RB snaps awake, jolts markets

Written By: - Date published: 3:06 pm, March 10th, 2016 - 49 comments
Categories: economy, Financial markets - Tags: , ,

Guest Post: By Simon Louison

Seemingly asleep-at-the-wheel, Reserve Bank Governor, Graeme Wheeler, apparently snapped awake today when he announced a surprise quarter point cut to the Official Cash Rate to 2.25 percent.

Wheeler finally realised things were that bad, realising more stimulatory medicine was needed to boost an economy being sucked down by the dire position of the dairy industry and shaky global markets.

Financial markets, which had believed Wheeler’s spaced out commentary about the economy being hunky dory, were jolted awake and send the Kiwi dollar down a cent and half.

Wheeler, in his quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, cited “many risks” including “difficult challenges” in the dairy sector and the fragile international situation where the risks were “on the downside”.

Of the dairy industry, he said “it’s certainly a challenging sector there’s no question.”

The RB has “stress tested” banks on the basis that the dairy price slump holds for three more years.
The full results will be released next week, but under that “pretty tough” scenario he expects dairy land prices to fall around 40 percent.

Given the sector owes banks around $40 billion, and that that debt is mostly secured on the land, that is going to cause banks pain.

“Under that stress scenario, what the results show is that about 40 percent of the debt would be impaired and actual defaults would likely be something like about 10-15 percent of dairy lending,” Wheeler told a news conference.

But he assured us that agricultural lending made up only 10 percent of bank lending and only part of total agricultural lending was in dairy.

Of course we know that a lot of the rest of the massive bank debt is totally safe in the housing market – the bulk of it in Auckland.

Wheeler believed the banks could accommodate such a downturn in dairy.

He said the RB was also comforted that Auckland house inflation has come down from 27 percent in the year to September to just 14 percent in the year to January!

Asked if he was worried if today’s cut in the cash rate, quickly followed by mortgage rate cuts by private sector banks, would put further upward pressure on house prices, Wheeler said the house price-to-income ratio in the rest of the country was only 5.1 times against Auckland’s 8.5 times and there was more scope for the rest of the country to ‘adjust”.

Assistant Governor John McDermott said one of the main reasons for cutting today was because of low inflation expectations. Inflation has been below the bank’s 1-3 percent target for five consecutive quarters.

Wheeler denied the bank was “asymmetric” in countering inflation falling below the bottom of the target rather than rising above it.

Commenting on the risks of deflation (where prices are on downward spiral), Wheeler said there were global forces at work including globisation itself, technology such as low cost communications, oil and commodity price falls and migration cutting labour costs.

But he refused to admit that monetary policy was now impotent or that inflation targeting was a waste of time.

“No central bank has abandoned flexible inflation targeting,” he said.

Dr McDermott, with a rather smug smile of his face, noted that the RB could still cut rates another 225 basis points before it got into negative interest rates already prevalent in Japan and Europe, “which is more than most central banks have.”

(Simon Louisson formerly worked for The Wall Street Journal, NZPA, Reuters and was most recently a political and media adviser to the Green Party)

49 comments on “RB snaps awake, jolts markets ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Lanthanide 1
    10 March 2016 at 3:24 pm

    The banks might be able to weather the storm of dairy land prices falling 40%.

    But can they weather that, and also weather a collapse in Auckland house prices at the same time?

  2. weka 2
    10 March 2016 at 4:01 pm

    Has NZ ever been in a negative interest rate? What’s the lowest we’ve gone?

  3. Nic the NZer 3
    10 March 2016 at 4:13 pm

    Why is this called a surprise? It was two weeks ago English was blaming the RBNZ for having too high an OCR and not hitting its inflation targets.

  4. Keith 4
    10 March 2016 at 4:20 pm

    We’re stairing down the barrel of deflation and it’s harder to get rid of than a cockroach infestation and almost as hard as finding a honest straight talking Nat MP.

    Hence the rise in the minimum wage, posing as a generous caring John Key moment, because real wage inflation is non existent under Keys ineptitude. Deflation is bad but the fact it’s knocking on the door is just the cream on a cake made of bullshit for the incompetent National government!

    • McFlock 4.1
      10 March 2016 at 4:26 pm

      they’d need to suddenly and significantly increase the minimum wage, 25c or 50c won’t do it. At least a few bucks. And even then any effect might not be tangible.

      • Draco T Bastard 4.1.1
        10 March 2016 at 5:20 pm

        That’d go against National’s basic principle of screwing over workers as much as possible.

        • Stuart Munro 4.1.1.1
          10 March 2016 at 7:17 pm

          The most direct reversal would probably be achieved by reversing their stupid and vindictive welfare cuts. That was always the dark secret of social welfare – it all gets spent at the bottom so it’s economic benefit is relatively strong – unlike Nic’s corruption.

          • Keith 4.1.1.1.1
            10 March 2016 at 8:07 pm

            I heard this afternoon Graham Wheeler saying that the rate cut was to encourage growth. I believe Wheeler.

            Then I heard Key going on about how good this is, even cheaper interest rates than the already ridiculously cheap rates, touching on a lower exchange rate that is good for exporters then moving quickly on not to make mention of higher consumer prices that will result, real hollow opportunist bit of turd polishing. Key sounded as trustworthy as a stereotypical used car salesman.

            Funny thing is in contrast to Wheelers comments we muppets in NZ have been told for quite some time we have a Rockstar economy, an economy with more growth than nearly any other western nation, averaging 2 to 3 plus percent in growth, ra, ra, ra!. Trouble is that growth never seemed real as in you can feel it and that every one seems to be doing better. High (real) unemployment, people living in cars, insufficient income to pay the bills or hours to work, government borrowing soaring. There’s been this nagging doubt about how real this “growth” is and it appears to be tied to things like speculative housing inflation and rebuilds and tremendously localised area’s selected to enhance this statistic. No matter how tanking is the dairy industry, real things like that don’t seem affect predicted growth.

            So bullshit away National, the truth is the economy is flat lining and slipping under and you don’t have and never have had a clue!

            • Lanthanide 4.1.1.1.1.1
              10 March 2016 at 9:33 pm

              Key’s always had it both ways: low interest rates are good because people have more money in their back pocket, and high interest rates are good because it makes the dollar higher, which makes it cheaper to buy things in the shops and it shows the economy is strong.

              He has literally used both of these explanations about 1 year apart, back during 2011-2012 time frame.

            • Nic the NZer 4.1.1.1.1.2
              11 March 2016 at 8:50 pm

              You must have passed over the bit of the RBNZ anouncement where they mentioned the RBNZ targeting a 1-3% inflation band. Are you suggesting a lower inflation band should be set as the tatget?

      • Richard McGrath 4.1.2
        10 March 2016 at 8:10 pm

        Or the government could consider abolishing tax on incomes below $50k p.a.

        • Sans Cle 4.1.2.1
          10 March 2016 at 10:00 pm

          ….and taxing anything over $200,000 at 95%, if we could properly account for all income sources – not just on paid employment.

          • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.1.1
            10 March 2016 at 10:24 pm

            I think a historically fair but high rate of income tax is 89%.

            • Richard McGrath 4.1.2.1.1.1
              11 March 2016 at 12:05 am

              Do you honestly believe anyone would bother working in the situation where there was an 89% tax rate? Or a business remaining there rather than shifting to Hong Kong, Singapore or somewhere else with lower degrees of wealth confiscation?

              • lprent …
                11 March 2016 at 4:09 am

                A tax credit system for kids is far simpler for everyone from employers to the IRD.

                Raising low income wages is even better. It helps eliminate exploitive ratshit employers and nonviable businesses as a economic benefit – allowing resources to flow to more constructive ventures.

                • Jones …
                  11 March 2016 at 7:09 am

                  Why not go for a UBI?

                • The Chairman …
                  11 March 2016 at 10:58 am

                  “Raising low income wages is even better. It helps eliminate exploitive ratshit employers and nonviable businesses as a economic benefit – allowing resources to flow to more constructive ventures.”

                  Indeed.

                • Richard McGrath …
                  11 March 2016 at 2:32 pm

                  Should wages be related to productivity or dictated from on high?

                  • One Anonymous Bloke …
                    11 March 2016 at 5:38 pm

                    Right now, they aren’t related to productivity: they’re dictated by employers. Hence the massive fall in the value of wages over the last three decades, despite the increased productivity; aka market failure.

                    It’s the fault of deregulatory fuckwits with a hard-on for Libertard/Objectigimp delusions.

                    That’s why no-one cares what they think anymore.

              • Draco T Bastard …
                11 March 2016 at 6:43 am

                Do you honestly believe anyone would bother working in the situation where there was an 89% tax rate?

                Yep, I do – because it’s happened before. All around the OECD in fact.

                • Richard McGrath …
                  11 March 2016 at 2:28 pm

                  Which countries had an 89% tax bracket apart from the U.S. under Eisenhower more than fifty years ago?

                  • McFlock …
                    11 March 2016 at 4:46 pm

                    UK seems to have been in the ballpark, for one.

                    Figure 2: knock yourself out. First page of the first google attempt, by the way.

                    Draco might have over-egged it by saying “all around the OECD”, but that had probably only about half the egg of your “Do you honestly believe anyone would bother working in the situation where there was an 89% tax rate?” nonsense.

                    89% is a high marginal tax rate, sure, but it’s not exactly unheralded and it has actually existed without resulting in capital flight and economic collapse. If that’s outside your conceptual capabilities, then you need to reassess your relationship with reality.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke …
                      11 March 2016 at 5:40 pm

                      I say force them to go Galt: build an island out of sand and industrial waste, and set them loose.

              • Anno1701 …
                11 March 2016 at 1:16 pm

                “Or a business remaining there rather than shifting to Hong Kong, Singapore or somewhere else with lower degrees of wealth confiscation?”

                “we are not in the least afraid of ruins” ….. Buenaventura Durruti

        • lprent 4.1.2.2
          11 March 2016 at 3:58 am

          Why go for a complex and massively expensive solution like that?

          Firstly just defining what a “FAMILY” is. Whatever way you do it you get distortions. For instance when I was living with my recently separated sister and her preschool kids. Or if Lyn and I took responsibility for godchildren after fatalities with their parents without doing the adoption or guardian procedures with the approval of their remaining family.

          Just think how scam artists would love claiming they are a family and withholding PAYE, Bad enough the way that they have to pursue deadbeat business people through th courts now. Imagine that kicked up twenty-fold for small amounts.

  5. esoteric pineapples 5
    10 March 2016 at 4:30 pm

    Great posts Simon. As much as I enjoy all the other blogs on The Standard, it’s good to have some journalistic reporting, something that tends to be absent on even the best blogs. Even sites like Scoop tend to just print press releases. What a journalist does is use their intelligence, skill, and experience to gather information and present it in a way that different points of view make sense against each other. They are providing a value added service that the general layperson can’t do themselves (or simply doesn’t have the time).

    • Sacha 5.1
      10 March 2016 at 6:17 pm

      “Even sites like Scoop tend to just print press releases. ”

      That’s their business model. Our big media duopoly have have no excuse.

      • Colonial Viper 5.1.1
        10 March 2016 at 6:33 pm

        The main point with Scoop is that they will publish legit press releases that the MSM completely ignore.

  6. Stephen Doyle 6
    10 March 2016 at 6:59 pm

    Won’t this cut just continue fuelling the Auckland housing market?

    • Kiwiri 6.1
      10 March 2016 at 10:15 pm

      Yup, that will buy more time to keep things bubbling along, as well as the feel good factor in the home equity
      Buys a bit more time for some dairy farmers too

  7. Expat 7
    10 March 2016 at 7:21 pm

    Wheeler should not have increased the OCR two years ago, against global trends, it saw Kiwi’s pay more for their mortgages (taking money out of the economy) and held the dollar up (getting less for exports) and now he’s paying the toll

    The dollar just dropped 3c against the Aussie.

    • Lanthanide 7.1
      10 March 2016 at 9:36 pm

      Or, he at least shouldn’t have gone higher than 0.5%

    • Paul 7.2
      11 March 2016 at 6:59 am

      Raising the interest rate also encouraged speculation in the dollar.

      The fact we nave so many neo-liberal ideologues in this country is killing jobs and the economy.
      Hoggard of Federated Farmers bemoans the common sense approach of those countries who protect their agriculture. Protecting your people’s food base seems a lot more prudent than a religious belief in markets. Farmers who bought this belief are now going to have to sell their land to overseas owners. Soon we shall be like medieval serfs, working the land for foreign overlords.

      Our economic problems are then compounded by dolts like Key, who on one hand blather on about ‘free trade’ while at the same time tying us to a slavish support of the US, meaning farmers can’t sell their milk to Russia and undermining our sovereignty by signing the TPPA.

      When the Auckland house prices collapse, the million or so people who have voted for National on the basis that ‘I’m alright Jack’, will learn like others already have that Key and his gang are only concerned for the 1% and the transnational corporations

      By then, though, it will be too late..

      And history will show that Douglas, Richardson, Shipley, Key and a long list of self centred followers sold our country for the proverbial thirty pieces of silver.
      They were aided and abetted by court jesters and popinjays such as Henry, Hosking and Christie, who sold the neoliberal lie to a populace sated on modern day circuses.

      This about sums it up.

      http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WINDtlPXmmE

      • Expat 7.2.1
        11 March 2016 at 2:56 pm

        Paul

        All good points, as far as killing jobs goes, it started in Key’s first year of rein, 200k Kiwi’s left NZ since 2010, and the jobs market has only deteriorated since then.

        The most accurate indicator of a prosperous, thriving economy is LOW unemployment, preferably below 4.5%, but modern right wing govts don’t subscribe to this ideology, they still focus on high unemployment, to keep wages low, how counter productive is that, every time we see it, the economy starts going backwards.

  8. dave 8
    11 March 2016 at 6:55 am

    if interest drops in the bank iam pulling my money out why should we give them the us of our saving for next zero when bank fees are added in stuff that

  9. Murray Simmonds 9
    11 March 2016 at 8:04 am

    Dave:

    Your savings account is pretty much irrelevant to the bank, as is mine and everyone else’s savings.

    Banks make their money out of mortgages. So the bank really just agrees to hold our savings account because each customer with an account on their books represents a potential mortgage customer. (Bank fees reamed out of you by way of bank fees are peanuts compared to what they stand to make out of you in interest payments if you take out a mortgage).

    If I borrow $100,000, that money is created there, on the spot by the bank. I then repay it at whatever interest rate and the bank then gets to keep my interest payments – money that they have essentially made out of “digital vapour” (i.e out of an entry in a spreadsheet).

    That’s the way modern banking works.

  10. vto 10
    11 March 2016 at 8:25 am

    interest rates dropping to near zero is the logical outcome of the monetary system we operate under

    was always going to happen

    question is: what is going to happen next, when the current system finally breaks? how is the monetary system going to be changed? and make no mistake – it will be changed

  11. pat 11
    11 March 2016 at 9:54 am

    the question is whether it will be changed pre-emptively or not…

  12. Murray Simmonds 12
    11 March 2016 at 2:28 pm

    “interest rates dropping to near zero is the logical outcome . . . .”

    The thing is, vto, that interest rates have dropped, for the first time in history, to BELOW zero in some of the more troubled world economies (Japan and some European countries for example.)

    IMO this shows just how “out of control” the world monetary system has become.

    “the question is whether it will be changed pre-emptively or not…”

    Well. pat, the only changes made after the 2008 GFC were effectively changes that maintained the status quo.

    I’m not holding out much hope for anything much changing this time. But whatever happens, one can pretty much guarantee that it will be exactcly what the 1% want.

    • pat 12.1
      11 March 2016 at 3:09 pm

      it is a question of whether the change will be controlled or uncontrolled….the 1% would be expected to want to retain control….that dosnt mean events will accomodate them

  13. Murray Simmonds 13
    11 March 2016 at 2:54 pm

    Zero-Hedge article on Japanese bonds:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-29/japan-sells-first-ever-10y-bond-negative-yield

    the comments below that article are amusing – Americans trying to get their heads around the question of why on earth anyone would want to buy bonds with a negative yield.

    My guess is that it is something to do with this:
    if you believe that your bank is about to go bust then you draw out all your money and put it somewhere safe. Traditionally, that was gold bullion. But with everyone rushing into gold, that might be a bit of a problem, long term.

    So negative-yielding govt bonds might not be a bad hedge against losing your entire savings when the bank files for insolvency. You might lose a LITTLE in your purchase of negative-yield bonds, but you’d lose a helluva lot more if you kept your money in a failing bank. So its a kind of “insurance policy”.

    • Nic the NZer 13.1
      11 March 2016 at 8:43 pm

      The simple explanation here is that the BOJ is rumning a negative cash rate. If the cash is in bonds it doesnt get confiscated.

  14. Murray Simmonds 14
    11 March 2016 at 4:15 pm

    “the 1% would be expected to want to retain control….that dosnt mean events will accomodate them”

    Yes, pat, unless you take the view that the 1% ARE the agents in control.

    This is where the conspiracy theorists come in.

    I watched the long documentary posted by Paul (above) this morning.

    Dunno if it was a good idea or not . . . . but its a fascinating POSSIBLE scenario. It’ll probably give me bad dreams tonight . . . .

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    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to July 19

    TL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers last night features co-hosts and talking with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent talking about the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan;University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor and special guest Dr Karin von ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

    Open access notables Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

    The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

    Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.    “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024.  “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ to advance relationships with ASEAN partners

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane.    “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says.   “This will be our third visit to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Backing mental health services on the West Coast

    Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ support for sustainable Pacific fisheries

    New Zealand is committing nearly $50 million to a package supporting sustainable Pacific fisheries development over the next four years, Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This support consisting of a range of initiatives demonstrates New Zealand’s commitment to assisting our Pacific partners ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Students’ needs at centre of new charter school adjustments

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says proposed changes to the Education and Training Amendment Bill will ensure charter schools have more flexibility to negotiate employment agreements and are equipped with the right teaching resources. “Cabinet has agreed to progress an amendment which means unions will not be able to initiate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Commissioner replaces Health NZ Board

    In response to serious concerns around oversight, overspend and a significant deterioration in financial outlook, the Board of Health New Zealand will be replaced with a Commissioner, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti announced today.  “The previous government’s botched health reforms have created significant financial challenges at Health NZ that, without ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister to speak at Australian Space Forum

    Minister for Space and Science, Innovation and Technology Judith Collins will travel to Adelaide tomorrow for space and science engagements, including speaking at the Australian Space Forum.  While there she will also have meetings and visits with a focus on space, biotechnology and innovation.  “New Zealand has a thriving space ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend climate action meeting in China

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will travel to China on Saturday to attend the Ministerial on Climate Action meeting held in Wuhan.  “Attending the Ministerial on Climate Action is an opportunity to advocate for New Zealand climate priorities and engage with our key partners on climate action,” Mr Watts says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Oceans and Fisheries Minister to Solomons

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