Oram on the budget and Treasury fantasies

Written By: - Date published: 7:09 am, May 25th, 2015 - 75 comments
Categories: budget 2015, debt / deficit, economy, national - Tags: , , ,

Extracts from Rod Oram’s piece in the SST as posted on Facebook:

No worries, it’ll all come right, the Budget assures us

Everything economic will come right by 2017, the government assures us in its latest budget. Businesses will enjoy higher commodity prices, moderate wage inflation, modest interest rates and a manageable dollar. Citizens will thrive on more jobs, low inflation, more spending and only moderate increases in house prices. And the government will benefit from higher tax revenues, enabling it to double new spending, increase its budget surpluses and cut taxes – just in time for the 2017 election.

This sunny view is based on Treasury’s economic forecasts accompanying the budget. Treasury believes serious shocks to the global and local economies over the past decade, and particularly over the past year, will fade quickly away. Dairy and oil prices will rise, inflation will resume and economies will motor on, whether in stagnant developed or slowing developing countries.

But what if the world is experiencing profound shifts? What if, for example, deflation is driven by structural causes such as ageing populations and rapid technological change?

This air of unworldly calm also pervades the budget itself, which the government has entitled “A plan that’s working”. Sure enough, there is a bit more money for health, education, police, corrections and other core services. But our population and inflation will both rise by 1.4 per cent in the year ahead, Treasury forecasts. So, the extra spending announced for core public services won’t cover rising costs and demand. So there’s no chance for real wage increases for teachers, nurses, doctors and other public servants.

So this budget, as the six before it, is a triumph of micro-management. The government has mastered the skill of switching small sums around to give the illusion of progress. What’s missing from it, and the six before, is any glimpse of the world we live in, let alone the political leadership we need to survive and thrive in it.

Nailed it.

75 comments on “Oram on the budget and Treasury fantasies ”

  1. Peter 1

    ….. I for one would like to see Mr Key give us his views on, say , a strategy for NZ ports …… addressing the short term concerns of focus groups appears to be his main focus

  2. Charles 2

    In the old days every “man woman and child” worried about the national (small n) deficit, children were given milk to drink at school, voters generally disliked the government, tariffs and tax were heavy, and you could live on a pension without fear of dying of hypothermia or resorting to catfood. No one knew what a dumpster might be. Electricity, water, and telephone services were owned by the government, there were trains carrying manufacturing materials. Trust in the police was high and essential services had professional shift staff, their officiers not much concerned for the cost of saving property and lives. Unemployment was non-existent, and pakeha liked to complain about “the maoris”. Banks opened special childrens accounts, accepted deposit for 1c or 2c and encouraged children to save. They didn’t advertise on black and white TV.

    Now children have fallen into poverty conditions, no one much cares about the National (capital N) deficit unless it’s implied they might have to contribute, it’s not fair and too expensive to supply children with food at school, voters love the government and it’s cult leaders, tarrifs and taxes are light, and you might not be able to live on a pension without resorting to dumpster diving. Electricity, water, and telephone services are privately owned and the train tracks got pulled up, so raw materials go by road on trucks. Trust in police is non-existent – unless you’re white, male and rich, or know someone who is – the officiers of essential services are concerned with profit and safety systems need volunteers and charity to keep running. When someone is lost at sea or in the bush, they’re blamed for the rest of us having to go look for them. Unemployment is high, and pakeha like to complain about “the maoris” – just before leaving for Australia. If you can find a bank teller in your town it’ll cost you. There aren’t 1c or 2c pieces anymore, but plenty of cheap debt, and banks advertise on colour TV that they “live in your world”.

    Can’t wait for 2017. Can’t wait for budget number seven.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.1

      In the old days every “man woman and child” worried about the national (small n) deficit, children were given milk to drink at school, voters generally disliked the government, tariffs and tax were heavy, and you could live on a pension without fear of dying of hypothermia or resorting to catfood.

      Which particular ‘old days’ are you talking about? It wasn’t until Muldoon brought in NZSuper in 1975 that the Old Age Pension was a liveable amount. Before then it was somewhat less.

      • Tracey 2.1.1

        Can you recall what the widow’s pension was?

        • joe90 2.1.1.1

          In 1970 the weekly widows rate was $13.75 with $10 for one dependent child, $11 for two dependent children and $1 for each additional dependent child.

          under SUMMARY OF RATES OF SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS

          http://www3.stats.govt.nz/New_Zealand_Official_Yearbooks/1970/NZOYB_1970.html#idsect1_1_52751

          • Tracey 2.1.1.1.1

            Thanks Joe.

            A widow received the same amount as an unmarried superannunant…

            Key referred to his mum during his budget speech but left out how she was on the same as an over 65

            More when you factor in the children.

            WHY don’t Labour or the press know this stuff?

            • Tracey 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Invalids’—
              Unmarried person, 20 years or over 715 13.75
              Unmarried person under 20 years 611 11.75
              Married man with wife included 1,300 25.00
              Married woman 650 12.50

              We did have full employment in those days…

              • John

                Tracy says “We did have full employment in those days…”

                In 1970 we had a population of 2,811,000 and 1,215,000 people employed (43% employed).

                In 1970 we have a population of 4,500,000 and 2,355,000 people employed (52% employed).

                So in those days we had an extra 9% of the population (9% of todays population is 405,000 people ) who were not working.

                They just didn’t appear in the figures.

                • weka

                  There’s a difference between not-employed and unemployed. The 1970s stats would need to be broken down by gender and probably class to understand them.

                  Full employment = all people who need/want a job having one.

                  • John

                    That certainly wasn’t the case in 1970.

                    Solo mothers with babies didn’t even get a the DPB.

                    Then there were unofficial work for the dole schemes where if you showed you were capable of leaning on a shovel you could get a job with the falsely named “Ministry of Works”.

                    • Colonial Rawshark

                      That Ministry helped build this nation, you ungrateful shit head

                    • weka

                      “That certainly wasn’t the case in 1970.”

                      What wasn’t the case in 1970? Are you saying there weren’t enough jobs to go around?

                    • John

                      Let’s go back to your rose tinted 1970 employment levels.

                      If we did, today we’d have and extra 400,000 people out of work.

                      Duh.

                    • weka

                      You’re not making sense John. Is there a reason you can’t answer my question?

                    • joe90

                      Solo mothers with babies didn’t even get a the DPB

                      You’re right, in 1970 it was a family maintenance allowance.
                      /

                      A sole parent is paid at the rate of $10.00 a week for the first dependent child, increased by $1 a week for each additional dependent child.

                      http://www3.stats.govt.nz/New_Zealand_Official_Yearbooks/1970/NZOYB_1970.html

                    • tracey

                      John

                      stick to your knitting.

                    • tracey

                      “Solo mothers with babies didn’t even get a the DPB.”

                      Unless the father had died and then they got a widow’s allowance

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      Then there were unofficial work for the dole schemes…

                      LOL

                      You really are an idiot. Those works built our entire nation and if we’d left it to the capitalists we’d still be living in the 19th century.

                      Phones and power would only go to rich neighbourhoods and cost several times more. Poverty would be rampant with the middle class taking up maybe 10% of the population.

                      This is what capitalism does. Poverty and deprivation are systemic to it.

                    • John

                      In 1970 only 31,000 working age adults were on benefits.

                      Yet there were around 800,000 working age adults who were not working – two thirds as many as those who did have jobs.

                      And it was called full employment – yeah right.

                    • Rodel

                      “Leaning on a shovel”?
                      This kind of comment is usually made by someone who has never had a manual job in their life. Probably coasting on Daddy’s money.
                      Guarantee those who criticize road workers have never worked on road works…never had to.

                    • Ha! Reminded me of the local bodies candidate a couple of elections ago who put out a leaflet saying he was going to sort out all the council staff he saw leaning on their shovels every day all over the town. He looked a total prat when it was pointed out that the council hadn’t employed labourers for twenty years.

                    • John

                      Rodel – making grand assumptions when you are totally ignorant about a situation, does just one thing – displays how totally ignorant you are.

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      I was working a while back installing the new computers in the new ASB tower at the Viaduct. At the end of the day we’d all gathered at a single location with one person doing the finishing work for the day and the project manager observed, jokingly, that it was just like public works where only one person worked.

                      Thing is, that’s actually what happened and still happens. At the beginning of a day and at the end there may only be enough work for one or two people to do and the others are waiting on them to finish that before they can start their work. And this is what people saw on their way to and from work. They only saw the beginning and end of the day and nothing in between and so assumed that was all that happened with, of course, the help of the lies that the RWNJs spread.

                      Lies that you, John , in your ignorance, still believe.

                • tracey

                  You don’t seem to understand the figures and labels you are relying upon.

                • Wynston

                  Given that it was not common for married mothers to work then, it is not at all surprising that raw figures like you use do not tally!

              • dukeofurl

                Yes full employment, in every sense of the word, and not just Auckland was bi partisan government policy.
                People like Michael Lhaws parents could easily find jobs in Whanganui, and he didnt face high student loans on graduation.
                Not that he has ever see the advantages he got!
                House prices didnt rise too rapidly as the banks werent allowed to borrow overseas and rationed loans based on your lending history and a considerable deposit.

          • weka 2.1.1.1.2

            great link joe, thanks. I was looking for historical benefit rates the other day and couldn’t find them.

      • Grant 2.1.2

        I can’t speak to the amounts involved, but both sets of my very working class grandparents retired in the very early 1960’s at age 60, both lots owning their own homes outright and running reasonably good cars for the times. This despite the fact that they had plenty to say about how hard it was to survive the depression and war years. As I recall they lived simple restrained lifestyles but were short of nothing and always looked to be leading good lives. It wasn’t until their later old age in the late 70’s- early 80’s that inflation etc made them really start to feel the pinch and you could see things going down hill. Of course some of that may also have been a reduced ability to manage as they got towards the end of their lives.

      • Rjay 2.1.3

        It would have been those old days when women had to stay home and not allowed to work and there was no dpb.

    • SMILIN 2.2

      Nz political climatology explained should be the founding article going with the new flag least we forget
      Well said thanks

  3. Ad 3

    To me this has been the most perplexing thing about the response from the collective Opposition.

    They failed to portray any sense of looming crisis. Little’s throwaway line about “…more to New Zealand than milk and housing” was really the missed theme.
    By that I mean that Little went to business audiences, when I would have preferred him to preach to haybarns full of disillusioned and indebted farmers, or suburban halls full of the permanently renting. He needed to land on where the hurt is, and show it.

    I want to hear an alternative economic vision from Labour. It was great to hear Little give a few thoughts – and I appreciate they have to be a little sketchy at this time.
    But overall the opposition can surely see that Key is choking their remaining oxygen.

    Oram shows that there is still plenty of space to do this. Could someone from Labour give him a call?

  4. whateva next? 4

    Thankyou to Rod Oram for not letting reality slip by, under these master illusionists. My worry is that the majority of people and professionals I work alongside everyday seem to be enjoying John Key’s show, despite all the warnings and a few good men keeping their heads above the parapet.
    I wonder if Campbell had to go as those “sleepyheads” were actually hearing/responding to him.

  5. Steve Withers 5

    National, as a conservative party, is psychologically incapable of delivering what Oram wants it to deliver.

    National drives boldly into the future based on a mixture of discredited neo-liberal economic presumptions and an idealised view of past successes.

    Never mind the world doesn’t work the way they hope…and never worked as they imagine it.

    • Clean_power 5.1

      “Never mind the world doesn’t work the way they hope…and never worked as they imagine it” …. I’m sure you know what you are talking about, Mr Whiters.

    • Draco T Bastard 5.2

      National drives boldly into the future based on a mixture of discredited neo-liberal economic presumptions and an idealised view of past successes.

      National still believes in the aristocracy and are putting in place policies that will resurrect them and will turn the rest of us into serfs.

      • Clean_power 5.2.1

        “National still believes in the aristocracy and are putting in place policies that will resurrect them and will turn the rest of us into serfs.”

        Wow. Draco’s fantasies are even more unbelievable than Oram’s.

        • Draco T Bastard 5.2.1.1

          It’s not a fantasy – it’s what’s actually happening. That’s what privatisation is.

          • Clean_power 5.2.1.1.1

            Are you proposing the joy of socialism for NZ? Are you proposing we embrace such wonderful and successful system?

            • Stuart Munro 5.2.1.1.1.1

              We need only reverse the horrific and unsuccessful economic reforms that allowed a generation of unqualified ‘managers’ to enrich themselves at the public expense. NZ ran on Fabian socialism and was the envy of the world – now our young people travel – not for an OE, but to escape our shrinking economy and declining living standards.

            • Draco T Bastard 5.2.1.1.1.2

              Capitalism has presided over a decline in living standards in NZ over the last 30 years.

              In fact, when we look at our history it has been socialism pushing capitalism in the right direction that has built up the living standards that we have. In the 1970s that system was failing, no doubt about that, but we went in the wrong direction. Instead of focusing more on developing our economy and becoming more egalitarian we did the opposite by enriching the already rich and dismantling our economy.

              This resulted in the inevitable declining living standards that we have today and the increasing corruption that we see in our business people and politicians.

              • Clean_power

                You should tell that not-so-white lie to many Russians and Eastern Europeans, free now from the tyranny of communism and socialism. Wake up and smell the roses.

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  Which lie? Living standards have most certainly declined over the last thirty years. In New Zealand, you know, that place that everyone except you is happy to discuss.

                  Just as everyone knows that the reason you’d rather talk shit about Eastern Europe instead is that you’re ideologically handicapped.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  The USSR was neither socialist nor communist the same way that, despite it’s name, the DPRK isn’t democratic.

                  A label doesn’t mean that the thing so labelled is what it says it is. You have to look to the actions and the actions of the USSR, China and the DPRK are capitalist. A few people at the top calling the shots and controlling everyone else through fear.

                  • Facetious

                    Socialism is a tragedy, a sad and terrible event for the people of the country concerned. God help NZ from getting the fatal disease.

                    • McFlock

                      lol nice one, facetious

                    • Colonial Rawshark

                      Socialism is a tragedy, a sad and terrible event for the people of the country concerned. God help NZ from getting the fatal disease.

                      NZ remains a socialist country at its core. If you don’t like it, you are free to move to the USA where things are so much “better.”

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      Yeah, that fatal disease that built NZ up and almost got round to eliminating poverty…

                      oh, wait…

                    • ropata

                      By your logic, Facetious and clean_power, Capitalism must equal Fascism? Because a social philosophy should always be taken to its most radical and egregious extreme?

                      I call this kind of argument “lying”

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Ropata hits the nail on the head. These dishonest gimps can’t handle the truth.

                    • ropata

                      Facetious, by “socialist” do you mean those kind of countries that had

                      ~an economic theory that demands human sacrifice
                      ~impoverished masses and an untouchable elite
                      ~a police state with total surveillance capability
                      ~no independent media or dissidence
                      ~political propaganda saturation

                      because that is exactly where FJK is taking us

                • Mike S

                  You don’t seem to understand what socialism is. We live in a social democracy. Socialism doesn’t mean communism.

                • ropata

                  You mean Russia that is now ruled by oligarchs and a military dictator?
                  Or Ukraine that is on the verge of civil war?
                  Or Ceaucescu’s Romania?

                  Check your facts before spouting ignorant slogans.

                • ropata

                  Some history for cleanpower

            • Lloyd 5.2.1.1.1.3

              So you want neo-liberal success like Iraq or Russia – both places where the short, sharp , shock of selling off everything the state owned was applied more thoroughly than he Gnats have so far managed with New Zealand’s economy?
              Mixed economies where the state owns a significant part of the economy have been generally healthier for their citizens since the global financial melt-down.

  6. Tracey 6

    “The government has mastered the skill of switching small sums around to give the illusion of progress.”

    And when political journalists have no training or understanding of economics, maths or other related stuff, they can get away with it.

    Come Budget time SURELY the reporting needs to be done by journalists who understand the numbers, the economics etc?

    Audrey Young, John Armstrong etc are not, to my knowledge expert in the stuff required to critique.

    Fran O’Sullivan on the other hand spent her column helping people forget that Banks made a declaration that everything in the form was true and correct to the best of his belief BUT HAD NEVER READ IT, and so by her reasoning is entitled to taxayer funded compensation for the agregious wrongs done him with no part played it in by one Mr Banks.

    • ianmac 6.1

      Let alone the strange fact of 2 X $25,000 and another 3 X $25,000. Or that Mr Banks refuses to comment on those facts.
      It is probable that the Opposition has to be cautious about condemning the economy or just become another Opposition moan. Later in the year the reality of our economy will become clear. Of course English/Key will claim it is outside their control and we are doing so much better than World.

      • Tracey 6.1.1

        yes, but what about the media? Isn’t it their job to read the budget, read/listen to the things said about it by our politicians, analyse it and tell us what stands scrutiny or doesn’t.

        • tc 6.1.1.1

          Media in nz is there to prop up the bs and deception the NACT trot out regularly and keep the steeple dumbed down with celebrity home menu model makeover reality content.

          You only have to to look at the diversions they ran hard with during the recent northland by election and Campbell’s axing to see what their job really is.

    • Colonial Rawshark 6.2

      Come Budget time SURELY the reporting needs to be done by journalists who understand the numbers, the economics etc?

      It probably won’t help – they’ve all been taught a false framework of financialised economics. Like most of our politicians.

      Economics about the infrastructure, capability, capacity and direction of a nation – no one discusses that nowadays. I believe that is what Oram infers when he talks about the wider world that we actually live in and the things which are happening within it.

      Instead “economics” as it is understood by our political class and MSM has been reduced to book keeping and managing numbers.

      • Draco T Bastard 6.2.1

        Instead “economics” as it is understood by our political class and MSM has been reduced to book keeping and managing numbers.

        And profit. Can’t forget the profit. It can’t be economical if one of the new aristocracy isn’t making a profit.

        • Colonial Rawshark 6.2.1.1

          Yeah, and especially profit from ticket clipping on the essentials needed by society. That’s what capitalism has reduced itself to now.

      • dukeofurl 6.2.2

        We saw yesterday on the Standard, Hooton pontificate about Bill Englishes borrowing only being the ‘amount of the budget deficit- $500 or so mill, when the actual deficit on a cash basis is between $6.5 and $7 biilion, as shown by their loan program.

        All along the public is mislead about the government ‘household budget’ being near surplus when its nothing of the sort. The accrual accounting being a piece of smoke and mirrors.

        • Stuart Munro 6.2.2.1

          And Treasury – which Hooton praises extravagantly – are complicit in the lie.

      • Tracey 6.2.3

        it would help them to expose the lies being told about what is actually being done or not. Economic theory aside

  7. Sable 7

    And when the economic miracle National promises doesn’t occur it will all be someone else’s fault. Either the political left or space aliens….I’m sure the MSM can make something up as per usual…

  8. linda 8

    national will need to be forced to take responsibility for there mismanagement and there supporters will need to be made to pay

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1

      That sounds like something a National Party supporter would say. They’re all about getting “tough” on crime, which is one of the reasons we have close to the highest recidivism rate in the developed world.

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    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Thursday, July 25 are:News: Why Electric Kiwi is closing to new customers - and why it matters RNZ’s Susan EdmundsScoop: Government drops ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • The Possum: Demon or Friend?

    Hi,I felt a small wet tongue snaking through one of the holes in my Crocs. It explored my big toe, darting down one side, then the other. “He’s looking for some toe cheese,” said the woman next to me, words that still haunt me to this day.Growing up in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Not a story

    Yesterday I happily quoted the Prime Minister without fact-checking him and sure enough, it turns out his numbers were all to hell. It’s not four kg of Royal Commission report, it’s fourteen.My friend and one-time colleague-in-comms Hazel Phillips gently alerted me to my error almost as soon as I’d hit ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Thursday, July 25

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry published its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • A tougher line on “proactive release”?

    The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 'Let's build a motorway costing $100 million per km, before emissions costs'

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Lester's Prescription – Positive Bleeding.

    I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Casey Costello gaslights Labour in the House

    Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone icon on the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Why is the Texas grid in such bad shape?

    This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Headline from 2021 The Texas grid, run by ERCOT, has had a rough few years. In 2021, winter storm Uri blacked out much of the state for several days. About a week ago, Hurricane Beryl knocked out ...
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

    The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

    Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.    “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

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