web analytics

Russian roulette

Written By: - Date published: 8:53 am, September 23rd, 2022 - 194 comments
Categories: International, Russia, uncategorized, United Nations, war - Tags:

The Ukraine war is not going well for Russia.

It was meant to be a war that would be over quickly but dogged Ukraine defence helped by high tech Western supplied weapons have not only halted the invasion but there have been recent reports of Ukraine forces driving the Russians back.

Putin knows this and has responded by performing the first Military Draft since the second world war seeking 300,000 extra soldiers for the fight.  He has also planned for referenda in Russian held parts of the Ukraine.  And to top things off he has threatened the use of nuclear weapons.

From Al Jazeera:

Russian-backed separatists plan to hold referendums in the occupied areas of eastern Ukraine, a move that has triggered a chorus of condemnation from Western leaders.

The vote will pave the way for the formal annexation of swaths of territory by Russia after nearly seven months of the war with its neighbour, a former Soviet republic.

If Russia goes ahead with the referendums and includes the four regions in Russia, then Ukraine – and potentially its Western backers too – would, from a Russian perspective, be fighting against Russia itself.

That would raise the risk of a direct military confrontation between Russia and the NATO military alliance, a scenario that President Joe Biden has said could lead to World War III, because NATO members are supplying arms and giving intelligence to Ukraine.

As such, a rushed Russian move to formally annex another big chunk of Ukrainian territory would be a major escalation just days after potentially the most significant Russian battlefield defeat of the war in northeastern Ukraine.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows the use of such weapons if it is attacked with nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, or if the Russian state faces an existential threat from conventional weapons.

While escalating the stakes of the confrontation, Putin could also announce additional steps.

Russian stocks plunged to their lowest in a month on Tuesday as Moscow reignited martial law fears with new legislation that tightened penalties for military personnel.

Unless Ukraine agreed to stop fighting for its lost territory, Russia would have to commit significant military forces to defend the newly annexed regions – which are still not fully under Russian control.

“Putin has made a bet on escalation,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik.

“All this talk about immediate referendums is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West.”

New Zealand is now considering expulsion of the Russian Ambassador.  From OneNews:

Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta said expelling the Russian Ambassador to New Zealand is “an active consideration”.

It comes after Vladimir Putin announced a plan for partial mobilisation in Russia, and ahead of Russian-controlled regions in eastern and southern Ukraine planning to hold referendums on becoming part of Russia — a move that could allow Moscow to escalate the war.

And there were scenes yesterday at the United Nations as Russian Ambassador Sergei Lavrov turned up late, then left immediately after speaking to a special Security Council session.

Putin appears to have given up on plans of taking over the Ukraine and instead wants to have the resolutions passed and then have the threat of nuclear war to persuade the west to tolerate Russia holding onto the land.  This is a very high risk strategy and one that may end in disaster.

194 comments on “Russian roulette ”

  1. Mike the Lefty 1

    I note your intro says "modified territorial integrity.."

    Putin is descending into juvenile madness.

    It is akin to a child taking the lollies from another child and then complaining that the other child started a fight when he tries to take them back.

    There is probably a scientific name for a condition like that.

  2. Jimmy 2

    I heard on Newstalk ZB that the number was not 300,000, but was actually 1 million extra soldiers they were wanting. Don't know if this is factual.

    • tsmithfield 2.1

      Bums on seats is one thing. I think Putins biggest problem is enough seats (in terms of equipment etc).

    • lprent 2.2

      In my opinion, Newstalk ZB couldn't be accurate if they tried.

      What they have done at this point is to be able to draft up to 300k reservists (ie soldiers who left the military but can still be called up) and people with previous military experience (presumably those who have left the reserve).

      This is because Putin and his generals have largely squandered the up to 160k regular military and mercenaries that they have thrown into their invasion so far.

      This means that they don't violate the provision in the Russian Federation constitution that prevents the even more poorly trained drafted conscripts from being massacred in wars external to the federation.

      The 'referendums' due to happen over the next week (giving no time for any campaigning) appear to be set to take that time only so that the occupation administration have time to get their list together and to give each the vote that the Russian Federation wants. I suspect that that few people will be able to actually vote, and certainly few if any in opposition, or the millions of refugees from the area cannot votes.

      • Gabby 2.2.1

        Got to wonder if the State can afford that level of recruitment given the wealth Pooters and cronies have stripped out of it.

    • James Simpson 2.3

      That 1 million conscription number is being reported through a number of European media outlets and is sourced from the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europe. It has reported that a source in the presidential administration said Russia was seeking to draft more than 1 million people into the army. That reporting has not been confirmed by other news outlets

      • Scud 2.3.1

        That's the total Russia mobilisation if ordered by the Duma of the Federal Assembly (willing to be corrected & Russia wasn't in the scheme of things either when I was still in)

        This 1m mobilisation does not include wasted ie those not fit for Military Services etc.

        This current Russian Mobilisation is a mere drop of the blood that has been spilt so by Russia-

        Through gross incompetence,

        Piss poor Training Tactics & Procedures

        Corruption & nepotism of the Russian military command above battalion level

        You can throw in the FSB & the Military's GRU for it's cockups & other piss poor KPI's etc (words failed me with these 2 organisations)

        The list almost endless with Russian cockups to date.

        It's going to take Russian Military at least 6-18mths to rebuild it's conventional Force capability for the south-west military district (formerly known as the Rostov On Don & Volgograd Military District's) which Tsar Poot's has destroyed.

        Tsar Poot's is praying for General Mud & Field Marshall Winter to come now. As UrK has enforce another OPSEC & Media Blackout for Eastern Ukraine.

        Yes Russia has massive Stores, Vehicle/ Tanks Parks East of Urals & another spare 700k Squaddies to boot.

        But you can't trained if you no "serviceable equipment that hasn't been properly maintained in Storage-

        Completely gutted your Officer & NCO Corp in Ukraine.

        As anyone who's Military, ex Military or interesting Military affairs, know NCO's are the real workers who get things done & not the bloody Officers unless you are from the Andrew/ Pirates.

        Or even the Facilities to undertake the required training & some Army Bases haven't really changed since Tsar Nicholas time expect for the Andrew/ Pirates & Airforce.

        Tsar Poot's atm, doesn't realise his hand of a pair 2's are in fact a pair of Jokers & the last laugh is on him.

        Oh one other things, for those who find Logistics & the understanding the Military Appreciation Process completely bat shit boring.

        Russian Communications & Logistics since Adam was in his birthday suit, all Centres Moscow.

        I won't everyone another history lesson, as you better things too atm. But have a read of what happened in Russia in 1905 & 1917 ie especially from 1914 after the Battle of Tañnenberg.

        History has a funny way of repeating itself sometimes.

        I better head off, for a wee nap as I had bloody crappy morning. Had the Bloody Vampires at 6am to take more bloods & then lay on the MRI 2hrs while being inject Radiative liquid to find out why I'm a 20 long necks short of cate.

        • Shanreagh 2.3.1.1

          Very good Scud. The Andrew and pirates in the same breath. And those same generals with the same name as earlier invasions 'General Mud & Field Marshall Winter'

          I was interested that despite the so-called Russian miracle or perhaps self-described is a better phrase, and the oodles of money spent on armaments that many bases have had no improvements made since early last century.

          Hope your health troubles are getting better,.

    • fender 2.4

      Factual and FoxTalkZB don't really go together, especially if the Hoskings are involved

    • SPC 2.5

      They have 2 million in their "reserves" (1 million active), and the partial mobilisation is in this case 300,000.

      An American observed pithily these are not trained reserves, just ex soldiers. While it gets around the problem of training up conscripts, one would have no idea of the current attitude or capability of those. former soldiers.

      There is the 1905 and 1917 problem of people with weapons unimpressed with those in Moscow.

    • Mike the Lefty 2.6

      If it is Newstalk ZB you never know.

    • joe90 2.7

      The things you hear.

  3. tsmithfield 3

    The world can't back down at Putin's threat of nuclear war if he doesn't get his way. Otherwise, any country with nukes will be able to demand what they want backed by the threat of nuclear attack.

    Vlad Vexler is one of the best commentators I have seen on the situation in Russia, with a very unique and insightful perspective.

    The video is well worth a watch, as is a lot of his other content.

    An interesting point he makes, is that Putin has had an implicit contract with the Russian people, that he can do the politics and military stuff while they get on with their lives as if nothing is happening. So, the "partial" mobilisation is an effort to try and not upset the Russian people too much while at the same time trying to appease the Russian war-mongers who think Putin has been doing far too little.

    According to Vexler, with respect to the dilemma Putin faces with Russian masses:

    Politically, Putin needs them on the couch; militarily he needs them in Ukraine.

    Given that there are already mass protests, and people trying to flee Russia, things may not be going too well for Putin in that respect. And, mobilisation is not something that happens overnight. So, it is not clear how quickly mobilised conscripts will be able to make a difference.

    And, Russia has already been struggling with logistics with respect to the much smaller force it has in Ukraine now. So, how it would manage to keep up logistics for a much larger force is a problem Russia will struggle to solve.

    • lprent 3.1

      I think that we need to revisit the non-proliferation treaty. Both for NZ / Australia, and for all of the Russian Federations neighbours.

      The NPT was based on the major nuclear powers, including Russia, not threatening explicitly or indirectly to using nuclear weapons as blackmail. Without that guarantee the treaty isn't worth having.

      • tsmithfield 3.1.1

        I think that the whole concept of mutually assured destruction is completely nuts. The biggest problem is that it doesn't take into account the possibility of a psychopath like Putin.

        Who knows what Putin would do if he is faced with the possibility of actually losing, and therefore probably facing his own personal existential threat. But, then I don't think the world can back down otherwise it will encourage him to keep making those threats.

        • Belladonna 3.1.1.1

          Or, to be fair, the equal risk of a psychopath in the White House.
          One would hope that people down the chain of command would see the light – but it's anything but assured. Political control of the military is a base principle of governance in both the US and Russia.

          • tsmithfield 3.1.1.1.1

            True. That could also be a risk in the future. But, at the moment, the only psychopath making those sorts of threats is the Russian one.

            • Blazer 3.1.1.1.1.1

              'US President Donald Trump has boasted that his nuclear button is "much bigger" and "more powerful" than North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's.

              Standing again in 2024?

    • KJT 3.2

      "The world can't back down at Putin's threat of nuclear war if he doesn't get his way. Otherwise, any country with nukes will be able to demand what they want backed by the threat of nuclear attack."

      You mean, what the USA has been doing, with 84 and counting regime changes, since 1945?

      Putin is simply following their example.

      • tsmithfield 3.2.1

        I don't recall the US threatening to nuke nations it had a problem with any time in the last 70 years. Can you give any examples where they have?

        • Blazer 3.2.1.1

          'The Bush administration threatened to bomb Pakistan 'back to the stone age' after the September 11 attacks if the country did not cooperate with America's war on Afghanistan, it emerged yesterday.'

          Bush threatened to bomb Pakistan, says Musharraf | World news | The Guardian

          • tsmithfield 3.2.1.1.1

            Possible to do that with conventional weapons the US has. So, not the same as threatening nukes.

            • Blazer 3.2.1.1.1.1

              So where has Putin specifically mentioned nukes…if you want to play that…game?

              • tsmithfield

                Do I need to point that out? His last speech for instance.

                "And if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It’s not a bluff."

                Since nuclear weapons are one of the available means, and since Putin has threatened to use all means, then logically, nuclear weapons are included in the threat.

                I agree that this statement simply states what is just standard Russian nuclear policy. But, whether it is a threat or not depends on how Russian territory is interpreted.

                For instance, if Russia annexes the Donbass, Kherson etc in the next week or so, does that suddenly become Russian territory to which the nuclear threat applies, and are any Ukrainian forces fighting in those regions suddenly at threat from Russian nukes?

                That is a question many in the west are pondering, and probably is intended ambiguity from Putin.

                • Blazer

                  So apply your very same logic to Bush…'we will bomb you back to the Stone Age'…you are …spinning,not…winning.

                  • tsmithfield

                    Not at all.

                    Logically, "bombing back into the stone-age" doesn't require or imply nukes.

                    Whereas, "use all means at our disposal'' logically does, when nukes are available as one of those means. And, if annexed territories are part of Russia, then the threat logically applies to Ukrainians fighting in those regions after annexation.

                    • Blazer

                      Nukes were available as one of those means,for the U.S to bomb Pakistan back to the Stone Age…surely!sad

                    • tsmithfield

                      "Nukes were available as one of those means,for the U.S to bomb Pakistan back to the Stone Age…surely!sad"

                      Sigh. You need to study the rules of deductive reasoning. All apples are fruit but not all fruit are apples etc.

                      Even without nukes, the US could bomb Pakistan back to the stone-age if it wanted to. So, nukes aren’t a necessary condition of the statement.

                      But when Russia says it will use ”all means”, and one of those means are nukes, then it necessarily follows that a nuclear threat is included in the statement.

                    • Blazer

                      'physician…heal thyself'!….sigh*

                    • tsmithfield

                      '''physician…heal thyself'!….sigh*''

                      You have just proved my point. If you want to win an argument of logic, you need to use logic. Your reply there looks more like giving up than anything else.

                    • Blazer

                      '

                      You have just proved my point. If you want to win an argument of logic, you need to use logic. Your reply there looks more like giving up than anything else.'

                      Facts are useful too.

                      You seem to ignore them .

                      Maybe you don't understand the quote I posted.

                      You appear to have your own brand of 'logic'.

                • Francesca

                  Sounds very similar to Obama , Kerry ,Trump and Biden saying "All options are on the table"when attempting to "twist the arms of those countries not doing what we need them to do "(Obama)

            • KJT 3.2.1.1.1.2

              Are you fucking kidding?

              The USA would not have got away with all the shit they have done without the Nuclear "stick" in the background.

        • KJT 3.2.1.2

          I said, "since 1945".

          Just one of them. Cuban Missile Crisis – Wikipedia

          • tsmithfield 3.2.1.2.1

            That doesn't point to an explicit threat though. Just where both sides were deciding to place their missiles, and not really that different to the state of things today, if you consider the fact that Europe has nukes handily placed. Yet no-one is Europe is going out and saying they intend to nuke Russia or any such thing.

        • Jenny are we there yet 3.2.1.3

          '

          "I don't recall the US threatening to nuke nations it had a problem with any time in the last 70 years. Can you give any examples where they have?"

          tsmithfield

          When Eisenhower Threatened China With Nuclear Destruction

          Feb 22, 2017 Ian Harvey

          …..After the fall of Yijiangshan, [to the communists] the US had passed the Formosa Resolution which pledged to defend the Republic of China [Taiwan] from attack. In March, the US warned that it was prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend the Republic of China. In April, Mao signaled a willingness to negotiate and further attacks on the islands stopped in May.

          It is a topic of debate whether Eisenhower stopped the PLA’s attacks with his nuclear threat…..

          https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war-articles/eisenhower-threatened-china-nuclear-destruction.html?chrome=1

          When Nixon Threatened to Nuke Vietnam

          June 1, 2015. by JOSEPH TREVITHICK

          Washington now sees nuclear weapons as a last ditch resort … but it hasn’t always and the Pentagon has been more than happy come up with plans to lob the devastating bombs at America’s enemies.

          Sometimes, Washington used those plans to exert political pressure. In 1969, Pres. Richard Nixon did just that.

          ….Thanks to newly declassified documents, we now know that he [Nixon] asked U.S. military commanders to figure out how to scare North Vietnam and its Soviet allies into peace on America’s terms……

          ……it doesn’t look like Washington ever seriously considered dropping the bomb on North Vietnam, but Nixon did want Hanoi and the Kremlin to think he would.

          The Pentagon had known for years that military victory in Vietnam was a difficult proposition, at best. Hanoi’s fighters were too entrenched, and stopping the flow of supplies to guerrillas in the south was all but impossible.

          Political considerations such as Moscow’s support for Hanoi, Vietnam’s proximity to communist China and ostensible Lao and Cambodian neutrality made a military victory without massive geopolitical fallout a distant dream.

          https://medium.com/war-is-boring/when-nixon-threatened-to-nuke-vietnam-a00bc0f73909

          Did someone say 'Quagmire'

          Putin's plight in Ukraine is reminiscent of Nixon's in Vietnam.

          Nixon and Ike were bluffing. My opinion, Putin is too.

          The use of nuclear weapons is the ultimate war crime.

          The only times that nuclear weapons have been used in war was against Japan in 1945.

          The following Tokyo War Crimes Tribunal, fell into disunity when arguments between the judges on the tribunal hearing the evidence of Japanese war crimes argued over whether dropping nuclear bombs on civilian targets in Japan was a war crime, as great or greater than the war crimes committed by the Japanese imperial army. Though it was a minority opinion, Justice Paal of India published his minority opinion that the use of the atomic bomb was a war crime and should have been prosecuted. Justice Paal wrote; We know the names of those who ordered the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we know the names of everyone down the whole chain of command right down to the men who flew the planes and pulled the lever.

          I think the majority of the people of the world would agree with the minority opinion of the Tokyo War Crimes judge Justice Paal.

          Nixon in particular came to the realisation that if he used nuclear weapons on Vietnam the American people would not have tolerated it.
          The current unrest in Russia over the 'Partial Mobilisation' is an indication that Putin must be coming to the same realisation.

        • mikesh 3.2.1.4

          The US has so far not found itself in a situation where it needed to, however that may not be the case with Russia for much longer. I think it would be implicit in the MAD concept that, if a nation found itself in such a position, interested nations would arrive at a negotiated settlement of the matters in dispute. In the current situation Biden and Zelenskyy making warlike demands doesn't really help.

          • Barfly 3.2.1.4.1

            "Biden and Zelenskyy making warlike demands doesn't really help."

            All Putin has to do is get the fuck out of Ukraine – he chose to invade and has caused untold deaths (Mariupol alone estimated civilian deaths at 87,000). Putin is the first 21st century monster and is obsessed with making history and rebuilding the "Russian Empire".

            • mikesh 3.2.1.4.1.1

              All Zelenskyy has to do is cede the disputed area, an area which he and Porochenko before him, have been attacking since 2014, to Russia. He won't because he would rather Ukraine was nuked than lose face. He thinks that Putin is bluffing. I don't.

  4. Sanctuary 5

    The saying goes that 100 poorly trained and motivated conscripts run away as fast as 10 but they eat more. And of course, big differences in numbers have counted for little since the period between 7.30am and about lunchtime on July 1st 1916 in which time 57,000 British soldiers were shot down largely by a few dozen German machine guns and their supporting artillery.

    I think though it would be wishful thinking to not acknowledge the dictim that quantity has a quality all of it's own and Putin has all of Stalin's contempt for the lives of his own people so throwing a million conscripts into the battle makes a Ukrainian victory – unless it can be achieved before the northern spring in 2023 – much less likely. Given that the war is now existential to both Putin and the Ukrainie and the United States is not going to back down the rest of escalation is reaching near 100%.

    The use of WMDs by Russia would immediately trigger direct US intervention in the war to bring it to a conclusion. I saw a video the other day of "new" fortifications near the border between Poland and Russia which looked like the Poles had reactivated an entire WW2 defense line, whilst apparently the Polish (and Romanian) border regions have been transformed into huge logistics and repair hubs feeding supplies into the Ukraine, about which the Russians can do nothing. IMHO, a wild card for escalation in this whole ware could be a Polish intervention. After all, they really, really hate the Russians.

    The most hopeful dynamic in play now is Russian domestic opinion, where eerie parallels with the unrest sparked by the Tsarist defeat by Japan in 1905 can be discerned. With just a modicum of luck, Russian public opinion might allow Putin to be deposed.

  5. Blazer 6

    Can't see how Russia can lose myself.

    'Russia had approximately 1.35 million active military personnel as of 2022, compared to 500 thousand in Ukraine. The number of aircraft at the disposal of the Russian army was close to 4.2 thousand, while Ukrainian armed forces possessed almost 320 aircraft.'

    Russia & Ukraine military comparison 2022 | Statista

    • Barfly 6.1

      And yet … it's day 210 of Russia's invasion and their air force ain't doing squat and they've been going backwards on the ground at a great rate of knots

      • Blazer 6.1.1

        Ukraine is being destroyed and the Eastern regions are…occupied.

        • lprent 6.1.1.1

          Eastern regions are…occupied.

          Quite a lot less now than at the start of the month.

          Ukraine is being destroyed

          Not really – unless you're one of those dickheads that prefer the immoral large volumes and poor quality of indiscriminate bombing – over the military morality of hitting the actual targets they’re aiming at.

          The Russian weapons coming out of decades old stockpiles from the soviet era have proved to be more effective at attacking apartment buildings and schools than they have been at attacking infrastructure and military targets that they say they have been targeting.

          Personally I attribute that more to inaccurate weapons and simple standoff cowardice by Russian pilots. They fire from so far away that their imprecise old weapons just spray vaguely near to targets.

          So far their accuracy is about as good as the terror attacks of WW2 V1, V2 and bomber raids. But way less than Iranian drone strikes. Perhaps they gutless wonders should contract out their air attacks to the Iranians…

    • tsmithfield 6.2

      By that argument they should have won already. But they haven't.

      Active personnel doesn't include fighting forces, but all the supporting structures as well. If they had that many active soldiers, they wouldn't need to be mobilising would they?

      And, they have a lot of other competing strategic interests they need to cover as well, otherwise, dissatisfied regions of Russia could well rebel and Russia may not have the ability to contain that. And, they have to have sufficient forces to guard against the NATO ''threat'' if you can call it that.

      The question is what they can afford to apply towards Ukraine without weakening themselves in other strategic areas. And judging by the quality of some and age of some of the gear they are bringing to the party now, and the problems they have with logistics and support, quantity doesn't necessarily mean much. Heck, they are bringing in T62 tanks now, and artillery from the second world war from reports I have seen.

      Sending poorly equipped, poorly trained, and poorly motivated troops to the meat grinder doesn't do much for their chances IMO. All it will do is build up resentment in the Russian population until, eventually, Putin is overthrown.

    • Sanctuary 6.3

      The Russian air force is as schlerotic as the rest of the Russian armed forces. Impressive on paper, it's airforce's tactical striking power is concentrated in around 500 modern aircraft and a couple of hudred ground attack aircraft of various vintages. They all have an appalling serviceability rate of 35-40% and the pilots are poorly trained and lack modern precision guided stand off munitions and counter-measures, without which venturing into Ukrainian airspace at anything but very low altitude would be a suicide mission, since even after seven months of war they haven't been able to suppress the Ukrainian air defense net – which is soon to be supplemented by advanced western surface to air missiles. So far, at least 60 Russian aircraft have been shot down. They're airforce's main contribution has been it's bomber force launching missiles from well inside their borders. I'd forget about the Russian airforce as a major player in this war.

      The Russian army's real strength has been around 750,000-800,000 men for some time now and that includes border guards, militarised police and customs etc etc. The armies main combat power is concentrated in 160-170 battalion groups which, along with reserves, are no more than 250,000 strong – and given the widespreads corrupt practice of ghost soldiers could be as little as 175-200,000 men. This final number contextualises Russia's heavy losses in the Ukraine. After the K'yiv defeat and it's losses to elite units the Russian armies best units have been consumed in wasteful attacks in the Donbas. Russian KIA, MIA, WIA and POW losses are at least 70-80,000. Troops must be maintained in the far east. Thus, the Russian army in the Ukraine is now actually three or four fragmented and different armies. The decimated remnants of the regular army, the Wagner private army of mercenaries and criminals, Chechen irregulars, and the rag tag LPR/DPR forces. The professional core of the Russian army, such as it was, has been evisceated in the last seven months.

      This mobilisation is going to be extremely difficult for Russia. The Soviet mobilisation and training infrastructure has been completely dismantled. Russian conscripts get a few months of basic training and do no training after that, so even the "trained" troops being called up now are actually little more than raw recruits whose rusty military knowledge may or may not still extend to knowing how not shoot themselves by mistake.

  6. tsmithfield 7

    An interesting point that China may be pondering is, that back in 2013, China pledged to protect Ukraine in the case of a nuclear attack:

    "China pledges unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear Ukraine, and under the conditions of Ukraine suffering an invasion using nuclear weapons or suffering the threat of such kind of invasion, to provide Ukraine with corresponding security guarantees."

    This may be one reason why China appears to be becoming increasingly touchy about what is happening in Ukraine, and Russian threats. The Chinese influence may be one of the biggest restraints on Russia pushing the nuclear button in any respect.

  7. tsmithfield 8

    Here is a good Twitter thread on Russian mobilisation recommended by Mick Ryan (retired Australian army major general) that goes into a lot of the points made above.

  8. Blazer 9

    Here is a good analysis of Putin and the conflict by world renown Psychologist…Jordan Peterson.

    • tsmithfield 9.1

      I think you have nailed the problem with the interview right at the outset, when you put forward an opinion from a psychologist on the likely military outcome.

      But, from a broader perspective, how can you possibly claim Russia can ''win'' in Ukraine? They are failing in all the objectives they set themselves at the outset.

      One of their objectives was to limit any increase in the size of NATO. In reality, Ukraine was a million miles away from being accepted into NATO, anyway. But due to Russia's disastrous campaign in Ukraine, Sweden and Finland are now joining NATO. Putin was apparently worried about more NATO on his border. Well, have a look at how much border Finland shares with Russia.

      And, consider the loss of international influence that Russia is now suffering. It is becoming a vasal state to China, and has been losing its influence in countries such as Syria due to removing troops from Syria to prop up its efforts in Ukraine.

      And look at how much it has declined in its ability to wage war due to material losses in Ukraine and the effect of sanctions on its ability to produce the modern gear it needs.

      And this “denazification” nonsense: Russia has just given over 200 from the Azov battalion back to Ukraine in a prisoner swap:

      https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-releases-10-foreigners-captured-ukraine-after-saudi-mediation-riyadh-2022-09-21/

      Whatever happens in Ukraine, Russia has lost in nearly every measurable outcome. And it looks increasingly likely that they will lose on the battlefield as well.

      • Blazer 9.1.1

        What qualifications do you have to label Putin a psycopath…as you have in an earlier post?

        Should we only rely on ex military and their opinions as to the likely military outcome?

        Maybe none of us should…be posting.

        • tsmithfield 9.1.1.1

          I have a masters in Psychology, so I can see the signs…

          • Blazer 9.1.1.1.1

            Peterson appears to have a 'few' qualifications too.

            'Jordan Bernt Peterson (born 12 June 1962) is a Canadian media personality, clinical psychologist, author, and professor emeritus at the University of Toronto. He began to receive widespread attention as a public intellectual in the late 2010s for his views on cultural and political issues, '-Wiki

            Opinion's on the likely military outcome are many and…varied.

        • mikesh 9.1.1.2

          Not being a military person myself I have generally avoided commenting on the conduct of the war, or on the question of which side was likely to win. But if russia was "a million miles away from being accepted into NATO" what were the likes of John McCain, Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland doing in Kyiv around 2014? I understand Russia's concern.

    • observer 9.2

      There are a thousand opinion pieces on Russia/Ukraine by qualified and informed commentators. Read those.

  9. Adrian 10

    Putins main problem now especially as he appears to be emptying eastern Russian of any male that can walk is that this is the time that China has been waiting for since 1860 and theConvention of Peking when they were cheated out of the parts of Siberia that had been theirs for aeons. 162 years is a mere blink of an eye in Chinese time.

  10. joe90 11

    Why mobilisation will be an epic FU.


    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572270599535214598.html

    edit:

    this;

    In case of mobilisation, there will be:

    1) tons of new, unmotivated recruits
    2) aware they’ll be sent to Ukraine, where they likely die or get maimed
    3) stuck in Moscow, in proximity to the seat of power

    That’s revolutionary situation Image
    That is btw exactly the scenario of 1917 revolution in Russia. In November 1916 Nicholas started suspecting his ministry for internal affairs Protopopov of disloyalty and started vetting other candidatures. He offered Protopopov’s position to Krzhyzhanovsky
    Krzhyzhanovsky said yeah, I could be a minister, but I have a condition. There are 460 000 reserve troops quartered in the imperial capital of St Petersburg. These are mobilised peasants, very unmotivated. They know, they’ll soon be sent to the WWI trenches, where they die
    I want you to:

    1. Transfer some of them to the city police with an exemption from the military service
    2. Relocate the rest the FUCK OUTTA THE CAPITAL

    That’s my condition if you want to see me as a minister. Nicholas ignored it. 3 months later the Russian empire fell
    It were not the “workers” or “peasants” who did the February and then the October revolution. It were first and foremost the 460 000 conscripts of the St Petersburg garrison. Who were stuck in the capital cuz logistics and found themselves close to the seat of power. The end

  11. Arming a reluctant peasantry and attempting to send them to their death in a meat grinder, may not be the greatest chess move by Tsar Pooty

  12. Herodotus 13

    So what is our governments response what ARE these options that we have not already put into place and why have they not been put in place??

    we know what you are not going to do, as you said in 2017 Let’s do it” …. Still waiting and the seconds, minutes, hours, days ,weeks etc still tick by.

    Expelling Russian Ambassador among 'least meaningful' options – PM
    "The question has always been for us, what is the most meaningful thing we can do to bring an end to this war?

  13. joe90 14

    It's going well.

    /

  14. tsmithfield 15

    I don't know how those new recruits will even make it into Ukraine now. Most areas are now within HIMARS range. The Ukrainians have excellent intelligence and are destroying Russian gear before it even gets off the train.

    So, incoming Russian recruits might get a warm welcome in the warmest possible way.

    • SPC 15.1

      They are now close enough to use their pre HIMARS capability on Russian territory. Himars weaponry will be on the transport routes as soon as they cross the border.

      • tsmithfield 15.1.1

        I am looking forward to the US finally relenting and sending them ATACMS with a range of 300km or so. That would bring Russian air-bases in range, and may make it impractical for Russia to operate an air-force in the region.

        • Scud 15.1.1.1

          Its not going to happen, as it would give Tsar Poot's Casus Belli or Jus as bellum to use his Nukes.

          I mentioned in another thread/ post a couple of weeks.

          How ever temping it's for the Political & Military Leadership to under take Strategic Special Forces Operations (up to a depth 200km inside ones country), it must be weigh up against the possibility of Tsar Poot's of declaring Casus Bell/ Jus ad bellum to us his Nukes in defence of the Motherland.

          Which funny enough under the Laws of War & even under Article 51 of the UN Charter the right to Self Defence he can.

          Now I'm going to respond into why Tsar Poot's won't start tossing a few cans of instant sunshine about for shits and giggles.

          With all the Chemical Biological Radiological & Nuclear Defence courses that I did in the RAAF.

          The use of Radiological & Nukes were seen as the Ultimate Defence Wpn for a "Scorched Earth Defence Tactic". In other words you invade me ie cross over my legally defined borders ratified the UN.

          In plain English the use of Instant Cans of Sunshine & it's more ugly step child Radiological devices are a Defensive Wpn not a Offensive Wpn that everyone believes especially those of us one the left.

          Because who the bloody hell wants to seize or hold a charcoal radioactive waste land?

          I certainly wouldn't, would you?

          Where on the other hand Chemical & Biological Wpns are the Ultimate Wpn for attack. But I won't down that Rabbit hole, which is a fascinating subject on human stupidity towards the Science of War.

          When this senseless war started, I said Tsar Poot's won't invade Ukraine as Tsar Poot's numbers didn't stack up be it on the Frontline & on the Home Front as he is being a typical Slavic Male waving his Willy all over the place.

          Unfortunately i was provided to be wrong, as he was completely mad enough to do it.

          I also is said that the Ukrainian Government & Military Forces won't Surrender as they would "Rather Die than Live as Coward" which is the motto of the Gurkhas btw.

          Now the UkR Military has Tsar Poot's in more knots than everyones granny knot on the trailer.

          Will he use his Nukes?

          My answer is No, even his Allies would probably run for the hills if he did.

          I trust that members of the Russian Officer Corps in-charge of the various Nukes will say f*** off boss & remember this has happened before in USSR when the order was given to fire!

          Thirdly, if Tsar Poot's stupid enough to hit the big red or use its ugly step child instead.

          Then the US, UK, EU & NATO have Casus Belli/ Jus ad bellum to intervene on behalf of UkR.

          Judging by what has happened over the last few days.

          All NATO Aircraft from the Baltic to the Black Sea have all turned their Transponders off & various SMA's (Social Media Accounts) of various Units I follow have gone very silent as well expect those outside of the NATO AO.

          Tsar Poot's has been warned publicly & privately if he's uses WMD's. There will none of Obama's so-called Red Lines that were used in the Syria & elsewhere in the Sandpit towards the use of such weapons.

          Tsar Poot's pair of Two's are decidedly looking like a pair of Jokers instead.

          Anyway that's a enough of bumping my fingers on my stupid phone for now & I must toggle off for my evening meds & I need cuppa.

          And remember go the Bunnies🤣

  15. Joe90 16

    A supportive positive influence style of leadership.

  16. Stuart Munro 17

    Russia faces a difficult turning point; whether it can thrust its new conscripts into the gaps in its positions before those positions collapse and rout.

    Raw recruits restarting from the Russian border baseline are unlikely to do better than their predecessors.

    Putin's noise about 'every means at our disposal' requires some caution, but it is intended for multiple audiences. He'd be very happy if it caused the West to blink – but it is also part of his manufacturing consent within Russia. If he goes down that path, chemical weapons might be used before nukes – he has form with poisons, and he can swear blue and purple it was Ukraine that used them. That line wouldn't work at all for battlefield nukes – Ukraine doesn't have them.

    • Blazer 17.1

      Surely you jest!

      Ukraine have been fighting the whole theatre with weapons.. they never.. had.

    • tsmithfield 17.2

      The problem with chemical weapons is that they are usually best in confined spaces. But not much use out in the open. And if the wind blows the wrong way, it could have unintended consequences.

      I did see something about FAB 500's coming to the front line though. Those are heavy duty thermobaric bombs, dropped by aircraft. I think the problem with those is that they have to be dropped by fairly slow aircraft that would be an easy target for Ukrainian air defence. So, they might be best deployed in scenarios where air defences are taken out.

      The problem with this type of bombs, and tactical nukes, is that, to be effective, they need to hit concentrations of enemy troops. However, the Ukrainians have been trained by the British etc, to stay widely dispersed in a given area, then come together quickly when they are on attack so as not to give easy targets for these types of weapons.

      • Stuart Munro 17.2.1

        Ukrainians could get a pretty good kill count by applying novichok to washing machines – but more seriously, the loss of international support would be too costly for them.

        Russia is a pariah already however, and there might be some assaults wherein chemical weapons could be used to advantage – especially against static troops in defensive lines in winter.

        Part of my point though, is that tac nukes have little value against mobile light forces. Were Russia to use a nuke, the best target might be Kyiv. The international response would be punishing however.

        • tsmithfield 17.2.1.1

          There is a major complicating factor in Russia using nukes in Ukraine.

          Of course there is the international backlash, and the possibility NATO might retaliate by taking out the whole Black Sea fleet for instance. But there is another fly in the ointment. I pointed this out above, but you may have missed it.

          In 2013, China promised to protect Ukraine against nuclear attack. That was before Russia invaded Crimea, and I suspect that China did not have Russia in mind at that point. However, the Chinese do seem to be getting quite twitchy about the situation in Ukraine. So, I suspect they might be trying to protect Ukraine by putting pressure on Putin not to use nukes.

          On that basis, I am highly doubtful Russia would resort to nukes.

          • Stuart Munro 17.2.1.1.1

            Yeah – that was in part my point too, that nukes don't offer a strategic benefit compared to the costs. Chemicals, maybe – if used smartly.

            Russia probably has a few scorched earth infrastructure options left too, that would be troublesome even with conventional weapons. Nevertheless, the smart money hasn't been on Russia for some time.

            • Blazer 17.2.1.1.1.1

              'Nevertheless, the smart money hasn't been on Russia for some time.'

              How did you arrive at that conclusion..Stuart?

              • tsmithfield

                All it takes is to put a bit of thought and research into what is going on. Here are just a couple of factors:

                Firstly winter is coming. In Ukraine that means snow and frozen grounds. Nato is going to supply the Ukrainian soldiers with all they need for that environment. In contrast, the Russian soldiers are largely poorly equipped. It is doubtful their troops will be resourced to survive in the winter environment. Now Russia will have to try and equip a lot more, when they can't even equip properly the troops they have there now. The Ukrainians have become very adept at identifying and destoying Russian logistics. This is going to be a huge problem for Russia in the winter. Thus, many Russian soldiers will likely freeze to death in the trenches.

                Secondly, so far as mobilisation is concerned, Russia is supposed to be mobilising troops with recent military experience in the first draft. But, in reality, they are randomly grabbing anyone with a pulse. And, as that video points out, the Russians simply don't have the training facilities or modern equipment for them. So, it is doubtful that mobilisation will be very successful in achieving its goals because a lot of those taken are completely untrained and unwilling to be there.

                Thirdly, it is highly doubtful a lot of conscripts will even make it to the battlefield as Ukrainians have excellent intelligence as to where troops are assembling. If the link provided is correct, this batch of troops have been sent to a facility well within the range of Ukrainian Himars or even standard artillery.

                • Blazer

                  You are so one eyed and now quite condescending that it's hard to have useful dialogue with you.

                  Example -you make a statement-'

                  'I don't recall the US threatening to nuke nations it had a problem with any time in the last 70 years. Can you give any examples where they have?'

                  Despite a number of posters providing examples, you divert away with your quite obtuse understanding of logic and who is qualified to comment on military matters.

                  I think you suffer from 'Capt Mainwaring syndrome'….worried about China invading NZ..join the Home Guard!

                  • tsmithfield

                    How about you make a case for why you think Russia will win. I am sure you can make a logical, evidence-based case for that.

              • Stuart Munro

                Have you been paying attention to the financial exodus from Russia, Blazer? How about battlefield results? The force disparity was expected to produce an early victory for Russia, and initially foreign arms supplies were pretty limited. Nevertheless Ukraine repulsed the attempted invasion of Kyiv, inflicting substantial casualties on forces formerly thought to be elite at Hostomel.

                Russia will 'win'-because it can't afford to lose and it has a nuclear arsenal and more resources than Ukraine.

                You have three premises here. Let's zero out the first one first (Russia can afford to lose btw – it's the Putin cabal that can't). Ukraine can't afford to lose, which makes the war pretty just to their population, which has consequently united in the face of the external threat, bolstering morale and improving cooperation between citizens, government, and armed forces.

                it has a nuclear arsenal

                So does North Korea – but it ain't bestriding the world like a colossus. Nukes are a weapon of last resort, and not especially useful in contemporary warfare.

                and more resources than Ukraine

                Though it surely has significant resources within its territories, its ability to extract and utilize them is not infinite, and is declining as it destroys its labour force in a fruitless war of aggression. Little things like the bearings for Russian trains , being in short supply, are impacting the ability to move people and goods. Overall Russian productivity is declining in consequence, whatever their mineral assets might be.

  17. joe90 18

    Bread and circuses are fun up until it's you and yours' turn in the coliseum.

  18. Mike the Lefty 19

    If there are any (very) distant intelligent aliens watching us they must be very puzzled as to why humans seem to want to be led by the worst examples of humanity instead of the best.

    All throughout history large groups of humans have been led by people who wanted little more than blood, wealth and land to satisfy their own lust for power and had the means to wreak widespread devastation – Attila, Genghis Khan, Napoleon, Stalin, Hitler being prime examples. And now perhaps Putin wants to join this club.

    I am reminded of the old Star Trek original series episode in which Captain Kirk gets accidentally duplicated by a faulty transporter beam. One CK is gentle, civilized and good BUT is unable to make decisions. The other CK is brutal, savage and treacherous BUT has the power of decision making. The implicated message was that it was the bad side of humans that was important in being a leader.

    It seems that the makers of Star Trek summed up the human condition rather well.

  19. tsmithfield 20

    Peter Zeihan gives excellent insights into the Ukrainian conflict from the perspective of Russian demographics.

    The problem for Russia from all of this is that Russian demographics are already terrible. But what Putin is doing in this conflict is sacrificing large numbers of the demographic segment that is needed to prolong the already terminal Russian demographic profile. By throwing more into the meat grinder, the situation is just going to get worse.

    So, Putin, aiming for a short-term win in this conflict, is in fact, condemning Russia to faster doom than it would otherwise be experiencing. And, not only due to Russians going in to the conflict. But also because the EU is now looking to offer refugee status for Russians who flee mobilisation. For a young Russian facing the alternative of likely death in Ukraine compared to a new future in Europe, I know which I would be choosing.

    The same is true for Ukraine in all of this. Except at the end of this conflict there will be massive rebuilding in Ukraine which will be drawing in masses of immigrant workers, many of whom may stay and help replenish the Ukrainian demographic profile.

  20. joe90 21

    Tankies, do a little research into Alexei Milchakov's claims to fame.

    The unofficial division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation DShRG "Rusich", which is headed by the Russian neo-Nazi Alexei Milchakov, has published instructions for the interrogation and execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war. The corresponding publication appeared in the Telegram channel of the occupation formation, reports Focus .

    The Rusich division of the DShRG called on the Russians not to inform their command about the presence of captured Ukrainian soldiers. If the report was carried out in order to improve accountability, the soldiers should tell the commanders about the wound from which the prisoner of war could die.

    To obtain the necessary information, the captors are advised to use torture against the hostages.

    "Interrogate first without physical pressure, then again, with elements of influence such as: cutting off fingers, cutting off an ear, blows to the groin and joints, driving needles under the nails. The main thing is that the enemy can consciously answer questions. Answers can be filmed" , – the instruction of the occupiers says.

    […]

    “It is desirable that everyone take part in this (in the killing of prisoners of war – ed.) in order to keep the secret of what happened in the future. The second option is to injure the prisoners and send them to the hospital. It is necessary to inflict a wound in the liver area in order to exclude the chance of survival, and "It is recommended to shoot from a short distance through an aramid bag in order to avoid burns on the body, which can show the intentional nature of the injury. Do not be afraid to kill the prisoners!" – said representatives of the unofficial division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and added that there would be no punishment for the execution of prisoners of war by the command.

    In addition, DShRG "Rusich", which is headed by neo-Nazi Alexei Milchakov, offers the Russians to "make money" on the bodies of captured Ukrainians. For a "reward" in the amount of $2-5 thousand, which will be credited to bitcoin wallets, military personnel can transfer information about the burial of fighters to relatives.

    https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/530295-neonacisty-dshrg-rusich-prizyvayut-rossiyan-pytat-i-kaznit-ukrainskih-voennoplennyh-foto

    google translate

  21. Robert Guyton 22

    100 comments and not one person make the joke about Putin riding bear-back!

  22. Blazer 23

    Understanding the proxy war…and the U.S position.

    Peace was on the table in April and Bojo was despatched to nix it…according to Tucker…

    • tsmithfield 23.1

      Resorting to Tucker Carlson lol?

      Though probably not surprising, even though he Carslon has some truly bizarre theories about the conflict. Though, I imagine you would fit well with him, because, as the article says:

      Carlson’s evidence for all of these claims consists almost entirely of Carlson’s strategic sarcasm reserve. He provides no evidence for any of his empirical claims or theories.

      • Blazer 23.1.1

        Tucker says that Putin is making nuclear threats…..that's your position..is it not?

        • aj 23.1.1.1

          Peace was on the table in April and Bojo was despatched to nix it

          For those who dislike Tucker Carlson but want to explore these issues.

          Ben Abelow is a guest for 34 minutes with Aaron Maté and Katie Halper and discusses not only the Boris Johnson 'nix-it' mission but also the humanitarian issues in this conflict, arms control moves in the lead-up, and the risk of nuclear war.

          • tsmithfield 23.1.1.1.1

            According to Johnson he feared Ukraine was being coerced into the deal.

            But, probably, more telling was that this was about the time that the Bucha atrocities were discovered. And this did as much to scupper a peace deal than anything else.

            • lprent 23.1.1.1.1.1

              Yep. Wikipedia has a good summary.

              The Bucha massacre (Ukrainian: Бучанська різанина) was the killing and abuse of Ukrainian civilians by Russian Armed Forces during the fight for and occupation of the Ukrainian city of Bucha amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photographic and video evidence of the massacre emerged on 1 April 2022 after Russian forces withdrew from the city.[12][13]

              According to local authorities, 458 bodies have been recovered from the town, including 9 children under the age of 18; among the victims, 419 people were killed by weapons and 39 appeared to have died of natural causes, possibly related to the occupation.[14][15] Photos showed corpses of civilians, lined up with their hands bound behind their backs, shot at point-blank range, which ostensibly gave proof that summary executions had taken place.[16] An inquiry by Radio Free Europe reported the use of a basement beneath a campground as a torture chamber.[17][18] Many bodies were found mutilated and burnt,[19][20] and girls as young as fourteen reported being raped by Russian soldiers.[19][21] Ukraine has asked the International Criminal Court to investigate what happened in Bucha as part of its ongoing investigation of the invasion in order to determine whether a series of Russian war crimes or crimes against humanity were committed.[22][23]

        • tsmithfield 23.1.1.2

          Yes. But making threats and acting on them is two different things. In fact, it could be argued that if Putin was serious he would act without making threats. By making a threat, it simply gives the other side a chance to prepare.

          Ukraine made absolutely no threats about attacking around Kharkiv. If they had, the Russians could have prepared for that.

    • lprent 23.2

      You’re assuming that the US actually had the capability to hold Ukraine back? You’re dreaming. It is a sovereign state

      Remember that significiant armaments didn’t arrive into Ukraine until May/June, and yet the Russian forces got thrown back into the East by mid April. Where they squandered troops in frontal assaults after artillery bombardment for very little gain.

      What has been noticeable is that the Ukrainian population is largely supportive of their defensive war. The Russian Fed citizens have to date mostly been apathetic because it didn’t impact them.

      Besides if the US or NATO had tried to do the dirty on Ukraine by selling them down the river. The domestic political consequences would have been appalling for those doing it. The Ukrainian government hasn’t exactly been quiet about anyone getting between them and their own defence.

      Tucker Coulson? Really.. The guy is a mindless shockjock who is too lazy and probably too stupid to think about issues. Certainly he contradicts himself regularly over the years because he has a incoherent personal philosophy that mainly seems to consist of a fear complex that his mike may be taken away from him. Reminds me of Mike Hosking.

      Doesn’t surprise me that you look at him as a fount of news. Tucker also likes simpleton bullshit and lying rather than accuracy and facts as well.

    • Shanreagh 23.3

      Good grief Tucker Carlson, nek minit the 45th president will be there with Marjory Taylor Greene and De Santis as the heavy hitters. surprise

  23. Blazer 24

    AFAIK Carlson does not have a masters degree in psychology…but he is quite influential and entitled to his opinion.

    Fox News host Tucker Carlson has had a mixed 2022. On the one hand, he hosts the highest rated show in cable news .

    • tsmithfield 24.1

      Do you believe Trump won the election as well?

      I agree that Carlson is entitled to his opinion. Whether his opinion is worth anything is another matter.

      • Blazer 24.1.1

        Sure he did in 2016.

        The post you referenced is just another opinion piece by someone who most americans don't…know.

        • tsmithfield 24.1.1.1

          Carlson's opinion is about as valid on the Ukraine conflict as Jordan Peterson's opinion is on whether Russia will win.

          Still waiting for you to respond to my challenge above:

          How about you make a case for why you think Russia will win. I am sure you can make a logical, evidence-based case for that.

          And what observer just said below.

          • Blazer 24.1.1.1.1

            Russia will 'win'-because it can't afford to lose and it has a nuclear arsenal and more resources than Ukraine.

            Btw…can you give me your expert ,psychological analysis of Biden's…behavioural characteristics….thx in advance.

            • tsmithfield 24.1.1.1.1.1

              At least you did provide a bit of logic, although very superficial.

              Here are a couple of questions for you:

              If you consider the economies of Ukraine & NATO (including the US) compared to the economy of Russia, who do you think can afford to keep the war going the longest? After all, we aren't comparing Russia and Ukraine. We are comparing Russia versus Ukraine and its backers.

              To what degree has Russia already expended its precision munitions, and how easy is it to replace these, and other equipment given the Western sanctions on electronics Russia needs to produce this stuff?

              Does Russia have a bigger combat force that Ukraine right now? Which of the forces is getting better resourced and trained?

              You might find Perun, who provides excellent analysis into war logistics informative in that respect.

              Would Russia actually use nukes against Ukraine given that even China has pledged to protect Ukraine from nuclear attack and that the other consequences from Nato would be devastating (eg perhaps sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet as is rumoured).

              • Blazer

                'superficial logic'…now…!laugh

                Q1-its more about military capability in the 'now'..than economies.Europes energy crisis is still to unfold.

                As for resolute resistance…the Russians have good form.

                Q2-I don't know the answer to this…and would surprised if you do!

                Q3-Russia.

                Q4..'would Russia….'If there was no other option I expect it would.Pledges are broken all the time.In WW2 Germany and the USSR had a non-aggression pact.

                Now you can answer this…can you give me your expert ,psychological analysis of Biden's…behavioural characteristics….thx in advance.

                • tsmithfield

                  I haven't really analyzed Biden. It is hard to get objective information on him given that most information is politically tainted one way or the other. And he is very old and seems to have borderline dementia.

                  The biggest thing that surprises me about US presidents that they often are so old that they are nearly ready for a retirement home. It is hard to see how people with that age would be able to embrace new ideas and strategies easily, or be able to come up with them.

                  Q1. I agree that Europe's energy crisis is starting to unfold. But that cuts both ways. By Russia cutting off Europe from gas supplies, they are also cutting off a large amount of foreign currency that could be used to wage war. Also, judging by recent speeches from Germany and France (who were arguably the keenest to see deal done), Russian mobilisation has made it clear to them that a peace deal won't be possible, so the only option now is to support Ukraine, and even increase that support.

                  Q2. So far as Russia's supply of munitions is concerned, there are a number of indications they are running short. For instance, they have been sourcing drones from Iran, and recently approached North Korea for artillery shells. Also, they have started repurposing S300 anti-aircraft missiles to use as land attack weapons, presumably because of shortages of the other stuff.

                  One of the big problems for Russia is that a lot of their equipment relies on computer chips from the US, that are of course, blocked by sanctions. So, replenishing their missiles etc isn't that easy. And they are bringing out T64 tanks now, which date back to the 1960s I think, and are definitely suboptimal. Whereas, Ukraine is getting much more advanced gear.

                  Q3. Ukraine has started mobilisation much earlier than Russia. Plus they have been sending their troops to Britain/Europe, and the US for training. Last time I saw, Ukraine had an army of around 700000, which is a lot more than Russia can bring to the party right now. Hence why Russia is mobilising. But too late I think.

                  Q4. I don't think China would protect Ukraine by actually attacking Russia to defend Ukraine. But there have been indications that China has been expressing its displeasure at the way things are going in Ukraine, and probably the biggest way they could defend Ukraine would be to threaten to withdraw support from Russia in the case of the use of nukes. Given Russia's weak position, they simply can't afford to lose that ally.

                  Good to see you engaging with some thought. Remember that some of us here study all this at quite some depth. So, you really need to educate yourself if you want to engage in meaningful debate. Otherwise you will come across as fairly trite and shallow.

                  • Blazer

                    You are C.I.C of the armchair generals.

                    And I don't particularly give a shit of whether you or any of your home guard think I'm trite or shallow,just because I do not accept your speculation and varied, regurgitated…propaganda.

                    So ,font of knowledge…how does it all play out?

                    • tsmithfield

                      I thought you were improving…Sigh.

                      I don't consider myself an armchair general. Only that I read a lot of authorative sources from people who actually have good insight on what is going on. The same as others here.

                      It is OK to have an opinion that disagrees with us. But at least make sure it is an informed opinion.

                • Stuart Munro

                  As for resolute resistance…the Russians have good form.

                  Are you referring to Tannenberg, or to Tsushima Strait? Because those battles were Russian playing away, as it is at present in Ukraine.

                  Russia is not facing an existential threat, as it was at Stalingrad, which goes some way to explain their current lousy morale.

                  • Blazer

                    'Russia is not facing an existential threat, as it was at Stalingrad, which goes some way to explain their current lousy morale.'

                    I thought that is exactly the way it is being framed in Russia….and with all this nuke talk…ask yourself!

                    • Stuart Munro

                      Ask myself what you patronizing fool?

                      How about you go right out on a limb and state clearly wtf you are trying to hint at – for I, and I am sure many others are tired of your bullshit.

                  • Blazer

                    Apparently Putin's message to Russia is that the West is trying to destroy their country.

                    Stick to the topic and the message.You don't have to read my posts or respond to them or speak for anyone …else.

                    • Stuart Munro

                      Apparently Putin's message to Russia is that the West is trying to destroy their country.

                      Oh – did you imagine that we were not following Russian state propaganda? How quaint.

                      Disenchantment is growing with Putin's regime in response to conscription and to successive military failures. Games like the "referenda" will only have a limited effect in terms of manufacturing consent.

                      You don't have to read my posts or respond to them

                      I consider it a public service to debunk bullshit – and I know a thing or two about the subject matter.

                    • Blazer

                      'I consider it a public service to debunk bullshit – and I know a thing or two about the subject matter.'

                      Do you really…yet to see anything to suggest your knowledge of the situation is anything other than western msm….reporting.

            • lprent 24.1.1.1.1.2

              Unwilling, poorly trained and equipped conscripted troops have been losing wars since 1905. Why would you feel that this dumbarse move would be any different. Especially as they are conscripting older males with no military training what so ever, probably leaving their families to starve or freeze, and adding in anti-war protesters to the mix. Sounds like Putin wants the revolution to happen against him.

              Nuclear weapons aren’t particularly useful on a battlefield. Read this analysis laying out the basic principles and issues for tactical nukes. They key point is

              To be sure, Russia’s precision munitions have often missed their target in this war, and are running short. But tactical nuclear weapons would not be a viable substitute: huge numbers would have to be used to produce a lasting military effect. One study of India-Pakistan scenarios concludes that a five-kiloton nuclear bomb might destroy as few as 13 tanks if they were dispersed. In any event, Russia has shown vanishingly little ability to locate and strike moving targets.

              Not to mention that the most in danger would be the poorly trained and equipped Russian Federation conscripts. Plus

              Any decision to break the nuclear taboo would also jeopardise Russia’s relationship with friendly or non-aligned countries, like China and India. And a strike on Ukraine might lead to precisely the opposite outcome to that sought by Mr Putin since the beginning of the war: the dispatch of Western forces, such as specialist radiological teams, into Ukraine.

    • observer 24.2

      If you have to resort to "entitled to his opinion" then that's pretty desperate. Who is not?

      I don't know when or why you started down the far right rabbit hole (relying on Murdoch media, and – bizarrely – thinking it actually strengthens your case) but it's sad.

      Try widening your searches, you're not learning much from these stooges.

      • Blazer 24.2.1

        It's all opinion…you can find pro or con.

        I am far from convinced the U.S has altruistic motivations re this conflict.

        'Stooges'…indeed.

        • Stuart Munro 24.2.1.1

          Quite – stooges have more self respect. Stick to dupes.

        • Shanreagh 24.2.1.2

          I am far from convinced the U.S has altruistic motivations re this conflict.

          And Russia has? They seem pretty self interested/selfish to me and not at all altruistic.

          • Blazer 24.2.1.2.1

            No Russia is not being altruistic at all.

            When I look at a map however I see Ukraine bordering Russia….the U.S.A seems a very long way from this theatre of war.

            Do you think the U.S is primarily concerned about democracy and Ukrainian sovereignty..or is there …some other motivation here?

            • Stuart Munro 24.2.1.2.1.1

              Of course the US is disposed to contain Putin's genocidal aggressions.

              Just as Britain did with Hitler, they ignored, or found it inconvenient to intervene in his adventures in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine 2014 and so on. But there comes a point at which giving the monster free rein becomes excessive. In WWII it was Poland, this time it is Ukraine.

              Of course we know you've been duped by the narrative that Ukraine is somehow Russian, and so that Putin gets to throw nukes. It may be news to you, but other countries have nukes too. Delivery vehicle technology is much evolved from the days of the Cuban crisis, such that a hundred kilometers closer to Moscow is really neither here nor there. Nor can other powers merely roll over every time Putin makes nuclear threats, as, in his desperation, he is increasingly wont to do.

              The Ukraine conflict is an existential threat to Putin, not to Russia. And there is nothing in his arsenal the launch of which will save him.

            • RedLogix 24.2.1.2.1.2

              You might want to consider that the only significant war the Russian military have won in the modern era was WW2. Yet even then it would have been impossible without the US supplying massive amounts of crucial assistance:

              • 400,000 jeeps & trucks
              • 14,000 airplanes
              • 8,000 tractors
              • 13,000 tanks
              • 1.5 million blankets
              • 15 million pairs of army boots
              • 107,000 tons of cotton
              • 2.7 million tons of petrol products
              • 4.5 million tons of food

              The US motivation in this war is very similar, only this time the madman is not Hitler but Putin – and to stop him in Ukraine rather than Poland, Lativia or Romania, all NATO countries that would invoke an entirely different response.

              Because if you think this crisis risks a dangerous outcome, then on the current evidence of Russian incompetence a direct conflict between Russia and NATO would quickly degenerate into a catastrophic defeat that would most likely result in Russia using nukes as a desperate last resort.

              Instead NATO's goal in this conflict is not to attack and threaten Russia itself, but to destabilise the Kremlin to the point where Putin and his cronies are ousted from power. A political reset that opens up the possibility of a negotiated peace.

              Of course all of this is secondary to the Ukrainian people's astonishing determination to defend their homeland. Without this absolutely central consideration – everything else would be mute.

              • Blazer

                O.K…so its a stop the 'madman' war.

                Just like Saddam,Gaddafi,Bin Laden…..and all the other 'bad' people the U.S identify from time to time.

                Revolt from within for regime change ….dunno..

                Why Putin is still so popular in Russia – Asia Times

                • RedLogix

                  I agree – the deal is the Russian people will passively tolerate Putin's kleptocratic autocracy and it's military mis-adventures just as long as it keeps out of their lives and delivers relative stability. Given that even now Putin is still better than their leaders for at least two centuries prior, this is not a high bar to leap over.

                  Defeats and mass conscriptions might well change that calculus.

                • Stuart Munro

                  Yes it is a stop the madman war. This time however, they've got a real one, not a broken-backed dictator, and the nukes are not a product of dubious capability calculations and rumours of yellowcake.

                  Just like Saddam,Gaddafi,Bin Laden

                  The problem with over-generalizations like this is that you lose meaningful content. Putin is pretty different to the run-of-the mill dissenting third world despot. He's an espiocrat that spent a great part of his life conspiring to destroy the West. His disinformation campaigns in particular have been extremely successful – but now that he is exposed as a malefactor other states are beginning to curtail those activities.

                  He has a reasonably high level of support in Russia – but losses and defeats and loss of freedoms will erode that pretty rapidly. A nuke cannot readily get him out of that pickle – only the West bowing to nuclear blackmail can.

                  The problem for the West is, if they humour his threat, he'll be back for more before you can say "knife". Fortunately, perhaps, Ukraine will not leave matters to vacillating bureaucrats.

                  • Blazer

                    'The problem with over-generalizations like this is that you lose meaningful content. Putin is pretty different to the run-of-the mill dissenting third world despot. He's an espiocrat that spent a great part of his life conspiring to destroy the West.'

                    I see a valid comparison.Those mentioned presented a threat to the U.S.A's domination of oil rich regions.

                    They ,just like Putin are cast as 'mad man'…to the public.

                    America relies on their global financial muscle to maintain their hegemony and control the IMF,World Bank,B.I.S and SWIFT .

                    Russia is one of many countries that want to dedollarise world trade.

                    America's foreign policy priority is maintaining the status quo…it is vital them.

                    That's why they have a strategy of encirclement/containment of countries like Russia and China .

                    • Stuart Munro

                      Sure there's a valid comparison – but putting Putin on a par with non-threats like Saddam Hussein – is stretching willful ignorance to the point of disinformation. Putin is an agent in the current conflict – its instigator in fact. This war is one of those rare occasions when the US is not the malefactor.

                      Any country that has the capacity is going to exercise a policy of containment in respect of bellicose neighbours, and, while it remains containment, it is perfectly proper that they do so. Russia under Putin has gone further, into invasion, repression and genocide, and his policy towards Ukrainians is likewise genocidal.

                      To the extent that you pretend to progressive values, how do you explain your determination to whitewash the actions of this war criminal?

                    • Blazer

                      Russia is not a neighbour of America.

                      Ukraine is a satellite state of the U.S

                      You say Saddam was not a threat…yet the death and destruction inflicted by the U.S is excused because 'we relied on false intelligence'!Talk about whitewashing.

                      You appear to condone U.S bullying of other nations and we know they have used thinly veiled, nuclear blackmail threats before.

                      Respected commentators like Hudson,Sachs,Chomsky,etc..can break down this illusion of 'american exceptionalism'..for exactly what it is.

                      You seem convinced its a black and white situation.

                      There is a plethora of information that the U.S is protagonist in the current situation.

                      They are still smarting from Russia neutering them in Syria and Venezuela.

                      Why do you think the BRIC countries do not strongly condemn Russia?

                    • Stuart Munro

                      Ukraine is a satellite state of the U.S

                      Poppycock.

                      You say Saddam was not a threat…yet the death and destruction inflicted by the U.S is excused because 'we relied on false intelligence'!Talk about whitewashing.

                      Who said it's excused? The casus belli of the first gulf war, though tainted, was sufficient to attract significant international support, since it involved the invasion of another country. The second gulf war was without justification, and did not attract international support. Calls for W to be indicted for warcrimes continue.

                      Putin is not merely cast as a madman, he behaves like one – sufficiently so that he poses a threat to his neighbours, and, not content with that, he goes on to threaten major European powers with some frequency.

                      You appear to condone U.S bullying of other nations

                      The hegemon has a number of duties, if they wish to be perceived as a world leader. That can include dealing with unrealistic excesses of aggression, like Putin's genocidal ambitions.

                      There is a plethora of information that the U.S is protagonist in the current situation.

                      How about you actually produce some then. And don't think peddling Putin's propaganda about US encirclement will make your case – the US has often been aggressive in pursuit of its geopolitical agendas – but it has not established basing in Ukraine, which it certainly would have done were that its intention.

                      Why do you think the BRIC countries do not strongly condemn Russia?

                      They are keeping their options open – and many of them have expansionist ambitions of their own that would not bear close examination. Are you going to try to tell us that they suffer from an excess of scruples?

                  • Blazer

                    1-'poppycock'

                    'The Ukrainian issue has become, in the eyes of the West, a simple matter of Russian aggression. Evidence is routinely given that references the annexation by Russia of the Crimea. Whether Russia was justified in such an action is, however, not the question. The manner in which Ukraine came to be a virtual fiefdom of the US is of the utmost importance. The interference of the US in what came to be known as the Maidan Revolution of 2013, and the active participation of openly fascist organisations in that movement, made it clear as to what the future of relations between Ukraine and Russia and, importantly, the US would be. Since that moment, Ukraine has played a key role in US maneuvering in the region.'

                    The US role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict | Green Left

                    • roblogic

                      It is one thing to be critical of America, or even to hate its global ambitions, but quite another to turn a blind eye to the war crimes of Putin and his savagery for your own partisan ideology.

                    • Stuart Munro

                      With the possible exception of Craig Murray, that is the least supported and most biased piece of unsubstantiated nonsense I have ever seen.

                      Poppycock.

                      Find something real, if you can, to support your assertions.

                    • Blazer

                      @robologic…no one is turning a blind eye to war crimes. they occur to both sides in every war.

                      @Munro…are Jeff Sachs and Michael Hudson acceptable sources for you?

                    • Stuart Munro

                      Jeff Sachs and Michael Hudson acceptable sources for you?

                      That would depend upon the arguments they try to make, and the degree to which they are able to support them.

                      They have a pretty uphill task however, since Putin has basically done everything one should not do to win influence and support in neighbouring countries, and lies with a frequency that puts even Kim Jong Eun to shame. One needs a pretty remarkable alibi for mass graves.

                    • Blazer

                      Here is an even handed discussion with interesting positions from 4 contributers.

  24. Historian Pete 25

    There have been various predictions of the end resultof the conflict.. Here is mine.My qualifications: I have a Degree in History, am a trained history teacher, and have been studying History for over 55 years.

    The Ukraine and Nato will lose. Russia believes it has been put in a position of an existential threat, it has stated so repeatedly, and it has been ignored repeatedly. It may well use Nuclear weapons for the same reason that the U.S. used them on Japan ,and for the same reason that the U.S. has repeatedly threatened to use them, like in the Cuban Missile Crisis.The U.S. has reneged on the understanding gained during the Cuban missile crisis by putting Russia under threat of conventional missiles that can be converted overnight into nuclear missiles[from nearby countries.] So Russia will try to use conventional weapons. If this fails it will use low yield Nuclear weapons.There is a strong likelihood that this will degenerate into a full nuclear exchange with the U.S/ Uk etc . One way or other, Nato and the Ukraine will lose. As for Russia and the U.S.? That is the debateable bit , with several intriguing possibilities!!!

    • tsmithfield 25.1

      As a history teacher, you will know that China has pledged to protect Ukraine from nuclear attack?

      So, how do you think China would respond to Russia if it were to use nukes and put China in the embarrassing position of being called on its pledge? Given Russia is now essentially a vassal state to China, how do you think all this will play out between Russia and China?

    • observer 25.2

      There is a strong likelihood that this will degenerate into a full nuclear exchange with the U.S/ Uk etc . One way or other, Nato and the Ukraine will lose.

      The second sentence might be true (we simply don't know yet), but the first sentence is not about Russia or Ukraine or anybody else winning or losing. It would be beyond anything that humanity has ever imagined.

      Not pressing that button is the first and last necessity here. Saying "yeah but whatabout whatabout" is not going to be much comfort if that happens. Nobody gets to justify that deed.

      • Historian Pete 25.2.1

        "It would be beyond anything that humanity has imagined."

        Humanity has already imagined it. Check out the eye witness descriptions of the people who survived Nagasaki and Hiroshima!!

        Also I was 16 at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis. I lived the spine chilling fear of waiting to see if we would live or die as the Soviet Union ships with their Nuclear Missile cargo approached Cuba!!!

        • Obtrectator 25.2.1.1

          And if that still doesn't convince you, find a copy of the UK TV movie Threads, screened in the mid-1980s. Failing that, find someone who saw it. They'll tell you. The immediate casualties in a nuclear exchange would only be the start of the ruination.

        • observer 25.2.1.2

          I don't need a history lesson on Hiroshima or Nagasaki, thanks. But you might need to update your science homework. A 21st century nuclear conflict would be a thousand times worse – even what you call "low yield" nuclear weapons contain far more destruction than Fat Man and Little Boy.

          To repeat: not getting to that point is everything. Justifying is nothing.

          • tsmithfield 25.2.1.2.1

            Exactly, and that is one reason why I doubt it will happen. Even if Putin is suicidal enough to push the button, there are others in the chain of command who have family and friends in Russia who they probably don't want to see getting nuked.

            As I said, why threaten something if you actually intend to carry out the threat?

            NATO will be watching every move Russia makes with respect to nukes now, and will probably have their own missiles targeting Russian nuclear silos and anything else they know about so they can do a preventive strike before Russia has the chance to launch anything if they think Russia is on the verge of launching.

            • Blazer 25.2.1.2.1.1

              'NATO will be watching every move Russia makes with respect to nukes now, and will probably have their own missiles targeting Russian nuclear silos and anything else they know about so they can do a preventive strike before Russia has the chance to launch anything if they think Russia is on the verge of launching.'

              Ya think so..Capt!laugh

  25. joe90 26

    Uncle Vova no-mates.

    Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Russian President Vladimir Putin must return all land that Russia has occupied, including Crimea.

    The Black Sea peninsula should be returned to its “rightful owners,” Erdoğan told PBS NewsHour on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, in comments likely to provoke ire in Moscow.

    [..]

    Erdoğan said he had been telling Putin this since 2014. “But since then, unfortunately, no step has been taken forward,” he added.

    The remarks make him the latest world leader with continuing ties to Russia to deal Putin a rhetorical blow in recent days. India’s Narendra Modi raised concerns last week about the Russian president’s ongoing war on Ukraine, and Putin himself admitted China’s Xi Jinping expressed “concerns” as well.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/return-crimea-turkey-president-erdogan-putin-russia/

    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was careful not to condemn the war but said that China’s firm stance is that “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected. The purposes of the principles of the U.N. Charter should be observed.”

    Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said “the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict is a matter of a profound concern for the international community.” He called for accountability for atrocities and abuses committed in Ukraine. “If egregious attacks committed in broad daylight are left unpunished, this council must reflect on the signals we are sending on impunity. There must be consistency if we are to ensure credibility,” he said.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bc-us-un-general-assembly-russia-isolation_n_632dd3a9e4b00f7fcb522fe2

  26. joe90 27

    Erdogan fancies himself a latter day Ottoman Sultan and keeper of the legacy of Empire and Islam in Eastern Europe.

    He ain't having a larger regional conflict that puts tens of millions of ethnic Turks and Muslims in harms way.

  27. tsmithfield 28

    For those wanting to argue how Russia might win this war, then this is an excellent video that explains Putins strategy, and how it is going to take a lot of resolve on the part of Europe to keep united around Ukraine.

    This is the sort of content the likes of Blazer et al should be bringing to the table to make their case.

    • tsmithfield 28.1

      The video explains Putin's energy strategy with winter coming in Europe.

      With inflation already high, and Putin having cut off gas supplies as well, Putin is hoping for mass protests and that popularity will start to increase for right-wing (Russian leaning) politicians. The hope is that this pressure will start to fracture the Western alliance, and therefore, support for Ukraine from the NATO allies will be undermined.

      That is why the NATO allies need to have a co-ordinated strategy to manage this issue, and ensure that people are able to keep themselves warm during winter.

      • Blazer 28.1.1

        And this video with Professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University U.S.A gives a real insight into America's foreign policy and its strategies to maintain hegemony at all costs.

        Sachs has worked for Poland and Russia as an economic advisor as long ago as the 90's.(15mins in)

        • SPC 28.1.1.1

          The path not taken – George Kennan architect of the containment policy advised against isolating Russia.

          The withdrawal of the UK from the EU was the right time to act on that and de-couple NATO from Europe (a USA Canada UK Norway NATO and a defence treaty with the EU – and the EU also having a defence treaty with Russia). In that environment a EU-Ukraine/Russia FTA (the Warsaw Pact nations and Baltic States as members of the EU). Something neither Trump, or Biden, considered but which would have been leverage to get Putin to make concessions re Ukraine.

          Taiwan, the concern is the Chinese approach in the South China Seas claiming atolls as island territory and the impasse over Taiwan. The short message to Beijing, they can have one and not both. If they want Taiwan, they dismantle the island bases and withdraw all claim to the territory. Then Taiwan would be recognised as part of mainland China … from 2049. Talks between Beijing and Taipei could then occur on that basis. The premise being Taipei concede nothing now but face takeover in 2049, or Taipei concede a transition arrangement before 2049 in return for some autonomy after 2049.

  28. infused 29

    You're likely to get tactical nukes.

    Watch the new recruits. Many can barely stand.

  29. tsmithfield 30

    An excellent video here. The argument is that Ukraine will struggle to eject Russia from Ukraine if Russia mobilises 1 million or more soldiers as Russian sources apparently suggest.

    But, that the best way to defeat Russia is not militarily, but rather economically. The video is well worth watching. As pointed out, by far the largest Russian export is oil. Due to the West no longer purchasing Russian oil due to the war, the main customers for Russian oil are China and India who receive a 30% discount on oil purchased from Russia.

    The problem for Russia is that reserve banks world wide are increasing interest rates, which has a natural effect of decreasing oil prices. It has now fallen from a peak of over $120 USD per barrel at the start of the conflict to $79 per barrel now, with a strong downward trend. So, at the Russian discounted return from China and India is around $55 US per barrel.

    Prior to the conflict, the cost of production per barrel of oil was $30-40 USD per barrel. However, the cost of production has likely increased considerably since then for a number of reasons. Firstly, western oil firms leaving Russia, making it difficult for Russia to get parts and repair their oil infrastructure. Secondly, difficulty to get workers due to very low unemployment in Russia (around 3.9%) due to Russians leaving, a problem that will be compounded by mobilisation, and that Russian oil has to be transhipped due to war complications. (that is loading from smaller ships to larger ships at sea).

    Thus, even now, the cost of oil production in Russia may be very close to the sell price. Along with that, they are no longer selling their gas to Germany, thus cutting off another revenue stream.

    Thus, it maybe that Russia is soon simply unable to fund its war and may not have much choice but to leave.

    The west could also make the situation even less tenable to Russia by putting pressure on Greece to cease being a hub for Russian oil transhipments.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/greece-emerging-new-hub-russian-ship-to-ship-fuel-oil-exports-data-shows-2022-05-19/

    • SPC 30.1

      Full circle back to the 1980's. Late 1970's/1980 high oil prices and then the decline and onto the fall of the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact.

  30. tsmithfield 31

    Yes. I don't think Ukraine needs to win militarily. Just keep getting support from the West until Russia runs out of money, which may not be too far away.

  31. joe90 32

    Russians (that's right, not "Orcs" and not "Rashists") bring death and ruin to our home. Putin could not have committed these crimes if it were not for one hundred and forty million murderers, sandbags and silent slaves. Russian mothers should know – we will kill everyone who comes to us with weapons. #russiaisaterrorisstate

    Yurii Kochevenko

  32. Karl Sinclair 33

    The following people essentially said Ukraine shouldn’t join NATO:

    Noam Chomsky

    Helen Clarke

    Prof Jeffrey Sachs

    Prof John Mearsheimer

    Col Douglas Macgregor

    (& many more good thinkers)

    Mickey Savage…take some time out mate and review what they have said…

    Meanwhile this makes me turn to this poem (Jacinda Ardern and your diplomatic core should to)

    When You See Millions of the Mouthless Dead'

    BY CHARLES HAMILTON SORLEY

    When you see millions of the mouthless dead

    Across your dreams in pale battalions go,

    Say not soft things as other men have said,

    That you'll remember. For you need not so.

    Give them not praise. For, deaf, how should they know

    It is not curses heaped on each gashed head?

    Nor tears. Their blind eyes see not your tears flow.

    Nor honour. It is easy to be dead.

    Say only this, “They are dead.” Then add thereto,

    “Yet many a better one has died before.”

    Then, scanning all the o'ercrowded mass, should you

    Perceive one face that you loved heretofore,

    It is a spook. None wears the face you knew.

    Great death has made all his for evermore.

    Poem explained: https://interestingliterature.com/2016/02/a-short-analysis-of-charles-sorleys-when-you-see-millions-of-the-mouthless-dead/

    Sorley’s poem is stark and uncompromising. Sorley is not seeking to console us: his reason for telling us not to bother praising or weeping for the fallen soldiers is because these ghosts are mere shadows of the men they were, and our tears or words now mean nothing to them.

    60k Ukraines dead due to Sinister diplomacy? What do you think

  33. joe90 34

    Dagestan.

    Another video from the Endirey turn, where the residents of Endirey blocked the highway protesting against the mobilization of their children.

    https://t.me/askrasul/31765

    • joe90 34.1

    • Blazer 34.2

      Military conscription was a feature of western countries for decades.

      A white feather in the letterbox at the least and imprisonment at worse for the uncooperative.

      That indomitable hero of U.S imperialism Henry Kissinger,described frontline troops…as 'dumb animals'.

      • joe90 34.2.1

        WTF has Woodward and Bernstein writing that Kissinger reputedly told Alexander Haig that he, Kissinger, viewed military men as dumb, stupid animals to be used as pawns for foreign policy got to do with Russia's ethnic cleansing by conscription?

        In occupied Crimea, Crimean Tatars received 90% of summonses, such mobilization can lead to genocide, reported the non-governmental organization KrymSOS

        According to preliminary estimates, Crimean Tatars received about 90% of summonses in Crimea. At the same time, Crimean Tatars make up 13-15% of the peninsula's population," said KrymSOS analyst Yevgeny Yaroshenko.

        translation

        • Blazer 34.2.1.1

          'viewed military men as dumb, stupid animals to be used as pawns for foreign policy got to do with Russia's ethnic cleansing by conscription?'

          It illustrates the futile,reality of War….the contempt shown by politicians towards the actual combatants who sometimes are not even sure…what they're fighting…for.

  34. Stephen D 35

    I’m kinda hoping that the CIA are covertly involved in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the central Asian states fomenting trouble to put even more pressure on, and stretch Russian resources further.

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Language provides hope for Tuvalu
    Climate change continues to present a major risk for the island nation of Tuvalu, which means sustaining te gana Tuvalu, both on home soil and in New Zealand Aotearoa, has never been more important, Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio said. The Tuvalu Auckland Community Trust and wider Tuvalu ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Minister Sio to attend Asian Development Bank meeting in Manila
    Associate Foreign Affairs Minister Aupito William Sio travels to the Philippines this weekend to represent Aotearoa New Zealand at the 55th Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Board of Governors in Manila. “The ADB Annual Meeting provides an opportunity to engage with other ADB member countries, including those ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • United Nations General Assembly National Statement
    E ngā Mana, e ngā Reo, Rau Rangatira mā kua huihui mai nei i tēnei Whare Nui o te Ao Ngā mihi maioha ki a koutou katoa, mai i tōku Whenua o Aotearoa Tuia ki runga, Tuia ki raro, ka Rongo to pō ka rongo te ao Nō reira, tēnā ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New strategy unifies all-of-Government approach to help Pacific languages thrive
    A united approach across all-of-Government underpins the new Pacific Language Strategy, announced by the Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio at Parliament today. “The cornerstone of our Pacific cultures, identities and place in Aotearoa, New Zealand are our Pacific languages. They are at the heart of our wellbeing,” Aupito ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Upgrades for sporting facilities ahead of FIFA Women’s World Cup
    Communities across the country will benefit from newly upgraded sporting facilities as a result of New Zealand co-hosting the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023. The Government is investing around $19 million to support upgrades at 30 of the 32 potential sporting facilities earmarked for the tournament, including pitch, lighting and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Partnership supports climate action in Latin America and Caribbean
    Aotearoa New Zealand is extending the reach of its support for climate action to a new agriculture initiative with partners in Latin America and the Caribbean. Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced a NZ$10 million contribution to build resilience, enhance food security and address the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Landmark agreement for Māori fisheries celebrates 30th year
    The 30th anniversary of the Fisheries Deed of Settlement is a time to celebrate a truly historic partnership that has helped transform communities, says Parliamentary Under-Secretary to the Minister for Oceans and Fisheries Rino Tirikatene. “The agreement between the Crown and Māori righted past wrongs, delivered on the Crown’s treaty ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government backs initiatives to cut environmental impact of plastic waste
    The Government has today announced funding for projects that will cut plastic waste and reduce its impact on the environment. “Today I am announcing the first four investments to be made from the $50 million Plastics Innovation Fund, which was set last year and implemented a 2020 election promise,” Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Call for expressions of interest in appointment to the High Court Bench
    Attorney-General David Parker today called for nominations and expressions of interest in appointment to the High Court Bench.  This is a process conducted at least every three years and ensures the Attorney-General has up to date information from which to make High Court appointments.  “It is important that when appointments ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Depositor compensation scheme protects Kiwis’ money
    New Zealanders will have up to $100,000 of their deposits in any eligible institution guaranteed in the event that institution fails, under legislation introduced in Parliament today. The Deposit Takers Bill is the third piece of legislation in a comprehensive review of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New fund to help more Pacific aiga into their own homes
    The Government has launched a new housing fund that will help more Pacific aiga achieve the dream of home ownership. “The Pacific Building Affordable Homes Fund will help organisations, private developers, Māori/iwi, and NGOs build affordable housing for Pacific families and establish better pathways to home ownership within Pacific communities. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • More than 100,000 new Kiwis as halfway point reached
    Over 100,000 new Kiwis can now call New Zealand ‘home’ after the 2021 Resident Visa reached the halfway point of approvals, Minister of Immigration Michael Wood announced today. “This is another important milestone, highlighting the positive impact our responsive and streamlined immigration system is having by providing comfort to migrant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Maniapoto Claims Settlement Bill passes third reading – He mea pāhi te Maniapoto Claims Settl...
    Nā te Minita mō ngā Take Tiriti o Waitangi, nā Andrew Little,  te iwi o Maniapoto i rāhiri i tēnei rā ki te mātakitaki i te pānuitanga tuatoru o te Maniapoto Claims Settlement Bill - te pikinga whakamutunga o tā rātou whakataunga Tiriti o Waitangi o mua. "Me mihi ka ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • 50,000 more kids to benefit from equity-based programmes next year
    Another 47,000 students will be able to access additional support through the school donations scheme, and a further 3,000 kids will be able to get free and healthy school lunches as a result of the Equity Index.  That’s on top of nearly 90% of schools that will also see a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Healthy Active Learning now in 40 percent of schools across New Zealand
    A total of 800 schools and kura nationwide are now benefitting from a physical activity and nutrition initiative aimed at improving the wellbeing of children and young people. Healthy Active Learning was funded for the first time in the inaugural Wellbeing Budget and was launched in 2020. It gets regional ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech at 10th meeting of the Friends of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty
    Kia Ora. It is a pleasure to join you here today at this 10th meeting of the Friends of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty. This gathering provides an important opportunity to reiterate our unwavering commitment to achieving a world without nuclear weapons, for which the entry into force of this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Earthshot Prize Innovation Summit 2022
    Kia ora koutou katoa Thank you for the invitation to join you. It’s a real pleasure to be here, and to be in such fine company.  I want to begin today by acknowledging His Royal Highness The Prince of Wales and Sir David Attenborough in creating what is becoming akin ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New accreditation builds capacity for Emergency Management Volunteers
    Emergency Management Minister Kieran McAnulty has recognised the first team to complete a newly launched National Accreditation Process for New Zealand Response Team (NZ-RT) volunteers. “NZ-RT volunteers play a crucial role in our emergency response system, supporting response and recovery efforts on the ground. This new accreditation makes sure our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Govt strengthens trans-Tasman emergency management cooperation
    Aotearoa New Zealand continues to strengthen global emergency management capability with a new agreement between New Zealand and Australia, says Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty. “The Government is committed to improving our global and national emergency management system, and the Memorandum of Cooperation signed is another positive step towards ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Christchurch Call Initiative on Algorithmic Outcomes
    Today New Zealand, the USA, Twitter, and Microsoft, announced investment in a technology innovation initiative under the banner of the Christchurch Call.  This initiative will support the creation of new technology to understand the impacts of algorithms on people’s online experiences.  Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms play a growing role in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • JOINT PR: Trans-Tasman Cooperation on disaster management
    Hon Kieran McAnulty, New Zealand Minister for Emergency Management Senator The Hon Murray Watt, Federal Minister for Emergency Management Strengthening Trans-Tasman cooperation on disaster management issues was a key area of focus when Australia and New Zealand’s disaster management ministers met this week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • More transparency, less red-tape for modernised charities sector
    The Charities Amendment Bill has been introduced today which will modernise the charities sector by increasing transparency, improving access to justice services and reducing the red-tape that smaller charities face, Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector Priyanca Radhakrishnan said. “These changes will make a meaningful difference to over 28,000 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Pacific visas reopened to help boost workforce
    Work continues on delivering on a responsive and streamlined immigration system to help relieve workforce shortages, with the reopening of longstanding visa categories, Immigration Minister Michael Wood has announced.  From 3 October 2022, registrations for the Samoan Quota will reopen, and from 5 October registrations for the Pacific Access Category ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Queen Elizabeth II Memorial Day Bill passes into law
    The Bill establishing Queen Elizabeth II Memorial Day has passed its third reading. “As Queen of Aotearoa New Zealand, Her Majesty was loved for her grace, calmness, dedication, and public service. Her affection for New Zealand and its people was clear, and it was a fondness that was shared,” Michael ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New investor migrant visa opens
    The new Active Investor Plus visa category created to attract high-value investors, has officially opened marking a key milestone in the Government’s Immigration Rebalance strategy, Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash and Immigration Minister Michael Wood have announced. “The new Active Investor Plus visa replaces the previous investor visa categories, which ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New wharekura continues commitment to Māori education
    A new Year 1-13 designated character wharekura will be established in Feilding, Associate Minister of Education Kelvin Davis announced today. To be known as Te Kura o Kauwhata, the wharekura will cater for the expected growth in Feilding for years to come. “The Government has a goal of strengthening Māori ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • National minute of silence for Queen Elizabeth II
    A national minute of silence will be observed at the start of New Zealand’s State Memorial Service for Queen Elizabeth II, at 2pm on Monday 26 September. The one-hour service will be held at the Wellington Cathedral of St Paul, during a one-off public holiday to mark the Queen’s death. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Speech to the Climate Change and Business Conference
    Tēnā koutou i tēnei ata. Good morning. Recently I had cause to say to my friends in the media that I consider that my job is only half done. So I’m going to take the opportunity of this year’s Climate and Business Conference to offer you a mid-point review. A ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government enhances protection for our most-productive land  
    Enhanced protection for Aotearoa New Zealand’s most productive land   Councils required to identify, map, and manage highly productive land  Helping ensure Kiwis’ access to leafy greens and other healthy foods Subdivision for housing on highly-productive land could still be possible in limited circumstances  The Government has today released a National ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Kieran McAnulty to attend Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
    Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty will travel to Brisbane this week to represent Aotearoa New Zealand at the 2022 Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. “This conference is one of the most important meetings in the Asia-Pacific region to progress disaster risk reduction efforts and increase cooperation between ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trade and Agriculture Minister to travel to India and Indonesia
    Minister of Trade and Export Growth and Minister of Agriculture Damien O’Connor will travel tomorrow to India and Indonesia for trade and agricultural meetings to further accelerate the Government’s growing trade agenda.  “Exploring ways we can connect globally and build on our trading relationships is a priority for the Government, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Poroporoaki: Cletus Maanu Paul (ONZM)
    E te rangatira Maanu, takoto mai ra, i tō marae i Wairaka, te marae o te wahine nāna I inoi kia Whakatānea ia kia tae ae ia ki te hopu i te waka Mātaatua kia kore ai i riro i te moana. Ko koe anō tēnā he pukumahi koe mō ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pacific Wellbeing Strategy sets clear path to improve outcomes for Pacific Aotearoa
    Strengthening partnerships with Pacific communities is at the heart of the Government’s new Pacific Wellbeing Strategy, Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio announced today. “Working alongside communities to ensure more of our aiga and families have access to the staples of life like, housing, education, training and job opportunities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Jobs on the horizon for more than 1,000 rangatahi
    Following on from last week’s Better Pathways Package announcement and Apprenticeship Boost 50,000th apprentice milestone, the Government is continuing momentum, supporting over 1,000 more rangatahi into employment, through new funding for He Poutama Rangatahi. “Our Government remains laser focused on supporting young people to become work ready and tackle the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ/AU partnership to bring world-class satellite positioning services
    Land Information Minister Damien O’Connor today announced a joint Trans-Tasman partnership which will provide Australasia with world-leading satellite positioning services that are up to 50 times more accurate, boosting future economic productivity, sustainability and safety.  New Zealand and Australia have partnered to deliver the Southern Positioning Augmentation Network (SouthPAN), with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt helps small businesses get paid on time
    The Government is adding to the support it has offered New Zealand’s small businesses by introducing new measures to help ensure they get paid on time. A Business Payment Practices disclosure regime is being established to improve information and transparency around business-to-business payment practices across the economy, Small Business Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Economy grows as tourism and exports rebound
    The economy has rebounded strongly in the June quarter as the easing of restrictions and reopening of the border boosted economic activity, meaning New Zealand is well placed to meet the next set of challenges confronting the global economy. GDP rose 1.7 percent in the June quarter following a decline ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Ambassador to China announced
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced the appointment of Grahame Morton as New Zealand’s next Ambassador to China. “Aotearoa New Zealand and China share a long and important relationship,” Nanaia Mahuta said. “As we mark 50 years of diplomatic relations between our nations, we are connected by people-to-people links, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 1.4 million hectares of wilding pine control work in two years
    1.4 million hectares of native and productive land have been protected from wilding conifers in the past two years and hundreds of jobs created in the united efforts to stamp out the highly invasive weeds, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor said. Speaking today at the 2022 Wilding Pine Conference in Blenheim, Damien ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • HomeGround – “a place to come together, a place to come home to”
    After 10 years’ hard mahi, HomeGround - Auckland City Mission's new home – is now officially open. “It’s extremely satisfying to see our commitment to providing a safety net for people who need housing and additional support services come together in a place like HomeGround, to create a better future ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago