Please don’t have to bring out your dead.
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12:27 pm, March 29th, 2020 - 45 comments
Categories: covid-19, Economy, health, Social issues, tourism, uncategorized -
Tags: epidemic, future, pandemic
Anyone who has read even briefly into written human history is going to be aware that it is as much defined by our epidemics and pandemics as by any of our technical and societal achievements. This post is essentially a quick range over the history of pandemics and epidemics with links and some focus on COVID-19.
The effects of pandemics is apparent in the written accounts of the Plague of Justinian which winnowed the Eurasia and Africa for from the 6th century and variations repeating to the early 20th century Or the undocumented plagues that repeatedly decimated or destroyed civilisations in the Americas prior to European invasions. Or the plague disasters that followed the colonial empires spreading regional diseases on a grand scale keep reverberating in indigenous populations to the present day.
Most of the diseases that have been common through human history have had their impacts constrained with the awareness of the sources of epidemic diseases, the introduction of better sanitation, the long slow history of developing vaccines, and effective preventative medical treatments.
But through the 20th century, at least in developed world, the ever-present dread and awareness of epidemics that was still residual during my childhood in the 1960s has dissipated. My grandparents lived in aftermath of the 1918 influenza pandemic. My parents grew up as the polio epidemic was attacking their classmates. During my childhood there were continuous mini-epidemics of various infectious diseases from mumps to measles.
Our generations saw the effect of the introductions of vaccines and the loss of knowledge about epidemics in our society diminished.
As an example in my life, diphtheria was a disease that well known to my grandparents and parents. But it was disease that I had no idea about. The vaccine was introduced into NZ in 1941 for children under 7 well after the 1921 epidemic. This graph from a 2016 post by Helen Petousis-Harris at Te Pūnaha Matatini “If only there had been a vaccine” displays clearly why I wasn’t aware of it – I was born in 1959.
When I’ve talked to my younger relatives and colleagues, their ignorance of the dangers of diseases that were worried the hell out of my parents when I was growing up is just scary as hell. They simply don’t feel the fragility of the clean water systems that we depend on to stave of outbreaks of diseases like cholera, or why using antibiotics blithely for viral diseases or milk production is a stupid idea, or why using vaccines isn’t an individual choice like what brand of cellphone you like.
This ignorance has been particularly apparent to anyone who has spent time online looking aghast at the deliberate spreading of misinformation by anti-vaxxers over the last decade. Instead of the ever-present dangers of re-emerging diseases, recent generations seem to be more invested in the fantasies of the zombie apocalypse rather than the more mundane concerns about rubella or measles.
Virtually all of the epidemics that have a potential of flaring into pandemics now appear to be emerging infectious diseases especially those noted as being ‘novel’ or previously unknown to our medical histories.
Emerging infectious diseases are infections that have recently appeared within a population or those whose incidence or geographic range is rapidly increasing or threatens to increase in the near future. Emerging infections can be caused by:
- Previously undetected or unknown infectious agents
- Known agents that have spread to new geographic locations or new populations
- Previously known agents whose role in specific diseases has previously gone unrecognized.
- Re-emergence of agents whose incidence of disease had significantly declined in the past, but whose incidence of disease has reappeared. This class of diseases is known as re-emerging infectious diseases.
The World Health Organization warned in its 2007 report that infectious diseases are emerging at a rate that has not been seen before. Since the 1970s, about 40 infectious diseases have been discovered, including SARS, MERS, Ebola, chikungunya, avian flu, swine flu and, most recently, Zika.
With people traveling much more frequently and far greater distances than in the past, living in more densely populated areas, and coming into closer contact with wild animals, the potential for emerging infectious diseases to spread rapidly and cause global epidemics is a major concern.
To that list, we can now add severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the virus strain that causes COVID-19. This is probably a well established viral disease in bat populations that has recently made the jump to humans via an immediate species.
Inter-species crossover has been a common theme in novel infectious diseases. HIV probably crossed over from chimpanzees in the early 20th century. MERS is probably a crossover from camels. Ebola probably also from bats via infected apes. Avian flus mostly from from birds and swine flu mostly from pigs as their names indicate.
The issue with novel diseases is that when they do managed to have an inter-species crossover that allows for a successful intra-species infection in humans, they are sometimes extremely infectious. Frequently they’re so infectious that they are self-limiting.
Ebola is like this. When it gets into a susceptible population with poor medical support with social hygiene and customs that facilitate immediate transmission, the outbreaks burn themselves out fast. That is because the association between caring for patients or grieving for the dead becomes obvious within a short period to survivors.
This is a self-limiting strategy for the disease. To date Ebola has had limited success infecting anyone outside of central Africa despite a number of infected travellers, particularly in 2014.
The 2003 SARS outbreak was contained primarily because the number of people with mild symptoms were low. It also did not have a . This made isolation of the infected, the containment and testing of people that were associated with, and the eventual eradication of the disease feasible. But there was also a healthy dose of just luck as a World Health Organisation after-action-review made clear:-
The rapid containment of SARS is a success in public health, but also a warning. It is proof of the power of international collaboration supported at the highest political level. It is also proof of the effectiveness of GOARN in detecting and responding to emerging infections of international public health importance. At the same time, containment of SARS was aided by good fortune. The most severely affected areas in the SARS outbreak had well-developed health care systems. Had SARS established a foothold in countries where health systems are less well developed cases might still be occurring, with global containment much more difficult, if not impossible.
Although control measures were effective, they were extremely disruptive and consumed enormous resources — resources that might not have been sustainable over time. If SARS reoccurs during an influenza season, health systems worldwide will be put under extreme pressure as they seek to isolate all those who fit the clinical case definition until diagnosis can be ascertained. Continued vigilance is vital.
This chapter has illustrated how quickly a new disease can threaten global health. Thankfully, not all diseases move at such speed; but some are more stealthy and more lethal.
The SARS epidemic was contained within 12 months. Which in retrospect was somewhat unfortunate. Most of the advanced efforts to get an effective vaccine or treatment against SARS were shelved as the epidemic was being contained or in the decade following in a classic case of failing to be actively proactive after a scare.
There are a number of vaccines that were developed. Many of which had issues with the effect of the vaccine causing over-energetic responses in test subject’s auto-immune systems and increased symptoms. Unfortunately excessive auto-immune responses are also the main cause of fatalities with both SARS and COVID-19.
The COVID-19 is in many ways similar with the 2003 SARS outbreak as this Lancet article “Can we contain the COVID-19 outbreak with the same measures as for SARS?” but has some differences that make it far more stealthy.
Clear differences are emerging, such as in transmissibility and severity pyramids; COVID-19 has a higher transmissibility than SARS, and many more patients with COVID-19 rather than SARS have mild symptoms that contribute to spread because these patients are often missed and not isolated.
Mild symptoms with COVID-19 are really really problematic for containment because of the viral shedding as this quotation from the Lancet article makes clear (my italics).
Isolation was effective for SARS because peak viral shedding occurred after patients were already quite ill with respiratory symptoms and could be easily identified. Although asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients have been reported for SARS,35 no known transmission occurred from these patients. By contrast, preliminary evidence from exported COVID-19 cases suggest that transmission during the early phase of illness also seems to contribute to overall transmission;36, 37 therefore, isolation of more severely ill patients at the time of presentation to health-care facilities will be too late. The effectiveness of isolation and contact tracing methods depends on the proportion of transmission that occurs before symptom onset. Pre-symptomatic transmission will also make temperature screening less effective.38
In other words, with COVID-19 you can be infected with few or even no symptoms and still infect others as a carrier. With SARS it could be contained because people who had it were symptomatic and infectious or non-symptomatic and apparently not infectious. What is also known is that people who have gotten over the disease can also shed viruses for some time afterwards. The European CDC says in their discharge criteria
SARS-CoV-2 virus can initially be detected 1–2 days prior to symptom onset in upper respiratory tract samples; the virus can persist for 7–12 days in moderate cases and up to 2 weeks in severe cases (WHO mission to China Report) [1]. In faeces, viral RNA has been detected in up to 30% of patients from day 5 after onset and up to 4 to 5 weeks in moderate cases. The significance of faecal viral shedding for transmission still has to be clarified [1].
In the absence of a vaccine or preventative treatment, the mild symptomatic infection and potentially long shedding periods mean in most places containment is likely to fail as strategy.
While potential for fast report antibody tests will capable of detecting if someone has contacted the disease. However as the New Scientist and others pointed out
If we know someone has had the virus, they can potentially leave their home without risk of being re-infected, which would help countries get moving again. However, the accuracy of the tests has yet to be established. “The one thing that’s worse than no test is an inaccurate test,” Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical adviser, said on 25 March. Someone wrongly told they have already had covid-19 could go out and get infected.
and
The antibody response to the coronavirus may be delayed compared with other infections. The tests can be used only 14 days or more after people develop symptoms, says Adams.
This also means antibody testing will be of limited use for tracing the contacts of infected people – which many think is crucial for controlling the outbreak – because health authorities will be weeks behind.
Plus a positive antibody test doesn’t indicate where people are in the virus shedding cycle. Currently only a swab test taken by trained personnel and sent to lab for analysis will do that.
Which makes Boris Johnson’s enthusiasm for the antibody test (even assuming it works as advertised) as being ‘game-changer’ ridiculous. It serves more as an indication of his habit of being a dangerously ignorant idiot. The New Scientist article ends with a better informed and thought through analysis..
On the plus side, many groups are working on faster genetic tests and on antigen tests that can detect the virus in, say, saliva. Testing widely for both active infections and past infections should be a highly effective combination.
Of course to make that work for getting people back into the workforce, we’d probably need to bulk-order bracelets to allow confirmation for people who can be out and about because they neither get nor infect with the virus. I’d imagine that in NZ that being required to carry infection status identity will, in itself, cause some debate.
However in New Zealand we have what Jacinda Ardern describes as a “reasonable” chance of doing a containment strategy. Closed borders apart from those kiwis and their spouses and dependents still able to make it back, a slowly increasingly strict isolation policy for arrivals, and a lock-down for 4 weeks make it possible.
My background as a part-time army medic and as a lifelong student of the history of epidemics makes me want to get somewhat draconian.
For travellers arriving, our continuing primary disease vector, we should use the isolation model that Taiwan has been using. Ensure that people in isolation have food delivered and don’t have to leave. If they are in a hotel or home then require active tracking the GPS of phones, and regularly and randomly auto-poll that phone to make sure that the owner is next to the phone. One article I read on Medium which I can’t find now described the wakeup call that one taiwanese arrival got when their cellphone battery ran out of power and they had police banging on their door shortly afterwards.
If people don’t follow the common sense rules for isolation to prevent the spread of infection, then I’m sure that we can find an island and a tent to drop them on for a month until the court has time to deal with them. At the very least it will prevent them to be being a stupid danger to others.
I’d suggest that the same happens to the owner or manager of businesses who self-deem themselves to be ‘essential’. Not only are they putting customers in danger, but presumably they’re also pressuring employees to do it as well.
The biggest problems for NZ with our current strategy is to prevent issues with community transfer during and after the release of the lockdown. This would result in lockdowns extending or resuming in areas – often far wider than local areas.
So far I’m not optimistic that a single national lockdown will be completely effective because people seem to be taking some very liberal interpretations of what a household ‘bubble’ means. There are anecdotal reports of household bubbles joining up so that their kids can play together. Or kids playing games in parks. Its going to be interesting see how this plays out in the coming weeks. Each of these effectively widen out any lockdown to quarantine outbreaks.
Hopefully someone has started to do location tracking on cellphones to find out what are actual ‘local’ areas as evidenced by actual aggregate movements.
If our containment strategy does work and community spread is eliminated. Then the big question is – how we reconnect to rest of the world?
We’d wind up with a small number of immune people and most people being susceptible. At the very least, we’d need to have border antibody and live virus tests before people boarded and a rapid retest on arrival. Validation of the error rates on combinations of tests will determine the risk levels. Otherwise tourists, business travel, and returning kiwis will require 14 days quarantine.
Our tourist industry will be hanging out for a vaccine in NZ. Realistically before we can start up Hobbiton we’d require a largely immune population.
As importantly, before we restart our tourism industry or to allow kiwis to fly offshore again, we’re going to need to have a very close look at how we deal with the next ‘novel’ disease. I, for one, have absolutely no real interest in dying for tourism.
Basically we are trying to do with our containment strategies is to avoid the modern analogue in a covid-19 Italy and elsewhere of “bring out your dead”. This was the defining civic characteristic of past pandemics.
In Italy, as the fatalities of covid-19 overwhelm the funeral systems we get the military being called in to transport the dead.
Italian army called in to help transport the dead – REUTERS
At least it is a bit more civilised and dignified than the black humour of Monty Python’s depiction of the same task in a medieval plague.
Anything is better than that.
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- The motorways are finishedAfter seventy years, Auckland’s motorway network is finally finished. In July 1953 the first section of motorway in Auckland was opened between Ellerslie-Panmure Highway and Mt Wellington Highway. The final stage opens to traffic this week with the completion of the motorway part of the Northern Corridor Improvements project. Aucklanders ...4 days ago
- Kicking National’s tyresNational’s appointment of Todd McClay as Agriculture spokesperson clearly signals that the party is in trouble with the farming vote. McClay was not an obvious choice, but he does have a record as a political scrapper. The party needs that because sources say it has been shedding farming votes ...5 days ago
- As long as there is cricket, the world is somehow okay.
Rays of white light come flooding into my lounge, into my face from over the top of my neighbour’s hedge. I have to look away as the window of the conservatory is awash in light, as if you were driving towards the sun after a rain shower and suddenly blinded. ...5 days ago - So much of what was there remains
The columnists in Private Eye take pen names, so I have not the least idea who any of them are. But I greatly appreciate their expert insight, especially MD, who writes the medical column, offering informed and often damning critique of the UK health system and the politicians who keep ...6 days ago - 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #11A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Mar 12, 2023 thru Sat, Mar 18, 2023. Story of the Week Guest post: What 13,500 citations reveal about the IPCC’s climate science report IPCC WG1 AR6 SPM Report Cover - Changing ...6 days ago
- Financial capability services are being bucked up, but Stuart Nash shouldn’t have to see if they c...Buzz from the Beehive The building of financial capability was brought into our considerations when Social Development and Employment Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced she had dipped into the government’s coffers for $3 million for “providers” to help people and families access community-based Building Financial Capability services. That wording suggests some ...6 days ago
- Things that make you go Hmmmm.
Do you ever come across something that makes you go Hmmmm?You mean like the song?No, I wasn’t thinking of the song, but I am now - thanks for that. I was thinking of things you read or hear that make you stop and go Hmmmm.Yeah, I know what you mean, ...6 days ago - The hoon for the week that was to March 19By the end of the week, the dramas over Stuart Nash overshadowed Hipkins’ policy bonfire. File photo: Lynn GrieveasonTLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and the political economy covered on The Kākā included:PM Chris Hipkins’ announcement of the rest of a policy bonfire to save a combined $1.7 billion, but ...7 days ago
- Saving Stuart Nash: Explaining Chris Hipkins' unexpected political calculation
When word went out that Prime Minister Chris Hipkins would be making an announcement about Stuart Nash on the tiles at parliament at 2:45pm yesterday, the assumption was that it was over. That we had reached tipping point for Nash’s time as minister. But by 3pm - when, coincidentally, the ...7 days ago - Radical Uncertainty
Two senior economists challenge some of the foundations of current economics. It is easy to criticise economic science by misrepresenting it, by selective quotations, and by ignoring that it progresses, like all sciences, by improving and abandoning old theories. The critics may go on to attack physics by citing Newton.So ...1 week ago - Jump onto the weekly hoon on Riverside at 5pm
Photo by Walker Fenton on UnsplashIt’s that time of the week again when and I co-host our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kaka for an hour at 5 pm. Jump on this link on Riverside (we’ve moved from Zoom) for our chat about the week’s news with ...1 week ago - The Dream of Florian Neame: Accepted
In a nice bit of news, my 2550-word deindustrial science-fiction piece, The Dream of Florian Neame, has been accepted for publication at New Maps Magazine (https://www.new-maps.com/). I have published there before, of course, with Of Tin and Tintagel coming out last year. While I still await the ...1 week ago - Snakes and leaders
And so this is Friday, and what have we learned?It was a week with all the usual luggage: minister brags and then he quits, Hollywood red carpet is full of twits. And all the while, hanging over the trivial stuff: existential dread, and portents of doom.Depending on who you read ...1 week ago - This station is Karanga-a-Hape, Chur!
When I changed the name of this newsletter from The Daily Read to Nick’s Kōrero I was a bit worried whether people would know what Kōrero meant or not. I added a definition when I announced the change and kind of assumed people who weren’t familiar with it would get ...1 week ago - Greens don’t shy from promoting a candidate’s queerness but are quiet about govt announcement on...There was a time when a political party’s publicity people would counsel against promoting a candidate as queer. No matter which of two dictionary meanings the voting public might choose to apply – the old meaning of odd, strange, weird, or aberrant, or the more recent meaning of gay, homosexual ...1 week ago
- Ask Me Anything about the week to March 17
Photo by Joakim Honkasalo on UnsplashIt’s that time of the week for an ‘Ask Me Anything’ session for paying subscribers about the week that was for the next hour, including:PM Chris Hipkins announcement of the rest of a policy bonfire to save a combined $1.7 billion, but which blew up ...1 week ago - Slow consenting could create $16b climate liability by 2050Even though concern over the climate change threat is becoming more mainstream, our governments continue to opt out of the difficult decisions at the expense of time, and cost for future generations. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: Now we have a climate liability number to measure the potential failure of the ...1 week ago
- THOMAS CRANMER: Challenging progressivism in New Zealand’s culture warsThomas Cranmer writes Like it or not, the culture wars have entered New Zealand politics and look set to broaden and intensify. The culture wars are often viewed as an exclusively American phenomenon, but the reality is that they are becoming increasingly prominent in countries around the world, ...1 week ago
- ‘The Real State of the Nation’
Good afternoon. Thank you for the invitation to speak with you today and in your busy lives turning up to this meeting. Forty five years ago, in Howick, often described as racist, and where few Maori lived because it had been a ‘Fencible’ settlement at the time of the Anglo-Maori ...5 hours ago - National’s education policy gets an F
The Green Party has marked the National Party’s new education policy and given it a fail, especially for its failure to address the underlying drivers of school performance. ...1 day ago - Child poverty stats show need for actionThe Green Party is calling on the Government to immediately provide more support to families doing it toughest. ...1 day ago
- Greens ask Auckland MPs across party lines to speak up on Council budget proposalsAuckland Central Green MP, Chlöe Swarbrick, has written to all Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland based Members of Parliament requesting their urgent attention to Auckland Council’s unprecedented slash-and-burn proposals. ...2 days ago
- Enough slow progress, 2023 is a fight for our futurePolitical parties that want to negotiate with the Green Party must come to the table with much faster, bolder climate action, co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson emphasised in their State of the Planet speech today. ...5 days ago
- Greens call time on slow progressPolitical parties that want to negotiate with the Green Party after the election must come to the table with much faster, bolder climate action, co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson emphasised today. ...5 days ago
- Green Party co-leader James Shaw's State of the Planet speech, 2023You will never truly understand, from the pictures you’ve seen in the newspapers or on the six o-clock news, the sheer scale of the devastation wrought by Cyclone Gabrielle. ...5 days ago
- More cost of living support for Kiwis
We’re boosting incomes and helping ease cost of living pressures on Kiwis through a range of bread and butter support measures that will see pensioners, students, families, and those on main benefits better off from the start of next month. ...1 week ago - Greens back teachers’ demandsThe Green Party backs the demands of the teachers’ strikers. ...1 week ago
- Greens will waste no time with Minister for Zero WasteThe error Labour Ministers made by stopping work on a beverage container return scheme will be reversed by the Greens at the earliest opportunity as part of the next Government. ...1 week ago
- Greens secure win for clean transportThe Green Party has made it easier for commuters to access e-bikes thanks to an amendment to tax rules. ...1 week ago
- Greens will always prioritise action on climate and inequality“Cabinet needs to do better - and today has shown exactly why we need Green Ministers in cabinet, so we can prioritise action to cut climate pollution and support people to make ends meet,” says Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson. ...2 weeks ago
- Bold action needed to help people eatBiggest increase in food prices for over three decades shows the need for an excess profit tax on corporations to help people put food on the table. ...2 weeks ago
- Another Green transport idea gets the green lightThe Government’s announcement today that it will improve Christchurch’s bus system comes after Green and NGO pressure. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens back teachers’ strikeThe Green Party stands with teachers in their request for fair pay and decision to strike. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens launch submission guide for Auckland Council budgetThe Green Party has today launched a submission guide to help Aucklanders give crucial input and prevent potentially disastrous Auckland Council budget proposals. ...2 weeks ago
- When even the Nats agree bank profits are out of control, it’s time for an excess profits taxWith calls growing for inquiries and action on bank profits, the Greens say the Government has all the information it needs to act now and put a levy on banks. ...2 weeks ago
- Climate action must remain priority in transport investmentAs large parts of Aotearoa recover from two of the worst climate disasters we have ever experienced, it would be a huge mistake for the Government to deprioritise climate action from future transport investments, the Green Party says. ...3 weeks ago
- Historic oceans treaty a wake-up call for AotearoaThe Green Party is celebrating the signing of a historic United Nations Ocean Treaty, and calls on the new Oceans and Fisheries Minister to urgently step up protection for Aotearoa’s oceans. ...3 weeks ago
- National would make life harder for peopleChristopher Luxon and the National Party are not telling the full story when it comes to childcare, the Green Party says. ...3 weeks ago
- District Court Judges appointed
Attorney-General David Parker has announced the appointment of Christopher John Dellabarca of Wellington, Dr Katie Jane Elkin of Wellington, Caroline Mary Hickman of Napier, Ngaroma Tahana of Rotorua, Tania Rose Williams Blyth of Hamilton and Nicola Jan Wills of Wellington as District Court Judges. Chris Dellabarca Mr Dellabarca commenced his ...6 hours ago - New project set to supercharge ocean economy in Nelson TasmanA new Government-backed project will help ocean-related businesses in the Nelson Tasman region to accelerate their growth and boost jobs. “The Nelson Tasman region is home to more than 400 blue economy businesses, accounting for more than 30 percent of New Zealand’s economic activity in fishing, aquaculture, and seafood processing,” ...1 day ago
- National’s education policy: where’s the funding?After three years of COVID-19 disruptions schools are finally settling down and National want to throw that all in the air with major disruption to learning and underinvestment. “National’s education policy lacks the very thing teachers, parents and students need after a tough couple of years, certainty and stability,” Education ...1 day ago
- Free programme to help older entrepreneurs and inventorsPeople aged over 50 with innovative business ideas will now be able to receive support to advance their ideas to the next stage of development, Minister for Seniors Ginny Andersen said today. “Seniors have some great entrepreneurial ideas, and this programme will give them the support to take that next ...1 day ago
- Government target increased to keep powering up the Māori economyA cross government target for relevant government procurement contracts for goods and services to be awarded to Māori businesses annually will increase to 8%, after the initial 5% target was exceeded. The progressive procurement policy was introduced in 2020 to increase supplier diversity, starting with Māori businesses, for the estimated ...1 day ago
- Continued progress on reducing poverty in challenging times77,000 fewer children living in low income households on the after-housing-costs primary measure since Labour took office Eight of the nine child poverty measures have seen a statistically significant reduction since 2018. All nine have reduced 28,700 fewer children experiencing material hardship since 2018 Measures taken by the Government during ...1 day ago
- Speech at Fiji Investment and Trade Business ForumDeputy Prime Minister Kamikamica; distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. Tēnā koutou katoa, ni sa bula vinaka saka, namaste. Deputy Prime Minister, a very warm welcome to Aotearoa. I trust you have been enjoying your time here and thank you for joining us here today. To all delegates who have travelled to be ...1 day ago
- Government investments boost and diversify local economies in lower South Island$2.9 million convertible loan for Scapegrace Distillery to meet growing national and international demand $4.5m underwrite to support Silverlight Studios’ project to establish a film studio in Wanaka Gore’s James Cumming Community Centre and Library to be official opened tomorrow with support of $3m from the COVID-19 Response and Recovery ...1 day ago
- Government future-proofs EV chargingTransport Minister Michael Wood has today launched the first national EV (electric vehicle) charging strategy, Charging Our Future, which includes plans to provide EV charging stations in almost every town in New Zealand. “Our vision is for Aotearoa New Zealand to have world-class EV charging infrastructure that is accessible, affordable, ...2 days ago
- World-leading family harm prevention campaign supports young NZersAssociate Minister for Social Development and Employment Priyanca Radhakrishnan has today launched the Love Better campaign in a world-leading approach to family harm prevention. Love Better will initially support young people through their experience of break-ups, developing positive and life-long attitudes to dealing with hurt. “Over 1,200 young kiwis told ...2 days ago
- First Chief Clinical Advisor welcomed into Coroners CourtHon Rino Tirikatene, Minister for Courts, welcomes the Ministry of Justice’s appointment of Dr Garry Clearwater as New Zealand’s first Chief Clinical Advisor working with the Coroners Court. “This appointment is significant for the Coroners Court and New Zealand’s wider coronial system.” Minister Tirikatene said. Through Budget 2022, the Government ...2 days ago
- Next steps for affected properties post Cyclone and floodsThe Government via the Cyclone Taskforce is working with local government and insurance companies to build a picture of high-risk areas following Cyclone Gabrielle and January floods. “The Taskforce, led by Sir Brian Roche, has been working with insurance companies to undertake an assessment of high-risk areas so we can ...2 days ago
- New appointment to Māori Land Court benchE te huia kaimanawa, ko Ngāpuhi e whakahari ana i tau aupikinga ki te tihi o te maunga. Ko te Ao Māori hoki e whakanui ana i a koe te whakaihu waka o te reo Māori i roto i te Ao Ture. (To the prized treasure, it is Ngāpuhi who ...2 days ago
- Government focus on jobs sees record number of New Zealanders move from Benefits into work113,400 exits into work in the year to June 2022 Young people are moving off Benefit faster than after the Global Financial Crisis Two reports released today by the Ministry of Social Development show the Government’s investment in the COVID-19 response helped drive record numbers of people off Benefits and ...3 days ago
- Vertical farming partnership has upward momentumThe Government’s priority to keep New Zealand at the cutting edge of food production and lift our sustainability credentials continues by backing the next steps of a hi-tech vertical farming venture that uses up to 95 per cent less water, is climate resilient, and pesticide-free. Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor visited ...3 days ago
- Conference of Pacific Education Ministers – Keynote AddressE nga mana, e nga iwi, e nga reo, e nga hau e wha, tena koutou, tena koutou, tena koutou kātoa. Warm Pacific greetings to all. It is an honour to host the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Aotearoa is delighted to be hosting you ...3 days ago
- New $13m renal unit supports Taranaki patientsThe new renal unit at Taranaki Base Hospital has been officially opened by the Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall this afternoon. Te Huhi Raupō received around $13 million in government funding as part of Project Maunga Stage 2, the redevelopment of the Taranaki Base Hospital campus. “It’s an honour ...3 days ago
- Second Poseidon aircraft on home soilDefence Minister Andrew Little has marked the arrival of the country’s second P-8A Poseidon aircraft alongside personnel at the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s Base at Ohakea today. “With two of the four P-8A Poseidons now on home soil this marks another significant milestone in the Government’s historic investment in ...3 days ago
- Further humanitarian aid for Türkiye and SyriaAotearoa New Zealand will provide further humanitarian support to those seriously affected by last month’s deadly earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria, says Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta. “The 6 February earthquakes have had devastating consequences, with almost 18 million people affected. More than 53,000 people have died and tens of thousands more ...3 days ago
- Community voice to help shape immigration policyMigrant communities across New Zealand are represented in the new Migrant Community Reference Group that will help shape immigration policy going forward, Immigration Minister Michael Wood announced today. “Since becoming Minister, a reoccurring message I have heard from migrants is the feeling their voice has often been missing around policy ...3 days ago
- State Highway 3 project to deliver safer journeys, better travel connections for TaranakiConstruction has begun on major works that will deliver significant safety improvements on State Highway 3 from Waitara to Bell Block, Associate Minister of Transport Kiri Allan announced today. “This is an important route for communities, freight and visitors to Taranaki but too many people have lost their lives or ...3 days ago
- Ginny Andersen appointed as Minister of PolicePrime Minister Chris Hipkins has today appointed Ginny Andersen as Minister of Police. “Ginny Andersen has a strong and relevant background in this important portfolio,” Chris Hipkins said. “Ginny Andersen worked for the Police as a non-sworn staff member for around 10 years and has more recently been chair of ...4 days ago
- Government confirms vital roading reconnectionsSix further bailey bridge sites confirmed Four additional bridge sites under consideration 91 per cent of damaged state highways reopened Recovery Dashboards for impacted regions released The Government has responded quickly to restore lifeline routes after Cyclone Gabrielle and can today confirm that an additional six bailey bridges will ...4 days ago
- Foreign Minister Mahuta to meet with China’s new Foreign MinisterForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for China tomorrow, where she will meet with her counterpart, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, in Beijing. This will be the first visit by a New Zealand Minister to China since 2019, and follows the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions between New Zealand and China. ...4 days ago
- Education Ministers from across the Pacific gather in AotearoaEducation Ministers from across the Pacific will gather in Tāmaki Makaurau this week to share their collective knowledge and strategic vision, for the benefit of ākonga across the region. New Zealand Education Minister Jan Tinetti will host the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers (CPEM) for three days from today, ...4 days ago
- State Highway 5 reopens between Napier and Taupō following Cyclone GabrielleA vital transport link for communities and local businesses has been restored following Cyclone Gabrielle with the reopening of State Highway 5 (SH5) between Napier and Taupō, Associate Minister of Transport Kiri Allan says. SH5 reopened to all traffic between 7am and 7pm from today, with closure points at SH2 (Kaimata ...4 days ago
- Special Lotto draw raises $11.7 million for Cyclone Gabrielle recoveryInternal Affairs Minister Barbara Edmonds has thanked generous New Zealanders who took part in the special Lotto draw for communities affected by Cyclone Gabrielle. Held on Saturday night, the draw raised $11.7 million with half of all ticket sales going towards recovery efforts. “In a time of need, New Zealanders ...5 days ago
- Government delivers a $3 million funding boost for Building Financial Capability servicesThe Government has announced funding of $3 million for providers to help people, and whānau access community-based Building Financial Capability services. “Demand for Financial Capability Services is growing as people face cost of living pressures. Those pressures are increasing further in areas affected by flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle,” Minister for ...1 week ago
- Education New Zealand | Manapou ki te Ao – new Chair and memberMinister of Education, Hon Jan Tinetti, has announced appointments to the Board of Education New Zealand | Manapou ki te Ao. Tracey Bridges is joining the Board as the new Chair and Dr Therese Arseneau will be a new member. Current members Dr Linda Sissons CNZM and Daniel Wilson have ...1 week ago
- Scholarships honouring Ngarimu VC and the 28th (Māori) Battalion announcedFifteen ākonga Māori from across Aotearoa have been awarded the prestigious Ngarimu VC and 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial Scholarships and Awards for 2023, Associate Education Minister and Ngarimu Board Chair, Kelvin Davis announced today. The recipients include doctoral, masters’ and undergraduate students. Three vocational training students and five wharekura students, ...1 week ago
- Appointment of Judge of the Court of Appeal and Judge of the High CourtHigh Court Judge Jillian Maree Mallon has been appointed a Judge of the Court of Appeal, and District Court Judge Andrew John Becroft QSO has been appointed a Judge of the High Court, Attorney‑General David Parker announced today. Justice Mallon graduated from Otago University in 1988 with an LLB (Hons), and with ...1 week ago
- NZ still well placed to meet global challengesThe economy has continued to show its resilience despite today’s GDP figures showing a modest decline in the December quarter, leaving the Government well positioned to help New Zealanders face cost of living pressures in a challenging global environment. “The economy had grown strongly in the two quarters before this ...1 week ago
- Western Ring Route CompleteAucklanders now have more ways to get around as Transport Minister Michael Wood opened the direct State Highway 1 (SH1) to State Highway 18 (SH18) underpass today, marking the completion of the 48-kilometre Western Ring Route (WRR). “The Government is upgrading New Zealand’s transport system to make it safer, more ...1 week ago
- Briefings to Incoming MinistersThis section contains briefings received by incoming ministers following changes to Cabinet in January. Some information may have been withheld in accordance with the Official Information Act 1982. Where information has been withheld that is indicated within the document. ...1 week ago
- Teaming up for a stronger, more resilient FijiAotearoa New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta reaffirmed her commitment to working together with the new Government of Fiji on issues of shared importance, including on the prioritisation of climate change and sustainability, at a meeting today, in Nadi. Fiji and Aotearoa New Zealand’s close relationship is underpinned by the Duavata ...1 week ago
- Investment in blue highway a lifeline for regional economies and cyclone recoveryThe Government is delivering a coastal shipping lifeline for businesses, residents and the primary sector in the cyclone-stricken regions of Hawkes Bay and Tairāwhiti, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan announced today. The Rangitata vessel has been chartered for an emergency coastal shipping route between Gisborne and Napier, with potential for ...1 week ago
- Next steps developing clean energy for NZThe Government will progress to the next stage of the NZ Battery Project, looking at the viability of pumped hydro as well as an alternative, multi-technology approach as part of the Government’s long term-plan to build a resilient, affordable, secure and decarbonised energy system in New Zealand, Energy and Resources ...1 week ago
- Statement from the Prime Minister on Stuart NashThis morning I was made aware of a media interview in which Minister Stuart Nash criticised a decision of the Court and said he had contacted the Police Commissioner to suggest the Police appeal the decision. The phone call took place in 2021 when he was not the Police Minister. ...1 week ago
- CPTPP Trade Ministers coming to AucklandThe Government’s sharp focus on trade continues with Aotearoa New Zealand set to host Trade Ministers and delegations from 10 Asia Pacific economies at a meeting of Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) Commission members in July, Minister for Trade and Export Growth Damien O’Connor announced today. “New Zealand ...1 week ago
- Govt approves $25 million extension for cyclone-affected businesses$25 million boost to support more businesses with clean-up in cyclone affected regions, taking total business support to more than $50 million Demand for grants has been strong, with estimates showing applications will exceed the initial $25 million business support package Grants of up to a maximum of $40,000 per ...1 week ago
- A new review into how teachers are educated should acknowledge they learn throughout their careers (...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Beryl Exley, Professor, Griffith Institute for Educational Research, Griffith University, Griffith University Shutterstock Last August, the federal government set up an expert panel to look at the continuous improvement agenda in teacher education in Australia. The panel, led by ...53 mins ago - Analysis: Teachers need a lot of things, another curriculum 'rewrite' isn't one
We all clearly want the best learning outcomes for our nation's children, but there are deep ideological divisions, writes Cathy Buntting. ...2 hours ago - The Winston Peters greatest hits hour
The New Zealand First leader took to the altar of an East Auckland church today to set out his 2023 election agenda. It was, as Stewart Sowman-Lund found out, pretty much what you’d expect. Winston Peters rolled into Howick today with a state of the nation speech that, he claimed ...3 hours ago - Woolworths is getting into telehealth – but patients need to be treated as more than customersSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Wardle, Professor of Public Health, Southern Cross University Shutterstock Earlier this week, Australian retail giant Woolworths announced a move into health-care delivery via development of its subsidiary HealthyLife’s online portal. Through this portal, Australians can book a same-day ...3 hours ago
- Winston Peters rails against secret 'woke agenda' in campaign speechNew Zealand First leader Winston Peters - eyeing a political comeback - has used a scene-setting speech in Auckland warning against a "conceited, conniving, cultural cabal". ...3 hours ago
- At the 2023 Adelaide Festival, the best works shimmer with a brutal honesty on incarceration, exile ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Peterson, Adjunct Associate Professor, Auckland University of Technology The Sheep Song. Tim Standing/Daylight Breaks/Adelaide Festival Few Adelaideans remember a time before the Adelaide Festival. Formed in 1960 as a civic enterprise and financed against loss by prominent Adelaide businessmen, the ...4 hours ago
- Week in Politics: Minor parties could hold unprecedented influence post-electionAnalysis - The Greens lay down a challenge as the minor parties approach an election in which both National and Labour are going to need coalition partners to form a government, writes Peter Wilson. ...4 hours ago
- Repeal Fiji’s media law and start with ‘clean slate’, says CFL chiefBy Arieta Vakasukawaqa in Suva Communications Fiji Ltd (CFL) chair William Parkinson has called for a repeal of Fiji’s Media Industry Development Act 2010 and more discussion on the proposed Media Ownership and Registration Bill 2023. He said this during a public consultation on the review of MIDA Act 2010 ...5 hours ago
- Posie Parker wins the beautiful freedom to make an ugly argument
High Court Justice David Gendall regretfully allows anti-trans activist to enter New Zealand, but warns the expression of her views may be harmful to our vulnerable rainbow community. Jonathan Milne does his best to be civil. Opinion: Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull calls herself Posie Parker. And that's what I'm going to call her. Because she is ...5 hours ago - Guy Montgomery’s Guy Mont Spelling Bee is an absolute joyIt’s about time somebody made a wacky TV show about how bonkers spelling is. Enter comedian Guy Montgomery and his Guy Mont Spelling Bee. The three years since Covid-19 began have been pretty rocky, but one of the best things to come out of the chaos was Guy Montgomery’s Guy ...5 hours ago
- Psychologists Condemn Anti-trans Hate Speech And Urge The Government To Put Hate Speech Laws Back On...
Te Rōpū Mātai Hinengaro o Aotearoa, The New Zealand Psychological Society (NZPsS) stands beside LGBTQIA+ and Takatāpui communities rallying against anti-trans rhetoric in light of the impending visit of Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull (Posie Parker). We are ...5 hours ago - Shocking and controversial: MAFS Australia has outrated 1NewsEarlier this month, everybody’s favourite Monster of the Week series Married at First Sight Australia toppled 1News to become the highest rating television show for New Zealand viewers aged 25-54. The controversial reality series garnered an average audience of 137,000, or 6.7% audience share from March 5 until March 11. ...5 hours ago
- Ingredient of the week: FeijoasIt’s the most wonderful time of the year for feijoa lovers – here’s how to make the most of it. Fragrant and sweet, with a delicate jelly centre surrounded by gritty, tangy flesh, all encased in a green sour skin. My parents’ feijoa tree has just dropped its first fruit, ...5 hours ago
- The Friday Poem: ‘Bang a Drum’ by Maggie Rainey-SmithA new poem by poet and novelist Maggie Rainey-Smith. Bang a Drum We’ve hit Gentle Annie passed the pub at Okaramio and on the left, at Wakapuaka there’s Sunnybank where parents left their children An oddly named orphanage manned (ha) by Nuns childless women in black habits, scapula, cowls and ...5 hours ago
- Teachers need a lot of things right now, but another curriculum ‘rewrite’ isn’t one of themSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cathy Buntting, Director, Wilf Malcolm Institute of Educational Research, University of Waikato Getty Images Less than a fortnight after teachers staged a national strike, education was back in the headlines with the National Party’s release of its curriculum policy – ...6 hours ago
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending March 24The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Birnam Wood by Eleanor Catton (Te Herenga Waka University Press, $38) Number one in both ...6 hours ago
- High Court Decision The Only Right Result For Nation That Values Free SpeechThe Free Speech Union welcomes the decision of the High Court to reject the application to overrule the decision of the Minister of Immigration to allow Kellie-Jay entry into New Zealand. This was the only right result for a nation that ...6 hours ago
- AI chatbots with Chinese characteristics: why Baidu’s ChatGPT rival may never measure upSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fan Yang, Research Associate at RMIT and Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University Baidu’s ERNIE Bot was launched to considerable disappointment. Ng Han Guan / AP On March 16, Baidu unveiled China’s latest rival to OpenAI’s ChatGPT – ERNIE Bot (short for “Enhanced ...7 hours ago
- Ask Fiji military about ‘guns on plane’ claims, says Sayed-KhaiyumBy Meri Radinibaravi in Suva Former attorney-general Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum has told The Fiji Times to ask the Republic of Fiji Military Forces about claims that his bodyguards were allowed to take guns on to Fiji Link flights without proper authorisation. “I understand that there’s some enquiries going on regarding that ...7 hours ago
- Melbourne Now: a vast, sprawling and inspiring exhibition that seems to burst out of its architectur...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sasha Grishin, Adjunct Professor of Art History, Australian National University Installation view of Troy Emery’s work Mountain climber 2022 on display as part of the Melbourne Now exhibition at The Ian Potter Centre: NGV Australia, Melbourne from 24 March – 20 August ...7 hours ago
- KPIs are for businesses and boardrooms, not children and schoolsNational’s education policy reinforces an old-fashioned and hierarchical curriculum that does lasting harm to many students, writes educational specialist Dr Sarah Aiono. Announcing the National Party’s new education policy this week, leader Christopher Luxon cited a recent NCEA pilot in which two-thirds of students were unable to meet the minimum ...7 hours ago
- Last ditch attempt to stop anti-trans speaker from entering NZ failsAttempts by rainbow groups to stop an anti-trans campaigner entering the country have failed. The High Court has dismissed a judicial review application from Gender Minorities Aotearoa, InsideOUT Kōara and Auckland Pride, aimed at the immigration minister for allowing Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull into New Zealand. As part of the application, the ...7 hours ago
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Thank you LPent.
I'm a bit older than you, Lynn. I remember queuing up at primary school for a polio vaccine (oral) and BCG test for TB. the TB test involved being kind of stamped with multiple skin pricks in one shot, on the wrist.
I recall being scared when I heard an adult down our street was partially paralysed as a result of polio. Eventually I confided my fear in my mother at bedtime. She reassured me I wouldn't get it, cos she and Dad hadn't got it, etc.
The first couple of times I travelled overseas, I had cholera injections, and small pox scratch-type vaccines on my shoulder – still have the scar. Whilst travelling the cholera shots had to be renewed about every 6 months, and recorded on my vaccination card.
Disease outbreaks were pretty common in the UK and Ireland in the 19th century (open sewers were a cause) – worst was during the potato famine in Ireland when typhus was rife there.
Typhoid also was one of the factors that ended the dominance of classical Athens – due to unhealthy sanitation – throwing slops and sewage out windows, etc.
These are the reasons why we have our current sewage and rubbish collection systems.
I imagine the 21st century viruses will result in preventive systems being developed, domestically, and in relation to overseas travel. Our border control systems will change long term. And probably we will end for good, hand shaking, travelling about town when sick, packing people like sardines into mass transport services, etc.
As a result of my experiences in my younger days, I take preventive measures seriously.
We didn't stop any of that after Sars, Mers and other sars virus that we don't hear of that were not so viable, and like all those with a bit of luck this Sars virus will die out too. It is mainly because it needs a host to remain viable and can only remain viable for hours or days at the most outside the human body. The problem will be if it can remain viable long term in those who are immune to it but so far that does not seem to be happening. It spread in Wuhan because it was given time to be hosted by thousands and spread worldwide within that time.
That is why all the talk is about breaking the chain. We are lucky here that this brilliantly led Government is taking the best advice possible and treating it with the respect it deserves unlike most of the incompetent right-wing dickheads in the rest of the world.
I am thinking of preventive measures to prevent further outbreaks of new viruses. I understand places like Sth Korea already had systems and resources in place after the initial SARS outbreak, focused on responding quickly to any new viruses that may arise. So they were able to respond quickly to Covid-19.
Exactly Carolyn, I don't think we thought this one would get this far but I'm pretty sure a certain level of preparedness is/was in place. The difference for this mongrels spread is that it is "silent "for up to five days or longer while being diffused through the community, which the experts don't think had been happened before in Sars like pathogens.
I'd like to think that the answer to it may lie in why others can seem to fight it off sometimes without even knowing it. I bet researchers are looking there already.
As I pointed out in that long post, that is part of the problem. From the viruses 'perspective' having the host running their immune system ‘hot’ or even dying on it while it is breeding is a bad bet.
From my reading on covid-19, the thing that causes most of the nasty symptoms and death appears to be your own immune systems trying to deal too strongly with an intruder too late. That is what gives you the really bad cough and sneeze reflexes to clear viruses out of the lungs. It is what causes the lung inflammation which appears to be the usual cause of death.
The elderly have on average more sluggish immune systems. They react much slower to bugs and viruses. Moreover their immune systems frequently overreact especially with lung inflammation.
Younger people without compromised immune systems are faster reacting to catch the invading virus and triggering the second tier of immune responses (ie past the initial layer of fever, coughing, and sneezing) earlier and preventing a build up of virus load.
Problem is that while some people may only be mildly symptomatic, they’re still trailing a trail of generated viruses for many days after their symptoms die down. Unfortunately that really just means that they’re more productive at breeding the virus because they will usually wind up infecting more unsuspecting people they come into contact with.
Imagine if Joyce and his cronies were still in charge? Or Bridges for that matter. Even when it's clear Australia, US and the UK have missed the boat we're still being told this sort of shit. Hopefully, when this is all over, the lunacy of the right will become apparent to the general population:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120649991/how-will-we-exit-the-lockdown
I don’t think you can dismiss what Steven Joyce has written as shit. The economic cost of this shutdown will be massive, and as usual those on lower incomes will be hardest hit. It will be almost as important as the timing of the start of the shutdown as when we decide to finish it, or scale it back.
These things do need to be considered fairly soon to have some sort of plan trying to get back to normal.
Sure, the timing of the end of the shutdown will be important, but Joyce is suggesting starting to open things up at the end of the four weeks unless it's clear things aren't improving – a slightly watered down version of what Trump's been saying up until his recent change of tone.
The innumerate Stephen Joyce?
No fan of Joyce but the article seems reasonably reasonable.
Pretty legal, you think?
I'm the same age as Lynn, by the way, but had much the same experiences as you.
My mother had polio during the epidemic. She was one of the fortunate ones. They both tell me how scary it was hearing about classmates dying.
Actually, on further thought I think I had the test and oral vaccination at secondary school – maybe 3rd form. So those of you a bit younger may have had them at primary school.
I think our parents went through some tough times in the 1920s-50s.
Staying a home, physical distancing, loss of income still probably very tolerable for many of us. As always, it is those on low incomes and with underlying health issues that we need to support. Let's hope the majority of the country step up to do that.
What seems to be lacking at the moment is any evidence of human immunity developing to covid-19. Without immunity we will continue to be hit again and again, and isolation efforts will only delay the inevitable.
Death is inevitable for all – in a Covid-19 context, delay has much to recommend it.
The fact that people are recovering means their immune systems are working and developing immunity.
What is unclear is how long that immunity lasts, and/or how quickly the virus evolves to the point of being able to re-infect someone that had previously developed immunity.
While it is indeed possible that we'll have to deal with repeating waves of equal (or worse) severity, what is far more likely is that some degree of immunity will develop and future waves will be less severe. It's also reasonably likely that with enough time vaccines and/or pharmaceutical therapies will be developed. Then the usual evolution trajectory for infectious diseases is to become less harmful – it's really not beneficial for an organism to kill its host.
This virus, like all coronaviruses, mutates and over time, it might become less harmful. In practice, this could mean that it will travel around the globe causing seasonal spikes in disease and deaths, just like ordinary flu.
Depends on the rate that covid-19 'mutates' (actually mostly how often it incorporates other species rna).
Influenza is a promiscuous as hell. So far the SARS-COV-x viruses don't appear to be.
Long may that continue…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120656955/eight-strains-of-the-coronavirus-are-circling-the-globe-theyre-giving-scientists-clues
A nice read, even for a non-science audience.
yeah it was a good article and a good site NextStrain.org
Try hitting the play button on… https://nextstrain.org/ncov
A charming tale.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Wise
From an historical perepective have a read of Pepys Diary during the plague years, 1665/1666
http://www.pepys.info/1665/plague.html
"I, for one, have absolutely no real interest in dying for tourism."
I think you're not alone in that sentiment. Even family members who work in the tourist industry are questioning its future viability/validity.
An interesting point raised in the book Justinian's Flea is the relationship of the rise of the plague, and a extended period of warmer temperatures. We are set for a very extended period of warmer temperatures, I don't like our prospects.
I also don't like our prospects of keeping isolation down here at the bottom of the south seas. We lack some basic industries to be isolated. My hope is out of this, we start building some self–sustaining industry here for ourselves.
I agree with DV Iprent, and thank you. It has clarified a lot of issues for a thick clod like myself.
Because of the lower numbers now entering the country why are they not all being tested. Are we ( the Government) that dim.
I can't speak for the government's reasoning, but for my reckons:
Detecting community transmission and stopping it is a big factor in determining when we can drop alert levels. We have limited testing resources, so it seems to make most sense to use it for detecting cases that transmitted within New Zealand, rather than wasting the resource on known risks that can be managed other ways.
Starting March 15 everyone coming in had been required to self-isolate for two weeks, prior to the four-week lockdown we now have. At the moment, that precaution appears more than adequate to ensure they won't spread any disease they had on arrival.
Andre I accept the importance of community testing but surely stopping them coming in is paramount. On the AM show this morning there was talk of a private company in NZ capable of supplying test kits and has been trying to get the Government to take some interest for two weeks. Without any luck to date. We all know some people just don’t self isolate don’t we Andre. We know the Government has its protocols but maybe they should look outside of their bubble.
This private company, are they the ones in joe90's first comment in today's Open Mike? https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-30-03-2020/#comment-1696221
Also, when it comes to arseholes that repay the privilege of being allowed back in the midst of a pandemic by breaking self-isolation, there's other ways of dealing with them. Personally I'm not averse to the idea of just shooting them, but I accept I'm probably out on the fringes of public opinion on that one. There’s still no need to further privilege them by wasting limited testing resources on all of them for the sake of finding the very few that are both infected and antisocial enough to break self-isolation.
What would be the purpose of testing them? Returning citizens either have a satisfactory self-isolation plan or are carted off to a dedicated quarantine hotel for two weeks, so if they have the virus that will be revealed by the isolation period. It therefore makes no sense to waste much-needed test kits on those people rather than putting them to good use pinning down community transmission.
Sorry PM but those who are supposedly self isolating would think twice about breaking ranks if a phone call came through with a positive. Just because you and I say we’re going to do this properly doesn’t mean everybody will. It’s my point of view and I can’t see why it’s a wasted test where you would also have their contact number and be able to reinforce the message if a positive turns up rather than trying to chase them up after the fact when they didn’t self isolate properly and put the community at risk.
New View – you seem to think the test is infallible. As I understand, during the early stage of infection, the test shows negative, It is not infallible. Isolation and time is a more valid test – the isolation just has to be enforced.
You are correct. For all tests, there is a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_and_specificity
No I don’t think the test is infallible’ I think it’s a big red light for those who might get a positive to be on super alert with their isolation. Those not displaying symptoms but positive might be tempted to push the isolation boundaries to the detriment of the community. If there is only a few hundred coming into the country on a daily basis wouldn’t you just test to be on the safe side and close one more door. Silly me for being overly careful.
Silly you. The isolation has to be enforced, and that is the only fail-proof test. Test kits which we are short of are needed more elsewhere. Obviously.
No 'safe side' at all as you conjecture.
As you will know it can’t be enforced in every case. I hope for our sakes it is enforced but can’t be. I personally know of returned friends that have isolated but only by chance. I won’t describe their complete circumstances but will say only that they live in a rural area and it was only their immediate family that reinforced the isolation. Other families may not be so lucky. The private company shown on the AM show could have supplied quick kits to the Government but they weren’t interested. Would have been fine for airport use even though slightly less accurate. I guess the Government knows best. 😔 🤪
Yes, they do and they made the right decision IMHO.
Yes it’s just your opinion as I have mine. You don’t explain why you think the Government have got this decision right.
Because it is a different type of test than the standard PCR-based one.
But don’t take my word for it, as you don’t know me, take the word of Dr Siouxsie Wiles: https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/31-03-2020/covid-19-what-difference-can-the-new-fast-turnaround-blood-tests-make/
I think that GPs are now testing, or getting tested, the people they think most likely to be Covid-19 positive. They need to be selective because the labs don't have the resources to test everyone. Testing of a sample of the general population should indicate the extent of community transmission, and likely hot spots.
When I had a phone consultation with a GP last Monday, I got that impression. I have a scratchy throat – more likely strep throat than the virus. She prescribed antibiotics.
I said I had been doing social/physical distancing as much as possible for the last few weeks, and hadn't had close contact with anyone in that period.
The GP said to self-isolate & stay away from other people just in case it's Covid-19. She said she wasn't going to get me tested for the virus – I don't have a fever or runny nose and feel fine. Also she said I'm a healthy 70 yr old without any underlying condition.
I haven't been out of my flat since then, except to put out rubbish & check the mailbox.
Aren't facts amazing – I don't why we bother with fiction:
Virus Wars – MRC LMB
www2.mrc-lmb.cam.ac.uk › viruswars › viruses
Every day you breathe in over 100,000,000 viruses. … Each antibody producing cell can produce 2000 antibody molecules per second. … by our white blood cells and are a major part of the body's response to combatting a viral infection.
For those who want all the nitty-gritty, in academic-speak (and it has coloured pics which make it easier to comprehend).
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.25685 Journal of Medical Virology (Free Access!)
Coronavirus infections and immune responses
(It includes quite a list a list of receptors – I think we should bring the Welcome doormat inside, myself. Then it goes on to Type 1 interferons, dendritic cells and defensins. This is the perfect link to swot up on so you can bat everyone else's mere opinions, with, seemingly, perfect authority!)
Evolution is relentless. The more one species exploits its environment the more other species will respond, die or exploit.
The fastest are microbial, fungi etc.
CVD19 just struck it lucky in evolutionary Lotto
The space humans have been taking over the planet is obviously unsustainable.
As we become extinct Ther are plenty of organisms available to exploit what is left.
WE ARE IN THIS ALL TOGETHER, (regardless of what boris trump and/or donald johnson have to say about it.
Evolution will out.
My grandmother walked with a brace her whole life because of polio. I got a shot.
i got rubella (german measles), I was kept away from school for a month, because everyone in NZ knew someone who knew someone who had had a child who had a birth defect because their mother had contracted it during pregnancy. Mothers kept us home because it could have been them, or us.
My kids got chicken pox literally the week before the vaccine became available – they might have shingles when they are old (but there is a vaccine).
The only reason we have anti-vaxxers is because we have forgotten all this – these are family stories we need to tell our kids, grandkids, etc so that no one forgets
I, for one, have absolutely no real interest in dying for tourism
We have had avalanche after avalanche of Tourism in recent years, the Faeces from which has been strewn freely the length and breadth of the country.
Somebody must have made $millions. But why were they allowed to bring huge overloads of visitors ?
When the Governments of the past 40 years should have been building State houses ! By now, the words "LandLord" and "Homeless" should have vanished from Aotearoa.
It would be nice if Kiwis who live here get to see their own Nation. At realistic Cost.