Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Step right up to the mike…
Interesting new poll: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour
Personally, I struggle to believe National could get more than the 47.3% it won in 2011. Governments tend to lose votes over time. Having said that, National won only 44.9% in 2008 so John Key has already broken the rule once.
National at 49% – but in the election they got 45%! 4% of their vote just disappeared
Basically the Fairfax poll has always massively overstated the National potential to win votes. I guess that is why you cling to it like a child wrapping themselves around their comfort blankie…
Well, exactly. The polls always seem to overstate National’s support. Although you are not comparing apples with apples. This poll was by Ipsos, the 2011 one was by Research International and the 2005 one by Nielson.
But you have just successfully made the case for ignoring Fairfax polls.
That three different companies have consistently managed to follow practices that massively overstate Nationals support tends to indicate that there may be a systematic bias from that source? It is a small sample but it certainly does indicate that to me…
It’s not just Fairfax though. All the main polls (Herald, Fairfax, TVNZ, TV3) have tended to overstate National’s support. It’s as if their sampling has some sort of inbuilt bias against the smaller parties. One thing’s for sure though the latest Roy Morgan with Nats on 41.5% (and no chance of forming a majority) and this Fairfax poll with Nats on 50% can’t both be right.
Something to keep in mind when making that comparison, is that pre-election poll was carried out by a different polling company. Ipsos started polling for Fairfax after the election.
I know. But if you look back in the record for fairfax polls you’ll find at least one other company doing their polls that I’m aware of. It never seems to make much difference to the overall outcome that the “Fairfax poll” gets. They massively overstate the right to suspicious extent. I suspect that the polling companies that Fairfax uses all operate by the maxim that the customer is always right(ish).
That plus their sporadic schedule means that they are essentially useless when divining the tea leaves for election results. Probably why Matthew dribbles on about them.
I prefer the much more frequent polling by Roy Morgan that isn’t done for any organisation with a hidden agenda. Despite the usual statistical variation and sampling biases, it is possible to see actual trends in that rather than the need for interesting headlines.
I don’t think though that any polling company would let a client influence the results in any way, shape, or form. The interpretation maybe, but not the results themselves. If polling company did, they could be thrown out of the MRSNZ.
Given the expectation for how well Labour/Greens are doing at the moment, I suspect the people at Fairfax were a surprised by the result as people here are.
I suspect the people at Fairfax were a surprised by the result as people here are.
That is the daft thing. I wasn’t surprised. If you think of this thing narratively rather than statistically, then a completely different poll result that can spun as a reversal is one of those twists that makes for a good story.
I don’t think though that any polling company would let a client influence the results in any way, shape, or form. The interpretation maybe, but not the results themselves. If polling company did, they could be thrown out of the MRSNZ.
All that has to be done is to pick a technique that may follow statistical practices, but does not accurately reflect the voting population.
For instance my favourite example is the way that using listed land line polling systematically overstates the right. Parts of Auckland have been down at or lower than 50% listed-land-lines per household against the electoral roll for nearly a decade. Whereas in other parts of the country are closer to 90% listed-land-line. Moreover apart from the urban/provincials split, in every region the poorer voters and the younger voters with a landline are distinctly more likely to not have a accessible land-line.
So guess what is the sampling technique that Fairfax pays for?
I’m pretty sure none of the main polling companies survey only listed landlines. They use RDD, so every landline is given a chance of selection, including the unlisted ones.
Sampling from the electoral roll would be a silly idea for a phone survey, coz you would have to match with only listed numbers. That’s pretty daft for a political poll, as lists are biased in favour of home and vehicle owners.
Ah no. RDD is a bit of a myth. Even if you had the switch ranges, the number system gaps between exchanges mean that it is unlikely to be random. Without them in a 8 digit system covering less than 2 million households, your probabilities are low to even find a open number.
But more basically, try and find a person with unlisted numbers who has been called.
The electoral roll is the population that is attempted to be sampled in a political poll.
I think you should look into RDD a bit more. You simply ping them to test if they are connected.
As I said, matching the electoral roll with published phone listings results in a bias toward home and vehicle owners, and an extremely small response rate if you factor in all the people you can’t match.
RDD ain’t no myth. I use it myself, and we update it to cover all known number ranges.
I hope no offence is taken by this, but I’m afraid you misunderstand the process of generating RDD sample.
Random numbers are generated within known number ranges. It’s not hard to work out the known number ranges from published listings. The random numbers are then pinged to find the connected numbers. There is a whole lot more to the process too, like selecting in proportion to the size of each area while factoring in the connection rate.
I use RDD for surveys I design, so I know exactly how it’s done, and how it shown be done properly. For my surveys we call people with unlisted numbers all the time.
Using the electoral roll for telephone samples requires tele-matching against published listings. These listings are biased in favour of home and vehicle owners, and they exclude unlisted numbers. Also, once you factor in all the people you can’t match, either because they have no landline, they have moved, or their number is unlisted, then the response rate for this type of survey is *extremely* low.
I can guarantee you that RDD sampling isn’t a myth. Just send me an email if you’d like to know more about it.
So RDD based sampling for political polls captures persons not on the electoral roll as well?
If RDD sampling is reasonably systematically unbiased, how else can you explain National’s support being fairly consistently over-estimated by the polls?
A case in point was John Armstrong in a column a month or so ago,(sorry i havn’t got a link for it), openly admitted that He ‘thought’ the Reid-poll skewed it’s results by asking respondents a series of leading questions designed specifically to have respondents favor one party over another…
If it’s true that Armstrong said that, then I believe he’s wrong.
The polling code, which is soon to be ratified by the MRSNZ, requires the principal voting question to be asked early in the interview. The person who runs the Reid poll was involved in putting the code together. I know him, and I don’t believe he would do this.
Andrew, i like naive people, you know the person involved in putting the Reid-poll together, explains your explanations then doesn’t it, care to explain what connection you have to these polling organizations…
Both your assertions are to say the least questionable without the addition of the magic stuff that makes the pie taste sweet, ‘Proof’,
By ‘research’ are you alluding to the particular branch of alchemy which produces political polls???,
i do not know whether the question you ask is directed at me personally as i have no say what-so-ever in who comments here at the Standard, but, as an indicative signpost i usually distrust those who’s writing tends to portray them in a light of a somewhat different hue than the musings of your average Labour Party supporter,
In other words suit yourself an examination of a continued commentary from you would in effect show us all where your true political allegiances should or do lie….
Ghostrider, for a negative comment directed at me it contains not enough information to give you a full reply so i will just resort to yes dickhead i do…
Maybe the answer is a lot simpler – bully tactics, long practiced at school level and beyond. If you can convince a many of the validity of a few you can win the argument. Publish that party xy is the top dog and bob is your uncle. All you need is some gullible folk and unveiled threat of doom.
Participation in the political process would demand some interest in the community and nation at large. Look around you and be honest. My experience is that if I just make an innocent comment in my work canteen such as:” it will be difficult for west coasters to find a job”, blank stares is all I get. I don’t bother with conversation about the social/political life really, there is no vigorous thought process out there and I don’t want to provoke some banjo playing. Best to stick to the weather, family, sport and hmmmm…. food perhaps is another one.
This is why such pols become self fulfilling prophecies.
I don’t have any trouble believing that the poll has National able or nearly able to form a government. There are an awful lot of people who honestly think the opinions expressed on Whaleoil and Kiwiblog are rational.
There are an awful lot of people who honestly think the opinions expressed on Whaleoil and Kiwiblog are rational.
That is what makes National the largest party. They have been consolidating the nuts over the last decade as the other conservative parties die from voter starvation. But even with the 800k non-vote, they have pretty well hit the limits of how much the right accretion in the upcoming election.
That lack of accretion is the underlying reason for the SOE asset sales. They were hoping to widen the base of shareholding voters to increase their pool of voters.
Just have a look at what gets posted as “Pete”, and pay particular attention to the regular features. Draw your own conclusions.
Of course it’s possible that Slater actually does have a staff of several different people posting on his site under various names, but you’d have to ask why they keep sharing their logins with each other.
Keep clutching at them straws Hooten, i thought even you wouldn’t be so stupid as to keep trying to flog the ‘Governing alone’ ghost back to life,
It’s good to see such desperation across the whole written media spectrum with the Herald writers now producing only advertorials extolling the National Government this should give them a little more oxygen…
a clear marker of the widespread panic in the right..
..(aside from the corporate-media editors desperately searching for little shards of rightwing-light..anywhere they can..funny to watch..that one..eh..?..)
..is that they are viewing (E.T.-impersonator/christian-fundamentalist in neo-con-drag) colin craig..
It’s easy tho to see why clutching at the very thin straws other’s have plucked from the bale is more to Hootens liking than the political prediction site which He now claims,(since it started producing results He don’t like), to not have anything to do with,
From ipredict this morning,
Prime Minister after 2014 election, Cunliffe 53.3%, Slippery(Key) 48%,
Finance Minister after 2014 election, Parker 50%, English 37.8%,
Party Vote 2014 election, National 40.1%, Governing alone, nah laughably Governing non-one…
Mind you the ‘Loons’ over at ipredict don’t get into trying to ‘lead’ the voters round by the nose with the simpletons ‘National can Govern alone polls’ of the boring old mass media,
The ‘Loons’ over at the other place like to plumb the depths of their affliction by producing suggestive ‘predictions’ of a National/NZFirst/Conservative grand coalition,
NZ First and the Conservatives with 4.7% of the Party vote each, come in ‘spinner’…
As bad12 alludes to, I no longer do the PR for iPredict, but I still think it provides far better indications of future events, including elections, than polls. As bad12 points out, it says Labour is favoured and that its probability of leading the next govt has increased since the change of leader.
”Come in spinner” and lo and behold He does, spinning ever faster Hooten now flips the coin and speaks from the other side of His mouth,
The Fairfax poll gives the next election to National and the ipredict gives the next election to Labour/Green and you believe the both of them Hooten???,
Things must get really interesting inside your head…
And that’s why Labour should can any ideas about converting “centre” votes from National. There are far more votes to be had winning the disengaged, and you don’t have to be a sellout to do it.
In her opinion piece, Tracy Watkins says “That is the shifting ground beneath undecided voters. Among the 12.5 per cent of voters we questioned, 29.7 per cent lean toward Labour, while 22.2 per cent lean to National.”
So assuming that 12.5% = the undecided voters, that still leaves 9.4% of people not intending to vote. 9% is still a lot, but I think that would be a better turnout than last election which is something (assuming all undecided voters vote).
It’s adorable how you say “Interesting new poll” as though you’re not pushing a very specific narrative by posting it. No no, this is just Matthew Hooton, naive, unbiased commenter, linking to something he thinks will be of interest to his fellow Standard commenters, honest, pay no attention to the rightwing spin behind the curtain. 🙄
More of Hootens Horseshit. He spouts it here, he spouts it there, he spouts it everywhere, FFS Hooten. The only ones that believe this crap, are you, BB, and the Knuckle dragger. The rest of us are waiting or the REAL poll. From Morgans.
[lprent:I see you haven’t lost your ability to be outright stupid is still intacft. The question is if I want to have the pointless abuse it generates between here and next years election? ]
And yet when people who review and produce music for a living rate artists and albums across decades and genres Lou features twice (berlin and transformer) and the velevet underground 3 times.
So between them and the punters he appears universally overated, I guess we cant all have your refined tastes BB.
I prefer to pay attention to Brian Eno rather than BB – and not just on music:
The band’s influence on rock, art rock and punk was memorably summed up by Brian Eno’s observation that although the first Velvet Underground album may have sold only 30,000 copies in its first few years, “everyone who bought one of those 30,000 copies started a band”.
We are at that point where alot of the ground breaking artists of the 60-80’s are passing on. Bowie is heading toward 70 and a decade or so of cocaine abuse will probably catch him also.
Just watched sorcese’s excellent doco on George harrison, well worth a look.
eno is a legend with an intellect most artists would kill for.
Big Bruv writes – ‘As for Lou Reed, highly over rated.’
By who? You? Who are you to state such a vacuous thing on the day he died? Fuck Off The Planet you Dick.
Hard to believe poll really. The fact of the matter is that polls and politics are full of professional liars and manipulators so the voter has little chance to make genuine choices anymore and the fact of the matter is they havent since the rise and dominance of polls and professional liars over the last few years.
I find all polls distasteful and unnecessary. Deliberately operating to tell people what to think.
lets trial having no polls for 3 years. The fact of the matter is that Life wont decline for anyone but the professional liars and pollsters.
I propose that everytime the professional liars come up with a new bullshit word strategy that all parties and people start using it liberally to neutralise it.
If Nationals internal polling was indicating that Key was really going to beat his 2011 result… Hooten wouldn’t be working early on Labour Day.
The problem for Key is that despite the media bullshit, Key only won the last election by 45,000 votes. Maybe less. He has no margin of safety to lose.
Nonetheless, the point is made: Labour and the Greens have to play a sharp game over the next 12 months, National is going to Fight back hard. They’re not just going to walk away in 2014.
Xox
Firstly. Polls are unnecessary, distracting and manipulative.
Second. No surprise there, they are right leaning and publicise a right wing view.
Third. This tactic was successful for the Right wing at the last election, as evidenced by the low voter turnout, which clearly indicated disengagement from the democratic process.
Russell Brand has a valid point. Voting for the corporate backed
current democratic process is failing. USA, GB, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland etc etc. Why don’t we try something new called Democracy. Cf corporate crazy.. Dumocrupcy!
Forest and Bird,
Any truth in the rumour that forest and bird are buying shares in Bathurst Resources to try to regain some of the money they have thrown away on frivolous court challenges ???
[lprent: seems unlikely. Changed an unlinked attempt to create a rumour to an appropriate color. Next time you try it, you disappear for a while. ]
In the new poll, 1/5th of voters hadn’t made up their minds yet, and most of those undecided voters were leaning towards Labour. Shows how much Labour needs to increase voter turnout.
Is another Roy Morgan poll coming out soon? Seems we are due for one.
And I agree with some of the above sentiment about opinion polls. They should be banned during campaign season. They just encourage people to either vote for the winner (bandwagon effect), or vote for the loser (underdog effect). People should be voting on their preference. Also waste time on the news when they could be reporting about actual issues.
I’d advocate for a ban on polling activity and poll reporting for the 72 hours before election day, to force people and the press to focus on debating the issues, not the polls.
DTB
I think that the polling etc keeps the election before the public. It wouldn’t be good to have it pushed onto the backburner in people’s minds. Maybe stop polls etc for two weeks before, not longer. People who are particularly susceptible to poll reports will be making their minds up in the last two, even one, week.
I picked a 3 day poll blackout period in order to balance concerns around freedom of press. If there was widespread support for a longer period say 7 or 14 days then yes, it should be implemented.
If we add those voters in and assume they vote for who they lean towards, National lose a seat, but still have 62 seats in a 124 seat House (assuming all electorate seats are held). This might be some consolation to any of you who are worried about a National government that can govern on its own.
An also interesting fact is that this poll is the third most viewed item according to stuff. I don’t know if that bodes well for Labour or not, but it is interesting given that I assumed the average voter didn’t give a crap about polls this far from an election.
People-smugglers in Indonesia are promoting a passage to New Zealand in
shipping containers for up to $17,000 a person and are describing it to
would-be customers as “the cruise ship option”, an Australian news
investigation has found.
Exactly bad – a made up story with the only real interest being why now, what are they afraid of, what don’t they want people talking about – hmmm hollowhooton gives a clue, I also notice some righties still trying to beat up brown – spring is definitely here – lots of blowhards and some spittle.
LOLZ, i can well imagine that particular ship steaming toward Wellington Harbor with A container full of refugees sitting on the deck,(nothing to see here officer)…
Tony Abbott elected on promises of stopping the “boat people”, doesn’t believe in climate change … Fairfax newspapers 14% owned by mining magnate Gina Rinehart start spinning the idea that the “boat people” won’t be coming to Australia. Convenient.
According to the video at the bottom of the link above 52% of fast food families use public assistance benefits to survive (time stamp 1:35- 1:42 but watch until the end it’s only a few seconds and it makes a valid point)
What percentage of NZ families that work in similar jobs are reliant on the state for assistance just to pay basic living costs? If welfare is known to be dangerous to your health, why is the burden not shifted back onto the employer instead of the state?
Big business and big money rules US politics now. Has done for about 40 years. Extremely bad in the last 10 years. Their ability to maintain their Union will come into real question one day.
Well, duh, then the employer wouldn’t make as much profit and they would only have one income stream rather than two. The second being all the money that they’re loaning the government to pay for the costs induced by their low wages.
McD’s USA
These comments are at the bottom of the item at No.9 on low pay. It seems that all of us brought up under the western free market propaganda model respond to complaints by finding fault with the complainer. Being able to coolly look at the situation in its context is not a skill learned at school or home.
fidel 27.10.2013 19:15 – reply to
Ed Walton 25.10.2013 01:58
She’s worked at an entry level job for ten years; yet has no skills to move up. McDonalds isn’t the problem.
Reply – Hey Ed, I’ve worked in this type of environment years ago and it hasn’t changed. As soon as you get the smarts on doing your job and show any initiative, they lay you off. They have a wage ceiling and as soon as you arrive at it, the next step is the door. A lot cheaper to hire 15+ year olds and pay them squat
fidel 27.10.2013 19:05 – reply to
Jp 27.10.2013 06:19
This is smoke screen… Mcdonald that’s for young adults, just to learn how to work… That was my first job 32 years ago! Why are they still working there?
Reply – Th ere aren’t any other jobs you idiot, or do you ever get out or read a newspaper? The real unemployment rate in the good ole USA is almost 10%!
Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like, you can talk of trends, over and under polling, but when a majority of polls are pointing to one thing, then that thing is probably going to happen. The only thing that is a certainly is that the greens always poll way higher than the numbers they actually get on election day.
Third term for national for sure, but then Labour will get in the next time, because they will stop this communist stance that they’re promoting to make all the unionists and pta members hard.
“Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like”
Why not, as long as you pick and chose on the basis of faulty method or demonstrated bias. Picking and choosing on the basis of the results would be stupid.
So I take it you support a Final Solution for trade unionists.
Given that you supported the anti union thug, Peter Jackson, who would rather take production of his crappy overlong movie offshore than deal with a trade union and give his workers sick leave and ACC, that pretty much makes you anti union. And who cares if banning unions would guarantee a sweatshop economy, like in China.
Peter Jackson should be in court for his anti democratic thuggish behavior, and the systematic black listing of unionists in the movie industry is something that needs a Royal Commission to look into, and others to be procecuted. Even if every producer, director and film boss in the country was hauled before the ERA and every dollar squeezed out of them in fines.
BEING IN A UNION IS A DEMOCRATIC RIGHT.
Had PJ made the Hobbit in China, all he had to do was ring up the local PLA barracks, and AE members would be sent to the nearest labour camp, or worse.
“Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like, you can talk of trends, over and under polling, but when a majority of polls are pointing to one thing, then that thing is probably going to happen.”
And the majority of polls point to a change of Government. So what was your, er, point, again?
You mean the three polls after the labour leader election, that pointed to the labour/greens victory and not the 75 polls that pointed to a national victory?
75-3, now Im no good will hunting, but ya dont need to be, with those numbers.
Yeah, ’cause political opinions don’t change over time, and a poll that is 3+ years out from an election is going to be more accurate than one taken 1 year out from an election.
It must be a very confusing place inside that little brain of yours, Brett.
Of the last 14 Roy Morgan polls, the left bloc have come out ahead in 10 of them, and the last 5 in a row. So there’s that.
According to Brett’s logic, National did not actually form a government in 2008, because the majority of polls conducted over 1999-2008 showed Labour would be able to form a government.
His mental dysfunction goes even deeper than that: clearly we only need to conduct a single political poll, because nothing ever changes. That’s why Brett was so surprised to see *another poll* conducted, because what would be the point of that?
No Brett, Key was the firm fave in about 20 out of the 144 polls conducted over the 1999-2008 period, so therefore Labour was obviously going to win 2008, based on the exact same logic you’ve displayed in this thread.
Im always running, but im always running behind.
Never stop to smell the roses the roses, you can always
smell them when your running with them in your hand.
Brett, just about every recent poll, including the historically inaccurate ones like this, show National’s slow slide to the opposition benches. Like it or not, this is MMP and there is no poll saying that National is going win more votes than they did at the last election and without UF, ACT and the MP to prop them up, that’s what they have to do to win.
Donkeyote is beginning to look more and more like the “MUMMY” on teevee last night.
When the magic formula is read he will disappear like a puff of dust.
“simultaneous to this increase in election poll incidence and coverage has been a worldwide decline in issue based political reporting.[3] The increased focus on election poll results and coalition possibilities is said to have “squeezed” out more relevant types of political information.[4] Factual reporting on parties’ and candidates’ policy positions, track records and capabilities is in sharp decline.[5] This holds true in regard to the 2008 New Zealand election campaign: of the top five most covered topics in the media (accounting for 50% of all election campaign coverage), only one topic, the economy, involved discussion of policy, track records and capabilities.[6] While media coverage of election poll results and coalition possibilities is increasing, reporting of political issues is becoming increasingly superficial and trivial.[7]””
Iprent, you seem to forget how Labour did over the same period. If you look at the average of polls you will see in 12 months before the 2011 election National dropped 4% but Labour dropped nearly twice that at 7.5%.
I know its hard to bare but when the cold light of argument shines on Labours policies and record they dont seem to do so well. Cunliffes honeymoon only lasted a month, JKs seems to be going on forever. Remember all that rubbish in 2009 when all were saying JKs honeymoon is over!
A link to the proof of your assertions will go a long way toward making the debate more meaningful or did you just read the comments in the post and think to apply Nationals 2011 pre-election polling from the same organization being presently discussed to the Labour Party instead…
Did you forget that once the books were made public Cullen said”the cupboard is bare” a great achievement after 9 years when the economies of every country in the OECD boomed. After 5 years of National Government when the World has been in recession, we have Growth in NZ,the envy of most OECD countiies. Under the last 6 months of Labour Negative Growth,of as Labours finance minister said” a technical recession”
Did you forget that you wingnuts spent nine years complaining that Cullen was running a surplus and paying down debt?
When you say “the cupboard is bare”, you do recall some tax cuts eh? You see, government raises revenue (that means money) by levying “taxes” (like tennis club fees) and then uses them to provide services as approved by Parliament – things like roads and schools and hospitals and remedial education and support teachers, and all the other things you are a beneficiary of.
So when a government voluntarily slashes its own income who emptied the cupboard?
Please try and keep up.
what a blinkered opinion, Cullen said the cupboard was bare before National had a budget and lowered taxes,did you forget they also put up GST to compensate for the loss of income or is your memory just a bit selective. Remember also that increasing taxes isnt the only answer, it was labours only answer but try growth. You know that thing thats happening under a National Government. More growth =more income = more taxerevenue. Just trying to Tax Rich pricks is a failed Labour policy. If you want a succesful economy it has to grow pushing up wages without growth and taxes without increasing income just leaves you and your policies on the opposition benches,funny that isnt it!
If you dont believe me check Greece and cyprus and most of Europe,especialy the bits with a leftwing Government.
What a strange answer. Have wages realoy gone down over the last30 years , thefacts say different.
evidence for “despite national” In recession National has done as well as Labour in the boom years. You explain why we were 2 places lower inOECD rankings after Labour got in and since National got in WE have gained 2 places! ! to 2 billion ,which, its quite a big difference. Are you saying we are better off because National reduced our total tax gift to the Government and yet improved policing ,health and the economy. More of that please!
Sorry mate, you are dreaming. Most people reading this blog understand that prices have gone up while wages and hours have struggled and fallen behind.
Shame you are so out of touch, you almost had prospects (well, not really).
Must be all those facts that you’re not used to seeing.
In recession National has done as well as Labour in the boom years.
Citation needed and, no, linking to National Party website, Kiwiblog or WhaleOil will not be regarded as reliable source.
You explain why we were 2 places lower inOECD rankings after Labour got in and since National got in WE have gained 2 places!
Oh, that’s easy. We were, and still are, following neo-liberal policies, i.e, the free-market. This resulted in our economy turning to custard over the last thirty years. The reason why we’re relatively up now is because a few other countries, following the same delusional economic prescriptions, have suddenly become worse off (really, this is only a surprise to the neo-liberals and RWNJs).
Are you saying we are better off because National reduced our total tax gift to the Government and yet improved policing ,health and the economy.
Nope, I’m saying we’re worse off because of those things. More poverty, more money going to the non-productive rich and debt sky-rocketing.
You spelled ‘Want’ wrong, and should have finished with a question mark not a comma.
Cullen lowered taxes you nonce, hence the ‘cupboard being bare’ comment.
As for National’s growth, if you factor out record dairy prices, you start to get what they can take credit for. Building roads that don’t make the grade in terms of the Ministry’s own method for determining good value spending, rebuilding ChCh which has to happen but falls under ‘broken windows’, and a housing boom that English spent the first few years telling us was what his ‘rebalancing’ of the economy was supposed to move us away from.
Well you must be looking at a socialist version. When Labour came to goverment the last time we were rated 20th on our economy in the OECD. Clarks plan was to increase our ranking. In 2004 we had dropped to21st, 2007 to 22nd were we remained until National took over. We are now back to 20th under National. Its taken 5 years to undo the damage Labour did last time.
For the bulk of the Clark govt, NZ averaged a quarter of a percent above the OECD quarterly growth figure, with about a quarter of the data points being lower than the OECD average..
For Key’s government, that’s not less than a tenth above the OECD figure on average, with a ratio of 7:11 under:over the OECD average.
We’re only at 20 in the OECD list because the other countries in the list dropped farther after the GFC than we did.
I don’t think this is to any particular credit to National, because they basically did nothing in response to the GFC – not really difficult. I think it’s more a reflection of our economy: we’re a primary producer of agricultural products with very little in the way of value-add. This makes it difficult for us to rise up the OECD rankings, but conversely also means we won’t fall as far when troubled economic times hit, because we simply don’t have a very complex or dynamic economy.
Reality Draco. Labour in the wildest dreams cant expect to come near 50% in the election. National are going to be bloody close! Labour see it as a great success to get above 30% in the polls and see it as a failure if National get less than 50%. What a strange World to live in.
National need 50% in order to be able to form a government.
It’s an ideal example of why neoliberalism fails: by refusing cooperation and basic social interaction with anyone of a different creed, National now need to provide pretty much all their electoral support for themselves. If they fail to achieve an outstanding victory, they will sit on the opposition benches until they learn to play with others. The left, on the other hand, can work together, respecting, accepting, and accommodating different policy objectives. Each party might not achieve dominance and the power to ram through their particular policy fetish, but by working together, they have a much better chance of sitting on the government benches. While scrooge mcfuck yells “humbug” from the other side, while getting his woodlice to sniff underwear in the search for scandal.
I am not so sure how the next election will go to be honest. Mr Cunliffe is as silent as Shearer was. The general public needs to know what Labour stands for as many have forgotten. One needs to remember that the ordinary folks out there are scared to loose the job, being able to raise their kids, pay the doctor, go onto retirement etc… once people are in that predicament its very difficult to get them changing their opinion and vote, if they vote at all.
What do you mean with Huh??? – Maybe academic and political circles talk a lot about him, but Joe blogs does not hear much. I know he is traveling the provinces but what are the policies re employment, growth, sustainability, debt and taxes etc…try to ask people in the street and you will quickly realize that not many can give any answers.
Yes, but isn’t that his job? He was sitting a long time on the backbench able to put some coherent ideas together. Or is this just a case of not revealing to much too soon?
Aint going to work as he hasnt done well. Do you realy think trying to rig the poll will help Labour. See colmar Brunton. Labour 34% and only a third of them think hes a good performer. Do I see another Labour leader before election day.
Ok you’ll need to explain why that comment was creepy because apart from what I’m guessing is your inability to distinguish between reality and fantasy I’m not sure how something that was complimentary could be taken as creepy
But I’m sure you’ll have some totally plausible explanation
When the economy is fucked, the unemployment is on the rise and the living standard keeps dropping, let’s keep the masses distracted with scaremongering about boatloads of asylum seekers heading for our shores:
Economy F8888d not according to every economic indicator.A world reccession and National are dragging NZ up the OECD scale, unlike Labour were we dropped.
And your comment shows very much what manipulation is being applied. Of cause the US is in a very bad state due to the money press running since quite a while. What will happen when it stops? The contraction in the world markets will certainly be felt. Japan, another one that is in a similar situation and China’s economy is coming off the boil. Of cause NZ looks good against this backdrop, even Bangladesh would. To compare this to a NZ when all 3 major trading partners had not yet seen the banking crush of 2008 is simply deceit. None of the NZ parties will or have ever been able to influence any of this. To sell this to the NZ public as an achievement is almost treachery.
This might appeal to all those upright ethical tory lads suddenly so concerned about leadership ethics and morality……
From NRT: John Key [p 13] spent $110 on very expensive skin-care products, tagged as “NZ skin care for protocol officer”. Was it a gift? Because if it wasn’t, it seems extravagant. Not to mention odd
Dr Sommer Kapitan, Auckland University of Technology, and Dr Patrick van Esch, Auckland University of TechnologyThe Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Vaping) Amendment Bill will limit vape sales at dairies and service stations to only three flavours, and make vaping illegal in smokefree areas. Vaping laws will be more ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Aug 2, 2020 through Sat, Aug 8, 2020Editor's ChoiceFive Years After Speaking Out on Climate Change, Pope Francis Sounds an Urgent AlarmThe encyclical ‘Laudato Si’ motivated many people ...
From some quarters, incessant scaremongering. From others, it’s a full-on tilt into touching the alarmist buttons a little too readily (uncertain times make for very captive audiences with this angle of attack). The (so-called) Opposition (and merely regarding them as that seems to be a far looser term now ...
National Party leader - Judith CollinsElections often bring out the best and worst in politicians. Some rise to the occasion and provide us with a clear vision for the future. While others wallow in resentment and controversy, over-relying on attack politics to try to attain the interest of voters.That’s been ...
The attempts to sabotage Corbyn's leadership seems likely to do more damage than Corbyn supposedly ever could have done, even if all the stories about him were true:I was reluctant to say anything but this is too important, the full story needs to be told.Don’t let anyone ever tell ...
Good day to everyone. I’ve been asked by Mr Thinks to come here and talk to you all about my concerns regarding the government response to Covid-19. We’ve been living through this pandemic for, what seems like, years. Years and years and years. Why else would the National Party have ...
‘Good Economics for Hard Times’ should be on your reading list. New Zealand does not have a Minister of Labour. It has Ministers of Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety but there is no minister with responsibility for the labour market. That responsibility was abolished in 2012 when ...
Back in the Kyoto era, the international climate change regime included a Clean Development Mechanism to fund emissions reduction projects in developing nations. Essentially someone would certify that a project - e.g. building a windfarm, or installing energy-efficient lightbulbs - would reduce emissions over and above "business-as-usual". The project would ...
As the classic MMP cartoon goes, just look at who is against it. Yesterday, the Hamilton City Council voted to use STV for its next two local body elections. The move was initially opposed by deputy mayor Geoff Taylor. The reason? Because a voting system which provided accurate representation and ...
On Wednesday evening (which in Parliament’s weird world technically was still Tuesday because urgency had been taken and so time stood still), MPs united to remove a pretty terrible piece of law from our statute books. No real fanfare or fireworks accompanied this action. Indeed, I didn’t even know about it ...
By Geoffrey Miller Prominent refugee advocate Murdoch Stephens says he is disappointed by Judith Collins’ reaction to Immigration New Zealand’s decision to grant refugee status to Kurdish-Iranian writer Behrouz Boochani. Judith Collins told media last month that “there’s a lot of concern in New Zealand about what they see as ...
Hello all. Judith here to talk about how National are going to take the election in September. The National Party prides itself its unity and cohesion. We are working together to deliver for New Zealanders. First of all, ee are a strong team. We are a very strong team. Our ...
Parliament has just begun the adjournment debate, signalling the effective end of this Parliament. So it seems like an appropriate time to assess Labour's term in office. Unfortunately, its a pretty dismal assessment. Labour campaigned on one thing: change. Not just a change in who got the top jobs and ...
Our climate change policies are insufficient to achieve our goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, according to independent assessor Climate Action Tracker: New Zealand won’t be carbon neutral by 2050 without much stronger policies, says an independent analysis by Climate Action Tracker. The non-profit highlighted a lack of active ...
That was clearly a huge explosion. Just after the explosion, we see a cloud of ‘fog’ moving outwards at high speed. This is a shockwave, rather similar to that which causes a sonic boom. The ‘fog’ is caused by water condensing from the atmosphere in areas of intense low pressure ...
Can we postpone this year’s election? Quite frankly, the political parties don’t seem ready for it, and aren’t about to offer voters the necessary policy choices for the unprecedented times we’re in. We’ve ended up with a campaign focused on scandal, personality and leadership, with a policy void that’s worse ...
It is the last sitting day of Parliament, and the last question time before the House is dissolved. So, are there any questions about the damning findings of the Hit and Run inquiry, and how the government plans to bring the military back under democratic control? Of course not. ...
Property speculator - John KeyThe National Party must be in dire straits to have to rely on John Key to campaign on their behalf. Not only has the former PM been in the news claiming the recently released unemployment figures aren’t accurate, the fool has also been promoting the opening ...
Nothing Too Drastic: Few would dispute that the Left, today, are few in number. Is their failure to make the public aware of and act upon the manifest failures of the present system attributable to their lack of active energy and intelligence? Or, is it simply because the Left’s ideas ...
by Don Franks This talk was given to the Wellington Anti Capitalist Alliance, fifteen years ago. The ultimate weapons of mass destruction so far seen on this planet have been used just twice, 60 years ago this month. August 6 and August 9 1945 witnessed the US atomic bombing ...
After I noticed that my name had been taken yet again in vain by my friendly antagonist Tom Hunter over at No Minister, I went over to see what the fuss was about. Nothing much, but then I discovered a post about the Operation Burnham Inquiry by Psycho Milt. I ...
The COVID-19 Public Health Response Act 2020 was extended today, until December 1st or the tenth sitting day following the resumption of Parliament after the election. It seems like a necessary extension. While we currently have eradicated the virus in New Zealand, it is still banging at the door, and ...
One of the government's key policies - extracted by NZ First as part of its coalition agreement - is the "Provincial Growth Fund": $1 billion a year spent on creating jobs in rural New Zealand. Yesterday the Auditor-General issued a report on the fund, finding that it lacks transparency, and ...
The Warehouse, one of New Zealand's biggest retailers, has decided to stop selling coal. Good. Coal is a dirty, polluting fossil fuel, and the less of it we have out there, the better. Retailers choosing not to sell it sends a clear message that this is not a fuel we ...
The labour market statistics have been released, and they show that unemployment actually dropped last quarter. All told, there are 111,000 unemployed - 15,000 fewer than when the government took office. But before anyone thinks that the pandemic hasn't put people out of work, remember that this is for ...
Judy KavanaghI’m OK with wearing a CovidCard. But are you? There’s no point me doing it alone.The author modelling a (fake) CovidCard. I didn’t know much about the CovidCard proposal until I read Dave’s latest blog post. You would wear the card visibly on your person. It ...
Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nzWhy can’t I use the battery from my electric car ...
As many good things come in threes (as the saying goes), we are happy to announce a third partnership between Skeptical Science and other websites. Fakebook.eco in Brazil is joining Klimafakten.de in Germany and Nauka o Klimacie in Poland to leverage translated rebuttal material and to make the information readily available in other ...
This interview on RNZ with Ross Tucker, the scientist who headed a review of transgender athletes playing in women’s rugby, discusses the findings of the review and what it means for women in sports. The review that World Rugby undertook had a broad range of independent experts and included a ...
Siouxsie WilesThe restrictions in place for metropolitan Melbourne now are in some ways stricter than those that were in force during New Zealand’s COVID-19 lockdown. A curfew is in place and most people have to wear masks when they leave their home – neither of which happened in New ...
On Friday the Hit and Run inquiry delivered a devastating report which found that NZDF had systematically misled Ministers over civilian deaths. The report called into question civilian control of the military (and indeed, military control of the military), a fundamental principle of our democracy. So you'd expect our politicians ...
Let's Do This Again: What else can Jacinda do in a political environment so bereft of imagination and courage but seek a continuance? If she trades upon the extraordinary personal qualities that she has, miraculously, carried with her into the office of Prime Minister, then I, for one, will offer ...
How corrupt are the New Zealand Police? This corrupt: On 10 February 2019, Police attended a family harm incident. The suspect attempted to run the attending officers over in a driveway with his car, narrowly missing them, before fleeing the scene. A short pursuit followed, ending when the suspect stopped ...
Parliament's triennial Review of Standing Orders was released today, and it contains a number of welcome, if minor, improvements. The ones that caught my are: A move to encourage "pre-legislative engagement" - the government consulting widely on legislation before it is introduced - by promising easier passage (e.g. with ...
Lauren Vargo, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonGlaciers around the world are melting — and for the first time, we can now directly attribute annual ice loss to climate change. We analysed two years in which glaciers in New Zealand melted the most in at least four ...
Caroline Shaw, Anja MizdrakE-bikes are everywhere. Sales are booming and predicted to overtake sales of new cars in a few years. There were three times as many e-bikes and e-scooters imported into NZ in 2019 alone as there are e-cars in the entire country. You can’t go out in ...
New Zealand First is facing a difficult struggle to get re-elected, but Josh Van Veen, who was once a researcher for Winston Peters, argues that there is still a very significant section of cultural conservatives who oppose mass immigration and political correctness and might yet be won back over to ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk Many Americans these days seem unable to avoid controversy on practically any topic, so why not embrace the discord and wade into the especially volatile arena of nuclear energy? Advocates claim it’s the only way to meet global climate goals, ...
Can we trust New Zealand’s military? There must now be serious doubt, given the landmark report released on Friday concluding the investigation into allegations made in the book Hit and Run by Nicky Hager and Jon Stephenson about a 2010 SAS killing raid in Afghanistan. The most recent Colmar Brunton ...
In New Zealand, we've just had the report of the Hit and Run inquiry, which found that a New Zealand led raid had accidentally killed civilians, including a child. meanwhile, around the same time, the British SAS was conducting its own raids in Afghanistan, and theirs were a hell of ...
In addition to establishing a process for setting emissions reductions plans, the Zero Carbon Act established a process for managing the risks of climate change. The first part of this is the preparation of regular risk assessments, looking at the risks to our economy, society, environment, and ecology. The first ...
Over on The spinoff, Amnesty International's Meg de Ronde has a response to Friday's release of the Hit and Run report. And in response to Attorney-General David Parker's claim that the government was being "transparent" by releasing the report, its titled "we shouldn’t have to work this hard to get ...
Story of the Week... Opinion of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review... Story of the Week... Rising Seas Could Menace Millions Beyond Shorelines, Study FindsAs climate change raises sea levels, storm surges and high tides will ...
There's an election next month, so you'd be expecting political parties to be telling us what they stand for and what they'd do if they'd win. But while the Greens have given us a detailed policy platform, and National has talked about roads and austerity, Labour, currently leading the polls ...
"Who's youse accusin' of innference?" Without the timely intervention of a team of top American political consultants and campaign experts, Boris Yeltsin would never have won his second term as President of the Russian Federation. The Russians waited 20 years to return the favour.WHEN IT COMES to the disinformation game, ...
As polling day in the American presidential election draws closer, things are looking bad for Donald Trump. The polls show that he is tracking well behind his Democrat rival. Most people assume that the President will be striving might and main to avoid what looks increasingly likely to be a ...
Our health professionals do an amazing job. Image credit: Wikipedia – Cardiac surgery. Finally, I have got back to these rankings. A long period in hospital and computer problems meant the June 2020 rankings were abandoned. Now, with a new personal defibrillator implanted in my chest and a new hard ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, July 26 through Sat, Aug 1, 2020Editor's ChoiceThe four types of climate denier, and why you should ignore them allThe shill, the grifter, the egomaniac and the ideological ...
Over the last few days, reports have emerged of people travelling from New Zealand and testing positive for Covid-19 upon arrival at their destination. First in South Korea and now in Australia. What might these positive tests mean?They’re false-positives As Toby Morris and I have explained before, there are ...
Former National Minister - Wayne MappYou could tell that the Hit and Run book by investigative journalists Nicky Hager and Jon Stephenson was right on the money by the way former National Party Minister of Defence, Wayne Mapp, reacted to its now largely vindicated claims.Even though the recent inquiry into ...
So, the Hit and Run inquiry has reported back, and found some appalling shit at NZDF and NZSIS. And while they quibble a few of the details - the name of a dead child - they basicly uphold Hager and Stephenson's version of events. The SAS went to those villages. ...
We are failing to think though the interdependencies in an economy. We miss economist Bryan Philpott (1921-2000). I miss him personally – we used to have such great discussions – but this column is about how the nation misses his economic experience and wisdom. We tend to ...
Michelle Boag - LeakerThe Heron report (PDF) was released yesterday, and it was a bit disappointing to say the least. It correctly found that former National Party president Michelle Boag and National Party MP Hamish Walker were politically motivated in leaking peoples private medical information, but didn’t look further into ...
Adam Smith, Massey UniversityA recent global assessment of shark populations at 371 coral reefs in 58 countries found no sharks at almost 20% of reefs and alarmingly low numbers at many others. The study, which involved over 100 scientists under the Global FinPrint project, gave New Zealand a good ...
On different trajectories and from different ends of the political spectrum, last night’s One News/Colmar Brunton poll has the Green Party and ACT converging around the five percent mark. And, as odd as it may sound, they head into the election campaign with a lot in common.Putting the Greens and ...
Janet Stephenson, University of OtagoA proposed multibillion-dollar project to build a pumped hydro storage plant could make New Zealand’s electricity grid 100% renewable, but expensive new infrastructure may not be the best way to achieve this. New Zealand’s electricity generation is already around 80% renewable, with just over half ...
Truth In Advertising: Labour, it would seem, is the party that knows nothing about running the economy right up until the moment that it does. HOW DID LABOUR acquire its reputation for being a poor economic manager? As with most things political and historical, it’s a long story.In the beginning, the ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Government rulemakers looking to decide how much money to spend to avoid adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere need a good estimate of what a warming climate will cost in social damages, for example through more extreme weather events. That point makes ...
Below is the list of gender-critical material which appeared on Redline from October 1, 2019 to October 31, 2019. Rainbow Tick threatens to pull Massey’s tick if lesbians are allowed to speak Freer Lives – a gender-critical Marxist site Freer Lives on Violence, debate and Britain’s Gender Recognition Act British ...
Fact Check: New Zealand’s own relationship with China might, however, be salvageable if our own Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade was willing to equip its minister, Winston Peters, with a few facts. Legislating for the protection of national security – the very action our Foreign Minister is decrying – ...
I hope we can all agree that charging only certain returning expats for isolation costs is the right call. Instead of a blanket fee, which may have resulted in a small number of Kiwis deciding not to return home because of financial reasons, the Government has chosen to implement a ...
Back at the beginning of this government, the Greens made a foolish decision to support the Electoral Integrity Act - demanded by Winston Peters to keep his own backbench in line as part of his coalition deal with Labour - as an act of good faith within the coalition. It ...
SATURDAY AUGUST 1Artefact (Prime, 7.30pm). The series presented by Dame Anne Salmond screened on Māori Television, but is totally worth revisiting if you saw it the first time. Dame Anne tells the stories of taonga that highlight the history of Aotearoa. Further reading: this 2013 interview with Dame Anne by the lovely ...
Have unions and the Government sold workers short with their attempt at fixing the so-called “Hobbit Law”? Unionist Ian Powell argues that the union movement has been outmanoeuvered, and the Government has agreed to a new piece of anti-worker legislation that retains the principles of the previous National Government’s hated ...
Most of the claims made by anti-fluoride propagandists are simply wrong. Image source:Fluoridation and the ‘sciency’ facts of critics Anti-fluoride propagandists continually cite studies from areas of endemic fluorosis in their arguments against ...
An article in the EETimes suggests that advances in autonomous vehicles are not moving as quickly as expected because those working on them have confused complicated problems with complex ones. Engineering can only take you so far in complex worlds. Complicated systems tend to have fairly predictable inputs, processes and outputs. Complex systems (like ...
Last week, after Judith Collins announced that National would be cruel and vicious to kiwis caught overseas by the pandemic, and rob them at the border if they returned home, Labour looked like it was falling all over itself to cry "me too". But now, it looks like kindness has ...
We've announced that we will expand the Flexi-wage programme to support up to 40,000 more people into work, or to help them start their own business. It's yet another way we're helping keep our economy moving by getting people into work and training. Read on to find out more ...
Business subsidy of on average $7500, and up to $22,000, to hire unemployed New ZealandersUp to 40,000 jobs to be supported by $311 million investment in keeping New Zealanders off the unemployment benefitRing-fenced fund to help unemployed start their own business ...
This week was the last of the 52nd Parliament: a major milestone for our Government and a great opportunity to look back at all the progress we've made for New Zealanders. This week, we increased support for businesses to take on apprentices, improved access to hospital care in Northland, and ...
Kia orana and kia ora koutou katoa. It is a privilege to be able to speak in this adjournment debate and to mark and acknowledge the fact that we are now two years and 10 months into the conclusion of a parliamentary term that has been extraordinary in so many ...
On 1 August, we marked the anniversary of Jacinda Ardern becoming the Leader of the Labour Party. On that day in 2017, Leader Andrew Little nominated Jacinda Ardern to succeed him and lead the party to victory.Now, three years on, we look back at some of the key moments ...
With the June 2020 quarter showing underemployment increasing, the Green Party is calling for a Guaranteed Minimum Income and an increase to the abatement threshold to ensure everyone has a dignified income. ...
We went hard and we went early in our health response to COVID-19, and we did everything we could to cushion the economic impact too. In fact, we can fill every letter of the alphabet with the steps we took to fight COVID-19 and ensure we were in a position ...
Investing in our people, backing businesses, and upgrading infrastructure and housing throughout the country - it's been another week of progress for New Zealanders as we deliver our plan to recover and rebuild. ...
July was another busy month, packed with key investments aimed at progressing our economic recovery as we rebuild New Zealand. We extended support for businesses, helped create jobs through local infrastructure projects, and kept working to clean up our waterways so Kiwis can access safe clean water. Check out the ...
The Green Party is calling for the Defence Force Chiefs in place between 2010-2017 to front up and explain how dishonesty, process and policy failures within the Defence Force led to ‘a series of incorrect statements in briefings to ministers and public releases’ regarding alleged breaches of international torture prevention ...
Thanks to our strong health response, New Zealand’s economy is more open than many other countries. But as COVID continues to surge around the world, the economic consequences of the virus will continue to be a challenge, which is why we have a detailed plan to help New Zealand bounce ...
Thanks to our strong health response, New Zealand’s economy is more open than many other countries. But as COVID continues to surge around the world, the economic consequences of the virus will continue to be a challenge, which is why we have a detailed plan to help New Zealand bounce ...
The Government is stepping up action to deal with environmentally harmful products – including plastic packaging, tyres and e-waste – before they become waste. ...
The Green Party are ensuring that New Zealanders who were overseas when COVID-19 hit will not be charged for the cost of isolation or quarantine if they return home to live. ...
It's been another week of creating jobs, supporting local businesses, and investing in infrastructure up and down the country - all of which are helping to keep our economy moving post-COVID-19. ...
Law changes to end tenure review and provide for better management of Crown pastoral lands in the South Island high country were considered by Parliament today with the first reading of the Crown Pastoral Land Reform Bill says Minister for Land Information, Eugenie Sage. ...
The Green Party have secured legislative amendments in a bill expected to pass third reading this week, to ensure better rules for school teachers and staff, so they can de-escalate children with diverse needs and cognitive differences, such as autism, rather than using unnecessary and often traumatising force. ...
New Zealand needs to be more aggressive in pursuing economic opportunities and resist the short-term thinking affecting some of its major industry, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters says.Mr Peters told Wellington Chamber of Commerce members this morning that the planned closure of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter will have ...
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has ridiculed the National Party "circus", with the politician saying it was in "chaos" after the resignation of another MP.Rangitata MP Andrew Falloon announced on Monday he would retire from politics after he allegedly sent inappropriate pornographic images to a young woman. Following a ...
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters today outlined what he saw as the requirements to re-open New Zealand's borders for tourists and travellers. If New Zealand was dealing solely with an Australian state such as Tasmania, we wouldn't need a vaccine, said Mr Peters, but these moves were complicated by the ...
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters appears to have prompted last-minute alterations to proposed legislation for commercial landlords and their tenants. Mr Peters told reporters on Wednesday said that he was making sure the proposed bill was in step with what the parties had actually agreed to. He said he ...
Associate Minister for State Owned Enterprise and New Zealand First List MP Shane Jones attended the groundbreaking ceremony for the new NZ Post "super depot" in Wellington. The state-owned postal service, which got $280 million from the Coalition Government last month, is expanding its operations to handle surging parcel volumes. ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, Leader of New Zealand First CHECK AGAINST DELIVERYIntroduction Good afternoon. Welcome to you all here today and party supporters watching from around the country. We appreciate your hard work keeping New Zealand First strong; thank you for keeping the faith. Sixty-three days out from Election Day, ...
The diversity of conservation boards around Aotearoa is increasing with 47 appointments to 14 of the 15 conservation boards across New Zealand announced today by the Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage. ...
A pest free Banks Peninsula/Te Pātaka o Rākaihautū is one step closer with a $5.11 million boost to accelerate this project and create jobs, announced Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage in Canterbury today. “This is a game changer for this ambitious project to restore the native wildlife and plants on Ōtautahi/Christchurch’s doorstep ...
A Government grant of $6.4 million will expand the Pettigrew Arena in Taradale with new indoor courts of national standard. “The project is likely to take 18 months with approximately 300 people employed through the process,” Grant Robertson said. “The expansion will increase the indoor court space up to 11 ...
The Far North tourist destination of Mangonui is to receive Government funding to improve waterfront infrastructure, open up access to the harbour and improve water quality, Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones has announced. A total of $6.5 million from the $3 billion set aside in the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund ...
The Government has re-affirmed its commitment to supporting the hosting of the ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup, which the ICC has delayed from 2021 to 2022. “This is obviously a disappointing decision for cricket players and fans around the world and for the White Ferns and their supporters here at ...
Cyclists and walkers will now have a safer way to get around Taupō, Tūrangi, and between Hamilton and Cambridge, with funding for shared paths and Te Awa River Ride, Associate Minister of Transport Julie Anne Genter announced today. “The Te Awa River Ride is the latest part of massive growth ...
Six major cycle routes will be completed in Christchurch thanks to funding from the Government’s investment in shovel-ready infrastructure as part of the COVID-19 recovery Associate Minister of Transport Julie Anne Genter announced today. $125 million will be invested to kick-start construction and fund the completion of the following cycleway ...
Plans are underway for a brand new state-of-the-art hub for Whanganui’s justice and social agencies, following confirmation the ageing Whanganui Central Police Station is to be replaced. Police Minister Stuart Nash has announced $25 million in new infrastructure spending to improve facilities for the wider community, and for staff who ...
An adjustment payment has been made to Waikato-Tainui and Ngāi Tahu under the relativity mechanisms in their 1995 and 1997 Treaty of Waitangi settlements, Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Andrew Little announced today. The latest payments to Waikato-Tainui and Ngāi Tahu are $2,700,000 and $2,600,000 respectively to ensure the ...
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Transport Minister Phil Twyford today kicked off the start of the Auckland NZ Upgrade Programme rail projects which will support over 400 jobs and help unlock our biggest city. Both ministers marked the start of enabling works on the third main rail line project ...
The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) investment of $3.78 million in Wairoa will create much needed economic stimulus and jobs, Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. PGF projects announced today include: $200,000 loan to Nuhaka Kiwifruit Holdings Ltd (operated by Pine Valley Orchard Ltd) to increase the productivity ...
Tenants in public and Māori housing may be benefiting from their own affordable renewable energy in future – a fund to trial renewable energy technology for public and Māori housing has today been announced by Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods and Associate Minister for Housing (Māori Housing) Nanaia Mahuta. ...
Hokianga will receive $2.7 million to redevelop four of its wharves and upgrade its water supply, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has announced. Far North District Council will receive $1.8 million from the Provincial Growth Fund for the work on the wharves. “The work will include the construction of ...
A $350 million Residential Development Response Fund is being established to support the residential construction sector and to minimise the economic impact from COVID-19, the Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods has announced. “The Residential Development Response Fund will help to progress stalled or at-risk developments that support our broader housing ...
As part of a broader plan to divert waste from landfill, the Government today announced $10.67 million for new infrastructure as part of the Resource Recovery Network across the Auckland region. “This key investment in Auckland’s community recycling network is part of the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group ‘shovel ready’ projects ...
The Government is investing $45 million in the first stage of an ambitious urban development project for Tauranga that will employ up to 250 people and help the region grow, Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford announced today. Phil Twyford says the funding has been allocated out of the $3 billion ...
Getting low-emission trucks on the road is a step closer with investment in infrastructure to support hydrogen vehicles, the Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods has announced. The Infrastructure Reference Group has provisionally approved $20 million for New Plymouth company Hiringa Energy to establish a nationwide network of hydrogen-fuelling stations. ...
A new trades training centre to upskill the local workforce will be built in the South Waikato town of Tokoroa through funding from the Government’s COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund, Education Minister Chris Hipkins and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones have announced. The Government will contribute $10.84 million from ...
The Government has agreed to repeal part of the Oranga Tamariki Act subsequent children provisions, Minister for Children Tracey Martin announced today. “There are times when children need to go into care for their safety – the safety and care of children must always be paramount,” Minister Martin said. “But ...
A $1.5 million boost to grow primary mental health and addiction services for Pacific peoples in Auckland, Hamilton and Canterbury will lead to better outcomes for Pacific communities, Associate Health Minister Jenny Salesa says. Pasifika Futures has received funding to expand services through The Fono, Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest by ...
Twenty-two projects to boost the sustainability and climate resilience of New Zealand’s food and fibres sector have been announced today by Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. The $18m funding will deliver practical knowledge to help farmers and growers use their land more sustainably, meet environmental targets, remain prosperous, and better understand ...
Employment Minister Willie Jackson welcomes an initiative that assists employers to get mature workers into New Zealand small businesses. The disadvantages that older people face in the workplace was highlighted in the whole of Government Employment Strategy. In order to address this, a Mature Workers Toolkit has been developed and ...
New Zealand and Australia reaffirmed today the need for the closest possible collaboration as they tackle a global environment shaped by COVID-19, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said. “In these challenging times, our close collaboration with Australia is more vital than ever,” said Mr Peters. Mr Peters and his Australian ...
The recovery and forensic examination of the loader driven by survivor Russell Smith means the underground team are now moving into an area of the Pike River Mine that has not been seen since the explosion, Minister Responsible for Pike River Re-entry Andrew Little said. “The fifth and last robot ...
The Government has confirmed a community-wide trial of CovidCard technology as it explores options for COVID-19 contact tracing. “Effective contact tracing is a vital part of the COVID-19 response,” Minister of Health Chris Hipkins said. “While manual processes remain the critical component for contact tracing, we know digital solutions can ...
The government is proposing changes to aquaculture legislation to improve the process for allocating and transferring aquaculture assets to iwi. Fisheries Minister Stuart Nash has introduced the Maori Commercial Aquaculture Claims Settlement Amendment Bill to Parliament. It proposes a limited new discretionary power for Te Ohu Kaimoana Trustee Limited (ToKM). ...
The Minister of Justice has today introduced the Family Court (Supporting Children in Court) Legislation Bill – the next step in the ongoing programme of work to fix the failed 2014 Family Court reforms led by then Justice Minister Judith Collins. The Bill arises from the report of the Independent ...
A new Department of Conservation (DOC) action plan tackles the impacts of climate change on New Zealand’s biodiversity and DOC managed infrastructure including tracks, huts and cultural heritage. Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage says extreme weather events around the country have really brought home our vulnerability to changing weather patterns. ...
A heavily scaled back international Antarctic season will commence this week, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods have confirmed. “Antarctica is the only continent that is COVID-19 free,” Mr Peters said. “Throughout the global pandemic, essential operations and long-term science have continued at ...
The Government is providing up to $30 million to help fund the NZ Campus of Innovation and Sport in Upper Hutt - an investment that will create 244 jobs. “The sports hub is designed to be a world-leading shared service for a range of sports, offering the level of facilities ...
Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today transport projects currently in construction will continue at pace due to extra Government support for transport projects to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. To keep the $16.9 billion 2018-21 National Land Transport Programme going the Government has allocated funding from the COVID Response and ...
$50 million for further rural broadband digital connectivity has been allocated from the $3 billion infrastructure fund in the COVID Response and Recovery Fund has been announced by Shane Jones, Minister for Infrastructure and Kris Faafoi, Minister for Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media. The investment will go to boosting broadband ...
The Minister for Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media has congratulated the Ultra-fast Broadband (UFB) programme on its major milestone of connecting more than 1 million New Zealand households and businesses to UFB. “This milestone has been 10 years in the making and demonstrates the popularity of the UFB network. “Uptake ...
Landmark legislation passed today puts New Zealand on track to saving thousands of lives and having a smokefree generation sooner rather than later, Associate Health Minister, Jenny Salesa says. The Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Vaping) Amendment Bill regulates vaping products and heated tobacco devices. “There has long been concern ...
A discriminatory law that has been a symbol of frustration for many people needing and providing care and support, has been scrapped by the Government. “Part 4A of the New Zealand Public Health and Disability Amendment Bill (No 2) was introduced under urgency in 2013 by a National Government,” Associate ...
Kiwi motorists are set to reap the benefits of a more competitive fuel market following the passing of the Fuel Industry Bill tonight, Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods says. “This Act is where the rubber meets the road in terms of our response to the recommendations made in the ...
The Government has delivered on its promise to New Zealanders to modernise tenancy laws with the passing of the Residential Tenancies Amendment (RTA) Bill 2020 today, says Associate Minister of Housing (Public Housing), Kris Faafoi. “The Residential Tenancies Act 1986 was out-dated and the reforms in the RTA modernise our ...
New rules to protect and restore New Zealand’s freshwater passed into law today. Environment Minister David Parker and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor welcomed the gazetting of the new national direction on freshwater management. “These regulations deliver on the Government’s commitment to stop further degradation, show material improvements within five years and ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced the appointment of Jeremy Clarke-Watson as New Zealand’s new Consul-General in Los Angeles. “New Zealand and the United States share a close and dynamic partnership, based on a long history of shared values and democratic traditions,” Mr Peters said. “Mr Clarke-Watson is a ...
Victims of family violence can end a tenancy with two days’ notice Landlords can terminate tenancies with 14 days’ notice if tenants assault them Timeframe brought forward for limiting rent increases to once every 12 months Extension of time Tenancy Tribunal can hear cases via phone/video conference Reform of New ...
Two employment schemes – one new and one expanded – going live today will help tens of thousands of people continue training on the job and support thousands more into work, the Government has announced. Apprenticeship Boost, a subsidy of up to $12,000 per annum for first year apprentices and ...
The Green’s latest housing policy is a lot of wishful thinking, National’s Housing spokesperson Jacqui Dean says. “Blue-sky thinking has never been the Green’s problem, but delivery has. “The Government partners talked a big game on housing ...
Studying a Bachelor of Arts at AUT helped Guled Mire understand his place in the world, so that he can make a difference in his community. Video: AUTBy Simon SmithGuled Mire says his new Fulbright NZ scholarship to study at an Ivy League university in the United States ...
Kia ora everyone. Thank you all for coming here today. Thank you to the community for having us today, I’m proud that this is my neighbourhood! And thank you to the Housing Foundation for having us, as we announce the next exciting pillar of ...
The Green Party has unveiled its housing plan which aims to get the record-high number of people off the social housing waiting list, while improving the size and quality of the rental market. ...
In its third major policy announcement, the Green Party has revealed a suite of plans to subsidise community-provided rental housing and boost the state housing build programme, Marc Daalder reports Amidst the Covid-19 pandemic and global economic meltdown, New Zealand's housing crisis has continued unabated. House prices are still surging and the ...
By Patrick Makis in Buka Contact tracing has begun for the Autonomous Region of Bougainville’s first covid-19 case. The 22-year-old male, who had returned from Port Moresby on an Air Niugini flight on July 29, is stable and is being isolated in Arawa town. ABG’s Deputy Controller, Health Secretary Clement ...
The Race Relations Commissioner Meng Foon wants New Zealanders to amplify the resilience of Māori whānau and communities on the International Day of Indigenous Peoples on Sunday 9th of August. The theme for the day is ‘COVID-19 and Indigenous Peoples’ ...
A small proportion of Covid-19 patients continue experiencing symptoms long after they test negative. Freya Sawbridge, one such ‘Covid long hauler’, describes what it’s like.Four months have passed and I’m onto my fifth relapse. The room is eerily still yet my mind spins like the stripes of a barber’s pole. ...
A new poll shows New Zealand First list MP Shane Jones coming third in the contest for the Northland seat that's being seen as crucial to his party's chances of staying in Parliament. ...
A poll in the electorate seat of Northland shows New Zealand First could be out of Parliament altogether after the election Shane Jones has a big hill to climb if he wants to take Northland and secure NZ First's position in parliament. National Party candidate Matt King is well ahead of ...
Christchurch writer Chris Stuart spent decades toggling between high-stakes overseas aid work and the strange safety of home. Out of that has emerged a crime novel: For Reasons of Their Own. I used to always tell people that when you work in war zones and disasters, you are only ever a ...
Welcome to Election Live for August 9, bringing you the latest on election 2020 and other breaking news. For key dates in the election seasonclick here. For all you need to know about the cannabis referendum click here. For the assisted dying referendum click here. 7.15am: Labour tax policy coming ...
New Zealand's unofficial poet laureate Victor Billot pens topical verse every Sunday. This week: the rotten egg laid by the outgoing coalition governmentLet’s keep moving I was sitting in my cheap motel room next to the window, smelling petrol fumes when on the TV came a lady in red ...
She’s Cheryl West, she’s Ellen Crozier, she’s the woman who makes headlines for throwaway jokes online. Sam Brooks talks to Robyn Malcolm, actor and activist.There’s nothing more compelling on a New Zealand screen than Robyn Malcolm wanting something. Whether it’s Cheryl West trying to get a lingerie business off the ...
The Labour leader returned yesterday to the Auckland Town Hall, where she was last seen riding the Jacindamania wave towards government. Toby Manhire went along to see how this campaign launch compared to the 2017 edition.A lot was the same. The big wash of red light bouncing off the Town ...
REVIEW: JACINDAMANIA: THE SEQUELWritten, directed and starring: Jacinda ArdernGenre: Political love story Classification: General ReleaseRunning Time: Six weeksShowing: NationwideRating: * * * * starsReviewer: Tim Murphy We've waited three years but the sequel to the 2017 blockbuster Jacindamania has finally arrived, debuting Saturday at the ...
Judith Collins is still shy of a month into the job but in her media blitz she and her arched eyebrows are everywhere, along with the party slogan "Strong team, More Jobs, Better Economy". ...
New Zealand First is pleased to announce the next tranche of candidates that will represent our values and spread our message across the country at this year’s election. We thank these hardworking New Zealanders for putting their hand up to take on the ...
A high-ranking Chinese candidate promoted over more than a dozen incumbent MPs is the biggest surprise in an otherwise orthodox National Party list for the 2020 election, as Sam Sachdeva reports The National Party has released its list rankings for the 2020 election, with the ascent of new candidate Nancy ...
The National Party is pleased to announce the appointment of Nancy Lu to the National Party’s List for the 2020 General Election, President Peter Goodfellow says. “Nancy Lu is a Chartered Accountant with a background in accounting and business working ...
Headline: A crisis of governance. – 36th Parallel Assessments [embedded content] The Port of Beirut warehouse explosion, involving 2.7 kilotons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate negligently stored in an unsecured area, crystalizes in one national tragedy a much wider trend: the crisis and decline of democratic governance world-wide.For a ...
National’s 2020 Party List is a strong mix of experience coming up through our Caucus, and new and exciting talent joining our team from communities across New Zealand, Party President Peter Goodfellow says. “The National Party is incredibly ...
Latest from the Beehive – It looked (at first blush) like Christchurch would gobble up around half the money earmarked by the government for projects to get us on our bikes. Julie Anne Genter, Associate Minister of Transport and a Green with a fondness for two-wheeled, pedal-driven transport, today banged ...
The suggestion of putting border exemptions up for auction so large companies can bring in overseas executives and key workers is naïve and totally unfair,” says Ms June Ranson, chair of the New Zealand Association of Migration and Investment ...
Looking for a wonderfully trashy movie to watch? TVNZ OnDemand now have some of Lifetime’s best dramas for your viewing pleasure. In a world of serious and credible television, the arrival of Lifetime to TVNZ OnDemand is joyous news. Lifetime is an American cable channel that churns out emotional drama after emotional drama, ...
The introduction of a $3,100 fee for returning New Zealanders will disadvantage Māori disproportionately, Phoebe Carr (Ngāti Awa, Ngāi Tūhoe)and Max Harris argue.The government has once again failed to honour Te Tiriti o Waitangi by rushing through legislation to introduce exorbitant managed isolation fees for returning New Zealanders. This ...
7 August 2020: The Team of Six Million, a campaign group established to oppose the imposition of quarantine fees by the New Zealand Government, has expressed disappointment at the Government's urgent passing of the Public Health Response Amendment Bill to ...
In July support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 53.5% down 1% since June, but still more than double the support for National on 26.5%, down 0.5%, with just over a month to go before the election in mid-September. If ...
Welcome to Election Live for August 7, bringing you the latest on election 2020 and other breaking news. For key dates in the election season click here. For all you need to know about the cannabis referendum click here. For the assisted dying referendum click here. Policy launching soon. Get in touch ...
After initial concerns about low testing rates in South Auckland, Counties Manukau DHB has the second-highest testing rate in the country. Ōtara Health chief executive Sosefina Paletaoga explains her organisation’s role in achieving this. Covid-19 has affected us all in different ways, and for us in Ōtara, it has highlighted existing ...
Oranga Tamariki's Chief Executive appeared before the Waitangi Tribunal a day after a report from the Chief Ombudsman found the agency had used its draconian powers to uplift babies too readily in many cases A Waitangi Tribunal hearing has seen Oranga Tamariki chief executive Gráinne Moss concede her organisation harmed families during ...
"A resident of the boarding house disappeared the same day Mrs Bethany’s body was discovered": provincial gothic, with astrology, by Auckland writer Mandy McMullin. I moved into the tearooms the day I turned sixteen, 23 December 2006. The same day I met Garth. It was Saturday, a lucky day for ...
The resignation of Westland Milk Products chief executive Tony Brendish almost a year to the day the company was sold to Chinese conglomerate Yili makes a mockery of assurances that there was no conflict of interest in top management preparing ...
*Watch the video in the player below*The wheels of progress turn frustratingly slow in Christchurch’s Red Zone. Frank Film asks, is anything going to happen? Hayley Guglietta is honest about her group’s activities on vacant land bordering Christchurch’s Avon River. She admits the groundwork was commenced without official ...
On this week's Extra Time podcast: After significant investigations into cycling, football and hockey in New Zealand, now gymnastics is in the spotlight around their athletes' welfare. Allegations of multiple New Zealand gymnasts suffering from verbal and physical abuse, bullying and unsafe training methods have surfaced over the past week. And ...
She’s a lone wolf, a team player, a rebel, a leader and the nicest lady around. But what combination of those do you need to survive in government?On a cold July morning, I found myself driving around Totara Park in Manurewa in the dark. I had been invited to a ...
All around the country, people are asking ‘what’s going to happen in the 2020 general election campaign?’ That’s because they haven’t read this guide, which reveals exactly what will happen in the 2020 general election campaign.Someone has finally put this term of parliament out of its misery. We’ve had three ...
The UK car industry has run a good race in the post-Brexit lobbying stakes. But Britain’s chemical industry looks to be making a late run, if recent coverage in the Financial Times is accurate.The issue for the industry is the post-Brexit regulatory regime and how this is to be ...
Latest from the Beehive – We had just finished digesting an outpouring of announcements from the Beehive over the previous 24 hours or so when the Point of Order Trough Monitor shrieked an alert. A new trough had been established. While we were inspecting the contents of this new trough, ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Chart 1, Historical: Australian much lower than Spain, Belgium and Sweden. Chart by Keith Rankin. The known incidences of Covid19 in Spain, Belgium and Sweden are similar, although Sweden lagged for a while before overtaking the other two. In deaths, Sweden is slightly lower than ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The good news in the Reserve Bank’s latest quarterly set of forecasts is that the recession won’t be as steep as it thought last time. The bad news is it ...
Analysis: National entices voters with big infrastructure projects, Judith Collins rips into Jacinda Ardern and Parliament passes a bill that could affect every tenant in the country. ...
By RNZ Pacific France’s new overseas minister Sebastien Lecornu says New Caledonia’s restrictions over the covid-19 pandemic will not affect the preparations for the October referendum on independence. Lecornu gave the assessment during a visit to New Caledonia House in Paris. Paris is expected to send dozens of officials and ...
Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairoa descendants are overjoyed they can do up their wharenui, while also attracting their rangatahi back to their marae, with more than $1.5 million from the Provincial Growth Fund. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julian Meyrick, Professor of Creative Arts, Griffith University National crises, like the pandemics that can provoke them, come in stages. Each stage presents leaders with unique problems that require mental, moral and emotional agility to manage. Change is the only constant, as ...
How is New Zealand faring in during the Covid-19 pandemic? Newsroom is taking a weekly look at the latest numbers related to the virus and the impact on the economy.Excess deaths Overseas the death toll in some countries has risen sharply, with the ...
Justice campaign organisation JustSpeak has outlined a vision for a society without prisons in its 2020 election campaign ‘ Our Justice Our Future ’. The campaign was launched last night in Wellington, to a sold out audience of supporters and volunteers. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vasso Apostolopoulos, Pro Vice-Chancellor, Research Partnerships, Victoria University During the COVID-19 pandemic we’re constantly being reminded to practise good hygiene by frequently washing our hands and regularly cleaning the spaces where we live and work. These practices aim to remove or kill ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher discuss the week in politics. This week Michelle and Caroline discuss the closure of ‘non-essential’ businesses in Melbourne under stage ...
Labour's campaign slogan "Let's Keep Moving" is hardly the most inspirational but reflects the conservative game plan - trade on the Covid response and stay on track. ...
By granting a permit to OceanaGold to mine under DOC land in the Coromandel, the government is not only threatening an endangered species, says Catherine Delahunty – it’s threatening future generations.I woke up angry. The government has given a 40-year permit to OceanaGold to mine under DOC land behind Whangamatā. ...
How come, after numerous condemnatory reports, Oranga Tamariki chief executive Grainne Moss holds on to her job? Aaron Smale wonders if those harmed by her tenure aren't a big enough voting bloc So, what happens when a government department breaks the law and breaches its own policies? Nothing, apparently. The latest ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Communications and Media, University of Notre Dame Australia Review: The Meddler, screening at the Melbourne International Film Festival For movie scholars and enthusiasts, one of the worst things about the COVID-19 pandemic has been the shutting down of ...
The combination of solar panels, electricity storage batteries, smart household gadgets, and a boring looking black box is set to change forever how our electricity system works. But do we need subsidies? ...
The New Zealand Bar Assocation says misinformed criticism of a South Island judge’s sentencing of a sex offender has the potential for disturbing consequences for the justice system and society generally. The Bar Association’s President Kate Davenport ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Royal Commission into Aged-Care Quality and Safety delivered it’s interim report in October 2019. Titled ‘Neglect’, it provided a scathing insight into the aged care industry – finding it centred around transactions not care. ...
By Tom Peters, Socialist Equality Group More than one year after the March 15, 2019 terrorist attack, an official inquiry into the mass shooting that killed 51 people and injured 49 in two Christchurch mosques has still not released any information ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Damien Manuel, Director, Centre for Cyber Security Research & Innovation (CSRI), Deakin University Australia’s long-awaited cybersecurity strategy, released yesterday, pledges to spend A$1.67 billion over the next ten years to improve online protection for businesses, individuals and the country as a whole. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roxana Diamond, PhD Candidate, Flinders University This article has links that contain graphic content Many industries and employees have been hurt by COVID-19. But sex workers, who face stigma and discrimination at the best of times, have been hit particularly hard by ...
By Lulu Mark in Port Moresby Port Moresby may need to expand its covid-19 isolation facilities quickly and effectively in case a big spike in cases occurs, a doctor says. Rita Flynn isolation facility manager Dr Gary Nou said it would be a disaster if the spread of covid-19 in ...
Paige Tapara is a fast-rising young singer-songwriter whose debut EP explores themes of sexuality, coming of age, mental health and relationships. We asked her how it came together, and why she thinks it’s so important for NZ music to include voices like hers.Paige swoops into the room, a cream doughnut in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cathy Foley, Chief Scientist, CSIRO Universities and other research organisations in Australia have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. In May, a group led by Australia’s Chief Scientist Alan Finkel forecasted severe impacts for our research workforce. These included the loss ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Carnt, Scientia Senior Lecturer, School of Optometry and Vision Science, UNSW, Sydney, UNSW You’re rushing and accidentally drop a contact lens on the bathroom floor. Should you: a) run it under the tap and pop it in? b) spit on it ...
Open mike 28/10/2013 
Open mike is your post. For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy). Step right up to the mike…
Dr Sommer Kapitan, Auckland University of Technology, and Dr Patrick van Esch, Auckland University of Technology The Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products (Vaping) Amendment Bill will limit vape sales at dairies and service stations to only three flavours, and make vaping illegal in smokefree areas. Vaping laws will be more ...5 hours ago
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Aug 2, 2020 through Sat, Aug 8, 2020 Editor's Choice Five Years After Speaking Out on Climate Change, Pope Francis Sounds an Urgent Alarm The encyclical ‘Laudato Si’ motivated many people ...14 hours ago
...1 day ago
...1 day ago
From some quarters, incessant scaremongering. From others, it’s a full-on tilt into touching the alarmist buttons a little too readily (uncertain times make for very captive audiences with this angle of attack). The (so-called) Opposition (and merely regarding them as that seems to be a far looser term now ...1 day ago
National Party leader - Judith CollinsElections often bring out the best and worst in politicians. Some rise to the occasion and provide us with a clear vision for the future. While others wallow in resentment and controversy, over-relying on attack politics to try to attain the interest of voters.That’s been ...1 day ago
The attempts to sabotage Corbyn's leadership seems likely to do more damage than Corbyn supposedly ever could have done, even if all the stories about him were true: I was reluctant to say anything but this is too important, the full story needs to be told.Don’t let anyone ever tell ...1 day ago
Good day to everyone. I’ve been asked by Mr Thinks to come here and talk to you all about my concerns regarding the government response to Covid-19. We’ve been living through this pandemic for, what seems like, years. Years and years and years. Why else would the National Party have ...1 day ago
‘Good Economics for Hard Times’ should be on your reading list. New Zealand does not have a Minister of Labour. It has Ministers of Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety but there is no minister with responsibility for the labour market. That responsibility was abolished in 2012 when ...2 days ago
Back in the Kyoto era, the international climate change regime included a Clean Development Mechanism to fund emissions reduction projects in developing nations. Essentially someone would certify that a project - e.g. building a windfarm, or installing energy-efficient lightbulbs - would reduce emissions over and above "business-as-usual". The project would ...2 days ago
By Geoffrey Miller Prominent refugee advocate Murdoch Stephens says he is disappointed by Judith Collins’ reaction to Immigration New Zealand’s decision to grant refugee status to Kurdish-Iranian writer Behrouz Boochani. Judith Collins told media last month that “there’s a lot of concern in New Zealand about what they see as ...3 days ago
3 days ago
by Don Franks This talk was given to the Wellington Anti Capitalist Alliance, fifteen years ago. The ultimate weapons of mass destruction so far seen on this planet have been used just twice, 60 years ago this month. August 6 and August 9 1945 witnessed the US atomic bombing ...4 days ago
As polling day in the American presidential election draws closer, things are looking bad for Donald Trump. The polls show that he is tracking well behind his Democrat rival. Most people assume that the President will be striving might and main to avoid what looks increasingly likely to be a ...7 days ago
Our health professionals do an amazing job. Image credit: Wikipedia – Cardiac surgery. Finally, I have got back to these rankings. A long period in hospital and computer problems meant the June 2020 rankings were abandoned. Now, with a new personal defibrillator implanted in my chest and a new hard ...1 week ago
Below is the list of gender-critical material which appeared on Redline from October 1, 2019 to October 31, 2019. Rainbow Tick threatens to pull Massey’s tick if lesbians are allowed to speak Freer Lives – a gender-critical Marxist site Freer Lives on Violence, debate and Britain’s Gender Recognition Act British ...1 week ago
TUESDAY AUGUST 4Grand Designs UK (Three, 7.30pm). ...1 week ago
Most of the claims made by anti-fluoride propagandists are simply wrong. Image source: Fluoridation and the ‘sciency’ facts of critics Anti-fluoride propagandists continually cite studies from areas of endemic fluorosis in their arguments against ... 2 weeks ago
The Green Party has revealed its Homes for All Plan, which lays the foundation for an Aotearoa where everyone has a warm, dry and affordable home. ...6 hours ago
We've announced that we will expand the Flexi-wage programme to support up to 40,000 more people into work, or to help them start their own business. It's yet another way we're helping keep our economy moving by getting people into work and training. Read on to find out more ...1 day ago
New Zealand needs to be more aggressive in pursuing economic opportunities and resist the short-term thinking affecting some of its major industry, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters says. Mr Peters told Wellington Chamber of Commerce members this morning that the planned closure of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter will have ...3 weeks ago
A pest free Banks Peninsula/Te Pātaka o Rākaihautū is one step closer with a $5.11 million boost to accelerate this project and create jobs, announced Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage in Canterbury today. “This is a game changer for this ambitious project to restore the native wildlife and plants on Ōtautahi/Christchurch’s doorstep ...10 hours ago
The Green’s latest housing policy is a lot of wishful thinking, National’s Housing spokesperson Jacqui Dean says. “Blue-sky thinking has never been the Green’s problem, but delivery has. “The Government partners talked a big game on housing ...5 hours ago
Studying a Bachelor of Arts at AUT helped Guled Mire understand his place in the world, so that he can make a difference in his community. Video: AUT By Simon Smith Guled Mire says his new Fulbright NZ scholarship to study at an Ivy League university in the United States ...5 hours ago
The Green Party has unveiled its housing plan which aims to get the record-high number of people off the social housing waiting list, while improving the size and quality of the rental market. ...6 hours ago
In its third major policy announcement, the Green Party has revealed a suite of plans to subsidise community-provided rental housing and boost the state housing build programme, Marc Daalder reports Amidst the Covid-19 pandemic and global economic meltdown, New Zealand's housing crisis has continued unabated. House prices are still surging and the ...6 hours ago
A small proportion of Covid-19 patients continue experiencing symptoms long after they test negative. Freya Sawbridge, one such ‘Covid long hauler’, describes what it’s like.Four months have passed and I’m onto my fifth relapse. The room is eerily still yet my mind spins like the stripes of a barber’s pole. ...9 hours ago
A poll in the electorate seat of Northland shows New Zealand First could be out of Parliament altogether after the election Shane Jones has a big hill to climb if he wants to take Northland and secure NZ First's position in parliament. National Party candidate Matt King is well ahead of ...10 hours ago
New Zealand's unofficial poet laureate Victor Billot pens topical verse every Sunday. This week: the rotten egg laid by the outgoing coalition government Let’s keep moving I was sitting in my cheap motel room next to the window, smelling petrol fumes when on the TV came a lady in red ...14 hours ago
REVIEW: JACINDAMANIA: THE SEQUEL Written, directed and starring: Jacinda Ardern Genre: Political love story Classification: General Release Running Time: Six weeks Showing: Nationwide Rating: * * * * stars Reviewer: Tim Murphy We've waited three years but the sequel to the 2017 blockbuster Jacindamania has finally arrived, debuting Saturday at the ...23 hours ago
A high-ranking Chinese candidate promoted over more than a dozen incumbent MPs is the biggest surprise in an otherwise orthodox National Party list for the 2020 election, as Sam Sachdeva reports The National Party has released its list rankings for the 2020 election, with the ascent of new candidate Nancy ...1 day ago
Latest from the Beehive – It looked (at first blush) like Christchurch would gobble up around half the money earmarked by the government for projects to get us on our bikes. Julie Anne Genter, Associate Minister of Transport and a Green with a fondness for two-wheeled, pedal-driven transport, today banged ...1 day ago
Oranga Tamariki's Chief Executive appeared before the Waitangi Tribunal a day after a report from the Chief Ombudsman found the agency had used its draconian powers to uplift babies too readily in many cases A Waitangi Tribunal hearing has seen Oranga Tamariki chief executive Gráinne Moss concede her organisation harmed families during ...1 day ago
"A resident of the boarding house disappeared the same day Mrs Bethany’s body was discovered": provincial gothic, with astrology, by Auckland writer Mandy McMullin. I moved into the tearooms the day I turned sixteen, 23 December 2006. The same day I met Garth. It was Saturday, a lucky day for ...2 days ago
*Watch the video in the player below* The wheels of progress turn frustratingly slow in Christchurch’s Red Zone. Frank Film asks, is anything going to happen? Hayley Guglietta is honest about her group’s activities on vacant land bordering Christchurch’s Avon River. She admits the groundwork was commenced without official ...2 days ago
On this week's Extra Time podcast: After significant investigations into cycling, football and hockey in New Zealand, now gymnastics is in the spotlight around their athletes' welfare. Allegations of multiple New Zealand gymnasts suffering from verbal and physical abuse, bullying and unsafe training methods have surfaced over the past week. And ...2 days ago
The UK car industry has run a good race in the post-Brexit lobbying stakes. But Britain’s chemical industry looks to be making a late run, if recent coverage in the Financial Times is accurate. The issue for the industry is the post-Brexit regulatory regime and how this is to be ...2 days ago
How is New Zealand faring in during the Covid-19 pandemic? Newsroom is taking a weekly look at the latest numbers related to the virus and the impact on the economy. Excess deaths Overseas the death toll in some countries has risen sharply, with the ...2 days ago
How come, after numerous condemnatory reports, Oranga Tamariki chief executive Grainne Moss holds on to her job? Aaron Smale wonders if those harmed by her tenure aren't a big enough voting bloc So, what happens when a government department breaks the law and breaches its own policies? Nothing, apparently. The latest ...2 days ago
The combination of solar panels, electricity storage batteries, smart household gadgets, and a boring looking black box is set to change forever how our electricity system works. But do we need subsidies? ...2 days ago
Interesting new poll: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour
Personally, I struggle to believe National could get more than the 47.3% it won in 2011. Governments tend to lose votes over time. Having said that, National won only 44.9% in 2008 so John Key has already broken the rule once.
Umm, so what was the polling from Fairfax just before the 2011 election?
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2011/11/23/fairfax-research-international-poll-23-november-2011/
Oh yeah Fairfax had National at 54%. They got 47%. So they had about a 7% drop in how many days? Fluke?
So lets look at 2008?
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2008/11/07/fairfax-poll-november-2008/
National at 49% – but in the election they got 45%! 4% of their vote just disappeared
Basically the Fairfax poll has always massively overstated the National potential to win votes. I guess that is why you cling to it like a child wrapping themselves around their comfort blankie…
BBQ season in Wellington Central me thinks…
Well, exactly. The polls always seem to overstate National’s support. Although you are not comparing apples with apples. This poll was by Ipsos, the 2011 one was by Research International and the 2005 one by Nielson.
See my reply to Andrew
But you have just successfully made the case for ignoring Fairfax polls.
That three different companies have consistently managed to follow practices that massively overstate Nationals support tends to indicate that there may be a systematic bias from that source? It is a small sample but it certainly does indicate that to me…
It’s not just Fairfax though. All the main polls (Herald, Fairfax, TVNZ, TV3) have tended to overstate National’s support. It’s as if their sampling has some sort of inbuilt bias against the smaller parties. One thing’s for sure though the latest Roy Morgan with Nats on 41.5% (and no chance of forming a majority) and this Fairfax poll with Nats on 50% can’t both be right.
Something to keep in mind when making that comparison, is that pre-election poll was carried out by a different polling company. Ipsos started polling for Fairfax after the election.
I know. But if you look back in the record for fairfax polls you’ll find at least one other company doing their polls that I’m aware of. It never seems to make much difference to the overall outcome that the “Fairfax poll” gets. They massively overstate the right to suspicious extent. I suspect that the polling companies that Fairfax uses all operate by the maxim that the customer is always right(ish).
That plus their sporadic schedule means that they are essentially useless when divining the tea leaves for election results. Probably why Matthew dribbles on about them.
I prefer the much more frequent polling by Roy Morgan that isn’t done for any organisation with a hidden agenda. Despite the usual statistical variation and sampling biases, it is possible to see actual trends in that rather than the need for interesting headlines.
Good point about poll frequency.
I don’t think though that any polling company would let a client influence the results in any way, shape, or form. The interpretation maybe, but not the results themselves. If polling company did, they could be thrown out of the MRSNZ.
Given the expectation for how well Labour/Greens are doing at the moment, I suspect the people at Fairfax were a surprised by the result as people here are.
Excuse my typos. I’m not wearing my glasses and I’m using my iPad. A bad combination.
That is the daft thing. I wasn’t surprised. If you think of this thing narratively rather than statistically, then a completely different poll result that can spun as a reversal is one of those twists that makes for a good story.
All that has to be done is to pick a technique that may follow statistical practices, but does not accurately reflect the voting population.
For instance my favourite example is the way that using listed land line polling systematically overstates the right. Parts of Auckland have been down at or lower than 50% listed-land-lines per household against the electoral roll for nearly a decade. Whereas in other parts of the country are closer to 90% listed-land-line. Moreover apart from the urban/provincials split, in every region the poorer voters and the younger voters with a landline are distinctly more likely to not have a accessible land-line.
So guess what is the sampling technique that Fairfax pays for?
That’s some interesting data you cite there. Do you have a source?
I’m pretty sure none of the main polling companies survey only listed landlines. They use RDD, so every landline is given a chance of selection, including the unlisted ones.
Sampling from the electoral roll would be a silly idea for a phone survey, coz you would have to match with only listed numbers. That’s pretty daft for a political poll, as lists are biased in favour of home and vehicle owners.
Ah no. RDD is a bit of a myth. Even if you had the switch ranges, the number system gaps between exchanges mean that it is unlikely to be random. Without them in a 8 digit system covering less than 2 million households, your probabilities are low to even find a open number.
But more basically, try and find a person with unlisted numbers who has been called.
The electoral roll is the population that is attempted to be sampled in a political poll.
I think you should look into RDD a bit more. You simply ping them to test if they are connected.
As I said, matching the electoral roll with published phone listings results in a bias toward home and vehicle owners, and an extremely small response rate if you factor in all the people you can’t match.
RDD ain’t no myth. I use it myself, and we update it to cover all known number ranges.
Ha! I wrote this on my cell, but it didn’t show up initially, which is why there is a similar and better expressed post below. Apologies 🙂
This unlisted number has never been called.
I’d be extremely pissed off if I did get a call, with the caller likely to be called every bastard under the sun.
The whole point of having an unlisted number is to be selective in who you want to give your number to.
I have an unlisted number, and I have been called.
Did you ask how they got your number?
I hope no offence is taken by this, but I’m afraid you misunderstand the process of generating RDD sample.
Random numbers are generated within known number ranges. It’s not hard to work out the known number ranges from published listings. The random numbers are then pinged to find the connected numbers. There is a whole lot more to the process too, like selecting in proportion to the size of each area while factoring in the connection rate.
I use RDD for surveys I design, so I know exactly how it’s done, and how it shown be done properly. For my surveys we call people with unlisted numbers all the time.
Using the electoral roll for telephone samples requires tele-matching against published listings. These listings are biased in favour of home and vehicle owners, and they exclude unlisted numbers. Also, once you factor in all the people you can’t match, either because they have no landline, they have moved, or their number is unlisted, then the response rate for this type of survey is *extremely* low.
I can guarantee you that RDD sampling isn’t a myth. Just send me an email if you’d like to know more about it.
So RDD based sampling for political polls captures persons not on the electoral roll as well?
If RDD sampling is reasonably systematically unbiased, how else can you explain National’s support being fairly consistently over-estimated by the polls?
Well there are many potential sources of polling error, other than sampling error.
The polls mostly screen for eligible voters, as far as I’m aware.
I explain what I mean about polling error on my blog Tat Loo.
http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/03/24/error-in-polls-and-surveys-2/
Cheers.
you can f*ck off
A case in point was John Armstrong in a column a month or so ago,(sorry i havn’t got a link for it), openly admitted that He ‘thought’ the Reid-poll skewed it’s results by asking respondents a series of leading questions designed specifically to have respondents favor one party over another…
If it’s true that Armstrong said that, then I believe he’s wrong.
The polling code, which is soon to be ratified by the MRSNZ, requires the principal voting question to be asked early in the interview. The person who runs the Reid poll was involved in putting the code together. I know him, and I don’t believe he would do this.
Andrew, i like naive people, you know the person involved in putting the Reid-poll together, explains your explanations then doesn’t it, care to explain what connection you have to these polling organizations…
Well I’ve worked in the research industry for ten years. I’m also a Labour Party supporter – is it still okay that I post here?
Both your assertions are to say the least questionable without the addition of the magic stuff that makes the pie taste sweet, ‘Proof’,
By ‘research’ are you alluding to the particular branch of alchemy which produces political polls???,
i do not know whether the question you ask is directed at me personally as i have no say what-so-ever in who comments here at the Standard, but, as an indicative signpost i usually distrust those who’s writing tends to portray them in a light of a somewhat different hue than the musings of your average Labour Party supporter,
In other words suit yourself an examination of a continued commentary from you would in effect show us all where your true political allegiances should or do lie….
really bad 12 ? (do you contemplate before you press ‘enter.?)
the answer to “Andrew” – try harder
Ghostrider, for a negative comment directed at me it contains not enough information to give you a full reply so i will just resort to yes dickhead i do…
my bad 12
Maybe the answer is a lot simpler – bully tactics, long practiced at school level and beyond. If you can convince a many of the validity of a few you can win the argument. Publish that party xy is the top dog and bob is your uncle. All you need is some gullible folk and unveiled threat of doom.
Participation in the political process would demand some interest in the community and nation at large. Look around you and be honest. My experience is that if I just make an innocent comment in my work canteen such as:” it will be difficult for west coasters to find a job”, blank stares is all I get. I don’t bother with conversation about the social/political life really, there is no vigorous thought process out there and I don’t want to provoke some banjo playing. Best to stick to the weather, family, sport and hmmmm…. food perhaps is another one.
This is why such pols become self fulfilling prophecies.
some MOFO truth to that!
Dreaming
Seems to me they could have headlined that article “Labour up 2 percent since leadership change”.
I don’t have any trouble believing that the poll has National able or nearly able to form a government. There are an awful lot of people who honestly think the opinions expressed on Whaleoil and Kiwiblog are rational.
That is what makes National the largest party. They have been consolidating the nuts over the last decade as the other conservative parties die from voter starvation. But even with the 800k non-vote, they have pretty well hit the limits of how much the right accretion in the upcoming election.
That lack of accretion is the underlying reason for the SOE asset sales. They were hoping to widen the base of shareholding voters to increase their pool of voters.
well, they are fooked now.
So Matthew what do you think National should do about Slater? Looks like his promised expose on Brown has not occurred …
I feel like even Len can’t move on. He’s cancelled events. I think he still has to be worried.”
Is this shorthand from her, she knows more then she is letting on?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332912/Chuang-feels-much-better-now
Fuckin Bunny Boiler
you may retire gracefully now
It was “Pete” on Whaleoil who said there would be new information over the long weekend, not Cameron Slater. See http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2013/10/friday-general-debate-8/#axzz2ix3dMo6J
I don’t know who Pete is.
Pete is Cameron Slater.
Probably a waste of time but I’ll bite: Got any proof or just making it up again?
speaking of “wastes of time”…
Just have a look at what gets posted as “Pete”, and pay particular attention to the regular features. Draw your own conclusions.
Of course it’s possible that Slater actually does have a staff of several different people posting on his site under various names, but you’d have to ask why they keep sharing their logins with each other.
matthew hooten..how can it be..?
..that you claim..
..to have never eaten..
.. a frozen pea..?
..we’ve heard you’ve said:..’they’re not for the likes of me!..
..it’s my delicate palate..you see..’
..(and should we call you..
.. ‘new zealands’ marie’..?..)
..and what a great campaign/election slogan (in epsom) that would be..
“frozen peas..they’re not for the likes of you and me..!
..vote hooten/act..!..”
phillip ure..
phillip ure …..lol +1
What are you talking about. I had frozen peas for dinner last night. And paid GST on them.
@ hooten..
..from yrslf..
..on nat-rad..
..(no memory of it..?..)
..and w.t.f. has ‘paying gst’ got to do with anything..?
..is it part of yr ‘tax is theft’/fuck-the-poor!/rand-ite worldview..?
..a great election slogan tho’..
..eh..?
..you’d be ‘talking to yr people’..eh..?
..they would understand..eh..?
..and my search of whoar under ‘frozen peas’..
..threw this one up..
http://whoar.co.nz/2013/tandem-lies-hooton-and-farrar-sing-a-song-of-simple-men/
..enjoy..!
..phillip ure..
interesting when one has one’s own site
Keep clutching at them straws Hooten, i thought even you wouldn’t be so stupid as to keep trying to flog the ‘Governing alone’ ghost back to life,
It’s good to see such desperation across the whole written media spectrum with the Herald writers now producing only advertorials extolling the National Government this should give them a little more oxygen…
a clear marker of the widespread panic in the right..
..(aside from the corporate-media editors desperately searching for little shards of rightwing-light..anywhere they can..funny to watch..that one..eh..?..)
..is that they are viewing (E.T.-impersonator/christian-fundamentalist in neo-con-drag) colin craig..
as some kinda ‘solution’..
..whoar..!
..eh..?
..have they even read his policies/beliefs..?
..’woof!-woof!’..
..desperate times..indeed..!
..phillip ure..
It’s easy tho to see why clutching at the very thin straws other’s have plucked from the bale is more to Hootens liking than the political prediction site which He now claims,(since it started producing results He don’t like), to not have anything to do with,
From ipredict this morning,
Prime Minister after 2014 election, Cunliffe 53.3%, Slippery(Key) 48%,
Finance Minister after 2014 election, Parker 50%, English 37.8%,
Party Vote 2014 election, National 40.1%, Governing alone, nah laughably Governing non-one…
Mind you the ‘Loons’ over at ipredict don’t get into trying to ‘lead’ the voters round by the nose with the simpletons ‘National can Govern alone polls’ of the boring old mass media,
The ‘Loons’ over at the other place like to plumb the depths of their affliction by producing suggestive ‘predictions’ of a National/NZFirst/Conservative grand coalition,
NZ First and the Conservatives with 4.7% of the Party vote each, come in ‘spinner’…
As bad12 alludes to, I no longer do the PR for iPredict, but I still think it provides far better indications of future events, including elections, than polls. As bad12 points out, it says Labour is favoured and that its probability of leading the next govt has increased since the change of leader.
“Look at me! I’m relevant! I’m a serious political commentator that people take seriously!”
Christ Hoots, could you be any less obvious?
Very Good, carry on.
”Come in spinner” and lo and behold He does, spinning ever faster Hooten now flips the coin and speaks from the other side of His mouth,
The Fairfax poll gives the next election to National and the ipredict gives the next election to Labour/Green and you believe the both of them Hooten???,
Things must get really interesting inside your head…
😎
Quick, look over there…
If it aint beneficiaries, its asylum seekers (today) to use as a distraction. Because John Banks ‘has nothing to fear and nothing to hide’.
Good Work Audrey, nothing like keeping the embers of stupidity warm.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11147302
Hoots should be fitted with a tachometer.
a flow-meter
Bejeezus: 21.9% of those polled “don’t know or don’t intend to vote”
One fifth!
Great they actually published the “Dont Know” number, for once.
And that’s why Labour should can any ideas about converting “centre” votes from National. There are far more votes to be had winning the disengaged, and you don’t have to be a sellout to do it.
+111
That applies to all the left parties. Leave the centre to UF and NZ1st with National out on the far right.
+ 1 True but I doubt they will take that advice.
Love, and Rockets Esperanza
In her opinion piece, Tracy Watkins says “That is the shifting ground beneath undecided voters. Among the 12.5 per cent of voters we questioned, 29.7 per cent lean toward Labour, while 22.2 per cent lean to National.”
So assuming that 12.5% = the undecided voters, that still leaves 9.4% of people not intending to vote. 9% is still a lot, but I think that would be a better turnout than last election which is something (assuming all undecided voters vote).
It’s adorable how you say “Interesting new poll” as though you’re not pushing a very specific narrative by posting it. No no, this is just Matthew Hooton, naive, unbiased commenter, linking to something he thinks will be of interest to his fellow Standard commenters, honest, pay no attention to the rightwing spin behind the curtain. 🙄
More of Hootens Horseshit. He spouts it here, he spouts it there, he spouts it everywhere, FFS Hooten. The only ones that believe this crap, are you, BB, and the Knuckle dragger. The rest of us are waiting or the REAL poll. From Morgans.
lou reed has died..
(..shit..!..)
..and vale..!
phillip ure..
My last comment went into moderation.
Will try again:
Ahhh time to remember some great music.
a knee before you doc.
RIP Lou
well, if one can ‘master’ H, and ‘master’ ‘A’, then one is on the Way. slowly, slowly, makes progress.
[deleted]
[lprent:I see you haven’t lost your ability to be outright stupid is still intacft. The question is if I want to have the pointless abuse it generates between here and next years election? ]
You are all class BB. Phillip marks the passing of one of the most important musicians of the last 50 years and you abuse him …
Just asked a fair question Micky.
By the way, not good poll ratings for your man is it. The ABC sect will be very encouraged.
As for Lou Reed, highly over rated.
Yeah, the squares were always frightened by Lou. I think it was the honesty; he lived his own life and never tried to live someone else’s.
Not only did Lou frighten the squares but he also went over the heads of the morans.
bruv misses out on both counts.
Bruv’s just another Jim Jim, felix. And we know Lou really didn’t care about them, eh?
😀
Hey, ease off the Irish. There’s nothing wrong with Morans.
yeah..i thought felix was a bit harsh on the morans there..too..
..interesting story about the morans..
..the ones that came to nz..
..dropped the ‘ns’ from their name..
..eh..?
..phillip ure..
Not only did Lou frighten the squares but he also went over the heads of the morans.
I take it the Morans were a particularly stupid family?
http://tucsoncitizen.com/baja-democrats/files/2012/08/moran-1.jpg
And yet when people who review and produce music for a living rate artists and albums across decades and genres Lou features twice (berlin and transformer) and the velevet underground 3 times.
So between them and the punters he appears universally overated, I guess we cant all have your refined tastes BB.
I prefer to pay attention to Brian Eno rather than BB – and not just on music:
Yep you can trace punk music to the stuff he was doing 10 years before …
We are at that point where alot of the ground breaking artists of the 60-80’s are passing on. Bowie is heading toward 70 and a decade or so of cocaine abuse will probably catch him also.
Just watched sorcese’s excellent doco on George harrison, well worth a look.
eno is a legend with an intellect most artists would kill for.
“..and a decade or so of cocaine abuse will probably catch him also..”
um..!..a bit of a fact-check here..a decade of heavy abuse of alcohol..
..will permanently fuck you more than a decade of coke..
..and funnily enough..
..i found cocaine one of the easiest drugs to kick..
..i just decided to stop..that i had had enough to know all i needed to know..
..and that was it..
..no major physical/mental withdrawals etc as you get from alcohol/heroin/cigs/barbiturates etc..
..and he might get struck by lightening..
..but i can’t see his past coke-habit directly contributing to his eventual dropping off of the twig..
…eh..?
..phillip ure..
Who can say for sure but stressing up your system isnt good in any form over a long period and Bowie has already had heart issues.
ongoing poverty ‘stresses’ more than cocaine use..
..that i can say ‘for sure’..
..and of course..the poor die younger..
..phillip ure..
or, die for…
Big Bruv writes – ‘As for Lou Reed, highly over rated.’
By who? You? Who are you to state such a vacuous thing on the day he died? Fuck Off The Planet you Dick.
No, and Yes
Gutted. Whenever I pick up a guitar, the first song I play is inevitably one of Lou’s.
+1 🙁
R.I.P. Lou Reed.
.
imitations
Time to mourn the passing of one of the best muso’s of the late 20th Century. May he rest in Peace.
A-Men
Hard to believe poll really. The fact of the matter is that polls and politics are full of professional liars and manipulators so the voter has little chance to make genuine choices anymore and the fact of the matter is they havent since the rise and dominance of polls and professional liars over the last few years.
I find all polls distasteful and unnecessary. Deliberately operating to tell people what to think.
lets trial having no polls for 3 years. The fact of the matter is that Life wont decline for anyone but the professional liars and pollsters.
I propose that everytime the professional liars come up with a new bullshit word strategy that all parties and people start using it liberally to neutralise it.
One poll with a shift within margin of error, is not much of an indicator on its own.
If Nationals internal polling was indicating that Key was really going to beat his 2011 result… Hooten wouldn’t be working early on Labour Day.
The problem for Key is that despite the media bullshit, Key only won the last election by 45,000 votes. Maybe less. He has no margin of safety to lose.
Nonetheless, the point is made: Labour and the Greens have to play a sharp game over the next 12 months, National is going to Fight back hard. They’re not just going to walk away in 2014.
One poll and you perform like a seal.
SHIT, would be that word Tracey
Xox
Firstly. Polls are unnecessary, distracting and manipulative.
Second. No surprise there, they are right leaning and publicise a right wing view.
Third. This tactic was successful for the Right wing at the last election, as evidenced by the low voter turnout, which clearly indicated disengagement from the democratic process.
Russell Brand has a valid point. Voting for the corporate backed
current democratic process is failing. USA, GB, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland etc etc. Why don’t we try something new called Democracy. Cf corporate crazy.. Dumocrupcy!
“Why don’t” you find another political blog to share your acumen with!
Agres phil. Shooten up is here trumpetting it cos he knows polls work like other advertising.
funny how any crusade to ban polls gets no support from most pollies or media. Polling us a form of pimping
Forest and Bird,
Any truth in the rumour that forest and bird are buying shares in Bathurst Resources to try to regain some of the money they have thrown away on frivolous court challenges ???
[lprent: seems unlikely. Changed an unlinked attempt to create a rumour to an appropriate color. Next time you try it, you disappear for a while. ]
wotta dick!
In the new poll, 1/5th of voters hadn’t made up their minds yet, and most of those undecided voters were leaning towards Labour. Shows how much Labour needs to increase voter turnout.
Is another Roy Morgan poll coming out soon? Seems we are due for one.
And I agree with some of the above sentiment about opinion polls. They should be banned during campaign season. They just encourage people to either vote for the winner (bandwagon effect), or vote for the loser (underdog effect). People should be voting on their preference. Also waste time on the news when they could be reporting about actual issues.
I’d advocate for a ban on polling activity and poll reporting for the 72 hours before election day, to force people and the press to focus on debating the issues, not the polls.
Why 72 hours? Why not a week?
Or 6 weeks? 😈
I think that’s not enough time before the election day to be considering issues. If you’re interested, Bryce Edwards did a series of interesting blog posts based on someone’s Honours thesis about how opinion polls influence the way individuals vote (Link: http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2011/11/do-opinion-polls-influence-voters-1-introduction.html)
Thx…
Needs to be over the entire electioneering period which also needs to be longer than the present 6 weeks.
DTB
I think that the polling etc keeps the election before the public. It wouldn’t be good to have it pushed onto the backburner in people’s minds. Maybe stop polls etc for two weeks before, not longer. People who are particularly susceptible to poll reports will be making their minds up in the last two, even one, week.
There are better ways to to keep the election before the public such as informing them of the parties policies.
I picked a 3 day poll blackout period in order to balance concerns around freedom of press. If there was widespread support for a longer period say 7 or 14 days then yes, it should be implemented.
Tracy Watkins has said that “That is the shifting ground beneath undecided voters. Among the 12.5 per cent of voters we questioned, 29.7 per cent lean toward Labour, while 22.2 per cent lean to National.” (Link: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332783/National-sailing-on-unchecked)
If we add those voters in and assume they vote for who they lean towards, National lose a seat, but still have 62 seats in a 124 seat House (assuming all electorate seats are held). This might be some consolation to any of you who are worried about a National government that can govern on its own.
An also interesting fact is that this poll is the third most viewed item according to stuff. I don’t know if that bodes well for Labour or not, but it is interesting given that I assumed the average voter didn’t give a crap about polls this far from an election.
Your time is up!
Asylum ‘cruises’ to NZ touted
People-smugglers in Indonesia are promoting a passage to New Zealand in
shipping containers for up to $17,000 a person and are describing it to
would-be customers as “the cruise ship option”, an Australian news
investigation has found.
I thought Labour said this was impossible.
Link please, or you made it up.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11147302
And the part where Labour said it was “impossible” is where?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9332917/New-Zealand-easy-route-for-people-smugglers
There was a more dramatic headlined article describing a “cruise” to NZ but can’t find it. EDIT Doug found it ^^^
Yawn Doug, and where exactly do you think these ‘people smugglers’ are going to get a container ship from,
Only ‘wing-nuts’ would have an iota of belief in a ‘third-hand’ story produced without a shred of proof in the National Party NZ Herald…
Exactly bad – a made up story with the only real interest being why now, what are they afraid of, what don’t they want people talking about – hmmm hollowhooton gives a clue, I also notice some righties still trying to beat up brown – spring is definitely here – lots of blowhards and some spittle.
Oh, I’m sure there’s some around for cheap hire.
/sarc
LOLZ, i can well imagine that particular ship steaming toward Wellington Harbor with A container full of refugees sitting on the deck,(nothing to see here officer)…
tidal
Tony Abbott elected on promises of stopping the “boat people”, doesn’t believe in climate change … Fairfax newspapers 14% owned by mining magnate Gina Rinehart start spinning the idea that the “boat people” won’t be coming to Australia. Convenient.
It’s a long way from PNG to NZ. Odds are not good for the intrepid asylum seekers.
And the Tasman is a hell of a sea to cross in vessels that are likely to be less than sea worthy.
McD’s USA
http://rt.com/usa/mcdonalds-help-broke-food-stamps-649/
According to the video at the bottom of the link above 52% of fast food families use public assistance benefits to survive (time stamp 1:35- 1:42 but watch until the end it’s only a few seconds and it makes a valid point)
What percentage of NZ families that work in similar jobs are reliant on the state for assistance just to pay basic living costs? If welfare is known to be dangerous to your health, why is the burden not shifted back onto the employer instead of the state?
[lprent: too much shouting ]
Big business and big money rules US politics now. Has done for about 40 years. Extremely bad in the last 10 years. Their ability to maintain their Union will come into real question one day.
Same seems to be true in NZ as well although not to the same extent as in the US – pretty sure we’re getting there though.
Well, duh, then the employer wouldn’t make as much profit and they would only have one income stream rather than two. The second being all the money that they’re loaning the government to pay for the costs induced by their low wages.
McD’s USA
These comments are at the bottom of the item at No.9 on low pay. It seems that all of us brought up under the western free market propaganda model respond to complaints by finding fault with the complainer. Being able to coolly look at the situation in its context is not a skill learned at school or home.
fidel 27.10.2013 19:15 – reply to
Ed Walton 25.10.2013 01:58
She’s worked at an entry level job for ten years; yet has no skills to move up. McDonalds isn’t the problem.
Reply – Hey Ed, I’ve worked in this type of environment years ago and it hasn’t changed. As soon as you get the smarts on doing your job and show any initiative, they lay you off. They have a wage ceiling and as soon as you arrive at it, the next step is the door. A lot cheaper to hire 15+ year olds and pay them squat
fidel 27.10.2013 19:05 – reply to
Jp 27.10.2013 06:19
This is smoke screen… Mcdonald that’s for young adults, just to learn how to work… That was my first job 32 years ago! Why are they still working there?
Reply – Th ere aren’t any other jobs you idiot, or do you ever get out or read a newspaper? The real unemployment rate in the good ole USA is almost 10%!
Peas in a pod.
http://www.ilsr.org/chains-walmart-foods-free-ride-taxpayers-expense-responsible-small-businesses/
http://www.forwardprogressives.com/think-walmart-is-an-evil-empire-wait-until-you-read-this/
Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like, you can talk of trends, over and under polling, but when a majority of polls are pointing to one thing, then that thing is probably going to happen. The only thing that is a certainly is that the greens always poll way higher than the numbers they actually get on election day.
Third term for national for sure, but then Labour will get in the next time, because they will stop this communist stance that they’re promoting to make all the unionists and pta members hard.
“The only thing that is a certainly is that the greens always poll way higher than the numbers they actually get on election day.”
Lolwut?
Counterpoint for you, Brett:
The only thing that is certain (sic) is that National always poll way higher than the numbers they actually get on election day.
time for you to find a blog where U are appreciated Brett Dale (cos it may not be here).
just saying.
ghostrider.
Just saying is the worst catchphrase ever used.
just saying.
“Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like”
Why not, as long as you pick and chose on the basis of faulty method or demonstrated bias. Picking and choosing on the basis of the results would be stupid.
Brett:
So I take it you support a Final Solution for trade unionists.
Given that you supported the anti union thug, Peter Jackson, who would rather take production of his crappy overlong movie offshore than deal with a trade union and give his workers sick leave and ACC, that pretty much makes you anti union. And who cares if banning unions would guarantee a sweatshop economy, like in China.
Peter Jackson should be in court for his anti democratic thuggish behavior, and the systematic black listing of unionists in the movie industry is something that needs a Royal Commission to look into, and others to be procecuted. Even if every producer, director and film boss in the country was hauled before the ERA and every dollar squeezed out of them in fines.
BEING IN A UNION IS A DEMOCRATIC RIGHT.
Had PJ made the Hobbit in China, all he had to do was ring up the local PLA barracks, and AE members would be sent to the nearest labour camp, or worse.
Millys:
Everybody should have the right to join a union and everybody should have a right not to
join a union.
Millys: Everybody should have the right to join a union, and everybody should have the
right not to join a union.
“Ya know, you cant pick and choose the polls you like and dont like, you can talk of trends, over and under polling, but when a majority of polls are pointing to one thing, then that thing is probably going to happen.”
And the majority of polls point to a change of Government. So what was your, er, point, again?
Te reo Putake:
You mean the three polls after the labour leader election, that pointed to the labour/greens victory and not the 75 polls that pointed to a national victory?
75-3, now Im no good will hunting, but ya dont need to be, with those numbers.
Opps, make that 76-3 now.
Yeah, ’cause political opinions don’t change over time, and a poll that is 3+ years out from an election is going to be more accurate than one taken 1 year out from an election.
It must be a very confusing place inside that little brain of yours, Brett.
Of the last 14 Roy Morgan polls, the left bloc have come out ahead in 10 of them, and the last 5 in a row. So there’s that.
According to Brett’s logic, National did not actually form a government in 2008, because the majority of polls conducted over 1999-2008 showed Labour would be able to form a government.
Hallelujah!
His mental dysfunction goes even deeper than that: clearly we only need to conduct a single political poll, because nothing ever changes. That’s why Brett was so surprised to see *another poll* conducted, because what would be the point of that?
QOT:
Actually they didnt QOT. Key was the firm fav, headed into 2008.
🙄
No Brett, Key was the firm fave in about 20 out of the 144 polls conducted over the 1999-2008 period, so therefore Labour was obviously going to win 2008, based on the exact same logic you’ve displayed in this thread.
Lanthanide:
Im talking about the 2008 election.
Yes, Bretty. So are we. One day you’ll catch up, but sadly we will have moved on, so you’ll just have to keep running.
Wow, he’s even slower than I thought. It does all start to make sense, though.
QoT:
Im always running, but im always running behind.
Never stop to smell the roses the roses, you can always
smell them when your running with them in your hand.
Brett, just about every recent poll, including the historically inaccurate ones like this, show National’s slow slide to the opposition benches. Like it or not, this is MMP and there is no poll saying that National is going win more votes than they did at the last election and without UF, ACT and the MP to prop them up, that’s what they have to do to win.
Donkeyote is beginning to look more and more like the “MUMMY” on teevee last night.
When the magic formula is read he will disappear like a puff of dust.
If polls are no more than advertsing using covert and overt methods to shift opinion ghere is no place for them.
If you advocate 72 hours you are fundamentally agreeing they undermine something so cannot logically rely on freedom of press argument.
Why is the press interested in them??
Gaaaagh. Don’t try and make me think complicatedly on a holiday! 😛
😉
About sums it up really:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/352704/lefts-central-delusion-thomas-sowell
Wow – it’s like he’s completely erased the GFC from his memory. Not to mention all that economic darwinism crap.
You sir, are a selective idiot , yet, carry on.
From matthews link to research above
“simultaneous to this increase in election poll incidence and coverage has been a worldwide decline in issue based political reporting.[3] The increased focus on election poll results and coalition possibilities is said to have “squeezed” out more relevant types of political information.[4] Factual reporting on parties’ and candidates’ policy positions, track records and capabilities is in sharp decline.[5] This holds true in regard to the 2008 New Zealand election campaign: of the top five most covered topics in the media (accounting for 50% of all election campaign coverage), only one topic, the economy, involved discussion of policy, track records and capabilities.[6] While media coverage of election poll results and coalition possibilities is increasing, reporting of political issues is becoming increasingly superficial and trivial.[7]””
Awesome time lapse
don’t hold ya’ breath Draco
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9295689/Labour-and-Greens-see-support-grow
See nothing to get your knickers in a twist about lefties…
BUT plenty for the right to be worried bout
Any comments Hooten?
NY Federal Reserve Examiner Fired After Submitting Critical Report of Goldman Sachs
It’s a video.
Iprent, you seem to forget how Labour did over the same period. If you look at the average of polls you will see in 12 months before the 2011 election National dropped 4% but Labour dropped nearly twice that at 7.5%.
I know its hard to bare but when the cold light of argument shines on Labours policies and record they dont seem to do so well. Cunliffes honeymoon only lasted a month, JKs seems to be going on forever. Remember all that rubbish in 2009 when all were saying JKs honeymoon is over!
A link to the proof of your assertions will go a long way toward making the debate more meaningful or did you just read the comments in the post and think to apply Nationals 2011 pre-election polling from the same organization being presently discussed to the Labour Party instead…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/opinion-polling-for-the-New-Zealand-general-election-2011 , hope that helps.
That’s not proof of your assertion.
“Cold light of argument” 😆
You mean screaming blue murder about “Socialism” and making throat-slitting gestures? Argument, you haven’t got one.
As for Labour’s record, do we have to remind you who said they left the economy in good shape in 2008? It was Bill English. Oh, and John Key.
Did you forget that once the books were made public Cullen said”the cupboard is bare” a great achievement after 9 years when the economies of every country in the OECD boomed. After 5 years of National Government when the World has been in recession, we have Growth in NZ,the envy of most OECD countiies. Under the last 6 months of Labour Negative Growth,of as Labours finance minister said” a technical recession”
Did you forget that you wingnuts spent nine years complaining that Cullen was running a surplus and paying down debt?
When you say “the cupboard is bare”, you do recall some tax cuts eh? You see, government raises revenue (that means money) by levying “taxes” (like tennis club fees) and then uses them to provide services as approved by Parliament – things like roads and schools and hospitals and remedial education and support teachers, and all the other things you are a beneficiary of.
So when a government voluntarily slashes its own income who emptied the cupboard?
Please try and keep up.
what a blinkered opinion, Cullen said the cupboard was bare before National had a budget and lowered taxes,did you forget they also put up GST to compensate for the loss of income or is your memory just a bit selective. Remember also that increasing taxes isnt the only answer, it was labours only answer but try growth. You know that thing thats happening under a National Government. More growth =more income = more taxerevenue. Just trying to Tax Rich pricks is a failed Labour policy. If you want a succesful economy it has to grow pushing up wages without growth and taxes without increasing income just leaves you and your policies on the opposition benches,funny that isnt it!
If you dont believe me check Greece and cyprus and most of Europe,especialy the bits with a leftwing Government.
Yeah, slashing income when the “cupboard is bare” is such a rational thing to do.
And that putting even more taxes onto the poor didn’t work either as the total change left the government around $1b to $2b dollars a year worse off.
As history shows growth is something that happens despite National and not because of them
History shows that taxing the rich causes more growth and now even the IMF is suggesting that we tax the rich more.
We’ve had growth over the last 30 years, overall, wages have gone down while profits have gone up.
All you’ve really shown here is your complete disconnection from reality. Everything you’ve said is wrong.
What a strange answer. Have wages realoy gone down over the last30 years , thefacts say different.
evidence for “despite national” In recession National has done as well as Labour in the boom years. You explain why we were 2 places lower inOECD rankings after Labour got in and since National got in WE have gained 2 places! ! to 2 billion ,which, its quite a big difference. Are you saying we are better off because National reduced our total tax gift to the Government and yet improved policing ,health and the economy. More of that please!
Sorry mate, you are dreaming. Most people reading this blog understand that prices have gone up while wages and hours have struggled and fallen behind.
Shame you are so out of touch, you almost had prospects (well, not really).
He gave it a fair crack and was found wanting. We need better wingnuts.
Must be all those facts that you’re not used to seeing.
Citation needed and, no, linking to National Party website, Kiwiblog or WhaleOil will not be regarded as reliable source.
Oh, that’s easy. We were, and still are, following neo-liberal policies, i.e, the free-market. This resulted in our economy turning to custard over the last thirty years. The reason why we’re relatively up now is because a few other countries, following the same delusional economic prescriptions, have suddenly become worse off (really, this is only a surprise to the neo-liberals and RWNJs).
Nope, I’m saying we’re worse off because of those things. More poverty, more money going to the non-productive rich and debt sky-rocketing.
I think my reply there disappeared into spam.
what a blinkered opinion
You spelled ‘Want’ wrong, and should have finished with a question mark not a comma.
Cullen lowered taxes you nonce, hence the ‘cupboard being bare’ comment.
As for National’s growth, if you factor out record dairy prices, you start to get what they can take credit for. Building roads that don’t make the grade in terms of the Ministry’s own method for determining good value spending, rebuilding ChCh which has to happen but falls under ‘broken windows’, and a housing boom that English spent the first few years telling us was what his ‘rebalancing’ of the economy was supposed to move us away from.
And who said we should be ‘more like Ireland’?
Rockape — how many hospitals were closed under National between 1990 and 1999? And how many were closed under Labour between 1999 and 2008?
rockape, why are you quoting OECD stats as if they’re not online (www.oecd.org)?
I really don’t mind you making shit up, but when it’s so easily seen to be bullshit, that’s just an insult.
Well you must be looking at a socialist version. When Labour came to goverment the last time we were rated 20th on our economy in the OECD. Clarks plan was to increase our ranking. In 2004 we had dropped to21st, 2007 to 22nd were we remained until National took over. We are now back to 20th under National. Its taken 5 years to undo the damage Labour did last time.
For the bulk of the Clark govt, NZ averaged a quarter of a percent above the OECD quarterly growth figure, with about a quarter of the data points being lower than the OECD average..
For Key’s government, that’s not less than a tenth above the OECD figure on average, with a ratio of 7:11 under:over the OECD average.
“Brighter future” my arse.
We’re only at 20 in the OECD list because the other countries in the list dropped farther after the GFC than we did.
I don’t think this is to any particular credit to National, because they basically did nothing in response to the GFC – not really difficult. I think it’s more a reflection of our economy: we’re a primary producer of agricultural products with very little in the way of value-add. This makes it difficult for us to rise up the OECD rankings, but conversely also means we won’t fall as far when troubled economic times hit, because we simply don’t have a very complex or dynamic economy.
And when the warmth of sunlight and reality hits them they do quite well. It’s only on Planet Key that they don’t do so well.
Reality Draco. Labour in the wildest dreams cant expect to come near 50% in the election. National are going to be bloody close! Labour see it as a great success to get above 30% in the polls and see it as a failure if National get less than 50%. What a strange World to live in.
A world with MMP in it? Yes, what a fanciful dream.
National need 50% in order to be able to form a government.
It’s an ideal example of why neoliberalism fails: by refusing cooperation and basic social interaction with anyone of a different creed, National now need to provide pretty much all their electoral support for themselves. If they fail to achieve an outstanding victory, they will sit on the opposition benches until they learn to play with others. The left, on the other hand, can work together, respecting, accepting, and accommodating different policy objectives. Each party might not achieve dominance and the power to ram through their particular policy fetish, but by working together, they have a much better chance of sitting on the government benches. While scrooge mcfuck yells “humbug” from the other side, while getting his woodlice to sniff underwear in the search for scandal.
Fortunately, Labour has a coalition partner in the Greens who sit over 10% themselves. Who does National have at the moment?
I am not so sure how the next election will go to be honest. Mr Cunliffe is as silent as Shearer was. The general public needs to know what Labour stands for as many have forgotten. One needs to remember that the ordinary folks out there are scared to loose the job, being able to raise their kids, pay the doctor, go onto retirement etc… once people are in that predicament its very difficult to get them changing their opinion and vote, if they vote at all.
Huh???
What do you mean with Huh??? – Maybe academic and political circles talk a lot about him, but Joe blogs does not hear much. I know he is traveling the provinces but what are the policies re employment, growth, sustainability, debt and taxes etc…try to ask people in the street and you will quickly realize that not many can give any answers.
Step by step mate, the man is busy.
lol
how much time should we start giving labour party leaders, now?
Oh, just the usual, another 6 months or so.
lol
Yes, but isn’t that his job? He was sitting a long time on the backbench able to put some coherent ideas together. Or is this just a case of not revealing to much too soon?
Colon Craig
Cunliffe poll on Stuff.co.nz
Scroll down, make your opinion count, let’s push the man up a couple of notches.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour
Aint going to work as he hasnt done well. Do you realy think trying to rig the poll will help Labour. See colmar Brunton. Labour 34% and only a third of them think hes a good performer. Do I see another Labour leader before election day.
Hey rockape. Do I see John Key lying politically comatose on the ground with Judith Collins standing gleefully over him? Why, yes I do.
I could think of worse things…
All together now
:-D, nice tune-up NAS
Bunch of right-wing monkeys don’t like Cunliffe?
I’m ok with that.
felix:
Seems only 12% of people like cunliffe.
Yep I would be worried like hell if they liked him.
His wife seems pretty sharp, hopefully she’ll be advising him
Oh look, creepy right wingers getting creepy about people’s families again.
Creep.
Ok you’ll need to explain why that comment was creepy because apart from what I’m guessing is your inability to distinguish between reality and fantasy I’m not sure how something that was complimentary could be taken as creepy
But I’m sure you’ll have some totally plausible explanation
Oh look, creepy right wingers creeping backwards away from their creepy behaviour.
Again.
Lets see, I asked you to explain why what I said was creepy and instead of telling me why you instead try to continue on by saying its creepy
You might want to consider that just because you think somethings creepy doesn’t ackshully make it creepy
Bringing the family members of your opponents into the discussion is creepy, creep.
Kinda weird that you think that needs explanation.
When the economy is fucked, the unemployment is on the rise and the living standard keeps dropping, let’s keep the masses distracted with scaremongering about boatloads of asylum seekers heading for our shores:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11147302
Economy F8888d not according to every economic indicator.A world reccession and National are dragging NZ up the OECD scale, unlike Labour were we dropped.
See my reply at 20.2.1.2.1.2.
DNFTT
And your comment shows very much what manipulation is being applied. Of cause the US is in a very bad state due to the money press running since quite a while. What will happen when it stops? The contraction in the world markets will certainly be felt. Japan, another one that is in a similar situation and China’s economy is coming off the boil. Of cause NZ looks good against this backdrop, even Bangladesh would. To compare this to a NZ when all 3 major trading partners had not yet seen the banking crush of 2008 is simply deceit. None of the NZ parties will or have ever been able to influence any of this. To sell this to the NZ public as an achievement is almost treachery.
Just like Sister Ray Says Have a Good Night have a good night, have a good night…have good night…
Just Like Sister Ray “Says”
(eat my dust).
This might appeal to all those upright ethical tory lads suddenly so concerned about leadership ethics and morality……
From NRT: John Key [p 13] spent $110 on very expensive skin-care products, tagged as “NZ skin care for protocol officer”. Was it a gift? Because if it wasn’t, it seems extravagant. Not to mention odd
Indeed. Odd…..
Perhaps he wanted to feel pretty?
Children’s Commissioner funds study into child poverty from outside non-cooperative government
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11147721