Luxon has thrown Seymour under the Bus by not giving Seymour a free lunch in Epsom sending a clear message to Seymour pull your head in.Or you won't be in Parliament.Given the Scandal's around ACT at the moment .ACT could be in serious trouble.Priceless the look on Seymours face when Media asking him awkward questions.Luxons favourite attack line a desperate coalition on the left when Luxon has Peters and Seymour .
A farmer wonders where the wool industry has gone.
After multiple decades of resisting wool grower levies for innovation, zero resistance to scouring plants being sent offshore, the offshoring of nearly all wool clothing manufacuring, and nothing but farmer moaning, an entire region shifts from growing sheep to grapes.
Not like he hasn't had time to shift to Merino where all the clothing brands of Glowing Sky, Macpac, Icebreaker, Swanndri etc have sourced their cloth needs since the 1980s.
Oh no we're going to have to find more productive uses for land. What a quandary.
Ad, not all lowland sheep country is suitable for rasing merinos. Their feet are susceptible to foot rot and they therefore thrive on drier country. In NZ they do best on the dry high country of the South Island though there will be pockets of suitable country throughout the country.
NZ has had a coarse wool industry second to none for carpets etc. Silly decisions by Govt to allow govt funded places such as schools to buy solution dyed nylon carpets will not be helping our coarse wool industry.
Quite apart from being petroleum based (why would we be wanting this stuff in our homes & schools) nylon does not have much going for it. Old wool carpet can be recycled and fades away to nothing if used as a weed suppressant at the end of it life on your floor. .
OK, that explains why no merino sheep farming is taking place in Waikato.
But even if only coarse wool can be produced, I would like NZ farmers to succeed at that. Natural fibre beats synthetic any day for me. Hopefully international markets will come around.
NZ farmers have suffered also with the removal of tariffs, the nurturing of home manufacturing and allowing all sorts of synthetic fibres to come in to NZ.
Synthetic fibres sit like stodge in our waste systems. We even export wool bales of the stuff to developing countries (why?).
But don't start me on textile waste and the lack of use of natural/recycleable/degradeable fabrics….it is one of my hobby horses.
Ad farmers are short sighted I talked to many farmers around 2008/9 about the wool levy they were about to abolish.Not only did wool growers abolish the 15 cent a kilo wool levy for research and development of more value adding to wool.Farmers said they couldn't afford it and after only a few years no breakthroughs had been made which was totally untrue (farmer's just looking for the short term)The wool research institute had made several major breakthroughs on wool.How ever National made the decision to close the wool research institute being the pro farming party I knew this was the dumbest idea like really dumb.Natonal closed the wool research facility and 2 of the world's top wool researchers were made redundant. South Africa bought them and their research for next to nothing after $millions had been spent.What farmers failed to understand is that it takes 15 years of continuous research on average to make major break through.The wool research institute had made major break through after less than 10 yrs research making superior fireproofclothing ,machine washable wool and a process that cut out the need to weave or knit wool.The Nitwts at National and federated farmers had blunderedbadly and now it costs more to shear sheep than the fleece is worth.Ad Merino wool has to be micro fine to be of any value.So Ad growing Merino on lusher pastures means coarser wool.
Also the destruction of small NZ textile manufacturers who were working with wool etc. Very progressive, not, at the time to close them and allow a tsunami of synthetics made in factories where modern employment law and protections for workers was missing.
Strong wool can also be used for felted weed cloth (prevents erosion, retains slopes, allows seed germination, 100% biodegradeable) and for sound control felt boards (use in schools, offices, large open areas) and could also be used to make insulating board for floors, walls and ceilings (like the old Pinex board) for homes which can't have other insulation installed.
Wool is going to waste in NZ every day. It's terrible.
My recollection of when the voted to kill levies it was because the wool board or WHT ever they called them self them where just a bunch of do nothing tougher living on the farmers back, was only on the fringe of the farming industry then so this is pure anecdata
Also farmers have been led badly by the people who are supposed to advocate for them – Federated Farmers. FF has become little more than a rural National Party sub-committee content to chant out their mantra "National good, Labour bad" and dump on any farmer who dares to say otherwise.
Yes that is true Mike the Lefty. My Bro in law left the Feds years ago after being criticised for his fenced riparian plantings to protect his streams, which at the time were seen as akin to some form of bad thinking – perhaps socialism or even communism. (only slight exaggeration)
While I suspect the links between FF & the Nats have always been a bit closer than between FF & the left it did not used to be so screechy and bad – remembering that Ruth Richardson was a Fed Farmers office holder before becoming an MP.
We now have had the Feds, in my view, not clearly distinguishing themselves from the likes of the Howl of a Protest people (McKenzie and Paterson) which in large measure was an anti female, anti Jacinda Ardern being a female PM as well as everything else.
Fed Farmers used to be most aware of the need to work with all types of Govt and therefore to more or less walk down the middle. This seems to have been lost of late in my view.
Stuff is doing a rolling coverage of campaign events as they happen. The Nat's tax plans are due to be released at 10:30 this morning.
This much has already been revealed if some of TS's wiz kids want to start on the numbers:
The tax relief policy would come into effect from July next year
Average income household ($120k) with kids: $250 a fortnight, about $150 of this will be in childcare subsidies
Average income household with no children: $100 a fortnight
Supperannuant couples: $26 a fortnight
Median income full time worker ($60k): $50 a fortnight
Full-time minimum wage worker: $20 a fortnight
The policy is capped at $78,100, meaning someone earning slightly above this would get the same per fortnight as a millionaire.
As a supperannuant living alone do I get nothing. That would be right. Such individuals are no doubt at the bottom of NAct's barrel.
Edit: after all the whinging and moaning about Labour’s package not starting until next year, I note there’s will not come into effect until July of next year.
Haha oh lordie it seems that the National Party is really keen to popularise "fortnight, fortnight, fortnight" – Could it be the per week amount sounds like shit?
"Minimum wage workers offered a part of a block of cheese taxcut"
that should be the MSM headline
Ten dollars a week doesn't buy much cheese does it?
I think the reason that the payments are expressed fortnightly is that where benefits and super is concerned these are paid fortnightly. Public sector salaried people are paid fortnightly.
I budget fortnightly. Others paid weekly would budget weekly. No skin off anyone's nose how it is expressed, surely.
Meaningless. In fact, Luxon will get many thousands of dollars extra from his 7 properties.
I don't actually believe he proposes these policies only to enrich himself, because he's already very wealthy. But it is certainly to enrich donors to the National Party. The "quid pro quo" is obvious, hence the flood of money into party coffers now.
Which leads one to wonder… how many donors to the National Party were wittingly made aware of what they were planning in order to increase their coffers tenfold.
What a bunch of miserable, greedy rogues who have no care for anyone other than themselves.
Average income household ($120k) with kids: $100 a fortnight, + $25 per child tax credit and up to $80 a week child care tax rebate (where such under 5's cost)
Average (couple) household with no children: $50 a week
So, households on the average income will get $50 per week. Not exactly mind-blowing given the cost of living expenses but some help.
So those whose income is below average range from $25 a week to $8 a week depending on circumstances. Oh boy, that's going to help pay for the ever increasing rates and insurances plus petrol etc. many of us still have to find out of our meagre incomes.
And what about those in the upper income bracket? Have they been inadvertently left off the list? (sarc)
Anyone with a chronic illness will need that much to cover Dr and reinstated Chemist.
Experience says you go back to user pays, 90 day trials, poor contracts, with lack of protections and no certainty, and this will not really be a benefit except on paper and work best for the already well off.
Let us see where the four revenue streams are squeezed from.
We already have this – 1 member of the family had their cancer return – had to go private for all steps $50k later and we are all on the road to recovery AGAIN. So where is the public health system ?? Labour and their management of this country is causing more and more families to become working poor. And not forget lack of wage increases for many and meteoric mortgage increases. About time people in govt and supporting them get some real life experiences to perhaps appreciate how tough it has been for many over the last 3 years. So I question your comment, many already are covering such costs and much more . Screw the working man’s political party because they have already screwed us🤯🤬
What HAS happened under labour and how its results are what we have experienced. Real life cases none of this hypothetical crap that we hear from ministers and PMs …experienced. From previous experiences with the same cancer life was easier both under Clark and Key. And bwaghorn if it wasn’t for our ability to pay Labour govt would have another death so you can f?()$ off with your crap comment.
My wife's sister has had cancer four times in the last forty years and all helped and supported and recovered through the public health system. Not a cent spent privately. Other family members with cancer have had no trouble getting treatment.
What is noticeable is demand is higher as population ages but I don't blame current government for that – previous ones should have been investing and training for this time which was entirely predictable.
Those earlier governments fucked this up – including as a result of a stupid DHB structure that encouraged waiting lists to get funding and non-co-operation across NZ.
You're trying to blame today for the malaise of the past.
@ Descendant of Smith (5.1.1.2.1) … Absolutely spot on. Well said.
I've been saying for years, previous governments knew there would be an aging Kiwi population (post WWII), likely requiring more health, housing, social and other government services further down the track, from the 2000s onward. So there has been plenty of time for past administrations to prepare for this eventuality. After all, we boomers haven't just popped up in the last shower of rain have we? We've been on the radar since the 1940s!
ACT is proposing to end the link between super payment levels and the net average wage and limit any increase to the CPI.
“Switching to CPI indexation will also ensure that the cost of the pension does not continue to grow inexorably as the economy grows.”
“We’ve actually future-proofed our pension by linking it to inflation,” Seymour said.
However, Seymour did accept if pensioners did become worse off following his policy being adopted, it would be reversed and Super would be linked back to wages.
Act’s budget said the switch would save $1.13 billion across the period to 2026/27.
The quotes above indicate Seymour is either confused and out of his depth or lying – how can they budget for a reduced cost of super and also say if the change disadvantaged anyone they would reverse it?
How does it become more affordable to government with the change and those on super not be worse off?
Don't get old, and definitely don't even think about getting sick in NZ. And if you're considering a vote for ACT (and by extension, National), make sure you have insurance for absolutely everything- redundancy, unemployment, trauma, comprehensive health, your savings, absolutely every eventuality. Because the ultimate aim of their exercise is survival of the fittest- sorry, richest.
To post that, without noting that the change is a temporary one – only made because of the current high levels of inflation, is entering the Seymour stratosphere for misrepresentation.
Due to the even great inequity triggered by the sudden inflation spike. This needs to become a permanent feature, agreed to by governments of all stripes. Yeah, right.
And I certainly don't know, or believe, "a Labour Government will move between a CPI and Wage linkage to use whichever benefits superannuitants the most.".
A Labour Government will do whatever benefits that Government. The benefit to any other group is of very little interest to them compared to their own interests. All Governments tend to lean that way.
I would greatly prefer that there be very carefully thought through, and agreed, rules for setting such things as benefit levels rather than politicians setting such levels based on how they feel that morning or who last spoke to them, or what their polling company tells them may help their popularity levels.
Actually NZ Super is adjusted by CPI and the current Government did nothing to change the rules (they are an Act of parliament). There is a minimum (and maximum) level versus NAW which is what was triggered this year.
What Act are proposing is to remove the requirements of s16. I believe this was the case quite some time ago and Govts made ad-hoc increases until the corridor was enacted (and that has also been changed subsequently to the current levels).
cutting government spending (so-called back office functions and consultants). This means long-term decline in service quality and a disguised form of austerity given rapid population growth through the sky-high immigration that will become permanent under National. Think you might get health insurance because the public system is in decline? Sorry, your paltry tax cuts won't remotely cover the premiums. Ditto private schools.
by re-inflating house prices through making landlordism more attractive and inviting foreign buyers back. Then taxing those foreign buyers who decide to join in the speculative spree. Expect the many, many houses in Auckland with a current valuation of $1.5 to 1.8M to mysteriously* end up in the foreign-buyer-eligible $2M+ bracket and then everything else coat-tailing higher in response. If you don't already own a house, sorry, your paltry tax cut won't even touch the sides of the extra cost of buying one. And your wages will decline (in real terms) as you compete with immigrants and a growing group of unemployed. But be happy, your saint-like landlord will cut your rent because their costs are lower, rather than just pocket the difference (wtf)
Juicing the economy with high immigration and rising house prices – the Key playbook.
*mysteriously: An important point here is whether the $2M requires an official valuation or is just what someone is prepared to pay for it.
There will be a valuation for Rates purposes. And 2M+ won't buy you much in my street. The land value alone for a 340m2 site is $1.75 million. City fringe and fortunately heritage overlaid, so not a target for developers.
National has the same increase in WFF tax credit as Labour – $25 a week (under 18)
It also has its Child Care Rebate up to $80 a week for those with such under 5 costs – whereas Labour directly subsidises 20 hours care for those 2 to age 3.
National is proposing the same change On Working for Families – $25 per week from April 1, 2024. It would also increase the abatement threshold to $50,000 from April 1, 2026.
National has joined Labour in ending depreciation for commerical buildings.
National would keep GST on all food.
National would have full transport fares for CSC holders and young people.
National will allow foreigners to buy homes worth over $2m and charge them 15% tax – and expects around 1500 to do this each year (c$750M of tax revenue) and pass the money onto New Zealanders – adjust the tax thresholds.
(one wonders when the move to selling residency and passing the money via tax cuts will occur)
National is charging the full cost of immigration visa applications, and using this to fund the tax package
(its a start)
There’s also a tax on on-line gambling services to Kiwis (geo-blocking those who do not comply)
National already announced the FamilyBoost childcare tax rebate earlier this year, promising families earning up to $180,000 a 25 percent rebate on early childhood education expenses up to $3900 per year depending on income. That would be $75 per week.
This helps families meet the costs charged by providers (such as the Wright Family)
The policy document released on Wednesday says National "will end Labour’s extension of 20 Hours ECE to two-year-olds" as their FamilyBoost rebate will replace this.
This (like GST off fruit an vegetables and half fares for for CSC holders and young people under 24) reduces cost to families.
Yes, those New Zealanders with higher value properties for sale to foreigners would have more buyers at the auctions.
Foreigners would be interested in buying here because there is no CGT on our property, apart from the bright-line test National is reducing down to 2 years.
Apparently there were about 3000 houses worth over $2m sold pa.
Either foreigners buy up half of those homes in future – or the expectation is they will be buy up say only 1000 and the rest of the money comes from sales of others not on the market (unless values rise, because of foreign buy in) or National loosens the rules on sensitive land sales.
The fabulous tax relief package displayed today was the moment that the election result was secured. It’s embarrassing to admit that you will still vote Labour
National probably will win the election but they'll be out in three years because this election is a poison chalice. Why would anyone want to win it?!
The economy is screwed, china's slow down will ruin us and tinkering with the tax system won't stop us from being obliterated financially, the war isn't ending anytime soon and neither is inflation and the geopolitics of the pacific region are going to be a nightmare for National to navigate.
This isn't John keys centrist national, the last time a govt tried out the economic policies of act, was national in 1990-1993 and they nearly lost and would have under mmp.
National/acts entire economic philosophy is hyper immigration, a lot of of nat/act voters are anti immigration, housing is bad enough already, wait till you see how rage when nationals letting 200-300 k immigrants a year, and when health budgets are slashed and when austerity sends half out nurses overs or govt stops making contributions to their kiwi savers and due to increased poverty the crime rate soars. All while dairy prices collapse. Haha.
National and act have made enemies of iwi and the new radical Maori renosance isn't going away anytime soon and these voters are going to around for a very very long time. Enjoy that it's gonna be fun for you.
And the biggest problem facing national? Their aging voter base. More and more Boomers are dying every and more and Gen z come of voting age, every day, by not appealing to us and by locking out Gen y and Gen z from home ownership all kiwi politicians are doing is ensuring that us younger voters get more radical as we grow older, you only get more conservative if you own a home..
Young voters don't watch local TV or media or listen to radio so domestic right wing propaganda isn't going to reach them.
Also bless the hearts of those who are scared of a cgt or a wealth tax, if you only knew what Gen y and Gen z were vining.
Finally, Gen y and Gen z truly hate the cradle to the grave generation and we will be the generation that abolishes the pension. Not means tests, we will gleeful abolish it and we will say to the remaining oldies moaning "money doesn't grow on trees and you should have thought about that before you decided to grow old" it'll be stupid and short sighted but it'll feel damn good and it'll save us gargantuan amounts of money.
"$590 million on average per year Climate Dividend, returning taxes raised on climate polluters to Kiwi families rather than giving subsidies to large corporates"
We could have so much more than that if we included agriculture in the ETS – they are our largest climate polluters responsible for nearly half of all emissions
So all up…. two things emerge, this replaces Labour's GST and reduced fares up to 24 (students)/free fares for children up to 13? But gives more to young families ..on paper.? The rest matches Labour promises except for tax brackets.
It will be fine for a few, but the "backroom" public service be afraid, be very afraid. You are in for rounds of restructuring and applying for your job over and over again as they apply their sinking ceiling.
They intend to bring in the 90 day trial again, which will allow work "churn".
It will take certainty away, and people will not complain about bad practice allover again.
Banks and Real Estate Agents will be examining houses they can target to get offers over 2 million… rubbing their hands.
Asset prices will rise in anticipation of deals, and the spiral will begin again.
The drop in interest rates might not occur as usual in this situation, due to the USA playing with their rates. as our house prices soar away again rates may stay higher.
True values will be distorted once more in a very uncertain world, and builders will go back to building mansions for those who can pay, and all those new tradies won't get work, as National do their usual failure to build for public housing.
Meantime, as Ad has pointed out, we are falling into a depressed market place through trade with slowing demand from China, and with a bloody big Albatross sized Fonterra hanging on our necks, but nothing said about that problem.
Climate change will take a back seat as people struggle and compete for any jobs.imo. and small business, you will lose customers who will become unemployed and living on the breadline with no butter or spending money.
Usual story … those who only read the headlines get fooled. The details require a little more sense, or just a desire to know them. Obviously some lack one or both of these.
Underneath the headlines, what do we find?
For example …
The National Party tax policy document, released this morning, incorrectly said the regional fuel tax was there to fund Auckland Light Rail. The funding has been allocated to a range of transport projects, from car parks to bus lanes – but not light rail.
Prompting this response from radical leftie (/sarc) Auckland deputy mayor Desley Simpson:
Simpson said National's tax plan would cause a major issue for Auckland Council, which has already gone through a significant cost cutting exercise. She said the council relied on the regional fuel tax.
“If it is removed without replacement that will leave a significant hole for us,” said Simpson.
Ah – the regional fuel tax is actually used for operational spending? They must have known that. So they're removing it to give Brownie an excuse for selling the remaining airport shares. That – along with lowering fuel prices because the public won't be transitioning to electric so fast without the clean car discount. And also because they like to "own the libs" by letting CO2 emissions remain high.
Act leader David Seymour was quick to criticise the package as “loose change” and too similar to Labour’s plan.
“Tax bracket indexation is exactly what it sounds like: Labour’s tax policy adjusted for inflation.
“It’s not a tax cut, it’s tinkering that freezes the unfairness of Labour’s tax policy in time. That’s just not good enough for New Zealand, we don’t need to trim the sails, we need a turn-around job.”
Not
Green Party co-leader James Shaw was adamant National’s plan would benefit landlords and property investors over students and people on benefits.
“National’s plan is a cynical ploy to do the absolute least for middle-income earners in order to get away with tax cuts for the wealthiest few,” he said.
“Under National’s plan, people on the lowest incomes would miss out while high-income property speculators can continue to line their pockets.”
Not
NZ First leader Winston Peters believed basing an economic plan on immigration and house prices was not prudent.
“They are clearly relying on mass immigration and a mass foreign buy-up of Kiwi homes to fund its tax cuts and their ‘squeezed middle’ will be squeezed further
The most pertinent criticism is this
Work and Income
$10 to 30 a person per week tax cuts is not much when one notes the impact of the Fair Pay Agreement legislation on industry awards and migration levels on the employment market.
Rent
Rent is going up $50 a week pa atm.
$10 to $30 a week in tax cuts is not much help. Higher incomes is more important – that or a rent freeze.
Greens pose capping a rent increase at 3% pa max. Thus circa (average) $20 per week.
Greens pose capping a rent increase at 3% pa max. Thus circa (average) $20 per week.
Yeah….nah.
Insurance, Council Rates and Mortgage % rates all uncontrolled but rent capped – can someone find the idiots who are intent on sabotaging Green electability and disemploy them?
Funny that you think a policy in support of those who rent makes Greens unpopular with those who own property. Why should they care that there is help to those who cannot afford to own?
Benefits don't get tax cuts as they are paid at net rates. Only NZS benefits from tax cuts – par of the reason the gap between benefits and NZS is now so large – the other being average wage vs CPI indexation.
The policy hasn’t gone down so well with New Zealand’s other major parties, who have all expressed their disappointment with what's on offer.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson called the policy "dodgy," saying cuts to public service "will make families worse off".
"Their tax and burn plan will also pour petrol on the housing market that Labour has worked hard to rein in,” he said.
Despite what they say, the fine print of their document says health and education will be cut to find savings."
"The plan relies on more and more foreign buyers coming into the New Zealand market every year, despite putting a tax on them. It also beggars belief that there are that number of homes available every year to be bought up by foreigners to fund National’s tax cuts.”
Shaw
“National’s plan includes enormous tax cuts for people who play the property market, which we know drives house prices higher and squeezes first home buyers.
They also blasted National’s plan to roll black National’s plan to toll back the bright line test from 10 years to two years, calling it a “handout for property speculators”.
“It is ripping money away from everyone else in order to support the wealthiest few, and will be the worst possible news for first home buyers who want to be able to buy a place to put down roots.”
He said the greens policy of implementing a wealth tax was a “costed solution”.
Babelbrox (two heads two mouths, only loves those with the ambition to be trillion)
“National’s tax policy confirms there won't be any real change without ACT. Their tax cuts promise about half as much as Labour’s Michael Cullen promised 15 years ago, this policy could easily have been announced by Labour,” he said.
“National criticises Labour for spending an extra billion dollars a week, but they are promising to spend an extra $980 million a week.”
He wants to see reductions in government spending. ACT also wants to change to a two-rate tax system where the top tax rates for companies, trusts and individuals are at 28%.
Peters
He said bringing down the brightline test will mean “the housing market will spiral out of control – with empty properties being flipped for massive profits.
Peters also believes the country’s infrastructure, housing, living costs and wages won’t be able to handle National’s immigration plans.
“Low wages and high costs means we will see a flight of mainly young Kiwis out of our country.”
“This is circa 2014 all over again – a speculative consumptive economy, not a sound wealth-based, export-growth, added value way forward.”
Quite apart from their criticism by ACT that National have not planned to reduce our credit rating by adopting their own tax cut plan – David Seymour said that landlords should love ACT more than National.
National also proposed to restore interest deductibility for landlords with an expectation it would decrease rent prices. It wouldn’t be reinstated immediately upon National entering government, it would be phased in over three years.
Expected, with migration at these levels demand for housing will place upward pressure on rents.
Seymour said National should adopt Act’s plan to bring it in straight away.
“Landlords have been hit with a double whammy of rising mortgage interest rates and increasing interest deductibility limitations during a cost-of-living crisis.
“The pressure on landlords and tenants is severe and they need relief now, not in the future.”
It's interesting how both National and ACT see rents as determined by the costs of the landlord, rather than supply and demand in the market – it's as if they see a non competitive monopoly scenario where the owners run a cost plus business model. A bit like Oz banks in New Zealand or the supermarkets.
Of course this maybe just what they say to justify landlord friendly policy “for the sake of tenants” – all while using rising (immigration) demand to keep rents high and wages low.
Grifters for a rentier class, little wonder they are so well funded by those they work for.
The 2 million dollar mansions are a diversion, this is about selling the high country and the coastline properties to absentee owners. 15% on 20 million is fuck all to those arseholes. If it really is a 14.7 billion windfall you're not going to get it from selling 1500 townhouses a year.
All this "X gets Y dollars a week" is entirely missing the point (which is National's aim of course).
What matters is the underlying consequences, which will obviously be house price inflation, and then rising interest rates again.
The "squeezed middle" get $50 a week, while the home they wanted to buy goes up $1,000 a week (or much more). Of course it's their own fault, they should have been landlords.
Pity the "squeezed middle" who managed to buy their own house from November 2021 in Auckland, and who not only have to deal with increased mortgage and rates, have seen the home they now live in reduce by $1,000 a week or more.
Are people still unware of the negative equity many property owners have on their homes, due to the market downturn? They will also very likely be paying a premium for home ownership in terms of mortgage, than a renter will be paying for the same standard of house.
Paying a higher amount in mortgage on buying property than for rent has been the norm for most of history. It has been rare for it to be otherwise (low interest rates because of low inflation because of global supply efficiencies and high rent because of a housing shortage).
I personally know a young family who purchased their first property just over a year ago in Auckland. They are paying increased mortgage and rates on negative equity of around $80k.
At least acknowledge there are some in this position.
It says everything about the media's fixed perceptions that the Greens have had a tax calculator up for months, but their policies are rarely covered in the same way ("look how much cash you could win!").
Doubling the price of a service used mainly by young people and those on lower incomes to support tax cuts that mostly benefit people on higher incomes.
That's how these arseholes roll.
The National Party is proposing to cancel a Government public transport programme, which would effectively double fares for some people.
In National's newly announced tax plan, the party identified a number of programmes that it would end, allowing it to reprioritise the money spent on them to pay for the proposed tax relief.
The risk of doing poorly in an election following a highly successful one is the impact on the number of list seats for Labour post-election. Labour could retain up to 35 electorate seats where very large majorities were established, or high profile sitting Ministers hold the seat. Currently polling in the high 20's and, in my view, likely to slide further, there are some huge names for the party unlikely to be returned to Parliament.
A sub-30% on election day likely means goodbye to list candidates Grant Robertson, Ayesha Verrall, Willie Jackson, Adrian Rurawhe, Andrew Little, David Parker. Unlikely to re-win their electorates and possibly out of Parliament are Jan Tineti and Ginny Anderson.
It will be an evisceration of Labour's front line and their handful of best performers. Left behind will be a pool of B- and C-list potential future Ministers. And the party leader responsible for this mess.
That implies that a negative swing in party votes is generally more marked than a negative swing in electorate votes – in the same election. The opposite could also be theoretically true. Are there any examples of either?
Every NZ election this century the negative swing in party votes(whoever it is against) is more pronounced than in electorate votes. Of course I could cherry pick some anecdotal ones but that glares over the other variables such as name recognition, previous term performance, approach to electoral duties. And you could counter with other anecdotes.
I don't agree with the pessimistic forecast on the party vote, but even if we accept that premise, Labour would not have more than 25 electorates, max.
A top-up of only 10 from the party list (again, accepting your pessimistic premise) sees most of those you name being returned.
It would have to be a sub-20% party vote for your prediction to be borne out, and of course that would also mean fewer electorates held.
An electorate-only caucus is not remotely feasible.
I don't agree with the pessimistic forecast on the party vote, but even if we accept that premise, Labour would not have more than 25 electorates, max.
Only 29 electorate seats with 37% of the vote in 2017, yet 27 seats with only 25% of the vote in 2014.
Ardern bumped up the vote, but little move in electorates till the National party vote collapsed in 2020.
The range of the party vote is 25-35%, electorate numbers will depend on how ACT/Green/NZF/TPM/TOP voters vote in general electorates.
Thanks – interesting to know. I will be keeping an eye out for it and whether the phenomenon is strong enough to have the effect you describe. (Observer 20.1.1.1 seems to think it won’t be)
I see you're missing the key election though, 202p where Labour won an absolutely unprecedented 46 electorate seats. In order to return list MPs to Parliament, Labour will need to lose more than 10 electorates at 30% of the vote, and more than 16 electorates at 25% of the party vote. Just to return their finance minister. Some of those previously upheld seats were won by MPs who are now cabinet ministers and others by such a margin the electorate vote would need to swing disproportionately against Labour compared to the historical trend.
Obviously it's all speculation until the voters have their say, but the unprecedented results in 2020 may be followed by an unprecedented catastrophe for Labour list MPs this election.
There's a good chance the highly ranked Police and Education Ministers won't hold the electorates they took by small margins. In order to return, say, Cabinet list MP David Parker, Labour would need to lose an unlikely number of electorates. Andrew Little is also very precarious. And it's not unreasonable to foresee Robertson gone.
No, it is unreasonable. You're not making credible assumptions.
Let's test them. Let's say Labour only win 30 seats (again, I don't predict that at all, but your predictions are based on this worst case scenario – worse than National 2020, even, which is really stretching it).
What is the 30th ranked electorate that Labour would hold? Napier or East Coast with brand new candidates? Or what? (Incumbency gives an advantage, but a lot of Labour electorates are not being fought by incumbents).
If Labour are holding onto those kind of seats then the swing is bad, but not low 20s bad. So there will be list MPs elected.
Labour and National have never created an overhang, or come anywhere near it. That's pretty clear evidence.
The new Victoria University Vice-Chancellor decided to have a forum at the university about free speech and academic freedom as it is obviously a topical issue, and the Government is looking at legislating some carrots or sticks for universities to uphold their obligations under the Education and Training Act. They ...
Do you remember when Melania Trump got caught out using a speech that sounded awfully like one Michelle Obama had given? Uncannily so.Well it turns out that Abraham Lincoln is to Winston Peters as Michelle was to Melania. With the ANZAC speech Uncle Winston gave at Gallipoli having much in ...
She was born 25 years ago today in North Shore hospital. Her eyes were closed tightly shut, her mouth was silently moving. The whole theatre was all quiet intensity as they marked her a 2 on the APGAR test. A one-minute eternity later, she was an 8. The universe was ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is Antarctica gaining land ice? ...
Images of US students (and others) protesting and setting up tent cities on US university campuses have been broadcast world wide and clearly demonstrate the growing rifts in US society caused by US policy toward Israel and Israel’s prosecution of … Continue reading → ...
Barrie Saunders writes – Dear Paul As the new Minister of Media and Communications, you will be inundated with heaps of free advice and special pleading, all in the national interest of course. For what it’s worth here is my assessment: Traditional broadcasting free to air content through ...
Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its arguments for such a bold reform. ...
Peter Dunne writes – The great nineteenth British Prime Minister, William Gladstone, once observed that “the first essential for a Prime Minister is to be a good butcher.” When a later British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, sacked a third of his Cabinet in July 1962, in what became ...
Ele Ludemann writes – New Zealanders had the OECD’s second highest tax increase last year: New Zealanders faced the second-biggest tax raises in the developed world last year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says. The intergovernmental agency said the average change in personal income tax ...
We all know something’s not right with our elections. The spread of misinformation, people being targeted with soundbites and emotional triggers that ignore the facts, even the truth, and influence their votes.The use of technology to produce deep fakes. How can you tell if something is real or not? Can ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Simon Clark. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). This year you will be lied to! Simon Clark helps prebunk some misleading statements you'll hear about climate. The video includes ...
It is all very well cutting the backrooms of public agencies but it may compromise the frontlines. One of the frustrations of the Productivity Commission’s 2017 review of universities is that while it observed that their non-academic staff were increasing faster than their academic staff, it did not bother to ...
Buzz from the Beehive Two speeches delivered by Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters at Anzac Day ceremonies in Turkey are the only new posts on the government’s official website since the PM announced his Cabinet shake-up. In one of the speeches, Peters stated the obvious: we live in a troubled ...
1. Which of these would you not expect to read in The Waikato Invader?a. Luxon is here to do business, don’t you worry about thatb. Mr KPI expects results, and you better believe itc. This decisive man of action is getting me all hot and excitedd. Melissa Lee is how ...
…it has a restricted jurisdiction which must not be abused: it is not an inquisitionNOTE – this article was published before the High Court ruled that Karen Chhour does not have to appear before the Waitangi Tribunal Gary Judd writes – The High Court ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – One of reasons Oranga Tamariki exists is to prevent child neglect. But could the organisation itself be guilty of the same?Oranga Tamariki’s statistics show a decrease in the number and age of children in care. “There are less children ...
David Farrar writes: Graeme Edgeler wrote in 2017: In the first five years after three strikes came into effect 5248 offenders received a ‘first strike’ (that is, a “stage-1 conviction” under the three strikes sentencing regime), and 68 offenders received a ‘second strike’. In the five years prior to ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in politics. That’s refreshing and will be extremely ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the two days to 6:06am on Thursday, April 25:Politics: PM Christopher Luxon has set up a dual standard for ministerial competence by demoting two National Cabinet ministers while leaving also-struggling ...
Hi,Today I mainly want to share some of your thoughts about the recent piece I wrote about success and failure, and the forces that seemingly guide our lives. But first, a quick bit of housekeeping: I am doing a Webworm popup in Los Angeles on Saturday May 11 at 2pm. ...
It is hard to see what Melissa Lee might have done to “save” the media. National went into the election with no public media policy and appears not to have developed one subsequently. Lee claimed that she had prepared a policy paper before the election but it had been decided ...
Open access notablesIce acceleration and rotation in the Greenland Ice Sheet interior in recent decades, Løkkegaard et al., Communications Earth & Environment:In the past two decades, mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated, partly due to the speedup of glaciers. However, uncertainty in speed derived from satellite products ...
Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...
Mr Bombastic:Ironically, the media the academic experts wanted is, in many ways, the media they got. In place of the tyrannical editors of yesteryear, advancing without fear or favour the interests of the ruling class; the New Zealand news media of today boasts a troop of enlightened journalists dedicated to ...
It's hard times try to make a livingYou wake up every morning in the unforgivingOut there somewhere in the cityThere's people living lives without mercy or pityI feel good, yeah I'm feeling fineI feel better then I have for the longest timeI think these pills have been good for meI ...
In 1974, the US Supreme Court issued its decision in United States v. Nixon, finding that the President was not a King, but was subject to the law and was required to turn over the evidence of his wrongdoing to the courts. It was a landmark decision for the rule ...
Every day now just seems to bring in more fresh meat for the grinder.In their relentlessly ideological drive to cut back on the “excessive bloat” (as they see it) of the previous Labour-led government, on the mountains of evidence accumulated in such a short period of time do not ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Megan Valére SosouMarket gardening site of the Itchèléré de Itagui agricultural cooperative in Dassa-Zoumè (Image credit: Megan Valère Sossou) For the residents of Dassa-Zoumè, a city in the West African country of Benin, choosing between drinking water and having enough ...
Buzz from the Beehive Melissa Lee – as may be discerned from the screenshot above – has not been demoted for doing something seriously wrong as Minister of ...
Morning in London Mother hugs beloved daughter outside the converted shoe factory in which she is living.Afternoon in London Travelling writer takes himself and his wrist down to A&E, just to be sure. Read more ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – The recent announcement of the University Advisory Group, chaired by Sir Peter Gluckman, makes very clear where the Government’s focus and priorities lie. The remit of the Advisory Group is that Group members will consider challenges and opportunities for improvement in the university sector including: ...
Eric Crampton writes – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand desperately wants to find reasons to have workstreams in climate change. It makes little sense. They’ve run another stress test on the banks looking to see if they could find a prudential regulation case. They couldn’t. They ...
Rob MacCullough writes – Pundits from the left and the right are arguing that National’s Fast Track Bill that is designed to speed up infrastructure decisions could end up becoming mired in a cesspool of corruption. Political commentator ...
Looking at the headlines this morning it’s hard to feel anything other than pessimistic about the future of humanity.Note that I’m not speaking about the future of mankind, but the survival of our humanity. The values that we believe in seem to be ebbing away, by the day.Perhaps every generation ...
Swabbing mixed breed baby chicks to test for avian influenzaUh oh. Bird flu – often deadly to humans – is not only being transmitted from infected birds to dairy cows, but is now travelling between dairy cows. As of last Friday, Bloomberg News reports, there were 32 American dairy herds ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
What is it with the mining industry? Its not enough for them to pillage the earth - they apparently can't even be bothered getting resource consent to do so: The proponent behind a major mine near the Clutha River had already been undertaking activity in the area without a ...
Photo # 1 I am a huge fan of Singapore’s approach to housing, as described here two years ago by copying and pasting from The ConversationWhat Singapore has that Australia does not is a public housing developer, the Housing Development Board, which puts new dwellings on public and reclaimed land, ...
Buzz from the Beehive Reactions to news of the government’s readiness to make urgent changes to “the resource management system” through a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) suggest a balanced approach is being taken. The Taxpayers’ Union says the proposed changes don’t go far enough. Greenpeace says ...
I’m starting to wonder if Anna Burns-Francis might be the best political interviewer we’ve got. That might sound unlikely to you, it came as a bit of a surprise to me.Jack Tame can be excellent, but has some pretty average days. I like Rebecca Wright on Newshub, she asks good ...
Chris Trotter writes – Willie Jackson is said to be planning a “media summit” to discuss “the state of the media and how to protect Fourth Estate Journalism”. Not only does the Editor of The Daily Blog, Martyn Bradbury, think this is a good idea, but he has also ...
Graeme Edgeler writes – This morning [April 21], the Wellington High Court is hearing a judicial review brought by Hon. Karen Chhour, the Minister for Children, against a decision of the Waitangi Tribunal. This is unusual, judicial reviews are much more likely to brought against ministers, rather than ...
Both of Parliament’s watchdogs have now ripped into the Government’s Fast-track Approvals Bill. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s political economy and beyond on the morning of Tuesday, April 23 are:The Lead: The Auditor General,John Ryan, has joined the ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarah SpengemanPeople wait to board an electric bus in Pune, India. (Image credit: courtesy of ITDP) Public transportation riders in Pune, India, love the city’s new electric buses so much they will actually skip an older diesel bus that ...
The infrastructure industry yesterday issued a “hurry up” message to the Government, telling it to get cracking on developing a pipeline of infrastructure projects.The hiatus around the change of Government has seen some major projects cancelled and others delayed, and there is uncertainty about what will happen with the new ...
Hi,Over the weekend I revisited a podcast I really adore, Dead Eyes. It’s about a guy who got fired from Band of Brothers over two decades ago because Tom Hanks said he had “dead eyes”.If you don’t recall — 2001’s Band of Brothers was part of the emerging trend of ...
Buzz from the Beehive The 180 or so recipients of letters from the Government telling them how to submit infrastructure projects for “fast track” consideration includes some whose project applications previously have been rejected by the courts. News media were quick to feature these in their reports after RMA Reform Minister Chris ...
It would not be a desirable way to start your holiday by breaking your back, your head, or your wrist, but on our first hour in Singapore I gave it a try.We were chatting, last week, before we started a meeting of Hazel’s Enviro Trust, about the things that can ...
Calling all journalists, academics, planners, lawyers, political activists, environmentalists, and other members of the public who believe that the relationships between vested interests and politicians need to be scrutinised. We need to work together to make sure that the new Fast-Track Approvals Bill – currently being pushed through by the ...
Feel worried. Shane Jones and a couple of his Cabinet colleagues are about to be granted the power to override any and all objections to projects like dams, mines, roads etc even if: said projects will harm biodiversity, increase global warming and cause other environmental harms, and even if ...
Bryce Edwards writes- The ability of the private sector to quickly establish major new projects making use of the urban and natural environment is to be supercharged by the new National-led Government. Yesterday it introduced to Parliament one of its most significant reforms, the Fast Track Approvals Bill. ...
Michael Bassett writes – If you think there is a move afoot by the radical Maori fringe of New Zealand society to create a parallel system of government to the one that we elect at our triennial elections, you aren’t wrong. Over the last few days we have ...
Without a corresponding drop in interest rates, it’s doubtful any changes to the CCCFA will unleash a massive rush of home buyers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The six things that stood out to me in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Monday, April 22 included:The Government making a ...
Sunday was a lazy day. I started watching Jack Tame on Q&A, the interviews are usually good for something to write about. Saying the things that the politicians won’t, but are quite possibly thinking. Things that are true and need to be extracted from between the lines.As you might know ...
In our Weekly Roundup last week we covered news from Auckland Transport that the WX1 Western Express is going to get an upgrade next year with double decker electric buses. As part of the announcement, AT also said “Since we introduced the WX1 Western Express last November we have seen ...
TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to April 29 include:PM Christopher Luxon is scheduled to hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4 pm today. Stats NZ releases its statutory report on Census 2023 tomorrow.Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivers a pre-Budget speech at ...
A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 14, 2024 thru Sat, April 20, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week hinges on these words from the abstract of a fresh academic ...
The ability of the private sector to quickly establish major new projects making use of the urban and natural environment is to be supercharged by the new National-led Government. Yesterday it introduced to Parliament one of its most significant reforms, the Fast Track Approvals Bill. The Government says this will ...
This is a column to say thank you. So many of have been in touch since Mum died to say so many kind and thoughtful things. You’re wonderful, all of you. You’ve asked how we’re doing, how Dad’s doing. A little more realisation each day, of the irretrievable finality of ...
Identifying the engine type in your car is crucial for various reasons, including maintenance, repairs, and performance upgrades. Knowing the specific engine model allows you to access detailed technical information, locate compatible parts, and make informed decisions about modifications. This comprehensive guide will provide you with a step-by-step approach to ...
Introduction: The allure of racing is undeniable. The thrill of speed, the roar of engines, and the exhilaration of competition all contribute to the allure of this adrenaline-driven sport. For those who yearn to experience the pinnacle of racing, becoming a race car driver is the ultimate dream. However, the ...
Introduction Automobiles have become ubiquitous in modern society, serving as a primary mode of transportation and a symbol of economic growth and personal mobility. With countless vehicles traversing roads and highways worldwide, it begs the question: how many cars are there in the world? Determining the precise number is a ...
Maintaining a safe and reliable vehicle requires regular inspections. Whether it’s a routine maintenance checkup or a safety inspection, knowing how long the process will take can help you plan your day accordingly. This article delves into the factors that influence the duration of a car inspection and provides an ...
Mazda Motor Corporation, commonly known as Mazda, is a Japanese multinational automaker headquartered in Fuchu, Aki District, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan. The company was founded in 1920 as the Toyo Cork Kogyo Co., Ltd., and began producing vehicles in 1931. Mazda is primarily known for its production of passenger cars, but ...
Your car battery is an essential component that provides power to start your engine, operate your electrical systems, and store energy. Over time, batteries can weaken and lose their ability to hold a charge, which can lead to starting problems, power failures, and other issues. Replacing your battery before it ...
In most states, you cannot register a car without a valid driver’s license. However, there are a few exceptions to this rule. Exceptions to the RuleIf you are under 18 years old: In some states, you can register a car in your name even if you do not ...
Mazda, a Japanese automotive manufacturer with a rich history of innovation and engineering excellence, has emerged as a formidable player in the global car market. Known for its reputation of producing high-quality, fuel-efficient, and driver-oriented vehicles, Mazda has consistently garnered praise from industry experts and consumers alike. In this article, ...
Struts are an essential part of a car’s suspension system. They are responsible for supporting the weight of the car and damping the oscillations of the springs. Struts are typically made of steel or aluminum and are filled with hydraulic fluid. How Do Struts Work? Struts work by transferring the ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
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New name Aryans & CONSPIRACY
Theorists .Seymour wants us to see less he is always first on the bandwagon to call for any govt MP's to resign.Come on Seymour set the example .
Luxon has thrown Seymour under the Bus by not giving Seymour a free lunch in Epsom sending a clear message to Seymour pull your head in.Or you won't be in Parliament.Given the Scandal's around ACT at the moment .ACT could be in serious trouble.Priceless the look on Seymours face when Media asking him awkward questions.Luxons favourite attack line a desperate coalition on the left when Luxon has Peters and Seymour .
Seymour’s in trouble in Epsom? About as much chance of the Epsom mob changing their recipe as Reefton being declared the capital.
Not if Seymour and ACT keep having dodgy mysoginist , racist, conspiracy theorist candidates exposed .
Dream on.
ACT are reliably polling above 10%.
Epsom voters faced with voting for Seymour if Act has dodgy misogynist, racist, conspiracy theorist candidates? No contest, Seymour by miles.
That makes Epsom voting for ACT more likely.
Luxon needs to have a cup of tea with Paul Goldsmith.
dodgy mysoginist , racist, conspiracy theorist pretty much describes his voters.
A farmer wonders where the wool industry has gone.
After multiple decades of resisting wool grower levies for innovation, zero resistance to scouring plants being sent offshore, the offshoring of nearly all wool clothing manufacuring, and nothing but farmer moaning, an entire region shifts from growing sheep to grapes.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/132833259/stuck-in-the-middle-with-ewes-sheep-farmer-baffled-by-wools-demise
Not like he hasn't had time to shift to Merino where all the clothing brands of Glowing Sky, Macpac, Icebreaker, Swanndri etc have sourced their cloth needs since the 1980s.
Oh no we're going to have to find more productive uses for land. What a quandary.
Ad, not all lowland sheep country is suitable for rasing merinos. Their feet are susceptible to foot rot and they therefore thrive on drier country. In NZ they do best on the dry high country of the South Island though there will be pockets of suitable country throughout the country.
NZ has had a coarse wool industry second to none for carpets etc. Silly decisions by Govt to allow govt funded places such as schools to buy solution dyed nylon carpets will not be helping our coarse wool industry.
Quite apart from being petroleum based (why would we be wanting this stuff in our homes & schools) nylon does not have much going for it. Old wool carpet can be recycled and fades away to nothing if used as a weed suppressant at the end of it life on your floor. .
OK, that explains why no merino sheep farming is taking place in Waikato.
But even if only coarse wool can be produced, I would like NZ farmers to succeed at that. Natural fibre beats synthetic any day for me. Hopefully international markets will come around.
I couldn't agree more HT11.
NZ farmers have suffered also with the removal of tariffs, the nurturing of home manufacturing and allowing all sorts of synthetic fibres to come in to NZ.
Synthetic fibres sit like stodge in our waste systems. We even export wool bales of the stuff to developing countries (why?).
But don't start me on textile waste and the lack of use of natural/recycleable/degradeable fabrics….it is one of my hobby horses.
Ad farmers are short sighted I talked to many farmers around 2008/9 about the wool levy they were about to abolish.Not only did wool growers abolish the 15 cent a kilo wool levy for research and development of more value adding to wool.Farmers said they couldn't afford it and after only a few years no breakthroughs had been made which was totally untrue (farmer's just looking for the short term)The wool research institute had made several major breakthroughs on wool.How ever National made the decision to close the wool research institute being the pro farming party I knew this was the dumbest idea like really dumb.Natonal closed the wool research facility and 2 of the world's top wool researchers were made redundant. South Africa bought them and their research for next to nothing after $millions had been spent.What farmers failed to understand is that it takes 15 years of continuous research on average to make major break through.The wool research institute had made major break through after less than 10 yrs research making superior fireproofclothing ,machine washable wool and a process that cut out the need to weave or knit wool.The Nitwts at National and federated farmers had blunderedbadly and now it costs more to shear sheep than the fleece is worth.Ad Merino wool has to be micro fine to be of any value.So Ad growing Merino on lusher pastures means coarser wool.
Good reminders there.
The carpet thing almost needs a post by itself.
Also the destruction of small NZ textile manufacturers who were working with wool etc. Very progressive, not, at the time to close them and allow a tsunami of synthetics made in factories where modern employment law and protections for workers was missing.
Strong wool can also be used for felted weed cloth (prevents erosion, retains slopes, allows seed germination, 100% biodegradeable) and for sound control felt boards (use in schools, offices, large open areas) and could also be used to make insulating board for floors, walls and ceilings (like the old Pinex board) for homes which can't have other insulation installed.
Wool is going to waste in NZ every day. It's terrible.
My recollection of when the voted to kill levies it was because the wool board or WHT ever they called them self them where just a bunch of do nothing tougher living on the farmers back, was only on the fringe of the farming industry then so this is pure anecdata
Also farmers have been led badly by the people who are supposed to advocate for them – Federated Farmers. FF has become little more than a rural National Party sub-committee content to chant out their mantra "National good, Labour bad" and dump on any farmer who dares to say otherwise.
Yes that is true Mike the Lefty. My Bro in law left the Feds years ago after being criticised for his fenced riparian plantings to protect his streams, which at the time were seen as akin to some form of bad thinking – perhaps socialism or even communism. (only slight exaggeration)
While I suspect the links between FF & the Nats have always been a bit closer than between FF & the left it did not used to be so screechy and bad – remembering that Ruth Richardson was a Fed Farmers office holder before becoming an MP.
We now have had the Feds, in my view, not clearly distinguishing themselves from the likes of the Howl of a Protest people (McKenzie and Paterson) which in large measure was an anti female, anti Jacinda Ardern being a female PM as well as everything else.
Fed Farmers used to be most aware of the need to work with all types of Govt and therefore to more or less walk down the middle. This seems to have been lost of late in my view.
An ACT member shared with me that they want to arm all police officers.
I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to allow the public to have access to firearms for…self-defence as well.
Has Hipkins ruled out crACT as a coalition partner…yet?
YES.
Stuff is doing a rolling coverage of campaign events as they happen. The Nat's tax plans are due to be released at 10:30 this morning.
This much has already been revealed if some of TS's wiz kids want to start on the numbers:
As a supperannuant living alone do I get nothing. That would be right. Such individuals are no doubt at the bottom of NAct's barrel.
Edit: after all the whinging and moaning about Labour’s package not starting until next year, I note there’s will not come into effect until July of next year.
Link please.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300960309/election-2023-live-national-set-to-release-new-tax-plan
Haha oh lordie it seems that the National Party is really keen to popularise "fortnight, fortnight, fortnight" – Could it be the per week amount sounds like shit?
"Minimum wage workers offered a part of a block of cheese taxcut"
that should be the MSM headline
Ten dollars a week doesn't buy much cheese does it?
Wonder how much loxon and willis will get from the tax cut
Just did the calculations, anyone earning over $60k pa (with no children) get $60 extra a fortnight.
Did you say $30.00 a week?
I get paid fortnightly so budget accordingly.
I think the reason that the payments are expressed fortnightly is that where benefits and super is concerned these are paid fortnightly. Public sector salaried people are paid fortnightly.
I budget fortnightly. Others paid weekly would budget weekly. No skin off anyone's nose how it is expressed, surely.
Meaningless. In fact, Luxon will get many thousands of dollars extra from his 7 properties.
I don't actually believe he proposes these policies only to enrich himself, because he's already very wealthy. But it is certainly to enrich donors to the National Party. The "quid pro quo" is obvious, hence the flood of money into party coffers now.
Which leads one to wonder… how many donors to the National Party were wittingly made aware of what they were planning in order to increase their coffers tenfold.
What a bunch of miserable, greedy rogues who have no care for anyone other than themselves.
The same as a family on 120k. The top rate isn't changing
That’ll depend on their salaries after 14 Oct.
There was a very similar headline in 2008 under the Clark government.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/454946/The-block-of-cheese-Budget-2008.
If its National's idea I suppose it is OK, according to National think-tanks like the ODT and the Granny Herald.
I think I would rather hear amounts being expressed as so much/fortnight then the way Robertson does it.
When he talks about savings we find that he talks about X dollars per four years!
I thought that the only people who used units like that as a time period were the IOC.
So, households on the average income will get $50 per week. Not exactly mind-blowing given the cost of living expenses but some help.
So those whose income is below average range from $25 a week to $8 a week depending on circumstances. Oh boy, that's going to help pay for the ever increasing rates and insurances plus petrol etc. many of us still have to find out of our meagre incomes.
And what about those in the upper income bracket? Have they been inadvertently left off the list? (sarc)
The tax cuts end at $78,000. Peak at around $30 a person and $60 for a couple with no children.
National – average family – the $50 a week tax cuts plus $25 tax credit and maybe some childcare rebate up to $80 a week (if children under 5).
Labour – average family – $25 tax credit, cheaper food ($5), those under 24 half fare, under 12 free PT.
The wealthy get foreign buyer interest in higher value property (pushing up the value of their home).
$60 for a couple with no children.
Shouldn't that say "$60 for a couple with no children and two incomes".
I see nothing there that says unwell and disabled partners not working will get $30-00 per week..
Anyone with a chronic illness will need that much to cover Dr and reinstated Chemist.
Experience says you go back to user pays, 90 day trials, poor contracts, with lack of protections and no certainty, and this will not really be a benefit except on paper and work best for the already well off.
Let us see where the four revenue streams are squeezed from.
We already have this – 1 member of the family had their cancer return – had to go private for all steps $50k later and we are all on the road to recovery AGAIN. So where is the public health system ?? Labour and their management of this country is causing more and more families to become working poor. And not forget lack of wage increases for many and meteoric mortgage increases. About time people in govt and supporting them get some real life experiences to perhaps appreciate how tough it has been for many over the last 3 years. So I question your comment, many already are covering such costs and much more . Screw the working man’s political party because they have already screwed us🤯🤬
What of that would be different under National policy – apart from the end of Fair Pay Agreements?
There would have been lots less old and unwell people to support because covid would have killed them under nact
What HAS happened under labour and how its results are what we have experienced. Real life cases none of this hypothetical crap that we hear from ministers and PMs …experienced. From previous experiences with the same cancer life was easier both under Clark and Key. And bwaghorn if it wasn’t for our ability to pay Labour govt would have another death so you can f?()$ off with your crap comment.
My wife's sister has had cancer four times in the last forty years and all helped and supported and recovered through the public health system. Not a cent spent privately. Other family members with cancer have had no trouble getting treatment.
What is noticeable is demand is higher as population ages but I don't blame current government for that – previous ones should have been investing and training for this time which was entirely predictable.
Those earlier governments fucked this up – including as a result of a stupid DHB structure that encouraged waiting lists to get funding and non-co-operation across NZ.
You're trying to blame today for the malaise of the past.
100% DoS.
@ Descendant of Smith (5.1.1.2.1) … Absolutely spot on. Well said.
I've been saying for years, previous governments knew there would be an aging Kiwi population (post WWII), likely requiring more health, housing, social and other government services further down the track, from the 2000s onward. So there has been plenty of time for past administrations to prepare for this eventuality. After all, we boomers haven't just popped up in the last shower of rain have we? We've been on the radar since the 1940s!
I'm sorry for your situation,
Bit go look at the death tolls of any country run by right wing governments due to covid,
ACT is proposing to end the link between super payment levels and the net average wage and limit any increase to the CPI.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/winston-peters-sounds-alarm-on-acts-proposed-changes-to-superannuation/IDBTQYV32RHXDL4ABVBCGIQVMY/
The quotes above indicate Seymour is either confused and out of his depth or lying – how can they budget for a reduced cost of super and also say if the change disadvantaged anyone they would reverse it?
How does it become more affordable to government with the change and those on super not be worse off?
Don't get old, and definitely don't even think about getting sick in NZ. And if you're considering a vote for ACT (and by extension, National), make sure you have insurance for absolutely everything- redundancy, unemployment, trauma, comprehensive health, your savings, absolutely every eventuality. Because the ultimate aim of their exercise is survival of the fittest- sorry, richest.
New Zealand Superannuation rates are currently linked to the CPI rate. The change from average wage indexation took effect from from 1 April 2023.
Chippie and Grant were very proud of the change.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-superannuation-rates-2023-how-much-more-will-you-get/HJEDMK3C4VHVPHLSRYOHZ6FQ2Q/
To post that, without noting that the change is a temporary one – only made because of the current high levels of inflation, is entering the Seymour stratosphere for misrepresentation.
Due to the even great inequity triggered by the sudden inflation spike. This needs to become a permanent feature, agreed to by governments of all stripes. Yeah, right.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/govt-explores-raising-annual-benefit-increases-by-indexing-to-higher-of-average-wage-or-inflation/SP7FSYYSYZHMVJOGZ3INGJ6NXQ/
Are you trying to say that the change to CPI linkage when made in a period of higher inflation harms superannuatants?
You are smart enough to know a Labour Government will move between a CPI and Wage linkage to use whichever benefits superannuatants the most.
The ACT statement is that they will increase hardship to superannuatants.
Please try to stop being a disingenuous arsehole.
I am not saying anything like that.
And I certainly don't know, or believe, "a Labour Government will move between a CPI and Wage linkage to use whichever benefits superannuitants the most.".
A Labour Government will do whatever benefits that Government. The benefit to any other group is of very little interest to them compared to their own interests. All Governments tend to lean that way.
I would greatly prefer that there be very carefully thought through, and agreed, rules for setting such things as benefit levels rather than politicians setting such levels based on how they feel that morning or who last spoke to them, or what their polling company tells them may help their popularity levels.
The Labour Government has already changed linkages between payments and CPI / Wages – these changes were made to and have benefitted the recipients
The ACT Party proposes changes in CPI to harm the recipients
You state a desire for rules for setting such things as benefit levels. I doubt you want to improve the life of the recipients
Actually NZ Super is adjusted by CPI and the current Government did nothing to change the rules (they are an Act of parliament). There is a minimum (and maximum) level versus NAW which is what was triggered this year.
The Act is here: https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2001/0084/latest/whole.html
See s15 for CPI increase and s16 for the minimum.
What Act are proposing is to remove the requirements of s16. I believe this was the case quite some time ago and Govts made ad-hoc increases until the corridor was enacted (and that has also been changed subsequently to the current levels).
Credit where credit is due, that's a good tax policy by National.
I hope it gives Hipkins and Labour the impetus to realize his captains call on wealth taxes etc, was wrong.
National have laid down the gauntlet, come on Labour $4 off your grocery shop isn't going to cut it. Time to step up!
Read it again and translate all the $$$ per fortnight to per week. (meh)
Then wonder what they will cut to pay for it?
Or will it again be a case of "National's magical efficency tree" which can support any unfunded Election promise?
They reckon they can pay for it in two ways:
Juicing the economy with high immigration and rising house prices – the Key playbook.
*mysteriously: An important point here is whether the $2M requires an official valuation or is just what someone is prepared to pay for it.
There will be a valuation for Rates purposes. And 2M+ won't buy you much in my street. The land value alone for a 340m2 site is $1.75 million. City fringe and fortunately heritage overlaid, so not a target for developers.
Re Nats Tax Policy— at what age do children stop being children? Asking for a squeezed-middle friend…..
The package as related to children.
National has the same increase in WFF tax credit as Labour – $25 a week (under 18)
It also has its Child Care Rebate up to $80 a week for those with such under 5 costs – whereas Labour directly subsidises 20 hours care for those 2 to age 3.
Oh and the loss of half price PT fares for those age 12 to 24 and free PT for children under 12.
DETAIL
National is proposing the same change On Working for Families – $25 per week from April 1, 2024. It would also increase the abatement threshold to $50,000 from April 1, 2026.
National has joined Labour in ending depreciation for commerical buildings.
National would keep GST on all food.
National would have full transport fares for CSC holders and young people.
National will allow foreigners to buy homes worth over $2m and charge them 15% tax – and expects around 1500 to do this each year (c$750M of tax revenue) and pass the money onto New Zealanders – adjust the tax thresholds.
(one wonders when the move to selling residency and passing the money via tax cuts will occur)
National is charging the full cost of immigration visa applications, and using this to fund the tax package
(its a start)
There’s also a tax on on-line gambling services to Kiwis (geo-blocking those who do not comply)
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-national-s-14-6-billion-tax-relief-plan-to-be-funded-by-new-tax-other-changes.html
Other
This helps families meet the costs charged by providers (such as the Wright Family)
This (like GST off fruit an vegetables and half fares for for CSC holders and young people under 24) reduces cost to families.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-national-s-14-6-billion-tax-relief-plan-to-be-funded-by-new-tax-other-changes.html
Partially funded by selling nz houses to rich foreign investors, to harvest capital gains from , fuck muppets
Yes, those New Zealanders with higher value properties for sale to foreigners would have more buyers at the auctions.
Foreigners would be interested in buying here because there is no CGT on our property, apart from the bright-line test National is reducing down to 2 years.
Natz have always maintained foreign buyers were an insignificant % of house buyers!
So won't raise much at all…then.
Apparently there were about 3000 houses worth over $2m sold pa.
Either foreigners buy up half of those homes in future – or the expectation is they will be buy up say only 1000 and the rest of the money comes from sales of others not on the market (unless values rise, because of foreign buy in) or National loosens the rules on sensitive land sales.
The fabulous tax relief package displayed today was the moment that the election result was secured. It’s embarrassing to admit that you will still vote Labour
ACT calls it risible and no real change from Labour.
Most New Zealanders are better off under Green or TPM or TOP alternatives.
GR and DP wealth tax plans, if adopted by Labour, would have done the same.
You’ll get over your embarrassment. Stop talking to yourself and looking at yourself in the mirror, as you sound like a puber on steroids.
National probably will win the election but they'll be out in three years because this election is a poison chalice. Why would anyone want to win it?!
The economy is screwed, china's slow down will ruin us and tinkering with the tax system won't stop us from being obliterated financially, the war isn't ending anytime soon and neither is inflation and the geopolitics of the pacific region are going to be a nightmare for National to navigate.
This isn't John keys centrist national, the last time a govt tried out the economic policies of act, was national in 1990-1993 and they nearly lost and would have under mmp.
National/acts entire economic philosophy is hyper immigration, a lot of of nat/act voters are anti immigration, housing is bad enough already, wait till you see how rage when nationals letting 200-300 k immigrants a year, and when health budgets are slashed and when austerity sends half out nurses overs or govt stops making contributions to their kiwi savers and due to increased poverty the crime rate soars. All while dairy prices collapse. Haha.
National and act have made enemies of iwi and the new radical Maori renosance isn't going away anytime soon and these voters are going to around for a very very long time. Enjoy that it's gonna be fun for you.
And the biggest problem facing national? Their aging voter base. More and more Boomers are dying every and more and Gen z come of voting age, every day, by not appealing to us and by locking out Gen y and Gen z from home ownership all kiwi politicians are doing is ensuring that us younger voters get more radical as we grow older, you only get more conservative if you own a home..
Young voters don't watch local TV or media or listen to radio so domestic right wing propaganda isn't going to reach them.
Also bless the hearts of those who are scared of a cgt or a wealth tax, if you only knew what Gen y and Gen z were vining.
Finally, Gen y and Gen z truly hate the cradle to the grave generation and we will be the generation that abolishes the pension. Not means tests, we will gleeful abolish it and we will say to the remaining oldies moaning "money doesn't grow on trees and you should have thought about that before you decided to grow old" it'll be stupid and short sighted but it'll feel damn good and it'll save us gargantuan amounts of money.
"$590 million on average per year Climate Dividend, returning taxes raised on climate polluters to Kiwi families rather than giving subsidies to large corporates"
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/30/nationals-tax-plan-and-how-it-will-be-funded-revealed/
Liked this point from National.
Isn't the point of a carbon tax to reduce carbon !
How will giving that money to families combat climate change, ?
He'll my 50 a fortnight might go into the holiday kitty for a flight to oz!!
People aren't stupid. They will spend it where their need is greatest.
We could have so much more than that if we included agriculture in the ETS – they are our largest climate polluters responsible for nearly half of all emissions
+100
So all up…. two things emerge, this replaces Labour's GST and reduced fares up to 24 (students)/free fares for children up to 13? But gives more to young families ..on paper.? The rest matches Labour promises except for tax brackets.
It will be fine for a few, but the "backroom" public service be afraid, be very afraid. You are in for rounds of restructuring and applying for your job over and over again as they apply their sinking ceiling.
They intend to bring in the 90 day trial again, which will allow work "churn".
It will take certainty away, and people will not complain about bad practice allover again.
Banks and Real Estate Agents will be examining houses they can target to get offers over 2 million… rubbing their hands.
Asset prices will rise in anticipation of deals, and the spiral will begin again.
The drop in interest rates might not occur as usual in this situation, due to the USA playing with their rates. as our house prices soar away again rates may stay higher.
True values will be distorted once more in a very uncertain world, and builders will go back to building mansions for those who can pay, and all those new tradies won't get work, as National do their usual failure to build for public housing.
Meantime, as Ad has pointed out, we are falling into a depressed market place through trade with slowing demand from China, and with a bloody big Albatross sized Fonterra hanging on our necks, but nothing said about that problem.
Climate change will take a back seat as people struggle and compete for any jobs.imo. and small business, you will lose customers who will become unemployed and living on the breadline with no butter or spending money.
The wealthy will have a great garage sale.
Usual story … those who only read the headlines get fooled. The details require a little more sense, or just a desire to know them. Obviously some lack one or both of these.
Underneath the headlines, what do we find?
For example …
The National Party tax policy document, released this morning, incorrectly said the regional fuel tax was there to fund Auckland Light Rail. The funding has been allocated to a range of transport projects, from car parks to bus lanes – but not light rail.
Prompting this response from radical leftie (/sarc) Auckland deputy mayor Desley Simpson:
Simpson said National's tax plan would cause a major issue for Auckland Council, which has already gone through a significant cost cutting exercise. She said the council relied on the regional fuel tax.
“If it is removed without replacement that will leave a significant hole for us,” said Simpson.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300960309/election-2023-live-national-party-releases-full-146b-tax-plan
But never mind those awkward facts and big numbers, let's just parrot headlines like Fisiani, Mickey Boyle and anyone else who doesn't want to think.
Ah – the regional fuel tax is actually used for operational spending? They must have known that. So they're removing it to give Brownie an excuse for selling the remaining airport shares. That – along with lowering fuel prices because the public won't be transitioning to electric so fast without the clean car discount. And also because they like to "own the libs" by letting CO2 emissions remain high.
National's Plan. Love it, do not love it
Not
Not
Not
The most pertinent criticism is this
Work and Income
$10 to 30 a person per week tax cuts is not much when one notes the impact of the Fair Pay Agreement legislation on industry awards and migration levels on the employment market.
Rent
Rent is going up $50 a week pa atm.
$10 to $30 a week in tax cuts is not much help. Higher incomes is more important – that or a rent freeze.
Greens pose capping a rent increase at 3% pa max. Thus circa (average) $20 per week.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-nationals-tax-plan-act-calls-it-loose-change-while-greens-claim-cynical-ploy-against-low-earners/AVB7SYHYBNETDAQVMLTDTLKF4U/
Greens pose capping a rent increase at 3% pa max. Thus circa (average) $20 per week.
Yeah….nah.
Insurance, Council Rates and Mortgage % rates all uncontrolled but rent capped – can someone find the idiots who are intent on sabotaging Green electability and disemploy them?
Funny that you think a policy in support of those who rent makes Greens unpopular with those who own property. Why should they care that there is help to those who cannot afford to own?
It only negatively impacts on landlords.
Benefits don't get tax cuts as they are paid at net rates. Only NZS benefits from tax cuts – par of the reason the gap between benefits and NZS is now so large – the other being average wage vs CPI indexation.
More critical comment of National’s plans.
Robertson
Shaw
Babelbrox (two heads two mouths, only loves those with the ambition to be trillion)
Peters
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/30/robertson-slams-voodoo-costings-in-national-tax-plan/
Quite apart from their criticism by ACT that National have not planned to reduce our credit rating by adopting their own tax cut plan – David Seymour said that landlords should love ACT more than National.
Expected, with migration at these levels demand for housing will place upward pressure on rents.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-nationals-tax-plan-act-calls-it-loose-change-while-greens-claim-cynical-ploy-against-low-earners/AVB7SYHYBNETDAQVMLTDTLKF4U/
It's interesting how both National and ACT see rents as determined by the costs of the landlord, rather than supply and demand in the market – it's as if they see a non competitive monopoly scenario where the owners run a cost plus business model. A bit like Oz banks in New Zealand or the supermarkets.
Of course this maybe just what they say to justify landlord friendly policy “for the sake of tenants” – all while using rising (immigration) demand to keep rents high and wages low.
Grifters for a rentier class, little wonder they are so well funded by those they work for.
The 2 million dollar mansions are a diversion, this is about selling the high country and the coastline properties to absentee owners. 15% on 20 million is fuck all to those arseholes. If it really is a 14.7 billion windfall you're not going to get it from selling 1500 townhouses a year.
That will depend on whether National plans to open up sensitive land to foreign buyers or not.
https://www.linz.govt.nz/guidance/overseas-investment/ways-invest/investing-land-provide-benefit-new-zealand/identifying-sensitive-land
Gots yo get your bolt hole sorted don't ya know
All this "X gets Y dollars a week" is entirely missing the point (which is National's aim of course).
What matters is the underlying consequences, which will obviously be house price inflation, and then rising interest rates again.
The "squeezed middle" get $50 a week, while the home they wanted to buy goes up $1,000 a week (or much more). Of course it's their own fault, they should have been landlords.
Pity the "squeezed middle" who managed to buy their own house from November 2021 in Auckland, and who not only have to deal with increased mortgage and rates, have seen the home they now live in reduce by $1,000 a week or more.
https://www.opespartners.co.nz/property-markets/auckland
Are people still unware of the negative equity many property owners have on their homes, due to the market downturn? They will also very likely be paying a premium for home ownership in terms of mortgage, than a renter will be paying for the same standard of house.
Paying a higher amount in mortgage on buying property than for rent has been the norm for most of history. It has been rare for it to be otherwise (low interest rates because of low inflation because of global supply efficiencies and high rent because of a housing shortage).
Still the norm. Even in a declining market.
Along with all the other expenses of ownership.
Just addressing observer's outdated assumption:
"The "squeezed middle" get $50 a week, while the home they wanted to buy goes up $1,000 a week (or much more)."
It's not outdated. It's looking ahead to what would happen if National's policies are brought in (and made worse by ACT).
They will inflate property prices once again. Bringing back the unsustainable bubble is not the answer.
Well, it's not current.
It's either outdated or predicted.
I personally know a young family who purchased their first property just over a year ago in Auckland. They are paying increased mortgage and rates on negative equity of around $80k.
At least acknowledge there are some in this position.
You’ll change your tune once you get to play with National’s handy calculator to see how much you’ll receive in the hand
Those calculators are tools for fools
It says everything about the media's fixed perceptions that the Greens have had a tax calculator up for months, but their policies are rarely covered in the same way ("look how much cash you could win!").
Doubling the price of a service used mainly by young people and those on lower incomes to support tax cuts that mostly benefit people on higher incomes.
That's how these arseholes roll.
The National Party is proposing to cancel a Government public transport programme, which would effectively double fares for some people.
In National's newly announced tax plan, the party identified a number of programmes that it would end, allowing it to reprioritise the money spent on them to pay for the proposed tax relief.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-national-s-tax-plan-includes-cancelling-government-public-transport-discounts.html
The risk of doing poorly in an election following a highly successful one is the impact on the number of list seats for Labour post-election. Labour could retain up to 35 electorate seats where very large majorities were established, or high profile sitting Ministers hold the seat. Currently polling in the high 20's and, in my view, likely to slide further, there are some huge names for the party unlikely to be returned to Parliament.
A sub-30% on election day likely means goodbye to list candidates Grant Robertson, Ayesha Verrall, Willie Jackson, Adrian Rurawhe, Andrew Little, David Parker. Unlikely to re-win their electorates and possibly out of Parliament are Jan Tineti and Ginny Anderson.
It will be an evisceration of Labour's front line and their handful of best performers. Left behind will be a pool of B- and C-list potential future Ministers. And the party leader responsible for this mess.
That implies that a negative swing in party votes is generally more marked than a negative swing in electorate votes – in the same election. The opposite could also be theoretically true. Are there any examples of either?
Every NZ election this century the negative swing in party votes(whoever it is against) is more pronounced than in electorate votes. Of course I could cherry pick some anecdotal ones but that glares over the other variables such as name recognition, previous term performance, approach to electoral duties. And you could counter with other anecdotes.
I don't agree with the pessimistic forecast on the party vote, but even if we accept that premise, Labour would not have more than 25 electorates, max.
A top-up of only 10 from the party list (again, accepting your pessimistic premise) sees most of those you name being returned.
It would have to be a sub-20% party vote for your prediction to be borne out, and of course that would also mean fewer electorates held.
An electorate-only caucus is not remotely feasible.
Only 29 electorate seats with 37% of the vote in 2017, yet 27 seats with only 25% of the vote in 2014.
Ardern bumped up the vote, but little move in electorates till the National party vote collapsed in 2020.
The range of the party vote is 25-35%, electorate numbers will depend on how ACT/Green/NZF/TPM/TOP voters vote in general electorates.
Thanks – interesting to know. I will be keeping an eye out for it and whether the phenomenon is strong enough to have the effect you describe. (Observer 20.1.1.1 seems to think it won’t be)
Robertson is openly against some of chippies actions (rightly so imho) he'll be happy to go if labour in opposition.
David Parker also.
More disunity in the ranks than we have seen in some time.
Understandable though.
At around 30% vote – 36 MP's (plus 30% of the share of the reallocated – dispersal from parties which win no seats).
At 25% – 30 MP's (plus 25% of the reallocated … ).
PAST
Labour won 43 seats – 20 general electorates and 2 Maori electorates in 2008 with 34% of the party vote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_New_Zealand_general_election
34 seats – 19 general electorate and 3 Maori electorate with 24.5%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_Zealand_general_election
Labour won 32 – 27 electorate seats with 25% of the party vote
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_New_Zealand_general_election
Labour won 46 – 29 electorate seats with 37% of the party vote in 2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_New_Zealand_general_election
I see you're missing the key election though, 202p where Labour won an absolutely unprecedented 46 electorate seats. In order to return list MPs to Parliament, Labour will need to lose more than 10 electorates at 30% of the vote, and more than 16 electorates at 25% of the party vote. Just to return their finance minister. Some of those previously upheld seats were won by MPs who are now cabinet ministers and others by such a margin the electorate vote would need to swing disproportionately against Labour compared to the historical trend.
Obviously it's all speculation until the voters have their say, but the unprecedented results in 2020 may be followed by an unprecedented catastrophe for Labour list MPs this election.
There's a good chance the highly ranked Police and Education Ministers won't hold the electorates they took by small margins. In order to return, say, Cabinet list MP David Parker, Labour would need to lose an unlikely number of electorates. Andrew Little is also very precarious. And it's not unreasonable to foresee Robertson gone.
Labour went from 57/48% (1987) to 29 seats/35% (1990)
National went from 40/44% (1987) to 67 seats/48% (1990)
Peaks and troughs.
Seats will be lost.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_New_Zealand_general_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_New_Zealand_general_election
At 30%. 38 MP's. It's hard to see any more than 30 electorate MP's. That puts Little and Parker at the cusp (12/th/13th on the list).
And it could be as few as 25-27, thus down to around 19 Jo Luxton.
No, it is unreasonable. You're not making credible assumptions.
Let's test them. Let's say Labour only win 30 seats (again, I don't predict that at all, but your predictions are based on this worst case scenario – worse than National 2020, even, which is really stretching it).
What is the 30th ranked electorate that Labour would hold? Napier or East Coast with brand new candidates? Or what? (Incumbency gives an advantage, but a lot of Labour electorates are not being fought by incumbents).
If Labour are holding onto those kind of seats then the swing is bad, but not low 20s bad. So there will be list MPs elected.
Labour and National have never created an overhang, or come anywhere near it. That's pretty clear evidence.
That may be $6.50 per week each. And over time falling behind after change of linking to Cost of Living.
That would be working as intended then
Why are we holding the major election debates after early voting has started?
Come on now. That defies logic!
Because Egg Head, the company man, isn't ready yet.
This fabulous tax plan has massively resonated with middle New Zealand.
https://www.facebook.com/NicolaWillisMP/videos/1000493451284780
Next poll will probably show Labour support below 20%
If by this "fabulous" tax plan you mean "resembling or suggesting a fable : of an incredible, astonishing, or exaggerated nature", then I couldn't agree more.
Might depend on one’s point of view – you tend to get “a fabulous view from the summit.“
3:27 in….
Let them eat cake !….or icecream. Whatever….
Ol' Nic's kids gonna be gettin' real icecream !
I wouldn't call 437 likes on FB "massively resonated"