Polity: Herald poll

Written By: - Date published: 3:14 pm, June 17th, 2014 - 60 comments
Categories: election 2014, internet mana party, labour, maori party, national, polls - Tags: , , ,

polity_square_for_lynnRob Salmond at Polity looks at the Herald poll published this morning and looks at what ground the left has to make up. Over recent polls the right vote appears to have been consolidating more and more strongly behind National over the course of this year.

In your New Zealand Herald this morning:

The Internet-Mana Party would get two seats in Parliament based on the first major poll since the two parties cut a deal to stand together.

But, three months shy of the election, Labour is still struggling and the left bloc is well adrift from National, which could easily govern alone based on the Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The actual numbers are:

  • National 50.4%
  • Labour 30.5%
  • Greens 10.7%
  • NZ First 3.6%
  • Conservative 1.5%
  • Internet MANA 1.4%
  • Maori Party 0.8%
  • ACT 0.7%
  • United Future 0.1%

I’m not going to sugar-coat this. This is no comfort to the left, with solid left bloc stuck on around 41%, only rising to around 46% with a potential wider coalition of Internet MANA and New Zealand First. Even with either Danyl McLaughlin’s or Gavin White’s proposed corrections for (industry-wide) bias, National would likely still win.1 Also, and importantly, New Zealand media polls generally do not account for turnout effects.

Clare Trevett continues:

The results for the Mana Party, Internet Party and Internet-Mana Party totalled 1.4 per cent in the survey – a modest start for the newly launched party which was the centre of attention in the lead-up to the polling period.

That is enough to get new Internet Party leader Laila Harre into Parliament if Mana leader Hone Harawira holds his Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

I’m not sure about that. If Internet MANA stays on 1.4% and Annette Sykes wins Waiariki, then the delegation would be Harawira and Sykes, regardless of what happens in Te Tai Tokerau. Sykes performed strongly there in 2011 off the back of a truncated campaign. With the Maori party slipping nationally, I think she is a real threat to take the seat.

1. Under Danyl’s corrections, a National victory without Winston would be touch and go even today, and would rely on many and varied Cups of Tea. But my view is that these corrections are likely too extreme.

Also look at the bias corrected poll of polls at Dimpost and other poll of polls commentary at Occasionally erudite.

60 comments on “Polity: Herald poll ”

  1. Bifter 1

    How many left voters are telling pollsters that they are voting National in order to lull them into a false sense of security?
    I know that my friends and I have done this. Don’t lose heart comrades we are probably leading in the “official polls”.

    [lprent: Probably another idiot brairpatch astroturfer. ]

  2. Colonial Viper 2

    I’m not going to sugar-coat this. This is no comfort to the left, with solid left bloc stuck on around 41%, only rising to around 46% with a potential wider coalition of Internet MANA and New Zealand First.

    There are a whole 94 days to go before election day. Plenty of time to turn the narrative around and put some serious left leaning policy out there. Right?

    • Lanthanide 2.1

      Well the full advertising onslaught hasn’t even started yet.

    • infused 2.2

      Yes. The Kiwisaver one today was excellent. Hope they keep putting this policy out.

    • swordfish 2.3

      I disagree with a number of Rob’s points. In a few days, I’ll set out (on Sub-Zero Politics) the poll trends of 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 for all of the parties (and for the two Blocs) in order to highlight the degree to which parties were over/under-stated relative to their ultimate support in the subsequent Election. (I’ve done this on The Standard for the Nats and the Right but not, yet, for Labour/The Greens/NZ First/The Left Bloc). They’ll be more comprehensive than anything I’ve put on The Standard so far and I’m going to outline my theories (partly grounded in political science) to explain these very consistent patterns.

      The aim, then, is to test the arguments made not only by various Tories like Cameron Slater, Farrar, Chris73 and James (re: the relevance of the Cup of Tea saga for the Nats’ 2011 nose-dive) but also by Gavin White, Danyl McLaughlin and Rob Salmond regarding poll biases for the various parties. I’m going to try and provide a very comprehensive over-view.

      That’s Part 1. Following that, Part 2 will give a detailed over-view of the poll trends over the last two-and-a-half years to clarify precisely where we are at the moment (relative to both 2008, 2011 and 2012-2013). I’ll also have one or two things to say about Opinion Poll methodology.

      I’ll link to it on Open Mike once it’s ready (probably in about a week or so – depends on how much spare time’s available).

  3. Chooky 3

    Have to say this again sorry…NEVER trust the POLLS…they warp elections and make the faint hearted stay at home:

    Bugger the polls( the pollsters are not to be trusted or their polls…as Jim Bolger found out!)

    …and Winston always defies the polls…he will be BACK in or i will eat my cat!

    Winnie the darls will bring in a Left coalition government!

    …and John Key and the NACTS and Goldman Sachs will eat their hearts out

    • James 3.1

      “…and Winston always defies the polls…he will be BACK in or i will eat my cat!”

      Can we hold you to that?

      I hate cats.

      EDIT FWIIW – I think Winny has run his course. I know you can never write the guy off – But I think this might just be an election too far.

      edit 2: 4.85% of the vote would make me very happy tho’

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1

        It’s very important that you write Winston Peters off as history.

      • Chooky 3.1.2

        @ James ..the cat is a fast runner…but it is not worried because it is a Winnie supporter….. and it knows Winnie will be back! …the cat thinks it is a great joke ( a Winnie smile on the Cheshire Cat) …and you are a NAct Mad Hatter to think otherwise!…Winnie is stalking around the country….

  4. Will@Welly 4

    About time the Labour Caucus got off it’s fat ass!!
    The Greens, Internet/Mana are smart, one or two in the Labour Party are showing hope – Cunliffe, Parker, Little, but the rest (exception, Shearer, stuck in N.Y., working on ‘our’ bid for the Security Council) – where the hell are they?

  5. thechangeling 5

    The Roy Morgan Poll is the only consistently accurate poll over time that mirrors most closely election outcomes so why do we bother focusing on all the other polls which fluctuate to varying extents in their validity and inaccuracy? I guess it’s just plain interesting and/or tortuous.

    [lprent: Because it was a well written and interesting analysis, as were the two other links I provided. ]

    • AmaKiwi 5.1

      Personal opinion:

      We (the Left) have to damage John Key’s image.

      A friend (Nat supporter) told me the thing he likes about Key is “he’s so honest.”

      Despite years of lies, his public persona is of a genuinely honest chap.

      My personal regret is that I did not tell my friend I thought Key was the crookedest politician in living memory. My personal resolution is to never be silent again.

      Attack Key!

      • Gosman 5.1.1

        The opposition and specifically Labour have been attempting that for the past 7 years or so with little effect. Perhaps you should try another method.

        • Steve 5.1.1.1

          Totally agree – voters like Key despite the policies. The opposition either need to have something fatal to his reputation, say a serious crime with enoughevidence that results in him being charged with the offence or stop with the minor stuff that is not getting traction and if character attacks are to continue, instead pick off the rest of the Cabinet. At the same time, they also need to unify some of the policies so that a clear programme is shown e.g. by themselves CGT, Kiwibuild, variable Kiwisaver etc are not high impact, but together they have more impact that would be the case otherwise.

          • poem 5.1.1.1.1

            Well the voters didn’t like key that much, not only did he not get the support the polls were touting all through 2011 and despite a vote rigging cup of tea with the now defunct john banks, national did not govern alone either. Most NZers have not fared well in key’s second term and have taken a hammering. Personally, I dont think national will do as well as some like to think, particularly should more people turn up at the ballot box on Sept 20. Hoodwinking polls just might not work for john key this time round.

          • poem 5.1.1.1.2

            You got to wonder about those “polls” You know what’s interesting, David Cunliffe has thousands more people following him on twitter than john key and Judith Collins combined.

        • poem 5.1.1.2

          Well Gosman, it has helped that john key has always had the media onside to deflect and minimize damaging truths. You know, the funny thing about teflon is that eventually it wears off and then all manner of unsavoury things begin to stick.

          • McFlock 5.1.1.2.1

            not to mention 2 disasters and the RWC to play politics at. Fucking fluoro vests and hardhats…

            Not so much of that this time (touch wood)

          • Markymark 5.1.1.2.2

            Loony lefty, Poem, is really losing the plot with his latest nonsensical claim on Cunliffe vs John Key’s twitter followers.

            But to be fair this sort of behaviour is standard for most partisan half wits on this website, who claim that the last 6-7 statistical polls are rougue, simply because they show National on 47-50% and Labour on 30%.

            You people are largely deluded as to the support for the National government that is out there.
            It’s from people that work, pay a mortgage and have kids. Most are not well off, but are in the middle classes. The respect competence, hence are happy with National. In contrast, Labour is filled with incompetant trade unionist and student politican hacks who have no basic skillset outside of being a career politican

            Perhaps reality will only bite home for you people on September 20th, when Key will romp home to a third term

            • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.2.2.1

              But to be fair this sort of behaviour is standard for most partisan half wits on this website, who claim that the last 6-7 statistical polls are rougue, simply because they show National on 47-50%

              Hmmmm. National’s numbers are down 5% to 8% on 2011 figures. Surely that must concern you as a Righty?

              In contrast, Labour is filled with incompetant trade unionist and student politican hacks who have no basic skillset outside of being a career politican

              Do you mean career politicians like Bill English?Or are you talking about cigarette marketing skillsets a la Todd Barclay, Clutha Southland?

              • swordfish

                And why is it that Tory Tr*lls seemingly find it impossible to spell the word Rogue ?

                Both James and Nakiman were fairly wide of the mark on yesterday’s Open Mike by spelling it “Rouge” (possibly betraying a surreptitious belief that the latest Herald-Digi is in fact positive for the Red team) and now Markymark has a wild stab at it with “Rougue”.

                They’ll be learning to tell the time next.

                • McFlock

                  I always figured “rouge” was an intentional typo like “moran”.

                  Heck, I’ve used it myself, I believe 🙂

                  But the trouble with ironic mispellings is that they are often indistinguishable from genuine incompertance :p

                  • swordfish

                    Ahhh, I hadn’t thought of that.

                    Mind you, both James and Nakiman both agreed they’d unintentionally misspelt. Like me, they don’t do irony.

                    Here

              • Markymark

                Barlcay is a rarity in National – that being a wanabe careerist with no experience. In my opinion he should not have been selected, and it would be good if Clutha Southland voters reneged against him to keep him, out of parliament.

                In Labour, it cannot be doubted that career politicians dominate. Lets go through the list shall we: Robertson (future leader), Arden (alleged future leader), King, Goff, Mallard, Hipkins, Sepuloni, Cosgrove, David Clark, Ruth Dyson, Sue Moroney, Megan Woods, Clare Curran etc – it’s a large majority

            • poem 5.1.1.2.2.2

              You and James can’t read, I never said “followERS” I said “FOLLOWING’ and I find that a bit rich, commentary from john key cult followers like yourself are generally the most deluded and hypocritical, you never know, maybe its you who will get that much needed reality check on Sept 20.

      • chris73 5.1.2

        🙂

        • AmaKiwi 5.1.2.1

          I am not a political strategist, so this is shoot from the hip.

          What about a “negative campaign,” a relentless attack on your opponent. Forget about policies and idealism. Smear him day in and day out. His lies. His rich associates. His questionable dealings. His callousness to the needy and less fortunate. His personality defects.

          It’s not pretty. But I see the other side do it constantly.

          With 94 days to go, is it time to take the gloves off?

          • Colonial Viper 5.1.2.1.1

            Labour doesn’t have the skills to pull it off; the Tories are better at it and the Tories have the support of the MSM.

            But it certainly is time for the gloves to come off. Either Labour comes up with a clear left wing narrative and alternative vision for the country right now, backed by courageous and positive action, or it will struggle to achieve 32%-33% on Election Day.

            • blue leopard 5.1.2.1.1.1

              @ CV

              “…or it will struggle to achieve 32%-33% on Election Day.”

              According to Gavin White’s analysis (linked to in this posts article), I think it is fair to conclude Labour are already on at least 31% and this is prior to the election campaign proper. Why do you base your conclusions on the faith that the polls are fairly representing public opinion when there is plenty of evidence and analysis to prove otherwise?

              If the ‘trends’ keep up – i.e. Labour remains in the low 30 area – I suspect the biggest error Labour are making are coming across as antagonistic toward the other left-wing parties. and therefore I would suspect that is the area they could most easily improve their performance. That is, ‘if’ the trends keep up – in actual fact this poll is an improvement on the last ones for Labour so it isn’t conclusive that the aggressive approach some in Labour appear have taken re Mana/Int (maybe Greens too) is hurting them – suspect it is – but no real conclusive proof yet seeing as their polling has been recorded as slightly up from last one. (Actually this lift is within the margin of error isn’t it? So that means there is no statistical evidence of a lift in their rating at all.)

          • fdx 5.1.2.1.2

            I am surprised no one has had a go at knocking the bugger off, even with his entourage of security he is still an easy target.

            • Colonial Viper 5.1.2.1.2.1

              No suggestions of violence please, peaceful civil resistance only.

              • karol

                Agreed, CV. I think fdx is getting close to breaching the Standard policy – I think this may come under legal issues. i.e. threats of violence, or inciting people to violence.

                • swordfish

                  Perhaps fdx meant knocking the bugger off purely in the Edmund Hillary sense of the term ? The notion that we should be the first to climb Mt John Key, possibly establishing base-camp on the outer edge of his right nostril, pushing past the dark forest of his nasal hair, scaling the boney escarpment of the bridge of his nose and then making the final push past his right eyebrow and ultimately – with the help of an experienced Sherpa – on to the summit of his increasingly balding head.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    it’s the “even with his entourage of security…” which makes the meaning plain.

                    • swordfish

                      Yeah, I know. I shouldn’t have joked about it. Found myself shaking my head when I read his comment. Also found myself wondering if he’s one of the spooks assigned with the task of bringing the Left into disrepute.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      OK good point.

  6. fambo 6

    On the bright side, Labour has lifted to over 30 percent, and the Greens are still sitting above 10 percent despite being the most vulnerable to IMP. I like what Chris Trotter recently had to say on the subject which is very much worth reading in full

    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2014/06/keep-calm-and-carry-on-why-left-should.html

    “BRACE YOURSELVES, COMRADES, for some horrendous poll results. The next round of surveys ….will almost certainly register a major slump in the Centre Left’s support and a concomitant rise in National’s numbers – quite possibly to 55 percent-plus. Labour and the Greens will both take nasty hits and the Internet-Mana Party (IMP) will be very lucky to make it above 1 percent.

    ….The polls will be bad because the framing of Kim Dotcom’s latest intervention in New Zealand politics has been so near-universally and overwhelmingly negative….

    ….Labour and the Greens, simply by sharing the left of the ideological spectrum with the IMP, will be judged guilty by association with the controversial German entrepreneur…..

    ….They should think of the next round of polls as the Right’s all-or-nothing artillery barrage – something to panic them into a headlong retreat. But, as the shells loaded with appalling results burst over the heads, they should simply tighten their helmet-straps and hold tight.”

  7. Tracey 7

    note the use of the word “rort” in the survey. straight from john keys playbook.

    yesterday fizzy said this was going to be a roy morgan and bad news for the left. I asked him how he saw the results in advance. despite his dedication as a mental health professional to the truth he didnt say…knowing the heralds results in advance is more understandable…

    so paying for a poll and then writing a story is journalism at the herald

    • lprent 7.1

      The last RM was on the 6th? Wouldn’t expect another one until after the 20th.

      • veutoviper 7.1.1

        The last fortnightly RM was until 1 June, released about three days later, Therefore the next should cover the period, 2 – 15 June inclusive. So it should be out any day now. Perhaps today or tomorrow.

  8. Bill 8

    Again. 12.2% undecided. And, as previously stated in a similar discussion, most of that 12.2 % is likely to be undecided between one or other of the left leaning parties.

    But sure, this bullshit barrage of right leaning policy announcements from Labour under the guise of pragmatism has to end. I know they won’t reverse the tosh of raising the retirement age, or forcing workers to part with a portion of their earnings until after their extended working life has ended and they are maybe still alive – but they really need to come out with avowedly non-neo-liberal or neo-classical policies that have an immediate and direct impact on workers, now. And they need to roll them and keep putting people first from now on in. Otherwise their vote is assuredly gone and the right within the party will ascend on the back of a post election Labour Party disaster.

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      It seems to me that the Right in Labour IS ascendent.

      • Bill 8.1.1

        Well aye, there is that.

      • Bill 8.1.2

        It seems to me that the Right in Labour IS ascendent

        They are stirring. Like wee bastards. And this ‘analysis’ from Rob Salmond is a nice follow up to his rusty hatchet job of the other week.

        I fully believe that right wing elements within and outwith the Labour Party are ‘at it’ in an attempt to be rid of Cunliffe post-election in order to preserve a moribund, right leaning party and it’s equally moribund champions within caucus.

        Meanwhile, that poll. Put the 12.2% back into the calculations and you get 44% voting National, 36% voting Green/Labour alongside 12.2% being undecided. (I had to round the fcking numbers because as far as I can make out 91.5 people from 750 were undecided)

        So things don’t need ‘sugar coated’ (it’s an 8% gap)… and people really do need to get down to their local Labour electorate office meanwhile, and kick some wee pricks in the head until said wee pricks pull their fcking heads right in.

  9. Blue 9

    Herald DodgyPolls are garbage. Statistically they’re not even worth doing. But the Herald keeps on desperately plugging them.

    The editorial this morning was good for a laugh – ‘but why doesn’t National think they can win an outright majority? Three of the dodgiest polls in the country say they can! Three dodgy polls can’t be wrong!’

  10. fisiani 10

    It will be very close in September. Will the Greens be able to form a government with NZF, Internet Mana and Labour? Who knows? Would it be stable and effective? No way.Is that what people want? Of course not. For 20 years we have had MMP and each time we got a government that NO ONE voted for. Time for a strong majority government that also incorporates willing support parties and is around for another four or five terms.

    • Steve Reeves 10.1

      Man…how hard is it to understand?

      The House represents the people’s choices, and pretty faithfully under MMP (and very much less so under FPP).

      Once the House is constituted to follow the voting of the people, those elected thrash out who governs.

      Is the current government, with National, ACT, UF and MP (oh look! four of them…just like your example) stable and effective. Well, yes, clearly they are since they have got a lot of what they each want into law.

      And…a government being around for four or five terms doesn’t (why should it?) = a good government. It simply reflects, probably, an undemocratic voting system.

  11. john 11

    The problem Labour has is a vote for them, is a vote for the seven headed monster.

    What centre voters want Crim Dotcon and the “don’t like pakeha” party.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      Yes much better with Colin “Moon Lander” Craig.

      At least Winston Peters and Laila Harre are experienced Cabinet Ministers, and Harawira is a seasoned fighting MP. The Greens will be a major block with ~20 MPs, most already experienced. Bonus: they are not Area 51 chem trailing conspiracy theorists.

      • fisiani 11.1.1

        Have you got a link to any site where Colin Craig actually states that he agrees with the various conspiracy theories. My reading is that he somewhat naively stated that cannot rule any conspiracy out. That is not the same as saying he believes them.
        20 MP’s equates to 18% ie double current polling.

        • weizguy 11.1.1.1

          He didn’t say he agreed with the conpiracy theories, he merely demonstrated his inability to distinguish truth from fiction. Craig’s position on Chemtrails and the moon-landing point to a dangerous style of thinking. It’s the “well if someone disagrees with the generally accepted scientific consensus, there must be a real controversy here…” Essentially, he’s gullible.

          He’s welcome to make himself sound silly by lending some credence to conspiracy theories, but I worry about him becoming part of the next government and advocating for science teachers to start “teaching the controversy” that creationists/intelligent design proponents claim exists.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 11.2

      The problem John has is that everything he says is a frail pastiche of someone else’s material. He hasn’t had a single original thought since he arrived here. Feeble.

  12. john 12

    Ah – there’s my abusive stalker at work again.

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