- Date published:
7:08 pm, May 21st, 2022 - 66 comments
Categories: australian politics, elections - Tags:
Here we go.
It is election day today in Australia and so far there have been some decidedly underhand tactics adopted by the right.
The Liberal Party has been sending out texts to voters in New South Wales and Victoria suggesting that there is a refugee boat on the way.
The use of vulnerable people, minority communities to stoke fear, division, demonisation for political gain.
My deepest apologies & solidarity with our beautiful Australian-Sri Lankan community for being used in this way.
We must be better than this. https://t.co/jJgL1HL1hm pic.twitter.com/TjZXc54jpY
— Craig Foster (@Craig_Foster) May 21, 2022
And this has been described as an election stunt.
Ok so there are 2 boats, one intercepted by the Sri Lankan navy & one by the Australian Border Force. I was told April 26 there would be 2 boats coming, allegedly facilitated by Sri Lankan authorities, due to arrive by May 21. Described as an “election stunt”. I couldn’t verify.
— Karen Middleton (@KarenMMiddleton) May 21, 2022
And the Liberal National Party has been busted putting up fake signs suggesting that the Greens do not want Labor candidates to receive second preferences.
LIES BUSTED: the Libs are trying to put up fake signs in Higgins. Already reported to AEC & police.
Don’t fall for the Libs’ desperate tricks. Our How to Votes say Vote 1 Greens & preference climate indies & Labor ahead of Libs.
Our actual how to vote: https://t.co/yCGfVFfSG6 pic.twitter.com/NXTHuR9Ti2
— Australian Greens (@Greens) May 20, 2022
For election coverage the Guardian has an election live page.
And the ABC has this page.
I do not recommend Murdoch media coverage unless the Liberals are getting dealt to.
If you want to read as scathing a review of Scomo's reign then check this out:
The first paragraph says:
"The government Scott Morrison leads has achieved less in three terms than perhaps any other in Australian history. What it has accomplished has largely made the country worse. It has dismantled an effective carbon price, antagonised China, cowed the national broadcaster, diminished the broadband network. It has confected a national circus on gay rights, alienated allies, rigged the tax system to ensure a country that will be less fair, where there will be less money for health and education."
I think it's frightening the Australian people would vote for Scumo and his loose band of grifters.
But Australia, like Britain, is an inherently conservative place so the socially responsible left has to fight twice as hard
Its many years since I crossed the ditch but I did once live in Australia for nine months. Rightly or wrongly, I came back to NZ with the distinct impression that an awful lot of Aussies were stupid.
If that is a more forthright interpretation of "inherent conservatism" then so be it. 🙂
My former brother in law was a fair dinkum Aussie. Just before a general election there, it might have been 2004, I tried to talk to him and his mates about politics over a few beers. They shut it down pretty quickly. I am pretty sure they then went out and voted liberal because of the abbos.
I am a strong supporter of female political preferences.
On that small review of his qualities, I’m happy to hear the word ‘former’ used.
Scummo and his cronies have been exceptionally awful so those conservatives are holding their noses and voting Labor.
A blistering review here: Life inside a lie | The Saturday Paper
The circus outside some Australian polling booths with voting placards being thrust nearly into people's faces tells me that our rule of no campaigning on election day is a pretty good rule.
The importance of the Senate result (won't be known for a week or more).
I don't know enough about Auspol to know what is happening, but twitter's pretty interesting right now.
Not being eligible to vote in either Aus or NZ I must confess I have not been motivated to follow the details of this campaign.
But a swing to the Greens does not surprise me much for two reasons; one is that the idea most people have of Queenslanders being ingrained reactionary conservatives sailed past it's used by date about a decade ago.
Secondly the primary vote for both the Liberals and Labour continues to trend downward from one election to the next while all the minors are gaining.
It's kind of hard to declare an explicit swing from Liberal to Green (or any swing) in Oz because of the way that preferences work there – in particular who comes 2nd vs. 3rd in the initial vote may determine who wins – in the end it's really just FPP-lite.
One thing to remember because of the way that preferences are distributed Labor and the Coalition both got roughly 30% on first votes …. but Labor likely attracted another 12% from Green voters' preferences … that means that roughly 1/4 of the final votes that Labor got were from Green voters.
With the rise of the teals (blue-greens) in the middle there's a real risk of a 3rd middle party arising over the next term that may attract Greens' preferences next time around – Labor are going to have to deliver to the Green voters who put them into power if they want to be reelected next time around
Scorched earth hitting home or something else?
rising flood waters more than scorched earth perhaps.
Looks like a historic shift to Labor. They have 51% of the vote counted so far. Will probably be able to govern alone, if not there are enough Independents or Greens to form a government.
Federal election 2022 live updates: ABC projects Labor to win government, Anthony Albanese to be next prime minister – ABC News
Oh No! ScoMos a Gonno!
There is a meme out there for it:
Anthony Albanese is the new Prime Minister of Australia
What is Teal?
It seems that a lot of the so called Teal seats are formerly conservative Liberal held seats.
Seems, there are some things that adversely affect rich people as badly as poor people.
They are climate change and covid-19.
Both Challengers the Liberal led coalition government of Scott Morrison was perceived as being utterly unprepared and disorganised to meet
I wrote about the teal candidates a week ago.
They have done really well. Mostly women independent candidates in the 23 candidates. The main commanality is that they are all focused on climate change action.
The ones who have won appear to be concentrated in wealthy urban liberal seats, plus at least one suprise in a rural National held seat.
Yes that was a good call. Contrary to what most people here imagine I have encountered relatively few Australians who are opposed to action on CC – across the whole political spectrum.
As a result we now see both right and left wing candidates – Independents in conservative seats and Greens in urban city seats doing very well.
The interesting question now is that given the ALP is well short of a majority – is exactly how this balance of power between these minors will play out.
The Liberal caucus was not a great place for a centrist female, especially if a social policy liberal. And the Liberals have been appalling on GW and environment issues. It was a warning to Liberals of the ScoMo, Abbott and Dutton type – this is just the beginning.
Julia Gillard is probably having a wee chuckle to herself at the result. It will be interesting to see how the new intake of women MPs are treated, though it seems as if only female Prime Ministers are fair game.
Julia Gillard will be in line for a high profile government appointed position.
That was my first thought too Anne, I hope it's a good 'un.
Julie Bishop also.
Interesting that Climate Change was the key issue in the Oz election.
Labor's win, and the huge green vote for the Greens and the Teals, was based on policies such as $20 billion to connect solar and wind power as part of rewiring the electricity grid. From the Labor Party policy:
"The Morrison Government refuses to deliver the modern energy network we need to unlock Australia’s renewable energy potential, cut electricity prices and grow jobs in energy and other sectors.
Only Labor will build an electricity network designed for this century – one which accounts for the rise of renewables as the cheapest new energy source, and links them up to the grid."
Jacinda and Grant should take note; a similar policy for NZ next year would be a vote winner while meeting CC commitments.
oil prices by this time next year might have sharpened voters and politician's minds considerably. Food shortages too.
Catastrophic floods and horrendous fires seasons in recent times have clearly had their impact on the Australian political psyche. It seems some 30% of the voters did not vote for the two main parties. That is very significant.
Australia is already in place for both substantive cost reduction in generation prices and transmission cost increases to smarten the grid,for increased renewables.
Prices are forecast to decrease for the years 21/24 something that is inverse to NZ.
More of this type of stuff!
The ALP will probably get to 76 which is what you need for a majority Red. For instance I think they will take Griffith rather than the Greens. Labor does better than the Greens in postal votes which have not been counted yet. They are certainly not "well short of a majority"
It is still in the balance though.
(This comment was in reply to a comment from Redlogix that seems to have vaporised)
Sorry I had a network connection screwup that put my comment in the wrong place and I have just moved it up to reply to Lynn.
Yes you are right – it is still possible for the ALP to get to a majority. Personally that would be my preferred outcome – right now Australia like everywhere else in the world – is facing dramatic shifts in the geopolitical landscape and cohesive government that is not forced to negotiate with fractious partners would be a head start.
They have 72 seats and need 76 for a majority.
There are 13 more seats to be decided. Pretty good odds of getting a majority.
In the senate (which is important for any government to have a workable majority in Australia), it stands at: 25 Labor, 12 Green, with 6 too close to call & 39% counted.
The senate uses a staggered double term system, so that; of each of the six States’ 12 senators, 6 are up for election this time (except for the two territories whose 2 senators each; 4 total, only get a single term before facing re-election). 76 total, therefore 39 needed for a majority.
Pocock has a good chance on preferences. 37 + 1.
Cheers Temp…I was looking for the Senate results…the Australian Electoral Commission site is useless.
That also looks like good news for the Left-Labor will have to do deals with the Greens to get things through the Senate.
Even if they don't – there are good potential partners in the Greens and the Teal independents, to be able to ensure they get their policy through.
While Albanese didn't strike me as an outstanding leader (in the little that I saw/heard/read about him) – that means that people were pretty much voting for the Labour policy platform (rather than the person) and, undoubtedly, against Morrison.
Look forward to seeing what changes in Oz over the next 18 months or so.
I do think that the shift to the independent candidates (even under the STV system which really favours a 2 party environment) is really interesting. Many of them are ex Coalition (and wonder if this signals that the rump is shifting in a more conservative/right direction – the new leader, ex-Morrison, will give everyone a strong signal on this).
Wondering if the Teals are the beginning of a new centrist party? It must be tempting for them to work together.
Wondering if the Teals are the beginning of a new centrist party? It must be tempting for them to work together.
Well yes – they are already funded as a group.
They would be wise to get some sort of agreement with the Greens nevertheless. Rupert's minions will be digging/manufacturing dirt on Labour, Green and Teal MPs as we speak, trying to force resignations and by-elections. Albo will likely need some padding beyond 76.
It's a relief that Albo won, but it would be naive to expect a lot from the ALP. They are likely to be pretty sh*t on the things that really matter.
Excellent however to see McGowan's insistence on having a proper NZ-like response to Covid has paid off handsomely for federal Labour in WA. That could be something to rub the Nat's noses in here.
Agree on WA AB. ScoMo mercilessly attacked the WA state policy of closed borders, which actually kept Covid out of WA longer than NZ.
The (Labor) State premier, McGowan, stuck to his guns on the border and was extremely popular for this. Hence the 10% plus swings against ScoMo and his mates in WA.
Suck it up, Matty.
It’s guna be confusing.
There’s a brain drain to Aussie…because they want to live under a government keen to work with PM Ardern and where the tide is shifting to urgent action on climate change all over the political spectrum, ahead of the reactionary alarmist crew.
"that there is some kind of deliverance and they are spared the horror of living under a Labor regime."
In the absence of any sense of delivery of deliverance, probably through the absence in itself of any banjo players of any note on the Right, Mr Hooton will have to accept reality.
That means that he will be calling for all Kiwis expecting to brain-drain to Oz post-Covid to stay at home and keep away from that 5 year Labor regimentation.
But hang on. There's already a Labour regime here in place for five years! Oh what a cleft stick. Should I stay or should I go?
Will we instead see Aussies coming here? But no- same cleft stick.
Whatever happens, remember Rob Muldoon's wisdom on emigration to Australia- it increases the IQ of both countries!
Seriously though, even though Hooton is in jest, there is a basic belief evident in his twittering- that Labour governments are regimes, authoritarian and controlling, dancing Cossacks and all.
That bit of propaganda needs rebuffing. I mock it.
Others might choose to quote the figures of lack of corruption here, the lack of restraints upon business, the figures on government approval and business confidence, and post them against the figures from genuine authoritarian regimes.
Then we can see the exaggeration of the Right's propaganda- its reliance on hyperbole and misinformation, its focus on fear and greed, its inherent falsehoods- for what they are.
Oh BooHoo Hooten. Our rellies are having a celebratory dinner tonight.
They have yet to count preferences but Pocock and the Labour/Labor incumbent (ACT Senate) are ahead and the sitting Liberal senator appears to be on his way out.
They really need MMP in Australia!
Looking at the results:
Votes per seat won:
One Nation: >538,429 (got no seats)
United Australia: >462,764 (got no seats)
Good point. Although if they had MMP with the 5% threshold, neither One Nation or United Australia would have a single seat.
Yep, the price of democracy.
Labour and Greens 44.9% Coalition and One Nation/United 44.6% atm. But One Nation/United would have to win an electorate seat to be in it.
Though the preference system is kind of a de facto coalition and avoids some of the worst injustices of vote splitting in electorates. That makes that analysis a little misleading.
Labor should understand its debt to the Greens quite clearly in many electorates.
A good analysis of the outcome so far here.
From that analysis, the real winners on the night were the Greens and the Teals!
Which bodes well for the Greens here in NZ, as an awareness of the immediacy of climate change sinks in.
I think it was a long time coming. And it shows that CC is not an issue owned by the far left – in my daily encounters here it seems pretty widely spread across the political spectrum.
The ironic thing is that while it was the pro-coal Nats who held out against CC action for so long and successfully marginalised any Libs they didn't like – they themselves have held onto all their seats while the Libs have paid the price. Elections sometimes suck.
A small Aussie bloke in glasses who is a collegial leader…a bit of the Michael Joseph Savage there? We need the next leader of Australia to be a good, if not a great one. So many big tests coming up.
Also a bad day to be an evangelical bully bovver boy conservative leader would you say?
Who are the teals? Partly the bankers and types like Turnbull or something different entirely?
And to cap off this good news thread – we might also pause to be very grateful indeed that we live in such times where the transfer of power can be achieved without force or bloodshed.
In broad historic terms this is virtually miraculous.
So Frydenburg lost because he fell out with a key funder who wanted the policy of no new coal mines? Anyone that worked up about gas exploration and mining in New Zealand?
And no ScMo puts Peter Dutton in the picture for the lib leadership.
It won't be someone worked up about gas exploration and mining here, it'll be someone getting worked up about farmers getting a subsidised ride for their emissions and their business isn't.
There's a few contenders, and with large marketing budgets…
Yes – that is the big downside of Frydenburg's loss for the Liberals. Under Dutton there is no obvious way for them to pivot back to the moderates and rebuild. Because the Nationals held onto all of their seats and may even gain one more, this leaves a very thin electoral space for the Liberals to contend under a Dutton leadership. Yet they have very few other good choices.
Note also that despite this being a massive ALP win politically – their primary vote dropped substantially. The win really came because the Liberals lost even more.
Just over a third of the electorate did not vote for the collation or labour.
Long may the trend continue.
One nation in each contested electorate vote – fell as well, so a good night all round.
The Frydenberg Holmes à Court falling out is quite something.
″Josh can f— off,” Simon Holmes à Court explodes in the most memorable moment of our 90-minute lunch in Melbourne’s Hawthorn, where he lives and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is fighting for his, and his government’s, political life.
Can Ardern generate a decent agenda with Labor other than the 501 problem?
There's plenty else to pack down on. Even Annette King the Ambassador could give her a list on that.
We are living in a time of crise
The Climate Crisis
The Housing Crisis
The Cost of Living Crisis
The time for half measures has past
In Australia, (and New Zealand), the political Party with the courage to address these three crisis with immediate aggressive action, right now, will win its place in history.
Solving the the last two crise on that list will give that political party an unimpeachable mandate to solve the First.
In the end it boiled down to trust. morrison was a b ig man with a little mind and no guts and the longer things unfolded around him the more it became apparent that his time was up. ditto for dutton.