Open mike 30/08/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 30th, 2023 - 124 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

124 comments on “Open mike 30/08/2023 ”

  1. Tricledrown 1

    New name Aryans & CONSPIRACY

    Theorists .Seymour wants us to see less he is always first on the bandwagon to call for any govt MP's to resign.Come on Seymour set the example .

    • Tricledrown 1.1

      Luxon has thrown Seymour under the Bus by not giving Seymour a free lunch in Epsom sending a clear message to Seymour pull your head in.Or you won't be in Parliament.Given the Scandal's around ACT at the moment .ACT could be in serious trouble.Priceless the look on Seymours face when Media asking him awkward questions.Luxons favourite attack line a desperate coalition on the left when Luxon has Peters and Seymour .

  2. Ad 2

    A farmer wonders where the wool industry has gone.

    After multiple decades of resisting wool grower levies for innovation, zero resistance to scouring plants being sent offshore, the offshoring of nearly all wool clothing manufacuring, and nothing but farmer moaning, an entire region shifts from growing sheep to grapes.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/news/132833259/stuck-in-the-middle-with-ewes-sheep-farmer-baffled-by-wools-demise

    Not like he hasn't had time to shift to Merino where all the clothing brands of Glowing Sky, Macpac, Icebreaker, Swanndri etc have sourced their cloth needs since the 1980s.

    Oh no we're going to have to find more productive uses for land. What a quandary.

    • Shanreagh 2.1

      Ad, not all lowland sheep country is suitable for rasing merinos. Their feet are susceptible to foot rot and they therefore thrive on drier country. In NZ they do best on the dry high country of the South Island though there will be pockets of suitable country throughout the country.

      NZ has had a coarse wool industry second to none for carpets etc. Silly decisions by Govt to allow govt funded places such as schools to buy solution dyed nylon carpets will not be helping our coarse wool industry.

      Quite apart from being petroleum based (why would we be wanting this stuff in our homes & schools) nylon does not have much going for it. Old wool carpet can be recycled and fades away to nothing if used as a weed suppressant at the end of it life on your floor. .

      • Hunter Thompson II 2.1.1

        OK, that explains why no merino sheep farming is taking place in Waikato.

        But even if only coarse wool can be produced, I would like NZ farmers to succeed at that. Natural fibre beats synthetic any day for me. Hopefully international markets will come around.

        • Shanreagh 2.1.1.1

          I couldn't agree more HT11.

          NZ farmers have suffered also with the removal of tariffs, the nurturing of home manufacturing and allowing all sorts of synthetic fibres to come in to NZ.

          Synthetic fibres sit like stodge in our waste systems. We even export wool bales of the stuff to developing countries (why?).

          But don't start me on textile waste and the lack of use of natural/recycleable/degradeable fabrics….it is one of my hobby horses.

    • Tricledrown 2.2

      Ad farmers are short sighted I talked to many farmers around 2008/9 about the wool levy they were about to abolish.Not only did wool growers abolish the 15 cent a kilo wool levy for research and development of more value adding to wool.Farmers said they couldn't afford it and after only a few years no breakthroughs had been made which was totally untrue (farmer's just looking for the short term)The wool research institute had made several major breakthroughs on wool.How ever National made the decision to close the wool research institute being the pro farming party I knew this was the dumbest idea like really dumb.Natonal closed the wool research facility and 2 of the world's top wool researchers were made redundant. South Africa bought them and their research for next to nothing after $millions had been spent.What farmers failed to understand is that it takes 15 years of continuous research on average to make major break through.The wool research institute had made major break through after less than 10 yrs research making superior fireproofclothing ,machine washable wool and a process that cut out the need to weave or knit wool.The Nitwts at National and federated farmers had blunderedbadly and now it costs more to shear sheep than the fleece is worth.Ad Merino wool has to be micro fine to be of any value.So Ad growing Merino on lusher pastures means coarser wool.

      • Ad 2.2.1

        Good reminders there.

        The carpet thing almost needs a post by itself.

        • Shanreagh 2.2.1.1

          Good reminders there.

          The carpet thing almost needs a post by itself.

          Also the destruction of small NZ textile manufacturers who were working with wool etc. Very progressive, not, at the time to close them and allow a tsunami of synthetics made in factories where modern employment law and protections for workers was missing.

      • Coventrie 2.2.2

        Strong wool can also be used for felted weed cloth (prevents erosion, retains slopes, allows seed germination, 100% biodegradeable) and for sound control felt boards (use in schools, offices, large open areas) and could also be used to make insulating board for floors, walls and ceilings (like the old Pinex board) for homes which can't have other insulation installed.

        Wool is going to waste in NZ every day. It's terrible.

      • bwaghorn 2.2.3

        My recollection of when the voted to kill levies it was because the wool board or WHT ever they called them self them where just a bunch of do nothing tougher living on the farmers back, was only on the fringe of the farming industry then so this is pure anecdata

      • Mike the Lefty 2.2.4

        Also farmers have been led badly by the people who are supposed to advocate for them – Federated Farmers. FF has become little more than a rural National Party sub-committee content to chant out their mantra "National good, Labour bad" and dump on any farmer who dares to say otherwise.

        • Shanreagh 2.2.4.1

          Yes that is true Mike the Lefty. My Bro in law left the Feds years ago after being criticised for his fenced riparian plantings to protect his streams, which at the time were seen as akin to some form of bad thinking – perhaps socialism or even communism. (only slight exaggeration)

          While I suspect the links between FF & the Nats have always been a bit closer than between FF & the left it did not used to be so screechy and bad – remembering that Ruth Richardson was a Fed Farmers office holder before becoming an MP.

          We now have had the Feds, in my view, not clearly distinguishing themselves from the likes of the Howl of a Protest people (McKenzie and Paterson) which in large measure was an anti female, anti Jacinda Ardern being a female PM as well as everything else.

          Fed Farmers used to be most aware of the need to work with all types of Govt and therefore to more or less walk down the middle. This seems to have been lost of late in my view.

  3. Blazer 3

    An ACT member shared with me that they want to arm all police officers.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to allow the public to have access to firearms for…self-defence as well.

    Has Hipkins ruled out crACT as a coalition partner…yet?

  4. Anne 4

    Stuff is doing a rolling coverage of campaign events as they happen. The Nat's tax plans are due to be released at 10:30 this morning.

    This much has already been revealed if some of TS's wiz kids want to start on the numbers:

    The tax relief policy would come into effect from July next year

    • Average income household ($120k) with kids: $250 a fortnight, about $150 of this will be in childcare subsidies
    • Average income household with no children: $100 a fortnight
    • Supperannuant couples: $26 a fortnight
    • Median income full time worker ($60k): $50 a fortnight
    • Full-time minimum wage worker: $20 a fortnight

    The policy is capped at $78,100, meaning someone earning slightly above this would get the same per fortnight as a millionaire.

    As a supperannuant living alone do I get nothing. That would be right. Such individuals are no doubt at the bottom of NAct's barrel.

    Edit: after all the whinging and moaning about Labour’s package not starting until next year, I note there’s will not come into effect until July of next year.

    • Incognito 4.1

      Link please.

        • Barfly 4.1.1.1

          Haha oh lordie it seems that the National Party is really keen to popularise "fortnight, fortnight, fortnight" – Could it be the per week amount sounds like shit?

          "Minimum wage workers offered a part of a block of cheese taxcut"

          that should be the MSM headline

          Ten dollars a week doesn't buy much cheese does it?

          • bwaghorn 4.1.1.1.1

            Wonder how much loxon and willis will get from the tax cut

            • Westykev 4.1.1.1.1.1

              Just did the calculations, anyone earning over $60k pa (with no children) get $60 extra a fortnight.

              • Barfly

                Did you say $30.00 a week?

                • Westykev

                  I get paid fortnightly so budget accordingly.

                  • Shanreagh

                    I think the reason that the payments are expressed fortnightly is that where benefits and super is concerned these are paid fortnightly. Public sector salaried people are paid fortnightly.

                    I budget fortnightly. Others paid weekly would budget weekly. No skin off anyone's nose how it is expressed, surely.

              • observer

                Meaningless. In fact, Luxon will get many thousands of dollars extra from his 7 properties.

                I don't actually believe he proposes these policies only to enrich himself, because he's already very wealthy. But it is certainly to enrich donors to the National Party. The "quid pro quo" is obvious, hence the flood of money into party coffers now.

                • Anne

                  Which leads one to wonder… how many donors to the National Party were wittingly made aware of what they were planning in order to increase their coffers tenfold.

                  What a bunch of miserable, greedy rogues who have no care for anyone other than themselves.

            • James Simpson 4.1.1.1.1.2

              The same as a family on 120k. The top rate isn't changing

            • Incognito 4.1.1.1.1.3

              That’ll depend on their salaries after 14 Oct.

          • Mike the Lefty 4.1.1.1.2

            There was a very similar headline in 2008 under the Clark government.

            http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/454946/The-block-of-cheese-Budget-2008.

            If its National's idea I suppose it is OK, according to National think-tanks like the ODT and the Granny Herald.

          • alwyn 4.1.1.1.3

            I think I would rather hear amounts being expressed as so much/fortnight then the way Robertson does it.

            When he talks about savings we find that he talks about X dollars per four years!

            I thought that the only people who used units like that as a time period were the IOC.

    • SPC 4.2
      • Average income household ($120k) with kids: $100 a fortnight, + $25 per child tax credit and up to $80 a week child care tax rebate (where such under 5's cost)
      • Average (couple) household with no children: $50 a week
      • Superannuant couples: $13 a week
      • Superannuant single: $8 a week
      • Median income full time worker ($60k): $25 a week
      • Full-time minimum wage worker: $10 a week
      • Anne 4.2.1

        So, households on the average income will get $50 per week. Not exactly mind-blowing given the cost of living expenses but some help.

        So those whose income is below average range from $25 a week to $8 a week depending on circumstances. Oh boy, that's going to help pay for the ever increasing rates and insurances plus petrol etc. many of us still have to find out of our meagre incomes.

        And what about those in the upper income bracket? Have they been inadvertently left off the list? (sarc)

        • SPC 4.2.1.1

          The tax cuts end at $78,000. Peak at around $30 a person and $60 for a couple with no children.

          National – average family – the $50 a week tax cuts plus $25 tax credit and maybe some childcare rebate up to $80 a week (if children under 5).

          Labour – average family – $25 tax credit, cheaper food ($5), those under 24 half fare, under 12 free PT.

          The wealthy get foreign buyer interest in higher value property (pushing up the value of their home).

          • Descendant Of Smith 4.2.1.1.1

            $60 for a couple with no children.

            Shouldn't that say "$60 for a couple with no children and two incomes".

            I see nothing there that says unwell and disabled partners not working will get $30-00 per week..

  5. Patricia Bremner 5

    Anyone with a chronic illness will need that much to cover Dr and reinstated Chemist.

    Experience says you go back to user pays, 90 day trials, poor contracts, with lack of protections and no certainty, and this will not really be a benefit except on paper and work best for the already well off.
    Let us see where the four revenue streams are squeezed from.

    • Herodotus 5.1

      We already have this – 1 member of the family had their cancer return – had to go private for all steps $50k later and we are all on the road to recovery AGAIN. So where is the public health system ?? Labour and their management of this country is causing more and more families to become working poor. And not forget lack of wage increases for many and meteoric mortgage increases. About time people in govt and supporting them get some real life experiences to perhaps appreciate how tough it has been for many over the last 3 years. So I question your comment, many already are covering such costs and much more . Screw the working man’s political party because they have already screwed us🤯🤬

      • SPC 5.1.1

        What of that would be different under National policy – apart from the end of Fair Pay Agreements?

        • bwaghorn 5.1.1.1

          There would have been lots less old and unwell people to support because covid would have killed them under nact

        • Herodotus 5.1.1.2

          What HAS happened under labour and how its results are what we have experienced. Real life cases none of this hypothetical crap that we hear from ministers and PMs …experienced. From previous experiences with the same cancer life was easier both under Clark and Key. And bwaghorn if it wasn’t for our ability to pay Labour govt would have another death so you can f?()$ off with your crap comment.

          • Descendant Of Smith 5.1.1.2.1

            My wife's sister has had cancer four times in the last forty years and all helped and supported and recovered through the public health system. Not a cent spent privately. Other family members with cancer have had no trouble getting treatment.

            What is noticeable is demand is higher as population ages but I don't blame current government for that – previous ones should have been investing and training for this time which was entirely predictable.

            Those earlier governments fucked this up – including as a result of a stupid DHB structure that encouraged waiting lists to get funding and non-co-operation across NZ.

            You're trying to blame today for the malaise of the past.

            • Patricia Bremner 5.1.1.2.1.1

              yes 100% DoS.

            • mary_a 5.1.1.2.1.2

              @ Descendant of Smith (5.1.1.2.1) … Absolutely spot on. Well said.

              I've been saying for years, previous governments knew there would be an aging Kiwi population (post WWII), likely requiring more health, housing, social and other government services further down the track, from the 2000s onward. So there has been plenty of time for past administrations to prepare for this eventuality. After all, we boomers haven't just popped up in the last shower of rain have we? We've been on the radar since the 1940s!

          • bwaghorn 5.1.1.2.2

            I'm sorry for your situation,

            Bit go look at the death tolls of any country run by right wing governments due to covid,

  6. SPC 6

    ACT is proposing to end the link between super payment levels and the net average wage and limit any increase to the CPI.

    “Switching to CPI indexation will also ensure that the cost of the pension does not continue to grow inexorably as the economy grows.”
    “We’ve actually future-proofed our pension by linking it to inflation,” Seymour said.
    However, Seymour did accept if pensioners did become worse off following his policy being adopted, it would be reversed and Super would be linked back to wages.
    Act’s budget said the switch would save $1.13 billion across the period to 2026/27.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/winston-peters-sounds-alarm-on-acts-proposed-changes-to-superannuation/IDBTQYV32RHXDL4ABVBCGIQVMY/

    The quotes above indicate Seymour is either confused and out of his depth or lying – how can they budget for a reduced cost of super and also say if the change disadvantaged anyone they would reverse it?

    How does it become more affordable to government with the change and those on super not be worse off?

    • Kay 6.1

      Don't get old, and definitely don't even think about getting sick in NZ. And if you're considering a vote for ACT (and by extension, National), make sure you have insurance for absolutely everything- redundancy, unemployment, trauma, comprehensive health, your savings, absolutely every eventuality. Because the ultimate aim of their exercise is survival of the fittest- sorry, richest.

    • alwyn 6.2

      New Zealand Superannuation rates are currently linked to the CPI rate. The change from average wage indexation took effect from from 1 April 2023.

      Chippie and Grant were very proud of the change.

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-superannuation-rates-2023-how-much-more-will-you-get/HJEDMK3C4VHVPHLSRYOHZ6FQ2Q/

      • SPC 6.2.1

        To post that, without noting that the change is a temporary one – only made because of the current high levels of inflation, is entering the Seymour stratosphere for misrepresentation.

      • Kay 6.2.2

        Due to the even great inequity triggered by the sudden inflation spike. This needs to become a permanent feature, agreed to by governments of all stripes. Yeah, right.

        https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/govt-explores-raising-annual-benefit-increases-by-indexing-to-higher-of-average-wage-or-inflation/SP7FSYYSYZHMVJOGZ3INGJ6NXQ/

      • Barfly 6.2.3

        Are you trying to say that the change to CPI linkage when made in a period of higher inflation harms superannuatants?

        You are smart enough to know a Labour Government will move between a CPI and Wage linkage to use whichever benefits superannuatants the most.

        The ACT statement is that they will increase hardship to superannuatants.

        Please try to stop being a disingenuous arsehole.

        • alwyn 6.2.3.1

          I am not saying anything like that.

          And I certainly don't know, or believe, "a Labour Government will move between a CPI and Wage linkage to use whichever benefits superannuitants the most.".

          A Labour Government will do whatever benefits that Government. The benefit to any other group is of very little interest to them compared to their own interests. All Governments tend to lean that way.

          I would greatly prefer that there be very carefully thought through, and agreed, rules for setting such things as benefit levels rather than politicians setting such levels based on how they feel that morning or who last spoke to them, or what their polling company tells them may help their popularity levels.

          • Barfly 6.2.3.1.1

            The Labour Government has already changed linkages between payments and CPI / Wages – these changes were made to and have benefitted the recipients

            The ACT Party proposes changes in CPI to harm the recipients

            You state a desire for rules for setting such things as benefit levels. I doubt you want to improve the life of the recipients

        • Brigitte 6.2.3.2

          Actually NZ Super is adjusted by CPI and the current Government did nothing to change the rules (they are an Act of parliament). There is a minimum (and maximum) level versus NAW which is what was triggered this year.

          The Act is here: https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2001/0084/latest/whole.html

          See s15 for CPI increase and s16 for the minimum.

          What Act are proposing is to remove the requirements of s16. I believe this was the case quite some time ago and Govts made ad-hoc increases until the corridor was enacted (and that has also been changed subsequently to the current levels).

  7. MickeyBoyle 7

    Credit where credit is due, that's a good tax policy by National.

    I hope it gives Hipkins and Labour the impetus to realize his captains call on wealth taxes etc, was wrong.

    National have laid down the gauntlet, come on Labour $4 off your grocery shop isn't going to cut it. Time to step up!

    • Barfly 7.1

      Read it again and translate all the $$$ per fortnight to per week. (meh)

      Then wonder what they will cut to pay for it?

      Or will it again be a case of "National's magical efficency tree" which can support any unfunded Election promise?

      • AB 7.1.1

        They reckon they can pay for it in two ways:

        • cutting government spending (so-called back office functions and consultants). This means long-term decline in service quality and a disguised form of austerity given rapid population growth through the sky-high immigration that will become permanent under National. Think you might get health insurance because the public system is in decline? Sorry, your paltry tax cuts won't remotely cover the premiums. Ditto private schools.
        • by re-inflating house prices through making landlordism more attractive and inviting foreign buyers back. Then taxing those foreign buyers who decide to join in the speculative spree. Expect the many, many houses in Auckland with a current valuation of $1.5 to 1.8M to mysteriously* end up in the foreign-buyer-eligible $2M+ bracket and then everything else coat-tailing higher in response. If you don't already own a house, sorry, your paltry tax cut won't even touch the sides of the extra cost of buying one. And your wages will decline (in real terms) as you compete with immigrants and a growing group of unemployed. But be happy, your saint-like landlord will cut your rent because their costs are lower, rather than just pocket the difference (wtf)

        Juicing the economy with high immigration and rising house prices – the Key playbook.

        *mysteriously: An important point here is whether the $2M requires an official valuation or is just what someone is prepared to pay for it.

        • Visubversa 7.1.1.1

          There will be a valuation for Rates purposes. And 2M+ won't buy you much in my street. The land value alone for a 340m2 site is $1.75 million. City fringe and fortunately heritage overlaid, so not a target for developers.

  8. Binders full of Women 8

    Re Nats Tax Policy— at what age do children stop being children? Asking for a squeezed-middle friend…..

    • SPC 8.1

      The package as related to children.

      National has the same increase in WFF tax credit as Labour – $25 a week (under 18)

      It also has its Child Care Rebate up to $80 a week for those with such under 5 costs – whereas Labour directly subsidises 20 hours care for those 2 to age 3.

    • SPC 8.2

      Oh and the loss of half price PT fares for those age 12 to 24 and free PT for children under 12.

  9. SPC 9

    DETAIL

    National is proposing the same change On Working for Families – $25 per week from April 1, 2024. It would also increase the abatement threshold to $50,000 from April 1, 2026.

    National has joined Labour in ending depreciation for commerical buildings.

    National would keep GST on all food.

    National would have full transport fares for CSC holders and young people.

    National will allow foreigners to buy homes worth over $2m and charge them 15% tax – and expects around 1500 to do this each year (c$750M of tax revenue) and pass the money onto New Zealanders – adjust the tax thresholds.

    (one wonders when the move to selling residency and passing the money via tax cuts will occur)

    National is charging the full cost of immigration visa applications, and using this to fund the tax package

    (its a start)

    There’s also a tax on on-line gambling services to Kiwis (geo-blocking those who do not comply)

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-national-s-14-6-billion-tax-relief-plan-to-be-funded-by-new-tax-other-changes.html

  10. SPC 10

    Other

    National already announced the FamilyBoost childcare tax rebate earlier this year, promising families earning up to $180,000 a 25 percent rebate on early childhood education expenses up to $3900 per year depending on income. That would be $75 per week.

    This helps families meet the costs charged by providers (such as the Wright Family)

    The policy document released on Wednesday says National "will end Labour’s extension of 20 Hours ECE to two-year-olds" as their FamilyBoost rebate will replace this.

    This (like GST off fruit an vegetables and half fares for for CSC holders and young people under 24) reduces cost to families.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-national-s-14-6-billion-tax-relief-plan-to-be-funded-by-new-tax-other-changes.html

    • bwaghorn 10.1

      Partially funded by selling nz houses to rich foreign investors, to harvest capital gains from , fuck muppets

      • SPC 10.1.1

        Yes, those New Zealanders with higher value properties for sale to foreigners would have more buyers at the auctions.

        Foreigners would be interested in buying here because there is no CGT on our property, apart from the bright-line test National is reducing down to 2 years.

      • Blazer 10.1.2

        Natz have always maintained foreign buyers were an insignificant % of house buyers!

        So won't raise much at all…then.

        • SPC 10.1.2.1

          Apparently there were about 3000 houses worth over $2m sold pa.

          Either foreigners buy up half of those homes in future – or the expectation is they will be buy up say only 1000 and the rest of the money comes from sales of others not on the market (unless values rise, because of foreign buy in) or National loosens the rules on sensitive land sales.

  11. Fisiani 11

    The fabulous tax relief package displayed today was the moment that the election result was secured. It’s embarrassing to admit that you will still vote Labour

    • SPC 11.1

      ACT calls it risible and no real change from Labour.

      Most New Zealanders are better off under Green or TPM or TOP alternatives.

      GR and DP wealth tax plans, if adopted by Labour, would have done the same.

    • Incognito 11.2

      You’ll get over your embarrassment. Stop talking to yourself and looking at yourself in the mirror, as you sound like a puber on steroids.

    • Corey 11.3

      National probably will win the election but they'll be out in three years because this election is a poison chalice. Why would anyone want to win it?!

      The economy is screwed, china's slow down will ruin us and tinkering with the tax system won't stop us from being obliterated financially, the war isn't ending anytime soon and neither is inflation and the geopolitics of the pacific region are going to be a nightmare for National to navigate.

      This isn't John keys centrist national, the last time a govt tried out the economic policies of act, was national in 1990-1993 and they nearly lost and would have under mmp.

      National/acts entire economic philosophy is hyper immigration, a lot of of nat/act voters are anti immigration, housing is bad enough already, wait till you see how rage when nationals letting 200-300 k immigrants a year, and when health budgets are slashed and when austerity sends half out nurses overs or govt stops making contributions to their kiwi savers and due to increased poverty the crime rate soars. All while dairy prices collapse. Haha.

      National and act have made enemies of iwi and the new radical Maori renosance isn't going away anytime soon and these voters are going to around for a very very long time. Enjoy that it's gonna be fun for you.

      And the biggest problem facing national? Their aging voter base. More and more Boomers are dying every and more and Gen z come of voting age, every day, by not appealing to us and by locking out Gen y and Gen z from home ownership all kiwi politicians are doing is ensuring that us younger voters get more radical as we grow older, you only get more conservative if you own a home..

      Young voters don't watch local TV or media or listen to radio so domestic right wing propaganda isn't going to reach them.

      Also bless the hearts of those who are scared of a cgt or a wealth tax, if you only knew what Gen y and Gen z were vining.

      Finally, Gen y and Gen z truly hate the cradle to the grave generation and we will be the generation that abolishes the pension. Not means tests, we will gleeful abolish it and we will say to the remaining oldies moaning "money doesn't grow on trees and you should have thought about that before you decided to grow old" it'll be stupid and short sighted but it'll feel damn good and it'll save us gargantuan amounts of money.

  12. Ad 12

    "$590 million on average per year Climate Dividend, returning taxes raised on climate polluters to Kiwi families rather than giving subsidies to large corporates"

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/30/nationals-tax-plan-and-how-it-will-be-funded-revealed/

    Liked this point from National.

    • bwaghorn 12.1

      Isn't the point of a carbon tax to reduce carbon !

      How will giving that money to families combat climate change, ?

      He'll my 50 a fortnight might go into the holiday kitty for a flight to oz!!

    • Bella blow 12.2

      We could have so much more than that if we included agriculture in the ETS – they are our largest climate polluters responsible for nearly half of all emissions

  13. Patricia Bremner 13

    So all up…. two things emerge, this replaces Labour's GST and reduced fares up to 24 (students)/free fares for children up to 13? But gives more to young families ..on paper.? The rest matches Labour promises except for tax brackets.

    It will be fine for a few, but the "backroom" public service be afraid, be very afraid. You are in for rounds of restructuring and applying for your job over and over again as they apply their sinking ceiling.

    They intend to bring in the 90 day trial again, which will allow work "churn".

    It will take certainty away, and people will not complain about bad practice allover again.

    Banks and Real Estate Agents will be examining houses they can target to get offers over 2 million… rubbing their hands.

    Asset prices will rise in anticipation of deals, and the spiral will begin again.

    The drop in interest rates might not occur as usual in this situation, due to the USA playing with their rates. as our house prices soar away again rates may stay higher.

    True values will be distorted once more in a very uncertain world, and builders will go back to building mansions for those who can pay, and all those new tradies won't get work, as National do their usual failure to build for public housing.

    Meantime, as Ad has pointed out, we are falling into a depressed market place through trade with slowing demand from China, and with a bloody big Albatross sized Fonterra hanging on our necks, but nothing said about that problem.

    Climate change will take a back seat as people struggle and compete for any jobs.imo. and small business, you will lose customers who will become unemployed and living on the breadline with no butter or spending money.

    The wealthy will have a great garage sale.

  14. observer 14

    Usual story … those who only read the headlines get fooled. The details require a little more sense, or just a desire to know them. Obviously some lack one or both of these.

    Underneath the headlines, what do we find?

    For example …

    The National Party tax policy document, released this morning, incorrectly said the regional fuel tax was there to fund Auckland Light Rail. The funding has been allocated to a range of transport projects, from car parks to bus lanes – but not light rail.

    Prompting this response from radical leftie (/sarc) Auckland deputy mayor Desley Simpson:

    Simpson said National's tax plan would cause a major issue for Auckland Council, which has already gone through a significant cost cutting exercise. She said the council relied on the regional fuel tax.

    “If it is removed without replacement that will leave a significant hole for us,” said Simpson.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300960309/election-2023-live-national-party-releases-full-146b-tax-plan

    But never mind those awkward facts and big numbers, let's just parrot headlines like Fisiani, Mickey Boyle and anyone else who doesn't want to think.

    • AB 14.1

      Ah – the regional fuel tax is actually used for operational spending? They must have known that. So they're removing it to give Brownie an excuse for selling the remaining airport shares. That – along with lowering fuel prices because the public won't be transitioning to electric so fast without the clean car discount. And also because they like to "own the libs" by letting CO2 emissions remain high.

  15. SPC 15

    National's Plan. Love it, do not love it

    Not

    Act leader David Seymour was quick to criticise the package as “loose change” and too similar to Labour’s plan.

    “Tax bracket indexation is exactly what it sounds like: Labour’s tax policy adjusted for inflation.

    “It’s not a tax cut, it’s tinkering that freezes the unfairness of Labour’s tax policy in time. That’s just not good enough for New Zealand, we don’t need to trim the sails, we need a turn-around job.”

    Not

    Green Party co-leader James Shaw was adamant National’s plan would benefit landlords and property investors over students and people on benefits.

    “National’s plan is a cynical ploy to do the absolute least for middle-income earners in order to get away with tax cuts for the wealthiest few,” he said.

    “Under National’s plan, people on the lowest incomes would miss out while high-income property speculators can continue to line their pockets.”

    Not

    NZ First leader Winston Peters believed basing an economic plan on immigration and house prices was not prudent.

    “They are clearly relying on mass immigration and a mass foreign buy-up of Kiwi homes to fund its tax cuts and their ‘squeezed middle’ will be squeezed further

    The most pertinent criticism is this

    Work and Income

    $10 to 30 a person per week tax cuts is not much when one notes the impact of the Fair Pay Agreement legislation on industry awards and migration levels on the employment market.

    Rent

    Rent is going up $50 a week pa atm.

    $10 to $30 a week in tax cuts is not much help. Higher incomes is more important – that or a rent freeze.

    Greens pose capping a rent increase at 3% pa max. Thus circa (average) $20 per week.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-nationals-tax-plan-act-calls-it-loose-change-while-greens-claim-cynical-ploy-against-low-earners/AVB7SYHYBNETDAQVMLTDTLKF4U/

    • Barfly 15.1

      Greens pose capping a rent increase at 3% pa max. Thus circa (average) $20 per week.

      Yeah….nah.

      Insurance, Council Rates and Mortgage % rates all uncontrolled but rent capped – can someone find the idiots who are intent on sabotaging Green electability and disemploy them?

      • SPC 15.1.1

        Funny that you think a policy in support of those who rent makes Greens unpopular with those who own property. Why should they care that there is help to those who cannot afford to own?

        It only negatively impacts on landlords.

    • Descendant Of Smith 15.2

      Benefits don't get tax cuts as they are paid at net rates. Only NZS benefits from tax cuts – par of the reason the gap between benefits and NZS is now so large – the other being average wage vs CPI indexation.

    • SPC 15.3

      More critical comment of National’s plans.

      Robertson

      The policy hasn’t gone down so well with New Zealand’s other major parties, who have all expressed their disappointment with what's on offer.

      Finance Minister Grant Robertson called the policy "dodgy," saying cuts to public service "will make families worse off".

      "Their tax and burn plan will also pour petrol on the housing market that Labour has worked hard to rein in,” he said.

      Despite what they say, the fine print of their document says health and education will be cut to find savings."

      "The plan relies on more and more foreign buyers coming into the New Zealand market every year, despite putting a tax on them. It also beggars belief that there are that number of homes available every year to be bought up by foreigners to fund National’s tax cuts.”

      Shaw

      “National’s plan includes enormous tax cuts for people who play the property market, which we know drives house prices higher and squeezes first home buyers.

      They also blasted National’s plan to roll black National’s plan to toll back the bright line test from 10 years to two years, calling it a “handout for property speculators”.

      “It is ripping money away from everyone else in order to support the wealthiest few, and will be the worst possible news for first home buyers who want to be able to buy a place to put down roots.”

      He said the greens policy of implementing a wealth tax was a “costed solution”.

      Babelbrox (two heads two mouths, only loves those with the ambition to be trillion)

      “National’s tax policy confirms there won't be any real change without ACT. Their tax cuts promise about half as much as Labour’s Michael Cullen promised 15 years ago, this policy could easily have been announced by Labour,” he said.

      “National criticises Labour for spending an extra billion dollars a week, but they are promising to spend an extra $980 million a week.”

      He wants to see reductions in government spending. ACT also wants to change to a two-rate tax system where the top tax rates for companies, trusts and individuals are at 28%.

      Peters

      He said bringing down the brightline test will mean “the housing market will spiral out of control – with empty properties being flipped for massive profits.
      Peters also believes the country’s infrastructure, housing, living costs and wages won’t be able to handle National’s immigration plans.

      “Low wages and high costs means we will see a flight of mainly young Kiwis out of our country.”

      “This is circa 2014 all over again – a speculative consumptive economy, not a sound wealth-based, export-growth, added value way forward.”

      https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/30/robertson-slams-voodoo-costings-in-national-tax-plan/

  16. SPC 16

    Quite apart from their criticism by ACT that National have not planned to reduce our credit rating by adopting their own tax cut plan – David Seymour said that landlords should love ACT more than National.

    National also proposed to restore interest deductibility for landlords with an expectation it would decrease rent prices. It wouldn’t be reinstated immediately upon National entering government, it would be phased in over three years.

    Expected, with migration at these levels demand for housing will place upward pressure on rents.

    Seymour said National should adopt Act’s plan to bring it in straight away.

    “Landlords have been hit with a double whammy of rising mortgage interest rates and increasing interest deductibility limitations during a cost-of-living crisis.

    “The pressure on landlords and tenants is severe and they need relief now, not in the future.”

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-nationals-tax-plan-act-calls-it-loose-change-while-greens-claim-cynical-ploy-against-low-earners/AVB7SYHYBNETDAQVMLTDTLKF4U/

    It's interesting how both National and ACT see rents as determined by the costs of the landlord, rather than supply and demand in the market – it's as if they see a non competitive monopoly scenario where the owners run a cost plus business model. A bit like Oz banks in New Zealand or the supermarkets.

    Of course this maybe just what they say to justify landlord friendly policy “for the sake of tenants” – all while using rising (immigration) demand to keep rents high and wages low.

    Grifters for a rentier class, little wonder they are so well funded by those they work for.

  17. Adrian 17

    The 2 million dollar mansions are a diversion, this is about selling the high country and the coastline properties to absentee owners. 15% on 20 million is fuck all to those arseholes. If it really is a 14.7 billion windfall you're not going to get it from selling 1500 townhouses a year.

  18. observer 18

    All this "X gets Y dollars a week" is entirely missing the point (which is National's aim of course).

    What matters is the underlying consequences, which will obviously be house price inflation, and then rising interest rates again.

    The "squeezed middle" get $50 a week, while the home they wanted to buy goes up $1,000 a week (or much more). Of course it's their own fault, they should have been landlords.

    • Molly 18.1

      Pity the "squeezed middle" who managed to buy their own house from November 2021 in Auckland, and who not only have to deal with increased mortgage and rates, have seen the home they now live in reduce by $1,000 a week or more.

      https://www.opespartners.co.nz/property-markets/auckland

      Are people still unware of the negative equity many property owners have on their homes, due to the market downturn? They will also very likely be paying a premium for home ownership in terms of mortgage, than a renter will be paying for the same standard of house.

      • SPC 18.1.1

        Paying a higher amount in mortgage on buying property than for rent has been the norm for most of history. It has been rare for it to be otherwise (low interest rates because of low inflation because of global supply efficiencies and high rent because of a housing shortage).

        • Molly 18.1.1.1

          Still the norm. Even in a declining market.

          Along with all the other expenses of ownership.

          Just addressing observer's outdated assumption:

          "The "squeezed middle" get $50 a week, while the home they wanted to buy goes up $1,000 a week (or much more)."

          • observer 18.1.1.1.1

            It's not outdated. It's looking ahead to what would happen if National's policies are brought in (and made worse by ACT).

            They will inflate property prices once again. Bringing back the unsustainable bubble is not the answer.

            • Molly 18.1.1.1.1.1

              Well, it's not current.

              It's either outdated or predicted.

              I personally know a young family who purchased their first property just over a year ago in Auckland. They are paying increased mortgage and rates on negative equity of around $80k.

              At least acknowledge there are some in this position.

    • Incognito 18.2

      You’ll change your tune once you get to play with National’s handy calculator to see how much you’ll receive in the hand cheeky

      Those calculators are tools for fools wink

      • observer 18.2.1

        It says everything about the media's fixed perceptions that the Greens have had a tax calculator up for months, but their policies are rarely covered in the same way ("look how much cash you could win!").

  19. joe90 19

    Doubling the price of a service used mainly by young people and those on lower incomes to support tax cuts that mostly benefit people on higher incomes.

    That's how these arseholes roll.

    The National Party is proposing to cancel a Government public transport programme, which would effectively double fares for some people.

    In National's newly announced tax plan, the party identified a number of programmes that it would end, allowing it to reprioritise the money spent on them to pay for the proposed tax relief.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-national-s-tax-plan-includes-cancelling-government-public-transport-discounts.html

  20. Michael Nolan 20

    The risk of doing poorly in an election following a highly successful one is the impact on the number of list seats for Labour post-election. Labour could retain up to 35 electorate seats where very large majorities were established, or high profile sitting Ministers hold the seat. Currently polling in the high 20's and, in my view, likely to slide further, there are some huge names for the party unlikely to be returned to Parliament.

    A sub-30% on election day likely means goodbye to list candidates Grant Robertson, Ayesha Verrall, Willie Jackson, Adrian Rurawhe, Andrew Little, David Parker. Unlikely to re-win their electorates and possibly out of Parliament are Jan Tineti and Ginny Anderson.

    It will be an evisceration of Labour's front line and their handful of best performers. Left behind will be a pool of B- and C-list potential future Ministers. And the party leader responsible for this mess.

    • AB 20.1

      That implies that a negative swing in party votes is generally more marked than a negative swing in electorate votes – in the same election. The opposite could also be theoretically true. Are there any examples of either?

      • Michael Nolan 20.1.1

        Every NZ election this century the negative swing in party votes(whoever it is against) is more pronounced than in electorate votes. Of course I could cherry pick some anecdotal ones but that glares over the other variables such as name recognition, previous term performance, approach to electoral duties. And you could counter with other anecdotes.

        • observer 20.1.1.1

          I don't agree with the pessimistic forecast on the party vote, but even if we accept that premise, Labour would not have more than 25 electorates, max.

          A top-up of only 10 from the party list (again, accepting your pessimistic premise) sees most of those you name being returned.

          It would have to be a sub-20% party vote for your prediction to be borne out, and of course that would also mean fewer electorates held.

          An electorate-only caucus is not remotely feasible.

          • SPC 20.1.1.1.1

            I don't agree with the pessimistic forecast on the party vote, but even if we accept that premise, Labour would not have more than 25 electorates, max.

            Only 29 electorate seats with 37% of the vote in 2017, yet 27 seats with only 25% of the vote in 2014.

            Ardern bumped up the vote, but little move in electorates till the National party vote collapsed in 2020.

            The range of the party vote is 25-35%, electorate numbers will depend on how ACT/Green/NZF/TPM/TOP voters vote in general electorates.

        • AB 20.1.1.2

          Thanks – interesting to know. I will be keeping an eye out for it and whether the phenomenon is strong enough to have the effect you describe. (Observer 20.1.1.1 seems to think it won’t be)

    • bwaghorn 20.2

      Robertson is openly against some of chippies actions (rightly so imho) he'll be happy to go if labour in opposition.

      • MickeyBoyle 20.2.1

        David Parker also.

        More disunity in the ranks than we have seen in some time.

        Understandable though.

    • SPC 20.3

      At around 30% vote – 36 MP's (plus 30% of the share of the reallocated – dispersal from parties which win no seats).

      At 25% – 30 MP's (plus 25% of the reallocated … ).

      PAST

      Labour won 43 seats – 20 general electorates and 2 Maori electorates in 2008 with 34% of the party vote.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_New_Zealand_general_election

      34 seats – 19 general electorate and 3 Maori electorate with 24.5%

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_Zealand_general_election

      Labour won 32 – 27 electorate seats with 25% of the party vote

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_New_Zealand_general_election

      Labour won 46 – 29 electorate seats with 37% of the party vote in 2017

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_New_Zealand_general_election

      • Michael Nolan 20.3.1

        I see you're missing the key election though, 202p where Labour won an absolutely unprecedented 46 electorate seats. In order to return list MPs to Parliament, Labour will need to lose more than 10 electorates at 30% of the vote, and more than 16 electorates at 25% of the party vote. Just to return their finance minister. Some of those previously upheld seats were won by MPs who are now cabinet ministers and others by such a margin the electorate vote would need to swing disproportionately against Labour compared to the historical trend.

        Obviously it's all speculation until the voters have their say, but the unprecedented results in 2020 may be followed by an unprecedented catastrophe for Labour list MPs this election.

        There's a good chance the highly ranked Police and Education Ministers won't hold the electorates they took by small margins. In order to return, say, Cabinet list MP David Parker, Labour would need to lose an unlikely number of electorates. Andrew Little is also very precarious. And it's not unreasonable to foresee Robertson gone.

        • SPC 20.3.1.1

          Labour went from 57/48% (1987) to 29 seats/35% (1990)

          National went from 40/44% (1987) to 67 seats/48% (1990)

          Peaks and troughs.

          Seats will be lost.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_New_Zealand_general_election

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_New_Zealand_general_election

        • SPC 20.3.1.2

          At 30%. 38 MP's. It's hard to see any more than 30 electorate MP's. That puts Little and Parker at the cusp (12/th/13th on the list).

          And it could be as few as 25-27, thus down to around 19 Jo Luxton.

        • observer 20.3.1.3

          No, it is unreasonable. You're not making credible assumptions.

          Let's test them. Let's say Labour only win 30 seats (again, I don't predict that at all, but your predictions are based on this worst case scenario – worse than National 2020, even, which is really stretching it).

          What is the 30th ranked electorate that Labour would hold? Napier or East Coast with brand new candidates? Or what? (Incumbency gives an advantage, but a lot of Labour electorates are not being fought by incumbents).

          If Labour are holding onto those kind of seats then the swing is bad, but not low 20s bad. So there will be list MPs elected.

          Labour and National have never created an overhang, or come anywhere near it. That's pretty clear evidence.

  21. ianmac 21

    "A superannuitant couple would get $26 a fortnight."

    That may be $6.50 per week each. And over time falling behind after change of linking to Cost of Living.

  22. MickeyBoyle 22

    Why are we holding the major election debates after early voting has started?

    Come on now. That defies logic!

  23. fisiani 23

    This fabulous tax plan has massively resonated with middle New Zealand.

    https://www.facebook.com/NicolaWillisMP/videos/1000493451284780

    Next poll will probably show Labour support below 20%

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