The big dry

Written By: James Henderson - Date published: 10:17 am, March 13th, 2013 - 77 comments
Categories: climate change, disaster, energy, farming, sustainability, water - Tags: drought

We’re now experiencing the worst drought in the North Island in recorded history. It comes just five years after the previous severe drought and there was a lesser one in between. Let’s not beat around the bush, it’s climate change. Bill English came very close on Monday to admitting that climate change induced-droughts will make bailouts unsustainable.

Take a look at this first graph. The soil moisture deficit is the amount of extra moisture that would be needed in the soil before it was wet enough that it couldn’t hold more (and the water would flow through the soil into streams, through into rivers etc). The grass won’t grow if there’s much of a deficit.

In vast swathes of New Zealand, the deficit is now literally off the charts. To get back to field capacity, those red areas need more than, sometimes much more than, 130mls of rain plus whatever amount is lost without being absorbed into the soil. Large parts of the country have seen less than 10mls in the past month.

And it’s not just the farmers. Our hydrolake system doesn’t have a hell of a lot of capacity compared to other hydro-dependent nations, which means we’re very sensitive to inflows. Late last year, the hydrolakes were being spilled because they were too full. Now… look at the drop-off in inflow. Half of the average for this time of year.

And, suddenly, with a sixth of the water that is usually in the hydrolakes at this time of year missing, it’s shaping to be a dry year unless rain comes quick and falls in the right places.

Unfortunately, the tail-end of Cyclone Sandra now looks like it’ll hit the West Coast and Fiordland, good for Manapouri and Te Anau which are at very low levels but missing the worst drought zones. Lake Taupo is rapidly heading towards the bottom of its operating level and, if that happens, it’ll be trouble. We’re already seeing higher spot power prices.

But the important thing is this isn’t just about this year. This is climate change, this is an accelerating trend of more extreme weather events- more droughts, more floods, more storms, more heatwaves. We’ve built our energy and agricultural systems around a relatively stable climate and now we’ve kicked it over on its arse for no good reason. And it’s we who will pay the price.

77 comments on “The big dry ”

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johnm 1

13 March 2013 at 10:40 am

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/mar/07/australia-angry-summer-climate-change

A Picture is worth a thousand words, if you view above link there’s a graphic showing how climate change has hit Australia this year too: ” In just 90 days 123 records broken throughout Australia” Categories of extreme climate events are: The four categories: RECORDS AS FOLLOWS: MAX TEMP, FLOOD, DAILY RAINFALL, HEATWAVE. Tim Flannery said:
“I think one of the best ways of thinking about it is imagining that the baseline has shifted. If an athlete takes steroids, for example, their baseline shifts, they’ll do fewer slow times and many more record-breaking fast times. The same thing is happening with our climate system. As it warms up, we’re getting fewer cold days and cold events and many more record hot events.”

NE Australia is getting extreme rainfall and flooding, the rest of the continent is drying out and getting more heat.
Here in Wellington I observed we had last Winter some freakishly warm weather. In June I observed a warmish southerly coming through! and the chilling down one day reversed itself and temps when up. Winter is coming later and later it seems and then we not having a real Winter. During the 00s the climate got wetter now like the 90s it’s getting drier again?
Despite the Tararuas apparently we are running out of water here in Wellington! 🙁 !

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8417298/Wellingtons-water-supply-now-at-crisis-level
- johnm 1.1
  
  13 March 2013 at 11:55 am
  
  ” Canada losing its seasons – ‘We are changing seasonality. The north is becoming like the south, losing its sharp contrasts between the four seasons.’”
  
  http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/03/canada-losing-its-seasons-we-are.html
  
  “UXBRIDGE, Canada (IPS) – “Canada is not a country, it’s winter,” Canadians say with pride. But the nation’s long, fearsome winters will live only in memory and song for Canadian children born this decade.
  
  Winters are already significantly warmer and shorter than just 30 years ago. The temperature regimes and plant life of the south have marched more than 700 kilometres northward, new research shows.
  
  The frozen north is leaving and won’t be back for millennia due to heat-trapping carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels, experts say.
  
  By 2091, the north will have seasons, temperatures and possibly vegetation comparable to those found today 20 to 25 degrees of latitude further south, said Ranga Myneni of the Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University. “
- Rogue Trooper 1.2
  
  13 March 2013 at 1:20 pm
  
  🙁
vto 2

13 March 2013 at 10:42 am

The central south island hydro lakes were all full to overflowing following the massive rainfalls of early january.

They are now too low.

Somethign collosally seriously wrong has happened with the management of this – and it is management, not the weather. Those lakes can supply for a significant period of time from full without rain.

I wondered many years ago, soon after privatisation of the system had begun, whether it is in the best interests of the power companies to have a lower lake level and hence lower supply to drive up the price. Seen it many times. Lakes are full equals excess supply and lower prices, so drain the lakes. Needs investigating. Although some would call it a conspiracy…
- mickysavage 2.1
  
  13 March 2013 at 10:49 am
  
  But VTO, corporates would never dream of doing something like this …
  - vto 2.1.1
    
    13 March 2013 at 11:16 am
    
    Yep. Corporates screw people.
    
    Check the river flows for the Waitaki through the month of January and into Feb and then compare it to the Rakaia, just north.
    
    Both catchments received giant inflows. You can see the Rakaia dropped down quickly over one week, indicating the natural state of flow.
    
    Then you can see the Waitaki, which continued with high outflow right through to the end of January. In other words, the Waitaki system was drained by the power companies, and now it is too low.
    
    Very serious.
    
    Here is teh Rakaia flow http://ecan.govt.nz/services/online-services/monitoring/river-flows/Pages/river-flow-chart.aspx?SiteNo=168526
    
    And here is the Waitaki flow http://ecan.govt.nz/services/online-services/monitoring/river-flows/Pages/river-flow-chart.aspx?SiteNo=71104
    
    Check it and weep.
    - vto 2.1.1.1
      
      13 March 2013 at 11:23 am
      
      What would be worth asking (is it a Parliamentary question?) is why the hydro lakes were drained through the month of January.
      
      Why? Especially in the middle of an el nino period of drought… Why?
      - Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1.1
        
        13 March 2013 at 6:42 pm
        
        Pump power prices up in preparation for sale
        
        trader 2.1.1.1.1.1
        
        13 March 2013 at 10:51 pm
        
        Your logic is flawed, stick to something you understand, low lake levels are bad news for meridian despite high prices as generation volumes drop and purchase costs increase. Check 2008 results to see this in action
        
        vto …
        
        14 March 2013 at 9:06 am
        
        mr trader, that is fine, and don’t hold myself out as an expert. So perhaps you can explain why water was released to such an extent that the lakes are now too low?
        
        And, no I wont stick to just things I know. You can if you like though.
        
        Colonial Viper …
        
        14 March 2013 at 10:21 pm
        
        High prices are an excellent test of what the market will tolerate, Mr Trader
  - JK 2.1.2
    
    13 March 2013 at 6:38 pm
    
    I seem to remember something similar happening in Auckland some years back, Mickey S – we had a water shortage because someone had let a dam drain out (for repairs or something) and then came pressure to allow the water company to tap into the Waikato River …….. of course, nothing deliberate about the drain out !! so they said.
scotty 3

13 March 2013 at 10:59 am

National will use the current crisis as a reason to fast track irrigation schemes ,ditch WCOs etc..
I expect the hard sell to start any day now ,
Probably when the Head of the Hawaiian dairy farmers lobby group, is back onboard.
- MrSmith 3.1
  
  13 March 2013 at 5:11 pm
  
  You bet your boots they will scotty, this government is all about disaster capitalism.
  
  Personally I would let the Farmers burn in their those gum boots.
muzza 4

13 March 2013 at 11:13 am

You can’t talk about climate change, withough talking about geo-engineering, which has been happening now for a long time, and is accelerating the impacts of what people refer to as climate change. Its been documented, filmed, talked about in the MSM even.

It would be appropriate for those who write articles which then aim at climate change, to include geo-engineering in analysis, and the weather manipulation via aerosole spraying of NZ airspace.
- TheContrarian 4.1
  
  13 March 2013 at 11:18 am
  
  Chemtrails? Oh my. Less head injury, more thinking, chief.
  - muzza 4.1.1
    
    13 March 2013 at 11:34 am
    
    No mate, geo-engineering, look it up, and then try looking up occasionally.
    
    Its been going on a very long time, and sticking your head in the sand does not change that!
    - TheContrarian 4.1.1.1
      
      13 March 2013 at 11:36 am
      
      I know what geo-engineering, have read and seen the works of David Keith, watched both Why/What in the World are They Spraying. Have spent some years reading about it Muzza.
      
      And none of it adds up to a wide ranging, global conspiracy I’m afraid. Instead of ‘looking up’ look down to the science books.
      - muzza 4.1.1.1.1
        
        13 March 2013 at 11:58 am
        
        Fair enough TC, everyone is welcome to their views and opinions, I respect that.
        
        I will however say that in this instance, those who think its not going on, are so very incorrect, and the longer those same people can’t understand/accept it, the further past the point of no return it all leads.
        
        Sooner than later, its all coming out, new scientist ran an article about it not long ago, and featured it on the cover, here is a link to it.
        
        http://www.google.co.nz/imgres?q=new+scientist+geoengineering+cover&um=1&hl=en&safe=vss&sa=N&biw=1052&bih=698&tbm=isch&tbnid=HVos5lWCkG71UM:&imgrefurl=http://peterhousehold.blogspot.com/2012/09/geo-epanic.html&docid=29Wyiy21HRlY8M&imgurl=http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3DYmH_nAJ80/UF0GPME4qyI/AAAAAAAAAiA/i8aRemQAahc/s1600/002.jpg&w=1207&h=1600&ei=s7I_UbHiKYnmkAXC9YHwBQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=106&vpy=99&dur=7797&hovh=259&hovw=195&tx=161&ty=92&page=1&tbnh=152&tbnw=121&start=0&ndsp=24&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0,i:81
        
        Perhaps you think the financial *situation* is also not a *wide ranging global conspiracy*!
        
        TheContrarian 4.1.1.1.1.1
        
        13 March 2013 at 12:03 pm
        
        The New Scientist article was about geo-engeering, not about it currently happening.
        
        The only ‘evidence’ of geo-engeering actually taking place comes from highly questionable sources and no credible evidence has ever been put forward.
        Most of the ‘evidence’ is so laughably bad it is embarrassing.
        
        muzza …
        
        13 March 2013 at 12:17 pm
        
        Of course it would not be going on without your knowledge, or that of OAB below either /sarc (in case you needed the tag)!
        
        So what are credible sources on this topic to you TC? And once you have given them, can you also provide the list of funders, investment, major shareholders etc for the *credible sources*…
        
        On ya!
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        13 March 2013 at 1:18 pm
        
        “So what are credible sources on this topic to you TC?”
        
        Not Alex Jones for a start. Or rense.com. Or some guy photographing clouds and covering his backyard in vinegar when the Slyphs don’t respond.
        
        One Tāne Huna …
        
        13 March 2013 at 12:27 pm
        
        Nah, Contrarian – despite the conspiracist drivel and paranoia you’ll find plenty of reputable sources on the subject.
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        13 March 2013 at 1:21 pm
        
        Of course, small scale cloud seeding and the like has been practiced and there is real talk about geo-engineering implications but what the chemtrail nuts are talking about is a worldwide conspiracy and that it has been going since around 1996.
        
        muzza …
        
        13 March 2013 at 1:58 pm
        
        The fact that you point to Alex Jones shows where you are at with all this, I have never linked to AJ, I said the same to others here, when they have done exactly what you just have, by pulling out the AJ reference, eroneous!
        
        It was also predictable you were going to state what the sources were NOT, as opposed to what they are, you disqualify yourself right there champ.
        
        Easier to throw names like AJ around without addressing my questions, which amounts to, who controls the funds supply, controls the research, and the data, its that simple.
        
        Seeding began around 1915, so imagine what is possible now, just take a look at the tech advances we lay people get to use every day, then imagine what else could be going on, which is kept far away from the plebs, its like enough information is not fed through the media, sheesh!
        
        Why would you think that chem trails, and geo-engineering are mutually exclusive, I read your words that way, feel free to answer this one!
        
        Don;t be scared, be interested and try to get informed, its your future too!
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        13 March 2013 at 2:04 pm
        
        “Don;t be scared, be interested and try to get informed, its your future too!”
        
        I think I have already proven myself informed. I was being facetious with Alex Jones. I don’t think Chemtrails and geo-engineering are unrelated.
        
        Here is what I said:
        
        “Of course, small scale cloud seeding and the like has been practiced and there is real talk about geo-engineering implications but what the chemtrail nuts are talking about is a worldwide conspiracy and that it has been going since around 1996.”
        
        There is no worldwide spraying campaign nor is there any evidence of it.
        
        muzza …
        
        13 March 2013 at 3:29 pm
        
        I don’t think Chemtrails and geo-engineering are unrelated
        
        Ok, you think that much, take it a little further, whats your view on what they are?
        
        There is no worldwide spraying campaign nor is there any evidence of it.
        
        If you’re so sure there is not a campaign, and how would you actually know (you clearly are not paying attention to the sky, do not spend time in various countries paying attention to their skys, do not fly planes, do not follow commercial flights, or do not read very well), then no evidence would or could exist in your mind would it, but thats not the case at all!
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        13 March 2013 at 3:43 pm
        
        “whats your view on what they are?”
        
        umm, contrails maybe?
        
        “you clearly are not paying attention to the sky, do not spend time in various countries paying attention to their skys, do not fly planes, do not follow commercial flights, or do not read very well”
        
        Paying attention to the sky is meaningless – I visited every chemtrails page I can find, watched a multitude of videos on the topic, I understand the physics of aeronautics to a layman degree and how wing vertices and plane exhaust works and there is nothing to suggest there is any worldwide conspiracy outside of make-believe.
        
        When considering the validity of a conspiracy one needs to think of who is involved. In this instance it would 1000’s of airport workers, pilots, chemical manufacturers, scientists as well as often competing and at war governments all complicit in a single worldwide conspiracy. That alone should raise alarm bells as to the chemtrails veracity.
        
        muzza …
        
        13 March 2013 at 4:10 pm
        
        So you chose to not address the questions again TC, thats a number of times in this conversation alone…
        
        Paying attention to the sky is meaningless
        
        You have to be joking with that comment, we are talking about something where the action is in the sky, goodness me!
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        13 March 2013 at 4:28 pm
        
        I haven’t dodged any questions.
        
        Paying attention to the sky is meaningless because what are you looking? Clouds. You can’t test them, you can only look at them and apply your own interpretation which is meaningless when discussing the validity of chemtrails.
        
        That cloud/contrail looks funny =/= evidence of chemtrails
        
        muzza …
        
        14 March 2013 at 10:10 am
        
        That cloud/contrail looks funny =/= evidence of chemtrails
        
        Sure it does, if you know what to look for, or what you’re looking at!
        
        Assume you have not been on a plane, (commercial flight) at 35k feet watching multiple planes lay trails offshore (up west coast of the south island), flying routes/formations which are not those of commercial airlines.
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        14 March 2013 at 3:15 pm
        
        “Assume you have not been on a plane, (commercial flight) at 35k feet watching multiple planes lay trails offshore (up west coast of the south island), flying routes/formations which are not those of commercial airlines.”
        
        How did you know they weren’t flying on flying routes/formations which are not those of commercial airlines? How did you know they were commercial arliners? How did the fact the air traffic controller not notice this plane flying on a route it shouldn’t? How about the pilot of the plane you were on, wouldn’t he have known the plane wasn’t on the right route?
        
        “Sure it does, if you know what to look for, or what you’re looking at!”
        
        That cloud/contrail looks funny =/= evidence of chemtrails.
        
        Te Reo Putake …
        
        14 March 2013 at 7:24 pm
        
        I’m with muzza; keep watching the skies!
        
        muzza …
        
        14 March 2013 at 10:05 pm
        
        How did you know they weren’t flying on flying routes/formations which are not those of commercial airlines?
        
        Don’t know much about commercial airline routes etc do you!
        
        How did you know they were commercial arliners?
        
        I did not say they were, I said they were not – See the note above about you not knowing much about commercial flight paths…
        
        How did the fact the air traffic controller not notice this plane flying on a route it shouldn’t?
        
        No idea , I was not in contact with ATC at the time, as I was not flying the plane,
        
        How about the pilot of the plane you were on, wouldn’t he have known the plane wasn’t on the right route?
        
        When I asked the cabin crew to to check with the pilot what the plane which was flying over/infront of/higher than our plane was, the response I was, the pilot did not see anything. When I pointed out the second plane, the response from the pilot was, its an ATA Turbo Prob (go read up, that response was ridiculous, given height, speed, direction, of what I was filming)
        
        Go learn to fly planes, you’ll learn something about the weather at the same time, and navigation, and other useful skills which will allow you know when something up there is out of place – Spend a lot of years doing so, its worth it!
        
        Te Reo Putake …
        
        14 March 2013 at 10:19 pm
        
        It’d be nice if you’d answer the first question, Muz. How did you know they weren’t on commercial routes? You have the advantage, as you are the witness, can you add some context?
        
        muzza …
        
        14 March 2013 at 10:30 pm
        
        Voice – The planes had been doing laps, well off shore, and at significantly higher altitude than the plane I was on, off the west coast of the south island…
        
        Commercial flights do not traditionally perform in flight laps (unless in a landing holding pattern, or perhaps while dumping fuel), nor is there a commercial flight route headed north south, or south north off the west coast of the south island!
        
        Te Reo Putake …
        
        14 March 2013 at 10:48 pm
        
        Ok, you’re at 35k and they’re above you doing tricks. Where were you heading?
        
        muzza …
        
        14 March 2013 at 11:02 pm
        
        I was heading up the west coast back to AKL, and as a result of the flight I was on, was already on the western most (north/south) commercial flight path, for jet engined planes in NZ airspace.
        
        McFlock …
        
        14 March 2013 at 11:15 pm
        
        Maritime surveillance?
        
        Te Reo Putake …
        
        14 March 2013 at 11:21 pm
        
        Ok, I’m happy to take your word for it, but it sounds pretty unlikely that anything was above you, other than planes heading for Oz, and as you have nothing more than an incident you cannot explain, it doesn’t really add anything to the debate, does it?
        
        One possibilty does occur to me, fighters or transports from ours or the Aussie airforce on an exercise. I say Aussie, coz I don’t think we’ve got anything capable of getting up above 35k anymore!
        
        muzza …
        
        15 March 2013 at 8:23 am
        
        Ok, I’m happy to take your word for it, but it sounds pretty unlikely that anything was above you, other than planes heading for Oz,
        
        Voice, people will know what these planes were doing (whatever it was), and where they were from, and where they were headed.
        
        and as you have nothing more than an incident you cannot explain, it doesn’t really add anything to the debate, does it?
        
        Actually I’ve explained it well, and have video and photos of what I saw. When I compare it to the 5 x I have seen and filmed over planes spraying over AKL, I know what was going on off the west coast, and the options of what its being done for, will be few.
        
        I would rather this was NOT happening, but it is, there are too many people nationally and globally filming and documenting what they are seeing, and its only a matter of time before it will have to come out, although in reality, it already has been dripped into the media in various ways for years.
        
        The NZ Air Force , last checked had 2 Boeing 757 planes which can fly above 35k feet.
        
        One Tāne Huna …
        
        15 March 2013 at 8:39 am
        
        I’m buying shares in tinfoil.
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        15 March 2013 at 11:33 am
        
        A whole shitload of assumptions from Muzza.
        
        Commercial jets have many routes they can fly depending on weather on air traffic.
        
        Are you a pilot muzza?
        
        One Tāne Huna …
        
        15 March 2013 at 11:38 am
        
        It’s spelled “pillock”.
        
        muzza …
        
        15 March 2013 at 11:54 am
        
        TC -An advantage of reading, learning and do-ing, is that it allows one to understand the realities of what they are talking about.
        
        Another advantage is NZ’s geographic location, in relation to commercial flight routes, in that there are limitations as to the airlines, flight paths etc which fly domestically and internationally, around, through and across NZ.
        
        Perhaps ask yourself this TC – Based on my descriptions above, which departure and arrival points, on a commercial flight route, might airlines be flying off the west coast of the south island, in a north/south heading?
        
        Antarctica/South Pole perhaps, or would that be an extended route into Invercargill International Airport – And yes I fly planes!
        
        @ OAB – Not sure what your contribution is all about, but its not changing/preventing anything which is going on!
        
        Colonial Viper …
        
        15 March 2013 at 11:58 am
        
        Even older 747’s can cruise at 42,000 or 43,000 feet no worries. It’s a waste of fuel as throttles have to be kept forward, but quite do-able.
        
        The question is, if an ordinary commercial flight passenger noticed weird behaviour from planes thousands of feet above…what do you think the pilot and co-pilot of that commercial flight thought about it???
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        15 March 2013 at 12:01 pm
        
        “An advantage of reading, learning and do-ing, is that it allows one to understand the realities of what they are talking about.”
        
        indeed – but if you are reading only bullshit your only going to learn bullshit. I have read and watched the same chemtrail things you have muzza.
        
        All you have is assumptions. Because YOU don’t understand why a plane might be in the place you saw it you assume there is no other explanation other than the one you believe to be true.
        
        “Based on my descriptions above, which departure and arrival points, on a commercial flight route, might airlines be flying off the west coast of the south island, in a north/south heading?”
        
        You know I have flow to Auckland on several different routes dependent on weather and air traffic. I have flow up the East Coast from Queenstown as well as the West coast. All these are irrelevancies though and in no way prove any chemtraling whatsoever.
        
        A you a commercial pilot Muzza? Passenger jets?
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        15 March 2013 at 12:03 pm
        
        “The question is, if an ordinary commercial flight passenger noticed weird behaviour from planes thousands of feet above…what do you think the pilot and co-pilot of that commercial flight thought about it???”
        
        And air traffic control, as well as our own military. And don’t say “the response I was, the pilot did not see anything” because the pilot has radar and would be aware of other planes in the vicinity.
        
        muzza …
        
        15 March 2013 at 12:23 pm
        
        TC – You are not answering the questions, so this is where I leave it until you do – Read further up for my descriptions about what response I got from the pilot etc…
        
        indeed – but if you are reading only bullshit your only going to learn bullshit. I have read and watched the same chemtrail things you have muzza.
        
        I was referring to learning how to fly planes!
        
        All you have is assumptions. Because YOU don’t understand why a plane might be in the place you saw it you assume there is no other explanation other than the one you believe to be true.
        
        No, I understand well that those planes were not flying commercial routes, and as stated I have pictures of the trails they were laying. When I match this to the footage taken around NZ, and that I have taken in AKL many times, I come to my own conclusions based on what I have seen only. AFAIAA, my footage taken while on a commercial flight is the only footage of its type. There will be more like it around, I imagine, but I have not seen any!
        
        “Based on my descriptions above, which departure and arrival points, on a commercial flight route, might airlines be flying off the west coast of the south island, in a north/south heading?”
        
        You know I have flow to Auckland on several different routes dependent on weather and air traffic. I have flow up the East Coast from Queenstown as well as the West coast. All these are irrelevancies though and in no way prove any chemtraling whatsoever.
        
        TC – Have you flown into Auckland well off the west coast of the south island, turned around done laps, then headed west again!!!
        
        A you a commercial pilot Muzza? Passenger jets?
        
        I do not have a commercial license.
        
        McFlock …
        
        15 March 2013 at 2:31 pm
        
        Muzz,
        Assuming that your identification of the altitude, type and location/flight pattern of the aircraft is correct, here are some reasons an aircraft might be loitering/ “flying laps”:
        
        training flight (especially nav point-to-point)
        Weather/scientific data gathering
        Scenic flight
        Fisheries patrol
        Antarctic flight recalled en route due to poor weather at SP
        
        Even anti-piracy surveillance for a low profile but high-value cargo ship (e.g. nuclear fuel in transit)
        
        Oh, and “chem trails”, of course.
        
        muzza …
        
        15 March 2013 at 2:39 pm
        
        McFlock, there are plenty of reasons, I agree.
        
        Thing is, what I saw is what I have seen over AKL, and elsewhere and for those in AKL central now, go take a look at whats happenig in the sky, its messed right up!
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        15 March 2013 at 2:40 pm
        
        “TC – You are not answering the questions”
        
        For the second time – what haven’t I answered?
        
        “I was referring to learning how to fly planes!”
        
        What does knowing how to fly have to do with anything?
        
        “No, I understand well that those planes were not flying commercial routes. ”
        
        How do you know they weren’t commercial routes? Explain how they were not commercial routes?
        
        “and as stated I have pictures of the trails they were laying”
        
        You have pictures of contrails and pictures are evidence of anything more than contrails.
        
        “I come to my own conclusions based on what I have seen only”
        
        Your own conclusions are not evidence of anything.
        
        “TC – Have you flown into Auckland well off the west coast of the south island, turned around done laps, then headed west again!!”
        
        So you saw this from a plane? How long were you in the plane for? You must have been near motionless to observe this from the sky. Not to mention there has been a lot of this going on since the Canturbury earthquake:
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeromagnetic_survey
        Not to mention the government has had planes survying for mining in recent years.
        
        A picture and a personal anecdote is not evidence, Muzza.
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        15 March 2013 at 2:42 pm
        
        “go take a look at whats happenig in the sky, its messed right up!”
        
        I am not in Auckland but I am going to take stab and say what you are looking at are clouds.
        
        muzza …
        
        15 March 2013 at 2:52 pm
        
        Unanswered, an example below.
        
        “TC – Have you flown into Auckland well off the west coast of the south island, turned around done laps, then headed west again!!”
        
        What does knowing how to fly have to do with anything?
        
        Yeah, thats where I leave you to it TC!
        
        TheContrarian …
        
        15 March 2013 at 2:59 pm
        
        Muzza – you asked that question in the same post as accusing me of not answering questions. So I ask again – which previous questions had I not answered?
        
        And lets review your evidence:
        
        Photo
        Personal anecdote
        Opinions
        
        Yeah…mind-blowing…
        
        One Tāne Huna …
        
        15 March 2013 at 3:01 pm
        
        Do not feed the Tar Baby.
    - One Tāne Huna 4.1.1.2
      
      13 March 2013 at 11:50 am
      
      weather manipulation via aerosole spraying
      
      It’s public knowledge that this happened in New Zealand from Nov – Feb 1995 – 1996! Shock! Horror!
      
      accelerating the impacts of climate change… [patronising drivel omitted]
      
      Got a link for that, tinfoil?
    - TheContrarian 4.1.1.3
      
      13 March 2013 at 11:53 am
      
      “talked about in the MSM even”
      
      Usually in the “what crazy people believe” section
- Jenny 4.2
  
  13 March 2013 at 10:07 pm
  
  Of course the great champion of geo-engineering to solve climate change was…. wait for it……. George Bush.
  
  Of course George Bush being an oil millionaire had something to do with it.
  
  Geo-engineering the perfect con job to allow CO2 emissions to continue without any constraint.
  
  The true beauty of futuristic pie in the sky geo-engineering schemes is that they are to be left to the future.
  
  Geo-engineering is the future solution to climate change and always will be.
ad 5

13 March 2013 at 12:30 pm

Electricity retailers can still use the “hot water switch” during times of high electricity shortage. So water companies get to use sprinkler bans.

But should Watercare and other major water and wastewater retailers put up their unit prices to ensure people use less water during this time? After all there is apparently plenty of price elasticity to petrol use.
georgecom 6

13 March 2013 at 1:14 pm

Geo-engineering to offset the impacts of climate change?

Groan. Large mirrors in space and such like rubbish?

Maybe we could better concentrate our efforts on trying to slow down climate change. Dealing with the root cause rather than symptoms.

If I had a large nail sticking through my foot that was causing me pain, I’d rather that a doctor concentrated on trying to remove the nail ratehr than on prescribing pain killers to deal with the discomfort.
Rogue Trooper 7

13 March 2013 at 1:19 pm

Dom Post Today (front page) 20 Days of water left for Wellington, Hutt and Porirua if no sufficient rain
Drought-affected dairy stock being dried-off two months early-“big drop in gross income”
in HB, Agricultural Contractors cannot drill paddocks; soil too hard.
(guess NAct will add this event onto the earthquake as rationales for poor economic performance)
read that Eurozone in a “triple-dip” and projected to remain in recession until 2014
- RedLogix 7.1
  
  13 March 2013 at 9:14 pm
  
  Well that ’20 days left’ is a based on a worst-case scenario if nothing changes. Probably we’ll get by for 30-40 days, but if we wait for that long to do something the horse will have well bolted by then. At that point the taps will run dry. And stay that way until it rains.
  
  More probably there will be ‘water rationing’, ie total outside water use bans, pressure reductions, or actually turning zones off for most of the day, implemented within several weeks. These measures will make a big difference.
  
  I’d offer an informed estimate that the chances of actually running Wellington out of water completely is maybe 5-10%, not high, but not negligible either. This is wholly new territory that New Zealand is not well prepared for…
  - Colonial Viper 7.1.1
    
    13 March 2013 at 9:34 pm
    
    5% probability of your nation’s capital running dry in the next month or two is pretty damn scary.
    
    Why aren’t the water saving edicts coming into force right now?
    - RedLogix 7.1.1.1
      
      13 March 2013 at 9:49 pm
      
      There is already a total sprinkler ban in force as from the last weekend.
      
      But so far there was not a lot of point in more draconian measures because demand could be supplied from what was in the rivers while storage was still full. ie we could have saved water but we had no place to put it and it would have just been ‘lost’ down the river anyway.
      
      However the rivers and aquifers are dropping rapidly and to meet current demand levels this will force us to start consuming our limited storage within 5-7 days. At that point really stringent restrictions become useful and appropriate.
      
      People will be asked to start using much less, the kind of really intrusive measures that the Australians are used to. For instance; if you are going to have a shower, put the plug in the bath, turn the shower on, get wet. Turn it off. Soap up. Then rinse off. Get out dry off, and use the water in the bath on your indoor pot plants.
      - Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1.1
        
        14 March 2013 at 10:24 pm
        
        Almost like living in Adelaide.
Georgy 8

13 March 2013 at 1:27 pm

“Let’s not beat around the bush, it’s climate change. ”

When you say this do you mean it is because the climate is changing naturally, or do you mean it is changing because of human intervention [i dont mean geo-engineering, rather pollution and mismanagement of resources]?

The newspapers report this drought as the worst drought in out history – when did droughts prior to 2008 occur? Were they caused by “climate change”?
- TheContrarian 8.1
  
  13 March 2013 at 1:34 pm
  
  I am not sure it is possible to point to a single event in isolation and say “this is solely due to man-made climate change”.
  
  We look for trends and the trends would strongly suggest the the climate she is a changin’
- Colonial Viper 8.2
  
  13 March 2013 at 9:43 pm
  
  The newspapers report this drought as the worst drought in out history – when did droughts prior to 2008 occur? Were they caused by “climate change”?
  
  Yes there were droughts prior to 2008.
  
  No, none of them appear to have been as severe or as widespread as this one.
AFEWMORETHEKNOWTHETRUTH 9

13 March 2013 at 4:45 pm

I’m totally gobsmacked at the depths of ignorance about Climate Change shown on these postings. You are either in 100% denial or you’re just plain fing stupid guys! 🙁
- Jenny 9.1
  
  13 March 2013 at 10:13 pm
  
  Good to see you back, Few. However I would turn down the outrage a tad. And turn up the facts and figures that you are so good at.
  
  (leave the outrage to me)
  - Jenny 9.1.1
    
    13 March 2013 at 10:15 pm
    
    Any suggested solutions are good too.
    - johnm 9.1.1.1
      
      14 March 2013 at 9:49 am
      
      Just my opinion Jenny re climate change. There isn’t a solution positive feedbacks and the existing inertia (that sounds good! 🙂 ) of the previous 30 years of emissions mean we’re headed for a new stable hot state (re. Lovelock) for the Planet, it’s out of our hands now. Adaptation is the way to go.
  - johnm 9.1.2
    
    14 March 2013 at 9:45 am
    
    Hi Jenny
    
    Re AFEWMORETHEKNOWTHETRUTH. The wording is different to afewknowthetruth, so we can conclude they’re are not the same person, though the opinion would be the same if it were him !
trickledrown 10

13 March 2013 at 5:33 pm

where is Steve Wrathall hiding in his rat hole!
In October he was saying NZ will mis out on the drought that has effected large swathes of the planet.
That we were lucky to have plentiful rain fall where the hell is he now!
- MrSmith 10.1
  
  14 March 2013 at 9:18 am
  
  He’s probably at church again questioning his beliefs.
  - Rogue Trooper 10.1.1
    
    14 March 2013 at 2:29 pm
    
    Thats’ funny Mr