Open mike 31/05/2024
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- No going back
When I was fifteen I discovered the joy of a free bar. All you had to do was say Bacardi and Coke, thanks to the guy in the white shirt and bow tie. I watched my cousin, all private school confidence, get the drinks in, and followed his lead. Another, ...21 minutes ago - Beijing finally slices off Sandy Cay
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Whatever happened to ring fencing money saved by reinstating prescription fees to pay for new cancer medicines?
/
During the campaign, National promised $280 million over four years to fund the new cancer medicines. When Burr asked Willis why National didn't stick to that, she said, "We intend to keep that commitment".
"In this Budget, we had to find $1.8 billion to rescue the funding of medicines that were left unfunded by the outgoing government," she said. "Pharmac had been given what we call 'cliff funding' so it had been short-funded. So, as of June 1 this year, it would have run out of… money for listed medicines.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2024/05/budget-2024-finance-minister-nicola-willis-defends-national-u-turn-on-funding-new-cancer-drugs.html
luxon
Huh
Name one
Not responding at all does count as "comprehensive" – it is internally consistent, wide-ranging and final.
Though "terminal" might be a better word than "final".
Trump guilty all counts!!!!
Looking forward to the sentencing report and the sentence itself.
MSNBC News – Breaking News and News Today | Latest News
At least one guardrail of civic order has worked.
How many of his supporters will revolt?
Does this preclude him standing for president?
No he can still stand as a convicted felon!!!
Chance of it tearing the Republican party apart? Cant see the old school moderates going along with having a convicted felon as their nominee.
It will be interesting.
There are no old school moderates in the party now. Every statement on the verdict by every relevant Republican has trashed the case, the judge, the entire process. Nobody – absolutely nobody – is saying "respect the verdict".
The few who dared to criticise Trump over the years have gone or are going. It is one man's party, and it lives on another planet.
They couldn't care less about him being a felon. It's a martyr's flag for them.
He is claiming to be a "political prisoner". I imagine many "old school moderates" will believe him.
Hopefully it's Home Detention with an ankle bracelet.
That respects a punishment that reflects the scale of the crime.
That would also be realistic given he really does have a right to free speech as a candidate able to campaign virtually, and jail is pretty impractical for his scale of security that he needs.
The US would not withstand Trump in jail; I think there really would be civil war.
And set the precedent that just because you're a former (and possible future) President, a political candidate, or a rabble rouser with a violent mob at your disposal that you're somehow above the law or get to be treated with kid gloves?
Much like how in New Zealand, we seem to protect the privacy and future prospects of sportspeople and businessmen (mainly of the pakeha variety) who commit sometimes violent and heinous crimes, but happily consign the unforgivably brown or poor to prison for minor offences.
How can the rule of law withstand giving the rich and the powerful access to special treatment while being so manifestly unjust to everyone else?
Not it's proportionate to the crime.
Which is basically admin for a very small amount, lying, and covering it up.
I mean sure it would be great if Trump just burned in hell, but with no constitutional bar to his candidacy, Home D is Guilty, Punished, Served.
And set the precedent that just because you're a former (and possible future) President, a political candidate, or a rabble rouser with a violent mob at your disposal that you're somehow above the law or get to be treated with kid gloves?
A president can be impeached for behaviour which probably has nothing to do with his performance as president, as evidenced by Bill Clinton's close call with the Monica Lewinsky affair.
In practice impeachment has proven to be functionally impossible, even when the President in question flat out commits treason.
Most of the US constitutional guardrails were designed in an era before hyperpartisanship and political tribalism, and where the Senate was conceived as a cooler, calmer, more deliberative body.
In this day and age, unless the Democracts somehow manage to win a 3/4 majority in the Senate (which is pretty farfetched) there will be precisely ZERO constitutional checks on a future Trump presidency.
Of course Trump has already been impeached, and in electoral consequences it means nothing today. No bar to the Republicans choosing him again as a candidate, or voters choosing him in Nov.
Second impeachment of Donald Trump – Wikipedia
Impeachment has gone from being seen as a shocking, historic, career-ending move to just another "meh".
This explainer from the Guardian seems to agree:
The Guardian piece is also useful on the likely Appeal process. First to the New York Court of Appeals, and if this Court, upholds the conviction, then to the US supreme Court. But "getting it into the US supreme court would require Trump to convince the justices that there is some federal or constitutional question at stake". I doubt that the current Supreme Court Justices would take much convincing on that point.
In any case, the delay caused by an appeal goes well past the November election.
Yes, that's the key point. It's wishful thinking to hope/expect that he now won't be able to run and become President. He can, regardless.
The only barrier is the voters in swing states, and their election officials.
Ankle bracelet followed by a win followed by a Presidential pardon. And trials for Judges and Prosecutors etc. Rule of Law? Nah.
Given that he's already announced an appeal – any imposed penalty will be suspended until the appeal is heard.
"Fake news"
Meanwhile, m'lady Willis has acknowledged "not everyone will get HUUUGE amounts of money out of the tax relief" [RNZ 9 am news @2 minutes] – I wonder what Willis feels constitutes "huge amounts of money", and just how many Kiwis are in line to benefit hugely from “the tax relief” – not ‘tax cuts’, mind you, but ‘relief’.
On superannuation alone couple gets
$8.62 a fortnight
WOW
Don't spend it all at once 😀
It's not even a half a block of cheese tax cut.
I have told my cats there will be an extra tin of cat food with my $2.15 from Mrs Willis. They are very pleased.
About 29 cents of that $2.15 will go back to the Govt. with the GST component on the purchase …. so Mrs Willis will be please too!
…. so really only getting $1.86 in "tax relief"
.. and that is not counting the tax on the profit made by the Supermarket …
Janice, I hope you feel relieved to see your cats relieved from hunger by your relief from taxes. A note of thanks to Ms Willis (the EngLit graduate) could even quote the bard:
"For this relief much thanks. 'Tis bitter cold, and I am sick at heart"
What Labour should be doing.
Instead they sent out an email asking to send some tax cuts to fund their campaign.
No, no, no! Go get Malcom Tucker because ^*€>*€*$€%#++£•€’
They need catchy simple messaging and any that has been has been undercut.
Any commenter here has it:
‘The don’t spend it all at once’ budget
‘The home brand cat food’ budget
These are easy headlines. Easy to understand analysis. An uncomplicated position. The tax cuts don’t cover the cost rises. Labour, Labour, Labour…
Instead they sent out an email asking to send some tax cuts to fund their campaign.
Fucking losers. I've never heard anything so stupid since their year of consultation followed by their year of policy bullshit.
Not the brightest, and when challenged on it I bet they don't spin it round by pointing out the need donations because the aren't bought and paid for by big business like the government
Can't wait to see him in his orange teletubby suit.Shame he won't be sharing a cell with Michael Cohen.
Based on the continual slimming of Trump during his trial he's on the anti-fat jab. Makes him look older, for sure, as wrinkles emerge.
This step is long overdue. She won't be the only one in the dock, hopefully.
The first of many more hopefully. Leaders of every country supplying arms to Israel need to be referred to the ICC. Especially Sunak, Macron, Scholz, Biden and Blinken.
It doesn't stop Trump running but quite a few states have laws that will keep a convicted felon off the ballot. Ironic to think Jim Crow will keep Trump off the ballot in Florida!!
How quickly do you think those states will fall over themselves to change the law and allow him to both stand, and vote?
Trump will be on the ballot in every state. His Supreme Court has already ensured this.
Technically, no.
The challenge that went to Supreme Court was premised on several state's attempts to argue that Trump had committed treason and was therefore constitutionally ineligible to be president.
This is different to the current problem triggered by his conviction: He may fall afoul of any state laws that may bar a convicted felon from running for office.
This case may be a little more difficult for Trump and his team to wriggle out of.
I haven't seen any legal opinion to suggest that might happen though. Happy to be persuaded but the consensus of informed commentators is that there is no way he'll be kept off the ballot, given the appeal process.
The Supreme Court were pretty clear on what a State can do vs what only Congress is allowed to do.
'"We conclude that states may disqualify persons holding or attempting to hold state office," the court's opinion says. "But states have no power under the Constitution to enforce Sections 3 with respect to federal offices, especially the presidency."
It was a unanimous ruling and I don't see that they would have any difficulty at all ruling the same way on the Presidential election.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68280062
You're right – that does seem pretty conclusive
Any State laws about barring a convicted felon for running for office, would only apply to elections within a State – not to Federal elections.
There has even been a US presidential candidate running for office from within a federal prison (Eugene Debs, 1920).
It's unlikely that Trump would be sentenced to actual jail time (only 1 in 10 similar cases are, in the US). And, even if he was, he'll certainly file an appeal, so won't be in prison for the election campaign.
So now that it's fully in the open that Biden has given permission for essentially missile strikes inside Russia using US weapons, it's very hard to stop Putin striking inside Poland or Moldova.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/30/politics/biden-ukraine-limited-strikes-russia/index.html
Not saying it's wrong or right – who the hell am I to armchair morality from this side of the world.
But very hard to see this turning back from escalation.
And very dark for the whole world.
The war needs a decisive intervention the bring the war to a quick conclusion (the best way to reduce loss of life) with the total defeat of Putin – Just as Churchill immediately recognised the need to get the United States into WW2 to defeat Hitler, so Zhelensky needs to get the NATO powers involved to defeat Russia.
Poland has been rearming frantically with 202526 clearly in mind as the date to join the war, while the French are inching towards offering absolute territorial guarantees to Ukraine. The Poles will soon have the best equipped army in Europe, and the Russians would find the French in particular to have an excellent air force.
You're absolutely in la la land. Any approach to what you advocate involves nuclear weapons. I see you invoke Nazis. The closest aproximation to Nazis at the moment is Israel and its US enablers in Gaza. We have the truly macabre situation at the moment of the US speaker of the house demanding sanctions against the ICC because they don't fit the colonial genocidal ambitions of the self appointed world ruler,with the enthusiastic support of Blinken. The medical director of Glia, Tarek Loubani, has stated that he never feared death for himself or his colleagues when working in Ukraine on the Ukraine side but is absolutely always worried in Israel and has lost many colleagues and ambulances in Gaza both killed while working, and abducted to the torture centres in Israel, where amongst other things, they are used as live practice for medical interns doing operations that they have never before done – without anaesthetics!! What was the name of that Nazi doctor again?
" …. abducted to the torture centres in Israel, where amongst other things, they are used as live practice for medical interns doing operations that they have never before done – without anaesthetics!! "
That's pretty strong stuff, Sub. Got to be an unimpeachable link before I give it any credence.
Medical experimentation:
This was taken from whistleblower interviews with CNN. The link is in the referenced article if you wish to go there to check
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/tamara-nassar/inside-one-israeli-death-and-torture-camp
In early April a whistle-blower reported appalling treatment and conditions at Sde Teiman.
A doctor at the field hospital set up at the Sde Teiman detention center to hold arrested Gazans described conditions that he said could compromise the inmates' health and put the government at risk of violating the law, in a letter sent last week to Israel's defense minister, health minister, and attorney general.
"Just this week, two prisoners had their legs amputated due to handcuff injuries, which unfortunately is a routine event," the physician said in the letter. He said inmates are fed through straws, defecate in diapers, and are held constant restraints, which violate medical ethics and the law.
https://archive.li/CMqSm (haaretz)
Thank you, gentlemen. That does seem to confirm it. Hard to imagine even ol' Joe continuing to hold out against those sort of revelations, but there appears to be no limit to some people's intransigence.
And just to add to that, Putin has already stated that the targeting of these weapons requires satellites and personnel from NATO countries. Even when the targeting is loaded by a Ukrainian, it is decided upon and created by NATO personnel. It is unlikely that Russia will take these kinds of hits without responding to the country supplying the targeting. With Storm Shadow missiles, I believe that would be the UK or Germany.
Escalation against a NATO country is being invited.
Only a fool makes the same mistake twice is the message.
And given its been limited to the Kharkiv front, all Putin has to do is withdraw forces from that area, learn the wisdom of restraint.
You are the fool if you believe that NATO will settle for anything less than complete subjugation. Somehow, after the Yeltsin years, Russia escaped this fate. They will not return to it. Perhaps then, its time to talk. And remember that its always the west that has some reason why talk is not possible. Which of course, will be your immediate response to what I have written.
The West and those (others) of it being so predictable, to those who know better … .
NATO merely wants a return to the internationally agreed borders.
Ukraine and its allies are planning to talk in Geneva. Probably about feasibility of such an objective.
An attack on Poland would require Russia to fight for Kaliningrad, that would involve Lithuania (+), Finland, Sweden and Germany.
Any professional left in the military would tell Putin they would lose – too committed in Ukraine.
So what we’re saying is that Biden’s green light enables Ukraine to attack Russia. Thus Putin retaliates against Poland, or Estonia etc. Then the ball is in NATOs court.
I was responding to Ad's expectation of an attack on Poland as a response.
As Biden's move only applies to Ukraine use of the weapons to attack a Russian build up in the area around Kharkov, I tend to doubt it as Russia is not able to manage a front with Poland while engaged in Ukraine.
All true. But Putin doesn’t always respond logically.
Obvs lots going on today, but I’ve been following the obscure deets of the Green Parties in the UK and their ongoing expulsions and implosions over the Cass review, wondering if there will be a NZ edition.
https://archive.ph/bsANK
I don't think so, but agree it is something to keep an eye on. The Scottish Greens and the England/Wales Greens are batshit crazy. I think EWG have some good people, but they've dealt with the gender/sex issues badly. Scottish Green leaders just seem bonkers to me.
Otoh, they SG do seem to be in the process of deselecting the TIM candidate who had tweeted "takes three mouths to take in my cock", and "JK Rowling is a man larping as a woman. Pass it on!! Let's shame the torn faced cow."
Interestingly the branch asked for this to happen. This is the advantage of being a GP member, and NZ GC progressives who otherwise support the GP policies should take note.
https://archive.is/rQcV4
https://x.com/cunning_chops/status/1793721271823528132
Not very bright, that one.
My concern is with NZG losing Shaw, and the shift to a more activist led party, that it could go down the crazy path. This would be very bad for NZ. I hope that their presence in parliament and the pragmatics of the electorate is enough to keep them from doing that. Last year's dealing with Kerekere and not forefronting queer politics during the election campaign were good signs.
I think it may well go the same way, at about the time that Dame Sue Bagshaw officially dismisses the Cass review as something something transphobia. Perhaps she'll surprise me and accept it. At which point political parties will have to comment. Right now it's at the "it's being reviewed so I can't comment" stage so nobody is saying anything. What will the GP say? Probably something along the lines of "Sue Bagshaw sez it's all OK, the Cass report isn't relevant to NZ because NZ children are a different species to UK children, nothing to see here, all good amirite?"
At which point I'll officially give up.
I hope you're right, but I see no indication that the GP is ready to come back to reality or even discuss the issues, haven't seen any discussion on this issue at all.
Now I've checked out Bagwash and what she's been saying of late, it would seem there is indeed reason to be worried. It's not often I stand on the same side as "Bishop" Tamaki, but he's right on this issue.
what we really need is the GC progressives to have more voice and presence, then you can stand with us instead of Tamaki.
I don't think the MPs and office holders generally are ready to come back, but No Debate means that we probably can't know about the ones that dissent. I remain convinced that most GP members would support the excesses of GII once they know what it means.
Change happens by increments and then possibly a bigger shift. Preventing a numpty candidate from standing is significant.
Sorry, Weka, I can't figure out what you're trying to say here. As posted, it seems to suggest that "most GP members" would support the sort of craziness that the EWGP has been captured by.
sorry, typo. That should say wouldn't support. I'll see if I can dig up some figures. The problem is that when GP members tried to address women's sex based rights, they were shut down and shut out.
Livestream of hui Taumata today.
https://app.sli.do/event/h1mGU3vULLTAFRJjhz4N9F/live/polls
Much, much more interesting and joyful and exciting than John Key's manfest some years back.
what's the hui about?
https://www.huitaumata.co.nz/
cheers. Have just been reading this,
"Towards a Māori Nation"
https://www.huitaumata.co.nz/_files/ugd/a0663d_d18fefd36192409a839d98eeb10b4171.pdf
Looks very interesting.
TPM may well want a Maori parliament, but they might want to reflect on the number of successful postcolonial states.
There aren't that many successful postcolonial states, but the big ones had very strong immigrant presences including: Canada, United States, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and maybe Brazil and Mexico.
No examples in Africa, few in South America. All went down hill fast.
The path to having a successful postcolonial transition is narrow and fraught. None of it happens at speed, and the fastest way to failure is a smashing of public institutions, and making really poor replicas of systems that worked. On that, Apirana Ngata and Winston Peters are right.
South Africa is another example of an unsuccessful transition.
Despite the huge volume of natural resources, virtually guaranteeing a healthy trade balance – the kleptocracy of rule has resulted in the general population being far worse off.
https://www.corruptionwatch.org.za/stemming-the-tide-of-kleptocracy-bold-solutions-alone-not-enough/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_South_Africa
You ignore India and the "19th Century China economic zone". Little immigration though. And both survived earlier/other colonial invaders.
I do not see South Korea as a nation that has institutions as a legacy of being a "colony" and it is not a nation with many migrants.
Malaysia again an indigenous majority, has more Chinese and Indian presence than colonial British.
Thus you are left with UK's 5 Eyes partners and Singapore (was an earlier Moslem and Indian trade centre before being destroyed and revived by the British).
Otherwise Mexico of Spain (is it the oil and NAFTA) and Brazil of Portugal (is it the size of the economy).
I don't think that you could describe the 19th century Chinese Economic zones as colonial states. The one which certainly was, in that area, was Hong Kong (highly successful as a crown colony).
It's difficult to argue that it ever had a post-colonial identity, however, since it was subsumed into PRC in 1997 – and has been systematically suppressed thereafter.
Do you have a view on why virtually every African state has become worse off (in whichever measure you choose to use) following independence?
Labour spokesperson
So it requires a long term approach.
So the landlord lifestyle and magazine family values does not trickle down to any wider society ambition from the PM.
They switched support for those disabled during school time to Education (no funding provided). They are looking at moving food in schools away from education. It is how they operate.
https://archive.li/jZAu4#selection-1995.60-1999.48
The response on Kiwiblog today is instructive.
We can however expect their approach to reducing the numbers on health care and state house waiting lists to be adopted to reducing the number of recorded family violence incidents
I find Waititi's views on how his Maori Nation is going to work a little hard to follow. He claims
"I am 20 per cent of this country. I expect nothing less than 20 per cent of the total Budget in this country. That’s what I expect in a kāwanatanga [governance] space.”
Waititi then said Māori should receive the Budget proportion that their population makes up in prisons and Oranga Tamariki."
Is he also going to propose that Maori will pay 20% of all income taxes? Will he argue that Maori will only accept 20% of all benefit payments?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/te-pati-maori-protests-new-parliament-mooted-declaration-of-independence-issued/GSOV3QHFX5EQ3NS6SYFIOCMO74/
Heard of strike action to obtain a result?
Remember when National (Brash) threatened to end the Maori seats and then Key included TPM as a support partner alongside ACT and United … and signed UNDRIP?
Note how UNDRIP co-governance was posed as a threat and thus the CofC, well here we are (note JA rejected a separate Maori Parliament upper house).
Is he also going to propose that Maori will pay 20% of all income taxes? Will he argue that Maori will only accept 20% of all benefit payments?
You need to include NZS if you are going to go down that road. As Maori have a younger population then it is more likely they will get a benefit than NZS (even putting life expectancy aside). I am pretty sure that 20% of the total cost would be an increase.
In terms of ethnicity, 62.4% are NZ European, only 5.9% are Māori and 2.6% are Pacific Peoples. 16.5% are other ethnicities and 12.5% were unspecified.
He is actually claiming that 20% of the population are Maori. He doesn't believe your quoted figure of 5.9%. God knows, but isn't telling, where the man gets his numbers from.
That is the percentage of Maori on NZS.
What is NZS?
Really after a quote about benefits you can't work out what NZS is?
Yesterday's census results where 20% identify as Maori
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/census-2023-results-new-zealands-population-growing-diversifying-and-ageing/SANRG5UMGFDP7C4I3XRUSCBHKQ/
Maybe ince waititi is getting 20% of the vote he could argue that but most Maori don't seem to vote tpm
Crown recognition of a Maori parliament could not occur until 50% (or more – as per constitutional changes mandate) of Maori agreed.
So a couple of weeks ago the government made stern pronouncements about kids missing too much school when most of the missing time was excused absences due to sickness. Now my teacher friend has covid because the kids are coming to school sick with it and other schools are being hard hit with kids and teachers sick, …and it's not even term 3 yet.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/wellbeing/350292066/children-being-hospitalised-nasty-rsv-schools-hit-winter-looms
This will screw up the governments statistics on absences when whole classes get rostered home – way to shoot themselves in the foot.
Evidence that schools are allowing children who are sick with Covid to attend?
From your linked article (first sentence)
I know that the family secondary school will not accept attendance from kids who are visibly unwell (they get sequestered in the sickbay and you get a call to come and collect them); and the message is still being strongly pushed by newsletters, etc. that if your child has a respiratory infection, then they need to stay home.
Of course, your teacher friend may have caught Covid from a kid with no visible symptoms … or from someone at the supermarket s/he visited on the weekend.. or even from a friend/family member. [We have two staff down with Covid at work ATM, neither have school children, or any contact with school children]
Do you think there should be mandatory daily testing of school children for asymptomatic Covid every morning before school?
Just "mandate" trippple jabs for them to attend at all? RSV/Flu/Covid 19
Won't stop spread or stop them contracting but will "reduce the severity" !!!
After all – “Safe and Effective”
A text book case in vulture capitalism.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/518324/new-zealand-rugby-players-association-to-forge-ahead-with-separate-body
Zuma's revenge.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjll8nr6962o