we need to relocate whole swathes of the population or not.
If the extent of flooding we saw in the NI is only likely to occur in a rare combination of circumstances then we may not need to put as much into mitigation and adaption. But, if this type of flooding is going to be the norm, then we probably need to be much more proactive in relocating communities.
So, getting some understanding on this is quite helpful for planning for the medium term future at least.
No sensible person is "ignoring other contributing events", they're/we're just not being deceived by those who drag red-herrings across the trail every single time there is a harmful weather event.
Chill out. Not everyone who points to some contributing factor outside climate change is a rabid climate change denier.
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption is a possible “contributing factor” to the severity of cyclone Gabrielle's impacts on Aotearoa NZ and its people.
No one can prevent large volcanic eruptions, but I can decrease my carbon footprint. It's really quite simple (not rocket science), if you're genuinely concerned about the consequences of anthropogenic global warming.
What have we learned in the last 4 weeks/years? We can be really dim bulbs.
If there is a link it is a very indirect one.
Cyclone Gabrielle was originally a weak low north of Fiji. It moved westwards into the Coral Sea not too distant from Queensland where conditions were ripe for it to become a Cat.3 tropical cyclone.
The Tongan Islands are a long way from Queensland.
As we have been informed there is a reliable MSM and there is other less trustworthy news sources.
So this must be really embarrasing for RNZ and TVNZ and the staff there.
When litigation lawyers cite "act of God" as supporting argument …
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/hilary-barry-speaks-out-following-liz-gunns-arrest-at-auckland-airport/ZM5L4BT7OVFV5C3JGMEQZXQXAM/
There is of course a growing career for the investigative journalist looking at the (origins) sourcing of money behind various "freedom fronts/other supportive narratives".
That list will grow.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/election-2023/national-party-reiterates-head-office-downsizing-will-help-pay-for-tax-cuts?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=nzh-home
It should be interesting to hear Nicola Willis explain the cost of the tax cuts and relate this to the number of workers and wages they are paid (and where they are employed).
Given that this seems to be an interesting and public good project I am not sure why this has not been supported. It was widely posited that these organisations were obtaining finding from 'shadowy' figures supporting similar groups in the US & Canada.
Even if they listed the NZ based supporters of the parliamentary protest in terms of on the ground support as part of the 'memories' series that Stuff is doing. I would be interested in some investigative reporting into who these firms were, do they still support the aims of the protest etc. I appreciate that some of this material is still live as these supporters continue eg Counterspin media and various other white supremacist groups. Some seem to have morphed into anti climate change groups.
Wiki says this about who they were
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Wellington_protest
'The protestors were a mixed group, but the majority protested the COVID-19 mask and vaccine mandates in New Zealand, while some identified with far-right politics such as Trumpism, white nationalism and Christian fundamentalism. The protest methods ranged from peaceful to increasingly violent'.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/463253/parliament-protest-questions-remain-on-source-of-donations-and-where-they-went
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/14-03-2022/murkiness-surrounds-sources-of-protest-donations-and-how-money-was-spent
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/465969/parliament-protest-ipca-gets-3-point-5m-funding-for-inquiry-into-policing
Our own Nicky Hagar is a member of this group of investigative journalists.
https://www.icij.org/
Those who would have a motive would oppose international co-operation on tax havens/regulatory oversight of offshore companies/trusts/international money movement – stateless money/power/influence as well as normal right wing agendas under the banner of useful populist causes "freedom" from government – national and and international regime (GW/environment/labour/migrant labour/offshore ownership and investment).
We've all come across cases where there seems to be two rules applying. Say a business or tax fraud case and a welfare fraud case and the disparate consequences.
https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/news/2017/08/why-is-tax-evasion-treated-more-gently-than-benefit-fraud2
There is another, people who have a tertiary debt only pay it back when they they realise employment level of income but those with debt to MSD have to pay it out of their benefit income.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/02/27/anti-poverty-groups-calling-on-govt-to-wipe-all-msd-debt/
.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/former-mp-chester-borrows-dies-after-cancer-battle/O657NWKO3JDE7CFX457CQRQFTU/
Sorry to hear that. I was fond of Chester.
Yes he was a good guy all right.
My SO who had lots to do with Chester through his constituency work said he really was one of the good guys.
Very sad to hear this news.
If the essential life question is not "how long" but "how much" then Chester Borrows did so much, a life in service to others.
Sincere condolences to his family.
A cautionary tale for owners, and especially potential owners, of homes in low lying areas.
.
But as the couple toured the area, situated on the banks of a sluggish river that feeds into the Chesapeake Bay, they noticed something alarming about the homes they were seeing. “We were looking at one house close to the water, and [our real-estate agent] started talking about flood insurance,” Sara recalled to me. “I said, ‘Really? In this area?’” The houses were about half a mile from the river, but monthly flood-insurance premiums on the homes were $800 to $1,000—almost as much as their mortgage payment.
[…]
This displacement is at once profound and not very visible in the coastal housing market, where buyers and lenders are just beginning to digest the immense consequences of future sea-level rise. The value of all of the coastal real estate in the United States exceeds a trillion dollars, and a large portion of that value may vanish as buyers starts to shy away from homes most vulnerable to erosion and frequent flooding. As home values fall to reflect climate risk, wealthy homeowners and investors will dump their distressed assets and flee, while middle-class homeowners like the Langfords will be left to deal with climate catastrophes and costly mortgages. The resulting turmoil could reshape the Eastern Seaboard, threatening the growth of coastal cities such as Norfolk and potentially triggering a slow migration inland
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/02/coastal-cities-housing-sea-level-flooding-climate-change/673106/
https://archive.li/WoD0d
The Queensland and Brisbane floods last year are even more pertinent.
Many years of Brisbane region plains citizens resisting the stop-bank works that might have protected them, or indeed any other scheme.
Yet another 1-in-100 year event.
That is why our flood recovery minister has got our officials engaging with them over lessons learned.
Gender ideology by stealth. The Census is so desperate to know your gender – they will make it up if necessary.
"It's a problem because Sex Matters.
Women need to be counted and this data collection method is prioritising the needs of one group over the needs of another.
The new data standard is advertised as being necessary for the rainbow community to be visible – but how does it create visibility for women? We are a distinct sex class, not a "social or personal identity".
Over the past few months supporters of Speak Up for Women have been busy emailing Stats NZ seeking clarification on the Gender question and the way that various responses will be recorded. We are concerned because we don’t believe in gender, it’s not that we have no gender, it’s not that we would rather not say, it’s that we don’t believe that anyone has a gender and we object to the question. It’s like being asked whether we prefer blue or pink unicorns and being unable to answer that we don’t believe in unicorns.
We are concerned because Sex Matters. We want to be counted as a sex class."
https://www.speakupforwomen.nz/post/do-we-really-count?utm_campaign=16a55eb1-1f22-43bc-b390-4a506933c4cf&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&cid=3014a3da-0436-4a67-b9a9-9a3fe8fefc74
They could have allowed people to answer 'no gender', but presumably that would interfere with their plans to use gender identity as the default.
For those that aren't aware, Stats NZ have said that if you don't answer the gender question (or answer incorrectly), they will choose a gender for you based on data from elsewhere (including the sex question).
Gender (as in identity) appears before the sex question, significantly increasing the likelihood it will be answered as if it relates to sex.
Data most likely will be compromised but the number of answers stating a gender identity will be artfully inflated.
What happens if you are a heretic, and do not believe?
https://twitter.com/fundypost/status/1629617561339068416?s=20
Stats seems to be working really hard to avoid the option of "I don't believe in any of this nonsense".
And they propose one of the synonyms for "female" to be "transwoman".
Obviously up to their necks in Gender Ideology.
Imho, questions about the “insidious” concept of gender won't go away anytime soon.
Is nowhere safe from the clutches of 'gender ideology' – maybe move to Canada?
The mantra of the 20th C was "gender equality", as per suffrage and the equal place in society of women.
And here we are in the 21st C and we have some complaining about gender ideology. Some are Promise Keepers who believe in male leadership (or a form of equal but different) and others who want gender to have no distinctions from birth sex.
For this reason the latter oppose terms such as cisgender because it is an affirmation of the concept that there are those who are not so.
Which explains the politicisation of the census, as it enables some to identify a gender apart from birth sex.
Once people would have complained if people could identify as having a sexuality not heterosexual, or complained that people could identify as having a form of faith seen as blasphemous (say unitarian, universal salvation, deist, gnostic, theosophy, witchcraft, etc).
Some people are free to declare their birth sex and not answer the gender question.
They will be determined to be cisgender. They are not the group being identified, these are those who identify other than their birth sex gender, and what the variants are.
Others are free to identify their gender, but not identify their birth sex. The purpose here how many would do this. It speaks to the issue of allowing people to adopt an official identity at variance with their birth sex gender and or to change their birth identity certificate. Otherwise any significant numbers of those not conforming to birth sex cisgender stereotype, as to information to government.
Unfortunately, you are confusing and conflating sex and gender. Sex is to gender what astronomy is to astrology. You are welcome to believe in astrology – millions do. Astronomy and its sister sciences got us to the moon and puts robots on Mars.
You also use the term "cisgender". This is a term used by gender ideologists to falsely claim that there are two sort of humans – one "cis" and one "trans" and that they are some sort of equal variants. Sex in humans is bi-modal and immutable. To attempt to get around this fact, "gender" was used to attempt to establish an equality between physiological reality and psychological ailments or paraphillia.
If the Census has to have a section on gender – it should be treated like any other ideology.
We also have the religious question.
Your opinion about the existence or otherwise of God has no more relevance to that than your opinions on gender.
No, I am explaining the census to you.
Whereas you are using the census as part of a campaign to reject transgender women being able to identify as women and to label people as psychologically ill or with a paraphilia. The conservatives opposing homosexual law reform want their arguments back.
Trans gender "women" have to "identify" as women because they are not women. There is nothing physical that separates them from the category of "men" and places them in the category of "women".
They are men with a bodily dysmorphia, men with internalised homophobia, or men with various paraphilia.
And don't you dare wave the Law Reform arguements at me. Gender ideology totally rejects the whole concept of same sex attraction. The very words are called a "transphobic dogwhistle". We are supposed to be same gender attracted these days – not same sex attracted. Lesbians are denied even the right to organise gatherings for lesbians without having to admit any man who opens his mouth and utters the magical incantation "I identify as".
"Transing away the Gay" is the ultimate Gay Conversion Therapy.
I would reply but apparently not even one sentence in my post (that was blocked) cannot be made again – not even by typing out the words afresh here in this box.
I have no idea why your comment might have been ‘blocked’!?
It's a weird one alright, I referred it to LPrent at the time.
And it's
Debating the issue on another occasion might require some improvement in grammar and vocabulary, never too late to start I suppose …
Clearly, it is above my pay-grade and ability. I can see the ‘test’ comment you made on Tuesday morning, which you then trashed. Weird indeed …
I made a post on Open Mike 6 March (last one) – it appears Word Press has banned me form using the word sexuality when discussing gender issues.
Gone over the head of the site.
This reminds me of the old carnivore and echelon word search methods to identify subversives … now to censor/cancel culture?
Cotton boxers is becoming an issue as more heterosexual women disrespectfully identify as gay men.
(I can't think of a worse impact on well-being than targeting as the sole group for your intimate partners people that have a sexual orientation that excludes you.)
https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1628451056928817154?s=20
‘The gay rights movement was about liberation, this is about control’