Polity: Herald poll

Written By: - Date published: 3:14 pm, June 17th, 2014 - 60 comments
Categories: election 2014, internet mana party, labour, maori party, national, polls - Tags: , , ,

polity_square_for_lynnRob Salmond at Polity looks at the Herald poll published this morning and looks at what ground the left has to make up. Over recent polls the right vote appears to have been consolidating more and more strongly behind National over the course of this year.

In your New Zealand Herald this morning:

The Internet-Mana Party would get two seats in Parliament based on the first major poll since the two parties cut a deal to stand together.

But, three months shy of the election, Labour is still struggling and the left bloc is well adrift from National, which could easily govern alone based on the Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The actual numbers are:

  • National 50.4%
  • Labour 30.5%
  • Greens 10.7%
  • NZ First 3.6%
  • Conservative 1.5%
  • Internet MANA 1.4%
  • Maori Party 0.8%
  • ACT 0.7%
  • United Future 0.1%

I’m not going to sugar-coat this. This is no comfort to the left, with solid left bloc stuck on around 41%, only rising to around 46% with a potential wider coalition of Internet MANA and New Zealand First. Even with either Danyl McLaughlin’s or Gavin White’s proposed corrections for (industry-wide) bias, National would likely still win.1 Also, and importantly, New Zealand media polls generally do not account for turnout effects.

Clare Trevett continues:

The results for the Mana Party, Internet Party and Internet-Mana Party totalled 1.4 per cent in the survey – a modest start for the newly launched party which was the centre of attention in the lead-up to the polling period.

That is enough to get new Internet Party leader Laila Harre into Parliament if Mana leader Hone Harawira holds his Te Tai Tokerau electorate.

I’m not sure about that. If Internet MANA stays on 1.4% and Annette Sykes wins Waiariki, then the delegation would be Harawira and Sykes, regardless of what happens in Te Tai Tokerau. Sykes performed strongly there in 2011 off the back of a truncated campaign. With the Maori party slipping nationally, I think she is a real threat to take the seat.

1. Under Danyl’s corrections, a National victory without Winston would be touch and go even today, and would rely on many and varied Cups of Tea. But my view is that these corrections are likely too extreme.

Also look at the bias corrected poll of polls at Dimpost and other poll of polls commentary at Occasionally erudite.

60 comments on “Polity: Herald poll ”

  1. Bifter 1

    How many left voters are telling pollsters that they are voting National in order to lull them into a false sense of security?
    I know that my friends and I have done this. Don’t lose heart comrades we are probably leading in the “official polls”.

    [lprent: Probably another idiot brairpatch astroturfer. ]

  2. Colonial Viper 2

    I’m not going to sugar-coat this. This is no comfort to the left, with solid left bloc stuck on around 41%, only rising to around 46% with a potential wider coalition of Internet MANA and New Zealand First.

    There are a whole 94 days to go before election day. Plenty of time to turn the narrative around and put some serious left leaning policy out there. Right?

    • Lanthanide 2.1

      Well the full advertising onslaught hasn’t even started yet.

    • infused 2.2

      Yes. The Kiwisaver one today was excellent. Hope they keep putting this policy out.

    • swordfish 2.3

      I disagree with a number of Rob’s points. In a few days, I’ll set out (on Sub-Zero Politics) the poll trends of 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 for all of the parties (and for the two Blocs) in order to highlight the degree to which parties were over/under-stated relative to their ultimate support in the subsequent Election. (I’ve done this on The Standard for the Nats and the Right but not, yet, for Labour/The Greens/NZ First/The Left Bloc). They’ll be more comprehensive than anything I’ve put on The Standard so far and I’m going to outline my theories (partly grounded in political science) to explain these very consistent patterns.

      The aim, then, is to test the arguments made not only by various Tories like Cameron Slater, Farrar, Chris73 and James (re: the relevance of the Cup of Tea saga for the Nats’ 2011 nose-dive) but also by Gavin White, Danyl McLaughlin and Rob Salmond regarding poll biases for the various parties. I’m going to try and provide a very comprehensive over-view.

      That’s Part 1. Following that, Part 2 will give a detailed over-view of the poll trends over the last two-and-a-half years to clarify precisely where we are at the moment (relative to both 2008, 2011 and 2012-2013). I’ll also have one or two things to say about Opinion Poll methodology.

      I’ll link to it on Open Mike once it’s ready (probably in about a week or so – depends on how much spare time’s available).

  3. Chooky 3

    Have to say this again sorry…NEVER trust the POLLS…they warp elections and make the faint hearted stay at home:

    Bugger the polls( the pollsters are not to be trusted or their polls…as Jim Bolger found out!)

    …and Winston always defies the polls…he will be BACK in or i will eat my cat!

    Winnie the darls will bring in a Left coalition government!

    …and John Key and the NACTS and Goldman Sachs will eat their hearts out

    • James 3.1

      “…and Winston always defies the polls…he will be BACK in or i will eat my cat!”

      Can we hold you to that?

      I hate cats.

      EDIT FWIIW – I think Winny has run his course. I know you can never write the guy off – But I think this might just be an election too far.

      edit 2: 4.85% of the vote would make me very happy tho’

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1

        It’s very important that you write Winston Peters off as history.

      • Chooky 3.1.2

        @ James ..the cat is a fast runner…but it is not worried because it is a Winnie supporter….. and it knows Winnie will be back! …the cat thinks it is a great joke ( a Winnie smile on the Cheshire Cat) …and you are a NAct Mad Hatter to think otherwise!…Winnie is stalking around the country….

  4. Will@Welly 4

    About time the Labour Caucus got off it’s fat ass!!
    The Greens, Internet/Mana are smart, one or two in the Labour Party are showing hope – Cunliffe, Parker, Little, but the rest (exception, Shearer, stuck in N.Y., working on ‘our’ bid for the Security Council) – where the hell are they?

  5. thechangeling 5

    The Roy Morgan Poll is the only consistently accurate poll over time that mirrors most closely election outcomes so why do we bother focusing on all the other polls which fluctuate to varying extents in their validity and inaccuracy? I guess it’s just plain interesting and/or tortuous.

    [lprent: Because it was a well written and interesting analysis, as were the two other links I provided. ]

    • AmaKiwi 5.1

      Personal opinion:

      We (the Left) have to damage John Key’s image.

      A friend (Nat supporter) told me the thing he likes about Key is “he’s so honest.”

      Despite years of lies, his public persona is of a genuinely honest chap.

      My personal regret is that I did not tell my friend I thought Key was the crookedest politician in living memory. My personal resolution is to never be silent again.

      Attack Key!

      • Gosman 5.1.1

        The opposition and specifically Labour have been attempting that for the past 7 years or so with little effect. Perhaps you should try another method.

        • Steve 5.1.1.1

          Totally agree – voters like Key despite the policies. The opposition either need to have something fatal to his reputation, say a serious crime with enoughevidence that results in him being charged with the offence or stop with the minor stuff that is not getting traction and if character attacks are to continue, instead pick off the rest of the Cabinet. At the same time, they also need to unify some of the policies so that a clear programme is shown e.g. by themselves CGT, Kiwibuild, variable Kiwisaver etc are not high impact, but together they have more impact that would be the case otherwise.

          • poem 5.1.1.1.1

            Well the voters didn’t like key that much, not only did he not get the support the polls were touting all through 2011 and despite a vote rigging cup of tea with the now defunct john banks, national did not govern alone either. Most NZers have not fared well in key’s second term and have taken a hammering. Personally, I dont think national will do as well as some like to think, particularly should more people turn up at the ballot box on Sept 20. Hoodwinking polls just might not work for john key this time round.

          • poem 5.1.1.1.2

            You got to wonder about those “polls” You know what’s interesting, David Cunliffe has thousands more people following him on twitter than john key and Judith Collins combined.

        • poem 5.1.1.2

          Well Gosman, it has helped that john key has always had the media onside to deflect and minimize damaging truths. You know, the funny thing about teflon is that eventually it wears off and then all manner of unsavoury things begin to stick.

          • McFlock 5.1.1.2.1

            not to mention 2 disasters and the RWC to play politics at. Fucking fluoro vests and hardhats…

            Not so much of that this time (touch wood)

          • Markymark 5.1.1.2.2

            Loony lefty, Poem, is really losing the plot with his latest nonsensical claim on Cunliffe vs John Key’s twitter followers.

            But to be fair this sort of behaviour is standard for most partisan half wits on this website, who claim that the last 6-7 statistical polls are rougue, simply because they show National on 47-50% and Labour on 30%.

            You people are largely deluded as to the support for the National government that is out there.
            It’s from people that work, pay a mortgage and have kids. Most are not well off, but are in the middle classes. The respect competence, hence are happy with National. In contrast, Labour is filled with incompetant trade unionist and student politican hacks who have no basic skillset outside of being a career politican

            Perhaps reality will only bite home for you people on September 20th, when Key will romp home to a third term

            • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.2.2.1

              But to be fair this sort of behaviour is standard for most partisan half wits on this website, who claim that the last 6-7 statistical polls are rougue, simply because they show National on 47-50%

              Hmmmm. National’s numbers are down 5% to 8% on 2011 figures. Surely that must concern you as a Righty?

              In contrast, Labour is filled with incompetant trade unionist and student politican hacks who have no basic skillset outside of being a career politican

              Do you mean career politicians like Bill English?Or are you talking about cigarette marketing skillsets a la Todd Barclay, Clutha Southland?

              • swordfish

                And why is it that Tory Tr*lls seemingly find it impossible to spell the word Rogue ?

                Both James and Nakiman were fairly wide of the mark on yesterday’s Open Mike by spelling it “Rouge” (possibly betraying a surreptitious belief that the latest Herald-Digi is in fact positive for the Red team) and now Markymark has a wild stab at it with “Rougue”.

                They’ll be learning to tell the time next.

                • McFlock

                  I always figured “rouge” was an intentional typo like “moran”.

                  Heck, I’ve used it myself, I believe 🙂

                  But the trouble with ironic mispellings is that they are often indistinguishable from genuine incompertance :p

                  • swordfish

                    Ahhh, I hadn’t thought of that.

                    Mind you, both James and Nakiman both agreed they’d unintentionally misspelt. Like me, they don’t do irony.

                    Here

              • Markymark

                Barlcay is a rarity in National – that being a wanabe careerist with no experience. In my opinion he should not have been selected, and it would be good if Clutha Southland voters reneged against him to keep him, out of parliament.

                In Labour, it cannot be doubted that career politicians dominate. Lets go through the list shall we: Robertson (future leader), Arden (alleged future leader), King, Goff, Mallard, Hipkins, Sepuloni, Cosgrove, David Clark, Ruth Dyson, Sue Moroney, Megan Woods, Clare Curran etc – it’s a large majority

            • poem 5.1.1.2.2.2

              You and James can’t read, I never said “followERS” I said “FOLLOWING’ and I find that a bit rich, commentary from john key cult followers like yourself are generally the most deluded and hypocritical, you never know, maybe its you who will get that much needed reality check on Sept 20.

      • chris73 5.1.2

        🙂

        • AmaKiwi 5.1.2.1

          I am not a political strategist, so this is shoot from the hip.

          What about a “negative campaign,” a relentless attack on your opponent. Forget about policies and idealism. Smear him day in and day out. His lies. His rich associates. His questionable dealings. His callousness to the needy and less fortunate. His personality defects.

          It’s not pretty. But I see the other side do it constantly.

          With 94 days to go, is it time to take the gloves off?

          • Colonial Viper 5.1.2.1.1

            Labour doesn’t have the skills to pull it off; the Tories are better at it and the Tories have the support of the MSM.

            But it certainly is time for the gloves to come off. Either Labour comes up with a clear left wing narrative and alternative vision for the country right now, backed by courageous and positive action, or it will struggle to achieve 32%-33% on Election Day.

            • blue leopard 5.1.2.1.1.1

              @ CV

              “…or it will struggle to achieve 32%-33% on Election Day.”

              According to Gavin White’s analysis (linked to in this posts article), I think it is fair to conclude Labour are already on at least 31% and this is prior to the election campaign proper. Why do you base your conclusions on the faith that the polls are fairly representing public opinion when there is plenty of evidence and analysis to prove otherwise?

              If the ‘trends’ keep up – i.e. Labour remains in the low 30 area – I suspect the biggest error Labour are making are coming across as antagonistic toward the other left-wing parties. and therefore I would suspect that is the area they could most easily improve their performance. That is, ‘if’ the trends keep up – in actual fact this poll is an improvement on the last ones for Labour so it isn’t conclusive that the aggressive approach some in Labour appear have taken re Mana/Int (maybe Greens too) is hurting them – suspect it is – but no real conclusive proof yet seeing as their polling has been recorded as slightly up from last one. (Actually this lift is within the margin of error isn’t it? So that means there is no statistical evidence of a lift in their rating at all.)

          • fdx 5.1.2.1.2

            I am surprised no one has had a go at knocking the bugger off, even with his entourage of security he is still an easy target.

            • Colonial Viper 5.1.2.1.2.1

              No suggestions of violence please, peaceful civil resistance only.

              • karol

                Agreed, CV. I think fdx is getting close to breaching the Standard policy – I think this may come under legal issues. i.e. threats of violence, or inciting people to violence.

                • swordfish

                  Perhaps fdx meant knocking the bugger off purely in the Edmund Hillary sense of the term ? The notion that we should be the first to climb Mt John Key, possibly establishing base-camp on the outer edge of his right nostril, pushing past the dark forest of his nasal hair, scaling the boney escarpment of the bridge of his nose and then making the final push past his right eyebrow and ultimately – with the help of an experienced Sherpa – on to the summit of his increasingly balding head.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    it’s the “even with his entourage of security…” which makes the meaning plain.

                    • swordfish

                      Yeah, I know. I shouldn’t have joked about it. Found myself shaking my head when I read his comment. Also found myself wondering if he’s one of the spooks assigned with the task of bringing the Left into disrepute.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      OK good point.

  6. fambo 6

    On the bright side, Labour has lifted to over 30 percent, and the Greens are still sitting above 10 percent despite being the most vulnerable to IMP. I like what Chris Trotter recently had to say on the subject which is very much worth reading in full

    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.co.nz/2014/06/keep-calm-and-carry-on-why-left-should.html

    “BRACE YOURSELVES, COMRADES, for some horrendous poll results. The next round of surveys ….will almost certainly register a major slump in the Centre Left’s support and a concomitant rise in National’s numbers – quite possibly to 55 percent-plus. Labour and the Greens will both take nasty hits and the Internet-Mana Party (IMP) will be very lucky to make it above 1 percent.

    ….The polls will be bad because the framing of Kim Dotcom’s latest intervention in New Zealand politics has been so near-universally and overwhelmingly negative….

    ….Labour and the Greens, simply by sharing the left of the ideological spectrum with the IMP, will be judged guilty by association with the controversial German entrepreneur…..

    ….They should think of the next round of polls as the Right’s all-or-nothing artillery barrage – something to panic them into a headlong retreat. But, as the shells loaded with appalling results burst over the heads, they should simply tighten their helmet-straps and hold tight.”

  7. Tracey 7

    note the use of the word “rort” in the survey. straight from john keys playbook.

    yesterday fizzy said this was going to be a roy morgan and bad news for the left. I asked him how he saw the results in advance. despite his dedication as a mental health professional to the truth he didnt say…knowing the heralds results in advance is more understandable…

    so paying for a poll and then writing a story is journalism at the herald

    • lprent 7.1

      The last RM was on the 6th? Wouldn’t expect another one until after the 20th.

      • veutoviper 7.1.1

        The last fortnightly RM was until 1 June, released about three days later, Therefore the next should cover the period, 2 – 15 June inclusive. So it should be out any day now. Perhaps today or tomorrow.

  8. Bill 8

    Again. 12.2% undecided. And, as previously stated in a similar discussion, most of that 12.2 % is likely to be undecided between one or other of the left leaning parties.

    But sure, this bullshit barrage of right leaning policy announcements from Labour under the guise of pragmatism has to end. I know they won’t reverse the tosh of raising the retirement age, or forcing workers to part with a portion of their earnings until after their extended working life has ended and they are maybe still alive – but they really need to come out with avowedly non-neo-liberal or neo-classical policies that have an immediate and direct impact on workers, now. And they need to roll them and keep putting people first from now on in. Otherwise their vote is assuredly gone and the right within the party will ascend on the back of a post election Labour Party disaster.

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      It seems to me that the Right in Labour IS ascendent.

      • Bill 8.1.1

        Well aye, there is that.

      • Bill 8.1.2

        It seems to me that the Right in Labour IS ascendent

        They are stirring. Like wee bastards. And this ‘analysis’ from Rob Salmond is a nice follow up to his rusty hatchet job of the other week.

        I fully believe that right wing elements within and outwith the Labour Party are ‘at it’ in an attempt to be rid of Cunliffe post-election in order to preserve a moribund, right leaning party and it’s equally moribund champions within caucus.

        Meanwhile, that poll. Put the 12.2% back into the calculations and you get 44% voting National, 36% voting Green/Labour alongside 12.2% being undecided. (I had to round the fcking numbers because as far as I can make out 91.5 people from 750 were undecided)

        So things don’t need ‘sugar coated’ (it’s an 8% gap)… and people really do need to get down to their local Labour electorate office meanwhile, and kick some wee pricks in the head until said wee pricks pull their fcking heads right in.

  9. Blue 9

    Herald DodgyPolls are garbage. Statistically they’re not even worth doing. But the Herald keeps on desperately plugging them.

    The editorial this morning was good for a laugh – ‘but why doesn’t National think they can win an outright majority? Three of the dodgiest polls in the country say they can! Three dodgy polls can’t be wrong!’

  10. fisiani 10

    It will be very close in September. Will the Greens be able to form a government with NZF, Internet Mana and Labour? Who knows? Would it be stable and effective? No way.Is that what people want? Of course not. For 20 years we have had MMP and each time we got a government that NO ONE voted for. Time for a strong majority government that also incorporates willing support parties and is around for another four or five terms.

    • Steve Reeves 10.1

      Man…how hard is it to understand?

      The House represents the people’s choices, and pretty faithfully under MMP (and very much less so under FPP).

      Once the House is constituted to follow the voting of the people, those elected thrash out who governs.

      Is the current government, with National, ACT, UF and MP (oh look! four of them…just like your example) stable and effective. Well, yes, clearly they are since they have got a lot of what they each want into law.

      And…a government being around for four or five terms doesn’t (why should it?) = a good government. It simply reflects, probably, an undemocratic voting system.

  11. john 11

    The problem Labour has is a vote for them, is a vote for the seven headed monster.

    What centre voters want Crim Dotcon and the “don’t like pakeha” party.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      Yes much better with Colin “Moon Lander” Craig.

      At least Winston Peters and Laila Harre are experienced Cabinet Ministers, and Harawira is a seasoned fighting MP. The Greens will be a major block with ~20 MPs, most already experienced. Bonus: they are not Area 51 chem trailing conspiracy theorists.

      • fisiani 11.1.1

        Have you got a link to any site where Colin Craig actually states that he agrees with the various conspiracy theories. My reading is that he somewhat naively stated that cannot rule any conspiracy out. That is not the same as saying he believes them.
        20 MP’s equates to 18% ie double current polling.

        • weizguy 11.1.1.1

          He didn’t say he agreed with the conpiracy theories, he merely demonstrated his inability to distinguish truth from fiction. Craig’s position on Chemtrails and the moon-landing point to a dangerous style of thinking. It’s the “well if someone disagrees with the generally accepted scientific consensus, there must be a real controversy here…” Essentially, he’s gullible.

          He’s welcome to make himself sound silly by lending some credence to conspiracy theories, but I worry about him becoming part of the next government and advocating for science teachers to start “teaching the controversy” that creationists/intelligent design proponents claim exists.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 11.2

      The problem John has is that everything he says is a frail pastiche of someone else’s material. He hasn’t had a single original thought since he arrived here. Feeble.

  12. john 12

    Ah – there’s my abusive stalker at work again.

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    Treasury staff at work: The demand for a new 12-year Government bond was so strong, Treasury decided to double the amount of bonds it sold. Photo: Lynn GrievesonMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, September ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 6-September-2024

    Welcome to another Friday and another roundup of stories that caught our eye this week. As always, this and every post is brought to you by the Greater Auckland crew. If you like our work and you’d like to see more of it, we invite you to join our regular ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies; Excerpt Four.

    Internal versus external security. Regardless of who rules, large countries can afford to separate external and internal security functions (even if internal control functions predominate under authoritarian regimes). In fact, given the logic of power concentration and institutional centralization of … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • A Hole In The River

    There's a hole in the river where her memory liesFrom the land of the living to the air and skyShe was coming to see him, but something changed her mindDrove her down to the riverThere is no returnSongwriters: Neil Finn/Eddie RaynerThe king is dead; long live the queen!Yesterday was a ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Bright Blue His Jacket Ain’t But I Love This Fellow: A Review and Analysis of The Rings of Power E...

    My conclusion last week was that The Rings of Power season two represented a major improvement in the series. The writing’s just so much better, and honestly, its major problems are less the result of the current episodes and more creatures arising from season one plot-holes. I found episode three ...
    4 days ago
  • Who should we thank for the defeat of the Nazis

    As a child in the 1950s, I thought the British had won the Second World War because that’s what all our comics said. Later on, the films and comics told me that the Americans won the war. In my late teens, I found out that the Soviet Union ...
    4 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2024

    Open access notables Diurnal Temperature Range Trends Differ Below and Above the Melting Point, Pithan & Schatt, Geophysical Research Letters: The globally averaged diurnal temperature range (DTR) has shrunk since the mid-20th century, and climate models project further shrinking. Observations indicate a slowdown or reversal of this trend in recent decades. ...
    4 days ago
  • Media Link: Discussing the NZSIS Security Threat Report.

    I was interviewed by Mike Hosking at NewstalkZB and a few other media outlets about the NZSIS Security Threat Report released recently. I have long advocated for more transparency, accountability and oversight of the NZ Intelligence Community, and although the … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • How do I make this better for people who drive Ford Rangers?

    Home, home again to a long warm embrace. Plenty of reasons to be glad to be back.But also, reasons for dejection.You, yes you, Simeon Brown, you odious little oik, you bible thumping petrol-pandering ratfucker weasel. You would be Reason Number One. Well, maybe first among equals with Seymour and Of-Seymour ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • A missed opportunity

    The government introduced a pretty big piece of constitutional legislation today: the Parliament Bill. But rather than the contentious constitutional change (four year terms) pushed by Labour, this merely consolidates the existing legislation covering Parliament - currently scattered across four different Acts - into one piece of legislation. While I ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Nicola Willis Seeks New Sidekick To Help Fix NZ’s Economy

    Synopsis:Nicola Willis is seeking a new Treasury Boss after Dr Caralee McLiesh’s tenure ends this month. She didn’t listen to McLiesh. Will she listen to the new one?And why is Atlas Network’s Taxpayers Union chiming in?Please consider subscribing or supporting my work. Thanks, Tui.About CaraleeAt the beginning of July, Newsroom ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Inflation alive and kicking in our land of the long white monopolies

    The golden days of profit continue for the the Foodstuffs (Pak’n’Save and New World) and Woolworths supermarket duopoly. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, September 5:The Groceries Commissioner has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The thermodynamics of electric vs. internal combustion cars

    This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler I love thermodynamics. Thermodynamics is like your mom: it may not tell you what you can do, but it damn well tells you what you can’t do. I’ve written a few previous posts that include thermodynamics, like one on air capture of ...
    5 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt Three.

    The notion of geopolitical  “periphery.” The concept of periphery used here refers strictly to what can be called the geopolitical periphery. Being on the geopolitical periphery is an analytic virtue because it makes for more visible policy reform in response … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Venus Hum

    Fill me up with soundThe world sings with me a million smiles an hourI can see me dancing on my radioI can hear you singing in the blades of grassYellow dandelions on my way to schoolBig Beautiful Sky!Song: Venus Hum.Good morning, all you lovely people, and welcome to the 700th ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • I Went to a Creed Concert

    Note: The audio attached to this Webworm compliments today’s newsletter. I collected it as I met people attending a Creed concert. Their opinions may differ to mine. Read more ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • Government migration policy backfires; thousands of unemployed nurses

    The country has imported literally thousands of nurses over the past few months yet whether they are being employed as nurses is another matter. Just what is going on with HealthNZ and it nurses is, at best, opaque, in that it will not release anything but broad general statistics and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • A Time For Unity.

    Emotional Response: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon addresses mourners at the tangi of King Tuheitia on Turangawaewae Marae on Saturday, 31 August 2024.THE DEATH OF KING TUHEITIA could hardly have come at a worse time for Maoridom. The power of the Kingitanga to unify te iwi Māori was demonstrated powerfully at January’s ...
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Failed again

    National's tax cut policies relied on stealing revenue from the ETS (previously used to fund emissions reduction) to fund tax cuts to landlords. So how's that going? Badly. Today's auction failed again, with zero units (of a possible 7.6 million) sold. Which means they have a $456 million hole in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt Two.

    A question of size. Small size generally means large vulnerability. The perception of threat is broader and often more immediate for small countries. The feeling of comparative weakness, of exposure to risk, and of potential intimidation by larger powers often … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Nicola Willis’s Very Unserious Bungling of the Kiwirail Interislander Cancellation

    Open to all with kind thanks to all subscribers and supporters.Today, RNZ revealed that despite MFAT advice to Nicola Willis to be very “careful and deliberate” in her communications with the South Korean government, prior to any public announcement on cancelling Kiwirail’s i-Rex, Willis instead told South Korea 26 minutes ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Satisfying the Minister’s Speed Obsession

    The Minister of Transport’s speed obsession has this week resulted in two new consultations for 110km/h speed limits, one in Auckland and one in Christchurch. There has also been final approval of the Kapiti Expressway to move to 110km/h following an earlier consultation. While the changes will almost certainly see ...
    6 days ago
  • What if we freed up our streets, again?

    This guest post is by Tommy de Silva, a local rangatahi and freelance writer who is passionate about making the urban fabric of Tāmaki Makaurau-Auckland more people-focused and sustainable. New Zealand’s March-April 2020 Level 4 Covid response (aka “lockdown”) was somehow both the best and worst six weeks of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    6 days ago
  • No Alarms And No Surprises

    A heart that's full up like a landfillA job that slowly kills youBruises that won't healYou look so tired, unhappyBring down the governmentThey don't, they don't speak for usI'll take a quiet lifeA handshake of carbon monoxideAnd no alarms and no surprisesThe fabulous English comedian Stewart Lee once wrote a ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Five ingenious ways people could beat the heat without cranking the AC

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Daisy Simmons Every summer brings a new spate of headlines about record-breaking heat – for good reason: 2023 was the hottest year on record, in keeping with the upward trend scientists have been clocking for decades. With climate forecasts suggesting that heat waves ...
    6 days ago
  • No new funding for cycling & walking

    Studies show each $1 of spending on walking and cycling infrastructure produces $13 to $35 of economic benefits from higher productivity, lower healthcare costs, less congestion, lower emissions and lower fossil fuel import costs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • 99

    Dad turned 99 today.Hell of a lot of candles, eh?He won't be alone for his birthday. He will have the warm attention of my brother, and my sister, and everyone at the rest home, the most thoughtful attentive and considerate people you could ever know. On Saturday there will be ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Open Government: National reneges on beneficial ownership

    One of the achievements of the New Zealand’s Open Government Partnership Fourth National Action Plan was a formal commitment from the government to establish a public beneficial ownership register. Such a register would allow the ultimate owners of companies to be identified - a vital measure in preventing corruption, money ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt One.

    This project analyzes security politics in three peripheral democracies (Chile, New Zealand, Portugal) during the 30 years after the end of the Cold War. It argues that changes in the geopolitical landscape and geo-strategic context are interpreted differently by small … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago
  • Tea and Toast

    When the skies are looking bad my dearAnd your heart's lost all its hopeAfter dawn there will be sunshineAnd all the dust will goThe skies will clear my darlingNow it's time for you to let goOur girl will wake you up in the mornin'With some tea and toastLyrics: Lucy Spraggan.Good ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • NLTP 2024 released – destroying pipeline of shovel ready local projects

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Waka Kotahi yesterday released the latest National Land Transport Plan (NLTP) for 2024-27. The NLTP sets out what transport projects will be funded for the next three years, including both central and local government projects. As expected given the government’s extremely ideological transport policy, it’s ...
    7 days ago
  • Can Brown deliver his roads

    The Government’s unveiling of its road-building programme yesterday was ambitious and, many would say, long overdue. But the question will be whether it is too ambitious, whether it is affordable, and, if not, what might be dropped. The big ticket items will be the 17 so-called Roads of National Significance. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago
  • New paper about detecting climate misinformation on Twitter/X

    Together with Cristian Rojas, Frank Algra-Maschio, Mark Andrejevic, Travis Coan, and Yuan-Fang Li, I just published a paper in Nature Communications Earth & Environment where we use the Computer Assisted Recognition of Denial and Skepticism (CARDS) machine learning model to detect climate misinformation in 5 million climate tweets. We find over half ...
    1 week ago
  • Excerpting “Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies.”

    In the late 2000s-early 2010s I was researching and writing a book titled “Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Chile, New Zealand and Portugal.” The book was a cross-regional Small-N qualitative comparison of the security strategies and postures of three small … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Hating for the Wrong Reasons: Of Rings of Power, Orcs and Evil

    A few months ago, my fellow countryman, HelloFutureMe, put out a giant YouTube video, dissecting what went wrong with the first season of Rings of Power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ6FRUO0ui0&t=8376s). It’s an exceptionally good video, and though it spans some two and a half hours, it is well worth your time. But ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: “Least cost” to who?

    On Friday the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment released their submission on National's second Emissions Reduction Plan, ripping the shit out of it as a massive gamble based on wishful thinking. One of the specific issues he focused on was National's idea of "least cost" emissions reduction, pointing out that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Israeli Lives Matter

    There is no monopoly on common senseOn either side of the political fenceWe share the same biology, regardless of ideologyBelieve me when I say to youI hope the Russians love their children tooLyrics: Sting. Read more ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Luxon Cries

    Over the weekend, I found myself rather irritably reading up about the Treaty of Waitangi. “Do I need to do this?” It’s not my jurisdiction. In any other world, would this be something I choose to do?My answer - no.The Waitangi Tribunal, headed by some of our best legal minds, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Just one Wellington home being consented for every 10 in Auckland

    A decade of under-building is coming home to roost in Wellington. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday September 2:Wellington’s leaders are wringing their hands over an exodus of skilled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Container trucks on local streets: why take the risk?

    This is a guest post by Charmaine Vaughan, who came to transport advocacy via her local Residents Association and a comms role at Bike Auckland. Her enthusiasm to make local streets safer for all is shared by her son Dylan Vaughan, a budding “urban nerd” who provided much of the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    1 week ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35

    A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 25, 2024 thru Sat, August 31, 2024. Story of the week After another crammed week of climate news including updates on climate tipping points, increasing threats from rising ...
    1 week ago
  • An Uncanny Valley of Improvement: A Review and Analysis of The Rings of Power, Episodes 1-3 (Season ...

    And thus we come to the second instalment of Amazon’s Rings of Power. The first season, in 2022, was underwhelming, even for someone like myself, who is by nature inclined to approach Tolkien adaptations with charity. The writing was poor, the plot made no sense on its own terms, and ...
    1 week ago
  • Alcohol debris and Crocodile Tears

    I write to you this morning from scenes of carnage. Around the floor lie young men who only hours earlier were full of life, and cocktails, and now lie silent. Read more ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • When Do We Look Away?

    Hi,The first time I saw something that made me recoil on the internet was a visit to Rotten.com. The clue was in the name — but the internet was a new thing to me in the 90s, and no-one really knew what the hell was going on. But somehow I ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • The decades just fly by

    You turn your back for a moment and a city can completely transform itself. It was, oh, just the other day I was tripping up to Kuala Lumpur every few months to teach workshops and luxuriate in the tropical warmth and fill my face with Char Kway Teow.It has to ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • 2024 Reading Summary: August

    Completed reads for August: Aesop’s Fables (collection), by Aesop Berserk: Volume XXV (manga), by Kentaro Miura Benighted, by J.B. Priestly Berserk: Volume XXVI (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXVII (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXVIII (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXIX (manga), by Kentaro Miura ...
    1 week ago
  • Is recent global warming part of a natural cycle?

    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with John Mason. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is recent global warming part ...
    1 week ago
  • White Noise

    Now here we standWith our hearts in our handsSqueezing out the liesAll that I hearIs a message, unclearWhat else is there to decide?All that I'm hearing from youIs White NoiseLyrics: Christopher John CheneyIs the tide turning?Have we reached the high point of the racist hate and lies from Hobson’s Pledge, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The Death Of “Big Norm” – Exactly 50 Years Ago Today.

    Norman KirkPrime Minister of New Zealand 1972-1974Born: 6 January 1923 - Died: 31 August 1974Of the working-class, by the working-class, for the working-class.Video courtesy of YouTubeThese elements were posted on Bowalley Road on Saturday, 31 August 2024. ...
    1 week ago
  • Claims and Counter-Claims.

    Whose Foreshore? Whose Seabed? When the Marine and Coastal Area Act was originally passed back in 2011, fears about the coastline becoming off-limits to Pakeha were routinely allayed by National Party politicians pointing out that the tests imposed were so stringent  that only a modest percentage of claims (the then treaty ...
    1 week ago
  • Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • The Principles of the Treaty

    Hardly anyone says what are ‘the principles of the treaty’. The courts’ interpretation restrain the New Zealand Government. While they about protecting a particular community, those restraints apply equally to all community in a liberal democracy – including a single person.Treaty principles were introduced into the governance of New Zealand ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • The Only Other Reliable Vehicle.

    An Elite Leader Awaiting Rotation? Hipkins’ give-National-nothing-to-aim-at strategy will only succeed if the Coalition becomes as unpopular in three years as the British Tories became in fourteen.THE SHAPE OF CHRIS HIPKINS’ THINKING on Labour’s optimum pathway to re-election is emerging steadily. At the core of his strategy is Hipkins’ view ...
    2 weeks ago
  • A Big F U to this Right Wing Government

    Open to all - deep thanks to those who support and subscribe.One of the things that has got me interested recently is updates about Māori wards.In April, Stuff’s Karanama Ruru reported that ~ 2/3 of our 78 councils had adopted Māori wards in NZ.That meant that under the Coalition repeal ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    2 weeks ago

  • Action to grow the rural health workforce

    Scholarships awarded to 27 health care students is another positive step forward to boost the future rural health workforce, Associate Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “All New Zealanders deserve timely access to quality health care and this Government is committed to improving health outcomes, particularly for the one in five ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Pharmac delivering more for Kiwis following major funding boost

    Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour has welcomed the increased availability of medicines for Kiwis resulting from the Government’s increased investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the Government,” says Mr Seymour. “When our Government assumed office, New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Sport Minister congratulates NZ’s Paralympians

    Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop has congratulated New Zealand's Paralympic Team at the conclusion of the Paralympic Games in Paris.  “The NZ Paralympic Team's success in Paris included fantastic performances, personal best times, New Zealand records and Oceania records all being smashed - and of course, many Kiwis on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations

    A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report.  “It will have the mandate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Passport wait times back on-track

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New appointments to the FMA board

    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • District Court judges appointed

    Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand

    Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender

    New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease

    Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Improving access to finance for Kiwis

    5 September 2024  The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says.  “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia

    As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer

    Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations.   “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • More choice and competition in building products

    A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul

    On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • International tourism continuing to bounce back

    Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency

    The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says.  “That is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape

    The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government backs women in horticulture

    “The Government is empowering women in the horticulture industry by funding an initiative that will support networking and career progression,” Associate Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Grigg says.  “Women currently make up around half of the horticulture workforce, but only 20 per cent of leadership roles which is why initiatives like this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government to pause freshwater farm plan rollout

    The Government will pause the rollout of freshwater farm plans until system improvements are finalised, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “Improving the freshwater farm plan system to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers is a priority for this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Milestone reached for fixing the Holidays Act 2003

    Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says yesterday Cabinet reached another milestone on fixing the Holidays Act with approval of the consultation exposure draft of the Bill ready for release next week to participants.  “This Government will improve the Holidays Act with the help of businesses, workers, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New priorities to protect future of conservation

    Toitū te marae a Tāne Mahuta me Hineahuone, toitū te marae a Tangaroa me Hinemoana, toitū te taiao, toitū te tangata. The Government has introduced clear priorities to modernise Te Papa Atawhai - The Department of Conservation’s protection of our natural taonga. “Te Papa Atawhai manages nearly a third of our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti

    A new 110km/h speed limit for the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) has been approved to reduce travel times for Kiwis travelling in and out of Wellington, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • IVL increase to ensure visitors contribute more to New Zealand

    The International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) will be raised to $100 to ensure visitors contribute to public services and high-quality experiences while visiting New Zealand, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality Matt Doocey and Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka say. “The Government is serious about enabling the tourism sector ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Delivering priority connections for the West Coast

    A record $255 million for transport investment on the West Coast through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s road and rail links to keep people connected and support the region’s economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “The Government is committed to making sure that every ...
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