tl;dr Biden is polling ahead of The $750 Man by more than 4% on average in states that add up to about 278 EC votes. That's the states Hillary won plus Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Polls showing Biden behind in these states are very few and far between, and only come from the most Repug-optimistic pollsters.
Biden is ahead by around 2%ish in Ohio (18 EC votes) and Arizona (11 EC votes). Most polls show Biden ahead, but Repug-optimistic pollsters mostly show Shartacus ahead, along with occasional polls from more middle of the road pollsters.
Florida (29) and North Carolina (15) average out either way depending on which polls the poll aggregator uses, but most aggregators put Biden ahead around 1%ish in these states.
On straight current polling average (no toss-ups), it's about 353 Biden – 185 Palputin, again depending on which polling aggregator you're looking at.
Well, yeah. There's a whole party dedicated to creating and protecting those $750 Men. And there's the other party that mostly wants to put a leash on them, however imperfectly.
But sadly, there’s a sector of the voting public that professes to be against the $750 Men, but spend all their energies whining about those imperfections.
How to stop it is a long slow painful process of being involved, and swallowing a lot of compromise and disappointment. It starts with getting involved at the party level, and supporting the candidate that is likeliest to move things in the direction you want, that actually has a chance of winning in a general election.
Then when it comes to the general election, again it's a matter of swallowing a dead rat and supporting the candidate most likely to move things in a direction you want that actually has a chance of winning. Which may even be someone inclined to move things a bit in a direction you don't want, in preference to someone inclined to move things hard and fast in a direction you really don't want.
What definitely doesn't work, but definitely helps the bastards win, is flouncing around whining about the flaws in who is actually your best available choice, which just helps your worst choice actually sneak through and get to do the damage that then has to be repaired next your preferred people get in, before even thinking about moving on to doing useful stuff.
From a polling view, yeah, it's stable and clear. But there's still the open question of how good the pollsters' turnout models are. And whether they've maybe even over-corrected the errors from 2016, which would put Iowa (6), Georgia (16), maybe even Texas (29) and Alaska (3) into play. For over 400 EC votes to Biden.
It might be New York State that puts him in jail first. They seem to be further along in their investigations. Presidolt Con's current audit problems with the IRS look to be resolvable by just coughing up $100million. But the IRS can always open new investigations, there's no statute of limitations for tax crimes AFAIK.
Of course, the Fifth Avenue Fraud is very likely to get off completely scot-free for what he most deserves jail for: his complete betrayal of country, oath of office, and the people he is supposed to be governing for. Of whom over 200,000 are now prematurely dead from his complete disinterest in doing his job, among many other criminally negligent failures.
Real Clear Politics seems to include a smallish range of pollsters that are a bit Repug-leaning on average. If you prefer to be a bit pessimistic so surprises are a bit more likely to be positive surprises, then yeah, focusing on RCP works.
To be clear first up, I don't think there's bias in the sense of deliberately putting a thumb on the scales. There's a lot of room for reasonable minds to differ in constructing turnout models, framing polling questions etc.
But then some pollsters makes decisions outside of what is generally considered good practice, such as Trafalgar Group explicitly operating a shy-Drumpf-voter hypothesis (although I've never seen what that means in actual practical terms), or Rasmussen Reports explicitly weighting by party identification (which changes at voter whim, unlike age, sex, education, ethnicity etc).
RCP includes Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen, but there have been times I've noticed some particularly Dem-positive polls from apparently well-regarded pollsters show up in Five ThirtyEight that haven't showed up in RCP (sorry can't immediately bring to mind which ones).
In general, it appears poll averages from 538, 270 to Win, CNN etc are a little bit Dem-positive compared to RCP. That's not to say RCP is worse and the others are better, it may indeed be that RCP has made a better choice of which pollsters to include in their average.
Voter suppression in the form of prior electoral roll purging by Republican-run state governments and the removal of physical voting booths in Democratic voting areas
Trump goons intimidating voters at booths
Delays in counting mail-in votes inflaming a narrative that the election is being 'stolen' and calls, or direct action, on stopping that count.
The Supreme Court's preparedness to tip the scales in Trumps favour if given the chance,e.g by stopping the count of mail-in votes, or allowing the dumping of special votes by people turning up to find themselves purged from the roll.
It has the potential to make the supposed, and sometimes invented, irregularities in Latin American elections that gets the USA so outraged, look like amateur hour.
Well, yeah, there is the assumption that bad faith actions won't be much worse than anything previously seen in, oh, the last hundred years or so. Which is looking like a really iffy assumption, so the question is whether a Biden win would be sufficiently clear and conclusive to overcome all the expected fuckery.
Each state gets one Electoral College vote per member of Congress. So low population states like Wyoming or Alaska get 3 EC votes, one for their sole House Representative, and two for their two Senators. (Washington DC also gets 3 EC votes by special provision, even though it doesn't get voting members of Congress). That's one EC vote per 200,000ish population.
At the other end of the population range, Californai gets 55 EC votes for its 40 million population, 53 for its 53 House Reps, and two for its two Senators. Which is around 1 EC vote per 700,000ish population.
There's a good chart if you scroll down the wikipedia article – for some reason embedding the image doesn't seem to work.
edit: and the three million American citizens living in Puerto Rico don’t get to vote for prez or be represented in Congress. Cos PR is a territory, not a state
Judith Collins, who takes malicious delight in attacking others, is upset Jacinda referenced her history with the SFO (poor wee thing). I was delighted to see Jacinda's 'forthright' comment on the news reminding people of this.
Like all bullies, Collins is happy to dish it out though. Perhaps if she can't take the heat in the kitchen she shouldn't be there, to quote Collins' words on Jacinda.
If anyone has dealt with the heat in the kitchen in the last three years, it is our PM – terrorist shootings, a volcanic eruption, months of Covid worries. And becoming a new mum while being PM is no small feat.
It seems it was hard for Collins to get under Jacindas skin on the last debate. It would not be hard to get under Collins skin as seen by her response to Jacindas comment.
2:15 mins – another vicious attack on Nicky Hager.
8:30 mins – claims Labour has no fiscal plans and don’t intend to put one out. So, what has Robertson and Co. been doing and saying for the past 3 years? Nothing? What about the plethora of policy they’ve been dishing out in recent times? That doesn’t constitute a plan?
She even had the gall to try and infer this government is to blame for the current state of the Auckland Harbour Bridge.
She’s well and truly heading for lala land based on today’s rhetoric thus far.
She kept saying: "That's what Christians believe… I'm a Christian… That's what Christians believe…"
Does anyone else get the impression this desperate woman is fishing desperately for the loons in the Billy T.K. Party to "come on board" her sinking boat?
To put the above in context, Collins is so slippery, it started off with her saying that Nicky Hager was a terrible man and making herself out to be an innocent victim, and then saying that one day he'll meet his Maker.
When questioned on that she went round and round like dirty water down a plughole, saying that everyone will meet their Maker one day, she is sure on that point. Then being questioned as to the reference sounding rather threatening, she just fudged again and made it into a Christian POV that everyone will die and meet their Maker.
I'm uneasy that religion is popping up in the discourse from National. It seems that the Right are finding that references like this reinforce their probity in the minds of dull, unthinking constituents of which there are many.
There is a post now by Micky devoted to this discussion over at – Judith Collins, Nicky Hager and Dirty Politics.
dont think the natz pollsters are earning their $$$ if they think appealing to religios is the way to redemption. a secular country going even more secular is going to turn even further away from the natz towards their one time poodle. for all of acts faults(page not big enough to list) they are NOT religious(only the religion of self interest) with the nats, advance, and new cons all claiming gods on their side, good luck with that..!oops, forgot bishop brian, phuck, god will be busy..
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You might think that is the rational way that citizens will behave woodart, that is for you to say. They might regard religion as meaning traditional sects. But don't forget Glorioushome or what it's called. People are being pulled to churches all over the place, if they aren't drowning themselves in beer or drugs, or using sport to control their random thoughts. Every second child is called Elijah or Rebecca or similar.
Natz may be very happy to go to a church with bells and whistles and incense and a huge choir. All the people who can’t manage to achieve their eminence will be put on charity, the government doesn’t want to bother with losers. They will hand out potato peelings for soup and feel satisfied and good to their marrow. That’s how it used to be and once you accept that people are either good or part of the poor that will always be with us, then you can stop trying to force people up beyond their actual capacities that establish them as lower class. This is how some will already be talking – the real estate class who think themselves terribly clever at being able to sell secure assets to people prepared to dispossess most of the world’s population.
The worse things get the more people will be drawn to something. Possibly the Conspiracy Theory party. In the USA they are touting that there will be Trump Goons at the polls etc. Shades of 1930's Germany when people's minds were played with. People aren't happy – alt right, Billy K whatever can fill up empty minds. Take away television for a night and people will be running to the Children of Light or such – Scientology is building a new place here I think.
And why do you need proof? Do you belong to some sort of religious terrorist group which will go and round them all up and kneel for hours on hard boards while they sing rousing songs? Shame on you.
That is really stupid DTB. You are getting fixated on your opinions and arguments as you have got older. People can know things from their memory and not be able to give details of why and when. People can also know things generally and widely that commonly apply, just not to everybody. And you can just calm down and try and remain rational.
He has told people a story about how his helicopter was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade when covering the war in Iraq. However, the fact is that the helicopter he was in was not the one got hit. Also, when the strike happened, his helicopter was an hour away from the strike location. His experience shows a part of the unreliability of human memory.
Elizabeth Loftus, a professor the at the University of California who experted in human memory, calls William’s story a “teaching mement,” which is a typical example of false memory. According to her, false memory happens when a person “remembers” something happened that actually did not.
People can also know things generally and widely that commonly apply, just not to everybody.
No, they can't. That would require you to know stuff that you haven't been taught or researched.
And you can just calm down and try and remain rational.
I'm perfectly rational in calling you a liar because you're lying. You have absolutely no idea how people spend their time as a result of them not being religious.
"You have absolutely no idea how people spend their time as a result of them not being religious."
DtB, couldn't your strong assertion (above) also be considered a lie? After all, presumably greywarshark has some idea of how some non-religious people spend some of their time. Heck, I know hardly anyone, and yet your statement would still be a lie if I was its target
greywarshark's assertion is on the same level as calling all Māori slackers because some do drugs and don't work on Saturdays.
And, here's a thing, I know plenty of religious people who act exactly as greywarshark says non-religious people act. Get a heap of drugs and watch sport on TV.
There's an argument the satsuma shitgibbon really is a genius – at suckering a significant number of people into believing the hype he creates about himself.
Consider, for at least the last three decades, the only ventures that have apparently created positive cash-flow for him are those where someone else has paid him for use of that self-hype. The Apprentice, various licensing deals. Everything else he touched apparently turned to shit, from which he sometimes salvaged a bit by fleecing suckers hoping to cash in on the hype as they disappear down the gurgler – eg his casinos, and now, running the country.
He is certainly good at getting plenty of attention and column inches devoted to his every action/inaction.
That kinda happens when someone is the leader leader of a big powerful country and devotes himself, well, what little effort isn't spent on serving himself, to actively destroying much of what a majority of that country and indeed the rest of the world holds dear. After he's surrounded himself with enablers that share his destructive goals.
And no, ignoring it won't make it go away or even make it a teeny-tiny bit better. Nor will deluding oneself that his opponents are somehow equivalent.
I hope that the attitude of government after Treaty settlements is not that Maori people generally are not going to be considered much by government, and they should look to their own iwi for support. The Treaty settlements were to recompense, to a small extent, for the land and resources taken from Maori which the NZ state was built on.
So I hope that there is $10 million or more going to Maori initiatives in the region, not necessarily for the built infrastructure, but in training, skills learning. And I would like to see it being family oriented so that older members could join as students if they wished, so all would learn as a cohesive group. Because I think that there is a family way of looking at life planning, and parents are more likely to support their teenagers into skill learning if they themselves have background in post-school education.
And just a thought – they looked really good, well muscled and fit and better than the body-builders, who carry so much muscle that they might find it difficult to walk without chafing of their legs, and work where their arm muscles rub against their sides.
Yet another reason the US supreme Court badly needs reform because of how unrepresentative it is: after Barrett is rammed through, it will be 2/3 Roman Catholic.
That recalls to mind a Sharon Murdoch cartoon (stuff Sep.25/19) about NZ religion with wise old Yoda saying 'Religious we are not'. 50% of NZ stated No Religion in a survey. The Catholics get and hold their congregations by hook or by crook – of The Good Shepherd I mean.
The irreligious may not fill the gap with any value-based morality, rather spending Sundays at sport, drinking beer, driving 4-wheel drives through mud pugs, up rivers – very physically oriented with no exercise of intellectual or philosophical function. So other details from the NZ study:
20,409 said they were Jedi
4248 were in The Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster
The irreligious may not fill the gap with any value-based morality, rather spending Sundays at sport, drinking beer, driving 4-wheel drives through mud pugs, up rivers – very physically oriented with no exercise of intellectual or philosophical function.
Citation needed
Haven't come across a religion yet that's values based – except possibly wicca with its an it harm none, do as thou wilt.
The author dug deep & zealously into the background of history, so you encounter a stream of surprising facts unlikely to impress casual readers. Only works for those with a deep grasp of history – if it fits into that context. As someone who has read history in-depth for around 65 years, I was pleasantly surprised at how well-justified his compilation of evidence turned out to be.
Note the amusing verdict of Publisher's Weekly – obviously written by a catholic! Too lazy to read history, uses normalcy as a security blanket due to being at the toddler stage of emotional maturity…
That said, I can always tell when a belief is warping a writer's judgment, and Saussy skates on thin ice at times. But he does seem diligent at dispassionate appraisal.
Winning the presidency for JFK was the culmination of a centuries-old agenda, in which a global power began in new terrain from a position of uncharacteristic powerlessness and extreme adversity. The account of methods used to overturn that historical reality is compelling. The current Supreme Court situation fits the thesis like a glove.
So i am not wasting your time, you are wasting it all on your own, as you could easily have simply scrolled by my comment, which is on topic, without insults to anyone, and not deragotry by any means. But feel free to ban me for not promoting some fancyful ideas of the Green that i find to be half baked.
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
[No Sabine, as a moderator I can’t simply scroll by. If mods did that on every problematic comment, the site would stop functioning.
As well as wasting my time, you’re also now posting bullshit about moderation and my motivations. I want critique of GP policy, because it makes it and democracy stronger. I wish more people would give us useful critique. What you posted was sloppy and misleading. I can’t stop people being sloppy, but there is a bottom line around not misleading. You’re not being modded for your opinions about the Greens’ policy, you’re being modded for posting misleading comments about the policy during an election campaign. Had you backed up your comment, we’d be having a different conversation, but you won’t even do us the respect of that.
You either have a comprehension problem, or you are basically saying fuck you to the site and moderation and thinking you can do what you want.
You have a choice now. Either do what most people do and get on board with the way commenting works here, including moderation, or you can expect to be treated as a special case. If you want to be a special case, my next move will most likely be to ban you until after the election, because I’m not willing to spend my time going over and over this, I’d rather be writing posts.
“Listen, if I pick up a bag of $1,000 cash in the South Island and I deposit that into a private bank account and wire the money to another private bank account in the North Island, and then someone else withdraws that $1,000 from a relatively unfrequented ATM at 2am in the morning, is that money the same money? How did it magically teleport from island to island? The answer is it didn’t, because it isn’t the same money. It’s separate.”
Hmmm, the only info I can find about this comes from Mate. Nothing from anybody with a shred of credibility.
It's apparently an Arria-formula meeting. Any member of the Security Council can call one for whatever reason they feel like. It has zero actual significance within the UN that I can tell. I wonder which Security Council member called it? It would be unkind of me to speculate based on who is "testifying" at it.
Looks to me like it's another bullshit stunt similar to the one Eva Bartlett pulled to generate clickbait misinformation falsely trying to give themselves the credibility of the UN, that gullible convergence moonbats will then amplify and spread.
And you're having a go at Eva Bartlett too, I note. Do you think anyone other than you thinks your "convergence moonbat" concoction has ever impressed anyone other than the sad fellows who spend all day dreaming up orange-themed and gibbon-themed labels to fling at President Drumpf?
Your tactical decision to go all the way with those brilliant strategists of the DNC is leading you into wholesale abuse of journalists. I'm sure that in your more reflective moments, i.e. away from the adrenaline-filled arena of social media squabbling, you realize you are making some foolish and indefensible choices. Heaping abuse on journalists—and Eva Bartlett and Aaron Maté are, like Nicky Hager, renowned for their integrity and independence—is a foolish and indefensible choice if ever there was one.
Still, going all the way with the democracy-hating Democratic Party—the Obama/Biden regime prosecuted, imprisoned and persecuted whistleblowers and journalists even more than the Bush/Cheney regime, and leading Democrats are as bloodthirsty in their rhetoric against Julian Assange as any Repug. is—is a choice you have made. We at this mostly excellent forum have had to put up with the evidence of that almost every day for the last four years.
You got any argument for why this thing from Aaron Mate should be viewed as anything more than an attempted deceptive misinformation stunt?
BTW, that looks to me like quite a smear on Nicky Hager. I'd be curious to hear how Hager himself feels about being being lumped in with Bartlett and Mate.
So Aaron Maté does not have a "shred of credibility"? Well, of course you would say that, wouldn't you. You sound just like Mrs Collins denigrating another journalist this morning. https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018766202
“Two of the country's biggest companies will use Aotearoa in their names rather than New Zealand.”
Both companies Vodafone and DDB, are branches of big international companies.
DDB is part of DDB Worldwide, an Omnicom company a highly ranked, worldwide advertising agency. Includes company information and philosophy, clients, and global contact information.
If our country is up for renaming then it is for New Zealanders to instigate and decide not for international companies to stick their oar into and stir up discontent in our nation.
The committee also noted that there are references throughout legislation to both “Aotearoa” and “New Zealand” and that while not legislated, the use of bilingual titles throughout Parliament and government agencies is common.
"However, at present we do not consider that a legal name change, or a referendum on the same change, is needed", the committee said.
Still, I'm amazed that Māori aren't up in arms about its misuse as, traditionally, it didn't refer to all of NZ:
Before the period of contact with Europeans, Māori did not have a commonly-used name for the entire New Zealand archipelago. As late as the 1890s the name was used in reference to the North Island only; an example of this usage appeared in the first issue of Huia Tangata Kotahi, a Māori-language newspaper published on February 8, 1893. It contained the dedication on the front page, "He perehi tenei mo nga iwi Maori, katoa, o Aotearoa, mete Waipounamu",[9] meaning "This is a publication for the Māori tribes of the North Island and the South Island".
Good point Janet. I consider that for business New Zealand is a brand name and the official one we want to be known by.
I don't know what is going on in the minds of these large corps but they might be trying some diviseness, perhaps making deals that suit Maori and don't fit in with the official country laws, and playing one off against the other. There will be money in it, it's just playing for advantage to them.
Legal eagles, can we stop this use of Aotearoa as alternative name for New Zealand being done by force majeure?
I don't like this business of using Maori names for everything, it confuses. It should be noted that English is the main business and computer language, and while I think we should be talking te reo frequently I see disadvantages for the country in naming basic agencies and methods in Maori. It is confusing to hear the Transport Authority called something else starting with Ko… What? is the reaction. Then one wonders, is it the same as the TA? Has it changed in the way it performs its role? Can important matters fall through the cracks when a Maori word is inserted in dialogue? Does it mean a number of things and the effect of it is misunderstood?
Think of Oranga Tamariki – what does that convey to most? If it was called the Baby Health and Safety Removal Agency that would result in clarity of purpose, no confusion. But the Maori name implies that culturally appropriate, kind and acceptable methods will be used.
Actually I really like the use of dual names – then we can get to pick the one that suits Mt Taranaki or Mt Egmont. It also cuts off a lot of divisive baiting along the lines of Brash and his Hobson pledge framing and straight out arguments over which name to use. Although I notice over time the european name tends to fall into disuse.
And at some level why were local place names over ridden by the names of dodgy british aristocrats – its a bit urrgh. I mean if they were being named today how keen would anyone be on Boristown or Dodgy Dave Cameron Street?
So I think its good that overseas companies acknowledge this – even if the motivation is commercial.
Our passports use both names and frankly I think they are an absolute work of art. Don't know who thought of it or did it but all credit they are wonderful. I have even had it admired by overseas passport officers.
There was a thought that religion might be raising its head in our politics in a way that isn't positive. I think, with a shiver from looking at Trump's latest conservative Catholic to the Supreme Court, and the doings of some male-dominant states turning women's rights to women's wrongs.
I put up a Wikipedia piece on European wars that had religion firmly mixed in them on Daily Review 29/9. This is a second para to that. I found it fascinating and alarming.
The conflicts began with the minor Knights' Revolt (1522), followed by the larger German Peasants' War (1524–1525) in the Holy Roman Empire. Warfare intensified after the Catholic Church began the Counter-Reformation in 1545 against the growth of Protestantism. The conflicts culminated in the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648), which devastated Germany and killed one-third of its population, a mortality rate twice that of World War I. The Peace of Westphalia (1648) broadly resolved the conflicts by recognising three separate Christian traditions in the Holy Roman Empire: Roman Catholicism, Lutheranism, and Calvinism.
Although many European leaders were "sickened" by the bloodshed by 1648, smaller religious wars continued to be waged in the post-Westphalian period until the 1710s, including the Wars of the ThreeKingdoms (1639–1651) on the British Isles, the Savoyard–Waldensian wars (1655–1690), and the Toggenburg War (1712) in the Western Alps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_wars_of_religion
It is not surprising that the Catholic Church was so involved in all of this history as it generally did all of those services that governments do today from census to education and health and science research and oversaw a lot of legal stoushes as well as diplomacy and defence and pretty much anything else you can think of.
In most places it was the government as rulers were pretty inept.
Mmm well we are still with inept government despite training in Hogwarts academy etc. Religion has learned a thing or two also but tends to be dogmatic more than government, putting pressure on govt from outside. Church government would be hell, it would take just a short time to get there. In the USA it and money and power are interwoven – best to control it and sit the dog outside the door – keep it as part of an ethics committee.
The Terminally Bewildered versus the Unspeakably Disgusting. As Jacinda Ardern so memorably said about the hastily put together Collins-Brownlee posters: "It doesn't exactly scream Dynamic Duo."
Didn't watch any of it. Actually, I doubt I'd have the fortitude to watch it even on pain of getting cattle-prodded if my attention wavered.
But from the commentary, it sounds like it went as everyone expected going into it. The mandarin manutang made a lot of nonsensical contradictory noise unrelated to the actual question in his Asshole-in-Chief routine, and Biden mostly let him do his thing in a low-key way.
Nobody has mentioned anything that even vaguely resembles a debate moment that people will refer in the future – no "there you go again" or anyone looking at their watch, or looking pasty and sweaty with a 5 o'clock shadow. So all-in-all, kind of a pointless waste of everyone's time.
Unless maybe both Biden and Chris Wallace literally telling the orange anusmouth mouth to shut up might get used as a symbol to illustrate just how unrestrained Dolt45 actually was.
No clanger, and fortunately for Biden and non Trump supporters, he got the best jabs in on the night.
Not coming over as king prick and making it clear to the unswayed voters you're okay and worth the benefit of the doubt over your opponent, is the real purpose behind these debates. Getting it through how he is the Democratic party, that any green deal will be his plan, will probably help win a few more votes… Unless they were the kind that were never going to vote for him anyway and just looking for an excuse, like happens on here from the usual suspects, most of the time come every election.
Generally in a debate if you're on the defensive and forced into discussing your opponent's talking points, then its not a great sign… The clip above was fairly typical of the debate, Trump was literally running rings around Biden. "Weekend at Bidens" has literally nothing going for him to attract swing voters, especially in a live performance where his opponent has all the energy.
For the second time tonight, that wasn't the debate I watched, but more importantly, not the one the media or general public saw – Going by the general reaction and collective Trump bashing.
By the way, not seen your Biden's new green deal clanger mentioned, which somewhat sort of hacks away the patellas of your point.
Neo lib has come along like a new religion – belief and promises of a smooth running business heaven are mingled. Neolib doesn't mind if it turns freemen into serfs and at the same time telling them that they are not disregarded objects of charity like those on benefits. So workers getting sacked from their old jobs become contractors, standing tall, alone and proud not like the welfare whiners they think.
But neolib is a business and money-gouging conception. The Press has a sorry tale about the contractors to a small lone builder who has absorbed the More business virus and is erecting legal entities, building, using his subbies as credit providers they claim, not paying them, dismantling the legal entity and starting off again the same, though it is supposed to be against the explicit law. Also the builder quotes Master Builders membership though he has been struck off, and a recommendation by a well-known name. Looks good, smells very bad for the No Regulations Friendly Country. Blah……..
https://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-press/20200929/281479278859135 Debt-ridden builder has new outfit – Sep.29/20 …The Companies Act says a director cannot run what is known as a phoenix company – one trading in the same business using the same or a similar name as their failed one – before or within five years after the liquidation…
May Moncur, an Auckland law employment advocate, believed too many businesses were using liquidation as a way of avoiding their liabilities. They keep the business running by starting up another company, and continue as normal.
‘‘In New Zealand, putting a company into liquidation is so easy and not expensive. There is a loophole in the law.’’
There are some rules around owner distributions that can be clawed back but there is a cost to the civil action so it often doesn't get actioned.
But I would expect the IRD in the current climate to oppose the liquidation and strike off of companies that have received any of the wage subsidies or loans to prevent the owners taking the money and then collapsing the entity until they have confirmed that it is all valid. And the IRD should make that public.
On the upside the physical fleeing of jurisdiction is not quite as easy as before.
There are some rules around owner distributions that can be clawed back but there is a cost to the civil action so it often doesn't get actioned.
Yes, a civil action that the workers, who can't afford legal council, have to do and there ends justice.
But I would expect the IRD in the current climate
I think the IRD need to be doing that as a matter of course every time that a liquidation occurs. If they don't then we end up with the above which pretty much is state sanctioned theft.
The civil action can be any creditors but yes waged employees can lose a lot of money in some of these situations as even their preferred status frequently doesn't cover them off.
I have always wondered why the law and unions don't ask for wages to be transferred out of companies at the gross amounts owed. For a really simple example net wages are paid, taxes go to the IRD and then a further amount to cover any holiday pay, long service leave, redundancies etc gets paid off to a "trust account" managed by a third party which could be say the IRD. Then if everything goes to custard the amounts in trust cover the employee entitlements. Businesses would then get a heads up earlier that they are not making money and they would not be relying on the employee based free funding that can be pretty substantial.
The government and its agencies might be being hoist on their own petard. How soon can we undermine this cumbersome inadequate agency that we thought we paid taxes to to keep things going reasonably sweetly? They have reduced regulations, and everything else, but the MPs show signs of being Mr Creosote's family. Give ya a technicolour chunder as Barry McKenzie used to say.
My partner and I are voting in the NZ GE today – Kiwis in Oz are the first in the world to vote, although they said on ABC radio this morning that only 40,000 kiwis out of the 600,000 here are enrolled. The voting process is a bit of a mission. Forms have to be downloaded, then filled in, and then scanned and uploaded back on to the NZ Elections site. I wonder what the percentage of voters would be if everyone had to do that? (there are a few polling stations open in Oz, but nowhere near us)
No. They have to be printed, then signed in front of a witness! The odd thing is that the witness can be anyone in your family. Remember doing it before in 2017 – from Fiji. The other odd thing is that when you upload the forms your name and ref number is sent with your referendum, electorate and party votes. It doesn't seem very secret.
The other odd thing is that when you upload the forms your name and ref number is sent with your referendum, electorate and party votes. It doesn't seem very secret.
It's never been secret except possibly in the dark days of the 19th and early 20th century. Need to be able to check off the voter according to the voter registration so as to prevent people voting twice, people voting who shouldn't be etcetera.
On a completely different topic "kindness". I have seen a number of peeps saying something along the lines of "NZ is not being kind" usually when they have been told "no" to something they want which is well outside the rules. Mostly I see this as just complaining when they don't get their own way.
I see "kindness" as something that is "given freely" not some thing that anyone should expect to receive (nice though it is when it happens) and be entitled to complain about if they don't .
It's an interpretation thing, Red Baron CV. And it is sometimes misinterpreted.
To clarify things for you from my perspective:
Often, when I don't get my own way I act in a kindly way to myself by both being pissed off about not getting my own way and sometimes expressing to others that I am pissed off also.
They, in turn, then start being kind to themselves by telling me to shut up and to stop complaining.
It could be that you choose to ameliorate a siuation when you could have been punitive or dismissive.
But people who have been brought up to expect a positive response to everything they want are suffering from the indulgent decades, those reflecting Ayn Rand's The Virtue of Selfishness.
Or: Imagine a world where leaders are able to pass power directly to their children. These children are plucked from their nurseries and sent to beautiful compounds far away from all the other children. They are given the best teachers, the best facilities, the best doctors and the best food. Each day the children are told that the reason they're here is because they are the brightest and most important children in the world.
good post redbaron. no, its not just you. we live in a "give them an inch, and they want the whole quarter acre" society nowdays. and the media make headlines out of moaners. what was it last week, "quarantine food so horrible they had to eat their own shoes" or some such bullshit. I would say NZ is being exceptionally kind , and having a close friend who is working nights for immigration, talking to, and finding solutions for kiwis, from countries you havent heard of, needing all sorts of things that are well outside the box , has certainly opened my mind.
I did see one food post where it looked like the budget company employed had done a dreadful job. Plus it had supplied coke and lemonade as lunchtime drinks. I'd have been pretty annoyed with that if I had had kids. Sugar highs in hotels rooms. I do suspect the food reflects the underlying grade of the hotel and the prfits they are trying to wrench off the contracts.
Well according to those I follow on Twitter I didn’t miss much on the 2 grumpy old muppets of Bernie and Waldorf from the US Presidential Debate this morning. Thank god & for its various faults that we have the Westminster System in NZ & in Oz unless someone corrects me.
Just referring to Woodart's post and the misreporting he mentioned regarding people in quarantine said to have been eating their shoes.
All I can say is that if they did have to eat their shoes, they don't know how lucky were!
I was imprisoned by WINZ for an extended period of time, and then forced to eat my hat after I had previously told people that I would eat the damn thing if I ever found welfare dependency to be harsher than being gainfully employed or in business.
Well, it was harsher and I have had indigestion ever since.
Which brings me to a linked subject which is Covid-19 handouts.
My view is that if New Zealanders find themselves with their heads above the sour milk and bitter honey welfare dependency mammary gland feed, they should take whatever handouts are available to keep them to get them through, whether employed or in business, whilst the handout money is still flowing. They should take the money with no feelings of guilt whatsoever.
The choice of walking from a failing business or a job with fewer fringe benefits might actually lead to permanent subsistence welfare dependency even after reaching superannuation eligibility age, unless people have a guaranteed accommodation arrangement already in place and already paid for.
Don't walk away to the dole queue unless you have no other choice. In the long run, it just ain't worth it.
Look. Even if you have to bend (not break) government rules and ignore certain societal fostered assertions in relation to start up enterprise or self reliance, if you can do it with a chance of success, then give it a try.
Given that my current financial disposition appears precarious, I may now withdraw from these read and post sessions (as enlightening and entertaining as they have been) and seek to find some way I can use my spare time to an obtain extra, and hopefully a more reliable, income source.
Salvation Army’s State of the Nation 2025 report highlights falling living standards, the highest unemployment rates since the 1990s and half of all Pacific children going without food. There are reports of hundreds if not thousands of people are applying for the same jobs in the wake of last year’s ...
Mountain Tui is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Correction: On the article The Condundrum of David Seymour, Luke Malpass conducted joint reviews with Bryce Wilkinson, the architect of the Regulatory Standards Bill - not Bryce Edwards. The article ...
Tomorrow the council’s Transport, Resilience and Infrastructure Committee meet and agenda has a few interesting papers. Council’s Letter of Expectation to Auckland Transport Every year the council provide a Letter of Expectation to Auckland Transport which is part of the process for informing AT of the council’s priorities and ...
All around in my home townThey're trying to track me down, yeahThey say they want to bring me in guiltyFor the killing of a deputyFor the life of a deputySongwriter: Robert Nesta Marley.Support Nick’s Kōrero today with a 20% discount on a paid subscription to receive all my newsletters directly ...
Hi,I think all of us have probably experienced the power of music — that strange, transformative thing that gets under our skin and helps us experience this whole life thing with some kind of sanity.Listening and experiencing music has always been such a huge part of my life, and has ...
Business frustration over the stalled economy is growing, and only 34% of voters are confidentNicola Willis can deliver. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, February 12 are:Business frustration is growing about a ...
I have now lived long enough to see a cabinet minister go both barrels on their Prime Minister and not get sacked.It used to be that the PM would have a drawer full of resignations signed by ministers on the day of their appointment, ready for such an occasion. But ...
This session will feature Simon McCallum, Senior Lecturer in Engineering and Computer Science (VUW) and recent Labour Party candidate in the Southland Electorate talking about some of the issues around AI and how this should inform Labour Party policy. Simon is an excellent speaker with a comprehensive command of AI ...
The proposed Waimate garbage incinerator is dead: The company behind a highly-controversial proposal to build a waste-to-energy plant in the Waimate District no longer has the land. [...] However, SIRRL director Paul Taylor said the sales and purchase agreement to purchase land from Murphy Farms, near Glenavy, lapsed at ...
The US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act has been a vital tool in combatting international corruption. It forbids US companies and citizens from bribing foreign public officials anywhere in the world. And its actually enforced: some of the world's biggest companies - Siemens, Hewlett Packard, and Bristol Myers Squibb - have ...
December 2024 photo - with UK Tory Boris Johnson (Source: Facebook)Those PollsFor hours, political poll results have resounded across political hallways and commentary.According to the 1News Verizon poll, 50% of the country believe we are heading in the “wrong direction”, while 39% believe we are “on the right track”.The left ...
A Tai Rāwhiti mill that ran for 30 years before it was shut down in late 2023 is set to re-open in the coming months, which will eventually see nearly 300 new jobs in the region. A new report from Massey University shows that pensioners are struggling with rising costs. ...
As support continues to fall, Luxon also now faces his biggest internal ructions within the coalition since the election, with David Seymour reacting badly to being criticised by the PM. File photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate ...
Not since 1988 when Richard Prebble openly criticised David Lange have we seen such a challenge to a Prime Minister as that of David Seymour to Christopher Luxon last night. Prebble suggested Lange had mental health issues during a TV interview and was almost immediately fired. Seymour hasn’t gone quite ...
Three weeks in, and the 24/7 news cycle is not helping anyone feel calm and informed about the second Trump presidency. One day, the US is threatening 25% trade tariffs on its friends and neighbours. The reasons offered by the White House are absurd, such as stopping fentanyl coming in ...
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Wherever you look, you'll hear headlines claiming we've passed 1.5 degrees of global warming. And while 2024 saw ...
Photo by Heather M. Edwards on UnsplashHere’s the key news, commentary, reports and debate around Aotearoa’s politics and economy in the week to Feb 10 below. That’s ahead of live chats on the Substack App and The Kākā’s front page on Substack at 5pm with: on his column in The ...
Is there anyone in the world the National Party loves more than a campaign donor? Why yes, there is! They will always have the warmest hello and would you like to slip into something more comfortable for that great god of our age, the High Net Worth Individual.The words the ...
Waste and fraud certainly exist in foreign aid programs, but rightwing celebration of USAID’s dismantling shows profound ignorance of the value of soft power (as opposed to hard power) in projecting US influence and interests abroad by non-military/coercive means (think of “hearts and minds,” “hugs, not bullets,” “honey versus vinegar,” ...
Health New Zealand is proposing to cut almost half of its data and digital positions – more than 1000 of them. The PSA has called on the Privacy Commissioner to urgently investigate the cuts due to the potential for serious consequences for patients. NZNO is calling for an urgent increase ...
We may see a few more luxury cars on Queen Street, but a loosening of rules to entice rich foreigners to invest more here is unlikely to “turbocharge our economic growth”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate ...
Let us not dance daintily around the elephant in the room. Our politicians who serve us in the present are not honest, certainly not as honest as they should be, and while the right are taking out most of the trophies for warping narratives and literally redefining “facts”, the kiwi ...
A few weeks ago I took a look at public transport ridership in 2024. In today’s post I’m going to be looking a bit deeper at bus ridership. Buses make up the vast majority of ridership in Auckland with 70 million boardings last year out of a total of 89.4 ...
Oh, you know I did itIt's over and I feel fineNothing you could say is gonna change my mindWaited and I waited the longest nightNothing like the taste of sweet declineSongwriters: Chris Shiflett / David Eric Grohl / Nate Mendel / Taylor Hawkins.Hindsight is good, eh?The clarity when the pieces ...
Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on UnsplashHere’s what we’re watching in the week to February 16 and beyond in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty:Monday, February 10The Kākā’s weekly wrap-up of news about politics and the economy is due at midday, followed by webinar for paying subscribers in Substack’s ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, February 2, 2025 thru Sat, February 8, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
Today, I stumbled across a Twitter Meme: the ending of The Lord of the Rings as a Chess scenario: https://x.com/mellon_heads/status/1887983845917564991 It gets across the basic gist. Aragorn and Gandalf offering up ‘material’ at the Morannon allows Frodo and Samwise to catch Sauron unawares – fair enough. But there are a ...
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At a funeral on Friday, there were A4-sized photos covering every wall of the Dil’s reception lounge. There must have been 200 of them, telling the story in the usual way of the video reel but also, by enlargement, making it more possible to linger and step in.Our friend Nicky ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with members from our team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is methane the ...
The Government’s idea is that the private sector and Community Housing Providers will fund, build and operate new affordable housing to address our housing crisis. Meanwhile, the Government does not know where almost half of the 1,700 children who left emergency housing actually went. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong ...
Oh, home, let me come homeHome is wherever I'm with youOh, home, let me come homeHome is wherever I'm with youSongwriters: Alexander Ebert / Jade Allyson CastrinosMorena,I’m on a tight time frame this morning. In about an hour and a half, I’ll need to pack up and hit the road ...
This is a post about the Mountain Tui substack, and small tweaks - further to the poll and request post the other day. Please don’t read if you aren’t interested in my personal matters. Thank you all.After oohing-and-aahing about how to structure the Substack model since November, including obtaining ...
This transcript of a recent conversation between the Prime Minister and his chief economic adviser has not been verified.We’ve announced we are the ‘Yes Government’. Do you like it?Yes, Prime Minister.Dreamed up by the PR team. It’s about being committed to growth. Not that the PR team know anything about ...
The other day, Australian Senator Nick McKim issued a warning in the Australian Parliement about the US’s descent into fascim.And of course it’s true, but I lament - that was true as soon as Trump won.What we see is now simply the reification of the intention, planning, and forces behind ...
Among the many other problems associated with Musk/DOGE sending a fleet of teenage and twenty-something cultists to remove, copy and appropriate federal records like social security, medicaid and other supposedly protected data is the fact that the youngsters doing the data-removal, copying and security protocol and filter code over-writing have ...
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It’s been an eventful week as always, so here’s a few things that we have found interesting. We also hope everyone had a happy and relaxing Waitangi Day! This week in Greater Auckland We’re still running on summer time, but provided two chewy posts: On Tuesday, a guest ...
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The fact that Waitangi ended up being such a low-key affair may mark it out as one of the most significant Waitangi Days in recent years. A group of women draped in “Toitu Te Tiriti” banners who turned their backs on the politicians’ powhiri was about as rough as it ...
Hi,This week’s Flightless Bird episode was about “fake seizure guy” — a Melbourne man who fakes seizures in order to get members of the public to sit on him.The audio documentary (which I have included in this newsletter in case you don’t listen to Flightless Bird) built on reporting first ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk The 119th Congress comes with a price tag. The oil and gas industry gave about $24 million in campaign contributions to the members of the U.S. House and Senate expected to be sworn in January 3, 2025, according to a ...
Early morning, the shadows still long, but you can already feel the warmth building. Our motel was across the road from the historic homestead where Henry Williams' family lived. The evening before, we wandered around the gardens, reading the plaques and enjoying the close proximity to the history of the ...
Thanks folks for your feedback, votes and comments this week. I’ll be making the changes soon. Appreciate all your emails, comments and subscriptions too. I know your time is valuable - muchas gracias.A lot is happening both here and around the world - so I want to provide a snippets ...
Data released today by Statistics NZ shows that unemployment rose to 5.1%, with 33,000 more people out of work than last year said NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi Economist Craig Renney. “The latest data shows that employment fell in Aotearoa at its fastest rate since the GFC. Unemployment rose in 8 ...
The December labour market statistics have been released, showing yet another increase in unemployment. There are now 156,000 unemployed - 34,000 more than when National took office. And having thrown all these people out of work, National is doubling down on cruelty. Because being vicious will somehow magically create the ...
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This week Kiwirail and Auckland Transport were celebrating the completion of the summer rail works that had the network shut or for over a month and the start of electric trains to Pukekohe. First up, here’s parts of the press release about the shutdown works. Passengers boarding trains in Auckland ...
Through its austerity measures, the coalition government has engineered a rise in unemployment in order to reduce inflation while – simultaneously – cracking down harder and harder on the people thrown out of work by its own policies. To that end, Social Development Minister Louise Upston this week added two ...
This year, we've seen a radical, white supremacist government ignoring its Tiriti obligations, refusing to consult with Māori, and even trying to legislatively abrogate te Tiriti o Waitangi. When it was criticised by the Waitangi Tribunal, the government sabotaged that body, replacing its legal and historical experts with corporate shills, ...
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Catching you up on the morning’s global news and a quick look at the parallels -GLOBALTariffs are backSharemarkets in the US, UK and Europe have “plunged” in response to Trump’s tariffs. And while Mexico has won a one month reprieve, Canada and China will see their respective 25% and 10% ...
This post by Nicolas Reid was originally published on Linked in. It is republished here with permission. Gondolas are often in the news, with manufacturers of ropeway systems proposing them as a modern option for mass transit systems in New Zealand. However, like every next big thing in transport, it’s hard ...
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Hi,I woke up feeling nervous this morning, realising that this weekend Flightless Bird is going to do it’s first ever live show. We’re heading to a sold out (!) show in Seattle to test the format out in front of an audience. If it works, we’ll do more. I want ...
From the United-For-Now States of America comes the thrilling news that a New Zealander may be at the very heart of the current coup. Punching above our weight on the world stage once more! Wait, you may be asking, what New Zealander? I speak of Peter Thiel, made street legal ...
Even Stevens: Over the 33 years between 1990 and 2023 (and allowing for the aberrant 2020 result) the average level of support enjoyed by the Left and Right blocs, at roughly 44.5 percent each, turns out to be, as near as dammit, identical.WORLDWIDE, THE PARTIES of the Left are presented ...
Back in 2023, a "prominent political figure" went on trial for historic sex offences. But we weren't allowed to know who they were or what political party they were "prominent" in, because it might affect the way we voted. At the time, I said that this was untenable; it was ...
I'm going, I'm goingWhere the water tastes like wineI'm going where the water tastes like wineWe can jump in the waterStay drunk all the timeI'm gonna leave this city, got to get awayI'm gonna leave this city, got to get awayAll this fussing and fighting, man, you know I sure ...
Waitangi Day is a time to honour Te Tiriti o Waitangi and stand together for a just and fair Aotearoa. Across the motu, communities are gathering to reflect, kōrero, and take action for a future built on equity and tino rangatiratanga. From dawn ceremonies to whānau-friendly events, there are ...
Subscribe to Mountain Tūī ! Where you too can learn about exciting things from a flying bird! Tweet.Yes - I absolutely suck at marketing. It’s a fact.But first -My question to all readers is:How should I set up the Substack model?It’s been something I’ve been meaning to ask since November ...
Here’s the key news, commentary, reports and debate around Aotearoa’s political economy on politics and in the week to Feb 3:PM Christopher Luxon began 2025’s first day of Parliament last Tuesday by carrying on where left off in 2024, letting National’s junior coalition partner set the political agenda and dragging ...
The PSA have released a survey of 4000 public service workers showing that budget cuts are taking a toll on the wellbeing of public servants and risking the delivery of essential services to New Zealanders. Economists predict that figures released this week will show continued increases in unemployment, potentially reaching ...
The Prime Minister’s speech 10 days or so ago kicked off a flurry of commentary. No one much anywhere near the mainstream (ie excluding Greens supporters) questioned the rhetoric. New Zealand has done woefully poorly on productivity for a long time and we really need better outcomes, and the sorts ...
President Trump on the day he announced tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China, unleashing a shock to supply chains globally that is expected to slow economic growth and increase inflation for most large economies. Photo: Getty ImagesLong stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate ...
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The Salvation Army’s State of the Nation report is a bleak indictment on the failure of Government to take steps to end poverty, with those on benefits, including their children, hit hardest. ...
New Zealand First has today introduced a Member’s Bill which would restore decision-making power to local communities regarding the fluoridation of drinking water. The ‘Fluoridation (Referendum) Legislation Bill’ seeks to repeal the Health (Fluoridation of Drinking Water) Amendment Act 2021 that granted centralised authority to the Direct General of Health ...
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Erica Stanford has reached peak shortsightedness if today’s announcement is anything to go by, picking apart immigration settings piece by piece to the detriment of the New Zealand economy. ...
Our originating document, theTreaty of Waitangi, was signed on February 6, 1840. An agreement between Māori and the British Crown. Initially inked by Ngā Puhi in Waitangi, further signatures were added as it travelled south. The intention was to establish a colony with the cession of sovereignty to the Crown, ...
Te Whatu Ora Chief Executive Margie Apa leaving her job four months early is another symptom of this government’s failure to deliver healthcare for New Zealanders. ...
The Green Party is calling for the Prime Minister to show leadership and be unequivocal about Aotearoa New Zealand’s opposition to a proposal by the US President to remove Palestinians from Gaza. ...
The latest unemployment figures reveal that job losses are hitting Māori and Pacific people especially hard, with Māori unemployment reaching a staggering 9.7% for the December 2024 quarter and Pasifika unemployment reaching 10.5%. ...
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Despite being confronted every day with people in genuine need being stopped from accessing emergency housing – National still won’t commit to building more public houses. ...
The Green Party says the Government is giving up on growing the country’s public housing stock, despite overwhelming evidence that we need more affordable houses to solve the housing crisis. ...
Before any thoughts of the New Year and what lies ahead could even be contemplated, New Zealand reeled with the tragedy of Senior Sergeant Lyn Fleming losing her life. For over 38 years she had faithfully served as a front-line Police officer. Working alongside her was Senior Sergeant Adam Ramsay ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson will return to politics at Waitangi on Monday the 3rd of February where she will hold a stand up with fellow co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick. ...
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The Government is doubling down on outdated and volatile fossil fuels, showing how shortsighted and destructive their policies are for working New Zealanders. ...
Green Party MP Steve Abel this morning joined Coromandel locals in Waihi to condemn new mining plans announced by Shane Jones in the pit of the town’s Australian-owned Gold mine. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to strengthen its just-announced 2030-2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement and address its woeful lack of commitment to climate security. ...
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Labour is relieved to see Children’s Minister Karen Chhour has woken up to reality and reversed her government’s terrible decisions to cut funding from frontline service providers – temporarily. ...
It is the first week of David Seymour’s school lunch programme and already social media reports are circulating of revolting meals, late deliveries, and mislabelled packaging. ...
The Green Party says that with no-cause evictions returning from today, the move to allow landlords to end tenancies without reason plunges renters, and particularly families who rent, into insecurity and stress. ...
The Government’s move to increase speed limits substantially on dozens of stretches of rural and often undivided highways will result in more serious harm. ...
In her first announcement as Economic Growth Minister, Nicola Willis chose to loosen restrictions for digital nomads from other countries, rather than focus on everyday Kiwis. ...
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New Zealand’s strong commitment to the rights of disabled people has continued with the response to an important United Nations report, Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston has announced. Of the 63 concluding observations of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UNCRPD), 47 will be progressed ...
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Firstly I want to thank OceanaGold for hosting our event today. Your operation at Waihi is impressive. I want to acknowledge local MP Scott Simpson, local government dignitaries, community stakeholders and all of you who have gathered here today. It’s a privilege to welcome you to the launch of the ...
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Business confidence remains very high and shows the economy is on track to improve, Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis says. “The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey, released yesterday, shows business confidence and expected own activity are ‘still both very high’.” The survey reports business confidence fell eight points to +54 ...
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A good comprehensive look at where things are at state-by-state for getting to 270 Electoral College votes.
https://www.vox.com/21428915/electoral-college-trump-biden-2020
tl;dr Biden is polling ahead of The $750 Man by more than 4% on average in states that add up to about 278 EC votes. That's the states Hillary won plus Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Polls showing Biden behind in these states are very few and far between, and only come from the most Repug-optimistic pollsters.
Biden is ahead by around 2%ish in Ohio (18 EC votes) and Arizona (11 EC votes). Most polls show Biden ahead, but Repug-optimistic pollsters mostly show Shartacus ahead, along with occasional polls from more middle of the road pollsters.
Florida (29) and North Carolina (15) average out either way depending on which polls the poll aggregator uses, but most aggregators put Biden ahead around 1%ish in these states.
On straight current polling average (no toss-ups), it's about 353 Biden – 185 Palputin, again depending on which polling aggregator you're looking at.
About 1% Undecided, and a pretty stable margin, shows that there won't be much more movement.
I'd like to see IRS take Trump out after the election. And die in jail.
I wouldn't waste my time on Trump. I would put my time into stopping this from happening in the future as there are a lot of $750 Trump's in America.
Well, yeah. There's a whole party dedicated to creating and protecting those $750 Men. And there's the other party that mostly wants to put a leash on them, however imperfectly.
But sadly, there’s a sector of the voting public that professes to be against the $750 Men, but spend all their energies whining about those imperfections.
How long have the $750 club been getting away with it?
I don't like it and how to stop it is the problem?
How to stop it is a long slow painful process of being involved, and swallowing a lot of compromise and disappointment. It starts with getting involved at the party level, and supporting the candidate that is likeliest to move things in the direction you want, that actually has a chance of winning in a general election.
Then when it comes to the general election, again it's a matter of swallowing a dead rat and supporting the candidate most likely to move things in a direction you want that actually has a chance of winning. Which may even be someone inclined to move things a bit in a direction you don't want, in preference to someone inclined to move things hard and fast in a direction you really don't want.
What definitely doesn't work, but definitely helps the bastards win, is flouncing around whining about the flaws in who is actually your best available choice, which just helps your worst choice actually sneak through and get to do the damage that then has to be repaired next your preferred people get in, before even thinking about moving on to doing useful stuff.
😂
Could it be that they aspire to join the club?
After all 'aspirational' is abundant in the contemporary political lexicon.
From a polling view, yeah, it's stable and clear. But there's still the open question of how good the pollsters' turnout models are. And whether they've maybe even over-corrected the errors from 2016, which would put Iowa (6), Georgia (16), maybe even Texas (29) and Alaska (3) into play. For over 400 EC votes to Biden.
It might be New York State that puts him in jail first. They seem to be further along in their investigations. Presidolt Con's current audit problems with the IRS look to be resolvable by just coughing up $100million. But the IRS can always open new investigations, there's no statute of limitations for tax crimes AFAIK.
Of course, the Fifth Avenue Fraud is very likely to get off completely scot-free for what he most deserves jail for: his complete betrayal of country, oath of office, and the people he is supposed to be governing for. Of whom over 200,000 are now prematurely dead from his complete disinterest in doing his job, among many other criminally negligent failures.
I find Realclearpolitics the best and easiest predictor of what will happen.
President
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Senate (crucial)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map.html
House
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/house/2020_elections_house_map.html
Real Clear Politics seems to include a smallish range of pollsters that are a bit Repug-leaning on average. If you prefer to be a bit pessimistic so surprises are a bit more likely to be positive surprises, then yeah, focusing on RCP works.
Ak ok Andre….in that case it may not be the best indicator.
Do you have evidence of the Republican bias?
To be clear first up, I don't think there's bias in the sense of deliberately putting a thumb on the scales. There's a lot of room for reasonable minds to differ in constructing turnout models, framing polling questions etc.
But then some pollsters makes decisions outside of what is generally considered good practice, such as Trafalgar Group explicitly operating a shy-Drumpf-voter hypothesis (although I've never seen what that means in actual practical terms), or Rasmussen Reports explicitly weighting by party identification (which changes at voter whim, unlike age, sex, education, ethnicity etc).
RCP includes Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen, but there have been times I've noticed some particularly Dem-positive polls from apparently well-regarded pollsters show up in Five ThirtyEight that haven't showed up in RCP (sorry can't immediately bring to mind which ones).
In general, it appears poll averages from 538, 270 to Win, CNN etc are a little bit Dem-positive compared to RCP. That's not to say RCP is worse and the others are better, it may indeed be that RCP has made a better choice of which pollsters to include in their average.
Among the unknowns then are:
It has the potential to make the supposed, and sometimes invented, irregularities in Latin American elections that gets the USA so outraged, look like amateur hour.
Well, yeah, there is the assumption that bad faith actions won't be much worse than anything previously seen in, oh, the last hundred years or so. Which is looking like a really iffy assumption, so the question is whether a Biden win would be sufficiently clear and conclusive to overcome all the expected fuckery.
Do you know if the EC votes are not equally distributed among the states when it comes to population?
I think I heard this.
Each state gets one Electoral College vote per member of Congress. So low population states like Wyoming or Alaska get 3 EC votes, one for their sole House Representative, and two for their two Senators. (Washington DC also gets 3 EC votes by special provision, even though it doesn't get voting members of Congress). That's one EC vote per 200,000ish population.
At the other end of the population range, Californai gets 55 EC votes for its 40 million population, 53 for its 53 House Reps, and two for its two Senators. Which is around 1 EC vote per 700,000ish population.
There's a good chart if you scroll down the wikipedia article – for some reason embedding the image doesn't seem to work.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College
edit: and the three million American citizens living in Puerto Rico don’t get to vote for prez or be represented in Congress. Cos PR is a territory, not a state
Thanks for that.
Thanks for that info.
"The $750 Man" : )
Judith Collins, who takes malicious delight in attacking others, is upset Jacinda referenced her history with the SFO (poor wee thing). I was delighted to see Jacinda's 'forthright' comment on the news reminding people of this.
Like all bullies, Collins is happy to dish it out though. Perhaps if she can't take the heat in the kitchen she shouldn't be there, to quote Collins' words on Jacinda.
If anyone has dealt with the heat in the kitchen in the last three years, it is our PM – terrorist shootings, a volcanic eruption, months of Covid worries. And becoming a new mum while being PM is no small feat.
It seems it was hard for Collins to get under Jacindas skin on the last debate. It would not be hard to get under Collins skin as seen by her response to Jacindas comment.
I hope Gower asks Collins if she thinks she's a psychopath.
Talking of bullies: read this number from the Herald:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12369031
And this from RNZ Morning report:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018766202
2:15 mins – another vicious attack on Nicky Hager.
8:30 mins – claims Labour has no fiscal plans and don’t intend to put one out. So, what has Robertson and Co. been doing and saying for the past 3 years? Nothing? What about the plethora of policy they’ve been dishing out in recent times? That doesn’t constitute a plan?
She even had the gall to try and infer this government is to blame for the current state of the Auckland Harbour Bridge.
She’s well and truly heading for lala land based on today’s rhetoric thus far.
She kept saying: "That's what Christians believe… I'm a Christian… That's what Christians believe…"
Does anyone else get the impression this desperate woman is fishing desperately for the loons in the Billy T.K. Party to "come on board" her sinking boat?
To put the above in context, Collins is so slippery, it started off with her saying that Nicky Hager was a terrible man and making herself out to be an innocent victim, and then saying that one day he'll meet his Maker.
When questioned on that she went round and round like dirty water down a plughole, saying that everyone will meet their Maker one day, she is sure on that point. Then being questioned as to the reference sounding rather threatening, she just fudged again and made it into a Christian POV that everyone will die and meet their Maker.
I'm uneasy that religion is popping up in the discourse from National. It seems that the Right are finding that references like this reinforce their probity in the minds of dull, unthinking constituents of which there are many.
There is a post now by Micky devoted to this discussion over at – Judith Collins, Nicky Hager and Dirty Politics.
dont think the natz pollsters are earning their $$$ if they think appealing to religios is the way to redemption. a secular country going even more secular is going to turn even further away from the natz towards their one time poodle. for all of acts faults(page not big enough to list) they are NOT religious(only the religion of self interest) with the nats, advance, and new cons all claiming gods on their side, good luck with that..!oops, forgot bishop brian, phuck, god will be busy..
edit
You might think that is the rational way that citizens will behave woodart, that is for you to say. They might regard religion as meaning traditional sects. But don't forget Glorioushome or what it's called. People are being pulled to churches all over the place, if they aren't drowning themselves in beer or drugs, or using sport to control their random thoughts. Every second child is called Elijah or Rebecca or similar.
Natz may be very happy to go to a church with bells and whistles and incense and a huge choir. All the people who can’t manage to achieve their eminence will be put on charity, the government doesn’t want to bother with losers. They will hand out potato peelings for soup and feel satisfied and good to their marrow. That’s how it used to be and once you accept that people are either good or part of the poor that will always be with us, then you can stop trying to force people up beyond their actual capacities that establish them as lower class. This is how some will already be talking – the real estate class who think themselves terribly clever at being able to sell secure assets to people prepared to dispossess most of the world’s population.
The worse things get the more people will be drawn to something. Possibly the Conspiracy Theory party. In the USA they are touting that there will be Trump Goons at the polls etc. Shades of 1930's Germany when people's minds were played with. People aren't happy – alt right, Billy K whatever can fill up empty minds. Take away television for a night and people will be running to the Children of Light or such – Scientology is building a new place here I think.
And that's the second time that you've said that the non-religious are drug and sports addicts without any proof.
yes, around my way, most seem addicted to lawn mowing on sundays.
And why do you need proof? Do you belong to some sort of religious terrorist group which will go and round them all up and kneel for hours on hard boards while they sing rousing songs? Shame on you.
Because otherwise its a fucken lie and you are simply lying.
That is really stupid DTB. You are getting fixated on your opinions and arguments as you have got older. People can know things from their memory and not be able to give details of why and when. People can also know things generally and widely that commonly apply, just not to everybody. And you can just calm down and try and remain rational.
No, they really can't. People's memories simply aren't up to the job:
Unreliable Memory: It Makes Things Up
No, they can't. That would require you to know stuff that you haven't been taught or researched.
I'm perfectly rational in calling you a liar because you're lying. You have absolutely no idea how people spend their time as a result of them not being religious.
DtB, couldn't your strong assertion (above) also be considered a lie? After all, presumably greywarshark has some idea of how some non-religious people spend some of their time. Heck, I know hardly anyone, and yet your statement would still be a lie if I was its target
greywarshark's assertion is on the same level as calling all Māori slackers because some do drugs and don't work on Saturdays.
And, here's a thing, I know plenty of religious people who act exactly as greywarshark says non-religious people act. Get a heap of drugs and watch sport on TV.
OMG, she's even beginning to sound like Muldoon as I remember him on the RNZ interview. Scary!
Judith Collins and the Eyebrows and Kate Hawkesby (could be called The Palomino Pony) on NZ Herald link above.
There's an argument the satsuma shitgibbon really is a genius – at suckering a significant number of people into believing the hype he creates about himself.
Consider, for at least the last three decades, the only ventures that have apparently created positive cash-flow for him are those where someone else has paid him for use of that self-hype. The Apprentice, various licensing deals. Everything else he touched apparently turned to shit, from which he sometimes salvaged a bit by fleecing suckers hoping to cash in on the hype as they disappear down the gurgler – eg his casinos, and now, running the country.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/29/the-new-york-times-confirms-trump-is-a-genius-422837
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/09/why-is-donald-trump-deliberately-losing-money/
He is certainly good at getting plenty of attention and column inches devoted to his every action/inaction.
He has folks wrapped around his little finger.
Whatever we give our attention to gets stronger.
On a related note, Beau here links Hunter Thompson and post election activities.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=abqyq6cs0eo
He is certainly good at getting plenty of attention and column inches devoted to his every action/inaction.
That kinda happens when someone is the leader leader of a big powerful country and devotes himself, well, what little effort isn't spent on serving himself, to actively destroying much of what a majority of that country and indeed the rest of the world holds dear. After he's surrounded himself with enablers that share his destructive goals.
And no, ignoring it won't make it go away or even make it a teeny-tiny bit better. Nor will deluding oneself that his opponents are somehow equivalent.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/427208/regional-pasifika-churches-receive-10m-from-pgf
I hope that the attitude of government after Treaty settlements is not that Maori people generally are not going to be considered much by government, and they should look to their own iwi for support. The Treaty settlements were to recompense, to a small extent, for the land and resources taken from Maori which the NZ state was built on.
So I hope that there is $10 million or more going to Maori initiatives in the region, not necessarily for the built infrastructure, but in training, skills learning. And I would like to see it being family oriented so that older members could join as students if they wished, so all would learn as a cohesive group. Because I think that there is a family way of looking at life planning, and parents are more likely to support their teenagers into skill learning if they themselves have background in post-school education.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018765675/rise-of-nz-mma-reaches-new-high-at-ufc-253
What is MMA? Increasing use of code letters for actual words, prevents effective communication. No explanation in the script.
Mixed Martial Arts?
Aha thanks.
https://thestandard.org.nz/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?_wpnonce=81303fba7a&cid=1754934&pid=3343482
And just a thought – they looked really good, well muscled and fit and better than the body-builders, who carry so much muscle that they might find it difficult to walk without chafing of their legs, and work where their arm muscles rub against their sides.
Yet another reason the US supreme Court badly needs reform because of how unrepresentative it is: after Barrett is rammed through, it will be 2/3 Roman Catholic.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/29/1981656/-A-Curious-Demographic-Fact-About-the-SCOTUS-It-is-Dominated-by-a-Single-Religion
That recalls to mind a Sharon Murdoch cartoon (stuff Sep.25/19) about NZ religion with wise old Yoda saying 'Religious we are not'. 50% of NZ stated No Religion in a survey. The Catholics get and hold their congregations by hook or by crook – of The Good Shepherd I mean.
The irreligious may not fill the gap with any value-based morality, rather spending Sundays at sport, drinking beer, driving 4-wheel drives through mud pugs, up rivers – very physically oriented with no exercise of intellectual or philosophical function. So other details from the NZ study:
20,409 said they were Jedi
4248 were in The Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster
The latest Scrotus nominee is just another shade of Mammonite by the sound of t.
Design or accident? There's a little-known conspiracy theory around this. It has been provided with considerable historical documentation.
My view of the catholic church was always that it was a sick joke discredited by history, until I eventually read my copy of this book: https://www.amazon.com/Rulers-Evil-Useful-Knowledge-Governing/dp/0066210836
The author dug deep & zealously into the background of history, so you encounter a stream of surprising facts unlikely to impress casual readers. Only works for those with a deep grasp of history – if it fits into that context. As someone who has read history in-depth for around 65 years, I was pleasantly surprised at how well-justified his compilation of evidence turned out to be.
Note the amusing verdict of Publisher's Weekly – obviously written by a catholic! Too lazy to read history, uses normalcy as a security blanket due to being at the toddler stage of emotional maturity…
That said, I can always tell when a belief is warping a writer's judgment, and Saussy skates on thin ice at times. But he does seem diligent at dispassionate appraisal.
Winning the presidency for JFK was the culmination of a centuries-old agenda, in which a global power began in new terrain from a position of uncharacteristic powerlessness and extreme adversity. The account of methods used to overturn that historical reality is compelling. The current Supreme Court situation fits the thesis like a glove.
So i am not wasting your time, you are wasting it all on your own, as you could easily have simply scrolled by my comment, which is on topic, without insults to anyone, and not deragotry by any means. But feel free to ban me for not promoting some fancyful ideas of the Green that i find to be half baked.
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
[No Sabine, as a moderator I can’t simply scroll by. If mods did that on every problematic comment, the site would stop functioning.
As well as wasting my time, you’re also now posting bullshit about moderation and my motivations. I want critique of GP policy, because it makes it and democracy stronger. I wish more people would give us useful critique. What you posted was sloppy and misleading. I can’t stop people being sloppy, but there is a bottom line around not misleading. You’re not being modded for your opinions about the Greens’ policy, you’re being modded for posting misleading comments about the policy during an election campaign. Had you backed up your comment, we’d be having a different conversation, but you won’t even do us the respect of that.
You either have a comprehension problem, or you are basically saying fuck you to the site and moderation and thinking you can do what you want.
You have a choice now. Either do what most people do and get on board with the way commenting works here, including moderation, or you can expect to be treated as a special case. If you want to be a special case, my next move will most likely be to ban you until after the election, because I’m not willing to spend my time going over and over this, I’d rather be writing posts.
Banned until Monday – weka].
mod note.
Back link: https://thestandard.org.nz/no-right-turn-the-transport-policy-we-need/#comment-1754911
read, and left you an aswer. cheers.
and i would have preferred to leave my comments so that i can provide back up. I am usually good with links.
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
you were asked to back up this sentence, which is still visible.
"so if you are over 18 or say 18 and a day – money or not – no more free public transport."
You chose not to. Hence the further moderation.
Collins tries to brush off the meet your maker comment by adding a different line to her original threat .
Still trying to put down Nicky Hager for exposing Dirty Politics.
Brilliant piece at The Civilian this morning
“Listen, if I pick up a bag of $1,000 cash in the South Island and I deposit that into a private bank account and wire the money to another private bank account in the North Island, and then someone else withdraws that $1,000 from a relatively unfrequented ATM at 2am in the morning, is that money the same money? How did it magically teleport from island to island? The answer is it didn’t, because it isn’t the same money. It’s separate.”
http://www.thecivilian.co.nz/two-people-in-serious-condition-after-incident-involving-nz-first-bus/
remember to look both ways when crossing bus lanes.
Especially as they seem to be filled with independent buses.
Aaron Maté testifies at UN on OPCW Syria cover-up
Sept. 29, 2020
Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen,
[deleted]
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/09/29/grayzones-aaron-mate-testifies-at-un-on-opcw-syria-cover-up/
[too long Morrissey. If you do your own editing next time it will work out better – weka]
Hmmm, the only info I can find about this comes from Mate. Nothing from anybody with a shred of credibility.
It's apparently an Arria-formula meeting. Any member of the Security Council can call one for whatever reason they feel like. It has zero actual significance within the UN that I can tell. I wonder which Security Council member called it? It would be unkind of me to speculate based on who is "testifying" at it.
Looks to me like it's another bullshit stunt similar to the one Eva Bartlett pulled to generate clickbait misinformation falsely trying to give themselves the credibility of the UN, that gullible convergence moonbats will then amplify and spread.
And you're having a go at Eva Bartlett too, I note. Do you think anyone other than you thinks your "convergence moonbat" concoction has ever impressed anyone other than the sad fellows who spend all day dreaming up orange-themed and gibbon-themed labels to fling at President Drumpf?
Your tactical decision to go all the way with those brilliant strategists of the DNC is leading you into wholesale abuse of journalists. I'm sure that in your more reflective moments, i.e. away from the adrenaline-filled arena of social media squabbling, you realize you are making some foolish and indefensible choices. Heaping abuse on journalists—and Eva Bartlett and Aaron Maté are, like Nicky Hager, renowned for their integrity and independence—is a foolish and indefensible choice if ever there was one.
Still, going all the way with the democracy-hating Democratic Party—the Obama/Biden regime prosecuted, imprisoned and persecuted whistleblowers and journalists even more than the Bush/Cheney regime, and leading Democrats are as bloodthirsty in their rhetoric against Julian Assange as any Repug. is—is a choice you have made. We at this mostly excellent forum have had to put up with the evidence of that almost every day for the last four years.
You got any argument for why this thing from Aaron Mate should be viewed as anything more than an attempted deceptive misinformation stunt?
BTW, that looks to me like quite a smear on Nicky Hager. I'd be curious to hear how Hager himself feels about being being lumped in with Bartlett and Mate.
Sorry about that. I did edit it, but not enough, clearly.
So Aaron Maté does not have a "shred of credibility"? Well, of course you would say that, wouldn't you. You sound just like Mrs Collins denigrating another journalist this morning.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018766202
Okay, you can get back to your MSNBC feed now.
stop flaming, you both were warned yesterday. Next time I'll just ban.
In the Herald this morning :
“Two of the country's biggest companies will use Aotearoa in their names rather than New Zealand.”
Both companies Vodafone and DDB, are branches of big international companies.
DDB is part of DDB Worldwide, an Omnicom company a highly ranked, worldwide advertising agency. Includes company information and philosophy, clients, and global contact information.
If our country is up for renaming then it is for New Zealanders to instigate and decide not for international companies to stick their oar into and stir up discontent in our nation.
Seems that the government agrees with you:
Still, I'm amazed that Māori aren't up in arms about its misuse as, traditionally, it didn't refer to all of NZ:
Good point Janet. I consider that for business New Zealand is a brand name and the official one we want to be known by.
I don't know what is going on in the minds of these large corps but they might be trying some diviseness, perhaps making deals that suit Maori and don't fit in with the official country laws, and playing one off against the other. There will be money in it, it's just playing for advantage to them.
Legal eagles, can we stop this use of Aotearoa as alternative name for New Zealand being done by force majeure?
I don't like this business of using Maori names for everything, it confuses. It should be noted that English is the main business and computer language, and while I think we should be talking te reo frequently I see disadvantages for the country in naming basic agencies and methods in Maori. It is confusing to hear the Transport Authority called something else starting with Ko… What? is the reaction. Then one wonders, is it the same as the TA? Has it changed in the way it performs its role? Can important matters fall through the cracks when a Maori word is inserted in dialogue? Does it mean a number of things and the effect of it is misunderstood?
Think of Oranga Tamariki – what does that convey to most? If it was called the Baby Health and Safety Removal Agency that would result in clarity of purpose, no confusion. But the Maori name implies that culturally appropriate, kind and acceptable methods will be used.
Actually I really like the use of dual names – then we can get to pick the one that suits Mt Taranaki or Mt Egmont. It also cuts off a lot of divisive baiting along the lines of Brash and his Hobson pledge framing and straight out arguments over which name to use. Although I notice over time the european name tends to fall into disuse.
And at some level why were local place names over ridden by the names of dodgy british aristocrats – its a bit urrgh. I mean if they were being named today how keen would anyone be on Boristown or Dodgy Dave Cameron Street?
So I think its good that overseas companies acknowledge this – even if the motivation is commercial.
Our passports use both names and frankly I think they are an absolute work of art. Don't know who thought of it or did it but all credit they are wonderful. I have even had it admired by overseas passport officers.
There was a thought that religion might be raising its head in our politics in a way that isn't positive. I think, with a shiver from looking at Trump's latest conservative Catholic to the Supreme Court, and the doings of some male-dominant states turning women's rights to women's wrongs.
I put up a Wikipedia piece on European wars that had religion firmly mixed in them on Daily Review 29/9. This is a second para to that. I found it fascinating and alarming.
The conflicts began with the minor Knights' Revolt (1522), followed by the larger German Peasants' War (1524–1525) in the Holy Roman Empire. Warfare intensified after the Catholic Church began the Counter-Reformation in 1545 against the growth of Protestantism. The conflicts culminated in the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648), which devastated Germany and killed one-third of its population, a mortality rate twice that of World War I. The Peace of Westphalia (1648) broadly resolved the conflicts by recognising three separate Christian traditions in the Holy Roman Empire: Roman Catholicism, Lutheranism, and Calvinism.
Although many European leaders were "sickened" by the bloodshed by 1648, smaller religious wars continued to be waged in the post-Westphalian period until the 1710s, including the Wars of the Three Kingdoms (1639–1651) on the British Isles, the Savoyard–Waldensian wars (1655–1690), and the Toggenburg War (1712) in the Western Alps.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_wars_of_religion
It is not surprising that the Catholic Church was so involved in all of this history as it generally did all of those services that governments do today from census to education and health and science research and oversaw a lot of legal stoushes as well as diplomacy and defence and pretty much anything else you can think of.
In most places it was the government as rulers were pretty inept.
Mmm well we are still with inept government despite training in Hogwarts academy etc. Religion has learned a thing or two also but tends to be dogmatic more than government, putting pressure on govt from outside. Church government would be hell, it would take just a short time to get there. In the USA it and money and power are interwoven – best to control it and sit the dog outside the door – keep it as part of an ethics committee.
King of Nothing nominates Sleepy Joe for a… (wait for it!!!!)… Peace Prize
When you belong to Tony Blair's party, then you will quite likely have a predilection for war criminals…
https://www.rt.com/usa/501987-biden-nobel-peace-nomination/
If anyone wants to watch the first US Presidential Debate online, it will be live on C-Span's YouTube channel at 2pm NZT.
The Terminally Bewildered versus the Unspeakably Disgusting. As Jacinda Ardern so memorably said about the hastily put together Collins-Brownlee posters: "It doesn't exactly scream Dynamic Duo."
Thank goodness the left chose sleepy Joe.. to take on Trump. Such energy, strength, communication skills, and lack of political baggage!
Anyone watching it here?
My partner was, but she muttered something about "unwatchable", "can't stop talking", and "I wonder what his base makes of this"… and stopped.
By which I gather that Trump is making his usual pillock performance being a ignorant fuckwit full of himself…
Didn't watch any of it. Actually, I doubt I'd have the fortitude to watch it even on pain of getting cattle-prodded if my attention wavered.
But from the commentary, it sounds like it went as everyone expected going into it. The mandarin manutang made a lot of nonsensical contradictory noise unrelated to the actual question in his Asshole-in-Chief routine, and Biden mostly let him do his thing in a low-key way.
Nobody has mentioned anything that even vaguely resembles a debate moment that people will refer in the future – no "there you go again" or anyone looking at their watch, or looking pasty and sweaty with a 5 o'clock shadow. So all-in-all, kind of a pointless waste of everyone's time.
Unless maybe both Biden and Chris Wallace literally telling the orange anusmouth mouth to shut up might get used as a symbol to illustrate just how unrestrained Dolt45 actually was.
Well there was this clanger
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1311132450697945088
No clanger, and fortunately for Biden and non Trump supporters, he got the best jabs in on the night.
Not coming over as king prick and making it clear to the unswayed voters you're okay and worth the benefit of the doubt over your opponent, is the real purpose behind these debates. Getting it through how he is the Democratic party, that any green deal will be his plan, will probably help win a few more votes… Unless they were the kind that were never going to vote for him anyway and just looking for an excuse, like happens on here from the usual suspects, most of the time come every election.
Generally in a debate if you're on the defensive and forced into discussing your opponent's talking points, then its not a great sign… The clip above was fairly typical of the debate, Trump was literally running rings around Biden. "Weekend at Bidens" has literally nothing going for him to attract swing voters, especially in a live performance where his opponent has all the energy.
For the second time tonight, that wasn't the debate I watched, but more importantly, not the one the media or general public saw – Going by the general reaction and collective Trump bashing.
By the way, not seen your Biden's new green deal clanger mentioned, which somewhat sort of hacks away the patellas of your point.
I saw about half of it. Trump has a real skill. He is able to insert a distinct and separate lie into every sentence that he utters.
Just one lie in every sentence? Low energy, he's fading. He's been as high as four lies in one sentence.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/14/politics/fact-check-trump-mccabe-clinton-mcauliffe/index.html
Neo lib has come along like a new religion – belief and promises of a smooth running business heaven are mingled. Neolib doesn't mind if it turns freemen into serfs and at the same time telling them that they are not disregarded objects of charity like those on benefits. So workers getting sacked from their old jobs become contractors, standing tall, alone and proud not like the welfare whiners they think.
But neolib is a business and money-gouging conception. The Press has a sorry tale about the contractors to a small lone builder who has absorbed the More business virus and is erecting legal entities, building, using his subbies as credit providers they claim, not paying them, dismantling the legal entity and starting off again the same, though it is supposed to be against the explicit law. Also the builder quotes Master Builders membership though he has been struck off, and a recommendation by a well-known name. Looks good, smells very bad for the No Regulations Friendly Country. Blah……..
https://www.pressreader.com/new-zealand/the-press/20200929/281479278859135
Debt-ridden builder has new outfit – Sep.29/20
…The Companies Act says a director cannot run what is known as a phoenix company – one trading in the same business using the same or a similar name as their failed one – before or within five years after the liquidation…
May Moncur, an Auckland law employment advocate, believed too many businesses were using liquidation as a way of avoiding their liabilities. They keep the business running by starting up another company, and continue as normal.
‘‘In New Zealand, putting a company into liquidation is so easy and not expensive. There is a loophole in the law.’’
.
A year old Australian story which has a lot of fibre in it!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/debt-ridden-builder-s-anti-semitic-texts-over-pratt-raheen-project-20190331-p519e7.html
Liquidation of a business should result in the owners of that business:
Then we may get rid of these thieves.
Agree draco
There are some rules around owner distributions that can be clawed back but there is a cost to the civil action so it often doesn't get actioned.
But I would expect the IRD in the current climate to oppose the liquidation and strike off of companies that have received any of the wage subsidies or loans to prevent the owners taking the money and then collapsing the entity until they have confirmed that it is all valid. And the IRD should make that public.
On the upside the physical fleeing of jurisdiction is not quite as easy as before.
Yes, a civil action that the workers, who can't afford legal council, have to do and there ends justice.
I think the IRD need to be doing that as a matter of course every time that a liquidation occurs. If they don't then we end up with the above which pretty much is state sanctioned theft.
The civil action can be any creditors but yes waged employees can lose a lot of money in some of these situations as even their preferred status frequently doesn't cover them off.
I have always wondered why the law and unions don't ask for wages to be transferred out of companies at the gross amounts owed. For a really simple example net wages are paid, taxes go to the IRD and then a further amount to cover any holiday pay, long service leave, redundancies etc gets paid off to a "trust account" managed by a third party which could be say the IRD. Then if everything goes to custard the amounts in trust cover the employee entitlements. Businesses would then get a heads up earlier that they are not making money and they would not be relying on the employee based free funding that can be pretty substantial.
I had a quick look and the old company appears to have collected the wage subsidy and it's extension.
The government and its agencies might be being hoist on their own petard. How soon can we undermine this cumbersome inadequate agency that we thought we paid taxes to to keep things going reasonably sweetly? They have reduced regulations, and everything else, but the MPs show signs of being Mr Creosote's family. Give ya a technicolour chunder as Barry McKenzie used to say.
My partner and I are voting in the NZ GE today – Kiwis in Oz are the first in the world to vote, although they said on ABC radio this morning that only 40,000 kiwis out of the 600,000 here are enrolled. The voting process is a bit of a mission. Forms have to be downloaded, then filled in, and then scanned and uploaded back on to the NZ Elections site. I wonder what the percentage of voters would be if everyone had to do that? (there are a few polling stations open in Oz, but nowhere near us)
If it's a PDF ask them if you can edit it directly then send it back. Save having to print it out, scan it and then send it.
No. They have to be printed, then signed in front of a witness! The odd thing is that the witness can be anyone in your family. Remember doing it before in 2017 – from Fiji. The other odd thing is that when you upload the forms your name and ref number is sent with your referendum, electorate and party votes. It doesn't seem very secret.
It's never been secret except possibly in the dark days of the 19th and early 20th century. Need to be able to check off the voter according to the voter registration so as to prevent people voting twice, people voting who shouldn't be etcetera.
On a completely different topic "kindness". I have seen a number of peeps saying something along the lines of "NZ is not being kind" usually when they have been told "no" to something they want which is well outside the rules. Mostly I see this as just complaining when they don't get their own way.
I see "kindness" as something that is "given freely" not some thing that anyone should expect to receive (nice though it is when it happens) and be entitled to complain about if they don't .
But is this just me ??
It's an interpretation thing, Red Baron CV. And it is sometimes misinterpreted.
To clarify things for you from my perspective:
Often, when I don't get my own way I act in a kindly way to myself by both being pissed off about not getting my own way and sometimes expressing to others that I am pissed off also.
They, in turn, then start being kind to themselves by telling me to shut up and to stop complaining.
It’s called the kindness cycle.
Lol
Aha I missed the cycle
It could be that you choose to ameliorate a siuation when you could have been punitive or dismissive.
But people who have been brought up to expect a positive response to everything they want are suffering from the indulgent decades, those reflecting Ayn Rand's The Virtue of Selfishness.
Or: Imagine a world where leaders are able to pass power directly to their children. These children are plucked from their nurseries and sent to beautiful compounds far away from all the other children. They are given the best teachers, the best facilities, the best doctors and the best food. Each day the children are told that the reason they're here is because they are the brightest and most important children in the world.
https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/posh-boys-9781786073839/
good post redbaron. no, its not just you. we live in a "give them an inch, and they want the whole quarter acre" society nowdays. and the media make headlines out of moaners. what was it last week, "quarantine food so horrible they had to eat their own shoes" or some such bullshit. I would say NZ is being exceptionally kind , and having a close friend who is working nights for immigration, talking to, and finding solutions for kiwis, from countries you havent heard of, needing all sorts of things that are well outside the box , has certainly opened my mind.
I did see one food post where it looked like the budget company employed had done a dreadful job. Plus it had supplied coke and lemonade as lunchtime drinks. I'd have been pretty annoyed with that if I had had kids. Sugar highs in hotels rooms. I do suspect the food reflects the underlying grade of the hotel and the prfits they are trying to wrench off the contracts.
Well according to those I follow on Twitter I didn’t miss much on the 2 grumpy old muppets of Bernie and Waldorf from the US Presidential Debate this morning. Thank god & for its various faults that we have the Westminster System in NZ & in Oz unless someone corrects me.
Watched some of it on Al Jazerra. Trump won the interruptions.
Good god that debate was painful
The Kazahkstanis loved it.
https://twitter.com/KazakhstanGovt/status/1311096859142664193
Just referring to Woodart's post and the misreporting he mentioned regarding people in quarantine said to have been eating their shoes.
All I can say is that if they did have to eat their shoes, they don't know how lucky were!
I was imprisoned by WINZ for an extended period of time, and then forced to eat my hat after I had previously told people that I would eat the damn thing if I ever found welfare dependency to be harsher than being gainfully employed or in business.
Well, it was harsher and I have had indigestion ever since.
Which brings me to a linked subject which is Covid-19 handouts.
My view is that if New Zealanders find themselves with their heads above the sour milk and bitter honey welfare dependency mammary gland feed, they should take whatever handouts are available to keep them to get them through, whether employed or in business, whilst the handout money is still flowing. They should take the money with no feelings of guilt whatsoever.
The choice of walking from a failing business or a job with fewer fringe benefits might actually lead to permanent subsistence welfare dependency even after reaching superannuation eligibility age, unless people have a guaranteed accommodation arrangement already in place and already paid for.
Don't walk away to the dole queue unless you have no other choice. In the long run, it just ain't worth it.
Look. Even if you have to bend (not break) government rules and ignore certain societal fostered assertions in relation to start up enterprise or self reliance, if you can do it with a chance of success, then give it a try.
Given that my current financial disposition appears precarious, I may now withdraw from these read and post sessions (as enlightening and entertaining as they have been) and seek to find some way I can use my spare time to an obtain extra, and hopefully a more reliable, income source.
Adios
good post. extra ,more reliable income source, or maybe sauce. pay for view whatever??
You are every complimentary.
Cheers
A poll from East Coast, looks good for Kiri Allan:
http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/local-news/20200930/allan-ahead-in-labour-poll/
(and "commissioned by" doesn't mean "conducted by", e.g. Curia and UMR do polls for National/Labour, but they are still real polls).
The party vote numbers show a big swing, too. The numbers in 2017 were very close to the nationwide total (Nat 44 Lab 36).